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Showing posts with label Francisco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Francisco. Show all posts

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Random Prospect Sunday: Jordan Edgerton

The Atlanta Braves are still trying to replace Chipper Jones.

They moved Joey Terdoslavich to third base in hopes he would somehow be a competent third baseman despite being a statue at first base. They brought Juan Francisco on board with dreams of big homer totals, but couldn't live with his .281 OBP as a Brave. Chris Johnson was given a long-term deal despite not having long-term success. Even when a young third baseman looked like he would be ready to contribute, they traded him away (I still am iffy on the Kyle Kubitza trade).

Photo Credit to Gondeee. Visit his blog!
But now, they have a couple of options that could be in Atlanta for good before long. Of course, Rio Ruiz is the front runner. Acquired in the Evan Gattis trade, Ruiz is in AA right now struggling with the bat, but it's difficult to hit when you have a .207 BABIP. He'll be fine. Though, if he wasn't and somehow forgot to hit once he came to Atlanta, there is another option. In Rome, Jordan Edgerton has hit from the moment he joined the system last June and looks like he might be grow into a good prospect. In fact, that 2014 class looks pretty good for a guy (Frank Wren) who didn't care about the farm system (because that totally makes sense).

Born August 30, 1993 in Mount Holly, North Carolina, Edgerton grew up like so many southern kids in the 90's did. He was a Braves fan. But he went undrafted out of high school and he wasn't much of a target by a big school in the ACC or SEC. Instead, he went to the University of North Carolina-Pembroke of the Peach Belt Conference. Yeah, that's a thing, apparently. It's worth mentioning that the mascot for Pembroke is the Braves. As for Edgerton, he hit just .248 as a freshman, but did play in 38 games which shows that Pembroke was counting on him to be a big part of the picture.

In 2013, Edgerton broke out as a sophomore. He flirted with .400 before finishing with a .392 average. He filled out his stats line with 19 2B, a triple, nine homers, and six steals. He didn't walk much, but he rarely struck out (14 walks, 17 K's). His junior campaign saw his average "fall" to .369, but he increased his OBP via a ridiculous 22 BB/9 K rate. He also slugged .608 and stole 13 bases. For his run at Pembroke, Edgerton slashed .352/.398/.545 with 22 HR in 591 AB and 20 steals. It's worth mentioning that Pembroke is a hitter's park, though.

Baseball America ranked Edgerton as the 437th best player in the 2014 draft, but the Braves had Edgerton hit the top of their draft board when their ninth round selection and 283rd overall pick came up. A few weeks later, they settled on a $115,000 bonus and Edgerton reported to Danville for the 2014 season. He had a multiple hit game in his first game and homered in his fourth outing. In his first home game, he doubled three times against Greeneville. His first eleven games included 17 RBI as he hit .439 with a 1.236 OPS. His numbers over the final two months slumped as his OPS during that run was closer to .600. He homered just once over 48 games and showed an obvious preference for hitting southpaws over right-handers.

Nevertheless, he was a guy who attracted some interest last offseason. When Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs was asked about guys from each round who had improved their stock from where it was when they were drafted, Edgerton was mentioned specifically as a guy out of the 9th round who "ATL LOVES the early returns on."

So far this season, that love affair has only continued. In 30 games with Danville, Edgerton has yet to homer, but has hit .342/.379/.436. He's been a bit more aggressive and isn't walking nearly as much as he did last season and his strikeouts are slightly up, but a .815 OPS has a way of making things look a bit better.

The scouting report on Edgerton isn't quite finished because he remains young, but there is some questions if he'll hit for much power. He has a line drive stroke and will make a lot of contact. On the high end, he could be a 35 double, 20 HR type with good on-base numbers to boot. But that's the high end. One thing is for sure is that the Braves love his makeup and there is obvious pluses in his numbers that justify that love. What could possibly derail him? If the lower end looks more probable and he hits 25 doubles with single digit homeruns like the Braves sadly found from Joe Leonard, that could certainly hurt his chances.

A bigger concern in my mind is his defense. While the pre-draft reports didn't put much stock in his high error numbers at Pembroke, so far, he has continued to struggle defensively. In 83 professional games, he has 20 errors. Now, any minor league observation of error totals comes with the caveat that minor league infields aren't nearly as professionally taken care of as major league infields, the guys at first are rarely as adapt at saving their infielders, and minor league defenders often are still learning not to rush every throw. That's all well and good, but for Edgerton to become a real prospect, he has to stay at third because his bat is unlikely to be as intriguing as a left fielder. For what it's worth, Ruiz has twice as many errors well over three times as many games.

But Edgerton still could surpass Ruiz at some point, though it would be a surprise mainly because of how well regarded Ruiz is - I had Ruiz fifth with a B grade before trading Craig Kimbrel brought Matt Wisler aboard. Ruiz is sixth now. Edgerton missed my Top 30, though the graduations of a couple of players could push him into the Midseason Top 30, but he'll still be well below Ruiz. But long term, Edgerton has a profile that could have Edgerton climbing the prospect charts provided he stays at third base.

You can followed Edgerton on Twitter.

Recent Random Prospects
Felix Marte
Joseph Daris
Tyler Jones

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Spring Training Preview: Outfield

Previous previews: Starting Rotation / Bullpen / Catcher & Infield

The Atlanta Braves have invested at least $48M into the outfield this offseason to go with an additional $46.35M that was already on the books. Regardless, many believe that this might be one of the worst outfields in baseball. Too bad money can't buy talent. Well, it should, but apparently, it doesn't.

Welcome to the last pre-spring training preview for the pre-Braves. While there are question marks all over the team, some of the biggest remain in the outfield, which was gutted by trades. With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Doumit, Jason Heyward, and Justin Upton. The first two names were crash-and-burn utility types that struggled with the Braves, but the losses of Heyward and Upton in the same offseason will be particularly difficult to replace. While there is a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that Heyward was not the offensive juggernaut that many projected him to be, for a team that didn't get on base last year, replacing a .351 OBP is no easy task. Nor is replacing Upton's 29 HR and .270/.342/.491 slash. Again, like Heyward, reasonable people can say Upton was not the player many projected him to be. Even so, that's a 7 WAR player over the last two years the Braves will not have around in 2015.

Right Field


The simple replacement for Heyward is the $44M man, Nick Markakis. My thoughts on the deal are both on this blog and at my About.com site, but suffice it to say, I get why people argue that Markakis replaces Heyward in many ways with the bat. I also understand if people think Markakis replaces Heyward in the field considering he has two Gold Gloves. I get it, but the Braves did take a step back in right field and the reasons are clear.

  • Age - Markakis is six years older than Heyward. While the latter is entering the prime of his career, the former will likely be heading into the post-prime of his. Heyward can improve while Markakis has a strong chance to get worse.
  • Defense - Gold Gloves are nice and I'm sure the Braves have proprietary defensive metrics that likely state Markakis is better than the widely available defensive metrics argue, but Heyward's defense was top notch. Even if Markakis outplays his is typically below league average UZR, he will look bad compared to Heyward.
  • Baserunning - Well, duh.

Now, that's not to say the Braves should have kept Heyward, whose contract extension should be an interesting one considering his collection of all-around talent and potential to get better. No, my point is simply that this isn't a lateral move. The Braves are worse in right field. It's worth adding that Markakis's neck surgery is not expected to keep him from being ready for spring training.

Center Field


Let's get one thing straight. The Braves do not have a better option than B.J. Upton. I'll mention a slew of guys who are around in the bench section of this article, but the Braves' best option is to play Justin's older brother and hope the work Melvin has put in this offseason with new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer  pays off. We can look at B.J.'s problems all day, but a couple of things stand out to me. His groundball rate is up from the 40% range it was in his final three years with the Rays to about 44% with the Braves. That means less flyballs. Less flyballs means less extra base hits. Less extra base hits means less value. Less value loses games.

Whether it was his vision problem or a swing problem, B.J.'s not getting around on fastballs. He either misses or beats them into the ground. When he does elevate them, he tends to pop them up. Contrary to what you've seen with B.J. as a Brave, he was a pretty good fastball hitter with the Rays. The uppercut in his swing has always made him a good breaking ball hitter (and he was last year), but 60% of the time, he's being thrown fastballs. That's nothing abnormal, but he used to hit those pretty solidly, especially in his last two seasons with the Rays. This has led to a notable decrease in Zone-Contact% from over 80% with the Rays to about 73% with the Braves. That's a lot of pitches in the zone that he's swinging and missing on.

He still remains the best option for the Braves. That's not to prop up the guy or anything, but it's an observation based on the alternatives and the fact that B.J., despite his defensive miscues from time-to-time, is still a pretty good defender. His speed and generally smart routes is supported by a decent rate in Inside Edge Fielding on balls that have a remote or unlikely chance of being fielded.

Left Field/Bench


The Braves do not have one player capable of being an everyday guy in left. I have blogged a couple of times that the best option is likely a platoon and I think the two best options for that platoon are Zoilo Almonte and Jonny Gomes. The latter was brought in specifically to be the right-hand hitting portion of a platoon. Oh, and to crack jokes in the clubhouse. Whether he's funny or not withstanding, he remains a threat against left-hand starters and relievers alike. Even though he has a vesting option for 2016, I imagine he will be trade bait unless the Braves are THE surprise club of 2015. Almonte is a switch-hitter and probably a better fielder, which allows him to caddy Gomes. In addition, he has shown a good ability to hit right-handed pitching in the minors. Together, they could make a solid platoon that - again - could combine for an .800 or so OPS.

But there are certainly other options. Recently signed Eric Young Jr. has received a lot of positive press, though I imagine it's because people still think he's the hitter his dad was. Young possesses a career .662 OPS for a reason. The good news is that he's a fairly skilled defender, especially in left field. With his speed and ability to move to the infield in the pinch along with playing center if needed, that could be enough to secure a spot on the bench. Still, if EY Jr. is starting for you more than a handful of times per month, you should see what you have in Gwinnett.

Which might be Eury Perez, a guy I profiled when the Braves claimed him. Perez has hit pretty solidly at least in terms of batting average in the minors, but shows little plate discipline and appears vulnerable to righties. He's a better defender than Young and if the Braves absolutely want to play someone over B.J., Perez is likely the only option who can at least match, if not surpass, B.J.'s defensive capabilities in center.

Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham should have a youtube series about hijinks in Gwinnett. The two have been stuck in AAA for the last few years trying to get an opportunity. Terdo can move to first if you need him to, but is limited to a substandard corner outfielder otherwise. He's displayed pretty good power in the minors at times and his switch-hit bat could interest the Braves as a bench option, though I doubt he'll be part of the LF battle royale unless he's sold his soul for a better hit tool. Cunningham didn't play in the majors last year, but did post a .754 OPS in the minors, which is good for his second-best OPS. He has the skills and intelligence to play a passable center field and if he sustains pop from last year (28 2B, 8 HR), he could push Perez on the depth chart.

Jose Constanza is still alive.

Another option is Dian Toscano. The 25 year-old who hits from the left side is probably limited to left field, but the Braves liked the Cuban enough to promise him a nice major league contract. Kelly Johnson has played left field, including 50 games with the Rays in 2013, and even picked up a start in right field last year. You might think he would be a reasonable possibility to platoon with the right-hand-hitting Gomes, but KJ oddly has reserve splits, though the discrepancy is not that notable. Oh, Cedric Hunter got an invite to spring training after hitting .295/.386/.495 for Mississippi last year, but don't get your hopes up. Hunter was last a prospect in 2008.

Did I miss anyone? How the outfield takes shape may ultimately be decided by who is out of options at the end of spring training for another team and is getting squeezed out, such as the case with Juan Francisco in 2012. No matter how you slice it, there will be a lot of players battling for playing time, especially in left field. Whether the outfield is as bad as people thinks may ultimately depend on if B.J. can at least approach a league average production at the plate. With his speed and defense, that would give him, and the team, a good amount of value. Without those fairly low expectations for B.J. being reached, I can see why some have ranked the Braves outfield among the worst in the game. This is where you say, "that's why they play the game and baseball players aren't computers."

Friday, June 6, 2014

How Much of a Mistake was Chris Johnson's Extension?

When Chris Johnson inked a three year contract worth $23.5M with a fourth year option that could increase the deal to nearly $35M, it prompted a lot of questions. Was Johnson worth that money, especially coming off a career year that saw him slash .321/.358/.457? Was Johnson worth the commitment given that the Braves don't have a ready-replacement? Will giving extra cash now save money later and/or provide the team with a better idea of future payroll commitments with the Braves heading to Cobb County in the near future?

To me, the biggest question was "why?"  As in, why give Johnson an extension? Why commit to Johnson at this point in the game?

Johnson was acquired last offseason along with Justin Upton in the trade that sent Martin Prado and prospects to the Diamondbacks. The Braves were unwilling to commit to Prado at third base in the post-Chipper Jones era. Prado appeared to give the Braves a replacement for Jones and would likely move from left field to the hot corner. However, the Diamondbacks wanted Prado for his "grit" and "will to win" and Atlanta desired Upton's bat and ability to cash in Prado before he left via free agency. Bringing back Johnson made the deal easier for Arizona, who would have no place for the third basemen after acquiring Prado. Atlanta, meanwhile, needed options and trading Prado left them with Juan Francisco and not a whole lot else.

Supposedly the right-handed portion of a platoon with Francisco, Johnson hit from the start in 2013 and after attempting to showcase Fat Juan, the Braves merely found a taker willing to deal with Francisco and handed the job to Johnson. The result was a tremendous season where Johnson set career highs in many categories.

A Super 2 player, Johnson agreed to a $4.75M contract in his second year of arbitration and still had two more seasons of arbitration to go with. In that way, signing Johnson to a three year deal plus a fourth year option bought out two potentially expensive seasons of arbitration while bringing known totals to those years. On the other hand, would Johnson had made more than the $13.5M he will get the next two seasons? Possibly, though his play would have to earn it.

Beyond the financials of the deal, the Braves went all-in with Johnson, a guy whose defensive limitations they considered such an issue that of his 123 games started at third base in 2013, the Braves brought in someone else to replace him at third base 39% of the time. This season, that total is down to 13%, a reasonable total, and UZR much prefers him this season vs. last year (0.5 vs. -5.2), though even a league average season would be a major difference from his career. His -5.2 last year was the best of his career.

His BABIP has often been discussed into lengths. I've done it and many others have also done it. Last year's .394 BABIP was the second highest total in baseball between 2009 and 2013. Yet, with the greatest luck in the world, he could only OPS .816. Now, it's not fair to call it just luck. After all, Johnson has the third greatest BABIP since arriving in the majors. But even if his BABIP reaches historic levels, the production is often muted by a complete lack of discipline (4.6 BB%), underwhelming power numbers (.142 ISO), relatively average offensive production (104 wRC+).

According to fangraphs WAR, when converted into dollars, Johnson has been worth, including this season, about $17M as a major league baseball player. Now, there are inherent problems to this formula, but it's upsetting to guarantee so much money to a guy who hasn't played up to it. However, the Braves were banking on continued success from last year's 2.8 fWAR. When converted to dollars, that is fitting of a $13.8M salary in free agency. At that rate, Johnson becomes a bargain, even with his defensive flaws and offensive limitations.

However, if Johnson is a one-hit wonder, how much will the Braves go to regret this deal? By the numbers, if every win above replacement is worth between $4 and $5M, Johnson pays for himself provided he finishes with a 1.5 WAR or better season. The problem is that he's only done that once (last season) and if he doesn't hit, he doesn't produce. Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons could post strong WAR's and hit for crap, or at least like Johnson is currently hitting, because of their elite defense. If Johnson doesn't hit, it shows.

The good news for Johnson is that his previous history and age (29) suggest this season will improve closer to the mean. His BABIP is 20 points under his career, his BB% is down 3 points, his ISO is nearly half of what his career number would be, and as a result, all of his numbers have fell. There is a good shot that will rectify itself. How much? Check in again in October.

But to the original question...how much of a mistake was the extension? Maybe not a lot, but if it is a mistake, it's needless one to make. Why not go year-to-year in arbitration? The common argument would stand that the Braves saved money in arbitration with a longer term deal, but of those two more years of arbitration, the Braves committed $13.5M. That likely would have been close to what the Braves would have paid anyway. Why guarantee a third season? Why? It's a confusing decision. It's like the Braves got extension-happy and wanted to keep everyone together. Yes, the Braves don't have a lot of depth at third, though Kyle Kubitza has a .834 OPS at Mississippi while playing plus defense. And yes, there weren't a lot of exciting alternatives on the free agent market, though isn't that irrelevant considering Johnson was team-controlled through the 2016 season?  Why make this deal?

If Johnson's numbers normalize, he should be about a 5 WAR guy throughout the life of his contract, not including his option year. That makes the extension sensible on the face of it. But the need to make this contract happen...that's still missing. The flaws and limitations of Johnson's game. They exist and are likely to continue.

Frank Wren has made a lot of great, bold decisions. This extension to a player you probably would be better off going year-to-year with? Bold, yeah. But that's about it.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Once a Brave, Always a Brave - AL East

Today, I dust off a return of a weekly column that will look into how former Braves are performing around the majors. Let's start in the AL East where one of Atlanta's big free agents last offseason landed.

Baltimore
P Luis Ayala (AA) - Acquired last season, Ayala dealt with a bout of depression or anxiety or a stomach virus (different stories exist) that sent him to the Disabled List before finally working his way back through the minors for a 37 game run in Atlanta where he gave up a lot of baserunners (1.52 WHIP), but only ten runs and a 2.90 ERA. Unable to secure major league employment, Ayala went back to Orioles and pitched in five games for their AA Bowie team to little success. On Sunday, he opted out of his minor league deal and will head to Mexico to pitch.

P Chris Jones (AAA) - Traded for Ayala last season, Jones has worked in long relief for Baltimore's AAA team, Norfolk. Nothing notable about his numbers. He was originally in the Braves organization for just over a season after the Braves got him from Cleveland in the Derek Lowe deal. In his 8th year in the minors, the left-hander doesn't appear to be a guy who will be a major league fixture.

Boston
P Chris Resop (AAA) - Continuing to just stick around, Resop, now 31, has struck out about a batter an inning, even though his numbers outside of that are mediocre. Resop originally played with the Braves in 2008 and after a trip to Japan, pitched in one game in 2010 where he allowed five runs in two innings. Originally a fourth-rounder by the Marlins who played outfield for the first three seasons of his career before being switched to the mound.

C David Ross - In his second go-around with the Sox, Ross has struggled to match his production from his time in Atlanta and while a team leader, as evident by recent bench clearing incidents with the Rays, Ross doesn't seem likely to continue to get paid $3.1M as he has been since leaving the Braves. In four seasons as a backup to the new starting catcher in the Bronx, Ross hit .269/.353/.463. Wonder if a return to Atlanta after this season is in the cards?

New York Yankees
C Brian McCann - After an eight-and-a-half year run in Atlanta that included 176 homeruns, McCann left Atlanta last December for the bottomless pit known as the Yankees' wallet. The Braves had already replaced him with Evan Gattis. McCann has struggled in his new city, OPSing under .700. He's also began to get used to the idea of playing first base, receiving four games there with one start. McCann is currently a .730 OPS guy since the beginning of 2012. The Yankees may go on to regret this deal.

1B Mark Teixeira - They almost certainly haven't felt like they have received the proper production from Teix's deal. Now in his sixth season with the Yankees, he has spent pieces of the last three years on the DL, including playing just 15 games in 2013. While his first season was an elite campaign, follow-up years have seen him incapable of posting a SLG that touches .500. Still owed $45M over the next two seasons, Teix has been productive of late and might turn in a very good season after all. In his 157 games in Atlanta between trades, Teix hit .295 with a .943 OPS and 37 HR. At least he hit while he was here, I guess.

IF Kelly Johnson - Still only 32, KJ is a long ways away from his 2007-2009 run as the Braves starting second basemen. His .831 OPS in 2007 made me a fan, though follow-up efforts were not as successful. Since leaving Atlanta, outside of one year in Arizona, KJ has been disappointing and over the last two seasons, he has turned into a utility player. His career .760 OPS only looks that good because of a .795 OPS while in Atlanta.

OF Antoan Richardson (AAA) - Drafted four times before he finally signed a contract, Richardson joined the Braves after the Giants cut him during 2009. He spent 2010 and 2011 with the Braves, mostly in the minors with Mississippi. He did make it to the majors for his speed during September of 2011, appearing in nine games and getting four trips to the plate. He is currently 2-for-4 in his career with a stolen base. He is posting career-norms for Scranton/Wilkes Barre this season which means a high OBP and stolen bases and not a lot else.

Tampa Bay
SS Yunel Escobar - Kelly Johnson's former double-play partner in both Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Escobar has found a home in Tampa Bay to go along with a four-year contract. He spent parts of four seasons in Atlanta, impressing the Braves with his offensive skills and defense while frustrating them with his attitude. After an .801 OPS in his first three seasons, Esco has only once posted an OPS over .700. Still valuable because of plus-plus defense, Esco remains frustrating for his team and a pest for opposing teams.

3B Wilson Betemit (AAA) - Once one of the game's top prospects, Betemit is back in the minors this season for Durham. While he's among the league leaders in homers, Betemit's other numbers are meh at best. If he gets to the majors with the Rays, it will be his eighth different major league team. While he has been productive at times in the majors, it's a far cry from the expectations Betemit had when he originally reached the majors as a 19 year-old in 2001.

Toronto
P Todd Redmond - After spending over four years in the Braves organization following a trade from the Pirates, Redmond was traded to the Reds for Paul Janish in the summer of 2012 and finally pitched in the majors with the Reds. He has spent the last two seasons with the Blue Jays, posting average numbers both as a starter and reliever.

OF Melky Cabrera - Even though he spent just one season in Atlanta, Melky reached Keith Lockhart-like disdain while posting a miserable .671 OPS. He would produce well in KC the following year and had an All-Star campaign working in 2012 with the Giants before being busted for steroids. After an ugly 2013 in Toronto, Cabrera has rebounded well. Still a douchebag.

3B Juan Francisco - Old Fat Juan belted 14 homers in 128 games with the Braves, often in part-time action, before being unleashed on the Brewers. His power played well there, but he quickly wore out his welcome. Amazingly, he has been explosive with the Jays, OPSing over .900 with nine homers in around 120 PA and hasn't shown signs of slowing while taking over the everyday job at third.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

The Most Recent Big Four in Atlanta

In baseball, you just never know...

During the offseason of 2011-12, the Atlanta Braves were faced with some considerable questions. The Braves had finished 2011, their first season under Fredi Gonzalez, by collapsing down the stretch and missing the playoffs. Changes were expected to be made. Alex Gonzalez was gone at shortstop, the trio of Jair Jurrjens, Brandon Beachy, and Tommy Hanson was either hurt or coming off injury, and the bullpen faltered down the stretch as the O'Ventbrel monster was overused.  Faced with the option of trying to topple the Phillies and/or beat an improving Nationals club in 2012, the Braves knew they needed to upgrade to compete.

However, the Braves were unwilling to break up their Big Four of young pitching. Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran were young righties signed on the international market who exploded through the minor league system. Teheran was considered the better prospect, Delgado the more polished one. There was also Arodys Vizcaino, a native of the Dominican Republic, who the Braves had picked up two years previous in the Javier Vazquez trade. Finally, there was left-hander Mike Minor. He lacked the ridiculous movement of the other three, but was the surest bet of the four. The Vanderbilt product was drafted, partly, because of his high floor.

By the end of 2011, all four had made it to the majors, though Minor was the only one who established himself in the rotation at all. Minor posted a 3.39 FIP in 82.2 ING for the 2011 Braves, though his 1.49 WHIP was ugly and entirely built on too many hits given up. Delgado had started seven games and while his WHIP was much better (1.23), he was fortunate. He walked 14 compared to 18 strikeouts and his BABIP was low...probably too low. Vizcaino, the youngest of the four, was employed as a reliever and appeared in 17 games with 17 K's in 17.1 ING. Oh, sure, he also walked nine and uncorked 5 wild pitches, but the 20 year-old was already looking like a nasty option out of the pen. Teheran had filled in when called upon, starting three games and appearing in five games overall, but was overmatched (5.87 FIP, 1.48) and barring a ridiculous spring, he was ticketed for a return trip to Gwinnett.

The Braves could have easily packaged one or more of these pitchers in a deal and entered the trade market where teams pay well in talent for young, projectionable starting pitchers. With that kind of alluring trade bait, the Braves likely received many calls during the winter as teams asked how available Minor was or maybe who the Braves were more willing to part with, Teheran or Delgado? Frank Wren held tough, refusing to trade any of the four. On the contrary, he made it easier for them to make an impact by paying Derek Lowe $10M to play for the Indians. At the end of spring training in 2012, the Braves did send a pitcher packing, but it was J.J. Hoover, part of a deep second-tier that produced other trade ammunition like Brett Oberholtzer.

However, it became clear the Braves couldn't sit on the four indefinitely and it was unlikely all four would be productive Braves so decisions had to make. But as much as they shined in 2011, the four suffered setbacks in 2012. Vizcaino hurt himself in spring and would miss 2012. Delgado made 17 starts that were much uglier than his 2011 run, though his FIP liked him more. He also struggled in the minors with a 1.53 WHIP. Teheran struggled in AAA as the Braves tweaked his delivery. The only saving grace, and it took a marvelous second half to get to it, was Minor. After a 5.97 ERA in the first half of 2012 with a 1.42 WHIP, Minor was on fire in the second half, posting a 2.16 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP while helping to lead the Braves, with Kris Medlen's ridiculous final two month run, to the postseason.

But before they got there, the Braves decided who was the keepers and who they could afford to send packing. Vizcaino was up first, packaged with another minor league reliever to the Cubs for Reed Johnson, Paul Maholm, and financial assistance. The Braves seemed convinced that Vizcaino, while he may have the best stuff of the four, was the least likely to stay healthy and subsequently, the most likely to max out as a reliever. It was the kind of decision that can haunt a GM, even if both Johnson and Maholm were productive major league players. Making a deadline deal that surrenders a great arm can kill your legacy. Just as the Tigers and their lost opportunity with John Smoltz.

But before that deal actually happened, there was the deal that didn't happen, also with the Cubs. A week before the deadline, the Braves were ready to part with Delgado to acquire Ryan Dempster. A pending free agent, Dempster chose to invoke his no-trade clause. The Braves were amazed as the Cubs were spiraling into yet another losing season and Dempster, who had one awful postseason start on his resume, seemed content to spend the year enjoying the loses. He ultimately wasn't and headed to Texas instead on the same day the Braves acquired Maholm and Johnson and sucked it up for the Rangers down the stretch.

Still, the writing was on the wall for Delgado. The Braves were willing to trade him, but not Teheran and definitely not Minor. After the season, the Braves used Delgado as a key figure in the blockbuster trade that brought Justin Upton and Chris Johnson to the Braves. This time, the Braves benefitted after Upton used his no-trade clause to block a different trade to the Mariners.

Since the decision to keep half of the big four prospects, the Braves have seen Teheran flourish into the ace they believed he could be. Meanwhile, Minor is steady and productive, a perfect compliment to the ability and stuff Teheran possesses. At the same time, the Braves have seen the two they have surrendered fail to establish themselves. In Vizcaino's case, it has been injuries holding him back. After his second Tommy John surgery in March of 2012, Vizcaino missed all of 2013 after needing a follow-up procedure. He appeared in his first game since September 27th, 2011 last April 3rd and for a month, owned the Florida State League, a high-A league. He struck out ten over nine innings, all as a reliever. Since then, he tossed 7.1 ING for Tennessee, the Cubs' AA squad. Vizcaino is on the 40-man roster for the Cubs and can run it up to 100 mph. He might make it back to the big leagues this summer if he stays productive and shows that he's capable of pitching on back-to-back nights, something he has yet to be asked to do.

While Vizcaino has struggled to stay healthy, Delgado has simply struggled. After failing to make the Diamondbacks out of camp in 2013, Delgado struggled in Reno, though most pitchers hate the Pacific Coast League. However, Delgado was especially bad because Delgado, for all of his poise and ability, has never been able to refine the flaws to his game. Notably, too many homers, too many walks, too few groundballs. After the trade, many articles referred to Delgado as a groundball pitcher and while he gets his fair share, his problem was that he lacked a third pitch breaking ball. He relied far too much on a 93-95 mph fastball with a plus-changeup. As a starter, he was asking for trouble.

Still, despite 24 homers in 116.1 ING last year with Arizona, he posted a workable 4.26 ERA and a pinpoint 1.8 BB/9. At least, that was the impression from looking at his numbers. He even tossed a three-hit shutout against the Padres. However, after that shutout which lowered his ERA to 2.85, Delgado got roughed up over the last two months to the tune of a 5.46 ERA and 17 homers in 62.2 ING. The book was out on him. Those struggles have continued this season. Out of options, Delgado, coming into Wednesday, had appeared in 15 games with 2 starts and posted a 6.85 ERA. His FIP (3.98) likes him more than his ERA right now, but he has walked a lot of batters (15 in 23.2 ING).

You take chances in trades and you never know which trade will work out, both for the production you receive and the performance of the player you traded. So far, and it's early, of the Big Four, the two the Braves kept have been tremendous and two they surrendered have been unproductive. Things can change and Vizcaino is slowly working his way back while Delgado won't be 25 until next February, but considering the players the Braves brought in by trading those two, Atlanta and its front office has to feel good.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Has anyone used the "Braves offense is offensive" tagline yet?

The Braves can't hit. We all know it, we've all seen it, and we are all pissed off about it. Last season, the Braves finished fourth in the National League in runs scored. This season, they are just two runs scored ahead of the Padres for next to last. And they trail 13th in RS by nearly 20 runs.

So, they aren't scoring.

But why?  Well, there is only a couple of changes from last year's roster. Yeah, Evan Gattis replaced Brian McCann, but the rest of the starting lineup is the same. Ryan Doumit and Tyler Pastornicky are on the bench and Reed Johnson and Juan Francisco/Elliot Johnson are gone, but idealy, they would seem like an improvement.

Just what in the hell is the problem?  Individually, very few players are hitting better than they did last season. As bad as Dan Uggla was last season, he has reached new levels of suck. So much suck that he's sitting on the bench, getting splinters in his ass. Andrelton Simmons still ain't really hitting that well, but at least he's not leading off. Chris Johnson has started to hit, but his production is down. And Jason Heyward leads the team in walks and that's about the only positive you can throw at him when he has a bat in his hands. B.J. Upton is actually better. Somewhat. To a small extent.

On the bench, Ramiro Pena's surprising 2013 has disappeared. Gerald Laird did his best David Ross last season and has reverted back to Gerald Laird. Jordan Schafer is awful. Holy hell, the Braves are starting Pastornicky? PASTORNICKY?

All of these numbers are reflected in falls in team ratio stats. Using fangraphs and their MLB-standing stats, the following table should help reinforce where the Braves have sucked.

Stat 2013 Rank 2014 Rank
BB% 8.8% 6th 7.2% 22nd
K% 22.6% 3rd 24.3% 1st
ISO .153 7th .142 14th
BABIP .300 12th .284 26th
Swing% 47.4% 9th 49.2% 4th
Zone% 44.4% 21st 48.6% 4th

Recently, Mark Bowman also looked at ratio stats and played them up, but a lot of the numbers found with fangraphs' plate discipline section is not that different compared to last year's stats and where the Braves finished last season.  For instance, Bowman writes that "Atlanta has swung as frequently (49.4 percent of the pitches they've seen) as any NL club and made contact with its swings less frequently (75.1 percent) than any other big league club."  I didn't include Contact% in my table, but last season, a year where the Braves offense was again very productive, they made contact on just 76% of their swings, second worst in the bigs. So, that probably isn't a big reason for their 2014 struggles.

However, I believe that Zone% number is the most important. Productive batters are given less pitches in the zone so it's difficult to show whether this is a chicken or the egg proposition, but because the Braves aren't making good contact, they get more and more pitches to swing at in the zone. Pitches Heyward should bash. Pitches Johnson should drive to the gap. Pitches Simmons, by the law of averages, should deposit in the left-field bleachers.

Instead, they become flyouts. Groundouts. And yes, strikeouts.

What's the solution? The Braves have the players and they need to simply produce. If that's through some altered stances or philosophy, that's fine, but to get back to what the Braves do well (hit homers and walk), they need to force pitchers to have to treat them with respect and throw pitches outside of the zone instead of hammering the zone, knowing they will get outs. They need runners on base to force the pitcher to treat hitters carefully.

Sadly, the 8th-place hitting pitcher probably isn't the answer. But hell, it's something, I guess.

As an aside, I am done for the semester with my school-work so I'm hoping to blog more over the summer. Actually have a few ideas on what to use. Plus, this weekend, I plan to start the Random Prospect of the Week series back up. Thanks for reading!

Monday, February 17, 2014

A Look Back: 2008 Draft

Before my second daughter's birth, I began a series that analyzed the impact, or lack thereof, of the recent amateur draft classes for the Atlanta Braves organization.  Beginning with the 2012 draft, I followed the outcomes of four different years.  If you would like to look back at those articles, you can do so by clicking one of the following links:  2012, 2011, 2010, and 2009.

Today, let's continue it with the fifth addition to the club, the 2008 draft.  While the first two picks petered out as busts, the draft did give the Braves a few major league talents, including the best closer in baseball.  The Braves did not have a first round pick that season, losing it as compensation for signing Tom Glavine from the Mets.  Um, a waste.  The Mets took current first baseman Ike Davis with the pick.  Unknown who the Braves would have targetted with the 18th overall selection, but Andrew Cashner was picked next.  That would have been a nice addition.

The Braves did get a supplemental pick after the Royals signed left-hander Ron Mahay.  So, the first pick could technically be added to the Mark Teixeira deal.  Unfortunately, it does not help that terrible deal's outcome.  The Braves also got an additional second round pick after failing to sign Josh Fields the previous year.  Like previous editions, I'll go over the top ten rounds and add any interesting picks.

Keep this in mind.  Of the 51 players selected in 2008, only two remain with the Braves organization.  

1. Brett DeVall, LHP, Niceville High School (Niceville, FL)

It was supposed to be a good fit.  Crafty left-hander with surprising velocity from the southeast goes to the Braves.  This is how successful pairings begin.  However, DeVall would only appear in 33 games with the organization before being cut before the beginning of the 2011 season.  What went wrong?

Injuries definitely played a role.  He made just 10 starts with Rome in 2009 before his season ended in June.  The following year, his final with the organization, he got a late start to the year and made only 19 starts with pretty forgetful numbers.  But it was more than just injuries from what I read.  He showed up overweight and apparently refused to undergo Tommy John surgery even after being advised by Dr. James Andrews that he needed it.  And according to his twitter account, he's a douchenozzle.  Last October 26th, he tweeted, "not many more things in baseball i enjoy more then asian relievers shitting the bed."  Wow, really?  Suffice it to say, since the Braves cut him, his phone hasn't been ringing off the hook.

2. Tyler Stovall, LHP, Hokes Bluff High School (Gadsden, AL)

Back-to-back high school lefties to open the draft, back-to-back busts.  Stovall could run it up to the low 90's with a good curveball and again, it looked like a good fit.  Stovall was a two-sport star signed on to play baseball at Auburn when he signed with the Braves.  However, his production was minimal and he was switched to the bullpen, which is hardly a good sign for a second rounder out of high school.  The Braves cut Stovall after the 2011 season and after a stop (but no appearances) with the Royals and a year in independent ball, where he didn't fair too well, Stovall was out of baseball.  But the story doesn't end there.  Like 2011 8th rounder Kurt Fleming, Stovall has found second life in the SEC as a football player as a walk-on backup punter and holder for the Auburn Tigers.  Bonus...as part of his original contract with the Braves, Atlanta is on the hook for 8 semesters.  Shrewd.

2.  Zeke Spruill, RHP, Kell High School (Marietta, GA)

While the first two picks of 2008 washed out, Spruill has persevered, even as the Braves cut bait with the former Georgia product.  Spruill continues the string of crafty guys former scouting director Roy Clark loved to grab early and often.  Only thing about craftiness is that it's not very exciting and rarely do the players ever contribute in a meaningful way in the majors.  Spruill climbed the ladder steadily, though he was never a big prospect.  Last offseason, he was added to the Justin Upton trade and appeared in six games with the Diamondbacks last year, including two starts.  He also faced the Braves last June 28th out of the pen and gave up an RBI single to Reed Johnson.

3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Wallace State Community College

Oh, you've heard of him?  The best reliever in the game has always been a reliever.  Atlanta originally took him in the 33rd round in 2008, but could not sign the Lee High School alum.  Fortunately, they got a second chance and got the young reliever and it did not take long for Kimbrel to rocket up the charts.  In 151 minor league innings, he struck out 242.  He had one potential problem to a successful career in the majors and that was his control.  He walked nearly 6 per nine innings during his minor league career, but it all clicked for him in 2011 as he took home the Rookie of the Year award and sported a 3.7 BB/9 rate.

4. Braeden Schlehuber, C, College of Southern Nevada

Breaden was the first Random Prospect of the Day back in June of 2012.  Unfortunately, he received zero boost from the Walk-Off Walk bump and has been classified as an organizational catcher since signing.  He's currently in camp as a non-roster invitee, but even if Gerald Laird wasn't with the Braves, Schlehuber was headed back to the minors regardless of what he does this spring.  Since signing, he has hit .224 with a .622 OPS and has rarely been a team's primary catcher.  Over the last three seasons, he has played with both Lynchburg and Mississippi.  Chances are he'll be back in Mississippi.

5. Jacob Thompson, RHP, University of Virginia

What was with Roy Clark's obsession with soft-tossing guys?  Add Thompson to the crowd and also add him to the list of former Braves.  Thompson was never that good, but he steadily climbed the ladder to appear with the Gwinnett Braves in 2011.  The results were not that good and Thompson surprisingly retired at age-24, a day after giving up seven runs in 2.1 ING to Toledo on May 14th.  I saw Thompson pitch for Myrtle Beach against the then-Pirates-affiliated Lynchburg Hillcats and he looked every bit of a low-ceiling guy.

6. Adam Milligan, OF, Walters State Community College

Milligan was drafted three times by the Braves before the native of Tennessee finally signed.  The Braves hoped that left-handed hitting imposing figure would add some more raw power.  However, Milligan could never stay healthy despite some relatively solid numbers along the way.  He struggled in 2012 with Mississippi and was banished to Lynchburg, where he never could turn it on and before last season, the Braves parted ways with Milligan.  A shame he was never able to stay healthy.

7. Paul Clemens, RHP, Louisburg College

One of the most ridiculous numbers last season came from Clemens, who split time with Oklahoma City and Houston.  With the Astros, he gave up 16 HR in 73.1 ING.  To put that into different terms, for every nine innings Clemens could throw, he would give up 2 homers.  That ratio tied him with Joe Blanton and tying Blanton with anything is a bad sign.  Clemens has been with the Astros since the trading deadline in 2011 when the Braves acquired Michael Bourn.  That was also his first year as a full-time starter after splitting time between starting and relieving before that.  He's never been better than decent.

8. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP, Seminole Community College

Also going to the Astros in the Bourn trade was Oberholtzer, a stocky left-hander who is, as the theme goes, crafty.  Oberholtzer was a fast-riser and was already in AA-Mississippi and holding his own at the time of the trade.  He made it to the majors last season and looked like he belonged.  He picked up a pair of complete games, including a four-hitter against the Mariners last September 1st.  Oberholtzer could be a late bloomer, but I doubt he's much more than a bottom-of-the-rotation cog.

9. Kyle Farrell, RHP, Western Nevada College

139 innings.  That's all the Braves needed to see from Farrell to grow disinterested with keeping the 6'4" righty in the system past 2010.  He never made it out of rookie ball and hasn't played organized ball since.

10. J.J. Hoover, RHP, Calhoun Community College

Blessed with a heavy fastball, Hoover displayed great strikeout numbers as he climbed the minor league ladder, rarely staying in one place for very long.  Hoover was eventually transitioned to the bullpen in 2011 and looked like he could be a sleeper for the 2012 roster, but instead of making the roster, he was dealt to the Reds for Juan Francisco.  It didn't take him long to get to the majors from there and he has been a steady reliever in the pen for the Reds.

Other interesting picks...

-Former Georgia Tech pitcher and 17th rounder pitcher Mark Pope didn't sign with the Braves and was eventually drafted again by the Padres, where he played for two seasons before getting cut.  The Braves tried their luck with Pope and he opened 2013 with the Hillcats, but was released a month later.

-A pair of picks were used on guys who didn't sign and eventually were drafted by the Nationals. 16th rounder OF Billy Burns and 27th rounder infielder Anthony Rendon.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Remembering Fat Juan

As Juan Francisco hit two homers off Matt Garza Wednesday, a few Braves fans asked both what the hell the Braves got for the power hitter and why did they give up on a guy with such strength?  Surely, the Braves could find a way to utilize Fat Juan in some way, right?

Well, the Braves did give up on him.  That much is without a doubt.  In need of a bullpen arm, the Braves designated Francisco for assignment on May 30th to allow them to call up Alex Wood.  There was little chance Francisco would go unclaimed and less of a chance of him accepting a demotion to the minors so the Braves found a taker in the Milwaukee Brewers, getting 25 year-old lefty Thomas Keeling in return.

Keeling has been pitching at Mississippi since the trade and in 21.1 innings, he has walked 22.  Ugly.  He's never been this bad control-wise and has shown a strikeout arm from time-to-time, though not since the trade.  It's a little odd how bad he's pitched since the trade.  He was never a great arm, but he's been just awful now.

But Atlanta wasn't likely to get much for Francisco.  In 128 games with the Braves, Francisco had struck out 113 times in 320 PA while slashing .237/.281/.420.  Clearly, the dude could hit the ball a long way.  Most of his highlights with Atlanta occurred in 2012.  Like many young players, Francisco showed more ability as a starter than as a backup.  In 42 starts last season, Francisco slashed .262/.293/.497 with 8 of his 9 homeruns.  As is typical with most left-handed sluggers from the minors that can't settle into a regular spot, Francisco was worthless against lefties.  Last year, he OPS'd .468, exactly 300 points less than his OPS against righties.

The one thing that can't be said is that Francisco didn't have a shot in 2013.  Chris Johnson had been acquired, but it seemed like he was going to be a platoon partner for Francisco, not the guy who would start over Francisco.  However, Francisco failed to distance himself from Johnson during the spring.  He had a decent April, but anyone would have a decent April when your BABIP is .417.  He continued to get fairly regular playing time in May, likely to showcase him, and Fat Juan failed miserably, OPSing .479.  Needing bullpen help and with a glut of capable infielders available, Atlanta had to send Francisco packing.

Now, fans look at his 12 homeruns since the trade (and 17 overall), plus an .865 OPS and wonder why the Braves gave up or didn't get enough in a trade.  He's still the same guy.  Sometimes, his power numbers explode, as they have over the last 20 or so games, and other times, he looks fairly miserable, especially when given at-bats against lefties.  Thursday night, he went 0-for-3 against Tony Cingrani and Manny Parra.  He struck out each time.

He continues to be a horrendous defender, something Braves fans saw a lot of last year.  Brewers fans get to endure Francisco learning-on-the-job at first.  -8.0 UZR with a -3 DRS.  Awful.

But really, that's all numbers.  Francisco might hit a good deal of homers and be a platoon option for a team,  but that team wasn't going to be in Atlanta.  He also showed, to this point, an inability to come off the bench and produce.  That in itself is not worrisome because young players often struggle as bench help and that's why guys like Reed Johnson and Ramiro Pena are so valuable.  If Francisco wasn't going to start and also not produce high numbers to improve his trade value, how in the world were the Braves going to get much in a trade for him?

Francisco's future in Atlanta had a wall that he couldn't throw his fat ass over.  Once Johnson started his amazing run this season, Francisco had to go.  If he continues to produce in Milwaukee, all the better for him.  Regardless, the Braves were still winners if only because it brought Wood to the majors.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

While one-half of the season would truly be 81 games, Atlanta enters the break at 95 games. 54 times, the Braves were victors while 41 times saw the final out recorded with the Braves behind.  There have been eleven shutouts by teams facing the Braves and seven times, Atlanta shut out the opponents.  Eleven different times, the score was tied after nine innings, forcing the Braves into overtime where they won seven games.  Fourteen different times, the Atlanta Braves faced a member from the AL and they have won as many games as they lost.  In 28% of the games, or 27 of 95 games, the Braves were involved in what baseball-reference calls a blowout, a game were the difference was five-runs.  The Braves are 18-9 in those games.

They finished the half with winning records against 10 of the 17 teams they have faced with a losing record against just four of those teams.  They won ten straight once this season and eight straight another time.  Twice, they have lost four straight.  Since the sixth game of the year, the Braves have led the division by themselves for every single day.  Sometimes, that lead reached 7.5 games.

As the Braves enter the break, it is only appropriate to take a look back at the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Games of the first half.  Because I love the good news last, let's start with the Ugly.

The Ugly Game
Also: April 24 at Colorado, June 18 vs. New York (Game Two)

July 12th, vs. Cincinnati

On the face of it, losing 4-2 to a good Reds squad is hardly that ugly, but the events of the game were quite strange.  On the mound, Kris Medlen failed miserably to locate and was charged with four runs in four innings.  It could have been worse if Alex Wood had not done the job he did by stranding two of the three baserunners he inherited.  The Braves began the game after losing Jason Heyward the previous day to a hamstring injury.  During the game, news broke that Jordan Schafer, who had been on the DL for an ankle issue, would miss even more time because he actually had a stress fracture.  And then, there was the game.  With two outs and the score 2-0 in a rough first inning, Medlen struggled to put away Todd Frazier.  On the 8th pitch of the at-bat, Frazier hit a ball that was slicing toward right-center and falling rapidly.  B.J. Upton charged toward the ball, banging his knee in the turf and his other knee on the ball that he failed to catch.  Frazier ended up on third on a "triple" and the Braves outfield shifted around with Reed Johnson moving from right-to-center and Justin Upton moving from left-to-right.  For the first time since getting called up, Joey Terdoslavich grabbed his glove for game action and got the call in left.  Down 4-0 in the seventh, B.J.'s younger brother opened the inning with a groundout and he was limping after the play.  A calf strain ended his day and the outfield that the Braves finished the game with was Terdo in left, Tyler Pastornicky in center, and Johnson in right.

The Bad Game
Also: May 7 at Cincinnati

April 26th, at Detroit

Atlanta entered Detroit on a long road trip that saw them drop four-of-seven already.  Anibal Sanchez faced Paul Maholm to open things and things got nutty real quick.  After two K's in the first, Sanchez struck out Freddie Freeman to open the second.  After Chris Johnson doubled, Evan Gattis K'd.  Juan Francisco would follow a B.J. Upton walk with a strikeout.  The Braves wouldn't get another baserunner to second until Gattis's two-out double in the seventh.  Meanwhile, Maholm gave up four hits, uncorked a wild pitch, and got a error from Justin Upton in a four-run third.  Things got worse in the fourth.  Three runs scored and a runner was on base when Maholm's day finally ended with two outs in the fourth.  Anthony Varvaro provided little help, walking a batter before Matt Tuiasosopo hit a soul-crushing three-run homer.  Not that Sanchez was giving the Braves much of a chance to come back.  Dan Uggla struck out four times in four trips to the plate.  Freeman did the same.  Francisco picked up a hat trick while seeing only 13 pitches in 3 plate appearances.  All in al, Sanchez K'd 17 in eight innings and the Braves fell 10-0.

The Good Game
Also: April 6 vs. Chicago Cubs, April 12 at Washington, July 8th at Miami

June 5th, at Pittsburgh

Some good options for this, but few compared to the day that Julio Teheran seemed to arrive. He retired the first eleven he faced until Andrew McCutchen walked.  He would walk another batter and even hit a pair of Pirates.  Meanwhile, Atlanta took an early lead when a Chris Johnson groundout scored Andrelton Simmons in the first.  In the sixth, Evan Gattis and Gerald Laird went back-to-back to make it 3-0.  The Braves manufactured a pair of runs in the seventh to lead it by five.  Almost forgotten, Teheran was throwing inning-after-inning with no Pirate reaching on a hit.  Unfortunately, that changed when Brandon Inge singled with two outs in the 8th.  Teheran was lifted before the ninth after a 107 tremendous pitches with eleven K's.  David Carpenter finished as the Braves won 5-0.

Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Best (and Worst) of June

Hey, cool, I made it a month.  The Braves finished off a 13-12 June with a 7-5 victory against the Nationals in the oven known as Turner Field today.  Despite the win over the revered Stephen Strasburg, Atlanta remains one of baseball's disappointing clubs.  After opening the season with four consecutive loses, the Braves righted the ship and were 14-8 after 22 games, but since April 29th, Atlanta is a weak 27-28.  June started with a 6-1 record, but they only were able to win seven of their remaining 18 games of the month.

Regardless, with the month over, it's time to look at who made the best of a mediocre month and who helped drag Atlanta down.

Top Rookie of the Month - Andrelton Simmons - Simmons arrived on June 1st after a superb run in Mississippi to replace the struggling Tyler Pastornicky and has only been awesome.  He's hit .333 this month with an RBI today, Simmons actually drove in the second most runs this month with 14.  His ISO has been around .200 for the month with six doubles, a triple, and three homers.  Oh, and by the way, he's damn awesome defensively.  While he has made a couple of careless mistakes, he posted a 5.9 UZR.  Now, obviously, defensive statistics lose whatever value they may have in a shortened sample size, but if you have watched even a couple of Braves' games this month, you notice how much of a lift his glove, range, and arm have provided Atlanta so far.  In addition, when you compare him to Pastornicky (-12.3 UZR, still worst in among MLB shortstops), what Simmons has provided is even more notable.

Worst Pitcher of the Month - Mike Minor - It's becoming a recurring theme every time the lefty pitches.  While two of the four runs charged to him today scored after he left the game, Minor continues to struggle to reach the potential that made him the seventh overall selection a few years ago.  I do think that Minor, at times, is a victim of bad luck and sometimes, gets killed by his manager's quick hook.  But the results simply haven't been there for Minor.  His ERA actually was sitting under 4.00 for the month coming in today's game, but his FIP (5.84) and xFIP (5.03) showed a clearer sign of how he was performing.  For a guy who essentially made it clear that the Braves should pitch him or trade him, you'd like to see more than a HR/9 rate hovering around 2.0 and a walk rate climbing toward 4.0 per nine.  This second half could go a long way to help the Braves decide if Minor is closer to the prospect they thought they were drafting or closer to Kyle Davies and Jo-Jo Reyes.

Others - Tommy Hanson, Eric O'Flaherty

Worst Position Player of the Month - Brian McCann - At a certain point, McCann has to really start to put it together, right?  After an 0-for-4 today, McCann hit a miserable .193 for the month with an ISO nearly .100.  There was a brief point there when we thought McCann was finally coming out of season-long slump when he strung together three consecutive two-hit games with a pair of homers June 12-15th, but since that day, McCann is 7 of 49.  When people start asking if McCann is a player the Braves should extend, they'd like to see some performance.  McCann has been a weak point for this offense almost all season, but eventually he has to start putting it together.  His .297 BABIP will get closer to his career .357.  I hope.

Others - Matt Diaz, Eric Hinske

Best Pitcher of the Month - Craig Kimbrel - Today, Kimbrel ended his month with a pair of nasty sliders to put away a couple of Nationals hitters.  If you ever want a picture on domination, Kimbrel provided it in June.  For the month, he faced 36 batters.  THREE of them reached base.  One of them homered, another singled and stole two bases, and the other was wiped out on a double play.  20 of the 36 struck out.  Oh, and he nailed down all eight save attempts.  Suffice it to say, he was pretty damn awesome.

Others - Tim Hudson

Best Position Player of the Month - Jason Heyward - This was oddly a tougher choice than I assumed it would be.  With the month that Andrelton Simmons had, he could easily have taken this from him, but you cannot deny what Heyward did in June.  Heyward hit nearly .350 with a slugging percentage approaching .700.  He's earned a spot in the top three in the lineup and it seems unlikely that Heyward won't stay there if he continues to come close to the month he had in June.

Others - Andrelton Simmons, Michael Bourn

A few fun monthly notes...
  • Michael Bourn stole his 7th and 8th bases of the month...four more than the rest of the team. 
  • Chad Durbin appeared in 15 of 25 games in June.  
  • The only bench player who had a remotely good month (and he had a great one) was David Ross who went 9 for 23.  Combined, the usual bench like Eric Hinske, Jack Wilson, Juan Francisco, and Matt Diaz went 17 for 100.