Reaction: John Coppolella Resigns in Disgrace

For three years, John Coppolella was treated as a wunderkind. The Notre Dame graduate who had cut his teeth in the Yankees organization before coming south, Coppolella represented a new era for the Atlanta Braves. He seemed ultra-capable in fleecing other teams of prospects and draft choices while also bringing together a talented group of scouts and assistants to comb the globe for new talent. Under his leadership, the Braves' scouting department flourished and with his background in statistical analysis, he seemed like the perfect blend of the traditional mindset and more modern approach. Coppolella gave Braves fans hope. Coppolella convinced fans to trust the process.

Around one in the afternoon on Monday morning, that trust was irrevocably broken as Coppolella resigned from his position in disgrace. While details are currently sketchy, we do know that under Coppolella, the Braves ran afoul of "rules regarding the international player market." Others have suggested domestic spending in the draft may also be involved. In addition, as Jeff Passan tweeted, "Coppolella's treatment of Braves employees" was also put under the microscope. Maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised.

It was a little more than a month ago that Ken Rosenthal penned a piece for The Atlantic about the level of discord in the Braves' front office. At the time, it seemed limited to problems between Coppolella and Hart on one side and the old guard of John Schuerholz and his guys on the other. However, the issues in the front office went beyond that as we found out today. With the general manager now out of the way, the narrative changed from the local stories of how capable Coppolella was to the tweets many national writers were not writing before the news broke. With Coppolella in charge, people like Rosenthal and Passan couldn't unleash their observations on the character of Coppolella because they needed him for quotes and news. With him gone, the tweets began to come out in droves of how poorly thought-of by the industry Coppolella was and how no one was sad to see him go.

Some of that could be sour grapes. After all, Coppolella did fleece many general managers. However, it seems to go deeper than that and it appears like Coppolella - for all of his good qualities - rubbed many people the wrong way. This is not unlike the man he basically replaced in Frank Wren and it's amazing that their dismissals carry much of the same narrative, though Wren's firing was far more simplistic and seems much more contained. Wren was hated by many people close to the Braves. Coppolella was hated by seemingly the industry he worked in. As Passan pointed out, the news about Coppolella brought "a lot of schadenfreude right now."

There were will be much more detailed reporting to come in regards to what the Braves did under Coppolella and retrospectives of his time with the Braves, but the striking thing to me is that a guy who was regarded as such a capable general manager might never work in a baseball front office again. Again, you can compare this to Wren. He found work. He may have burned every bridge possible in Atlanta, but he was still respected outside of the south. Coppolella seems outright loathed.

The word many used to describe Coppolella was "relentless." That aided him - and the Braves - in an organizational reset that saw Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel traded within months of Wren's removal. That was followed up by moving Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller, bold moves to bring in a higher-class of talent than the Braves had been able to acquire in the trades the previous winter. However, his relentless "make this happen" approach also led to deals for Hector Olivera and wasting Kimbrel's value just to get rid of Melvin Upton Jr. Coppolella was creative, that much is true. But he wasn't perfect - even when the Atlanta-area media (or bloggers like myself) made it sound like he was.

Moving forward, the Braves have what could be a highly-coveted position available should other general managers not shy away due to the questions regarding whatever punishments should await the Braves. The best case scenario is that the Braves pay fines and possibly have restrictions put on them in the international and/or domestic markets. The worst case? The Braves get all of those restrictions and fines plus lose prospects - maybe even Kevin Maitan, according to Passan's latest article. While details remain fuzzy, the fact Coppolella resigned leads me to brace for the worst. Similar to a college program giving player under-the-table benefits, the Braves may have done the same with Maitan which could force Major League Baseball to bring the hammer down. Passan also sheds light on some possible negotiating issues the Braves had with Drew Waters after selecting the outfielder this offseason. According to the report, some benefits were offered to Waters to make up in the difference between the signing bonus he received and the slot value he could have received. Both prospects rank among the top handful of position prospects currently in the Braves' system and there's a possibility these players are the tip of the iceberg.

The chance of dealing with sanctions from this mess awaits the next general manager, whoever that might be. Some have suggested Dayton Moore is a natural fit and he kind of always has been. Had he not left before Schuerholz's retirement, it likely would have been Moore and not Wren who got the keys to the castle. Perhaps Coppolella never rises to the top in the Braves' organization and perhaps we never live the darkest timeline. The good news is that even if the worst case scenario awaits the Braves, the system will continue to be stocked with talent - even if they lose some of their best ones.

Braves fans - and I consider myself one - found it easy to like Coppolella especially if you could trust the process. He marketed himself well, something that may have made it even easier for rival general managers to hate him. Whether it was candid interviews or through lengthy Q&A's with Braves fans, referred to as #AskCoppy, the former Braves general manager was far less reserved than most general managers who often only spoke during press conferences in a rehearsed manner. Zealous, but also patient, Coppolella built a collection of young talented envied throughout the game.

It was easy, with Coppy reassuring us, to trust the process. It'd work out.

It's almost ironic. This was finally the first year that we began to see the fruits of Coppolella's labor play out. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson up the middle. Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo at third. Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and Max Fried all starting games for the team in September. A.J. Minter coming out of the pen. And the best was yet to come as Ronald Acuna, Mike Soroka, and Kolby Allard all appear primed to appear in the majors in 2018. The process is getting closer and closer to bringing success to a city starving for their baseball team to once again be among the game's elite.

And it still should be that way. The Braves are still on the rise. The Nationals will still have to worry about the Braves in the coming years. None of that has changed. In their beautiful new ballpark, the Atlanta Braves will be contenders sooner rather than later.

It just won't be with the guy who helped make it happen anymore.

Will Matt Adams be a Brave in 2018?

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When Freddie Freeman went down, the Braves started Jace Peterson at first and signed James Loney. And for a minute, we thought that was the best the Braves could do. John Coppolella changed that by acquiring Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. While expectations weren't great for Adams, he was clearly an upgrade over in-house options - including Loney who asked for a release. Adams, who had been stuck on the Cardinals bench after they moved Matt Carpenter to first base, would take off after arriving in Atlanta. Over 39 games while Freeman was out, he blitzed the league to the tune of .285/.333/.589 with 12 HR. So good was his performance that when Freeman was ready to return, the Braves took him up on his suggestion and moved their franchise cornerstone to third base just to keep Adams in the lineup.

That would last most of July and while Adams continued to produce, he definitely cooled down. As the calendar changed over to August, the Braves moved Freeman back to first base, leaving Adams to play left field in Matt Kemp's absence or pinch-hit. He's hit just .227 since but has bashed four homers - including two pinch-hit moonshots.

As the season rolls to an end, the Braves have a choice to make with Adams. Let's look at the options:

Trade him: Easier Said Than Done

In 2017, Adams was paid $2.8 million for his services and will be arbitration-eligible for just one more season. He's a career .270/.315/.470 hitter with 75 home runs. He falls under the spectrum of productive, but not so productive that other teams are willing to spend much in terms of assets to acquire him. The Braves traded a corner infielder who has hit just 13 home runs in 201 games and might only profile as a first baseman because his defense at third base is so suspect. First basemen without power don't tend to keep a job for very long (i.e. James Loney).

Adams does have power - a good deal of it - and can hit the ball hard. Adams currently rests just outside the Top 50 in Barrels per plate appearance, which rates the quality of contact. When he puts the bat on the ball, it has a good chance of finding a hole. Does he have .283 ISO-type power, like he has shown this year? It's probably not something he can sustain, but he qualifies as a true power hitter with a career .199 ISO. That's a big boost to his value.

However, several things are working against the Braves as they consider dealing Adams.

• He's platoon-dependent. Over his career, Adams has a .256 wOBA against lefties. It's just as miserable this season at .244. Unfortunately, every team has access to Fangraphs so they also have this information. Acquiring Adams only works if you can match him up with a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties in the Matt Diaz mold. 
• He's position-dependent. Adams is a fine first baseman. He's not gifted at the position by any means, but since 2014, Adams actually profiles better than Freeman as a first baseman (4.8 UZR/150, 17 rPM, 15 DRS). Nobody is paying anyone for first baseman defense, though. Adams has played just 129.1 innings in left field and we simply can't gauge much of anything of his numbers, but the eye test suggests that Adams is probably going to be a negative defensively. It's too much of a stretch to believe he can play anywhere else. He's a first baseman who might play left field for you in a pinch. That limits his value to NL clubs who know they are going to have to platoon him. The AL teams that could have interest do have the DH, which opens up more possibilities.
• He's under team control for just 2018. The Braves paid next-to-nothing to acquire Adams and that was with a year-and-a-half of team control. The team acquiring Adams will have even less.

None of these conditions will erase any chance the Braves have of trading Adams, but they certainly limit the opportunities. One thing could work in their favor, though. Of the 21 full-time qualified first basemen this season, five are free agents. Two others, Lucas Duda and Mike Napoli, didn't qualify but have been regulars in the lineup and could also be free agents this offseason (Napoli has an option). Further, a DH like Carlos Beltran will also hit the open market. In addition, the Angels are a team that might entertain the idea of improving their first base production after a combined 0.7 fWAR from C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, and Jefry Marte. Suffice it to say, the market is theoretically available for Adams.

That said, a number of open jobs at first base/DH doesn't mean the same thing as open jobs in center field or at shortstop, positions where the market is depressed by so few capable players at the position. A number of the free agents this offseason with history at first base were also free agents last year. This is because most teams look at first base in this regard - it's great if you have a Freeman, but if you don't, you can find something that will work. You don't even need to be in a rush. The Rays signed Logan Morrison a week before spring training for nearly $2 million less than they paid him the previous year. It worked out pretty well for them and they weren't alone. The first base market rarely invites huge paydays because teams can just wait it out and go bargain shopping.

With Adams likely to earn $4M to $5M in arbitration, would any team really spend assets to acquire a guy that resembles several free agents that are already available and won't require a prospect? For that matter, they could be even cheaper than Adams. This is a problem the Braves will face in regards to dealing Adams this winter.

Non-Tender Him: But Why?

The Braves could see Adams as a luxury they can do without and simply non-tender him to open a 40-man roster spot. Such a decision would be a mistake in my view.

At $5M or so, Adams is an expensive bench piece, but the Braves will probably be able to deal with that. If they don't sign a third baseman - and Ronald Acuna takes over in right field as many expect - the Braves will open the season with half of their position starters earning the major league minimum. It would be a fair assumption that two of their rotation members will also make the minimum. Paying $5M for a bench player becomes much more bearable when you aren't spending heavily at other positions.

Beyond that, Adams does have value - value that would be wasted as a non-tendered free agent. I mentioned many of the negatives earlier because that hurts his trade value, but his offensive value is still quite apparent as he has a .335 wOBA since 2013. That ranks 74th among 238 players and it's better than Adam Jones, Beltran, Todd Frazier, and Evan Gattis. And since we know that he's a platoon player, we can reasonably assume that his wOBA would only look better if you limited it to facing right-hand pitching. And why assume when we can just look it up? Since 2013, Adams' .355 wOBA against right-hand pitching ranks 59th of 482 players (min. 370 PA against RHP).

If the Braves were in a financial crunch, I'd understand non-tendering Adams if a trade market never materialized - which is a real possibility. But I don't believe Atlanta will have to worry about that so why not keep Adams? Further, perhaps a trade market would come together as players go down or don't perform after spring camp opens up. Regardless, just cutting Adams is short-sighted and I think more of John Coppolella than that.

Keep Him: Cause Why The Hell Not?

If the Braves can't trade Adams and non-tendering him is a dumb move, that leaves the third option - keep him. And frankly, it might be the best option available even if Atlanta gets much interest in Adams this offseason.

The Braves are unlikely to trade Matt Kemp this winter. It'd be great if they can, but the sheer amount of financial responsibility the Braves would have to shoulder just to unload Kemp might be too much for the Braves to accept. Trading Nick Markakis to open up a spot for Acuna seems like the easier and more likely play. That leaves Atlanta to hope Kemp loses all the weight, keeps it off, and performs once again. Pretty much the same thing they hoped for last winter.

Whatever the case, the Braves seem stuck here. Here's the thing, though. If you are willing to play Kemp in left field with all of his atrocious defense, why wouldn't you also be willing to play Adams out there? Both players need a defensive caddy (Hi, Lane Adams!) and with Kemp seemingly always dealing with hamstring and knee issues, having Matt Adams' bat around could be useful for the Braves. Yeah, the defense sucks, but honestly, Adams could be better than Kemp defensively. Here's a fun stat for all of you Josh Browns of the world. Sprint speed is measured by feet per second. 447 players qualify currently and ranking 398th is Kemp with a sprint speed of 25.6 ft/sec. Adams is slightly quicker at 26.1 ft/sec. While speed isn't everything (Ender Inciarte ranks 173rd overall), there's at least an argument that Adams is a comparable - maybe even better - left fielder than Kemp. Probably not better, but Kemp is so bad that Adams can't be any worse. Presumably, with even more time in left field, Adams stands a shot at improving. Not a good one, but we know Kemp isn't going to get any better.

Pinch-Hit Homers by the Braves

Remember when I said that keeping Adams maybe even better than trading him? Think about what the Braves might get for trading Adams. Well, we don't really know that, but we can make the reasonable assumption that it won't be greater than what the Braves gave up to originally acquire him. That would mean Atlanta would likely receive a borderline Top 75 prospect in this organization. Probably something between what they received for Jaime Garcia (Huascar Ynoa) and Brandon Phillips (Tony Sanchez). Now, that player could be a fun project, but it's probably going to be a guy who won't ultimately play for the Braves or turn into a good tradeable asset. And by the way...the Braves' lower minor league teams are already packed with project players.

Keeping Adams gives the Braves a bat off the bench - something they lacked when the 2017 season opened - who provides depth at 1B and LF. That depth could be important when you consider that Freeman has missed about 80 games to injury over the last three years (including a healthy 2016). Conversely, Kemp bends over and misses two weeks. That's being mean, but having Adams for depth could be useful to help the Braves should either player go down. Further, Adams could fetch a better prospect from a desperate team later. That last part is wishful thinking, but it's not impossible.

In the end, short of being surprised on the trade market this offseason, the best bet is to keep Adams moving forward into the 2018 season. Do you agree? Let me know in the comment section.

Baseball's Weirdest Rule 5 Situation

What better way to explain service time than with the hottest prospect to come through the Braves system since Jason Heyward? For that matter, what better way to explain arbitration than with the strangest case that we've seen over the last number of years?

In professional baseball, you earn two different kinds of "time." The one that everyone gets from a rookie-league ballplayer to R.A. Dickey relates to how long you have been a professional. This is especially important when it comes to things like the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency. For instance, after seven seasons in the minors, you can become a minor league free agent. Oddly, we call them "six-year minor league free agents" despite needing seven years. Baseball is strange.

The other kind of time a player earns - which is far more important to this article - is service time. This refers to each day spent in the major leagues. Under the new CBA, there are 187 days to fit in a 162-game schedule. However, you are still credited with a day of service time during those off days. In fact, a full season is referred to as 172 days in the major leagues - which did not change in the CBA despite the added days to the MLB calendar year. Think of this way - as long as a player didn't use an option that season (i.e. 20 days in the minors), he likely earned a year of service time if he was with the team in April.

You receive service time while on the active roster, the disabled list, the restricted (or suspended) list, and...well...any list. As long as you haven't been optioned to the minors, your service time is climbing. Hence why some teams have tried to play the system against itself. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs waited exactly 13 days to call up Kris Bryant. Under the previous CBA, there were 184 days in a calendar season. As Bryant was not on the 40-man roster to begin the season, by pushing his debut off nearly two weeks, the 2015 Rookie of the Year received 171 days of service time in 2015. That's a day short of a full season. Chicago said all the right things about Bryant needing to work on some parts of his game, but the decision was made with the 2021 season in mind. Had the Cubs opened the season with Bryant on the major league roster, he would have become a free agent after 2020 as players with six years of service time in the majors at the end of any given season can become free agents should they not be signed beyond that season. Believing it was more beneficial to them to keep him in the minors, they did just that.

Should the Braves follow suit with Ronald Acuna? There is a lot of talk about bringing him up in September and why not? Over three stops from High-A ball to Triple-A, Acuna has hit .320/.374/.539 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 20 homers, and 37 steals. His numbers have improved at each stop and despite being about eight years younger than the International League, Acuna has an OPS of 1.021 with Gwinnett over 34 games. He's not only the top prospect in the Braves' system but has a solid claim to the best prospect in baseball and he's just 19 years-old.

Bringing him up now would sacrifice a potential extra year of team control. There are other concerns, but provided Acuna stays in the majors, he would reach free agency after 2023. If the Braves waited until sometime in late April of next season to bring Acuna up, they would follow the Bryant route and gain an extra year of team control while merely sacrificing a few weeks of the 2018 season with their top prospect in Triple-A. The Braves have historically not concerned themselves with that, though. I mentioned Heyward and he opened his rookie season in the starting lineup on opening day. By that September, Freddie Freeman joined the team for a cup of coffee. Last August, Dansby Swanson was surprisingly brought to the majors, which started his clock early. In fact, the last time I remember the Braves really concerning themselves with service time came in 2009.

Tommy Hanson was absolutely dominant with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi in 2008 as a 21-year-old. He finished the season by crushing the Arizona Fall League with a 0.63 ERA over 28.2 innings and 49 strikeouts. Over 14.2 innings the following spring, Hanson had a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. But it was Jo-Jo Reyes who was named the fifth starter. Predictably, he failed and in mid-May, the Braves made a change. Hanson had a 1.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 47.2 ING over his first eight starts, but the Braves passed on bringing him up from Gwinnett. They instead called on Kris Medlen, who had been nearly as excellent but wasn't considered a top prospect. Medlen would get three starts until June 7, when the Braves finally brought up Hanson.

All of this was done for one reason - arbitration. Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson as the fifth starter, not only would he have gotten to free agency a season quicker, he would have gotten paid a lot quicker as well. Players become arbitration-eligible after three seasons on a MLB roster. The Braves passed and continued to pass even after gaining the extra year of team control. That was done to get him past the expected date for Super 2 arbitration-eligible players. Super 2 refers to players with two years of service time plus a lot more. Basically, you group all of the players with more than two years of service time, but less than three years in a given season. You take the top 22% of that list and it gives you a threshold. Anyone above that threshold reaches arbitration early. That threshold differs, but it typically lands somewhere in the 2 years and 120-to-150 days area. Remember Bryant from earlier? Despite the fact that the Cubs bought an extra year before free agency, he will still reach salary arbitration this year. And the three years after it. Hence why Super 2 guys can get really expensive. Since arbitration-eligible players rarely fail to receive a nice bump in pay, it gets pretty costly the third time around even for just good players. Add a fourth year and players often are getting plenty of bank. One such player for the Braves this offseason will be Mike Foltynewicz, who will likely have 2 years and 163 days of service time. While the Super 2 cutoff hasn't been decided for 2017, it's unlikely to be higher than 163 days.

The entire reason I bring up service time and arbitration today is related to Dan Winkler. Back in December of 2014, the Braves selected Winkler in the Rule 5 draft. They knew he would miss of the next season after having Tommy John surgery. When a Rule 5 player is injured and misses time the next season, they still have to log at least 90 days on the active roster to fulfill their Rule 5 eligibility. If they fail to reach 90 days in their first season as a Rule 5 guy, they must finish off the remaining time the next season before being eligible to be optioned to the minors. In Winkler's case, as we know, it gets complicated.

Winkler was activated off the DL in 2015 on September 10. Between that day and the end of the season, he logged 24 days on the active roster. The following season, he was on the active roster for eight days before fracturing his elbow. In two seasons, he had 32 days of service time - or nearly two months short of what he would need to satisfy the Rule 5 requirement of 90 days.

The right-hander is currently on his second rehab assignment this season, which has required approval because pitchers only receive 30 days on rehab assignments. Winkler's most recent rehab assignment began 12 days ago. If he has been granted a second rehab assignment of 30 days, the Braves would be able to keep him in the minors until September 1 without having to make a move with the current roster. The season runs through October 1, which would get Winkler to 31 days of active roster time for this season and 55 overall. That leaves an additional 35 days of active roster time he would need to reach in 2018 to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements.

But...he'll also be arbitration-eligible. Yep, even though Winkler has thrown four innings in the majors, he'd be eligible for arbitration even if he went back on the DL for the rest of the year. Earlier, I said players get credit for service time while on the DL. Even though Winkler has pitched 13 times this season in the minors, it's all came under rehab assignments, which means he's still on the major league DL. That would mean Winkler would reach 172 days of service time this season on or about September 15, which would give him three years of service time in the major leagues.

But why stop this extra-strength convoluted exercise now? Let's go over the Braves' options.

I don't remember a case even close to this so this is my best-educated guess.

The Braves could non-tender Winkler, but as far as I know it, non-tender players become official in early December. That might be longer than the Braves would like to go with Winkler taking up space on their roster if they already plan on getting rid of him.

Atlanta could outright Winkler to the minors, but there are a few hang-ups there as well. One, to get him off the 40-man roster, they would need to waive him, offer him to the rest of the league, and, provided he passed through waivers, offer him back to the Rockies. If the other 29 teams passed, the Braves could attempt to outright him to the minors, but as an arbitration-eligible player, Winkler would have the right to elect free agency. As a free agent, the Braves could still try to sign him as a minor league free agent if they so wanted. For that matter, they could simplify the process and release Winkler and then sign him. If he accepted an assignment to the minors after being outrighted or signed as a minor league free agent and either came before the Rule 5 draft, he'd actually be eligible in the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

The Braves could also elect to offer arbitration. After all, how much could Winkler ask for and what could his agent argue? That he's been a good patient? For his part, Winkler has looked much sharper since beginning another rehab stint with Gwinnett and was very impressive to open last season. As he is unlikely to receive significantly more than the major league minimum through arbitration, he still could be a good bet to receive an arbitration tender.

Fortunately, few cases are crazier than Winkler and most are much simpler. Joining Winkler and Foltynewicz among this year's arbitration-eligible players for the first time will be Sam Freeman, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson. Another player, Jose Ramirez, seems like a good bet to also reach Super 2 status. Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, Arodys Vizcaino, and Matt Adams will also be arbitration-eligible. Much of this group seems likely to receive a non-tender - including Winkler. Should that happen, the next team won't even have to worry about Rule 5 eligibility with Winkler. That should keep the complications down to a minimal.

Yet Another Ronald Acuna/Andruw Jones Piece - But This One is Different!

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

I am on the record with this. I love Ronald Acuna. He makes my heart flutter. When he hits a home run, to quote Bowling for Soup, "all the wind blows and the angels sing." He's the greatest thing since sliced bread. In fact, he's like pretzel bread, which as we all know, improves bread to another level. Ronald Acuna is hope and hope is good.

But the Braves have, as our own Stephen Tolbert said a few weeks back, a corner outfield problem. Worse, it is a problem that could - I repeat, could - continue into 2018. Where would Acuna fit in if the Braves are incapable of finding a trading partner willing to take on Matt Kemp's salary and/or Nick Markakis's...Markaisian averageness? Should the Braves simply take their losses and release Kemp or Markakis (likely the latter) just to open up a spot for Acuna? Should he stay in the minors until the Braves find a taker for one of their older corner outfielders - despite unreal numbers this season?

Here's the thing, Braves fans. The Braves don't have to have an either/or. They can have a team next year that includes Kemp, Markakis, and Acuna. Just so you don't freak out, Ender Inciarte also fits into this arrangement. And what's even better is that the Braves have done it before

You've probably seen a lot - and I mean A LOT - of comparisons between Andruw Jones and Acuna. Both climbed from A-ball to Triple-A in their Age-19 seasons. Both were dynamic outfielders and elite prospects in baseball. Whether these comparisons are fair or not, they are inevitable. There are just too many similar factors here. And why stop now? Why not follow what the Braves did in 1997 with the then 20-year-old Andruw Jones? Why not use Acuna as the fourth outfielder for a year?

I know what you're thinking - the Braves won't do that because Acuna is too valuable to be wasted in a fourth outfielder role. It's also difficult to see a possibility where Acuna isn't better than either Kemp nor Markakis in 2018. And for the record, I don't mean Acuna should be the fourth outfielder in a way Lane Adams is a fourth outfielder. I mean only to use Acuna like Andruw Jones was used in 1997.

Let's flashback to that year for a second. While every Braves fan remembers 1996 and Andruw homering twice in the Bronx during the World Series, the Braves didn't hand the young man a spot in the starting lineup to begin 1997. It's why Michael Tucker had an opportunity to hit the first home run in Turner Field history. The Braves opened the season with a platoon between Tucker and Andruw. When he wasn't in the starting lineup, Andruw would play often in a pinch-hitting/defensive replacement role. Of the first 25 games, he played in 24. He remained in that timeshare until mid-June, when Kenny Lofton went down with an injury. It allowed Andruw the shot to play nightly. When Lofton returned, Andruw was relegated back into his backup role, filling in against left-hand pitching, playing defense in right and left, and occasionally spelling Lofton in center field. He started 96 games - fewer than Tucker, Lofton, and Ryan Klesko - but more than one might expect for a fourth outfielder. He also played an additional 51 games in the field for a total of 147 games of experience in the outfield. Add that with six more games in a pinch-hitting capacity and Andruw Jones actually finished second on the 1997 Braves in games played.

Now, does this situation compare to a potential 2018 Braves' squad? You better believe it. Consider these two scenarios.

Scenario #1 - The Braves Can't Find a Taker for Kemp

This possibility is a likelihood at this point. Many who questioned the Hector Olivera trade last summer pointed out that Kemp's value was only going down. This season, he has been a replacement level player due to atrocious defense and bad baserunning metrics. His offense isn't bad (though a rising groundball rate is troubling), but the belief that he was a changed man after coming over from the Padres is a bit overblown. He's essentially the same player as he was in 2015, his first season in San Diego.

Kemp has been durable to an extent, but many would argue that has been to the club's detriment. Kemp plays hurt - largely because his knees are shot and though he's still just 32, it seems like he's much older. Still, he averaged 153 games in the three years before this so he knows how to stay in the lineup. Two trips to the DL this season, though, and nagging injuries throughout the season point to the possibility that his 150-game seasons might be a thing of the past. That's actually not the worst thing, by the way. Players with Kemp's issues need regular rest to make them better able to deal with a long season.

Since the Braves are unlikely to find a team with much interest in sharing the burden of the nearly $40 million the Braves are on the hook for over the next two seasons, Kemp seems likely to return in 2018. Wouldn't it be nice to have both a capable defender able to hide Kemp in late games and a capable hitter able to contribute offensively? Do you really feel it's out of the realm of possibility that Atlanta will need a contingency plan should Kemp miss a month or more of the 2018 season? Acuna provides a ready replacement.

There's also the possibility of keeping Matt Adams and giving him at-bats to keep Kemp fresh. I'm not sure that it makes a lot of sense to keep two guys who still couldn't cover left field even if MLB allowed the Braves to play both at the same time, but I understand the whole "if Kemp is bad at defense, does it matter that Adams also is?" Nevertheless, the team could still use a defensive replacement for either.

Scenario #2 - Markakis Attracts a Lukewarm Market

Nick Markakis (2015-Present)
vs.	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
RHP	.290	.378	.412	.341	112
LHP	.256	.308	.324	.280	71

Since coming to Atlanta, Nick Markakis has wRC+ of 71 and a .280 wOBA against left-hand pitching. That's abysmal. Hiding that with Acuna would definitely be useful in a world where Markakis might not attract a lot of attention on the open market should the Braves attempt to deal him. Further, Markakis's defense, while not as severely detrimental to the team as Kemp's, remains an issue for Atlanta.

The Braves could - and probably would - be open to paying down some of Markakis's $10.5M remaining salary, but for what? A no-name prospect? Say what you will about Markakis and I have, but the guy is consistent, durable, and consistent. Yes, I know I said that twice, but compliments work best in threes and I couldn't think of another one. With the very real possibility of Kemp going down for significant time in 2018, do the Braves really want to lose Markakis, who again is durable (and consistent)?

Now, you might say that these two scenarios don't exist in a vacuum and you would be right. The Braves could trade Markakis, for example, and sign a good enough outfielder or platoon Dustin Peterson and Lane Adams to deal with any possible injury to Kemp. For that matter, Kemp could stay relatively healthy. Furthermore, Matt Adams is the mix as well (though his numbers have fallen considerably since his big start with the Braves). You might even say, "why put off the inevitable? Ronald Acuna is the future and the future is ready to begin."

It's a tough argument to counter. Playing Ronald Acuna every day is certainly more exciting than watching either the consistently durable Markakis or the kneeless Kemp meander around the outfield. But is it best for the player? I'll use two examples here. First, let's look back at Andruw Jones. He spent a year playing nearly every game, but only starting slightly more than half. Did it stunt his growth? Not even a little. He improved across the board the following season and was an All-Star three years later. While many would argue that Andruw never reached the potential we set out for him, it didn't change the fact that he had a very productive - and possibly Hall of Fame worthy - career.

The other example is Dansby Swanson. Like Acuna, Swanson was an exciting player who rushed through the minors. He was hyped up as the future Derek Jeter and a frontrunner for the 2017 Rookie of the Year. But baseball happened. Now, the Braves are simply trying to jump-start Swanson so he can pivot into 2018 on a high note. If such a thing happened to Acuna, wouldn't it be nice to be able to have Markakis and Kemp in-house? Sure, neither are world beaters, but what are the chances that another Johan Camargo bails out the Braves here?

In the end, I would simply say this - I love Acuna as a player. I want only success for the young man. I believe in him. I also think that maybe the best way of bringing him to the big time is in a smaller role. Again, I'm not saying give him 200 plate appearances like you might a typical fourth outfielder. He'd play often as a platoon bat in right field, keeping Kemp fresh in left field, and giving Inciarte breathers in center field. He'd be part of the mix, not a traditional backup. And either through a midseason trade of Kemp or Markakis or the latter leaving after 2018, Acuna would simply slide into a starting spot.

It worked for Andruw. More than 20 years later, it's time to try it again with Acuna.

Ronald Acuna Not Getting Called Up? Maybe That's Good

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

John Hart stopped by with Chip Carey and Joe Simpson during Wednesday night's game to talk about a host of issues. During it, we found out that Ronald Acuna was unlikely to be called up this year. Why not, you might wonder. Acuna is one of the best prospects in baseball and he has a .423 wOBA at Triple-A? Why not bring him up to get his feet wet? Because of the 40-man roster concerns this winter, that's why. Now whether or not the Braves follow through and refuse the temptation to call up Acuna this season - baseball general managers are notorious for changing their mind on a dime - the reality of the situation has some factual basis. With that in mind, today I want to look at the potential 40-man roster concerns after this season.

Just a few reminders. Every team has two rosters - the Active roster (usually 25-man) and the 40-man roster. Everyone on the Active roster is also on the 40-man roster. The other 15 players are a mixture of minor leaguers and - typically - injured major leaguers currently on the 10-day DL. Once a player is placed on the 40-man roster, he will typically remain on it until one of three things happens - he no longer is under contract by the organization, he is designated for assignment (and waived), or he is on the 60-day DL. That last designation doesn't clear jo, for good, though. When a player is able to return from the 60-day DL, he either has to be placed on the 40-man roster or designated for assignment and exposed to the other teams via waivers. But I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, right?

With all of that in mind, let's dive in. Atlanta's 40-man roster currently has 39 players on it. This is a common practice by the Braves, who like to keep a spot open in case it's needed to make an immediate move (waiver pickup, call-up, etc). You might say that there is an open spot so why not bring up Acuna? We'll get back to that.

Of those 39 players, the Braves "control" 36 of them into next season. That's just a way of saying that it's up to the Braves whether or not they bring back the player in 2018. For most of the players, they are either arbitration-eligible or will have their contracts renewed because they haven't reached arbitration. In the case of Tyler Flowers and R.A. Dickey, the Braves hold options to retain their services. Others like Julio Teheran, Ender Inciarte, and Matt Kemp have contracts that guarantee them a salary in 2018. Immediately, you might see a problem. All but four spots are already locked up for next year's 40-man roster? Isn't that kind of tight?

But that's not all. It gets even tighter when you take into account the players on the 60-day DL right now like Jacob Lindgren, Armando Rivero, and Dan Winkler. Regardless of their injury situation at the end of the season, the Braves will have to transfer them to the 40-man roster or risk losing them. Say that they do. Now, we're back to that 39 number. Only one spot empty.

Of course, the Braves aren't going to bring back all 39 of these players. There will be trades, guys will get non-tendered, and others will be designated for assignment to make room and we'll address some of the players most likely to be in the mix for that. You might think the Braves will be searching for room for free agents, but the primary reason people will be shuffled off the 40-man roster at the end of the season will be to allow the Braves to keep players who would be otherwise eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Quick reminder - players eligible for the Rule 5 draft are typically those that were younger than 19 on June 4 of their signing year five years ago or players who were 19 or older on June 4 of their signing year four years ago. In the simplest terms, that's typically high schoolers/international signees from 2013 or college-age draftees from 2014. There are exceptions, but let's not get too bogged down with the details just yet.

In practical terms, let's see what this means for the Braves. Some of the most noteworthy players to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this season include five players who made our Midseason Top 50 in Luiz Gohara, Travis Demeritte, Dustin Peterson, Tyler Pike, and Caleb Dirks. I want to point out that Pike is a little different because he's been eligible before. A few others include Tanner Murphy, Michael Mader, and Omar Obregon, but let's focus on just the five I mentioned a couple of sentences ago. If the Braves want to protect all five from being drafted, that adds to the 39 players I counted before. So, with that, we're four players over and the Braves haven't signed anyone yet.

Again, many of these players will be shuffled off the roster through the various means of removing a player from the 40-man. One common tool is to non-tender an arbitration-eligible player. Who's getting Arby this year? This list includes Matt Adams, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, and potential first-year arbitration players like Danny Santana, Mike Foltynewicz, and possibly Sam Freeman. Interestingly enough, there is a possibility that Winkler will be eligible for arbitration. Yeah. Of this list, we know Adams, Vizcaino, and Foltynewicz will be offered arbitration. The Braves could bring back others, but do their performances deserve raises in pay due to arbitration? Let's say the Braves pass on the other players on the list and we're back to 39 players on the 40-man roster.

The Braves can shave some others off the list by designating them for assignment. Prime candidates for that might include Lane Adams, Enrique Burgos, Adonis Garcia, and Micah Johnson.

At that point, the Braves would have room to acquire players ahead of the Rule 5 draft and still have a chance to dip their toes in the water for that draft should they want to.

I started this article by talking about Acuna so let's get back to him. Say the Braves call him up now. While it makes for a great story as Acuna began the year in High-A ball, it also makes all of this 40-man roster maneuvering all the more difficult. Unlike Gohara and Demeritte, the Braves don't have to place Acuna on the 40-man roster this offseason. A similar thing happened in 2009. As the Braves struggled through a final couple of months with Garret Anderson, Nate McLouth, and Matt Diaz/Ryan Church playing the outfield, many wanted the Braves to call up Jason Heyward. He destroyed the ball with Mississippi before ending the year with Gwinnett. Certainly, he's a better option than watching a substandard outfield fail to produce.

The Braves stressed that J-Hey wasn't ready, but the bigger reason was the Braves could use the 40-man roster room. Heyward wasn't placed on the 40-man roster until right before opening day the next spring. That gave the Braves a little more room to make decisions that offseason. Calling up Acuna before the end of this season might make the fans happy, but it will also make choices after the World Series a bit tougher.

What do you think? Do you think the Braves should just put together the best roster regardless of 40-man and Rule 5 concerns or should the Braves give an appropriate amount of consideration to these factors to not compound the issues they will already have keeping this amazing collection of young talent together? I look forward to hearing what you have to say. As a fan, I want to see Acuna sooner rather than later. As a fan who tries to stay informed, I'll wait. The Braves have enough complicated decisions this offseason.

Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Walk-Off Talk 1.8: The Trading Deadline Extravaganza

(Stephen Tolbert and Ryan Cothran have joined me, Tommy Poe, for a conversation on Braves' targets for the trading deadline.)

Tommy: It's the final weekend before the Non-Waiver Trading Deadline and the Atlanta Braves are in the middle of scores of rumors. Atlanta has already completed two trades as they pull off the shocker and find a new home for the well-liked, well-regarded, well-travelled, well-named Chaz Roe. Oh, and they traded Jaime Garcia, too. But will that be it? Chances are no.

Atlanta is in a weird place where they both want to sell off assets they no longer need or want and also acquire assets that they can play a role for next year's club and beyond. It builds on last year's efforts in which guys like Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur were shipped out but Matt Kemp was acquired (albeit, in large part to get rid of He Who Shall Not Be Named).

That is why the Braves have both been shopping deals for Brandon Phillips and trying to acquire a big name starter - such as Sonny Gray.

On Tuesday, you talked about Gray, Stephen. The price tag for such a pitcher is stiff, but the reward is potentially great as well. After an injury-filled down year in 2016, Gray's numbers have reverted back to their 2014-15 levels in which Gray posted a combined 6.8 fWAR during his first two full seasons in the majors. In his Age-27 season, Gray has two more years of arbitration left and if he continues to pitch at his current level, could be peaking at the right time.

Gray has his issues - which many fans are quick to point out. He's a groundball pitcher who relies a good deal on his defense making plays. That said, he is carrying a career-high 23.5% strikeout rate into action Wednesday so it's not like he can't get strikeouts. A big reason for his increased strikeout rate is a better feel for his changeup, which has made it more effective. Others would point out that he's a health risk. A pair of unrelated injuries put him on the shelf twice last season while a lat strain suffered in spring cost him the first month of action this season. It's worth mentioning that he threw 427 combined innings in 2014-15 so he's flashed durability in the majors.

Could Newcomb get a new rotation mate in Sonny Gray? | Chris Blessing

Like most potential trade targets for the Braves, the fit for this version of the Braves is a clear upgrade. The Braves' rotation has looked improved after the release of Bartolo Colon and improvement of R.A. Dickey, but it remains one of the weakest collection of starters in baseball and that was before you remove Garcia from the mix. Adding Gray won't fix all of those problems, but adding him means Mike Foltynewicz isn't the team ace. It means Julio Teheran's struggles might be easier to deal with. It means Sean Newcomb's emergence over the final two months is a little less important. Those three are controlled through 2019, the earliest Gray would hit free agency.

But the biggest issue in regards to Gray is the price tag - and I'm not talking salary. The first player the A's have apparently asked about was Ronald Acuna. Naturally, that is a non-starter. Ozzie Albies is logically the next player the A's might be interested in - though a package of Cristian Pache and pitching arms (along with a closer offensive prospect like Dustin Peterson) might be enough to convince Billy Beane.

Of course, that's a best-cases scenario and those don't develop often. The Braves' interest in Gray is at least matched or exceeded by other clubs, including the Yankees who are considering a blockbuster deal for both Gray and Yonder Alonso. Such interest inflates the price for Gray even more.

I'm going to throw out my thinking and see if it matches up with you two. Stephen, I think we're on the same side of things actually. Is Gray worth a top package? In this market? Abso-freaking-lutely. But is he worth a top package of Braves prospects to the Braves? Here is where I start to pull away. If the Braves can discuss an Albies/Acuna-less package of players and the A's sign off on it, I'm game. Let's make a deal. But if the A's hold out - and they probably should - for Albies or Acuna, I'm walking.

So, to you two, what are the chances the A's do go for a package without Albies or Acuna? Should Atlanta at least consider a swap even if Albies is in it? And more generally, do you believe Gray is "that guy?" Is he a pitcher worthy of such a price tag in the first place - whether or not you're willing to pay it withstanding?

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Stephen: Hello boys. Always enjoy these. Yeah so obviously I just wrote about this so my thoughts are pretty well known.

From the A’s point of view, they see the package the White Sox just pulled in for Jose Quintana, which included one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and they want something similar, which is fair. There was a report out yesterday they were interested in Ronald Acuña which is close to water being wet territory in terms of newsworthiness but they have every right to hope for the moon. And, honestly, given their financial disadvantage, it would be committing malpractice if they didn't at least ask. But asking doesn't mean getting and there's zero chance Atlanta gives up any of their top prospects for a guy who's only under control for 2 more years after 2017.

And it's that last part that really is the crux of the issue with Gray. I think he's a fantastic pitcher and I may even be higher on him than most but, as I wrote yesterday, while matching up talent is important, matching up timing is equally important. Atlanta simply isn't ready to maximize a guy like Gray with multiple playoff berths because they simply aren't there yet in their timeline.

I really like Sonny Gray and there will come a point where acquiring a guy like him is exactly what Atlanta needs to do. They just haven't reached that point yet.

Ok Ryan, how do you see the Sonny Gray situation?

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Ryan: If there was some way for the Braves to pull off a quantity over quality, sending the A’s 4-5 mid-level prospects that don’t seem to factor into the Braves future plans, then I’m all-in. Unfortunately, this is not going to be the scenario and Sonny Gray will likely land two blue-chippers and a few throw-ins. For me, that’s a kicking and screaming NO!  If he was under control for four years and hadn’t had injury problems or lackluster results last year, I’d be down. But make no mistake, this is a buy-high and he’s THE guy right now that many teams want and Braves just aren’t in a position to be selling their farm yet for 2.5 years of control. John Hart said this after the Braves went and met with Jon Lester prior to his free agency: “He’s the right guy at the wrong time”.

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Stephen: So it looks like we all agree trading for Sonny Gray wouldn't be a wise decision given where the team currently is and what the price reportedly is so let's move to the next guy.

Fulmer | Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Our next candidate certainly isn't one we have to worry about how long the team controls him. Michael Fulmer is having a really good sophomore year for the Detroit Tigers, who appear to be on the verge of their own rebuild. Detroit has spent the last decade paying for the present by mortgaging their future and it looks like that bill is about to come due. Massive long term contract to aging players have left the Tigers without many actual trade chips which is why they may consider moving Fulmer for the right price.

One thing that makes him so attractive as a trade piece is his age, and therefore his salary. Fulmer is 24 and in his second year in the majors meaning he has 4 years of team control at a highly affordable rate.

Another positive for Fulmer is how he's able to consistently keep the ball on the ground. His ground ball rate sits at 50%, well above league average, which obviously means he's also able to get the ball in the ballpark. In a perfect world, I'd like to see him miss a few more bats but you can't have everything.

All of this, of course, means he wouldn't come cheap in a trade and if Atlanta really wanted him, it'd take a decent size chunk out of their farm system.

The other possibility from Detroit would be taking on Justin Verlander and some of his mega deal. Verlander is getting paid $28M a year for the 2018 and 2019 seasons before becoming a free agent again so Detroit would definitely have to take on a chunk of that just to give him away. If they want anything real in return, they'd have to take even bigger of chunk.

The primary reason for that is Verlander really isn't that great anymore. He has league average ERA, league average FIP, league average strikeout rates...you get it. He's just an average pitcher now and while that has value, it doesn't have 28M/year in value.

So what you two think of the Detroit guys? Anything interesting there or hard pass? Ryan, we’ll start with you
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Ryan: When discussing Fulmer, not much is different from my opinion on Gray, and that is the Braves just aren't in a position to do a move like this quite yet. If the next wave of pitchers and position players come up (Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Allard,etc.) and show they can be big league commodities, then a surplus develops and it's easier to bite a chunk out of the farm. So, for me, I'm not ready to see a trade that costs the Braves 3-4 top 10 prospects.

Now Verlander? You're getting into my territory. Regardless of what the Tigers say, a Verlander trade will not bring a big haul back to Detroit. This is where the Braves could land a dependable starter at a discounted prospect price and, hopefully, a discounted actual price. However, in regards to this kind of move, Verlander is down my list 2-3 spots.

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Tommy: Essentially, we are hoping to be on the other side of a Melvin Upton/Craig Kimbrel exchange here. Pay less in terms of prospects because you are taking on an overpriced asset that could make it more difficult to rebuild. It worked out for the Padres as when they used the desired commodity (Kimbrel) in another trade, they got much better value than they surrendered in the first place.

The problem I see is will Verlander agree to a trade to a team that isn’t yet in contention? He carries a full no-trade protection - something Detroit hands out like candy - and can Atlanta even convince him to come south even if they wanted him to?

Separating Fullmer from Verlander might be not only more preferable for the Braves, but a necessity if Verlander declines to go with Fullmer. Another pathway isn’t as dramatic but still, would give the Tigers a little financial freedom. Taking back Ian Kinsler in the trade would save the Tigers roughly $9-$10M when you factor in Kinsler’s buyout for 2018. Atlanta could try to flip Kinsler, of course. They could also take back Anibal Sanchez, who is owed around $12-$13M (another $5 buyout for next year included).

Again, these are not significant salaries to tie in with Fullmer, but other assets like Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann have some degree of no-trade protection which could make it difficult to trade for their contracts - which is essentially what we are talking about here.

Say Verlander does agree. There might be a way to keep the Tigers from not having to pay the Braves money to pay off some of the right-hander’s salary. The Braves could opt to send Matt Kemp to the Tigers. There are a couple of problems with such a proposal. One, the deal doesn't provide enough financial relief. Kemp's salary is about $13M less over the next two seasons than Verlander. Detroit might want a little more financial freedom and the Braves could offer to add an additional $3.5M the next two years to give the Tigers at least $20 extra million in financial relief over the next two seasons - plus whatever prospects.

As for the prospects, Atlanta can use their wealth of starting pitching plus some positional prospects to try to smooth over a deal. Say something along the lines of Aaron Blair, Kolby Allard, Lucas Sims, Travis Demeritte, Kemp, and $7M for Verlander and Fullmer. I’d also see what it might take to add Justin Wilson to the trade and hope the presence of Verlander might keep Wilson’s price tag from not being as significant as this trading market demands for good relievers.

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Ryan: Well that was more like it! All different takes. I like it! I just feel with Fulmer’s asking price and Verlander’s expensive contract and a no-trade clause, we just typed a whole lot for nothing.  But if we really want to start typing a bunch of nothing, let’s talk about Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton!

This is a tall-tale in the mold of David vs. Goliath, but we aren’t referring to physical size, but contract size.  Let’s look at their contracts:

Yelich | hueytaxi on Flickr[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Yelich: Under team control through 2022 on a team friendly deal that would max out at a total of 58.25MM for ‘18-’22 (5 years).

Stanton: Lifetime contract, bajillion dollars. I mean, heck. That’s what it seems like. Seriously, the contract runs through 2028 (he’d be 39) and it pays him anywhere between 25 and 32MM annually.

So, why are we discussing these 2 bozos? Well, I think it has a lot to do with a ridiculous tweet that a bigger bozo (me) sent out earlier this week. Most met this tweet with outrage and rightfully so as taking on a 300MM contract is absurd, right? Well, maybe it is but dig a bit deeper.  If the Braves could package Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp, who most consider dead money at this time, you’re essentially getting Stanton for $240MM. Well...that’s still crazy. But it did make me think and swing my head to the left...that is left field and there I found Christian Yelich. This dude has a pretty tasty contract, plays fair defense, is only 25, and can hit. Not only can he hit, but he’s a left-handed hitter which looks as though will play well at Suntrust Park. But he’ll be expensive...like 2-3 top 10 prospects expensive. While it’d be nice to have both of these guys in a Braves uniform, let’s be realistic for a moment:

There’s minuscule chance a mid-market team takes on Giancarlo’s absurd contract, especially one as frugal as the Braves.

Yelich is a good player, but as stated above, the price at this point just doesn’t make sense for the team. The next wave needs to hit and Braves need to see what sticks before really addressing any areas of need and trading away assets. There will be some traded, but I don’t think trading now is the answer.

Tommy, am I wrong? I prefer to be right but I can accept defeat as well…

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Tommy: For a change, I’m kind of hoping you aren’t wrong.

I love Christian Yelich. Absolutely love the guy. Even though his numbers are a little down compared to last year, he's one of the quiet superstars in the game and a big-time performer in the lineup.

With Giancarlo, it's hard not to love his power. 240 homers in less than a thousand games? Yes, please. He has a good idea of the strike-zone and gives his team impact potential with each plate appearance.

But unlike Yelich, his contract is just all kinds of ugly for the franchise. Especially for a guy who has avoided time on the DL just once in his seven full-time seasons. So, that brings me back to Yelich and I have to admit it's difficult not to get a little nutty here. Can you imagine an outfield of Yelich, Ender Inciarte, and Ronald Acuna? It's an embarrassment of riches. Oh, and he has four more years under his contract for a very affordable deal as you brought up.

Yelich is exactly the kind of expensive, controllable player the Braves are seeking. He’s signed long-term to a contract that suits the team very well. Here’s the “but” because we knew it was coming. But this only works if the Marlins are willing to take pitching and a lot of it. Luckily, the Marlins desperately need that particular commodity. The unfortunate death of Jose Fernandez left them with a massive hole in their rotation that is currently relying on Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez to fill in the void. Further, while the Marlins have some decent arms in the minors, what they don't have is a Kolby Allard, or a Mike Soroka, or even a Luiz Gohara. The farm system has been wrecked in recent years and currently has no one in the MLB.com Top 100.

Sometimes, you have to make a tough choice to give up on a young-and-exciting talent to try to gobble up more of those type of players. The Braves lived that rebuild. It might be time for Miami to do the same and if Yelich hits the trade market, I imagine the Braves would be one team that will step up to the table and play some "Let's Make a Deal."

As for Stanton...he can continue to enjoy Miami during a rebuild.

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Stephen: So this is interesting and a place where I probably differ than most.

First of all Ryan is correct, the likelihood of either of these guys being moved is slim at best considering the team is currently in the process of being sold. Moves like this are usually made by the new owners, not the old ones, so while Miami eventually will have to make some tough decisions on these guys, it probably won't happen until after they're sold.

But if we only talked about trades that are likely to happen, we'd never talk about trades and where's the fun in that?

Yelich is a fascinating player to me because everything about him screams superstar except one really weird thing. Since he debuted in 2013, no player in the NL has hit the ball on the ground more than Christian Yelich. He's at almost 60% for his career and that was shocking to me considering the numbers he's put up. You add that to the meh offensive year he's having this year (113 wRC+ GB% at 57%) and the exorbitant cost it would take to acquire him and I don't know, I pause.

It's silly because he really is a great player but he just has to do so much damage on the ball he doesn't hit on the ground, it just gives him a smaller margin of error than most. I know I'm stupid.

With Stanton, normally I prefer the route of taking on money to acquire talent instead of giving up prospects. Money replenishes at a quicker rate than talent does. But this is a whole new level of money. Stanton is still owed 295M over the next 10 years and that much money combined with his injury history would give me cold sweats at night as a GM. The talent is unprecedented but the value is the combination of talent and cost and right now, Stanton’s cost speaks louder than his talent. Unless Miami is willing to eat significant dollars, it's a hard pass for me.

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Tommy: All of that is fair, Stephen. Moving on from guys that are getting a lot of trade rumors play, I want to move onto the guy we think is the best fit for what the Braves might need. And with that in my mind, the Braves should go after Marcus Stroman.

Stroman | Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Before I address the mega elephant in the room, Stroman is in his fourth year since coming up in 2014. There's a missed campaign in 2015 where he made just four starts, but other than that, he's been a durable workhorse. The only other time he missed any notable time was because of a suspension for methylhexaneamine, a common “stimulant found in over-the-counter dietary supplements" back in 2012. And that injury I mentioned? That was knee surgery - not an arm issue.

Since 2014, Stroman ranks in the Top 30 in both FIP and xFIP. He has the second-best groundball rate in that time frame to Dallas Kuechel, who is a very similar pitcher. He does everything you are looking for and he's only improving as he's getting more whiffs than ever. His sinker is one of the best versions of that pitch and he uses it half of the time - without suffering as a result.

Stroman is also one of baseball's top showman - a reason to put butts in the stands and enjoy one of the game's very best practicing his craft. He even hit his first homerun this year in interleague action. He should be in the NL where the antiquated idea of a pitcher hitting is still in vogue.

But there's a catch. He won't come cheap and I don't just mean the package the Braves will have to surrender. As a Super 2 arbitration-eligible player, Stroman already has reached the $3.4M plateau in salary after beating the Jays in arbitration last spring. That means big money for both 2019 and 2020 as he goes through a third and fourth year of arbitration if he's not signed to a long-term deal beforehand.

And then there's the price in prospects that make this deal a little pie-in-the-sky. Okay, "little" is an understatement. The Blue Jays apparently aren't interested in dealing their controllable assets. I wouldn't be either, but the Jays aren't exactly getting younger. The Braves could try a similar approach to the Fullmer one we discussed and take back salary to make the deal more attractive. J.A. Happ is due $13M next year and the Jays could jumpstart a quick rebuild centered around their influx of young-and-talented position prospects and the pitching prospects the Braves and others might surrender for their assets.

The price would be significant. Likely, it would be too much to bear. But if there is some room to work here, Stroman would be the perfect addition at the perfect time for the right team.

Stephen, who is your guy that you think will fit perfectly for the Braves?

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Stephen: So my guy is a little out of nowhere and I'm not sure how many people have ever actually heard of him but I want 3B Yandy Diaz of the Cleveland Indians.

Yandy has been on my radar for a couple years now as it's become clear that 3B was a bit of an organizational hole. He got a cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year but he's basically a prospect at this point. Of course when I see that, what I see is 5 or 6 years of team control at an affordable rate so that's a plus for me.

As far as why Yandy, all you have to do look at numbers he's put up in the upper minors the last few years:

• 2015 (AA): 143 wRC+
• 2016 (AA): 144 wRC+
• 2016 (AAA): 149 wRC+
• 2017 (AAA): 151 wRC+

And it's not just the production, but the underlying skill:

• 2015 (AA) BB% 14%  K% 11%
• 2016 (AA) BB% 22%  K% 14%
• 2016 (AAA) BB% 11%  K% 15%
• 2017 (AAA) BB% 15%  K% 15%

That kind of production matched with that kind of discipline is rare and I'd love Atlanta to find a way to get him. Cleveland is a win now team with an All-Star 3B in Jose Ramirez so it's not crazy think Diaz could be had if Atlanta could send something their way to help their 2017 club. Their catchers and 2B have been pretty terrible this year so maybe some combination of Phillips and Suzuki plus maybe a reliever? I don't know.

All I know is Yandy is exactly the type of prospect I think gets undervalued in today's game. His consistent production against the highest levels of minor league baseball combined with his rare level of plate discipline make him one of my favorite potential targets and one I hope Atlanta takes a serious look at.

Ok Ryan, who's the guy you hope the Braves make a run at?

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Ryan: Well...it’s no secret that my buy-low guy was Jeff Samardzija but that has been stomped and burned as we found out a few days back that the Braves are not one of the teams that he’d accept a trade to...disheartening. There were some wrinkles when acquiring The Shark but combine his peripherals with a team that (hopefully) features the best framing catching combo in the league (and yes, this is my plug to extend Suzuki for another year) and I think we could have had a K-machine that sports a mid-3 ERA.  In addition to that thought, I think the Giants would have to send over a good chunk of cash to get any deal done. Yet, once again I typed a paragraph for no reason...so I’ll move on now.

Sometimes matchups with teams seem like no-brainers and as an armchair GM, it’s easy to harp on these ideas.  However, there are some cases where teams are making pushes and everything just seems to come together.  The Braves just so happen to have Julio Teheran, Matt Adams, and Brandon Phillips, all which seem to be available in some sort of capacity. Also, there just so happens to be a team that has been shuffling the deck all season at 1st base that has also suffered late injuries to their starting 2nd baseman AND a starting pitcher in the rotation. How about we take a look at ravaging a system one more time before this rebuild is complete? So I don’t have a “guy” per se, rather guys. Making this kind of deal really puts me out of my comfort zone, but I’m looking at at least 3 top-10 prospects.  So here’s where my idea gets interesting.  Yankees have 3 great players on the shelf for quite a while in Michael Pineda, Dustin Fowler, and Gleyber Torres. While I don’t think they’d sell-low on all of these guys,  2 of the 3 could be in play. It’s a risk…a risk that I’ve warned about in the past, but I’m willing to roll the dice one more time. My proposed deal:

Yankees get Julio Teheran, Matt Adams, Brandon Phillips
Braves get Chase Headley, Michael Pineda, Dustin Fowler,  Miguel Andujar, and 2 lower level prospects.

A future 3B, a 2018 fill-in 3B (or offseason trade piece), a future star RFer, and a roll of the dice stud SP.

Who’s with me?  Likely not Yankees fans!  Go Braves!