In today's look around the league at former Braves, the focus is on the NL East. Because teams to not deal with their divisional rivals often, there aren't a lot of ex-Braves in the NL East - though most of the ones that are populate major league rosters. As usual, this list cannot be considered exhaustive and there is a better than average chance I'm missing a player or two. If you know of one, please comment below.
Miami Marlins
P Mike Dunn - He only spent 25 games with the Braves back in 2010 and walked way too many batters, but Dunn has been a solid reliever for Florida/Miami since arriving in the trade we try not to talk about involving a current National. He's been a little iffy this year for the Marlins, posting a 1.43 WHIP to go with an ugly 1.0 HR/9. But sample sizes involving just 26.2 innings can be problematic. He's signed through next year and here's a fun fact...his only experience in the postseason came as a Brave. He retired four-of-six Giants he faced in 2010 during three scoreless outings.
1B Jeff Baker - There are currently two players in the majors who were born in Germany. Edwin Jackson of the Cubs and Baker of the Marlins. He appeared in 14 games with the Braves after they picked him up in 2012 and had just two singles in 19 AB. Oddly, the Braves sent the Tigers Greg Ross to complete the deal. Ross, a pitcher, was cut at the end of spring training in 2013 without appearing in a game for the Tigers organization. He then resigned with the Braves and has spent the last year-and-a-half in Mississippi.
3B Martin Prado - Go ahead, name a Brave who was more beloved than Prado over the last five years. Freddie Freeman? Maybe. Craig Kimbrel? Possibly. But Prado was impossible not to like. A non-prospect who was supposed to have a best-case future of being a utility guy, Prado pushed Kelly Johnson to the side in 2009 and was an All-Star the following year. A trade moved him to left and over two years, he remained a pretty solid option out there. However, the Braves moved him to the D'Backs for Justin Upton as Prado wanted more money than the Braves were willing to give up. He has also played for the Yankees and now Marlins since leaving Atlanta and his numbers just don't look nearly as impressive as they did as a Brave (.280/.324/.407). He's on the DL with a shoulder injury.
New York Mets
P Buddy Carlyle - Last year, when Carlyle signed a minor league deal with the Mets, I looked at what Carlyle did for the Braves. In a certain way, Carlyle mimics Prado in that it's impossible not to like him, though that didn't make Carlyle beloved by any means. Carlyle was drafted in 1996 and despite making it to the majors in 1999, he has just one year where he has thrown 100 major league innings in a single season - 2007 with the Braves. If anyone bitches about how awful the Braves pitching has been at times this year, I point them to 2007. When Carlyle started 20 games, Chuck James started 30, Kyle Davies started 17, Jo-Jo Reyes started 10, and Lance Cormier started 9. I would mention Mark Redman's five starts, but I would have flashbacks that would send me under the desk in a fetal position.
P Sean Gilmartin - I remember someone getting upset we traded this guy for Ryan Doumit. Now, Doumit was an utter failure, but Gilmartin wasn't much of a prospect. Unfortunately, he's been pretty decent this year as a Rule 5 LOOGY for the Mets. I'd like to suggest it's all smoke and mirrors, but it's not. He might not ever be a major league starter, but he's got a shot to be good in limited bullpen action.
2B Brooks Conrad (AAA) - With Conrad, you get two memorable things that show the highs and lows of being a professional athlete. There were his two pinch-hit Grand Slams in 2010, including the one that made the Braves walk-off winners on May 20 against the Reds - still one of the coolest moments since The Streak ended. But...that kind of gets overshadowed by one of the worst postseason efforts in history. Not only did he managed just a single in 12 AB, but he was a nightmare in the field. His total four errors for the series was bad...especially when three came in Game 3, including on a grounder right between his legs that led to the go-ahead run in a 3-2 loss. Oh, his second led a to a run, too (though Jason Heyward should have called him off). 2010 should have been the best season of his career. Anyway, he has hit .205 for Las Vegas this year.
Philadelphia Phillies
P Aaron Harang - Harang has seen his strikeout rate fall a tick and his homer rate go up due to the park he plays in, but he's continued to show that he's not finished. Sadly, the Phillies are and have lost 11 of his 17 starts, which saddles Harang with the Senior Circuit's most losses. He hit the DL last week with plantar fasciitis.
OF Jeff Francoeur - After a year mostly spent in the minors, the now 31 year-old Francoeur is back in the majors and receiving significant playing time for the Phillies. He's hit about how you'd expect him to. He also got a chance to pitch this year and threw two innings against the Orioles on June 16, giving up two runs, walking three, and striking out Nolan Reimold, the first batter he ever faced.
Washington Nationals
P David Carpenter - His first name is actually Darrell so we have the REAL David Carpenter now. OldCarp flamed out in the Bronx and was shown the door after just 22 games. So, again, they gave up Manny Banuelos for Chasen Shreve and 22 games of OldCarp. Thanks! The Nats sent a minor leaguer to the Yankees for OldCarp and in his first eight games, he looked kinda better. He's currently on the paternity list so congrats!
2B Dan Uggla - At this point, Uggla's value is kind of the same as Jonny Gomes. You can use him against a starting lefthander and left-handed relievers, but you have to hide him against righties. Uggla has actually struck out as a lower rate than each of the last three years so maybe he's seeing the ball a bit better.
OF Reed Johnson - Another guy limited to only platoon advantage at-bats, Johnson spent a year-and-a-half in Atlanta and was pretty decent, though he posted better numbers as a Cub. He spent last year with the Marlins and now continues his NL East journey with the Nats. Well, except that he has been on the shelf since the 13-12 comeback win over the Braves that sent many a Braves fan in a downward spiral. The "big pop" in his foot required surgery and he is not expected back before rosters expand in September.
Recently profiled in Once a Brave, Always a Brave...
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Showing posts with label Doumit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Doumit. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Spring Training Preview: Outfield
Previous previews: Starting Rotation / Bullpen / Catcher & Infield
The Atlanta Braves have invested at least $48M into the outfield this offseason to go with an additional $46.35M that was already on the books. Regardless, many believe that this might be one of the worst outfields in baseball. Too bad money can't buy talent. Well, it should, but apparently, it doesn't.
Welcome to the last pre-spring training preview for the pre-Braves. While there are question marks all over the team, some of the biggest remain in the outfield, which was gutted by trades. With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Doumit, Jason Heyward, and Justin Upton. The first two names were crash-and-burn utility types that struggled with the Braves, but the losses of Heyward and Upton in the same offseason will be particularly difficult to replace. While there is a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that Heyward was not the offensive juggernaut that many projected him to be, for a team that didn't get on base last year, replacing a .351 OBP is no easy task. Nor is replacing Upton's 29 HR and .270/.342/.491 slash. Again, like Heyward, reasonable people can say Upton was not the player many projected him to be. Even so, that's a 7 WAR player over the last two years the Braves will not have around in 2015.
The simple replacement for Heyward is the $44M man, Nick Markakis. My thoughts on the deal are both on this blog and at my About.com site, but suffice it to say, I get why people argue that Markakis replaces Heyward in many ways with the bat. I also understand if people think Markakis replaces Heyward in the field considering he has two Gold Gloves. I get it, but the Braves did take a step back in right field and the reasons are clear.
Now, that's not to say the Braves should have kept Heyward, whose contract extension should be an interesting one considering his collection of all-around talent and potential to get better. No, my point is simply that this isn't a lateral move. The Braves are worse in right field. It's worth adding that Markakis's neck surgery is not expected to keep him from being ready for spring training.
Let's get one thing straight. The Braves do not have a better option than B.J. Upton. I'll mention a slew of guys who are around in the bench section of this article, but the Braves' best option is to play Justin's older brother and hope the work Melvin has put in this offseason with new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer pays off. We can look at B.J.'s problems all day, but a couple of things stand out to me. His groundball rate is up from the 40% range it was in his final three years with the Rays to about 44% with the Braves. That means less flyballs. Less flyballs means less extra base hits. Less extra base hits means less value. Less value loses games.
Whether it was his vision problem or a swing problem, B.J.'s not getting around on fastballs. He either misses or beats them into the ground. When he does elevate them, he tends to pop them up. Contrary to what you've seen with B.J. as a Brave, he was a pretty good fastball hitter with the Rays. The uppercut in his swing has always made him a good breaking ball hitter (and he was last year), but 60% of the time, he's being thrown fastballs. That's nothing abnormal, but he used to hit those pretty solidly, especially in his last two seasons with the Rays. This has led to a notable decrease in Zone-Contact% from over 80% with the Rays to about 73% with the Braves. That's a lot of pitches in the zone that he's swinging and missing on.
He still remains the best option for the Braves. That's not to prop up the guy or anything, but it's an observation based on the alternatives and the fact that B.J., despite his defensive miscues from time-to-time, is still a pretty good defender. His speed and generally smart routes is supported by a decent rate in Inside Edge Fielding on balls that have a remote or unlikely chance of being fielded.
The Braves do not have one player capable of being an everyday guy in left. I have blogged a couple of times that the best option is likely a platoon and I think the two best options for that platoon are Zoilo Almonte and Jonny Gomes. The latter was brought in specifically to be the right-hand hitting portion of a platoon. Oh, and to crack jokes in the clubhouse. Whether he's funny or not withstanding, he remains a threat against left-hand starters and relievers alike. Even though he has a vesting option for 2016, I imagine he will be trade bait unless the Braves are THE surprise club of 2015. Almonte is a switch-hitter and probably a better fielder, which allows him to caddy Gomes. In addition, he has shown a good ability to hit right-handed pitching in the minors. Together, they could make a solid platoon that - again - could combine for an .800 or so OPS.
But there are certainly other options. Recently signed Eric Young Jr. has received a lot of positive press, though I imagine it's because people still think he's the hitter his dad was. Young possesses a career .662 OPS for a reason. The good news is that he's a fairly skilled defender, especially in left field. With his speed and ability to move to the infield in the pinch along with playing center if needed, that could be enough to secure a spot on the bench. Still, if EY Jr. is starting for you more than a handful of times per month, you should see what you have in Gwinnett.
Which might be Eury Perez, a guy I profiled when the Braves claimed him. Perez has hit pretty solidly at least in terms of batting average in the minors, but shows little plate discipline and appears vulnerable to righties. He's a better defender than Young and if the Braves absolutely want to play someone over B.J., Perez is likely the only option who can at least match, if not surpass, B.J.'s defensive capabilities in center.
Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham should have a youtube series about hijinks in Gwinnett. The two have been stuck in AAA for the last few years trying to get an opportunity. Terdo can move to first if you need him to, but is limited to a substandard corner outfielder otherwise. He's displayed pretty good power in the minors at times and his switch-hit bat could interest the Braves as a bench option, though I doubt he'll be part of the LF battle royale unless he's sold his soul for a better hit tool. Cunningham didn't play in the majors last year, but did post a .754 OPS in the minors, which is good for his second-best OPS. He has the skills and intelligence to play a passable center field and if he sustains pop from last year (28 2B, 8 HR), he could push Perez on the depth chart.
Jose Constanza is still alive.
Another option is Dian Toscano. The 25 year-old who hits from the left side is probably limited to left field, but the Braves liked the Cuban enough to promise him a nice major league contract. Kelly Johnson has played left field, including 50 games with the Rays in 2013, and even picked up a start in right field last year. You might think he would be a reasonable possibility to platoon with the right-hand-hitting Gomes, but KJ oddly has reserve splits, though the discrepancy is not that notable. Oh, Cedric Hunter got an invite to spring training after hitting .295/.386/.495 for Mississippi last year, but don't get your hopes up. Hunter was last a prospect in 2008.
Did I miss anyone? How the outfield takes shape may ultimately be decided by who is out of options at the end of spring training for another team and is getting squeezed out, such as the case with Juan Francisco in 2012. No matter how you slice it, there will be a lot of players battling for playing time, especially in left field. Whether the outfield is as bad as people thinks may ultimately depend on if B.J. can at least approach a league average production at the plate. With his speed and defense, that would give him, and the team, a good amount of value. Without those fairly low expectations for B.J. being reached, I can see why some have ranked the Braves outfield among the worst in the game. This is where you say, "that's why they play the game and baseball players aren't computers."
The Atlanta Braves have invested at least $48M into the outfield this offseason to go with an additional $46.35M that was already on the books. Regardless, many believe that this might be one of the worst outfields in baseball. Too bad money can't buy talent. Well, it should, but apparently, it doesn't.
Welcome to the last pre-spring training preview for the pre-Braves. While there are question marks all over the team, some of the biggest remain in the outfield, which was gutted by trades. With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Doumit, Jason Heyward, and Justin Upton. The first two names were crash-and-burn utility types that struggled with the Braves, but the losses of Heyward and Upton in the same offseason will be particularly difficult to replace. While there is a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that Heyward was not the offensive juggernaut that many projected him to be, for a team that didn't get on base last year, replacing a .351 OBP is no easy task. Nor is replacing Upton's 29 HR and .270/.342/.491 slash. Again, like Heyward, reasonable people can say Upton was not the player many projected him to be. Even so, that's a 7 WAR player over the last two years the Braves will not have around in 2015.
Right Field
- Age - Markakis is six years older than Heyward. While the latter is entering the prime of his career, the former will likely be heading into the post-prime of his. Heyward can improve while Markakis has a strong chance to get worse.
- Defense - Gold Gloves are nice and I'm sure the Braves have proprietary defensive metrics that likely state Markakis is better than the widely available defensive metrics argue, but Heyward's defense was top notch. Even if Markakis outplays his is typically below league average UZR, he will look bad compared to Heyward.
- Baserunning - Well, duh.
Now, that's not to say the Braves should have kept Heyward, whose contract extension should be an interesting one considering his collection of all-around talent and potential to get better. No, my point is simply that this isn't a lateral move. The Braves are worse in right field. It's worth adding that Markakis's neck surgery is not expected to keep him from being ready for spring training.
Center Field
Whether it was his vision problem or a swing problem, B.J.'s not getting around on fastballs. He either misses or beats them into the ground. When he does elevate them, he tends to pop them up. Contrary to what you've seen with B.J. as a Brave, he was a pretty good fastball hitter with the Rays. The uppercut in his swing has always made him a good breaking ball hitter (and he was last year), but 60% of the time, he's being thrown fastballs. That's nothing abnormal, but he used to hit those pretty solidly, especially in his last two seasons with the Rays. This has led to a notable decrease in Zone-Contact% from over 80% with the Rays to about 73% with the Braves. That's a lot of pitches in the zone that he's swinging and missing on.
He still remains the best option for the Braves. That's not to prop up the guy or anything, but it's an observation based on the alternatives and the fact that B.J., despite his defensive miscues from time-to-time, is still a pretty good defender. His speed and generally smart routes is supported by a decent rate in Inside Edge Fielding on balls that have a remote or unlikely chance of being fielded.
Left Field/Bench
The Braves do not have one player capable of being an everyday guy in left. I have blogged a couple of times that the best option is likely a platoon and I think the two best options for that platoon are Zoilo Almonte and Jonny Gomes. The latter was brought in specifically to be the right-hand hitting portion of a platoon. Oh, and to crack jokes in the clubhouse. Whether he's funny or not withstanding, he remains a threat against left-hand starters and relievers alike. Even though he has a vesting option for 2016, I imagine he will be trade bait unless the Braves are THE surprise club of 2015. Almonte is a switch-hitter and probably a better fielder, which allows him to caddy Gomes. In addition, he has shown a good ability to hit right-handed pitching in the minors. Together, they could make a solid platoon that - again - could combine for an .800 or so OPS.
But there are certainly other options. Recently signed Eric Young Jr. has received a lot of positive press, though I imagine it's because people still think he's the hitter his dad was. Young possesses a career .662 OPS for a reason. The good news is that he's a fairly skilled defender, especially in left field. With his speed and ability to move to the infield in the pinch along with playing center if needed, that could be enough to secure a spot on the bench. Still, if EY Jr. is starting for you more than a handful of times per month, you should see what you have in Gwinnett.
Which might be Eury Perez, a guy I profiled when the Braves claimed him. Perez has hit pretty solidly at least in terms of batting average in the minors, but shows little plate discipline and appears vulnerable to righties. He's a better defender than Young and if the Braves absolutely want to play someone over B.J., Perez is likely the only option who can at least match, if not surpass, B.J.'s defensive capabilities in center.
Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham should have a youtube series about hijinks in Gwinnett. The two have been stuck in AAA for the last few years trying to get an opportunity. Terdo can move to first if you need him to, but is limited to a substandard corner outfielder otherwise. He's displayed pretty good power in the minors at times and his switch-hit bat could interest the Braves as a bench option, though I doubt he'll be part of the LF battle royale unless he's sold his soul for a better hit tool. Cunningham didn't play in the majors last year, but did post a .754 OPS in the minors, which is good for his second-best OPS. He has the skills and intelligence to play a passable center field and if he sustains pop from last year (28 2B, 8 HR), he could push Perez on the depth chart.
Jose Constanza is still alive.
Another option is Dian Toscano. The 25 year-old who hits from the left side is probably limited to left field, but the Braves liked the Cuban enough to promise him a nice major league contract. Kelly Johnson has played left field, including 50 games with the Rays in 2013, and even picked up a start in right field last year. You might think he would be a reasonable possibility to platoon with the right-hand-hitting Gomes, but KJ oddly has reserve splits, though the discrepancy is not that notable. Oh, Cedric Hunter got an invite to spring training after hitting .295/.386/.495 for Mississippi last year, but don't get your hopes up. Hunter was last a prospect in 2008.
Did I miss anyone? How the outfield takes shape may ultimately be decided by who is out of options at the end of spring training for another team and is getting squeezed out, such as the case with Juan Francisco in 2012. No matter how you slice it, there will be a lot of players battling for playing time, especially in left field. Whether the outfield is as bad as people thinks may ultimately depend on if B.J. can at least approach a league average production at the plate. With his speed and defense, that would give him, and the team, a good amount of value. Without those fairly low expectations for B.J. being reached, I can see why some have ranked the Braves outfield among the worst in the game. This is where you say, "that's why they play the game and baseball players aren't computers."
Monday, December 15, 2014
Last Minute Gift Ideas
Christmas is just around the corner and if you're anything like me, you still have a few things to get.
The Braves are in a similar position as they have done some of their shopping and they are keeping their eye on some big purchases if the price is right, but they also need to look for some little things to complete their Christmas shopping. Maybe a stocking stuffer or ugly sweater. Or power bat. One of those things.
George Kottaras - Catcher
I am going to make a concession here because Kottaras has defensive issues even though his defensive WAR at fangraphs has always been at least average. His pitch-framing, which you can find here, has always been miserable. He doesn't throw out anyone. Nevertheless, the Braves need offense and Kottaras, despite his career .215 batting average, gives you offense (especially compared to his position). How's that? He's posted a career walk rate of 14.1% and a .197 ISO. Since 2008, among catchers who have received 800 plate appearances, he ranks third in both categories. Yet he bounces around while others with such marks get long term deals. Kottaras has never been a starter and like I said, he has his shortcomings on defense. If the Braves want to focus on defense only for backup catcher, let Christian Bethancourt back-up. But if they want a veteran who gets on base, hits for power, and tries to play catcher, add Kottaras.
Rafael Furcal - Second Base
Whoa...didn't that bridge get burned for good? And a bomb dropped on it? And a sign was put up that said "Not Safe for Humans?" Yeah, probably, but the Braves could use another option at second base. I mean, they just gave Alberto Callaspo a contract. Why not Furcal on a minor league deal? Fookie was limited by injuries last year and might not hold up for very long, but he's worth a look. Sure, he won't steal a bunch of bases for you anymore, but as a stopgap until our next Furcal, Jose Peraza, arrives, he could provide a little value. At worst, you cut him before the season.
Mike Morse - First Base/Outfield
A member of the 2014 champs, Morse is again a thoroughly limited player. His defense at first isn't terrible, but in the outfield, he's horrendous. But like Brad Pitt in Moneyball, I don't really care about that because Morse gets on base. He also hits for power as evidence by his career ISO of .193. If Atlanta trades Justin Upton and/or Evan Gattis, they are going to need a bit more power. Hell, they probably need it now. Sure, Morse might Doumit all over the field next year, but let's focus on the positives. Morse, a right-hand hitter, isn't vulnerable when it relates to LHP vs. RHP, which allows you to use him late in games. Morse might not fit this article's definition of a bargain depending on where his market value lands, but he's worth the Christmas club money.
Chris Capuano - Starting Pitcher
40 pitchers last season threw their fastball less than 50% of the time. Of that 40, over half of them used their cutter enough to be disqualified from this exercise. That leaves 14 pitchers. Well, 13 if you take out the Canadian knuckleballer. One of those baker's dozen is Capuano, who went to the trusty number one just 44% of the time. Capuano reminds me of Aaron Harang, though not because of his pitching style. Capuano, like Harang, is a flyball pitcher who simply needs to land into a spot that will suppress his tendency to give up homers. Atlanta can be that place. Capuano has kept his FIP under 4.00 the last three years and would fit nicely either as a starter or long guy.
Gavin Floyd - Starting Pitcher
Hey, I know that guy! You remember Floyd and his elbow that decided it wanted to live independently of his body? Well, he's supposed to be fully healthy by spring and ready to give it another try in 2015. He was actually fairly productive before the injury and he came to Atlanta for a reason. Why not stick around and see if he can give the Braves 30 starts next year? After all, who else is going to start? David Hale?
Mike Adams - Relief Pitcher
Though he has spent the last two seasons mostly on the shelf as he "stole money" from the Phillies, Adams was able to get back to the majors last September and is worth a look. Before his injuries in Philly, Adams had posted a five-year run where he averaged almost 60 games with a 2.67 FIP and a 0.99 WHIP. On a one-year contract with incentives, he could become a major cog getting the game to the ninth.
So, there we have it. Six veteran "presents" that are truly presents for John Hart. Feel free to parade my ideas around as your own when you take home Executive of the Year. You're welcome.
The Braves are in a similar position as they have done some of their shopping and they are keeping their eye on some big purchases if the price is right, but they also need to look for some little things to complete their Christmas shopping. Maybe a stocking stuffer or ugly sweater. Or power bat. One of those things.
George Kottaras - Catcher
I am going to make a concession here because Kottaras has defensive issues even though his defensive WAR at fangraphs has always been at least average. His pitch-framing, which you can find here, has always been miserable. He doesn't throw out anyone. Nevertheless, the Braves need offense and Kottaras, despite his career .215 batting average, gives you offense (especially compared to his position). How's that? He's posted a career walk rate of 14.1% and a .197 ISO. Since 2008, among catchers who have received 800 plate appearances, he ranks third in both categories. Yet he bounces around while others with such marks get long term deals. Kottaras has never been a starter and like I said, he has his shortcomings on defense. If the Braves want to focus on defense only for backup catcher, let Christian Bethancourt back-up. But if they want a veteran who gets on base, hits for power, and tries to play catcher, add Kottaras.
Rafael Furcal - Second Base
Whoa...didn't that bridge get burned for good? And a bomb dropped on it? And a sign was put up that said "Not Safe for Humans?" Yeah, probably, but the Braves could use another option at second base. I mean, they just gave Alberto Callaspo a contract. Why not Furcal on a minor league deal? Fookie was limited by injuries last year and might not hold up for very long, but he's worth a look. Sure, he won't steal a bunch of bases for you anymore, but as a stopgap until our next Furcal, Jose Peraza, arrives, he could provide a little value. At worst, you cut him before the season.
Mike Morse - First Base/Outfield
A member of the 2014 champs, Morse is again a thoroughly limited player. His defense at first isn't terrible, but in the outfield, he's horrendous. But like Brad Pitt in Moneyball, I don't really care about that because Morse gets on base. He also hits for power as evidence by his career ISO of .193. If Atlanta trades Justin Upton and/or Evan Gattis, they are going to need a bit more power. Hell, they probably need it now. Sure, Morse might Doumit all over the field next year, but let's focus on the positives. Morse, a right-hand hitter, isn't vulnerable when it relates to LHP vs. RHP, which allows you to use him late in games. Morse might not fit this article's definition of a bargain depending on where his market value lands, but he's worth the Christmas club money.
Chris Capuano - Starting Pitcher
40 pitchers last season threw their fastball less than 50% of the time. Of that 40, over half of them used their cutter enough to be disqualified from this exercise. That leaves 14 pitchers. Well, 13 if you take out the Canadian knuckleballer. One of those baker's dozen is Capuano, who went to the trusty number one just 44% of the time. Capuano reminds me of Aaron Harang, though not because of his pitching style. Capuano, like Harang, is a flyball pitcher who simply needs to land into a spot that will suppress his tendency to give up homers. Atlanta can be that place. Capuano has kept his FIP under 4.00 the last three years and would fit nicely either as a starter or long guy.
Gavin Floyd - Starting Pitcher
Hey, I know that guy! You remember Floyd and his elbow that decided it wanted to live independently of his body? Well, he's supposed to be fully healthy by spring and ready to give it another try in 2015. He was actually fairly productive before the injury and he came to Atlanta for a reason. Why not stick around and see if he can give the Braves 30 starts next year? After all, who else is going to start? David Hale?
Mike Adams - Relief Pitcher
Though he has spent the last two seasons mostly on the shelf as he "stole money" from the Phillies, Adams was able to get back to the majors last September and is worth a look. Before his injuries in Philly, Adams had posted a five-year run where he averaged almost 60 games with a 2.67 FIP and a 0.99 WHIP. On a one-year contract with incentives, he could become a major cog getting the game to the ninth.
So, there we have it. Six veteran "presents" that are truly presents for John Hart. Feel free to parade my ideas around as your own when you take home Executive of the Year. You're welcome.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Interesting Rule 5 Guys
The Rule 5 draft rarely hurts the team losing the player and rarely does much for the team gaining the player. The Atlanta Braves last drafted a player in the Rule 5 in 2011, picking up lefty Robert Fish from the Angels. While Fish was kept as the Angels weren't that interested in getting him back for the second straight year (he was a Rule 5 choice the year before), the former sixth rounder never played above A-ball for the Braves and was released. You have to go all the way back to 1997 to find a player the Braves picked in the Rule 5 and who broke camp with the team. Brian Edmondson appeared in ten games for Atlanta that season before being waived in early June. A few followed the Chris Spurling road. Get drafted, spend most if not all of the spring with the Braves, get traded.
While Atlanta has rarely selected players, it has been more frequently raided by other teams. Most recently, the Twins picked up left-hander Scott Diamond in 2011 and he started 58 games for them between 2011 and 2013. A Canadian fan favorite and outfielder, Adam Stern was picked in 2004. Like Diamond after him, fans bemoaned the loss as another player on the 40-man roster was kept over him. He also shares the fact that his career was short and unremarkable with Diamond.
Not that there aren't Rule 5 success stories. Johan Santana stands out and as does our former friend Dan Uggla. It's just rare that the player even sticks around to play for the team he was drafted by and rare that the Braves even try.
But this year could be the kind of season to give it a try. We've heard all winter how Frank Wren destroyed the minor league depth for the organization. Whether that's fair or not, looking at who the Braves worked to keep a few weeks ago, it's fairly obvious that there truly is a problem. If Atlanta wants to add depth, the answer might come in December 11th's Rule 5 draft. The only problem is that to get a draft choice, you need to have room on the 40-man roster. Currently, Atlanta is carrying 40 players. That could change and I truly hope it does. Here are some of the guys who could be useful for the Braves in 2015 and beyond.
An Option for the Starting Rotation
Jed Bradley - Milwaukee
As rare as picking a pitcher that sticks is, it's almost never seen that a starter jumps into his new team's rotation like Diamond did as Rule 5 choice. However, as it stands, the Braves do have an empty spot at the bottom of the rotation. Sure, there are the flirtations with Jon Lester and Justin Masterson, the intriguing cases of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, and the exceedingly mediocre David Hale, but as of right this second, the fifth spot is wide open. Could Bradley be an option? Obviously, he would have to make an impression in spring training and pitching coach Roger McDowell would have to do his magic, but Bradley is only three years removed from being the 15th overall selection out of Georgia Tech. The left-hand starter could get a shot at bullpen work, but let's look at him as a starter first. He certainly hasn't been overly impressive stat-wise just yet, but something to consider was that he moved toward getting more groundballs last year. Things clicked and led to a promotion to AA, where he started strong and was roughed up late. Making the jump to the majors after 17 starts in AA is hard for huge prospects, let alone fringe ones. He has a nice mid-90's fastball and a good feel for his change-up. Would he stick with the Braves? Probably not. However, if pitching depth is a problem, why not take a chance? An alternate route is if McDowell likes him and wants to keep working with him, the Braves could work out a deal with the Brewers to keep Bradley, but send him to the minors.
Greg Peavey - New York Mets
A member of the Little League World Series in 2000, Peavey's velocity stays in the low 90's. With a good, hard slider, he might be better off in the bullpen, but is coming off a solid year with AA Binghamton in the Eastern League where he posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. A six-start run in the Pacific Coast League with Las Vegas didn't go so well and his AAA numbers are abysmal, but the former sixth rounder from Oregon State has superb control and is a bit of a surprise that he's even available.
Bullpen Depth
Greg Infante - Toronto
Unlike many that could interest the Braves, Infante has some major league experience as he appeared in five games with the White Sox in 2010. He hasn't got back to the majors since, but the now 27 year-old did have a 1.94 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 2.4 K/BB in 41 games last season. Bullpen guys have a better chance of sticking than starters out of the Rule 5 draft and Infante could possibly help the Braves next season.
Andrew McKirahan - Chicago Cubs
You want strikeouts? He has plenty. You want control? Impeccable. You want a lefty? Bingo. McKirahan has only pitched 21 games above A-ball, but seems to stand a great chance of being drafted in a few weeks (or traded beforehand). Another member of the Tommy John Saved Our Career Club, McKirahan could surprise some people in 2015.
Keith Butler - St. Louis
Recently outrighted by the Cards, Butler has appeared in 18 games in the majors over the last two seasons and has great ratios in the minors. However, he missed most of last season with Tommy John and could miss significant time in 2015 working his way back. After an exhaustive rehab stint, the Braves will be forced to make a decision. The good news is that Butler could be a really good reliever. The bad news is that it might not come until 2016.
Sean Gilmartin - Minnesota
Amazingly, people were sweating losing Gilmartin in last year's Ryan Doumit trade. While Doumit and his demon eyes crashed and burned, Gilmartin stagnated. But he pitches with his left arm and that makes him a bit more valuable than he probably should be. As a long reliever/emergency starter/sometimes LOOGY, Gilmartin could be an option.
John Stilson - Toronto
Unlike many available prospects in the draft, Stilson has extensive time at AAA. He also is coming off shoulder surgery that will likely keep him from competing for a spot in camp. However, his mid-90's fastball and good change-up could interest Atlanta into taking a shot on the former Texas A&M pitcher.
Bench Options
Mark Canha - Florida
With right-handed pop at a premium, Canha could intrigue teams like the Braves. While his natural defensive position is blocked by Freddie Freeman, Canha does have limited experience at third base and in the corner outfield positions and the good news there is that experience is recent. He's coming off a season with AAA-New Orleans where Canha slashed .303/.384/.505, which were mild improvements over his career numbers.
Delino DeShields - Houston
It's remarkable that he is available for this draft, though that also might be a sign that there is something that doesn't add up with this kid. The son of a former MLB player, DeShields possesses world-class speed included 101 steals in 2012. He gets his fair share of swings-and-misses, but still does a solid job getting on base, making his speed a real weapon. He also has enough pop to surpass ten homers in two-of-the-last three seasons. Defensively, he's probably nothing special in center, which he was moved to last season, though he also plays seconds. So, the problem? Attitude, it appears. He has been pulled more than a few times for not running out balls. Talent-wise, he's probably the best offensive player in this draft. But will he accept coaching and play hard? Well, the Astros, of all teams, did leave him unprotected for a reason.
Jared Mitchell - Chicago White Sox
Always a strikeout-prone left-hand hitter, this 2009 first-round talent has been a bust for his entire career. Until last season, that is. The former LSU Tiger still struck out a ton, but he posted his best season with an .806 OPS and 19 HR. He has some speed, though his basestealing isn't much of a skill. He also walks at a solid rate. Could be a late bloomer with platoon capability in left.
Matt Skole - Washington
With the Braves reportedly interested in a platoon option to pair with Chris Johnson, Skole could attract some attention. A fifth rounder in 2011, Skole came onto the scene the following season with a .291/.426/.559 slash that included 27 homers. A significant wrist injury sidelined him in 2013 and the his numbers were down in 2014, but he did hit 5 of his 14 homers in his final 19 games. However, he moved across the diamond for most of the season so he might not be able to play a competent enough 3B at this point.
Zach Borenstein - Arizona
A left-hand hitting corner outfielder, Borenstein was picked up by the D'Backs in the trade that send Joe Thatcher to Anaheim. In four seasons since being drafted in the 23rd round, all he has done is hit to the tune of .286/.359/.509 while climbing to AAA for 20 games last year. Does he have much upside? Probably not. Will he be a AAA regular for the next five years before moving to Asia? Possibly. But he's worth a look for a team that could use options in the outfield.
Chances are that none of these players become productive major leaguers. Teams have essentially said that they are not good enough to be protected and they are probably right in most cases. This is where the scouts earn their money. Atlanta probably won't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, but for a team that has plenty of holes, I believe it's worth a shot on these players I've profiled and others I didn't mention.
While Atlanta has rarely selected players, it has been more frequently raided by other teams. Most recently, the Twins picked up left-hander Scott Diamond in 2011 and he started 58 games for them between 2011 and 2013. A Canadian fan favorite and outfielder, Adam Stern was picked in 2004. Like Diamond after him, fans bemoaned the loss as another player on the 40-man roster was kept over him. He also shares the fact that his career was short and unremarkable with Diamond.
Not that there aren't Rule 5 success stories. Johan Santana stands out and as does our former friend Dan Uggla. It's just rare that the player even sticks around to play for the team he was drafted by and rare that the Braves even try.
But this year could be the kind of season to give it a try. We've heard all winter how Frank Wren destroyed the minor league depth for the organization. Whether that's fair or not, looking at who the Braves worked to keep a few weeks ago, it's fairly obvious that there truly is a problem. If Atlanta wants to add depth, the answer might come in December 11th's Rule 5 draft. The only problem is that to get a draft choice, you need to have room on the 40-man roster. Currently, Atlanta is carrying 40 players. That could change and I truly hope it does. Here are some of the guys who could be useful for the Braves in 2015 and beyond.
An Option for the Starting Rotation
Jed Bradley - Milwaukee
As rare as picking a pitcher that sticks is, it's almost never seen that a starter jumps into his new team's rotation like Diamond did as Rule 5 choice. However, as it stands, the Braves do have an empty spot at the bottom of the rotation. Sure, there are the flirtations with Jon Lester and Justin Masterson, the intriguing cases of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, and the exceedingly mediocre David Hale, but as of right this second, the fifth spot is wide open. Could Bradley be an option? Obviously, he would have to make an impression in spring training and pitching coach Roger McDowell would have to do his magic, but Bradley is only three years removed from being the 15th overall selection out of Georgia Tech. The left-hand starter could get a shot at bullpen work, but let's look at him as a starter first. He certainly hasn't been overly impressive stat-wise just yet, but something to consider was that he moved toward getting more groundballs last year. Things clicked and led to a promotion to AA, where he started strong and was roughed up late. Making the jump to the majors after 17 starts in AA is hard for huge prospects, let alone fringe ones. He has a nice mid-90's fastball and a good feel for his change-up. Would he stick with the Braves? Probably not. However, if pitching depth is a problem, why not take a chance? An alternate route is if McDowell likes him and wants to keep working with him, the Braves could work out a deal with the Brewers to keep Bradley, but send him to the minors.
Greg Peavey - New York Mets
A member of the Little League World Series in 2000, Peavey's velocity stays in the low 90's. With a good, hard slider, he might be better off in the bullpen, but is coming off a solid year with AA Binghamton in the Eastern League where he posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. A six-start run in the Pacific Coast League with Las Vegas didn't go so well and his AAA numbers are abysmal, but the former sixth rounder from Oregon State has superb control and is a bit of a surprise that he's even available.
Bullpen Depth
Greg Infante - Toronto
Unlike many that could interest the Braves, Infante has some major league experience as he appeared in five games with the White Sox in 2010. He hasn't got back to the majors since, but the now 27 year-old did have a 1.94 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 2.4 K/BB in 41 games last season. Bullpen guys have a better chance of sticking than starters out of the Rule 5 draft and Infante could possibly help the Braves next season.
Andrew McKirahan - Chicago Cubs
You want strikeouts? He has plenty. You want control? Impeccable. You want a lefty? Bingo. McKirahan has only pitched 21 games above A-ball, but seems to stand a great chance of being drafted in a few weeks (or traded beforehand). Another member of the Tommy John Saved Our Career Club, McKirahan could surprise some people in 2015.
Keith Butler - St. Louis
Recently outrighted by the Cards, Butler has appeared in 18 games in the majors over the last two seasons and has great ratios in the minors. However, he missed most of last season with Tommy John and could miss significant time in 2015 working his way back. After an exhaustive rehab stint, the Braves will be forced to make a decision. The good news is that Butler could be a really good reliever. The bad news is that it might not come until 2016.
Sean Gilmartin - Minnesota
Amazingly, people were sweating losing Gilmartin in last year's Ryan Doumit trade. While Doumit and his demon eyes crashed and burned, Gilmartin stagnated. But he pitches with his left arm and that makes him a bit more valuable than he probably should be. As a long reliever/emergency starter/sometimes LOOGY, Gilmartin could be an option.
John Stilson - Toronto
Unlike many available prospects in the draft, Stilson has extensive time at AAA. He also is coming off shoulder surgery that will likely keep him from competing for a spot in camp. However, his mid-90's fastball and good change-up could interest Atlanta into taking a shot on the former Texas A&M pitcher.
Bench Options
Mark Canha - Florida
With right-handed pop at a premium, Canha could intrigue teams like the Braves. While his natural defensive position is blocked by Freddie Freeman, Canha does have limited experience at third base and in the corner outfield positions and the good news there is that experience is recent. He's coming off a season with AAA-New Orleans where Canha slashed .303/.384/.505, which were mild improvements over his career numbers.
Delino DeShields - Houston
It's remarkable that he is available for this draft, though that also might be a sign that there is something that doesn't add up with this kid. The son of a former MLB player, DeShields possesses world-class speed included 101 steals in 2012. He gets his fair share of swings-and-misses, but still does a solid job getting on base, making his speed a real weapon. He also has enough pop to surpass ten homers in two-of-the-last three seasons. Defensively, he's probably nothing special in center, which he was moved to last season, though he also plays seconds. So, the problem? Attitude, it appears. He has been pulled more than a few times for not running out balls. Talent-wise, he's probably the best offensive player in this draft. But will he accept coaching and play hard? Well, the Astros, of all teams, did leave him unprotected for a reason.
Jared Mitchell - Chicago White Sox
Always a strikeout-prone left-hand hitter, this 2009 first-round talent has been a bust for his entire career. Until last season, that is. The former LSU Tiger still struck out a ton, but he posted his best season with an .806 OPS and 19 HR. He has some speed, though his basestealing isn't much of a skill. He also walks at a solid rate. Could be a late bloomer with platoon capability in left.
Matt Skole - Washington
With the Braves reportedly interested in a platoon option to pair with Chris Johnson, Skole could attract some attention. A fifth rounder in 2011, Skole came onto the scene the following season with a .291/.426/.559 slash that included 27 homers. A significant wrist injury sidelined him in 2013 and the his numbers were down in 2014, but he did hit 5 of his 14 homers in his final 19 games. However, he moved across the diamond for most of the season so he might not be able to play a competent enough 3B at this point.
Zach Borenstein - Arizona
A left-hand hitting corner outfielder, Borenstein was picked up by the D'Backs in the trade that send Joe Thatcher to Anaheim. In four seasons since being drafted in the 23rd round, all he has done is hit to the tune of .286/.359/.509 while climbing to AAA for 20 games last year. Does he have much upside? Probably not. Will he be a AAA regular for the next five years before moving to Asia? Possibly. But he's worth a look for a team that could use options in the outfield.
Chances are that none of these players become productive major leaguers. Teams have essentially said that they are not good enough to be protected and they are probably right in most cases. This is where the scouts earn their money. Atlanta probably won't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, but for a team that has plenty of holes, I believe it's worth a shot on these players I've profiled and others I didn't mention.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: The Outfield
Let's finish up, shall we?
Outfield
Who we got?... Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza (I guess), Zoilo Almonte (?), Evan Gattis (sigh)
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Ryan Doumit, Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Todd Cunningham, Kyle Wren
There is an outside shot the Braves could field an entirely new outfield in 2015, but that's probably not going to happen. What seems fairly possible is at least one player will be moved and that the "Dream Outfield" will be broken up before a third year.
In the case of J-Hey, we are seeing a real disconnect between the more traditional crowd and the sabermetric one. J-Hey's offense is hardly stand-out. Like too many Braves last year, his power was MIA and his isolated slugging was .113. He's only a career .262/.351/.429 hitter. He stole 20 bases for the second time in three years, though between those years was a two-steal year. Hardly what the phenom was supposed to be capable of when he first came on the scene back in 2010. Yet, a nerd would go to fangraphs and other websites and tell you that J-Hey is a great ball player. He's been nearly worth 15 fWAR the last three seasons, plays extraordinary defense (32 DRS last year was the 2nd most since the stat began in 2002), and his baserunning is well above average (one of 35 players to post at least 10 BRS the last three years). What's really interesting is where this disconnect lands Heyward contractually. Without the traditional numbers, will he able to attract the kind of money many of us foresee guys with 5 and 6 fWAR seasons in the bank? Heyward, who is a free agent after 2015, will either be overpaid or underpaid depending on what you value.
J-Up will also hit free agency next winter and the guy who was not gritty enough to be a Diamondback has been worth 7 fWAR the last two seasons while hitting 56 homers. He's a more established hitter than Heyward, but not as complete of a player. This is where I think things could get intriguing. Which one gets the bigger deal? I can see teams that value statistical analysis aiming for Heyward while more traditional front offices wanting Upton (if they don't buy the D'Backs BS).
In center is Justin's older brother, B.J. Let's get this out of the way: Upton was better in 2014 than he was in 2013. That's to say that he only had his second worst season of his career, not the worst. Earlier, I mentioned that over the last two seasons, only one player has made less contact than B.J. when he swings. Put it this way...slightly more than 30% of the time B.J. swings, he makes no contact. That's roughly 10% more than the average. The average swinging strike% is 9.5%. Basically, how many times did you swing and miss out of total swings. B.J. has been above 15% both of the last two years. Only five other players have done that. The weird thing is that B.J., unlike many of those guys, doesn't swing all that much at pitches outside the strike zone. He actually is above average and doesn't offer too often at the crap. He simply doesn't make contact. Weirdest thing. If the Braves can't fix that, they will be on the hook for $45M to a guy who might not give them more than 2 wins above replacement over the lifetime of the contract (sitting at -0.2 right now).
Behind them is the recently signed Zoilo Almonte. Like Ramiro Pena before him, the Braves thought enough of the Yankees trash to offer a major league deal. He's got pretty good pop and can switch-hit, but I don't see much to get excited about. Terdo can back up at the corner outfield spots and might develop into a useful bench bat. Constanza licks bats. I feel like that's all I should mention.
Doumit was woeful in his new role as pinch-hitter deluxe while Bonifacio could be brought back to be the 25th guy. He's not a particularly good outfielder, but he's not particularly good at anything which is why he's only suited to be a backup. At Gwinnett is the uber-ready Cunningham and Mr. Wren. Cunningham certainly deserves a shot that the Braves don't seem to think he's capable of doing much with. He won't hit for much pop, but does other things fairly well and dammit, he's home grown. Give him a shot. As for Wren, he has potential, but might need more time.
And yeah, there's Gattis. I want to believe Atlanta's not dumb enough to use him in left, but then Fredi says something like Gattis "could be versatile, can catch, play LF" and I want to scream. This should not happen. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN!!!!!
It's probably going to happen.
Depth Chart
RF: Heyward
CF: B.J. Upton
LF: J. Upton
1. Almonte
2. Constanza
3. Cunningham
4. Terdoslavich
Outfield
Who we got?... Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza (I guess), Zoilo Almonte (?), Evan Gattis (sigh)
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Ryan Doumit, Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Todd Cunningham, Kyle Wren
There is an outside shot the Braves could field an entirely new outfield in 2015, but that's probably not going to happen. What seems fairly possible is at least one player will be moved and that the "Dream Outfield" will be broken up before a third year.
In the case of J-Hey, we are seeing a real disconnect between the more traditional crowd and the sabermetric one. J-Hey's offense is hardly stand-out. Like too many Braves last year, his power was MIA and his isolated slugging was .113. He's only a career .262/.351/.429 hitter. He stole 20 bases for the second time in three years, though between those years was a two-steal year. Hardly what the phenom was supposed to be capable of when he first came on the scene back in 2010. Yet, a nerd would go to fangraphs and other websites and tell you that J-Hey is a great ball player. He's been nearly worth 15 fWAR the last three seasons, plays extraordinary defense (32 DRS last year was the 2nd most since the stat began in 2002), and his baserunning is well above average (one of 35 players to post at least 10 BRS the last three years). What's really interesting is where this disconnect lands Heyward contractually. Without the traditional numbers, will he able to attract the kind of money many of us foresee guys with 5 and 6 fWAR seasons in the bank? Heyward, who is a free agent after 2015, will either be overpaid or underpaid depending on what you value.
J-Up will also hit free agency next winter and the guy who was not gritty enough to be a Diamondback has been worth 7 fWAR the last two seasons while hitting 56 homers. He's a more established hitter than Heyward, but not as complete of a player. This is where I think things could get intriguing. Which one gets the bigger deal? I can see teams that value statistical analysis aiming for Heyward while more traditional front offices wanting Upton (if they don't buy the D'Backs BS).
In center is Justin's older brother, B.J. Let's get this out of the way: Upton was better in 2014 than he was in 2013. That's to say that he only had his second worst season of his career, not the worst. Earlier, I mentioned that over the last two seasons, only one player has made less contact than B.J. when he swings. Put it this way...slightly more than 30% of the time B.J. swings, he makes no contact. That's roughly 10% more than the average. The average swinging strike% is 9.5%. Basically, how many times did you swing and miss out of total swings. B.J. has been above 15% both of the last two years. Only five other players have done that. The weird thing is that B.J., unlike many of those guys, doesn't swing all that much at pitches outside the strike zone. He actually is above average and doesn't offer too often at the crap. He simply doesn't make contact. Weirdest thing. If the Braves can't fix that, they will be on the hook for $45M to a guy who might not give them more than 2 wins above replacement over the lifetime of the contract (sitting at -0.2 right now).
Behind them is the recently signed Zoilo Almonte. Like Ramiro Pena before him, the Braves thought enough of the Yankees trash to offer a major league deal. He's got pretty good pop and can switch-hit, but I don't see much to get excited about. Terdo can back up at the corner outfield spots and might develop into a useful bench bat. Constanza licks bats. I feel like that's all I should mention.
Doumit was woeful in his new role as pinch-hitter deluxe while Bonifacio could be brought back to be the 25th guy. He's not a particularly good outfielder, but he's not particularly good at anything which is why he's only suited to be a backup. At Gwinnett is the uber-ready Cunningham and Mr. Wren. Cunningham certainly deserves a shot that the Braves don't seem to think he's capable of doing much with. He won't hit for much pop, but does other things fairly well and dammit, he's home grown. Give him a shot. As for Wren, he has potential, but might need more time.
And yeah, there's Gattis. I want to believe Atlanta's not dumb enough to use him in left, but then Fredi says something like Gattis "could be versatile, can catch, play LF" and I want to scream. This should not happen. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN!!!!!
It's probably going to happen.
Depth Chart
RF: Heyward
CF: B.J. Upton
LF: J. Upton
1. Almonte
2. Constanza
3. Cunningham
4. Terdoslavich
Saturday, November 8, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: Catcher
Since 1994, two players have dominated the playing time at catcher, providing the Braves with both consistency and top notch performance. After Brian McCann left the Braves for the higher tax bracket found in the Bronx, Evan Gattis took over last season. Gattis was a surprise in 2013 and his bat became such a focal point to the offense that the Braves dealt with his "defense" in left field just to get him into the lineup. While a rhomboid muscle injury (whatever that is) limited him in his first year as the starter, Gattis led the team in Isolated Slugging with .230 and belted 22 homers, second on the team. There is enough to suggest he might not get a second season, though.
Who we got?... Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Gerald Laird
Who might be coming?... Yenier Bello
Like I was saying, Gattis was productive even though he was limited by both injury and Fredi's often confusing playing schedule that appeared to rest Gattis more than other catchers. Still, he put up numbers resembling his impressive rookie year of 2013. In fact, it was strangely similar. In 2013, he hit 22 homers and walked 22 times. In 2014? 21 moonshots and 21 walks. He was able to do that by walking 5.5% of the time in both seasons. Overall, though, it was a better season. Not limited by bench duty, Gattis posted a .352 OBA which was about a 30 point increase. He also enjoyed a 40 point increase in his BABIP, which we don't know enough to consider sustainable. Regardless, more balls eluding fielders naturally turned into more hits and a better OBP. Despite a limited campaign, Gattis matched McCann's 2.3 fWAR even though the former Brave played in 32 more games.
Gattis has tremendous power for a catcher. Only Devin Mesoraco posted a better ISO than Gattis and Mesoraco plays in a t-ball park. Now, Gattis is not without his issues. Beyond the health questions, his defense leaves something to be desired. His footwork is questionable and his arm doesn't grade highly (-2 rSB). Plus, his pitch framing is a far cry from McCann's quietly awesome work (-1.1 RAA). This looks especially bad compared to Christian Bethancourt, who lacks the quantity of advanced stats, but passes the eye test. C-Beth has a cannon and great footwork. But can he hit? The jury remains out just like it has been since the first day he signed. He has posted just one RC+ over 100 for a full season since his first year in the minors back in 2009. Now, this is slightly unfair because he was often in the midst of a decent offensive season before being promoted up to the chain. His defense has always been deserving of praise and has pushed him up to levels his bat wasn't prepared for. Still, outside of better power over the last two years (ISO's finally climbing over .100), he has shown very little improvement. He still doesn't take walks, though he doesn't K all that much, and is not led by a consistently high BABIP that produces a good batting average. And while he's a plus athlete at his position (he stole the catching position's only base in 2014), his offensive profile is more suited for a backup unless it improves. Nevertheless, if the Braves deal Gattis, C-Beth's the guy in 2015. The defense and pitching will see improvement, but Gattis is one of the few plus guys offensively.
David Ross's unsatisfying replacement, Gerald Laird, might attract some interest for a return trip as a mentor if the Braves trade Gattis away or decide that C-Beth's bat simply isn't ready. But I think it's more likely at this point that Laird will be headed elsewhere. He posted a fairly solid season for a backup catcher in 2013 (.739 OPS, .333 wOBA), but his numbers fluctuated the other way in 2014. Still, it's not like he was ever signed for his bat.
Yenier Bello is also an option. The Cuban defector was the oldest hitter in the Carolina League not on a rehab assignment when he finished the year with the Hillcats. Due to visa issues, he only played 15 games in the minors with half of them in the rookie league. As it should be expected for a guy feasting on pitchers 6 to 10 years younger than him, Bello did hit pretty well (.308) in his brief run. Bello wasn't known for his bat while in Cuba before defecting and it might be a bit much to ask for him to jump to the majors and be a capable backup catcher, but he's at least a depth option.
Depth Chart
1. Gattis
2. Bethancourt
The depth chart clearly could look very different by the time the winter is over. If Gattis is traded, the Braves might be forced to at least target a veteran who they would feel at least somewhat comfortable starting a good portion of the season if C-Beth's bat fails to show. If Gattis isn't dealt, the Braves might still target a veteran simply because they would rather C-Beth not spend the year getting a start every week.
There are also the creative options. Gattis could be moved to left field, even if only for a few times a week, to get C-Beth into the lineup and keep Gattis fresh. Or he could be moved there full time if Justin Upton or Jason Heyward is traded. This option, while it would get a better defensive option into the game behind the plate, will also hurt the team in left field and ruin Gattis's real value. Not sure the Braves should really consider this as an option. Gattis would be better suited for an AL-league where he could catch half of the time and DH to keep his bat in the lineup. For Atlanta, he's either the catcher or he isn't and that all depends on whether or not the Braves can find much of an offer for him.
It's debatable how much trade value he truly has, though. To me, it all comes down to the fit. Gattis has a lot of value to us, but his value to a team with a better situation behind the plate would not be strong because Gattis isn't that great of a hitter to DH 155 times and not frustrate a team. Considering he still has four years of team control, including one where he will earn very little, the Braves can't just take the best offer for him if it's not good enough. After all, a better offer may be available after the season. Gattis, like the situation with the corner outfield positions, could tell us a lot about what kind of team John Hart and company attempt to built.
Who we got?... Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Gerald Laird
Who might be coming?... Yenier Bello
Like I was saying, Gattis was productive even though he was limited by both injury and Fredi's often confusing playing schedule that appeared to rest Gattis more than other catchers. Still, he put up numbers resembling his impressive rookie year of 2013. In fact, it was strangely similar. In 2013, he hit 22 homers and walked 22 times. In 2014? 21 moonshots and 21 walks. He was able to do that by walking 5.5% of the time in both seasons. Overall, though, it was a better season. Not limited by bench duty, Gattis posted a .352 OBA which was about a 30 point increase. He also enjoyed a 40 point increase in his BABIP, which we don't know enough to consider sustainable. Regardless, more balls eluding fielders naturally turned into more hits and a better OBP. Despite a limited campaign, Gattis matched McCann's 2.3 fWAR even though the former Brave played in 32 more games.
Gattis has tremendous power for a catcher. Only Devin Mesoraco posted a better ISO than Gattis and Mesoraco plays in a t-ball park. Now, Gattis is not without his issues. Beyond the health questions, his defense leaves something to be desired. His footwork is questionable and his arm doesn't grade highly (-2 rSB). Plus, his pitch framing is a far cry from McCann's quietly awesome work (-1.1 RAA). This looks especially bad compared to Christian Bethancourt, who lacks the quantity of advanced stats, but passes the eye test. C-Beth has a cannon and great footwork. But can he hit? The jury remains out just like it has been since the first day he signed. He has posted just one RC+ over 100 for a full season since his first year in the minors back in 2009. Now, this is slightly unfair because he was often in the midst of a decent offensive season before being promoted up to the chain. His defense has always been deserving of praise and has pushed him up to levels his bat wasn't prepared for. Still, outside of better power over the last two years (ISO's finally climbing over .100), he has shown very little improvement. He still doesn't take walks, though he doesn't K all that much, and is not led by a consistently high BABIP that produces a good batting average. And while he's a plus athlete at his position (he stole the catching position's only base in 2014), his offensive profile is more suited for a backup unless it improves. Nevertheless, if the Braves deal Gattis, C-Beth's the guy in 2015. The defense and pitching will see improvement, but Gattis is one of the few plus guys offensively.
David Ross's unsatisfying replacement, Gerald Laird, might attract some interest for a return trip as a mentor if the Braves trade Gattis away or decide that C-Beth's bat simply isn't ready. But I think it's more likely at this point that Laird will be headed elsewhere. He posted a fairly solid season for a backup catcher in 2013 (.739 OPS, .333 wOBA), but his numbers fluctuated the other way in 2014. Still, it's not like he was ever signed for his bat.
Yenier Bello is also an option. The Cuban defector was the oldest hitter in the Carolina League not on a rehab assignment when he finished the year with the Hillcats. Due to visa issues, he only played 15 games in the minors with half of them in the rookie league. As it should be expected for a guy feasting on pitchers 6 to 10 years younger than him, Bello did hit pretty well (.308) in his brief run. Bello wasn't known for his bat while in Cuba before defecting and it might be a bit much to ask for him to jump to the majors and be a capable backup catcher, but he's at least a depth option.
Depth Chart
1. Gattis
2. Bethancourt
The depth chart clearly could look very different by the time the winter is over. If Gattis is traded, the Braves might be forced to at least target a veteran who they would feel at least somewhat comfortable starting a good portion of the season if C-Beth's bat fails to show. If Gattis isn't dealt, the Braves might still target a veteran simply because they would rather C-Beth not spend the year getting a start every week.
There are also the creative options. Gattis could be moved to left field, even if only for a few times a week, to get C-Beth into the lineup and keep Gattis fresh. Or he could be moved there full time if Justin Upton or Jason Heyward is traded. This option, while it would get a better defensive option into the game behind the plate, will also hurt the team in left field and ruin Gattis's real value. Not sure the Braves should really consider this as an option. Gattis would be better suited for an AL-league where he could catch half of the time and DH to keep his bat in the lineup. For Atlanta, he's either the catcher or he isn't and that all depends on whether or not the Braves can find much of an offer for him.
It's debatable how much trade value he truly has, though. To me, it all comes down to the fit. Gattis has a lot of value to us, but his value to a team with a better situation behind the plate would not be strong because Gattis isn't that great of a hitter to DH 155 times and not frustrate a team. Considering he still has four years of team control, including one where he will earn very little, the Braves can't just take the best offer for him if it's not good enough. After all, a better offer may be available after the season. Gattis, like the situation with the corner outfield positions, could tell us a lot about what kind of team John Hart and company attempt to built.
Monday, November 3, 2014
Guess who's back (back again)
Oddly, I keep coming back to the blogosphere as if it's something I am committed to. I think I just like the idea that my words have meaning. After all, here they are. On the internet and everything. So...yeah.
Been a busy month or so in Atlanta. First, after the Braves were rudely informed that the 2014 playoffs wasn't something they needed to worry themselves with, general manager Frank Wren was fired along with his brother, some jackass assistant GM, and anyone who didn't immediately answer "shitty" to the question, "what kind of person was Wren?"
This was followed by a "exhaustive search" led by John Schuerholz, Robert Joseph Cox, and John Hart. This weeks-long quest scoured the landscape for the right guy who believed in the "Braves Way" and that Fredi Gonzalez was really a idiot savant when it came to baseball. The search truly was a interesting one with rumors of the some of the youngest and brightest minds in the game taking over to lead us all to a new dynasty. Just kidding...as you might know because we at Walk-Off Walk do not break news...a member of the search committee, Hart, was named the President of Baseball Operations because general manager didn't sound important enough. Fast rising GM candidate John Coppolella remains with the organization as the "right-hand guy" because that's far more valuable than a GM. Seriously, why can't we just do things easy?
A slew of moves that brought back many of the scouts that Wren "chased away" preceded Hart being named President Baseball Op, including the return of former Head Scout Roy Clark. This gave the AJC ample opportunity to further bury Wren as the absolute worst human since Bin Laden, which will certainly assist Wren in efforts to find employment.
Not lost in this mess was the news that one of the contentions Wren had with the upper crust in Atlanta was that he wanted to fire Fredi. Like an overbearing mother sticking up for her brat of a son, Bobby Cox came to Fredi's rescue and convinced Schuerholz that Fredi was the right guy in Atlanta. Hard to expect your general manager to do his job effectively when he has no control over who manages the team he puts together. Hart won't concern himself with that, though. He's a Presidente after all, not a lowly general manager.
While the Royals stole our hearts and Fox gave us a broadcasting booth that included both Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds, the Braves settled on their coaching staff that would earn our scorn. They picked up former Royal Kevin Seitzer to be the team's hitting coach for 2015. Seitzer is the kind of guy Fredi wants. Seitzer preached gap-to-gap hitting while avoiding strikeouts. This is good and all except that kind of approach doesn't reflect the team that has been built. Recently, the Braves also hired Jose Castro as the assistant hitting coach. Castro has the kind of common name that OOTP players get very used to seeing in the low minor leagues. Apparently, he's been a hitting coach or minor league coordinator for 20 years or so and was the Cubs' quality assurance coach last season. Pretty sure that was Creed's job on The Office so in my head, Castro = Creed.
So, here we are...the Giants have celebrated (again). The irresponsibly early predictions have named the Nationals champs of next season (again). And the Braves have serious question marks. Ervin Santana is a free agent and will try again to secure a long-term deal. The Braves will place a qualifying offer on him, which might scare off some teams that don't have a safe first round pick. Aaron Harang was a hell of a find last season (ThanksObama Wren), but the Braves probably will wish him the best on his future endeavors, successfully retiring a good number of hilarious memes involving him. Other free agents include Fredi lookalike Gerald Laird, all-around awful Brave Ryan Doumit, a broken (again) Gavin Floyd, and little jitterbug Emilio Bonifacio. Several arbitration cases remain, including Mike Minor, Jordan Walden, David Carpenter, and the trio of also broken (also again) pitchers Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, and Jonny Venters. And that doesn't even get into the $13M that Dan Uggla will get next season, along with a World Series ring for his play in San Fran that ultimately made them accept Joe Panik as their guy at second. You're welcome, Giants.
With all of the money already kinda dished out, trades and more trades seem to be the offseason strategy. Justin Upton and Jason Heyward are both entering the final year of their contracts while Evan Gattis seems to be without a position if Christian Bethancourt is the guy behind the plate next season. Oh...and yeah, there's the whole thing with B.J. Upton...can't forget that. On the plus side...
So, there certainly does remain a good deal to write about and I have several on-going series to wrap up and this offseason seems like a good time to do it. I'm back, kids. Time for the Braves to do some good because apparently, the Nationals are practically unbeatable.
Been a busy month or so in Atlanta. First, after the Braves were rudely informed that the 2014 playoffs wasn't something they needed to worry themselves with, general manager Frank Wren was fired along with his brother, some jackass assistant GM, and anyone who didn't immediately answer "shitty" to the question, "what kind of person was Wren?"
This was followed by a "exhaustive search" led by John Schuerholz, Robert Joseph Cox, and John Hart. This weeks-long quest scoured the landscape for the right guy who believed in the "Braves Way" and that Fredi Gonzalez was really a idiot savant when it came to baseball. The search truly was a interesting one with rumors of the some of the youngest and brightest minds in the game taking over to lead us all to a new dynasty. Just kidding...as you might know because we at Walk-Off Walk do not break news...a member of the search committee, Hart, was named the President of Baseball Operations because general manager didn't sound important enough. Fast rising GM candidate John Coppolella remains with the organization as the "right-hand guy" because that's far more valuable than a GM. Seriously, why can't we just do things easy?
A slew of moves that brought back many of the scouts that Wren "chased away" preceded Hart being named President Baseball Op, including the return of former Head Scout Roy Clark. This gave the AJC ample opportunity to further bury Wren as the absolute worst human since Bin Laden, which will certainly assist Wren in efforts to find employment.
Not lost in this mess was the news that one of the contentions Wren had with the upper crust in Atlanta was that he wanted to fire Fredi. Like an overbearing mother sticking up for her brat of a son, Bobby Cox came to Fredi's rescue and convinced Schuerholz that Fredi was the right guy in Atlanta. Hard to expect your general manager to do his job effectively when he has no control over who manages the team he puts together. Hart won't concern himself with that, though. He's a Presidente after all, not a lowly general manager.
While the Royals stole our hearts and Fox gave us a broadcasting booth that included both Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds, the Braves settled on their coaching staff that would earn our scorn. They picked up former Royal Kevin Seitzer to be the team's hitting coach for 2015. Seitzer is the kind of guy Fredi wants. Seitzer preached gap-to-gap hitting while avoiding strikeouts. This is good and all except that kind of approach doesn't reflect the team that has been built. Recently, the Braves also hired Jose Castro as the assistant hitting coach. Castro has the kind of common name that OOTP players get very used to seeing in the low minor leagues. Apparently, he's been a hitting coach or minor league coordinator for 20 years or so and was the Cubs' quality assurance coach last season. Pretty sure that was Creed's job on The Office so in my head, Castro = Creed.
So, here we are...the Giants have celebrated (again). The irresponsibly early predictions have named the Nationals champs of next season (again). And the Braves have serious question marks. Ervin Santana is a free agent and will try again to secure a long-term deal. The Braves will place a qualifying offer on him, which might scare off some teams that don't have a safe first round pick. Aaron Harang was a hell of a find last season (Thanks
With all of the money already kinda dished out, trades and more trades seem to be the offseason strategy. Justin Upton and Jason Heyward are both entering the final year of their contracts while Evan Gattis seems to be without a position if Christian Bethancourt is the guy behind the plate next season. Oh...and yeah, there's the whole thing with B.J. Upton...can't forget that. On the plus side...
So, there certainly does remain a good deal to write about and I have several on-going series to wrap up and this offseason seems like a good time to do it. I'm back, kids. Time for the Braves to do some good because apparently, the Nationals are practically unbeatable.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Once a Brave, Always a Brave - AL Central (Part 2 of 2)
Last Tuesday, I began to look at the AL Central and its ex-Braves ties. The article kind of ballooned on me due to some interesting stories so I cut the article basically in half and held releasing it all until today. Hope you guys enjoy.
Kansas City Royals
P Francisley Bueno - A childhood friend of former Braves Yunel Escobar and Brayan Pena, the Braves inked the Cuban defector in 2006. Two years later, the left-hander got into a game with the big league club against the Cubs. In the first game of double header, Bueno entered with the Braves already down 8-2. In the second inning of his outing, Bueno gave up a single to Alfonso Soriano. It went a little deeper as Soriano hit the ball high toward left and started to celebrate what he thought would be a homer. An inning later and two batters after Bueno gave up a two-run homer, Bueno threw a ball behind Soriano's head, earning an ejection and eventual suspension. However, Bueno was demoted before he could serve the demotion. After a year playing in the Korean and Mexican Leagues, Bueno landed in KC and has been on the Omaha/KC commute the last three years.
P Bruce Chen - It's been nearly 21 years since the Braves signed Chen to his first professional contract. Almost 37 now, Chen has thrown a shade under 1500 innings in the majors, including almost 700 of those innings with the Royals over the last six seasons. But getting to the Royals was a journey. After being unable to establish himself, the Braves traded the Panamanian left-hander to the Phillies for Andy Ashby. Eight different franchises gave Chen a chance between the Phillies and Royals, but once he got to KC, he became a fixture for the Royals in their rotation, throwing his first shutout and picking up his first professional save. Currently on the DL with back issues, Chen has made over $20M during his long and crazy journey through the bigs.
P Tim Collins - After spending just two weeks in the Braves organization, Collins was moved to the Royals at the deadline in 2010 and has found a home in KC, though his career WHIP of 1.41 won't impress anyone. Collins had been acquired from the Blue Jays along with Tyler Pastornicky in the Yunel Escobar trade.
C Max Ramirez - Recently brought back after the Reds organization cut bait, Max has been around for sometime since being a hot hitting prospect in the Braves organization. His time with the Braves was minimal and he was sent to the Indians in his third professional season in a trade that brought Bob Wickman to the Braves in 2006. The next trade deadline, he was shifted to the Rangers for former Brave Kenny Lofton and got to the majors in 2008 for a 17-game run. Two years later, he played in 28 games with the Rangers. Outside of that, he has been a fixture in AAA.
2B Omar Infante - The super utility player spent three years in Atlanta between 2008 and 2010, slashing .309/.353/.411. That production culminated in his 2010 season where he OPS'd .775 in 506 PA, which included a trip to the All-Stat Game. After the season, the Braves packaged Infante in a deal to the Marlins that brought Dan Uggla to Atlanta. Infante quickly moved on to the Tigers after the woeful Marlins spent heavy and failed. He struggled to stay healthy last year, but was highly productive for the Tigers, including a career-best .795 OPS. He signed a four-year deal that would take him through his mid-30's with the Royals. This season has been a disappointment so far and he spent time on the DL after a Heath Bell pitch struck him in the face.
Minnesota Twins
P Scott Diamond (AAA) - In the winter of 2010, the Twins selected Diamond in the Rule 5 draft. Some that report extensively on the Braves minor leagues were disappointed that Diamond was left unprotected after the 23 year-old had reached Gwinnett the previous season. Since selected, Diamond has spent the last four years with the Twins and the control artist turned in a very good 2012 season where he led the AL in fewest walks per nine innings. However, he struggled badly last year and has been even worse this season in Rochester.
P Sean Gilmartin (AA) - Selected with Atlanta's first selection in the 2011 draft, Gilmartin was expected to have a high floor, but a low ceiling. So far, that appears to be right. Gilmartin made it to Gwinnett to end 2012 and entered the following spring training as the only real competition Julio Teheran would face. Well, Teheran blew him out of the water and Gilmartin struggled with both his health and ability to get outs. After the season, the Braves sent him to Minnesota in exchange for Ryan Doumit, essentially saying that other young pitchers had moved ahead of him and they believed Gilmartin was not going to ever be more than a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. While Gilmartin has been successful this season, his achievements have been muted by pitching back at AA.
OF Wilkin Ramirez (AAA) - A former rising prospect in the Tigers organization with five-tool potential, Ramirez first made it to the majors as a 23 year-old in 2009 for Detroit. The Braves added him at the trading deadline the following season by buying him from the Tigers. He would post a .766 OPS for Gwinnett in 2011 and also got to the majors for the Braves for twenty games in mostly bench action. Atlanta let him go following season and he has landed in Minnesota over the last three seasons, including a 35 game stint in 2013.
Kansas City Royals
P Francisley Bueno - A childhood friend of former Braves Yunel Escobar and Brayan Pena, the Braves inked the Cuban defector in 2006. Two years later, the left-hander got into a game with the big league club against the Cubs. In the first game of double header, Bueno entered with the Braves already down 8-2. In the second inning of his outing, Bueno gave up a single to Alfonso Soriano. It went a little deeper as Soriano hit the ball high toward left and started to celebrate what he thought would be a homer. An inning later and two batters after Bueno gave up a two-run homer, Bueno threw a ball behind Soriano's head, earning an ejection and eventual suspension. However, Bueno was demoted before he could serve the demotion. After a year playing in the Korean and Mexican Leagues, Bueno landed in KC and has been on the Omaha/KC commute the last three years.
P Bruce Chen - It's been nearly 21 years since the Braves signed Chen to his first professional contract. Almost 37 now, Chen has thrown a shade under 1500 innings in the majors, including almost 700 of those innings with the Royals over the last six seasons. But getting to the Royals was a journey. After being unable to establish himself, the Braves traded the Panamanian left-hander to the Phillies for Andy Ashby. Eight different franchises gave Chen a chance between the Phillies and Royals, but once he got to KC, he became a fixture for the Royals in their rotation, throwing his first shutout and picking up his first professional save. Currently on the DL with back issues, Chen has made over $20M during his long and crazy journey through the bigs.
P Tim Collins - After spending just two weeks in the Braves organization, Collins was moved to the Royals at the deadline in 2010 and has found a home in KC, though his career WHIP of 1.41 won't impress anyone. Collins had been acquired from the Blue Jays along with Tyler Pastornicky in the Yunel Escobar trade.
C Max Ramirez - Recently brought back after the Reds organization cut bait, Max has been around for sometime since being a hot hitting prospect in the Braves organization. His time with the Braves was minimal and he was sent to the Indians in his third professional season in a trade that brought Bob Wickman to the Braves in 2006. The next trade deadline, he was shifted to the Rangers for former Brave Kenny Lofton and got to the majors in 2008 for a 17-game run. Two years later, he played in 28 games with the Rangers. Outside of that, he has been a fixture in AAA.
2B Omar Infante - The super utility player spent three years in Atlanta between 2008 and 2010, slashing .309/.353/.411. That production culminated in his 2010 season where he OPS'd .775 in 506 PA, which included a trip to the All-Stat Game. After the season, the Braves packaged Infante in a deal to the Marlins that brought Dan Uggla to Atlanta. Infante quickly moved on to the Tigers after the woeful Marlins spent heavy and failed. He struggled to stay healthy last year, but was highly productive for the Tigers, including a career-best .795 OPS. He signed a four-year deal that would take him through his mid-30's with the Royals. This season has been a disappointment so far and he spent time on the DL after a Heath Bell pitch struck him in the face.
Minnesota Twins
P Scott Diamond (AAA) - In the winter of 2010, the Twins selected Diamond in the Rule 5 draft. Some that report extensively on the Braves minor leagues were disappointed that Diamond was left unprotected after the 23 year-old had reached Gwinnett the previous season. Since selected, Diamond has spent the last four years with the Twins and the control artist turned in a very good 2012 season where he led the AL in fewest walks per nine innings. However, he struggled badly last year and has been even worse this season in Rochester.
P Sean Gilmartin (AA) - Selected with Atlanta's first selection in the 2011 draft, Gilmartin was expected to have a high floor, but a low ceiling. So far, that appears to be right. Gilmartin made it to Gwinnett to end 2012 and entered the following spring training as the only real competition Julio Teheran would face. Well, Teheran blew him out of the water and Gilmartin struggled with both his health and ability to get outs. After the season, the Braves sent him to Minnesota in exchange for Ryan Doumit, essentially saying that other young pitchers had moved ahead of him and they believed Gilmartin was not going to ever be more than a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. While Gilmartin has been successful this season, his achievements have been muted by pitching back at AA.
OF Wilkin Ramirez (AAA) - A former rising prospect in the Tigers organization with five-tool potential, Ramirez first made it to the majors as a 23 year-old in 2009 for Detroit. The Braves added him at the trading deadline the following season by buying him from the Tigers. He would post a .766 OPS for Gwinnett in 2011 and also got to the majors for the Braves for twenty games in mostly bench action. Atlanta let him go following season and he has landed in Minnesota over the last three seasons, including a 35 game stint in 2013.
Monday, June 16, 2014
Seriously, bat La Stella higher
The ridiculous numbers are too much to ignore. In 16 games since his callup, Tommy La Stella has 23 hits, three more than Dan Uggla has had all season. La Stella's seven walks are just two fewer than Uggla despite Uggla having a shade over double the amount of plate appearances Uggla has had this season. Uggla has four multi-hit games, all in April, where he managed two hits in each game. La Stella has nine multi-hit games, or two more games than he has had less than two hits since this season.
It goes beyond that, of course. La Stella already has more hits this season than Ramiro Pena or Gerald Laird and has just one fewer hit than Ryan Doumit and Jordan Schafer combined. La Stella has one more walk than Chris Johnson. In the month of June, only Evan Gattis has been more productive on the team.
We can spend all day doing this, really we can. But ultimately, this boils down to the continued misuse of La Stella's ability. Right now, La Stella is not doing anything he also didn't do in the minors except hit for a little less pop and get seriously bailed out by a ridiculously high .451 BABIP. That will fall and La Stella won't hit .411 for the season, but he's shown he has a capable bat at this level and the on-base skills have been as advertised. To not bat him in the top two is ridiculous. Clearly, the guy we were hoping La Stella could be is the one that called up.
To me, the simple answer is to bat him second behind Jason Heyward and drop B.J. Upton in the lineup. I understand if Upton would feel rejected by such a move. He's hit .221 in the second spot and been as productive as he's been in his entire run with the Braves, but a .300 OBP in the two-spot is hardly getting the results the Braves need. Of course, you'll likely make another lineup change to avoid three lefties in a row. A few days ago, I went over the lineup I would like to see. One doesn't need to go to such an extreme, but the point is to maximize your offensive production and La Stella getting on base ahead of bottom of the lineup isn't going to do that.
Yes, La Stella is bound to regress to some degree. However, to continue to bat him seventh would be wasting his skills. Hopefully, when today's lineup is posted, this mistake will be righted.
It goes beyond that, of course. La Stella already has more hits this season than Ramiro Pena or Gerald Laird and has just one fewer hit than Ryan Doumit and Jordan Schafer combined. La Stella has one more walk than Chris Johnson. In the month of June, only Evan Gattis has been more productive on the team.
We can spend all day doing this, really we can. But ultimately, this boils down to the continued misuse of La Stella's ability. Right now, La Stella is not doing anything he also didn't do in the minors except hit for a little less pop and get seriously bailed out by a ridiculously high .451 BABIP. That will fall and La Stella won't hit .411 for the season, but he's shown he has a capable bat at this level and the on-base skills have been as advertised. To not bat him in the top two is ridiculous. Clearly, the guy we were hoping La Stella could be is the one that called up.
To me, the simple answer is to bat him second behind Jason Heyward and drop B.J. Upton in the lineup. I understand if Upton would feel rejected by such a move. He's hit .221 in the second spot and been as productive as he's been in his entire run with the Braves, but a .300 OBP in the two-spot is hardly getting the results the Braves need. Of course, you'll likely make another lineup change to avoid three lefties in a row. A few days ago, I went over the lineup I would like to see. One doesn't need to go to such an extreme, but the point is to maximize your offensive production and La Stella getting on base ahead of bottom of the lineup isn't going to do that.
Yes, La Stella is bound to regress to some degree. However, to continue to bat him seventh would be wasting his skills. Hopefully, when today's lineup is posted, this mistake will be righted.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Brian McWho?
Before the 2013 season, the Braves has some concerns with their backstop position. Quality backup David Ross had become too expensive to retain and the Braves went for Gerald Laird. While a good player in his own right, Laird was not expected to replace Rossy's considerable production while the latter played in Atlanta.
More pressing was the contract situation of Brian McCann. Since the summer of 2005 when McCann was called up to replace Johnny Estrada behind the plate, McCann had manned the position with All-Star level production while being the NL equivalent to Joe Mauer as the best catcher in the league. However, McCann was going to be a free agent after 2013 and had off-season shoulder surgery after a career-worst .230/.300/.399 slash in 2012. Just 29 years-old, the Braves weren't sure if McCann was entering his final season with the Braves, or so the narrative went. Many, like myself, were already confident that McCann was headed elsewhere for the 2014 season.
In addition to the issues with McCann and the defection of Ross, the Braves had a pair of catchers in the minors they were keeping an eye on. The Braves had acted to protect Christian Bethancourt from the Rule 5 draft by placing him on the 40-man roster even with the considerable questions about Bethancourt's bat. He had OPS'd .566 with the Mississippi Braves in an injury-shortened 2012. Yet, his defense continued to be remarkable and the Braves were confident someone would grab Bethancourt even if that team would play him off the bench for a year before sending him to the minors if he needed more seasoning.
The other player was as nontraditional as they come. Bethancourt entered 2013 as a 21 year-old prospect. Evan Gattis was a 26 year-old question mark. The Braves had no idea what they really had with Gattis. The previous year's spring training put Gattis in the minds of the Braves. Ross had called him "a beast, a man-child." He had sent fastballs from Craig Kimbrel into the stratosphere. But the Braves have seen this script before. In the 2001 spring training, a utility player out of New Zealand named Travis Wilson hit over .400 while Bobby Cox talked about the "special sound" that came off his bat. Like Gattis, Wilson had been in A-ball the previous season. However, he was sent back to the minors because of a number crunch. In his eight years of professional ball, Wilson never came close to a major league callup outside of the 2001 spring training.
Gattis had followed up the 2012 spring training by hitting .305 with a .995 OPS in an injury-shortened season where he spent 47 games in Mississippi. After the season, he slugged .591 in Venezuela, tying for the league lead with 16 HR in 195 at-bats. Notably, Gattis had 50 less at-bats than either of the other league leaders in homers. Of course, he also earned a new nickname. "El Oso Blanco."
Despite his 2012 accolades, Gattis was not expected to start 2013 with the Braves. While he had played 30 games in left field the previous season and also played seven games at first in 2010, he was still a catcher on a team that already had McCann and Laird. However, McCann would miss the start of the season, opening the door for Gattis who stepped the hell through it. He pummeled the National League last April, following up a productive spring, and even when McCann returned, Gattis stayed. He got shots at first base and left, though his defensive issues were glaring. His bat kept producing, though. He slugged .480 with 21 homers, becoming a dangerous late-inning weapon against opposing relievers as Gattis hit four homers in just 13 PA while pinch hitting. By the end of the season, with B.J. Upton's ineptitude, the Braves began to start Gattis nightly in left field and defensively, it was ugly. He still OPS'd .780 in the year's final month, giving the Braves a possible glimpse of what it would be like to have Gattis in the lineup every night.
After the playoff disappointment in Los Angeles, the Braves were convinced that McCann's time with the Braves was finished and he got the message, signing with the Yankees last winter. While the Braves would hedge their bets by getting Ryan Doumit, they were banking on Gattis for 2014.
So far, the results favor Atlanta and it's not all that close. While McCann has struggled in every offensive category, Gattis has proved a lot of doubters wrong. While he doesn't have enough plate appearances to rank in many of fangraphs statistics entering Wednesday's action, lowering the minimum to 180 PA (11 qualified catchers becomes 16), Gattis ranks, among catchers, second in fWAR, first in homers (by five), holds over a hundred point lead in ISO, and is second in wOBA and wRC+. While we can sit here and talk about his hacktastic approach, lack of walks, and utter "man-child" hitting profile, the results are enough to accept Gattis for who he is.
McCann did what was right for him. He headed to New York for millions. Of 16 catchers with at least 180 PA, he ranked third from the bottom in fWAR.
It's a long season and the comparison is unfair for a few reasons, most notably because the Braves didn't make a choice between Gattis and McCann since the latter was ruled out. Nevertheless, when McCann signed with the Bronx Bombers, a lot of people felt like the Braves would end up regretting letting yet another homegrown star go. So far...so good.
More pressing was the contract situation of Brian McCann. Since the summer of 2005 when McCann was called up to replace Johnny Estrada behind the plate, McCann had manned the position with All-Star level production while being the NL equivalent to Joe Mauer as the best catcher in the league. However, McCann was going to be a free agent after 2013 and had off-season shoulder surgery after a career-worst .230/.300/.399 slash in 2012. Just 29 years-old, the Braves weren't sure if McCann was entering his final season with the Braves, or so the narrative went. Many, like myself, were already confident that McCann was headed elsewhere for the 2014 season.
In addition to the issues with McCann and the defection of Ross, the Braves had a pair of catchers in the minors they were keeping an eye on. The Braves had acted to protect Christian Bethancourt from the Rule 5 draft by placing him on the 40-man roster even with the considerable questions about Bethancourt's bat. He had OPS'd .566 with the Mississippi Braves in an injury-shortened 2012. Yet, his defense continued to be remarkable and the Braves were confident someone would grab Bethancourt even if that team would play him off the bench for a year before sending him to the minors if he needed more seasoning.
The other player was as nontraditional as they come. Bethancourt entered 2013 as a 21 year-old prospect. Evan Gattis was a 26 year-old question mark. The Braves had no idea what they really had with Gattis. The previous year's spring training put Gattis in the minds of the Braves. Ross had called him "a beast, a man-child." He had sent fastballs from Craig Kimbrel into the stratosphere. But the Braves have seen this script before. In the 2001 spring training, a utility player out of New Zealand named Travis Wilson hit over .400 while Bobby Cox talked about the "special sound" that came off his bat. Like Gattis, Wilson had been in A-ball the previous season. However, he was sent back to the minors because of a number crunch. In his eight years of professional ball, Wilson never came close to a major league callup outside of the 2001 spring training.
Gattis had followed up the 2012 spring training by hitting .305 with a .995 OPS in an injury-shortened season where he spent 47 games in Mississippi. After the season, he slugged .591 in Venezuela, tying for the league lead with 16 HR in 195 at-bats. Notably, Gattis had 50 less at-bats than either of the other league leaders in homers. Of course, he also earned a new nickname. "El Oso Blanco."
Despite his 2012 accolades, Gattis was not expected to start 2013 with the Braves. While he had played 30 games in left field the previous season and also played seven games at first in 2010, he was still a catcher on a team that already had McCann and Laird. However, McCann would miss the start of the season, opening the door for Gattis who stepped the hell through it. He pummeled the National League last April, following up a productive spring, and even when McCann returned, Gattis stayed. He got shots at first base and left, though his defensive issues were glaring. His bat kept producing, though. He slugged .480 with 21 homers, becoming a dangerous late-inning weapon against opposing relievers as Gattis hit four homers in just 13 PA while pinch hitting. By the end of the season, with B.J. Upton's ineptitude, the Braves began to start Gattis nightly in left field and defensively, it was ugly. He still OPS'd .780 in the year's final month, giving the Braves a possible glimpse of what it would be like to have Gattis in the lineup every night.
After the playoff disappointment in Los Angeles, the Braves were convinced that McCann's time with the Braves was finished and he got the message, signing with the Yankees last winter. While the Braves would hedge their bets by getting Ryan Doumit, they were banking on Gattis for 2014.
So far, the results favor Atlanta and it's not all that close. While McCann has struggled in every offensive category, Gattis has proved a lot of doubters wrong. While he doesn't have enough plate appearances to rank in many of fangraphs statistics entering Wednesday's action, lowering the minimum to 180 PA (11 qualified catchers becomes 16), Gattis ranks, among catchers, second in fWAR, first in homers (by five), holds over a hundred point lead in ISO, and is second in wOBA and wRC+. While we can sit here and talk about his hacktastic approach, lack of walks, and utter "man-child" hitting profile, the results are enough to accept Gattis for who he is.
McCann did what was right for him. He headed to New York for millions. Of 16 catchers with at least 180 PA, he ranked third from the bottom in fWAR.
It's a long season and the comparison is unfair for a few reasons, most notably because the Braves didn't make a choice between Gattis and McCann since the latter was ruled out. Nevertheless, when McCann signed with the Bronx Bombers, a lot of people felt like the Braves would end up regretting letting yet another homegrown star go. So far...so good.
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