When the season was set to begin with Eric Young Jr. in center field and Melvin Upton Jr. on the mend, I was hopeful that Todd Cunningham would make the team. Why? It's simple. The Braves needed a center fielder. While EYJ has certain attractive qualities (flexibility, speed), he's not a center fielder. While he made some plays this spring, people like me pondered if the plays he made were more a product of getting late starts after flyballs rather than his speed allowing him to get to balls many other players weren't capable of.
We have gotten our answer so far this season. While early season defensive metrics should naturally be taken with a healthy level of skeptism, EYJ has been pretty awful as a center fielder to this point. He has amassed -0.7 UZR, which is largely a product of a below-average range. As a 25th guy, EYJ makes your team better because he could play center field in a pinch along with left field and even second. That is valuable and historically, EYJ has been a stout left fielder where his speed plays up even more and, at the same time, his arm can be hid.
When the Braves traded for Cameron Maybin right before the season, there was no need for Cunningham. Instead, Maybin could play center field regularly. Sure, there are issues with Maybin...he strikes out too much, hasn't on-based .330 in any significant action in the majors, and is injury-prone. But he is something EYJ wasn't. A center fielder. And he was a better option than playing Melvin in center when the latter eventually was capable of returning to the Braves. Clearly, Maybin should be the starting center fielder.
Yet, 23 games into the season, EYJ has received three more starts than Maybin in center field. Fredi Gonzalez hasn't employed a platoon in the typical sense. Instead, he seems to ask a magic 8-ball for the answers. And it's not like EYJ is hitting, either. His numbers have fell to a miserable .169/.239/.292 and even if you accept that EYJ is being hit by an unlucky streak (.216 BABIP, line drive rate within his normal range), those numbers have kept Christian Bethancourt from getting starts. Why not EYJ?
Of course, it's not like Maybin's hit .377/.400/.604 though his first 60 PA, but Maybin has shown some power so far and his .354 wOBA is better than Nick Markakis. Will that continue? Probably not, but if you look at Maybin and EYJ's career marks, there's not a significant enough difference to justify one over the other offensively (EYJ carries a better OBP, Maybin a better SLG). EYJ's a better baserunner, though the only serious difference between the two is one is a capable center fielder and the other is a guy who can play around the field.
That alone should make Maybin the starter. The fact EYJ's not hitting should make the choice even easier. An underlying potential benefit to playing Maybin might be that he could increase his trade value. Maybin's owed $8M next year with a $9M team option for 2017 (or $1M buyout). This offseason, several center fielders will be hitting the open market. That could open a spot on a team searching for a stopgap option and Maybin could be had for a couple of decent prospects.
So, this is my plea. Play Maybin. Every day. Twice on Sunday provided there is a double header. Let EYJ be what he's best suited for and bring him off the bench. Make it happen, Fredi.
Showing posts with label FrediSucks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FrediSucks. Show all posts
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
The Misguided "Hooray for Smallball" Argument
Two games, two wins, two pretty good showings of the 2015 Braves offense. Against a very tough Henderson Alvarez on Monday, the Braves took advantage of a balk, a misplayed ball in center, a double clutch at second, and apparently Mother Nature (if Dee Gordon's to be believed) to win 2-1. Tuesday evening, the Braves shifted gears and worked the count into aiding a seven-run first. Of course, it helped that Mat Latos was throwing batting practice fastballs, but the Braves kept hitting it where they weren't, aided by a trio of doubles that quickly put the game out of reach in a 12-2 win.
Twitter and facebook groups quickly came to a conclusion. Smallball works and strikeouts are the devil.
There appears to be no undecided's on this front. To some, strikeouts are just another out and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that - in most circumstances - strikeouts are just another way to make an out when the name of the game is to not make outs. Others would argue that strikeouts too often are a product of selfishly giving up on an at-bat over putting the ball in play and forcing the defense to make a play. Like many other social and/or political stances in our country, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room on this subject.
However, it misses the point. In fact, it's basically trolling the subject.
Strikeouts aren't the enemy if your offense is built a certain way. On the other hand, smallball is best suited for certain offenses. It all boils down to philosophy. Let's get this out of the way...if the Atlanta Braves had showed the power last year that they did in 2013, they would have been a productive offense. They probably would have been in the playoffs. Frank Wren is probably still the general manager. But something went awry between 2013 and 2014. Looking at the numbers, it appeared the Braves, under a manager like Fredi Gonzalez, sought to not maximize their best abilities. Rather, they wanted to put the ball in play more. The problem with that philosophy, as justifiable as it may be in a vacuum, it doesn't work with the cast of characters the Braves had in 2014. The Braves swung more, but didn't make more contact. That led to the exact same strikeout percentage. That in itself doesn't tell us too much, but the bigger problem was that the Braves walked less and hit for less power. That turned what was, at worst (or best), an average offense in 2013 (101 RC+) to a woeful facsimile the following year despite largely sporting the same players. If Atlanta did desire to make more contact and strikeout less in 2014 than they did the previous year, it failed on both fronts with destructive side effects.
The Braves faced two possible avenues. Continue with Fredi and the same offensive players from 2014 and hope the problem was that their guys strangely hit better in odd years or accept that if Fredi is their guy, their personal ought to be better suited for what Fredi wants. Whether you like Fredi or not, and I'm certainly not a fan, you can't ask him to buy into a philosophy he doesn't support. That's why Wren wanted to get rid of him and that's why you wouldn't ask Bill Parcells to stick to a 4-3 defense when he prefers a 3-4. The manager has to be reflected in the philosophy of the team. One reason for the consistency of the Bobby Cox 2.0 Braves was because everyone was part of the same picture. At times, the philosophy altered, but what was important was that John Schuerholz and Cox were on the same page.
What does that have to do with this year's offense? Well, this year's offense suits Fredi. He wants the bunting, the aggressive running, the putting the ball in play. To be clear, there is no right way to score runs provided you, ya know, score runs. A look at the best offenses in terms of wRC+ over the last five years shows a variety of ways to sport an elite offense. The 2011 Red Sox did it with walks and power. Two years later, the Sox hit for less power and struck out more, but kept the walk rate and were a better team on the basepathes. The 2013 Tigers stunk as baserunning (which includes more than stealing bases). But they did for a high average and had enough pop. The 2012 Rangers didn't walk or strike out much, but hit for power (aided by their park). Boxing yourself into a Smallball vs. Three True Outcomes discussion is a waste of time. Both can work provided the team philosophy and the roster facilitates it. You wouldn't tell the 2013 Tigers that they need to steal more bases. Similarly, you wouldn't tell the 2013 Braves that they need to put the ball in play more. You would waste your team's best resources to tell Justin Upton he needs to put a bunt down.
Smallball works with the presently constructed roster and the manager tasked with getting the most out of it. It's not better than the 2013 offense that relied on walks, homers, and yes, a lot of strikeouts. It's not worse, either. It's right and that alone is a better use of the roster than we saw all of last year.
Twitter and facebook groups quickly came to a conclusion. Smallball works and strikeouts are the devil.
There appears to be no undecided's on this front. To some, strikeouts are just another out and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that - in most circumstances - strikeouts are just another way to make an out when the name of the game is to not make outs. Others would argue that strikeouts too often are a product of selfishly giving up on an at-bat over putting the ball in play and forcing the defense to make a play. Like many other social and/or political stances in our country, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room on this subject.
However, it misses the point. In fact, it's basically trolling the subject.
Strikeouts aren't the enemy if your offense is built a certain way. On the other hand, smallball is best suited for certain offenses. It all boils down to philosophy. Let's get this out of the way...if the Atlanta Braves had showed the power last year that they did in 2013, they would have been a productive offense. They probably would have been in the playoffs. Frank Wren is probably still the general manager. But something went awry between 2013 and 2014. Looking at the numbers, it appeared the Braves, under a manager like Fredi Gonzalez, sought to not maximize their best abilities. Rather, they wanted to put the ball in play more. The problem with that philosophy, as justifiable as it may be in a vacuum, it doesn't work with the cast of characters the Braves had in 2014. The Braves swung more, but didn't make more contact. That led to the exact same strikeout percentage. That in itself doesn't tell us too much, but the bigger problem was that the Braves walked less and hit for less power. That turned what was, at worst (or best), an average offense in 2013 (101 RC+) to a woeful facsimile the following year despite largely sporting the same players. If Atlanta did desire to make more contact and strikeout less in 2014 than they did the previous year, it failed on both fronts with destructive side effects.
The Braves faced two possible avenues. Continue with Fredi and the same offensive players from 2014 and hope the problem was that their guys strangely hit better in odd years or accept that if Fredi is their guy, their personal ought to be better suited for what Fredi wants. Whether you like Fredi or not, and I'm certainly not a fan, you can't ask him to buy into a philosophy he doesn't support. That's why Wren wanted to get rid of him and that's why you wouldn't ask Bill Parcells to stick to a 4-3 defense when he prefers a 3-4. The manager has to be reflected in the philosophy of the team. One reason for the consistency of the Bobby Cox 2.0 Braves was because everyone was part of the same picture. At times, the philosophy altered, but what was important was that John Schuerholz and Cox were on the same page.
What does that have to do with this year's offense? Well, this year's offense suits Fredi. He wants the bunting, the aggressive running, the putting the ball in play. To be clear, there is no right way to score runs provided you, ya know, score runs. A look at the best offenses in terms of wRC+ over the last five years shows a variety of ways to sport an elite offense. The 2011 Red Sox did it with walks and power. Two years later, the Sox hit for less power and struck out more, but kept the walk rate and were a better team on the basepathes. The 2013 Tigers stunk as baserunning (which includes more than stealing bases). But they did for a high average and had enough pop. The 2012 Rangers didn't walk or strike out much, but hit for power (aided by their park). Boxing yourself into a Smallball vs. Three True Outcomes discussion is a waste of time. Both can work provided the team philosophy and the roster facilitates it. You wouldn't tell the 2013 Tigers that they need to steal more bases. Similarly, you wouldn't tell the 2013 Braves that they need to put the ball in play more. You would waste your team's best resources to tell Justin Upton he needs to put a bunt down.
Smallball works with the presently constructed roster and the manager tasked with getting the most out of it. It's not better than the 2013 offense that relied on walks, homers, and yes, a lot of strikeouts. It's not worse, either. It's right and that alone is a better use of the roster than we saw all of last year.
Friday, February 27, 2015
This is Why We Can't Have Nice Things...Again
From David O'Brien's recent column on non-roster invitees, we get this little nugget. "He" in the following quote is Fredi Gonzalez.
But that's not what Fredi ultimately says. He likens EY Jr. to Bourn as a possible leadoff option against right-handed pitching.
Is that a real comparison? In the one full season that Bourn was in Atlanta, his OBP was about .350 against right-handed pitching, or roughly six points higher than his career average. That's a pretty stout OBP and you probably can tell where I am going by focusing on that number. There are better stats, but for lead-off hitters, very few are more important than OBP.
Let's compare that with Eric Young's son. Last year, Young on-based .316 against right-handed pitching. The year before? Try a .305 OBP. Career-wise, it's a .321 OBP. If you believe in LOR, or leadoff rating (check this article for more), Young's LOR against righties is .239, or well below what we would consider a decent LOR for possible options leading off.
Yet, it sounds like Fredi is considering Young for a spot leading off against right-handed pitching. Why? The only possible explanation is that he's fast. It's fairly depressing in 2015 that this mindset still exists. The information is readily available. I'm not saying there's no room for Young on the 2015 roster...depending on the bench's makeup, he's a reasonable option. But he should only be the 25th guy on your team. Sadly, because some fictional book said you need speed leading off, that appears like a possibility for the upcoming year. Of course, this guy also batted Andrelton Simmons lead-off so in retrospect, Young might be an improved option.
“I think the world of Eric Young,” he said. “He can really bring a different dynamic that we haven’t had here since Michael Bourn, leading off against right-handed pitching or whatever you want to do. So that’s an exciting non-roster invitee, really.”This is why Fredi Gonzalez is a mental midget. Now, most managers are, but this is a Braves blog so try to stay focused here. To compare EY Jr and Bourn, you have to drop all of their particulars skills aside from one, which appears to be the only dynamic Fredi is looking at. Speed. In that category, he is absolutely right. Young, like Bourn, is fast.
But that's not what Fredi ultimately says. He likens EY Jr. to Bourn as a possible leadoff option against right-handed pitching.
Is that a real comparison? In the one full season that Bourn was in Atlanta, his OBP was about .350 against right-handed pitching, or roughly six points higher than his career average. That's a pretty stout OBP and you probably can tell where I am going by focusing on that number. There are better stats, but for lead-off hitters, very few are more important than OBP.
Let's compare that with Eric Young's son. Last year, Young on-based .316 against right-handed pitching. The year before? Try a .305 OBP. Career-wise, it's a .321 OBP. If you believe in LOR, or leadoff rating (check this article for more), Young's LOR against righties is .239, or well below what we would consider a decent LOR for possible options leading off.
Yet, it sounds like Fredi is considering Young for a spot leading off against right-handed pitching. Why? The only possible explanation is that he's fast. It's fairly depressing in 2015 that this mindset still exists. The information is readily available. I'm not saying there's no room for Young on the 2015 roster...depending on the bench's makeup, he's a reasonable option. But he should only be the 25th guy on your team. Sadly, because some fictional book said you need speed leading off, that appears like a possibility for the upcoming year. Of course, this guy also batted Andrelton Simmons lead-off so in retrospect, Young might be an improved option.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Could the Braves Compete in 2015? Depends on Simba.
While there has been a lot of discussion given to the idea that the Braves are gearing up for a 2017 contention, I am left wondering how outlandish of an idea is it that Atlanta will compete as soon as next year? I mean, this team is only a year removed from 96 wins. Why are we resigning ourselves to the prospect of going through a quick two-year rebuild?
Partly, this comes down to a flawed team. In 2014, the power that this team was built on in 2013 left them. The patience that was the 2013's secret weapon was gone. What remained was a team that didn't get on base much and didn't hit many homers. The 20 homers Brian McCann provided in 2013 were replaced by Evan Gattis, but no one replaced Gattis's 21 homers. The 22 homers from Dan Uggla were gone. Of course, Chris Johnson fell back to Earth rather than avoid reality.
And then...there was Andrelton Simmons. Simba was hardly an offensive force in 2013. He on-based .296, making it rather confusing why Fredi Gonzalez wouldn't waver from batting him leadoff until late into the season. But he did show some pop with a .149 ISO and was reasonably close to at least being an average offensive performer with a 91 RC+. With his defense, average offense makes him an MVP candidate.
But in 2014, Simmons saw a moderate drop in BB%, a moderate rise in K%, and a considerable drop in ISO to .087. That dropped him to a 71 RC+. To reference that last number, B.J. Upton had a 74 RC+ last season. Oh, and Johnson had an 82 RC+. All three players ranked among the lowest 16 RC+ in the game last season among qualified players with Simmons finishing with the fifth worst total. It's wonder the Braves even scored three runs last year. Now, Simmons can get away with a zero bat to some degree because of his spectacular defense and Simmons was still a 2 win player last season, but on a team that made too many outs last season, Simmons was the best (?) at it.
With that in mind, if the Braves are to compete in 2015, it might come down to whether or not Simba can display some average offensive numbers. Something akin to Dee Gordon's slash of .289/.326/.378. Obviously, Simmons won't swipe 60 bases, but that kind of offensive display is enough to keep you from being a weakness in the lineup and we can imagine that Simmons would actually do better from a pop side if he returns to his 2013 numbers.
Alas, there is a good chance he won't do that. Only three players have posted a worse BABIP over the last two seasons than Simmons and his .255 average on balls in play. Two of those three have actually been worth less offensively than Simmons. The average BABIP is about .298 over those two seasons so Simmons is already starting at a disadvantage. He has to maximize his offense opportunities, not minimize them. If he's not going to walk, he has turn the balls he puts into play into hits at a much higher clip.
We all know that Simmons' swing explains a lot of this mess. His max-effort swing makes it amazing that he's even capable of making so much contact. It also leads to the sixth highest percentage of infield flies.
Simmons will be productive regardless because of his defense. His case is similar to Alexei Ramirez, the White Sox shortstop who relies on his power to get his offense near average. In the American League, you can hide a guy like Ramirez, though. In this Braves lineup, it's hard to hide Simmons when you have B.J. and CJ, plus the potential addition of Christian Bethancourt. That's already a lot of outs and while B.J. could play better than he has the last two seasons and CJ could sell his soul again to see his numbers climb, the onus to produce may fall on Simmons. In the minors, Simmons relied on a higher BABIP which led to a higher batting average. He didn't corkscrew swing quite as much and instead made gap-to-gap contact. If the Braves are going to surprise anyone in 2015, it might come down to Simmons progressing with his bat. He's going to be in the lineup every day regardless. Having a .290 OBP is impossible to hide in this lineup. The Braves must get more and Simmons must progress. There's just too many outs as is.
Partly, this comes down to a flawed team. In 2014, the power that this team was built on in 2013 left them. The patience that was the 2013's secret weapon was gone. What remained was a team that didn't get on base much and didn't hit many homers. The 20 homers Brian McCann provided in 2013 were replaced by Evan Gattis, but no one replaced Gattis's 21 homers. The 22 homers from Dan Uggla were gone. Of course, Chris Johnson fell back to Earth rather than avoid reality.
And then...there was Andrelton Simmons. Simba was hardly an offensive force in 2013. He on-based .296, making it rather confusing why Fredi Gonzalez wouldn't waver from batting him leadoff until late into the season. But he did show some pop with a .149 ISO and was reasonably close to at least being an average offensive performer with a 91 RC+. With his defense, average offense makes him an MVP candidate.
But in 2014, Simmons saw a moderate drop in BB%, a moderate rise in K%, and a considerable drop in ISO to .087. That dropped him to a 71 RC+. To reference that last number, B.J. Upton had a 74 RC+ last season. Oh, and Johnson had an 82 RC+. All three players ranked among the lowest 16 RC+ in the game last season among qualified players with Simmons finishing with the fifth worst total. It's wonder the Braves even scored three runs last year. Now, Simmons can get away with a zero bat to some degree because of his spectacular defense and Simmons was still a 2 win player last season, but on a team that made too many outs last season, Simmons was the best (?) at it.
With that in mind, if the Braves are to compete in 2015, it might come down to whether or not Simba can display some average offensive numbers. Something akin to Dee Gordon's slash of .289/.326/.378. Obviously, Simmons won't swipe 60 bases, but that kind of offensive display is enough to keep you from being a weakness in the lineup and we can imagine that Simmons would actually do better from a pop side if he returns to his 2013 numbers.
Alas, there is a good chance he won't do that. Only three players have posted a worse BABIP over the last two seasons than Simmons and his .255 average on balls in play. Two of those three have actually been worth less offensively than Simmons. The average BABIP is about .298 over those two seasons so Simmons is already starting at a disadvantage. He has to maximize his offense opportunities, not minimize them. If he's not going to walk, he has turn the balls he puts into play into hits at a much higher clip.
We all know that Simmons' swing explains a lot of this mess. His max-effort swing makes it amazing that he's even capable of making so much contact. It also leads to the sixth highest percentage of infield flies.
Simmons will be productive regardless because of his defense. His case is similar to Alexei Ramirez, the White Sox shortstop who relies on his power to get his offense near average. In the American League, you can hide a guy like Ramirez, though. In this Braves lineup, it's hard to hide Simmons when you have B.J. and CJ, plus the potential addition of Christian Bethancourt. That's already a lot of outs and while B.J. could play better than he has the last two seasons and CJ could sell his soul again to see his numbers climb, the onus to produce may fall on Simmons. In the minors, Simmons relied on a higher BABIP which led to a higher batting average. He didn't corkscrew swing quite as much and instead made gap-to-gap contact. If the Braves are going to surprise anyone in 2015, it might come down to Simmons progressing with his bat. He's going to be in the lineup every day regardless. Having a .290 OBP is impossible to hide in this lineup. The Braves must get more and Simmons must progress. There's just too many outs as is.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: The Outfield
Let's finish up, shall we?
Outfield
Who we got?... Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza (I guess), Zoilo Almonte (?), Evan Gattis (sigh)
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Ryan Doumit, Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Todd Cunningham, Kyle Wren
There is an outside shot the Braves could field an entirely new outfield in 2015, but that's probably not going to happen. What seems fairly possible is at least one player will be moved and that the "Dream Outfield" will be broken up before a third year.
In the case of J-Hey, we are seeing a real disconnect between the more traditional crowd and the sabermetric one. J-Hey's offense is hardly stand-out. Like too many Braves last year, his power was MIA and his isolated slugging was .113. He's only a career .262/.351/.429 hitter. He stole 20 bases for the second time in three years, though between those years was a two-steal year. Hardly what the phenom was supposed to be capable of when he first came on the scene back in 2010. Yet, a nerd would go to fangraphs and other websites and tell you that J-Hey is a great ball player. He's been nearly worth 15 fWAR the last three seasons, plays extraordinary defense (32 DRS last year was the 2nd most since the stat began in 2002), and his baserunning is well above average (one of 35 players to post at least 10 BRS the last three years). What's really interesting is where this disconnect lands Heyward contractually. Without the traditional numbers, will he able to attract the kind of money many of us foresee guys with 5 and 6 fWAR seasons in the bank? Heyward, who is a free agent after 2015, will either be overpaid or underpaid depending on what you value.
J-Up will also hit free agency next winter and the guy who was not gritty enough to be a Diamondback has been worth 7 fWAR the last two seasons while hitting 56 homers. He's a more established hitter than Heyward, but not as complete of a player. This is where I think things could get intriguing. Which one gets the bigger deal? I can see teams that value statistical analysis aiming for Heyward while more traditional front offices wanting Upton (if they don't buy the D'Backs BS).
In center is Justin's older brother, B.J. Let's get this out of the way: Upton was better in 2014 than he was in 2013. That's to say that he only had his second worst season of his career, not the worst. Earlier, I mentioned that over the last two seasons, only one player has made less contact than B.J. when he swings. Put it this way...slightly more than 30% of the time B.J. swings, he makes no contact. That's roughly 10% more than the average. The average swinging strike% is 9.5%. Basically, how many times did you swing and miss out of total swings. B.J. has been above 15% both of the last two years. Only five other players have done that. The weird thing is that B.J., unlike many of those guys, doesn't swing all that much at pitches outside the strike zone. He actually is above average and doesn't offer too often at the crap. He simply doesn't make contact. Weirdest thing. If the Braves can't fix that, they will be on the hook for $45M to a guy who might not give them more than 2 wins above replacement over the lifetime of the contract (sitting at -0.2 right now).
Behind them is the recently signed Zoilo Almonte. Like Ramiro Pena before him, the Braves thought enough of the Yankees trash to offer a major league deal. He's got pretty good pop and can switch-hit, but I don't see much to get excited about. Terdo can back up at the corner outfield spots and might develop into a useful bench bat. Constanza licks bats. I feel like that's all I should mention.
Doumit was woeful in his new role as pinch-hitter deluxe while Bonifacio could be brought back to be the 25th guy. He's not a particularly good outfielder, but he's not particularly good at anything which is why he's only suited to be a backup. At Gwinnett is the uber-ready Cunningham and Mr. Wren. Cunningham certainly deserves a shot that the Braves don't seem to think he's capable of doing much with. He won't hit for much pop, but does other things fairly well and dammit, he's home grown. Give him a shot. As for Wren, he has potential, but might need more time.
And yeah, there's Gattis. I want to believe Atlanta's not dumb enough to use him in left, but then Fredi says something like Gattis "could be versatile, can catch, play LF" and I want to scream. This should not happen. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN!!!!!
It's probably going to happen.
Depth Chart
RF: Heyward
CF: B.J. Upton
LF: J. Upton
1. Almonte
2. Constanza
3. Cunningham
4. Terdoslavich
Outfield
Who we got?... Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza (I guess), Zoilo Almonte (?), Evan Gattis (sigh)
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Ryan Doumit, Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Todd Cunningham, Kyle Wren
There is an outside shot the Braves could field an entirely new outfield in 2015, but that's probably not going to happen. What seems fairly possible is at least one player will be moved and that the "Dream Outfield" will be broken up before a third year.
In the case of J-Hey, we are seeing a real disconnect between the more traditional crowd and the sabermetric one. J-Hey's offense is hardly stand-out. Like too many Braves last year, his power was MIA and his isolated slugging was .113. He's only a career .262/.351/.429 hitter. He stole 20 bases for the second time in three years, though between those years was a two-steal year. Hardly what the phenom was supposed to be capable of when he first came on the scene back in 2010. Yet, a nerd would go to fangraphs and other websites and tell you that J-Hey is a great ball player. He's been nearly worth 15 fWAR the last three seasons, plays extraordinary defense (32 DRS last year was the 2nd most since the stat began in 2002), and his baserunning is well above average (one of 35 players to post at least 10 BRS the last three years). What's really interesting is where this disconnect lands Heyward contractually. Without the traditional numbers, will he able to attract the kind of money many of us foresee guys with 5 and 6 fWAR seasons in the bank? Heyward, who is a free agent after 2015, will either be overpaid or underpaid depending on what you value.
J-Up will also hit free agency next winter and the guy who was not gritty enough to be a Diamondback has been worth 7 fWAR the last two seasons while hitting 56 homers. He's a more established hitter than Heyward, but not as complete of a player. This is where I think things could get intriguing. Which one gets the bigger deal? I can see teams that value statistical analysis aiming for Heyward while more traditional front offices wanting Upton (if they don't buy the D'Backs BS).
In center is Justin's older brother, B.J. Let's get this out of the way: Upton was better in 2014 than he was in 2013. That's to say that he only had his second worst season of his career, not the worst. Earlier, I mentioned that over the last two seasons, only one player has made less contact than B.J. when he swings. Put it this way...slightly more than 30% of the time B.J. swings, he makes no contact. That's roughly 10% more than the average. The average swinging strike% is 9.5%. Basically, how many times did you swing and miss out of total swings. B.J. has been above 15% both of the last two years. Only five other players have done that. The weird thing is that B.J., unlike many of those guys, doesn't swing all that much at pitches outside the strike zone. He actually is above average and doesn't offer too often at the crap. He simply doesn't make contact. Weirdest thing. If the Braves can't fix that, they will be on the hook for $45M to a guy who might not give them more than 2 wins above replacement over the lifetime of the contract (sitting at -0.2 right now).
Behind them is the recently signed Zoilo Almonte. Like Ramiro Pena before him, the Braves thought enough of the Yankees trash to offer a major league deal. He's got pretty good pop and can switch-hit, but I don't see much to get excited about. Terdo can back up at the corner outfield spots and might develop into a useful bench bat. Constanza licks bats. I feel like that's all I should mention.
Doumit was woeful in his new role as pinch-hitter deluxe while Bonifacio could be brought back to be the 25th guy. He's not a particularly good outfielder, but he's not particularly good at anything which is why he's only suited to be a backup. At Gwinnett is the uber-ready Cunningham and Mr. Wren. Cunningham certainly deserves a shot that the Braves don't seem to think he's capable of doing much with. He won't hit for much pop, but does other things fairly well and dammit, he's home grown. Give him a shot. As for Wren, he has potential, but might need more time.
And yeah, there's Gattis. I want to believe Atlanta's not dumb enough to use him in left, but then Fredi says something like Gattis "could be versatile, can catch, play LF" and I want to scream. This should not happen. THIS SHOULD NOT HAPPEN!!!!!
It's probably going to happen.
Depth Chart
RF: Heyward
CF: B.J. Upton
LF: J. Upton
1. Almonte
2. Constanza
3. Cunningham
4. Terdoslavich
Friday, November 7, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: The Bullpen
Like the starting rotation, the bullpen kept the Braves' dismal hopes alive even as the offense sputtered throughout the season. Only three other teams could say they had relief pitching with a better FIP and that's with David Hale sucking (as he tends to do). Nevertheless, this was a bit of a fall in the rankings from the 2013 bullpen that led the lead in FIP. Will that trend continue going into 2015 or will the Braves show some upward mobility? Hard to really tell as relievers are notoriously fragile and subject to inconsistent performances from year-to-year. However, there should be enough to get by, especially with you-know-who in the traditional closer role, even if that limits him in the eyes of his manager.
Who we got?... Craig Kimbrel, Luis Avilan, Anthony Varvaro, Cory Gearrin, David Hale, Gus Schlosser, Ian Thomas, Juan Jaime, Chasen Shreve, Shae Simmons.
Who's getting Arby?... Jordan Walden, David Carpenter, James Russell, Jonny Venters
Who might be going?... Ryan Buchter, Venters probably
Who might be coming?...John Cornely, Alex Wilson, Nate Hyatt
Braves went through a lot of relievers last season (15 of them) and most are already on their way back in 2015 so Atlanta might be intrigued by the idea of dealing an arbitration-eligible guy to save some green, though they will need better performances out of some of the guys who made their debut just last season. Of course, the pen is led by Kimbrel, who is locked up until at least 2017 after inking a contract extension last winter. Kimbrel wasn't as sharp last season as in previous years and too often seemed to struggle to locate his fastball. Still, he K'd 13.9 per nine and posted a FIP of 1.83. If only the rest of the team had guys who could see a little drop off from two years ago and post ridiculously impressive numbers. He's still the best, though the best is limited to the situations Fredi Gonzalez feels comfortable using him in.
Beyond Kimbrel, the rest of the guys will likely be on one-year deals and the majority of them will be playing for the minimum. Varvaro had his most impressive season and barely missed the cutoff for Super Two, which would have started his arbitration pay-days. As is, he'll get near the minimum and if he puts up 2014-like numbers, he'll get paid pretty well. Fredi transitioned Varvaro from long guy to high-leverage guy and he responded with the best FIP and K-BB rate of his career. On the flipside, Avilan tanked. Only Hale posted a fWAR that was worse as a reliever for the Braves and I've read from very trusted sources that Hale sucks. The writing was kind of on the wall for Avilan, though. In his 2012 rookie season, Avilan's K/9 was 8.3. It was 5.3 the next season and around the same last season. His 2013 BABIP was an unsustainable .204. Add in a 2014 walk-rate that ballooned and you have all the makings of an epic fail. Still, Fredi trusted him. Still, Fredi is the manager. Still, I need my ulcer medication.
A bunch of new guys showed up. Some had hype, others came out of nowhere, and one guy was named Gus. Shae Simmons, or Simbrel, looked like he was going to be a top set-up guy for the Braves. Like a clone of Kimbrel, the diminutive Simmons came with heat and was devastating, but shoulder issues limited him to only 26 games. If fully healthy, Simmons could eventually unseat Kimbrel if the Braves decide they are paying too much for a closer. Southpaw Chasen Shreve has a name that doesn't fit for a guy from Las Vegas, but down the stretch, he became the most trusted left-hander the Braves had even if Fredi didn't want to acknowledge that. He allowed just one earned run in 12.1 ING, walked three, and struck out 15. Shreve found control in 2014 and to go with his brief major league run, he walked just 12 in 64 minor league innings after giving the free pass to 22 in 22 fewer innings the previous season. Heading into 2015, like Simbrel, Shreve looks to have a big role provided he continues to perform and stay healthy. The rest of the names are easy to sum up. Gearrin got hurt, would be non-tendered if he was arbitration-eligible, and is unlikely to be kept simply because he's out of options. Hale is a meh long reliever (he sucks). Ian Thomas was in rookie ball two years ago, broke camp with the team, wasn't terrible (or good), got demoted and was done by the end of July due to injury. Juan Jaime is Manny Acosta Jr. Gus Schlosser is JUST a good name.
Arbitration cases are pretty interesting. Walden spent most of the year having fans of the opposite teams complain that his hop was a balk on twitter. Beyond that, he was very good (though he did hit the DL). The Braves could look to move him to invest his money toward the bench and count on Simbrel to take over his role. Or they could move Carpenter, who spent half of 2014 exercising the demons from Juan Uribe's NLDS homer the previous fall. This provided for some MASSIVELY different splits. Except that they didn't. While Carp's first-half ERA was 4.26, his other rates were pretty similar to the second half. So, while most were saying that Carp was a lost cause, they could have looked at his BABIP (which stood at .448 during the first half) and knew things would change. They did and he finished very strong. James Russell looked like a perfect fit for the Braves. The former Cub was a LOOGY who was team-controlled and could answer their season-long issues with that role. Except for whatever weird reason, Russell wasn't getting out lefties. It's not like Russell started to suck...his FIP was the best of his career...he just couldn't do the thing he was being paid to do and had been successful at doing since coming to the majors. The fact that he used his fastball more this year and used his slider a lot less tells me either two things...one, he was trying to move away from the slider or more likely, he was struggling with his release point and thus, location. He should be fine in 2015.
This would seem like bad news for Venters, though he's heard a lot worse. Three Tommy John's. The number of pitchers who have made a return to the majors from three TJS's is incredibly small. So small that I fit it into the next two words: Jason Isringhausen. No other pitcher is known to have undergone three of the surgeries and make it back to the majors. Venters, who made $1.625M for the second consecutive season with arbitration, will not be given the opportunity to make it for a third straight season and likely won't pitch again until 2016, if ever. He has just one more year of arbitration. The Braves, if they are feeling charitable, could non-tender him and offer him a creative minor league deal. Doubt it, though. The Braves have bigger concerns. Also likely out is another lefty, Ryan Buchter. He was designated for assignment in late September and outrighted to the minors, where I believe he'll become a minor league free agent. His career walk rate...6.1 BB/9.
Braves don't have much coming either. John Cornely was briefly placed on the 40 man roster last year and is back off. The righty did post his best season with Mississippi last year, though, and the Braves liked him enough to send him to the AFL after 2013. Wilson and Hyatt both pitched in Lynchburg last season with Wilson shutting down 16 games to lead the Hillcats in saves. Both would be major stretches especially with so many young guys already in Atlanta.
Depth Chart
1. Kimbrel
2. Carpenter
3. Walden
4. Russell
5. Varvaro
6.
7.
The Braves will likely bring in a veteran or two to fight for jobs, but the bullpen seems like a position the front office probably feels comfortable with. In addition to the five I point out in the depth chart, there are young guys like Shreve and Simmons plus holdovers like Avilan and Hale who would appear to have a good shot to at least add depth to the bullpen heading into 2015. Of course, beyond an injury or two that is bound to occur, a trade might take away at least one from the depth, but the Braves have the ability to make a deal here and feel comfortable enough with what they still have.
Who we got?... Craig Kimbrel, Luis Avilan, Anthony Varvaro, Cory Gearrin, David Hale, Gus Schlosser, Ian Thomas, Juan Jaime, Chasen Shreve, Shae Simmons.
Who's getting Arby?... Jordan Walden, David Carpenter, James Russell, Jonny Venters
Who might be going?... Ryan Buchter, Venters probably
Who might be coming?...John Cornely, Alex Wilson, Nate Hyatt
Braves went through a lot of relievers last season (15 of them) and most are already on their way back in 2015 so Atlanta might be intrigued by the idea of dealing an arbitration-eligible guy to save some green, though they will need better performances out of some of the guys who made their debut just last season. Of course, the pen is led by Kimbrel, who is locked up until at least 2017 after inking a contract extension last winter. Kimbrel wasn't as sharp last season as in previous years and too often seemed to struggle to locate his fastball. Still, he K'd 13.9 per nine and posted a FIP of 1.83. If only the rest of the team had guys who could see a little drop off from two years ago and post ridiculously impressive numbers. He's still the best, though the best is limited to the situations Fredi Gonzalez feels comfortable using him in.
Beyond Kimbrel, the rest of the guys will likely be on one-year deals and the majority of them will be playing for the minimum. Varvaro had his most impressive season and barely missed the cutoff for Super Two, which would have started his arbitration pay-days. As is, he'll get near the minimum and if he puts up 2014-like numbers, he'll get paid pretty well. Fredi transitioned Varvaro from long guy to high-leverage guy and he responded with the best FIP and K-BB rate of his career. On the flipside, Avilan tanked. Only Hale posted a fWAR that was worse as a reliever for the Braves and I've read from very trusted sources that Hale sucks. The writing was kind of on the wall for Avilan, though. In his 2012 rookie season, Avilan's K/9 was 8.3. It was 5.3 the next season and around the same last season. His 2013 BABIP was an unsustainable .204. Add in a 2014 walk-rate that ballooned and you have all the makings of an epic fail. Still, Fredi trusted him. Still, Fredi is the manager. Still, I need my ulcer medication.
A bunch of new guys showed up. Some had hype, others came out of nowhere, and one guy was named Gus. Shae Simmons, or Simbrel, looked like he was going to be a top set-up guy for the Braves. Like a clone of Kimbrel, the diminutive Simmons came with heat and was devastating, but shoulder issues limited him to only 26 games. If fully healthy, Simmons could eventually unseat Kimbrel if the Braves decide they are paying too much for a closer. Southpaw Chasen Shreve has a name that doesn't fit for a guy from Las Vegas, but down the stretch, he became the most trusted left-hander the Braves had even if Fredi didn't want to acknowledge that. He allowed just one earned run in 12.1 ING, walked three, and struck out 15. Shreve found control in 2014 and to go with his brief major league run, he walked just 12 in 64 minor league innings after giving the free pass to 22 in 22 fewer innings the previous season. Heading into 2015, like Simbrel, Shreve looks to have a big role provided he continues to perform and stay healthy. The rest of the names are easy to sum up. Gearrin got hurt, would be non-tendered if he was arbitration-eligible, and is unlikely to be kept simply because he's out of options. Hale is a meh long reliever (he sucks). Ian Thomas was in rookie ball two years ago, broke camp with the team, wasn't terrible (or good), got demoted and was done by the end of July due to injury. Juan Jaime is Manny Acosta Jr. Gus Schlosser is JUST a good name.
Arbitration cases are pretty interesting. Walden spent most of the year having fans of the opposite teams complain that his hop was a balk on twitter. Beyond that, he was very good (though he did hit the DL). The Braves could look to move him to invest his money toward the bench and count on Simbrel to take over his role. Or they could move Carpenter, who spent half of 2014 exercising the demons from Juan Uribe's NLDS homer the previous fall. This provided for some MASSIVELY different splits. Except that they didn't. While Carp's first-half ERA was 4.26, his other rates were pretty similar to the second half. So, while most were saying that Carp was a lost cause, they could have looked at his BABIP (which stood at .448 during the first half) and knew things would change. They did and he finished very strong. James Russell looked like a perfect fit for the Braves. The former Cub was a LOOGY who was team-controlled and could answer their season-long issues with that role. Except for whatever weird reason, Russell wasn't getting out lefties. It's not like Russell started to suck...his FIP was the best of his career...he just couldn't do the thing he was being paid to do and had been successful at doing since coming to the majors. The fact that he used his fastball more this year and used his slider a lot less tells me either two things...one, he was trying to move away from the slider or more likely, he was struggling with his release point and thus, location. He should be fine in 2015.
This would seem like bad news for Venters, though he's heard a lot worse. Three Tommy John's. The number of pitchers who have made a return to the majors from three TJS's is incredibly small. So small that I fit it into the next two words: Jason Isringhausen. No other pitcher is known to have undergone three of the surgeries and make it back to the majors. Venters, who made $1.625M for the second consecutive season with arbitration, will not be given the opportunity to make it for a third straight season and likely won't pitch again until 2016, if ever. He has just one more year of arbitration. The Braves, if they are feeling charitable, could non-tender him and offer him a creative minor league deal. Doubt it, though. The Braves have bigger concerns. Also likely out is another lefty, Ryan Buchter. He was designated for assignment in late September and outrighted to the minors, where I believe he'll become a minor league free agent. His career walk rate...6.1 BB/9.
Braves don't have much coming either. John Cornely was briefly placed on the 40 man roster last year and is back off. The righty did post his best season with Mississippi last year, though, and the Braves liked him enough to send him to the AFL after 2013. Wilson and Hyatt both pitched in Lynchburg last season with Wilson shutting down 16 games to lead the Hillcats in saves. Both would be major stretches especially with so many young guys already in Atlanta.
Depth Chart
1. Kimbrel
2. Carpenter
3. Walden
4. Russell
5. Varvaro
6.
7.
The Braves will likely bring in a veteran or two to fight for jobs, but the bullpen seems like a position the front office probably feels comfortable with. In addition to the five I point out in the depth chart, there are young guys like Shreve and Simmons plus holdovers like Avilan and Hale who would appear to have a good shot to at least add depth to the bullpen heading into 2015. Of course, beyond an injury or two that is bound to occur, a trade might take away at least one from the depth, but the Braves have the ability to make a deal here and feel comfortable enough with what they still have.
Monday, November 3, 2014
Guess who's back (back again)
Oddly, I keep coming back to the blogosphere as if it's something I am committed to. I think I just like the idea that my words have meaning. After all, here they are. On the internet and everything. So...yeah.
Been a busy month or so in Atlanta. First, after the Braves were rudely informed that the 2014 playoffs wasn't something they needed to worry themselves with, general manager Frank Wren was fired along with his brother, some jackass assistant GM, and anyone who didn't immediately answer "shitty" to the question, "what kind of person was Wren?"
This was followed by a "exhaustive search" led by John Schuerholz, Robert Joseph Cox, and John Hart. This weeks-long quest scoured the landscape for the right guy who believed in the "Braves Way" and that Fredi Gonzalez was really a idiot savant when it came to baseball. The search truly was a interesting one with rumors of the some of the youngest and brightest minds in the game taking over to lead us all to a new dynasty. Just kidding...as you might know because we at Walk-Off Walk do not break news...a member of the search committee, Hart, was named the President of Baseball Operations because general manager didn't sound important enough. Fast rising GM candidate John Coppolella remains with the organization as the "right-hand guy" because that's far more valuable than a GM. Seriously, why can't we just do things easy?
A slew of moves that brought back many of the scouts that Wren "chased away" preceded Hart being named President Baseball Op, including the return of former Head Scout Roy Clark. This gave the AJC ample opportunity to further bury Wren as the absolute worst human since Bin Laden, which will certainly assist Wren in efforts to find employment.
Not lost in this mess was the news that one of the contentions Wren had with the upper crust in Atlanta was that he wanted to fire Fredi. Like an overbearing mother sticking up for her brat of a son, Bobby Cox came to Fredi's rescue and convinced Schuerholz that Fredi was the right guy in Atlanta. Hard to expect your general manager to do his job effectively when he has no control over who manages the team he puts together. Hart won't concern himself with that, though. He's a Presidente after all, not a lowly general manager.
While the Royals stole our hearts and Fox gave us a broadcasting booth that included both Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds, the Braves settled on their coaching staff that would earn our scorn. They picked up former Royal Kevin Seitzer to be the team's hitting coach for 2015. Seitzer is the kind of guy Fredi wants. Seitzer preached gap-to-gap hitting while avoiding strikeouts. This is good and all except that kind of approach doesn't reflect the team that has been built. Recently, the Braves also hired Jose Castro as the assistant hitting coach. Castro has the kind of common name that OOTP players get very used to seeing in the low minor leagues. Apparently, he's been a hitting coach or minor league coordinator for 20 years or so and was the Cubs' quality assurance coach last season. Pretty sure that was Creed's job on The Office so in my head, Castro = Creed.
So, here we are...the Giants have celebrated (again). The irresponsibly early predictions have named the Nationals champs of next season (again). And the Braves have serious question marks. Ervin Santana is a free agent and will try again to secure a long-term deal. The Braves will place a qualifying offer on him, which might scare off some teams that don't have a safe first round pick. Aaron Harang was a hell of a find last season (ThanksObama Wren), but the Braves probably will wish him the best on his future endeavors, successfully retiring a good number of hilarious memes involving him. Other free agents include Fredi lookalike Gerald Laird, all-around awful Brave Ryan Doumit, a broken (again) Gavin Floyd, and little jitterbug Emilio Bonifacio. Several arbitration cases remain, including Mike Minor, Jordan Walden, David Carpenter, and the trio of also broken (also again) pitchers Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, and Jonny Venters. And that doesn't even get into the $13M that Dan Uggla will get next season, along with a World Series ring for his play in San Fran that ultimately made them accept Joe Panik as their guy at second. You're welcome, Giants.
With all of the money already kinda dished out, trades and more trades seem to be the offseason strategy. Justin Upton and Jason Heyward are both entering the final year of their contracts while Evan Gattis seems to be without a position if Christian Bethancourt is the guy behind the plate next season. Oh...and yeah, there's the whole thing with B.J. Upton...can't forget that. On the plus side...
So, there certainly does remain a good deal to write about and I have several on-going series to wrap up and this offseason seems like a good time to do it. I'm back, kids. Time for the Braves to do some good because apparently, the Nationals are practically unbeatable.
Been a busy month or so in Atlanta. First, after the Braves were rudely informed that the 2014 playoffs wasn't something they needed to worry themselves with, general manager Frank Wren was fired along with his brother, some jackass assistant GM, and anyone who didn't immediately answer "shitty" to the question, "what kind of person was Wren?"
This was followed by a "exhaustive search" led by John Schuerholz, Robert Joseph Cox, and John Hart. This weeks-long quest scoured the landscape for the right guy who believed in the "Braves Way" and that Fredi Gonzalez was really a idiot savant when it came to baseball. The search truly was a interesting one with rumors of the some of the youngest and brightest minds in the game taking over to lead us all to a new dynasty. Just kidding...as you might know because we at Walk-Off Walk do not break news...a member of the search committee, Hart, was named the President of Baseball Operations because general manager didn't sound important enough. Fast rising GM candidate John Coppolella remains with the organization as the "right-hand guy" because that's far more valuable than a GM. Seriously, why can't we just do things easy?
A slew of moves that brought back many of the scouts that Wren "chased away" preceded Hart being named President Baseball Op, including the return of former Head Scout Roy Clark. This gave the AJC ample opportunity to further bury Wren as the absolute worst human since Bin Laden, which will certainly assist Wren in efforts to find employment.
Not lost in this mess was the news that one of the contentions Wren had with the upper crust in Atlanta was that he wanted to fire Fredi. Like an overbearing mother sticking up for her brat of a son, Bobby Cox came to Fredi's rescue and convinced Schuerholz that Fredi was the right guy in Atlanta. Hard to expect your general manager to do his job effectively when he has no control over who manages the team he puts together. Hart won't concern himself with that, though. He's a Presidente after all, not a lowly general manager.
While the Royals stole our hearts and Fox gave us a broadcasting booth that included both Joe Buck and Harold Reynolds, the Braves settled on their coaching staff that would earn our scorn. They picked up former Royal Kevin Seitzer to be the team's hitting coach for 2015. Seitzer is the kind of guy Fredi wants. Seitzer preached gap-to-gap hitting while avoiding strikeouts. This is good and all except that kind of approach doesn't reflect the team that has been built. Recently, the Braves also hired Jose Castro as the assistant hitting coach. Castro has the kind of common name that OOTP players get very used to seeing in the low minor leagues. Apparently, he's been a hitting coach or minor league coordinator for 20 years or so and was the Cubs' quality assurance coach last season. Pretty sure that was Creed's job on The Office so in my head, Castro = Creed.
So, here we are...the Giants have celebrated (again). The irresponsibly early predictions have named the Nationals champs of next season (again). And the Braves have serious question marks. Ervin Santana is a free agent and will try again to secure a long-term deal. The Braves will place a qualifying offer on him, which might scare off some teams that don't have a safe first round pick. Aaron Harang was a hell of a find last season (Thanks
With all of the money already kinda dished out, trades and more trades seem to be the offseason strategy. Justin Upton and Jason Heyward are both entering the final year of their contracts while Evan Gattis seems to be without a position if Christian Bethancourt is the guy behind the plate next season. Oh...and yeah, there's the whole thing with B.J. Upton...can't forget that. On the plus side...
So, there certainly does remain a good deal to write about and I have several on-going series to wrap up and this offseason seems like a good time to do it. I'm back, kids. Time for the Braves to do some good because apparently, the Nationals are practically unbeatable.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Why We Should Bat B.J. Upton Second (?)
So, I'm going to try to do the impossible and rationalize the decision to bat B.J. Upton in the two-spot. Let's see...I need my Book of Baseball Traditions, a nine-sided dice, and a small blunt object to hit myself with that might make me think I'm a bunny.
Excuse Reason #1: Upton is willing to take a walk. His 9.1 BB% is fourth on the team. This leads to the fourth most pitches per at-bats on the team at 3.7. That would appear to be a plus for batting second as the higher the spot in the order, the more pitches the pitcher is forced to throw, and the more likely that a fastball-throwing pitcher out of the pen will be feasted upon. The bad news is that despite a walk rate that is above league average, he's still seeing a below league average amount of pitches per at-bat. How does that happen? Simply, pitchers have little respect for Upton. Of members of the team, only a host of pitchers and Dan Uggla have received more pitches inside the strikezone than Upton. He gets about 13% more pitches in the zone than Freddie Freeman. Pitchers are well aware of Upton's struggles and that's why they are willing to throw, on average, every other pitch inside the zone and not worry that those pitches will turn into hits. Julio Teheran is a good hitting pitcher, but he's still a pitcher. He receives 55.6% of pitches inside the zone. That's 5% more than Upton, who is supposed to be a hitter of some sorts. I guess.
Well, okay, so his willingness to take a walk doesn't really help him. How about this? Upton seems to hit his best batting second this season. He has started 54 of 67 starts in the two-hole and is hitting .211/.286/.336 and yes, that is his best number of any spot. He went 0-for-3 while in the fifth spot in one start and .171/.227/.317 batting sixth in twelve starts there. A manager's job is to put guys in spots that will help them perform at their best. But...BUT...a manager's primary job is to win ballgames. The average National League second-place hitter is hitting .263/.330/.408. Put it this way - in 73% of the Braves' games this season, Upton has started in the two-hole. Atlanta has the lowest average, third lowest OBP, and fifth lowest SLG of two-spot hitters in the majors, most of which come with Melvin Emmanuel batting behind the leadoff hitter. Even if Upton's best numbers come with him hitting second, it's still one of the worst marks in baseball and yet, only six other players have been in the two-spot more than Upton.
Damn, so walking and his personal performance in the two spot aren't good excuses. Oh, wait, I know, Upton has speed! This is very true. Upton leads the Braves with 11 steals in an efficient 14 opportunities. That's something no one can take from him. And while Upton is obviously the better base stealer, the #5 hitter (Jason Heyward) is 9-for-12 while the #6 hitter (Justin Upton) is successful in all six attempts.
Wait, wasn't the new glasses supposed to be the key? Well, he's posted a .621 OPS since wearing glasses for the first time on April 26th, up from .578 before the glasses. That's something I guess. Not sure in what way that helps his case, but the glasses have appeared to help.
I'm running out of any rationale to bat the elder Upton second. Oh, how about that he bats right-handed to split up the lefties? Wait, so does his brother. Actually, so does Andrelton Simmons who is more productive than Upton and Simmons has been disappointing. Chris Johnson would be a better option and the Lord of BABIP never walks. In fact, if you took what is now the regular eight, you couldn't find a worse option to bat second than B.J. Upton.
Yet, as the Braves finish up a four-game set with the Nationals, where is Upton? Batting second. There are stories about how the Braves might look for ways to bench Upton, yet there he is. Batting second. The Braves offense has scored 618 runs, ninth most in the NL and has the 12th "best" OBP in the National League, numbers that often correlate with one another. And still, B.J. Upton's name is written in ink batting second. It's a bad joke at this point. More, it's almost like Fredi Gonzalez has put his feet (along with his head) in the mud and said that Upton batting second must work despite the evidence that is overwhelming against him.
Either that or Fredi's just trolling us. Because I've looked, Fredi, and I don't see what you apparently see. More, I only see one more example of bad management. Maybe Fredi has arbitrary dates in mind such as "if BJ doesn't start hitting before the All-Star Break..." While terrible rationale, at least it's something. It says "I have a plan. A crappy one, but it's a plan." Right now, this refusal to move Upton seems closer to the reasoning why he batted the pitcher 8th. He stumbled onto a better idea as you want to give your best hitters (typically they bat at the top of the lineup) opportunities with a better hitter than the pitcher batting ninth, but his quick turnaround on that screamed of the old managing stand-by. When struggling, just make a change to mix things up.
Well, let me speak Fredi's language. Your offense is struggling and you have no production in the two-spot. Just mix it up and bat Upton anywhere else. Except in the top five. That wouldn't be mixed up enough.
Well, okay, so his willingness to take a walk doesn't really help him. How about this? Upton seems to hit his best batting second this season. He has started 54 of 67 starts in the two-hole and is hitting .211/.286/.336 and yes, that is his best number of any spot. He went 0-for-3 while in the fifth spot in one start and .171/.227/.317 batting sixth in twelve starts there. A manager's job is to put guys in spots that will help them perform at their best. But...BUT...a manager's primary job is to win ballgames. The average National League second-place hitter is hitting .263/.330/.408. Put it this way - in 73% of the Braves' games this season, Upton has started in the two-hole. Atlanta has the lowest average, third lowest OBP, and fifth lowest SLG of two-spot hitters in the majors, most of which come with Melvin Emmanuel batting behind the leadoff hitter. Even if Upton's best numbers come with him hitting second, it's still one of the worst marks in baseball and yet, only six other players have been in the two-spot more than Upton.
Damn, so walking and his personal performance in the two spot aren't good excuses. Oh, wait, I know, Upton has speed! This is very true. Upton leads the Braves with 11 steals in an efficient 14 opportunities. That's something no one can take from him. And while Upton is obviously the better base stealer, the #5 hitter (Jason Heyward) is 9-for-12 while the #6 hitter (Justin Upton) is successful in all six attempts.
Wait, wasn't the new glasses supposed to be the key? Well, he's posted a .621 OPS since wearing glasses for the first time on April 26th, up from .578 before the glasses. That's something I guess. Not sure in what way that helps his case, but the glasses have appeared to help.
I'm running out of any rationale to bat the elder Upton second. Oh, how about that he bats right-handed to split up the lefties? Wait, so does his brother. Actually, so does Andrelton Simmons who is more productive than Upton and Simmons has been disappointing. Chris Johnson would be a better option and the Lord of BABIP never walks. In fact, if you took what is now the regular eight, you couldn't find a worse option to bat second than B.J. Upton.
Yet, as the Braves finish up a four-game set with the Nationals, where is Upton? Batting second. There are stories about how the Braves might look for ways to bench Upton, yet there he is. Batting second. The Braves offense has scored 618 runs, ninth most in the NL and has the 12th "best" OBP in the National League, numbers that often correlate with one another. And still, B.J. Upton's name is written in ink batting second. It's a bad joke at this point. More, it's almost like Fredi Gonzalez has put his feet (along with his head) in the mud and said that Upton batting second must work despite the evidence that is overwhelming against him.
Either that or Fredi's just trolling us. Because I've looked, Fredi, and I don't see what you apparently see. More, I only see one more example of bad management. Maybe Fredi has arbitrary dates in mind such as "if BJ doesn't start hitting before the All-Star Break..." While terrible rationale, at least it's something. It says "I have a plan. A crappy one, but it's a plan." Right now, this refusal to move Upton seems closer to the reasoning why he batted the pitcher 8th. He stumbled onto a better idea as you want to give your best hitters (typically they bat at the top of the lineup) opportunities with a better hitter than the pitcher batting ninth, but his quick turnaround on that screamed of the old managing stand-by. When struggling, just make a change to mix things up.
Well, let me speak Fredi's language. Your offense is struggling and you have no production in the two-spot. Just mix it up and bat Upton anywhere else. Except in the top five. That wouldn't be mixed up enough.
Monday, June 9, 2014
Fredi's Flaws
This weekend, the Braves fell in back-to-back games to drop a series to the Arizona Diamondbacks. It didn't have to happen like that, of course. Craig Kimbrel, fresh off a franchise record, blew a save in Saturday's game. Jason Heyward gave the Braves the lead in extras and they blew it again and ultimately lost. On Sunday, the Braves had a 2-0 lead after six-and-a-half with the help of a two-run homerun from Justin Upton and some lucky pitching from Aaron Harang, who had given up only two hits, but five walks in six innings.
The outing continued a string of underwhelming performances for Harang, whose start to the year had him the front-runner for the Comeback Player of the Year. However, since falling back to Earth on April 30th against the Marlins, Harang has a 5.01 ERA with outings that aren't often awful, but rarely that great. Basically, he's pitching like the fifth starter the Braves thought they would be getting. In his last two starts, he has walked ten in 12.2 ING. That won't get you very far even if you don't give up many hits.
However, the loss has been placed on the decision-making of Fredi Gonzalez. Seemingly every loss is put on Gonzalez and often, the criticism is either overstated or not even justified. Gonzalez is a manager, not the guy with the ball in his hand or the bat on his shoulders. Players have to play.
Nevertheless, in my opinion, the manager's primary job is to put his players in position to produce and succeed. Playing a bad defensive outfielder in center field might sometimes be a necessity, but it's often bad managing as well. Starting a veteran over a rookie simply because of "experience" might also be bad managing. In Sunday's game, the Braves manager's strategic flaws came to a head in an ugly couple of decisions.
On Saturday night, Gonzalez started Uggla. I went over my issues with that decision, but you could justify the decision if you badly wanted to do so. On Sunday, what was the justification for the decision to allow Harang to bat in the seventh inning? To set the scene, Atlanta was leading 2-0 and with two outs, Gerald Laird, who was getting the getaway start he often receives behind the plate, doubled to bring up the pitcher's spot with a chance to add a key third run. However, Gonzalez sent up Harang to bat for himself. With nearly 100 pitches in the tank and several disaster innings narrowly avoided, Gonzalez could have gone to a full bench, but chose instead to bank on Harang.
He struck out. Don't mistake me. Gonzalez wasn't banking on Harang provided an ounce of offense, he was counting on Harang to throw another inning.
In the bottom of the seventh, Aaron Hill rocketed a single to center. Gonzalez could have gone to the pen at that point. He could have played the "short leash" shtick that truly deserves to be retired. Either be confident in your decisions or get out of the business. You are paid to make decisions and letting the players make those decisions is gutless.
But even that managing process would have been better than sticking with Harang. Gonzalez felt the bullpen couldn't get the out and there is some truth to that as the bullpen has struggled of late, especially David Carpenter. Nevertheless, Harang, who labored through six innings with runners on all day, was not effective enough to deserve to be in there.
David Peralta hit a two-run homer to tie it up. Gonzalez still didn't get Harang out and he walked his final batter. Finally, Gonzalez acted, but his decisions didn't help either. Luis Avilan walked a batter and was gifted an out via a sacrifice bunt before David Hale was brought in to stop the bleeding. Imagine that...a guy who was a starter and now is your long reliever brought in to stop a rally. I know it sounds like Gonzalez was damned if he did and damned if he didn't, but it's much easier to score from first than home and putting the added stress on your pen to strand runners when you don't have to is a sign of a manager that lacks confidence and fortitude.
Despite all of this, the Braves had a chance to win in the end, but weren't able to scratch across one more run. However, they should have never been in that situation. You're supposed to win games when you have a two-run lead and nine outs to get. You're also supposed to make sensible decisions, including removing a starter that has struggled to locate. The Braves are a very good team. Most of the time, they will play like it. But their manager needs to play his part, however small, and decisions that are made or, worse, not made like what we saw in Sunday's game are concerning. Gonzalez is a graduate of the Bobby Cox School of Managing. However, he doesn't have a trio of aces to glossy over his poor decisions. Gonzalez must put his players in position to succeed. He failed at that Sunday. Hopefully, Monday is a different story.
The outing continued a string of underwhelming performances for Harang, whose start to the year had him the front-runner for the Comeback Player of the Year. However, since falling back to Earth on April 30th against the Marlins, Harang has a 5.01 ERA with outings that aren't often awful, but rarely that great. Basically, he's pitching like the fifth starter the Braves thought they would be getting. In his last two starts, he has walked ten in 12.2 ING. That won't get you very far even if you don't give up many hits.
However, the loss has been placed on the decision-making of Fredi Gonzalez. Seemingly every loss is put on Gonzalez and often, the criticism is either overstated or not even justified. Gonzalez is a manager, not the guy with the ball in his hand or the bat on his shoulders. Players have to play.
Nevertheless, in my opinion, the manager's primary job is to put his players in position to produce and succeed. Playing a bad defensive outfielder in center field might sometimes be a necessity, but it's often bad managing as well. Starting a veteran over a rookie simply because of "experience" might also be bad managing. In Sunday's game, the Braves manager's strategic flaws came to a head in an ugly couple of decisions.
On Saturday night, Gonzalez started Uggla. I went over my issues with that decision, but you could justify the decision if you badly wanted to do so. On Sunday, what was the justification for the decision to allow Harang to bat in the seventh inning? To set the scene, Atlanta was leading 2-0 and with two outs, Gerald Laird, who was getting the getaway start he often receives behind the plate, doubled to bring up the pitcher's spot with a chance to add a key third run. However, Gonzalez sent up Harang to bat for himself. With nearly 100 pitches in the tank and several disaster innings narrowly avoided, Gonzalez could have gone to a full bench, but chose instead to bank on Harang.
He struck out. Don't mistake me. Gonzalez wasn't banking on Harang provided an ounce of offense, he was counting on Harang to throw another inning.
In the bottom of the seventh, Aaron Hill rocketed a single to center. Gonzalez could have gone to the pen at that point. He could have played the "short leash" shtick that truly deserves to be retired. Either be confident in your decisions or get out of the business. You are paid to make decisions and letting the players make those decisions is gutless.
But even that managing process would have been better than sticking with Harang. Gonzalez felt the bullpen couldn't get the out and there is some truth to that as the bullpen has struggled of late, especially David Carpenter. Nevertheless, Harang, who labored through six innings with runners on all day, was not effective enough to deserve to be in there.
David Peralta hit a two-run homer to tie it up. Gonzalez still didn't get Harang out and he walked his final batter. Finally, Gonzalez acted, but his decisions didn't help either. Luis Avilan walked a batter and was gifted an out via a sacrifice bunt before David Hale was brought in to stop the bleeding. Imagine that...a guy who was a starter and now is your long reliever brought in to stop a rally. I know it sounds like Gonzalez was damned if he did and damned if he didn't, but it's much easier to score from first than home and putting the added stress on your pen to strand runners when you don't have to is a sign of a manager that lacks confidence and fortitude.
Despite all of this, the Braves had a chance to win in the end, but weren't able to scratch across one more run. However, they should have never been in that situation. You're supposed to win games when you have a two-run lead and nine outs to get. You're also supposed to make sensible decisions, including removing a starter that has struggled to locate. The Braves are a very good team. Most of the time, they will play like it. But their manager needs to play his part, however small, and decisions that are made or, worse, not made like what we saw in Sunday's game are concerning. Gonzalez is a graduate of the Bobby Cox School of Managing. However, he doesn't have a trio of aces to glossy over his poor decisions. Gonzalez must put his players in position to succeed. He failed at that Sunday. Hopefully, Monday is a different story.
Sunday, June 8, 2014
Just Call It Already!
There is an old saying and please forgive my coarse language...but shit or get off the pot. Crude, I know, but I have found it to be an accurate idiom. Why mention this? Because last night, the Braves started Dan Uggla at second base. You could see the wheels in Fredi Gonzalez's head as he made this decision. Not only was a left-hand starter scheduled for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but it was Wade Miley. Uggla had faced Miley five times and had a pair of hits, a sacrifice fly, and a homerun off the Arizona southpaw. Surely, this would be the right matchup for Uggla, the Braves manager must have thought. This justifies keeping Uggla on the roster. Rest the hot Tommy La Stella and go with Papa Uggs.
But here is the problem. Giving a guy nine starts since April 27th isn't going to help a player such as Uggla who isn't seeing the ball well. Burying a guy on the bench is not going to help someone's timing. Forgetting about his existence isn't going to make him a better player.
I actually love Uggla. The power he brings (or brought) to the position. The hustle he provides. The sabermetric value when he was truly a representation of the Three True Outcomes. His body blocks. The parody account of him on twitter. And generally, he seems like a good guy who has never had bad things said about him from the clubhouse point-of-view. Despite riding the bench for the first time in his life, Uggla has seemed to take it in stride, accepting responsibility, and not complain. That's admirable.
If this was an American League team, maybe you keep Uggla around for pinch-hitting and the occasional DH at-bat. But this is a National League squad and surprisingly enough, this is a National League bench that Uggla sits on six days a week. He's a limited defender, both as a mediocre defensive second baseman, and a guy who hasn't played a different position than second base in about a decade. It's not like Uggla is getting time at first or left field. He's pretty much stuck to second base and it's difficult to say that the time off has hurt his defensive ability in the field, but it certainly hasn't helped anything.
So, Atlanta...Liberty Media...John Schuerholz...Terry McQuirk...Frank Wren...it's time to shit or get off the pot.
If La Stella is your starter at second base and, for the record, he should be, keeping Uggla around is ridiculous. Uggla provides next to nothing to your bench and is only getting worse. And the baseball Gods seem to hate him right now. His pair of errors last night came off strange plays that seemed to find Uggla. Regardless, the chances of Uggla suddenly becoming a productive member of the Atlanta Braves this season is very, VERY low. If the Braves aren't going to play him, they need to cut him. Why continue to prolong what is painfully obvious for everyone, including Uggla most likely?
Oh...yeah...that's right. The roughly $21M+ that he owed from now until the end of next season. But that money is already earmarked. The Braves are going to pay it regardless of whether Uggla is still on the roster or playing for the Wichita Wingnuts. Will Atlanta receive proper production for that salary? Hell no. Uggla has OPS'd .711 with the Braves. That ship has sailed. Uggla's failed to live up to his contract and nothing will fix that. So, move on. Let Uggla try to start over somewhere else. Bring up another player that can provide a skill that increases this team's ability to churn out wins. If Uggla's not your guy (and he's not), screw the money invested. It's time to move on.
I'll miss Papa Uggs.
But it's time to make a good baseball decision.
But here is the problem. Giving a guy nine starts since April 27th isn't going to help a player such as Uggla who isn't seeing the ball well. Burying a guy on the bench is not going to help someone's timing. Forgetting about his existence isn't going to make him a better player.
I actually love Uggla. The power he brings (or brought) to the position. The hustle he provides. The sabermetric value when he was truly a representation of the Three True Outcomes. His body blocks. The parody account of him on twitter. And generally, he seems like a good guy who has never had bad things said about him from the clubhouse point-of-view. Despite riding the bench for the first time in his life, Uggla has seemed to take it in stride, accepting responsibility, and not complain. That's admirable.
If this was an American League team, maybe you keep Uggla around for pinch-hitting and the occasional DH at-bat. But this is a National League squad and surprisingly enough, this is a National League bench that Uggla sits on six days a week. He's a limited defender, both as a mediocre defensive second baseman, and a guy who hasn't played a different position than second base in about a decade. It's not like Uggla is getting time at first or left field. He's pretty much stuck to second base and it's difficult to say that the time off has hurt his defensive ability in the field, but it certainly hasn't helped anything.
So, Atlanta...Liberty Media...John Schuerholz...Terry McQuirk...Frank Wren...it's time to shit or get off the pot.
If La Stella is your starter at second base and, for the record, he should be, keeping Uggla around is ridiculous. Uggla provides next to nothing to your bench and is only getting worse. And the baseball Gods seem to hate him right now. His pair of errors last night came off strange plays that seemed to find Uggla. Regardless, the chances of Uggla suddenly becoming a productive member of the Atlanta Braves this season is very, VERY low. If the Braves aren't going to play him, they need to cut him. Why continue to prolong what is painfully obvious for everyone, including Uggla most likely?
Oh...yeah...that's right. The roughly $21M+ that he owed from now until the end of next season. But that money is already earmarked. The Braves are going to pay it regardless of whether Uggla is still on the roster or playing for the Wichita Wingnuts. Will Atlanta receive proper production for that salary? Hell no. Uggla has OPS'd .711 with the Braves. That ship has sailed. Uggla's failed to live up to his contract and nothing will fix that. So, move on. Let Uggla try to start over somewhere else. Bring up another player that can provide a skill that increases this team's ability to churn out wins. If Uggla's not your guy (and he's not), screw the money invested. It's time to move on.
I'll miss Papa Uggs.
But it's time to make a good baseball decision.
Monday, May 26, 2014
A little bit on a Memorial Day loss
Today's loss stung a little. Up 6-1 on the reeling Boston Red Sox, losers of ten straight, the Braves had the game well in hand as they entered the fifth. However, Ervin Santana nibbled and got into a bases loaded situation that began with a two-out walk to Daniel Nava. Santana got ahead of Dustin Pedroia, but served up a meatball that Pedroia ripped to left for a pair of runs. David Ortiz followed with a jack. After a lengthy rain delay, the BoSox added two more and won 8-6.
It was a miserable way to fall to pieces, but things got worse after the game. This comes from Grant McAuley, the Braves reporter for 929 The Game.
Why in the world would a pitcher's win matter? The team win is all that matters. The team win is, at the end of the day, what decides which teams go to the playoffs and which stay home. Ervin Santana's win-loss record is a non-factor.
And being a veteran is a worthless, not to mention inconsistent, distinction. You went with Alex Wood and Ian Thomas as the next two out of the pen. So, a veteran if pitching with a three-run lead, youngster if pitching in a tie game? What kind of backwards thinking is that?
I'm not the type to second-guess every Fredi Gonzalez decision. In fact, I would argue that managers rarely matter, especially in the regular decision, and they are only acting in consultation with their coaches and a previously laid out coaching philosophy. And generally speaking, I believe most fans convince themselves that the manager is the problem over the playing talent, available options, and just sheer luck.
And it's not really the result of leaving Santana in that pisses me off. At the time, sure, but that's gone soon after. It would be a different situation had Fredi came out and said, "I thought Santana's velocity was good, but he missed his location and we suffered as a result." Or something more cliche-filled and less eloquent. You can be critical of that, but ultimately, going to the pen doesn't mean a different or even better result would have occurred. However, what Fredi is essentially saying is "I refuse to make a decision." He refuses to make a managerial decision, depending on his player to sink-or-swim, and worrying too much about the wrong "win" stat. That's not managing. That's letting the players manage your decision-making. Even Santana came out later and said it was Fredi's call so why not make a call? You believe in Santana? Make the call. You believe in the bullpen? Make the call. Don't let your decision come down to "shit, he hasn't finished the fifth. We got the lead so I gotta stick with him."
But this is Fredi Gonzalez, a graduate of the Bobby Cox School of Management. Cox is headed to the Hall of Fame this summer, but he has one ring for a reason. Oh, we can talk about how certain players didn't play up big in the postseason and the bullpens were too often ignored, but Cox did have a dream rotation throughout the 90's and some very effective players in the lineup. Why one ring? Because Cox is a player's manager. That makes him a superb guy in the clubhouse and his players will fight for him and speak up for him, but in moments where on-the-fly strategy matters, he became a mental midget.
Fredi is the same way. Rather than make the call, let the players decide it for you. Watch Fredi's bullpen management in the middle innings. "My starter's nearing 90-100 pitches, but I don't want to make a decision. I got it, I'll warm up a pair of guys and wait for my starter to put runners on before getting off my ass." It's gutless managing and it's the kind of stuff that leads to losses.
The Braves are a talented team and they should be there at the end of the season. They need their manager to make decisions to win the game, not give his players a chance to pad their numbers. They need a manager with brass balls, not cowardly avoiding hurting his player's ego.
Clubhouse management is nice. Makes those long road trips a lot easier. Guess what else does? Good results.
It was a miserable way to fall to pieces, but things got worse after the game. This comes from Grant McAuley, the Braves reporter for 929 The Game.
#Braves Fredi Gonzalez said he stuck with Ervin Santana vs. David Ortiz in the 5th to go with veteran match-up, give his SP a chance to win.
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) May 26, 2014
...Why in the world would a pitcher's win matter? The team win is all that matters. The team win is, at the end of the day, what decides which teams go to the playoffs and which stay home. Ervin Santana's win-loss record is a non-factor.
And being a veteran is a worthless, not to mention inconsistent, distinction. You went with Alex Wood and Ian Thomas as the next two out of the pen. So, a veteran if pitching with a three-run lead, youngster if pitching in a tie game? What kind of backwards thinking is that?
I'm not the type to second-guess every Fredi Gonzalez decision. In fact, I would argue that managers rarely matter, especially in the regular decision, and they are only acting in consultation with their coaches and a previously laid out coaching philosophy. And generally speaking, I believe most fans convince themselves that the manager is the problem over the playing talent, available options, and just sheer luck.
And it's not really the result of leaving Santana in that pisses me off. At the time, sure, but that's gone soon after. It would be a different situation had Fredi came out and said, "I thought Santana's velocity was good, but he missed his location and we suffered as a result." Or something more cliche-filled and less eloquent. You can be critical of that, but ultimately, going to the pen doesn't mean a different or even better result would have occurred. However, what Fredi is essentially saying is "I refuse to make a decision." He refuses to make a managerial decision, depending on his player to sink-or-swim, and worrying too much about the wrong "win" stat. That's not managing. That's letting the players manage your decision-making. Even Santana came out later and said it was Fredi's call so why not make a call? You believe in Santana? Make the call. You believe in the bullpen? Make the call. Don't let your decision come down to "shit, he hasn't finished the fifth. We got the lead so I gotta stick with him."
But this is Fredi Gonzalez, a graduate of the Bobby Cox School of Management. Cox is headed to the Hall of Fame this summer, but he has one ring for a reason. Oh, we can talk about how certain players didn't play up big in the postseason and the bullpens were too often ignored, but Cox did have a dream rotation throughout the 90's and some very effective players in the lineup. Why one ring? Because Cox is a player's manager. That makes him a superb guy in the clubhouse and his players will fight for him and speak up for him, but in moments where on-the-fly strategy matters, he became a mental midget.
Fredi is the same way. Rather than make the call, let the players decide it for you. Watch Fredi's bullpen management in the middle innings. "My starter's nearing 90-100 pitches, but I don't want to make a decision. I got it, I'll warm up a pair of guys and wait for my starter to put runners on before getting off my ass." It's gutless managing and it's the kind of stuff that leads to losses.
The Braves are a talented team and they should be there at the end of the season. They need their manager to make decisions to win the game, not give his players a chance to pad their numbers. They need a manager with brass balls, not cowardly avoiding hurting his player's ego.
Clubhouse management is nice. Makes those long road trips a lot easier. Guess what else does? Good results.
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