Reaction: John Coppolella Resigns in Disgrace

For three years, John Coppolella was treated as a wunderkind. The Notre Dame graduate who had cut his teeth in the Yankees organization before coming south, Coppolella represented a new era for the Atlanta Braves. He seemed ultra-capable in fleecing other teams of prospects and draft choices while also bringing together a talented group of scouts and assistants to comb the globe for new talent. Under his leadership, the Braves' scouting department flourished and with his background in statistical analysis, he seemed like the perfect blend of the traditional mindset and more modern approach. Coppolella gave Braves fans hope. Coppolella convinced fans to trust the process.

Around one in the afternoon on Monday morning, that trust was irrevocably broken as Coppolella resigned from his position in disgrace. While details are currently sketchy, we do know that under Coppolella, the Braves ran afoul of "rules regarding the international player market." Others have suggested domestic spending in the draft may also be involved. In addition, as Jeff Passan tweeted, "Coppolella's treatment of Braves employees" was also put under the microscope. Maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised.

It was a little more than a month ago that Ken Rosenthal penned a piece for The Atlantic about the level of discord in the Braves' front office. At the time, it seemed limited to problems between Coppolella and Hart on one side and the old guard of John Schuerholz and his guys on the other. However, the issues in the front office went beyond that as we found out today. With the general manager now out of the way, the narrative changed from the local stories of how capable Coppolella was to the tweets many national writers were not writing before the news broke. With Coppolella in charge, people like Rosenthal and Passan couldn't unleash their observations on the character of Coppolella because they needed him for quotes and news. With him gone, the tweets began to come out in droves of how poorly thought-of by the industry Coppolella was and how no one was sad to see him go.

Some of that could be sour grapes. After all, Coppolella did fleece many general managers. However, it seems to go deeper than that and it appears like Coppolella - for all of his good qualities - rubbed many people the wrong way. This is not unlike the man he basically replaced in Frank Wren and it's amazing that their dismissals carry much of the same narrative, though Wren's firing was far more simplistic and seems much more contained. Wren was hated by many people close to the Braves. Coppolella was hated by seemingly the industry he worked in. As Passan pointed out, the news about Coppolella brought "a lot of schadenfreude right now."

There were will be much more detailed reporting to come in regards to what the Braves did under Coppolella and retrospectives of his time with the Braves, but the striking thing to me is that a guy who was regarded as such a capable general manager might never work in a baseball front office again. Again, you can compare this to Wren. He found work. He may have burned every bridge possible in Atlanta, but he was still respected outside of the south. Coppolella seems outright loathed.

The word many used to describe Coppolella was "relentless." That aided him - and the Braves - in an organizational reset that saw Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel traded within months of Wren's removal. That was followed up by moving Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller, bold moves to bring in a higher-class of talent than the Braves had been able to acquire in the trades the previous winter. However, his relentless "make this happen" approach also led to deals for Hector Olivera and wasting Kimbrel's value just to get rid of Melvin Upton Jr. Coppolella was creative, that much is true. But he wasn't perfect - even when the Atlanta-area media (or bloggers like myself) made it sound like he was.

Moving forward, the Braves have what could be a highly-coveted position available should other general managers not shy away due to the questions regarding whatever punishments should await the Braves. The best case scenario is that the Braves pay fines and possibly have restrictions put on them in the international and/or domestic markets. The worst case? The Braves get all of those restrictions and fines plus lose prospects - maybe even Kevin Maitan, according to Passan's latest article. While details remain fuzzy, the fact Coppolella resigned leads me to brace for the worst. Similar to a college program giving player under-the-table benefits, the Braves may have done the same with Maitan which could force Major League Baseball to bring the hammer down. Passan also sheds light on some possible negotiating issues the Braves had with Drew Waters after selecting the outfielder this offseason. According to the report, some benefits were offered to Waters to make up in the difference between the signing bonus he received and the slot value he could have received. Both prospects rank among the top handful of position prospects currently in the Braves' system and there's a possibility these players are the tip of the iceberg.

The chance of dealing with sanctions from this mess awaits the next general manager, whoever that might be. Some have suggested Dayton Moore is a natural fit and he kind of always has been. Had he not left before Schuerholz's retirement, it likely would have been Moore and not Wren who got the keys to the castle. Perhaps Coppolella never rises to the top in the Braves' organization and perhaps we never live the darkest timeline. The good news is that even if the worst case scenario awaits the Braves, the system will continue to be stocked with talent - even if they lose some of their best ones.

Braves fans - and I consider myself one - found it easy to like Coppolella especially if you could trust the process. He marketed himself well, something that may have made it even easier for rival general managers to hate him. Whether it was candid interviews or through lengthy Q&A's with Braves fans, referred to as #AskCoppy, the former Braves general manager was far less reserved than most general managers who often only spoke during press conferences in a rehearsed manner. Zealous, but also patient, Coppolella built a collection of young talented envied throughout the game.

It was easy, with Coppy reassuring us, to trust the process. It'd work out.

It's almost ironic. This was finally the first year that we began to see the fruits of Coppolella's labor play out. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson up the middle. Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo at third. Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and Max Fried all starting games for the team in September. A.J. Minter coming out of the pen. And the best was yet to come as Ronald Acuna, Mike Soroka, and Kolby Allard all appear primed to appear in the majors in 2018. The process is getting closer and closer to bringing success to a city starving for their baseball team to once again be among the game's elite.

And it still should be that way. The Braves are still on the rise. The Nationals will still have to worry about the Braves in the coming years. None of that has changed. In their beautiful new ballpark, the Atlanta Braves will be contenders sooner rather than later.

It just won't be with the guy who helped make it happen anymore.

Ender Inciarte Makes Atlanta his Long-Term Home

Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop) (CC 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Two days before Christmas, Ender Inciarte received a nice Christmas present. Or, maybe it was the other way around? Maybe Mom was right when she told me that giving a gift was a present in its own right.

The Braves and their new center fielder agreed upon a five-year contract worth at least $30.525 million. A sixth season option would increase the overall value of the deal to $38.5 million. Inciarte was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and as a Super 2 player, he would have been arbitration-eligible for three more years. In essence, the Braves bought out at least one of his free agent years and if they exercise his option, they will have the defensive wonder through his Age-31 season.

While this contract cannot possibly be reasonably argued against, there are questions about Inciarte that remain valid despite a solid first year in Atlanta. Notably, he lacks any real defining skill offensively. While this is completely true, Inciarte makes the most of his skillset and has shown improvement as he's matured into a more seasoned veteran. Last year, he increased his walk rate 3% upon the previous year. He improved his contact rate while doing it, which meant he simply swung the bat less - a sign of a better eye. He lowered his groundball rate and increased his line drive percentage. That leads to more hits.

However, no matter what Inciarte does at the plate, in a good year, he'll merely rise to above average with the bat when league and park factors are weighed. What earned him a contract was his superb base running and defense. First, let's go over the base running because his defense is already well renowned.

Base running is one of those things that can be difficult to quantify and even harder to know how to quantify. Our old method was limited to stolen base numbers. If Player A was successful in, say, 80% of his stolen base attempts, he was a good base runner. However, now, we can better judge base running through metrics like BsR and some of the other numbers we can find at Baseball-Reference.

For instance, B-R keeps track of how many times a runner took the extra base. In his two years with the Diamondbacks, Inciarte advanced an extra base 29% and 40% of the time. The latter is roughly the major league average. In his first season with the Braves, 52% of the time, he took an extra base by going to first-to-third on a single or first-to-home on a double. While not in the same company as some of the elite speedsters and base runners in the game, it was a solid improvement for Inciarte. He was also successful in 70% of his stolen base attempts, which is close to league average.

Fangraphs paints an even rosier picture of Inciarte's base running prowess. With a 4.3 grade, Inciarte finished 2016 as the 21st best base runner in baseball. When you take into account the last two seasons, Inciarte moves up a bit to 16th best with a 7.6 overall grade. To put that into perspective for Braves fans, one guy we loved to watch on the base paths was Jason Heyward. Over the last two years, Heyward has a grade of 9.0 - ninth in baseball.

When it comes to defense, Inciarte is one of the five-best center fielders in baseball and you might be able to lower that number to three or four-best. Unfortunately, because he played a lot of left and right with the D'Backs, he doesn't rank very highly when you judge multiple seasons in regards to center fielder numbers. However, in the context of 2016, there is Kevin Pillar, Billy Hamilton, Inciarte, and a little bit of space before Jackie Bradley Jr. While he did play some left field and missed time with an injury, Inciarte still finished third in UZR/150, tied for second in rPM (Plus Minus Runs Saved), fourth in rARM (Outfield Arm Runs Saved), and third in DRS. Inside Edge ranks him a bit below Pillar and Hamilton as far as range goes and he doesn't make many remote or unlikely players, but Inciarte is as good as it gets when it comes to borderline, likely, and almost certain plays.

Here is a couple of things to keep in mind. What does Inciarte's contract extension mean for Mallex Smith? Probably not good things. To play both Inciarte and Smith, the Braves would be committing to two positions with very little pop. Remember that Ozzie Albies, the presumptive long-term option at second base, also lacks very much power. That would mean that on any given day, nearly half of the lineup (once you add the pitcher) would be full of guys who may never reach double figure homerun totals. On the flipside, with a fairly team-friendly contract, Inciarte becomes an even better trade asset. Teams will already be able to know how much Inciarte will be paid through what we can assume is the prime of his career. One could also suggest that the Braves do not grade Smith as highly as many fans do and think of him more as a fourth outfielder/platoon option than a full-time guy.

No matter how this plays out, this contract means two things to me. One, the John Hart-led contract extension frenzy of 2013-14 might be back on. During that offseason, the Braves signed Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, Chris Johnson, and Craig Kimbrel to long-term extensions. The latter two would be later dismissed, but Teheran and Freeman have blossomed into cornerstones. While Inciarte was the obvious choice for a contract extension this offseason, could we be that far away from considering Dansby Swanson a candidate for a contract extension? If Mike Foltynewicz or Matt Wisler take a monster step forward in 2017, could they be in line for an extension? Hart kept the young nucleus of the Indians together this way once before.

Second, this contract makes the Shelby Miller deal last winter look even better. While I have my concerns about Aaron Blair, the Braves have team control of Inciarte and Swanson through the 2022 season. If Blair figures it out, even better. Miller, along with Tyrell Jenkins, were once the early foundation of a future Braves winner. They were since turned into an even better foundation for a future Braves winner that has already developed into a pair of new franchise cornerstones to go with Teheran and Freeman.

All in all, I didn't expect a contract extension this winter, but I'm glad to see it. Inciarte is a great player to have around at a premium position. You just don't find 3+ fWAR guys on five year deals worth a shade more than $30 million anymore.

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #3

Halfway home in this series as I alternate back to the "Best" side with a draft that produced just two established major leagues so far, but their impact on the Braves is significant.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

3rd Best Draft Since 2000 - The 2007 Draft

Credit: Tommy Poe / Freeman and Heyward with
Myrtle Beach in 2009

At first glance, 2007 was a win - but it could have been so much more. Questionable picks after the second round kept this draft from being more than it could have been. Fortunately, two stars were acquired early on to make this draft a major asset for the Braves.

The season of 2006 was a massively disappointing year for the organization. One year after graduating a host of youngsters known as the Baby Braves to the majors, Atlanta struggled to stay within striking distance of the New York Mets, who ran away with the NL East title. Atlanta was meandering through the season until June hit. That month, they would flat-line into a 6-21 run that the Braves could not recover from. The big problem was that the rotation - long a strength for the Braves. It didn't help that Chris Reitsma was blowing games left-and-right, not that Jorge Sosa couldn't harness whatever made him a decent pitcher for the '05 team.

The only thing positive to come from the 2006 season was that the 79-83 season gave way to the #14th overall pick of the '06 draft. That wasn't all as the defection of Danys Baez (remember him?) gave the Braves a supplemental first round choice (#33rd) and the Orioles' second rounder (#69 overall). Atlanta also had their second rounder, the 78th overall, inside the Top 100. The scene was set for a big draft haul.

The stars aligned in another way. The Atlanta Braves were desperate to draft Jason Heyward, a potential franchise keystone. However, would he be available at #14? Baseball America had ranked him the ninth best prospect heading into 2007 and remarked that no one had a bigger upside. Of course, Atlanta has never been shy about finding some less-than-honorable ways to open the doors to acquire the local talent they want. Allegedly, that is. Atlanta put up a smokescreen to avoid looking too interested in Heyward, least they tip their hand. Working in the Braves' favor was Heyward's reputation as a fearsome hitter to gameplan around. While the Braves had been scouting him since he was 11 and kept an eye on him in summer league games where he would use a wooden bat, other teams focused on his high school games. Pitchers were afraid to throw to him and Heyward, as we would later learn, was a patient hitter.

But still, the Braves needed luck. Ed Creech, the Pirates scouting director and Georgian native, passed on him. The Rockies, Nationals, and Indians also passed on him - due in no small part to not seeing him swing the bat enough. However, one team was very interested and picked two picks in front of the Braves. The then-Florida Marlins area scout, Brian Bridges, compared Heyward's swing to Willie McCovey and told anyone who would listen that Heyward was the real deal. In a private workout with the Marlins, Heyward belted homers on half of the 60 pitches he saw. But the Marlins, citing Heyward's signability, went with 3B Matt Dominguez and then paid him $100K more than Heyward got. Bridges felt the Marlins were using Dominguez's position as the deciding factor, believing it would be easier to find a right fielder than a third baseman. In their defense, 64 picks later, they took Giancarlo Stanton.

Atlanta's war room went crazy and suddenly, the road was clear for them to draft Heyward. Bridges would be hired away from the Marlins to help sign Heyward. But Atlanta was far from being done. They had 49 more draft selections. Their next two were used on a high school third baseman, Jon Gilmore, and right-hander Josh Fields out of the University of Georgia. Nine picks later, they drafted lanky Freddie Freeman out of El Modena High School in Orange, CA. Their next eleven picks were a mixture of junior college and four-year guys like Brandon Hicks, Cory Gearrin, Travis Jones, Michael Fisher, and "pitcher" Brandon Belt. The last name wouldn't sign. Neither would Fields. Fifth-round selection Dennis Dixon out of the University of Oregon did sign, but played just one summer before returning to college to start at QB for the Oregon Ducks.

Righties Caleb Brewer and Paul Demny (who didn't sign) represented the first two high schoolers taken after the rush of college players, but Atlanta would head back to college-age guys in the 16th through 21st rounds. Some interesting names from the remainder of the draft include C.J. Lee in the 20th round, Benino Pruneda in the 31st, and a pair of players in the 27th and 33rd rounds who would both be drafted again the following season (Adam Milligan and Craig Kimbrel).

The draft would be known for Heyward and Freeman. Each would climb up the ladder and become good friends with a bromance reminiscent of Jeff Francoeur and Brain McCann a few years before. Gilmore would be used by the Braves to acquire Javier Vazquez from the White Sox in the winter of 2008-09. Hicks and Gearrin would both get to the majors with Gearrin following Hicks' footsteps by becoming a semi-established player for the Giants. But the Braves weren't able to develop anymore of the players. While three (Fields, Belt, and 24th rounder Mitch Harris) would all make it to the majors, it was only after re-entering the draft and getting selected by a different team. Of course, the relationship with Kimbrel would become very fruitful.

Pruneda and Fisher both flashed big potential at times, but neither saw their careers progress to AAA with the Braves. Fisher's career is over, but Pruneda continues to try to harness some filthy stuff and recently made his Triple-A debut with the Royals' organization.

This draft really only developed two great players, but their greatness helps push this draft into my Top 5. Heyward gave the Braves five good seasons once he made it to the majors before being traded to the Cardinals. If you add Shelby Miller's deal, the Braves effectively 24.6 WAR from Heyward plus Tyrell Jenkins, Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, and Dansby Swanson. Really shines up this draft even if the Braves may have tried to be sneaky as possible to get Heyward.

Braves Need to Consider Dumping Markakis

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I despise the label "professional hitter." Aren't they all? Even Julio Teheran is a professional hitter since he gets paid to do it. And even if you roll your eyes at taking the literal meaning of the phrase, it's an entirely misapplied and pointless phrase that is often handed out as a consolation prize.

One Brave who receives the phrase is Nick Markakis. He is a career .290 hitter so I guess it's not the worst example. Nevertheless, even if Markakis is a "professional hitter" on a team that struggles to hit, the Braves ought to seek out a team that needs more "non-amateur batters." If Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo is to be believed, the Royals and Phillies might be interested. If they are, the Braves should be doing whatever they can to trade the right-fielder there.

It's not that Markakis is terrible. Granted, his fWAR has traveled south of zero this season, but he's a better hitter than he has shown so far and when he gets going on a hot streak, he'll have that WAR back over one in no time. The problem is that it won't go much higher. The other problem is the same problem that has been attached to Markakis since he signed with the Braves. Does he really even fit what this team is trying to do?

This is the right-fielder's Age-32 year. The smart money says that we have seen the best of Markakis already and can only expect a decline or stagnation if we are lucky. Markakis, for his part, has added some of the best walk rates of his career to supplement the lost power, but can the Braves expect more than they got last season (.296/.370/.376)? And let's be honest - Markakis didn't sign here with the expectation that the Braves would go belly-up and not even put together a competent ballclub. When he came to the Braves, they still had Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Andrelton Simmons, and had just added Shelby Miller. Sure, there were holes, but Markakis was a better match for that team. He's a complimentary player after all. He can help a team not have a weakness where he plays, but he won't do much more.

Let's not forget that this is Year 2 of a 4-year contract that runs through 2018. The Braves should be better in 2017, though it's unlikely they put it all together in one year to go from league laughingstock-to-contenders. 2018 is a much more reasonable expectation, though even it requires some of these young players to "get it" pretty quickly. It took the Royals' young nucleus time to start producing up to expectations after all. Markakis will be around for *maybe* one good year for the Braves and by that time, he'll be 34. He's a nice role model for the youngsters and a hard worker who can show the ropes to the kids, but so is Kelly Johnson or any number of veterans that have been around for awhile in the majors. Those type of players typically get one-year pacts for $2-$5 million, not 4-year, $44M.

Markakis might be a fit for a team trying to win right now. I say "might" because if I'm that team, he's not a target for me. Still, Markakis might make sense for a young team under the leadership of a traditional mindset of grabbing a #2 hitter with excellent bat control. Markakis is a constant. What you get might not excite you much, but he gives a team some leeway. He won't embarrass you in right field, though his range makes him a better fit for left. His power is non-existent partly because he doesn't pull the ball anymore, but he'll likely post a good average with a strong on-base. Those qualities fit a team with a hole, not a team looking for a difference maker. They certainly don't fit a rebuilding team.

If Atlanta receives an offer for Markakis, they ought to seriously consider it. If the other team will take on all of the remaining salary with no added salary beyond this year coming back for the Braves, done deal. If the Braves have to cover some salary, a prospect exchange can be considered. Either way, Markakis is not Chris Johnson or Melvin Upton Jr., two salary dumps by the Braves over the last 14 months. Markakis is still useful for one thing. If there is a team out there entertaining the thought of adding Markakis, Atlanta better be ready to pounce. Markakis makes a terrible Braves team a tiny bit better in 2016 and could help improving Braves' ballclubs in 2017 and 2018 be a wee bit better as well. However, consider how much better the Braves could be if they re-purpose the $21M remaining on Markakis' deal after this season.

Trading Markakis makes a bad team likely worse in 2016, but does that really matter? The Braves would have to go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way to finish 81-81. While they did that, they would sacrifice at least a dozen spots in the 2017 draft and still have an aging and replacement-level right fielder. They might not be any better at all with Markakis (they haven't set the world on fire with him after all) so it might be a moot point, but they could be better in 2017 and 2018 and have added payroll flexibility.

Signing Markakis in the winter of 2014-15 didn't make a lot of sense then. Keeping him if other teams want him now? That makes zero sense. If another team sees a better fit, make it happen, John Coppolella.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack (4/23/16)

Time for another Saturday Stats Pack, minor league edition. Please remember to check out the major league version which looks at the Atlanta Braves' lack of power so far, pinch-hitting woes, and whether Matt Wisler is Shelby Miller 2.0.

Gwinnett - 8 players

In the early going this season, the Gwinnett Braves have used 31 players to play just 16 games. A 32nd pitches tonight in Lucas Sims. He'll become the 9th player to play for Gwinnett this year who hasn't also played in the majors at some point. That number isn't totally fair because Mallex Smith made his major league debut after beginning the year with Gwinnett, but it's still pretty surprising to see so few major league virgins in AAA.

Mississippi - 0 Strikeouts

If you follow Kyle Tait on Twitter, you will notice that the voice of the Mississippi Braves has instituted a #WilliansWatch. The hashtag refers to Willians Astudillo, signed this offseason by the Braves from the Phillies' organization. A catcher/whateveryouwanthimtoplay, Astudillo has already posted some quirky stat lines in his career. Last year, he came to the plate 418 times. He walked ten times, he struck out ten times. In nearly 1700 plate appearances during his six year career entering 2016, he had struck out just 51 times. So far this year, he's only added to the plate appearances total. After last night's game, he's up to 50 PA with no strikeouts - or walks for that matter. Going back to last season, he has gone 152 PA without a strikeout, which is damn near amazing for the deadball era, let alone a modern era of baseball. How long will the streak continue? Remember to follow Kyle Tait for all of your #WilliansWatch information.

Carolina - 17.2 K/9

Few have had a stranger start to their 2016 than Carlos Salazar, the 21 year-old right-handed reliever for the Carolina Mudcats. In five games, Salazar has struck out 14 in 7.1 ING while giving up just one hit. The bad news is that he's also walked 8 and been called for two balks. The walk rate, sadly, is not too extreme from his previous results. He clearly has an electric arm, but he'll be stuck in the minors unless he's able to turn around the flaws in his game.

Rome - 18 K's in 17 ING

It's not easy getting noticed if you're Patrick Weigel this season. Stuck in a rotation with Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, and Ricardo Sanchez, Weigel won't attrack much attention. Yet, Weigel has been just as good as any of his rotation mates in the early going. A 7th rounder out of THE Oxnard College (go Condors!), Weigel was unimpressive in his run with Danville last summer, but has been solid in his first three starts this year with a 3.6 K/BB and 2.12 ERA. If Weigel can be consistent with his delivery and throw strikes, he will definitely shed the afterthought label and enter some prospect rankings.

Random Prospect Sunday - Steve Rodriguez

(A little note on this series. On Sundays throughout the season, a player will be chosen at random using the helpful website, random.org. The goal of this series is to talk about both big prospects and organizational filler rather than focus completely on the Top 20 prospects in the system. I alternate pitchers and hitters and this week, we get both a hitter and the bread-and-butter of this series, a catcher. Here's the rest of this series.)

Does it pay to be able to play catcher with good defense? Just ask Steve Rodriguez.

Born in Ford Hood, Texas on January 8, 1990, Rodriguez's family would later relocate to California. It was there that Rodriguez attended St. John Bosco High School in Bellflower. The Catholic school, located just outside of Los Angeles, has a number of notable alumnae, including Nomar Garciaparra, Evan Longoria, and Bud Smith - whose name might have been brought up lately as he's one of only 18 pitchers to throw a no-hitter in his rookie season.

After being undrafted out of high school, Rodriguez accepted a scholarship to attend UCLA and ended up winning the job as primary catcher. Lauded for his defense, Rodriguez hit just .179/.271/.263 over 95 plate appearances in his freshman year. He became the everyday starter the following year and improved his numbers noticeably as UCLA finished two games short of their first national title in baseball. At the plate in 2010, Rodriguez would hit .249/.345/.436 with 8 homeruns - half of which came in a pair of two-homerun games. Behind the plate, Rodriguez was considered a real star, helping to lead a pitching staff that finished second nationally with a 3.00 ERA and set a Pac-10 single-season mark with 700 strikeouts. That staff was led by Matt Grace, Gerrit Cole, and Trevor Bauer.

Rodriguez would return to UCLA for his junior year, though Tyler Heineman would cut into his playing time (the latter would be picked in the 8th round a year after Rodriguez). It didn't help that Rodriguez's offensive numbers completely disappeared (.196/.294/.230) or that UCLA struggled through a disappointing season despite the returns of Cole and Bauer. That June, Rodriguez would be picked in the 15th round by Arizona.

After spending two seasons in short-season A-ball with Yakima, Rodriguez moved up to South Bend to begin 2013, but his stay there was short as he would be needed in Visalia, which is where he spent most of the season. He hit three of his career four homeruns with the Rawhide, but also ISO'd just .114 to go with a .318 OBP. Considering the California League gives hitters a false sense of accomplishment via ridiculous offensive numbers, Rodriguez's season was still a letdown.

The following season, 2014, would be limited to just 48 games at the plate, but to his credit, Rodriguez showed improvement at the plate for really the first time. He played a few weeks in Visalia to begin the year, but spent the remaining 39 games in Double-A Mobile. With the BayBears, Rodriguez slashed .267/.358/.352. With his defense, a slash like that could be quite useful. Unfortunately his season ended because of injury and Rodriguez's top season finished with a .748 OPS. You could argue that with his numbers in 2014 plus the Diamondbacks' trade of Miguel Montero, Rodriguez had a fighting chance to head into camp and compete for playing time with the major league club with Tuffy Gosewisch (ha) and Jordan Pacheco. However, just a few days after Montero was traded, Rodriguez was selected by the Braves in the Triple-A portion of the Rule 5 draft.

Rodriguez remained in the Southern League and played in 60 games with Mississippi last year, slashing just .210/.303/.247 along the way. If you aren't anxious to do the math, that's an ISO of .036. Last year, Shelby Miller (who hit .054 mind you) had an ISO of .036. All jokes aside, Rodriguez fit in well with the duo of Matt Kennelly and Braeden Schlehuber, who served as the other primary catchers last year with Mississippi. The trio's OPS looks like this: .556 (Kennelly), .550 (Rodriguez), .468 (Schlehuber).

For 2016, Rodriguez received a return assignment to Mississippi, though his playing time has been severely cut into by this winter's signing of Willians Astudillo - and that's for the best. Like his cohorts, Kennelly and Schlehuber, Rodriguez's best chance of sticking around is to do all the little things that make light-hitting catchers long-term fixtures of an organization (play defense, be a leader, help develop pitchers).

Twenty-six years-old now, Rodriguez has only played one other position in his career (he took a loss while throwing an inning for Mobile in 2014). He still hasn't logged an at-bat at AAA and carries a .224/.320/.301 slash over 219 professional games. He hasn't homered since 2013, has never eclipsed 100 total bases in a season, and has only been successful once in four stolen base attempts (and it was his first). But especially in the minor leagues, baseball is about much more than all that. Players like Rodriguez become coaches in the end, not major league performers.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Craig Kimbrel Deal

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash

The Trade
Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton to the Padres for Cameron Maybin, Matt Wisler, Carlos Quentin, Jordan Paroubeck, and a 2015 draft choice (Austin Riley). I looking at those leaving and coming at this blog and a deeper look over at About.com.

The Rationale
A month ago, as I went over the Justin Upton trade, I wrote this: "(A.J.) Preller could say he held out and didn't give the Braves the pitcher they really wanted - Matt Wisler. Of course, that would change when Preller got so desperate to put a bow on his first offseason, but we'll get to that deal later." Welcome to later. It's hard to decide what was the most surprising thing about this trade. That the Braves had moved Kimbrel, who we were told was untouchable? That the deal came hours before the season was set to begin? Or, if you were like me, was it that the Braves found a team so desperate - so foolish - to take on an additional $50 million in payroll just to get an elite closer?

Jim McIssac | Getty

A lot of people hated this trade, but not for its impact on the Braves team so much as losing yet another homegrown, popular player. Sure, losing the despised elder Upton and his contract helped matters, but Kimbrel was loved in Atlanta who had broken the franchise record for saves before he turned 27. He was the last remaining piece of the super successful O'Ventbrel with southpaws Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty. He was our chosen one who sat in a bullpen in Los Angeles while Fredi Gonzalez arbitrarily counted the amount of outs Kimbrel was "good for" even as the 2013 season went down in flames.

But even the greatest closer in franchise history only throws 60-70 innings. Closers are overvalued because of their mystique. Was Kimbrel overpaid? Not according to the market, but was he too expensive for the Braves? Absolutely. He was about to enter Year 2 of his 4 year, $41M contract with a team option that could increase it to $52M. The Braves saw a chance to clear the books and while they stuck with the company line that they loved Kimbrel and wouldn't trade him, even they saw future payrolls and wondered if Kimbrel was worth it.

Getting rid of Upton just made the exchange easier. A big red mark on Frank Wren's time in Atlanta, Upton had been offered $75M over five years to come to Atlanta despite a .255 career batting average and .298 OBP in his walk year with the Rays. The Braves basically put $75M on red during roulette. They would either come out of it looking like roses or things would go about as bad as you could imagine.

Of course, it went the latter. In two seasons, Upton slashed .198/.279/.314 with 21 HR, 32 SB, and 324 strikeouts. The Braves were desperate to find a taker for the $46.5M left on his contract. The Cubs flirted with the idea of sending Edwin Jackson to the Braves for Upton, but nothing materialized. It was a foregone conclusion that even if the Braves traded Upton, they would be taking on some, if not the majority of, the remaining salary.

But that's where the Padres stepped in. A.J. Preller had been nearly as active as the new Braves front office during the offseason. He had already traded for Justin Upton from the Braves while adding Wil Myers and Matt Kemp because defense is totally optional. With James Shields, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks also in place, Preller assumed he had built a juggernaut. He assumed very wrong, but as the season was about to open, he saw an opportunity to put a cherry on the top. Mr. Kimbrel. Sure, the Pads still had Joaquin Benoit, who was more than capable, but he was no Kimbrel. Plus, with Kimbrel, the bullpen would be much deeper. Sure, they would have to add the other Upton, but they already had a glut of outfielders, as the rest of the deal showed.

Getting rid of Maybin and Quentin cleared up things for the Padres, who also had Will Venable. With Melvin missing the first couple of months, it allowed the Padres plenty of time to work him in slowly while keeping Venable in a 4th outfielder role because their super duper outfield was, well, super duper. Of course, where Melvin fit in was confusing, but KIMBREL!

Maybin was a bust in San Diego after signing a long-term deal when he first became arbitration-eligible. He had played in 109 games over the previous two years and had a .665 OPS over four years with the Padres. They didn't have a place for him and were glad to shed his salary. Quentin's inclusion was weird because the Braves released him soon after, but the latter was part of the plan. Quentin had no-trade protection and wanted to get the freedom to try to jumpstart his career elsewhere, preferably with a team that played 95% of their games with a DH. My friend Bryce theorized the inclusion of Quentin was so that the deal would get done without the need for commissioner approval rather than the Braves packaging money to help pay for the Padres to release Quentin themselves.

Paroubeck was an interesting prospect in the long-term. Incredibly raw with athletic ability off the charts, Paroubeck was a second-rounder in 2013, who didn't make his debut until the following season. The production was there, but again, as interesting as he was, it was like adding another draft choice to the organization considering how little he had played and how young he was. Speaking of draft choices, we didn't know it at the time, but the 41st selection of the 2015 draft would quickly pay dividends.

As for the guy the Braves had wanted for Melvin's older brother earlier in the offseason, Wisler was ticketed for a return trip to El Paso before the trade. It's where he landed the previous spring and after sulking because he felt he deserved a look over the pitchers the Padres kept, Wisler was demoted back to AA to try to jumpstart his season. Overall, he had finished with a 5.01 ERA in AAA. Even with that in mind, Baseball America ranked him the #34 prospect in baseball. He was one of just two Padres prospects ranked by BA, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com in the top 100 (Hunter Renfroe was the other).

Short-Term Results
The Padres remade their team and won three fewer games in doing so. Adding Kimbrel aided the pen, which was fairly good as a result. He struggled early (for him), but Kimbrel turned it on late. Homers were a bit of a problem, but a career-high rate in HR/FB may have been a bit flukish. It turns out to be his worse full season in the majors both in saves and xFIP/SIERA. However, Kimbrel's so damn good that having 39 saves, a 2.46 xFIP, and 2.21 SIERA is considered a down year. But the Padres learned what the Braves already were aware of - having a great closer is a luxery, but only makes a bad ballclub moderately better.

Of more interest was Melvin's resurgence. Sure, he was limited to just 87 games, but he slashed .259/.327/.429 with a 110 RC+. His last three years in Tampa averaged a 109 RC+ so that was impressive. I'm not sold on it continuing as Melvin's .348 BABIP was his highest since his 2007-08 days when he walked a lot and hit for a good average. That said, a pull rate that leaped over 50% might suggest that Upton's clunky approach at the plate was adjusted and gave him a better chance at getting around on balls, which led to a career-best line drive rate.

Just to touch on a few of the short-timers...Quentin caught on with the Mariners organization, but quickly decided that enough was enough and hung up his spikes at the ripe old age of just 32. Paroubeck was traded before he played a game in the organization. Nursing an injury, he was moved, along with Caleb Dirks, to the Dodgers on July 2 for an international bonus slot that helped the Braves sign their pair of high-priced international guys.

Now, to the meat. Maybin had a wonderful first half, but fell off the map in the second half, which led to a .267/.327/.370 final slash with 10 HR, 23 steals, and defensive metrics sour on him. He did play in 141 games after 109 the previous two seasons so that was a plus. His first half numbers were exciting, too. Who doesn't want .289/.356/.418 from your center fielder who, I wager, is better in the field that the -5.3 adjusted defensive rating Fangraphs gave him.

As for Wisler, there were both good and bad parts of his game this season. he remained a durable arm and threw 109 innings in the majors along with 65 in Gwinnett. Curiously, his strikeout rate fell from the 8.6 per nine rate he had been pulling before 2015 to a bit over 6 per nine. In addition, his xFIP and SIERA were not pretty (both around 5.00). While his late season starts look good, the results are not really supported in the numbers, though the same size is VERY VERY SMALL.

Finally, there is Riley, the prep pitcher who just wanted a chance to hit. The Braves gave him that chance and he smacked a dozen homers in 60 games. He has received some aggressive rankings since then (including #11 by me) and it might be premature for a guy who K'd a quarter of his plate appearances, but you just don't see many 18 year-olds brutalize the Appalachian League.

Long-Term Outlook
The Padres are on the hook for at least two more seasons of both Kimbrel and Melvin, though they have been rumored to be at least listening to offers on Kimbrel. And there in lies the accepted conundrum with Kimbrel. As good as he is, you still feel kind of dumb paying $24M for the next two innings for 130 innings. Granted, if you have an endless payroll, screw it. But for teams like the Padres and Braves, does paying that much money for so few actual innings make financial sense?

On the flipside, if Melvin keeps hitting, regardless with what happens with Kimbrel, the Padres will at least have that to hang their hat on. Yay...

Atlanta is stocked with veteran outfielders in 2016 and Maybin could be on the market, though I tend to think the Braves like the idea of letting Mallex Smith get a spring under the veterans, a few more months in Gwinnett to buy another pre-arbitration season, and bring up their hot prospect only after things clear up in Atlanta. It allows the Braves more depth to limit Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher's at-bats to keep their vesting options from triggering (which, if they produce, could help their trade value). I'm sure Atlanta will listen to offers on Maybin, but they need an upgrade to the roster to make a deal - not just more prospects.

The bigger picture rests on the arm of Wisler and the bat of Riley. Will Wisler clean up his game to become the middle-of-the-staff force many felt him capable of? It's definitely possible and if he makes that step in 2016, all the better. Atlanta could use the depth behind the projected rotation of Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, zombie Mike Minor, and...well, that's it. Meanwhile, power is a commodity that the Braves are short on and while Riley is a number of years away from likely getting into the picture, Atlanta could use his presence.

All in all, this deal might be the best one the Holy John Trinity made in their first year. Yeah, a certain Diamondbacks deal ranks very high, but this particular trade was a franchise changer. It moved bad contracts while only adding Maybin's affordable contract post-2015. It brought two big young players to the system and it gave the Braves a chance to move beyond the awfulness of watching Melvin suck.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com

If you weren't aware, I also publish posts at atlantabraves.about.com. I typically post a few times each week over there and here are my three most recent articles there.

Braves New GM Means Little Has Changed

When John Coppolella was "promoted" into his new job, it didn't mean much had actually been altered about the Braves braintrust. Over the last year+, Coppy has been basically the guy in charge of things with John Hart as his advisor. It was Coppy that did the legwork for deals that sent Craig Kimbrel to San Diego and Alex Wood to the Dodgers while bringing back players like Matt Wisler, Cameron Maybin, and Hector Olivera. Coppy was also instrumental in re-working the minor league system as the Braves gave him the freedom to do what they refused to do under his predecessor - Rebuild. Whether this relationship with the other 2/3's of the Holy John Trinity above him will succeed is definitely up for debate, but Coppy gets his first shot at being a major league general manager. We'll see how it works out.

The 11 Best Moments of the 2015 Braves Season

From a 5-0 start to a double-header sweep that also included Shelby Miller's winless streak coming to a close, 2015 had a lot of great moments even as the Braves suffered through one of their worst seasons since the 80's. There was walk-offs from Adonis Garcia and Maybin, magical comebacks like the one against the Giants, the return of Peter Moylan, and the continued magic of Andrelton Simmons at shortstop - plus many more. Even in a bad year, fans were given a lot to cheer about.

Starting Pitching Options for the Braves in Free Agency

The Braves don't often venture into the free agent market for starting pitching. Several years ago, Frank Wren tried to restock the rotation with free agents Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, but since then, the rotation has often been stocked by homegrown talent, trades, and one-year pacts with guys like Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang. The good money is that the Braves won't spend much in the starting pitching market, especially considering Mike Minor looks like a guy they might bring back in 2016, but if they do go shopping, I found a few players who might help the Braves and possibly, at a good price.

Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter and bookmark both this blog and the one at About for future updates.

Thursday Throwback - Charlie Morton

(This column used to be called Random Ex-Brave.)

The 2008 starting staff for the Braves didn't seem terrible on the surface, but it took little time to blow up and with it, any chance the Braves could make a run at the playoffs. Tim Hudson got the opening day start in Washington with Tom Glavine following in the next game. Nate McLouth homered and drove in four in that game - more on him later. After Glavine, you had Jair Jurrjens, Chuck James, and the aging John Smoltz, who missed a start to open the year and many more after April 27. Glavine also missed a few starts leading to Jeff Bennett. Ugh. Jo-Jo Reyes replaced Smoltz which is about as far as you can possibly go from different sides of the spectrum. After James went down, Jorge Campillo was next in line. This is depressing just writing about...

Morton doesn't understand when he's supposed to cover home
Scott Cunningham | Getty Images Sport

After Glavine got hurt again, the next in line was Charlie Morton. A right-hander out of Joel Barlow High School in Redding, Connecticut, Morton was the third round pick by the Braves in 2002. That third round only gave baseball Curtis Granderson, the sad Elijah Dukes, and Dan Ortmeier. You might not know the last name, but he was a great pinch hitter for me in Out of the Park. What? This is my blog, dammit.

Morton wasn't much of a prospect before a strong run in the Arizona Fall League in 2007. Over 21 innings, he K'd 20 to just eight walks and was touched up for just 15 hits. He continued his strong run with 79 innings with Richmond in which he kept his ERA around 2, K'd 72, and allowed the same amount of homeruns that he hit that season (clearly zero because pitchers can't hit homers). The Braves, desperate as hell as you may have noticed, called up Morton and said "go get 'em, kid." He won his first start on June 14, 2008 against the Angels, but was often either kind of "meh" or just bad during his forced call-up. In five of his 15 starts, he failed to go five innings. His greatest outing with the Braves came on my birthday, August 7. He scattered five hits over seven scoreless innings in Arizona, getting his third-of-four wins. His next three games - 9.2 ING, 16 H, 9 R, 9 BB, 10 K.

Frank Wren made starting pitching a priority entering 2009 and added Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe, and Kenshin Kawakami - ordered by quality of pitching. Kris Medlen would replace an ineffective Reyes before being replaced himself by the strong rookie Tommy Hanson. Toward September, the Braves welcomed back Hudson. But what about Morton? After failing to beat out Reyes in camp, Morton headed to Gwinnett and was very strong for the G-Braves. In his final eight starts with Gwinnett, he gave up a run or less in seven of them, including a seven-hit shutout of Syracuse on May 29. That would be his final start in the Braves system.

Atlanta needed help offensively. While the pitching was definitely improved, the weak hitting of Kelly Johnson, epic failure of Garret Anderson, and Jeff Francoeur deciding to play like Jeff Francoeur led the Braves to search for help. Martin Prado helped with the issues at second base, but they still needed a center fielder because Jordan Schafer is a few things, but a starting center fielder in the major leagues is not one of them. With that in mind, the Braves packaged a trio of players (Morton, Jeff Locke, and Gorkys Hernandez) in a trade with the Pirates to get McLouth, who I profiled in this series back in April. Problem solved and everyone lived to love this trade.

Well, not so much, but McLouth was kinda decent in 2009...

After seven scoreless in a game against the Lehigh Valley for Indianapolis, the Pirates brought Morton to the majors to make his first start against Jurrjens and the Braves. He left after just one inning with an injury - this will become a theme. He returned ten days later and would serve as the fifth starter for the Pirates for the rest of the year. He finished the year with better overall numbers than he had with the Braves the previous year.

The next season would be a troublesome one for Morton, who finished 2010 with a 7.57. Not the airplane, the ERA. The Pirates placed him on the DL and sent him to a doctor. Not James Andrews, but a sports psychologist. After getting back on the mound, Morton was sent him to AAA to try to get him going and in his credit, his September numbers were not as awful. He would build on the mini-success to end 2010 and would set a new personal high in innings with 171.2 the following season. His big year included a pitching style change that Shelby Miller would later adopt. Morton utilized his 2-seamer over the 4-seamer, which turned him into a groundball pitcher seemingly overnight. The Pirates named him their "Breakout Player of the Year" and he had a 3.83 ERA with a pair of complete games and a shutout. He also was handed the moniker "Ground Chuck."  After the season, Morton opted for surgery to repair a torn labrum.

His 2012 started late and ended early as by June, it became clear Morton needed more surgery - this time, it was our old friend Tommy John. Almost a year to the date of that surgery, he was activated off the DL in 2013 and finished the year strong with 20 starts, a 1.28 WHIP, and his first league-leading effort in a statistical category - 16 hit batters! Regardless, it was a good season for Morton.

Over the last two seasons, Morton has stayed fairly healthy (for him) and just made his 22nd start of this season in a stinker against the Rockies, though the Pirates still won by six. All in all, Morton is just kinda good enough that you feel like you'd still like to have in the middle of the rotation (4.10 career FIP), but just not good enough to miss all that much. Still, many of us would take the many injuries of Morton over the epic failure of McLouth.

More Thursday Throwbacks
Freddy Garcia (2013)
John Thomson (2004-06)
Kent Mercker (1989-95, 2003)