-->
Showing posts with label Flowers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Flowers. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Organizational Overview: Catcher

WhatProsWear
Yesterday, we began a series looking at the best prospects by position starting with catcher, but I'd be remiss if we didn't also look at where the Braves stand at catcher right now. After all, just because a position is a strength in the minors doesn't need help right now. Conversely, a position like first base looks pretty weak in the minors, but the Braves aren't that interested in addressing that because of who they have in the majors.

This series of articles will look at both the recent past - especially 2017 - and the foreseeable future. It will take into account the current major league roster, the current depth in the minors, and the future of the position. Think of this series as a way to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a roster before attempting to fix problems moving forward. I will use some of the information I already released about the current roster makeup as a reminder.

Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Current Projection: $7.5M

On a roster in flux, there is some degree of stability behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will almost certainly be brought back for 2018 and once again will be paired with Kurt Suzuki. We will get to the details on how effective this duo was in 2017, but it's very important to remember that the price per value here is exceptionally high. The Braves are essentially paying the price for a medium-grade starter for two catchers who are capable of being starters in the majors. However, both are probably better for the time share they played under last season. Catchers are naturally prone to breaking down as the season progresses, but the Braves avoided that by having their duo share the load.

The other 40-man options right now are unlikely to be in the mix by opening day. Freitas is Triple-A filler while Sanchez, more known for his defense, didn't even catch an inning after being acquired at the waiver-trade deadline.

Comparison - The Majors

The duo of Flowers and Suzuki lack the name recognition and neither will be All-Stars in 2018, but for one year, they gave the Braves the best production from behind the plate in the league. Only four teams received at least 4 WAR from their catchers in 2017 and only the Braves pushed over the 5 WAR cliff - finishing with 5.1 fWAR to be exact. They were tied for fourth in homers, third in ISO, first in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Defensively, they were slightly below-average - largely because Flowers gives up defensive value for framing - something he's the best at in baseball.

Because the Braves can keep both Flowers and Suzuki moving forward, the position looks to have zero upheaval heading into 2018. It might be a pipe dream to expect the Braves to get another 5-win season from their catchers - it was shocking that it happened once - but both Flowers and Suzuki credit Kevin Seitzer for their improvements at the plate and the Braves certainly could bring back Seitzer for another season. That would keep a good team together for another year, though the Braves are rumored to look at some considerable alterations to their coaching staff despite bringing back Brian Snitker.

Regardless, the Braves should rank among the top 10 or so teams heading into 2018 behind the plate even if individually, both of their catchers are ranked much lower. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Marlins, and possibly the Mariners should all rank ahead of them on the strength of their number one catcher. The Orioles and Tigers, a combined 7.2 fWAR between them, will be tasked with rebuilding their catching situation. Welington Castillo could return to the Orioles, but after a big year, he'll likely seek out a long-term deal rather than come back on a player's option while the Tigers already dealt Alex Avila last season.

Obviously, there are a lot of dominoes that will fall this offseason, but the fact the Braves have two respectable catchers who put up the kind of numbers that they did in 2017 makes this position a strength heading into 2018 compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - Immediate Depth

I don't want you to get the wrong idea - this is simply what kind of depth is already projected to be in the minors who could be on the major league roster when the season opens next year. The Braves have a lot of catching prospects - and I'll get back to them - but their best prospects are not likely going to be in the mix next April. However, the Braves do have Kade Scivicque and that isn't the worst thing in the world. Scivicque missed our Top 5, but is probably a Top 50 prospect in this loaded system so don't sleep on him. He doesn't project as much more than a backup in the majors, but is smart and capable behind the plate. He has some gap power and while aggressive at the plate, will make enough solid contact to possibly post a good average if the BABIP allow it.

The Braves could bring back Freitas or Sanchez for more depth and they also have Sal Giardina and Joseph Odom, who both appeared in Gwinnett last year. Neither, however, project as much more than organizational filler and the Braves don't need Freitas or the rarely utilized Sanchez. Beyond them, you have last year's Double-A duo of Jonathan Morales and Alex Jackson. Morales is a lot like Giardina and Odom, but Jackson is a legit prospect if he can stay behind the plate. Actually, with his bat, he's a legit prospect anywhere, but he brings more value as a catcher. Reports were mixed about Jackson, but he did appear to look much more comfortable as the season progressed after moving from the outfield. If he continues to respond to coaching, Jackson could be knocking on the door sometime next summer. Despite not being in the mix when the season opens, Jackson is still slated to open 2018 in Gwinnett if only because that's where the at-bats because there's so much depth behind him. Even if an injury opened a spot in the bigs, I think Scivicque is ahead of Jackson for the time being, but at some point in 2018, that's going to change.

I'd classify the immediate depth as average, but trending up.

Comparison - The Future

The Braves might not have any of their catchers make one of the big Top 100 Prospects list this winter, but the depth here is off-the-charts. I already mentioned Jackson, and he received the most points for our top catching prospect in our recent list. The great thing about the catching depth is that it's spread out pretty well. Here's a brief projection with the Top 5 catching prospects and others that likely will be in the mix.

Gwinnett: Alex Jackson (#1), Kade Scivicque (Honorable mention), Joseph Odom.
Mississippi: Brett Cumberland (#3), Jonathan Morales, Sal Giardina
Florida: Lucas Herbert (#5), Carlos Martinez, Tanner Murphy
Rome: William Contreras (#2), Hagen Owenby
Danville: Abrahan Gutierrez (#4), Alan Crowley, Zack Soria

Not too shabby. The best combinations of offense/defense of the group are likely 2-3 years away in Contreras and Gutierrez, but there's a pair of good offensive talents in Herbert and Cumberland with a lottery ticket in Herbert mixed in whose bat could develop well enough to increase his prospect standing. This list does not include Drew Lugbauer, who was classified as a first basemen due to where he played the most. Still, Lugbauer gives the Braves another possibility even if it's as a part-time catcher/corner infielder coming off the bench.

No matter how you slice it, the future is a major strength for the Braves and likely one of the best catching prospect situations in baseball - if not the best.

The Big Picture

When it comes to the catcher position, there are few teams in a better position than the Braves. Sure, the chances of the Braves having the best production in baseball from their catchers in 2018 is not high, but there's also a strong chance that both Flowers and Suzuki perform well enough to lead the Braves to a solid season from behind the plate. The coming attractions, though, is where the Braves turn the catcher position into something special. It's hard not to think the Braves should be good behind the plate for the next decade.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Where the Braves Sit Right Now

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
We could sit here for some time and keep talking about the surprising dismissal of John Coppolella, in-fighting between the remaining John's (Hart and Schuerholz), the possibility of pending sanctions, and so on. And you can be sure we will address more of that when the information is available. However, like it or not, the 2017-18 Hot Stove is warming up and it's time to start looking at next year's roster.

The Braves used 49 players in 2017 - down from the 60 utilized in both of the last two seasons. Part of that was a little better luck injury-wise, but the big reason the Braves used fewer players was that they were saying the days of random players you forgot were still playing were over. With depth increasing at Triple-A, the Braves were calling on an increasingly younger collection of talent as the season progressed. Of the eleven starters they used, eight were younger than 27. The Braves were looking to the future in many regards to their player usage.

Let's take a gander at what the roster makeup for 2018 looks like right now. This is just for general information as regardless of what happens when Major League Baseball finishes their investigation, the Braves will still be active in the trade market. They'll still sign free agents. The roster will change from what it currently looks like and life will eventually get back to normal.

Speaking of free agents, the weird thing about this team is that they really only have one major league free agent. A lot of the player movement will actually come from non-tenders and trades as the Braves look to open up room on their 40-man roster.

For what it's worth, my arbitration estimates are based on similar arbitration agreements from last winter. We may take a much more robust look at arbitration-eligible players later on, but for now, I used last year's results to help guide me. For players mentioned in the coming attractions, I'm limiting it to guys I project appearing in the majors next year if healthy and productive. Each renewal is given a $545,000 contract for 2018. Some will make more while some will make less due to the nature of split contracts and earning a different salary in the minors.

Starting Pitchers
Signed: Julio Teheran ($8M)
Arbitration: Mike Foltynewicz ($2.25M -Taijuan Walker, First Year, Super 2)
Renewal: Aaron Blair, Luis Gohara, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler
Option: R.A. Dickey ($8M team option, $500K buyout)
Free Agent: None (yay!)
Coming Attractions: Kolby Allard, Tyler Pike, Mike Soroka

There is a lot of depth here, though just as many question marks. Teheran and Foltynewicz both had good stretches during the season, but each struggled for the majority of the year. Gohara and Newcomb have the stuff, but will they consistently throw it for strikes? Is Sims better suited for the bullpen? Are Blair and Wisler done for? And will the Braves bring back Dickey?

I've been struck with how confident people are that the Braves aren't looking at possibly bringing in a big arm. This rotation, as its currently constructed, could be good, but the questions are far too numerous for me to be very bullish on that prospect. As far as Dickey goes, I imagine the Braves decline his option if he's still iffy on returning on 2018 and tell him that they'll be interested in bringing him back if he changes his mind. In the meantime, they'll start to kick the tires on a big move to stabilize the rotation.

Current Projection: $13.475 million

Relief Pitchers
Signed: Jim Johnson ($4.5M)
Arbitration: Rex Brothers ($1.42M - Rex Brothers :), Third Year), Sam Freeman ($908K - Evan Scribner, First Year), Ian Krol ($1.275M - Blake Wood, 2nd Year), Arodys Vizcaino ($2.55M - Jake Diekman, Third Year, Super 2), Daniel Winkler ($850K - Bruce Rondon, First Year)
Renewal: Jacob Lindgren, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, 
Free Agent: Jason Motte
Coming Attractions: Phil Pfeifer, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts, Caleb Dirks

Don't be fooled by so many names (nearly 20) - the bullpen will need some work. For starters, there are at least two non-tenders here with Brothers and Krol - and yes, I used Brothers as an arbitration comp for himself. In addition, many of the names in the renewal department have issues either from injury (Lindgren, Biddle, Rivero) or bad-to-average 2017 numbers (Cabrera, Hursh, Jackson). That leaves Johnson, Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, and Ramirez along with safe arbitration keepers like Freeman and Winkler. While there are some reinforcements mixed in, the Braves will likely want to find a couple of established arms to help out.

Current Projection: $13.713 million

Catchers
Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Coming Attractions: Kade Scivicque and Alex Jackson

Freitas and Sanchez will likely be designated for assignment soon so don't expect them to stick around. Before the Coppy mess, reports were that picking up Flowers' option was as good as done. That is likely still the plan because the value in comparison to the price is so high here. Catcher might be the easiest position to pencil in.

Current Projection: $7.5M

Infield
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21M)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3M - Lonnie Chisenhall, Third Year), Jace Peterson ($885K - Tim Beckham, First Year)
Renewal: Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz
Coming Attractions: Travis Demeritte, Austin Riley, Luis Valenzuela

Three of the four starting spots should be locked up with a number of cheap options for third base to fill out the infield. For what it's worth, I imagine the Braves will go cheap at third base, but there certainly is a chance they could get involved in some of the higher price options. One possible connection could formulate if Dayton Moore takes the Braves job and wants to bring Mike Moustakas with him. The arbitration cases here are both interesting. I wrote the other day that if the market doesn't develop for Adams - and I think there is a good chance it doesn't - I'd rather keep him than lose him for nothing. Peterson's poor play the last two years makes him a non-tender candidate, but a strong finish (.325/.460/.475 over his last 50 PA) may have bought him another year. He'll be out of options, but the Braves may see him as worth the investment. I don't foresee any coming attractions pushing their way on the roster this spring, but all three could appear in Atlanta by late summer next year.

Current Projection: $28.91 million

Outfield
Signed: Matt Kemp ($21.5M), Nick Markakis ($10.5M), Ender Inciarte ($4M)
Arbitration: Danny Santana ($600K, Ehire Adrianza, First Year)
Renewal: Lane Adams, Micah Johnson
Coming Attractions: Ronald Acuna, Dustin Peterson

The Braves will try to trade one of the corner outfielders this winter to open a spot for Acuna, which they may find easier said than done. As for Santana, he seems a goner due to his poor play after joining the Braves. This position isn't quite as easy to forecast as catcher, but we know there is probably going to be a mix of Inciarte, Acuna, and a veteran to be named later (likely Kemp). Micah Johnson rarely got a chance to play in Atlanta after being designated for assignment on twitter several weeks ago. Lane Adams, on the other hand, played his way into the mix to begin 2018.

Current Projection: $37.09 million

Other consideration: $2.75 million from the Padres

Roster Projection: $97.938 million

Note that this roster projection is just an estimate based both on salary arbitration figures that could be wrong and renewals that may or may not happen. Chances are that the player payroll projection right now is a bit lower than I have it, but I believe my total is a nice jumping off point.

So, let's try to put that nearly $98 million into perspective. Since 2014, the Braves have had opening day payrolls of $112M, $97M, $87M, and $123M. The last total was also last season when the Braves opened SunTrust Park. That gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that the Braves have a low-end player payroll cap of $120 million with a higher-end estimate of $130M. I'll take the difference and say that next year's cap is likely around $125 million.

Recall that the nearly $98 million total I gave you doesn't include Dickey's option and does include a number of non-tenders. The Braves may elect to go away from what I am predicting. They may also choose to non-tender someone like Matt Adams. The other way they could cut salary here is via trades - especially involving a corner outfielder. The best-case scenario involves dealing Kemp. Now, just dealing the outfielder won't add $21.5 million to the potential spending money for the Braves as they would almost certainly have to include money to facilitate a deal. But say they have to include $20M in two equal installments over the next two seasons - that's still $10M less on 2018's payroll. That's a really good reliever or two pretty good relievers.

Obviously, it's difficult to look at the future offseason because of the front office turmoil and it's unlikely to be resolved very soon. That said, there's still a team to build for 2018 and by my count, the Braves are looking at between $20 million and $30 million of spending room before the Hot Stove is actually, ya know, hot. That may not seem like a lot - the Braves spent nearly $26 million on Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Sean Rodriguez for 2017 (minus whatever the Pirates paid for Rodriguez) - but if spent much more wisely, the investment could bring big-time dividends for the Braves as they look to turn the page.

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Braves Bring Back Suzuki

I can't say that I was a fan of acquiring Kurt Suzuki last January.
At the time, it seemed just as useful to bring a couple of journeymen catchers to camp to compete with Anthony Recker for the backup job. But someone saw something in Suzuki and fortunately for the Braves, Kevin Seitzer and Suzuki quickly meshed as a combo. The Braves hitting coach worked with Suzuki to alter his swing during practice. After a great deal of work, Suzuki found power he had never shown in previous seasons. For instance, from 2013 to the end of 2016, Suzuki hit 21 homers with a .102 ISO in 1671 plate appearances. Entering play Saturday, Suzuki had hit 18 home runs this season in 287 plate appearances with a .255 ISO.

This newfound success for a guy who was still without a job on January 21 of this year has been astounding. For a signing that angered many because they passed on Matt Wieters, Suzuki has turned into one of John Coppolella's gems. In addition to setting a personal high in home runs, Suzuki will post just his second season of a 100 rRC+ or better along with his second 2-win season since 2009. While his framing continues to be below-average, his other defensive metrics are positive even if he's not throwing out too many runners.

The question turns to how likely Suzuki is to repeat his success in 2018. Well, the answer is not likely, but that's not necessarily going to make this extension not worth the investment. Beyond the price tag, which is a reported $3.5 million base salary, Suzuki has made some adjustments that could lead to continued success in 2018 even if the catcher falls back to Earth a bit. The Braves like to swing as a team and be aggressive at the plate, which may have worked in Suzuki's favor. He grew up in the A's organization, one that preaches patience. While I prefer the approach, it doesn't work for everyone. This season, Suzuki has swung at 53% of all pitches seen, roughly 9% higher than his career rate. With a better swing in general, more swings should lead to better contact and that is exactly what we have seen. With a 34% hard-hit rate, he's 7% above his career average. Finally, Suzuki's not necessarily hitting the ball much harder (about a 2mph average exit velocity better than 2016), but he is making a higher quality of contact. Last year, he averaged 2.1 barrels per plate appearance, ranked 377th. This year, it's up 5.6 brls/PA - or 122nd right behind Corey Seager.

Further, a lot of the so-called luck stats don't apply here. The big one is BABIP and Suzuki is actually below his career average. It's also worth mentioning that his swing mechanics have also led to a higher pull rate, which depending on the player can be a good or bad thing. When it comes to Suzuki, it's difficult to think it's anything but good at this point. He's also put a stop to three years of a below 40% flyball rate. A lot was written earlier this season about Yonder Alonso's flyball rate, which was leading to big power numbers. Suzuki upped his flyball rate 10% in one year and 9% over his career average. The changes at the plate have led to a lot of positive results and to some degree, these results could be sustainable.

To some degree. It would be foolish to expect Suzuki to continue to post a .255 ISO. But it's not foolish to expect Suzuki to post good numbers in 2018, even if it will be his Age-34 season. With Tyler Flowers likely to return after his $4M option is picked up, the Braves have a pair of catchers returning who have combined for a 4.5 fWAR. This situation is perfect for the Braves, who have a wealth of catching brewing in the system led by Alex Jackson, who is likely to open 2018 in Gwinnett.

When Suzuki signed in January, I was indifferent. Now that he's signed an extension, I'm shocked by how little it ultimately cost the Braves. It goes to show that sometimes, the right situation trumps money and playing time.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: September Callups with a Gohara Spotlight

With September call-ups in full swing, I decided to do something a little different today and give you guys a super-sized transaction recap that includes today's moves. Usually, I review the last week, but not include the day I publish the recap. However, with there likely being so few moves to go over for the next few weeks - and a big one in today's recap - let's dive into the last eight days.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 29 to September 5. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
(Stephen went over the Brandon Phillips trade and I also profiled Tony Sanchez, who joined the roster on September 1.)

Promoted from Gwinnett: Rex Brothers...I once made the FIP argument about Jim Johnson. I learned my lesson. Despite Brothers' decent-enough FIP of 3.84 compared to his 6.88 ERA, I'm not buying Brothers as a good option for the bullpen.

G-Braves Media
SPOTLIGHT Promoted from Gwinnett: Luiz Gohara (#8)...I loved the trade to go get Gohara, but even I'm shocked by how much he cruised through the minors. This is a guy who had made 12 appearances at low-A coming into this season. My hope was that he would spend half of the year in Florida before a promotion up the ladder to Mississippi. That would put him on a trajectory for a midseason-2018 ETA, but the Braves said "hold my beer" and pushed him to the moon. To his credit, Gohara only responded to such an aggressive push.

In seven starts with Florida, Gohara dominated the Florida State League with a sub-2.00 ERA and over a K an inning. That got Gohara a call-up to Mississippi and despite leaving his first start and spending a week on the DL, Gohara kept rolling with a 2.60 ERA and 60 K's in 52 innings before heading to Gwinnett. There, he logged 35.1 ING over seven starts with 48 K's. Now, he's in the majors. I forgot to say, "Hi, Jerry DiPoto!"

Gohara mixes easy mid-to-late 90 mph heat with a slider that is just a beautiful thing to watch. You can judge how much a slider bites on the kind of stats we get in the majors, but the best way of judging it in in the minors is to watch hitters look mystified and Gohara's slider has that effect on hitters. The reason why Gohara is now in the majors, though, is the improvement we've seen with his changeup. It's not near the other two pitches in effectiveness, but it's good enough now for Gohara to throw with confidence. Without that improvement, we don't see Gohara this year.

The biggest thing with Gohara, no pun intended, is the weight. Can he keep it a manageable level? One of the worst-kept secrets in baseball is that Gohara isn't close to the 210 pounds his bio says he is. If he can't keep his weight from becoming a problem, it could limit him long-term. That said, he's going to have access to the best trainers and dietitians money can buy now that he's reached the majors. If he keeps the weight at pudgy instead of fat, he could be a frontline arm in the major leagues.

Promoted from Gwinnett: David Freitas...If, before the season, you tried to come up with a group of Braves who would make their major league debut this season, Freitas would not be on your list. The former 2010 15th rounder out of Hawaii got his shot because of an injury and despite Sanchez's acquisition, it's Freitas who continues to receive some playing time as Kurt Suzuki's backup. Part of that is due to his familiarity with the young Braves' arms. Nevertheless, Freitas may receive the Anthony Recker-treatment and stick around all offseason hoping the Braves don't add another catcher via free agency.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Max Fried (#21)...Fried was used all kinds of wrong in his earlier promotion, but the Braves brought him back in a starter role and he did just fine against the defending World Champions, limiting the Cubs to one run on four hits over five innings. He struck out four and picked off a batter. Fried will continue to get looks in the rotation moving forward as the Braves search for answers for the 2018 staff.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Micah Johnson...What a crazy few days it's been for Johnson. He was twitter designated for assignment on Friday. What's that, you may ask? That's when you find out via twitter of a transaction involving you. The Braves later said they weren't DFAing Johnson, though it clearly was thought about. Instead, he was in the lineup for Gwinnett the next day and hit a homer. Now, on Tuesday, he received a promotion to the big leagues and looks like he'll stick around for the rest of the season.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Rio Ruiz (#25)...On one side, Ruiz had a worse 2017 than he did 2016 with Gwinnett as his AVG and OBP were quite a bit lower. On the other hand, his ISO was much improved and in the end, it left him with a .341 wOBA compared to the .342 wOBA he posted with the G-Braves the previous season. Ruiz received some playing time with the major league team earlier this year and now, he seems poised to receive the lion-share of playing time for the rest of the season. The .270 BABIP will climb and with it, his batting average. He's walking at a nice rate and has flashed some renewed power since rejoining the team last week. The Braves are looking for a reason not to spend a lot of money or prospects on a third baseman this winter. Whatever Ruiz does this month will help them in deciding which way they go.

Activated: Johan Camargo (#23)...Camargo, Take 2 begins with the cannon-armed youngster having lost his shortstop gig following Dansby Swanson's resurgence. He's not even being handed the third base job after Phillips was traded as the Braves appear committed to getting a long look at Ruiz. And that's probably for the best. Camargo was off to a great start, but the league re-wrote the scouting report during the All-Star Break and since, Camargo was hitting .247/.291/.395. True, that's a small sample size of 86 PA. As was his successful run of 111 PA. Somewhere in the middle of these two distinct splits is the actual Camargo and that's not to slight the player. He's improved quite a lot since last year and looks to be a major league player. However, do I think he's an everyday starter, even at third where I do believe his defense is much better suited? Not really, but I also wouldn't be too upset if the Braves go with Ruiz/Camargo heading into 2018 because I believe the duo can work out for Atlanta.

Activated: Adonis Garcia...He's hitting .245/.280/.348. The other day, someone tried to argue that keeping Garcia over Micah Johnson was the better move because of options. Foolishly, I failed to reply, "He's hitting .245/.280/.348. That's not an option." Granted, it's a little trolling because he was speaking of minor league options, but still. Joke. Landed.

Activated: Luke Jackson...The best thing about Jackson this season has been his sitcom-worthy bromance with Lane Adams. That's probably not something you should say about a major league pitcher. He's still only 26, but Jackson throws one of the most boring 95 mph fastballs in the league.

Activated: Ian Krol...I don't even want to talk about this anymore.

Activated and put on 60-day DL: Danny Santana...Apparently, Santana is still struggling with a quad injury and after being activated off the disabled list, the Braves thought better and placed Santana on the 60-day DL. That's just fine in my book as Santana has played too much since joining the Braves. Since being acquired, Santana has a .245 OBP and over a month of action before hitting the DL, he played in 27 games (10 starts) while slashing .161/.175/.286. That was 58 PA of essentially a pitcher who occasionally pops a homer. Sometimes, you have to Snit-proof the roster and giving Brian Snitker a player like Santana is asking for trouble.

DL'd: Tyler Flowers...The expectation after the trade and subsequent activation of Sanchez was that Flowers might miss significant time -  potentially the rest of the year - but he's expected back by this weekend. So, there's that. Flowers has significantly cooled off after his tremendous start, hitting .208/.311/.426 since July 4, but he still has the inside track on beginning 2018 as the starting catcher.

DL'd: Jason Motte...The way Brian Snitker was using his bullpen, it was Arodys Vizcaino, Jim Johnson, and Jose Ramirez from the 7th to 9th innings with the lead and before that, Snitker went to his B-Team of Jackson, Krol, and Motte. That sounds like the worst law firm ever. Despite a FIP climbing to 6, Motte kept getting crunch time games while other younger and more talented arms pitched for Gwinnett. Fortunately, that looks to have stopped as the Braves decided his oblique was strained after giving up his sixth homer of the year last week. Funny how that happens. Motte had walked a batter in eight straight contests and he's likely thrown his last pitch for the Braves.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Sal Giardina...It seems like Giardina has been around for eight years, but it's actually only been half that. He made both his Double-A and Triple-A debuts this season and hit .264/.348/.329 over 161 PA. He's an organizational guy who can play the infield corners in a pinch.

Promoted from Mississippi: Dan Reynolds...Signed out of the independent leagues last winter, Reynolds was a solid, though unspectacular pitcher for Mississippi before a late-season promotion to Gwinnett. A veteran of six minor league seasons in the Angels' system before 2016, Reynolds still walks a few too many hitters and he'd probably get a pass on that if he threw with his left arm instead of his right arm. A minor league free agent, the Braves may not have room for Reynolds in 2018.

Phillips | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated: Evan Phillips...Sadly, some struggles late in the season have pushed Phillips' full-season numbers back up to ugly after he worked so hard to make them respectable. Phillips started the year much like he ended it - by giving up a bunch of runs. He surrendered 14 in his first five games (5 ING) but rebounded with a 3.35 ERA and a strikeout an inning over his next 32 games and 43 innings. Mixed in there was a promotion to Gwinnett at the end of May. However, he gave up five runs over his final 3.1 innings, which also includes a trip to the DL. Overall, give him a 6.14 ERA on the year.

Recalled and Optioned: Jason Hursh...Cheer up, Jason. This was the seventh and probably the last time you will be optioned to the minors this season. Hursh was the 26th man during a recent doubleheader and will probably rejoin the Braves once he completes his mandatory 10 days in the minors following a demotion. Hursh has a 4.30 ERA in the minors this year with nearly a strikeout an inning. He's allowed six runs in 10.2 ING over nine games in the majors.

DFA and Outrighted: Enrique Burgos...There was a time this year where it looked like Burgos was on the fast track for a promotion, but things went real bad over his last eight outings. In 5.2 innings, he gave up 11 runs, walked seven, and struck out eight. The Braves may have brought him down to Atlanta for a September look before his August stumbles. Now, he's likely thrown his last pitch as a Brave.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Raymar Navarro...He never pitched for Mississippi and the Cuban-born right-hander finishes his second year much like his first - with underwhelming numbers. With Danville, Rome, and Florida, Navarro has a 4.56 ERA in 51.1 innings. We'll see if he stays around for 2018.

Florida
Promoted from Danville: Jaret Hellinger...A 20th rounder with some hype two years ago, Hellinger received a brief run in Rome before the D-Braves' season began, but did little with it. He became one of Danville's most consistent arms after that, though, and finished the year with a two-inning appearance in Florida. Hellinger was a decent "get" out of Ola High School in McDonough, GA in 2015, but it's time we see some results. I imagine he'll receive an assignment with Rome to open 2018.

Promoted from Danville: Gary Schwartz...I've only seen him referred to as "Garrison," but either way, Schwartz had a big August for Danville and was awarded a three-game tryout in Florida to end the year. He didn't do so hot there with a 1-for-9 showing with a steal, a walk, and five K's. I imagine he'll head down to Rome to open 2018 and the former Grand Canyon University standout will get a shot to get back on track.

Promoted from GCL: Hayden Deal...I wrote about him a good deal earlier today in my GCL recap. Deal was added to Florida either for roster purposes or an extra arm, but he was never used.

DL'd: Kevin Mathews...The former Texas first rounder only logged 24.1 innings after joining the organization in early July. He gave up 22 hits, struck out 22, and walked 22. Somewhere, Jayson Stark just got excited. After a great start in Rome and a decent spot start at the end of July in Gwinnett, things kind of went bad in Florida for Matthews. The lefty has long has had a high-projection arm, but has had very few positive results with it. It'll be interesting to see if he's back in 2018.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Walter Borkovich...A Walk-Off Walk favorite, The Bork's first season after being undrafted out of Michigan State went rather well. Over 27.1 ING spread across three minor league stops, Borkovich finished with a 2.30 ERA, over a strikeout an inning, and just three walks. That comes out to a 10 strikeout per walk ratio, which is amazing. Now, can he do it again in 2018? That'll be fun to watch.

Promoted from Danville: Riley Delgado...This year's Marcus Mooney (i.e. high work ethic, grit, short on projection) is Delgado, a middle infielder out of Middle Tennessee State. He was picked in the ninth round to save money and in 22 games in Danville, hit just .232/.299/.246. He's a smooth fielder, both at second and shortstop, but you're simply not going to get much out of his bat. Probably will stick around in the system for a few years as a bench player.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Bladimir Matos...This was the third time Matos was demoted to Danville. The number of times he pitched for the D-Braves? Zero. Roster manipulation FTW!

Nothing doing for the GCL and DSL rosters, whose seasons are over.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Introducing Tony Sanchez

Let's go to the annual Baseball Prospectus from 2015 for the story on Tony Sanchez:
"Good news: Sanchez might eke out a career as a back-up catcher. Bad news: That's about the best-case scenario."
Cool.

By Eugene Kim on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational Crop) [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
If you didn't hear - and judging by the mass hysteria on social media, you almost certainly did - the Braves traded Brandon Phillips yesterday evening for catcher Tony Sanchez. WOW.net contributor - and second biggest The Office fan at the blog - Stephen Tolbert went over the deal last night with a focus on Phillips and why the Braves got so little in return for a solid performer. Instead of repeating him, I want to look at Sanchez because I'm more into tackling the mundane and boring subjects in baseball. Speaking of which, did you see my Denny Neagle trade retrospective the other day? No? Oh...

Sanchez was drafted with the fourth overall selection of the 2009 draft out of Boston College but was born and raised in Miami. I was first introduced to Sanchez a few months later. After stays in the New York-Penn League and South Atlantic League, Sanchez finished up his first summer in pro ball by joining the Lynchburg Hillcats in the Carolina League. The 'Cats already had a future major league backstop in Eric Fryer along with a productive bat in Kris Watts, but Sanchez was the big name and with the 'Cats headed to the playoffs, the Pirates decided to give Sanchez a shot at managing a pitching staff in some important games. They would win the title a few weeks later.

Sanchez was immediately a big prospect, ranking #79 in baseball heading into his first full season by Baseball America. It was an injury-shortened, but solid campaign for Sanchez. Playing for the Pirates' new High-A team in Bradenton, he slashed .314/.416/.454 over 250 PA, though he would look pretty lost in a stint in the Arizona Fall League after the regular season ended. His prospect status began to take a hit from there. In 2011, now in the Eastern League, Sanchez slashed .241/.340/.318, which earned a return to the level to open 2012. He showed moderate improvement before a promotion to Triple-A. Three years after being drafted, Sanchez was already in Triple-A and while he was no longer showing up in Top 100's, there was still some hope he would be the long-term guy for the Pirates.

That, well, didn't happen. From 2013 until the end of 2015, Sanchez went back-and-forth between the Pirates and their top minor league team in Indianapolis. He had a few good runs mixed in, but was hardly noteworthy in the majors with a .259/.303/.378 slash over 155 PA. His longest look came in 2014 when a Russell Martin injury opened up some increased playing time. Sanchez wasn't especially bad, just forgetful, as he hit .267 with no plate recognition (3 BB/28 K in 80 PA).

Since leaving the Pirates, Sanchez struggled through a year of injuries and abysmal offensive production playing for both Buffalo and Sacramento. This year, he was sharing catcher duties with Carlos Perez in Salt Lake, the Angels' top minor league club. In a tremendous environment for hitters, Sanchez was hitting .272/.355/.374. For perspective, each of those marks is below the team average for this season.

Underwhelmed? As am I. As is everyone here at WOW.net. As is, I'm sure, John Coppolella. But as Stephen rightfully pointed out, the market was garbage this year for rental bats and the goes double for the market for Phillips, which was especially small with so many teams needing a 2B (and sometimes 3B). Sanchez provides the team some depth with Tyler Flowers on the mend and the Braves unsure if he'll play again this season. And to his credit, Sanchez's defense - his calling card since his BC days - remains very good. He's routinely placed very well in framing stats from Baseball Prospectus and, while he's not known for a big arm behind the plate, he does everything else you want from a catcher - much like Flowers.

Moving forward, this gets a bit murkier for Sanchez. With Kurt Suzuki a free agent, the Braves could bring back Sanchez for competition for next year's roster. The current backup to Suzuki, David Freitas, is basically a poor-man's version of Sanchez, interestingly enough - if there exists a poor man's version of a guy making the major league minimum. Freitas isn't quite as athletic behind the plate and has some of the same issues throwing out runners Sanchez has, but is just as good of a pitch framer and has displayed a similar offensive profile over the last couple of years.

For what it's worth, Sanchez could eclipse, if brought to the majors for little more than a week, one year of service time. If you were curious, Sanchez is also out of options.

To sum up, Sanchez is a capable defender and not much else. That might disappoint fans who wanted more if Phillips was traded. Certainly, I am disappointed, but realistically, my biggest hope was that the Braves would pick up some no-name arm that walks 10 BB/9 at rookie level but has big velocity. Suffice it to say, my expectations were really low in the event Phillips was dealt. Remember that the Braves gave the Reds Andrew McKirahan and a guy who they quickly released for Phillips while also getting the Reds to pay down over 90% of his salary this year. All in all, the Braves did well by Phillips to be open to a deal that would allow him an opportunity to play meaningful baseball. They did well for the team by opening up a spot in the lineup for Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz. And the Braves did well for future players by finding Phillips a new home rather than cut a productive player simply to open up time for younger ones. Sanchez might not be an interesting pickup, but it's better than nothing.

Friday, August 11, 2017

Braves Catching Turning Into a Strength

In the major leagues, few teams have had a better situation behind the plate than the Braves this season. With Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, the Braves have a pair of players who have been productive all season long at the plate and in Flowers' case, they have the game's best framer. But both are over 30 and may not around when the Braves next make the playoffs. Today, let's look at the minor league situation and see if the Braves will have replacements.

It wasn't that long ago that the Braves had one catching prospect - Christian Bethancourt. It was easy to look past his flaws because he was really Atlanta's only hope. Similar things happened over the years with Scott Thorman at first base and Kyle Davies at starter. Atlanta didn't have many other options so what options the Braves did have seemed better than they actually were.

While the Braves will still have to wait a few years for their guys to develop, the catcher position is starting to turn from an organizational weakness to one of strength. From trades to the draft to the international market, the Atlanta Braves have acquired a good deal of talented catchers that might usher in the next Javy Lopez or Brian McCann - catchers who were both offensively and, to some degree, defensively able.

Seven catchers made our Top 50 Midseason Prospect list. The seven prospects run the gamut from the strong defender to the strong hitter to the guys who are a bit of both. Moving forward, their development might prompt the Braves to avoid spending richly on a free agent and go with a cheaper, younger, and maybe an even better option. With all that in mind, let's take a look level-by-level.

Gwinnett
Kade Scivicque, #43 in the Midseason Top 50 - Acquired in last summer's Erick Aybar trade with the Tigers, Scivicque had a strong Arizona Fall League showing after the trade, but hasn't been able to continue that success this season. Slashing .261/.314/.345 mostly at Mississippi, Scivicque hasn't really regressed compared to last season, but it's still not close to his AFL numbers. Unfortunately, Scivicque has not graded well defensively this season according to Baseball Prospectus's Advanced Metrics for catchers (-4.6 FRAA). These metrics have their issues, but do help frame the discussion. Scivicque was expected to be a decent little hitter who could improve behind the plate. At this rate, that might be too much to expect. Scivicque made out Top 50 at midseason, but without a strong finish, it could be the final time he holds that distinction. On the plus side, at 24 years-old, he's the youngest catcher to play at Gwinnett with the exception of Bethancourt in at least a part-time role - period. Seriously, since their inaugural season in 2009, the Gwinnett Braves have been a home for the, as Outfield Fly Rule's Brent Blackwell recently put it, Fraternal Order of Replacement Backstops (FORB). These are guys who just travel from one organization to the next getting playing time as a "good handler of young pitchers." Scivicque might not be a great prospect, but he is - at the very least - a prospect.

Mississippi
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Alex Jackson, #11 - The bat is back for Jackson. He hit .272/.333/.502 with Florida while smashing 14 HR. To be fair, his walk and strikeout rates are concerning, but Jackson was drafted for his massive raw power and with already a new career-high in home runs set this year, the Braves are very happy with his development at the plate. Behind it, he's still a work in progress. When he was drafted, Jackson's arm was not the problem and still isn't. He's got a showcase cannon either from behind the plate or in the outfield. The problem was that defensively, his skills were behind the curve. Three years of playing outfield have done little to help with that. I think the Braves will wait until this offseason - at the earliest - before attempting to judge Jackson's defense. If they've seen progression throughout the year, he might continue to wear the tools of ignorance. If not, it might be time to shift him back to the outfield. Regardless, his bat plays no matter where he ultimately lines up.

Joseph Odom - The recent trade of Anthony Recker brought Odom to Gwinnett, but only for a couple of days before he was exchanged with Scivicque. Odom has generally not hit well since he was drafted out of Huntingdon College back in 2013, but he increased his OPS each year to a personal-best .758 last year between Carolina and Mississippi. He doesn't profile as a big prospect, but there is enough pop and plate discipline here that, when combined with solid reports of his defensive capabilities, it makes Odom a potential future member of FORB.

Jonathan Morales - In three years, Morales has gone from interesting prospect to we're-still-hoping to nearly-forgotten-to-the-point-a-blogger-has-to-do-a-last-second-edit-before-publishing-this-article-because-I-forgot-about-him. Got all that? Morales slashed .304/.377/.511 in the Gulf Coast League back in 2015, but his OPS fell a bit over two hundred points with Rome the following year. He wasn't really setting the world on fire in Florida over the first few months this year, but with other higher-rated prospects pushing him, he was moved up the chain. Morales does rank solidly in catching metrics, though he's playing nearly as much first base now. To get back in the Braves' good graces, we're going to need to see some production at the plate soon, though.

Florida
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Brett Cumberland, #26 - Don't look now, but Bcumbo Slice (his twitter handle) is starting to figure it out at Florida. Cumberland got off to a tough start in Rome, going 6-for-45 to begin the year with a .582 OPS. His next 179 PA looked like this - .308/.469/.623 with 9 HR. He was brought up a level last June and again, it was tough sledding early. In his first 59 AB, he had just 10 hits, including one homer. However, he's been on fire since, hitting .377/.482/.478 with seven doubles. It's not a big sample size, but Cumberland's got the skillset to be a big bat. Like Jackson, the question has remained whether he'll remain a catcher with that big bat or be forced to move to another position. Unfortunately, there is a reason to agree with Baseball Prospectus' Steve Givarz when he said of Cumberland, "His glove? Hey he’s a good hitter let’s focus on that!" It's not that he can't stay at catcher, but there's significant doubt whether or not his defense will ultimately take away from his overall value. You don't have to be a superb defender and a good hitter, but the team would like to know that your glove is good enough to not embarrass the team should you stick at the position. Furthermore, there is a reasonable concern that Cumberland's hit-by-pitch numbers are soft. Going back to college, he's always got hit by a healthy number of pitches (38 total this year). However, pitcher's control improves as you climb the minor league ladder. He has just one more unintentional walk this season than he does HBP so it's a big part of his game. What happens if pitchers avoid hitting him?

Tanner Murphy - I was a big fan of Murphy after he hit .242/.361/.389 with Danville in 2014 and earned a lot of praise along the way. However, his numbers have only regressed since. He seemed to turn the corner last season, hitting .297/.411/.337 after the All-Star Break, but he has struggled to duplicate the success since. While his defense remains solid, Murphy is struggling to find at-bats behind higher-rated prospects added to the system since Murphy's selection in 2013. When Bethancourt arrived in the majors, Murphy was the top catching prospect still in the minors. Now, he's not even in the Top 5.

Rome
Lucas Herbert, #36 - The good news is that Herbert's numbers have looked quite a good deal better with Rome than they did in 2016. The bad news is that they still don't look that great. On the year, Kolby Allard's former high school catcher is hitting .258/.317/.390 with 7 HR. A name comes up on his Baseball Prospectus page as a top similarity that might not make Braves' fans happy - Christian Bethancourt in 2012. While no one wants to compare the two, the idea is pretty fair - both had reputations as strong defenders with questionable offensive potential. Now, let's be generous here and remember that Herbert basically lost a season of development after he went down with an injury in his first professional game in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. Let's also recall that at 20 years-old with really one year of experience, one would expect Herbert's 2017 level of production considering his profile coming out of high school. Nevertheless, success has been hard to come by for Herbert to this point. His offensive game is still raw and he could be a sleeper candidate next year if it starts to come together, though

Carlos Martinez - Where did this come from? Martinez hit in the .220's the last two seasons for Danville but has found a way to hit .301 this season. Of course, when your BABIP jumps to .352 when it was never higher than .269, that helps. Martinez also has one of the strangest numbers in the system - an .010 ISO. Of his 31 hits, 30 are singles. That's astounding. It's also reason to believe that Martinez, even at his best, is not a prospect.

Drew Lugbauer, #44 - A recent callup from Danville, Lugbauer has yet to stop hitting. On the year, the former Michigan Wolverine is hitting .272/.374/.551 with nine doubles, a triple, and ten homeruns. All of the four-baggers came with Danville before the promotion to Rome. He's shared an equal amount of time between first base, third base, and catcher and hasn't looked that bad at the corners. His footwork behind the plate is not crisp, though, and he's failed to throw out any of the nine baserunners that have attempted to steal on him. Despite including him in this discussion, it's harder to see him staying behind the plate than either Jackson or Cumberland. He'll have to improve dramatically in that regard to continue to receive regular time as a catcher. The good news is that Lugbauer could present the Braves, if he develops well, with an interesting option that can catch if needed, but also play the corner infield positions. Such a player would have been nice in Atlanta this year with the production the Braves have received from both catchers and the hesitancy to use one or the other in a pinch hitting appearance.

Danville
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
William Contreras, #50 - I gave Contreras a #46 ranking in our Midseason Top 50 and Ryan Cothran ranked him two spots higher. I don't know about Ryan or Stephen Tolbert (who had him unranked), but Contreras is primed to be one of my biggest risers when we reconvene for a postseason update. The brother of the Cubs' Wilson, William OPS'd .783 and .721 over two years spent in the DSL and GCL before this year. Lauded for his defense, the bat was considered more of a question. This season, he's had the best year combining both offense and defense of any of the Braves' minor league catchers. Hitting .336/.426/.496 with 3 HR, Contreras has regularly flashed a bat capable of doing big things despite all but 19 of his 141 PA coming against pitchers older than he is. He also has shown a good command of the strikezone, walking four more times than he has struck out. His defense is very fluid behind the plate and only getting better as he refines his footwork and framing. Of the games I've personally seen this season, no catcher has prompted the umpire to receive more complaints from batters upset about strike calls. That tells me that he's capable at framing. But while all of his tools are solid, his biggest weapon is a cannon of an arm that he's not shy about showing at any time. He keeps his infielders on their toes as he's willing to try to pick off runners. He'll even gun it around the horn after a strikeout. I haven't seen a better defensive catcher this season in the Appalachian League and he's still only 19 years-old.

Hagan Owenby - Drafted more for his bat, Owenby played a good deal of first base and DH before Lugbauer's promotion just to get him into action. He's a leader on the field and does a good job working with his pitchers, but his defense isn't very good right now (he has five of Danville's 11 passed balls to this point). At the plate, he has a nice line-drive stroke that might develop more power as he progresses. His performances at first base were pretty ugly and I feel confident that he'll last at catcher, but I don't have the same amount of confidence that the bat will ever be enough to make up for defensive problems behind the plate.

Alan Crowley - Some people are drafted just to be backup catchers in the minors. Crowley is one of those guys. He did ride a high BABIP to a .327 average over 56 PA with Rome last year, but less balls are dropping this year and his .163 average is a result.

GCL
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Abraham Gutierrez, #33 - While Kevin Maitan received most of the coverage during last year's international signing spree by the Braves, Gutierrez is a pretty impressive prospect as well. He jumped to the states to begin this season with the GCL squad and the 17-year-old has hit a respectable .261/.327/.330. He's also thrown out 39% of baserunners, which is no small feat considering the ability for teenage pitchers to hold runners. Gutierrez's scouting report includes amazing athletism behind the plate, a strong arm, and a quick-and-powerful stroke at the plate. The emergence of Contreras this year as the best full-package catching prospect shouldn't negate Gutierrez, who still might have the best potential of any Braves minor league catching prospect.

Ricardo Rodriguez - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Rodriguez has been stuck with the Gulf Coast League Braves due to a weak offensive profile and not enough at-bats for all of the Braves catching prospects. Rodriguez is one of the guys who might get more extended look if the Braves opened some playing time by adding a second rookie team in the GCL or adding a short-season A-ball team for their college-age draftees like Owenby or Crowley. Rodriguez, by the way, has a strong glove and flashed a decent enough bat in the Dominican Summer League two years ago. It's been missing-in-action since coming stateside, though.

The Braves have more catchers, but these are some of the bigger names. What would your Top 5 Braves catching prospects look like? And do you think Jackson, Cumberland, and/or Lugbauer will stay at catcher long-term? Let me know in the comments.

Saturday, August 5, 2017

Braves Bring Up Max Fried, But Why?

The Braves have brought up another big prospect.

No, not Ronald Acuna. Nope, not Mike Soroka or Luiz Gohara. Not even A.J. Minter.

Instead, the Braves have recalled Max Fried from Double-A Mississippi while sending Jason Hursh back to Gwinnett for the 18th time this season (or so). To say this move was shocking is an understatement. Fried has had a rough season in Mississippi with a 5.92 ERA and a 2-11 record, which is pretty ugly even if you hate win-loss records. A preseason #11th best prospect according to the Walk-Off Walk rankings, he dropped to 21st in the recent Midseason update.

Of course, there's always more to this story than just the simple numbers. Fried hasn't pitched much differently than he did last year when he reaffirmed his status as a prime prospect coming off Tommy John surgery. Don't believe me? Well, here's some numbers.

Year Level K% BB% LD% GB% FB% HR/FB FIP xFIP
2016 A-Rome 26% 11% 20% 51% 29% 14% 3.97 3.39
2017 AA-Miss. 22% 11% 16% 52% 33% 10% 4.06 3.76

(Edit...a previous version of this article had inaccuate information for the 2016 FIP and xFIP)

Fried has also struggled with blisters, which cost him a few weeks on the DL in early July as he tried to recover from them. Once he returned, he left his first start with more blister issues and spent another week on the DL. After returning again, his next two starts were short-lived as well - though that may have been by design.

Could the Braves be considering jumping into one of the latest bullpen trends in baseball - converting minor league starters into multiple-inning, high-leverage relievers? The average outs-per-game for relief appearances is on the rise. After remaining steady at 3.0 outs per relief appearance for the last few years, the NL average has jumped to 3.2 this season. This is particularly noteworthy in the NL considering the presence of the pitcher's spot in the lineup. No team has embraced this more than the Reds. In 2015, their relievers averaged 3.2 outs per game. The next year, it was 3.6 and this season, they are averaging 3.8.

Back in 2015, no team averaged more than 3.2 outs-per-relief appearances in the NL. Four NL teams are at 3.3 or better this season. This may not seem like a big number, but it represents a growing trend that managers aren't as beholden to the idea that one guy pitches the seventh, one guy pitches the eighth, and one guy pitches the ninth.

The Braves are behind the curve on this, though to be fair, their weak bullpen has often forced replacing the current pitcher even if they would rather them throw more. But even that might be changing. Last week, the Braves asked Jose Ramirez, in a tight game, to throw two innings in relief. It was the first time since he became a primary setup reliever for the Braves in mid-May that he had recorded more than three outs in a game. A few days ago, Rex Brothers entered to record the final out of the seventh and then pitched the eighth inning. The game was tied when he entered and he eventually got the win after a Tyler Flowers pinch-hit two-run homer. Brothers has regularly been used in close games in the late innings.

Maybe the arrival of Fried is to give the Braves an option that Luke Jackson, the current long guy, doesn't really give the Braves - a high-leverage reliever who can throw a few innings twice a week.

We saw how the Indians used Andrew Miller last fall. He's currently fifth in fWAR among relievers despite having recorded just two saves. Chris Devenski has stabilized an Astros bullpen and thrown 1.4 fWAR worth of quality middle relief. Our old friend Mike Minor has done the same in Kansas City. The Reds use Raisel Iglesias, their closer, often to get more than three outs - which is almost unheard of in today's game.

This is just a guess, but Fried could be Atlanta's experiment in taking a former starter and converting him into a guy trusted to throw quality innings (that's plural) late in a close game.

Is Fried up for such a task? Well, his stuff says he is. Fried utilizes both a four-seam and two-seam fastball that has been known to reach 97 mph. That velocity should only become more sustainable in shorter bursts. His curveball is a thing of beauty and he has a couple of versions of it (the slow looper and the hard late breaker). The looper is a show-me pitch while the hard breaker produces whiffs. His changeup is hit-or-miss but was considered average enough to keep him projected as a starter. He'd probably use it less or abandon it altogether if converted to relief.

Fried is death to lefties, by the way. While his control has wavered this season, lefties are hitting just .208 in 90 PA with 7 doubles against Fried. Last season, lefties actually hit better against Fried than righties - but is a .717 OPS over a .690 OPS something to talk about?

Whether or not Fried is used in such a way remains to be seen, but I have to believe the Braves didn't surprisingly call him up just to get his feet wet. They want him to play an important part on their team over the next two months. That might be achieved by using Fried as a typical setup/specialist reliever. That would be a sensible choice, but my hope is that they look outside-the-box a bit more than that. Fortunately, John Coppolella is well-known for such outside-the-box thinking.