Transaction Tuesday: Swanson, Demeritte, Sanchez, Pena

Not a big week in transactions, though a few players hit the DL that was quite noteworthy. We also had a minor league trade and a player to be named later was finally named in the Brandon Phillips trade. Finally, there was a suspension for a minor league player.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 8 to August 14. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta

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Recalled from Gwinnett: Dansby Swanson...Here's the thing that already looks good - Swanson is hitting the ball with more exit velocity (roughly 5-7 mph) than he did when his struggles finally reached rock bottom before the demotion. That's a plus. On the negative side, he has yet to hit a ball with a better than 90 mph EV - something he did more frequently earlier in the season. But we'll take what good we can find from Swanson. His time in the minors wasn't very exciting, though it was short-lived. In fact, the most noteworthy thing about his stay in the minors was when he played second base. Not much else has yet to be written about Swanson this year so I won't bore you with the same old, same old. What we do know is how he finishes these last several weeks might tell us more about where he is heading into 2018 and how the Braves see him.

Acquired as a PTBNL from Reds: Kevin Franklin...A second rounder back in 2013, Franklin has yet to show much of a bat in the minors. He was expected to have good power coming out of high school and was ranked #232 by Baseball America before the draft. Franklin has a long swing and the expected side effect of such a lengthy swing - a lot of strikeouts. He's also quite aggressive at the plate and is simply not in the batter's box to take walks. Now 22-years-old, Franklin is a curious pickup here. I guess it suggests that the Reds weren't offering much more to add to the already very successful Brandon Phillips trade.

DL'd: Johan Camargo (#23, knee bone bruise)...Injured in an odd series of events last week, Camargo will miss some time with a knee injury. Camargo was struggling right before the injury with a .204/.278/.367 slash over his previous 54 PA (15 games). His BABIP was still at a healthy .364 clip and I don't want to make too much of a big deal about that. The Camargo of 2017 is not the Camargo of previous years so the old and trusted idea of a career norm in BABIP might not be as useful as it usually is. All that said, there are some issues here that do suggest a further decline in his full season numbers shouldn't be a surprise. I'm of the belief - and the numbers support it - that Camargo's range is not very good at shortstop. With his cannon, he's a better fit at third. Either way, no one can disagree that Camargo has had a very good rookie season. It's what he ultimately profiles as that there is a lot of disagreement and that is unlikely to change soon.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Emerson Landoni...This is the sixth time Landoni has made one of these updates. He's the definition of organizational filler.

Activated: Rhiner Cruz...One of Gwinnett's top relievers missed very little time on the DL. A right-hander with major league experienced (5.05 FIP in 76.1 ING), Cruz has been much better with Gwinnett than he was in the Mexican League last year, proving once and for all - if you can't hack it in the Mexican League, you still have a future in the International League.

Traded to Tacoma (Seattle): Andrew Albers...You landed on one of two sides when it came to this deal, which brought the Braves some extra cash. Either you were upset about trading the left-hander in the middle of a dominant season at Triple-A or you thought, "Am I upset about dealing a soft-tossing 31-year-old lefty? Nope." Albers has always had good control and with no plus-plus pitch, he knows how to use what he has well. The problem is guys with Albers' stuff often get blasted in the majors. Sometimes, though, something clicks and an AAAA guy finds success late in his career. Aaron Small, who also played in the Braves' system, had a brief 76-inning stretch in 2005 with the Yankees where he put up a 1.3 fWAR run. This is amazing since his lifetime fWAR is 0.5. The next season, he turned back into a pumpkin. Will the Braves regret giving away Albers? I doubt it, but who knows? Baseball's a funny game.

Mississippi

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DL'd: Travis Demeritte (#12)...The hype train was ready to leave the station this season for Demeritte, but one small problem. It left behind Demeritte, who has languished during a terrible season in Mississippi, slashing just .216/.295/.398 with 15 homers. He has struck out less - about 6% less - but that number has been climbing this summer as his batting average has declined. In his defense, a .269 BABIP is killer. In fact, it's similar to his 2014 campaign, where he slashed .211/.310/.450. That year, his BABIP was .286. When you strike out as frequently as Demeritte does - and he's still striking out 27.5% of the time - super low BABIP numbers will kill your average because around 30% of your plate appearances are already outs. If you are looking for another silver lining...Demeritte has hit left-hand pitching very well. That suggests a possibility - a very remote one - of Demeritte possibly pushing his way into the third base picture next spring if the Braves don't bring in a player to take over the position. As of now, I don't have any information as to what landed Demeritte on the DL.

Florida
DL'd: Sal Giardina...There was some thought that when Giardina was demoted at the end of July, he might be retiring. His tweet did kind of suggest that. Instead, he joined Florida, where he played first base and third base over the next several days. According to another tweet, Giardina recently was dealing with strep, which is why he missed a few games. It's possible the trip to the DL is just an extension of that.

DL'd: Ricardo Sanchez (#31)...There have been a few good things with Sanchez's season. His strikeout rate has climbed for the second straight season while his walk rate has declined for the third straight season. He's getting about 7% more groundballs and his numbers would likely look a lot better if he wasn't carrying a .358 BABIP as his FIP (4.06) and xFIP (3.69) suggests. Unfortunately, in his most recent start on Sunday, Sanchez faced two batters (retired both) and threw only seven pitches before being removed. We'll hope for the best in regards to Sanchez, but that's never a good sign.

Rome
Demoted to Danville and Re-promoted: Walter Borkovich...The next handful of moves were all about getting fresh arms on the Rome active roster and utilizing the Danville's bigger roster to do so. Borkovich has appeared with Danville this season, but since his call-up a few weeks ago even though he "spent" much of last week in the Appalachian League.

Promoted from Danville: Troy Conyers...Didn't appear for Danville so another roster management move.

Promoted from Danville: Tucker Davidson...Didn't appear for Danville so another roster management move.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Matt Custred...This is completely due to roster management as Custred is part of what is a very talented Rome bullpen. In fact, Custred has earned a promotion that probably should have come after last season. In 2016, Custred had a 3.18 ERA over 56.1 ING. The walks were a bit high, but he also struck out 64. A year later and his numbers are tremendously better and the 23-year-old still can't get a call-up to Florida. Custred has solid mid-90's heat with good movement when he keeps it down and an excellent curveball that he has a better feel of this season. The Braves are often aggressive with their best prospects so Custred languishing at Rome (with some "time" spent with Danville) suggests they don't value him very highly.

Demoted from Rome: Taylor Hyssong...Another part of the roster shakeup as the Braves sought to pull guys off the Rome roster and put that back on. Hyssong didn't pitch while in Low-A.

GCL

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Promoted from DSL: Yenci Pena...The 2016 J2 class keeps giving. Pena got an even million bucks to sign last year - though he signed a few weeks after Kevin Maitan and company because he didn't turn 16 until July 13. Pena is a well-rounded prospect who does a bit of everything. The Braves liked him at shortstop in the DSL and moving forward in the GCL, we might get a glimpse into who is the higher-rated shortstop right now - Livan Soto or Pena. Soto has been the regular at shortstop this year for the GCL squad and though he hasn't done a lot with the bat, he's been doing a bit better of late.

DSL
Assigned: Yandri Lara...The Braves haven't been shy about getting some of their J2 class from this year into action and Lara is the latest addition to the club. A 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic, Lara is listed as a third baseman and that's about all of the information I have on him so far. He played regularly over the last week, though struggled badly with just a single in 18 AB. He walked twice and struck out a dozen times.

Suspended: Madinson Colon...Signed near the end of 2016-17 international class, Colon was in the midst of some truly awful numbers before popping positive for Stanozolol. In eight games and 7.1 ING, Colon had walked 16 and struck out just four. In his defense, one of those walks was intentional so it was really only 15 walks in 7.1 ING. Ruff. He also hit four batters and uncorked five wild pitches. So, you see, the usage of the term "performance-enhancing drug" here does not apply.

Scouting Report - Huascar Ynoa

Yesterday, the Braves traded Jaime Garcia to the Twins - along with Anthony Recker and a bag of money - and acquired Huascar Ynoa. Stephen Tolbert did a tremendous job going over the trade. Today's focus is on Ynoa, though. Here is a scouting report on the young pitcher.

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Player: Huascar Ynoa
Date of Scouting Report: 7/25/17 by Tommy Poe

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 19
How Acquired: Trade, 7/24/17
Salary: Minor League Minimum
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration (If applicable): 3

Brief Bio: Ynoa was a top pitching prospect during the 2014 J2 Class. Signed for $800,000 by the Twins, Ynoa ranked 17th on the international prospects MLB.com list while ranking 14th on Baseball America's Top 30 list. A product of the Dominican Republic, Ynoa was lauded for his frontline starter potential and some sources felt he was the best pitching prospect in the class - better than Christopher Acosta (Red Sox), Anderson Espinoza (also Red Sox), Juan Meza (Blue Jays), and Franklin Perez (Astros). Interestingly, the Braves' top signing that year, Juan Yepez, missed the MLB Top 30, but now the Braves have two members from that class in Ynoa (#17) and catcher Ricardo Rodriguez (#30).

Ynoa made his debut the following summer in the Dominican Summer League. Just 17 years-old, Ynoa was solid over 14 starts with 19% strikeout rate. He did walk 12%, which lowered his FIP to 3.84, but all-in-all, it was a good debut season for the teenager still learning how to pitch. He headed to the Gulf Coast League the following season and improved his numbers a good deal with a 24% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. Like the previous season, he allowed just one homer but threw seven fewer wild pitches in 5.2 fewer innings.

This season, Ynoa came out the gate and struck out seven Danville Braves in his season debut, which resulted in a loss. He allowed four earned runs combined over four of his first five starts, but his stinkers were especially bad (5 walks, 5 ER over 2 innings on 7/10, 6 ER on 7/23). His numbers in those games especially have put a significant hurting on his season line.

Ynoa is listed at 6'3" and 175 pounds, which is interesting because he was 6'2" and 190 lbs. when he signed. I've also seen some sources list him at 220 lbs., which is a bit more believable. He has a great pitcher's frame and has yet to spend any time on the DL.

At the time of the trade, Ynoa was ranked #22 by MLB Pipeline in a Twins system that was ranked about middle-of-the-pack in terms of organizational talent. John Sickels ranked Ynoa #14th before the season and spoke highly about Ynoa's curveball. He also praised Ynoa's improving mechanics and command. Recently, Twins Daily left him out of their Midseason Top 15.

Offensive Observations and Grades: N/A

Pitching Observations and Grades: Ynoa starts with his hands at his stomach when pitching from the wind-up. He'll bring the glove up to about neck-high with a leg kick that's not too pronounced. Early on, it looked like his release point was a high 3/4's, but that looks to have dropped to a regular 3/4's release point. His motion to the plate is very fluid and he's quick to the plate - almost too quick. His mechanics can sometimes come out of whack as he tries to get through his motion - especially with runners on base. He might be better served by incorporating a pause or something to force him to push his weight back to allow his mechanics to come through better. The plus side is Ynoa won't waste much time between pitches, which will help keep his infielders on their toes.

When Ynoa signed with the Twins, one thing that stood out about him is that for a young pitcher, he had a robust repertoire of pitches - a fastball, splitter, slider, changeup, and a curve. The Twins have worked to widdle that down to a three-pitch mix - heater, change, and a slider that is more of a slurve.

His fastball has not added much velocity since signing. Instead, he's still trying to find the stamina to not lose velocity the second time through the order. His heater averages in the low 90's with a max in the 94-95 mph range, though I have seen him listed at hitting 97 mph. He's still growing into his body and should find more consistent velocity as he gets older.

Despite still being a teenager, Ynoa has always flashed both good mechanics with his changeup and an excellent feel for the pitch. The velocity drops into the low-to-mid 80's with similar arm motion and speed as his fastball. When he's on, he can spot his changeup on the corners and low in the zone, which induces a good deal of weak contact.

His breaking pitch is a slider/slurve that flashes some good sweeping movement with bite. Like any of his deliveries, consistency is a problem. One start, the pitch could be the low 80's with swing-and-miss stuff. During his next start, it could be in the mid-80's and flat. I believe much of that is due to his inability to consistently repeat his delivery to this point.

The Twins pushed Ynoa to scrap his splitter and curveball. The Braves preach curveballs so they may have a different plan. Either way, his curve does have some good movement when he can hit his release point with it. It might not be a plus-pitch, but could be a good second-time-thru-the-order pitch to showcase here-and-there.

Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (50), Movement (45), Control (40)
Potential Grades...Velocity (60), Movement (55), Control (55)

Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (40), Changeup (45), Slider (35), Curveball (30)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Changeup (60), Slider (55), Curveball (45)

Other Grades...Holding Runners (N/A), Speed to the Plate (60)

Defensive Observations and Grades: No grade is given right now, but Ynoa's follow-through takes his momentum toward the first base side of the mound, making him vulnerable to bunts toward third. He shows good athletism and a feel for knowing to cover first base.

Future Projection: There is a lot of raw talent here despite being in his third season. The Twins have played it very conservative with him and I doubt the Braves will change that just yet. Ynoa is a project with a high ceiling, but enough questions revolving around him to believe he may never get there. If the slider develops and there is more consistency with his delivery and velocity, Ynoa could profile as a reliever down the line. If his slider develops a lot and his changeup becomes a great pitch - along with increased control and tighter mechanics - Ynoa could be a starter in the major leagues and a potentially really good one at that.

Ynoa is similar in some regards to Ricardo Sanchez. Another young kid who was a big international signing, the Braves liked Sanchez's pitchability and maturity. Ynoa has that. What he doesn't have is the results to support the belief that he's much closer to realizing his potential than he was when he signed. Perhaps with the Braves coaching helping him, that might change. Like our Stephen Tolbert said of him, "he's a lottery ticket." Most of the time, lottery tickets don't win. Some of the time, you might get your investment back or maybe even get a $20 scratcher. It's hard to find that big winner, but Ynoa once had many scouts believing he could be that big winner. Perhaps he still can be.

Realistically, Ynoa has the most likely projection of being a low-leverage reliever in the majors. But there are reasons to be optimistic here and Ynoa's profile is worthy of some degree of optimism here.



I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.

Random Prospect Sunday - Kevin Josephina

The 2013 Signing Period for international players was not heralded by publications. Of the Top 30 Prospects that Baseball America profiled, none signed with the Braves - though they'd add #27, Ricardo Sanchez, later. It was a quiet collection of talent in which two of the highest paid players were a right-hander out of Panama named Frank Gil (released last July) and a smallish shortstop from Curacao named Ozzie Albies. Both Gil and Albies received $350K.

While Albies has developed into one of the elite prospects in the game, he wasn't the only switch-hitting shortstop from the small island of Curacao to land a contract with the Braves that signing period. Signed for $50K less than Albies was Kevin Josephina. Slightly bigger than Albies and not nearly the base stealer, the belief was that Josephina could develop into a hitter with a bit of pop to match his growing 6-foot frame.

Albies and Josephina have never played a game together. While the higher-rated prospect headed stateside for the 2014 rookie season, Josephina landed in the Dominican Republic. It would be a forgetful season in which he rarely played and when the 17-year-old did take the field, he struggled at the plate. He still graduated the DSL and headed to the Gulf Coast League for 2015. He hit .272 over 85 PA, but managed just two extra base hits and three walks.

The following season, 2016, would give Josephina his first real chance to show what he was made up. He began the season that June in the Appalachian League and over 13 games, he slashed .300/.333/.420 with a homer. His quick success was rewarded with a promotion to Rome. He continued to show a strong hit tool with a .271 average over his first 62 PA and also showed a bit of pop with a .170 ISO. He followed that up by hitting .264/.257/.333 in his final twenty games. Over 136 PA in Rome, Josephina walked all of zero times.

Unsurprisingly, Josephina didn't earn a call-up to Florida to open 2017. He did hold off Marcus Mooney to become the team's primary second baseman and over 28 games, he's hit .298/.343/.330. He hasn't shown any pop so far, but already has six more walks than he did in Rome last year (which, again, was zero). He's also, for the first time, using his speed more effectively. Josephina was successful in eight of his first ten attempts. This is his Age-20 season and he won't turn 21 until October 2.

Let's get one thing straight - Josephina doesn't have Albies' hit tool. Or his speed. Or his defense - though Josephina is rather capable. What Josephina does have is an intriguing set of skills and potential that goes along with those skills that deserve a bit more coverage. He strikes out a bit too often, but if he can start showing more pop, walking a little more, and continue to showcase improved base-stealing ability, Josephina will become a good little prospect. He's played mostly second base and shortstop to this point, but the belief was that he might outgrow shortstop and play third - where his arm looks strong enough. Maybe his potential won't ever allow him to become a star, but there's enough here to forecast a possible bench role in his future if it comes together for him.

For more on Josephina, check out this scouting report.

For more Random Prospect Sunday profiles, click a link below.
James Webb (3/5/17)
Tanner Murphy (2/26/17)
Omar Obregon (5/15/16)

Reviewing My 2015 Top 30 Prospects (Part 2 of 3)

Prospect lists are a snapshot in time. My biggest reason for reviewing how my Top 30 looked two years ago is in order to show that prospect lists, while fun (and certainly I love doing mine) are not meant to be the final say in who makes it or who doesn't. They are based on perceived potential and expected results at the time.

A couple of weeks ago, I began this review by touching on prospects #21-#30 of the 2015 preseason list. Today, I'm going to look at #11-#20 to see how I did.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

20. Jace Peterson, IF, Grade: C+....I'm rather happy with my grade and ranking for Peterson here. I struggled when I graded him because he was having a tremendous spring at the time and was getting a lot of hype. His resume also included a pair of 40-steal seasons, though before Double-A ball. The previous season, he had slashed .307/.402/.447 and made his major league debut with the Padres. Many people felt like he was underrated based on the stats, though others - like me - felt he was overrated based on projections and scouting reports. I mentioned a future as "an utility player / second division starter." That remains likely in my opinion.

19. Dian Toscano, OF, Grade: C+....Oh, God. So, that one sucked. Even in an average farm system at the time (though deeper than when the 2014-15 offseason began), ranking Toscano this high was a mistake. First off, I broke my own rule by ranking a player who was over 25. Second, there wasn't much reason to be this excited about Toscano. I'll chalk this one up to Frank Wren overtaking my mind and soul for a few minutes.

18. Dustin Peterson, 3B, Grade: C+....It's easy to forget now, but when Peterson was acquired, there was hope the Braves finally found a third baseman of the future. That title was quickly transferred to Rio Ruiz and then Austin Riley and most recently Kevin Maitan, but when the Braves acquired Peterson in the Justin Upton trade, the hope was that he could bring stability to the position. He was pushed to left field, instead, and after a lot of struggles in the Carolina League in 2015, Peterson had a bit of a breakout summer with the Mississippi Braves. He'll be in my Top 20 this year (with a higher grade) so the future is still bright for Peterson.

17. Garrett Fulenchek, P, Grade: C+....I became a big fan of the 2014 draft - Wren's last draft. It was a slight departure from his usual drafting philosophy of smart college players with a reachable floor and low ceiling as he took two prep players in the Top 100. Fulenchek was the #66th overall pick and fit the mold the Braves coaching staff at the time loved from their pitchers - hard sinkers to set up a swing-and-miss breaking pitch. After a promising first half-season in the GCL, Fulenchek has struggled tremendously with his control over the last two seasons. He was also dealt to the Rays in July of 2015 for international slot money.

16. Mauricio Cabrera, P, Grade: C+....At the time, we didn't know if the Braves had finally decided to move Cabrera to the pen. After impressing fans and Braves coaches alike with his triple-digit heat that spring, it was clear that Cabrera was destined for a relief assignment. He would look pretty bad in 2015, but rebounded last year before a callup to the majors, where he shined. There remain questions about his control, but the stuff and velocity are both off the charts. If he can refine his skills and stay healthy, Cabrera could be a high-leverage arm for years to come.

15. Ricardo Sanchez, P, Grade: C+....When I wrote this, I had very high expectations for Sanchez which was a bit unfair to the lefty. Sanchez was a good international prospect, but he wasn't a "can't miss" guy. When the Braves acquired him, he had only been successful - impressively so - at Rookie ball. Never fall in love with a rookie league superstars, kids. Two years later, he has been hurt a good deal of the time, which has limited Sanchez to just 159 innings with Rome. Furthermore, the results just aren't where we hoped they would be. I dropped him to 17th last year and 33rd this year. There's still hope here and despite two years at A-ball, he's only turning 20 this year. That said, I probably ranked him a bit high here.

14. Jason Hursh, P, Grade: C+....Speaking of guys I ranked too high. This is a case of listening too much to the experts over following my gut. At the time, Hursh did rank highly in an improving, but still pretty bare farm system. He had the first-round pedigree and expected quick rise to the majors to go with impressive control. With a year, however, the Braves had already figured out that Hursh wasn't going to help their rotation and moved him to the pen during the second half of 2015. He did make it to the majors for two games last summer and will be in the mix for a bullpen spot this spring, but I've let my gut take over as far as his prospect status goes and Hursh didn't make my Top 50. Further, he wasn't really a bubble guy.

13. Alec Grosser, P, Grade: C+....I was aggressive with my Grosser love. He was coming off an impressive run with Danville where he struck out nearly a batter an inning with a 2.9 K/BB rate. I felt he wasn't just a sleeper, but a legit prospect. And then...he lost the strikezone. As in, he completely lost where the strikezone was. In 85.1 innings in 2015, mostly spent with Rome, he walked 65, hit 16 batters, and uncorked 26 wild pitches. He only appeared in three games with Danville the next season before being selected as the player to be named later in the Bud Norris/Toscano for Caleb Dirks/Phil Pfeifer trade and wouldn't pitch again in 2016. 

12. Jose Briceno, C, Grade: C+....Yet another example of me getting far too attached to a new addition to the system who had some brief success at the lower rungs of the minor leagues. Briceno was coming off an 84-game season in the South Atlantic League in which he hit .283/.336/.476. He was already 21, but the catcher-hungry Braves needed a prospect to believe in behind the dish and Briceno looked like he could be that guy. He spent one year in the system looking completely lost in the Carolina League before being shipped off with Andrelton Simmons to the Angels. He played in High-A, Double-A, and even briefly in Triple-A last year with a .602 overall OPS.

11. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B-....Despite the high rating, I was a bit less in love with Smith than others. He had posted absurd stolen base totals in the Padres' system and looked like a perfect leadoff hitter. As I wrote then, " My question and the reason why I'm not sold on Smith...will he hit enough?" I believe that question remains unanswered and further, I contend a second part of that question should be included - will he do enough to have enough value as an offensive player. I believe he'll walk a good deal, but will he have an empty batting average that will mute some of his value? I believe that's a bit reason some experts tabbed him as a reserve rather than a starter. That said, I grew more convinced that Smith had a good chance of being a solid player after a strong 2015 season. He'll get a chance to prove his worth in 2017 with the Rays.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #42-#31

Last week, I began my Top 50 prospects and almost immediately, the Atlanta Braves swung a deal for more prospects. So...thanks for that, John Coppolella.

I kid, but the trade forced me to change my Top 50 to a Top 52 as both players acquired jumped right into the list with one appearing in today's portion. To get me back on track, today's part of the list will be supersized to a dozen. Short of another trade, I'll release ten more next week and ten more the following week before splitting the Top 10 into two parts. I also must apologize for this post being so late. I've been sick the last few days and had trouble wrapping my head around this list. 

When I originally did my Top 50 prospect list, I had Kyle Kinman ranked #38. However, I realized he was actually 26 and I like to keep my prospect lists limited to 25-and-under and players designated as a rookie. With that said, I thought his placement was worth a mention. Lastly, please check out Gondeee's Top 30 Braves prospects that he published this week. As usual, it's a valuable read. 

42. Jonathan Morales, Catcher, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

It wasn't the season many had hoped for with Morales. After blitzing the Gulf Coast Lague (.304/.377/.511) the previous year, Morales jumped to Rome in 2016 and saw a 220 point drop in his OPS. Included was a long stretch of 41 games where he hit .151/.241/.212. That month-plus really impacted his numbers, though even if you take those games out, it was still a far cry from his 2015 run after he was a 25th round pick.

Morales has decent pop and won't strike out much. The flipside of that is he's so aggressive that he's unlikely to take many walks. Offensively, the right-handed hitter needs his hit tool to stand out and it simply did not in 2016. Defensively, though scouting reports aren't high on him, he's had solid metrics and has impressively gunned down half of the 106 baserunners that attempted to steal on him. He also played a little third and had a three-inning cameo in right field, though that was likely more for emergencies.

With the depth behind Morales, he'll be pushed up to Florida in the spring and will need a bounceback season. Obviously, by the fact I ranked him so high, I think he's capable of it. While I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as other catchers in the system, he is part of a much-improved catching depth that was non-existent two years ago.

41. Steve Janas, RHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C 

Holy groundballs! Janas has maintained a groundball rate in the minors of over 55% during his young career. In nearly 300 innings, he's given up just 14 homers. However, what holds back Janas is that he lacks a true pair of plus pitches or the velocity to push him higher on prospect lists. Nevertheless, this is a results-driven business and the results aren't too shabby for Janas.

Though he won't blow you away with heat, he can hit mid-90's. The downside of doing so is that it makes his fastball straight and easy to both see and pound. As a result, he'll sit in the low-90's with his sinker and cutter. He also has a plus changeup and an inconsistent breaking curveball. Janas was a starter until last season when he got pushed to the bullpen. 

His control and ability to generate groundballs will get him looks and his fearlessness on the mound makes him a wild card. However, the lack the stuff and strikeout ability may limit him to Quad-A filler/organizational depth similar to one of his most common comparable pitchers according to Clay Davenport's projection system - Zeke Spruill. Strangely, both righties went to high school in Marietta. Janas will get a look this spring, but with Josh Collmenter already on the team, Janas is likely going to provide long relief/swingman depth behind a talented Gwinnett rotation.

40. Chad Sobotka, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C 

Similar to A.J. Minter, the Braves drafted Sobotka in 2014 knowing that he wouldn't pitch until the next season. As opposed to Tommy John surgery like Minter had, Sobotka was coming back from a stress fracture in his back, which put an ugly end to his collegiate career with the University of South Carolina-Upstate.

His 2015 season was limited to just 37 innings and they were rarely good, but the 6'7" righty bounced back in 2016. His numbers with Rome look poor (4.26 ERA, more hits than innings pitched), but the Braves still liked what they were seeing and promoted him to Carolina. In 13 games there, Sobotka finally started to perform with a 2.04 ERA/1.51 FIP over 17.2 innings. He struck out 24 and walked just three - a far cry from the dozen he walked in just 19 innings with Rome to begin the year. By season's end, he had joined Minter in Mississippi for two appearances.

Sobotka's velocity is good, though not great. However, he gets great movement and his two-seamer can get a good number of grounders. His slider has plus-potential and while he has a changeup, he will mostly work off his fastball/slider. Sobotka could be in the majors sometime in 2017, though with just 75.2 innings as a professional, Atlanta might go slow with him. Either way, Sobotka looks like he has a shot to be a solid righty with high-leverage potential.



39. William Contreras, Catcher, 19 years-old, Grade: C+

Over two seasons, Contreras has shown that he could be capable of being a big sleeper in a system with rapidly improving catcher depth. Just 19 years-old, Contreras signed out of Venezuela and made his debut with the 2015 Dominican Summer League team. His triple slash of .314/.370/.413 was solid enough before you consider his age (17) and position.

Contreras moved up to the Gulf Coast League this year, where he shared time with Ricardo Rodriguez (acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade) and 26th rounder Alan Crowley. His numbers took a bit of a dive to .264/.346/.375. He displays a quick bat and there is some power projection.

Scouts rave about Contreras's defensive ability behind the plate and how he handles pitchers. I like his offensive potential as well. He's the type of player who could easily have a breakout campaign and jump up this list quickly. While he'll be ticketed for a stop in Danville for 2017, I do hope he plays his way up to Rome, which would further cement his prospect potential.

38. Bradley Roney, RHP, 24 years-old, Grade: C+

For three years, Roney has both excited Braves fans with big K numbers and frustrated Braves management because he often doesn't know where his pitches are going. In 67.2 innings last year in the high levels of the minor leagues, Roney struck out 88 - the most strikeouts by a Braves reliever and tied for 15th in the entire system. That strikeout rate was actually down a tad from 2015. Unfortunately, his walk rate continues to be his Achilles' heel.

In 2016, Roney issued 54 unintentional walks - a rate of about seven every nine innings. His strike percentage was about 6% below the league average. You can't survive for long doing that no matter how good his curve is - and it's really good. It's a major league quality pitch, but without pitching ahead in the count more frequently, hitters can let the curve dart below the strikezone.

Last year at this time, we looked at Mauricio Cabrera in much the same way as Roney. Sure, Cabrera had 100 mph heat and some good secondary stuff, but will he throw strikes? Cabrera was a higher rated talent, but Roney can have a similar impact on the major league roster if he can only throw strikes. No better time than 2017 to start.



37. Thomas Burrows, LHP, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

Acquired last week in the Mallex Smith trade, Burrows was the #117 pick of the 2016 draft. Before that, he became the all-time saves leader at the University of Alabama. It's easy to look over Burrows when the Braves also acquired Luiz Gohara in this deal, but Burrows has a good chance to get to the majors - and soon.

Burrows pitched in the short-season Northwest League after he was drafted and blitzed the circuit with 37 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. That comes out to a third of all batters he faced. He gave up a lot of hits, though a .367 BABIP will do that to you. The walk rate wasn't good, but competent enough to help Burrows earn a 2.88 FIP.

Burrows gets good sinking movement from his low-to-mid 90's heater and his slider improved dramatically in 2016. Lefties have a very difficult time even picking up the ball and that will likely continue to be an asset for the southpaw. Whether he can be a full-inning reliever and high-leverage asset will be something to watch as he moves up the ladder.

36. Connor Lien, OF, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

It was not the season many had hoped for Lien in 2016 - least of all the outfielder himself. In 2015, Lien burst onto the scene with a .285/.347/.415 clip in the pitching-friendly Carolina League with 36 extra-base hits and 34 steals. The season was awarded with a trip to the Arizona Fall League, which is where the video below came from

However, an early season hand injury put Lien on the shelf for over two months in 2016. The 22-year-old also struggled when he was in the field, slashing just .233/.320/.408 with a 33% strikeout rate. On the bright side, he continued to display tremendous defense in center field.

Lien possesses good pop and his defense includes an elite arm and great instincts and range. However, his bat still needs a bit more refining. The plus side is that even with his negatives last year, the .175 ISO and 9% walk rate help to put an optimistic spin on the season. He'll likely repeat Mississippi to begin 2017 and try to trend positive once again.

35. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C+

After a lost year to Tommy John surgery, Biddle will be given the chance to return and flourish in 2017. A former top prospect for the Phillies who the Braves acquired from the Pirates after the latter tried to sneak him through waivers. 

I recently wrote a scouting report about Biddle so I would rather not spend too much time rehashing it here so here are the highlights. Biddle is a former Top 100 Prospect who struggles with his release point. If he can find more consistency with it, he can get over his fastball and let the pitch work for him. His curveball has exceptional bite and is his best pitch. 

Biddle will have a shot to compete for a spot in the bigs this spring, but I imagine the Braves see 2017 as a year for Biddle to work on things rather than pressure himself with a big league assignment. A decent spring and a bill of health will allow him to begin the year in Gwinnett. If not, he could start a level lower. Regardless, Biddle could be a sneaky-good move by the Braves front office if he's able to rebound.

34. Caleb Dirks, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

After a year in the Dodgers' system, Dirks returned last year to the organization that spent a 15th round pick on him back in 2014. Not that it has mattered much to Dirks - he continues to dominate opposing hitters every step of the way.

In 143.1 innings, Dirks has a beautiful 1.32 ERA and an FIP under 3.00. He won't put up ridiculous strikeout numbers - especially for this system, but he's been close to a 30% K-rate regardless. What makes Dirk especially good is his control. He had about a 20% difference between his strikeouts and walks - an elite number worth celebrating.

Dirks doesn't have the best stuff and his velocity won't wow anyone, but he knows how to throw his pitches and hits his spots. Last year, that was especially true because about 43% of his pitches came with Dirks ahead in the count. The average is roughly 6-7% lower. Dirks may lack the ceiling of some relieving prospects the Braves have, but as long as he continues to pitch like he has, he'll have his opportunity to impress.

33. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Year 2 of Ricardo's time with the Braves was much healthier than his 10-start 2015 campaign, but the results remained underwhelming for the teenager who won't turn 20 until April 11. The last fact gives the Braves hope that 2017 will be the year Sanchez begins to scratch the surface of his talent.

Talent and stuff-wise, Sanchez can excite you on a good day with low 90's heat and a very good curveball. His delivery is smooth and he adds a developing changeup that often can make or break him on any given day depending on his feel for the pitch.

Sanchez is trying to put it all together. He's prone to a big inning and can sometimes lose focus. Undersized, Sanchez can resemble a bulldog when in trouble as he tries to get out of jams. He's a competitor and a strong worker - he just needs to be more consistent. It's hard to get noticed in this system if you weren't a #1 pick, but Sanchez has the stuff to be a sleeper in 2017.




32. Lucas Herbert, Catcher, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Kolby Allard's catcher in high school, Herbert was picked in the second round of the 2015 draft. Many assumed the Braves were hedging their bets in order to keep Allard from going to college rather than signing. However, I thought the Braves really liked what Herbert brought to the table and felt he was worth the pick. To this point, we haven't seen the results to support that contention.

It's early, yes, and Herbert was aggressively moved to Low-A Rome probably before he was ready. As a result, only 12 of the 367 PA he logged last year came against pitchers younger than him. Herbert struggled last year to find the right stance, the right setup with his hands, the right amount of batting gloves. He seems to me like a batter that really needs to rework much of what he does at the plate. If he can find consistency at the plate, his plus power will be a weapon and could be the difference between a starting and backup role in the majors should he get there.

Defensively, Herbert is a tremendous force behind the plate. He's incredibly athletic and shows great footwork along with great instincts at reading the ball. These skills will give him a chance to stick around even if his bat is still lagging behind, but I do hope the Braves show a bit more patience with him. He clearly did not appear ready for Rome and could use a return assignment. However, with so many catchers now in the system, finding at-bats for all of them is becoming a bit more difficult. Still, Herbert's power and defense are worth an extended look.


31. Ray-Patrick Didder, Outfield, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

The converted infielder had spent three years at rookie ball showing a good idea of the strikezone, but not much else. That changed in 2016 when the now center fielder settled into the position with Rome. In nearly 600 plate appearances, Didder posted a .361 wOBA with the aid of a .387 OBP. He added a .107 ISO to go with 37 steals.

One thing that stands out quickly about Didder is that he trusts his hands enough to crowd the plate. Last year, he was hit 39 times, the most in minor league baseball. While he has great speed, he's still developing an eye for when to steal. Defensively, he's a surprisingly rather good there despite being a middle infielder only a few years ago. He has the range to play center with a strong and accurate arm.

Up until this point, Didder has been about league average in age each year. That might change this year as a strong start with the Fire Frogs could get the 22-year-old promoted to Mississippi by summer. Such a move would cement his place as a strong outfield prospect. Either way, if Didder keeps developing like he did last year, the Braves will be very pleased with the Arubian native.

2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.

Braves Trade Mallex, Get Stud Left-Hander

Twice this offseason, the Atlanta Braves have grouped major-league ready assets for higher-ceiling prospects. On Wednesday, they did it a third time as they acquired lefthanders Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows for right-handed reliever Shae Simmons and speedy outfielder Mallex Smith. The latter spent all of two minutes with the Mariners before being re-packaged in a deal to Tampa Bay. The two minutes might be a bit hyperbolic.

Much like the trades that saw the Braves acquire Luke and Alex Jackson (no relation), this trade is all about going for the elite prospect - in this case, Gohara. For years, the lefty made talent evaluators excited about his future, but the Brazillian southpaw struggled to find his way. While last year was his Age-19 season, it was his fourth year already in professional ball. It was also his best.

For the second consecutive season, he split time with Everett in the short-season A Northwest League and Clinton in the A-ball Midwest League - however, he flipped the script by spending the bulk of his time with Clinton after doing the opposite in 2015. The lefty set new highs in innings pitched (69.2) and strikeouts (81) while lowering his walk rate about 4%. His FIP in the 2.50's was nearly two runs lower than the previous year.

Gohara works off mid-90's heat and his secondary pitches took a step forward in 2016. His slider has strikeout potential at the major league level and his changeup could be good enough to keep hitters from being able to key into his fastball - which is not just fast, but comes with a good deal of movement. To this point, he has carried strong groundball numbers throughout the minors and in a superb pitching system, he won't get lost if he pitches up to his ability. In some ways, his acquisition reminds me of Ricardo Sanchez two years ago - except Gohara is more developed at the time of the deal.

Burrows essentially gives the Braves another 2016 draft choice. Picked #117 last year out of the University of Alabama where he is the career saves leader, Burrows spent his summer in Everett where he struck out 33.3% of opposing hitters. The walk rate will need to be cleaned up (10%), but all in all, it was a successful first year for the lefty complete with a 2.88 FIP.

A relief-only option, Burrows doesn't have big-time heat with low-to-mid 90's velocity, but gets great movement out of a 3/4's delivery which helps to create a natural sink to the pitch. The fact that he stands on the first-base side of the rubber also helps add sweeping motion. His second pitch, a low 80's slider, looked much better in his senior season, which helped to push him up the draft.

Make no mistake, though. This deal was about Gohara. It cost the Braves a pair of pieces that could have helped the 2017 team. Simmons came onto the scene in 2014 as a mid-90's pitcher with a solid breaking pitch. Immediately, he was compared to then-Braves closer Craig Kimbrel for his potential dominance on the mound. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, limited the righty to just seven games over the last two seasons. Expected to compete for a bullpen spot, Simmons still had a chance to put himself in line to be a closer one day with the Braves before this deal was completed. Nevertheless, the Braves have a large collection of potential bullpen arms, which I recently wrote about. Losing Simmons, while unfortunate, won't change that.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], 

On the other hand, losing Mallex Smith could hurt - in the short term. Depending on who you talked to or read, Smith had a chance to be a top-of-the-lineup center fielder with good on-base skills. Or, he could be a solid fourth outfielder. The Braves may have counted on the latter and that's a fair assumption. They also probably looked at a fairly undeniable aspect of roster construction - regardless of his talent, Smith was not a good fit for the Braves. While he could be a more valuable player than either Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis - especially if he moved Ender Inciarte to a corner - Smith was not right for Atlanta when you consider how little power the team would have with Inciarte and Ozzie Albies joining Smith in the everyday lineup presumably at some point. While I did like what Smith could provide in a fourth outfielder/defensive caddy/late inning substitution role, it would have muted his potential value simply because the nature of the roster was against him.

It's a bonus that the Braves acquired a player of Gohara's stature, though. Further, this trade opened up a pair of spots on the 40-man roster without losing talent for nothing. That gives Braves general manager John Coppolella increased flexibility to make a move both via trade and free agency, which has seen the market crash for several 2-to-5-win players. They might be willing to accept some bargain prices and not having to worry about the 40-man roster only makes that easier.

This trade is not too dissimilar from another trade from earlier this offseason. Like Smith, Tyrell Jenkins was a well-liked youngster who was one of the first building blocks for a rebuilding team two years ago. And then, without an inkling of a rumor, Jenkins was traded. Since then, we have seen Jenkins' believed value plummet. I don't see the same thing happening to Smith, but Jenkins' case might be a good reminder that our objectivity in regards to our favorite team's prospects is often skewed. Smith has a good chance to have a solid major league career, but was he going to be a difference maker? It's unlikely. The same can be said for Simmons. While Gohara is a lot further away than those two, the Braves continued to side with upside over depth. It's a big reason the front office has remade this farm system into a talent-rich cadre of players and Gohara - and Burrows - only enhances that.

Will January Bring a Big Piece for the Braves?

K. Johnson, Spring 2016 By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

January is typically a time where baseball teams are thinking depth. Last January, Atlanta signed Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, Alexi Ogando, and Kelly Johnson in January. The year before, they traded for Manny Banuelos, Ricardo Sanchez, and signed Kelly Johnson. I'm just saying there is a theme and it includes signing Kelly Johnson. Who is currently a free agent. Again, I'm just saying.

Moving along, January of 2015 also had a big move - the Mike Foltynewicz/Rio Ruiz for Evan Gattis trade. Such a big deal relatively late in the process made me wonder - how rare is it to have a potentially franchise-altering move in January?

Well, two years before the Gattis move, the Braves put the finishing touches on the seven-player mega deal that brought Justin Upton to the Braves in January of 2013. In 2009, the Braves signed both Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami to large free agent failures contracts in the first month of the new year. And in 2007, Atlanta traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez. Finally, January of 2002 was a big one and not just because the Braves traded for Kevin Gryboski. Three days before that, they acquired Gary Sheffield.

Most of the time, however, January is a month for finishing touches to the roster. It's a month where you sign George Sherrill to shore up your bullpen or add a stopgap first baseman like Robert Fick or Troy Glaus. When the aforementioned franchise-altering move does happen, it generally is a result of a long negotiation that finally ended in January.

Will this be a quiet January or a surprising one with a big free agent signing or trade acquisition? I must lean toward the former. While a formal budget is not public, Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates that the Braves have committed $110M toward this year's roster. After you add in non-arbitration players, you are looking at around $120 million in payroll. That would be a significant climb over last year's opening day roster ($87M according to Cot's) and around $8 million more than their previous opening day high set in 2014.

Of course, the new ballpark plays a big role here. In 2010, the aptly named newballpark.org found that a new stadium gives a team, on average, the ability to increase payroll by 14% hike. The Braves will blow past that finding if they open the year with a $120 million opening day roster. That would come out to about a 38% increase in payroll from 2016 (according to Cot's). Of course, many have made the convincing argument that the opening day roster in 2016 was intentionally low to spend more richly on amateurs via the draft ($15M or so) and international market (another $15M or so).

Also likely to keep the Braves from spending richly this January is the fact that it's tough to find room for added talent. In mid-December, after the winter meetings concluded, I previewed the 25-man roster. What became very clear was how packed this roster is with options at nearly every position. Aside from catcher, where there is a clear battle between two players to become next year's backup, it's tough to find a potential roster battle where they isn't already five or more players competing for a spot. To add more talent to the mix would only make it even more difficult for the team to award a player with a spot on the roster following a big spring.

Further, considering the hefty prices teams have paid this offseason in trades and for free agents, should the Braves be targeting a big addition anyway?

Nevertheless, here I am - looking at Matt Wieters again. It's been a long offseason for the former Orioles backstop. Baltimore not only passed on giving Wieters a qualifying offer for a second consecutive year, they decided to move on. The Minnesota Twins opted for Jason Castro for $24.5 million rather than show interest in Wieters. Wilson Ramos received a make-good $12.5 million contract. The Nationals traded for Derek Norris.

Other teams seem like potential fits for the catcher, including the Rockies and Diamondbacks, but the one team that has seemed like the logical spot for Wieters during the whole process has been Atlanta. As an up-and-coming team with a less-than-ideal catching situation, the Braves seem like the perfect squad to buy a Wieters lottery ticket.

Of course, much of that is due to Wieters being a southeast guy. He was born in South Carolina and became a star at Georgia Tech. So, theoretically, that makes him destined to play for the Braves at some point. Could that some point be in 2017? It's certainly possible, but realistically, a lot will have to happen to get to that point.

The Braves will essentially need a major bargain with a short-term commitment, possibly just one year. Put yourself in Wieters' shoes for a second. Ignoring everything about how you think Atlanta might finish in 2017, there is a one major problem that might make you shy away from playing in Atlanta. This season will be the first year of SunTrust Park. While there are many theories about how the park will play for hitters, do we really know? Even with the geographic advantages of playing closer to his childhood home and his old college stomping grounds, the thought of an unknown variable like how SunTrust will play has to weigh on Wieters' mind.

In addition, the Braves will have to look at the cons that come with Wieters. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Wieters has slashed .253/.309/.414 with a .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. This is particularly troublesome when you consider his defense - once a calling card - has eroded considerably.

Wieters was once one of the top figures in rSB, or Stolen Base Runs Above Average. That's a long-winded way of saying that rSB looks at how successful the catcher was, compared to the average, at preventing stolen bases. Tyler Flowers was a -7 last year. Wieters was a 0 - or straight up average. That's exactly where he was in 2015 when he came back from injury. To be fair, his numbers started to fall in 2013 and cratered in 2014 before he went under the knife. In terms of DRS, we see a similar fall from grace. Between 2010-12, Weiters had 40 DRS. Since? -8.

And then, there is pitch framing. Since 2012, Wieters has finished below average in each year. Last year, among catchers who received at least 3000 pitches, Wieters finished 38th - right behind A.J. Pierzynski. Teams have gotten the memo over the last few years and now believe that catching defense and pitch framing metrics have a lot of value. Castro didn't get $25 million because of his bat after all.

Despite all of his cons, could the Braves and Wieters match up and could Atlanta go for the rare big January deal? Certainly, but Wieters (and his super agent Scott Boras) will have to accept that the team will be getting what they want more so than the player. He's going to have to take a considerable pay cut to come to Atlanta. When I say considerable, I do mean considerable. Wieters played for nearly $16 million last year. He'll likely have to accept about half of that. Meanwhile, Wieters will have to know that the Braves already have a catcher they like in Flowers and were only signing Wieters because he fell into their lap at the last second. That means the Braves will likely give Flowers a good deal of playing time and with the latter's defensive metrics, the time share may resemble a platoon.

So why sign Wieters at all, you might ask? Because there is a chance in the right situation that his bat plays up once again. While Wieters never reached the hype he had when he reached the majors, he still slashed .265/.319/.420 his first 657 games in the majors - a good slash for any catcher. That includes a .322 wOBA and 97 wRC+. In 514 career games, Flowers has a .232/.302/.384 triple slash with a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Of course, since 2013, Flowers has been better than Wieters at the plate, but the latter still has some promise.

In the end, a love connection between the Braves and Wieters doesn't seem likely. One has to think that the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or another squad I haven't mentioned will send Wieters a better one-year offer than the Braves would be comfortable with. But as the Braves move through the first month, if they are going to strike it big, the smart money is on gambling on Wieters right now.