Organizational Overview: Catcher

WhatProsWear

Yesterday, we began a series looking at the best prospects by position starting with catcher, but I'd be remiss if we didn't also look at where the Braves stand at catcher right now. After all, just because a position is a strength in the minors doesn't need help right now. Conversely, a position like first base looks pretty weak in the minors, but the Braves aren't that interested in addressing that because of who they have in the majors.

This series of articles will look at both the recent past - especially 2017 - and the foreseeable future. It will take into account the current major league roster, the current depth in the minors, and the future of the position. Think of this series as a way to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a roster before attempting to fix problems moving forward. I will use some of the information I already released about the current roster makeup as a reminder.

Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Current Projection: $7.5M

On a roster in flux, there is some degree of stability behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will almost certainly be brought back for 2018 and once again will be paired with Kurt Suzuki. We will get to the details on how effective this duo was in 2017, but it's very important to remember that the price per value here is exceptionally high. The Braves are essentially paying the price for a medium-grade starter for two catchers who are capable of being starters in the majors. However, both are probably better for the time share they played under last season. Catchers are naturally prone to breaking down as the season progresses, but the Braves avoided that by having their duo share the load.

The other 40-man options right now are unlikely to be in the mix by opening day. Freitas is Triple-A filler while Sanchez, more known for his defense, didn't even catch an inning after being acquired at the waiver-trade deadline.

Comparison - The Majors

The duo of Flowers and Suzuki lack the name recognition and neither will be All-Stars in 2018, but for one year, they gave the Braves the best production from behind the plate in the league. Only four teams received at least 4 WAR from their catchers in 2017 and only the Braves pushed over the 5 WAR cliff - finishing with 5.1 fWAR to be exact. They were tied for fourth in homers, third in ISO, first in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Defensively, they were slightly below-average - largely because Flowers gives up defensive value for framing - something he's the best at in baseball.

Because the Braves can keep both Flowers and Suzuki moving forward, the position looks to have zero upheaval heading into 2018. It might be a pipe dream to expect the Braves to get another 5-win season from their catchers - it was shocking that it happened once - but both Flowers and Suzuki credit Kevin Seitzer for their improvements at the plate and the Braves certainly could bring back Seitzer for another season. That would keep a good team together for another year, though the Braves are rumored to look at some considerable alterations to their coaching staff despite bringing back Brian Snitker.

Regardless, the Braves should rank among the top 10 or so teams heading into 2018 behind the plate even if individually, both of their catchers are ranked much lower. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Marlins, and possibly the Mariners should all rank ahead of them on the strength of their number one catcher. The Orioles and Tigers, a combined 7.2 fWAR between them, will be tasked with rebuilding their catching situation. Welington Castillo could return to the Orioles, but after a big year, he'll likely seek out a long-term deal rather than come back on a player's option while the Tigers already dealt Alex Avila last season.

Obviously, there are a lot of dominoes that will fall this offseason, but the fact the Braves have two respectable catchers who put up the kind of numbers that they did in 2017 makes this position a strength heading into 2018 compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - Immediate Depth

I don't want you to get the wrong idea - this is simply what kind of depth is already projected to be in the minors who could be on the major league roster when the season opens next year. The Braves have a lot of catching prospects - and I'll get back to them - but their best prospects are not likely going to be in the mix next April. However, the Braves do have Kade Scivicque and that isn't the worst thing in the world. Scivicque missed our Top 5, but is probably a Top 50 prospect in this loaded system so don't sleep on him. He doesn't project as much more than a backup in the majors, but is smart and capable behind the plate. He has some gap power and while aggressive at the plate, will make enough solid contact to possibly post a good average if the BABIP allow it.

The Braves could bring back Freitas or Sanchez for more depth and they also have Sal Giardina and Joseph Odom, who both appeared in Gwinnett last year. Neither, however, project as much more than organizational filler and the Braves don't need Freitas or the rarely utilized Sanchez. Beyond them, you have last year's Double-A duo of Jonathan Morales and Alex Jackson. Morales is a lot like Giardina and Odom, but Jackson is a legit prospect if he can stay behind the plate. Actually, with his bat, he's a legit prospect anywhere, but he brings more value as a catcher. Reports were mixed about Jackson, but he did appear to look much more comfortable as the season progressed after moving from the outfield. If he continues to respond to coaching, Jackson could be knocking on the door sometime next summer. Despite not being in the mix when the season opens, Jackson is still slated to open 2018 in Gwinnett if only because that's where the at-bats because there's so much depth behind him. Even if an injury opened a spot in the bigs, I think Scivicque is ahead of Jackson for the time being, but at some point in 2018, that's going to change.

I'd classify the immediate depth as average, but trending up.

Comparison - The Future

The Braves might not have any of their catchers make one of the big Top 100 Prospects list this winter, but the depth here is off-the-charts. I already mentioned Jackson, and he received the most points for our top catching prospect in our recent list. The great thing about the catching depth is that it's spread out pretty well. Here's a brief projection with the Top 5 catching prospects and others that likely will be in the mix.

Gwinnett: Alex Jackson (#1), Kade Scivicque (Honorable mention), Joseph Odom.
Mississippi: Brett Cumberland (#3), Jonathan Morales, Sal Giardina
Florida: Lucas Herbert (#5), Carlos Martinez, Tanner Murphy
Rome: William Contreras (#2), Hagen Owenby
Danville: Abrahan Gutierrez (#4), Alan Crowley, Zack Soria

Not too shabby. The best combinations of offense/defense of the group are likely 2-3 years away in Contreras and Gutierrez, but there's a pair of good offensive talents in Herbert and Cumberland with a lottery ticket in Herbert mixed in whose bat could develop well enough to increase his prospect standing. This list does not include Drew Lugbauer, who was classified as a first basemen due to where he played the most. Still, Lugbauer gives the Braves another possibility even if it's as a part-time catcher/corner infielder coming off the bench.

No matter how you slice it, the future is a major strength for the Braves and likely one of the best catching prospect situations in baseball - if not the best.

The Big Picture

When it comes to the catcher position, there are few teams in a better position than the Braves. Sure, the chances of the Braves having the best production in baseball from their catchers in 2018 is not high, but there's also a strong chance that both Flowers and Suzuki perform well enough to lead the Braves to a solid season from behind the plate. The coming attractions, though, is where the Braves turn the catcher position into something special. It's hard not to think the Braves should be good behind the plate for the next decade.

WOW's Top 5 Catching Prospects

The 2017 season for the Atlanta Braves has come to a close and now we begin to look forward into 2018 and beyond. This week, we begin a series that looks at each position and the prospects that the organization currently have - starting with a position of great depth in catcher. It wasn’t long ago that the Braves had Cristian Bethancourt and that was about it. Nowadays, that has changed as all five catchers who made this list likely will be in our preseason Top 50 (provided they aren’t traded). In fact, a sixth catcher will likely get included in our Top 50 who wasn’t voted into this Top 5. That’s how deep this position is now.

Later this week, we’ll publish the first base list, which is...well, not quite as deep. Or deep at all.

Here’s how we arrived at our list. - each of the three writers at Walk-Off Walk voted on their Top 5 catchers (plus one extra) and we took the composite rank. Ties are broken by the individual’s highest ranking among the voters. Positions are determined by which position a person played the most at (with a few exceptions).

Also receiving votes: Kade Scivicque. 

Top 5 Atlanta Braves Catching Prospects

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

1. Alex Jackson

Tommy: With Jackson, the question is less his bat, but it's still worth starting there because he had the kind of year many expected would be the norm for him after being the sixth overall selection of the 2014 draft by Seattle. He slashed .267/.328/.480 on the year with 19 homeruns while taking his first swings at both High-A and Double-A ball. Now, we can't NOT mention the 26% strikeout rate with a walk rate about 20% less, but it's still a solid showing for his Age-21 season. This was also Year 1 of the catching experiment. A backstop in high school, Jackson was converted to the outfield after the Mariners selected him and remained there for the first three years of his career. He wasn't an asset behind the plate, but he looked more and more comfortable as the season progressed and the Braves gave him more and more time as a catcher. Early returns on his framing were encouraging in that he looks average there. I say that's encouraging because if your baseline is average, that means you could improve to make framing a solid skill. He's got the arm for the position, but the footwork and pop-time will need a good deal of work. Keep in mind - this season was about finding out if Jackson could catch at a reasonable level. I think he can do that enough to stay there. He may never be a defensive marvel, but he could be better than Evan Gattis and with his offensive potential, that's plenty of value. Of course, a switch back to the outfield remains a possibility.

Ryan: I saw some video early in the season of Alex Jackson behind the plate and it was being nice to say he needed work. However, I watched quite of bit of him catching throughout the season and he improved considerably. By season’s end, one could squint and see a catcher in the making. Still, it was barely over a 50 game sample and that’s just not enough to prove/disprove anything. I think he ends up being a catcher at the big league level but it could take 2 more full years for that to happen.

Stephen: So, I’m usually the low man on Jackson’s ability to stay at catcher. I personally asked two scouts while at AA game what his future position would be and both said outfield without hesitation. This lines up with just about everything I’ve read from scouts and evaluators. He’s still young enough where nothing is written in stone but if his bat starts advancing at a higher rate than his glove, the organization is going to have to decide whether a Bryce Harper-like path is optimal for Alex. If putting him in the OF gets him in the lineup quicker, they might make the move. The biggest thing he has to work at the plate is the K rate. Get that under 20% and he’s a major league hitter right now. I’ve got high hopes for Jackson as a hitter and as a LF, I think he’s a major league regular.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

2. William Contreras

Tommy: The only reason - and I mean the only reason - that Contreras wasn’t my #1 was because he’s still in rookie ball and I think Jackson’s bat is so good that he’s on a path to the majors regardless of position. That said, I may change my mind by the time we reconvene for a preseason Top 50. Contreras is a joy to watch from a defensive standpoint. Such a joy that you almost forget that he hit .290/.379/.432 this season as a 19-year-old in the college-age Appalachian League. The defense, though, is worth the price of admission (well, at least in the minors). He’s smooth behind the plate and athletic. The framing is difficult to judge at this point, but he seems to have a feel for it. Footwork needs improvement, but the arm is a true 70-grade weapon - at least. Frankly, the more I write about him, the more I want to change my vote. If you followed me on Twitter during the Danville Braves' games I saw this year, you know that my man crush for Contreras grew every time I saw him. In an organization full of exciting prospects, only a select few are more intriguing to me than Contreras.

Ryan: Contreras is the guy that we as Braves fans should be most excited about in terms of a real catcher. He’s got the pedigree (obviously) and every scout out there drools about his athletic ability behind the plate. However, passed balls and blocking balls have been an early problem and that brings nightmares of Christian Bethancourt back into my mind. Hopefully, Contreras will disprove my insecurities this upcoming season and take that step forward that Bethancourt could never seemingly get past. If so, he’s the number #1 catching prospect for the Braves and could be knocking on the door of number #1 in baseball by the end of 2018.

Stephen: The other reason I think Atlanta will be more inclined to move Jackson to the OF is the emergence of Contreras. The reason I ranked him number one on my personal list is one, there’s zero doubt he stays at catcher, and two, his bat is much more than just an afterthought. Everything he does behind the plate is smooth and will only get smoother to go along with a howitzer hanging off his right shoulder. The bat is quick and produces hard contact consistently, putting up wRC+ of 125, 120, and 121 in his first 3 seasons. He’s going to have to hit the ball in the air more to produce more power but the talent is real and tools are there.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

3. Brett Cumberland

Tommy: Cumberland's season was a study in streaks. As May 17th began, Cumberland was slashing .183/.426/.338 due to 30 BB+HBP in 101 PA. From that date until his promotion to High-A a month later, Cumberland hit .317/.437/.663. A similar story happened after the promotion as he hit .188/.297/.281 in his first 20 games with Florida, but rebounded to hit .314/.430/.407 the rest of the way. All told, Cumberland slashed his way to .266/.409/.445 with Rome and Florida, hitting 27 doubles, 11 home runs, and being hit-by-a-pitch FORTY-ONE times! That's, well, unusual. As pitchers' control improves while he progresses through the system, the HBP numbers seem likely to fall. Frankly, for Cumberland's safety, that might be for the best. Guys in the majors throw hard, Brett. You don't want to get hit that frequently by the ball. Similar to Jackson, there are a lot of issues behind the plate for Cumberland and I'm less positive about his chances of putting it together well enough to play long-term behind the plate than I am Jackson. He's smart, works hard, and will give it everything he has, but a move to first base might be inevitable for Cumberland - though I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Ryan: Short and sweet, in my opinion, Cumberland’s going to have to hit a TON in the Minors to get a shot in the Majors as a catcher (very similar to Gattis). I just don’t see it happening, but like Tommy said, I would love it if it did. He works hard and that is a skillset in itself.

Stephen: I have very little faith Cumberland stays at catcher but the power is real and eventually I think he can be used as a nice piece in a deal with AL club looking for 1B/DH. Like Tommy said, the numbers are artificially inflated by HBP numbers that can’t be counted on as consistent production so he’s going to need to continue to develop at the plate the make up for having very little defensive value.

4. Abrahan Gutierrez

Tommy: Gutierrez may have been a guy that could have benefitted from a year in the Dominican Summer League. Just 17 years-old, he was thrown to the wolves in the Gulf Coast League and faced just one pitcher all season he was older than. Nevertheless, he held his own with a .264/.319/.357 slash over 141 PA with a homer in his final at-bat of the year. Defensively, he might not be Contreras' equal, but might be a tad more athletic behind the plate and did cut down 38% of potential base stealers. Potential-wise, though I love me some Contreras, Gutierrez still has the highest ceiling of any of these catchers on the list from an overall talent perspective.

Ryan: Can’t say much other than I think the bat improves, especially in the power department. At 17, he’s a big dude (6’2, 214 lbs) and already has a healthy K and BB rate so if the power develops, he’ll be another catching stud.

Stephen: Gutierrez is young and tooled up. Wasn’t a great debut season for him but it wasn’t a disaster either. He’ll get plenty of time to develop his skills and the best thing he has going for him is he’s young and tooled up.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

5. Lucas Herbert

Tommy: I was in the Outfield Fly Rule facebook group during the 2016 draft and after Cumberland was selected, I believe it was Brent Blackwell who stated if you combined Herbert's defense with Cumberland's bat, you'd have one of the best catching prospects in baseball. A torn meniscus killed Herbert's 2015 season almost before it began, but he was still given an aggressive promotion to Rome with only five plate appearances in rookie ball to open 2016. It didn't go so hot and early returns this season were pretty abysmal as well (.195/.290/.352 over the first nearly 150 PA). He improved after that, hitting .267/.318/.377 after June 4. It's not going to stand out much on this list, but progression was important for the kid with the questionable bat. Defensively, he has a great arm and is smooth behind the plate. Like all young catchers, the footwork and framing need improvement, but he's a leader on-and-off the field with a strong work ethic and a desire to improve. I'm not sure if the whole package will ever come together for him, but he could be a sleeper heading into 2018.

Ryan: While Herbert repeating Low-A in 2017 was a setback in itself, his overall slash-line improved as AVG, OBP, and SLG all went up, while his K% went down. Also, it’s worth noting that catchers tend to take longer to develop offensively, so keep an eye on Herbert. If his OPS gets to the .750ish range in 2018, he could move quickly as his defense is top notch.

Stephen: I’m watching Jeff Mathis play in post-season baseball after finishing his 13th season as a major league catcher. I bring this up because Jeff Mathis has a career wRC+ of 50. FIFTY. Point is, if you can get the defensive part of the position, you can have a legitimate career. This is the reason Lucas might have the highest floor among Braves’ catching prospects despite having probably the lowest ceiling. Dude can flat out play defense.

Did you disagree with our ranking? Let us know in the comments.

A.J. Minter's Climb is Complete

We can thank J.B. Moss for this freak out.

Moss, a former Braves farmhand who was released earlier this season just a year after being selected in the seventh round, took to twitter last night to say this:

My best friend is headed to THE SHOW!!!!! (I'll let you guess who it is till it comes out) LETSSSSS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

— JB Moss (@J_Moss11) August 23, 2017

It did not take long for Braves fans to make a connection. Before he was drafted by the Braves, Moss was a big part - when healthy of the Texas A&M baseball program. In 2015, Moss played in 52 games for the #13th ranked Aggies. Also on that team, before he went down with injury, was A.J. Minter. He was dominant over four starts in what was supposed to be a big move to the rotation after 40 K's in 37.1 relief innings the previous two years.

U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Shawna L. Keyes

That injury I spoke of? Of course, it's the Braves so you know what follows an injury to a pitcher - Tommy John surgery. It quickly eliminated of any hope of Minter being a first round selection, but the Braves were still very interested in the lefty. Brian Bridges, the Braves scouting director, was interested in Minter with the #28 pick before the injury. Ultimately, they grabbed Mike Soroka there. When their competitive balance draft choice, the #75th overall selection came around - a pick they gained by trading outfield prospect Victor Reyes to the Diamondbacks at the start of the season that year - the Braves could wait no longer. In addition to Soroka, they had selected prep stars Kolby Allard, Austin Riley, and Lucas Herbert. Now, they were getting the cherry on the top - Alex Jordan Minter.

The Braves knew Minter's 2015 was done. But while they figured their top selections would need plenty of time to mature and develop, Minter was seen as a guy who could shoot up the system once healthy. There was some internal debate whether he projected better as a starter or reliever. Much of that depended on a changeup that was fringy at best. Perhaps it wasn't a bad pitch, but when your heater and slider are that good (and they are), any average pitch will look that much worse. Less than two weeks after his selection, Minter signed for $814,300, or the assigned slot for the #75th pick.

There was a great deal of anticipation related to Minter's debut. The 2015 draft class was shaping up as the Braves' top class in years and that was before Minter had thrown a pitch. Atlanta refused to push the kid, though, and even though he made his debut on May 5 of last year with Rome and stayed healthy throughout the year, Minter would only pitch 31 times between that first game and the end of the season. He never had less than two days between games and threw over 20 pitches just seven times. Nevertheless, Minter flashed the potential that made Bridges want to spend a high-value first rounder on him before his injury. With Rome, he toyed with the South Atlantic hitters, allowing just two hits, a walk, and striking out six over 6.2 innings. After just a handful of games, he received his first promotion. It wouldn't be his last of the year.

With Carolina, Minter continued to show that he was too advanced for A-ball. Over eight games and 9.1 innings, he gave up just three hits and walked four. In the process, he struck out ten. With 13 games in the tank and 16 innings overall, Minter had not allowed an extra-base hit, walked just five batters, and struck out 16. He retired his Mudcats jersey and took his talents to Pearl, Mississippi. Finally, Minter was given at least a challenge. He gave up a double and a run in his second outing. On August 24, he had his worst outing of the year, surrendering four runs on two singles and two walks while failing to finish at least one inning of work for the first time all year. Those two outings were the only times all season he was scored upon. In 18 games with Mississippi, he gave up those five runs and walked six, but struck out 31. He went on a strikeout binge between July 9 and July 18. He faced 15 batters. Only one of them got a hit (that double I mentioned earlier). All 12 outs were recorded via the strikeout.

It was the kind of dominance that makes everyone sit up and notice you. As season previews were penned about the Braves 2017 bullpen, Minter was often mentioned as an x-factor. If he pitched well in camp and earned a promotion, he could have a big impact on this year's bullpen. However, that hope quickly turned to fear as Minter struggled with inflammation in his left arm. He was shut down after one pitching session and reported numbness in his fingers and hand. Braves fans, who have seen many of their favorite pitchers fall under the knife multiple times, feared the worse. However, the diagnosis of radial tunnel syndrome wasn't serious and while Minter wouldn't be in the mix for an opening day assignment with the team, once the inflammation went away, he could be back on the road to a possible debut.

He amped up his rehab and was ready for his first outing shortly after the Florida Fire Frogs inaugural season began. On April 11, Minter made his season debut with two strikeouts in a perfect inning. However, two days later, he hit the DL again with a groin strain. Some start, huh? Two months later, he returned for the Fire Frogs and tossed a perfect inning while striking out the side. Four days later, he made an appearance with Rome before returning to Florida for three more games. All told, he threw six innings in A-ball and allowed just one run on a solo shot by the Yankees fine second baseman prospect, Nick Solak. It was the first homerun Minter had given up in his career. He also struck out 10.

The next step was a three game-run with Mississippi. Over a week with the M-Braves, he added three more innings, the first two walks of the year, and three strikeouts. Finally, on July 5, he made his Triple-A debut. After an okay start, Minter ran into a four-game stretch where he gave up at least a run in each game - and six total earned runs. However, after a rough outing on July 23 (four runs, one earned, only two outs recorded), Minter did something for the first time. He pitched in a back-to-back. The next night, he retired all four batters he faced with a strikeout. In fact, since July 23, Minter has worked nine games with nine innings and nine strikeouts. The six walks in that time frame...is a bit much and uncharacteristic for Minter.

His last outing came on Monday. He threw a scoreless inning and worked around a single and a walk by striking out three batters. It was the first time he had struck-out-the-side in Triple-A.

What's the scouting report on Minter? Since college, Minter has worked with the Braves to try to clean up his delivery. It's a lot smoother now and he gets through the motion with much less wasted effort. He delivers out of a high 3/4's release point and when I have seen him struggle with his mechanics, his release point has been a bit of a tell. It drops a bit too much, which leads to not just less explosive pitches, but weaker control. While his delivery is a lot cleaner than it was in college, he's still a high-effort pitcher on the mound. This limits his ability to work beyond one frame at a time.

His heater has the great velocity you look for with consistent mid-to-upper 90's heat. He'll work around the plate and is not afraid to burn a fastball by a hitter up in the zone before nailing the outside corner with a low heater. It's not just his control with the fastball that impresses, but the movement. It has a bit of natural sink and run to it which makes it difficult to barrel up. It appears he has a cut fastball, but that might be changing speeds with his fastball because the movement on the two pitches isn't that dissimilar. What will pay the bills, though, is the slider. It has the nasty sweeping action you are looking for in a slider with good depth to it. It's a swing-and-miss pitch that lefties throw their bats at while righties swing over the top of it as it bears down on their ankles.

Minter is a quick worker on the mound and seemingly unfazed by whatever is happening at the moment. He goes after hitters without fear and the fastball/slider combo has high-leverage inning quality.

The biggest question with Minter is his health. This is unfair to some degree because he's young, had wonky mechanics at A&M, and got hurt. The Braves were extra careful with him as a result and the groin injury was just one of those things that happens. He could be healthy and excellent moving forward. But until he can show that, the concerns about his health will remain.

At worst, it's hard to see Minter fail to find a role in a major league bullpen - even if it's as only a left hand specialist. Lefties have managed just eleven hits against Minter in the minors and with his profile, it's difficult to see major league lefties having much more success than that. Will he reach his full potential that has often included the tag, "closer-in-waiting?" It's quite possible. With maturity, consistent mechanics, and more experience learning the art of pitching, Minter would have all the tools to be a high-leverage arm who could anchor a pen. As long as he's able to stay on the mound, it's all there for him. It's going to be fun to watch.

As an aside, the Braves sent Max Fried down. He'll likely join Gwinnett, though he could return to Mississippi. Fried struggled badly with his control in his new role as a reliever for the Braves. They got a look at him and he'll probably return sometime in September. simply wasn't able to find his curveball consistently, which led to some bad outings. A few starts in the minors might help him adjust once more.

Braves Catching Turning Into a Strength

In the major leagues, few teams have had a better situation behind the plate than the Braves this season. With Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, the Braves have a pair of players who have been productive all season long at the plate and in Flowers' case, they have the game's best framer. But both are over 30 and may not around when the Braves next make the playoffs. Today, let's look at the minor league situation and see if the Braves will have replacements.

It wasn't that long ago that the Braves had one catching prospect - Christian Bethancourt. It was easy to look past his flaws because he was really Atlanta's only hope. Similar things happened over the years with Scott Thorman at first base and Kyle Davies at starter. Atlanta didn't have many other options so what options the Braves did have seemed better than they actually were.

While the Braves will still have to wait a few years for their guys to develop, the catcher position is starting to turn from an organizational weakness to one of strength. From trades to the draft to the international market, the Atlanta Braves have acquired a good deal of talented catchers that might usher in the next Javy Lopez or Brian McCann - catchers who were both offensively and, to some degree, defensively able.

Seven catchers made our Top 50 Midseason Prospect list. The seven prospects run the gamut from the strong defender to the strong hitter to the guys who are a bit of both. Moving forward, their development might prompt the Braves to avoid spending richly on a free agent and go with a cheaper, younger, and maybe an even better option. With all that in mind, let's take a look level-by-level.

Gwinnett
Kade Scivicque, #43 in the Midseason Top 50 - Acquired in last summer's Erick Aybar trade with the Tigers, Scivicque had a strong Arizona Fall League showing after the trade, but hasn't been able to continue that success this season. Slashing .261/.314/.345 mostly at Mississippi, Scivicque hasn't really regressed compared to last season, but it's still not close to his AFL numbers. Unfortunately, Scivicque has not graded well defensively this season according to Baseball Prospectus's Advanced Metrics for catchers (-4.6 FRAA). These metrics have their issues, but do help frame the discussion. Scivicque was expected to be a decent little hitter who could improve behind the plate. At this rate, that might be too much to expect. Scivicque made out Top 50 at midseason, but without a strong finish, it could be the final time he holds that distinction. On the plus side, at 24 years-old, he's the youngest catcher to play at Gwinnett with the exception of Bethancourt in at least a part-time role - period. Seriously, since their inaugural season in 2009, the Gwinnett Braves have been a home for the, as Outfield Fly Rule's Brent Blackwell recently put it, Fraternal Order of Replacement Backstops (FORB). These are guys who just travel from one organization to the next getting playing time as a "good handler of young pitchers." Scivicque might not be a great prospect, but he is - at the very least - a prospect.

Mississippi

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Alex Jackson, #11 - The bat is back for Jackson. He hit .272/.333/.502 with Florida while smashing 14 HR. To be fair, his walk and strikeout rates are concerning, but Jackson was drafted for his massive raw power and with already a new career-high in home runs set this year, the Braves are very happy with his development at the plate. Behind it, he's still a work in progress. When he was drafted, Jackson's arm was not the problem and still isn't. He's got a showcase cannon either from behind the plate or in the outfield. The problem was that defensively, his skills were behind the curve. Three years of playing outfield have done little to help with that. I think the Braves will wait until this offseason - at the earliest - before attempting to judge Jackson's defense. If they've seen progression throughout the year, he might continue to wear the tools of ignorance. If not, it might be time to shift him back to the outfield. Regardless, his bat plays no matter where he ultimately lines up.

Joseph Odom - The recent trade of Anthony Recker brought Odom to Gwinnett, but only for a couple of days before he was exchanged with Scivicque. Odom has generally not hit well since he was drafted out of Huntingdon College back in 2013, but he increased his OPS each year to a personal-best .758 last year between Carolina and Mississippi. He doesn't profile as a big prospect, but there is enough pop and plate discipline here that, when combined with solid reports of his defensive capabilities, it makes Odom a potential future member of FORB.

Jonathan Morales - In three years, Morales has gone from interesting prospect to we're-still-hoping to nearly-forgotten-to-the-point-a-blogger-has-to-do-a-last-second-edit-before-publishing-this-article-because-I-forgot-about-him. Got all that? Morales slashed .304/.377/.511 in the Gulf Coast League back in 2015, but his OPS fell a bit over two hundred points with Rome the following year. He wasn't really setting the world on fire in Florida over the first few months this year, but with other higher-rated prospects pushing him, he was moved up the chain. Morales does rank solidly in catching metrics, though he's playing nearly as much first base now. To get back in the Braves' good graces, we're going to need to see some production at the plate soon, though.

Florida

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Brett Cumberland, #26 - Don't look now, but Bcumbo Slice (his twitter handle) is starting to figure it out at Florida. Cumberland got off to a tough start in Rome, going 6-for-45 to begin the year with a .582 OPS. His next 179 PA looked like this - .308/.469/.623 with 9 HR. He was brought up a level last June and again, it was tough sledding early. In his first 59 AB, he had just 10 hits, including one homer. However, he's been on fire since, hitting .377/.482/.478 with seven doubles. It's not a big sample size, but Cumberland's got the skillset to be a big bat. Like Jackson, the question has remained whether he'll remain a catcher with that big bat or be forced to move to another position. Unfortunately, there is a reason to agree with Baseball Prospectus' Steve Givarz when he said of Cumberland, "His glove? Hey he’s a good hitter let’s focus on that!" It's not that he can't stay at catcher, but there's significant doubt whether or not his defense will ultimately take away from his overall value. You don't have to be a superb defender and a good hitter, but the team would like to know that your glove is good enough to not embarrass the team should you stick at the position. Furthermore, there is a reasonable concern that Cumberland's hit-by-pitch numbers are soft. Going back to college, he's always got hit by a healthy number of pitches (38 total this year). However, pitcher's control improves as you climb the minor league ladder. He has just one more unintentional walk this season than he does HBP so it's a big part of his game. What happens if pitchers avoid hitting him?

Tanner Murphy - I was a big fan of Murphy after he hit .242/.361/.389 with Danville in 2014 and earned a lot of praise along the way. However, his numbers have only regressed since. He seemed to turn the corner last season, hitting .297/.411/.337 after the All-Star Break, but he has struggled to duplicate the success since. While his defense remains solid, Murphy is struggling to find at-bats behind higher-rated prospects added to the system since Murphy's selection in 2013. When Bethancourt arrived in the majors, Murphy was the top catching prospect still in the minors. Now, he's not even in the Top 5.

Rome
Lucas Herbert, #36 - The good news is that Herbert's numbers have looked quite a good deal better with Rome than they did in 2016. The bad news is that they still don't look that great. On the year, Kolby Allard's former high school catcher is hitting .258/.317/.390 with 7 HR. A name comes up on his Baseball Prospectus page as a top similarity that might not make Braves' fans happy - Christian Bethancourt in 2012. While no one wants to compare the two, the idea is pretty fair - both had reputations as strong defenders with questionable offensive potential. Now, let's be generous here and remember that Herbert basically lost a season of development after he went down with an injury in his first professional game in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. Let's also recall that at 20 years-old with really one year of experience, one would expect Herbert's 2017 level of production considering his profile coming out of high school. Nevertheless, success has been hard to come by for Herbert to this point. His offensive game is still raw and he could be a sleeper candidate next year if it starts to come together, though

Carlos Martinez - Where did this come from? Martinez hit in the .220's the last two seasons for Danville but has found a way to hit .301 this season. Of course, when your BABIP jumps to .352 when it was never higher than .269, that helps. Martinez also has one of the strangest numbers in the system - an .010 ISO. Of his 31 hits, 30 are singles. That's astounding. It's also reason to believe that Martinez, even at his best, is not a prospect.

Drew Lugbauer, #44 - A recent callup from Danville, Lugbauer has yet to stop hitting. On the year, the former Michigan Wolverine is hitting .272/.374/.551 with nine doubles, a triple, and ten homeruns. All of the four-baggers came with Danville before the promotion to Rome. He's shared an equal amount of time between first base, third base, and catcher and hasn't looked that bad at the corners. His footwork behind the plate is not crisp, though, and he's failed to throw out any of the nine baserunners that have attempted to steal on him. Despite including him in this discussion, it's harder to see him staying behind the plate than either Jackson or Cumberland. He'll have to improve dramatically in that regard to continue to receive regular time as a catcher. The good news is that Lugbauer could present the Braves, if he develops well, with an interesting option that can catch if needed, but also play the corner infield positions. Such a player would have been nice in Atlanta this year with the production the Braves have received from both catchers and the hesitancy to use one or the other in a pinch hitting appearance.

Danville

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

William Contreras, #50 - I gave Contreras a #46 ranking in our Midseason Top 50 and Ryan Cothran ranked him two spots higher. I don't know about Ryan or Stephen Tolbert (who had him unranked), but Contreras is primed to be one of my biggest risers when we reconvene for a postseason update. The brother of the Cubs' Wilson, William OPS'd .783 and .721 over two years spent in the DSL and GCL before this year. Lauded for his defense, the bat was considered more of a question. This season, he's had the best year combining both offense and defense of any of the Braves' minor league catchers. Hitting .336/.426/.496 with 3 HR, Contreras has regularly flashed a bat capable of doing big things despite all but 19 of his 141 PA coming against pitchers older than he is. He also has shown a good command of the strikezone, walking four more times than he has struck out. His defense is very fluid behind the plate and only getting better as he refines his footwork and framing. Of the games I've personally seen this season, no catcher has prompted the umpire to receive more complaints from batters upset about strike calls. That tells me that he's capable at framing. But while all of his tools are solid, his biggest weapon is a cannon of an arm that he's not shy about showing at any time. He keeps his infielders on their toes as he's willing to try to pick off runners. He'll even gun it around the horn after a strikeout. I haven't seen a better defensive catcher this season in the Appalachian League and he's still only 19 years-old.

Hagan Owenby - Drafted more for his bat, Owenby played a good deal of first base and DH before Lugbauer's promotion just to get him into action. He's a leader on the field and does a good job working with his pitchers, but his defense isn't very good right now (he has five of Danville's 11 passed balls to this point). At the plate, he has a nice line-drive stroke that might develop more power as he progresses. His performances at first base were pretty ugly and I feel confident that he'll last at catcher, but I don't have the same amount of confidence that the bat will ever be enough to make up for defensive problems behind the plate.

Alan Crowley - Some people are drafted just to be backup catchers in the minors. Crowley is one of those guys. He did ride a high BABIP to a .327 average over 56 PA with Rome last year, but less balls are dropping this year and his .163 average is a result.

GCL

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Abraham Gutierrez, #33 - While Kevin Maitan received most of the coverage during last year's international signing spree by the Braves, Gutierrez is a pretty impressive prospect as well. He jumped to the states to begin this season with the GCL squad and the 17-year-old has hit a respectable .261/.327/.330. He's also thrown out 39% of baserunners, which is no small feat considering the ability for teenage pitchers to hold runners. Gutierrez's scouting report includes amazing athletism behind the plate, a strong arm, and a quick-and-powerful stroke at the plate. The emergence of Contreras this year as the best full-package catching prospect shouldn't negate Gutierrez, who still might have the best potential of any Braves minor league catching prospect.

Ricardo Rodriguez - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Rodriguez has been stuck with the Gulf Coast League Braves due to a weak offensive profile and not enough at-bats for all of the Braves catching prospects. Rodriguez is one of the guys who might get more extended look if the Braves opened some playing time by adding a second rookie team in the GCL or adding a short-season A-ball team for their college-age draftees like Owenby or Crowley. Rodriguez, by the way, has a strong glove and flashed a decent enough bat in the Dominican Summer League two years ago. It's been missing-in-action since coming stateside, though.

The Braves have more catchers, but these are some of the bigger names. What would your Top 5 Braves catching prospects look like? And do you think Jackson, Cumberland, and/or Lugbauer will stay at catcher long-term? Let me know in the comments.

Random Prospect Sunday - Tanner Murphy

TannerMurphy.com

Sometimes, you just have to be in the right place at the right time. For Tanner Murphy, that right time happened on a baseball diamond during his sophomore year of high school. The catcher on his travel team broke his thumb, prompting the coach to ask for a volunteer to put on the tools of ignorance. Murphy, a shortstop, went behind home plate and immediately threw out a greedy base runner trying to take advantage of the new catcher. For Murphy, it was a match made in heaven and would soon help him catch the eye of major league scouts.

Born on February 27, 1995, Murphy will turn 22 tomorrow. He graduated from Malden High School in southeast Missouri. A small city of just 4,275, Murphy was a star athlete who earned a scholarship to Southern Illinois University. However, the Braves came calling in the fourth round of the 2013 draft. The Braves had already taken Victor Caratini about 80 picks before Murphy, but were going to try Caratini out at third base, which made Murphy their top catching prospect from the draft by default. Murphy was also an option as a pitcher as he possessed low-90's velocity, but catcher seemed like his calling. Shortly after the draft, they inked the young man to a minor league contract with a $250,000 bonus - about $125K below the slot value.

At the time, Murphy may have been considered a stretch at #133. Ranked #488 in Baseball America's Top 500 rankings before the draft, Murphy fit the bill during the Frank Wren era. Safe, calculated picks that wouldn't demand the world and had pretty decent floors. Murphy's defense was pro-worthy, but could he hit?

After the draft, the 18-year-old headed to Florida to join the Gulf Coast League Braves in Lake Buena Vista. His bat never seemed to catch up, as he managed just 22 hits in 97 AB (.227 average). Only three of those hits went for extra bases - all doubles. He did on-base .313, which is solid enough considering where his average was. He did cut down 42% of potential base stealers (13-of-31). The next season put Murphy on the map a bit as a prospect. He hit just .242 with Danville, but bashed 5 homers in 191 PA. He showed an exceptional understanding of the strikezone with 30 walks, or a 16% walk rate. He did much of his best work over his final 29 games, slashing .292/.389/.438.

His quick rise in prospect status continued the next spring. Braves bullpen coach Eddie Perez took an immediate liking to the country boy from Missouri. "When you look at this kid, you know something good is going to happen," the former long-time personal catcher of Greg Maddux said. It was Murphy's first training camp with the big league club, an award for his strong 2014 campaign. At the time, the Braves were breaking in Christian Bethancourt as their new starter behind the plate and hoped they wouldn't need Murphy for a few years. Former Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez noted, "He's got some talent and he's got some ability...(Catching instructor) Joe Breeden has seen him the most and Joe likes him a lot."

Not only would 2015 be Murphy's first big-league camp, but also his first taste of full-season ball. Former Fangraphs prospect guru Kiley McDaniel ranked Murphy as the #22nd best prospect in an improving system, noting that, "The Braves really like this kid and see a breakout year coming in 2015 at Low-A, praising his makeup, receiving ability, solid average arm, average raw power and flashes of hitting ability and an approach." Murphy headed to Rome to join another catcher picked with a high-round choice the year before Murphy in Bryan De La Rosa. The two shared the position and shared in the misery of an awful season at the plate. In De La Rosa's final season in the system, the former third-rounder hit .205/.277/.322. That's bad, but slightly better than Murphy, who slashed .193/.277/.312. His walk rate dropped 6% while his K-rate spiked 4% to nearly a quarter of all plate appearances. Just 20 years-old, it was the kind of ugly campaign you hope is the strange outlier in an otherwise productive minor league career.

Most of the time, a prospect that has such a down year would get a repeat assignment, but traffic was getting crowded behind Murphy. With 2015 draftees Lucas Herbert and Jonathan Morales joining Rome, Murphy moved up the ladder to the Carolina League. The league is known to favor pitchers, which did not improve Murphy's chances for a big bounceback season. Some of his metrics did improve (12.6% walk rate, 16.5% K-rate), but what Murphy did with his swings were less than thrilling. He hit just .214 with 15 EBH in 334 PA.

But...that's not the complete story. Murphy got off to an epically bad start to open 2016. It was the kind of start that often gets players cut. Over his first 30 games, Murphy had just 12 hits in 100 AB (110 PA). It doesn't take a mathematician to know how bad that is. He wasn't walking, had just one extra base hit, and was K'd a fifth of the time. He started to get some of his power back over his next eleven games and then, on the day before the All-Star Break, his stance was altered to loosen him up at the plate. The results were pretty immediate. He walked twice in his first game with the new stance and hit a homer in his second game. Over his final 48 games, Murphy slashed .288/.412/.390 with 3 homers. No longer pressing, he walked 30 times to 26 K's over his final 182 PA. Murphy's bat, for the first time in two years, was an asset to his team.

As we move into 2017, it doesn't get any easier for Murphy. Mississippi's catching situation seems packed. Kade Scivicque was added to the organization late last year and finished with a cameo in Pearl. Joseph Odom also played 39 games in Mississippi after a callup from Carolina while the Braves added Armando Araiza this offseason. With little room at Triple-A, the Braves could opt to keep Murphy at the High-A level, though how much time is available there is also suspect. The aforementioned Morales and/or Herbert could be moved up the chain - especially with Brett Cumberland coming up from Danville. Further, Alex Jackson is moving to catcher and will demand much of the playing time with whatever A-level squad he starts with. Despite Murphy's strong finish, he could find it difficult to find at-bats once the 2017 season begins. The fact that Scivicque and Odom were non-roster invitees while Murphy wasn't does not bode well, either.

Whatever the case, Murphy is easy to root for. I've linked to a recent interview he did with Talking Chop earlier in this profile and it's an eye opener into the struggles he went through over the last two years and how he kept striving for success. However, the name of the game is production. Murphy will need to get off to a good start to avouid being forgotten in the rapidly improving catcher depth Atlanta now has. If he continues to hit like he did in the second half of 2016, he'll definitely be hard to forget.

Follow Murphy on Twitter @tsmurph14

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #42-#31

Last week, I began my Top 50 prospects and almost immediately, the Atlanta Braves swung a deal for more prospects. So...thanks for that, John Coppolella.

I kid, but the trade forced me to change my Top 50 to a Top 52 as both players acquired jumped right into the list with one appearing in today's portion. To get me back on track, today's part of the list will be supersized to a dozen. Short of another trade, I'll release ten more next week and ten more the following week before splitting the Top 10 into two parts. I also must apologize for this post being so late. I've been sick the last few days and had trouble wrapping my head around this list. 

When I originally did my Top 50 prospect list, I had Kyle Kinman ranked #38. However, I realized he was actually 26 and I like to keep my prospect lists limited to 25-and-under and players designated as a rookie. With that said, I thought his placement was worth a mention. Lastly, please check out Gondeee's Top 30 Braves prospects that he published this week. As usual, it's a valuable read. 

42. Jonathan Morales, Catcher, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

It wasn't the season many had hoped for with Morales. After blitzing the Gulf Coast Lague (.304/.377/.511) the previous year, Morales jumped to Rome in 2016 and saw a 220 point drop in his OPS. Included was a long stretch of 41 games where he hit .151/.241/.212. That month-plus really impacted his numbers, though even if you take those games out, it was still a far cry from his 2015 run after he was a 25th round pick.

Morales has decent pop and won't strike out much. The flipside of that is he's so aggressive that he's unlikely to take many walks. Offensively, the right-handed hitter needs his hit tool to stand out and it simply did not in 2016. Defensively, though scouting reports aren't high on him, he's had solid metrics and has impressively gunned down half of the 106 baserunners that attempted to steal on him. He also played a little third and had a three-inning cameo in right field, though that was likely more for emergencies.

With the depth behind Morales, he'll be pushed up to Florida in the spring and will need a bounceback season. Obviously, by the fact I ranked him so high, I think he's capable of it. While I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as other catchers in the system, he is part of a much-improved catching depth that was non-existent two years ago.

41. Steve Janas, RHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C 

Holy groundballs! Janas has maintained a groundball rate in the minors of over 55% during his young career. In nearly 300 innings, he's given up just 14 homers. However, what holds back Janas is that he lacks a true pair of plus pitches or the velocity to push him higher on prospect lists. Nevertheless, this is a results-driven business and the results aren't too shabby for Janas.

Though he won't blow you away with heat, he can hit mid-90's. The downside of doing so is that it makes his fastball straight and easy to both see and pound. As a result, he'll sit in the low-90's with his sinker and cutter. He also has a plus changeup and an inconsistent breaking curveball. Janas was a starter until last season when he got pushed to the bullpen. 

His control and ability to generate groundballs will get him looks and his fearlessness on the mound makes him a wild card. However, the lack the stuff and strikeout ability may limit him to Quad-A filler/organizational depth similar to one of his most common comparable pitchers according to Clay Davenport's projection system - Zeke Spruill. Strangely, both righties went to high school in Marietta. Janas will get a look this spring, but with Josh Collmenter already on the team, Janas is likely going to provide long relief/swingman depth behind a talented Gwinnett rotation.

40. Chad Sobotka, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C 

Similar to A.J. Minter, the Braves drafted Sobotka in 2014 knowing that he wouldn't pitch until the next season. As opposed to Tommy John surgery like Minter had, Sobotka was coming back from a stress fracture in his back, which put an ugly end to his collegiate career with the University of South Carolina-Upstate.

His 2015 season was limited to just 37 innings and they were rarely good, but the 6'7" righty bounced back in 2016. His numbers with Rome look poor (4.26 ERA, more hits than innings pitched), but the Braves still liked what they were seeing and promoted him to Carolina. In 13 games there, Sobotka finally started to perform with a 2.04 ERA/1.51 FIP over 17.2 innings. He struck out 24 and walked just three - a far cry from the dozen he walked in just 19 innings with Rome to begin the year. By season's end, he had joined Minter in Mississippi for two appearances.

Sobotka's velocity is good, though not great. However, he gets great movement and his two-seamer can get a good number of grounders. His slider has plus-potential and while he has a changeup, he will mostly work off his fastball/slider. Sobotka could be in the majors sometime in 2017, though with just 75.2 innings as a professional, Atlanta might go slow with him. Either way, Sobotka looks like he has a shot to be a solid righty with high-leverage potential.



39. William Contreras, Catcher, 19 years-old, Grade: C+

Over two seasons, Contreras has shown that he could be capable of being a big sleeper in a system with rapidly improving catcher depth. Just 19 years-old, Contreras signed out of Venezuela and made his debut with the 2015 Dominican Summer League team. His triple slash of .314/.370/.413 was solid enough before you consider his age (17) and position.

Contreras moved up to the Gulf Coast League this year, where he shared time with Ricardo Rodriguez (acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade) and 26th rounder Alan Crowley. His numbers took a bit of a dive to .264/.346/.375. He displays a quick bat and there is some power projection.

Scouts rave about Contreras's defensive ability behind the plate and how he handles pitchers. I like his offensive potential as well. He's the type of player who could easily have a breakout campaign and jump up this list quickly. While he'll be ticketed for a stop in Danville for 2017, I do hope he plays his way up to Rome, which would further cement his prospect potential.

38. Bradley Roney, RHP, 24 years-old, Grade: C+

For three years, Roney has both excited Braves fans with big K numbers and frustrated Braves management because he often doesn't know where his pitches are going. In 67.2 innings last year in the high levels of the minor leagues, Roney struck out 88 - the most strikeouts by a Braves reliever and tied for 15th in the entire system. That strikeout rate was actually down a tad from 2015. Unfortunately, his walk rate continues to be his Achilles' heel.

In 2016, Roney issued 54 unintentional walks - a rate of about seven every nine innings. His strike percentage was about 6% below the league average. You can't survive for long doing that no matter how good his curve is - and it's really good. It's a major league quality pitch, but without pitching ahead in the count more frequently, hitters can let the curve dart below the strikezone.

Last year at this time, we looked at Mauricio Cabrera in much the same way as Roney. Sure, Cabrera had 100 mph heat and some good secondary stuff, but will he throw strikes? Cabrera was a higher rated talent, but Roney can have a similar impact on the major league roster if he can only throw strikes. No better time than 2017 to start.



37. Thomas Burrows, LHP, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

Acquired last week in the Mallex Smith trade, Burrows was the #117 pick of the 2016 draft. Before that, he became the all-time saves leader at the University of Alabama. It's easy to look over Burrows when the Braves also acquired Luiz Gohara in this deal, but Burrows has a good chance to get to the majors - and soon.

Burrows pitched in the short-season Northwest League after he was drafted and blitzed the circuit with 37 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. That comes out to a third of all batters he faced. He gave up a lot of hits, though a .367 BABIP will do that to you. The walk rate wasn't good, but competent enough to help Burrows earn a 2.88 FIP.

Burrows gets good sinking movement from his low-to-mid 90's heater and his slider improved dramatically in 2016. Lefties have a very difficult time even picking up the ball and that will likely continue to be an asset for the southpaw. Whether he can be a full-inning reliever and high-leverage asset will be something to watch as he moves up the ladder.

36. Connor Lien, OF, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

It was not the season many had hoped for Lien in 2016 - least of all the outfielder himself. In 2015, Lien burst onto the scene with a .285/.347/.415 clip in the pitching-friendly Carolina League with 36 extra-base hits and 34 steals. The season was awarded with a trip to the Arizona Fall League, which is where the video below came from

However, an early season hand injury put Lien on the shelf for over two months in 2016. The 22-year-old also struggled when he was in the field, slashing just .233/.320/.408 with a 33% strikeout rate. On the bright side, he continued to display tremendous defense in center field.

Lien possesses good pop and his defense includes an elite arm and great instincts and range. However, his bat still needs a bit more refining. The plus side is that even with his negatives last year, the .175 ISO and 9% walk rate help to put an optimistic spin on the season. He'll likely repeat Mississippi to begin 2017 and try to trend positive once again.

35. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C+

After a lost year to Tommy John surgery, Biddle will be given the chance to return and flourish in 2017. A former top prospect for the Phillies who the Braves acquired from the Pirates after the latter tried to sneak him through waivers. 

I recently wrote a scouting report about Biddle so I would rather not spend too much time rehashing it here so here are the highlights. Biddle is a former Top 100 Prospect who struggles with his release point. If he can find more consistency with it, he can get over his fastball and let the pitch work for him. His curveball has exceptional bite and is his best pitch. 

Biddle will have a shot to compete for a spot in the bigs this spring, but I imagine the Braves see 2017 as a year for Biddle to work on things rather than pressure himself with a big league assignment. A decent spring and a bill of health will allow him to begin the year in Gwinnett. If not, he could start a level lower. Regardless, Biddle could be a sneaky-good move by the Braves front office if he's able to rebound.

34. Caleb Dirks, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

After a year in the Dodgers' system, Dirks returned last year to the organization that spent a 15th round pick on him back in 2014. Not that it has mattered much to Dirks - he continues to dominate opposing hitters every step of the way.

In 143.1 innings, Dirks has a beautiful 1.32 ERA and an FIP under 3.00. He won't put up ridiculous strikeout numbers - especially for this system, but he's been close to a 30% K-rate regardless. What makes Dirk especially good is his control. He had about a 20% difference between his strikeouts and walks - an elite number worth celebrating.

Dirks doesn't have the best stuff and his velocity won't wow anyone, but he knows how to throw his pitches and hits his spots. Last year, that was especially true because about 43% of his pitches came with Dirks ahead in the count. The average is roughly 6-7% lower. Dirks may lack the ceiling of some relieving prospects the Braves have, but as long as he continues to pitch like he has, he'll have his opportunity to impress.

33. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Year 2 of Ricardo's time with the Braves was much healthier than his 10-start 2015 campaign, but the results remained underwhelming for the teenager who won't turn 20 until April 11. The last fact gives the Braves hope that 2017 will be the year Sanchez begins to scratch the surface of his talent.

Talent and stuff-wise, Sanchez can excite you on a good day with low 90's heat and a very good curveball. His delivery is smooth and he adds a developing changeup that often can make or break him on any given day depending on his feel for the pitch.

Sanchez is trying to put it all together. He's prone to a big inning and can sometimes lose focus. Undersized, Sanchez can resemble a bulldog when in trouble as he tries to get out of jams. He's a competitor and a strong worker - he just needs to be more consistent. It's hard to get noticed in this system if you weren't a #1 pick, but Sanchez has the stuff to be a sleeper in 2017.




32. Lucas Herbert, Catcher, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Kolby Allard's catcher in high school, Herbert was picked in the second round of the 2015 draft. Many assumed the Braves were hedging their bets in order to keep Allard from going to college rather than signing. However, I thought the Braves really liked what Herbert brought to the table and felt he was worth the pick. To this point, we haven't seen the results to support that contention.

It's early, yes, and Herbert was aggressively moved to Low-A Rome probably before he was ready. As a result, only 12 of the 367 PA he logged last year came against pitchers younger than him. Herbert struggled last year to find the right stance, the right setup with his hands, the right amount of batting gloves. He seems to me like a batter that really needs to rework much of what he does at the plate. If he can find consistency at the plate, his plus power will be a weapon and could be the difference between a starting and backup role in the majors should he get there.

Defensively, Herbert is a tremendous force behind the plate. He's incredibly athletic and shows great footwork along with great instincts at reading the ball. These skills will give him a chance to stick around even if his bat is still lagging behind, but I do hope the Braves show a bit more patience with him. He clearly did not appear ready for Rome and could use a return assignment. However, with so many catchers now in the system, finding at-bats for all of them is becoming a bit more difficult. Still, Herbert's power and defense are worth an extended look.


31. Ray-Patrick Didder, Outfield, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

The converted infielder had spent three years at rookie ball showing a good idea of the strikezone, but not much else. That changed in 2016 when the now center fielder settled into the position with Rome. In nearly 600 plate appearances, Didder posted a .361 wOBA with the aid of a .387 OBP. He added a .107 ISO to go with 37 steals.

One thing that stands out quickly about Didder is that he trusts his hands enough to crowd the plate. Last year, he was hit 39 times, the most in minor league baseball. While he has great speed, he's still developing an eye for when to steal. Defensively, he's a surprisingly rather good there despite being a middle infielder only a few years ago. He has the range to play center with a strong and accurate arm.

Up until this point, Didder has been about league average in age each year. That might change this year as a strong start with the Fire Frogs could get the 22-year-old promoted to Mississippi by summer. Such a move would cement his place as a strong outfield prospect. Either way, if Didder keeps developing like he did last year, the Braves will be very pleased with the Arubian native.

2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.