Time to try to push out the final seven of this series. The good news is that three of them are already written so expect me to polish up the 3rd Worst for publishing later today. Today's choice is a bit nuts since it hasn't even produced a major league talent yet, but I am a big fan. Clearly.
Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000
4th Best Draft Since 2000...The 2015 Draft
I am fully aware that I am judging this draft way too quickly, but I believe this draft could - yes, could - exceed any draft since 2000.
It was the first time since 2007 that the Braves had multiple picks in the first time and it had been 14 years since the Braves had three picks in the Top 41 selections. The 14th overall was the pick they received for going a Frank Wren-dismissing-worthy 79-83 in 2014. The 28th overall was compensation losing Ervin Santana while the #41 overall was a competitive balance pick the Braves stole from the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade. In addition, they added the final pick of the second round (#75) in the Victor Reyes/Trevor Cahill trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. When you add the #89 overall the Braves were receiving anyway, the Braves had six picks in the Top 100.
It was big news for a system in desperate need for added talent. In a pitching-rich draft, the Braves never deviated from their plan of taking what the draft gives you rather than reach for need. It was a stark change from the Wren-led years where Atlanta settled on college talent who could be expediated through the minors to provide depth for the big league club. Such a method produced big hits like Alex Wood and Andrelton Simmons, but also led to unremarkable high-round additions like Todd Cunningham and David Hale. The new Braves pushed money around to spend heavily on amateur talent and the 2015 draft was a first step toward showing what the Braves under the leadership of John Hart and John Coppolella, along with newly promoted Brian Bridges, could do.
They would sign their first 25 players drafted and 31-of-43 overall. They went high school early before adding college arms to finish the first ten rounds. After that, they cycled between junior college, four-year colleges, and high school players. The only real constant was that pitchers played a prominent role, much to the criticism of casual observers who noted the Braves already had a wealth of pitching talent. Of the first 25 drafted, 19 were pitchers. But Atlanta was not interested in filling out a quota of X amount of infielders and X amount of outfielders. They were only interested in taking the best player available.
Their first pick was a sign that these Braves were fearless in their approach to the draft. Rather than take their chances later in the draft and play it safe early, the Braves went with lefty Kolby Allard out of San Clemente High School (CA). Allard was a Top-5 calibar player before back issues chased off many teams. Not the Braves, though. They took the southpaw with frontline stuff and a curveball that was one of the best in the drafts. Atlanta played the odds. A true 14th best player in the draft might solidify the middle-of-the-rotation or be a plus-hitter. A Top-5 talent can start a Game 1 of the World Series. Atlanta went with the high-end.
Atlanta remained risky by taking a player whose draft status wasn't as high as the pick Atlanta grabbed him at in Mike Soroka. A righty prep star from Canada, Soroka had handled himself with maturity as a member of the Canadian junior national team in exhibition games against major league talent. Atlanta continued to not paint-by-numbers with their final first rounder as they went with Austin Riley, a pitcher who had some interesting power potential at third base. Their second position player came 13 picks later in the form of Allard's battery mate, Lucas Herbert.
The next ten picks were all pitchers ranging from the risky A.J. Minter, who threw just 58 innings in college because of injury, to Grayson Jones, out of THE Shelton State Community College.
When the dust settled, some scoffed at Atlanta's haul, finding it underwhelming at times. Many wondered if the risky direction was less smart and more reckless. However, you have to imagine that the Braves' braintrust set back and was happy with the talent they had added. Riley would have a breakout first season and become an immediate prospect. Allard was handled conservatively, but in brief cameos in the Gulf Coast League, he mowed down hitters. Later picks like Patrick Weigel (7th round) and Trevor Belicek (16th round) would produce intriguing arms while 25th round catcher Jonathan Morales might be a diamond in the rough.
Yes, it's too soon to get this excited, but you have to forgive me. This collection of talent is too good to ignore and their refusal to limit themselves to conservative approaches of too many college kids or guys who were born in Georgia/southeast is a refreshing change to the drafts of the last several years. One draft into the Coppy/Bridges years and I am on board and anxious to see what they can do with the 2016 draft.
Oh...and least we forget that the Braves also added Dansby Swanson via trade to their 2016 haul. That only makes this draft look all the better.
Showing posts with label Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santana. Show all posts
Sunday, June 5, 2016
Friday, September 18, 2015
Reviewing Hart's Trades: Heyward/Miller
The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! And I had to ignore a lot of the minor deals to come to that number. Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
The Trade
Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. I reviewed the deal first with a knee-jerk reaction and second with the reasons I both loved and hated the deal.
The Rationale
For the Braves, the deal was accepting the inevitable. Heyward was a goner in the post-2015 world so why not be proactive and make a trade to get something now. While Heyward was both a fan favorite and young enough to expect even bigger things out of him, he was also a guy who - in the midst of a plethora of extensions being handed out - accepted a short-term deal after 2013 to buy out his remaining arbitration years. He was gone and we all seemed to feel it happening even if some fans held out hope the Braves would suddenly find $20 million in their other pants.
Beyond just giving up Heyward, the Braves were also staring at a lack of pitching in both the minors and, more notably, the major league rotation. Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang were free agents and exiting with their combined 400.1 innings. Alex Wood and Julio Teheran were returning along with the questions that were present with Mike Minor. Injured Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were even bigger question marks and both would be non-tendered rather than brought back. The Braves needed a starter and got one in Miller, who had showed both the good and not-so-good about his game in two seasons in the majors.
The addition of Jenkins and Walden in this trade were less noteworthy to this trade, but for the Braves, the trade also gave them an exciting, if unknown, hurler. The Braves needed young pitching and if Walden smoothed over the concerns of the Cardinals, that was just fine because the Braves would find some relievers somewhere to help out. Right? ...sadface
I'm not a Cards expert, but we all knew the Cardinals saw Heyward as an immediate replacement to Oscar Taveras, the exciting rookie who had tragically perished in an automobile accident. Walden was also expected to shore up a bullpen that was losing Carlos Martinez to the rotation. Plus, I have to believe the Cards were not anxious to use a 40-man spot on the unknown Jenkins, but also didn't want to lose him in the Rule 5 draft for nothing.
Short-Term Results
Let's start with the Cardinals first. Heyward has largely stayed healthy and productive for the Cards this season, though the power numbers remain disappointing. He remains an elite-level player in center, though his metrics haven't been as crazy awesome as they were last year when he had 32 DRS. All in all, Heyward has been great for St. Louis and paces them in WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. He remains on track to hit free agency after the World Series - a Series the Cards are strong contenders to reach.
As for Walden, he got off to a great start, but hit the DL at the end of April with a biceps injury. Later on, rotator cuff trouble kept him on the mend and efforts to get back on the mound have proved unsuccessful. His season officially came to a close a few weeks ago. He's trying to avoid surgery because the rate of pitchers that return from that particular surgery is not high. Interestingly, a physical let the Cards know that his shoulder possibly had issues, but that didn't stop them from promising $6M through 2016 to Walden.
Very little hasn't been said about Miller at this point. Relying more on a two-seam fastball than ever, Miller has been a different pitcher for the Braves than he was with the Cardinals. Of course, we all know about the loses - a league-high 15 right now. He's gone 22 starts since his last win, a streak that ties Carl Morton for the most consecutive starts without a win for the Atlanta record and is four games off the pace for the franchise record. It should be added (I guess) that Miller's case is special since his streak is restrained to one season unlike the other two. Our old buddy Jo-Jo Reyes and Matt Keough hold the MLB record at 28 straight winless starts while Jack Nabors holds the single season record with 27.
But unlike them, Miller has been very productive. His 3.00 ERA, which is on the rise, would still set a new low. He's matched his previous two seasons' output with two shutouts in 2015 while already setting a new high in innings. He'll likely add a new strikeout high before the end of the season. On a team without a lot going right and even with Miller's crazy winless streak, he's been consistent for Atlanta in giving them a chance to win - even if they are too inept to take advantage of it.
As for Jenkins, he stayed (mostly) healthy this season for the first time in his career and logged 138.1 ING between AA and AAA. Just 23 years-old, Jenkins has a real opportunity to parlay his success into an extended look next spring.
Long-Term Outlook
Again, let's start with St. Louis. Walden is a toss-up at this point if he's going to avoid surgery and if he doesn't, it's a toss-up if he ever pitches in the majors again. That's unfortunate because he's such a fun pitcher to watch and when he's on, he's really on. Heyward's been hitting well this month and looks primed for a big pay day. If it doesn't come with the Cardinals, it'll come from someone. There is a real chance Heyward will get $200M this offseason even though people who value traditional counting stats won't understand why. Without a World Series ring, the Cardinals could be looking at one-and-done with Heyward and little from Walden as the price for Miller and Jenkins.
The Braves will take that exchange, of course. Miller seemed primed to spend the next few seasons helping to shore up the front of Atlanta's staff. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this season and has been pretty durable to this point. Atlanta might even look to lock Miller up for the foreseeable future rather than go year-to-year with him, though that's just a guess. As for Jenkins, again, he could be in the staff next spring, though I believe he'll be too low from the starting depth chart to sneak his way into the staff. Nevertheless, with some productive outings at Gwinnett, he'll be in the majors sooner rather than later.
Overall, Atlanta can make the claim that they've already won this deal, though the Cardinals could easily say they have the pitching to compete and adding Miller wouldn't have made them all that much better. Conversely, not having Heyward may have wrecked them. Either way, the Braves weren't going to keep Heyward and are glad to have a pair of arms to play on their next good team.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
The Trade
Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. I reviewed the deal first with a knee-jerk reaction and second with the reasons I both loved and hated the deal.
The Rationale
For the Braves, the deal was accepting the inevitable. Heyward was a goner in the post-2015 world so why not be proactive and make a trade to get something now. While Heyward was both a fan favorite and young enough to expect even bigger things out of him, he was also a guy who - in the midst of a plethora of extensions being handed out - accepted a short-term deal after 2013 to buy out his remaining arbitration years. He was gone and we all seemed to feel it happening even if some fans held out hope the Braves would suddenly find $20 million in their other pants.
Beyond just giving up Heyward, the Braves were also staring at a lack of pitching in both the minors and, more notably, the major league rotation. Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang were free agents and exiting with their combined 400.1 innings. Alex Wood and Julio Teheran were returning along with the questions that were present with Mike Minor. Injured Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were even bigger question marks and both would be non-tendered rather than brought back. The Braves needed a starter and got one in Miller, who had showed both the good and not-so-good about his game in two seasons in the majors.
The addition of Jenkins and Walden in this trade were less noteworthy to this trade, but for the Braves, the trade also gave them an exciting, if unknown, hurler. The Braves needed young pitching and if Walden smoothed over the concerns of the Cardinals, that was just fine because the Braves would find some relievers somewhere to help out. Right? ...sadface
I'm not a Cards expert, but we all knew the Cardinals saw Heyward as an immediate replacement to Oscar Taveras, the exciting rookie who had tragically perished in an automobile accident. Walden was also expected to shore up a bullpen that was losing Carlos Martinez to the rotation. Plus, I have to believe the Cards were not anxious to use a 40-man spot on the unknown Jenkins, but also didn't want to lose him in the Rule 5 draft for nothing.
Short-Term Results
Let's start with the Cardinals first. Heyward has largely stayed healthy and productive for the Cards this season, though the power numbers remain disappointing. He remains an elite-level player in center, though his metrics haven't been as crazy awesome as they were last year when he had 32 DRS. All in all, Heyward has been great for St. Louis and paces them in WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. He remains on track to hit free agency after the World Series - a Series the Cards are strong contenders to reach.
As for Walden, he got off to a great start, but hit the DL at the end of April with a biceps injury. Later on, rotator cuff trouble kept him on the mend and efforts to get back on the mound have proved unsuccessful. His season officially came to a close a few weeks ago. He's trying to avoid surgery because the rate of pitchers that return from that particular surgery is not high. Interestingly, a physical let the Cards know that his shoulder possibly had issues, but that didn't stop them from promising $6M through 2016 to Walden.
Very little hasn't been said about Miller at this point. Relying more on a two-seam fastball than ever, Miller has been a different pitcher for the Braves than he was with the Cardinals. Of course, we all know about the loses - a league-high 15 right now. He's gone 22 starts since his last win, a streak that ties Carl Morton for the most consecutive starts without a win for the Atlanta record and is four games off the pace for the franchise record. It should be added (I guess) that Miller's case is special since his streak is restrained to one season unlike the other two. Our old buddy Jo-Jo Reyes and Matt Keough hold the MLB record at 28 straight winless starts while Jack Nabors holds the single season record with 27.
But unlike them, Miller has been very productive. His 3.00 ERA, which is on the rise, would still set a new low. He's matched his previous two seasons' output with two shutouts in 2015 while already setting a new high in innings. He'll likely add a new strikeout high before the end of the season. On a team without a lot going right and even with Miller's crazy winless streak, he's been consistent for Atlanta in giving them a chance to win - even if they are too inept to take advantage of it.
As for Jenkins, he stayed (mostly) healthy this season for the first time in his career and logged 138.1 ING between AA and AAA. Just 23 years-old, Jenkins has a real opportunity to parlay his success into an extended look next spring.
Long-Term Outlook
Again, let's start with St. Louis. Walden is a toss-up at this point if he's going to avoid surgery and if he doesn't, it's a toss-up if he ever pitches in the majors again. That's unfortunate because he's such a fun pitcher to watch and when he's on, he's really on. Heyward's been hitting well this month and looks primed for a big pay day. If it doesn't come with the Cardinals, it'll come from someone. There is a real chance Heyward will get $200M this offseason even though people who value traditional counting stats won't understand why. Without a World Series ring, the Cardinals could be looking at one-and-done with Heyward and little from Walden as the price for Miller and Jenkins.
The Braves will take that exchange, of course. Miller seemed primed to spend the next few seasons helping to shore up the front of Atlanta's staff. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this season and has been pretty durable to this point. Atlanta might even look to lock Miller up for the foreseeable future rather than go year-to-year with him, though that's just a guess. As for Jenkins, again, he could be in the staff next spring, though I believe he'll be too low from the starting depth chart to sneak his way into the staff. Nevertheless, with some productive outings at Gwinnett, he'll be in the majors sooner rather than later.
Overall, Atlanta can make the claim that they've already won this deal, though the Cardinals could easily say they have the pitching to compete and adding Miller wouldn't have made them all that much better. Conversely, not having Heyward may have wrecked them. Either way, the Braves weren't going to keep Heyward and are glad to have a pair of arms to play on their next good team.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Random Ex-Brave: Freddy Garcia
His career with the Braves lasted just 27.1 regular season innings, but Freddy Garcia humorously became a part of Braves lore by uttering a simple statement. "I just make pitch." Yes, Freddy, that you do.
Garcia originally arrived in the majors in 1999 for a Seattle pitching staff that was still looking for answers in the post-Randy Johnson world. Speaking of the Big Unit, that's how Garcia joined the Mariners after being an Astros prospect. In his rookie year, he threw his first of a dozen career complete games on August 7, but took the loss. 17 days later, he toyed with a Detroit team that would lose 92 games that year, shutting them down for his first of four career shutouts while striking out 12. He needed 139 pitches to do it and the game was a career best for him in terms of Game Score (89) and set what would be his career high for strikeouts in one game (matched three years later against the Rangers).
Limited to just 21 games in 2000, the 24 year-old Garcia had his finest single season the following year. He paced the American League in ERA and innings while picking up a trio of shutouts. He was even better in the second half, increasing his strikeout numbers while walking fewer as the Mariners won 116 games. Garcia was an All-Star that season and in 2002, though his numbers aren't nearly as good. With the Mariners slumping two years later, they sent the righty to the White Sox for a trio of players, including Mike Morse. He stuck with the White Sox for two more seasons and pitched his final 200 inning campaign in 2006 - the 7th time in 8 years he had accomplished the feat. His highlight in the South Side came on October 26, 2005. With the White Sox leading the Astros 3-0 in the World Series, Garcia faced Brandon Backe. Yeah, pitching wasn't all that good back then. Each pitcher went seven scoreless innings with seven K's before the Astros went with Brad Lidge in the 8th. Willie Harris hit for Garcia and singled. Two outs, another former Brave, Jermaine Dye drove him in with a single. When Bobby Jenks induced a groundout from Orlando Palmeiro, Garcia was credited with a win in his only World Series game - a deciding one at that.
It might be tempting to read ERAs like 4.51 in his final year with the M's and 4.53 with the White Sox in 2006 and think that Garcia wasn't a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, but over six years where he logged 200 innings or more (2001-06), Garcia averaged 3.7 fWAR. He was a good performer - often underrated as a result of never being overpowering. He was a bit better than Russ Ortiz or essentially a pitcher that's good, but looks even better on a great team.
But Garcia would struggle badly in 2007-10. Dealt by the White Sox to the Phils for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez (ouch) because his former GM, Pat Gillick, still liked him, Garcia couldn't stay healthy for the Phils in 2007. He finished the year with 58 innings over eleven starts. Despite pitching for a team that finished 16 games over .500, the Phillies were just 5-6 with Garcia on the mound. He reached free agency for the first time and nobody came calling to his liking. It wasn't until August 12 of 2009 that he finally got signed - by the Tigers. He made three starts in September and got beat around a little. After the year, he signed with the Mets, but failed to make their 2009 squad and was cut before the season.
A few months later, the White Sox brought him back and he would start nine games with them, showing improved control. That bought him a return trip in 2010 and he made 28 starts, though all of his numbers suffered and despite a nine-start run the previous year being worth 1.5 fWAR, he managed just 1.4 in three times as many starts in 2010.
Still, Garcia was now a guy who provided veteran "presents" and a team looking for depth could use that. Right before pitchers and catchers were scheduled to report to camp in 2011, the Yankees added Garcia. Along with Bartolo Colon, the two righties helped to stabilize the staff while youngins' Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes matured. Garcia posted the second lowest ERA of his career at 3.62 and appeared in his first game out of the pen since 2011. The Yankees resigned Garcia for the following year, but he couldn't stay in the rotation this time and suffered through a 5.20 ERA in a shade over a hundred innings.
2013 would be an interesting year for Garcia. He signed with the Padres, but couldn't earn a spot on a rotation that sported the likes of Eric Stults, Edinson Volquez, Jason Marquis and Clayton Richard. Instead, he was cut and picked up by the Orioles. It would be his first extended stint in the minors since 1998. Over 13 starts, he did his job to the tune of a 2.84 ERA. He also saw time with the major league club, though the results were ugly (5.77 ERA, 6.73 FIP, 2.7 HR/9). By late August, he was back in AAA and probably looking at a possible recall to the majors in September for blow-out game duty only, but luckily for him, the Braves were desperate.
Atlanta had seen Tim Hudson go down in a heap in Shea Stadium and Paul Maholm was working his way back from his own injury. Atlanta was looking for adding support in case Alex Wood, who was in his first full professional season, faltered. Enter Garcia, who started one game for Gwinnett after the Braves "purchased him" before joining the influx of players once rosters expanded for September. He appeared in three games out of the bullpen with his first outing lasting 4.2 scoreless in relief of Wood, who had surrendered seven runs to the Marlins. The Braves ultimately flip-flopped Wood and Garcia with the latter joining the staff for three starts between September 12-24. The Braves won two of them and Garcia pitched well enough to win the one that Atlanta lose (7 ING, 1 R to the Nats).
The Braves chose Garcia as the fourth starter over Maholm and prepared for the NLDS. Atlanta would split a pair of games at home before heading to LA and getting smacked around 13-6 in Game 3. With a win-or-go home game tabbed for Monday, October 7, the Braves saw the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw on short rest while Garcia took the ball for the Braves. Kershaw, who graduated high school the same year of Garcia's final 200 inning campaign, was a tough task even on short rest, but Garcia wasn't worried. He told David O'Brien, "I don't panic. I just make pitch." It was a stupid rallying cry, but it gave us hope. Maybe he could just pitch and get this series back to Atlanta.
His fifth pitch to Dodgers leadoff batter Carl Crawford was a homer. His sixth pitch to Crawford in the third was also a homer. But the Braves bounced back in the 4th. A single, an error, and a wild pitch set up Chris Johnson, who singled in a run. A groundout led to a game-tying run and Garcia was back even with the Dodgers' ace. He was pinch-hit for in the seventh with Elliot Johnson on third after a triple. Jose Constanza rocketed a 2-1 pitch up the middle for an RBI. Suddenly, Garcia was the pitcher of record. Just need nine more outs.
But had the Braves done that, we would have never seen dejected Craig Kimbrel with his arms crossed. So, I guess that's something. After Juan Uribe broke David Carpenter and the Braves lost, Atlanta was still impressed enough to bring back Garcia to compete for a starting spot. Injuries seemed to help his chances, but the signing of Ervin Santana and surprising pitching of David Hale led the Braves to cut Garcia. He would not pitch again until the winter leagues. He was a late spring pick-up by the Dodgers heading into 2015, but lasted a month before being cut from their AAA roster. Since June, he's pitched in the Mexican League.
Garcia has slightly more than 2,250 innings in the major leagues and been a part of some good teams. He rarely impressed so much that fans of other teams wanted him on their team, but - especially before 2007 - he often pitched well enough that his own team's fans were pretty confident they had a good chance to win after Garcia took the mound. Now 38, Garcia may try to stick around through next spring and hope he gets an opportunity to make a roster. Hey, if his old teammate Colon can still do it, why not Garcia?
More Random Ex-Braves
John Thomson
Kent Mercker
George Lombard
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| Stephen Dunn | Getty Images |
Limited to just 21 games in 2000, the 24 year-old Garcia had his finest single season the following year. He paced the American League in ERA and innings while picking up a trio of shutouts. He was even better in the second half, increasing his strikeout numbers while walking fewer as the Mariners won 116 games. Garcia was an All-Star that season and in 2002, though his numbers aren't nearly as good. With the Mariners slumping two years later, they sent the righty to the White Sox for a trio of players, including Mike Morse. He stuck with the White Sox for two more seasons and pitched his final 200 inning campaign in 2006 - the 7th time in 8 years he had accomplished the feat. His highlight in the South Side came on October 26, 2005. With the White Sox leading the Astros 3-0 in the World Series, Garcia faced Brandon Backe. Yeah, pitching wasn't all that good back then. Each pitcher went seven scoreless innings with seven K's before the Astros went with Brad Lidge in the 8th. Willie Harris hit for Garcia and singled. Two outs, another former Brave, Jermaine Dye drove him in with a single. When Bobby Jenks induced a groundout from Orlando Palmeiro, Garcia was credited with a win in his only World Series game - a deciding one at that.
It might be tempting to read ERAs like 4.51 in his final year with the M's and 4.53 with the White Sox in 2006 and think that Garcia wasn't a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, but over six years where he logged 200 innings or more (2001-06), Garcia averaged 3.7 fWAR. He was a good performer - often underrated as a result of never being overpowering. He was a bit better than Russ Ortiz or essentially a pitcher that's good, but looks even better on a great team.
But Garcia would struggle badly in 2007-10. Dealt by the White Sox to the Phils for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez (ouch) because his former GM, Pat Gillick, still liked him, Garcia couldn't stay healthy for the Phils in 2007. He finished the year with 58 innings over eleven starts. Despite pitching for a team that finished 16 games over .500, the Phillies were just 5-6 with Garcia on the mound. He reached free agency for the first time and nobody came calling to his liking. It wasn't until August 12 of 2009 that he finally got signed - by the Tigers. He made three starts in September and got beat around a little. After the year, he signed with the Mets, but failed to make their 2009 squad and was cut before the season.
A few months later, the White Sox brought him back and he would start nine games with them, showing improved control. That bought him a return trip in 2010 and he made 28 starts, though all of his numbers suffered and despite a nine-start run the previous year being worth 1.5 fWAR, he managed just 1.4 in three times as many starts in 2010.
Still, Garcia was now a guy who provided veteran "presents" and a team looking for depth could use that. Right before pitchers and catchers were scheduled to report to camp in 2011, the Yankees added Garcia. Along with Bartolo Colon, the two righties helped to stabilize the staff while youngins' Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes matured. Garcia posted the second lowest ERA of his career at 3.62 and appeared in his first game out of the pen since 2011. The Yankees resigned Garcia for the following year, but he couldn't stay in the rotation this time and suffered through a 5.20 ERA in a shade over a hundred innings.
2013 would be an interesting year for Garcia. He signed with the Padres, but couldn't earn a spot on a rotation that sported the likes of Eric Stults, Edinson Volquez, Jason Marquis and Clayton Richard. Instead, he was cut and picked up by the Orioles. It would be his first extended stint in the minors since 1998. Over 13 starts, he did his job to the tune of a 2.84 ERA. He also saw time with the major league club, though the results were ugly (5.77 ERA, 6.73 FIP, 2.7 HR/9). By late August, he was back in AAA and probably looking at a possible recall to the majors in September for blow-out game duty only, but luckily for him, the Braves were desperate.
Atlanta had seen Tim Hudson go down in a heap in Shea Stadium and Paul Maholm was working his way back from his own injury. Atlanta was looking for adding support in case Alex Wood, who was in his first full professional season, faltered. Enter Garcia, who started one game for Gwinnett after the Braves "purchased him" before joining the influx of players once rosters expanded for September. He appeared in three games out of the bullpen with his first outing lasting 4.2 scoreless in relief of Wood, who had surrendered seven runs to the Marlins. The Braves ultimately flip-flopped Wood and Garcia with the latter joining the staff for three starts between September 12-24. The Braves won two of them and Garcia pitched well enough to win the one that Atlanta lose (7 ING, 1 R to the Nats).
The Braves chose Garcia as the fourth starter over Maholm and prepared for the NLDS. Atlanta would split a pair of games at home before heading to LA and getting smacked around 13-6 in Game 3. With a win-or-go home game tabbed for Monday, October 7, the Braves saw the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw on short rest while Garcia took the ball for the Braves. Kershaw, who graduated high school the same year of Garcia's final 200 inning campaign, was a tough task even on short rest, but Garcia wasn't worried. He told David O'Brien, "I don't panic. I just make pitch." It was a stupid rallying cry, but it gave us hope. Maybe he could just pitch and get this series back to Atlanta.
His fifth pitch to Dodgers leadoff batter Carl Crawford was a homer. His sixth pitch to Crawford in the third was also a homer. But the Braves bounced back in the 4th. A single, an error, and a wild pitch set up Chris Johnson, who singled in a run. A groundout led to a game-tying run and Garcia was back even with the Dodgers' ace. He was pinch-hit for in the seventh with Elliot Johnson on third after a triple. Jose Constanza rocketed a 2-1 pitch up the middle for an RBI. Suddenly, Garcia was the pitcher of record. Just need nine more outs.
But had the Braves done that, we would have never seen dejected Craig Kimbrel with his arms crossed. So, I guess that's something. After Juan Uribe broke David Carpenter and the Braves lost, Atlanta was still impressed enough to bring back Garcia to compete for a starting spot. Injuries seemed to help his chances, but the signing of Ervin Santana and surprising pitching of David Hale led the Braves to cut Garcia. He would not pitch again until the winter leagues. He was a late spring pick-up by the Dodgers heading into 2015, but lasted a month before being cut from their AAA roster. Since June, he's pitched in the Mexican League.
Garcia has slightly more than 2,250 innings in the major leagues and been a part of some good teams. He rarely impressed so much that fans of other teams wanted him on their team, but - especially before 2007 - he often pitched well enough that his own team's fans were pretty confident they had a good chance to win after Garcia took the mound. Now 38, Garcia may try to stick around through next spring and hope he gets an opportunity to make a roster. Hey, if his old teammate Colon can still do it, why not Garcia?
More Random Ex-Braves
John Thomson
Kent Mercker
George Lombard
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Once a Brave, Always a Brave: Opening Day Rosters
This series keeps tabs on how former Braves are doing in the league. Typically, I will focus on one division or even one team in isolated situations, but there's not a lot to report right now so I will focus more on which former Braves made opening day rosters in other cities. If I counted correctly, there are 62 former Braves (or Braves farmhands) who either were on the opening day roster or the DL. Only four teams are currently without a Brave, which is probably why they will fail in 2015.
Arizona
Nick Ahmed
Randall Delgado
Gerald Laird
Baltimore
None surprisingly enough
Boston
Anthony Varvaro
Chicago Cubs
David Ross
Tommy La Stella
Chicago White Sox
Emilio Bonifacio
Melky Cabrera
Tyler Flowers
Adam LaRoche
Cincinnati
J.J. Hoover
Jason Marquis (seriously?)
Brayan Pena
Cleveland
Michael Bourn
Colorado
David Hale (DL)
Boone Logan
Detroit
None
Houston
Evan Gattis
Brett Oberholtzer (DL, minor league Brave)
Kansas City
Omar Infante
Kris Medlen (DL)
Los Angeles Angels in the Outfield
Cory Rasmus (DL)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Brandon Beachy (DL)
Miami
Jeff Baker (do you remember that?)
Mike Dunn
Martin Prado
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Minnesota
Blaine Boyer
J.R. Graham (sob)
Ervin Santana (suspended)
Jordan Schafer
Milwaukee
None
New York Mets
Buddy Carlyle
Sean Gilmartin (why have you forsaken us, Ryan Doumit?)
New York Yankees
David Carpenter
Garrett Jones (he played in the minors for the Braves)
Brian McCann
Chasen Shreve
Mark Teixeira
Pittsburgh
Jeff Locke
Charlie Morton (DL)
Philadelphia
Jeff Francoeur
Aaron Harang
Oakland
Jesse Chavez
Eric O'Flaherty
San Diego
Craig Kimbrel
Justin Upton
Melvin Upton Jr.(DL)
San Francisco
Erik Cordier (DL)
Gregor Blanco
Tim Hudson
Seattle
Jesus Sucre
St. Louis
Matt Belisle
Jason Heyward (fresh wounds)
Adam Wainwright (old wounds)
Jordan Walden
Tampa Bay
None
Texas
Elvis Andrus
Neftali Feliz
Matt Harrison (DL...shocker)
Toronto
Todd Redmond (four days with the Braves, never played)
Washington
Yunel Escobar
Nate McLouth (DL)
Reed Johnson
Dan Uggla (excusing Reed, this list of players should make us root against the Nats all the more)
Arizona
Nick Ahmed
Randall Delgado
Gerald Laird
Baltimore
None surprisingly enough
Boston
Anthony Varvaro
Chicago Cubs
David Ross
Tommy La Stella
Chicago White Sox
Emilio Bonifacio
Melky Cabrera
Tyler Flowers
Adam LaRoche
Cincinnati
J.J. Hoover
Jason Marquis (seriously?)
Brayan Pena
Cleveland
Michael Bourn
Colorado
David Hale (DL)
Boone Logan
Detroit
None
Houston
Evan Gattis
Brett Oberholtzer (DL, minor league Brave)
Kansas City
Omar Infante
Kris Medlen (DL)
Los Angeles Angels in the Outfield
Cory Rasmus (DL)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Brandon Beachy (DL)
Miami
Jeff Baker (do you remember that?)
Mike Dunn
Martin Prado
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Minnesota
Blaine Boyer
J.R. Graham (sob)
Ervin Santana (suspended)
Jordan Schafer
Milwaukee
None
New York Mets
Buddy Carlyle
Sean Gilmartin (why have you forsaken us, Ryan Doumit?)
New York Yankees
David Carpenter
Garrett Jones (he played in the minors for the Braves)
Brian McCann
Chasen Shreve
Mark Teixeira
Pittsburgh
Jeff Locke
Charlie Morton (DL)
Philadelphia
Jeff Francoeur
Aaron Harang
Oakland
Jesse Chavez
Eric O'Flaherty
San Diego
Craig Kimbrel
Justin Upton
Melvin Upton Jr.(DL)
San Francisco
Erik Cordier (DL)
Gregor Blanco
Tim Hudson
Seattle
Jesus Sucre
St. Louis
Matt Belisle
Jason Heyward (fresh wounds)
Adam Wainwright (old wounds)
Jordan Walden
Tampa Bay
None
Texas
Elvis Andrus
Neftali Feliz
Matt Harrison (DL...shocker)
Toronto
Todd Redmond (four days with the Braves, never played)
Washington
Yunel Escobar
Nate McLouth (DL)
Reed Johnson
Dan Uggla (excusing Reed, this list of players should make us root against the Nats all the more)
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Alex Wood Is a Force
Not getting any run support has to be tough on a pitcher. We statheads get a bad rap because some people believe we think players are thoughtless, lifeless voids playing as if they were computers. This is a ridiculous viewpoint, but it still seems to be the prevailing thought as if statistical analysis somehow negates the sense that baseball players are, ya know, human beings. For instance, it must be tough on a pitcher to know that each time he goes out, there will be no runs to work with. The pressure of knowing that just giving up a solo homerun could be the difference between a win or a loss must be taxing on a player's mind.
But Alex Wood seemed to thrive even though he was so royally screwed by his offense last year. Only two NL starters pitched at least 125 innings last year and received less than three runs of support per game start. Eric Stults, in camp as a Braves minor league free agent, received just 2.5 runs of support last year. Wood is the other one. 2.8 runs of support each game start. This is why the win-loss record should be retired. Wood was 11-11 last year while Ervin Santana was 14-10. Wood thoroughly outpitched Santana, but the Braves loved Santana so much they gave him 4.3 RS/GS. Lucky bastard.
The Braves actually won just ten of Wood's 24 starts, the worst win-loss% on the team. But he also was tied with the league-lead in tough losses with seven, which are classified as games where you have a game score of 50 or better, but you still take the L. Wood finished sixth in the league with an average game score of 60.2, by the way. Clayton Kershaw had a 70.3 average, but Wood was just five points back from second place. I wrote about Game Score before and as flawed as it might be, it gives us a good idea of the pitcher's overall performance.
That tells us that despite not getting any runs of support, Wood pitched as well as any pitcher in the National League last season not named Kershaw and had the ability to not let his win-loss record bother him to the point that it affected his pitching. Maybe that mental strength came from being told for so long that his delivery was too ugly to let him be successful. I don't personally know, but I do know that when a kid averages 101 pitches per game and 79% of his starts are classified as quality starts, there's something here to be excited about. I still like Julio Teheran to have the better career, but Wood's off to just about as good of a start.
His saber stats check out as well. In 171.2 ING last year, he posted a 3.25 FIP built in no small part by a 3.8 K/BB rate. Overall his nearly 250 inning career, he has a 3.19 xFIP. There is absolutely no sign that this is a fluke. Even if you think his delivery is playing a part as far as deception goes and he's due for a significant injury lay-off, you have to concede that up until this point, he's been better than even advertised.
All of this brings me to think that 2015 might be Wood's year and that's saying something considering how good he's been already. Up until now, the Braves have limited Wood by using him as a reliever at times over the last two years to keep his innings down. But it might be time for the Braves to take the training wheels off and see what Wood can do. At his current rate, the only thing that will keep him out of the All-Star Game this year is manager's insistence on rewarding pitchers with good win-loss records. But I would love to call Wood an All-Star snub. That means he's doing his job with excellence yet again.
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| Otto Greule Jr | Getty Images Sport |
The Braves actually won just ten of Wood's 24 starts, the worst win-loss% on the team. But he also was tied with the league-lead in tough losses with seven, which are classified as games where you have a game score of 50 or better, but you still take the L. Wood finished sixth in the league with an average game score of 60.2, by the way. Clayton Kershaw had a 70.3 average, but Wood was just five points back from second place. I wrote about Game Score before and as flawed as it might be, it gives us a good idea of the pitcher's overall performance.
That tells us that despite not getting any runs of support, Wood pitched as well as any pitcher in the National League last season not named Kershaw and had the ability to not let his win-loss record bother him to the point that it affected his pitching. Maybe that mental strength came from being told for so long that his delivery was too ugly to let him be successful. I don't personally know, but I do know that when a kid averages 101 pitches per game and 79% of his starts are classified as quality starts, there's something here to be excited about. I still like Julio Teheran to have the better career, but Wood's off to just about as good of a start.
His saber stats check out as well. In 171.2 ING last year, he posted a 3.25 FIP built in no small part by a 3.8 K/BB rate. Overall his nearly 250 inning career, he has a 3.19 xFIP. There is absolutely no sign that this is a fluke. Even if you think his delivery is playing a part as far as deception goes and he's due for a significant injury lay-off, you have to concede that up until this point, he's been better than even advertised.
All of this brings me to think that 2015 might be Wood's year and that's saying something considering how good he's been already. Up until now, the Braves have limited Wood by using him as a reliever at times over the last two years to keep his innings down. But it might be time for the Braves to take the training wheels off and see what Wood can do. At his current rate, the only thing that will keep him out of the All-Star Game this year is manager's insistence on rewarding pitchers with good win-loss records. But I would love to call Wood an All-Star snub. That means he's doing his job with excellence yet again.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Spring Training Preview: Starting Pitching
Though the season is 83 days away and the hyper-active Braves could possibly deal and/or sign a starter, which seems likely, I have to start the spring training previews some time so here we go.
While they lacked the star power of past rotations, the Braves had a nice and productive starting staff in 2014. When compared to the rest of the league, the Braves had the fifth best ERA, the sixth lowest FIP, and were tenth in xFIP. They even provided innings that took away some of the need of the bullpen by throwing the second most in baseball. They did it with eight pitchers and endured a massively disappointing season from one starter and an injury-shortened year from a guy who looked like he was coming into his own. Oh, and two other starters saw their 2014 end before it even started.
What will 2015 possibly bring? Let's dive in.
Before we start, let's say goodbye to...Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, Aaron Harang, Kris Medlen, Ervin Santana...You read that right. The Braves lost an entire starting rotation this offseason, though they apparently still have some interest in the one who has yet to find work - Beachy, who along with Medlen, missed the season after yet another Tommy John surgery. Beachy wasn't counted on quite as much as Meds was for 2014, but both were loses for a rotation that was missing two starters even before the season started. That left Frank Wren to cobble together a competent rotation and to his credit, he did just that with Santana and Harang. The former posted a 2.8 fWAR over 196 innings with 8.2 K/9 and a solid 3.39 FIP. It took a bit of luck to get him to Atlanta. The market had to go to crap on him last offseason and the price tag on a one-year deal had to become prohibitive for other clubs, but he was ultimately a Godsend. It wasn't too much of a surprise, though, as Santana had been recently successful in the majors. Harang, on the other hand, was an ultimate find for Wren and his team. Cast off by the Indians before the season, the Braves signed him with no high expectations that he would even pitch more than a month for them. They had guys on the mend and simply needed a dependable placeholder for several weeks to open the year. What they got was 204.1 innings, a 2.5 fWAR, and one of the better under-reported stories in baseball. Recently, the Phillies signed Harang to a one-year deal, which was a bit surprising considering his success last year. Finally, Floyd was a nice bargain find for Wren and it looked like a masterstroke before Floyd's elbow sought to escape his body. He was showing glimpses of the good Floyd from his White Sox years. But...oh well.
What's left? Who's new? Is all hope lost?
At the top of the rotation is Julio Teheran and that's a damn good thing considering he's signed long term _and_ turns just 24 in two weeks. Teheran is a study on why you trust the process sometimes over the results. A lot of people grew skeptical of him after a 2012 season with Gwinnett where the K's fell, the homers sky-rocketed, and his FIP neared 6.00. But that's why prospects deserve time to tinker and try to better their overall game. It's not really known if that lost year truly helped Teheran, but after a 2.5 fWAR in 2013 and 3.2 fWAR last year, I think it's safe to say he's not any worse for wear. Teheran continues to try to improve a fourth pitch, a run-of-the-mill change-up and it appears if he does that this year to go along with his steady low-90's heat and plus breaking pitches, he'll take another step forward. Sure, people will write that the Braves lack a real ace. But we can't help that people are idiots.
Behind Teheran is Alex Wood...at least, in my book. At a certain point, we have to stop worrying and learn to love the delivery. Sure, it's quirky, but Wood did throw 171.2 ING last season and when you add his minor league seasons, 139.2 ING the previous year. The Braves can still try to limit innings when they can, but we are talking about a guy who has a 2.84 ERA in 212.1 ING as a starter over his career with 205 K's along with a 1.19 WHIP, 3.18 FIP, and 3.32 xFIP. Seriously, he's good and yes, the delivery still boggles the mind, but it doesn't mean he won't be very successful in the majors.
Shelby Miller takes up the third spot and splits the lefties in the staff. After a rather productive rookie season in 2013, Miller was the opposite of Teheran in 2014 as he simply got worse across the board. On the plus side, a late season switch toward throwing a high fastball more effectively to set up his curveball led to positive results. He walked two less per nine innings in the second half, saw a minor increase in K%, and cut his WHIP by 50 points. It still wasn't great as his 4.20 FIP suggests, but it was getting him moving in the right direction. Miller is limited in that he basically has just two pitches so keeping the batters from making a lot of contact is paramount to his success. He's not going to live on putting the ball in play considering deception's not his strong suit. Basically, he needs to change the batter's eye level to set up his plus-plus curve and get swinging strikes. He only got 7% of them last year. For him to get back to 2013 Miller, that number needs a good increase.
In the four spot is Mike Minor, who is a year removed from looking like a possible front-of-the-rotation fixture. After a 3.37 FIP and 3.5 fWAR campaign during the 2013 season, Minor struggled through injuries and just bad play, posting a 4.39 FIP. Unlike Miller, we can't look at anything in particular and say "hey, he was turning it around" except that maybe he was unlucky to a degree (3.90 xFIP wasn't that much worse than 3.64 the previous year). One thing that really stands out is hitters were making an exorbiant amount of contact on pitches outside the zone. In 2013, it was 63.6%, about three ticks below the league average. In 2014, it was about nine points higher. In addition, they connected on 91% of all swings in the strikezone, an increase of four percent. This screams to me that Minor's stuff was either mediocre, predictable, or both. If you watched him last year, he saw a return of 2011-12 Minor...the guy who nibbles and hopes for the best, not the 2013 guy who pitched with confidence. It's a make-of-break season for Minor. He can't survive in baseball getting just 7% of swinging strikes. Hitters will brutalize him.
The fifth spot...well, that's where things get more interesting than just discussing the question marks with Miller and Minor. By not re-signing Harang and with no veteran replacement in house, the Braves are left with a group that currently lacks a real leader. The way I'll preview each is in how I rank them right now, which might not match the Braves. So, take this with a massive grain of salt.
Our first contender is Manny Banuelos, who the Braves acquired on New Year's Day for a pair of relievers. Banuelos is only a couple of seasons removed from being a pretty good prospect. In 2011, he struck out over 8 K/9 while moving from AA to AAA, but his next season was cut short by Tommy John and it was a slow recovery process to get him back into the picture. He threw less than a hundred innings last year as the Yankees took a conservative approach with him and while the velocity was starting to return for the left-hander. As we can probably expect, his control, especially with his fastball, was suspect and he gave up an unusually high amount of homers, which I would guess was from elevating his fastball too often. Atlanta probably doesn't want him to open the season in the majors if they can help it, but right now, I'd label him their best option. For what it's worth, Banuelos has only one option left so sending him to the minors would use that up, but for a team that is unlikely to compete the next couple of seasons, they can certainly deal with that.
If the Braves don't go the veteran route and want to handle ManBan with kid gloves, David Hale would appear as the most likely option to handle the fifth spot. Hale spent all of 2014 in the majors, logging 87.1 ING and starting six of his 45 appearances. He posted a 3.30 ERA and 56% groundball rate. And I hate him. Actually, I don't. He's probably a great guy who is simply trying to make the most out of a limited skill set. I hate that many believe he's a capable major leaguer based on that 3.30 ERA despite a FIP that was a run higher. There is some evidence, though in a pretty short sample size, that Hale would make a better starter than a reliever (6 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.65 FIP) but I would caution not to put too much value into that. Most of those starts came in the first month of the season before batters readjusted for him. The real thing to be concerned with is that Hale lacks a plus pitch.
Though he was unprotected in the Rule 5, Cody Martin would appear to have a good shot to get into the discussion for the fifth spot. Martin appears to have the minor league vet label even though he's only been around four years. He's put up fairly impressive stats at each stop, though he's never cracked a Top 20 prospects list. He's probably a tick worse than Hale and would struggle to hold down a job in the majors. But...I guess we'll never know if he never gets a shot.
James Russell started the season's final game and was a former starter. With his reverse splits from last year and Mark Bowman reporting that he might be stretched out early in spring training, plus the signing of Josh Outman, why not Russell? If he fails, he's a proven major league reliever and can fall back in that role. If it's between Hale and Russell, I'd give the latter the chance. If he surprises for a few months, you could easily turn him into a prospect at the deadline.
It's early, but why not Tyrell Jenkins? Yes, he only pitched, with the AFL included, 98.1 innings last year and yes, he has yet to appear in AA. But if he has a tremendous spring and impresses everyone while mowing down hitters...he'll still head to the minors. Who are we kidding? This is a rebuilding process and starting Jenkins' clock early doesn't help anyone. Same goes for Jason Hursh, the 2013 first rounder who logged 148.1 ING at AA and didn't really impress anyone. Why start his clock early when you need to find out what you have? Especially when we already have Chien-Ming Wang, who signed a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. That's an option, I guess. Funny story. Last year, at AAA, Wang struck out 73 batters. He walked 57. That rate shouldn't exist in 2014, but there it was. While we're at it, why not mention Daniel Winkler? Because he'll miss most of the season and this is a spring training preview, that's why.
The 2015 rotation could easily surprise some people and could easily be a dumpster fire. Of course, I could end nearly every preview article like that. There is promise and the youth is exciting, but it's easy to think the Braves rotation will be worse next year than it was in 2014. And it could be better. But probably worse.
While they lacked the star power of past rotations, the Braves had a nice and productive starting staff in 2014. When compared to the rest of the league, the Braves had the fifth best ERA, the sixth lowest FIP, and were tenth in xFIP. They even provided innings that took away some of the need of the bullpen by throwing the second most in baseball. They did it with eight pitchers and endured a massively disappointing season from one starter and an injury-shortened year from a guy who looked like he was coming into his own. Oh, and two other starters saw their 2014 end before it even started.
What will 2015 possibly bring? Let's dive in.
Before we start, let's say goodbye to...Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, Aaron Harang, Kris Medlen, Ervin Santana...You read that right. The Braves lost an entire starting rotation this offseason, though they apparently still have some interest in the one who has yet to find work - Beachy, who along with Medlen, missed the season after yet another Tommy John surgery. Beachy wasn't counted on quite as much as Meds was for 2014, but both were loses for a rotation that was missing two starters even before the season started. That left Frank Wren to cobble together a competent rotation and to his credit, he did just that with Santana and Harang. The former posted a 2.8 fWAR over 196 innings with 8.2 K/9 and a solid 3.39 FIP. It took a bit of luck to get him to Atlanta. The market had to go to crap on him last offseason and the price tag on a one-year deal had to become prohibitive for other clubs, but he was ultimately a Godsend. It wasn't too much of a surprise, though, as Santana had been recently successful in the majors. Harang, on the other hand, was an ultimate find for Wren and his team. Cast off by the Indians before the season, the Braves signed him with no high expectations that he would even pitch more than a month for them. They had guys on the mend and simply needed a dependable placeholder for several weeks to open the year. What they got was 204.1 innings, a 2.5 fWAR, and one of the better under-reported stories in baseball. Recently, the Phillies signed Harang to a one-year deal, which was a bit surprising considering his success last year. Finally, Floyd was a nice bargain find for Wren and it looked like a masterstroke before Floyd's elbow sought to escape his body. He was showing glimpses of the good Floyd from his White Sox years. But...oh well.
What's left? Who's new? Is all hope lost?
At the top of the rotation is Julio Teheran and that's a damn good thing considering he's signed long term _and_ turns just 24 in two weeks. Teheran is a study on why you trust the process sometimes over the results. A lot of people grew skeptical of him after a 2012 season with Gwinnett where the K's fell, the homers sky-rocketed, and his FIP neared 6.00. But that's why prospects deserve time to tinker and try to better their overall game. It's not really known if that lost year truly helped Teheran, but after a 2.5 fWAR in 2013 and 3.2 fWAR last year, I think it's safe to say he's not any worse for wear. Teheran continues to try to improve a fourth pitch, a run-of-the-mill change-up and it appears if he does that this year to go along with his steady low-90's heat and plus breaking pitches, he'll take another step forward. Sure, people will write that the Braves lack a real ace. But we can't help that people are idiots.
Behind Teheran is Alex Wood...at least, in my book. At a certain point, we have to stop worrying and learn to love the delivery. Sure, it's quirky, but Wood did throw 171.2 ING last season and when you add his minor league seasons, 139.2 ING the previous year. The Braves can still try to limit innings when they can, but we are talking about a guy who has a 2.84 ERA in 212.1 ING as a starter over his career with 205 K's along with a 1.19 WHIP, 3.18 FIP, and 3.32 xFIP. Seriously, he's good and yes, the delivery still boggles the mind, but it doesn't mean he won't be very successful in the majors.
Shelby Miller takes up the third spot and splits the lefties in the staff. After a rather productive rookie season in 2013, Miller was the opposite of Teheran in 2014 as he simply got worse across the board. On the plus side, a late season switch toward throwing a high fastball more effectively to set up his curveball led to positive results. He walked two less per nine innings in the second half, saw a minor increase in K%, and cut his WHIP by 50 points. It still wasn't great as his 4.20 FIP suggests, but it was getting him moving in the right direction. Miller is limited in that he basically has just two pitches so keeping the batters from making a lot of contact is paramount to his success. He's not going to live on putting the ball in play considering deception's not his strong suit. Basically, he needs to change the batter's eye level to set up his plus-plus curve and get swinging strikes. He only got 7% of them last year. For him to get back to 2013 Miller, that number needs a good increase.
In the four spot is Mike Minor, who is a year removed from looking like a possible front-of-the-rotation fixture. After a 3.37 FIP and 3.5 fWAR campaign during the 2013 season, Minor struggled through injuries and just bad play, posting a 4.39 FIP. Unlike Miller, we can't look at anything in particular and say "hey, he was turning it around" except that maybe he was unlucky to a degree (3.90 xFIP wasn't that much worse than 3.64 the previous year). One thing that really stands out is hitters were making an exorbiant amount of contact on pitches outside the zone. In 2013, it was 63.6%, about three ticks below the league average. In 2014, it was about nine points higher. In addition, they connected on 91% of all swings in the strikezone, an increase of four percent. This screams to me that Minor's stuff was either mediocre, predictable, or both. If you watched him last year, he saw a return of 2011-12 Minor...the guy who nibbles and hopes for the best, not the 2013 guy who pitched with confidence. It's a make-of-break season for Minor. He can't survive in baseball getting just 7% of swinging strikes. Hitters will brutalize him.
The fifth spot...well, that's where things get more interesting than just discussing the question marks with Miller and Minor. By not re-signing Harang and with no veteran replacement in house, the Braves are left with a group that currently lacks a real leader. The way I'll preview each is in how I rank them right now, which might not match the Braves. So, take this with a massive grain of salt.
Our first contender is Manny Banuelos, who the Braves acquired on New Year's Day for a pair of relievers. Banuelos is only a couple of seasons removed from being a pretty good prospect. In 2011, he struck out over 8 K/9 while moving from AA to AAA, but his next season was cut short by Tommy John and it was a slow recovery process to get him back into the picture. He threw less than a hundred innings last year as the Yankees took a conservative approach with him and while the velocity was starting to return for the left-hander. As we can probably expect, his control, especially with his fastball, was suspect and he gave up an unusually high amount of homers, which I would guess was from elevating his fastball too often. Atlanta probably doesn't want him to open the season in the majors if they can help it, but right now, I'd label him their best option. For what it's worth, Banuelos has only one option left so sending him to the minors would use that up, but for a team that is unlikely to compete the next couple of seasons, they can certainly deal with that.
If the Braves don't go the veteran route and want to handle ManBan with kid gloves, David Hale would appear as the most likely option to handle the fifth spot. Hale spent all of 2014 in the majors, logging 87.1 ING and starting six of his 45 appearances. He posted a 3.30 ERA and 56% groundball rate. And I hate him. Actually, I don't. He's probably a great guy who is simply trying to make the most out of a limited skill set. I hate that many believe he's a capable major leaguer based on that 3.30 ERA despite a FIP that was a run higher. There is some evidence, though in a pretty short sample size, that Hale would make a better starter than a reliever (6 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.65 FIP) but I would caution not to put too much value into that. Most of those starts came in the first month of the season before batters readjusted for him. The real thing to be concerned with is that Hale lacks a plus pitch.
Though he was unprotected in the Rule 5, Cody Martin would appear to have a good shot to get into the discussion for the fifth spot. Martin appears to have the minor league vet label even though he's only been around four years. He's put up fairly impressive stats at each stop, though he's never cracked a Top 20 prospects list. He's probably a tick worse than Hale and would struggle to hold down a job in the majors. But...I guess we'll never know if he never gets a shot.
James Russell started the season's final game and was a former starter. With his reverse splits from last year and Mark Bowman reporting that he might be stretched out early in spring training, plus the signing of Josh Outman, why not Russell? If he fails, he's a proven major league reliever and can fall back in that role. If it's between Hale and Russell, I'd give the latter the chance. If he surprises for a few months, you could easily turn him into a prospect at the deadline.
It's early, but why not Tyrell Jenkins? Yes, he only pitched, with the AFL included, 98.1 innings last year and yes, he has yet to appear in AA. But if he has a tremendous spring and impresses everyone while mowing down hitters...he'll still head to the minors. Who are we kidding? This is a rebuilding process and starting Jenkins' clock early doesn't help anyone. Same goes for Jason Hursh, the 2013 first rounder who logged 148.1 ING at AA and didn't really impress anyone. Why start his clock early when you need to find out what you have? Especially when we already have Chien-Ming Wang, who signed a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. That's an option, I guess. Funny story. Last year, at AAA, Wang struck out 73 batters. He walked 57. That rate shouldn't exist in 2014, but there it was. While we're at it, why not mention Daniel Winkler? Because he'll miss most of the season and this is a spring training preview, that's why.
The 2015 rotation could easily surprise some people and could easily be a dumpster fire. Of course, I could end nearly every preview article like that. There is promise and the youth is exciting, but it's easy to think the Braves rotation will be worse next year than it was in 2014. And it could be better. But probably worse.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
See ya, Ervin!
On Thursday, former Braves right-hander and joy to follow on Twitter, Ervin Santana, agreed to a four year contract with the Minnesota Twins. He will earn $55M with the possibility of getting another $14M as part of a conditional vesting option for a fifth season. It's a strange continuation of what we have seen this offseason. Only a few years ago, pitchers like Santana (good innings eaters, but not anchors of the rotation) would be closer to $8-$10M annually, but current market value with inflation pushes that total closer and closer to $15M. To put that in highly uninformative perspective, the 1991 Braves had an estimated payroll of $18M.
Back to Santana, the Braves appeared to have long ago accepted that he was a goner. Interestingly, they flirted with the idea of signing Jon Lester and were attached at one point to Justin Masterson so it's not like the Braves weren't interested in spending money on a free agent starter. That starter simply wasn't going to be Santana, though.
It took a series of steps for Santana to even be a Brave in the first place. First, he had to post a good, but not great year with the Royals in 2013. Check. The Royals would have to extend a qualifying offer his way and watch Santana decline in hopes of a longer term contract. Check. Teams would have to sour on Santana's demands and move on. Several times a check. The Braves would need their pitching depth to disappear in the wake of a series of injuries. Check (and check). Frank Wren and John Schuerholz would need to get permission to increase the budget to bring Santana aboard. That final check was worth $14.1M, or essentially what Santana would have gotten had he accepted the Royals' qualifying offer in the first place.
Santana slotted into the Braves staff and performed even better than expected. He struck out 179 batters, the second most of his career, and saw his HR/FB rate fall under 9% for the first time since 2008. He basically pitched as well as he had in 2008, his breakout season for the Angels. Except in a pitching saturated market, that season was a six WAR season while this year was slightly less than three WAR. His success with the Braves was despite a higher than normal BABIP of .319, which probably aided to a 1.31 when his other metrics looked much better.
One key change for Santana in 2014 was the usage of his change-up, a rarely used secondary offering before last year. He went to it 14% of the time, double what he did the two years before, and for the first time since his rookie year, he was a true three-pitch pitcher. That upped his ability to get swings and misses, especially on "pitcher's pitches" (Outside the Zone Swing% up & Outside the Zone Contact%, Contact%, and Pitches inside the Zone% down). That's a great development for a pitcher known entirely for his ability to be durable.
Last winter, Santana bet on himself. It was a dangerous position because certain factors were considerably working against him (qualifying offer, a 2012 abysmal season). But in the end, he gained nothing and lost nothing as he got the same total he would have settled for to begin with. It was a gamble and it paid off as he entered free agency this year coming off a pair of consecutive solid seasons that made his 2012 year look like simply a down season. The Braves, like the Royals last winter, extended a qualifying offer. This time, it had little affect as the Twins were immediately interested.
The Braves ultimately lost nothing, too. They surrendered the 26th overall pick last spring to sign Santana. The Red Sox used that pick to grab Georgia-native Michael Chavis, though the Braves may have still gone with Braxton Davidson, who they picked with the 32nd overall selection. Now, the Braves will gain a compensation draft choice in the 2015 draft to go with their first round pick.
In the end, the Ervin Santana signing worked out well for both sides. He was given the chance to pitch in a ballpark that is kind to flyball pitchers and pitch in a league that doesn't include the DH. The Braves were able to remain competitive until their offensive woes became too overwhelming. And we were also unintentionally given the gift of a hilarious hash tag. Everybody wins!
Back to Santana, the Braves appeared to have long ago accepted that he was a goner. Interestingly, they flirted with the idea of signing Jon Lester and were attached at one point to Justin Masterson so it's not like the Braves weren't interested in spending money on a free agent starter. That starter simply wasn't going to be Santana, though.
It took a series of steps for Santana to even be a Brave in the first place. First, he had to post a good, but not great year with the Royals in 2013. Check. The Royals would have to extend a qualifying offer his way and watch Santana decline in hopes of a longer term contract. Check. Teams would have to sour on Santana's demands and move on. Several times a check. The Braves would need their pitching depth to disappear in the wake of a series of injuries. Check (and check). Frank Wren and John Schuerholz would need to get permission to increase the budget to bring Santana aboard. That final check was worth $14.1M, or essentially what Santana would have gotten had he accepted the Royals' qualifying offer in the first place.
Santana slotted into the Braves staff and performed even better than expected. He struck out 179 batters, the second most of his career, and saw his HR/FB rate fall under 9% for the first time since 2008. He basically pitched as well as he had in 2008, his breakout season for the Angels. Except in a pitching saturated market, that season was a six WAR season while this year was slightly less than three WAR. His success with the Braves was despite a higher than normal BABIP of .319, which probably aided to a 1.31 when his other metrics looked much better.
One key change for Santana in 2014 was the usage of his change-up, a rarely used secondary offering before last year. He went to it 14% of the time, double what he did the two years before, and for the first time since his rookie year, he was a true three-pitch pitcher. That upped his ability to get swings and misses, especially on "pitcher's pitches" (Outside the Zone Swing% up & Outside the Zone Contact%, Contact%, and Pitches inside the Zone% down). That's a great development for a pitcher known entirely for his ability to be durable.
Last winter, Santana bet on himself. It was a dangerous position because certain factors were considerably working against him (qualifying offer, a 2012 abysmal season). But in the end, he gained nothing and lost nothing as he got the same total he would have settled for to begin with. It was a gamble and it paid off as he entered free agency this year coming off a pair of consecutive solid seasons that made his 2012 year look like simply a down season. The Braves, like the Royals last winter, extended a qualifying offer. This time, it had little affect as the Twins were immediately interested.
The Braves ultimately lost nothing, too. They surrendered the 26th overall pick last spring to sign Santana. The Red Sox used that pick to grab Georgia-native Michael Chavis, though the Braves may have still gone with Braxton Davidson, who they picked with the 32nd overall selection. Now, the Braves will gain a compensation draft choice in the 2015 draft to go with their first round pick.
In the end, the Ervin Santana signing worked out well for both sides. He was given the chance to pitch in a ballpark that is kind to flyball pitchers and pitch in a league that doesn't include the DH. The Braves were able to remain competitive until their offensive woes became too overwhelming. And we were also unintentionally given the gift of a hilarious hash tag. Everybody wins!
Monday, December 8, 2014
Born in Georgia? The Braves Would Like to Sign You
We heard - over and over - after the Braves signed outfielder Nick Markakis to a contract, it would represent a "homecoming" of sorts for Markakis. Though he wasn't born in Georgia, Markakis would relocate to the area with his family and attend both high school and college in the Peach State.
Recently, if Jon Heyman is to believed, the Braves have also been exploring another homecoming, this time with Georgia native Stephen Drew. Brother of J.D. Drew, who played with the Braves for one season and cost the Braves some guy we don't want to talk about, Stephen will be 32 when the season opens up and has played for a quartet of teams over the last three years after being the everyday guy at shortstop for the Diamondbacks to open up his career.
It's the kind of deal that concerns people like me. Going after players who have sentimental attachment either from their previous time in Atlanta (howyadoing David Ross) or geographic location rather than focusing on productive major league talent. Of particular concern in regards to Drew is even though he's hardly been productive over the the last four seasons, he has continued to take millions to the bank with the help of his super agent, Scott Boras.
As far as just performance goes, Drew struggled last year after sitting out the beginning of the year. He was counting on a long-term deal to cover his early 30's following a year with Boston where he OPS'd .777, but none moved from theoretical to tangible and he ended up returning to Boston a month-and-a-half after the season began. A number of reasons led to this, but most notably, Drew was one of those hurt the most by the new free agent compensation rules. While Ervin Santana also signed late, the value of an innings eating starter remains significant enough. The value of a middle infielder who isn't better than average in anything he does? Not high enough to warrant the cash and the market for him quickly soured as Drew didn't want to settle for whatever offers did come his way. Once he did sign with the Red Sox, he couldn't hit his weight and it's not like he's Ray King or anything. Eventually, the BoSox dumped him on the Yankees for Kelly Johnson and he received a lot of playing time at second base, but hit even worse.
That leaves Drew, who wouldn't settle for one-year contract offers a year ago, searching for the right situation for a one-year, make good contract where he can parlay a good season in 2015 into one final long-term deal. He won't be making eight figures again this season, though how much he would sign for is a mystery. We are conditioned to believe Boras can get whatever he wants, but even he isn't a miracle worker. Plus, in a shallow market for middle infielders depresses the available teams interested in Drew, possibly artificially lowering his price tag. He has been linked to the Mets, Yankees, and A's this offseason, though the Yankees might no longer be interested.
What would Atlanta get on, say, a 1 year $4M contract with incentives?
Well, over the last four seasons, Drew has slashed .228/.305/.382. Pretty miserable. That was coming off a three year run with Arizona where he OPS'd .800. Defensively, Drew was a solid enough shortstop, posting positive UZR's in all but one of the last six seasons. His low DRS and Fans Scouting Report, courtesy of Fangraphs, tells the story of a guy who will make the plays he can get to, but won't wow you in any way. The wonderful Inside Edge defensive stats continue that narrative. Drew played second with the Yankees after his trade last year and his numbers weren't pretty, but I'm inclined to chalk that up to short sample size and learning on the job. The numbers tell me he should be a fairly decent second baseman.
As a stopgap, he's not terrible. He's also not that good. He's in that category that includes the guy the Yankees gave up for him. Players like Drew, KJ, and Jed Lowrie are one year, hope for magic types, or essentially what the Braves were looking for last season with Aaron Harang. Sometimes, it works out perfectly. Sometimes, they're Rico Brogna.
If the Braves sign Drew on the cheap, they will likely get even bang for their buck with a chance to get a bargain if Drew posts another three-win season like he did in 2013. If there is a bidding war, they should cut their loses and try Lowrie. If they want to make my heart happy, go sign KJ. He just needs a chance, man.
Overall, what you get from Drew is simple. More "mehness." He won't win you much, he won't be a sore thumb, he'll just be there and probably doing an average job. You won't miss him when he's gone just like none of us are hoping the Braves sign him. He's just okay.
Recently, if Jon Heyman is to believed, the Braves have also been exploring another homecoming, this time with Georgia native Stephen Drew. Brother of J.D. Drew, who played with the Braves for one season and cost the Braves some guy we don't want to talk about, Stephen will be 32 when the season opens up and has played for a quartet of teams over the last three years after being the everyday guy at shortstop for the Diamondbacks to open up his career.
It's the kind of deal that concerns people like me. Going after players who have sentimental attachment either from their previous time in Atlanta (howyadoing David Ross) or geographic location rather than focusing on productive major league talent. Of particular concern in regards to Drew is even though he's hardly been productive over the the last four seasons, he has continued to take millions to the bank with the help of his super agent, Scott Boras.
As far as just performance goes, Drew struggled last year after sitting out the beginning of the year. He was counting on a long-term deal to cover his early 30's following a year with Boston where he OPS'd .777, but none moved from theoretical to tangible and he ended up returning to Boston a month-and-a-half after the season began. A number of reasons led to this, but most notably, Drew was one of those hurt the most by the new free agent compensation rules. While Ervin Santana also signed late, the value of an innings eating starter remains significant enough. The value of a middle infielder who isn't better than average in anything he does? Not high enough to warrant the cash and the market for him quickly soured as Drew didn't want to settle for whatever offers did come his way. Once he did sign with the Red Sox, he couldn't hit his weight and it's not like he's Ray King or anything. Eventually, the BoSox dumped him on the Yankees for Kelly Johnson and he received a lot of playing time at second base, but hit even worse.
That leaves Drew, who wouldn't settle for one-year contract offers a year ago, searching for the right situation for a one-year, make good contract where he can parlay a good season in 2015 into one final long-term deal. He won't be making eight figures again this season, though how much he would sign for is a mystery. We are conditioned to believe Boras can get whatever he wants, but even he isn't a miracle worker. Plus, in a shallow market for middle infielders depresses the available teams interested in Drew, possibly artificially lowering his price tag. He has been linked to the Mets, Yankees, and A's this offseason, though the Yankees might no longer be interested.
What would Atlanta get on, say, a 1 year $4M contract with incentives?
Well, over the last four seasons, Drew has slashed .228/.305/.382. Pretty miserable. That was coming off a three year run with Arizona where he OPS'd .800. Defensively, Drew was a solid enough shortstop, posting positive UZR's in all but one of the last six seasons. His low DRS and Fans Scouting Report, courtesy of Fangraphs, tells the story of a guy who will make the plays he can get to, but won't wow you in any way. The wonderful Inside Edge defensive stats continue that narrative. Drew played second with the Yankees after his trade last year and his numbers weren't pretty, but I'm inclined to chalk that up to short sample size and learning on the job. The numbers tell me he should be a fairly decent second baseman.
As a stopgap, he's not terrible. He's also not that good. He's in that category that includes the guy the Yankees gave up for him. Players like Drew, KJ, and Jed Lowrie are one year, hope for magic types, or essentially what the Braves were looking for last season with Aaron Harang. Sometimes, it works out perfectly. Sometimes, they're Rico Brogna.
If the Braves sign Drew on the cheap, they will likely get even bang for their buck with a chance to get a bargain if Drew posts another three-win season like he did in 2013. If there is a bidding war, they should cut their loses and try Lowrie. If they want to make my heart happy, go sign KJ. He just needs a chance, man.
Overall, what you get from Drew is simple. More "mehness." He won't win you much, he won't be a sore thumb, he'll just be there and probably doing an average job. You won't miss him when he's gone just like none of us are hoping the Braves sign him. He's just okay.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Does Jon Lester Make Sense for the Braves?
The news was a little surprising, especially given the timing of what else transpired this week. Jon Lester, the long-time Red Sox and brief Oakland Athletic, will meet, or depending on when you read this, have met with the Atlanta Braves this week about a possible contract.
Wait, but aren't we rebuilding?
Yeah, I thought so, too, but the Braves have been pretty open that the future is hardly set in stone. They could just as easily reload for 2015 or build for 2017. Signing a pitcher like Lester would appear to satisfy both of those needs, though it's questionable how realistic that is. The Braves have already invested $71.4M into eight players for 2015 with seven players still to deal with in arbitration, though at least three of them are likely to be non-tendered. Using arbitration estimates from MLBTR for the four I could see the Braves bringing back, plus minimum salaries for 10 more players, the Braves are looking at roughly $86-$88M invested out of the possible $110-$114M payroll. Is Lester even financially feasible? We'll get back to that.
Lester does make sense for the Braves and really any team who is seeking improvement, because the lefty is coming off his best season, isn't really that old (2015 will be his age-31 season), and has been remarkably durable (hasn't made fewer than 31 starts in any of his full seasons). Despite this, he won't even cost a team a first-round selection since he was traded in the final year of his contract and wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer. That would appear to be one reason the Braves would have more interest in Lester over the other big two starters on the market, Max Scherzer and James Shields. After all, it would be counter-productive for the new front office team to scream about the lack of minor league depth and lose another first rounder via a free agent signing.
Will the Braves be buying high on a talent that has largely been good, but rarely great? Between 2011-13, Lester ranked 16th in fWAR, but just 60th in FIP. This paints the picture of a durable workhorse not unlike last year's high priced addition, Ervin Santana. But last year, Lester upped his K% to a quarter of all batters, something he hasn't accomplished since 2010. His BB% fell under 7% for the first time in his career to 5.4%. This led to personal lows in WHIP, FIP, and barely missing his lowest xFIP of his career. Can something explain this fluctuation of numbers or did Lester just get it as a 30 year-old? Well, he did basically scrap his change-up, a pitch he used over 10% of the time in 2012-13, and relied much more on his cutter and curveball, which were both strikeout pitches in 2014. It would appear likely that change could be replicated. Lester wasn't lucky last year and so his future success remains rather attainable even if his numbers in his contract year vs. the previous three seasons do give you a momentary pause.
Lester also makes sense because it would immediately turn the Braves pitching staff into one that could compete for a division. The Braves were able to compete until the end last season with Aaron Harang doing his best Houdini impression. Imagine what it could do with Lester and Julio Teheran headlining a staff with the young and electric Alex Wood, new acquisition Shelby Miller, and x-factor Mike Minor.
Having said that, this is where I start looking at why I'm not keen on targeting Lester. Pitching wasn't the problem last season and signing Lester won't lead to a better on-base percentage, more homers, and more runs. Having Jason Heyward would have helped, but something happened there. This is not to say that the Braves shouldn't seek out the services of another pitcher (Justin Masterson has been rumored) because clearly, starting pitching depth is an issue.
So, that gets us back to the financial side. Does signing Lester make sense? Let's look at the contract Lester is expected to seek this winter. While all of this is guesswork, I think it's reasonable to assume Lester is in line to break the bank in the coming weeks. Obviously, Lester won't be touching Clayton Kershaw money (7 years, $215M). Looking at more comparable offers, last winter, Masahiro Tanaka got $175M over seven years and last spring, Scherzer rejected a six year, $144M deal. Between those offers is Zach Greinke's $147M over six years. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of six years and $160M is reasonable for the market. Obviously, if Scherzer gets closer to $190M, Lester gets closer to Tanaka's deal. $160M over six years is an average of $26.7M. Sticker shock yet?
But wait, there's more. Since that kind of money would basically take up all of the Braves financial wiggle room for 2015, the Braves would have no room for error and they are still seeking out bench help, a possible stop-gap at second, and would marry themselves to the idea of Evan Gattis in left. On the flipside, Atlanta might look to move a couple of players to save some more cash, but doing so would mean the Braves would have to replace that player so are you really saving much? And what of 2016 when Justin Upton is a free agent and Gattis, Miller, and Wood are hitting arbitration? Granted, Dan Uggla will also be off the books. And when the Braves open the new park in 2017, at least $60M would be devoted to three players. Let's not even get into the mess of backloading a contract of this size.
And then there is Lester's age. If the going rate on free agent pitchers at the top tier of their profession is at least five years and Lester will pitch all of 2015 as a 31 year-old, just how long are you committing money to him and what kind of pitcher will he be at the end of the trade? I realize that you take risks with any long-term deal, but that is a lot of years and money to take a chance on a guy who might be a #3 or #4 by the time the deal is entering its final year.
Like many things, there are both positives and negatives. Who wouldn't want a pitcher of Lester's caliber pairing with Teheran for the rest of the decade? But does it make sense? I'm just not sold on that idea. Beyond the fact that the Heyward deal essentially says we aren't ready to compete and ignoring that the offense has only gotten worse since the end of the regular season, are we really going to invest roughly a quarter of next year's budget to one player? A player who has rarely been great?
Fortunately, this seems like the kind of the thing the Braves simply don't do. Sure, they flirt with the idea, but they ultimately shy away and try to make smaller and smarter signings.
Lester does make sense for the Braves and really any team who is seeking improvement, because the lefty is coming off his best season, isn't really that old (2015 will be his age-31 season), and has been remarkably durable (hasn't made fewer than 31 starts in any of his full seasons). Despite this, he won't even cost a team a first-round selection since he was traded in the final year of his contract and wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer. That would appear to be one reason the Braves would have more interest in Lester over the other big two starters on the market, Max Scherzer and James Shields. After all, it would be counter-productive for the new front office team to scream about the lack of minor league depth and lose another first rounder via a free agent signing.
Will the Braves be buying high on a talent that has largely been good, but rarely great? Between 2011-13, Lester ranked 16th in fWAR, but just 60th in FIP. This paints the picture of a durable workhorse not unlike last year's high priced addition, Ervin Santana. But last year, Lester upped his K% to a quarter of all batters, something he hasn't accomplished since 2010. His BB% fell under 7% for the first time in his career to 5.4%. This led to personal lows in WHIP, FIP, and barely missing his lowest xFIP of his career. Can something explain this fluctuation of numbers or did Lester just get it as a 30 year-old? Well, he did basically scrap his change-up, a pitch he used over 10% of the time in 2012-13, and relied much more on his cutter and curveball, which were both strikeout pitches in 2014. It would appear likely that change could be replicated. Lester wasn't lucky last year and so his future success remains rather attainable even if his numbers in his contract year vs. the previous three seasons do give you a momentary pause.
Lester also makes sense because it would immediately turn the Braves pitching staff into one that could compete for a division. The Braves were able to compete until the end last season with Aaron Harang doing his best Houdini impression. Imagine what it could do with Lester and Julio Teheran headlining a staff with the young and electric Alex Wood, new acquisition Shelby Miller, and x-factor Mike Minor.
Having said that, this is where I start looking at why I'm not keen on targeting Lester. Pitching wasn't the problem last season and signing Lester won't lead to a better on-base percentage, more homers, and more runs. Having Jason Heyward would have helped, but something happened there. This is not to say that the Braves shouldn't seek out the services of another pitcher (Justin Masterson has been rumored) because clearly, starting pitching depth is an issue.
So, that gets us back to the financial side. Does signing Lester make sense? Let's look at the contract Lester is expected to seek this winter. While all of this is guesswork, I think it's reasonable to assume Lester is in line to break the bank in the coming weeks. Obviously, Lester won't be touching Clayton Kershaw money (7 years, $215M). Looking at more comparable offers, last winter, Masahiro Tanaka got $175M over seven years and last spring, Scherzer rejected a six year, $144M deal. Between those offers is Zach Greinke's $147M over six years. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of six years and $160M is reasonable for the market. Obviously, if Scherzer gets closer to $190M, Lester gets closer to Tanaka's deal. $160M over six years is an average of $26.7M. Sticker shock yet?
But wait, there's more. Since that kind of money would basically take up all of the Braves financial wiggle room for 2015, the Braves would have no room for error and they are still seeking out bench help, a possible stop-gap at second, and would marry themselves to the idea of Evan Gattis in left. On the flipside, Atlanta might look to move a couple of players to save some more cash, but doing so would mean the Braves would have to replace that player so are you really saving much? And what of 2016 when Justin Upton is a free agent and Gattis, Miller, and Wood are hitting arbitration? Granted, Dan Uggla will also be off the books. And when the Braves open the new park in 2017, at least $60M would be devoted to three players. Let's not even get into the mess of backloading a contract of this size.
And then there is Lester's age. If the going rate on free agent pitchers at the top tier of their profession is at least five years and Lester will pitch all of 2015 as a 31 year-old, just how long are you committing money to him and what kind of pitcher will he be at the end of the trade? I realize that you take risks with any long-term deal, but that is a lot of years and money to take a chance on a guy who might be a #3 or #4 by the time the deal is entering its final year.
Like many things, there are both positives and negatives. Who wouldn't want a pitcher of Lester's caliber pairing with Teheran for the rest of the decade? But does it make sense? I'm just not sold on that idea. Beyond the fact that the Heyward deal essentially says we aren't ready to compete and ignoring that the offense has only gotten worse since the end of the regular season, are we really going to invest roughly a quarter of next year's budget to one player? A player who has rarely been great?
Fortunately, this seems like the kind of the thing the Braves simply don't do. Sure, they flirt with the idea, but they ultimately shy away and try to make smaller and smarter signings.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Notes: Medlen, Gattis
I don't want to get too bogged down with current news while I still have two posts to write about where the Braves stand with the left side of the infield and the outfield, but I felt these little snip-its were important enough to discuss.
First, DOB reports the Braves are at least kicking the tires on bringing back Kris Medlen for 2015. DOB says "it's believed" that a return for Medlen is an option, albeit at a decreased rate than what is likely in arbitration. It is not specified why that is believed, but regardless, let's investigate this as a possibility. With Ervin Santana as good as gone, Aaron Harang unlikely to return, and the Gavin Floyd Experience likely coming to an end, the Braves have a lot of innings to replace and that's not getting into the questions surrounding Mike Minor. While Medlen will probably need time at the beginning of the year to finish his recuperation, sometime before June 2015, he likely would be ready to join the staff. Is that a choice the Braves should make?
It all comes down to money. I've been saying since last spring after the injuries occurred that if their rehabs were going well, you could give either Medlen or Brandon Beachy an offer that was heavy on incentives to come back. Basically, a two-year deal where they a suppressed salary with incentives in the first year. The second year could be both a vesting clause and a mutual option. How would this contract look like in pure numbers? Let's say $3.5M in 2015 with $500K increases for 100, 125, 150, and 175 innings along with $250K increases for finishing with votes for the Cy Young, MVP, for being on a postseason roster, and postseason awards. In the second year, if he pitches 175 innings, he books $9M right away. If not, his salary starts at $6M and can climb based on innings. If he pitches 100 innings in 2015, he could earn $6.5M. Another half-million for 125 and another half-million for 150. Or he could decline the contract and hit free agency. Or the Braves could decline his return.
Seems complicated? It has to be for the Braves to both cover their own asses and attract the player's attention. What is more likely is that the Braves will offer a "make-good" contract for one season. For Medlen, it would be his final year of arbitration. Beachy has another year to go. The Braves will still need another starter even if they go this route with one of their injured hurlers. Their rotation depth is not where it needs to be.
----
Elsewhere, Joel Sherman tweets that the Braves are pushing Evan Gattis hard. First, oh my. Second, no team is ever pushing a good MLB player hard. They might let you know he's available, but the Braves wouldn't be pushing Gattis hard like they would with B.J. Upton. Third, we were already aware of this.
The Braves have precious little that will excite other teams for a trade that Atlanta is willing to get rid of. Gattis, though, fits the bill. He's cheap, has a big bat, and can even catch. For an American League team, that sets up for an intriguing situation, especially when they can DH Gattis at least half of the time.
There are two ways of going about this. One, use Gattis to improve a weakness. Some have speculated that a Gattis for Jeremy Hellickson trade (with other pieces likely) makes sense. After all, the Braves need starting pitching depth. However, this deal swings heavily in the Rays favor so another player (or even two) needs to be added. Hellickson is a back-of-the-rotation guy whose ERAs in 2011-12 masked how mediocre he is. Is there value for 170-180 innings of 4.30 FIP? Some. Not a lot, though, especially when the guy is arbitration-eligible.
Remember I said there are two ways? The other way is to package Gattis with a bad contract, like the aforementioned Upton or Chris Johnson, for what is almost certainly going to be the kind of deal you come away from saying "well, at least we don't have that guy anymore." This would be a sad way to lose a marketable piece like Gattis, but long-term, it would open up money for the Braves to use. Of course, that last part depends on how much the Braves will still have to cover.
Overall, I think Gattis is being shopped around and has a good shot of being traded. Sure, the Braves will have to replace his production, but you trade from strengths and right now, catcher is one of those for the Braves. It'll be interesting to see just how much they can get for an older player going into his third-year.
First, DOB reports the Braves are at least kicking the tires on bringing back Kris Medlen for 2015. DOB says "it's believed" that a return for Medlen is an option, albeit at a decreased rate than what is likely in arbitration. It is not specified why that is believed, but regardless, let's investigate this as a possibility. With Ervin Santana as good as gone, Aaron Harang unlikely to return, and the Gavin Floyd Experience likely coming to an end, the Braves have a lot of innings to replace and that's not getting into the questions surrounding Mike Minor. While Medlen will probably need time at the beginning of the year to finish his recuperation, sometime before June 2015, he likely would be ready to join the staff. Is that a choice the Braves should make?
It all comes down to money. I've been saying since last spring after the injuries occurred that if their rehabs were going well, you could give either Medlen or Brandon Beachy an offer that was heavy on incentives to come back. Basically, a two-year deal where they a suppressed salary with incentives in the first year. The second year could be both a vesting clause and a mutual option. How would this contract look like in pure numbers? Let's say $3.5M in 2015 with $500K increases for 100, 125, 150, and 175 innings along with $250K increases for finishing with votes for the Cy Young, MVP, for being on a postseason roster, and postseason awards. In the second year, if he pitches 175 innings, he books $9M right away. If not, his salary starts at $6M and can climb based on innings. If he pitches 100 innings in 2015, he could earn $6.5M. Another half-million for 125 and another half-million for 150. Or he could decline the contract and hit free agency. Or the Braves could decline his return.
Seems complicated? It has to be for the Braves to both cover their own asses and attract the player's attention. What is more likely is that the Braves will offer a "make-good" contract for one season. For Medlen, it would be his final year of arbitration. Beachy has another year to go. The Braves will still need another starter even if they go this route with one of their injured hurlers. Their rotation depth is not where it needs to be.
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Elsewhere, Joel Sherman tweets that the Braves are pushing Evan Gattis hard. First, oh my. Second, no team is ever pushing a good MLB player hard. They might let you know he's available, but the Braves wouldn't be pushing Gattis hard like they would with B.J. Upton. Third, we were already aware of this.
The Braves have precious little that will excite other teams for a trade that Atlanta is willing to get rid of. Gattis, though, fits the bill. He's cheap, has a big bat, and can even catch. For an American League team, that sets up for an intriguing situation, especially when they can DH Gattis at least half of the time.
There are two ways of going about this. One, use Gattis to improve a weakness. Some have speculated that a Gattis for Jeremy Hellickson trade (with other pieces likely) makes sense. After all, the Braves need starting pitching depth. However, this deal swings heavily in the Rays favor so another player (or even two) needs to be added. Hellickson is a back-of-the-rotation guy whose ERAs in 2011-12 masked how mediocre he is. Is there value for 170-180 innings of 4.30 FIP? Some. Not a lot, though, especially when the guy is arbitration-eligible.
Remember I said there are two ways? The other way is to package Gattis with a bad contract, like the aforementioned Upton or Chris Johnson, for what is almost certainly going to be the kind of deal you come away from saying "well, at least we don't have that guy anymore." This would be a sad way to lose a marketable piece like Gattis, but long-term, it would open up money for the Braves to use. Of course, that last part depends on how much the Braves will still have to cover.
Overall, I think Gattis is being shopped around and has a good shot of being traded. Sure, the Braves will have to replace his production, but you trade from strengths and right now, catcher is one of those for the Braves. It'll be interesting to see just how much they can get for an older player going into his third-year.
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