Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:

• Stay Healthy  
• Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).

Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers

• Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
• *Arodys Vizcaino
• Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
• Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
• Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
• Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
• Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.

Current Minor Leaguers

• *Manny Banuelos
• *Josh Outman
• Brandon Beachy - 8 innings in MLB since with 7.88 ERA
• Kris Medlen - 82 innings in MLB since with 5.99 ERA, but had a dominant outing with the Florida Fire Frogs a few days back.
• Jonny Venters - 3 TJ surgeries (maybe 4?) no MLB innings since 1st surgery
• *Andrew McKirahan
• *Jesse Biddle
• *Max Fried
• *AJ Minter
• Brady Feigl- traded, pitching well in High-A for Texas
• *Jacob Lindgren
• Chris Withrow - released mysteriously, but hasn’t made it back to field. 37.2 innings of decent relief.
• Shae Simmons - briefly pitched in Atlanta last year, traded.
• *Daniel Winkler
• David Peterson - Had TJ surgery in 2013, has had relative success in the Braves minor league system.

Retired Major Leaguers

• Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
• Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.

Not currently affiliated with any team

• Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
• *Paco Rodriguez
• Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues

Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Bullpen

Read previous Spring Roster Battles Previews
Fifth Starter

The bullpen was decent enough in the first half for the Atlanta Braves, but in the second half, it took off. As a team, they had a FIP of 3.48 in 264.2 innings in the second half. Luck may have played a role as their xFIP was nearly a run higher. That is a result, I believe, of less-than-stellar walk totals and an unsustainable 6% HR/FB rate. Regardless, it was an improvement and gives the Braves something to spring into next year with.

Atlanta plans on utilizing an eight-man bullpen to open 2017. I believe that is a mistake and ultimately will be a short-lived experiment that will be scrapped when the team needs an extra bat, but let's assume that the bullpen is eight pitchers deep when the season begins. We have a good idea who four of the names will be: Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, and Mauricio Cabrera. Who will be the other half? Let's see who is in the picture.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The Surprise Second-Half Contributors: Jose Ramirez and Chaz Roe

Both are out of options. Both have always interested teams because of their raw talent. Both...sometimes can't find the strike zone. And finally, both had a really nice summer for the Braves bullpen. Will either last into 2017?

Ramirez began the year in the bullpen for the Braves, but after two appearances, he was slipped off the 40-man roster and went down to Gwinnett. He found his way there and was back in the majors for July. At that point, we saw a pitcher who had lowered his arm angle, which appeared to help him get the ball down more. From the point he returned to the Braves to the end of the season, he had a 3.44 FIP to go with a 4.86 xFIP.

Meanwhile, Roe was picked off waivers in early August and joined the Braves immediately. He was superb over 20 games, striking out 33% of the batters he faced while walking just 9%. Like Ramirez, the Braves changed his arm angle slightly and upped his slider usage dramatically to the point that nearly 60% of his pitches were his slider. The results were not only a 64% groundball rate with the Braves, but a 44% outside-the-strike zone swing percentage (PITCHf/x).

Of the two, Roe is more interesting to me. A sinker/slider pitcher, he appeared to land with a perfect pitching coach in Roger McDowell, who preached sinkers as a way to induce weak grounders. Both could be kept to at least start to the season for the same reason Ramirez was kept last year (bubble player, out-of-options).

Finally Healthy? Jesse Biddle and Paco Rodriguez 

A sly pickup by John Coppolella last spring, Biddle is coming back from Tommy John surgery. How far along he is will help decide if he competes for a roster spot this spring. I'm under the impression that he'll head to the minors so the Braves can better monitor his innings, but if that curveball is back, Biddle could be in the mix.

The Braves have been waiting since the southpaw's trade from the Dodgers to add "Paco's Tacos" to the menu. Now, the former 82nd overall pick of the 2012 draft seems ready to finally pitch for the Braves after missing all of the second half of 2015 and 2016 with injuries.

If healthy, there is little question that Paco Rodriguez is a weapon. In 124 games in the majors spanning 85.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, and 2.82 SIERA. Lefties are completely clueless against Rodriguez and have managed a .220 wOBA against him while Rodriguez has sent 35% of them back to the dugout with a K. His numbers against righties aren't nearly as amazing, though he has held his own (.271 wOBA, 3.88 xFIP) to believe he has more potential than just a LOOGY.

Again, we have to preface this with "if healthy," but if he is, the Braves will have a duo of left-handed arms that other teams will envy - and be interested in trading for in Krol and Rodriguez.

The Rule 5 Twins: Armando Rivero and Daniel Winkler

Rivero had a 2.84 FIP and 37.4% strikeout percentage in Triple-A last year. In any other system, he would have received an opportunity to thrive in the majors, but the Cubs were kind of good last year so he was left in the minors. He'll have an opportunity to win a spot on this year's team and I think he has a very good chance of doing just that.

Daniel Winkler seems likely to begin 2017 on the disabled list after his horrific fractured elbow on April 11 last year. At the time, he was off to a wonderful start to his season by striking out half of the eight batters he faced. It looked like the righty with the violent delivery could help the Braves in 2016.

When - and if - he is able to help the Braves this season is a mystery. Even if he's able to, he might not get much of a look considering the depth the Braves have. To keep him, the Braves will have to put him on the 25-man roster for nearly two months once he's healthy to fulfill his Rule 5 requirements or offer him back to the Rockies, who always need pitching.

Chrisjnelson [CC BY 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Taking a Flyer: Blaine Boyer, Sam Freeman, Eric O'Flaherty, Jordan Walden

If you missed the news, Walden's contract was voided this week as we are not seeing the progression in his rehab that had been expected.

Blaine Boyer was added a month ago after failing to secure a major league contract from anyone. This was despite some pretty good traditional numbers since he made it back to the majors in 2014 (171.1 innings, 3.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). Sabermetrics are a little less impressed with a 3.73 FIP and 4.39 xFIP. The big reason is while Boyer does a good job limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard, he doesn't miss many bats (4.6 K/9, 12.4% K% over last three years). Instead, he works off weak contact and inducing enough grounders to be successful. He's the epitome of an older style of pitching where you let your defense do its job and just focus on out-thinking the other hitter. All that matters is that it works. Over the last three years, Boyer has been a 1.1 fWAR reliever, which isn't great but ranks him 99th among 163 qualified relievers. It wasn't enough to get a major league deal, but he'll have a chance to be on the roster when the season begins.

Sam Freeman was an early pickup this offseason. Freeman has been in the majors in each of the last five seasons with his best work coming in 2014 as a member of the Cardinals. That season, he carried a 3.79 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. Unlike many southpaw options, Freeman has reverse splits, which limits his appeal. He's more likely to be a third lefty out of the pen and even then, his limitations against left-handers make that unlikely.

Eric O'Flaherty was brought back on a minor-league deal after being a last-minute addition to the roster last spring. Knee and elbow injuries limited him to 39 games last year and he wasn't particularly effective either. He had surgery on his left elbow last September to help with the tension and should be good-to-go as camp opens. His pitches last year lacked that typical O'Flaherty sink. We'll see if the surgery helped to fix that this spring.

Starting Candidates Left Over: Josh Collmenter, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz

Of this trio, Collmenter seems like the good bet to be part of the final mix. He was brought back on a $2M contract rather than being non-tendered and the Braves like his experience as a swingman who throws strikes. In an eight-man bullpen, there's certainly room for the long guy.

Depth for Gwinnett's starting staff, De La Cruz will get some innings - especially early in camp - but seems destined for a reassignment at some point. Danks could be an intriguing option, though. He's had major league success and is a bit tougher on lefties. With that said, he's going to need a tremendous spring to get in the mix for a spot out of the pen.

By StatsMP76 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Prospects: Caleb Dirks, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, Lucas Sims

This is a fun group and a mini-bullpen in its own right. While Dirks flies under the radar, the results are clearly there. In 110 games and 143.1 innings, Dirks has a 1.32 ERA, a 28% strikeout rate, and a 8% walk rate (intentional passes not included). He's allowed just six homeruns as well. Dirks lacks the big stuff or high velocity of other prospects, but in a results-driven business, he's got the resume. I imagine he'll be given a chance to produce at Gwinnett first, though.

A converted starter and former first-round pick, Hursh spent most of 2016 at Mississippi, which was the third consecutive season he did that. Hursh did pitch twice in the majors and also eight times with Gwinnett. If Bobby Cox was still the manager, he might look at Hursh as the next Kevin Gryboski and utilize him in as a "rally killer" who induces double plays. Hursh has never really lived up to his billing and probably won't start in 2017.

Speaking of haven't lived up to his billing, Luke Jackson was picked up in the Tyrell Jenkins trade. He quickly climbed to Triple-A, but has not been able to gain much momentum there. In two brief trips to the majors, he has struggled to find the strike zone and keep hitters from finding the seats when he does. The appeal is still there with Jackson hitting triple digits on the gun with an inconsistent, but devastating at times curveball. If the Braves can get him to locate his pitches and find consistency with his mechanics, he could be a high-leverage arm for them as soon as this year.

In A.J. Minter, the Braves have their "best relief prospect since Craig Kimbrel." They also have a potential x-factor for their bullpen if they feel he's ready to unleash on the National League in 2017. With a 97 mph heater that has amazing movement and a unique slider that darts into lefties and away from righties, Minter has two major-league quality offerings. If he can stay healthy, he can give the Braves yet another power arm that other teams have to game plan around in late innings. He has yet to throw in back-to-back games, but if he can cross that hurdle, the sky is the limit for his 2017 campaign.

Akeel Morris has been quietly effective for a few years now and while he doesn't have the ceiling of a Minter, he still has potential to work himself into high-leverage situations with his three-pitch mix of a mid 90's heater, solid changeup, and a slider that could make-or-break his career depending on how well he develops it. His delivery appears to come out of whack from time-to-time and I really worry about his long-term health considering how much his arm drags behind him before the ball is released. I believe his likely destination will be Gwinnett, but being already on the 40-man only helps his chances.

Finally, there is Lucas Sims. I am only including him on the chance the Braves get enamored with his potential as a reliever this spring. My belief is that he heads to Gwinnett and battles to climb the starting pitching depth chart, but many feel he is destined for a relief role at some point. Will that be 2017? It's possible.

To Sum Up...

I just gave you 18 options for four spots. Some of them are better bets than others, of course. It's hard to really nail down just what the Braves will do with the bullpen, though my bet is conservative to start the season. I think the six prospects I named are all destined for Gwinnett - though one or two could be pushed to Mississippi because of numbers. That brings us down to a dozen options. Winkler is likely to begin the year on the DL while Biddle probably needs to be brought back slowly. Now, we have ten options and I believe you can further lower that by removing De La Cruz and Danks from the discussion.

Four spots, eight names. My bet is that the Braves go with Collmenter and the two out-of-options guys in Ramirez and Roe. In that scenario, the final spot will be a three-way battle between Boyer, Freeman, and O'Flaherty - one likely to be won by Boyer. That would give us a bullpen of Johnson, Vizcaino, Krol, Cabrera, Ramirez, Roe, Boyer, and Collmenter to start the year.

If you don't like that bullpen, don't despair. The chances of the bullpen lasting even a month without injury or poor play forcing a move is minimal. At that point, we might see guys like Dirks, Jackson, Minter, and Morris start to work their way onto the team in a potentially permanent way. We could also see the Braves scrap the eight-man idea for a more conventional seven-man bullpen - which I definitely would prefer.

What does your bullpen look like? Think the Braves will go younger or do you agree that they will be more conservative to start the year? Let me know in the comments.

5-pack of Minor League Signings

With things simmering down as far as player acquisitions go, it is probably a good time to finish off the remaining reviews for minor league free agents that have been added to the Braves this offseason. This is the fourth edition of these reviews and each of those links can be found at the bottom of this article.

As always, you can see an updated list of comings-and-goings for minor league free agents.

Alay Lago, IF, 25 years-old

Born in Cuba, Lago didn't play much from 2010-2014 as a member of four teams in Cuba's premier league. A middle infielder, he defected from the island after 2014, but didn't warrant a lot of attention from major league organizations after performing in player showcases for scouts. Last February, he signed with Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz out of the Mexican League as he sought to build more interest.

A regular at third base, Lago struggled to reach base (.282) and was charged with 8 errors at third base before his season ended in May with a suspension for stanozolol and metabolites. There's not a lot of available information about Lago and what exists for the right-handed hitter hasn't been impressive to this point. If he breaks camp with a team, I have to imagine he'll be in Florida with the new Fire Frogs. That said, this was a curious signing. As is the case with two more free agent signings in this recap, sometimes the results won't be all that important if the right scout or person is vouches for you. I have to assume that's what happened with Lago.

Navery Moore, RHP, 26 years-old

This was one of the most interesting low-key signings of the entire offseason for me if only because the Braves brought back a former intriguing arm. Moore had a mid-90's fastball in high school, but his arm went kaput and the Vanderbilt commit would go under the knife. His arm was still so good that the Red Sox used a 26th rounder on him in 2008, but he went to Vandy and eventually became their closer. Three years later, the Braves picked him in the 14th round. A late signee, Moore would not pitch until that year's Arizona Fall League.

In 2012, Moore made his full-season debut and over the next two years, the righty worked as a starter as the Braves tried to get him to develop his secondary pitches. After being shutdown for most of the summer in 2013, Moore got one more shot to impress and for the third consecutive year, couldn't climb out of A-ball. The Braves released him after the year and over the next two seasons, he pitched in independent baseball for Joliet and Southern Maryland. Now 26, Moore will get a second chance to impress the Braves, who must have seen something they liked to try again with the flamethrower.

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, 32 years-old

It seems like ages ago that O'Flaherty was part of the Holy Trinity of Braves relievers. Between 2009-13, O'Flaherty had a 3.16 FIP and 1.99 ERA over 295 games. Since then, though, he pitched for two other squads, failed to make the Pirates team coming out of spring training last year, and came back to Atlanta where he significantly underwhelmed. In addition to his struggles on the field, he spent time on the DL with a knee injury and a balky left elbow. When the latter happened, we found out he had been trying to pitch through some known issues.

Here's the good news, if there is any. If the southpaw is over those issues, we'll know pretty quick by watching his fastball. Last year, his sinker failed to drop at least nine inches in horizontal movement for the first time since '09. His four-seamer saw an even more drastic fall - in that it didn't fall much, but straighten. A groundball pitcher, O'Flaherty lives off getting hitters to swing over his pitch and smash it into the ground. At his beast, he was getting 2.5 to nearly 4 groundballs to every flyball. Last year, that was down to 1.9 and that doesn't tell the whole story, either. When O'Flaherty was right, hitters were so fooled at the plate or tried to elevate the ball so much that they popped the ball up a bunch. Between 2010-13, O'Flaherty had an infield pop-up rate of 11.5%, comparable at the time to teammate Craig Kimbrel. During the same time period, among relievers with 170 innings thrown, only Mariano Rivera had a higher rate of softly hit batted balls.

But this is 2017, you say. You're right. I'm putting on my Holy Optimism, Batman! hat here and looking at the positives. Maybe O'Flaherty is a 4.18 SIERA guy now rather than a sub-3.00 SIERA guy he was at times during his first run with the Braves. However, the Braves are better able to deal with that if it unfortunately is the truth. Last year, the Braves needed O'Flaherty because their options were pretty slim. Now, with Paco Rodriguez potentially joining Ian Krol, the Braves are in a better position to just move on if O'Flaherty once again struggles. Here's hoping his performance makes the Braves have to make a pretty hard decision.

David Richardson, RHP, 26 years-old

Drafted out of Hillsborough Community College in Tampa, Florida all the way back in 2010, last season was a year of firsts for Richardson. It was the first year he ever threw more than 61.1 innings in a single season and it was also the first time he reached Double-A. And that's pretty much all there is to say about last season for Richardson.

Once a highly thought-of outfielder, Richardson has done nothing but pitch for the Orioles. Information on him is pretty minimal, which is kind of expected from a guy who has never been much of a prospect and mostly logged time in the lower minor leagues as a reliever. His strikeout rate has been decent, though unspectacular, while his FIP has been in the 3.50-3.75 range most years. Richardson is the type of pitcher who likely caught a scout's eye, though without a strong spring, he might be cut before appearing in his first official game with the system.

By KamenG [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jordan Walden, RHP, 29 years-old

Old Hoppy is back in the fold and it's time to remember just how dominant Walden was before injuries derailed him. Over 243 career games, Walden has a 10.8 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 along with a 2.76 FIP/3.27 xFIP/2.92 SIERA. Basically, he has been really good when he's been able to stay on the mound - something he was not able to do with the Cardinals. He missed most of 2015 with shoulder issues and never threw a meaningful pitch in 2016 due to recurring shoulder problems and a grade 2 lat strain. Will he be healthy? Well, there is a reason why he came dirt cheap. Until we see him pitch regularly, we can't know if he is healthy and/or can stay that way.

Walden was a perfect, sound pick-up by the Braves. Obviously, they invested precious little to find out if Walden is close to being back. If the answer is yes, they have a cheap high-leverage arm who posted a 2.80 FIP as a Brave. Such a finding could make the Braves better able to compete for a playoff spot or repackage Walden for a future asset at the deadline. Smart teams make smart signings and there is no doubt that throwing some peanuts at Walden is a really smart signing.

That finishes off the minor league signings recap. If the Braves add more free agents on minor league deals, I'll likely recap them individually.

For more minor league free agent recaps, click below.
November 27, December 4, December 19, December 31, or check here for the complete rundown.

The 2017 Braves Bullpen Could be Something Special

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

In the early months of the 2016 season, the Atlanta Braves had a big problem. Their bullpen was one of the worst in baseball. InApril, the pen combined for a 5.10 ERA and -0.1 fWAR. This was largely due to walks, something that no other team was worse at than the Braves before May. They weren't being aided in any way by a .326 BABIP, third worst in the majors. Atlanta used 14 different guys in a relief role during the month, including Matt Wisler, which is less than ideal when you consider the team was a month into the season.

But things would begin to change. In May, they finished with a monthly ERA of 3.91 (next to a 3.26 FIP) and dropped to the middle of the pack in walks as a percentage. Meanwhile, they continued to strike out a ton of guys. Even more, they were starting to find a group of guys to rely on. Arodys Vizcaino was deadly during the first few months and after early season issues, Jim Johnson would return after an injury and flourish. The unsung hero, though, was Ian Krol. After being cut in camp, Krol came back to the majors with a vengeance and developed into the best full-inning lefthander the Braves have had in a few years.

The pen would continue to move guys in-and-out, but by August, they had found a few new arms to rely on. Mauricio Cabrera surprised many by throwing strikes while the Braves were getting big lifts from Chaz Roe and Jose Ramirez. By the final month, the Braves' pen was reaching elite status.

Let's look forward to 2017. While the Braves have been busy adding depth to the starting rotation, the pen hasn't been reshaped much at all. The team re-upped with Johnson, who had a 2.29 FIP and 3.09 xFIP after returning from the DL in June. They added a number of arms to compete for innings, but left the pen to be decided later.

Turns out that may have been a good idea.

In Johnson, Krol, Vizcaino, and Cabrera, the Braves have a quartet of pitchers who combined for a 25% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, 3.1 fWAR, and a FIP of about 3.10 (take with a grain of salt as I used an average). That's including Vizcaino's late struggles after he fought oblique and shoulder issues.

Of course, one might and maybe should rain on my parade. Of the four I mention, only Johnson has a real history of success (and a recent history of great failure). It's important to remember that, but anytime you can realistically head into the season with a core of four arms that put up the kind of success this quartet did last season, you have to feel good about the future.

Those four can't do it alone, though. How good the Atlanta Braves bullpen in 2017 depends on who fills out the other slots. Braves fans remember just how badly the Braves struggled down the stretch in 2011 as the trio of Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty began to struggle with the workload because Bobby Cox lacked competent options to fill in. Brian Snitker may not have to worry about that, though, because there are a number of exciting arms to jump from J.V. to Varsity.

I mentioned Ramirez and Roe before. Neither has had much success in the majors, but both pitched exceptionally well down the stretch. Ramirez has some issues - his 5.03 xFIP suggests he may struggle moving forward. Roe, on the other hand, had an even better FIP (1.75) and xFIP (2.75) than his ERA of 3.60. A groundball pitcher who K'd well over a batter an inning with good control? More of that, please.

Daniel Winkler and Shae Simmons have one thing in common. If healthy, each can be x-factors in anyone's pen. Add Luke Jackson to the discussion and even if only one of that trio becomes a trusted asset in 2017, it'll bring the core four some depth to allow them to have nights off without the Brave manager getting a bit antsy about their replacements.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (P. Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Left-hander Paco Rodriguez hasn't pitched in the majors since May 29, 2015, but don't sleep on him being a big part of the 2017 pen. In 85.1 innings in the majors, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP/3.00 xFIP built on solid control and an excellent strikeout rate. He's been deadly in high leverage (opposing .202 wOBA) and righties have only been moderately more successful than lefties (.271 wOBA versus .220).

I can go on. Rule 5 pick Armando Rivero has upside, veterans Eric O'Flaherty and Jordan Walden could be salvageable, John Danks has left-hand reliever potential, and Josh Collmenter has value in long relief. Young arms like Bradley Roney, Evan Phillips, Steve Janas, Akeel Morris, Chad Sobotka, Caleb Dirks, and Kyle Kinman need only to take that next step like Mauricio Cabrera.

And then, there is a guy like A.J. Minter. If you look up the word "dominance" in the dictionary, there is a picture of Minter. In nearly 35 innings last year over three stops, Minter K'd 47 next to just 11 walks. We knew he was a first round talent when the Braves drafted him in 2015 and once finally healthy, he put on a show. What can he do over a full season?

A hidden weapon might have been those veteran starters the Braves picked up. Only four more teams had bullpens that logged more innings than the Braves (567.1 innings) and only one made more calls to the pen. That's in no small part of a cause of a starting rotation that averaged 5.5 innings per game, 19th best in the majors. Of the ten playoff teams, only the Dodgers and Orioles were worse. Aaron Blair (15 starts) and Williams Perez (11 starts) each failed to average 5 innings a start. Bartolo Colon averaged 5.8 innings per start despite being 43 years old. R.A. Dickey also averaged 5.8 while Jaime Garcia averaged 5.5 innings per start. If you add that to Julio Teheran's workhorse 6.3 innings per start and Mike Foltynewicz's 5.6 innings per start, you get an average of roughly 5.8 innings per start. That would have have been right in tune with the Washington Nationals, Cleveland Indians, and New York Mets - all playoff teams in 2016. While the difference of .3 innings per start may not wow you, it's like having your starting staff throw 40 to 60 more innings. Not only will the extra innings likely be quality frames, they will put less of a strain on your bullpen.

Listen, I know there are nearly as many questions about this bullpen as there are reasons to be excited. But despite the fact that the Braves have refused to significantly alter a bullpen that finished 2016 14th in fWAR and 24th in xFIP, I believe that the pen is destined for very big things next year and beyond. Sure, not all things will go the Braves' way and relievers have a tendency to just "lose it." Nevertheless, this pen has a chance to be pretty special.

Another 5-Pack of Minor League Signings

Recently, I looked at five minor league free agents the Braves have signed for 2017. You guys gave me a lot of views and clicks so here I am back for more. Just a reminder - I have an updated collection of minor league free agents in the navigation line up top or you can click here to view it with links to their B-Ref pages.

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B, 27 years-old

For the second consecutive offseason, the Atlanta Braves are running away with the Interesting Names Championship. Fuenmayor just finished his first decade of baseball and has now played in nearly 700 minor league games. After flaming out in the Jays' organization, Fuenmayor became an interesting bat after belting 23 HR to go with a .993 OPS for Quebec in the independent Can-Am League in 2014. That got him a job in the Royals' organization and he continued to crush the ball with a .358/.384/.589 overall slash in 2015 while spending most of the season at Double-A. Last year, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (AAA), Fuenmayer came back to Earth in a disappointing manner.

Fuenmayor is a fine minor league bat - when facing left-hand pitching, which he destroys. He's rarely handled right-handed pitching, though, and is pretty limited to first base. He's adequate at playing that position, though his bat is unlikely adequate FOR the position. Fuenmayor is a guy to fill out a Gwinnett Braves lineup. That said, it's a cool name to have in your lineup so there's that.

By User SD Dirk on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr
as "Sean Kazmar") [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Sean Kazmar, SS, 32 years-old

You have to appreciate a guy like Kazmar. In 2008, he appeared in 19 games for the San Diego Padres. In the eight years that have followed, he has played 743 games at Triple-A and has yet to be promoted back up to the majors. The last four years have been spent at Gwinnett, where he is now seven games short of tying Jose Constanza's team record for games played. He's already the career leader in doubles for Gwinnett with 76. Last season, "Kaz" saved his best for the playoffs and hit three homeruns and even had a 4-for-4 night when things mattered the most.

Kazmar can play all four infield positions and seems to be well liked by most people I've read who have encountered him. I had hoped the Braves might throw him a bone and call him up in September, but sadly, that did not happen. With even better depth this season, the chances of Kazmar seeing time in the bigs went from slim to microscopic. But something tells me that Kazmar is going to be a Braves fixture well beyond the time he eventually hangs it up.

Adam Kolarek, LHP, 27 years-old

After six years spent in the Mets organization, the former Maryland product tried his luck with Tampa Bay. The full-time reliever faired well in 2016 while spending time in Double-A and Triple-A. Kolarek has been around the game for some time. His dad, Frank, was a catcher in the A's system in the late 70's before becoming a baseball scout. Adam, a lefthander, works off a low-90's fastball that has glove-side movement and depth. He also has a slider (for lefties) and a changeup (for righties).

The Braves are searching for a lefty to pair with Ian Krol. The smart money is on Paco Rodriguez, who just agreed to a deal for 2017. However, could Kolarek play a role? Outside of 2014, Kolarek has handled lefties very well. Right-handed batters, on the other hand, is a different story. Could Kolarek still have a shot to stick? Well, sure, but I doubt Atlanta is anxious to go with Kolarek unless forced to.

By Joel Dinda on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Blake Lalli, C/1B, 33 years-old

The Braves brought back Lalli after outrighting him off the roster after the season. Last year, Lalli got his first taste of the big leagues since 2013 and went 2-for-13 with a double - his first major league extra base hit. That leaves the 33 year-old 7-for-52 in the majors with a double, a walk, and 13 strikeouts.

But he can catch. For that matter, he can pitch (has done it 23 times, including 3 times last year). But it's the catching that brings him job security right now. The Braves don't really have many better options at Triple-A and he often plays first base as well, which gives him a bit more value. He'll likely be a mid-to-late spring cut before heading to Gwinnett to begin the season.

Elian Leyva, RHP, 26 years-old (maybe?)

This one was a strange signing. The Braves, who have just had zero luck with Cuban imports outside of Adonis Garcia, brought Leyva aboard last month. For nine seasons, Leyva was an unimpressive righty in the Cuban National Series (Serie Nacional). Almost used exclusively as a reliever from 2007 until 2014, Leyva walked more batters than he struck out, had a 5.68 ERA, and wasn't even on anyone's list of potential Cubans to keep an eye on.

And then, he found work in Spain. Yes, they play baseball in Spain. Actually, you'd be surprised how many small baseball leagues there are around the world. Moved to the starting rotation, Leyva logged 64 innings over ten outings with an ERA under 1.00 with 82 K's to just 17 walks. Now, I've looked, but I have not found any park factors for Spain. That's not true. I didn't even try. Still, I would imagine that Spain's league is comparable to maybe the Pecos League or close to it. Those numbers he posted must have brought a scout out (do the Braves have a European scout?) and the Braves signed him. It'll be a fun name to keep in mind, but obviously, the expectations are super low here.

2016 Player Reviews: Jose Ramirez, Anthony Recker, Paco Rodriguez

This is the eleventh edition of the 2016 Player Reviews. My quick math tells me that I've done 33 little blurbs about players from last year's team who could return in 2017. A dozen remain. Hopefully, next year, the Braves don't use more players than the Falcons so I don't have to do this again.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Jose Ramirez, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: The major league season is long. From the point pitchers report to camp in February until a hopeful trip to postseason play in October, a lot can happen. For Ramirez, he was given a chance to right the ship and finished strong to keep him in Atlanta's plans for 2017. Out-of-options, Ramirez opened the year with the major league team, but after two appearances in which 9-of-15 batters faced reached base, the Braves decided they had already seen enough and banished Ramirez to the minors. It was a quick decision, but he had walked four over just two innings of work. He posted some big strikeout numbers upon his arrival in Gwinnett, but continued to walk a lot of batters as well. The Gwinnett and minor league coaches continued to work with him and over a two-month period, Ramirez walked just 8 over 25.1 innings. With the Braves' bullpen getting a trade deadline remodel, Ramirez returned to the majors near the tail-end of July. His control wasn't as pin-point as it had been in Gwinnett, but it was much improved and he logged an impressive 30.2 innings down the stretch.

2017 Projection: One change that was evident with Ramirez once he returned to the majors was that his release point was a little lower, giving him a bit more pronounced three-quarter's delivery. It also gave him better heat and the ability to throw first-pitch strikes. The Braves pushed Ramirez to nearly drop his changeup in favor of a bigger use of his hard slider. The results were solid and Ramirez will have a shot to win a spot in next year's pen. Now, there are some concerning issues with Ramirez. While he lowered his FIP to 3.94 by year's end, that was nearly a run lower than his expected FIP. Part of that was due to an unusually low amount of homeruns (5.4% per flyball). That is unlikely to continue and even though Ramirez's control was better, a 12.6% rate is still 4% above average. There are some things here to really like, but there are some problematic pitfalls to deal with as well. Ramirez will be 27 when the 2017 season opens. Power arms will always have a shot to turn the corner and Atlanta is hoping Chuck Hernandez and the new Braves pitching gurus can work some magic with Ramirez.

Anthony Recker, C, 33 years-old

2016 Review: BABIP is a fun stat. Heading into this season, Recker had a BABIP of .249. It was a testament to how bad of a hitter Recker had been. Then, over a 33-game run after getting the callup to Atlanta, Recker's BABIP jumped nearly hundred points and suddenly, he had a triple slash of .278/.394/.433. It was pretty surprising since his minor league numbers weren't nearly that impressive either. Also astounding was how he shaved 10% off his K% and re-purposed about 5% to his walk rate (not sure how one does that, but Recker's special).

2017 Projection: Okay, Recker didn't suddenly turn into a hitting God overnight. He simply did not have enough time for his numbers to regress to the mean. Expecting the now 33 year-old with a career 1.8 fWAR to have a 2016-like encore performance would be a bit much. Recker's not bad as far as depth goes, but the Braves will likely non-tender him rather than go through arbitration and offer him a return trip via a minor league contract. He may take his chances elsewhere and if he does, do not fret. If his numbers regress - and they will - you are left with an okayish backstop with poor pitch framing metrics, decent walk numbers, and a bit of pop. It's not the worst guy to stash at Triple-A, but the Braves should do better for their major league team.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Paco Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Paco Rodriguez, LHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: Acquired in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera trade in July of 2015, the Braves had hoped that Rodriguez, who was rehabbing from bone spurs removal surgery at the time, would eventually play a role for the team by September that year. Instead, he would undergo Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2016 as he rehabbed from the operation.

2017 Projection: In Rodriguez, the Braves have a quality arm with already 124 games of major league experience since being picked in the second round of the 2012 draft. Righties struggle against him while lefties are a lost cause (a career split of .174/.245/.234 with 4.8 K/BB). Overall, Rodriguez had a career FIP/xFIP of 2.98/3.00 before injuries put him on the shelf. A rarity for a reliever, Rodriguez utilizes three pitches with regularity including a sinker that he can run in at about 90 mph if healthy and an 86-88 mph cutter along with an 80 mph slider. He even sprinkles in a four-seamer and circle change at times to keep righties off balance. If he's back, the Braves have a crafty lefty who can give the team more productivity than simply getting left-handed batters out. Atlanta might try to baby him, especially early on, and try to avoid back-to-back's, but provided he's good to go in 2017, he'll be an integral part to the revamped and improved 2017 Atlanta bullpen.

See Also
Transaction Tuesday: Recker, Adonis, Minter, Yepez
Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith
What Can the Braves Learn from the Cubs?

2016 Player Reviews: Matt Marksberry, Andrew McKirahan, Eric O'Flaherty

It's Southpaw central today here at Walk-Off Walk as three lefties are up next in the 2016 Player Review series. Amazingly, there are still six sets of players left to review. Jeez, the Braves used too many players in 2016.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Matt Marksberry, LHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: First off, it's great to know that Marksberry seems out of the woods as far as his health scare goes. Just over a week ago, a story broke in which Marksberry was on life support with a collapsed lung. Twitter can be a very useful social media tool, but it can quickly muddle the facts in a developing situation. Marksberry did have a health emergency as he was critically dehydrated with a sodium level that plummeted so low that Marksberry had a seizure. He is much improved now so we can look more at the baseball side of things. A year after appearing in 31 games for the Braves bullpen, Marksberry failed to impress last spring and actually opened the year with Mississippi. After a quick promotion, he received his longest run with any team in 2016 after joining Gwinnett, appearing in 28 games. Marksberry's ERA was nice and tidy, but he was a bit too prone to work his way into trouble via the walk. Before his season came to a close in late July with shoulder issues, Marksberry appeared in four games with the big league club and had little success.

2017 Projection: Marksberry has a nice following on Twitter and is very approachable as a genuine and likable guy. But results are what keep players in the majors and the results really aren't there to this point for the now 26 year-old. He could have a future as a left-hand specialist as a major league split of .172/.273/.310 indicates when he has the platoon advantage. That includes a nearly 23% strikeout rate, but I should also mention that this includes  a short-sample size (66 total batters faced) and .214 BABIP. That's not to say that it's all flukish - only that it should give one pause when it comes to projecting continued success for Marksberry. The shoulder concerns in 2016 certainly are worrisome as well. For their part, the Braves designated Marksberry for assignment and outrighted him to Mississippi following the season. He'll be in the mix come spring provided he's able and with everything he went through, he'll certainly be a fan favorite. With Ian Krol and Paco Rodriguez potentially in the fold, for the first time in awhile, the bullpen doesn't look like a revolving door of arms especially from the lefthand side. That said, after the last couple of weeks Marksberry has had, it's hard not to root for him to be on the roster when the 2017 season kicks off.

Andrew McKirahan, LHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: Not much to speak of after the lefty was removed after one appearance and just five pitches this spring and later diagnosed with a torn UCL. It was the second time the lefty underwent Tommy John surgery after missing most of the 2012 season because of the same operation. After spending the year on the 60-day DL, McKirahan was, like Marksberry, outrighted to Mississippi after the season ended.

2017 Projection: I was a big fan of McKirahan before the 2014 Rule 5 draft, where the Marlins selected him from the Cubs' organization. After he failed to stick with Miami, the Braves got him off waivers as the 2015 season was beginning. A PED suspension limited McKirahan to just 27 games in 2015 and the results were pretty ugly. When healthy, McKirahan flashes some extreme groundball ability with a fourseam fastball and sinker combo (though he rarely throws the sinker) along with a slider that drops down. His big issue, though, is that he has only one pitch that he can induce some whiffs on - the slider. However, for it to be effective, he has to pitch ahead and his hard stuff gets smacked around pretty good. He has some impressive numbers in the minors and unlike Marksberry, McKirahan has good control. But does he have the stuff to pitch at this level? We'll get a shot to find out in 2017 if he's healthy.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Eric
O'Flaherty") [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, 32 years-old

2016 Review: Ugly. That's how one might describe O'Flaherty's season. Picked up right before the season after he failed to impress the Pirates, O'Flaherty returned to the team where he became a tremendous asset for five seasons. However, he wasn't that guy anymore. His sinker has lost bite, his slider is too straight, and he's lost a tick or two with his heater. As the season progressed, it became clear that what we were watching wasn't the O'Flaherty we remembered so fondly. In August, he hit the DL with an elbow injury and later underwent surgery to fix the issue.

2017 Projection: While O'Flaherty is likely moving forward in his rehab and should be ready, provided there are no setbacks, to pitch this spring, it seems unlikely it will be for the Braves. While the depth at left-hand relief is one reason, O'Flaherty has a 5.49 ERA in 120 games since the start of 2013. Even if O'Flaherty has a clean bill of health, it would be a surprise to see him succeed in the majors again.