Unlike the teams I've profiled that would appear to be sellers, the Cubs did not add salary this season. In fact, they dropped about $14M in payroll from 2013, continuing a downward trend that began after about $144M budgeted for 2010. With at least five free agents pending, the Cubs certainly will be attempting to have a similar July that they did last year when they cashed in Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Scott Hairston, and Alfonso Soriano. Theo Epstein and company are shrewd in trades, especially when there is a seller's market like with Garza.
On the plus side for the Cubs, they have shown improvement so far. Their .425 winning percentage is better than the last two seasons and their run differential of -14 gives the impression that the Cubs are rather competitive. And there is a beginning of a core in Chicago that should help them get better provided they can find talent to surround those players. That's where the trade deadline comes in. While buyers will often end up regretting the deals they make if it doesn't result in a ring, sellers can grab young, team-controlled talent.
Would the Cubs make attractive partners for Atlanta? First, let's look at the pending free agents, the players the Cubs would feel the most pressure to trade rather than possibly get nothing depending on a qualifying offer.
Amazingly, no one wanted Jason Hammel this offseason. He didn't find employment until right before the season when the Cubs locked him up to an one-year, $6M contract. Hammel had been a very good starter for the Orioles in 2012 with a 3.29 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, but his numbers were poor last season. Unlike other average starters, Hammel's issue was that he wasn't an innings eater. He threw 170+ in three consecutive seasons for the Rockies between 2009-10, but his average in the five years since becoming a starter was 156 innings. Teams will pay for less than spectacular talent, but they expect innings. One of Hammel's teammates in Chicago, Edwin Jackson, has made an entire career of just throwing innings.
Since joining Chicago, Hammel has had probably his best run of pitching of his career. The 31 year-old has a 2.98 ERA and 3.11 FIP to match it. If that wasn't good enough, his WHIP of 1.01 is ridiculous considering his career and he already has one more strikeout than he did last season. Hammel looks like he's headed to a big pay day. Will it come after a couple of months with a Braves jersey on? Well, the Braves are linked to Hammel and with the injury to Gavin Floyd and recent string of "meh" outings from Aaron Harang, the interest would appear genuine. Hammel would seem easier to acquire than Jeff Samardzija, but can we buy into Hammel? His numbers show no real sign of a possible return to the mean, except that he does have the best control of his career (1.8 BB/9 compared to 3 BB/9 in his career). However, the Braves aren't the only team that could use Hammel. Unlike others, the Braves don't have a deep minor league system. Hammel would seem like a tough player to acquire without getting very creative and possibly adding a third team.
Emilio Bonifacio would also be a target, but he carries a certain amount of risk. Bonifacio has yet to begin baseball activities after being placed on the DL on June 13th with a strained right oblique. One of the most difficult injuries to get a read on is oblique injuries, as our old friend Tim Hudson knows. Provided he starts to progress, Bonifacio should be targeted by many teams for his flexibility, speed, and switch-hit bat. He was a big pick-up for the Royals last year as they tried to make a run toward a Wild Card spot and he hit .285 with a .700 OPS and 16 steals. Bonifacio has experience at all three outfield positions along with all of the infield spots except for first. He's hitting .261 and is overexposed as a starter. As a backup, he fits a nice 25th man role.
Chicago's other free agents are unlikely to attract much attention from Atlanta. They have no need for catcher John Baker and the other two, Nate Schierholtz and Carlos Villanueva, have been pretty bad this season. Offensively, outside of Bonifacio, there would seem to not be a decent fit. None of their players fit much of a role for the Braves.
Of course, of guys the Braves can team-control past this season, Samardzija would appear to intrigue the Braves. Averaging 8.6 K's every nine innings with a 1.20 WHIP, the former Notre Dame receiver has been talked about more about his win-loss record than anything. He recently declined an extension offer and the Cubs might want to cash in a huge chip when his value is at its highest. Problem with Samardzija for the Braves is that they have been burned by the big trade before. Giving up a lot of talent and not being able to sign Samardzija to a long-term contract would be a tough pill to swallow. Of course, if the Braves win it all, it becomes definitely easier to swallow that pill with a smile. Still, I can't see the Braves making the midseason blockbuster trade in this case.
They could instead seek out the price on lefty James Russell. With one more year of team control through arbitration left for Russell, he would appear to be a good target, though his numbers this season are not tremendous against lefties (.220/.304/.415). However, he's been very good of late and in his last 19 games, he has pitched 15 innings with only one unearned run allowed to go with eight hits, four walks, and 12 K's. He is a very good groundball pitcher. While his numbers are good against righties this season, it probably is a little flukish and Russell should be kept from facing lefties. If the Cubs don't want to deal Russell, they might be more open to trading Wesley Wright, who they got last season from the Astros. He's similar to Russell as a LOOGY, though his K rate is a little down. Either pitcher would appear to fit a roll and keep the Cubs from possibly paying $4M or so for two LOOGY's next season.
The Cubs seem like a perfect target for a two birds, one stone type trade, the kind of move the Braves made two years to get Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson from the Cubs. Bonifacio and one of the lefties would appear to fill two holes for the Braves, pending Bonifacio's health. It would probably be less demanding of a trade than the Padres and Diamondbacks would demand for Seth Smith and Joe Thatcher, though the quality of the package is significantly less, too. Either way, the Cubs are a team to keep an eye on for Atlanta. I doubt the Braves make a move this July for a starter, but the Cubs have other pieces the Braves might be keeping an eye on. While reports will talk about how the Braves's scouts are at Cubs games to see a starter, it might be the other roster pieces they see as potential fits that the scouts are really there to see.
Showing posts with label Trade Winds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade Winds. Show all posts
Monday, June 30, 2014
Friday, June 27, 2014
Trade Winds: The Disappointing Colorado Rockies
To look at other recent blogs on possible teams to look at in the trade market before July 31st, click here.
Like so many clubs, including both the Diamondbacks and Padres, the Rockies added salary this year and have been disappointing. Despite an extra $20M, Colorado has been stuck in reverse since April when they are 16-13. Since? 19-30. Part of that is their offense has come a little back to Earth, but it remains very, very good. The bigger reason is a pitching staff that has gone from an ERA in the low 4's to an ERA well over 5.00 since. Even great offenses can't make up for that.
It's unlikely that they'll get into the rearview mirrors of either the Dodgers or Giants, and thus, they probably won't make any noise in the Wild Card race. Therefore, it's another summer of trading pieces to get younger and hopefully better for the future in Denver.
The Braves could hypothetically have interest in high-priced pending free agents like Jorge De La Rosa or Michael Cuddyer, but there are some problems there. (1) Like I said, they're high priced as both are still owed half of at least $11M. Without financial help, it would appear that would put eliminate the Braves' interest on both. (2) If it didn't, both could attract a lot of interest from other teams willing to give the Rockies significant talent. (3) Even if the Braves are still interested in Cuddyer, he's hurt with a separated shoulder and will likely be out until at least late July.
Maybe a reliever and former Braves' second rounder in 1998 could intrigue the Braves. Matt Belisle never pitched for Atlanta because they sent him to the Reds to acquire Kent Mercker in 2003. Since 2009, he has pitched in 359 games with the Colorado Rockies, but is short of the 10/5 designation that would make it more difficult to trade for him. While his ERA the last two years has been well above 4.00, Belisle has had a 3.23 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.95 K/BB since the beginning of 2013. He recently turned 34 and is headed to free agency after the season. He's expensive for a middle reliever and the Braves might want some added cash from Colorado's side on what's left of the $4.25M he is owed for the remainder of the season. Won't provide much in terms of set-up work, but Belisle can be counted on for a pretty good inning and is durable.
Sticking with the Rockies bullpen, closer LaTroy Hawkins has been around since 1957, but he continues to pitch pretty well even though he can't strike out anyone (3.7 K/9 this season). He has locked down 14 saves, though has rarely been needed since April. I don't know if I would want him to pitch the seventh inning, but he adds depth on the cheap. He's due about half of his $2.25M and he has a club option for 2015, but it's a cheap buyout of $250K.
Outside of those two relievers, Colorado doesn't seem like a great place to target for improvement. They have a lot of young players who are just entering arbitration, which means they're still cheap and team-controlled. And neither Belisle or Hawkins should be a primary target. Both could be useful, but they are more depth than anything and while depth is important, it won't provide a dramatic change for the Braves.
Like so many clubs, including both the Diamondbacks and Padres, the Rockies added salary this year and have been disappointing. Despite an extra $20M, Colorado has been stuck in reverse since April when they are 16-13. Since? 19-30. Part of that is their offense has come a little back to Earth, but it remains very, very good. The bigger reason is a pitching staff that has gone from an ERA in the low 4's to an ERA well over 5.00 since. Even great offenses can't make up for that.
It's unlikely that they'll get into the rearview mirrors of either the Dodgers or Giants, and thus, they probably won't make any noise in the Wild Card race. Therefore, it's another summer of trading pieces to get younger and hopefully better for the future in Denver.
The Braves could hypothetically have interest in high-priced pending free agents like Jorge De La Rosa or Michael Cuddyer, but there are some problems there. (1) Like I said, they're high priced as both are still owed half of at least $11M. Without financial help, it would appear that would put eliminate the Braves' interest on both. (2) If it didn't, both could attract a lot of interest from other teams willing to give the Rockies significant talent. (3) Even if the Braves are still interested in Cuddyer, he's hurt with a separated shoulder and will likely be out until at least late July.
Maybe a reliever and former Braves' second rounder in 1998 could intrigue the Braves. Matt Belisle never pitched for Atlanta because they sent him to the Reds to acquire Kent Mercker in 2003. Since 2009, he has pitched in 359 games with the Colorado Rockies, but is short of the 10/5 designation that would make it more difficult to trade for him. While his ERA the last two years has been well above 4.00, Belisle has had a 3.23 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.95 K/BB since the beginning of 2013. He recently turned 34 and is headed to free agency after the season. He's expensive for a middle reliever and the Braves might want some added cash from Colorado's side on what's left of the $4.25M he is owed for the remainder of the season. Won't provide much in terms of set-up work, but Belisle can be counted on for a pretty good inning and is durable.
Sticking with the Rockies bullpen, closer LaTroy Hawkins has been around since 1957, but he continues to pitch pretty well even though he can't strike out anyone (3.7 K/9 this season). He has locked down 14 saves, though has rarely been needed since April. I don't know if I would want him to pitch the seventh inning, but he adds depth on the cheap. He's due about half of his $2.25M and he has a club option for 2015, but it's a cheap buyout of $250K.
Outside of those two relievers, Colorado doesn't seem like a great place to target for improvement. They have a lot of young players who are just entering arbitration, which means they're still cheap and team-controlled. And neither Belisle or Hawkins should be a primary target. Both could be useful, but they are more depth than anything and while depth is important, it won't provide a dramatic change for the Braves.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Trade Winds: The Hapless San Diego Padres
Like many teams this offseason, the San Diego Padres saw their payroll increase dramatically with the help of a new media deal. However, the bang for the buck has been miserable so far for the Padres. No offense has been anemic, even the Braves offense, and despite a park that helps produce great pitching, the Padres can't keep the score low enough for their offense to score enough runs.
Even though the Padres were not expected to be big contenders in the West, this level of poor play has already cost Josh Byrnes his job in his second stint as a major league GM. Clearly, the Padres are in rebuilding mode and they would like to cash in with some talent for their unproductive ballclub. Could the Braves be intrigued?
Let's start with the future free agents. Closer Huston Street is making $7M this season and has a 0.96 ERA over 28 games. In his third season with the Padres, Street is controllable with a $7M team option for next season. Even if he has been as productive as he ever has been, I can't see the Braves being very interested in that salary or asking price teams would have to agree to to acquire Street. There is already expected to be a lot of interest for Street from teams with worse late-inning options than the Braves.
Back in the NL West, corner outfielder Seth Smith has been superb, OPSing over .900. Those numbers get even better when you take out his at-bats against lefties, who he simply can't hit. In the middle of a one-year, $4.5M contract that covers his final year of arbitration, could the Braves be intrigued by adding Smith? I'm sure they could be. He would simply replace the often ineffective Jordan Schafer on the team, though it would force Jason Heyward into a position where he is the backup center fielder. Nevertheless, Smith could provide a legitimate alternative to playing B.J. Upton night-in, night-out and provide some left-handed thunder to the bottom of the order. Like Street, though, other teams could be very excited about the prospect of trading for Smith, which theoretically would increase the Padres' bargaining position, even if people like Omar Minaya are making the call. I would file Smith under the "would love it, not sure if truly possible."
While the Padres have a few other pending free agents, I don't think they would interest the Braves. And I don't buy them being interested in Joaquin Benoit due to the price, both in money and package of prospects. On the flip-side, while the Braves might be interested in relievers Dale Thayer or lefty Alex Torres, the Padres probably don't want to trade the cheap, team-controlled players without getting prospects in return. Maybe if the Braves were willing to offer a prospect of significance for Smith, they would demand Thayer or Torres and the Padres would agree because of the prospect they are getting in return. However, short of Lucas Sims or Jose Peraza, I don't know of a prospect that the Braves would put on the table.
With all of that in mind, I would be majorly surprised if the Braves agree with a deal with the Padres.
Even though the Padres were not expected to be big contenders in the West, this level of poor play has already cost Josh Byrnes his job in his second stint as a major league GM. Clearly, the Padres are in rebuilding mode and they would like to cash in with some talent for their unproductive ballclub. Could the Braves be intrigued?
Let's start with the future free agents. Closer Huston Street is making $7M this season and has a 0.96 ERA over 28 games. In his third season with the Padres, Street is controllable with a $7M team option for next season. Even if he has been as productive as he ever has been, I can't see the Braves being very interested in that salary or asking price teams would have to agree to to acquire Street. There is already expected to be a lot of interest for Street from teams with worse late-inning options than the Braves.
Back in the NL West, corner outfielder Seth Smith has been superb, OPSing over .900. Those numbers get even better when you take out his at-bats against lefties, who he simply can't hit. In the middle of a one-year, $4.5M contract that covers his final year of arbitration, could the Braves be intrigued by adding Smith? I'm sure they could be. He would simply replace the often ineffective Jordan Schafer on the team, though it would force Jason Heyward into a position where he is the backup center fielder. Nevertheless, Smith could provide a legitimate alternative to playing B.J. Upton night-in, night-out and provide some left-handed thunder to the bottom of the order. Like Street, though, other teams could be very excited about the prospect of trading for Smith, which theoretically would increase the Padres' bargaining position, even if people like Omar Minaya are making the call. I would file Smith under the "would love it, not sure if truly possible."
While the Padres have a few other pending free agents, I don't think they would interest the Braves. And I don't buy them being interested in Joaquin Benoit due to the price, both in money and package of prospects. On the flip-side, while the Braves might be interested in relievers Dale Thayer or lefty Alex Torres, the Padres probably don't want to trade the cheap, team-controlled players without getting prospects in return. Maybe if the Braves were willing to offer a prospect of significance for Smith, they would demand Thayer or Torres and the Padres would agree because of the prospect they are getting in return. However, short of Lucas Sims or Jose Peraza, I don't know of a prospect that the Braves would put on the table.
With all of that in mind, I would be majorly surprised if the Braves agree with a deal with the Padres.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Trade Winds: The Gritty Arizona Diamondbacks
Last year, I would usually just pick a player or two who fit the profile of a guy they Braves might trade for. Even profiled Scott Downs before he was acquired (link). I'm going to change it up a little and instead look at teams that are in rebuild mode that could look to sell off assets. Let's start with the disappointing Diamondbacks. After a 4-1 loss to the Giants in a rubber game of a three-game matchup, the D'Backs are 15 back in the West and also 15 games under .500. The struggles are despite a rise in payroll of about $15M from last season. No wonder they called in the Bullpen Ruiner to help.
Certainly, the D'Backs are sellers, but are any of their future free agents attractive for the Braves? Well, starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy has been miserable in his second season with the D'Backs. After a nice return to form in Oakland, McCarthy leads the league this season in a few unfortunate categories - losses, hits allowed, earned runs allowed, fan tears. While his FIP of 4.06 with an xFIP of 2.97 is much better than his 5.38 ERA and we should expect his HR/FB rate of 22% to fall, McCarthy can't be counted on to provide much use to a team trying to compete. That said, if they wanted to take Dan Uggla off our hands - done. McCarthy is due about half of $10.25M for the remainder of the season.
Another upcoming free agent is corner infielder Eric Chavez, who is making $3.5M. Also in his second season with the D'Backs, the often-injured former A is back on the DL with a sore/sprained left knee that could limit any trade interest. It's a shame because he still has plus power and good on-base skills coming off the bench. Could be an intriguing option if he shows himself to be healthy. Also of interest is left-hander Joe Thatcher, who I profiled last year when he was a Padre. The Diamondbacks surrendered Ian Kennedy to get Thatcher and a minor league reliever at the deadline last year, but that's when they were trying to compete. Now out of the race, they themselves might try to get something for the LOOGY. The Braves need to address their bullpen, especially since Luis Avilan has not been nearly as productive as he was last season. Thatcher is very limited (righties OPSing .826 against him), but he gets left-handers out (.231 OBP). That means he gets Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche out. He gets Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out. He gets...I'm sure the Marlins have left-handed hitters and when I learn what their names are, I bet Thatcher can get them out, too. Of all the Diamondbacks the Braves could target, Thatcher is likely the most useful. Due about half of $2.375M, he won't break the bank.
But maybe the Braves would prefer attainable players. Guys who they could pencil into their plans for 2015. I'm inclined to believe Brad Ziegler (due at least $6M after this season) is out of their price range, but if the Braves think the amount of talent Thatcher would require is similar to Oliver Perez, the Braves might go for the former Mets starter instead. Like Thatcher, I profiled him last year when he was a Mariner. Perez is due $2.5M next season, but the problem here is that unlike Thatcher, Perez has been hit pretty regularly by left-handers this year. They're hitting .271/340/.396 against Perez, OPSing about .150 points higher than righties. Since moving to the pen, Perez has not been especially hard on left-handers in the LOOGY role. While that could theoretically improve his value as he can be left in against right-handed batters, shutting down left-handed hitters is a bigger concern for the Braves so Thatcher would appear to be the better target.
Outside of the players mentioned, I don't see the Diamondbacks as a place to try to mine for gold. They have a lot of long-term contracts or guys just hitting arbitration who could prove to be expensive. More pressing is that many of those same guys have been a big reason why the Diamondbacks have sucked this season so why would the Braves be interested? I would definitely kick the tires on Thatcher, though.
Certainly, the D'Backs are sellers, but are any of their future free agents attractive for the Braves? Well, starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy has been miserable in his second season with the D'Backs. After a nice return to form in Oakland, McCarthy leads the league this season in a few unfortunate categories - losses, hits allowed, earned runs allowed, fan tears. While his FIP of 4.06 with an xFIP of 2.97 is much better than his 5.38 ERA and we should expect his HR/FB rate of 22% to fall, McCarthy can't be counted on to provide much use to a team trying to compete. That said, if they wanted to take Dan Uggla off our hands - done. McCarthy is due about half of $10.25M for the remainder of the season.
Another upcoming free agent is corner infielder Eric Chavez, who is making $3.5M. Also in his second season with the D'Backs, the often-injured former A is back on the DL with a sore/sprained left knee that could limit any trade interest. It's a shame because he still has plus power and good on-base skills coming off the bench. Could be an intriguing option if he shows himself to be healthy. Also of interest is left-hander Joe Thatcher, who I profiled last year when he was a Padre. The Diamondbacks surrendered Ian Kennedy to get Thatcher and a minor league reliever at the deadline last year, but that's when they were trying to compete. Now out of the race, they themselves might try to get something for the LOOGY. The Braves need to address their bullpen, especially since Luis Avilan has not been nearly as productive as he was last season. Thatcher is very limited (righties OPSing .826 against him), but he gets left-handers out (.231 OBP). That means he gets Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche out. He gets Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out. He gets...I'm sure the Marlins have left-handed hitters and when I learn what their names are, I bet Thatcher can get them out, too. Of all the Diamondbacks the Braves could target, Thatcher is likely the most useful. Due about half of $2.375M, he won't break the bank.
But maybe the Braves would prefer attainable players. Guys who they could pencil into their plans for 2015. I'm inclined to believe Brad Ziegler (due at least $6M after this season) is out of their price range, but if the Braves think the amount of talent Thatcher would require is similar to Oliver Perez, the Braves might go for the former Mets starter instead. Like Thatcher, I profiled him last year when he was a Mariner. Perez is due $2.5M next season, but the problem here is that unlike Thatcher, Perez has been hit pretty regularly by left-handers this year. They're hitting .271/340/.396 against Perez, OPSing about .150 points higher than righties. Since moving to the pen, Perez has not been especially hard on left-handers in the LOOGY role. While that could theoretically improve his value as he can be left in against right-handed batters, shutting down left-handed hitters is a bigger concern for the Braves so Thatcher would appear to be the better target.
Outside of the players mentioned, I don't see the Diamondbacks as a place to try to mine for gold. They have a lot of long-term contracts or guys just hitting arbitration who could prove to be expensive. More pressing is that many of those same guys have been a big reason why the Diamondbacks have sucked this season so why would the Braves be interested? I would definitely kick the tires on Thatcher, though.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
Trade Target - Ryan Roberts
So, back to normal. By the time this blog post is published, Atlanta probably has had six more injuries to their second baseman depth. Mark Lemke has grabbed a glove. Jeff Treadway is sitting by his phone. Keith Lockhart is ready to pop out behind third base in foul territory.
Naturally, the Braves enter the weekend with an eye on anyone who is available and competent enough to play second base. Placido Polanco is around, but has played 83 innings at second base since the beginning of 2010. Brendan Ryan has passed waivers, but are the Braves that desperate over simply starting Paul Janish? Of course, the Braves could simply just stick with Janish/Phil Gosselin until Dan Uggla returns, but how much concern is there that Uggla's pending return in a few weeks is optimistic? Doesn't seem to be any and LASIK is super common nowadays. But just the same, lazers and stuff.
Regardless, Atlanta has to be interested in an acquisition from outside the organization. Probably their best option is Ryan Roberts, who was designated for assignment by the Rays on Thursday. Roberts is owed roughly $725,000 for the rest of the season, his second year of arbitration. Known commonly as TatMan, Roberts became a regular fixture on Baseball Tonight during his 2011 run with the Diamondbacks. He slashed .249/.341/.427 with 19 homers and 18 steals while playing mostly third base. His numbers tapered off the following season and he was traded before the deadline last year to the Rays for a minor leaguer.
With the Rays, Roberts has played mostly second with some starts at third mixed in. However, he only OPS'd .658 in Tampa, failing to recapture his glory of 2011. Roberts clearly is not a tremendous player. He maxed out as a 108 wRC+ with 3.6 WAR. What's his value to the Braves?
Beyond the fact he should be cheap if he passes waivers, Roberts provides plus defense (historically, at least) at both second and third. He also has some recent playing time at first. Both this year and over his career, Roberts has been much better against lefties. He's also shown a solid bat off the bench with a career .269 average as a pinch hitter. Like Evan Gattis, he is probably better when the manager can pick the time to use him.
If the Braves are to make a move before the return of Uggla, acquiring Roberts seems like the best bet of the supposedly available players on the market. Roberts would likely be non-tendered so the Braves couldn't surrender much for him. Still, for the rest of the season, Roberts could be a nice bench piece and give the Braves depth for the playoff roster.
Naturally, the Braves enter the weekend with an eye on anyone who is available and competent enough to play second base. Placido Polanco is around, but has played 83 innings at second base since the beginning of 2010. Brendan Ryan has passed waivers, but are the Braves that desperate over simply starting Paul Janish? Of course, the Braves could simply just stick with Janish/Phil Gosselin until Dan Uggla returns, but how much concern is there that Uggla's pending return in a few weeks is optimistic? Doesn't seem to be any and LASIK is super common nowadays. But just the same, lazers and stuff.
Regardless, Atlanta has to be interested in an acquisition from outside the organization. Probably their best option is Ryan Roberts, who was designated for assignment by the Rays on Thursday. Roberts is owed roughly $725,000 for the rest of the season, his second year of arbitration. Known commonly as TatMan, Roberts became a regular fixture on Baseball Tonight during his 2011 run with the Diamondbacks. He slashed .249/.341/.427 with 19 homers and 18 steals while playing mostly third base. His numbers tapered off the following season and he was traded before the deadline last year to the Rays for a minor leaguer.
With the Rays, Roberts has played mostly second with some starts at third mixed in. However, he only OPS'd .658 in Tampa, failing to recapture his glory of 2011. Roberts clearly is not a tremendous player. He maxed out as a 108 wRC+ with 3.6 WAR. What's his value to the Braves?
Beyond the fact he should be cheap if he passes waivers, Roberts provides plus defense (historically, at least) at both second and third. He also has some recent playing time at first. Both this year and over his career, Roberts has been much better against lefties. He's also shown a solid bat off the bench with a career .269 average as a pinch hitter. Like Evan Gattis, he is probably better when the manager can pick the time to use him.
If the Braves are to make a move before the return of Uggla, acquiring Roberts seems like the best bet of the supposedly available players on the market. Roberts would likely be non-tendered so the Braves couldn't surrender much for him. Still, for the rest of the season, Roberts could be a nice bench piece and give the Braves depth for the playoff roster.
Saturday, August 3, 2013
Trade Target: Placido Polanco
According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, a few of the first players to be placed on waivers with a trade in mind were reported. One of the most interesting players so far, at least for Atlanta, is Placido Polanco. As a Braves fan, I hated him as a Cardinal, despised him as a Phillie, and forgot that he played in Detroit at some point. He signed a one year, $2.75M contract before the season with the Marlins. That says to me that no team was willing to offer him a starting spot coming into this season except for the Jeffrey Loria's.
Ever since Ramiro Pena went down, the Braves have not had an option to caddy the defensively challenged Chris Johnson with that was also capable of hitting a pitch, any pitch. I'm looking at you, Paul Janish. Love your defense, but you should try to come to the plate without your typical Louisville Invisible Slugger.
Polanco's best days are well in his past. At his highest, he was a superb fielder who could hit well enough with his top-notch bat control for a solid WAR, including a pair of 5 WAR seasons earlier in his career. Now 37, Polanco has been limited to third base the past two seasons and his pop, which was never great, is all but gone. He really shouldn't be starting at this point of his career, but the Marlins arepathetic desperate. His splits tend toward a guy who hits LHP very well and struggles badly against LHP (.347 AVG vs. .220 this season). In two of the last three years, that split difference has shown up so there is a degree of value in saying that he can hit left-handers fairly well at this point.
Owed around $880K for the rest of the year, Polanco would be a cheap investment for the Braves, but is he is a good one? Defensively, Polanco would become Johnson's caddy. I'll give Johnson some credit here and say he has played better defense of late, but I still struggle to have confidence in him in the late innings with a lead. Polanco has been a tremendous defender at third throughout his career. For example, in his first two seasons as an everyday third baseman for the Phillies 2010-11, he posted UZR's of 11.7 and 13.9. In about 400 fewer innings in 2012, he still posted a 4.4 UZR. However, his UZR is a career-worst -2.2 this year. Sometimes, a fluky year can show up in UZR so I tend to value a three-year sample vs. one-year. The only problem with that is aging players tend to become worse defensively so age might be an issue here. I'd have to lean on my scouts, of which I have none. However, Atlanta has more disposable income to put into scouting, of which I have, again, none.
Even if they come back saying he's lost a step, but is still a decent third baseman, do the Braves have a spot for him? Let's look at the usual bench since the injury to Reed Johnson.
Bench: Gerald Laird, Janish, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza, and Todd Cunningham. Recently, Laird was DL'd, but he should be back soon.
B.J. Upton is supposed to return today so that would eliminate one outfielder. Also, Jordan Schafer is expected to begin his rehab assignment with Gwinnett so he would likely replace the other outfielder. Grabbing Polanco was supposed to replace Janish, who is limited to pinch running and defensive replacement duties, however Polanco would actually replace Terdo. Janish would need to remain with the team to back-up shortstop and second. Polanco was once a super second baseman, but he hasn't played the position since 2011 and he only logged an inning that year. The previous season, he played 82 innings at second, but that's three years ago. He last played shortstop in 2005.
Acquiring Polanco seem like it would be, at best, a lateral move, but more likely a move that hurts the Braves because I have more confidence in Terdo's bat than Polanco's at this point. Not to say I wouldn't make the deal, but this is a deal I am only interested in come the end of August when I could do some fancy roster-work to keep Polanco around for the playoffs. If Polanco goes unclaimed, he is not the guy right now for the Braves to acquire, even if he would be super cheap.
Ever since Ramiro Pena went down, the Braves have not had an option to caddy the defensively challenged Chris Johnson with that was also capable of hitting a pitch, any pitch. I'm looking at you, Paul Janish. Love your defense, but you should try to come to the plate without your typical Louisville Invisible Slugger.
Polanco's best days are well in his past. At his highest, he was a superb fielder who could hit well enough with his top-notch bat control for a solid WAR, including a pair of 5 WAR seasons earlier in his career. Now 37, Polanco has been limited to third base the past two seasons and his pop, which was never great, is all but gone. He really shouldn't be starting at this point of his career, but the Marlins are
Owed around $880K for the rest of the year, Polanco would be a cheap investment for the Braves, but is he is a good one? Defensively, Polanco would become Johnson's caddy. I'll give Johnson some credit here and say he has played better defense of late, but I still struggle to have confidence in him in the late innings with a lead. Polanco has been a tremendous defender at third throughout his career. For example, in his first two seasons as an everyday third baseman for the Phillies 2010-11, he posted UZR's of 11.7 and 13.9. In about 400 fewer innings in 2012, he still posted a 4.4 UZR. However, his UZR is a career-worst -2.2 this year. Sometimes, a fluky year can show up in UZR so I tend to value a three-year sample vs. one-year. The only problem with that is aging players tend to become worse defensively so age might be an issue here. I'd have to lean on my scouts, of which I have none. However, Atlanta has more disposable income to put into scouting, of which I have, again, none.
Even if they come back saying he's lost a step, but is still a decent third baseman, do the Braves have a spot for him? Let's look at the usual bench since the injury to Reed Johnson.
Bench: Gerald Laird, Janish, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza, and Todd Cunningham. Recently, Laird was DL'd, but he should be back soon.
B.J. Upton is supposed to return today so that would eliminate one outfielder. Also, Jordan Schafer is expected to begin his rehab assignment with Gwinnett so he would likely replace the other outfielder. Grabbing Polanco was supposed to replace Janish, who is limited to pinch running and defensive replacement duties, however Polanco would actually replace Terdo. Janish would need to remain with the team to back-up shortstop and second. Polanco was once a super second baseman, but he hasn't played the position since 2011 and he only logged an inning that year. The previous season, he played 82 innings at second, but that's three years ago. He last played shortstop in 2005.
Acquiring Polanco seem like it would be, at best, a lateral move, but more likely a move that hurts the Braves because I have more confidence in Terdo's bat than Polanco's at this point. Not to say I wouldn't make the deal, but this is a deal I am only interested in come the end of August when I could do some fancy roster-work to keep Polanco around for the playoffs. If Polanco goes unclaimed, he is not the guy right now for the Braves to acquire, even if he would be super cheap.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Post-Deadline Pre-Other Deadline Thoughts
Ah, great. July 31st has come and gone and we can stop this thinking about trades. Well, no, not so much. Instead, it's August and we get the often-confused, rarely understood Waiver Trades. For the final two months, trades can be completed but only if players go through waivers and every team in baseball says "this guy is overpaid/sucky/ugly" and declines to claim the player. It's a ridiculous way to make things more complicated than they should be. And to make things even more odd, any player picked up must be acquired before August 31st to be available for the playoff roster.
Atlanta has been active after August 1st throughout the past 20 or so years. Often, the players who are acquired fit a particular role for the team for cheap because there are only weeks left during the season. Getting a bench bat, for instance, has been the goal for an August trade. In 1995, the Braves acquired both Luis Polonia and Mike Devereaux to provide depth for the team. Polonia was utilized in the playoffs off the bench and Devereaux was the NLCS MVP against the Reds. Greg Colbrunn, Daryle Ward, and Todd Hollandsworth were a few more guys who were picked up only to provide a bat deep in games.
Other times, the Braves have sought out one more arm for the pen. Kent Mercker and Rudy Seanez come to mind. And oddly, both were coming back to Atlanta for a playoff run. In the early 90's, the Braves not only acquired a reliever, but he was a guy they would immediately count on. In 1991, the Braves sent a player to be named later for Alejandro Pena. He would close eleven straight for the Braves and three more in the NLCS against the Pirates. His luck ran out in the World Series after he blew the lead in Game Three (though the Braves took the game in extras) and allowed Gene Larkin's one-out series-winner in Game Seven. The Braves tried their luck with a late-season closer option the next year with Jeff Reardon, but he blew the lead in Game Two of the World Series and gave up a game-winning single in Game Three. So...that sucked.
Rarely do big trades happen in August, though Atlanta has had a couple since 1991. In 1996, they traded Ron Wright, Corey Pointer, and a player to be named for Denny Neagle. Neagle sucked down the stretch, but was great in 1997 with four shutouts (and a fifth in the playoffs). Unfortunately, the player to be named, Jason Schmidt, would eventually become a tremendous starter.
Three years ago, the Braves traded for Derrek Lee to answer a season-long hole at first base. Lee, who was having a bad run of it that year with Chicago, responded with a strong 39-game run with Atlanta, including a .849 OPS, though he would disappear in the division series against the Giants with a 2-for-16 clip.
Atlanta seems likely to pursue a waiver-deal over the next month. Any trade that might happen has one purpose - bettering the playoff roster. Grabbing another reliever could be useful. The Braves still haven't been able to replace Ramiro Pena. And according to Bryce Harper, "this shit ain't over." I guess Harper is going to will the Nationals to catch the Braves. Heeding his threat, the Braves might need to make a deal over the next month. Maybe add Placido Polanco for bench depth. Maybe add a reliever, if the pass through waivers. Whatever they might do, don't expect a big trade. They simply do not happen in August unless you're the Red Sox and you're sending a small country's GDP to the Dodgers.
Atlanta has been active after August 1st throughout the past 20 or so years. Often, the players who are acquired fit a particular role for the team for cheap because there are only weeks left during the season. Getting a bench bat, for instance, has been the goal for an August trade. In 1995, the Braves acquired both Luis Polonia and Mike Devereaux to provide depth for the team. Polonia was utilized in the playoffs off the bench and Devereaux was the NLCS MVP against the Reds. Greg Colbrunn, Daryle Ward, and Todd Hollandsworth were a few more guys who were picked up only to provide a bat deep in games.
Other times, the Braves have sought out one more arm for the pen. Kent Mercker and Rudy Seanez come to mind. And oddly, both were coming back to Atlanta for a playoff run. In the early 90's, the Braves not only acquired a reliever, but he was a guy they would immediately count on. In 1991, the Braves sent a player to be named later for Alejandro Pena. He would close eleven straight for the Braves and three more in the NLCS against the Pirates. His luck ran out in the World Series after he blew the lead in Game Three (though the Braves took the game in extras) and allowed Gene Larkin's one-out series-winner in Game Seven. The Braves tried their luck with a late-season closer option the next year with Jeff Reardon, but he blew the lead in Game Two of the World Series and gave up a game-winning single in Game Three. So...that sucked.
Rarely do big trades happen in August, though Atlanta has had a couple since 1991. In 1996, they traded Ron Wright, Corey Pointer, and a player to be named for Denny Neagle. Neagle sucked down the stretch, but was great in 1997 with four shutouts (and a fifth in the playoffs). Unfortunately, the player to be named, Jason Schmidt, would eventually become a tremendous starter.
Three years ago, the Braves traded for Derrek Lee to answer a season-long hole at first base. Lee, who was having a bad run of it that year with Chicago, responded with a strong 39-game run with Atlanta, including a .849 OPS, though he would disappear in the division series against the Giants with a 2-for-16 clip.
Atlanta seems likely to pursue a waiver-deal over the next month. Any trade that might happen has one purpose - bettering the playoff roster. Grabbing another reliever could be useful. The Braves still haven't been able to replace Ramiro Pena. And according to Bryce Harper, "this shit ain't over." I guess Harper is going to will the Nationals to catch the Braves. Heeding his threat, the Braves might need to make a deal over the next month. Maybe add Placido Polanco for bench depth. Maybe add a reliever, if the pass through waivers. Whatever they might do, don't expect a big trade. They simply do not happen in August unless you're the Red Sox and you're sending a small country's GDP to the Dodgers.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Wren E-Mails Rizzo
Here at Walk-Off Walk, we have obtained these e-mail records from about 2:30 this afternoon as the Nationals were in the midst of falling behind 10-1 to the Tigers.
From: Frank Wren
Subject: Got a question about a player's availability
Listen, I know this season hasn't gone the way you guys wanted. I really admire how much you have tried, but it's time to accept facts. With that mind, we could use a starter in the wake of Tim Hudson's injury. How about this guy you have... Jordan Zimmermann? Seems like a nice righty arm. I'll take him off your hands so you can give Stephen Strasburg a mega-extension. How about Kameron Loe? I just designated him for assignment, but only because of a number crunch on the team. Badly wanted to keep him. Also, I'll add Tyler Pastornicky. Plucky, gritty guy with the will to win. And you know what...I shouldn't, but I'll let you rip me off. Matt Kimbrel. Yes, that Matt Kimbrel. Let's get this done before the deadline.
From: Mike Rizzo
Subject: Re: Got a question about a player's availability
Fuck you.
From: Frank Wren
Subject: Got a question about a player's availability
Listen, I know this season hasn't gone the way you guys wanted. I really admire how much you have tried, but it's time to accept facts. With that mind, we could use a starter in the wake of Tim Hudson's injury. How about this guy you have... Jordan Zimmermann? Seems like a nice righty arm. I'll take him off your hands so you can give Stephen Strasburg a mega-extension. How about Kameron Loe? I just designated him for assignment, but only because of a number crunch on the team. Badly wanted to keep him. Also, I'll add Tyler Pastornicky. Plucky, gritty guy with the will to win. And you know what...I shouldn't, but I'll let you rip me off. Matt Kimbrel. Yes, that Matt Kimbrel. Let's get this done before the deadline.
From: Mike Rizzo
Subject: Re: Got a question about a player's availability
Fuck you.
Did the Braves Miss Out on Peavy?
To start off, I will immediately point out that it is impossible to know what teams were interested in Jake Peavy. While the Braves may have been one and other teams like the A's, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks have been suggested as suitors for the right-hander, you must take rumors with a massive grain of salt this time of year. How much interest any of the aforementioned teams or any other teams for that matter had in Peavy is speculative. Frank Wren may have never called the White Sox about the availability of Peavy, despite a wealth of reports that suggested otherwise.
However, if I may rosterbate all over you for a second, if the Atlanta Braves were interested in Peavy, watching the parade of quantity over quality that it took to acquire Peavy must have been disheartening. Boston did give up Jose Iglesias, the second best player in the deal, but he didn't even go to the White Sox. Instead, he was included to get the Tigers involved as they sought out a replacement for the likely suspended Jhonny Peralta. In doing so, the Red Sox secured the outfield prospect Avisail Garcia from the Tigers (along with a minor league reliever that Boston kept) and sent Garcia with three prospects to the White Sox to get Peavy.
The problem, at least from the standpoint of this Braves fan, is the three prospects were not that good. That's a relative term, but Cleuluis Rondon is a glove-first middle infielder with a 138 at-bats at A-ball. Not even high-A ball, just A-ball. That means he's young and the scouts probably believe he has potential to be a starter in the majors, but that's at least three years away and to this point, he hasn't hit that well (though his .277 AVG this season and .681 OPS are the best of his career).
Grabbing a guy from the lower minors who might be a high-reward guy would be fine when getting prospects you can count on a little more. But the White Sox failed to get that. 20 year-old right-hander Francellis Montas is also in A-ball (the BoSox have three A clubs) and has gotten whipped around pretty good this season. He's getting strikeouts, but also giving up a lot of hits. Jeffrey Wendelken doesn't turn this turd of a deal into a coup for the White Sox either. A minor league reliever with nice numbers is what you add to a great deal for a cherry-on-the-top. The White Sox's best prospect in this deal came from the Tigers.
Abysmal take for the White Sox, but this isn't a White Sox blog. Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Tim Hudson injury, I wrote about how Peavy could (and should) be a target for the Braves. I was willing to offer Christian Bethancourt, Joey Terdoslavich, Tommy La Stella, and a player to be named later. If the Braves entered into a bidding war with other teams vying for Peavy, maybe Kris Medlen comes onto the table with the White Sox kicking in $5M next year.
Boy, would I have gotten ripped off.
Again, who knows if Wren had much interest in Peavy and Garcia was ranked as the #74 overall prospect entering 2013 by Baseball America and John Sickels ranks him as a B prospect with poor strikezone judgement. None of the other prospects were ranked. But you would have thought the Braves could have come calling with a better starting package than the ones the Red Sox ultimately gave up. Only a few days ago, there were reports that the Braves were balking at the demands for Peavy. If this offer that the White Sox ultimately accepted was the best offered, the Braves seriously missed the boat.
I believe you never regret the deal you don't make. Atlanta kept all of their players and whether or not Peavy would have been a big player down the stretch for them is debatable. Some feel he is on his last legs, some (like me) believe he can still be a guy capable of solidifying the top of a team's rotation. The Braves, unless something considerable happens before the deadline, seem content to stay pat and I felt that was reasonable. However, if that package is the going-rate for a good starter...maybe the Braves need to kick the tires on every possibly available starter.
For that matter, hey Rick Hahn, that Peavy offer I suggested is also on the table for Chris Sale.
However, if I may rosterbate all over you for a second, if the Atlanta Braves were interested in Peavy, watching the parade of quantity over quality that it took to acquire Peavy must have been disheartening. Boston did give up Jose Iglesias, the second best player in the deal, but he didn't even go to the White Sox. Instead, he was included to get the Tigers involved as they sought out a replacement for the likely suspended Jhonny Peralta. In doing so, the Red Sox secured the outfield prospect Avisail Garcia from the Tigers (along with a minor league reliever that Boston kept) and sent Garcia with three prospects to the White Sox to get Peavy.
The problem, at least from the standpoint of this Braves fan, is the three prospects were not that good. That's a relative term, but Cleuluis Rondon is a glove-first middle infielder with a 138 at-bats at A-ball. Not even high-A ball, just A-ball. That means he's young and the scouts probably believe he has potential to be a starter in the majors, but that's at least three years away and to this point, he hasn't hit that well (though his .277 AVG this season and .681 OPS are the best of his career).
Grabbing a guy from the lower minors who might be a high-reward guy would be fine when getting prospects you can count on a little more. But the White Sox failed to get that. 20 year-old right-hander Francellis Montas is also in A-ball (the BoSox have three A clubs) and has gotten whipped around pretty good this season. He's getting strikeouts, but also giving up a lot of hits. Jeffrey Wendelken doesn't turn this turd of a deal into a coup for the White Sox either. A minor league reliever with nice numbers is what you add to a great deal for a cherry-on-the-top. The White Sox's best prospect in this deal came from the Tigers.
Abysmal take for the White Sox, but this isn't a White Sox blog. Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Tim Hudson injury, I wrote about how Peavy could (and should) be a target for the Braves. I was willing to offer Christian Bethancourt, Joey Terdoslavich, Tommy La Stella, and a player to be named later. If the Braves entered into a bidding war with other teams vying for Peavy, maybe Kris Medlen comes onto the table with the White Sox kicking in $5M next year.
Boy, would I have gotten ripped off.
Again, who knows if Wren had much interest in Peavy and Garcia was ranked as the #74 overall prospect entering 2013 by Baseball America and John Sickels ranks him as a B prospect with poor strikezone judgement. None of the other prospects were ranked. But you would have thought the Braves could have come calling with a better starting package than the ones the Red Sox ultimately gave up. Only a few days ago, there were reports that the Braves were balking at the demands for Peavy. If this offer that the White Sox ultimately accepted was the best offered, the Braves seriously missed the boat.
I believe you never regret the deal you don't make. Atlanta kept all of their players and whether or not Peavy would have been a big player down the stretch for them is debatable. Some feel he is on his last legs, some (like me) believe he can still be a guy capable of solidifying the top of a team's rotation. The Braves, unless something considerable happens before the deadline, seem content to stay pat and I felt that was reasonable. However, if that package is the going-rate for a good starter...maybe the Braves need to kick the tires on every possibly available starter.
For that matter, hey Rick Hahn, that Peavy offer I suggested is also on the table for Chris Sale.
Monday, July 29, 2013
Howdy Scott! See ya Cory!
In the offseason, the Braves plucked Jordan Walden from the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels in the Outfield from Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Being that Walden has worked out so well, the Braves tried their luck again and today acquired Scott Downs from the Angels for minor league pitcher Cory Rasmus. When a player is acquired, I do a Howdy column. When a player leaves, I do a See ya column. When it happens at the same time, it's CROSSOVER TIME!
I wrote about Downs back on July 23. I didn't go too far into him because that allows me the opportunity to write more today. Since joining the Angels before 2011 on a 3-year, $15M contract, the left-hander from Kentucky has continued his run as one of the best left-handed relievers in the game. Over a career that began in 2000, Downs has limited lefties to a slash line of .207/.273/.295. However, that line is actually warped by early-career struggles. He has been even more dominant since 2010.
Here's something funny. You have to go back to August 11th, 2011 for the last time a left-handed hitter homered off Downs. Of course, giving up a homer, even a Grand Slam, to Robinson Cano is nothing to be ashamed about.
The domination by Downs against lefties can not be exaggerated. Only three players have limited lefties to a lower batting average since 2010. Getting Downs is a huge lift for the Braves. It allows them to not count on Alex Wood to be an important part of their bullpen and it helps limit the role Luis Avilan has to play for the Braves down the stretch. Downs is not a guy having a nice run. As far as relievers on the market go, very few are better at what they do than Downs.
On the other hand, the loss of Rasmus was a minimal cost for Atlanta. The 38th overall pick of the 2006 draft struggled with his health early in his career, missing all of 2007 and most of 2008. He only appeared in 51.2 innings during 2009 with Danville before finally enjoying some sustained health the following season, pitching a career high 124.1 innings. I saw him on opening day in 2011 for the Lychburg Hillcats and remarked to my wife that he might be a good reliever down the line. He again missed a good portion of the season with injuries.
Having enough of Rasmus as a starter, the Braves sent him to the bullpen to open 2012 with Mississippi. He struck out 62 in 58.1 innings, though he did have some wildness with 32 walks. The Braves saw him as vulnerable in the Rule 5 draft and added him to the 40-man roster in the offseason. In 2013, he took over the closer role in Gwinnett and saved 14 games with them. He also made his major league debut, though he found out hitters at this level can destroy fastballs (4 HR in 6.2 ING).
Rasmus has potential, but you can say that about anyone. There has been little in his numbers to get excited about at this point. He can make hitters miss, but has yet to display the control that makes that ability a tremendous skill. With that said, he's still young at 25 and can have a good career in the majors.
Regardless of what Rasmus does, this is a win for the Braves. Getting Downs for a minor league reliever who won't make any top prospect lists is a great pick-up for Wren and the Braves.
I wrote about Downs back on July 23. I didn't go too far into him because that allows me the opportunity to write more today. Since joining the Angels before 2011 on a 3-year, $15M contract, the left-hander from Kentucky has continued his run as one of the best left-handed relievers in the game. Over a career that began in 2000, Downs has limited lefties to a slash line of .207/.273/.295. However, that line is actually warped by early-career struggles. He has been even more dominant since 2010.
Here's something funny. You have to go back to August 11th, 2011 for the last time a left-handed hitter homered off Downs. Of course, giving up a homer, even a Grand Slam, to Robinson Cano is nothing to be ashamed about.
The domination by Downs against lefties can not be exaggerated. Only three players have limited lefties to a lower batting average since 2010. Getting Downs is a huge lift for the Braves. It allows them to not count on Alex Wood to be an important part of their bullpen and it helps limit the role Luis Avilan has to play for the Braves down the stretch. Downs is not a guy having a nice run. As far as relievers on the market go, very few are better at what they do than Downs.
On the other hand, the loss of Rasmus was a minimal cost for Atlanta. The 38th overall pick of the 2006 draft struggled with his health early in his career, missing all of 2007 and most of 2008. He only appeared in 51.2 innings during 2009 with Danville before finally enjoying some sustained health the following season, pitching a career high 124.1 innings. I saw him on opening day in 2011 for the Lychburg Hillcats and remarked to my wife that he might be a good reliever down the line. He again missed a good portion of the season with injuries.
Having enough of Rasmus as a starter, the Braves sent him to the bullpen to open 2012 with Mississippi. He struck out 62 in 58.1 innings, though he did have some wildness with 32 walks. The Braves saw him as vulnerable in the Rule 5 draft and added him to the 40-man roster in the offseason. In 2013, he took over the closer role in Gwinnett and saved 14 games with them. He also made his major league debut, though he found out hitters at this level can destroy fastballs (4 HR in 6.2 ING).
Rasmus has potential, but you can say that about anyone. There has been little in his numbers to get excited about at this point. He can make hitters miss, but has yet to display the control that makes that ability a tremendous skill. With that said, he's still young at 25 and can have a good career in the majors.
Regardless of what Rasmus does, this is a win for the Braves. Getting Downs for a minor league reliever who won't make any top prospect lists is a great pick-up for Wren and the Braves.
Saturday, July 27, 2013
Twitter Feed: July 27
Happy Saturday all.
-Jim Bowden mentions that Kyle Lohse has been hot of late and should he be a trade target for the Braves? The Brewers right-hander notably struggled to find a deal in the offseason after the Cardinals gave him qualifying offer. He received 3 years, $33M right before the season from Milwaukee and they would need his permission to deal him this soon after signing a contract. Doubt the Braves are interested in that contract, even if Lohse has been his usual decent self.
-In addition to the names of Lohse and Jake Peavy, Royals right-hander Ervin Santana was thrown around as a possible trade target, tweets Mark Bowman. Ken Rosenthal says the Royals are interested in major-league ready talent. Santana would be a rental and the Braves are unlikely to pay a premium for him and the Royals would need talent in return for Santana considering they can simply place a qualifying offer on him after the season. Just don't see a match here. Braves won't offer one of their ready starters for a guy they are unlikely to retain after this season.
-Too many have brought up Bud Norris as a possibility. Yesterday, spoke of how the Braves need a guy to put at the head of the rotation. Norris screams average, okay, meh, not awful. He is in badly need of a third pitch. The slider is solid and something off-speed would do a lot for his 92-93 mph velocity, but his changeup is rarely used and often pulverized when it is. If you are going to make a trade, shouldn't you make one for someone clearly better than Paul Maholm?
-Elsewhere, Jayson Stark's sources make it clear the Braves are unlikely to acquire a starter because Frank Wren is not willing to pay the price. Bowman says he is. Rosenthal says the Braves likely won't. WHO IS RIGHT?
-From DOB, both B.J. Upton and Jordan Schafer did their running before the game Friday. For Upton, it was more of the same. However, for Schafer it was a first.
-Finally, an Hudson update from Rosenthal. The surgery Hudson went under was to repair fractured fibula and deltoid ligament in right ankle. Takes about four months to rehab so he could be ready by December. If he returns, he should have a good portion of the offseason at full health as he tries to secure employment for 2014.
-Jim Bowden mentions that Kyle Lohse has been hot of late and should he be a trade target for the Braves? The Brewers right-hander notably struggled to find a deal in the offseason after the Cardinals gave him qualifying offer. He received 3 years, $33M right before the season from Milwaukee and they would need his permission to deal him this soon after signing a contract. Doubt the Braves are interested in that contract, even if Lohse has been his usual decent self.
-In addition to the names of Lohse and Jake Peavy, Royals right-hander Ervin Santana was thrown around as a possible trade target, tweets Mark Bowman. Ken Rosenthal says the Royals are interested in major-league ready talent. Santana would be a rental and the Braves are unlikely to pay a premium for him and the Royals would need talent in return for Santana considering they can simply place a qualifying offer on him after the season. Just don't see a match here. Braves won't offer one of their ready starters for a guy they are unlikely to retain after this season.
-Too many have brought up Bud Norris as a possibility. Yesterday, spoke of how the Braves need a guy to put at the head of the rotation. Norris screams average, okay, meh, not awful. He is in badly need of a third pitch. The slider is solid and something off-speed would do a lot for his 92-93 mph velocity, but his changeup is rarely used and often pulverized when it is. If you are going to make a trade, shouldn't you make one for someone clearly better than Paul Maholm?
-Elsewhere, Jayson Stark's sources make it clear the Braves are unlikely to acquire a starter because Frank Wren is not willing to pay the price. Bowman says he is. Rosenthal says the Braves likely won't. WHO IS RIGHT?
-From DOB, both B.J. Upton and Jordan Schafer did their running before the game Friday. For Upton, it was more of the same. However, for Schafer it was a first.
-Finally, an Hudson update from Rosenthal. The surgery Hudson went under was to repair fractured fibula and deltoid ligament in right ankle. Takes about four months to rehab so he could be ready by December. If he returns, he should have a good portion of the offseason at full health as he tries to secure employment for 2014.
Friday, July 26, 2013
Trade Target: Jake Peavy
The gruesome injury to Tim Hudson changed the game for the Atlanta Braves. Entering mid-July, the Braves had potentially seven starters that were ready for a role in a major league rotation. Beyond the normal five that had accounted for all but one start coming into July, there was the young lefty Alex Wood, whose stock continued to skyrocket after iffy mechanics and size questions dropped him to the second round last year. Within a year of being a professional, Wood had made his debut for the Braves, coming out of the bullpen and provided a second left-hander to pair with Luis Avilan in the wake of season-ending surgeries for Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters.
Wood was not the only possible in-house addition for the Braves. Last season's early-year ace Brandon Beachy was working his way back from last year's surgery. A setback in June kept him from getting into the fray quicker, but while Hudson's season ended in New York, Beachy was making what seemed like his final rehab start for Gwinnett.
But the injuries started to mount. First, Paul Maholm left his start last week with a sprained wrist. That prompted the Braves to go to Wood, at least for a start. It also all but eliminated any opportunity for Maholm to be in the mix for a rare contender-to-contender exchange at the deadline. A day before Wood's return to the rotation, Hudson's injury forced the Braves to formally end Beachy's rehab stint.
Five starters with Maholm likely a week or so from returning to make it six. On one hand, it seemed like having that depth proved fortunate as the Braves could sustain the injuries and still move forward. However, there were question marks for everyone. Mike Minor, the de facto ace, has proved himself after his first 39 starts in the majors were not exactly awesome. However, is he ready to match up with Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw? Doubtful. Julio Teheran is 19 starts into his first major league campaign and, at this time, has to be the clubhouse leader for a Game Two start in a division series provided Atlanta gets there. Kris Medlen was on his way to the bullpen only a week ago and that knowledge was quite public. I can't remember who pointed this out or I would give credit, but in his last 16 starts, Maholm has a 1.54 WHIP and 5.38 ERA. Wood, for all the hype, is a pup and nobody has much of an idea of what Beachy is capable of producing this soon after surgery.
Some believe Atlanta was interested in the starting pitching market before the injuries and if they were dipping their toes into the market, they are diving in at this point. My friend Bryce mentioned some of the names that have been brought up. Not many people were happy with his idea, but I'll throw my hat into the ring as well. If the Braves are going to make a move, they need a trade for someone better than the average guy who takes the ball every fifth day. They have plenty of those guys. Instead, they need an arm that will answer the call in a Game One assignment. They need someone better than Hudson. They need their first true ace since John Smoltz.
Could Jake Peavy by that guy? As I mentioned earlier today, Peavy has his easy-to-see problems. After an amazing 2007 season that brought him a Cy Young award and a career-best 5.9 WAR, Peavy has struggled to stay healthy. He only missed a few starts the next season, but from 2009-11, he threw between 101.2 and 111.2 innings in all three seasons. The White Sox had to feel snake-bitten after trading for Peavy at the 2009 deadline. Entering a walk-year, Peavy was able to stay healthy and responded with his third season with a 4.0 WAR or better. The White Sox responded by locking up Peavy before he hit free agency with a two-year extension that will pay him $14.5M both this year and next. The White Sox also gave Peavy a player option for 2015 that was conditional on his health. He needed to reach 400 innings during the life of the contract, which is unlikely since he is only on pace for about 130 innings this year.
He has appeared in so few innings because - surprise, surprise - Peavy was hurt earlier this season with a broken rib that kept him out of action for over a month until his return last week against the Braves. Still, could Peavy be the answer for Atanta? At his best, Peavy has an electric right arm, capable of throwing five pitches with confidence, including a slider that has been devastating during his career. However, he's throwing it less this season, though I can't say if that is by design. Instead, he has thrown his cutter more but still has a curve and a nice changeup that offsets his 90 mph fastball.
Peavy's full-season numbers are warped by three bad games. An early start where Peavy was charged with six runs and back-to-back starts before he hit the DL that resulted in a half-dozen runs each. It helps explain why his FIP and xFIP are not close to one another (4.10 to 3.69). His K% of 23.5% is a little higher than last year and matches his career number. Over the last three seasons, his BB% has hovered just over 5%. His 1.14 WHIP is close to his number last year as well. So don't pay much of a mind to his 4.28 ERA. He has pitched better than that. I think Peavy can definitely pitch better down the stretch now that he's healthy.
But how much longer will Peavy be healthy? A month, three months, a year? Bringing him aboard means Atlanta will be paying him in 2014. Unless the White Sox helps out with some money, which seems unlikely, the Braves would be adding Peavy to their current commitments which means $57.858 million for next year would be on the books with arbitration cases for an additional 13 players, including three starting pitchers, two set-up men, Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, Chris Johnson, Jason Heyward, and a few other key players. That's not including Reed Johnson's 2014 option.
The problem seems to be that Atlanta doesn't match up well with the White Sox, especially if other teams with better farm systems come calling. If the Boston Red Sox's interest in Peavy is high and they are willing to use their tremendous high-ceiling prospects, can Atlanta even get into the discussion with a package starting with Medlen? Again, seems unlikely. But let's give a shot.
The Braves are desperately low on on position prospects, but also don't have to replace a starting positional player before 2015 outside of Brian McCann. That helps formulate our package. On the prospect side, I am including Christian Bethancourt. The White Sox have tried to make due with another former Braves farmhand, Tyler Flowers, behind the plate and it's not gone so well. Bethancourt is already major-league ready on defense and is in the midst of a nine game hit streak that has included four homers. In fact, over the last two months, Bethancourt has homered seven times, impressive because he entered June with one homer this season and 15 during his career. He's even been in a walk binge, especially for him. I'm selling high because I'm still low on his bat.
To add to Bethancourt, I'm including Tommy La Stella. He's going to hit, I am comfortable saying that. His defense isn't loved, though some like it more than others. He's also struggled to stay healthy. Adding to the mix, Joey Terdoslavich. I would love to keep him for the bench in 2014, but if it comes down to keeping bench player or getting a starting pitcher capable of leading a staff, I am going with the starter. In addition to those three, the classic player to be named later. The White Sox will have to decide after the season ends for the Braves, hopefully following a World Series victory, who gets added to the trade. A list of about five players will be included. Cody Martin, Todd Cunningham, Tyler Pastornicky, David Carpenter, and Juan Jaime to name a few possibilities.
Now comes where the fun really begins. If there is a market for Peavy, the Braves have to include Medlen to get into the discussion. If there's not a strong market, the Braves might be able to keep Medlen. In the situation that the White Sox balk at giving up Peavy for the package previously discussed, Atlanta could include Medlen with the condition that the White Sox pays $5M toward Peavy's salary in 2014.
There are worries with Peavy, but if the package is right, Atlanta would be hard-pressed to find a better pitcher.
Wood was not the only possible in-house addition for the Braves. Last season's early-year ace Brandon Beachy was working his way back from last year's surgery. A setback in June kept him from getting into the fray quicker, but while Hudson's season ended in New York, Beachy was making what seemed like his final rehab start for Gwinnett.
But the injuries started to mount. First, Paul Maholm left his start last week with a sprained wrist. That prompted the Braves to go to Wood, at least for a start. It also all but eliminated any opportunity for Maholm to be in the mix for a rare contender-to-contender exchange at the deadline. A day before Wood's return to the rotation, Hudson's injury forced the Braves to formally end Beachy's rehab stint.
Five starters with Maholm likely a week or so from returning to make it six. On one hand, it seemed like having that depth proved fortunate as the Braves could sustain the injuries and still move forward. However, there were question marks for everyone. Mike Minor, the de facto ace, has proved himself after his first 39 starts in the majors were not exactly awesome. However, is he ready to match up with Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw? Doubtful. Julio Teheran is 19 starts into his first major league campaign and, at this time, has to be the clubhouse leader for a Game Two start in a division series provided Atlanta gets there. Kris Medlen was on his way to the bullpen only a week ago and that knowledge was quite public. I can't remember who pointed this out or I would give credit, but in his last 16 starts, Maholm has a 1.54 WHIP and 5.38 ERA. Wood, for all the hype, is a pup and nobody has much of an idea of what Beachy is capable of producing this soon after surgery.
Some believe Atlanta was interested in the starting pitching market before the injuries and if they were dipping their toes into the market, they are diving in at this point. My friend Bryce mentioned some of the names that have been brought up. Not many people were happy with his idea, but I'll throw my hat into the ring as well. If the Braves are going to make a move, they need a trade for someone better than the average guy who takes the ball every fifth day. They have plenty of those guys. Instead, they need an arm that will answer the call in a Game One assignment. They need someone better than Hudson. They need their first true ace since John Smoltz.
Could Jake Peavy by that guy? As I mentioned earlier today, Peavy has his easy-to-see problems. After an amazing 2007 season that brought him a Cy Young award and a career-best 5.9 WAR, Peavy has struggled to stay healthy. He only missed a few starts the next season, but from 2009-11, he threw between 101.2 and 111.2 innings in all three seasons. The White Sox had to feel snake-bitten after trading for Peavy at the 2009 deadline. Entering a walk-year, Peavy was able to stay healthy and responded with his third season with a 4.0 WAR or better. The White Sox responded by locking up Peavy before he hit free agency with a two-year extension that will pay him $14.5M both this year and next. The White Sox also gave Peavy a player option for 2015 that was conditional on his health. He needed to reach 400 innings during the life of the contract, which is unlikely since he is only on pace for about 130 innings this year.
He has appeared in so few innings because - surprise, surprise - Peavy was hurt earlier this season with a broken rib that kept him out of action for over a month until his return last week against the Braves. Still, could Peavy be the answer for Atanta? At his best, Peavy has an electric right arm, capable of throwing five pitches with confidence, including a slider that has been devastating during his career. However, he's throwing it less this season, though I can't say if that is by design. Instead, he has thrown his cutter more but still has a curve and a nice changeup that offsets his 90 mph fastball.
Peavy's full-season numbers are warped by three bad games. An early start where Peavy was charged with six runs and back-to-back starts before he hit the DL that resulted in a half-dozen runs each. It helps explain why his FIP and xFIP are not close to one another (4.10 to 3.69). His K% of 23.5% is a little higher than last year and matches his career number. Over the last three seasons, his BB% has hovered just over 5%. His 1.14 WHIP is close to his number last year as well. So don't pay much of a mind to his 4.28 ERA. He has pitched better than that. I think Peavy can definitely pitch better down the stretch now that he's healthy.
But how much longer will Peavy be healthy? A month, three months, a year? Bringing him aboard means Atlanta will be paying him in 2014. Unless the White Sox helps out with some money, which seems unlikely, the Braves would be adding Peavy to their current commitments which means $57.858 million for next year would be on the books with arbitration cases for an additional 13 players, including three starting pitchers, two set-up men, Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, Chris Johnson, Jason Heyward, and a few other key players. That's not including Reed Johnson's 2014 option.
The problem seems to be that Atlanta doesn't match up well with the White Sox, especially if other teams with better farm systems come calling. If the Boston Red Sox's interest in Peavy is high and they are willing to use their tremendous high-ceiling prospects, can Atlanta even get into the discussion with a package starting with Medlen? Again, seems unlikely. But let's give a shot.
The Braves are desperately low on on position prospects, but also don't have to replace a starting positional player before 2015 outside of Brian McCann. That helps formulate our package. On the prospect side, I am including Christian Bethancourt. The White Sox have tried to make due with another former Braves farmhand, Tyler Flowers, behind the plate and it's not gone so well. Bethancourt is already major-league ready on defense and is in the midst of a nine game hit streak that has included four homers. In fact, over the last two months, Bethancourt has homered seven times, impressive because he entered June with one homer this season and 15 during his career. He's even been in a walk binge, especially for him. I'm selling high because I'm still low on his bat.
To add to Bethancourt, I'm including Tommy La Stella. He's going to hit, I am comfortable saying that. His defense isn't loved, though some like it more than others. He's also struggled to stay healthy. Adding to the mix, Joey Terdoslavich. I would love to keep him for the bench in 2014, but if it comes down to keeping bench player or getting a starting pitcher capable of leading a staff, I am going with the starter. In addition to those three, the classic player to be named later. The White Sox will have to decide after the season ends for the Braves, hopefully following a World Series victory, who gets added to the trade. A list of about five players will be included. Cody Martin, Todd Cunningham, Tyler Pastornicky, David Carpenter, and Juan Jaime to name a few possibilities.
Now comes where the fun really begins. If there is a market for Peavy, the Braves have to include Medlen to get into the discussion. If there's not a strong market, the Braves might be able to keep Medlen. In the situation that the White Sox balk at giving up Peavy for the package previously discussed, Atlanta could include Medlen with the condition that the White Sox pays $5M toward Peavy's salary in 2014.
There are worries with Peavy, but if the package is right, Atlanta would be hard-pressed to find a better pitcher.
Twitter Feed: July 26
Ouchie...the guys from the Atlanta Braves forum at mlb.com ripped Bryce and me a new one yesterday. Damn you, Bryce!
-Braves had a scout at the White Sox game yesterday, started by Jake Peavy. This is according to Jayson Stark. Whether or not the Braves' interest was in Peavy or one of the White Sox relievers or both is unknown. Kameron Loe didn't help his chances of sticking around in the bullpen after his awful Thursday outing and the Braves' interest in the starting pitching market is higher since the injury to Tim Hudson. For his part, Peavy was charged with four hits and four runs in seven innings. Detroit's damage came in large part from three homers off Peavy in Whatever-They-Call-Comiskey-Park-II. He walked a pair and struck out seven. It was his second start since returning from the DL, his first coming against our Braves. Of course, Peavy has suffered greatly from injuries during his career. Since 2007's 5.9 WAR season that led him to an Cy Young award, Peavy has failed to reach 200 innings or 30 starts in all but one season. I'm going to do to a Trade Targets on Peavy for later today because there is much that can be written.
-Ken Rosenthal tweeted about a new column that begins with the Braves, but the most interesting tidbit was not about a possible trade for Atlanta, but this: "They struck out once every 3.99 plate appearances in April, followed by once every 4.30 PAs in May, once every 4.62 in June and now once every 5.14 in July." So, Atlanta has that going for them. To read Rosenthal's complete column, click here.
-Deadspin reports on the admission by former Brave Robert Fick that he used steroids twice as he returned from shoulder injuries. Fick, an All-Star with the Tigers in 2002 (mainly cause someone had to be), joined the Braves for 2003 and started 111 games at first. You might remember when he swiped at Eric Karros' glove during the '03 NLDS against the Cubs. Overall, Fick played parts of ten seasons with the Tigers, Braves, Rays, Padres, and Nationals and is now an agent. Hat tip to Keith Olbermann.
-Today is the two-year anniversary of the 19-inning game that is often credited to killing the Pirates season in 2011. To Braves fans, it's known as the Jerry Meals Game. To me, I always think of Scott Proctor falling out of the box after making contact. I believe I worked that night so I only tuned in during the eighth inning or so. Little did I know how much more baseball was to be played. Julio Lugo's only claim to fame for the Braves was being called "safe." Thanks Jerry! Hat-tip to Rob Biertempfel.
-Braves had a scout at the White Sox game yesterday, started by Jake Peavy. This is according to Jayson Stark. Whether or not the Braves' interest was in Peavy or one of the White Sox relievers or both is unknown. Kameron Loe didn't help his chances of sticking around in the bullpen after his awful Thursday outing and the Braves' interest in the starting pitching market is higher since the injury to Tim Hudson. For his part, Peavy was charged with four hits and four runs in seven innings. Detroit's damage came in large part from three homers off Peavy in Whatever-They-Call-Comiskey-Park-II. He walked a pair and struck out seven. It was his second start since returning from the DL, his first coming against our Braves. Of course, Peavy has suffered greatly from injuries during his career. Since 2007's 5.9 WAR season that led him to an Cy Young award, Peavy has failed to reach 200 innings or 30 starts in all but one season. I'm going to do to a Trade Targets on Peavy for later today because there is much that can be written.
-Ken Rosenthal tweeted about a new column that begins with the Braves, but the most interesting tidbit was not about a possible trade for Atlanta, but this: "They struck out once every 3.99 plate appearances in April, followed by once every 4.30 PAs in May, once every 4.62 in June and now once every 5.14 in July." So, Atlanta has that going for them. To read Rosenthal's complete column, click here.
-Deadspin reports on the admission by former Brave Robert Fick that he used steroids twice as he returned from shoulder injuries. Fick, an All-Star with the Tigers in 2002 (mainly cause someone had to be), joined the Braves for 2003 and started 111 games at first. You might remember when he swiped at Eric Karros' glove during the '03 NLDS against the Cubs. Overall, Fick played parts of ten seasons with the Tigers, Braves, Rays, Padres, and Nationals and is now an agent. Hat tip to Keith Olbermann.
-Today is the two-year anniversary of the 19-inning game that is often credited to killing the Pirates season in 2011. To Braves fans, it's known as the Jerry Meals Game. To me, I always think of Scott Proctor falling out of the box after making contact. I believe I worked that night so I only tuned in during the eighth inning or so. Little did I know how much more baseball was to be played. Julio Lugo's only claim to fame for the Braves was being called "safe." Thanks Jerry! Hat-tip to Rob Biertempfel.
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Twitter Feed: July 25
I don't like the way the first two editions of this column have looked so let's try a different way. As always, follow me @WalkOffWalk1.
-Courtesy of Bill Shaikin, Harris Poll recently conducted their yearly poll on Most Popular MLB franchises. Atlanta held their customary third spot for the fourth consecutive season, finishing behind the Yankees and Red Sox (who have also been consistently #1 and #2). The Mets and Phillies are also in the top ten among division rivals. I have actually been a bit surprised with the road support the Braves have received this year, though according to this poll, I shouldn't have been. I wonder, however, if the lack of Braves on TBS will eventually put the Braves into a slide down the poll. For the complete poll, here's a link.
-Brandon Beachy made, what might be, his last rehab start according to DOB. He went six innings for Gwinnett, giving up two hits and walking four compared to three strikeouts. 86 pitches, 51 strikes. Not a wonderful outing, but good enough. As I said yesterday, I am getting more interested in seeing Beachy this season if only to see what the Braves have with him.
-DOB also says that Fredi Gonzalez isn't considering moving Paul Maholm to the bullpen. For what it's worth, lefties are hitting .203/.254/.271, an OPS that is .371 points lower than his split vs. right-handed hitters. This isn't new. Lefties have an OPS against Maholm of .603 throughout his career, .195 points lower the OPS righties have against Maholm. Of course, due to the injury to Tim Hudson, that might be a moot point.
-Elsewhere, the Tigers signed Jair Jurrjens. Yeah, that happened. On the plus side, I can use my Jair tag!
-Jon Heyman points followers to a column by CBS's Danny Knobler. In the article, Knobler contends that Atlanta was already keeping their toes warm in the starting pitching pool, but now might up their search. There doesn't seem to be more than guessing here, which is astonishing because that's the work of a blogger. He mentions Jake Peavy, which a lot of people have also mentioned. I don't see Peavy as much of a fit, but I have been surprised before.
-The injury to Hudson was horrific. Huddy has always been an easy guy to love. You hate to see a guy potentially not have the opportunity to go out on his own terms. Hopefully, he is able to get back out there and get a chance to get back on the mound. It might not be with Atlanta, but if he pitches again, I don't care who he faces (Braves included)...I hope he has the best game of his career. If he's not able to get back...superb career from one of baseball's true class acts.
-Courtesy of Bill Shaikin, Harris Poll recently conducted their yearly poll on Most Popular MLB franchises. Atlanta held their customary third spot for the fourth consecutive season, finishing behind the Yankees and Red Sox (who have also been consistently #1 and #2). The Mets and Phillies are also in the top ten among division rivals. I have actually been a bit surprised with the road support the Braves have received this year, though according to this poll, I shouldn't have been. I wonder, however, if the lack of Braves on TBS will eventually put the Braves into a slide down the poll. For the complete poll, here's a link.
-Brandon Beachy made, what might be, his last rehab start according to DOB. He went six innings for Gwinnett, giving up two hits and walking four compared to three strikeouts. 86 pitches, 51 strikes. Not a wonderful outing, but good enough. As I said yesterday, I am getting more interested in seeing Beachy this season if only to see what the Braves have with him.
-DOB also says that Fredi Gonzalez isn't considering moving Paul Maholm to the bullpen. For what it's worth, lefties are hitting .203/.254/.271, an OPS that is .371 points lower than his split vs. right-handed hitters. This isn't new. Lefties have an OPS against Maholm of .603 throughout his career, .195 points lower the OPS righties have against Maholm. Of course, due to the injury to Tim Hudson, that might be a moot point.
-Elsewhere, the Tigers signed Jair Jurrjens. Yeah, that happened. On the plus side, I can use my Jair tag!
-Jon Heyman points followers to a column by CBS's Danny Knobler. In the article, Knobler contends that Atlanta was already keeping their toes warm in the starting pitching pool, but now might up their search. There doesn't seem to be more than guessing here, which is astonishing because that's the work of a blogger. He mentions Jake Peavy, which a lot of people have also mentioned. I don't see Peavy as much of a fit, but I have been surprised before.
-The injury to Hudson was horrific. Huddy has always been an easy guy to love. You hate to see a guy potentially not have the opportunity to go out on his own terms. Hopefully, he is able to get back out there and get a chance to get back on the mound. It might not be with Atlanta, but if he pitches again, I don't care who he faces (Braves included)...I hope he has the best game of his career. If he's not able to get back...superb career from one of baseball's true class acts.
Post-Hudson Deadline Plans: Guest
My friend Bryce is back with a column on what the Braves could do after the injury to Tim Hudson. He contends that Atlanta should go all-in. However, I worry because the last time he talked about trading a Brave, that guy got hurt.
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The Braves will likely claim they are comfortable with their current starting pitching options. They will have Brandon Beachy returning to take Hudson’s slot in the rotation and will likely hope to have Paul Maholm return after a stint on the DL for a sprained wrist. While they still boast impressive starting pitching depth, it leaves me worried about who will fill out the postseason rotation.
My buddy, Thomas, covered how Kris Medlen had pitched his way into a position to lose his starting role upon Beachy’s return prior to the Hudson injury. Despite the sudden strangle hold Kris has gained to his starting role since yesterday, it doesn’t change the fact that he has been an average pitcher in 2013—which in my eyes should not change his status of being in jeopardy of losing his starting role. Combine that with the general distrust Maholm gives me as a not bad, but definitely not good pitcher, the uncertainty surrounding Beachy’s health and production ceiling coming back from Tommy John, and Alex Wood’s obvious lack of experience and it’s easy to understand why I feel the Atlanta Braves will be playing with fire if/when they say they are comfortable with their current starters.
That said, what should the Braves do about it? Pay up for an injury-prone Jake Peavy? Go after an unimpressive Bud Norris? Roll the dice on a flat out awful Josh Johnson? Ugh. I just threw up in my mouth a little bit thinking about those options. Luckily for you, I have a better idea. One that I’m fairly certain would be unpopular on face value, but I feel would increase the chances of a championship and create interesting possibilities for the winter. Are you ready? Wait for it. Very good. I commend your patience.
James Shields. Seriously.
The Royals have made Ervin Santana available recently and are practically guaranteeing themselves a sub-.500 finish to the season. I don’t see why they would not move Shields for the right offer considering that Dayton Moore might lose his job this winter after the flop the Royals were this season. Moore could look to save his job by picking up some buy-low opportunities and prospects from liquidating Shields now while he has a season and a half worth of retention.
So that brings us to the price tag. In prospects, I doubt the Braves would have enough to tempt the Royals. However, that is not what I feel the Royals should be looking at. Moore, in order to gain some job security, needs to get some players who can impact his major league roster immediately or within the next year and luckily for the Braves that is where the majority of their young talent is.
Start things off with Medlen to replace James Shields in the Royals' rotation. While he is certainly no ace, Medlen will give them a cheap and retainable young starting pitcher who will help them stabilize the rotation in 2014. Next, include Jason Heyward. He can slot into right field for the Royals and see if he can gain consistency in another city where he may not be expected to be the face of the organization like he was tabbed to be in Atlanta. Finally, top off the package with the exciting Alex Wood. While some may be tempted to keep Wood with all the comparisons to Chris Sale that he’s garnered with his unorthodox mechanics, his future may very well be in the bullpen. What better time to capitalize on his trade value than now when he has yet to prove if he can stick in the rotation?
With the inclusion of so much talent, we can likely kill two birds with one stone (as Thomas pointed out that Wren likes to do) and get Moore to throw in Luke Hochevar.
The Braves can still prioritize adding a left-handed reliever with Joey Terdoslavich as the main piece of bait in those negotiations and they could go as far as to search for a left-handed bench bat that can handle the infield. For funsies, let’s say we grab Oliver Perez for Terdoslavich and Luis Valbuena from the Cubs for Todd Cunningham.
Rotation - James Shields, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Paul Maholm
Bullpen - LR David Carpenter, Anthony Varvaro, Oliver Perez, Luke Hochevar, Luis Avilan, Jordan Walden, Craig Kimbrel
Starters - CA Brian McCann, 1B Freddie Freeman, 2B Dan Uggla, 3B Chris Johnson, SS Andrelton Simmons, LF Evan Gattis, CF BJ Upton, RF Justin Upon
Bench - CA Gerald Laird, OF Reed Johnson, OF Jordan Schafer, IF Luis Valbuena, UT Paul Janish/Tyler Pastornicky
I smell a World Series contender. You’re welcome.
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The Braves will likely claim they are comfortable with their current starting pitching options. They will have Brandon Beachy returning to take Hudson’s slot in the rotation and will likely hope to have Paul Maholm return after a stint on the DL for a sprained wrist. While they still boast impressive starting pitching depth, it leaves me worried about who will fill out the postseason rotation.
My buddy, Thomas, covered how Kris Medlen had pitched his way into a position to lose his starting role upon Beachy’s return prior to the Hudson injury. Despite the sudden strangle hold Kris has gained to his starting role since yesterday, it doesn’t change the fact that he has been an average pitcher in 2013—which in my eyes should not change his status of being in jeopardy of losing his starting role. Combine that with the general distrust Maholm gives me as a not bad, but definitely not good pitcher, the uncertainty surrounding Beachy’s health and production ceiling coming back from Tommy John, and Alex Wood’s obvious lack of experience and it’s easy to understand why I feel the Atlanta Braves will be playing with fire if/when they say they are comfortable with their current starters.
That said, what should the Braves do about it? Pay up for an injury-prone Jake Peavy? Go after an unimpressive Bud Norris? Roll the dice on a flat out awful Josh Johnson? Ugh. I just threw up in my mouth a little bit thinking about those options. Luckily for you, I have a better idea. One that I’m fairly certain would be unpopular on face value, but I feel would increase the chances of a championship and create interesting possibilities for the winter. Are you ready? Wait for it. Very good. I commend your patience.
James Shields. Seriously.
The Royals have made Ervin Santana available recently and are practically guaranteeing themselves a sub-.500 finish to the season. I don’t see why they would not move Shields for the right offer considering that Dayton Moore might lose his job this winter after the flop the Royals were this season. Moore could look to save his job by picking up some buy-low opportunities and prospects from liquidating Shields now while he has a season and a half worth of retention.
So that brings us to the price tag. In prospects, I doubt the Braves would have enough to tempt the Royals. However, that is not what I feel the Royals should be looking at. Moore, in order to gain some job security, needs to get some players who can impact his major league roster immediately or within the next year and luckily for the Braves that is where the majority of their young talent is.
Start things off with Medlen to replace James Shields in the Royals' rotation. While he is certainly no ace, Medlen will give them a cheap and retainable young starting pitcher who will help them stabilize the rotation in 2014. Next, include Jason Heyward. He can slot into right field for the Royals and see if he can gain consistency in another city where he may not be expected to be the face of the organization like he was tabbed to be in Atlanta. Finally, top off the package with the exciting Alex Wood. While some may be tempted to keep Wood with all the comparisons to Chris Sale that he’s garnered with his unorthodox mechanics, his future may very well be in the bullpen. What better time to capitalize on his trade value than now when he has yet to prove if he can stick in the rotation?
With the inclusion of so much talent, we can likely kill two birds with one stone (as Thomas pointed out that Wren likes to do) and get Moore to throw in Luke Hochevar.
The Braves can still prioritize adding a left-handed reliever with Joey Terdoslavich as the main piece of bait in those negotiations and they could go as far as to search for a left-handed bench bat that can handle the infield. For funsies, let’s say we grab Oliver Perez for Terdoslavich and Luis Valbuena from the Cubs for Todd Cunningham.
Rotation - James Shields, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Paul Maholm
Bullpen - LR David Carpenter, Anthony Varvaro, Oliver Perez, Luke Hochevar, Luis Avilan, Jordan Walden, Craig Kimbrel
Starters - CA Brian McCann, 1B Freddie Freeman, 2B Dan Uggla, 3B Chris Johnson, SS Andrelton Simmons, LF Evan Gattis, CF BJ Upton, RF Justin Upon
Bench - CA Gerald Laird, OF Reed Johnson, OF Jordan Schafer, IF Luis Valbuena, UT Paul Janish/Tyler Pastornicky
I smell a World Series contender. You’re welcome.
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Twitter Feed: July 23
New start to a ongoing column. Welcome to the Twitter Feed where we look at news coming from tweets abou the Braves. You can follow me @WalkOffWalk1
- If you haven't seen Jason Heyward's ridiculously awesome catch from last night, the official Braves twitter has the video here. I recently wrote about the move of Heyward to center, believing that he was the only option the Braves had with B.J. Upton out. If you're curious, there is no way Jose Constanza or Reed Johnson make that grab. I'm less sure if Upton does. My gut tells me with Upton's range, speed, and experience in center, he would have got there. The catch wouldn't have been nearly as memorable. Some pile on Upton due to his offensive troubles, but his defense is still above-average.
- MLB Reports has a link to their look at Braves payroll moving forward. There's not a lot of info in the actual link, especially when you can visit Cot's for a far more in-depth look. I do enjoy the contention that the Braves don't like to move runners over. Not liking to do something is not the same as not being best suited to that one thing. Atlanta would be failing to maximize their strengths by playing "move-the-runner-over."
- According to 670 the Score, Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers appeared on the Mully & Hanley show in Chicago to say that it's a Jesse Crain to the Braves is a "done deal" if Crain proves himself to be healthy. I've avoided doing a Trade Target on Crain because I've never bought into Atlanta being a true contender for Crain's services. It's not that I don't believe he would be a wonderful pickup for the Braves or that I'm against getting him due to his right shoulder strain he suffered at the end of June. Instead, I have felt the price would be prohibitive. Crain looks like he will make it back before the end of the month. This could get interesting.
- In two separate tweets, David O'Brien said the Braves were possibly scouting the White Sox's Matt Lindstrom and Minnesota lefty Brian Duensing. Lindstrom fits the mold of the rental, though the Braves could bring him back for $4M. Rather than do that, I think they would probably pay the $500K to buy out the option (or even get the White Sox to fit the bill). Lindstrom has been quite effective this season against righties, but has never been good against lefties (.768 OPS career, .975 this season). Expensive price tag for a ROOGY. Duensing was miscast for most of his career as a starter. He's been better (I guess) this season with a 3.33 FIP. His career splits indicate he is tough on lefties, though he has shown no platoon splits this season. He earned $1.3M in his first year of arbitration.
- Couple of tweets from Grant McAuley brought this information on Reed Johnson. His go-ahead pinch-hit single was his eleventh hit as a pinch-hitter this season, good for second this season. In 2011, Johnson led the league in pinch-hits with 18.
- One more tidbit on Heyward's catch comes in nerdy goodness by Adam Burnett. "Heyward covered 96.2 feet in 3.9 seconds for the catch. That’s a speed of 16.8 MPH, or the pace of running a mile in 3.5 minutes."
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