Monday Roundup: Bad Innings Lead to Losing Streak

Spring training results are more about individual player performances, especially those competing for a job, than they are win-loss records. This week, the Braves had some big individual performances, but a few players have truly put themselves on the outside looking in after some bad outings. Here's your Monday Roundup for the second week of spring training games.

Chaz Roe struggled against the Tigers / Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

TIGERS 10, Braves 7

Chaz Roe's spring debut was about as awful as he could have hoped. He faced six batters and all of them reached base. Jason Hursh entered and was able to get out of the inning, but when you add the three runs he surrendered to the five runs Roe gave up, the Tigers had turned a 6-2 deficit into a 10-6 lead. R.A. Dickey got the start and surrendered two runs, one of them earned. Arodys Vizcaino also got into action with a 2-K perfect frame. The star pitcher of the day, though, was Max Fried. Facing Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton, Fried worked a perfect inning with a strikeout of Upton - who the Braves traded in the deal that brought Fried to the Braves. At the plate, Micah Johnson started in right field and went 1-for-3 with 2 BB. Dansby Swanson and Adonis Garcia each had three-hit games.

Who helped himself the most? Johnson
Who hurt himself the most? Roe

BRAVES 2, Cardinals 0

Mike Foltynewicz had a fun first inning. He gave up two hits and walked a batter, yet faced the minimum after two pickoffs yielded three outs. Josh Collmenter tossed two scoreless to match Folty's two scoreless innings and the veteran righty got the win after Brandon Phillips doubled in a pair in the fourth. That was all the Braves needed. After Collmenter left,  Jim Johnson entered and pitched a quiet inning. Lucas Sims (2 ING) and Patrick Weigel (1 ING) kept the Cards at bay before Mauricio Cabrera's 100 mph heat finished the game in the ninth. Freddie Freeman had half of the Braves' four hits with Ender Inciarte adding a single.

Who helped himself the most? Collmenter
Who hurt himself the most? Rio Ruiz (0-for-3, K)

By: Keith Allison via Flickr (CC BY-SA 4.0)

YANKEES 8, Braves 7

The kids led a furious rally as the Braves scored seven runs in the 7th and 8th innings to make a blowout much closer, but Atlanta still came up short in their first night game of the spring. Jaime Garcia surrendered a run in his Braves debu and Matt Wisler struggled tremendously in his two-inning stint that followed. After a quiet 2-K frame from Ian Krol, the Yankees teed off on Sean Newcomb, who couldn't locate his pitches with any authority. The Braves' rally began with the aid of David Freitas and Balbino Fuenmayor, who each had singles with one out in the 7th. After an error led to a run, Johan Camargo hit a three-run bomb. Micah Johnson, who started in right field and also played center, followed Camargo's moonshot with a homer of his own. Atlanta's power showed up again in the 8th when Adam Walker hit a two-run opposite-field homer. Despite Luke Jackson and Eric O'Flaherty keeping the game close after Newcomb's disaster, Atlanta couldn't finish the comeback. Of particular interest was Jace Peterson starting at shortstop. A former minor league shortstop, Peterson might be counted on to fill in from time-to-time if the Braves decline to keep Chase D'Arnaud. Sadly, the Braves received some bad news as Dustin Peterson broke his a bone in his left hand on a check swing during the game and will miss at least two months.

Who helped himself the most? Johnson
Who hurt himself the most? Wisler

CARDINALS 9, Braves 4

John Danks has not had a good spring so far. After relieving Bartolo Colon with a 3-2 lead in the fourth, Danks gave up three runs in two innings to take the loss. Blaine Boyer, who is also trying to make the roster after signing a minor league deal, gave up a three-run homer in his only inning of work. Jose Ramirez also gave up a homer in the 8th. The only real positive sign was Paco Rodriguez, who pitched a perfect 7th with a strikeout. It was his first outing since 2015. The Braves had jumped out to a 3-0 lead after Dansby Swanson, who led off, homered to begin the game. Later in the inning, Adam "Walk-Off" Walker hit his second two-run homer in as many games. Ronald Acuna, who started in center, went 3-for-4 with two doubles, including one that plated the Braves' fourth run. Rio Ruiz got the DH assignment and made the most of it with three hits and a walk.

Who helped himself the most? Ruiz
Who hurt himself the most? Boyer

Red Sox 9, BRAVES 1

Sam Freeman became the latest minor league free agent to have an epic fail of an inning. After Julio Teheran pitched three masterful innings, the lefty Freeman came in to pitch the fourth. He faced seven batters and they all reached base. When the disaster was over, Freeman had given up six runs. The Sox kept scoring, getting single runs off Joel De La Cruz, Aroyds Vizcaino, and Jason Hursh to increase their lead. Atlanta's offense had few answers for the Red Sox pitching. Emilio Bonifacio, who entered for Ender Inciarte, singled and homered to lead the Braves' offense.

Who helped himself the most? Bonifacio
Who hurt himself the most? S. Freeman

Aaron Blair left his start early with an injury /
Editosaurus (Own work) , via Wikimedia Commons

PHILLIES 7, Braves 4 (SS)

Aaron Blair's distant bid to snag a rotation spot wasn't helped by an early exit against the Phillies. Facing Cesar Hernandez to open the bottom of the first, Blair took a hard shot off his non-throwing hand and was immediately lifted. Josh Collmenter was scheduled to pitch next and threw three innings to get the Braves back on schedule. He allowed Hernandez to score, but nothing else. Jesse Biddle took a big step in his return after missing all of 2016 by throwing a scoreless frame against his former mates with a walk and 2 K's. The Braves were leading 4-1 in the 7th when the Phillies exploded all over the duo of Michael Mader and David Hale, who had quietly been signed this winter. For more in-depth analysis on Hale's signing, click here. Back to the game, when the disaster of an inning was over, it was 7-4. Christian Walker hit a homer for the Braves as they managed just four hits.

Who helped himself the most? Collmenter
Who hurt himself the most? Micah Johnson (0-for 3, 2 K)

Marlins 8, BRAVES 6 (SS)

R.A. Dickey was hurt by a Dansby Swanson error and surrendered three unearned runs to go with his two earned runs in his three innings. Ian Krol also gave up a three-run homer as the Braves gave up runs in bunches. Outside of those two, Jim Johnson, Eric O'Flaherty, and Mauricio Cabrera all tossed scoreless innings with Max Fried working two scoreless frames. Swanson did pick up two ribbies and a stolen base. At one point in the game, the Braves had Austin Riley at third and Ronald Acuna and Braxton Davidson flanking Jace Peterson in the outfield. Riley had a pair of hits, including a double, after replacing Adonis Garcia earlier in the game.

Who helped himself the most? O'Flaherty (ING, 2 K)
Who hurt himself the most? Krol

RED SOX 11, Braves 1

For the second time this weekend, the Braves got smacked around by the Red Sox. This time, it would be Patrick Weigel who faced a bunch of batters - six in total - and couldn't retire a single one. All would score. The Red Sox added two more in the long seventh inning off Lucas Sims to turn a 3-1 game into a blowout. Mike Foltynewicz had opened the game with a troublesome first inning, but only gave up one run over three innings. Jose Ramirez worked a quiet inning, which he needed, but Chaz Roe was roughed up again for two runs and now has a 63.00 even ERA. The only other Braves pitcher to work was Blaine Boyer, who pitched a perfect sixth inning. At the plate, Kurt Suzuki singled in Ray-Patrick Didder in the sixth for Atlanta's only run after Didder doubled.

Who helped himself the most? Ramirez
Who hurt himself the most? Roe

Week 2 Record: 1-7
Grapefruit League Record: 2-8, 15th place (last), 5.5 GB

Seven-day Forecast: Idle, @Pirates (ROOT), vs. Phillies, vs. Yankees, vs. Mets, @ Cardinals (FSSE), @Yankees

Monday Roundup: First Two Games in the Book

Not too much to recap this week as we are just two games into the Grapefruit schedule, but here we go.

BRAVES 7, Blue Jays 4

The Braves fell behind 3-0 but stormed back with a half-dozen runs split between the fourth and fifth innings to win this one. A few takeaways from this game include the Braves using what is manager Brian Snitker's hopeful opening day lineup with Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson at the top. They're followed by Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp, and Nick Markakis as the heart of the order. Finally, Brandon Phillips, Adonis Garcia and Tyler Flowers fill out the regular eight. Dustin Peterson had a pair of hits and Emilio Bonifacio, trying to win a spot on the bench, went 2-for-2 with a walk and a double. Bartolo Colon worked around some trouble in the second to go 2 innings with three hits allowed, a run, and a K. John Danks struggled and Blaine Boyer wasn't spot on either, but Mauricio Cabrera, Akeel Morris, and Luke Jackson finished the day with four combined innings, a hit, a walk, and four K's. For Morris and especially Jackson, each good outing will boost their chances to make the roster.

Who helped himself the most? Bonifacio
Who hurt himself the most? Danks

Astros 3, BRAVES 2 

Jose Ramirez has a lively arm, but with so much depth, he'll need to come to camp and impress. Sunday was not his day. He surrendered four hits in 1.2 innings, including a two-run Max Stassi homer that broke a 1-1 tie in the 8th inning. Newly acquired Christian Walker singled in uber-prospect Ronald Acuna in the ninth to cut into the deficit, but Travis Demeritte flew out to end the game. Micah Johnson got the start in center field. He went 0-for-2, but Atlanta continues to look at Johnson as a possible CF backup heading into 2017. Also in the outfield on Sunday was Dustin Peterson, who played right field after replacing Nick Markakis. Since moving away from third base two years ago, Peterson has played almost exclusively in left field outside of four games last year in center field. Increasing his defensive flexibility would help him get to the majors quicker though he did get charged with an error. Julio Teheran started and looked good despite the inconsistent Lance Diaz behind the plate. Aaron Blair struggled with location over his two innings and did give up a run, but also struck out three. Blair's slider, a potential weapon for him that he developed more last year, looked good. Eric O'Flaherty and Sam Freeman each tossed scoreless innings and Adam Kolarek threw 1.1 scoreless. All three lefties are battling to make the team as non-roster guys.

Who helped himself the most? Walker
Who hurt himself the most? Ramirez

Week's Record: 1-1
Grapefruit League Record: 1-1

Seven-day Forecast: @Tigers, vs. Cardinals, @Yankees (TV: YES), @Cardinals, vs. Red Sox, SS @ Phillies (TV: CSN) and SS vs. Marlins, @ Red Sox (TV: NESN).

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Bullpen

Read previous Spring Roster Battles Previews
Fifth Starter

The bullpen was decent enough in the first half for the Atlanta Braves, but in the second half, it took off. As a team, they had a FIP of 3.48 in 264.2 innings in the second half. Luck may have played a role as their xFIP was nearly a run higher. That is a result, I believe, of less-than-stellar walk totals and an unsustainable 6% HR/FB rate. Regardless, it was an improvement and gives the Braves something to spring into next year with.

Atlanta plans on utilizing an eight-man bullpen to open 2017. I believe that is a mistake and ultimately will be a short-lived experiment that will be scrapped when the team needs an extra bat, but let's assume that the bullpen is eight pitchers deep when the season begins. We have a good idea who four of the names will be: Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, and Mauricio Cabrera. Who will be the other half? Let's see who is in the picture.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The Surprise Second-Half Contributors: Jose Ramirez and Chaz Roe

Both are out of options. Both have always interested teams because of their raw talent. Both...sometimes can't find the strike zone. And finally, both had a really nice summer for the Braves bullpen. Will either last into 2017?

Ramirez began the year in the bullpen for the Braves, but after two appearances, he was slipped off the 40-man roster and went down to Gwinnett. He found his way there and was back in the majors for July. At that point, we saw a pitcher who had lowered his arm angle, which appeared to help him get the ball down more. From the point he returned to the Braves to the end of the season, he had a 3.44 FIP to go with a 4.86 xFIP.

Meanwhile, Roe was picked off waivers in early August and joined the Braves immediately. He was superb over 20 games, striking out 33% of the batters he faced while walking just 9%. Like Ramirez, the Braves changed his arm angle slightly and upped his slider usage dramatically to the point that nearly 60% of his pitches were his slider. The results were not only a 64% groundball rate with the Braves, but a 44% outside-the-strike zone swing percentage (PITCHf/x).

Of the two, Roe is more interesting to me. A sinker/slider pitcher, he appeared to land with a perfect pitching coach in Roger McDowell, who preached sinkers as a way to induce weak grounders. Both could be kept to at least start to the season for the same reason Ramirez was kept last year (bubble player, out-of-options).

Finally Healthy? Jesse Biddle and Paco Rodriguez 

A sly pickup by John Coppolella last spring, Biddle is coming back from Tommy John surgery. How far along he is will help decide if he competes for a roster spot this spring. I'm under the impression that he'll head to the minors so the Braves can better monitor his innings, but if that curveball is back, Biddle could be in the mix.

The Braves have been waiting since the southpaw's trade from the Dodgers to add "Paco's Tacos" to the menu. Now, the former 82nd overall pick of the 2012 draft seems ready to finally pitch for the Braves after missing all of the second half of 2015 and 2016 with injuries.

If healthy, there is little question that Paco Rodriguez is a weapon. In 124 games in the majors spanning 85.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, and 2.82 SIERA. Lefties are completely clueless against Rodriguez and have managed a .220 wOBA against him while Rodriguez has sent 35% of them back to the dugout with a K. His numbers against righties aren't nearly as amazing, though he has held his own (.271 wOBA, 3.88 xFIP) to believe he has more potential than just a LOOGY.

Again, we have to preface this with "if healthy," but if he is, the Braves will have a duo of left-handed arms that other teams will envy - and be interested in trading for in Krol and Rodriguez.

The Rule 5 Twins: Armando Rivero and Daniel Winkler

Rivero had a 2.84 FIP and 37.4% strikeout percentage in Triple-A last year. In any other system, he would have received an opportunity to thrive in the majors, but the Cubs were kind of good last year so he was left in the minors. He'll have an opportunity to win a spot on this year's team and I think he has a very good chance of doing just that.

Daniel Winkler seems likely to begin 2017 on the disabled list after his horrific fractured elbow on April 11 last year. At the time, he was off to a wonderful start to his season by striking out half of the eight batters he faced. It looked like the righty with the violent delivery could help the Braves in 2016.

When - and if - he is able to help the Braves this season is a mystery. Even if he's able to, he might not get much of a look considering the depth the Braves have. To keep him, the Braves will have to put him on the 25-man roster for nearly two months once he's healthy to fulfill his Rule 5 requirements or offer him back to the Rockies, who always need pitching.

Chrisjnelson [CC BY 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Taking a Flyer: Blaine Boyer, Sam Freeman, Eric O'Flaherty, Jordan Walden

If you missed the news, Walden's contract was voided this week as we are not seeing the progression in his rehab that had been expected.

Blaine Boyer was added a month ago after failing to secure a major league contract from anyone. This was despite some pretty good traditional numbers since he made it back to the majors in 2014 (171.1 innings, 3.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). Sabermetrics are a little less impressed with a 3.73 FIP and 4.39 xFIP. The big reason is while Boyer does a good job limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard, he doesn't miss many bats (4.6 K/9, 12.4% K% over last three years). Instead, he works off weak contact and inducing enough grounders to be successful. He's the epitome of an older style of pitching where you let your defense do its job and just focus on out-thinking the other hitter. All that matters is that it works. Over the last three years, Boyer has been a 1.1 fWAR reliever, which isn't great but ranks him 99th among 163 qualified relievers. It wasn't enough to get a major league deal, but he'll have a chance to be on the roster when the season begins.

Sam Freeman was an early pickup this offseason. Freeman has been in the majors in each of the last five seasons with his best work coming in 2014 as a member of the Cardinals. That season, he carried a 3.79 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. Unlike many southpaw options, Freeman has reverse splits, which limits his appeal. He's more likely to be a third lefty out of the pen and even then, his limitations against left-handers make that unlikely.

Eric O'Flaherty was brought back on a minor-league deal after being a last-minute addition to the roster last spring. Knee and elbow injuries limited him to 39 games last year and he wasn't particularly effective either. He had surgery on his left elbow last September to help with the tension and should be good-to-go as camp opens. His pitches last year lacked that typical O'Flaherty sink. We'll see if the surgery helped to fix that this spring.

Starting Candidates Left Over: Josh Collmenter, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz

Of this trio, Collmenter seems like the good bet to be part of the final mix. He was brought back on a $2M contract rather than being non-tendered and the Braves like his experience as a swingman who throws strikes. In an eight-man bullpen, there's certainly room for the long guy.

Depth for Gwinnett's starting staff, De La Cruz will get some innings - especially early in camp - but seems destined for a reassignment at some point. Danks could be an intriguing option, though. He's had major league success and is a bit tougher on lefties. With that said, he's going to need a tremendous spring to get in the mix for a spot out of the pen.

By StatsMP76 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Prospects: Caleb Dirks, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, Lucas Sims

This is a fun group and a mini-bullpen in its own right. While Dirks flies under the radar, the results are clearly there. In 110 games and 143.1 innings, Dirks has a 1.32 ERA, a 28% strikeout rate, and a 8% walk rate (intentional passes not included). He's allowed just six homeruns as well. Dirks lacks the big stuff or high velocity of other prospects, but in a results-driven business, he's got the resume. I imagine he'll be given a chance to produce at Gwinnett first, though.

A converted starter and former first-round pick, Hursh spent most of 2016 at Mississippi, which was the third consecutive season he did that. Hursh did pitch twice in the majors and also eight times with Gwinnett. If Bobby Cox was still the manager, he might look at Hursh as the next Kevin Gryboski and utilize him in as a "rally killer" who induces double plays. Hursh has never really lived up to his billing and probably won't start in 2017.

Speaking of haven't lived up to his billing, Luke Jackson was picked up in the Tyrell Jenkins trade. He quickly climbed to Triple-A, but has not been able to gain much momentum there. In two brief trips to the majors, he has struggled to find the strike zone and keep hitters from finding the seats when he does. The appeal is still there with Jackson hitting triple digits on the gun with an inconsistent, but devastating at times curveball. If the Braves can get him to locate his pitches and find consistency with his mechanics, he could be a high-leverage arm for them as soon as this year.

In A.J. Minter, the Braves have their "best relief prospect since Craig Kimbrel." They also have a potential x-factor for their bullpen if they feel he's ready to unleash on the National League in 2017. With a 97 mph heater that has amazing movement and a unique slider that darts into lefties and away from righties, Minter has two major-league quality offerings. If he can stay healthy, he can give the Braves yet another power arm that other teams have to game plan around in late innings. He has yet to throw in back-to-back games, but if he can cross that hurdle, the sky is the limit for his 2017 campaign.

Akeel Morris has been quietly effective for a few years now and while he doesn't have the ceiling of a Minter, he still has potential to work himself into high-leverage situations with his three-pitch mix of a mid 90's heater, solid changeup, and a slider that could make-or-break his career depending on how well he develops it. His delivery appears to come out of whack from time-to-time and I really worry about his long-term health considering how much his arm drags behind him before the ball is released. I believe his likely destination will be Gwinnett, but being already on the 40-man only helps his chances.

Finally, there is Lucas Sims. I am only including him on the chance the Braves get enamored with his potential as a reliever this spring. My belief is that he heads to Gwinnett and battles to climb the starting pitching depth chart, but many feel he is destined for a relief role at some point. Will that be 2017? It's possible.

To Sum Up...

I just gave you 18 options for four spots. Some of them are better bets than others, of course. It's hard to really nail down just what the Braves will do with the bullpen, though my bet is conservative to start the season. I think the six prospects I named are all destined for Gwinnett - though one or two could be pushed to Mississippi because of numbers. That brings us down to a dozen options. Winkler is likely to begin the year on the DL while Biddle probably needs to be brought back slowly. Now, we have ten options and I believe you can further lower that by removing De La Cruz and Danks from the discussion.

Four spots, eight names. My bet is that the Braves go with Collmenter and the two out-of-options guys in Ramirez and Roe. In that scenario, the final spot will be a three-way battle between Boyer, Freeman, and O'Flaherty - one likely to be won by Boyer. That would give us a bullpen of Johnson, Vizcaino, Krol, Cabrera, Ramirez, Roe, Boyer, and Collmenter to start the year.

If you don't like that bullpen, don't despair. The chances of the bullpen lasting even a month without injury or poor play forcing a move is minimal. At that point, we might see guys like Dirks, Jackson, Minter, and Morris start to work their way onto the team in a potentially permanent way. We could also see the Braves scrap the eight-man idea for a more conventional seven-man bullpen - which I definitely would prefer.

What does your bullpen look like? Think the Braves will go younger or do you agree that they will be more conservative to start the year? Let me know in the comments.

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Fifth Starter

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Football's done (sorry Falcons fans) and that means one glorious thing - baseball is just around the corner. In fact, in a few days, the Atlanta Braves will open spring training as pitchers and catchers report followed by the rest of the team. With all the negative in the world, spring training is a beautiful thing as it's impossible to not be a little optimistic. For Braves' fans, even as terrible as the last few years have been, it's an exciting time as this squad looks improved and a potential sleeper for a playoff slot.

If they get there, it will start with the rotation. Last season, only the Reds had a worse fWAR (4.7 to 3.1) from their starters. Unsurprisingly, the Braves rotation finished in the bottom 5 in FIP and xFIP and sixth worse in SIERA. The Braves were especially horrid in the second half. Over 72 starts, the rotation managed 0.3 fWAR. Ouch.

But 2017 promises to be different. The Braves added a trio of veterans to plug into the rotation as their younger arms continue to mature and they will join rotation leader Julio Teheran. To be fair, it's unlikely the Braves will compete with the Nationals and Mets as far as top rotations in the East, but it should be good enough to be closer to the league average, especially as 2017 opens. Presumably, a young gun or two will get a chance to push a veteran out of the mix from there.

Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey, and Teheran make up four. Who will join them? Let's take a look at the contenders.

The Presumptive Choice - Mike Foltynewicz

Folty's step forward in 2016 appeared to make him safe from needing to reclaim his rotation spot, but the additions of the three veterans - plus further flirting with Chris Archer and the like - meant that the Braves were not convinced that the hard-throwing righty had done enough to deserve an easy path onto 2017's roster. To be fair, Foltynewicz clearly has a foot in the door here. His work down the stretch makes that clear. After a 5.09 FIP during the first half, he finished the second half with a 3.68 FIP. That's promising though his xFIP shows a much smaller 18 point difference.

Looking at some of the changes in the second half versus the first half, one thing that stands out is more confidence in his changeup. It has given him a better weapon against lefties as a strikeout pitch. He doesn't use it much against righties, but it could be a weapon as he refines it. All in all, Foltynewicz certainly took a step forward and will be given an opportunity to do the same in 2017.

The Replaced - Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler

With the three veteran additions to the rotation, Blair and Wisler were put on notice - produce or enjoy Gwinnett. For Blair, it was much-needed after a poor first run in the majors. He struggled with Mike Minor Disease, a condition that forces pitchers to nibble around the strike zone to the point that they fall behind and are forced to throw strikes in hitter's counts. For example, Blair threw a first-pitch strike 4% fewer than the average pitcher and was in the zone 5% less. Subsequently, hitters swung more at pitches in the zone and made more contact because they were able to narrow their batting eye rather than be defensive in pitcher's counts. Blair has the potential to be an effective major league pitcher, but only after he trusts his stuff.

Matt Wisler was easily Atlanta's most disappointing pitcher last year. After a strong five-game run with the big league club over the final few weeks in 2015 (34.2 ING, 9 BB, 24 K, 2.34 ERA), Wisler was tabbed to slot into Shelby Miller's #2 spot. That mistake explains why the Braves were so anxious to bring in some more established pitchers for 2017. Wisler's numbers over the first couple of months looked great from a basic ERA standpoint, though a deeper look shows some questionable trends (.232 BABIP, xFIP near 5.00). In the second half, those trends pushed his ERA as high as 5.16.

Wisler is similar to Blair in many ways. Neither pitcher will rack up the strikeouts and instead, both will depend more on getting ahead and fooling the hitter into making soft contact. Wisler has struggled to do that. Despite solid walk numbers, he's thrown a first-pitch strike 58.8% of the time, about 2% below average. With his stuff and control, he needs to be above average with his location to be effective because we know hitters are going to make contact.

The Veteran - Josh Collmenter

At this point, we have a good idea who Collmenter is. He won't strike out many batters, won't walk many batters, and will surrender a fair number of gopher balls. His control was actually iffy last year before a 19-inning run with the Braves seemed to help. Surprisingly, he was brought back for 2017, though his chances to rejoin the rotation are minimal. Still, Collmenter has a good chance to break camp as the long guy out of the pen and be in line for some emergency starts as needed.

The "He's Still Around?" Minor Leaguers - Joel De La Cruz, John Danks, and Kris Medlen

This trio received minor league deals since the end of the season. De La Cruz is a Gordon Blackley special - a guy with Yankee minor league ties who the Braves later brought aboard. They haven't had much success with these longshots and De La Cruz wasn't anything special last year (5.19/5.03/5.09 FIP/xFIP/SIERA). That said, the Braves are comfortable with him and he gives them more starting pitching depth to stash at Gwinnett in case they need an emergency start and don't want to press a kid into the role.

As a lefty, Danks is likely around to compete for a bullpen slot, but with Teheran and Colon in the World Baseball Classic, there are innings to fill and a guy like Danks will have an opportunity. He hasn't been good since 2011 and was cut four starts into 2016 by the White Sox. As I wrote about Danks before, "consider that the Braves turned Bud Norris, Jhoulys Chacin, and Lucas Harrell into future assets last year." Does that mean they will do the same with Danks? Probably not.

I mentioned Medlen, but he won't be able to contribute until summer - if at all - and might only be a relief option. However, I wanted to mention Medlen in case you hadn't heard about it.

The Top Prospects - Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims

Both of these top pitching prospects will be in camp. Both have put up big strikeout numbers. Both have garnered Top 100 prospect status in the past. Both struggle to fire consistent strikes.

Newcomb is the higher ceiling guy here. Some have soured heavily on him while others, like me, believe there was enough progress in the second half of last season to justify the high praise. In fact, with only five prospects remaining to be revealed as part of my Top 50 Prospects, Newcomb is one of the special handful still in the running for the top spot. I mean, you can probably guess who's #1 and you might be right, but Newcomb's still alive here.

For Newcomb, his season's lowest point came on July 8th when he threw 45 pitches and couldn't get out of the first inning. Despite his epic failure of an outing, he only allowed one hit. Yikes. In the ten starts to follow, he K'd 34% of the batters he faced while keeping his walk rate at an acceptable 11%. Despite an ERA a good run-and-a-half higher than 2015, his FIP was roughly the same.

Newcomb is a longshot to push Foltynewicz. For him, it's more about impressing the coaches enough to move up the depth chart when - not if - but when a spot opens up. While the Braves have a lot potential ace-quality pitchers below Double-A, Newcomb has more upside than any Braves pitcher vying for a spot on this year's roster. He'll have to show he can dominate again like he did down the stretch, but if he does, he'll be in the bigs this summer.

As for Sims, he came in at #18 on my Top 50. He was in a similar place last year as Newcomb is this year. After a so-so first half in 2015, Sims finished the season on a hot streak with Mississippi that had fans and coaches alike hoping that the light had turned on for the talented righty. After a brief cameo in a return trip to Mississippi to start 2016, Sims headed to Gwinnett in late April and his first two starts went well (12 ING, 3 R, 16 K). The wheels came off from there as his ERA hovered over 9.00 over the next nine games. By mid-June, he was demoted back to Mississippi and finished with nearly a K-an-inning and a 2.83 ERA over his final 14 starts.

Sims' walk rate has steadily gotten worse over the last two years as hitters at the advanced levels are better equipped to handle his heater and force him to throw quality breaking balls. He's still going to get his strikeouts, but without consistent secondary offerings, he can't show the batter something new the second-and-third time through the order. That alone might make him destined for the bullpen.

The Braves will try to give Sims time to change course and improve his chances to remain a starter, but with plenty of reinforcements coming in "waves," the time to get back on track is now for the young righthander. If it doesn't click by midseason, a potentially permanent move to the bullpen might be in the cards.

The Sleeper - Patrick Weigel

With just one full season under his belt, this 2015 7th rounder is an ultra longshot, but he did receive a non-roster invitation for a reason. By the end of last season, Weigel was pitching in the playoffs for Mississippi, which tells us a lot about both his maturity level and his performance considering his relatively brief professional career.

Weigel was a closer in college, which limited expectations for him once he was drafted. Now, though, after the season he had last year (over a K-an-inning, 2.47 ERA), the expectations are sky high for Weigel. A return to Mississippi to start 2017 is likely for the righty considering the depth at Gwinnett, but don't be shocked to see Weigel receive a lot of press this spring.

To Sum Up...

One spot, ten pitchers. Oh, and likely, it's more like zero spots because Foltynewicz would probably have to experience a miserable spring to get bumped from his spot. Short of injury, this article looks like a lot of words written to come to a simple conclusion - it's Folty's to lose.

But as I mentioned throughout, for the younger pitchers on this list, this might not be a battle to open the season as the fifth starter, but to claim the sixth starter spot. Another word for that is "next guy in." Consider this: Colon and Dickey are in their 40's and the body likes to break down frequently at that age while Garcia has rarely been healthy the last five or so years. The Braves may balk at bringing up a kid for a spot start when they can rely on a veteran like Collmenter or Quad-A depth like De La Cruz, but the chances that each starter makes 30 starts in 2017 is astronomical. There will be a need for a guy for at least a few weeks to step in. Who that is will depend some on whose schedule lines up the best to replace the downed pitcher, but it will also rely heavily on the depth chart. Who's Gwinnett's #1? That guy has the best shot to get a promotion when the need arrives.

The Braves used 16 different starters last year, including Casey Kelly, Roberto Hernandez, and Ryan Weber. The year before, they called on ten different starters and used Trevor Cahill and Eric Stults. That's the difference between those years and this season. The additions of three veterans and continued development of pitching prospects has given the Braves a chance to plug-and-play a number of interesting arms.

Who's your pick for fifth starter? Is it Foltynewicz short of an epic spring collapse? Did I leave a pitcher out of the discussion? Let me know below.

Another Six-Pack of Minor League Signings

Here's another six pack of minor league free agent signings from this winter. So far this winter, I have done three of these and each focused on pre-December signings. Today's group were all added in the final month of 2016.

By Minda Haas Kuhlmann (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

Lane Adams, OF, 27 years-old

Drafted in the 13th round of the 2009 draft out of Red Oaks, Oklahoma, Adams began his career in the Royals system. A right-hand hitter who grew into his 6'3" frame, Adams developed a bit of pop with double digit homerun years beginning in 2012 and continuing through last season. Along the way, he has shown a decent enough bat with a .269 career batting average and .344 on-base percentage. He's also become much more adept at swiping bases. After a career-high 19 steals in 2012, he set a new record the following year with 38 steals and tied his own record again in 2014. After 31 steals in 2015, he stole a new high 44 bases last year. He also briefly appeared for the Royals in 2014 for six games (0-for-3 at the plate). Last year, he headed to the Yankees on waivers. He was cut last July but hooked on with the Cubs' Double-A squad for a good month of August.

Adams does possess some interesting qualities like a career .141 ISO, 208 steals, and he's capable of playing center field. However, despite all of his success, Adams has never been able to hit Triple-A pitching. Curiously, he's rarely received an opportunity. During his career, he has played 300 more games at Double-A than Triple-A and originally reached Double-A in 2013. Nevertheless, it's a small black mark on his minor league career. Adams seems like a potential fourth outfielder ala Darren Bragg, but he's going to have to hit above Double-A first.

Andrew Albers, LHP, 31 years-old

There's always a job for a left-hander. Albers began his career as a tenth rounder in the Padres' system in '08 but would miss a pair of seasons after needing Tommy John. The Padres cut him and after re-establishing himself as a prospect in the independent Canadian-American Association, the Twins signed Albers for the 2011 season. They tried to use him as a starter because he fit their mold for starters at the time (control artist, gets grounders, low strikeout numbers). It got Albers to the majors in 2013 for ten starts with iffy results (4.05 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.42 xFIP). He would be cut after the season so that Albers could try his luck in Korea. In the hyper-offensive KBO, his numbers took a turn toward ugly and he returned as a minor league free agent for the Blue Jays. He spent most of 2015 struggling in Triple-A, though he did log 2.2 innings in the majors. Last year included a one-start reign with Lancaster in the Atlantic League before the Twins swooped in and grabbed him. While he again spent most of the year in the International League (though with better results), he also pitched 17 innings for the Twins with a 6.15 FIP.

For some reason, teams still consider Albers a starter even though he can't get righties out. If we just look at his major league split, the differences are stark. While Albers will never record big strikeout numbers, he also won't walk lefties. That allows him to limit lefties to a .268 OBP despite a .250 batting average against the lefty. He's given up just two homers and walked just two lefties in the majors. That could help him compete for a spot on the Braves this spring, but Albers is going to have to prove he has something a little extra. He does have a four-pitch mix, though he works primarily off his mid-80's sinker and high-70's slider. He'll also toss a slow high-60's curve along with a rare 77 mph change-of-pace. He's definitely in the mix, but he's got the deck stacked against him.

Manny Barreda, RHP, 28 years-old

Over the last few years, the Braves have added a number of former Yankee farmhands. Barreda, a 12th rounder in 2007 by the Yanks, is just another that fits the bill. It took Barreda five years to establish himself in a full season minor league as he appeared in 45 games for Charleston in 2011. It would be the first time Barreda excited you with his strikeout numbers (10 per nine innings) and frustrated you with his walk totals (6 per nine innings). In 2013, he finally reached Double-A, but the Yankees were beginning to grow tired of waiting for Barreda to put it together. He'd be cut in July of 2014 and immediately joined the Brewers' system. After a nice finish to 2014, he opened 2015 in Mexico before rejoining the Brewers to finish the season. He would spend all of 2016 in Mexico.

Barreda has yet to play in Triple-A (not counting the Mexican League) and while he has over a strikeout-an-inning during his career, it does not completely overcome a 4.8 BB/9 rate and an unimpressive 0.7 HR/9. Shortly before he signed with the Braves, Barreda did something fairly noteworthy. While pitching for the Caneros de los Mochis, he tossed a no-hitter. He would need 138 pitches to do so, though walked just one and struck out nine. A flyball pitcher, scouting reports are pretty scarce for Barreda. His fastball during the no-hitter was in the 91-93 mph range while his breaking stuff (which may have been two different pitches) looked to be about 82-85 mph.

Emilio Bonifacio, UTIL, 31 years-old

What more needs to be said about Bonifacio? For a decade, he's been hanging around the majors and playing nearly every position on the field while doing so. He's a career .258/.315/.335 hitter in the majors with 166 steals and not much else that stands out. Last year, after the Braves surprisingly gave him a major league deal despite a .198 OBP with the White Sox in 2015, Atlanta ultimately cut Bonifacio right before the season and later brought him back on a minor league deal. He was a solid member of a better-than-advertised Gwinnett ballclub, slashing .298/.356/.369 with 37 steals over 107 games. He was rarely utilized as an infielder (just two games at second base). Bonifacio also received a pair of callups to the majors and especially during the first call-up, he was used entirely too frequently (streak of 15 consecutive games played).

Bonifacio is who he is at this point. He won't get on base that well and even when he does, his speed isn't the weapon it once was. While his defensive flexibility is an asset, he's only carried a positive grade at second base and in right field (though the latter has sample size issues). He's sometimes more of a detriment to a team than anything as managers fall in love with his intangibles and lose perspective on what Bonifacio really brings to the team. As Triple-A depth, you can do worse and with any luck, Triple-A will be exactly where he spends 2017.

By Sports Crazy on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Rhiner Cruz, RHP, 30 years-old

Like Barreda, Cruz is coming back to affiliated ball after a season spent in the Mexican League. Unlike Barreda, the previous two years for Cruz mostly saw the right-hander play for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. The last time Cruz pitched full-time in the states was 2013 - also the last time he was in the majors. Originally a non-July international signing by the Tigers in 2003, Cruz was rarely healthy for the Tigers before being cut. He signed on with the Mets and played five seasons in their system before being the surprising first choice of the Rule 5 draft by the Astros ahead of the 2012 season. In a sign of how bad the Astros were in 2012, they used Cruz 52 times despite a 5.00 FIP and 1.71 WHIP. The next year, he pitched 20 times in the majors and though his ERA was 3.38, his FIP and xFIP were actually worse. In 2014, after 14 games in the minors, the Astros released him so he could head to Japan.

His results weren't terrible in the far east, though it didn't make teams anxious to bring him back either. He briefly played in Mexico last year as well and has logged 13 games in the Dominican Winter Leagues with, again, average results. In regards to Cruz's scouting report, he has a funky delivery which helps him keep batters off-balanced. He also pairs a mid-90's heater with a fringy slurve. Though he has over 70 games of major league experience, Cruz is not much of a threat to break camp with the Braves.

By Jeff Dahl (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL],
via Wikimedia Commons

John Danks, LHP, 31 years-old

Maybe the most intriguing minor league signing to this point is Danks, a lefty who has earned nearly $73 million playing baseball for the Chicago White Sox. Once the ninth overall pick of the 2003 draft, the White Sox acquired Danks (along with future Brave Nick Masset) in December of 2006 for Brandon McCarthy and a minor leaguer. A top prospect at the time, Danks would start 26 games for the White Sox in 2007. He was bad, but many rookie pitchers are. He was much better the next three years as he started 97 games with a 3.61 ERA over 608.1 innings. He was never an All-Star, as his 3.91 FIP might indicate, but he was a durable middle-of-the-rotation arm. While his ERA would climb the next year and he missed a half-dozen starts, the White Sox still extended Danks for $65 million over five years. It was comparable to other pitchers like Jered Weaver and Chad Billingsley at the time.

However, Danks never lived up to the contract. Over the first four seasons of the deal, his ERA approached 5 and his FIP did as well. Never a strikeout pitcher, he still underperformed his K numbers from before the extension. A 15.5 fWAR pitcher from 2007-to-2011, Danks' value would sink to 2.6 fWAR over the life of the deal from the nine-start 2012 to the four-start 2016 before the White Sox took him out back and shot him (not literally - they just released him). Danks velocity has lost a couple of ticks over the years while his pitch usage surprisingly changed as he entered the extension. Before 2012, he relied on his four-seamer, cutter, and change. Since then, he has added a sinker, upped his changeup and curve usage, while bringing down his four-seamer and cutter deliveries.

That change could be altered with the Braves. Atlanta might also opt to drop Danks out of the rotation discussion and try to bring him along as a reliever. Danks lacks traditional splits, though he does trend more positively against lefthanders as you might expect and the contrast over the last three years plus (2013-16) are a bit starker (.332 wOBA vs. .353) with about a 5% difference in groundball rate. Also of note is a 4% difference in softly-hit balls.

It's nearly impossible to predict greatness from this signing, but there might be something of use here. Also, consider that the Braves turned Bud Norris, Jhoulys Chacin, and Lucas Harrell into future assets last year. Danks has had a much more established career than that trio.

For more minor league free agent recaps, click below.
November 27, December 4, December 19, or check here for the complete rundown.