How are the guys the Braves got rid of are doing?

Since the end of the 2016 season, the Braves have finalized nine trades while losing a few players via waivers. With roughly half of the season already finished, I wanted to look back at the players the team gave up and how they are doing in their new surroundings. Do the Braves miss them or do they miss the Braves more?

November 2, 2016
Ryan Weber selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Before the 2016 World Series ended later that night, the Braves lost a right-hander who had made 21 appearances and seven starts with them over the previous two seasons. Weber was always a non-prospect - a guy with AAAA stuff and more guts than talent. He opened this year with 31.2 dominant frames in Triple-A for Tacoma before earning a callup. He was doing alright (3 H, 1 ER) through 3.2 innings, but left the game with a biceps injury. Actually, to be more specific, a "stretch of the musculocutaneous nerve." That sounds painful. He's been sidelined for a month-and-a-half and I have yet to see word on a return.

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November 28, 2016
Traded Max Povse and Robert Whalen to the Seattle Mariners. Received a player to be named later and Alex Jackson (minors). The Seattle Mariners sent Tyler Pike (minors) (December 9, 2016) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.

-The Mariners are a common theme in this little update. Povse returned to Double-A to begin this season after eleven solid starts in the Southern League. He was less impressive in the Texas League, though, and his walks were "sky-high" relative to his usual pinpoint location. After 39 innings (he missed nearly a month on the DL), Povse was brought to the majors two weeks ago. His first outing out of the pen was horrid, but he threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Angels. Meanwhile, Whalen, who made five starts with the big league club last year, has been a bag of awful this season. In 48.1 innings in the hard-hitting PCL, he has a 6.33 ERA. In five of his nine starts, he's given up at least four earned runs. Mixed in there are two spot appearances in the majors, including a start. He was dinged up for five runs in a late May loss to the Red Sox and went two scoreless innings in mid-June out of the pen against the Rangers. He's back in Triple-A and will look to end a streak of five consecutive starts with allowing at least one homerun the next time out.

December 1, 2016
Traded Luke Dykstra (minors), Chris Ellis (minors) and John Gant to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Jaime Garcia.

-Some bemoaned the loss of Dykstra despite the fact that Dykstra found a way to hit over .300 last year in more than 340 PA with a sub-.700 OPS and less than ten steals. I mention all of that because since 1901, only five people were able to do that in the majors and the last time it happened was 1943 with Doc Cramer. This season, Dykstra has been terrible for Palm Beach in the Florida State League, playing against many of his former teammates on the Fire Frogs. Ellis, who spent only one year in the organization after coming over with Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade, has been woeful as well while splitting time between Memphis and Springfield. His ERA is only under 7.00 because his work at Springfield is less-awful. John Gant opened the year on the DL and has only made eight appearances on the year. In seven starts in Memphis, he's been pretty decent. Not great, but compared to the other guys the Cardinals got for Garcia, Gant's been amazing. He's also appeared once out of the bullpen for the Cardinals. he gave up two solo homers in 3.1 ING.

December 8, 2016
Traded Brady Feigl (minors) and Tyrell Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Received Luke Jackson.

-A Spring Training arm that nearly made the team in 2015 before needing Tommy John surgery, Feigl made six appearances last year in the rookie leagues as part of his rehab. This season, he has pitched 22 times - mostly in the Carolina League - with mixed success. The strikeout numbers are solid and the control is magnificent, but when he's not missing bats, players are finding holes. He's also been miserable once promoted to Frisco to begin June. Jenkins didn't last long in the Rangers' system. A few weeks later, they lost him on waivers to the Reds and he spent about as much time in their system before the Padres got him off waivers. One of last year's fan favorites has been just bad with El Paso in the PCL. He gave up 14 homers last year between Triple-A and the majors. He's surrendered 16 already this year in just as many starts. His strikeout-to-walk rate is nearly 1.

January 11, 2017
Traded Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith to the Seattle Mariners. Received Thomas Burrows (minors) and Luiz Gohara (minors).

-Losing Simmons made me sad as I had been a quick fan of his in 2014. He made it back to the majors for seven games last year and was a potential x-factor for this year's bullpen before the trade. However, the prospect of acquiring Gohara was too great. Unfortunately, Simmons has been DL'd the whole season with a right flexor strain. The last I heard, he was throwing again, but has yet to start a rehab assignment and likely won't be in the mix until late July at the earliest. Smith spent a few hours in the Mariners' system before being packaged in a deal for Tampa's Drew Smyly. He's spent much of the year in the minors or on the DL, but when he's been in the majors, Smith has been pretty successful. With Kevin Kiermaier out for much of the foreseeable future, center field belongs to Smith, who's OBP is roughly 70 points higher than it was last year with the Braves. His stolen base percentage continues to need work (9-of-13), but he's been a nice fit in Tampa and one of the few ex-Braves on this list to look better than he did with the Braves.

January 13, 2017
Traded player to be named or cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Micah Johnson.

-The real winner of this deal was the Braves' fans who now know who Johnson is and follow him on Twitter.

January 26, 2017
Tuffy Gosewisch selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Jesus, the Mariners love ex-Braves - even those that never suit up for Atlanta. Earlier in the offseason, Gosewisch had been picked up off waivers from the D'Backs to compete with Anthony Recker. That didn't happen as the Braves signed Kurt Suzuki and DFA'd Gosewisch. He's been around his career norms in 41 games in Triple-A for the Mariners. He also spent a few weeks in the majors where he went just 2-for-28 with 14 K's. Ouchie.

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February 12, 2017
Traded Carlos Portuondo (minors) and Andrew McKirahan to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Brandon Phillips.

-Not included here was the $13M the Reds sent to pay for Phillips contract, leaving the Braves on the hook for just a million bucks. McKirahan was a former Rule 5 pick who spent too much of his rookie season on the inactive list after being suspended for PED. He then spent 2016 on the mend after a second Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this season and has spent some of his time on Twitter railing against vaccines. As for Portuondo, a Cuban-born right-hander, he pitched once and was released. Man, the Reds really wanted to get rid of Brandon Phillips.

March 6, 2017
Christian Walker selected by the Cincinnati Reds off waivers.

-The Braves were the second-of-four teams to get a look at Walker this spring. He started with the Orioles, the team that drafted him and originally promoted him to the majors in both 2014 and 2015. In late February, the Braves claimed him only to lose him two weeks later to the Reds. In late March, he was again on the move - this time to the Diamondbacks. He's bashed the PCL since with a slugging percentage well over .550. He's played mostly first, though he made a cameo at third and also logged a bit of time in left field. Because of how bad the Braves' bench has been - especially early - this one kind of hurts.

April 24, 2017
Traded David Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received player to be named or cash.

-You don't want to read about this. David Hernandez has been excellent for the Angels. Absolutely filthy. He's picked up over a K an inning, walked nearly nobody, and his FIP is absurdly in the 1.50-range. He's not this good, but he's definitely pitching like he is and the Braves are wondering why they just didn't bring him to the majors after all.

April 27, 2017
Chase d'Arnaud selected by the Boston Red Sox off waivers.

-There were people who were upset about this. I like to call these people the ones who are easily convinced by a month of success. D'Arnaud looked good briefly last year, but ended with a .245/.317/.335 split. His biggest value came from being able to play multiple positions and swipe a few bases. The Braves already had Emilio Bonifacio for that! (Too soon?) Cutting d'Arnaud, in late April, the utility player landed in Boston. After a month in their organization, he was waived and went to the Padres. He's been straight up awful with the bat and has played a little too often at shortstop, but when you're the Padres and you have Erick Aybar, that's to be expected.

May 8, 2017
Traded Kevin Chapman and cash to the Minnesota Twins. Received Danny Santana.

-Santana has had a few hits here-and-there but he's basically been the same guy who disappointed with the Twins last year. Meanwhile, Chapman, who the Braves added on waivers near the end of spring training, spent about a month in the Twins' organization for their International League club in Rochester. He gave up seven earned runs in 11.1 ING, which was actually an improvement over his time with Gwinnett. He was released a little more than a month after the trade.

May 20, 2017
Purchased Enrique Burgos from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Traded Juan Yepez (minors) to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Matt Adams and cash.

-Burgos has been lights-out with Gwinnett and Adams hasn't been so bad either, but this article is about the players who the Braves gave up. Yepez hit .275/.309/.387 with a homer over 36 games with Rome before the trade. He left the SALLY League and landed in the Midwest League with Peoria. The two leagues are nearly identical in offensive production and while Dozer Park is a bit more homer-friendly than State Mutual Stadium, it's not exactly a big homerun park. Still, Yepez has bashed five homers since the trade, one fewer than he hit during 121 games in the Braves' organization. That said, he's still struggled to the tune of a .298 OBP.

Overall, outside of Mallex Smith - who doesn't have a place in Atlanta - and David Hernandez (sniff), the Braves haven't seen much success this season by the players they traded or waived. Some of that is luck, but a good deal of it is talent evaluation and coaching - something the Braves excel with at the minor league level.

Random Prospect Sunday - Chad Sobotka

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In what would become Frank Wren's final draft with the Atlanta Braves, the team went pitcher-heavy early with college arms. They took the freakishly tall Max Povse in the third round and in the fifth round, landed productive Miami Hurricanes lefty Chris Diaz. Between those picks, with the 133rd overall selection, the Braves went with a righty from the small University of South Carolina Upstate, Chad Sobotka. A year later, the Braves would make a similar selection - though with much higher expectations - when they picked A.J. Minter. Both pitchers were coming off significant injuries, but each had the potential to be big bullpen players for future Braves' teams.

Born July 10, 1993, Sobotka was raised in Sarasota, Florida, where he attended Riverview High School. After not receiving much of a look coming out of high school, he landed with the Spartans under Matt Fincher. The righty quickly impressed with plus-velocity and a pretty good idea of where the ball was headed - especially for a freshman - and became the team's closer. In 25 games, the youngest pitcher on the team notched 12 saves with a 1.74 ERA and over a strikeout an inning. The following season wasn't as impressive as he ran into a few control issues, but he still saved seven more games. That may not seem like a lot, but after just two years on campus, Sobotka was one save away from tying the school record.

After his sophomore season, Sobotka went to the Cape Cod League and impressed scouts with his power. He returned to campus with hopes for another big year and possibly a saves record, but a stress fracture in his back put him on the mend. He would miss his entire junior season. That didn't stop the Braves from using the 133rd overall pick on him, though, and unlike many Wren-era picks, this was not a safe selection nor a pick the Braves failed to get good value on. The injury concerns alone were an issue for the Braves, but the value on drafting Sobotka was solid with Baseball America attached a 115th overall ranking for the righty while Keith Law ranked him the 66th best prospect coming into the draft. Sobotka remains the highest-selected player from South Carolina Upstate.

Sobotka would only rehab during his first professional season. When 2015 hit, the then-21 year-old opened the season in Rome. He was given extensive work as a starter with little success. The belief among fans wasn't that the Braves felt Sobotka was a starting prospect, but were trying to give him innings in an easy-to-regulate manner. His first taste of professional ball was interrupted twice by DL stints - one two games into the season and the other coming in mid-June. That one put him on the shelf for two months. Overall, including three rehab games with GCL and Danville, Sobotka's first season was a disappointment. He appeared 15 times with a 6.32 ERA with as many walks as strikeouts (22).

But that wasn't disheartening. After all, Sobotka was able to stay healthy enough to log 37 innings. That was 37 more than the previous year. When 2016 came, Sobotka was given a return assignment with Rome. The season got off to a rough start as he left his first outing after just three batters with an injury that would keep him out a month. Returning in May, his put up seven consecutive scoreless appearances and ten innings in total before getting off to a poor start in June. He was able to turn the corner for a pair of outings in the final few days of the month where he K'd 5 batters in three innings. He earned his promotion to Carolina where he would pitch wonderfully. He had one iffy game in which he gave up three runs, but outside of that, he was nearly untouchable. His control, which wavered from time-to-time in Rome, was spot-on in Carolina (three walks in 17.2 ING). He even clinched his first three professional saves and after two months in Carolina, Sobotka was promoted to Mississippi. He pitched twice there with a pair of perfect frames and stayed with the team for the playoff run, where he tossed 5.1 scoreless innings.

A lot was hoped for in regards to Sobotka as 2017 opened. He was one of many relief arms looking to open some eyes and push their way into the major league picture, but this season just hasn't gone his way. He's been scored on in just over half of his 18 appearances with Mississippi and over his final eleven games in Double-A, things got really bad. He allowed 17 runs in 16.2 innings with more walks (12) than strikeouts). His last three were especially ugly. He retired just nine batters while allowing seven runs to score. His struggles came to a head on Friday when he was demoted to Florida. His first outing there was a good one. He gave up a single, but struck out two over one inning.

Sobotka throws out of a high 3/4's delivery and definitely has the velocity to be a power reliever with a mid-90's heat. He throws both a two-seam and four-seam fastball with the latter allowing him to uncover some added velocity and the ability to pitch up-in-the-zone. However, his bread-and-butter is a two-seam fastball that while it doesn't have a lot of movement on it, because of his height (6'6") and high release, the ball has the impression of some good sink on it. The slider, which is featured on the GIF to the side from a game a week ago, seems to drop off the cliff as it reaches the batter when he's on. When he's not, it gets very flat. Sobotka also has a changeup from his starter days, but most of the time, he's humming fastballs into the zone to set up the slider.

The big righty lacks the press that his current teammate A.J. Minter has. Both had similar beginnings with the Braves, but Minter has higher grades. Just the same, Sobotka has a good chance to rise in this system. He's got the arsenal to develop into a high-leverage reliever. All it will come down to is consistency in his delivery, trusting his stuff, and maybe most importantly - staying on the mound. If he can do that, he'll be back on track and moving up the system.

More Random Prospects
Randy Venutura (6/4/17)
Evan Phillips (5/28/17)
Kevin Josephina (5/14/17)

Reviewing My 2015 Top 30 Prospects (Part 1 of 3)

Recently, I released the first ten players who made this year's Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects. Of course, the Braves followed by adding two more prospects to the mix, but I forgive them. As I originally said about my prospect list, releasing these lists is a mix of talent, results, and hope. The hope comes in big when you look back at a list in a few years. Projection is one thing, but can they take the next step?

With that in mind, I thought it might be fun to look back at a prospect list. In 2015, I released a Top 30 in a similar ten prospects at a time method that I am doing this year. Let's take a look at the 2015's #21-30 prospects as graded and ranked by yours truly. Hope I did well.

30. Victor Reyes, OF, Grade: C....One of the last big international splurges for the Frank Wren era, Reyes is a switch-hitter who would be traded less than a month after I released the list to the Diamondbacks. In exchange, the Braves took on most of Trevor Cahill's salary. They also received the #75th overall pick of the 2015 draft, which was used to draft talented lefty A.J. Minter. Reyes has been productive since the trade, hitting a comebined .307 over the last two years. However, the power projections have yet to happen for the 22 year-old, who had a .113 ISO in the hitter-friendly California League last year. Still, not a bad start to the list.

29. Wes Parsons, P, Grade: C....At the time, others ranked Parsons higher than me. He was coming off a 23-start campaign with Lynchburg in which he struggled with a 5.02 ERA. None of us, however, could foresee the troubles Parsons would have the next two years due to injuries, which have limited him to 86.1 innings. Parsons still made my 2016 Top 50, but didn't make this year's list as he tries to jumpstart his career this spring.

28. Max Povse, P, Grade: C....In March of 2015, I called Povse "a sleeper in this system" and said "I like his chances a lot." Well, he turned into that sleeper with back-to-back productive seasons where he displayed great control, a tendency to induce many groundballs, and the ability to be a workhorse. In November, he was dealt to the Mariners in the Alex Jackson deal.

27. Shae Simmons, P, Grade: C....When I ranked him in March of 2015, he had just been given the news that he was destined for Tommy John surgery. It took him well over a year to get back to the Braves. Recently, he was sent packing to the Mariners to join Povse.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

26. Williams Perez, P, Grade: C....The Braves liked Perez probably more than they should have. Surprisingly kept over a bigger prospect like J.R. Graham, Perez was a groundball artist who relied on location. In Atlanta, the location was often not as spot-on as it had to be. A month ago, he was released on the final day of the winter meetings so the Braves could open up a 40-man roster spot and draft Armando Rivero in the Rule 5 draft. He's been on the market ever since.

25. Tanner Murphy, C, Grade: C....At the time, Murphy was receiving some high marks for his defense and on-base skills. I was quickly a fan, but his bat has become an even bigger liability and his defense has received some poor reports since 2014. Like Parsons, Murphy made my Top 50 last year, but fell off this year.

24. Dilmer Mejia, P, Grade: C....Before the Braves began to acquire every left-handed pitching prospect on the planet, Mejia was a hyped teenager in rookie ball who looked like he might be a force to reckon with. Injuries have sapped some of the hype, but he still made my list this year at #48 and I believe he can once again surprise some people.

23. Cody Martin, P, Grade: C....A 7th rounder out of Gonzaga in 2011, Martin was a veterab of over 200 innings at the Triple-A level heading into 2015. The numbers were there, but the projections weren't. He would pitch in 21 games out of the Braves' bullpen in 2015, but was prone to gopher balls. In July, the Braves sent him to the A's for some international slots so that they could sign their prospects. Since then, he has spent most of his time in the Pacific Coast League with 34.2 innings in the bigs, spent mostly with the Mariners after Oakland waives him.

22. Andrew Thurman, P, Grade: C....Acquired in the Evan Gattis trade, Thurman got off to a wonderful start with Carolina in 2015. However, his season and his team's season would be marred by a bus crash. Thurman never seemed the same after that. Thurman's woeful pitching in 2016 removed any prospect luster from him and he was released last August. He has since signed with the Dodgers and will try to revive his career out west.

21. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C+....A plus defender, Camargo has made prospect lists based solely on his skill in the field. The switch-hitter continues to struggle to hit, though. With a career ISO under .100 and a .304 OBP at Mississippi last year, Camargo is a longshot to become a fixture in the majors. However, the Braves do like him and added him to the 40-man roster this winter.

Of the first ten prospects released for the 2015 Top 30, six are no longer in the organization. Of those remaining four, only one made my Top 50 this season. That's both a testament to the system's depth and the struggles prospects have had since the original ranking.

Braves Get Tyler Pike from Mariners

November's trade of Robert Whalen and Max Povse to the Mariners for Alex Jackson and a player to be named later is now complete. Left-hander Tyler Pike will be headed to the Braves. Presumably, the two teams had worked out a list of players the Braves would take, but Atlanta wanted to wait until the Rule 5 Draft was completed so that they wouldn't have to concern themselves with protecting the player they wanted.

Pike, who was once committed to Florida State, was a third round selection of the 2012 draft and the 126th overall selection of that draft. He showed promise through his first two seasons, but then reached the California League and things went away from him. And now, let's talk about the Seattle Mariners development team.

As a high school left-hander, Pike began his career in 2012 in the Arizona Summer League. That's pretty typical and while Pike certainly looked good (57 K's in 50.2 innings while allowing one homerun), the common path of a high school draftee is an assignment with the Advanced-Rookie League squad. Seattle, unlike the Braves, could have also waited until the Short Season Northwest League began its season and started Pike's second season there. Instead, they pushed Pike to A-ball Clinton of the Midwest League. This is not abnormal for the Mariners, either. They did the same thing with Taijuan Walker (and even moved him to Double-A the next year) after picking Walker out of Yucaipa High School in California.

It should be noted that both Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka, who signed rather than attend college after being selected in the first round of the 2015 draft, also moved up to A-ball the next year (though Allard did make five starts in High-Rookie ball). Nevertheless, Pike was still very young (about three years younger than the average) for the Midwest League. Like Allard and Soroka, Pike looked like he earned the promotion, but what happened next is why I bring this up.

When things came off the rails in 2014, he was again three years younger than the competition for the California League. Known as one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in baseball, the California League is not for the faint of heart. Pike would get bashed around and his psyche seemed cracked. In 61.1 innings, he gave up ten homers, walked 46 batters, hit seven more, and uncorked six wild pitches. He had an ERA of 5.72 in mid-June when the Mariners thought a change of scenery was needed. Rather than move Pike back down to the Midwest League to find his bearings, they promoted him to Jackson of the Double-A Southern League and his already putrid stats got a good deal worse. On the year, he had a 6.44 ERA between the two stops.

Most organizations would have started Pike back in A-ball in 2015, but not the Mariners. They started him in Jackson. He lasted eleven innings before being sent back to the California League. For 50 starts since then, he has started to find himself as his age came closer to matching his competition. Pike would also find better command over his curveball and the 12-to-6 pitch has plus-plus capability.

Pike is still an unfinished project. While he has improved his command, he still walked nearly five batters per nine innings last year. On the plus side, he struck out a new personal best 134 batters for a rate of 9.6 per nine. Pike won't induce too many grounders and has given up his fair share of homers, though the California League will do that to ya. His delivery looks fluid enough, though I'd like to see the Braves cut it down some as it includes a bit too much movement (over-the-head, high leg kick). It does provide some deception, but at a cost.

I talked about his curveball as it truly is the difference in helping him stay as a starter. When he is able to control and drop it below the knees as it reaches the plate, it has out pitch ability. Pike's velocity won't light up the radar guns (low 90's), but his command on the fastball will be key in getting him to the majors. He also has a pretty good changeup, though like his other pitches, improved command would go a long way to helping him.

Pike will turn 23 near the end of January and the southpaw will be given a third shot to solve the Southern League. This time, however, he's earned it and is age appropriate. He could easily be a sleeper that turns into a Top 10 prospect by season's end or get moved to the bullpen. Much like many prospects the Braves have picked up this offseason, Pike represents a low floor, high ceiling guy. His stats are not much to write home about, but if Atlanta straightens him out, they turned two decent arms into a big one (plus whatever happens with Jackson). That's how you build impact talent.

Braves Continue to Shoot for the Stars

On the first day of the 2015 calendar year, the Atlanta Braves packaged a pair of useful arms in David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to acquire Manny Banuelos. A little more than a week later, the Braves sent pitcher Nate Hyatt and third baseman Kyle Kubitza to the Angels. Both players who could have potentially helped a bad Braves team in 2015, but the Braves wanted young left-hander Ricardo Sanchez.

Both trades - and there were others - were a sign that the Braves were willing to cash in high-floor guys for higher-ceiling, but riskier options. Yesterday, the Braves went to the well once more and packaged Robert Whalen and Max Povse for Alex Jackson, formerly of the Mariners' organization. A player to be named later will eventually also be sent from the Mariners. (Ed.: On 12/9/16, Tyler Pike was announced as the player to be named later. For more on him, click here.)

A right-handed outfielder, Jackson was the sixth overall selection of the 2014 draft. That alone makes this a bit of a surprise because the M's were so willing to cash him in. The young man turns 21 on Christmas and just finished a 92-game run with Clinton in the Midwest League (A-ball). While a catcher when he was at the prep level, Jackson has settled into right field since going pro. There are some who believe the Braves may try him again at catcher, but I tend to believe that with his offensive issues (I'll get to that), Atlanta won't try to add on with a move back behind the plate.

When the Braves picked Braxton Davidson 26 picks after Jackson in 2014, people graded Davidson's raw power potential as elite in that year's draft. It's worth remembering that Jackson was right there with him. Entering the draft, Baseball America named him the top position player available. In 135 games in high school, he crushed the opposition for a .375 batting average and 47 homeruns. He was on his way to the University of Oregon to pay baseball, but $4.2 million has a way to change people's minds.

To this point, we have seen a little of that raw power so many raved about (21 HR, .166 ISO), but too many strikeouts (223 in 793 PA). The Braves hope the switch to Atlanta's system will allow Jackson to start over. His swing has been tinkered with and needs even more work. It almost looks like he's fighting himself to get the barrel through the zone. He does show a decent eye at the plate (8.9 BB%) and had a .346 wOBA while playing in a hard park to hit homers as a right-handed batter (89 HR park factor over 3 years). According to Statcorner, his adjusted wOBA was 109, which means when you take into account league and park factors, his production was actually 9% above the average.

And remember...we are talking about a guy who had a bad year. And he did, but beyond the potential, there is some signs here that Jackson could be on the rise. Yes, his swing needs more work, but his line drive rate was up about 6% last year. His strikeout looking rate fell nearly 1%. He hit about 3% less pop-ups. By themselves, these stats tell us little, but taken collectively, they could - and I have to stress could - be a sign that he's "getting it" more than he did in 2015 and responding better to coaching.

But even if Jackson is a lottery ticket that doesn't become a winner, the Braves traded from a strength and didn't unload any top prospects. Max Povse is a personal favorite of mine because he's a freak of nature on the mound. He's a 6'8" behemoth who gets great sinking action with his low 90's fastball. It's tough to even locate the ball when he pitches because all you see is a mess of legs and arms come flying your direction as he cocks and delivers the ball. With his control and groundball tendencies, Povse would have also been a favorite of Roger McDowell, who stressed both.

Also headed to the Mariners is Robert Whalen, who I would classify as a maximizer in that he maximizes everything he has to try to get batters out. He's smart and not just because he's smart enough to realize he can't get by on a plus pitch or absurd stuff. Another groundball guy, Whalen throws a lot of pitches (a half-dozen of them) and knows when and how to use them.

That's a lot of praise for both pitchers and they deserve it. Both could help the Mariners in 2017. Here's the but, though. While both pitchers are prospects deserving of a look, neither rank highly both in terms of their respective placement among top pitching prospects in the system or rank highly in general compared to their minor league peers. To put it more bluntly, if all three reached their best case scenarios, the Braves traded a pair of 2 WAR pitchers for a batter capable of 4.5 WAR and then some. That's not to say any of the previous sentence happens and quite frankly, the better money is on Povse or Whalen posting 2 WAR versus Jackson posting All-Star worthy money.

But...there's a chance it could happen. The Braves followed the safe philosophy under Frank Wren where they valued high floors and depth over lottery tickets. John Coppolella and John Hart have proven that while depth is important, you gotta buy that lottery ticket every now and then. Sure, most will provide no return for your investment, but eventually, there's going to be a win and that, my friends, will be a game changer for this franchise.

Sticking to the Plan: Braves Add R.A. Dickey

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original) [CC By 2.0], via Flickr

In a case of an early free agency rumor becoming true, the Atlanta Braves have signed pitcher R.A. Dickey to a contract for 2017. According to Jon Heyman, he'll receive at least $8M (total includes $500K buyout) with a chance to earn an additional $7.5 million if his option for 2018 is exercised.

Let's take a look at what the Braves got.

Profiling Dickey

I don't know if you are aware of this, but Dickey throws the knuckleball. In fact, he throws it about 88% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. Along with Steven Wright and Eddie Gamboa, he's one of three knucklers to pitch in the majors since the retirement of Tim Wakefield in 2011. All three had been in the AL East, but that is no longer the case now.

Before Dickey, nobody threw the knuckleball with such velocity. That said, Dickey has "lost" about three ticks in velocity over the last two years from an average of 75.3 mph in 2014 to 72.2mph this year. However, those averages are pretty much useless because Dickey throws two knuckleballs that are only charted as one. The fast one is the one that shocks hitters and observers as, on a good day, it can reach 80 mph. The slower one is comparable to the Bugs Bunny cartoon where a hitter can swing three times on one pitch. Okay, maybe not that slow, but the two knucklers have about, on average, a 5-to-10 mph difference.

Dickey throws three other pitches, but last year seemed to relegate himself to a two-pitch pitcher. His sinker, which averaged 83 mph, was utilized 9.2% of the time. That represents an increase of double the usage from 2015. He rarely went to his fourseamer, which he adopted in 2012, nor his changeup - though that's nothing new. Now, here's the thing. Being a two-pitch pitcher is more in line with his Mets' days. Back then, he actually used his sinker much more (around a quarter of the time). Once he went to Toronto, his knuckleball usage went through the roof.

That's one thing the Braves may attempt to change once he arrives in camp in February. Dickey will also enjoy a move away from the homer-happy stadiums of the AL East where three of the five home parks in the division are extreme hitter paradises. That's especially true of his former home in Toronto. Since joining the Jays, Dickey had a HR/9 of 1.45 at home versus 1.02 on the road. While it's unknown how SunTrust Park will play, of the dozen current stadium in baseball that parkfactors.com gives a rating of 105+ - which classifies it as a hitter's park - only one is the NL East. In an unbalanced schedule, that should aid with Dickey's homerun numbers. He surrendered between 25 and 35 homeruns as a Blue Jay and between 1.05 and 1.49 HR/9. That mark should fall with his return to the NL.

That would also help his FIP/xFIP numbers. During his Blue Jays days, his best performance in those metrics was 4.32/4.14 in 2014. They looked noticeably worse over the last two years as his strikeouts fell. On the subject of K's, it's important to point out that he rebounded there last year (3% climb) and percentage-wise, he's just about 1.5% below where he was in 2014. Of bigger concern was that Dickey's walk numbers climbed sharply as a Blue Jay to a seven-year high of 8.7% last year. Perhaps less knucklers will help with that.

It's also important to not get too attached to the home/road splits. I gave you the homerun difference earlier, but from a FIP/xFIP standpoint, it's less stark. At home with the Blue Jays, Dickey had a combo split of 4.78/4.30. On the road, it was 4.36/4.59. While the FIP does keep the big change, the xFIP doesn't. That's because xFIP normalizes the homeruns surrendered. I'm pointing out this because if you think a return to the NL is just going to fix Dickey right up, you might be very disappointed. It's not to say Dickey won't be improved by a switch of leagues, but he's also not the guy who the Mets traded after 2012 anymore either.

How Dickey Fits

Dickey does do one thing the Braves are searching for. He takes the mound every fifth day. Until last year when he finished 31.1 innings short, the right-hander had pitched at least 208.2 innings every year since 2011. He would have at least gotten closer to 200 innings in 2016, but the Jays removed him from the rotation for the September stretch run. Since the Braves have had two pitchers reach 170 innings the last two seasons, an addition like Dickey will bring some calm to the staff and help them to avoid using AAAA depth guys like Lucas Harrell and Ryan Weber so frequently.

The knuckleballer also buys the Braves some time. Sean Newcomb is coming. So is Max Fried. As is Max Povse, Lucas Sims, and others. Matt Wisler, Tyrell Jenkins, John Gant, Robert Whalen, and more are already here. But the Braves don't want to just hand them spots. They want them to earn their spot like Mike Foltynewicz has. In the mean time, a veteran like Dickey gives them an option and let's not ignore that Dickey, for all his faults, gave the Jays over 800 innings and 6.4 fWAR the last four seasons. Only one pitcher has done either for the Braves. To be fair, Julio Teheran was 4.2 innings short of doing both.

It is unlikely Dickey will be the last starter the Braves add this winter. From the start, the idea was a guy like Dickey who will provide a short-term boost and help the Braves be better in 2017 while the young guns mature. Meanwhile, the Braves will seek another starter to stick around beyond 2017. Recently, I profiled Jason Hammel as a possibility. Regardless of what happens, the Braves do not want to run out of options like they did in 2016. Adding a guy like Dickey will help with that.

It's not a sexy signing. You'll probably have to remind yourself the Braves added Dickey by the time pitchers and catchers report. But it's a good signing that helps the Braves do what they have stated is their goal for 2017 - to be better.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack (4/16/16)

In this week's Saturday Stats Pack, I take a look at the continued improvement from a third baseman prospect who languished last year, a starter making his return from double knee surgery, and a converted shortstop on who is on fire. Remember to check out this week's major league Saturday Stats Pack where I looked at Nick Markakis's tear last week, Jhoulys Chacin's debut, and some team stats related to the early struggles this year.

Gwinnett - 7 Games, 11 Hits

Rio Ruiz's season got off to an 0-for-4 start, but since then, he's had at least a hit in each of the next eight games. Over the last four, he's had exactly two-a-game, giving him a stellar .355 average. The power has also came with a homerun Thursday night, his first at the AAA level. Few Braves prospects had a more disappointing 2015 than Ruiz, when he slashed .229/.331/.318. But he made adjustments and impressed fans and players alike this spring in his brief run with the major league team. While Adonis Garcia is holding down the third base job in the bigs, the Braves may opt to get a look at Ruiz this summer in a platoon role - especially considering Garcia's defensive limitations.

Mississippi - Whalen Goes Six, Gets First Double-A Win

As surprising as John Gant may have been this spring, he was the "other guy" acquired form the Mets last summer in the Kelly Johnson / Juan Uribe trade. Robert Whalen was the real pick-up and the righty only made three starts before missing the rest of the year and undergoing surgery on both of his knees. After making his debut last week, he ended the week on a strong note with six quality innings Friday night against Montgomery. He allowed four hits, a pair of runs, and induced 8 grounders to just two flyouts. He also struck out five to just one walk. Whalen is easy to forget about in this system, but he could be a fun trade piece or help fill out a rotation if he continues to develop.

Carolina - To the Max with 13 ING, 0 runs, and 14 K's

Another pitcher who flies a bit under the radar is Max Povse, which is surprising considering his 6'8" height. The third rounder in 2014 stalled in a five-start performance last summer with Carolina after looking great in Rome before the promotion. His struggles and the fact that injury ended his year early meant that Povse would make a return trip with the Mudcats. The rest of the Carolina League might be hoping the return trip ends with a promotion soon. After six scoreless against Salem last Sunday in which he walked just one and struck out seven, Povse's follow-up was just as excellent with seven one-hit innings, a walk, and seven K's.

Rome - RPD Rides Hot Streak to 1000+ OPS

When Ray-Patrick Didder signed out of Aruba, the Braves were high on his collection of tools and they wanted him to play shortstop where he could maximize his value, but they abandoned that hope last year. Still, his bat had some upside even though he hadn't stood out yet. So far this year, the 21 year-old is standing out in a big way. He's hitting over .350 with 4 doubles and 2 triples while playing mostly right field. He has yet to homer in 162 professional games and with his slight frame, power will never be his game, but he has a quick swing that slashes the ball to the gaps. To this point, he's been more of an adventure than a plus in the running game, but he could be an interesting super utility-type to keep an eye on.

Carolina Mudcats 2016 Preview

Swanson's a Mudcat in 2016
Rob Carr/Getty Images

Yesterday, I previewed the Rome Braves roster, which is full of prospects throughout. Today's team, the Carolina Mudcats, is not quite as impressive from a prospect standpoint, though the franchise's top prospect will start there. There are some good prospects throughout this team, though.

Staff - Rocket Wheeler (Manager), Jose Mota (Coach), Carlos Mendez (Hitting), Derrick Lewis (Pitching)
-Since 2003, Wheeler has been managing Braves affiliates with his longest tenure coming with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans for five seasons until 2010. He was at the helm of the 2008 squad that won 89 game behind the play of Ernesto Mejia, Tyler Flowers, and Scott Diamond. Now he's back in the Carolina League with the Mudcats. The rest of the coaching staff is unchanged from last season. Mendez played 16 professional years with a 26-game run with the Orioles in 2003 mixed in. After spending his final three years with Richmond, the career .296 minor league hitter retired and joined the organization as a coach in '08. Lewis, a 20th rounder in 1997, pitched as high as AAA with the Braves organization before retiring in 2003 and joining the Braves coaching ranks the year after. Mota was not part of the announced coaching staff, but is on Carolina's roster page. In a career spanning a dozen years, he made it to the majors twice in the 90's.

(L) - Left-handed Pitcher/Hitter
(B) - Switch-Hitter
(#number) - Where player ranked in my preseason Top 50 if applicable

Pitchers - Zach Bird (#16), Ryan Clark (#36), Enderson Franco, Chase Johnson-Mullins (L), Ryan Lawlor (L)
-Bird's placement is a mild surprise after Atlanta gave him three starts in AA after acquiring him in the Hector Olivera/Alex Wood exchange last July. A high-ceiling guy, Bird has great potential, but many question marks that have stunk with him since the Dodgers signed him out of Murrah High School in Jackson, Mississippi. Clark's an aggressive placement after being the Braves' fifth round pick last June. In 52.2 innings with Danville, he showed pinpoint control and kept the ball in the yard (4 K/BB, 2 HR allowed). An UNC-Greensboro alum, Clark could be a depth guy for the major league roster at some point in 2017. Picked up from the Marlins organization (he played with Houston and Tampa Bay before that), Franco is a 23-year old in his seventh year of minor league ball with zero innings above A-ball. Another aggressive placement, Johnson-Mullins was picked eight rounds after Clark. A reliever out of Shelton State Community College in Tuscaloosa, Johnson-Mullins walked too many batters last year, but if the 21 year-old southpaw throws strikes, he could be a good reliever for the Braves. Georgia Bulldog fans remember Lawlor, who the Braves also picked last June in the 8th round. He started 7 of 8 games for Danville last year and had a good strikeout rate of 8.2 per nine. He walked a few too many, but kept the ball in the yard.

Pitchers (cont'd) - Sean McLaughlin, Raimar Navarro (also sometimes Raymar), Wes Parsons, Evan Phillips, Max Povse (#21)
-Lawlor's teammate with Georgia and Danville last year, McLaughlin is one of the few 2015 picks to already have A-ball experience after finishing last year with 17.2 innings with Rome. Struck out nearly 10 batters for every nine innings thrown and had pretty stout control to match (3.4 K/BB). Navarro left Cuba in 2013 and was training with Hector Olivera for a time as he tried to find an MLB deal. Before defecting and signing with the Braves last August, he pitched in the Cuban National Series with Holguin from 2009-2012 mostly as a starter, though he was very very young to be pitching in Cuba's primer league. Now 24, his first game with Carolina will be his first one in the states. Parsons came on the scene with a big 2013 season at Rome after being signed as an undrafted free agent, but stagnated in 2014. He was also hurt and that would continue in 2015, when he pitched just 19.2 total innings including one start in Carolina before his season came to a close. There's a lot to like about Parsons when he's healthy and dealing. With any luck, we'll see some of that this year. A 17th rounder out of UNC-Wilmington last June, Phillips appeared in 12 games with Rome after less than a month with Danville. The righty, who was also drafted by the Royals in 2012, had big strikeout numbers last year (11.2 per nine). Povse started last year with a dozen good starts in Rome before earning a callup to Carolina where everything came off the rails. After less than a month there, it became apparent something was wrong. Povse's season whimpered to a close in late July. The 6'8" behemoth will try to right the ship in 2016.

Pitchers (cont'd) - Zach Quintana, Carlos Salazar, Richie Tate (suspended), Matt Withrow
-Quick question: who did the Braves get in the Kyle Wren trade? If you guessed Zach Quintana, way to follow the format I'm doing here. Quintana was a third rounder by the Brewers in 2012, but had never found success until last year. It wasn't great success, but they got him to throw a lot more strikes and his lowered his walk rate from about 4.5 per nine to 2 per nine. He was a nice swingman for Rome - a role he might serve for Carolina. A 2013 third rounder out of Kerman, California, Salazar is kind of repeating a level after finishing 2015 with ten games in Carolina. The 21 year-old has always shown strikeout potential, but doesn't always know where the ball is going. Richie Tate got suspended for the second consecutive season after testing positive for a "drug of abuse." MLB defines cocaine, opiates, PCP, and cannabis as drugs of abuse and this is Tate's third overall suspension. Tate will miss over half of the year with a 100-game suspension and hasn't built much goodwill with a poor performance on the mound as well. With his brother Chris Withrow in Gwinnett, Matt Withrow joins Clark, Johnson-Mullins, and Lawlor in skipping Rome to begin his first full season in the system with Carolina. He started 13 games for Danville last year with a decent K/BB rate of 2.2.

Catchers - Tanner Murphy (#47), Joseph Odom
-If the Braves didn't have both Lucas Herbert and Jonathan Morales deserving promotions to Rome, Murphy likely would have been given a chance to improve upon his .193/.277/.312 stinker of a year he posted in the South Atlantic League last year. But things being as they are, Murphy will have to re-establish himself in High-A while playing in the Carolina League, which is much harder to hit in than other high-A leagues. The previous year, he showed some good on-base skills and pop (.361 OBP, .147 ISO) to match his great defense. A return to form would be great. Odom has been with the Braves' Carolina League affiliate for two years already. He's a caddy for the starter.

Infielders - Jordan Edgerton (#46), Reed Harper, Joey Meneses, Omar Obregon (B), Dansby Swanson (#1)
-Edgerton carried a little hype heading into 2015, but it eroded with a .245/.290/.317 season in Rome. Like Murphy, if he is to redeem himself, he will have to do it while moving up to high-A. Harper played 82 games with Carolina last year and OPS'd .549, which brought his career OPS down to .608. He can sub all over the infield, though. Meneses memorably OPS'd .850 with Rome in 2014 while hitting for the cycle, but struggled badly in Carolina last year. He can play the outfield, though Carolina is pretty good there. Obregon has a decent glove and speed, but is raw (19 CS in 50 attempts) and has zero power (.039 career ISO). It was a bit of a surprise to see Ozhaino Albies skip Carolina and Dansby Swanson start the year there instead. While the narrative suggested the Braves wanted to keep the duo separate for now to allow them to both play shortstop, with Swanson's competitive college experience and age, it was assumed he would start ahead of Albies. Guess not. Easily one of the most dynamic offensive players not only for Carolina, but in the Carolina League, the excitement for Swanson is huge right now. Fans have been spoiled by the quick ascension of many college players but if Swanson takes more time, that's not a bad thing. Let him develop at his own speed. He's going to be a good one.

Outfielders - Keith Curcio (L, #38), Joseph Daris (L, #40), Braxton Davidson (L, #12), Ryan Gebhardt, Sean Godfrey
-Curcio earned a promotion to Carolina last year after a .343/.416/.479 slash in 32 games with Rome. The results in Carolina were not nearly as exciting, but a .265/.327/.369 triple slash from a player in his first full season - who was also being shifted to second base at times - is acceptable. He played almost all-outfield in winter ball so I assume the 2B experiment was taken out back and shot. Curcio left Daris in Rome and the latter was given the full season to slash .272/.336/.396 - a significant improvement over his first year where he struggled in rookie ball. Daris also nearly pulled off a nerdy feat. Until the final few weeks, he had more triples than doubles, but finished with 13 doubles and 12 triples. He also stole 23 out of 30 bases. Davidson's in-game power started to show more in 2015 than the year before (.132 ISO) but it's still not in line with his projected power output. Love his patience at the plate and I think more power will come. I'm more interested to see if he stays in the outfield or if the Braves eventually move him to first. 2015 was the season of change for Gebhardt. He began the year with AA-Mobile, was demoted to low-A Kane County, promoted to high-A Visalia, demoted back to Kane County, released, signed with Long Island of the independent Atlantic League, purchased by the Braves, assigned to Rome, and then finished the year with three games in Carolina. He saw more states in six months than many of us see in a lifetime. He also found time to pitch a game. Though labelled an outfielder here, he's only played there once so far. Like Bird, Godfrey has to be disappointed with beginning this season back in Carolina. The 22nd rounder out of Ball State opened last year with the Mudcats and hit .304 over 62 games, earning a promotion to Mississippi where he hit like a decent-hitting pitcher (.194/.232/.272). Godfrey was a fun pick in 2014 because he went from drafted to Danville to Rome to Lynchburg within the span of a few months. Now, he's hanging on by a thread to his dreams of being an Atlanta Brave.

Pay to see: Povse, Swanson, Davidson.

Keep an eye on: Bird, Clark, Parson, Murphy, Curcio.

As 2016 begins, Carolina has a little star power with Swanson and Davidson, but not much beyond that. Promotions will change that as the season progresses. If you can catch Carolina play this year, do so early to make sure you get to see Swanson up close. I am going to try to see a few games with the Mudcats and Hillcats in early May for that exact reason.