How are the guys the Braves got rid of are doing?

Since the end of the 2016 season, the Braves have finalized nine trades while losing a few players via waivers. With roughly half of the season already finished, I wanted to look back at the players the team gave up and how they are doing in their new surroundings. Do the Braves miss them or do they miss the Braves more?

November 2, 2016
Ryan Weber selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Before the 2016 World Series ended later that night, the Braves lost a right-hander who had made 21 appearances and seven starts with them over the previous two seasons. Weber was always a non-prospect - a guy with AAAA stuff and more guts than talent. He opened this year with 31.2 dominant frames in Triple-A for Tacoma before earning a callup. He was doing alright (3 H, 1 ER) through 3.2 innings, but left the game with a biceps injury. Actually, to be more specific, a "stretch of the musculocutaneous nerve." That sounds painful. He's been sidelined for a month-and-a-half and I have yet to see word on a return.

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November 28, 2016
Traded Max Povse and Robert Whalen to the Seattle Mariners. Received a player to be named later and Alex Jackson (minors). The Seattle Mariners sent Tyler Pike (minors) (December 9, 2016) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.

-The Mariners are a common theme in this little update. Povse returned to Double-A to begin this season after eleven solid starts in the Southern League. He was less impressive in the Texas League, though, and his walks were "sky-high" relative to his usual pinpoint location. After 39 innings (he missed nearly a month on the DL), Povse was brought to the majors two weeks ago. His first outing out of the pen was horrid, but he threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Angels. Meanwhile, Whalen, who made five starts with the big league club last year, has been a bag of awful this season. In 48.1 innings in the hard-hitting PCL, he has a 6.33 ERA. In five of his nine starts, he's given up at least four earned runs. Mixed in there are two spot appearances in the majors, including a start. He was dinged up for five runs in a late May loss to the Red Sox and went two scoreless innings in mid-June out of the pen against the Rangers. He's back in Triple-A and will look to end a streak of five consecutive starts with allowing at least one homerun the next time out.

December 1, 2016
Traded Luke Dykstra (minors), Chris Ellis (minors) and John Gant to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Jaime Garcia.

-Some bemoaned the loss of Dykstra despite the fact that Dykstra found a way to hit over .300 last year in more than 340 PA with a sub-.700 OPS and less than ten steals. I mention all of that because since 1901, only five people were able to do that in the majors and the last time it happened was 1943 with Doc Cramer. This season, Dykstra has been terrible for Palm Beach in the Florida State League, playing against many of his former teammates on the Fire Frogs. Ellis, who spent only one year in the organization after coming over with Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade, has been woeful as well while splitting time between Memphis and Springfield. His ERA is only under 7.00 because his work at Springfield is less-awful. John Gant opened the year on the DL and has only made eight appearances on the year. In seven starts in Memphis, he's been pretty decent. Not great, but compared to the other guys the Cardinals got for Garcia, Gant's been amazing. He's also appeared once out of the bullpen for the Cardinals. he gave up two solo homers in 3.1 ING.

December 8, 2016
Traded Brady Feigl (minors) and Tyrell Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Received Luke Jackson.

-A Spring Training arm that nearly made the team in 2015 before needing Tommy John surgery, Feigl made six appearances last year in the rookie leagues as part of his rehab. This season, he has pitched 22 times - mostly in the Carolina League - with mixed success. The strikeout numbers are solid and the control is magnificent, but when he's not missing bats, players are finding holes. He's also been miserable once promoted to Frisco to begin June. Jenkins didn't last long in the Rangers' system. A few weeks later, they lost him on waivers to the Reds and he spent about as much time in their system before the Padres got him off waivers. One of last year's fan favorites has been just bad with El Paso in the PCL. He gave up 14 homers last year between Triple-A and the majors. He's surrendered 16 already this year in just as many starts. His strikeout-to-walk rate is nearly 1.

January 11, 2017
Traded Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith to the Seattle Mariners. Received Thomas Burrows (minors) and Luiz Gohara (minors).

-Losing Simmons made me sad as I had been a quick fan of his in 2014. He made it back to the majors for seven games last year and was a potential x-factor for this year's bullpen before the trade. However, the prospect of acquiring Gohara was too great. Unfortunately, Simmons has been DL'd the whole season with a right flexor strain. The last I heard, he was throwing again, but has yet to start a rehab assignment and likely won't be in the mix until late July at the earliest. Smith spent a few hours in the Mariners' system before being packaged in a deal for Tampa's Drew Smyly. He's spent much of the year in the minors or on the DL, but when he's been in the majors, Smith has been pretty successful. With Kevin Kiermaier out for much of the foreseeable future, center field belongs to Smith, who's OBP is roughly 70 points higher than it was last year with the Braves. His stolen base percentage continues to need work (9-of-13), but he's been a nice fit in Tampa and one of the few ex-Braves on this list to look better than he did with the Braves.

January 13, 2017
Traded player to be named or cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Micah Johnson.

-The real winner of this deal was the Braves' fans who now know who Johnson is and follow him on Twitter.

January 26, 2017
Tuffy Gosewisch selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Jesus, the Mariners love ex-Braves - even those that never suit up for Atlanta. Earlier in the offseason, Gosewisch had been picked up off waivers from the D'Backs to compete with Anthony Recker. That didn't happen as the Braves signed Kurt Suzuki and DFA'd Gosewisch. He's been around his career norms in 41 games in Triple-A for the Mariners. He also spent a few weeks in the majors where he went just 2-for-28 with 14 K's. Ouchie.

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February 12, 2017
Traded Carlos Portuondo (minors) and Andrew McKirahan to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Brandon Phillips.

-Not included here was the $13M the Reds sent to pay for Phillips contract, leaving the Braves on the hook for just a million bucks. McKirahan was a former Rule 5 pick who spent too much of his rookie season on the inactive list after being suspended for PED. He then spent 2016 on the mend after a second Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this season and has spent some of his time on Twitter railing against vaccines. As for Portuondo, a Cuban-born right-hander, he pitched once and was released. Man, the Reds really wanted to get rid of Brandon Phillips.

March 6, 2017
Christian Walker selected by the Cincinnati Reds off waivers.

-The Braves were the second-of-four teams to get a look at Walker this spring. He started with the Orioles, the team that drafted him and originally promoted him to the majors in both 2014 and 2015. In late February, the Braves claimed him only to lose him two weeks later to the Reds. In late March, he was again on the move - this time to the Diamondbacks. He's bashed the PCL since with a slugging percentage well over .550. He's played mostly first, though he made a cameo at third and also logged a bit of time in left field. Because of how bad the Braves' bench has been - especially early - this one kind of hurts.

April 24, 2017
Traded David Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received player to be named or cash.

-You don't want to read about this. David Hernandez has been excellent for the Angels. Absolutely filthy. He's picked up over a K an inning, walked nearly nobody, and his FIP is absurdly in the 1.50-range. He's not this good, but he's definitely pitching like he is and the Braves are wondering why they just didn't bring him to the majors after all.

April 27, 2017
Chase d'Arnaud selected by the Boston Red Sox off waivers.

-There were people who were upset about this. I like to call these people the ones who are easily convinced by a month of success. D'Arnaud looked good briefly last year, but ended with a .245/.317/.335 split. His biggest value came from being able to play multiple positions and swipe a few bases. The Braves already had Emilio Bonifacio for that! (Too soon?) Cutting d'Arnaud, in late April, the utility player landed in Boston. After a month in their organization, he was waived and went to the Padres. He's been straight up awful with the bat and has played a little too often at shortstop, but when you're the Padres and you have Erick Aybar, that's to be expected.

May 8, 2017
Traded Kevin Chapman and cash to the Minnesota Twins. Received Danny Santana.

-Santana has had a few hits here-and-there but he's basically been the same guy who disappointed with the Twins last year. Meanwhile, Chapman, who the Braves added on waivers near the end of spring training, spent about a month in the Twins' organization for their International League club in Rochester. He gave up seven earned runs in 11.1 ING, which was actually an improvement over his time with Gwinnett. He was released a little more than a month after the trade.

May 20, 2017
Purchased Enrique Burgos from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Traded Juan Yepez (minors) to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Matt Adams and cash.

-Burgos has been lights-out with Gwinnett and Adams hasn't been so bad either, but this article is about the players who the Braves gave up. Yepez hit .275/.309/.387 with a homer over 36 games with Rome before the trade. He left the SALLY League and landed in the Midwest League with Peoria. The two leagues are nearly identical in offensive production and while Dozer Park is a bit more homer-friendly than State Mutual Stadium, it's not exactly a big homerun park. Still, Yepez has bashed five homers since the trade, one fewer than he hit during 121 games in the Braves' organization. That said, he's still struggled to the tune of a .298 OBP.

Overall, outside of Mallex Smith - who doesn't have a place in Atlanta - and David Hernandez (sniff), the Braves haven't seen much success this season by the players they traded or waived. Some of that is luck, but a good deal of it is talent evaluation and coaching - something the Braves excel with at the minor league level.

Braves Get Tyler Pike from Mariners

November's trade of Robert Whalen and Max Povse to the Mariners for Alex Jackson and a player to be named later is now complete. Left-hander Tyler Pike will be headed to the Braves. Presumably, the two teams had worked out a list of players the Braves would take, but Atlanta wanted to wait until the Rule 5 Draft was completed so that they wouldn't have to concern themselves with protecting the player they wanted.

Pike, who was once committed to Florida State, was a third round selection of the 2012 draft and the 126th overall selection of that draft. He showed promise through his first two seasons, but then reached the California League and things went away from him. And now, let's talk about the Seattle Mariners development team.

As a high school left-hander, Pike began his career in 2012 in the Arizona Summer League. That's pretty typical and while Pike certainly looked good (57 K's in 50.2 innings while allowing one homerun), the common path of a high school draftee is an assignment with the Advanced-Rookie League squad. Seattle, unlike the Braves, could have also waited until the Short Season Northwest League began its season and started Pike's second season there. Instead, they pushed Pike to A-ball Clinton of the Midwest League. This is not abnormal for the Mariners, either. They did the same thing with Taijuan Walker (and even moved him to Double-A the next year) after picking Walker out of Yucaipa High School in California.

It should be noted that both Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka, who signed rather than attend college after being selected in the first round of the 2015 draft, also moved up to A-ball the next year (though Allard did make five starts in High-Rookie ball). Nevertheless, Pike was still very young (about three years younger than the average) for the Midwest League. Like Allard and Soroka, Pike looked like he earned the promotion, but what happened next is why I bring this up.

When things came off the rails in 2014, he was again three years younger than the competition for the California League. Known as one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in baseball, the California League is not for the faint of heart. Pike would get bashed around and his psyche seemed cracked. In 61.1 innings, he gave up ten homers, walked 46 batters, hit seven more, and uncorked six wild pitches. He had an ERA of 5.72 in mid-June when the Mariners thought a change of scenery was needed. Rather than move Pike back down to the Midwest League to find his bearings, they promoted him to Jackson of the Double-A Southern League and his already putrid stats got a good deal worse. On the year, he had a 6.44 ERA between the two stops.

Most organizations would have started Pike back in A-ball in 2015, but not the Mariners. They started him in Jackson. He lasted eleven innings before being sent back to the California League. For 50 starts since then, he has started to find himself as his age came closer to matching his competition. Pike would also find better command over his curveball and the 12-to-6 pitch has plus-plus capability.

Pike is still an unfinished project. While he has improved his command, he still walked nearly five batters per nine innings last year. On the plus side, he struck out a new personal best 134 batters for a rate of 9.6 per nine. Pike won't induce too many grounders and has given up his fair share of homers, though the California League will do that to ya. His delivery looks fluid enough, though I'd like to see the Braves cut it down some as it includes a bit too much movement (over-the-head, high leg kick). It does provide some deception, but at a cost.

I talked about his curveball as it truly is the difference in helping him stay as a starter. When he is able to control and drop it below the knees as it reaches the plate, it has out pitch ability. Pike's velocity won't light up the radar guns (low 90's), but his command on the fastball will be key in getting him to the majors. He also has a pretty good changeup, though like his other pitches, improved command would go a long way to helping him.

Pike will turn 23 near the end of January and the southpaw will be given a third shot to solve the Southern League. This time, however, he's earned it and is age appropriate. He could easily be a sleeper that turns into a Top 10 prospect by season's end or get moved to the bullpen. Much like many prospects the Braves have picked up this offseason, Pike represents a low floor, high ceiling guy. His stats are not much to write home about, but if Atlanta straightens him out, they turned two decent arms into a big one (plus whatever happens with Jackson). That's how you build impact talent.

Best #63 in Braves Franchise History

(Series Note: Baseball-Reference was used for a collection of players so this series is as complete as their database is. No coaches/managers were included and a number had to have at least four options to be considered with two exceptions. I started from the highest available number because as I approach #1, I'll have much tougher decisions.)

Best #63 in Franchise History

Boy, this series gets an amazing start to it. Five options to choose from - each have wore the number since 2007. Three of the five also wore a different number while playing for the Braves. In addition, though not the same exact group as the last sentence, three players were later used in trades.

That last detail is how I arrived at this decision. What trade could ultimately pay the biggest dividends. Well, we do know that Charlie Morton (2008) was traded in the Nate McLouth and that trade has already been graded (Spoiler Alert: Bust). Robert Whalen (2016) was recently dealt to the Mariners in the Alex Jackson deal so we will know more about how that ends up later.

Before I pick, the other two options are Corky Miller (2007) and Jake Brigham (2015). Just didn't want to forget to provide that level of analysis.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

My choice for the Top #63 will be...Lucas Harrell. He wore the number in 2016 before Whalen later was assigned the number after arriving in the majors.

Oh, sure, Harrell only played five games with the Braves and yeah, those five games are easy to forget about. They included quality starts against the Marlins, a game in Wrigley, and his final start as a Brave - six scoreless innings in Minnesota where he stymied a bad Twins club. The other two starts weren't much to write home about as the Rockies bashed him around in Turner Field while the Reds got to him pretty good at home.

But Harrell is my choice for the Top #63 because of what was completed on July 27, 2016. It was on that day the Atlanta Braves announced that they had dealt Harrell, along with Dario Alvarez, to the Texas Rangers for second baseman Travis Demeritte.

What happens next is largely up to Demeritte. The Rangers selected Demeritte with the 30th overall pick of the 2013 draft and one pick ahead of the Braves, who selected right-hander Jason Hursh. He had a big showing in 2013 in the Arizona Summer League by hitting four homers and OPSing .856, but subsequent efforts were less exciting.

In 2016, however, Demeritte showed that he may be realizing his potential. Now, to be fair, he was playing in a league and park that inflates offensive numbers. With that said, Demeritte was hitting .272/.352/.583 at the time of this deal with 25 HR. That comes out to a nice and round .400 wOBA. He struck out a ton (33%) but also showed enough discipline to walk in nearly 11% of his PA.

After the trade, Demeritte's numbers fell some, but in 35 games with Carolina, the 21 year-old still carried an adjusted wOBA of .389. That represented a drop of just eleven points despite playing in a league that averaged a run fewer per game than the California League. After the season, he was a star in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .261/.333/.522 over 105 PA with 4 HR. He struck out significantly less than he did in the regular season (a difference of about 9%). By the end of the season, in a pretty awesome farm system, Demeritte is a solid Top 10 prospect.

Again, pickings are slim this high in the available numbers. Lucas Harrell was barely a Brave, but his trade could pay off in a big way if Demeritte continues to excel.

Braves Continue to Deal & Pick Up Lefty Jaime Garcia

By: Keith Allison via Flickr (CC BY-SA 4.0)

The last two years: Did you hear? The Braves acquired another pitching prospect! And another. They acquired Bronson Arroyo just to get yet another pitching prospect! They drafted a billion pitchers!

The last two trades: And this is why they did. Create a strength and trade from it. Over the last week, the Braves have packaged four pitchers (and a position prospect) as they acquired an established veteran starter that (probably) is better right now than Matt Wisler or Aaron Blair. They also acquired a lottery ticket in Alex Jackson and a player to be named later. Oh, and despite trading five starting pitchers, they still have at least ten pitching prospects that are incredibly desired by the rest of the league. And that...is why they acquired all that pitching over the last couple of years.

Yes, on Thursday night, the Braves sent a trio of prospects to the St. Louis Cardinals for left-hander Jaime Garcia. So, let's dive right into all that.

Garcia is a veteran of eight major league seasons and 158 games, all with the Cardinals. He's a bit of a lottery ticket in his own right because he's been very good (2.97 FIP/3.39 xFIP in 20 starts back in 2012) and a bit of a mystery (4.49 FIP/3.77 xFIP last year). Overall, he's been worth 13.5 fWAR during his career, which is about an average of 2.5 fWAR per 30 games. Part of the reason I did that average is that Garcia went through a four-year stretch beginning with that awesome 2012 where he struggled to stay on the mound. Last year was just the third time since establishing himself in the majors in 2010 that he's reached 150 innings.

So, what can we expect from Garcia? Well, a lot of grounders. During this decade, among pitchers with at least 500 innings, Garcia's 56.4% groundball rate ranks ninth. But Garcia is not some junkballer getting grounders and backing up third base for the throw. Garcia has a 3.50 FIP since 2010. That ranks 31st and better than Alex Cobb, Sonny Gray, and Garrett Richards.

Of course, it's a what-have-you-done-lately league and Garcia wasn't nearly as notable last year. Will that continue?

On the bright side, he's unlikely to get burned by a 20.2% HR/FB rate again. The HR/FB stat goes back to 2002 and no pitcher had ever reached 20% before. Odalis Perez was the closest when 19.7% of his flyballs turned into homers for the Dodgers back in 2003. And while groundball pitchers typically carry higher HR/FB rates, you have to imagine Garcia's HR/FB rate will resemble his career 11.5% norm rather than that absurdity in 2017.

I mentioned before the disparity between his FIP (4.49) and his xFIP (3.77). This is because his xFIP normalizes the homerun rate. While certainly you can argue that Garcia wasn't as effective last year as he has been during his career and that is a valid argument, some of that looks very flukish and the Braves are wise to believe that a bounce-back year is likely.

As you might expect from a groundball pitcher, Garcia relies heavily on his sinker, though a 33% usage rate isn't overly dramatic. Both his sinker and four-seamer, which he uses nearly as much, average about 91 mph and that is pretty much the norm since 2014. He follows that up with an 82-83 mph changeup and 81-82 mph slider. The changeup is a weapon against righties and he'll rarely use it against a left-handed hitter. Three or five times a game, he'll showcase a curveball, which is delivered in the mid-70's.

Garcia is around the zone at about an average rate, which is okay because his control allows him to pitch outside the strikzone effectly. In fact, he carries about a 5% below average outside-the-strikezone contact percentage, but a 2% above-average swing rate which means...whiffs.

You may have heard that Garcia is a free agent after 2017, something he shares in common with new teammates Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey. This is an ideal situation for the Braves. If they somehow don't compete, they have three short-term, trade-able assets. If they do compete, great, but they won't block their youngsters from playing important roles for them beyond 2017. Garcia is probably, due to his age, the most likely of the trio to stick around after this season, though it's too early to gauge what chances he has to stay. For now, he provides depth.

And that depth may not be as the presumable fourth or fifth starter for the current collection of talent. Adding Garcia ahead of the winter meetings means that the Atlanta Braves - right now - have a full rotation with the three newbies plus holdovers Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz. While all five make for a fairly good rotation and the depth at the minors is second-to-none, Atlanta now also has the option to use Teheran or Foltynewicz in a trade to upgrade. As we already know, the Braves have flirted with the idea of going after Chris Sale or Chris Archer. They both have the depth in the majors to withstand such an investment and the prospect depth to make a deal happen. Alternatively, they could also try to go in a different direction and try to offer Teheran as a lower cost option. Doing so could provide the Braves with ammo to possibly address weaknesses at catcher, third base, or in the outfield.

Either way, the deal for Garcia is a win provided he pitches like his normal self and has a bit more luck. Even if Garcia isn't quite the pitcher he once was, this deal is unlikely to keep John Coppolella and John Hart up at night because the cost was fairly minimal.

John Gant is a fine pitcher to fill out a pitching staff. His delivery and guile will get him far in baseball, but like Robert Whalen, the pitcher he was acquired with in 2015 (and subsequently dealt a few days ago), Gant had a low ceiling. Righty Chris Ellis has good size and excelled last season with Mississippi before struggling in Triple-A. He continues to deal with control issues and was rated much lower than Sean Newcomb, who he was acquired with last offseason. Finally, there was second baseman Luke Dykstra. Short of him becoming David Eckstein for the Cardinals - which is probably going to happen - Dykstra was a another low-ceiling, nice filler guy. He could presumably make a decent enough platoon option at second base, but he's an empty batting average guy without power or speed.

Much like the deal for Alex Jackson, the Braves packaged low ceiling assets for a piece they believe makes them a better team. While Jackson is a dream for the future, Garcia is a reality for right now. The Braves are better with Garcia than without him as pitchers like Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair haven't shown that they are better options. Further, the Braves potentially benefit in two ways from Garcia being on a one-year deal more so than they might with Colon and Dickey. Those two might each be calling it quits after 2017 whereas Garcia is trying to stand out in a tough free agent market as he tries to secure one final long-term deal. Contract years sometimes bring the best out of players. Secondly, by avoiding the long-term commitment, the option remains open to go to Wisler, Blair, Newcomb, or any number of great pitching prospects the Braves have.

Some will question why a team that has valued young pitching so much is now dealing it for a pitcher that turns 32 years-old next July. They will wonder why the Braves, after two years of rebuilding, are now sending prospects to other teams for short-term assets.

It's simple. You build a strength. You trade from that strength. You better your club. Garcia makes the Braves better right now and after those two years of rebuilding, I think it's about time we start to gaze at the right now a bit more than the distant future. Oh, it still looks bright, but the right now isn't looking so gloomy either.

Braves Continue to Shoot for the Stars

On the first day of the 2015 calendar year, the Atlanta Braves packaged a pair of useful arms in David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to acquire Manny Banuelos. A little more than a week later, the Braves sent pitcher Nate Hyatt and third baseman Kyle Kubitza to the Angels. Both players who could have potentially helped a bad Braves team in 2015, but the Braves wanted young left-hander Ricardo Sanchez.

Both trades - and there were others - were a sign that the Braves were willing to cash in high-floor guys for higher-ceiling, but riskier options. Yesterday, the Braves went to the well once more and packaged Robert Whalen and Max Povse for Alex Jackson, formerly of the Mariners' organization. A player to be named later will eventually also be sent from the Mariners. (Ed.: On 12/9/16, Tyler Pike was announced as the player to be named later. For more on him, click here.)

A right-handed outfielder, Jackson was the sixth overall selection of the 2014 draft. That alone makes this a bit of a surprise because the M's were so willing to cash him in. The young man turns 21 on Christmas and just finished a 92-game run with Clinton in the Midwest League (A-ball). While a catcher when he was at the prep level, Jackson has settled into right field since going pro. There are some who believe the Braves may try him again at catcher, but I tend to believe that with his offensive issues (I'll get to that), Atlanta won't try to add on with a move back behind the plate.

When the Braves picked Braxton Davidson 26 picks after Jackson in 2014, people graded Davidson's raw power potential as elite in that year's draft. It's worth remembering that Jackson was right there with him. Entering the draft, Baseball America named him the top position player available. In 135 games in high school, he crushed the opposition for a .375 batting average and 47 homeruns. He was on his way to the University of Oregon to pay baseball, but $4.2 million has a way to change people's minds.

To this point, we have seen a little of that raw power so many raved about (21 HR, .166 ISO), but too many strikeouts (223 in 793 PA). The Braves hope the switch to Atlanta's system will allow Jackson to start over. His swing has been tinkered with and needs even more work. It almost looks like he's fighting himself to get the barrel through the zone. He does show a decent eye at the plate (8.9 BB%) and had a .346 wOBA while playing in a hard park to hit homers as a right-handed batter (89 HR park factor over 3 years). According to Statcorner, his adjusted wOBA was 109, which means when you take into account league and park factors, his production was actually 9% above the average.

And remember...we are talking about a guy who had a bad year. And he did, but beyond the potential, there is some signs here that Jackson could be on the rise. Yes, his swing needs more work, but his line drive rate was up about 6% last year. His strikeout looking rate fell nearly 1%. He hit about 3% less pop-ups. By themselves, these stats tell us little, but taken collectively, they could - and I have to stress could - be a sign that he's "getting it" more than he did in 2015 and responding better to coaching.

But even if Jackson is a lottery ticket that doesn't become a winner, the Braves traded from a strength and didn't unload any top prospects. Max Povse is a personal favorite of mine because he's a freak of nature on the mound. He's a 6'8" behemoth who gets great sinking action with his low 90's fastball. It's tough to even locate the ball when he pitches because all you see is a mess of legs and arms come flying your direction as he cocks and delivers the ball. With his control and groundball tendencies, Povse would have also been a favorite of Roger McDowell, who stressed both.

Also headed to the Mariners is Robert Whalen, who I would classify as a maximizer in that he maximizes everything he has to try to get batters out. He's smart and not just because he's smart enough to realize he can't get by on a plus pitch or absurd stuff. Another groundball guy, Whalen throws a lot of pitches (a half-dozen of them) and knows when and how to use them.

That's a lot of praise for both pitchers and they deserve it. Both could help the Mariners in 2017. Here's the but, though. While both pitchers are prospects deserving of a look, neither rank highly both in terms of their respective placement among top pitching prospects in the system or rank highly in general compared to their minor league peers. To put it more bluntly, if all three reached their best case scenarios, the Braves traded a pair of 2 WAR pitchers for a batter capable of 4.5 WAR and then some. That's not to say any of the previous sentence happens and quite frankly, the better money is on Povse or Whalen posting 2 WAR versus Jackson posting All-Star worthy money.

But...there's a chance it could happen. The Braves followed the safe philosophy under Frank Wren where they valued high floors and depth over lottery tickets. John Coppolella and John Hart have proven that while depth is important, you gotta buy that lottery ticket every now and then. Sure, most will provide no return for your investment, but eventually, there's going to be a win and that, my friends, will be a game changer for this franchise.

2016 Player Reviews: Vizcaino, Whalen, Winkler, Wisler, Withrow

I started this series on October 3 and it has finally reached its conclusion. Welcome to the final edition of 2016 Player Reviews, brought to you by stubbornness and procrastination. I was going to do two more posts, but remembered that the Braves did me a solid by dropping Ryan Weber so I only had five players left to review and decided to supersize things so I can move on to other pressing concerns. Thanks to everyone for reading and sharing on social media along the way.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tell of two seasons for Vizzy. After taking over as the full-time closer following a brief time-share with Jason Grilli, Vizcaino was absolutely lights-out through 34 games. In 32.2 innings, he struck out 45 compared to 15 walks. While the Braves rarely needed a prototypical closer in the first half, Vizzy nailed down ten saves along the way. But, over his next five games, he surrendered eight runs (five earned) and walked five compared to just two strikeouts. He hit the DL with an oblique strain after being used in a blowout against the Rockies in which his heater averaged a season-low 91.7 mph. A month later, he returned, but was ineffective over four games before being placed back on the DL with shoulder inflammation. The Braves had hoped he would return in September, but he never made it back.

2017 Projection: The expectation is that Vizcaino will be good-to-go by spring training after taking the winter off. If Vizzy comes back ready to fly, it'll be interesting to see what version of Vizzy we receive. Obviously, the injuries were an issue, but his groundball rate shot up 19% last year from where it was in 2015. Was it better control that made his fastball induce a higher frequency of grounders? Was it the Roger McDowell-effect? It'll be something to watch in 2017 provided Vizcaino returns to form and, if he does, the Braves will have yet another weapon in a pen that is shaping up to be a strength for the Atlanta Braves.

Robert Whalen, RHP, 23 years-old

2016 Review: It was a bit surprising to see Whalen ascend to the big leagues in 2016. It's not that he wasn't a prospect, but he carried just a fringy prospect grade in a system filled with higher-end prospects and when 2016 began, Whalen had yet to throw a pitch above A-ball. The Braves were able to uncover some strikeout potential that he hadn't shown since rookie ball in 2013 and Whalen K'd 22.2% of Southern League batters that he faced over 18 starts. He also carried a 3.19 FIP while doing it. He received a promotion to Gwinnett, where he looked brilliant over a trio of starts. In August, he joined the big league club. He had a pair of quality starts mixed in, but also looked a good deal like a rookie pitcher. His season came to a close on August 25 with shoulder fatigue. He had thrown a total of 144.2 innings - nearly 50 innings more than the previous season when he tossed a career-best 96.2 innings. It should also be noted that Whalen had offseason surgery on both of his knees last winter, which allowed him to pitch without pain for the first time in a few years.

2017 Projection: Whalen won't stand out compared to some of the other prospects the Braves throw at you. He has below-average velocity and works off his four-seamer while utilizing his slider against lefties and his sinker versus righties. He also has a change-up and curveball. Whalen definitely punched his ticket for an extended look this spring and might have some value as a long reliever who can be tough on righties with a sinker that is both difficult to connect on and elevate when you do. However, I see him heading back to a very deep Gwinnett pitching staff where he can try to show the Braves (and potential suitors) that his success in 2016 was a sign of bigger and better things to come for the former Mets farmhand.

Daniel Winkler, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: In a first half of low points for the Braves, few were more depressing than what happened on an April afternoon when Winkler, on a 1-2 count, fractured his elbow on a pitch to the Cardinals' Randal Grichuk. Winkler, who had missed most of 2015 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, had been an early season bright spot for the Braves. He had allowed just one of the eight batters he had faced to reach and that came on a walk. He also had four K's and was throwing his 92 mph fastball, 88 mph cutter, and 81 mph slider with confidence. For a brief moment, it looked like he might be a hidden gem in 2016.

2017 Projection: If there was any measure of good news related to Winkler's injury, he (and Braves fans) took solace in the fact that there was no ligament damage. He's unlikely to pitch this winter, but should be on schedule to try again this spring to get his major league career going. He is still a Rule 5 player who will have to be kept to begin the year or waived and offered back to the Rockies. At this point, we know he has an electric arm, but there have been questions about his pitching motion to begin with. He'll be a good story this spring if he's able to recapture his previous form.

From the Fort Bragg luncheon. By Sgt. anthony hewitt
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Matt Wisler, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: There was a lot of hope attached to Wisler after he finished 2015 with a 2.21 ERA and 26 strikeouts over his final 36.2 innings. He had a few rough starts early on, but finished this May with a 3.16 ERA and 48 K's over his first 68.1 innings. However, the wheels came off after that. Over his next ten starts, he had a 7.71 ERA before a demotion to Gwinnett took Wisler out of the picture. After four starts in the minors, Wisler was back in the majors to finish the season and we saw Good Wisler (career-high 10 K's against the Padres) and Bad Wisler (six runs given up in his next start).

2017 Projection: So far, Wisler has not shown the ability to command the strikezone and fool hitters. While he won't walk many batters, he's getting 1.5% less swinging strikes than the average. He's also a shade below-average in first-pitch strikes. This is despite inducing more swings than average and even a bit more contact than average. He still has a lot of potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm, but the reason the Braves signed Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey while bringing back Josh Collmenter is because Wisler and others have yet to prove that they belong in the majors. He'll get another shot in 2017 to shine, but things won't be any easier. Not only is there is a tougher road to securing a spot, but the competition is getting even more fierce with Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims joining the fray.

Chris Withrow, RHP, 28 years-old

2016 Review: After missing most of the last two seasons on the shelf, Chris Withrow was glad just to be back on the mound. The plus side was that, when combined with his dozen games in the minors, Withrow pitched 58 times and logged 48.2 innings of action. However, his arm wasn't nearly as electric as it was with the Dodgers when he first got to the bigs in 2013. His four-seamer was down 2 mph from when he was a top prospect and the results were a bit lacking (4.90 FIP/4.99 xFIP versus 3.57 FIP/3.03 xFIP in 2013).

2017 Projection: Unlike many of the lively arms the Braves have, Withrow doesn't have age on his side. On April Fool's Day, 2017, he'll turn 28 years-old. To put that into perspective, remember that Julio Teheran won't turn 26 until the end of January. There's a lot to like with Withrow, but a K% that was just  17.7% (down from over 30%) is not one of them. As I've said many times during this rundown of returning Braves, Withrow is in the mix. He used his final option this year, though, so how attached the Braves are to him will be tested if he struggles next spring.

Thanks for coming along for this ride.

Braves Go Big, Sign Bartolo Colon

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA (#WorldSeries Game 1:
Bartolo Colon) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

One day after adding 42 year-old R.A. Dickey to their rotation, the Atlanta Braves signed 43 year-old Bartolo Colon. If both reach at least 20 starts in 2017, it will be the first time since 2007 that a team had two starters get the ball that many times to begin a game. It's only happened once for the Braves - 1981 with Phil Niekro and Gaylord Perry.

Of course, by now, you know the Colon story. A Cy Young winner in 2005, Colon's career took a sharp downward turn due to injuries and poor pitching. In 2011, he made a triumphant comeback as a competent starter for the Yankees and after two years with the A's, he returned to the National League for the first time since 2002 when he signed with the Mets. Three years and 588.2 innings later, Colon is on the move again - this time to help open SunTrust Field to the tune of $12.5 million. Oddly, that's a fairly good price for Colon.

The last player still active who played for the Expos, Colon is a fan favorite. One of baseball's best moments in 2016 - before a magical World Series - was Colon's first career homer against the Padres. Outside of that, he is one of baseball's worst hitters with a career .091 average and a strikeout in over half of his 302 plate appearances. Weighing at least 285 pounds, Colon looks more like he's playing in a charity game rather than getting paid to play baseball professionally, but he makes it work.

But how?

While the image of an old pitcher throwing all kinds of junk at the plate hoping something gets by the hitter might immediately flood your mind when you think about Colon, he's really not that guy. For Colon, it's less about what he's throwing and more about where he's throwing it.

His main pitch is a sinker. Of course, it's lost 3-5 mph in velocity over the last decade, but he still averages 87.8 mph and the 95% +/- confidence interval tell us that the average is about what you should expect most of the time. He also throws a four-seamer at about 90 mph. While he does throw three other pitches, 85-90% of the time, you are getting two variations of a fastball. Again, it's about location and not trick pitches with Colon.

His collection of pitches includes a rarely thrown cutter, a change-up he throws more often to lefties, and a slider he almost exclusively uses against righties. He used his slider a lot less last year (a decrease of about 4-5%). His two breaking balls both are in the low 80's while his cutter is a few mph slower than his sinker.

Have I mentioned it's about location for Colon? He's going to live on the outside corner and only go inside to show that he's willing to. When he's on, he'll get a lot of foul balls off the bat and grounders up the middle. When he's not, he'll get a lot of foul balls off the bat and grounders up the middle and more homeruns. Either way, he's not going to hurt himself via walks, not is he going to get strikeouts.

While durable, Colon's innings and pitches per game have both declined the last two seasons. After reaching 100 pitches 14 times in 2014, he's only done it 11 times since. He only had one game where he failed to throw 80 or more pitches in 2014. He's done that 15 times since. Basically, it's like having a better, older, more robust Chuck James.

But why?

That's the bigger question. Why Colon especially after already adding Dickey (along with bringing back Josh Collmenter?). Here's a few possible hypotheses.

First, the Braves really don't have a lot of faith in Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, John Gant, Robert Whalen, and Tyrell Jenkins to be starters for them in 2017. These five pitchers combined to make 61 starts in 2016 for the Atlanta Braves. Now, they will battle Collmenter, other young starters looking to make a mark, and any other veteran the Braves bring in to join the rotation to open 2017. Atlanta feels that Colon gives them a better shot to compete now and the price was too good to pass up.

Second, the Braves feel another lean year is destined for 2017. They see the shallow free agent market, the unreasonable asking prices in trades, and the slow development of many prospects as reasons to not commit to long-term deals that could become untradeable albatrosses. Instead, they would rather roll the dice with one-year veterans who, as we all know, they can trade later to turn into future assets (such as the aforementioned Gant and Whalen).

Third, they need depth for when they trade Julio Teheran. I don't think this is likely, but let's run with this idea. The Braves are attached to Chris Archer in trade talks. Apparently, they asked about him and tried to gauge the Rays' asking price. What if that was research to see what the asking price might be for Teheran? It's a shallow free agent market (that may have been mentioned). Why not try to cash in an asset at above market value to take advantage?

Fourth, they really enjoy watching Colon bat. I really didn't have another hypothesis, but I didn't want to end on an odd number.

Whatever the case, the Braves should avoid the desperate search for random arms to help fill out the rotation in case of injury considering the depth they now have. That alone should make them a better squad in 2017.

Sticking to the Plan: Braves Add R.A. Dickey

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original) [CC By 2.0], via Flickr

In a case of an early free agency rumor becoming true, the Atlanta Braves have signed pitcher R.A. Dickey to a contract for 2017. According to Jon Heyman, he'll receive at least $8M (total includes $500K buyout) with a chance to earn an additional $7.5 million if his option for 2018 is exercised.

Let's take a look at what the Braves got.

Profiling Dickey

I don't know if you are aware of this, but Dickey throws the knuckleball. In fact, he throws it about 88% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. Along with Steven Wright and Eddie Gamboa, he's one of three knucklers to pitch in the majors since the retirement of Tim Wakefield in 2011. All three had been in the AL East, but that is no longer the case now.

Before Dickey, nobody threw the knuckleball with such velocity. That said, Dickey has "lost" about three ticks in velocity over the last two years from an average of 75.3 mph in 2014 to 72.2mph this year. However, those averages are pretty much useless because Dickey throws two knuckleballs that are only charted as one. The fast one is the one that shocks hitters and observers as, on a good day, it can reach 80 mph. The slower one is comparable to the Bugs Bunny cartoon where a hitter can swing three times on one pitch. Okay, maybe not that slow, but the two knucklers have about, on average, a 5-to-10 mph difference.

Dickey throws three other pitches, but last year seemed to relegate himself to a two-pitch pitcher. His sinker, which averaged 83 mph, was utilized 9.2% of the time. That represents an increase of double the usage from 2015. He rarely went to his fourseamer, which he adopted in 2012, nor his changeup - though that's nothing new. Now, here's the thing. Being a two-pitch pitcher is more in line with his Mets' days. Back then, he actually used his sinker much more (around a quarter of the time). Once he went to Toronto, his knuckleball usage went through the roof.

That's one thing the Braves may attempt to change once he arrives in camp in February. Dickey will also enjoy a move away from the homer-happy stadiums of the AL East where three of the five home parks in the division are extreme hitter paradises. That's especially true of his former home in Toronto. Since joining the Jays, Dickey had a HR/9 of 1.45 at home versus 1.02 on the road. While it's unknown how SunTrust Park will play, of the dozen current stadium in baseball that parkfactors.com gives a rating of 105+ - which classifies it as a hitter's park - only one is the NL East. In an unbalanced schedule, that should aid with Dickey's homerun numbers. He surrendered between 25 and 35 homeruns as a Blue Jay and between 1.05 and 1.49 HR/9. That mark should fall with his return to the NL.

That would also help his FIP/xFIP numbers. During his Blue Jays days, his best performance in those metrics was 4.32/4.14 in 2014. They looked noticeably worse over the last two years as his strikeouts fell. On the subject of K's, it's important to point out that he rebounded there last year (3% climb) and percentage-wise, he's just about 1.5% below where he was in 2014. Of bigger concern was that Dickey's walk numbers climbed sharply as a Blue Jay to a seven-year high of 8.7% last year. Perhaps less knucklers will help with that.

It's also important to not get too attached to the home/road splits. I gave you the homerun difference earlier, but from a FIP/xFIP standpoint, it's less stark. At home with the Blue Jays, Dickey had a combo split of 4.78/4.30. On the road, it was 4.36/4.59. While the FIP does keep the big change, the xFIP doesn't. That's because xFIP normalizes the homeruns surrendered. I'm pointing out this because if you think a return to the NL is just going to fix Dickey right up, you might be very disappointed. It's not to say Dickey won't be improved by a switch of leagues, but he's also not the guy who the Mets traded after 2012 anymore either.

How Dickey Fits

Dickey does do one thing the Braves are searching for. He takes the mound every fifth day. Until last year when he finished 31.1 innings short, the right-hander had pitched at least 208.2 innings every year since 2011. He would have at least gotten closer to 200 innings in 2016, but the Jays removed him from the rotation for the September stretch run. Since the Braves have had two pitchers reach 170 innings the last two seasons, an addition like Dickey will bring some calm to the staff and help them to avoid using AAAA depth guys like Lucas Harrell and Ryan Weber so frequently.

The knuckleballer also buys the Braves some time. Sean Newcomb is coming. So is Max Fried. As is Max Povse, Lucas Sims, and others. Matt Wisler, Tyrell Jenkins, John Gant, Robert Whalen, and more are already here. But the Braves don't want to just hand them spots. They want them to earn their spot like Mike Foltynewicz has. In the mean time, a veteran like Dickey gives them an option and let's not ignore that Dickey, for all his faults, gave the Jays over 800 innings and 6.4 fWAR the last four seasons. Only one pitcher has done either for the Braves. To be fair, Julio Teheran was 4.2 innings short of doing both.

It is unlikely Dickey will be the last starter the Braves add this winter. From the start, the idea was a guy like Dickey who will provide a short-term boost and help the Braves be better in 2017 while the young guns mature. Meanwhile, the Braves will seek another starter to stick around beyond 2017. Recently, I profiled Jason Hammel as a possibility. Regardless of what happens, the Braves do not want to run out of options like they did in 2016. Adding a guy like Dickey will help with that.

It's not a sexy signing. You'll probably have to remind yourself the Braves added Dickey by the time pitchers and catchers report. But it's a good signing that helps the Braves do what they have stated is their goal for 2017 - to be better.

2016 Player Reviews: Freddie Freeman, John Gant, Adonis Garcia

Welcome back to another edition of 2016 Player Reviews. Today's a biggy with a franchise cornerstone, a righty with a funky delivery, and one of the biggest surprises of 2016. Thanks for bearing with me as I look at these players and take stock in their contributions this season. With still over 30 to go, I hope to complete this series in the next couple of weeks.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Freddie Freeman, 1B, 27 years-old

Keith Allison via Flickr
Creative Commons

2016 Review: Remember when people used to say, "sure, Freddie's good and all, but he's not one of the best at his position?" Yeah, about that...Freeman only hit .302/.400/.569. Want more advanced metrics? Freeman posted a .402 wOBA with a 152 wRC+. His .267 ISO was seventy points higher than his previous career-best while he eclipsed 6 fWAR for the first time in his career. His homerun total breezed past 30 in no small part because he finished with a flyball rate higher than his groundball rate for the first time. And about how he compares to the league - Freeman's 6.1 fWAR was nearly a full run higher than the next major league first baseman and one of the ten best WAR totals according to Fangraphs in 2016. It was the kind of season John Hart - and yes, Frank Wren - envisioned when they extended Freeman for $135 million less than three years ago. His overall numbers are even more impressive when you remember that his OPS  was in the .750s through 60 games. Back then, fans and media types alike wondered if his wrist troubles from 2015 would limit the effectiveness of Freeman moving forward. Now, they wonder how much better Freeman can be in 2017 and beyond.

2017 Projection: Here's the good news - at just 27, Freeman is entering his prime. There is no reason to believe that Freeman can't be even better in 2017, though even a slight fallback campaign would still be plenty good. One of the many bright spots in Freeman's numbers was an OPS of .901 against left-handed pitchers. Freeman had been fairly limited against southpaws in his career with weak isolated slugging numbers against them, but that wasn't the case in 2016. Freeman is a franchise cornerstone and there no longer exists reasons to doubt that.

John Gant, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Let's just say that Gant is more than a funky delivery. Out of necessity more than anything, he made the roster to open the year despite having just 100 innings of experience above A-ball (all at Double A). Over six different stints with the club (including a trip to the DL), Gant logged an even 50 innings in the majors. He was about a league-average arm - which really isn't that bad of a thing to say about a guy getting his first taste of the majors. He walked a few too many and homeruns allowed were a little much, but the strikeout total was solid (8.8 per nine). His favorite pitch was the split-fingered fastball, which he delivered about 60% of the time. The remaining 40% was split pretty evenly between his curveball and changeup.

2017 Projection: Gant was not the higher-rated prospect of the duo of righties the Braves got from the Mets for Kelly Johnson in the summer of 2015. While he did beat Robert Whalen to the bigs, I still like Whalen's chances of sticking more. Gant does everything he can - including his delivery - to keep hitters off balance and his split-fingered heater has some decent getty-up on it. This surprises me, but he's never really been a high groundball pitcher despite a splitter/slider combo that hitters like to beat into the ground. If he could improve that, Gant could carve out a nice role in the majors as a low-end starter/long reliever. As for just next season, Gant is in the mix, but will need a big camp to make the Braves for a second straight opening day.

Adonis Garcia, 3B, 31 years-old

2016 Review: What a strange season Garcia had. After an exciting summer callup the previous year, Garcia won the lionshare of time at 3B to begin 2016. He struggled both in the field and at the plate and was banished to the minors for most of May before a return as the Braves sought offense. While the Braves flirted with the idea of moving Garcia back to left field, he settled back into the third base spot and improved his numbers dramatically. At the plate, there was both good-and-bad. He provided some power for what was, at times, a punchless lineup. His negatives, though, included weak on-base numbers (.311) and while he did hit 14 homeruns, his ISO was a mere .133 (or about 90 pounds below his 2015 run).

2017 Projection: Garcia is a mixed bag. The Braves are probably asking too much from him to be an everyday starter. Sure, when he's hot, like he was during July when he slashed .337/.370/.537, it's difficult to get him out of the lineup. He's a good enough hitter to avoid long stretches of disappearing, but not good enough to provide enough offensive talent at the plate. His defense was definitely improved after a trip to the minors and he's competent at the position. The Braves seem unlikely to splurge for a third baseman to take over the position full time, but Garcia could still lose playing time to the rookie, Rio Ruiz. A left-handed hitter, Ruiz could be protected a bit by Garcia, who has slashed .310/.357/.472 in 213 career PA against southpaws in the majors. If Ruiz needs more time, Garcia could be partnered up with a different platoon partner (perhaps Jace Peterson) or handed third to open 2017, though that's not ideal. Either way, the Braves are getting their money's worth and then some with Garcia.