How are the guys the Braves got rid of are doing?

Since the end of the 2016 season, the Braves have finalized nine trades while losing a few players via waivers. With roughly half of the season already finished, I wanted to look back at the players the team gave up and how they are doing in their new surroundings. Do the Braves miss them or do they miss the Braves more?

November 2, 2016
Ryan Weber selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Before the 2016 World Series ended later that night, the Braves lost a right-hander who had made 21 appearances and seven starts with them over the previous two seasons. Weber was always a non-prospect - a guy with AAAA stuff and more guts than talent. He opened this year with 31.2 dominant frames in Triple-A for Tacoma before earning a callup. He was doing alright (3 H, 1 ER) through 3.2 innings, but left the game with a biceps injury. Actually, to be more specific, a "stretch of the musculocutaneous nerve." That sounds painful. He's been sidelined for a month-and-a-half and I have yet to see word on a return.

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November 28, 2016
Traded Max Povse and Robert Whalen to the Seattle Mariners. Received a player to be named later and Alex Jackson (minors). The Seattle Mariners sent Tyler Pike (minors) (December 9, 2016) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.

-The Mariners are a common theme in this little update. Povse returned to Double-A to begin this season after eleven solid starts in the Southern League. He was less impressive in the Texas League, though, and his walks were "sky-high" relative to his usual pinpoint location. After 39 innings (he missed nearly a month on the DL), Povse was brought to the majors two weeks ago. His first outing out of the pen was horrid, but he threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Angels. Meanwhile, Whalen, who made five starts with the big league club last year, has been a bag of awful this season. In 48.1 innings in the hard-hitting PCL, he has a 6.33 ERA. In five of his nine starts, he's given up at least four earned runs. Mixed in there are two spot appearances in the majors, including a start. He was dinged up for five runs in a late May loss to the Red Sox and went two scoreless innings in mid-June out of the pen against the Rangers. He's back in Triple-A and will look to end a streak of five consecutive starts with allowing at least one homerun the next time out.

December 1, 2016
Traded Luke Dykstra (minors), Chris Ellis (minors) and John Gant to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Jaime Garcia.

-Some bemoaned the loss of Dykstra despite the fact that Dykstra found a way to hit over .300 last year in more than 340 PA with a sub-.700 OPS and less than ten steals. I mention all of that because since 1901, only five people were able to do that in the majors and the last time it happened was 1943 with Doc Cramer. This season, Dykstra has been terrible for Palm Beach in the Florida State League, playing against many of his former teammates on the Fire Frogs. Ellis, who spent only one year in the organization after coming over with Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade, has been woeful as well while splitting time between Memphis and Springfield. His ERA is only under 7.00 because his work at Springfield is less-awful. John Gant opened the year on the DL and has only made eight appearances on the year. In seven starts in Memphis, he's been pretty decent. Not great, but compared to the other guys the Cardinals got for Garcia, Gant's been amazing. He's also appeared once out of the bullpen for the Cardinals. he gave up two solo homers in 3.1 ING.

December 8, 2016
Traded Brady Feigl (minors) and Tyrell Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Received Luke Jackson.

-A Spring Training arm that nearly made the team in 2015 before needing Tommy John surgery, Feigl made six appearances last year in the rookie leagues as part of his rehab. This season, he has pitched 22 times - mostly in the Carolina League - with mixed success. The strikeout numbers are solid and the control is magnificent, but when he's not missing bats, players are finding holes. He's also been miserable once promoted to Frisco to begin June. Jenkins didn't last long in the Rangers' system. A few weeks later, they lost him on waivers to the Reds and he spent about as much time in their system before the Padres got him off waivers. One of last year's fan favorites has been just bad with El Paso in the PCL. He gave up 14 homers last year between Triple-A and the majors. He's surrendered 16 already this year in just as many starts. His strikeout-to-walk rate is nearly 1.

January 11, 2017
Traded Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith to the Seattle Mariners. Received Thomas Burrows (minors) and Luiz Gohara (minors).

-Losing Simmons made me sad as I had been a quick fan of his in 2014. He made it back to the majors for seven games last year and was a potential x-factor for this year's bullpen before the trade. However, the prospect of acquiring Gohara was too great. Unfortunately, Simmons has been DL'd the whole season with a right flexor strain. The last I heard, he was throwing again, but has yet to start a rehab assignment and likely won't be in the mix until late July at the earliest. Smith spent a few hours in the Mariners' system before being packaged in a deal for Tampa's Drew Smyly. He's spent much of the year in the minors or on the DL, but when he's been in the majors, Smith has been pretty successful. With Kevin Kiermaier out for much of the foreseeable future, center field belongs to Smith, who's OBP is roughly 70 points higher than it was last year with the Braves. His stolen base percentage continues to need work (9-of-13), but he's been a nice fit in Tampa and one of the few ex-Braves on this list to look better than he did with the Braves.

January 13, 2017
Traded player to be named or cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Micah Johnson.

-The real winner of this deal was the Braves' fans who now know who Johnson is and follow him on Twitter.

January 26, 2017
Tuffy Gosewisch selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Jesus, the Mariners love ex-Braves - even those that never suit up for Atlanta. Earlier in the offseason, Gosewisch had been picked up off waivers from the D'Backs to compete with Anthony Recker. That didn't happen as the Braves signed Kurt Suzuki and DFA'd Gosewisch. He's been around his career norms in 41 games in Triple-A for the Mariners. He also spent a few weeks in the majors where he went just 2-for-28 with 14 K's. Ouchie.

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February 12, 2017
Traded Carlos Portuondo (minors) and Andrew McKirahan to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Brandon Phillips.

-Not included here was the $13M the Reds sent to pay for Phillips contract, leaving the Braves on the hook for just a million bucks. McKirahan was a former Rule 5 pick who spent too much of his rookie season on the inactive list after being suspended for PED. He then spent 2016 on the mend after a second Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this season and has spent some of his time on Twitter railing against vaccines. As for Portuondo, a Cuban-born right-hander, he pitched once and was released. Man, the Reds really wanted to get rid of Brandon Phillips.

March 6, 2017
Christian Walker selected by the Cincinnati Reds off waivers.

-The Braves were the second-of-four teams to get a look at Walker this spring. He started with the Orioles, the team that drafted him and originally promoted him to the majors in both 2014 and 2015. In late February, the Braves claimed him only to lose him two weeks later to the Reds. In late March, he was again on the move - this time to the Diamondbacks. He's bashed the PCL since with a slugging percentage well over .550. He's played mostly first, though he made a cameo at third and also logged a bit of time in left field. Because of how bad the Braves' bench has been - especially early - this one kind of hurts.

April 24, 2017
Traded David Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received player to be named or cash.

-You don't want to read about this. David Hernandez has been excellent for the Angels. Absolutely filthy. He's picked up over a K an inning, walked nearly nobody, and his FIP is absurdly in the 1.50-range. He's not this good, but he's definitely pitching like he is and the Braves are wondering why they just didn't bring him to the majors after all.

April 27, 2017
Chase d'Arnaud selected by the Boston Red Sox off waivers.

-There were people who were upset about this. I like to call these people the ones who are easily convinced by a month of success. D'Arnaud looked good briefly last year, but ended with a .245/.317/.335 split. His biggest value came from being able to play multiple positions and swipe a few bases. The Braves already had Emilio Bonifacio for that! (Too soon?) Cutting d'Arnaud, in late April, the utility player landed in Boston. After a month in their organization, he was waived and went to the Padres. He's been straight up awful with the bat and has played a little too often at shortstop, but when you're the Padres and you have Erick Aybar, that's to be expected.

May 8, 2017
Traded Kevin Chapman and cash to the Minnesota Twins. Received Danny Santana.

-Santana has had a few hits here-and-there but he's basically been the same guy who disappointed with the Twins last year. Meanwhile, Chapman, who the Braves added on waivers near the end of spring training, spent about a month in the Twins' organization for their International League club in Rochester. He gave up seven earned runs in 11.1 ING, which was actually an improvement over his time with Gwinnett. He was released a little more than a month after the trade.

May 20, 2017
Purchased Enrique Burgos from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Traded Juan Yepez (minors) to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Matt Adams and cash.

-Burgos has been lights-out with Gwinnett and Adams hasn't been so bad either, but this article is about the players who the Braves gave up. Yepez hit .275/.309/.387 with a homer over 36 games with Rome before the trade. He left the SALLY League and landed in the Midwest League with Peoria. The two leagues are nearly identical in offensive production and while Dozer Park is a bit more homer-friendly than State Mutual Stadium, it's not exactly a big homerun park. Still, Yepez has bashed five homers since the trade, one fewer than he hit during 121 games in the Braves' organization. That said, he's still struggled to the tune of a .298 OBP.

Overall, outside of Mallex Smith - who doesn't have a place in Atlanta - and David Hernandez (sniff), the Braves haven't seen much success this season by the players they traded or waived. Some of that is luck, but a good deal of it is talent evaluation and coaching - something the Braves excel with at the minor league level.

Send Me An Angel

By Eltiempo10 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

Was that title enough of an earworm or is it too obscure? If so, I'm perhaps older than I thought.

The Atlanta Braves have more depth heading into 2017 than they did in either of the last two seasons, but the bench still needs work. The addition of Sean Rodriguez definitely helps as it likely means either Rodriguez or Jace Peterson will be on the bench on most days and both are borderline major league starters. But outside of either one of those players, what will this bench look like?

Chase D'Arnaud will be around, but do the Braves really want to depend too much on a player with a sub-.600 OPS in the majors? Kurt Suzuki will take up a spot as well, though he's hardly much of a threat with the bat. With that in mind, the Braves could use some extra offense. Depending on whether they go with an eight-man bullpen or not - and I hope the latter - the Braves still head into spring training with at least a spot open for grabs and as many as three.

A potential platoon of Rio Ruiz/Adonis Garcia could man one of those spots, though their lack of versatility could make that option a little less desirable for the Braves especially if they are going with a four-man bench. Atlanta has also apparently flirted with the idea of bringing back Jeff Francoeur and/or Kelly Johnson, but even if they did that, there are still questions about this bench that need to be addressed. Of the players I've already mentioned, only D'Arnaud has played a passable shortstop in the majors, which only helps his case and hurts the offensive potential of this bench. Furthermore, who is second on the depth chart to play center field?

Right now, probably Rodriguez. And why not? He's played nearly 60 innings in center during his career. Clearly, he can handle the position for a few days, right? And if not, there's always Peterson. He slammed into a wall last year after all. That's about all I have to say about that.

Listen, I love Ender Inciarte, but he's hit the DL in each of the last three years. That's too short of a sample size to say he's likely to do it again in 2017, but the trends certainly aren't in his favor. If such an event happens - and hopefully it's only for a couple of weeks if it does - who plays center field? Would you believe the choice might be Emilio Bonifacio or Mel Rojas Jr.? Not excited about that? Well, there's also Xavier Avery. Who? I'll give you a minute or two to read this quick introduction I wrote on Avery a few weeks ago when the Braves added him. I'll wait.

Done? Maybe Rojas or Avery satisfies you as a deep depth option. Maybe Bonifacio isn't that bad (he is). Maybe you think Inciarte will stay healthy all season. But, if you're like me, you'd like a bit more depth. The kind of depth the Braves had before they traded away Mallex Smith.

Back to the title of this post. Real Life's "Send Me An Angel" was a fun 80's hit about asking the heavens for love.  In this case, all I want is a fourth outfielder. Regardless, John Coppolella, send me an Angel............Pagan. Also, if that's not his walk-up music, someone really failed at their job.

Angel Pagan won't make the Braves winners in 2017, but he will make them a little better. Since his last big season in 2012, he's been between a 1.4 and 2.1 fWAR player in three of the last four years. To put that into context, in the last four seasons, Nick Markakis has been worth 4.9 fWAR and Matt Kemp has been worth 2.1 fWAR. Same time frame, Pagan has been a 4.5 fWAR player. By the way, he'll be paid a fraction of the cost as those other two.

To be fair, injuries have sapped Pagan of much of his speed that made him a yearly 30-steal threat. With that said, he still swiped 15 bases last year, one fewer than Inciarte and Smith, who led the Braves. Pagan's also been much healthier of late, having posted back-to-back 500+ PA campaigns after failing to do so in the two seasons prior. Pagan also has been successful throughout his career with the bat compared to his center field peers. He finished last year with a .324 wOBA (vs. .322 career) and 105 wRC+ (vs. 103 career). Though 35 years-old, nothing in his numbers would seem to make one believe that a decline was imminent.

I should also mention that as a switch-hitter, Pagan is a perfect fourth outfielder. He gives his manager flexibility to try to schedule off days for Markakis and Inciarte against tougher left-handers and give Kemp a day off against a nasty righty.

To be fair a second time, Pagan's defense in center field has deteriorated along with his speed. Outside of 2011, the defensive metrics have never loved Pagan's D to begin with and it's only gotten worse. If the Braves need him to play much longer than a few weeks in center field, they are probably asking for too much. Pagan played a lot of left field last year and the metrics agreed that it was a good move for him. That would give the Braves a late-inning defensive caddy for Kemp who won't be completely inept with the bat should he need to hit.

Pagan could be an outstanding addition for the Braves if the money is good and presumably, at this point, it seems unlikely he'll demand more than an incentive-rich one-year deal with a low base salary. So, I ask you again, John Coppolella. Send not only me, but the Braves an Angel. It's just too good of a fit.

Reviewing My 2015 Top 30 Prospects (Part 2 of 3)

Prospect lists are a snapshot in time. My biggest reason for reviewing how my Top 30 looked two years ago is in order to show that prospect lists, while fun (and certainly I love doing mine) are not meant to be the final say in who makes it or who doesn't. They are based on perceived potential and expected results at the time.

A couple of weeks ago, I began this review by touching on prospects #21-#30 of the 2015 preseason list. Today, I'm going to look at #11-#20 to see how I did.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

20. Jace Peterson, IF, Grade: C+....I'm rather happy with my grade and ranking for Peterson here. I struggled when I graded him because he was having a tremendous spring at the time and was getting a lot of hype. His resume also included a pair of 40-steal seasons, though before Double-A ball. The previous season, he had slashed .307/.402/.447 and made his major league debut with the Padres. Many people felt like he was underrated based on the stats, though others - like me - felt he was overrated based on projections and scouting reports. I mentioned a future as "an utility player / second division starter." That remains likely in my opinion.

19. Dian Toscano, OF, Grade: C+....Oh, God. So, that one sucked. Even in an average farm system at the time (though deeper than when the 2014-15 offseason began), ranking Toscano this high was a mistake. First off, I broke my own rule by ranking a player who was over 25. Second, there wasn't much reason to be this excited about Toscano. I'll chalk this one up to Frank Wren overtaking my mind and soul for a few minutes.

18. Dustin Peterson, 3B, Grade: C+....It's easy to forget now, but when Peterson was acquired, there was hope the Braves finally found a third baseman of the future. That title was quickly transferred to Rio Ruiz and then Austin Riley and most recently Kevin Maitan, but when the Braves acquired Peterson in the Justin Upton trade, the hope was that he could bring stability to the position. He was pushed to left field, instead, and after a lot of struggles in the Carolina League in 2015, Peterson had a bit of a breakout summer with the Mississippi Braves. He'll be in my Top 20 this year (with a higher grade) so the future is still bright for Peterson.

17. Garrett Fulenchek, P, Grade: C+....I became a big fan of the 2014 draft - Wren's last draft. It was a slight departure from his usual drafting philosophy of smart college players with a reachable floor and low ceiling as he took two prep players in the Top 100. Fulenchek was the #66th overall pick and fit the mold the Braves coaching staff at the time loved from their pitchers - hard sinkers to set up a swing-and-miss breaking pitch. After a promising first half-season in the GCL, Fulenchek has struggled tremendously with his control over the last two seasons. He was also dealt to the Rays in July of 2015 for international slot money.

16. Mauricio Cabrera, P, Grade: C+....At the time, we didn't know if the Braves had finally decided to move Cabrera to the pen. After impressing fans and Braves coaches alike with his triple-digit heat that spring, it was clear that Cabrera was destined for a relief assignment. He would look pretty bad in 2015, but rebounded last year before a callup to the majors, where he shined. There remain questions about his control, but the stuff and velocity are both off the charts. If he can refine his skills and stay healthy, Cabrera could be a high-leverage arm for years to come.

15. Ricardo Sanchez, P, Grade: C+....When I wrote this, I had very high expectations for Sanchez which was a bit unfair to the lefty. Sanchez was a good international prospect, but he wasn't a "can't miss" guy. When the Braves acquired him, he had only been successful - impressively so - at Rookie ball. Never fall in love with a rookie league superstars, kids. Two years later, he has been hurt a good deal of the time, which has limited Sanchez to just 159 innings with Rome. Furthermore, the results just aren't where we hoped they would be. I dropped him to 17th last year and 33rd this year. There's still hope here and despite two years at A-ball, he's only turning 20 this year. That said, I probably ranked him a bit high here.

14. Jason Hursh, P, Grade: C+....Speaking of guys I ranked too high. This is a case of listening too much to the experts over following my gut. At the time, Hursh did rank highly in an improving, but still pretty bare farm system. He had the first-round pedigree and expected quick rise to the majors to go with impressive control. With a year, however, the Braves had already figured out that Hursh wasn't going to help their rotation and moved him to the pen during the second half of 2015. He did make it to the majors for two games last summer and will be in the mix for a bullpen spot this spring, but I've let my gut take over as far as his prospect status goes and Hursh didn't make my Top 50. Further, he wasn't really a bubble guy.

13. Alec Grosser, P, Grade: C+....I was aggressive with my Grosser love. He was coming off an impressive run with Danville where he struck out nearly a batter an inning with a 2.9 K/BB rate. I felt he wasn't just a sleeper, but a legit prospect. And then...he lost the strikezone. As in, he completely lost where the strikezone was. In 85.1 innings in 2015, mostly spent with Rome, he walked 65, hit 16 batters, and uncorked 26 wild pitches. He only appeared in three games with Danville the next season before being selected as the player to be named later in the Bud Norris/Toscano for Caleb Dirks/Phil Pfeifer trade and wouldn't pitch again in 2016. 

12. Jose Briceno, C, Grade: C+....Yet another example of me getting far too attached to a new addition to the system who had some brief success at the lower rungs of the minor leagues. Briceno was coming off an 84-game season in the South Atlantic League in which he hit .283/.336/.476. He was already 21, but the catcher-hungry Braves needed a prospect to believe in behind the dish and Briceno looked like he could be that guy. He spent one year in the system looking completely lost in the Carolina League before being shipped off with Andrelton Simmons to the Angels. He played in High-A, Double-A, and even briefly in Triple-A last year with a .602 overall OPS.

11. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B-....Despite the high rating, I was a bit less in love with Smith than others. He had posted absurd stolen base totals in the Padres' system and looked like a perfect leadoff hitter. As I wrote then, " My question and the reason why I'm not sold on Smith...will he hit enough?" I believe that question remains unanswered and further, I contend a second part of that question should be included - will he do enough to have enough value as an offensive player. I believe he'll walk a good deal, but will he have an empty batting average that will mute some of his value? I believe that's a bit reason some experts tabbed him as a reserve rather than a starter. That said, I grew more convinced that Smith had a good chance of being a solid player after a strong 2015 season. He'll get a chance to prove his worth in 2017 with the Rays.

Braves Add Micah Johnson to the Mix

Keith Allison via Flickr CC 2.0

Last night, I read that Micah Johnson had been designated for assignment and immediately, my first thought was that he might make for a good target. Before I attempted to pen an article or send out a few tweets on the subject, I thought better of it. After all, is he that different from Jace Peterson?

Well, the Braves clearly liked him because today, they acquired the young speedster for either cash or a player to be named later. In addition, they agreed to arbitration with Arodys Vizcaino ($1.55M) and Ian Krol ($900K), which means the Braves will avoid an arbitration hearing.

So, who is Johnson? Born a week before Christmas in 1990, Johnson spent much of his life in Indiana. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson was selected in the ninth round in 2012 out of Indiana University-Bloomington and signed three days later. Quietly, he became a nifty prospect for the ChiSox with a big 2013 campaign that saw him play for three minor league squads and slash .312/.373/.451 with 24 doubles, 15 triples, 7 homers, and 84 steals. Those numbers were pretty legit as he played in the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues for the majority of the season, which hardly boost your offensive numbers.

After a short-lived run in the Arizona Fall League, Johnson was off to a great start in the Southern League in 2014 before a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte of the International League. His numbers took a bit of a dive there as his struggled to get on base once his average dipped below .280. Whatever power he has shown the previous year all but disappeared as well. Injuries also limited him to just 102 games on the year.

Whatever troubles he had in 2014, he put them behind him with a big spring to beat out Carlos Sanchez for the opening day second base job. While he would maintain a .270 batting average through the season's first 30 games, his issues at the plate continued to haunt him. He walked just five times compared to 17 strikeouts. With his OPS hovering in the .630's, Johnson was sent to the minors. Back in Charlotte, Johnson was able to right the ship with a .315/.375/.466 run with 8 homers and 28 steals. He was brought back in September, but couldn't find any holes and struck out in 13 of 31 PA.

Just a few months after believing Johnson could be the answer at second base, the White Sox included Johnson in a three-team deal with the Dodgers and Reds which sent Todd Frazier to Chicago, Jose Peraza to the Reds, and Johnson and two other prospects out west. Injuries got him to the majors for a second consecutive season, but Johnson spent nearly all of the season in Oklahoma City. The results weren't much to write home about despite the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League.

His .261/.321/.356 slash with 26 steals in 37 opportunities would eventually lead to being designated for assignment when Los Angeles needed a 40-man spot.

Johnson's minor league numbers are solid (.292/.357/.414), though his isolated slugging is all over the place. Some have suggested that his approach at the plate is inconsistent. When he's posted .137, .151, and higher isolated slugging marks, he does so in a way that might remind Braves fans of Marcus Giles. He loads his weight back, brings his front leg down, and torques his bottom half to maximize his power (first video to the right). That version of Johnson could bring some serious value to the table. At the same time, there is another Johnson who relies on bat control and a quick bat so that he can slap the ball (second video to the right). When watching video of the two swings, you might be convinced they are two different players.

Perhaps, White Sox coaches saw a fast player who should leg out grounders hit the other way and convinced him to cut down on his swing. Personally, I think that's a waste. While Johnson will never be a 20 HR/60 extra-base hit player, he has the potential to post double digit homerun seasons given the right amount of opportunities.

A left-handed hitter, Johnson does have traditional platoon splits with at least a 71-point difference in each season according to OPS in favor of facing right-handed pitchers. It's been especially pronounced the last two seasons.

Defensively, Johnson is a right-handed second baseman who has graded out average during his minor league career according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics. It's been a bit ugly in the majors, but that's likely sample-size hurting him. Regardless, despite impressive speed, it appears that Johnson is going to max out as merely average defensively. Last year, similar to their attempts to turn Peraza into an outfielder, the Dodgers utilized Johnson as an outfielder and even gave him a little time at third base. His numbers in the outfield appear decent, but there's not enough data.

Johnson just turned 26 so he won't be on my prospect list, but he's got an intriguing skill set - especially if he's loading up for power. Where does he fit on this Braves roster? Well, he's a better bench option that Emilio Bonifacio. If the Braves don't add a fourth outfielder, Johnson could be part of the hybrid bench with either Sean Rodriguez or the aforementioned Jace Peterson as guys who can play both the infield and outfield. Johnson would also fit a role I liked for Mallex Smith - speedster off the bench for late-inning replacements. On the other hand, a less-than-overwhelming spring could ticket Johnson for a return to Triple-A, which would exhaust his final option.

Either way, the Braves added a potential bench player with some upside for peanuts. We'll see how this one turns out, but the chances it hurts any is minimal.

Braves Trade Mallex, Get Stud Left-Hander

Twice this offseason, the Atlanta Braves have grouped major-league ready assets for higher-ceiling prospects. On Wednesday, they did it a third time as they acquired lefthanders Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows for right-handed reliever Shae Simmons and speedy outfielder Mallex Smith. The latter spent all of two minutes with the Mariners before being re-packaged in a deal to Tampa Bay. The two minutes might be a bit hyperbolic.

Much like the trades that saw the Braves acquire Luke and Alex Jackson (no relation), this trade is all about going for the elite prospect - in this case, Gohara. For years, the lefty made talent evaluators excited about his future, but the Brazillian southpaw struggled to find his way. While last year was his Age-19 season, it was his fourth year already in professional ball. It was also his best.

For the second consecutive season, he split time with Everett in the short-season A Northwest League and Clinton in the A-ball Midwest League - however, he flipped the script by spending the bulk of his time with Clinton after doing the opposite in 2015. The lefty set new highs in innings pitched (69.2) and strikeouts (81) while lowering his walk rate about 4%. His FIP in the 2.50's was nearly two runs lower than the previous year.

Gohara works off mid-90's heat and his secondary pitches took a step forward in 2016. His slider has strikeout potential at the major league level and his changeup could be good enough to keep hitters from being able to key into his fastball - which is not just fast, but comes with a good deal of movement. To this point, he has carried strong groundball numbers throughout the minors and in a superb pitching system, he won't get lost if he pitches up to his ability. In some ways, his acquisition reminds me of Ricardo Sanchez two years ago - except Gohara is more developed at the time of the deal.

Burrows essentially gives the Braves another 2016 draft choice. Picked #117 last year out of the University of Alabama where he is the career saves leader, Burrows spent his summer in Everett where he struck out 33.3% of opposing hitters. The walk rate will need to be cleaned up (10%), but all in all, it was a successful first year for the lefty complete with a 2.88 FIP.

A relief-only option, Burrows doesn't have big-time heat with low-to-mid 90's velocity, but gets great movement out of a 3/4's delivery which helps to create a natural sink to the pitch. The fact that he stands on the first-base side of the rubber also helps add sweeping motion. His second pitch, a low 80's slider, looked much better in his senior season, which helped to push him up the draft.

Make no mistake, though. This deal was about Gohara. It cost the Braves a pair of pieces that could have helped the 2017 team. Simmons came onto the scene in 2014 as a mid-90's pitcher with a solid breaking pitch. Immediately, he was compared to then-Braves closer Craig Kimbrel for his potential dominance on the mound. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, limited the righty to just seven games over the last two seasons. Expected to compete for a bullpen spot, Simmons still had a chance to put himself in line to be a closer one day with the Braves before this deal was completed. Nevertheless, the Braves have a large collection of potential bullpen arms, which I recently wrote about. Losing Simmons, while unfortunate, won't change that.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], 

On the other hand, losing Mallex Smith could hurt - in the short term. Depending on who you talked to or read, Smith had a chance to be a top-of-the-lineup center fielder with good on-base skills. Or, he could be a solid fourth outfielder. The Braves may have counted on the latter and that's a fair assumption. They also probably looked at a fairly undeniable aspect of roster construction - regardless of his talent, Smith was not a good fit for the Braves. While he could be a more valuable player than either Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis - especially if he moved Ender Inciarte to a corner - Smith was not right for Atlanta when you consider how little power the team would have with Inciarte and Ozzie Albies joining Smith in the everyday lineup presumably at some point. While I did like what Smith could provide in a fourth outfielder/defensive caddy/late inning substitution role, it would have muted his potential value simply because the nature of the roster was against him.

It's a bonus that the Braves acquired a player of Gohara's stature, though. Further, this trade opened up a pair of spots on the 40-man roster without losing talent for nothing. That gives Braves general manager John Coppolella increased flexibility to make a move both via trade and free agency, which has seen the market crash for several 2-to-5-win players. They might be willing to accept some bargain prices and not having to worry about the 40-man roster only makes that easier.

This trade is not too dissimilar from another trade from earlier this offseason. Like Smith, Tyrell Jenkins was a well-liked youngster who was one of the first building blocks for a rebuilding team two years ago. And then, without an inkling of a rumor, Jenkins was traded. Since then, we have seen Jenkins' believed value plummet. I don't see the same thing happening to Smith, but Jenkins' case might be a good reminder that our objectivity in regards to our favorite team's prospects is often skewed. Smith has a good chance to have a solid major league career, but was he going to be a difference maker? It's unlikely. The same can be said for Simmons. While Gohara is a lot further away than those two, the Braves continued to side with upside over depth. It's a big reason the front office has remade this farm system into a talent-rich cadre of players and Gohara - and Burrows - only enhances that.

Ender Inciarte Makes Atlanta his Long-Term Home

Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop) (CC 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Two days before Christmas, Ender Inciarte received a nice Christmas present. Or, maybe it was the other way around? Maybe Mom was right when she told me that giving a gift was a present in its own right.

The Braves and their new center fielder agreed upon a five-year contract worth at least $30.525 million. A sixth season option would increase the overall value of the deal to $38.5 million. Inciarte was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and as a Super 2 player, he would have been arbitration-eligible for three more years. In essence, the Braves bought out at least one of his free agent years and if they exercise his option, they will have the defensive wonder through his Age-31 season.

While this contract cannot possibly be reasonably argued against, there are questions about Inciarte that remain valid despite a solid first year in Atlanta. Notably, he lacks any real defining skill offensively. While this is completely true, Inciarte makes the most of his skillset and has shown improvement as he's matured into a more seasoned veteran. Last year, he increased his walk rate 3% upon the previous year. He improved his contact rate while doing it, which meant he simply swung the bat less - a sign of a better eye. He lowered his groundball rate and increased his line drive percentage. That leads to more hits.

However, no matter what Inciarte does at the plate, in a good year, he'll merely rise to above average with the bat when league and park factors are weighed. What earned him a contract was his superb base running and defense. First, let's go over the base running because his defense is already well renowned.

Base running is one of those things that can be difficult to quantify and even harder to know how to quantify. Our old method was limited to stolen base numbers. If Player A was successful in, say, 80% of his stolen base attempts, he was a good base runner. However, now, we can better judge base running through metrics like BsR and some of the other numbers we can find at Baseball-Reference.

For instance, B-R keeps track of how many times a runner took the extra base. In his two years with the Diamondbacks, Inciarte advanced an extra base 29% and 40% of the time. The latter is roughly the major league average. In his first season with the Braves, 52% of the time, he took an extra base by going to first-to-third on a single or first-to-home on a double. While not in the same company as some of the elite speedsters and base runners in the game, it was a solid improvement for Inciarte. He was also successful in 70% of his stolen base attempts, which is close to league average.

Fangraphs paints an even rosier picture of Inciarte's base running prowess. With a 4.3 grade, Inciarte finished 2016 as the 21st best base runner in baseball. When you take into account the last two seasons, Inciarte moves up a bit to 16th best with a 7.6 overall grade. To put that into perspective for Braves fans, one guy we loved to watch on the base paths was Jason Heyward. Over the last two years, Heyward has a grade of 9.0 - ninth in baseball.

When it comes to defense, Inciarte is one of the five-best center fielders in baseball and you might be able to lower that number to three or four-best. Unfortunately, because he played a lot of left and right with the D'Backs, he doesn't rank very highly when you judge multiple seasons in regards to center fielder numbers. However, in the context of 2016, there is Kevin Pillar, Billy Hamilton, Inciarte, and a little bit of space before Jackie Bradley Jr. While he did play some left field and missed time with an injury, Inciarte still finished third in UZR/150, tied for second in rPM (Plus Minus Runs Saved), fourth in rARM (Outfield Arm Runs Saved), and third in DRS. Inside Edge ranks him a bit below Pillar and Hamilton as far as range goes and he doesn't make many remote or unlikely players, but Inciarte is as good as it gets when it comes to borderline, likely, and almost certain plays.

Here is a couple of things to keep in mind. What does Inciarte's contract extension mean for Mallex Smith? Probably not good things. To play both Inciarte and Smith, the Braves would be committing to two positions with very little pop. Remember that Ozzie Albies, the presumptive long-term option at second base, also lacks very much power. That would mean that on any given day, nearly half of the lineup (once you add the pitcher) would be full of guys who may never reach double figure homerun totals. On the flipside, with a fairly team-friendly contract, Inciarte becomes an even better trade asset. Teams will already be able to know how much Inciarte will be paid through what we can assume is the prime of his career. One could also suggest that the Braves do not grade Smith as highly as many fans do and think of him more as a fourth outfielder/platoon option than a full-time guy.

No matter how this plays out, this contract means two things to me. One, the John Hart-led contract extension frenzy of 2013-14 might be back on. During that offseason, the Braves signed Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, Chris Johnson, and Craig Kimbrel to long-term extensions. The latter two would be later dismissed, but Teheran and Freeman have blossomed into cornerstones. While Inciarte was the obvious choice for a contract extension this offseason, could we be that far away from considering Dansby Swanson a candidate for a contract extension? If Mike Foltynewicz or Matt Wisler take a monster step forward in 2017, could they be in line for an extension? Hart kept the young nucleus of the Indians together this way once before.

Second, this contract makes the Shelby Miller deal last winter look even better. While I have my concerns about Aaron Blair, the Braves have team control of Inciarte and Swanson through the 2022 season. If Blair figures it out, even better. Miller, along with Tyrell Jenkins, were once the early foundation of a future Braves winner. They were since turned into an even better foundation for a future Braves winner that has already developed into a pair of new franchise cornerstones to go with Teheran and Freeman.

All in all, I didn't expect a contract extension this winter, but I'm glad to see it. Inciarte is a great player to have around at a premium position. You just don't find 3+ fWAR guys on five year deals worth a shade more than $30 million anymore.

2016 Player Reviews: Mallex Smith, Dansby Swanson, Julio Teheran

Today's player reviews is a biggy (or should I say today's trio of players are bigly important?). Three exciting players at three different junctures of their careers. One is trying to establish himself as a major league option. Another may have already done that and now, we wonder what more can he become? The other is about to be a five-year major league veteran and has given us a solid floor of what we ought to expect out of him, but could he be on the verge of a breakout season?

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Mallex Smith, OF, 23 years-old

2016 Review: After finishing 2015 with a .328 wOBA at Gwinnett over 307 plate appearances, Smith seemed primed for a repeat assignment with the Braves' Triple-A squad for at least the first few months of the 2016 season. Instead, an Ender Inciarte injury during the first few games of the season opened the door for Smith. While he would later suffer his own injury which would limit him to just 80 overall games (plus some minor league postseason action), Smith showed us a few things that give us a glimpse of where he is right now as a player. One, he might be capable of an everyday assignment in center field from a defensive standpoint. We knew coming in, he had the speed, but reports were mixed whether he was maximizing the speed with proper angles. While he would later be shifted to left field, where he thrived, that was more about Inciarte's excellent play than Smith. Another thing that we learned was what we could have assumed coming in - his bat is a work in progress. He hit just .238/.316/.365 in the majors. One final thing...it's much more difficult to swipe bases in the majors. After stealing 57-of-70 bases (81%) in 2015, Smith was only successful in 16-of-24 stolen base attempts in the majors.

2017 Projection: There seems to be two schools of thought with Smith. With his speed, solid on-base skills (career .382 minor league OBP), and possibly above-average ability to play center field, he could have similar value as players like Cesar Hernandez, who accounted for 4.4 fWAR last season with a 10.6% walk rate, 17 steals, and a .294 batting average to go with a .099 isolated slugging. Yes, Hernandez is a second baseman, but that's a level from which we can project Smith tio produce at with better stolen base numbers. The other school of thought that comes up when we think about Smith is that, outside of his speed, he lacks a standout skill. He's hit .296 in the minors. While that's a great batting average, the problem is that he's going to provide an "empty" batting average because he has very little extra-base ability. Because of his lack of a standout skill at the plate, maybe Smith will max out as a platoon/4th outfielder. It's way too early to tell which option is more likely, but Smith might benefit from playing a reserve role in 2017. As it stands, the Braves have a veteran-laden outfield with Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp flanking Inciarte. Obviously, a lot can change, but at this point, I don't think Smith really pushes any of that trio for playing time. Rather, he gives the Braves depth and a defensive caddy for Kemp. Meanwhile, the Braves can get him 250 or so plate appearances in the majors to work on one real issue that we saw last year. While Smith is patient at the plate, his contact rate and swinging strike percentage both were issues. While there is an argument that those rates won't be improved by averaging about 10 plate appearances a week, I think his skillset as a reserve (pinch running, defense, situational hitting) could be too good for the Braves to pass on next season. Either way, what we see right now is a guy who brings a good deal of excitement. Can he be a full-time starter in the majors? I don't think that question is likely going to be answered in 2017, but we should be closer to a decision this time next year than we are now.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA (Dansby Swanson takes
grounders) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Dansby Swanson, SS, 23 years-old

2016 Review: Here's some good news. The Braves now have a shortstop and won't need to bother with a veteran stop-gap for a second consecutive season. Swanson was a bit of a surprise callup toward the end of the season. After blitzing the Carolina Legaue to open 2016, Swanson had been up-and-down with Mississippi for most of the year. Yeah, he flashed some major potential, but was he ready for the majors? The Braves felt so and promoted him in mid-August. The situation never seemed too large for Swanson and he provided tremendous defense at shortstop over a 38-game cameo to end the year. I realize his UZR/150 doesn't back up the last statement, but I believe that number is soft. Swanson's production at the plate ultimately mimicked his Mississippi-levels except for one key difference. His BABIP at Mississippi was .309. With Atlanta, it was 74 points higher (.383). However, his walk rate held steady at 9% and while his strikeout percentage did climb to 23.4% after hovering around 19% with Mississippi, that's really not a worrisome mark in a short sample size (especially with around league average contact rates). Advanced metrics of .334 wOBA and 107 wRC+ are springboards for what's to come.

2017 Projection: Now, he's not a seasoned veteran who we can expect All-Star-level performance from just yet, but he's got a chance to be pretty damn special. Swanson has just 165 games of professional experience since the Diamondbacks took his with the first overall pick in 2015 and has done nothing short of impress. While it would be easy to think about what Swanson can be become, let's focus on 2017 for the moment. The Braves treated Swanson with kid gloves last year and left him in the eighth spot in the order, but he'll probably move up to the second spot in 2017 and hit between Inciarte and Freddie Freeman, which should only help him see more fastballs (he had a 6.2 wFA last year according to PITCHf/x). I've long felt that the second spot is a perfect place for young hitters to hone their skills and Swanson profiles as a perfect #2 guy in the lineup. Swanson's early success also bought him some time if he struggles out the gate to not feel the pressure to succeed or get demoted. The Braves will - or at least, should - give him the time to play through some issues as Swanson's progress will go a long way to deciding just how close the Braves are to being a division title contender again.

Julio Teheran, RHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Teheran is basically becoming the Andruw Jones of pitchers. While he may never become the pitcher some projected he would become during his minor league days, that shouldn't take away from the fact that he's a very productive option. A year after struggling with his control, Teheran found it again in 2016, setting a new single-season low with a 5.4% walk rate, which represents a 3.3% decline from the previous year. His strikeouts have remained steady in the 21% range as a major leaguer and Teheran continues to surrender his fair share of homeruns, though the rate is an acceptable 1-in-10 flyballs that turn into homers. He's lost a tick in average velocity, though still has the ability to hit close to 96 mph with his fourseamer and 94 mph with his sinker. Overall, his 2016 was much like his 2013-14 in performance and that's a pretty good thing. Beyond control, possibly one thing that led to Teheran's resurgence this year was that he once again wasn't completely inept against left-handers, who owned him in 2015.

2017 Projection: One of the stories of camp will be if new pitching coach Chuck Hernandez, along with other the new pitching instructors the Braves have added, are able to unlock some potential in Teheran that we haven't seen. We all know Roger McDowell preached working the knee-high strike on the corners. Will Hernandez and company push Teheran to be more aggressive? Consider that Teheran worked the entire strikezone against right-handed batters in 2013. Just as many pitches were over the inside corner as the outside corner among pitches that would have been charted as a "strikes." Last year, about a hundred more pitches were charted as "strikes" over the outside corner as there were over the inside corner. To the right, you can see a visual representation about what I am talking about. The top pic comes from 2013, Teheran's rookie season. The bottom one is last year. As you can see, while the pitching styles aren't wildly different, Teheran seemed more apt to come in to right-handed batters. While I am just just using right-handed batters because it's a bigger sample size, I should point out that left-handed batters see a reverse in that he's more likely to come in against them than he was in 2013. Now, part of all of this is due to better control, but one has to wonder what effect - if any - the new pitching braintrust will have on a guy like Teheran. Either way, we do know that Teheran will likely be, at minimum, a 3-win pitcher in 2017 and short of a big trade, will be expected to front this rotation.

2016 Player Reviews: Jason Hursh, Ender Inciarte, Tyrell Jenkins

With today's three in the bank, I am still not even half-way through this series, but progress is progress, right? There are a lot of players still in the mix for hypothetical spots on the 2017 roster, though as we shift toward the offseason and a plethora of moves the Braves make to try to get better next year, open slots on next year's roster will be harder to come by. Today's trio has one definite member of next year's roster in the mix - provided he's not traded. Two others could battle for a bullpen spot.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

 Jason Hursh, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the first time in his career, Hursh did not get a starting assignment during the season. His move to the pen actually began in 2015 when he was shifted from the starting rotation after struggling badly during a second run in Mississippi. Overall, there is not much of a difference between Hursh the Starter and Hursh the Reliever except for one thing. He induced a ridiculous amount of groundballs when coming out of the pen. He's always been a groundball pitcher, but he went from a 1.6 groundball/flyball rate to 2.5 this season. According to this article from Fangraphs, that's comparable to a 55%-60% rate. Somewhere, Bobby Cox just had dreams of Kevin Gryboski. Hursh got a look in the bigs in August, though the results were pretty ugly (in a extra-petite sample size). He finished up the season with Gwinnett with mixed results.

2017 Projection: I kid about the Gryboski comparison, but Hursh is that kind of pitcher that a manager might be tempted to utilize in "rally-killing" situations. The problem with that idea is that Hursh has very little margin for error. He won't get many strikeouts (5.5-6.5 K/9) and isn't pinpoint enough with his control to make that work for him. Hursh could provide better value to the Braves if a team sees more in him than the Braves and is willing to take Hursh in a trade. If he returns in 2017, he'll be part of a large group of pitchers trying to get a look in the spring. A trip to Gwinnett seems most likely if he's not dealt beforehand.

Ender Inciarte, OF, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tale of two different seasons for Inciarte. Through his first 56 games (which includes a trip to the DL), Inciarte was hitting an abysmal .226/.293/.304. He had been relegated to the bottom of the order and it looked like it would be a lost year for the former D'Back. Instead, Inciarte righted the ship beginning on July 8. Over his final 75 games, he slashed .338/.392/.436. Until the last weekend, he didn't go back-to-back games without a hit. Back in the leadoff spot, Inciarte was integral to the offense's resurgence in the second half. While his bat failed to impress early, his defense was a full-season marvel. Briefly, he was utilized in left field, but quickly, Brian Snitker realized that was a waste of Inciarte's impressive talents. He finished the season with 13 DRS, the third best total in the majors. For the first time since Michael Bourn left via free agency after 2012, the Braves had a plus-plus defender in center field.

2017 Projection: Let's be clear...the Inciarte of the final 75 games is not a true reflection of his skill level, but a regression to the mean. We have two extreme samples of Inciarte in 2016 and the overall performance level is closer to the final numbers (.291/.351/.381) than either of the extremes. That stat line isn't too far removed from his 2015 campaign with the D'Backs. He did show some improvement with a slight climb in walk rate to nearly 8% after hovering around 5% with Arizona. What is more impressive is the improvement against lefthanders. While it deserves to be mentioned that his .355 BABIP against lefties indicates an artificially high triple slash, Inciarte still reached .319/.365/.384 - a far cry from the .288 OBP he had against southpaws before coming to Atlanta. It would be easy to suggest - especially with Mallex Smith also in the fold - that the Braves could shop Inciarte this winter. Certainly, they could, but they shouldn't sell him short. He now has 381 major league games under his belt and a 9.5 fWAR to show for it. While his numbers may never wow you, his overall value to a team is easy to see and difficult to replicate.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Another mixed bag, Jenkins made it to the majors this year nearly six years after being selected the 50th overall pick of the 2010 draft. In addition, his callup came just a few weeks after Jenkins was shifted to the bullpen. At that time, I felt it was the right move as I am not a big believer that Jenkins' best value comes in the starting rotation. However, with the starting staff's depth issues in 2016, the Braves moved Jenkins into the starting rotation to make his first big league start on July 6. He would make seven more starts through August 20. Jenkins had a nice run in there (3 starts, 18 innings, two earned runs allowed), but his last two starts sent his ERA skyrocketing to 6.20 when he was demoted. He appeared twice in September in the majors and ended the year with 52 innings pitched, more walks than strikeouts, and nearly a dozen homers surrendered. His minor league numbers were better, but nothing to write home about outside of 2.47 ERA matched with a 3.61 FIP.

2017 Projection: When he was acquired by the Braves, Jenkins was a top pitching prospect in a system that didn't have many to speak of. Now, he's lost in the crowd. There has always been a bit of disconnect between the potential pitcher Jenkins could become and the pitcher Jenkins has a better chance of being. He won't be 25 until next July, but progression has been lacking to this point. He did reach 120 innings for back-to-back years - something he never did with the Cards. Nevertheless, Jenkins will need considerable refinement to be a serious starting pitcher possibility for the Braves moving forward. A best-case scenario could see Jenkins developing into a Derek Lowe-type where he induces a lot of grounders and logs innings. I feel a more likely option is that Jenkins grows into a Cristhian Martinez type of reliever who can give you a few innings in mostly low-leverage opportunities. While that role has some value, it's a far cry from the hope the Braves and their fans had when he was acquired from the Cardinals nearly two years ago.

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