Organizational Overview: First Base

Freeman | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

For many of the organizational overviews I do to accompany our prospect rundowns, the current starter or starters at that position may run the gamut between good-to-bad, but there are often two or three really good prospects on the way to supplement them or push them out of the way. First base is the exception as not only is the starter elite, but there are nearly no prospects to speak of. That's not a terrible thing - I mentioned before how many standout first basemen don't start there. But it certainly makes for a relatively sad collection of prospect blurbs like we released on Friday.

I'm changing up the organizational overview slightly. The first section will include where that position projects right now for 2018 in comparison to the league. The second section will look at the near future and the "oh (expletive)!" plan should things go really wrong in 2018. Finally, the third section goes beyond the next couple of years. Some of the information I use comes from recent looks at the roster makeup for next season.

First Base
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21 million)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3 million estimate based on Lonnie Chisenhall's 2017 arbitration settlement)
Minor League Free Agents: Carlos Franco, Joey Meneses, Matt Tuiasosopo
Current Projection: $25.3 million

For the Braves, their hopes and dreams for 2018 include a lot of Freeman playing. Next season will be Year 5 of Freeman's big eight-year extension that runs through 2021. The deal was heavily backloaded, which is pretty common for a player signing prior to his big arbitration paydays. Freeman earned $20.5M this year, the first of five years he'll earn at least that much cash. Freeman has yet to play in a playoff game since signing that extension, which is a terrible waste of some of the slugger's best years. Freeman notably played a little third base this year and didn't suck too awfully at it, which was surprising.

Adams is currently projected for the 2018 roster because to lose him for nothing is difficult to believe. When the dust settled on his 2017, it was a pretty solid - and unspectacular - season. Basically, a microcosm of his career. That said, he provides a big bat against right-hand pitching and could be useful for next year's team as support for Freeman and a potential option in left field. You'll lose value with Adams in left because he's a terrible defender, but you can also say the same about the current projected starter out there.

Jace Peterson and Rio Ruiz, not mentioned here, also played some first base for the Braves last year and both could return next season.

Comparison - 2018

Freeman played in 117 games, roughly forty fewer than the other elite options at first base. Despite that, he nearly matched them as far as production goes. Despite swinging a wet newspaper for much of the second half, Freeman's .280 ISO was only bested by rookies Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo among first basemen. It was the fourth time in five years he posted at least a 4 WAR and only Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt can make convincing arguments that they could be the best first baseman in the game since the beginning of last year.

There is zero reason to believe Freeman, when healthy, won't continue to excel in 2018. He finished last season with the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the best wOBA so he's still improving rather than regressing. Next season will be his Age-28 season so he could be still scratching the surface on what the Best Freeman might look like. That's a scary proposition for the rest of the league right now.

If Adams is brought back, he remains a solid platoon option should Freeman go down, having OPS'd .828 against righties throughout his career. He brings limited value because of his flaws, but when he's on, his bat can launch homers in binges. He's also a tremendous pinch-hitter and I typically don't attach such an adjective to a role that is often difficult to successfully duplicate. Over 155 pinch-hit appearances, Adams is slashing .315/.342/.555 with nine home runs.

You could make the argument that with Adams and a competent platoon option against southpaws, first base would be a strength. But with Freeman, it makes first base an elite strength compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - The Near-Future/"Oh, (Expletive)!" Plan

For the latter, the presence of Adams gives the Braves a big boost. However, the Braves may find his salary, which could approach $5 million, a bit too rich for their blood. If so, the Braves would be in a dicey position depth-wise short of other moves this winter - basically, the same position they were in when Freeman went down after being hit by a pitch by Aaron Loup in 2017. At that point, the Braves signed the zombified version of James Loney, started Jace Peterson at first base, and promoted Carlos Franco from Double-A to Triple-A. None of those moves gave former General Manager John Coppolella any confidence - as they shouldn't have - and he made the deal for Adams.

If the Braves cut bait on Adams, they should definitely be on the lookout for some help here because they lack any real options to immediately call upon. There's Peterson, who...no. Just no. Rio Ruiz was given a late look last month at first base and also played a handful of games at first base this season for Gwinnett. There was some purpose to these moves as the Braves looked to uncover some added value in Ruiz, whose defensive inflexibility and limited offensive profile as a platoon hitter makes it hard to keep him on the roster. He looked like a guy who hasn't played much first base to no one's surprise. He'll likely continue to get some work there this offseason and spring. If Adams is gone, without additional options brought aboard, Ruiz might be Atlanta's best option at first base should Freeman go down.

This is both a potential strength and weakness. Not many teams - especially in the NL - have an option like Matt Adams to call upon. But if he is non-tendered, depth could be a real weakness that will need to be addressed.

Lugbauer | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Comparison - The Future

Here's a brief projection of what 1B might look like next year in the farm system with their rankings in our most recent Top 5 1B in parenthesis...

Gwinnett: Sal Giardina, Minor League Free Agents
Mississippi: Carlos Castro (5), Jonathan Morales
Florida: Drew Lugbauer (1), Kurt Hoekstra, Anthony Concepcion,
Rome: Austin Bush (4), Griffin Benson
Danville: Nicholas Vizcaino

That's not good. Lugbauer is really the only member of this group that would seem like a decent bet to get to the majors and he was an eleventh round draft choice last June. As we talked about on Friday, there's just not a lot else and that includes a pair of players from the Top 5 prospect list, Carlos Franco and Joey Meneses, who I believe are both possible minor league free agents this winter. The Braves could bring back either/both, but that won't help the position much.

That said, with Freeman's youth, first base is simply not a priority. Even if you are still worried about the future, first base could be aided by moving a prospect from another position. Like I pointed out, we saw Rio Ruiz get into some games at first base in the second half of the 2017 season. Another prospect, Braxton Davidson, could be one that gets moved sooner rather than later. When the roster for the fall instructional league was announced in mid-September, Davidson was listed as an infielder despite playing only the outfield after being drafted. Davidson's prospect status has disappeared after an OPS under .700 the last two years at High-A ball, but at just 21-years-old, the Braves aren't going to completely give up on him. He'll have to hit a ton to be a first base prospect, but with little else in the system, it might be a good move.

Austin Riley is another guy who could be switched across the diamond, as our Stephen Tolbert eluded to last week. I'm not there yet with Stephen, but Riley's defense at third base certainly is a work in progress. Others like Brett Cumberland or Alex Jackson could struggle to stay behind the plate, though Jackson seems like a better fit in the outfield.

Again, there's no pressing reason to feel the need to add some big-time talent at first base. Beyond the fact that you can move other players there, Freeman is locked up for another four seasons so when we talk about the future at the position, it's important to remember that the future is already here. In a weird way, despite the lack of any really talented prospects, the future at first base is still a strength. Other teams may have the big first base prospect, but when you have a guy like Freeman who is still pretty young and locked up, you're still looking pretty even without much in the system.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments!

2017-18 Hot Stove Organizational Overviews
Catcher

Minor League Stats Pack - Newcomb, Whalen, Toscano, Davidson

Here is this week's Saturday Stats Pack for the minor league Braves. Feel free to add to this post through the comment section with some interesting numbers I've missed.

Ken Lund via Flickr - Creative Commons License

Newcomb Heating Up

In a year of uneven performances, things are clicking for Sean Newcomb over his last two starts. In 11 innings, he has allowed just two runs, four walks, and 12 strikeouts. 61% of his pitches have gone for strikes during that time frame. If we can start to see more strikes out of Newcomb, the hope that he remains in the starting rotation increases. One thing's for certain - he is a weapon against lefthanders. They have managed just seven singles off the southpaw in 49 plate appearances. 35% of those appearances have ended in a strikeout.

Whalen Finding His Groove

While John Gant has already appeared in the majors out of the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson deal last summer, Robert Whalen was the higher-regarded prospect at the time of the trade. His work of late has shown exactly why. Over his last six starts, he has allowed an earned run or less in five of them. His average game score for those outings is 59 - which is dragged down significantly by a 34 mixed in there. Whalen might not enter any Top 10's for the system, but he's a pitcher worth watching as 2016 continues.

For Toscano, 2016 Has Not Been Worth the Wait

On one hand, it's an improvement for the Braves to even see 27 year-old Dian Toscano on the field after VISA issues wiped out his 2015 season. However, the Cuban defectee has been thoroughly underwhelming for Mississippi this year, slashing just .228/.302/.289 over 40 games. The dream was that Toscano had the upside of a second-division starter in the outfield, but the fallback of a fourth outfielder appears - for now - to be a fantasy as well.

Braxton Starting to Get It

It wouldn't be accurate to label Braxton Davidson's season anything but disappointing. Nevertheless, the 20 year-old has shown improvement after slashing .172/.245/.276 over his first 24 games. In the next batch of two-dozen games, Davidson has improved to the tune of a .253/.358/.342 slash. Now, that is hardly outstanding numbers, but we are starting to see progression, which is the most important thing for Davidson at this point. Not for nothing, but the next time Davidson faces a pitcher younger than him, it'll be the first time in two years. Remember that the next time anyone refers to the 19 year-old as a bust.

Runners of the South Atlantic League: Beware!

The duo of Lucas Herbert and Jonathan Morales have done a great job this year for Rome. One catches while the other DH's. It keeps both in the lineup almost every day. Herbert's bat hasn't been a plus this year and Morales has cooled off after a scorching beginning to the year, but even if they're not producing tremendously at the plate, they are doing the duty behind it. Herbert, who was drafted because of his work behind the plate, has not disappointed. Morales's defense has been a bit of surprise and together, both have dominated the South Atlantic League baserunners. 43% of those that have tried to steal on Herbert have been caught. For Morales, it's 20-of-41 (49%). The league average is 33% and the Rome Braves are bringing up the curve.

Minter Rolling

Limited to just 58 innings in college and no innings after being drafted last summer out of Texas A&M, A.J. Minter didn't pitch this season in a game until May 5. Since getting into game action, Minter has been on fire. After 6.2 scoreless innings with Rome to begin his professional career, he was promoted to Carolina. In two games there, Minter added 3.1 scoreless. Overall, he is up to ten innings, two hits allowed, three walks, and 11 K's. The potential bad news is that he was moved down to Danville on June 1st. This may have been an administrative move to limit his innings. There also exists the possibility that Minter is attracting trade interest and the Braves don't want to chance his health. Either way, the results on the mound have gave the Braves some validation for drafting him in the second round.

Spring Training Moves & Guys You Don't Know, vol. 4

First thing's first, I published some instant analysis on today's spring training moves that included the releases of David Carpenter and Ryan Kelly along with reassigning Braxton Davidson to the minor league camp.

Another game and a few more names that might have surprised Braves fans in Atlanta's 12-11 loss to the Phillies on Friday. This is the fourth edition of this column and you can read about other random names that have shown up in boxscores by clicking here.

M. Kennelly, C, 1-for-2, R, 3 RBI, BB

Who is he? Matt Kennelly...It was almost appropriate that Kennelly replaced Braeden Schlehuber behind the plate on Friday as the two have been in the system for some time and are essentially the same player. Kennelly got his start after being signed out of Australia about a decade ago. He appeared in his first game in 2007 and spent the next six years plus years in the Braves system with an odd three-game turn in the Arizona Fall League. He reached Gwinnett in 2011 and started there in 2013 before being pushed out by a number crunch. After spending the rest of 2013 in the Reds organization, he returned to the Braves in 2014 and has been a fixture ever since (along with a yearly run in the Australia Baseball League). In nearly 600 games, he has hit just 19 homeruns and OPS'd .630 so you can imagine that his job is dependent on handling a pitching staff well. Kennelly can play a little first and has played the outfield in Australia as well. He even got into a game on the mound last year for Mississippi, pitching a quiet inning in relief. Overall, he's respected by the organization, but that's about it. Kennelly was among the five players reassigned to the minor league camp early this morning.

V. Mateo, P, 0.1 ING, H, 2 R, 2 ER, BB, K, HR

Who is he? Victor Mateo...After spending eight years in the Devil Rays organization, Mateo joined the Braves last offseason and was great at Mississippi before spending a rough month or so with Gwinnett. A durable righty who has has logged between 147.2 ING and 166 ING in each of the last three seasons, Mateo gets a decent amount of groundballs and largely avoids homeruns, but routinely has FIPs over 4. Even when his ERA was 2.68 as a Mississippi Brave over 107.1 ING last year, his FIP was 4.09. This is largely due to weak strikeout numbers and good, but not great, control which results in a career 1.8 K/BB ratio.

Hursh, P, 0.2 ING, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, K, HR

Who is he? Jason Hursh...You really ought to know who Hursh is at this point, but just in case you didn't, here's the book on Hursh. You get a lot of grounders and that's about it. Basically, he's a slightly more impressive Mateo as he keeps the ball on the ground (usually) and avoids homeruns (again, usually). At this point, Hursh seems to be transitioning into a bullpen role, which seems like a weird fit for a sinker baller. Ultimately, Atlanta is trying to get anything from their former first rounder, but it seems unlikely that Hursh will be in the major league picture at any point in 2016.

2016 Top 50 Prospects - #15-#6

For the past couple of weeks, I have looked at the start of the Top 50 list. I've ranked prospects #50 down to #16 so far and now you really start to see the elite prospects of this system. The next ten includes a pair of outfielders, two third basemen, and six pitchers. This section also includes my first grades better than a C+.

A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.

Previously Ranked: #50-#26, #25-#16

15. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: C+

It wasn't exactly the season that either Ruiz or the Braves had in mind after he was acquired in the Evan Gattis trade last January. He was coming off a .293/.387/.436 slash with Lancaster (A+) as a 20 year-old and more power was expected. However, the Southern League is a bit tougher to hit in than the California League and Ruiz struggled to the tune of .233/.333/.324. It's worth noting that like many Braves prospects - especially hitters - Ruiz was pushed aggressively and had just eight plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. He also finished strong, hitting nearly .300 with 4 of his 5 HR after August 1. Another trip to Mississippi is likely in his future, though a strong spring could change things. I'm still a believer.

14. Chris Ellis, RHP, Grade: C+

Of the top prospects acquired this offseason, it's easy to forget about Ellis. A stout right-hander who was drafted in the 2014 third round out of Mississippi, Ellis has already started 15 games at AA and held his own. While he lacks the high-end talent of Sean Newcomb, who the Braves also acquired for Andrelton Simmons, Ellis had an impressive first full season of professional ball. Ellis is a breaking pitch away from being a prospect that could climb into the top 10 in no time. It's still amazing that the Angels gave up so much for Simmons. A great player, no doubt, but when you have so few prospects, surrendering Ellis and Newcomb remains a head scratcher.

13. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B-

Two things happened for Jenkins in 2015 that has never happened before in his previous three years since graduating rookie ball - he pitched above A-ball and he stayed pretty healthy. However, while there are things to like about the results, I am a bit slow to get too excited because the K/9 rate was the worst of his career and his walk rate went up. On the other hand, just staying healthy and on the mound was an accomplishment and could give us hope for better things to come. I'm still grading him on his potential and youth is on his side. Jenkins could be a breakthrough player in 2016.

12. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-

"But he only hit .242." Yes, random person, he did. At the age of 19 in the South Atlantic League. He also on-based .381 with the help of 84 walks and hit ten homers. Davidson will need to make more contact to avoid being a Cody Johnson, but I think he won't have that problem. Though he's only belted ten homers to this point, he has the raw power that could help him cruise past that total in 2016. The big question following Davidson has been whether or not he'll be able to stay in the outfield and while he probably won't be a world beater, he did enough to stick in right field last year and not completely embarrass himself. This is a good sign because his bat has more value in right field than at first base, which is considered his fallback destination. A challenge in Carolina awaits him and he won't turn 20 until June so struggles should be expected. Still...if he is able to turn it on, Davidson could be a difference maker in any lineup.

11. Austin Riley, 3B, Grade: B-

From intriguing prep pitching arm to one of the best hitting prospects in the system in a blink of an eye. After the draft, Riley spent 30 games each at the GCL level and with Danville and hammered 12 homers along the way with a .304/.389/.544 composite slash. Yes, it was only 252 PA and yeah, he struck out 65 times...but we're talking about a kid who doesn't turn 19 until April 2. It's difficult to rank Riley considering his relative inexperience, but it's hard not to push him toward the Top 10 with that kind of start. Now, the fun part begins - can he repeat his success in 2016? He joins a talent-rich Rome squad that should be exciting to watch and more eyeballs than normal will be on him. If he continues to hit, the sky is the limit for this kid.

10. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B

Is the clock starting to run out on Manny as a prospect? To a degree. He'll turn 25 in a month and started just professional career eight years ago. Injuries limited him considerably with 2016 marking the first season since 2011 that he threw at least a 100 innings. He also picked up his first shutout since 2011 as well while with Gwinnett, where he was excellent before earning a promotion to the majors. The results once promoted to the bigs started well, but the production declined before he was hurt and couldn't stay on the mound. Since injuries have taken some of his velocity, he's been relegated to a change-of-speed guy who will need to improve his location to be effective as a starter at the major league level. Still a shot he transitions into a decent LOOGY option down the line, but Atlanta will give him plenty of opportunity to be a rotation fixture first.

9. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B

It's easy to become overly excited about Mallex. The speed stands out at first, but its value increases when you look at Mallex's on-base skills. Over four seasons, he has a .380 OBP in the minors. But then you look at the power numbers and it's just as easy to be a bit discouraged. He had an .080 ISO last season, which is about his career norm so far. That gives him very little margin for error. It's difficult for an outfielder to post 4 WAR seasons without a .100 or better ISO. The walks help Mallex in this case and if he's able to improve his defense, which has only garnered okayish grades so far, he could definitely do that. In the end, Mallex needs all the things that he currently does to translate - hit for average, get walks, steal bases, stay in center. If any of these fade, his value is closer to 4th outfielder than the guy many are convinced will shift Ender Inciarte to left when he arrives this summer. Still, I like his chances to become a leadoff hitter in the majors much higher than Jose Peraza.

8. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+

At 22, Fried has just 147 innings of professional ball since the Padres made him the 7th overall pick of the 2012 draft. Even with that in mind, there are likely a few organizations out there where Fried would be their top pitching prospect right now. With a major-league quality curveball and great velocity, Fried has drawn comparisons to Cole Hamels. While the Braves will certainly baby him in 2016, the hope is that if Fried can get a hundred of innings in and pitch at AA, he'll be on a path that will get him into the major league picture before the end of 2017.

7. Lucas Sims, LHP, Grade: B+

Selected 13 picks after Fried in 2012, Sims has experienced a much healthier climb, but was bogged down by struggles in the Carolina League. That's a bit surprising because the Carolina League is typically forgiving for pitchers, but Sims was also very young for the level. He got off to a poor start in a return trip in 2015, but had back-to-back good performances before the Carolina bus accident sidelined him. After missing over a month, he came back for a brief run in Carolina before moving up to Mississippi. Outside of one bad outing against Birmingham, he was very stout with the M-Braves, striking out a season-high 10 against Pensacola and pitching into the sixth inning in each of his final six starts. He finished with an impressive 11-inning run in Arizona where he struck out 11 and walked just three. After coming off a disappointing season in 2014, Sims has momentum back on his side.

6. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+

With Toussaint, there are few pitchers with more raw stuff. His curveball can be absolutely lethal and his fastball has amazing movement. The problem is getting Toussaint to throw strikes consistently and that can come with more experience. Cleaning up his mechanics will help considerably and at 19, he has plenty of time to get there. The Braves will likely keep the kid gloves on him for the next few seasons and progress him through the system with care. Very few pitchers have the best case scenario as a #2 - maybe even #1 - but Toussaint has that if he can develop an off-speed delivery to compliment his fastball/curve combo (plus mechanics and control, of course). It's going to be fun to watch him try to put it all together and if you can see him pitch this year, you better go. You might see a stinker or you might see him throw six hitless innings like he did against Lakewood last July 20th. That was just his 24th career game.

Next week, I'll post the Top 5 Braves prospects at my other website, atlantabraves.about.com.

Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - #10-1

Previous Rankings: 30-21 | 20-11

Over the last two weeks, I have released the first two tiers of my Top 30 post-season ranks. This finishes up the list. Well, not really. Next Monday, I will release a "And One More" prospect run-down which will include one more player at each position to keep an eye on over the winter and into two next year. For reference, two of the players from the preseason list (Daniel Winkler and Juan Yepez) made this Top 30.

I'm thinking of a Supersized Top 30 for the preseason ranking. Maybe a Top 30 + 20 prospects. If you have any ideas of how to improve this list, feel free to comment or tweet me. In the meantime, thanks for reading and on with the countdown.

Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention

Ruiz (Elsa | Getty)

10. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: B-
Previous Ranks: 6, 7

It takes me awhile to quit on a guy, but without Ruiz's strong finish, he certainly drops out my Top 10. However, hitting 4 of his five homers and hitting nearly .300 over the final 34 games gives me some hope. There's something here and it's enough to get hopeful over. After all, most 21 year-olds struggle at AA. Likely tabbed for a return trip to Mississippi in 2016, Ruiz can be dealt with patiently as the Braves see if they can get him going in the right direction. If Ruiz is in Gwinnett by the summer, things are looking up.

9. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-
Previous Ranks: 11, 10 

Davidson has seen some ranking progression so far from 11th to 10th to 9th this time. How can a guy who hit just .242 get much praise? By adding 10 homers, 84 walks, and a .381 OBP. Now, there are some whispers that he's not aggressive enough and it paves the way for too many strikeouts, but remember that Davidson started this season at 18 in the South Atlantic League and didn't turn 19 until two months in. He never faced a pitcher younger than him and of the Top 15 youngest hitters in the SALLY, of which Davidson ranks as the 14th youngest, Davidson's .755 OPS was sixth (3rd if you limit the list to those that received 400 PA). At just 19, he still has a lot of time to mature into the power hitter that made Frank Wren pony up the money to sign him as the 32nd overall selection of last year's draft. I like Davidson's chances to go higher in the rankings in 2016.

Jenkins (Elsa | Getty)

8. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B- 
Previous Ranks: 10, 11 

On one end, it would be easy to ignore Jenkins' 2015 for what it wasn't. What it wasn't was a big strikeout year. What it wasn't was a year where hitters struggled to reach base. But what it was? It was a year in which Jenkins (mostly) stayed healthy, something he has not been able to do as a professional. The former Baylor QB recruit pitched 138.1 innings, shattering his previous best by 50 innings, and did well at AA before a late season promotion to AAA showed some cracks (more homers, for one). Now, it's worth mentioning that a 1.4 K/BB rate is not exactly going to win any awards and his strikeouts were down last year, but the Braves sought a healthy season with progression for Jenkins and got it. Now, in 2016, the real challenge begins. Can he improve his numbers and get his walks down?

7. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B 
Previous Ranks: 7, 6

ManBan opened the year with 15 starts, including his second professional shutout, for the Gwinnett Braves. While we were all aware that he was on an innings limit, he looked like he was on the right direction to finish with a big first season in the organization. His first three appearances in Atlanta in early July did nothing to erase that hope, but a few iffy outings followed by bone spurs in his surgically fixed arm led to a DL trip. Once he came back in September, he lasted a pair of ugly starts before getting shut down to get the spurs removed from his arm. So, 2015 gave us the tantalizing quality of Banuelos, who has Top 100 stuff, but has been able to throw 100 innings just twice in his eight-year career. But 2016 could be different...right?

Mallex Smith (Stacy Revere | Getty Sports)

6. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B 
Previous Ranks: 12, 9

It took me a long time to buy into Mallex and even now, I'm tempted to poke holes in his game. However, when you have the back-to-back seasons that Mallex has had, it's difficult to not be impressed. While he stole 31 fewer bases in 2015 than he did the previous year, he still stole 57 bases in 70 attempts and hit .306 with a .373 OBP. The 22 year-old wasn't quite as impressive at Gwinnett after his June promotion, but that's nit-picking and I promised I wouldn't. Some think Mallex should start 2016 in Atlanta, but unless we see some trades before now and then that clear up the outfield situation, I would rather see him in Gwinnett. Even so, he's done nothing but show that he belongs in the discussion for "who should leadoff in Atlanta?"

5. Lucas Sims, RHP, Grade: B
Previous Ranks: 3, 3 

It was another mixed bag year for Sims in 2015 after struggling in the Carolina League during the previous year. Tabbed for a return trip, Sims was not impressive in 3 of his first four starts, but just as he looked to be on his way with a pair of starts and 10 K's in 13 innings, he was involved in the mid-May Mudcats bus accident. It kept him out a month and after a pair of rehab starts, he rejoined the Mudcats in July. The Braves must have been looking for any reason to promote him up the line because after a pair of mediocre efforts, he was promoted after his July 16 start where he K'd 8 in six innings. His nine starts in Mississippi were impressive, though. He K'd over a batter an inning and while he did have control issues, he kept the ball in the park. That's where he'll likely begin 2016, but he's back on track and could be one of Atlanta's biggest surprises next season.

4. Kolby Allard, LHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: -, -

Pitchers with Top 10 talent don't often fall to #14, but when they do, you make the move and that's what the Braves did. After a lot of posturing where it looked like Allard might go to college rather than sign, Allard finally joined the organization and later made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League in August. He was held to a strict pitch count and only logged six innings in three games, but he struck out 12 of the 20 he faced while allowing no walks, a hit, and hit batsman. The Braves can afford to go slow with Allard, but he's got the skillset to dominate next season. Did I mention he just turned 18 last August 13th?

Fried (Dennis Poroy | Getty)

3. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: 4, 5

Nine days ago, Fried tweeted out some good news. "Officially graduated rehab!" The Braves have waited since last offseason to see Fried throw a meaningful pitch and while they will continue to wait until the season gets going, this was big. Fried was the best prospect in a trade that includes the Braves current starting second baseman (Jace Peterson) and the #6 prospect of my rankings (Smith). In his last "healthy" season of 2013, Fried K'd 100 in 118.2 ING with a 3.49 ERA at A-level Fort Wayne. Braves will likely be very cautious with Fried in 2016 so we may not see him break out until 2017.

2. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: -, 2 

I haven't gotten to Touki's deal in my review of the Hart/Coppolella trades, but it might be my favorite. The D'Backs effectively gave up their top pick from 2014 just to get rid of Bronson Arroyo. Crazy. His stats after the trade were inconsistent. On July 20, he threw six no-hit innings. Six days later, he gave up nine runs in 3.1 ING. Six days after that, he gave up just two hits and a run in six innings. He's a kid figuring it out, but when he can control his stuff, he is one of the best prospects in baseball, let alone the system.

Brace Hemmelgarn | Getty

1. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Grade: A- 
Previous Ranks: 8, 8

Curacao has 171.4 square miles and just over 150,000 people. If one of those 150K Curacaoians can play baseball, the Braves will find him. Albies showed up on the scene in 2014, hitting .364 with 22 steals. This year, he went to Rome, where he was among the youngest players in the league (and younger than Davidson). Albies hit all of .310/.368/.404 with 29 steals. He's undersized and doesn't have much in terms of power, but he plays a good shortstop and does everything else really well. The switch-hitter is blocked at short currently, but much like former prospect, Jose Peraza, the Braves will move him to second if needed.

Thanks for reading and tell me in the comment section where I went wrong. Oh, and be sure to visit next week when I add a player at each position to keep an eye on.

Random Prospect Sunday - Braxton Davidson

Keith Law said he had one of the best swings in the 2014 draft class. John Manual of Baseball America named him the best pure hitter and best power hitter that the Braves drafted last year. SB Nation's Matt Garrioch said that in this player, you find the rare "middle of the order impact bat." Certainly, Braxton Davidson is an intriguing prospect. Despite being given a mid-first round grade, he slipped all the way to the 32nd overall selection of the 2014 draft. If Davidson does become the player he could be, he might go down as one of the best first rounders Frank Wren's team selected despite being the last one.

Baseball America

Born June 18 in 1996, Davidson came into this world just as Jason Schmidt lost 3-2 to the Dodgers due to a pair of Mike Piazza homers. Davidson was an Asheville, NC native and would remain at home to attend T.C. Roberson High School and was committed to attend North Carolina before the Braves came calling. A pair of former T.C. Roberson players have appeared for the Braves - Cameron Maybin and Darren Holmes - but Davidson was the first player selected by the Braves out of the school since Conrad Pressley in 1972. Pressley never made it out of A-ball in his three years in the Braves system.

Davidson fell so far not because of his bat but because other teams weren't sure if he could play outside of first base professionally. Teams generally aren't anxious to select prep first basemen because the floor for being an elite first baseman is so high. But the Braves felt his hit and power tools were enough and rolled the dice he would retain enough foot speed to play in the outfield. After signing for $1.705M shortly after the draft, Davidson reported to the Gulf Coast League and the almost-18 year-old was ready for his first season.

He only had two hits in his first six games, but started to get it going and after a double header on August 12, Davidson was hitting .243/.400/.324 with 7 2B and a triple. He had yet to homer, but overall, the numbers were pretty good for an 18 year-old kid with no college experience. The Braves thought so much of his maturity that they promoted him to Danville to finish the year. He only had a half-dozen hits in 13 games in the Appalachian League, but also maintained a BB/K rate of 9/10 and carried a .348 OBP. Again, the power was non-existent, but the Braves confidently felt that was only a matter of time.

Davidson carried some franchise Top 10 rankings heading into the 2015 season even after the Braves retooled their minor league system. He responded by hitting just .243. It's been a great year for him.

Wait, what? Consider these two facts:

• Davidson has walked 81 times this year in 116 games. Yes, he's struck out 127 times, though that's not an insane number that should scare you off. Many players succeed with a 27.4% of their PAs ending in a strikeout. On the flip-side, most who walk 17.5% of the time also succeed. Among minor leaguers, Davidson is tied for ninth in walks this season. Among players whose 2015 season is classified as their age-19 year, Braxton's 81 walks are 23 more than the nearest competitor - Norberto Obeso of the Blue Jays. Braxton's walk rate is 16th in the minors.
• That age of 19 is pretty important as well. He was the third youngest batter in the South Atlantic League this season who played in at least 100 games. Admittedly, that's a little cherry-picking with the numbers because two younger players appeared in at least 98 games, including teammate Ozhaino Albies (profile), but it doesn't make Davidson's age any less amazing. Here's another fancy age-related fact. Davidson has not faced one pitcher this year who is younger than he is.
• Though he's shown a clear enough platoon split this season, he hasn't been completely lost against lefties as his .372 OBP against them does attest to. It's at least good enough to feel a bit excited about his chances to be more than a platoon bat.

The Braves are the polar opposite of a club like the Yankees when it comes to minor league development. The Yankees are notoriously cautious while the Braves aggressively push their prospects. The existence of three of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League (Davidson, Albies, and Ricardo Sanchez) shows just how confident the Braves are in the chances those young players become great assets. Davidson has a long road between now and getting to the majors. He needs show his power more consistently in games and buck the prevailing opinion that he's defensively limited to first base. But there is plenty here for us, as fans, to be excited about. 19 year-olds like Davidson just don't fall out of the sky and post a .384 OBP in low-A ball.

Here's some first-half highlights. Forgive the awful music.


More Random Prospects...
Kyle Kinman
Mallex Smith
Fernando Miranda