Should the Braves Bring Back Kelly Johnson and/or Jeff Francoeur?

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

It seems inevitable.

Maybe it shouldn't, but it really does seem like only a matter of time.

It is so expected that should the Atlanta Braves sign either Kelly Johnson or Jeff Francoeur over the next few days, it would surprise no one. The Braves have proven that when it comes to depth, they like to go to players they are comfortable with. Both Johnson and Francoeur were brought back last year and given a chance to win a job on their bench, which both did. For Johnson, it was actually the second time he re-Braved. Eric O'Flaherty, Emilio Bonifacio, and Kris Medlen are a few other players brought back for this year's roster that could eventually play for Atlanta in 2017. With the bench wide-open, why not Johnson? Why not Francoeur? Why not both?

Let's see if either, or both, are good fits for the Braves in 2017.

As I previously went over in a spring training battles preview for the bullpen, the Braves appear convinced to give the eight-man bullpen experiment a shot. I don't like the idea for an NL team that must utilize its bench on a nightly basis. Last season, the Braves did not use their bench nine times and six came in AL parks. That leaves just three times when the Braves did not use their bench for a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive replacement when they didn't have the aid of the DH. It's a rarity that a manager won't have to go to the bench two-or-three times under traditional National League rules. Yet, the Braves want to limit the bench to four players, which includes a backup catcher that managers will be apprehensive about using in case a catcher is needed later in the game.

Where does that leave the bench? Well, right now, we have a good idea about half of it. Kurt Suzuki was given a one-year, $1.5 million contract last month to support Tyler Flowers. While Anthony Recker will be given a chance to unseat Suzuki, there is a high probability that short of an injury, Flowers will be in the starting lineup on opening day with Suzuki on the bench. The other fairly known player in the mix is Jace Peterson. After 214 starts at second base the last two years, plus 13 additional starts at third base, left field, and center field, Peterson looks destined for the utility bench role many felt he would be best suited for as a prospect. With Sean Rodriguez out for potentially the whole season, Peterson will be asked to do much of what they expected out of Rodriguez, minus the lefty-bashing bat, as the newly acquired Brandon Phillips takes over at second base.

Plenty of other names are in the mix, including the aforementioned Bonifacio, Micah Johnson, Chase D'Arnaud, and Rio Ruiz. Would adding Johnson or Francoeur be an improvement?

Let's look at what each player brings the Braves. Kelly Johnson's third go-around with the Braves was brief. He played in just 49 games with Atlanta before being traded for the second consecutive season to the Mets. All in all, it was a down year for Johnson after a bit of a surprise resurgence in 2015. That year, he hit .265/.314/.435 with most of his best work coming before his July trade to New York. Last year, his numbers fell across the board, though this time, his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets. Throughout his career, the left-hand hitting Johnson has shown little preference between left-handed and right-handed pitchers with a slight edge in favor of facing southpaws.

By Sgt. Anthony Hewitt [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Francoeur was included in a late season trade to the Marlins. After playing in 100 games for the first time in three years with the Phils in 2015, Francoeur joined the Braves last year - seven years after the disappointing end to his run with Atlanta that included epic highs and massive lows. Francoeur hit just .249/.290/.381 before his trade and hit better, though with no power, with the Marlins. On the season, he had a .254/.297/.378 slash. Where he did shine, somewhat, was against left-handed pitching. His OPS saw a 90-point improvement when he had the platoon advantage. That's pretty close to his career marks, though it should be said that his .253/.293/.402 lifetime slash against right-handers makes his value limited.

Beyond the differences at the plate, what truly separates these players is defensive flexibility. The only time Francoeur has ventured away from the outfield was for a two-inning stint on the mound in 2015 and a one-inning fill-in job with the Marlins on the season's final day - a game former Braves player Martin Prado managed. Meanwhile, Johnson has played six different positions, including each position on the infield and both corner outfield positions.

If the Braves were to sign one, the final position on the bench would also be directly impacted. If the Braves signed Francoeur, it would improve D'Arnaud's position as the Braves might be more apt to keep a player with a wealth of experience at shortstop. Signing Johnson may also force that, though Peterson was a shortstop until 2014 and Johnson has made cameos at shortstop with the Mets the last two years. Neither should get much time there, but their experience may be enough to prompt the Braves into rolling the dice and only bringing up a shortstop if Dansby Swanson were to miss time.

If it were me, I'd consider Johnson because he can provide more support at multiple positions. That said, having both Johnson and Peterson could be considered redundant, though Johnson's success against lefthanders helps to differentiate himself from Peterson. As for Francoeur, you might be able to argue that he would be a decent pickup if you felt he could play all three outfield spots and possibly first base. The last time he ventured into center field was 2014 for four innings in Triple-A and he's never played first base. His bat would have to be his saving grace and we are talking about a guy who has slashed .237/.279/.372 over his last 1561 PA (five years). Again, you might say "But we need a right-handed bat off the bench for late inning lefthanders." Here's where I say "don't confuse Francoeur with Matt Diaz." If you recall, Diaz was the definition of a platoon-hitting right-handed batter who bashed lefties. Remember that five year sample I referenced a couple of sentences back? Francoeur has slashed .240/.292/.363 against southpaws since 2012. That comes out to a 73 wRC+. While his career numbers, and especially last year, are more slanted to a guy who hits lefties noticeably better, he's still only an average bat career-wise against lefties (101 wRC+). Kelly Johnson carries a 103 wRC+ against lefties and is not inept against righties (101 wRC+).

With that in mind, if I'm the Braves, I'm definitely trying to bring back Johnson. And bonus, you can trade him to the Mets again. Win-win.

What say you? Johnson? Francoeur? Both? Neither?

155 and Counting

In Atlanta, it was Saturday, but in Arizona, it was a Friday night game where the Braves, behind some good offense and the great Julio Teheran, took the first of a three-game set in the desert from the Diamondbacks 5-2. The game was most notable for being the 155th time Craig Kimbrel took over a game with a close lead and finished the game. I am one of those guys who thinks saves are way, way, WAY overvalued by both today's general managers and fans. Nevertheless, the greatness of Kimbrel simply cannot be overstated. The wild Kimbrel that made it to the bigs in 2010 has long ago faded into the efficient flame-thrower with a knuckle-curve (or spiked curveball) that has became one of the nastiest pitches in the game. So, I figure it would be a good time to look at some key moments of Kimbrel's still relatively young career.

After rocketing to the majors ahead of his 22nd birthday in 2010, Kimbrel did not get his first opportunity to nail down a save opportunity until September 19th against the Mets. After regular closer Billy Wagner has thrown a pair of innings the previous two days against the Mets, it was young Kimbrel's turn to get his shot. It was also the first real appearance of the O'Ventbrel trio that would have a brief, but incredibly effective run. Derrek Lee had hit a Grand Slam in the seventh and the Braves held a 6-3 lead. Hardly the toughest save conversion of Kimbrel's career, but he came in nevertheless and struck out Carlos Beltran looking. David Wright saw three pitches and after swinging and missing at the third one, he went back to the dugout. Ike Davis got the message and went up hacking, reaching on a swinging bunt that he barely made contact on. Not deterred, Kimbrel struck out Chris Carter swinging to end it. Like many of his saves, he struck out the side.

Kimbrel would sadly blow a postseason save conversion against the Giants, but took over full-time as the closer in 2011, getting the call on opening day against the Nationals. After Derek Lowe and three relievers kept the Nationals at bay, Kimbrel came in to preserve a 2-0 lead. Adam LaRoche flew out after a seven pitch battle. Michael Morse was sent down swinging while Rick Ankiel fought, but was caught staring at strike three.

Kimbrel would strike out the side four days later against the Brewers for his second save and first of eight saves where he recorded all three outs by strikeout. On July 2nd, 2011, Kimbrel recorded his 25th save of his career against the Baltimore Orioles. David Ross had hit a Grand Slam in the fourth and the Braves were holding onto a tenius one run lead when Kimbrel got the call in the ninth. After striking out Adam Jones, Matt Wieters would single. Former Brave Derrek Lee was desperate not to stay in the batter's box and popped out to first. Felix Pie, a future Gwinnett Brave, would strike out on a nasty curve in the dirt. Ross would throw him out.

Save #50 would come early in 2012. On April 13th, the Braves and Brewers played in a crazy see-saw affair that suited a game started by Jair Jurrjens and Randy Wolf. The Braves would chase Wolf in the fifth with the help of a three-run shot by Brian McCann and a two-run homer off the bat of Matt Diaz. They led 8-3 by the time the inning came to a close. Jurrjens would be chased in the top of the sixth. The Brewers tied it against Eric O'Flaherty in the seventh at 8 a piece, but a two-run single by Dan Uggla in the 8th gave Kimbrel a chance to get half-way to a hundred. He gave up a one out single, but struck out Corey Hart to end the game and preserve the 10-8 slugfest victory.

2012 saw Kimbrel end the game with the save and a trio of strikeouts ten times. However, save #75 saw Kimbrel throw just eight pitches to easily dispatch of the Giants on July 19th. By the end of August, Kimbrel passed both Cecil Upshaw and John Rocker to move into the top five all-time in franchise history for saves. After a rare four-day rest, Kimbrel came in with two outs in the 8th inning on September 5th. With a pair of runners in scoring position, Kimbrel struck out Jordan Pacheco. While he walked Jason Giambi in the ninth with two outs, he picked up three more strikeouts in the ninth to secure his first four-out save. Against the Marlins on September 26th, Kimbrel notched his second straight 40-save season while also striking out four in one inning after a wild pitch allowed one of those poor souls to reach base. Only John Smoltz had saved 40 games in a single season before Kimbrel and he had done it three times.

The Giants were Kimbrel's victim when he recorded his 100th career save on May 9th, 2013. He was the second-youngest and the fourth-fastest by converting 100 of his first 113 chances. On June 28th, after Teheran outdueled Randall Delgado and K'd 10 Diamondbacks batters, Kimbrel would get the call to keep the 3-0 lead. He walked a batter with one out, but got a 4-6-3 double play to end it. It was save #112 of his career, tying Kimbrel with Mark Wohlers for the third most in franchise history. It would be nearly two weeks before he passed Wohlers, but on May 9th, he struck out a pair of Marlins in a perfect ninth inning. Overall, Kimbrel only recorded all three outs by strikeouts in six of his saves that season, but he did become the second Brave to save 50 in a single season. Save #41 that year, against the Cardinals, was his only four out save of the year and amazingly, he recorded all four outs without a strikeout as the Cardinals went up hacking and Kimbrel needed just 11 pitches for the save.

At the end of last season, Kimbrel had 139 saves. He would quickly climb the leaderboards this season. After striking out the side during the second game of the season, Kimbrel tied Gene Garber for second most saves in franchise history on April 2nd by dispatching of three more Brewers for his second save of the year. Two days later, he held second place by himself as he nailed down a 2-1 win against the Nationals. From there, it was the march to 154 and beyond. On the last day of May, he got a rare save in a game decided by four runs when he entered via the "tying run on deck" qualification against the marlins, closing the door and stranding a pair.

It took a week, but on Friday night, save #155 came. Kimbrel entered with, at the time, the tying run on first and former Brave Martin Prado at the plate. After a battle, Prado was caught looking at straight-up filthy stuff. After the Braves eased the pressure with two insurance runs in the 9th, Kimbrel finished up with three more outs and a new franchise record.

And he's just 26 years old, plus a couple of weeks. If he remains healthy, more milestones will follow. And as much as I hate paying a premium for saves, having the best of the best in the ninth is pretty sweet.

August 7: My Day

I don't talk too much about myself here because frankly, this blog is about the Braves.  However, because it's August 7th, this blog, for a day, becomes about the Braves and me.  You see, today is my birthday and I'm forced to ask...how do the Braves play on my Name Day?

In 1982, I was born.  Had I been born about an hour earlier, I would have been an August 6th baby.  However, the seventh worked for me.  Later that day, the Braves faced the Dodgers and fell 7-6 in ten innings.  Steve Bedrosian, known better as Bedrocks, took the loss for a pretty good Atlanta team.  On my first birthday, we got the first of back-to-back matchups of Pascual Perez and Alejandro Pena.  Perez outpitched the Dodger 5-2 and the Braves led Los Angeles by 5.5 games in the NL West.  They would go 20-30 over their final 50 and lose their lead.  The next year, Perez was an out away from a shutout before Ken Landreaux tied it up at one a piece.  Donnie Moore lost it in the eleventh.

Only twice did the Braves not play on my birthday and they came in back-to-back years in 1985 and 1986.  In 1988, Tom Glavine started his first of three straight birthday starts with an awful 14-4 loss.  However, the next year, he pitched the Braves past the Dodgers with a four-hit shutout.  It was his fourth and final shutout of the season.  Jeff Blauser hit a third inning homerun as the only run of the game.  Also starting that day around baseball was Greg Maddux (who former Brave Pascual Perez outpitched) and Roger McDowell (who also lost).  In 1990, as this Tommy celebrated his eighth birthday, Tommy Gregg went 4-for-4 in a 7-2 loss against San Diego.

1994's Birthday Game was played days before the strike that killed the season.  It was also my first birthday following my father's passing.  Kent Mercker gave up solo homers to Barry Larkin, Brian Dorsett, and Kevin Mitchell and fell 3-2.  For some crazy reason, Mike Kelly batted third and homered.

In 1995, the Braves began a five-game win streak.  Rookie Chipper Jones had three hits, including his first major league triple, and the Braves downed the Expos 5-1.  The following season, the Braves destroyed the Phillies 14-1 in a mercy-ruled rain-shortened eight-inning game.  Fred McGriff went 3-for-5 with a homer and Javy Lopez also homered.  Denny Neagle withstood Lopez getting beaned and removed from the game in 1997, shutting the Cardinals down over 7.2 ING in a 3-0 win.

Nine years to the day after he threw a four-hitter against during the Birthday Game, Glavine threw a three-hitter, this time against the Giants in 1998.  It was the fourth Birthday Game Start for Glavine, a record.  Chipper Jones, Danny Bautista, and Javy Lopez all homered.  In 2000, Jones was a big reason for a loss as his error led to a pair of unearned runs that tied up a game and cost John Rocker a save.  Kerry Ligtenberg would lose the game in the tenth.

2005 was the absolute worst Birthday Game.  Up 3-1 in the ninth, David Eckstein hit a Walk-Off Grand Slam off Chris Reitsma.  The Braves would lose again the following season because that's what happens when Horacio Ramirez and Oscar Villarreal pitch for you.  However, they would match their winning streak of '95-'99 with a five-gamer that started with 2007's 7-3 win against the Mets.  Jeff Francoeur, who I adore (/sarcasm) went 4-for-5 with 2 2B and a HR.  Matt Diaz also homered because the opposing pitcher was lefty Oliver Perez and all DIAZ DOES IS KILL LEFTIES!

In 2009, the game was tied at 5 in the 12th when the Braves scored four times against the Dodgers in LA.  Ryan Church hit a three-run homer to help the rally along.  Pitching dominated the 2010 Birthday Game as Tim Hudson kept the Cardinals scoreless for eight innings before Billy Wagner struck out the side in the ninth with just eleven pitches to secure the 3-0 win.  The win streak reached five in 2011 when Chipper Jones, who didn't start the game, delivered a go-ahead RBI single in the top of the ninth as the Braves won 6-5.  Earlier in the game, Jason Heyward homered and so did Alex Gonzalez.  Jose Constanza followed the latter with his first major league homer.

Unfortunately, the five-game winning streak ended last year with a 3-0 shutout as Cole Hamels beat Mike Minor.

The Braves have never lost more than two Birthday Games in a row.  Overall, they are 17-12 on August 7th since my birth.  Five different hitters hit two home-runs for the Braves during the Birthday Game, though none had a multiple homer game.  Francoeur and Gregg each had four hit games.  Glavine had a pair of shutouts and Mike Hampton pitched a complete game.  Seven times, the Braves face the Dodgers, though six of those games came in the first nine while he Braves were in the NL West.

This year, the Braves face the Nationals for the first time in a Birthday Game.  The Braves did face the Expos twice and won as many as they lost.  Hopefully, Kris Medlen will bring win number 18 to Atlanta.

Strangely, no postponements on my birthday.  Just saying.

The Myth of Matt

When Atlanta allowed Matt Diaz to leave following the 2010 season, I had some mixed feelings.  I had grown to be quite fond of the guy we at Chopnation had nicknamed Magellan for his often strange ways of tracking down a flyball to left.  That said, for the money that Diaz could command, the results needed to be higher than Diaz had been able to muster in 2010 when he hit just .250 with a .319 wOBA and 0.5 WAR.  Atlanta rightfully non-tendered him, jettisoning him the same way they did Kelly Johnson.  Matty had some good years with the Braves, including three seasons of 2.0 WAR or better, and rightfully built a reputation as a left-handed pitching masher, but he had been paid $2.55M in 2010 and in arbitration, chances are he would have gotten a raise despite a bad season.

Diaz went on to sign with the Pirates for 2 years and $4M.  Good for him. 

And then, Frank Wren screwed me and brought him back in a trade last August 31st for some unGodly reason.  The Pirates chipped in some cash and the Braves would send pitcher Eliecer Cardenas to the Pirates a month later.  For what it's worth, Cardenas hasn't played this year because of injuries and isn't really a prospect to get too upset about losing. 

However, with Diaz back in the fold, the Braves had their left-handed pitching masher.  Yay!  Except, one thing.  Diaz wasn't hitting lefties with authority.  I mean, he hit .295 against them last year and while that is nice, only seven of his 32 hits went for extra bases.  A .692 OPS with no speed/defense does not make for a good platoon partner.  The previous year, he had hit .273 with an .830 OPS against lefties.  When you only have one skill that sets you apart from your co-workers, you better deliver that skill and Diaz was failing to do so last year.  Still, Wren got him because I guess (hope?) that John Schuerholtz told him about how Diaz was such a find all those years ago. 

Diaz was given the opportunity to redeem himself this year and wouldn't ya know it...he's not.  He's hitting .275 with a .754 OPS against lefties.  That's all well and good and everything, but often, the only reason he finds himself in the lineup is because the guy on the mound has the nerve to throw with his left arm.  Diaz is supposed to punish that guy.  A .754 OPS ain't cutting it. 

Having built a reputation, it's sometimes hard to shed that reputation whether it's bad or good.  Fans on facebook, Yahoo, DOB's blog, Atlantabraves.com, and a few mental hospitals in the greater Atlanta area still swear that Diaz destroys lefties.  He crushes them!  He pulverizes the shit out of them!  He grinds up their bones! 

But the results...they just aren't there.  And Atlanta is suffering.  Diaz against righties is a sad, depressing tale full of disappointment so the only saving grace is that he can destroy those tough lefties.  So far this season, Diaz is 3 of 28 against righties.  The dirty little secret is that you can try to protect Diaz, but eventually, he will face a righty and he's simply not suited to take on that task.  It's like Eric Hinske against lefties.  If you could bring both of them into a lab and mold them together, you might have a crappy bench player, but at least you wouldn't be holding up two spots on the bench for guys who supposedly have the exact same skill (severe platoon splits in their favor), but aren't producing.

Atlanta's bench has been a monumental failure this season and bringing back Diaz last year is looking like a mistake on Wren's behalf.  Something needs to be done about the black hole of WilDiSke.  Of the three, only Hinske can even say he has produced in the last three seasons.  Start with Diaz and Wilson and go from there, Frank.  Your team needs your wheeling and dealin.' 

Please, Frank.  You're our only hope.