A Waiver Trade Match from Heaven

A homecoming for 2 former Orioles.

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Flickr

It was 3-4 days ago that Braves fans received word that Jim Johnson and R.A. Dickey were placed on revocable waivers. While they’re likely not the only players that were placed on revocable waivers, those were the 2 that made it to the mainstream media. My guess, there are at least 3 more guys that the Braves pushed out there but weren’t comfortable in letting the news leak to their fan-base (Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis).

For those not in the know, if a player(s) is claimed on revocable waivers, the 2 teams have 48 hours to work out a deal, and the deal could be as simple as allowing the other team take the full value of the contract(s). If a deal cannot be worked out, then the team that placed said player(s) on revocable waivers pulls the player(s) back and said player(s) have to remain with the team for the rest of the season.

 I’ve been scouring the MLB standings looking for matches in a deal for some of the Braves more expensive veterans. Make no mistake, these are tricky and, for the most part, pipedreams. However, I think I might have stumbled upon a great match. The Orioles, even with a starting pitching ERA that nears 6 and is 29th in all of baseball, remain only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. The writing’s on the proverbial wall for this team and it may be their last time to contend for the foreseeable future. But nonetheless, they are in the thick of it. While they’re likely not in a position to make big moves as their farm is very weak and they’d need to keep any MLB talent around through this season, they could look for small boosts to aid in their push to Wild Card berth. And it just so happens that the Braves could aid in giving that push.

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Both Jim Johnson and Nick Markakis have a long-running history with the Orioles. Jim played with them from 2006-2013, taking on the full-time closer role in 2012 and had 50 and 51 save seasons in ‘12 and ‘13. Nick Markakis was the beloved right-fielder for the O’s from 2006-2014, doing very much the same as he’s done for the Braves with the exception that he was younger and about 10-15% better in all facets of his game. They were both well-liked in the clubhouse and many faces from their time there are still in-house and would welcome them back. There are tricks to this as both guys are under contract for 2018. While Jim still has some perceived value in a reliever’s role, Markakis is pretty much shot and is playing at a replacement level. The positive is that the guys the O’s are running out there in LF are playing at the level of a leper. Yes...it’s been bad. But the Braves aren’t going to get the Orioles to pay the entire contracts of both players without taking a hit themselves...no sirree. To do a deal like this, the Braves will have to take something back, and that’s where we turn to Ubaldo Jimenez.

Jimenez, who once threw a no-hitter against the Braves when he was slinging for the Rockies, has been downright putrid in an Orioles uniform and has posted a 6.31 ERA this year, is owed 13.5MM for the 2017 season, but is a free agent in 2018. I feel like the Orioles would be happy to wash their hands of Ubaldo and welcome back 2 guys that they know and love.

 So, here’s the deal:
 Braves get Ubaldo Jimenez, Chance Sisco

Orioles get R.A. Dickey, Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM

Considering the Braves would be taking 4.25MM of Ubaldo’s salary and the Orioles would be taking on 7.5MM for 2017, the 3MM is there to offset the cost. In return, the Braves get a prospect that has somewhat fallen from grace that can head to AAA and try to recapture the magic that made him one of the game’s best catching prospects. I’ve not talked about Dickey going until the proposed deal, but he makes a lot of sense for them. There are guys in their rotation that are underachieving and throwing a knuckleballer right in the midst could be the boost that’s needed to make them successful.

This is only 1 of many ways that the Braves could look to in dealing veterans, but if they wait too long or til offseason, the chances of making a deal without eating a HUGE chunk of cash becomes less and less. What say you? Would you alter it? Got another idea? Let’s hear from the peanut gallery!

 Go Braves!

Monday Recap: Sweep, Buying/Selling, Early Freeman at 3B Metrics

Welcome to this week's quick Monday Recap. With just three games to review because of the All-Star Break, we won't have to spend too much time on them. Want to point out a few things before we look back at the week that just concluded. We posted our Midseason Top 50 Prospects last week with contributors Ryan Cothran and Stephen Tolbert pitching in. Ryan's been with WOW for awhile now, but Tolbert recently joined. He's already posted two columns - one on the prospect of trading Ozzie Albies and the other on comparing Sean Newcomb and Rich Hill's respective spin rates on their curveballs. Both are worthy of your consideration.

And with that said, it's on with the show.

July 10-13, Idle
All-Star Break

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July 14, 4-3 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta twice gave up single-run leads, but Freddie Freeman put the Braves ahead for good with a two-run single in the 8th. Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a single before Brandon Phillips doubled to set the stage for Freeman's heroics. Freeman also broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth with a deep home run. Atlanta got their other run in the first when Inciarte doubled and came around later in the inning on a Matt Kemp two-out single. R.A. Dickey continued his solid work, throwing six innings and allowing just one on eight hits and two walks. He also struck out four. Sam Freeman allowed a home run to Paul Goldschmidt while Jose Ramirez wasn't helped by a bad thow by Tyler Flowers on a stolen base attempt. His throw went into center field and allowed a runner to reach third. A wild pitch briefly put the D'Backs on top. Jim Johnson worked a perfect ninth with a strikeout of Goldschmidt to end the game.

July 15, 8-5 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
The Braves used 14 hits and two home runs from each of their last two opening day second basemen to score eight runs and win Saturday's night affair. Phillips got the Braves on the board with a game-tying home run in the third, his eighth. He then put the Braves on top in the fifth with a RBI double. The lead was short lived as a pair of runs, charged to Mike Foltynewicz put Arizona ahead in the sixth. The Braves would fight back in the bottom half of the inning. With old friend Randall Delgado on the mound, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis led off the inning with singles. Delgado got the next two, but Dansby Swanson worked a walk. Lane Adams followed with a bases-clearing pinch-hit double. Andrew Chafin replaced Delgado and his first pitch was hit by Ender Inciarte for a RBI single to score Adams and put the Braves up 6-3. Kurt Suzuki picked up a RBI in the 7th and after the Diamondbacks scored twice in the 8th to pull closer, Jace Peterson led off the 8th with a pinch-hit home run that still hasn't landed. Johnson cruised through the ninth for another save. It was an average night for Folty, who struggled with his control over his 5.1 innings.

July 16, 7-1 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta gets to .500 with an efficient offensive attack. They would leave just four runners on base while scoring seven runs. In the third, Matt Kemp bashed a three-run bomb and Matt Adams smacked his 15th later in the frame. That was the game-changing frame for the Braves, who scored in each of the first four innings. Brandon Phillips doubled three times and drove in tow runs while Ender Inciarte singled twice. Jaime Garcia pitched well, allowing just one run in seven innings. He scattered four singles, walked three, and struck out seven. Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris worked perfect frames with Morris striking out a pair. The sweep at home was the Braves' first sweep at SunTrust since the four-game set to open the park against the Padres in mid-April.

This week's Record: 3-0
Season Record: 45-45, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9.5 GB

Minor League Week in Review
Gwinnett: 3-1...40-52, 2nd Place in the North, 9.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-5...6-17 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the Southern, 6 GB
Florida: 2-3...9-13 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the North, 4.5 GB
Rome: 1-4...8-12 (2nd Half), 6th Place in the Southern, 7.5 GB
Danville: 2-4...11-13, 3rd Place in the West, 7 GB
GCL: 3-3...9-9, 2nd Place in Northeast, 1.5 GB
DSL: 1-4...11-24, 7th Place in Northwest, 13 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves stay at home for three more games with the Cubs coming for a visit for two nights games before a matinee on Wednesday. It's the first time the Braves have faced the Cubs this season and they'll return the favor at the end of August by visiting Wrigley. After Wednesday's game, the Braves head on a cross-country trip to visit the Dodgers for four games to finish the week. The first three will be late night games for Braves fans while Sunday's will be a mid-afternoon start at 4:10 EST.

Three Last Things
1) Buying Or Selling?

It's hard not to have this debate. After sweeping Arizona, the Braves have reached .500 for the first time since early April. They are midway through a tough part of their schedule that included games with the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and a second series with Arizona in addition to the one that just completed. They've held their own so far, winning 5-of-9.

The Braves General Manager, John Coppolella, has been attached to Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Justin Verlander, and Michael Fulmer. Atlanta is also said to have an interest in Jurickson Profar. What the Braves ultimately may do may be decided by July 26. At that point, the Braves will have finished a 10-game stretch against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. If they are still at .500 or higher, the Braves might be an aggressive buyer. If they slip, they could sell.

Regardless, Braves fans universally agree about one thing - it feels good to care again.

2) Roster Issues

For the first time in a long time, the Braves might be sending down productive players because of a roster crunch. With Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez likely to return tomorrow, Lane Adams might be sent back to Gwinnett. Adams has been one of the few guys able to come off the bench and get a pinch hit here-and-there for the Braves. His six pinch-hits not only lead the team, but count for a quarter of all of Atlanta's pinch-hits this season. He's also belted a homer and added a double. But with Santana fresh off a five-hit game on a rehab assignment and super utility player Rodriguez ready to contribute, Adams seems pushed out for now. Jace Peterson, who joined Adams and Santana as the only Braves to have a pinch-hit homerun this season on Sunday, will likely head down as well.

Further roster decisions will have to be made in regards to a pitcher. Dan Winkler began his rehab assignment a month ago and is only given 30 days before the Braves have to make a decision. He's struck out nine over as many minor league innings, but also gave up eight runs. His rehab appears either halted, though. He hasn't pitched in ten days.

Something similar happened to Chaz Roe. His rehab assignment was halted after the Braves designated him for assignment. It didn't make much news, but on Thursday, he was outrighted to Gwinnett. I have seen reports that Winkler's rehab received a rare 30-day extension. Over the coming days, we'll see if that was accurate or if Winkler went through a similar fate as Roe. (Edit: According to Mark Bowman, it was accurate as the Braves have extended Winkler's rehab 30 days. H/t to Dan Keetz for this.)

3) Early Defensive Metrics Unkind to FF3B

It takes a long time for defensive metrics to really even out to the point that they tell us anything valuable. Often, we don't want to put too much importance in them without a career baseline to compare numbers to.

So...don't take this seriously.

Freddie Freeman's defensive metrics are HORRIBLE at third base! -89.3 UZR/10! Wow! He's handled ten plays and committed an error. Of the three plays in his zone, he's made two successful plays. In addition, Freeman is 9-of-10 on routine plays according to Inside Edge Fielding. He's 0-for-2 on remote plays (expected rate is between 1 and 10%) To be fair, he hasn't made a remote play at first base since 2014.

Well, what did you expect from a first baseman playing third base anyway? Of course, the Braves have also won a number of those games so they are getting exactly what they hoped for.

Saturday Stats Pack: Catching, Atlanta's Non-Manager, Acuna's Exploits

Johan Camargo's Shocking Season

Camargo started at shortstop Friday night and singled once in three trips to the plate. His average actually dropped a tad to .327 in the process. That's how's Camargo's surprising rookie campaign has gone to this point. Over 40 games, the switch-hitter has on-based .355 due to just a 4.5% walk rate but has shown new-found pop to keep his slugging a shade under .500. His numbers are remarkably similar to his Gwinnett metrics this season, though with a higher strikeout percentage. He's also benefitted from a .410 BABIP. Rather than address the chances his production remains stellar - that's not the purpose of this column - it's worth noting that we started to see some changes from Camargo last year (his ISO went up nearly 40 points) and at the age of 23-years-old, it's not unheard of to add muscle. To that possibility, people I've spoken to point out he that looks bigger and stronger than ever before. If the BABIP does fall - and I predict that it will - Camargo still could turn into a nice piece that belongs on a major league roster and maybe not all that glitters is gold, but in Camargo's case, some of it might just be.

The Starting Rotation Is Close to Something

Tonight, Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Braves. With a good game, he could push his fWAR over 1.0 for the season. Right now, the Braves still do not have a 1-win starter and only Jim Johnson has crossed that plateau as a pitcher for the Braves. Garcia is sitting at 0.9, slightly ahead of both Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb at 0.7. R.A. Dickey, whose recent success has been a big factor in the Braves looking better of late, has upped his season total to 0.6. To put that in another way, many people laughed at the Padres for starting Jhoulys Chacin on opening day - a guy the Braves gave away for a rookie-level lefty project last season. Chacin currently has a 1.2 fWAR. Granted, WAR is not the end-all, be-all of numbers, but it's a pretty damning reality of the state of the Braves' rotation.

Catching Strength

One surprising thing about the Braves this year has come from the production behind the plate. While Tyler Flowers impressed in limited action last year, not a lot of people felt he would repeat the effort this season considering mediocre career numbers. Hardly anyone thought Kurt Suzuki would add much with the bat, either. The results so far speak for themselves. Of 30 major league teams, only the Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, and Astros have a higher fWAR from their catchers than Atlanta's 2.3. The Braves rank third in catcher batting average, second in OBP, and ninth in slugging. The .352 wOBA ranks fourth while the 115 wRC+ is good for fifth. Atlanta has been blessed with tremendous catcher production over the years. Since 2000, they've twice reached 6 fWAR from the backstop position. While that is far too high of a goal right now, this year's unit has a shot for a 4 fWAR season - which would be the seventh such season since 2000 by Atlanta's catchers. Not too shabby for a combined $4.5 million in base salary.

The Other Freeman

I still don't know what to think of Sam Freeman. In a way, I like him more now after his ERA has been rising than I did before. And yes, this is a strange time to bring up Freeman after giving up three runs against the Nationals before the break and surrendering a home run by Paul Goldschmidt yesterday to blow a lead. Is Freeman a shutdown reliever? No. But can he be a useful arm? His 57.5% groundball rate, 3.80 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA suggests that he can. The problem is that those numbers might be soft. Throughout his career, he's carried reverse splits in parts of six major league seasons. Against righties, he's been a bit more useful with a .221/.323/.300 slash and a 20% strikeout rate. On the other hand, lefties have handled him with a .261/.377/.390 slash while striking out 24% of the time. This year, he's been effective in a LOOGY role with a .212/.281/.288 slash against lefties and a 30% strikeout rate. It's righties he can't get out (.397 opposing OBP). Is small sample size the reason for this? My gut says yeah, but relievers are a strange breed. Their numbers can fluctuate one way or the other. Until Freeman proves his career rate is more accurate and his left-hand split climbs, you have to relegate him to LOOGY time. However...it might already be doing that. Since June 1, the last 35 lefties he's faced have as many hits as they do strikeouts - ten. His righty split isn't all that good either (.275/.370/.350, 46 batters faced). I hear that A.J. Minter guy is coming along, though...

Snitker: The Non-Manager

One of the most unnerving things about Brian Snitker is how the game manages him, not the other way around. A questionable bullpen that has allowed the third most runs-per-game would likely prompt a manager to make a lot of bullpen moves. That's compounded by a rotation that often struggles to avoid big innings. However, Snitker has gone to the pen 286 times - about the league average. That's not in itself a terrible thing - you don't want to burn out your relievers, after all. But under Snitker, Atlanta really plays up bullpen roles over strategy. Get six innings out of your starter and then follow the flow chart. Are you losing? Go with your young and unproven arms for one-to-two innings a piece. Are you winning? Go to Jose Ramirez in the seventh, Arodys Vizcaino in the eighth, and Jim Johnson in the ninth? Tied and on the road? Jason Motte/Ian Krol in the seventh followed by Ramirez and Vizcaino. Wait until you have the lead for Jim Johnson. You can bet he's lost without Vizcaino and Motte right now. There's little-to-no strategy involved here and the numbers point to that. Atlanta relievers are tied for the third fewest outings with runners on base. That means they often come in with the bases empty - typically to start a frame. They've thrown the second-fewest multiple-inning outings (1.1 ING and above) and are a bit below-the-NL average in outings of fewer than three outs (i.e. specialists). They also have the second-smallest average outs-per-game. Those numbers suggest that Snitker expects his relievers to be one-inning guys in assigned roles. Good managers make decisions based on the needs of the game. Snitker manages like he's still in the minor leagues. Give your starters innings and reach a pitch count. Give your relievers an inning and go to the next. There's little thinking involved and the Braves have suffered as a result.

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Teenage Pop

Ronald Acuna posted a .895 OPS at Double-A. That's not just outstanding, but enough to convince the Atlanta Braves to promote him to Triple-A. He's only 19 years-old and that won't change until a week before Christmas. He'll have over 30 games in the International League before the end of the season - should he not get promoted before that. It's rare enough to be in your Age-19 season in the International League and that alone is an accomplishment. Last year's only teenage rookie position player was Acuna's new teammate, Ozzie Albies. But what would happen if Acuna not only stayed in the IL as a teenager but produced at a similar clip as his pre-AAA days? For starters, let's add some context using one of the game's best players - and the MLB.com twitter account's favorite player - Bryce Harper. Over a 21-game run in 2012 as a 19-year-old, the man with the hair hit just .243/.325/.365. It's difficult to find teenagers who received at least a 30-game attempt in the International League, let alone find successful ones. The last one to post an OPS over .800 as a teenager in the International League - brace yourself, friends - was Melvin Upton Jr. Back in 2004, the 19-year-old hit .311/.411/.519. By the way, when our old buddy was doing that, Acuna was seven.

Cuban Imports Raking - When Healthy

The Dominican Summer League Braves have struggled this season with one of the weaker pitching staffs and a just as weak offensive club averaging 4.31 runs per game in a league in which teams average 4.95 per. They are not being helped by the absence of Juan Carlos Negret, who hasn't played since June 30. I am not sure for the reason, but Negret was hitting a robust .306/.451/.528 over 19 games with 11 extra-base hits and eight steals before disappearing. Recent addition and fellow Cuban-born outfielder, Henry Quintero, could help fill the void. Over his first three games, Quintero went 4-for-8 with three doubles and a triple. Unfortunately, he left that third game after being hit by a pitch to lead off the first and hasn't played in the team's last three games. With the DSL offense slumping, it would be big for them to get either one of these Cuban imports back.

Danville's Pitching Staff Holding Up

With most of last year's top picks already in Rome and this year's top two drafted arms in the GCL, the Danville pitching staff could have been in line for a bad season. So far, it's held up to post the second-best ERA in the Appalachian League and its 4.05 ERA is nearly 60-points below the league-average. It hasn't been all good as the shoddy defense has led to 27 unearned runs through 22 games. Still, Danville has looked pretty decent despite the lack of star power. Kyle Muller is the currently ranked prospect with the D-Braves, placing 16th in our recent Midseason Top 50. He's K'd 26 in 23 innings while walking ten over five starts.

Monday Roundup: Big Flies Lead to Big Week

A full slate of games last week as the Braves welcomed both the Giants and Brewers to town. Let's dive in.

June 19, 9-0 WIN vs. Giants
Mr. Ryan Cothran recently pointed out how R.A. Dickey's splits-by-month improve once the temperatures warm up. Last Monday, he made Cothran look really good with seven masterful frames. He yielded just three hits and walked one while striking out a half-dozen. The game was a close one heading into the eighth, but things got nutty as the Giants' pen imploded. Danny Santana had the big knock of the frame with a three-run pinch-hit homer that may still be in orbit. Matt Adams also hit a homer, his 11th, and was one of four Braves to notch multi-hit games.

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June 20, 6-3 LOSS vs. Giants
Like the previous day, the eighth inning saw a lot of action. Unfortunately, it wasn't the kind of action the Braves needed to see. Julio Teheran had breezed through seven innings before a Dansby Swanson error on what should have been a double play was immediately followed by a three-run home run. After another hit and a sacrifice, Ian Krol entered and another two errors (charged to Krol and Adams) helped to pad the Giants' lead. Atlanta got one back in the bottom half on a Matt Kemp ground-rule double, but the Braves couldn't scratch across any more runs across. Johan Camargo finished a homer short of the cycle.

June 21, 5-3 WIN vs. Giants (11 ING)
With former Brave Cory Gearrin on the mound, Matt Kemp delivered a two-run homer in the eleventh as the Braves won in walk-off fashion. The homer provided some solace for the Braves after wasting a 3-1 lead in the late innings. It was Jim Johnson's fifth blown save of the year when he surrendered a Hunter Pence game-tying solo bomb in the ninth. Atlanta won despite only managing seven hits because three of them went screaming toward the stands. In addition to Kemp's 12th homer, Matt Adams hit his 12th as well and Tyler Flowers smacked his sixth. Sean Newcomb's third start was solid. He scattered three hits, including a RBI triple which was the only blemish on his record. He walked just one and K'd a trio.

June 22, 12-11 WIN vs. Giants
A wild one was played after a nearly 90-minute rain delay to begin the night. Jaime Garcia got lit up to the tune of a half-dozen runs over 4.1 innings. Still, a crazy fifth inning gave the Braves just enough offense to win this one. Down 6-4, Brandon Phillips smacked the first pitch he saw of the frame for a homer. After a pair of singles chased Giants starter, Matt Cain, Matt Adams brought home a run on another single to tie it. The theme continued with a go-ahead RBI single by Kurt Suzuki. Johan Camargo made the first out of the inning count with a sacrifice fly with the bases loaded before Lane Adams gave the Braves their second pinch-hit three-run homer of the week. It was Adams' first homer of his major league career. Danny Santana, who entered as a pinch-runner for Matt Kemp earlier in the inning, finished the scoring with a RBI single to plate Phillips (who had walked in his second PA of the inning). All told, the Braves scored eight runs and sent 13 batters to the plate. It was nearly not enough as the Giants fought back to score three off Ian Krol (a costly Lane Adams error led to two of those runs being unearned) and added two more runs off Jim Johnson, but the Braves closer finished the game with his 14th save. The long night was even harder on the Giants, who had a game the next day at home. The rain delay kept the game from starting until 9:01 and it ended around 12:30 AM. They left the park about 90 minutes later and hopped a cross-country plane. Jet-lagged and exhausted, the Giants would lose to the Mets the next evening, 11-4.

June 23, 5-4 WIN vs Brewers
Braves built a pair of three-run leads but had to hold on for a one-run win without their closer available in this one. Mike Foltynewicz was good, though had some big-pitch innings. He finished with 9 K's in just 5 innings and only one run allowed. He walked three and threw 104 pitches. The Brewers scored a run off Sam Freeman and added two more against Jose Ramirez before Arodys Vizcaino pitched around a leadoff double for his first save of the year. The defense played a big role in the final two frames. With runners on first-and-second and only one out in a one-run ballgame, Jesus Aguilar rocketed a ball toward third where Johan Camargo fielded it cleanly and quickly got the ball over to second. Brandon Phillips turned a flawless double play from there to end the threat. In the ninth, following the leadoff double, Dansby Swanson ranged to his right to field a grounder and didn't hesitate on a strong throw to third to cut down the leading runner. The next Brewers hitter smacked a long fly ball that would have scored the runner. Swanson also caught a dying liner to end the game. Brandon Phillips homered for the second consecutive game, a solo bomb in the first. He added a RBI double later in the game to spearhead the Braves' attack.

June 24, 3-1 WIN vs. Brewers
Stay hot, R.A. Dickey. The knuckleballer tossed seven superb innings and the bullpen had an uneventful night for a change. Brandon Phillips did it again, homering for the third consecutive night. His two-run bomb broke a 1-1 tie and was all the edge Atlanta and Dickey would need. The first inning was a weird frame. It included a questionable balk call and an ejection of Milwaukee Brewers utility man, Nick Franklin, for arguing that the Braves were given too much time to decide whether or not to challenge a play. They ultimately didn't, but it still meant Franklin had an early night even though he wasn't playing. In all of the chaos, there was the Brewers only run, which scored on a bases-loaded fielder's choice. Atlanta would tie it in the first on a two-out single by Tyler Flowers. The Braves catcher was down 0-2 against Matt Garza, but worked the count full before rocketing a single through the infield to plate Phillips.

June 25, 7-0 LOSS vs. Brewers
Julio Teheran didn't have to wait long for his day to implode like he did earlier in the week. He retired just nine batters and was charged with all seven runs. He walked two and K'd three during his short day. Luke Jackson allowed one of those runs to score after he inherited it, but that was the only bad thing anyone could have said about Jackson's outing. He went four shutout innings, scattering two hits, and striking out four. He didn't walk a batter. Ender Inciarte had two of Atlanta's five total hits - all singles.

This Week's Record: 5-2
Season Record: 36-39, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9 GB

Minor League Week in Review (Briefly)
Gwinnett: 3-3...38-36, 2nd Place in the South, 7.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-2...2-2, 2nd Place in South (2nd Half), 1 GB
Florida: 2-4...2-2, 3rd Place in North (2nd Half), 1 GB
Rome: 2-2...2-2, 2nd Place in Southern (2nd Half), 1 GB
Danville: 2-2...2-2, 3rd Place in East, 1 GB
GCL: Opens play this week
DSL: 3-3...8-10, 7th Place in Northwest, 2.5 GB

Three Last Things
1) Things Are About to Get Tough

Sunday marked the 24th game of June. Atlanta has done well with a 14-10 record. All but six of those games came at home via a quirk in the schedule. Further, only a half-dozen of those games came against teams with a .500 or better record. That will change soon.

Following an off day today, Atlanta heads out west for six in California with the Padres and A's. Then comes a buzzsaw that includes 2 vs. HOU, 4 @ DC, 3 vs. ARZ, 3 vs. CHC, 4 @ LAD, and 3 @ ARZ. The Braves will finish July with four games in Philly. As they arrive in the City of Brotherly Love, we'll know a lot more about this team. To this point, only 20 games total have come against teams with a .500 or better record (they're 9-11). In July, they are scheduled to have 19 games against those kind of teams. They'll also play 21 games on the road between now and the trading deadline and are 16-19 on the road this season. For reference, the four-game set in Washington comes right before the All-Star Break.

Some people are buying in. They believe the Braves are better than advertised and will surprise some people. If they are right, July has to be just as impressive as June despite a much tougher slate of games. If you want the Braves to be buyers, they need to continue their recent success against the Astros, Nationals, Diamondbacks and so on. They'll need more games like Friday and Saturday when they took down an impressive Brewers club, and fewer games like Sunday, when their "ace" was blasted for seven runs.

2) Jose Ramirez is Finding Out Regression is Tough

Despite being one of the most trustworthy arms in the pen this year, many were slow to buy in on Jose Ramirez as a true asset. Those that waved off the bandwagon over-and-over may have made that right call. Over his last 14 games, Ramirez has allowed eight runs in 10.1 ING, blown two saves, and walked ten compared to just seven strikeouts. He's also allowed two homeruns.

But we had to see this coming, no? His xFIP heading into June was above 4.00 despite strong WHIP numbers. The belief was that he had been very lucky to this point with a super-low BABIP helping to hide some of the warts. In June, those warts have come out in full force with a 9.02 FIP/7.84 xFIP. While short sample size concerns negate too much value being placed on those numbers, Ramirez has struggled considerably with his control and after some early-season success in inducing weak contact, he is no longer able to rely on that.

Ramirez needs to adjust quickly. He's walked a batter in each of his last seven games, which resembles the guy who was cast to the minors during the first few games of the 2016 season.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

3) Oh, Julio

I've always been a big fan of Julio Teheran. Back in 2010, when he climbed from Rome to Mississippi, I was anxious to see him dominate in the majors. I even stayed positive during his iffy 2012 campaign where he struggled as the Braves tinkered with his delivery. And I was rewarded for my patience with four seasons and a solid major league pitcher.

Sure, he wasn't an "ace," but he was still very good. His 9.9 fWAR between 2013 and 2016 ranked 35th in the game. He was a durable second starter who simply needed an ace to team with. The Braves were never able to find that, of course, as they cycled through Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Shelby Miller. Nevertheless, if you are rebuilding and putting a focus on starting pitching, the reasonable belief is that one of those flamethrowing kids would take the ace mantle and run with it. That would push Teheran back and the Braves could roll with a solid rotation.

But...this season happened.

I don't really know what is wrong with Teheran. There's nothing in his release point or movement that really stands out. His frequency of using one pitch over another is not too far removed from last year, though I've never understood why he stopped featuring his curveball as much after 2014. His velocity is about where you expect it to be and he can still reach back and hit 96 mph when he wants to. If you ignored the actual results on the field and just scoured the pitch data, you wouldn't come away thinking anything was too out of the ordinary. But nobody pays a pitcher for a consistent release point or velocity. They pay them to take those things and turn them into positive results and right now, there simply is none to speak of for Teheran.

And it's really difficult to understand why his numbers are just so awful. The strike% is right there. His first-strike percentage, the pitch we are told is so important, is at a career-high. About a quarter of his strikeouts end in the backwards K, a career-high. He's pitching ahead as frequently as ever with only 31% of his matchups ending with the batter ahead in the count (right in tune with his career).

Perhaps he's hurt. Perhaps he's in his head. Perhaps he's throwing rather than pitching. Perhaps the dismissal of Roger McDowell has had an effect. Perhaps it's mechanical. Perhaps SunTrust Park just doesn't work for him.

Whatever the case may be, the Braves aren't going very far this year with this version of Teheran. And it's just damn ugly to watch.

Walk-Off Talk 1.5: Finding A Partner (Part 2)

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Today, we look at four more pending free agent assets who don't have markets that aren't nearly as robust. Events occur in real time.)

Ryan,

@JMotte30

Last year, John Coppolella turned Hunter Cervenka into Michael Mader and Anfernee Seymour so we know the guy can find quality players for a reliever, but Jason Motte isn't Cervenka. He's not left-handed, he's not 26, and he doesn't carry a half-decade of team control. Is it even worth talking about Motte as a tradeable asset?

To be fair, Motte has been a nice find. He's kept his ERA around 2.00, picked up three holds, and stranded 11 of 15 runners he's inherited. But there are some issues here and that's not only related to the fact he turns 35 today. One, he's been about as lucky as a pitcher can be. The guy has an ERA nearly four runs under what his FIP is at. He's found a way to carry a negative WAR with a 2.14 ERA, which should be impossible. He has a 100% LOB%. His BABIP is a hyper-low .179.

Motte's going to crash and he's going to crash quick. And none of the numbers I cited are secret. While some teams are more stats-savvy than others, it's hard for me to accept that anyone thinks Motte has pitched as well as his ERA states. While we could certainly talk about some teams who are need of relief help, I see Motte more likely to be an added piece in deals involving Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips (or others we'll talk about later). Similar to how Jim Johnson was basically attached to the Hector Olivera (CHANGE TO He Who Must Not Be Named) deal. Am I wrong? Do you think there are teams that are going to actually target Motte?

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Tommy,

No. Next?  Just kidding. I think you’re spot on when it comes to Motte as he’ll be a guy that gets attached to another player, if at all! He’s someone that the Braves fans should appreciate this year as he’s been brought in the midst of madness with runners galore and has stranded 11 of 15. Forget that some balls are hit so hard that they nearly take off the infielders’ gloves right before they double up the guy running back to 2nd, that’s a pretty remarkable feat. Velcro him to someone and let’s get another young flamethrower up here.

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Ryan,

I think we will also have similar reactions to the next two players - R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. Let's address the knuckleballer first. He is coming off possibly his best start as a Brave where he tossed seven quality innings against the Giants. I say it was possibly his best start because eleven days before that, he had a Game Score v. 2.0 of 82 against the Phillies, which slightly edges the 81 he put up against San Francisco. Unfortunately, those starts were sandwiched around an eight-run, three-homer affair against the Nats. Since the beginning of 2013, Dickey has a FIP of 4.68 and it's only getting higher.

The righty does carry a - relatively speaking - affordable $8M club option for 2018, but will anyone bite on Dickey (ouch)? It seems hard for me to find a match. Maybe a team like the Red Sox who like the versatility of having a knuckleballer who can serve as a swingman? They lost Steven Wright after all and kept Tim Wakefield around despite some gross numbers toward the end of his career. That's about all I can come up with at this point. A few more games like last weekend, though, and things could change in a hurry.

As for Colon, I know you are going to suggest the Mets and honestly, it's the only option I see as well. Though, I kind of look at it like Julio Franco in reverse. The ageless one left the Braves for the Mets and really struggled in '07. They released him in mid-July and three days later, the Braves added him for the remainder of the season. I see the Mets maybe pouncing on Colon (ouch?) should the Braves cut him, but hard for me to see them giving the Braves anything - even a non-prospect.

And by the way, I think I'm being optimistic here in including two teams that might have any interest whatsoever at this point in either Dickey or Colon.

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Tommy,

Let’s talk about R.A. Dickey and the history of his knuckleball: it gets better with the age of a season. For his career, his ERA during months of March/April is over 5. In May, 4.41. From there?

• June- 3.50
• July- 4.14
• August- 3.89
• September/Oct- 3.45

If there’s a team that knows this about Dickey, he could most definitely be looked at as an innings eater that could keep them in the game. However, that doesn’t negate the current numbers and that his ERA is 4.91. I like your idea about the Red Sox and there could be a match there, but aside from some salary relief, I don’t think there’s reason to discuss return at this point as it likely will be a player of little to no impact.

As for Bartolo, I think it’s Mets or bust, and if the Mets have an underperforming player they’d like to give the Braves in return for Bartolo, that’d be fine with me. On Twitter a few weeks back, I suggested a Bartolo for Josh Smoker deal. Smoker would have to be inserted on the 40-man, but he’s a LH flamethrower that’s finding success in the minors, but hasn’t translated to the bigs yet. Send Mets Bartolo, pay all but 1MM of his salary, and get a lottery ticket in return.

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Ryan,

Smoker? I hardly knew her.

Sorry. I mean, I’ll take any assets as I can for Colon as long as it doesn’t add to the financial bottom line, though I have to admit that I don’t have a lot of faith there is much chance of a deal.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Moving on to the Braves’ final one-year contract, let’s look at Kurt Suzuki. Back when the Braves signed Suzuki, I was a little disappointed. I didn't see the point in handing over the backup catcher gig to Suzuki over going with an open competition between Anthony Recker and a cast of thousands. So far, though, Suzuki has been pretty darn impressive. I'll take a wRC+ of 91 out of a backup catcher especially when he's ninth in the league in outside-of-the-zone strike percentage according to Statcorner.com.

It wouldn't be the worst thing to bring him back for 2018 depending on how he finishes this season, but if another team is looking for stability behind the plate and is willing to serve up a prospect or two, I'm definitely going to consider things.

• Arizona - The Diamondbacks have the worst fWAR among their catchers in the majors. Chris Iannetta and Jeff Mathis are both underperforming veterans, though Iannetta has mashed eight homers. Finally, there is Chris Hermann, who hit well last year, but has returned to the third catcher status that followed his career in Minnesota. Both Iannetta and Mathis score well in pitch framing, though Hermann does not. I imagine the Diamondbacks would be more interested in a better solution than Suzuki, but the market is thin and Suzuki might be one of their best options should they seek an improvement.
    
• Toronto - Russell Martin has underperformed, but Suzuki would not steal his playing time. Rather, this is about depth. Toronto started the season with our old friend Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate as the backup, but after he managed just a single in 26 PA (with 16 strikeouts!), the Jays moved on to Luke Maile, a 26 year-old in his third year who has hit .185/.211/.292 over 245 PA. The Jays could definitely use some help here.
    
• Cleveland - Roberto Perez was a bit of a postseason name, but he's hit just .159/.235/.216 this season. Yan Gomez isn't exactly lighting it up, either. Both do provide good defense and Perez is a particularly gifted framer. They don't seem like a good match on paper, but they might be interested in adding some depth.
   
• Washington - Matt Wieters' great start is a distant memory. He's reached 0.0 fWAR and nobody is talking anymore about how the Braves should have got him. Jose Lobaton, his backup, is a great receiver, but with Wieters cooling, might the Nats be interested in a better bat behind him? 

On one hand, the market isn't huge for Suzuki, though you could make an argument that half (if not more) of the league could use a better backup catcher and Suzuki is one of the better ones in baseball this season at providing just that. Do you think there might be abother player here I haven't listed?

----------------------------------------------

Thanks for asking, Tommy.

While I’ve had a few others that on the surface look like matches for Suzuki (Angels, Red Sox, Rockies), I think you’ve covered the main players. However….

I think the team that really could use Suzuki is a team you’ve discussed, and that is the Diamondbacks. They’re having a pretty good year and could use a fresh veteran presence behind the plate. There’s a LHP out of Vandy in their system that isn’t putting up great numbers at AA despite having great strikeout numbers: Jared Miller. He’s the perfect kind of upside for the Braves to take a risk on and he’s performing poorly enough to where the Diamondbacks would trade him.

But let it be known, I want to see the Braves extend Suzuki. I was of the same opinion as you when he was first signed, but his value as a backup to Tyler has been...well...valuable. I like 2 veteran guys catching our young guys going forward and I’d like to see these 2 back behind the dish in 2018. Obviously, the Braves could do both, trade him then re-sign him in the offseason, and that would be the best of both worlds as long as Suzuki is cool with it.

Monday Roundup: Long Week Begins and Ends With Disappointment

With eight games at home on the schedule against division foes, last week had a chance of being a springboard for the Braves into a big June. Instead, it ended up a losing effort that included a disheartening doubleheader loss.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

June 5: 11-4 LOSS vs. Phillies
This one got away from Bartolo Colon early. He was charged with eight runs in his 3.2 innings. Not that it mattered, but Sam Freeman and Eric O'Flaherty each gave up homers as well. Johan Camargo had a big day at the plate with a double and a triple. Ender Inciarte and Brandon Phillips also had two hits a piece with Inciarte reaching ten doubles on the season. He's currently on pace for 26 doubles this season. His career high is 27 set in 2015. He's already tied his career-high in homers, also set in 2015.

June 6: 3-1 LOSS vs. Phillies
Atlanta got to Aaron Nola early with a double by Phillips and a RBI single by Nick Markakis in the first, but the offense managed just five hits the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Phillies were able to scratch three runs across against Jaime Garcia to pull out the win. Phillips led Braves hitters with two hits. Garcia went 7.2 innings in the loss and struck out four. Jason Motte stranded a runner while striking out the only hitter he faced. Jason Hursh, who was just called up to replace the DL'd Colon, tossed a one-hit ninth with a K. It was the fourth time he had been called up from the minors, but just the third time he had been used. He would be demoted and recalled again later in the week.

June 7: 14-1 WIN vs. Phillies
A 4-0 game entering the bottom of the seventh turned into a blow-out as the Braves set a new season-high in runs scored. Markakis doubled in Phillips for the game's first run in the fourth. An inning later, after Tyler Flowers reached on an error and Rio Ruiz worked a walk, Dansby Swanson unloaded for his sixth homer of the year. He's now tied for third on the team in homeruns. Markakis drove in five runs with three hits - all doubles. In addition to his big fly, Swanson singled twice to finish with three hits. Danny Santana had a pinch-hit two-run double and Matt Adams finished with three ribbies and a homer. Mike Foltynewicz didn't need much help, either. He finished with seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits, two walks, and picking up four K's. Jose Ramirez and Luke Jackson finished from there with Jackson yielding a run on three hits.

June 8: 3-1 WIN vs. Phillies
R.A. Dickey was masterful over seven innings, allowing just three hits and one run. More impressively, he walked nobody and struck out eight. Meanwhile, the Braves scored twice in the first to claim a lead they would not surrender. Phillips, Matt Kemp, Adams, and Flowers all had two-hit games with all but Adams adding a double. Flowers was catching Dickey for the first time this season and while he was charged with a passed ball, the results from Dickey seemed to indicate Flowers would get another chance to catch the knuckler. Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol teamed up to pitch the eighth before Jim Johnson closed the door in the ninth.

June 9: 3-2 WIN vs. Mets
Rio Ruiz followed up a Swanson hustle double with a pinch-hit single to score the shortstop and lead to a walk-off victory. With the score tied and one out in the ninth, Swanson sent a single up the middle that Curtis Granderson took his sweet time fielding. Swanson pushed the issue and beat the throw to second to set up Ruiz, who took the only pitch Josh Edgin threw to left field to score Swanson. Granderson had homered in the third to put the Mets up, but Swanson (a common theme here) doubled in two runs to briefly put Atlanta on top. Jason Motte couldn't hold it from there, allowing a homer. Julio Teheran was improved as he continues to try to turn his season around. He gave up four hits, walked three, and struck out three over six innings before giving the bullpen the game with a 2-1 lead. Other than Motte, the pen didn't allow a hit even though Braves manager Brian Snitker used five relievers to record nine outs.

June 10: Game 1...6-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Can't blame the rookie as Sean Newcomb was superb. He went 6.1 innings, allowed four hits, walked two (one intentionally), and struck out seven. His biggest mistake came in the second when he tried to do a bit too much and committed an error that would help set the stage for the Mets to pull ahead on a sacrifice fly. It was still 1-0 in the eighth when Luke Jackson allowed another sacrifice fly. He then loaded the bases in the ninth before surrendering the game-ender - a Grand Slam. The Braves offense was non-existent as they managed a half-dozen hits, including two extra-base knocks by Brandon Phillips. It was Phillips' eighth-inning homer that kept the Braves from being shutout.

Game 2...8-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Once again, the Braves offense didn't show up and picked up just five hits, including a RBI single by Johan Camargo, who had two hits. Swanson had the only extra-base hit, a double that preceded Camargo's seventh-inning single. Matt Wisler was good - until he wasn't. After four very impressive innings, he gave up a three-run homer in the fifth and another run in the sixth. Eric O'Flaherty surrendered four more runs to turn the game into a laugher.

June 11: 2-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Jaime Garcia went seven innings, allowed just two runs, and struck out nine - and it wasn't enough. Completing a weekend where they were missing in action, the Braves offense picked up six or fewer hits for the third consecutive game. They had a shot to plate what would have been the tying run in the fifth inning when they loaded the bases on two singles and a walk, but Matt Adams hit an inning-ending double play. He was originally called safe at first before a replay challenge overturned the call on the field.

Trending Up:
Dansby Swanson (9-for-24, 3 2B, HR, 2 BB, 2 K)
Johan Camargo (4-for-13, 2B, 3B)
Ender Inciarte (8-for-27, 2B, 5 BB, 2 K)
Mike Foltynewicz (7 ING, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K)
Ian Krol (3 G, 1.2 ING, 2 K)
Sean Newcomb (6.1 ING, 4 H, R, 2 BB,  K)
R.A. Dickey (7 ING, 3 H, R, ER, 8 K)
Jaime Garcia (14.2 ING, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 13 K)

Trending South:
Kurt Suzuki (0-for-12, K)
Matt Adams (6-for-29, HR, 4 BB, 7 K)
Bartolo Colon (3.2 ING, 8 R, 2 BB, 4 K)
Eric O'Flaherty (3 G, 3.2 ING, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, BB, 4 K)

This Week: 3-5
Season: 27-35, tied for 3rd in the NL East, 11 GB (lost a spot and a .5 game)

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves leave Atlanta for a quick trip to D.C. to face the division-leading Nationals. Monday and Tuesday are night games while Wednesday will be a 4:05 EDT start. After an off day, Atlanta returns home to welcome the Marlins into town. After a night game on Friday, Saturday's effort will be a 4:10 EDT start and will be Superhero Night at the ballpark. Sunday's game is another Alumni Sunday with a pair of former second basemen as Marcus Giles and Mark Lemke will be on hand. Former pinch-hitting extraordinaire Dwight Smith will also be at the game along with Jay Howell, who spent one season with the Braves back in 1993.

Three Last Things

1) Sean Newcomb Deserves to Stay for Now
I've been on the Sean Newcomb Bandwagon since about midseason last year. I was like many fans and it took me some time to warm up to the deal that sent fan favorite Andrelton Simmons packing. But once I saw Newcomb start to make some mechanical adjustments last season, I grew more and more excited about his potential. I ranked him second on my preseason Top 50 and went into this season ready to watch him force his way into the majors. I was a little shocked to see it happen so quickly.

Newcomb's going to have to throw his secondary pitches more frequently and for strikes - 70 of his 96 pitches Saturday were four-seam fastballs - but what we saw against the Mets was a kid unaffected by the major league bright lights. He threw his pitches with confidence and even control, hitting the strikezone on 53% of his pitches - over 5% over the major league average this year. His fastball ranged between 91.1 mph and 96.9 mph and he was nearly hitting 96 mph in the sixth inning. His curve was off-the-charts ridiculous and froze hitters left-and-right. The ones that did swing at it often missed.

Like I said, he's going to have to throw his slider and change more often in future outings, but as far as debuts go, Newcomb excelled. He gave us a glimpse into the pitcher he can be. What's he got in his left arm for an encore?

2) Markakis: A Platoon Option?
Before coming to the Atlanta Braves, Nick Markakis definitely hit righties with more force than he hit lefties. While his batting average showed little platoon advantage, he walked nearly 3% more and sported an ISO that was 51 points higher. That gave us a difference in wOBA of .355 vs. .329. But that's not so bad. A general rule of thumb tells us that .329 is a bit between average and above-average.

But...and I bet you can guess where this is going...things have been a bit different since coming to Atlanta. Now, to be fair, his marks are down across the board compared to his Orioles days. To be equally as fair, his Orioles days includes a time when wOBA was much higher around the league so it's difficult to say that his decline with Atlanta has been significant. All of that out of the way, Markakis's wOBA as a Brave against righthanders is .340. That's an above-average mark and nothing to sneeze at. But his mark against lefthanders? .279. That's straight up awful and a detriment to the team.

I can't blame the Braves for playing him so frequently against lefthanders. They've rarely had better options. But it's time to accept that Markakis is now just a platoon hitter and if he's a Brave in 2018, he'll need a platoon partner - perhaps Dustin Peterson or the guy I'm going to talk about next.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

3) Acuna and Andruw
Ronald Acuna has done some pretty ridiculous things that 19-year-olds simply do not do. He played just 40 games at Low-A ball last year, but still received an extended stay with the major league club this spring and arrived in Florida for High-A ball with massive expectations. Those inflated expectations were already heightened after an absurd run in Australia during winter ball and a lot of eyes were on him as he began 2017 as one of the youngest players in High-A.

He didn't stay there long. Twenty-eight games. Sixty-eight total games at both levels of A-ball. On May 9, he was promoted to Mississippi. Less than a month later, he had already been named Southern League Player of the Month as he blitzed the league. Naturally, it's difficult NOT to compare him to another teenage outfielder who, back in 1996, jumped from High-A all the way to the majors with stops in Double-A and Triple-A along the way. Now, Acuna hasn't flashed the other-worldly power Andruw Jones did back then, but he's following a similar trajectory. Whether that gets him to the majors in 2017 remains to be seen.

But I want to concentrate on 2018 and what happened with Andruw Jones in 1997. We all remember how Andruw made a name for himself in the '96 World Series, but do you remember how the Braves treated the 20-year-old the following season? He played in all but nine ballgames, yet started just 91 games. He played a few innings in left, but cycled mostly between right field and center field. Kenny Lofton's lengthy DL stint helped open up at-bats for Andruw and Michael Tucker's need for a right-handed caddy to neutralized lefties also helped.

Why not do the same thing with Ronald Acuna? The Braves would enter 2018 with a returning outfield, though Nick Markakis has just one year left on his contract and Matt Kemp's deal runs through 2019. Both players have been pretty durable over the last several years, but each will be a year older in 2018. But the bigger advantage to bringing Acuna in for a year as the fourth outfielder is that he can fill a number of roles. As I stated in the second "Last Thing," Markakis has not shown the ability as a Brave to consistently hit left-handed pitching. Acuna could help there. He's also a capable defender in center field, something the Braves lack behind Ender Inciarte. Further, his defense could come in handy in late innings as a defensive replacement for Kemp without sacrificing too much offense. Finally, Acuna gives the Braves a solid replacement at any outfield spot during games in AL ballparks.

The belief is that Acuna won't be in the majors in 2018 if he's not starting and that won't happen without a trade. That's probably accurate, but giving Andruw a year as the fourth outfielder didn't hurt his development. Why not let Acuna follow the same course?