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Showing posts with label Hinske. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hinske. Show all posts

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Thursday Throwback - Reed Johnson

Sometimes, moves just don't pan out like they ought to. That was the case of the 2012 midseason trade that sent Reed Johnson, along with Paul Maholm, to the Braves. The trade was born out of a move that didn't happen and ultimately, failed to deliver despite looking like a good deal on paper for Frank Wren. Even when Wren made the right move, it just didn't seem to work.

But long before that trade, Reed Johnson was born a few weeks before Christmas in 1976. A product of Riverside, California, Johnson was a star in both baseball and soccer in high school. His success there landed him a coveted scholarship opportunity with Cal-State Fullerton, where he was an Academic All-American and posted strong offensive numbers as a catalyst for the Titans' offense. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson played well enough during his college years to move into the 17th round of the draft, which is where the Blue Jays took him. The '99 draft wasn't very good for the Jays. They took Alex Rios with their first round pick and he did develop into a decent player, but only three other players made it to the majors, including Johnson, the second-best player taken that year by Toronto.

After a summer of adjusting to pro ball, Johnson became an overnight prospect in 2000. He spent the year at two different A-ball stops and slashed .298/.420/.479, flashing plus-plus plate discipline and enough power and speed to be a very intriguing prospect. In 2001, this time at Double-A, Johnson became a name to watch. Spending the year with the Tennessee Smokies, Johnson slashed .314/.384/.451. The walk total was a bit of a letdown, but Johnson filled out his baseball card with 29 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, and 42 steals. The Southern League All-Star looked like he was a great late-round find for the Blue Jays and a player that could help them very soon.

After missing most of 2002 with injury, Johnson worked his way into the picture for the big league club in 2003. After opening the year in the minors, Johnson would soon establish himself as a major league performer with a strong summer. In 114 games in the majors, Johnson hit .294 with 10 homers and a .353 on-base percentage. The Jays had opened the year with super sub Frank Catalanotto in right field, but an injury to Shannon Stewart opened left for Catalanotto and allowed Johnson to slide into right field. Bobby Kielty would later join the team, cutting into Johnson's playing time, but Johnson proved his worth by being the Blue Jays' most used leadoff hitter.

For the next two years, Johnson was the regular left fielder for the Jays and was unspectacular in his job before a breakout 2006 campaign saw Johnson hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 homers. He led the AL in getting hit by a pitch that season as well. However, his success was short-lived. During an injury-marred 2007 season, he hit just .236 over 79 games. Johnson struggled the next spring as well and with the Jays feeling a roster crush, Toronto surprisingly released Johnson as spring training was nearing its end. The five-year pro would not remain available for long as he landed with the Cubs. A bench bat and platoon player, Johnson was a perfect fit in Chicago. He OPS'd .778 his first season with the Cubbies before slashing .255/.330/.412 during an injury-shortened 2009 season.

Johnson took his talents out west and played for the Dodgers in 2010, which wasn't much of a trip from the city he was born (Riverside). He struggled with in Los Angeles, though, and lasted just one year before returning to the Cubs in 2011. Like he had never left, his success returned.

That brings us to the 2012 season. The Cubs were in the first year of their rebuild under Theo Epstein. The former Red Sox mastermind had just hired Jed Hoyer to be their General Manager. That season, the Cubs were breaking in young Anthony Rizzo at first base (who, interestingly enough, Hoyer had dealt to the Cubs as the Padres' GM) and Chicago was trying to add young talent to the mix to build what eventually would become a winner. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were trying to get back to the playoffs after their 2011 collapse during then-manager Fredi Gonzalez's first year at the helm. The Cubs and Braves seemed like a perfect match and a week before the trading deadline, a deal seemed imminent. However, neither Johnson, nor lefthander Paul Maholm, were part of it.

Atlanta was desperate to add a starter to their team that they could count on. With Jair Jurrjens looking like a lost cause, the Braves had turned to Ben Sheets. 25 year-old Tommy Hanson was struggling and Brandon Beachy, also 25, had made just 13 starts before going down with injury. They still had Tim Hudson while Mike Minor was improving, as a team with playoff aspirations, Atlanta did not have the kind of rotation that would be able to compete against the big boys of the National League. Atlanta thought they had found their man in Ryan Dempster. The former closer had been excellent to begin 2012 with a 2.11 ERA through his first 15 starts. While Dempster wasn't an ace, he was the kind of bulldog starter that gave his manager and general manager a bit more confidence than hoping Sheets could make it through the summer or that Hanson could turn the corner.

Wren and Hoyer found the right mix of players that would make the deal happen. Atlanta would send young Randall Delgado to the Cubs, which would finally separate the four pitchers of the future (Minor, Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino). Another prospect would head to Chicago as well and the Braves would get Dempster. One little problem, though. With over 14 years of experience, including eight full seasons with the Cubs, Dempster qualified as a 10-5 player and could nix any deal. Dempster was open to a trade, but preferred to head out west where he could join his good buddy Ted Lilly and the Dodgers. While Dempster weighed his options - and definitely held out hope for a move to the Dodgers - the Braves grew agitated. All the perimeters were agreed upon and the deal had been leaked out to the public. Wren set a deadline for Dempster, but the right-hander refused to make a decision as he held out hope Los Angeles would step up. Atlanta ultimately took themselves out of the process rather than watch Dempster play the part of the girl with a date to the Prom all lined up, but is still hoping to go with the high school quarterback rather than the dude that actually wants to be with her. Not that I know anything about that...

The Braves still wanted a pitcher, but could not find a Dempster-like arm on the trade market. Instead, they called Hoyer up and asked about Maholm. A long time Pirate, Maholm had joined the Cubs the previous offseason and he was also having a good season. Not a great one like Dempster, but would give the Braves a serviceable left-hand arm for their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves did find their front-of-the-rotation arm by moving Kris Medlen into the rotation.  Coming along for the ride with Maholm and some bags of cash was Johnson. The Braves were stacked in the outfield with rookie Jason Heyward joining Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, but the prospect of adding a right-handed bat like Johnson to pair with Eric Hinske coming off the bench was a great fit. The Braves still broke up their four previously untouchable arms by sending Arodys Vizcaino to the Cubs in the deal along with reliever Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino was on the mend after having Tommy John surgery that spring.

Johnson got into 43 games down the stretch for the Braves and hit .270. He would get fairly regular time with Prado moving all over the field and helped to give the Braves their first real backup option to Bourn during the 2012 season. Both Prado and Bourn would be gone the next winter and would be replaced by Justin and Melvin "B.J" Upton Jr. Johnson, a free agent, liked Atlanta enough to return for a second year. He missed all of August with Achilles tendinitis, but missed even more time because Johnson was not a regular in the mix for the Braves even with the failures of the elder Upton. Instead, Johnson took a back seat to Jordan Schafer, who had returned after being claimed on waivers, and rookie Evan Gattis, who occasionally played left field to get his bat into the lineup more often. Johnson received five fewer plate appearances than Gerald Laird during the 2013 season and Johnson struggled to connect the bat to the ball with any authority.

During his year-and-a-half with the Braves, Johnson hit .256/.308/.332 with one homer, a pinch-hit two-run shot off former Braves farmhand Todd Redmond - then a member of Johnson's first team, the Jays. Johnson would struggle during a 2014 season spent as a reserve in Miami and continued his tour through the NL East with a stop in Washington next. A torn tendon in his left calf limited him to just 17 games with the Nats. He returned to DC the following year, but failed to make the roster coming out of camp last spring. I do not know if he's given up the dream of playing baseball again or not, but at 40 years-old, it seems unlikely that he'll continue his career.

His time with the Braves was short and ultimately uneventful. In the end, like many of Wren's deals, it just never worked like it should have. Of course, the Braves ended up re-acquiring Arodys Vizcaino from this deal so it cost precious little for Atlanta - even if it wasn't the deal they wanted.

Previous Throwbacks...
Mike Mordecai (1994-97)
David Ross (2009-12)
Ryan Langerhans (2002-03, 2005-07)

...or view ALL of them.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

TOT: Braves Go Double on Ex-AL 3Bs

Transaction Of Today - January 5, 2010...The Atlanta Braves signed Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske as free agents.


Sorry, couldn't find a Braves pic with both
Jay Gula | Getty Images
The 2009 Atlanta Braves finished short in their bid to return to the playoffs, but had high expectations entering 2010 to rectify that. Jason Heyward was about to arrive, they had some nice young pieces in the rotation like Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson, and had just added Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to what was supposed to be a good bullpen. But they had a hole at first base. Freddie Freeman was a year away so they sought some stopgap options and got a pair of them with Glaus and Hinske.

Make no mistake - this was supposed to be Glaus's show. The 2000 AL Homerun Champ, Glaus had been productive in 2008 before missing most of the following year. He was breaking down due to injuries, but the Braves rolled the dice that he could handle first base, a position he had played sparingly in his career, and provide some power. The previous year had seen the Braves replace an ineffective Casey Kotchman with Adam LaRoche, but Sleepypants left for bigger money. The hope was that Glaus simply could stay healthy enough in his age-33 year to give Atlanta enough production.

As for 'Ski, he gave the Braves another power bat and a little outfield insurance if Heyward struggled. The 2002 AL Roockie of the Year had reached 400 plate appearances just once in the previous five years, but was a productive platoon/bench option along with being a high-character player.

Things got off to a poor start for Glaus and he ended the first month of the season with a .194/.310/292 line. May would see him get hot, though, as he slashed .330/.408/.534 during the month with 6 HR while being named NL Player of the Month. Atlanta, who had began the year much like Glaus (9-14 in April), surged with 20 victories in May and were just a half-game out when the month ended. They would win their next four to increase a win streak to nine and took over the NL East until September when the Phillies passed them. Like the Braves, Glaus couldn't retain his torrent May pace as summer dragged on. While productive for most of June, Glaus collapsed in a 39-game stretch from June 28 to August 17 when he slashed just .172/.282/.267. His struggles would prompt the Braves to trade for Derrek Lee in August so that they could DL and rest Glaus. He would make it back in September and started a pair of games at first base with a brief cameo at third base mixed in.

Hinske got off to a wonderful start with an RBI triple on opening day (aka the game Heyward homered in his AB). He was OPSing over a thousand as late as June 1 and received increased playing time in place of the jerkish loafer Melky Cabrera. His overall numbers declined as a result, He also played a good deal at first for Glaus. By the end of the year, Hinske's slash was a solid .256/.338/.456 with 11 HR.

Both players would get their postseason moment. Not expected to play in the field, Glaus was supposed to provide a bench option for the depleted Braves, who were missing both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado as the NLDS against the Giants began. After falling 1-0 in the opener, Game 2 in San Francisco was tied at four as the tenth began. In a double switch, the Braves moved Omar Infante to second base for the hapless Brooks Conrad and put Glaus in at third with Billy Wagner coming into pitch. Wagner would hurt himself on a sacrifice bunt, which would be his last game. Kyle Farnsworth entered and promptly hit Freddy Sanchez and walked Aubrey Huff. With Buster Posey at the plate and the infield drawn-in, Posey sent a screamer to third. Glaus, who had played just two innings all year at third base, could have gone to home to get the potential game-winning runner, but instead opted to throw to second. Infante caught it and gunned down Posey at first base (video). The double play extended the game into the 11th and Rick Ankiel hit a 2-2 homer to put the Braves ahead and tie up the series.

Hinske nearly put the Braves in a position to push the Giants to the brink. With the score 1-0 in the 8th inning in Game 3, Glaus was announced as the pinch hitter to face Jonathan Sanchez with a runner on first. San Francisco countered with Sergio Romo which prompted Bobby Cox to go with 'Ski. On the sixth pitch of the at-bat with the count 2-2, Romo hung a slider and Hinske hammered it just beyond the right-field wall (video). However, Craig Kimbrel, then a rookie pressed into closer duty with the Wagner injury, blew it in the ninth and the Giants won. They would go onto win Game 4 as well.

While he stuck around for two more years, Hinske's OPS fell from .793 to .713 to .583 in 2012. He would play one more year, this time with Arizona, before retiring. He's moved into coaching since and is an assistant hitting coach for the Cubs. As for Glaus, he would get the start in Game 4, but went hitless. It was the last game he played. He kept the option of returning opening for a year, but never got an offer he couldn't say "no" to. He officially retired in December of 2011 and is eligible for the Hall of Fame this year, though he's unlikely to get 5% to stick around for another year.

Ultimately, the signings that were announced six years ago today gave us two of the best postseason moments of the last decade. All in all, a good day.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Meh...

Let's start with this undisputable fact. The decision the Braves faced wasn't to keep Jason Heyward and get a compensation draft choice vs. getting Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins, and signing Nick Markakis. This makes John Hart's decision-making look better, but lumping Markakis into that isn't fair. Both deals should be looked at separately for what they do for the club. Theoretically, you can make the argument that they should be tied together because without trading Heyward, the signing wouldn't happen, but that might not be true since the Braves, even after replacing Heyward, may still deal their other corner outfielder, Justin Upton.

So, let's delve deeper into the signing of Markakis. It sucks.

While many have continued to praise this signing, it's a miserable investment for Atlanta and that's with the acceptance that Markakis probably won't be overpaid over the lifetime of the contract. If 1 fWAR is worth  $7 million this offseason, Markakis would simply have to [produce 6 to 7 fWAR to fulfill his value to the Braves. Even if you think Markakis isn't worth the investment, $44M over four seasons is not an unreasonable sum for someone who posted 5.8 fWAR over the last four seasons and was hurt in one of those years (plus posted a 0.0 fWAR in an entire 700 PA season, which still boggles my mind).

And no, David O'Brien, fWAR shouldn't account for everything. We use it as a simple comparison tool. Over the last two completely healthy seasons, years where Markakis has came to the plate at least 700 times, and two full years since his hamate bone fracture in 2012, Markakis' offensive skills come out in full sad detail. Let me start by saying 122 players qualify for this two year comparison. Markakis ranks as such: 114th in isolated power (.098), 98th in wOBA (.312), and 97th in RC+ (97).

The majority of players that consistently rank below Markakis in those three good stats for comparing offense are players whose value likes in defense like Andrelton Simmons, Gerardo Parra, and Zack Cozart. And yet, we have continuously been told about Markakis's defensive capabilities. After all, we are talking about a two time Gold Glove winner, including last year. So the argument has been thrown around that the Braves replaced a Gold Glove winner with a Gold Glove winner. That argument is correct. However, that argument ignores that Gold Glove choices aren't always justified by the numbers. In 2012, Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen robbed the Braves of an All Gold Glove outfield, awards that should have gone to Martin Prado and Michael Bourn. As Joe Posnaski points out, Gold Gloves have come some way, but they still appear to award guys based on their hitting ability.

That would explain how Markakis has two of the awards because the defensive metrics do not support him. His defense reminds me of what people say about his new teammate Freddie Freeman. Sure-handed and with a plus arm for his position, Markakis, like Freeman, lack one important ability. Range. Markakis has always been below average when it comes to range in right field (often nearing the category of awful). You can limit that affect through defensive shifts and your pitchers pitching to the defensive alignment, but there will almost certainly be times where his range shows up. Another Braves comparison on defense might be the guy whose batted ball was the last chance Markakis was credited an error on. Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy had his pluses...notably his tremendous arm...but his range was poor. He won a Gold Glove, though. Because...reasons.

This signing would look a good deal better as a two-year contract, but the Braves gave him four years. Like they gave Derek Lowe. You might recall Lowe's time in Atlanta, though if you've blocked it out, I can't blame you. Lowe was a limited pitcher who earned more praise from the media than from sabermetric outlets, though there were fewer voices on the latter front at the time. While one can (and has) argue(d) that Lowe's signing was out of desperation and giving him four years was a response to a need to sign someone after missing out on other targets, I believe giving a guy four years when he's coming off the two worst power seasons of his career and doesn't stand a high chance of improving is fairly desperate.

Now, maybe Markakis is a wonderful leader. After all, some Baltimore Orioles are upset that their team let him go. I understand the argument that over a 162 game season, leadership does have value and the Braves may have lost leadership over the last three years with departures of Chipper Jones, Prado, Brian McCann, David Ross, and Eric Hinske. I'm not against grabbing a player with leadership skills. But let's not pay for it.

Finally, the thing that strikes me about this signing is the disconnect between the more traditional baseball fan and the one that goes to fangraphs so often that Crome automatically assumes when you type "f," you are headed there instead of facebook. Mike Petriello wrote a great article yesterday ahead of the announced signing about this. Markakis was amazingly a highly sought after free agent despite being similar to Nori Aoki. This mentality was reinforced with social media announcements of praise along with blog posts from people I respect saying that this signing was a good one. To me, and people who think like me, the most we can say is that we are cautiously optimistic. Maybe Markakis's increase in range last year lasts. Maybe he plays so well in the first two years that the deal becomes a no brainer in terms of bang for buck. Maybe home cooking will do him some good. Maybe, if, possibly, if we get lucky...

But my realistic expectations are very low. This deal reeks of desperation. It's as if Hart can't decide between rebuilding and building for a 2015 where the Braves are competing. I'm rather curious as to where the direction is in the general manager's office, but then I remember that Hart was too good for that title. What's next? Trading Upton for three prospects and giving Jon Lester a six year deal?

My biggest worry this offseason was that the front office would half-ass a rebuild rather than full-ass. So far, my worry has intensified.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Braves Seeking Heyward Without the All-Around Ability

According to Jon Heyman, the Atlanta Braves are considered one of the leaders to sign former Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis this offseason. Obviously, there is no contract to speak of, but some projected Markakis to be in the $45M-$50M over four years range, an average salary of at least $11M.

Some went to twitter to show their agreement.

Some, like me, wondered just what in the wide world of sports is going on here? I know the Braves need an outfielder, especially if they are still in the market to trade Justin Upton, but how does a 31 year-old two-win player fit into the picture?

More, the Braves already had Markakis in a way. Before his trade last month, Jason Heyward was expected to man one of the outfield positions. Offensively, the two have rather similar numbers throughout their careers, even if Markakis has roughly twice as many games. They aren't exactly the same as Heyward walked and struck out more while Markakis hit for a higher batting average. Other numbers are much closer. ISO (.167-.145 - Heyward), wOBA (.347-.345 - Markakis), RC+ (117-112 - Heyward). Here is a comparison of the two by year in wOBA. Pay special attention to when Heyward came into the league and how similar the two are.


Heyward had one thing that Markakis severely lacks, however. All-around ability. Base-running, base-stealing, and some of the best defense in baseball - this was how Heyward provided the team value. That is how Heyward, in a season where he showed depressingly low power, was twice the player as Markakis according to fWAR. Since coming into the league, Heyward has amassed 21.4 fWAR in five seasons. Markakis, in nine seasons, has amassed 22.6. If we limit that to since Heyward joined the Braves, despite playing in what we traditionally refer to as the prime of his career (upper 20's), Markakis has been worth just 8.2 fWAR. That includes a ridiculous 2013 campaign where Markakis came to the plate 700 times and was credited with 0.0 fWAR, a mathematical improbability.

Again, that was playing in his ages 26 through 30 seasons. Therein lies the other problem with Markakis. He just turned 31 and, in a four-year contract, would be playing through his age-34 year. He's posted his three worst wOBA's in the last four years. To his credit, outside of one year, he has been very durable. The caveat to that statement is that the one year, 2012, was a season in which he fractured his hamate bone in his right wrist. This is not an uncommon injury in baseball to hitters, though. Former Brave Eric Hinske suffered it in 2003 and switch-hitter and recently very rich Pablo Sandoval has suffered it to both wrists. It shouldn't have sapped him of much power, though his ISO over the last two years are noticeably lower than the rest of his career.

Further, signing Markakis is a confusing addition for a team shedding salary and building for the future. On a two-year deal, it makes a little sense. Markakis could play out this season and the Braves, if they struggle in 2016, could use him for a deadline trade. But now? With this team? On a four year contract? It just doesn't seem like a move that a team with a MLB-experienced front office would do.

Of course, Atlanta could be blowing smoke up our butts. Keep talking to every free agent and perform your due diligence, all the while giving the home fans some rumors to distract them. Similar to Jon Lester, the Braves are just kicking the tires and no offer will be made. I can hope so because Markakis is exactly the wrong player for the Braves to make a splash on.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Favorite Braves List - #3 Starter

(Previous information on this series can be found here. Of importance, this is not a best list, but a favorites list since I started to follow the Braves.)

Favorite Braves List (so far)
Ace Starter - Greg Maddux
#2 Starter - John Smoltz
Catcher - Brian McCann
First Base - Fred McGriff
Second Base - Marcus Giles

Favorite Braves List - #3 Starter
Tim Hudson

What a strange week to add Huddy to the Favorite Braves squad. I wrote about him on Monday, making light of his tremendous start to 2014. And later that day, an article from USA Today made the rounds of twitter that indicated Huddy was offended by the Braves this last offseason. According to Tim, it was a "slap in the face" that Atlanta didn't provide an offer that he felt was deserving of a pitcher of his stature. He was disappointed "after what (he) had done for them," that they didn't want him back. I don't want to devote much time on this when I'm supposed to talk about all the things that I liked about Hudson, but Hudson would be wise to remember that this is a business. I'm sure had he taken a few extra million to play for the Giants over, say the Dodgers, it would have been about business. He would later walk back the quote in a recent article by Mark Bowman.

But anywho...I still like Hudson. The former 6th rounder by the A's out of Auburn, Hudson made it to the majors in 1999 and was a main cog in the A's "Moneyball" run. In fact, if you remember the game in the movie where Scott Hatteberg hits a pinch-hit homer, that game was started by Hudson. Hudson's production, especially in the AL, was extremely valuable. He posted a 3.30 ERA in six years with the A's, complete with a 3.63 FIP and 136 adjusted ERA.

However, after a 2004 campaign saw the A's miss the playoffs and once again presented with the option of losing a good player for nothing more than draft pick compensation, Billy Beane and company completed a deal with the Atlanta Braves. Going to the Braves was Hudson, who grew up cheering for the Braves of the early 90's. Before long, the Braves would sign him to an extension. The A's received a trio of players and got little in return. In fact, I imagine if Beane could do it again, he would have preferred draft pick compensation. Swingman Juan Cruz was a former star prospect in the Cubs system who they gave up on before 2004. After a solid year out of the Braves pen, he tried his luck in Oakland. Ugh. He would last one year and after bouncing around for awhile, finished his career after 2012. Charles Thomas was a no-name prospect who came out of nowhere to post a 2.0 fWAR season in 2004. After flaming out with the A's, his career fWAR fell to 1.4. He was out of baseball a few years later. Former James Madison left-hander Dan Meyer was expected to be the key to the trade. A top prospect, Meyer had appeared in two innings with the Braves in 2004. Injuries and bad pitching kept him from getting back to the majors until 2007. Two years later, he had his only significant run in the majors, pitching effectively in 71 games as a LOOGY for the Marlins. But after 13 forgetful games the following season, he never was able to get back to the majors and after failing to make the final Orioles roster last spring, Meyer's career was over.

Meanwhile, Hudson was a solid pitcher in his nine years with Atlanta. Though he only threw 188 innings or more five times after matching that total in his five full seasons with the A's, Hudson was often very good, though never the elite Cy Young contender he was with the A's. He posted a 3.56 ERA in his 244 games with the Braves, including his one relief appearance. His adjusted ERA+ of 116 is notably worse than his time with the A's and pitching in his prime didn't last nearly as long as the Braves expected. Nevertheless, his post-prime years, while shorten at times because of injury, were solid and Huddy gave the Braves everything he had.

Hudson was well known for any number of pitches that he would use to get an out. His velocity continued to head south, with his average falling under 90 mph toward his final years with the Braves. Still, he threw upwards to five pitches at different arm angles in efforts to keep hitters off-balance.

He took the ball in three postseason starts with the Braves. While the Astros beat him up in his NLDS Game 1 start in 2005, he left his Game 4 start with two runners on, nobody out, and an 8th inning lead of 6-1. Of course, Kyle Farnsworth took it from there and made it into a dumpster fire. The Braves would eventually lose in the 18th inning. Hudson would leave his NLDS Game 3 start in 2010 down 1-0, but in the bottom of the 8th, Eric Hinske hit what could have been a game-winning, series-tying two-run homer. A ninth inning that included four different Braves relievers and Brooks Conrad put an effective end to those hopes.

A memorable moment for Hudson occurred on April 30th last year. Facing the Nationals at home, Hudson doubled off Gio Gonzalez and later homered off Zach Duke while throwing seven quality innings. It would go down as his 200th win. I don't put much value into win-loss records, but as a fan of the game, anytime you hit a pitching milestone and add a homer, that's awesome sauce. Unfortunately, less than three months later, his season came to a close when Eric Young Jr. shattered his ankle. It was a horrifying end to his season and at the time, we wondered if he would ever pitch again. While he wouldn't pitch again for the Braves, he did head back to the west coast and is running away with Comeback Player of the Year honors.

While one can look at Hudson's time with the Braves and be disappointed he wasn't the same pitcher he was with the A's, his time in Atlanta was very productive. He helped to bridge the gap between The Streak (which ended in his second year with the Braves) and the new core of young Braves. His exit from the Braves, while maybe handled with a lack of finesse, was expected considered his injury and the perceived starting pitching depth. Hudson was a guy who was easy to root for, especially in today's age of filthy movement matched by ridiculous velocity. Hudson maximized all he had to get outs. To boot, he was, and still is, a remarkable human being whose charitable work is rightly lauded. You don't get the impression that Huddy's going through the motions for good PR. He's doing what he thinks is right.

After his comments hit twitter, Chipper Jones ripped him, but I saw a tweet in response that rings true. It went something like "I would rather my unborn son grew up to be like Tim Hudson than Chipper Jones." While a fan of Chipper on the field, you can't argue the sentiment. Huddy might be a Giant for a couple of years, but to me, he is defined as a guy with a tomahawk on his jersey and #15 on his back.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

A Look Back: 2010 Draft

Time to once again visit a recent draft.  While the 2011 and 2012 drafts have yielded just one major leaguer, the 2010 draft has given the Braves a  tremendous influx of talent, including 22% of their expected starting lineup next season.  Much like 2011, the Braves focused on college players, though not nearly to the same extent, even going so far as selecting a high school student with their first pick.  The Braves did not have a first round selection after losing it for signing Billy Wagner.  However, the Orioles' signing of Mike Gonzalez did give them a supplemental pick (35th overall) and an extra second round pick (53rd overall).

Again, I will go over the top ten with some extra picks highlighted if they interest me.  One pick outside the top ten will definitely hold a good deal of interest.

1. Matt Lipka, SS, McKinney High School (McKinney, TX)

Lipka was considered a great athlete with raw talent when the Braves made him their first pick of the draft.  Many were already unsure if Lipka would stay at shortstop, but his potential pop and speed made him a borderline first-round talent.  Lipka was a quick sign and played 52 games in 2010, almost all in the Gulf Coast League.  Production was very solid (.288/.344/.723, 21-of-24 SB) and Lipka quickly rose to full-season ball at 19.  In three years since, the last two at Lynchburg, Lipka's numbers have languished.  He was limited to just 51 games in 2012 due to injury, but he strikes out too often (19%) and doesn't walk enough (5%) to be much of a prospect.  He turns 22 in April and shifted to CF before 2012's season.  He still might become a good prospect, but appears limited to a ceiling as a nice utility player.

2. Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State University

Cunningham as a high-floor guy who scouts had a good idea about.  At his best, he would play decent enough defense and get on base.  At his worst, he would be a good enough fourth outfielder.  So far, that idea has remained.  After posting a .676 OPS at Rome after signing, Cunningham posted a .700 OPS while limited by injuries with the Hillcats in 2011.  Cunningham reached prospect status the following eason, slashing .309/.364/.403 with 24 steals while with Mississippi in 2012.  The season garnered him a spot on the 40-man roster to avoid exposing him to the Rule 5 draft.  His numbers fail considerable (outside of his OBP) during 2013 while playing 116 games in Gwinnett and going 2-for-8 in eight games with the big league club.  His defense seems good enough to play left field and he could easily be Reed Johnson-lite.  He will have a chance to impress for a spot on the bench next season.

2. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Western Oklahoma State Junior College

The Braves weren't positive what they had with Simmons.  Most teams preferred him at pitcher where his 98 mph fastball could thrive and possibly make him a stellar reliever.  However, Simmons wanted to be an everyday player and the Braves were willing to give that a shot.  Guess they figured they had a fallback option and Simmons could use that arm at shortstop.  After 62 games with Danville, Simmons entered prospect lists after a .311/.351/.408 season with the Hillcats in 2011.  MLB.com ranked him 62nd entering the 2012 season while Baseball America had him 92nd.  His numbers again improved, posting a .293/.372/.420 slash with Mississippi.  At the beginning of June, with Tyler Pastornicky struggling badly, Atlanta called up Simmons to take over.  Though he missed time with an injury, Simmons posted a .751 while playing other-worldly defense.  The following season, the other-worldly defense became defense unique to this universe, but his offensive production split.  Though he powered his way to 17 homers, he hit just .248 while on-basing .296.  For too long, he was the team's leadoff hitter.  Nevertheless, he took home the Platinum Award as the game's best defender and finished 14th in the MVP ballot.  With a better offensive year, Simmons will be recognized as one of the premier players at his position.

3. Joe Leonard, 3B, University of Pittsburgh

I did a Prospect of the Day look at Leonard in 2012.  With his profile (6'5"), there was expectations that Leonard's power would come and he would develop into a good option at third base, especially in a post-Chipper Jones world.  In college, Leonard was a guy who hit for a high average and played great defense.  It took some time before he would sign, but once he did, he appeared in 39 games, all but ten with Rome, and OPS'd .749.  So far, so good.  Since, he has posted OPS's of .689, .733, and .568 while playing year at all three spots along the way.  Things were so bad in Gwinnett last season that Leonard failed to homer.  By sheer accident, you assume he would homer.  He made some offensive improvements with Mississippi during 2012, but after an ugly season with Gwinnett last season, Leonard has definitely fell out of favor.  He remains a great defender at third, but without considerable offensive improvement, Leonard won't be getting to the bigs any time soon.

4. David Filak, RHP, State University of New York at Oneonta

Filak had some hope and he posted 22 solid innings with Danville after signing.  Control was bad (10 walks), but Filak pitched well enough to head to Rome in 2011.  The result was ugly 7.54 ERA in 45.1 ING with 33 walks to 32 strikeouts.  He wasn't much better after being demoted back to Danville.  After 101.2 innings with Rome in 2012, the Braves saw enough and cut Filak.  He spent last season with New Jersey of the Canadian-American Association, though he only got four ugly starts.  Maybe pitching isn't in his future.

5. Philip Gosselin, 2B, University of Virginia

The Goose was a lot like Cunningham.  You had a pretty good idea of what the floor was and had very limited expectations on a ceiling. And as such, we have seen what you expect to see.  He was the only 2010 draftee to play with Myrtle Beach after playing six games there in 2010.  He spent 2011 with the Hillcats after the Braves relocated their A+ squad.  It was probably his best full season as he hit .264/.324/.392.  Since then, he has played 187 games with Mississippi (.627 OPS) and 58 with the Gwinnett Braves last year, where he slashed .266/.308/.324.  He also had a week in the majors last year where he went 2-for-6.  Organizational guy, but no expectations that he will be a long-term major league talent.

6. Joey Terdoslavich, 3B, California State University-Long Beach

Joey T had plenty of offense, but there were concerns if he had professional-worthy defense at third base.  Turns out, he didn't and quickly was moved across the infield.  After looking solid in 2010 offensively, The Big Terd exploded all over Carolina League pitching in 2011 while slashing .286/.341/.526 with 52 2B's and 20 HR.  With Chipper's pending retirement and Leonard not exactly lighting up minor league pitching, the Braves decided to revisit third base while jumping Terdo all the way to Gwinnett to open 2012.  The results were ugly and not just defensively.  He OPS'd .515 over 53 games with 22 errors.  Atlanta realized their mistake and sent J-Terd to AA, where he posted a .852 OPS to close the year.  In 2013, he moved to the outfield and slashed .318/.359/.567 until July 3rd when the Braves came calling.  His switch-hitting bat and versatility kept him in Atlanta, where he was a regular bench option for Fredi Gonzalez.  He didn't hit particularly well, but got on base nicely while starting games at first and in left and right.  Terdy might never be a starter for a major league team, but he can have a nice career coming off the bench.  He's essentially Eric Hinske with less power.

7. Matt Suschak, RHP, University of Toledo

After 34 games over a year-and-a-half, the Braves saw all the needed from Suschak.  He displayed next to no country and when he did get the ball into the strikezone, it often left the park far too quickly.  He didn't play in 2012, but played for a pair of Frontier League teams last year, though he logged just three games of work.

8. Kurt Fleming, OF, St. Christopher's School (Richmond, VA)

Fleming was headed to Army to play baseball and football there, but chose to sign with the Braves instead and posted a .701 OPS at rookie ball after signing.  He spent 2011 with Danville, but on-based just .290.  Still, he opened 2012 with Rome, but sucked there and was back in Danville.  He didn't hit so well there either and was released after the season.  Not sure what he did last year, but recently, he enrolled with Clemson and will walk-on for the football team next fall.

9. David Rohm, OF, Fresno City College

The Braves went back college for the selection of Rohm, who split time with both rookie teams after signing, posting a .784 OPS.  He followed that up with a good year at Rome where Rohm slashed .289/.330/.432 with 47 EBH.  A lot of the wind that entered his sails quickly left after struggling through injuries and rotten play with Lynchburg in 2012.  After repeating the level with a season that mimics his year at Rome in 2011, Rohm will be headed up the ladder.  So far, he has displayed some gap power, but has hit just 12 homeruns professionally.  He doesn't walk, nor steal bases.  As a corner outfielder, his offense doesn't project well.

10. Matthew Lewis, RHP, University of California-Davis

He walked 26 in 21.2 ING coming out of the Danville pen in 2010.  He pitched three times the following season, but was quickly discarded.

Some other highlights from the rest of the draft...

-12th rounder Barrett Kleinknecht isn't going to hit for much, but he makes for a nice utility option.  The last two years while playing for Mississippi, he has logged time each year at all four infield positions, catcher, and pitcher.  In fact, he was utilized three times out of the pen just last year, giving up one hit (a home) while walking two and striking out four.

-Third Baseman Brandon Drury, selected in the 13th round, was traded last offseason in the Justin Upton deal.  He looked really good last year at South Bend, slashing .302/.362/.500 with 51 2B and 15 HR.  I miss him already.

-William Beckwith was a Random Prospect of the Day last year.  The 21st rounder seems to have cut back on December 22 after a season cut short by a DUI.  Also a former Random Prospect was Ian Marshall.  He spent last year with Southern Maryland in the independent Atlantic League.  Here is his RPOD profile.

-30th round selection Kenny Fleming is 8th rounder Kurt's older brother.  He lasted a season less than his brother did.

-Finally, there is 23rd round selection Evan Gattis from the University of Texas-Permian Basin.  The story is fairly old at this point, but because of addiction issues, Gattis's career took a significant detour before he finally was drafted and signed with the Braves.  After slugging an un-Gattis-like .387 in 60 games with Danville in 2010, Gattis destroyed SALLY pitching in 2011 to the tune of .322/.386/.601 and 22 HR, though he was limited by injuries.  The following year, again, he dealt with a few injuries, but when he played, he conquered both Lynchburg and Mississippi, OPSing .995 for the year.

After a run in winter league baseball that saddled him with the El Oso Blanco nickname, Gattis headed to spring training with a lot of buzz and was truly excellent early in the season with notable homeruns off Roy Halladay and Stephen Strasburg.  The rest of the year was not as good and he was used way too much in LF in order to get his bat into the lineup.  That won't be a concern this year after Brian McCann signed with the Yankees.  Gattis was the 24th player selected by the Braves in June of 2010.  Only nine of the 23 picked before him are still in the organization.  The unlikely success of Gattis really does test logic.

Friday, August 3, 2012

The Best (and Worst) of July

Atlanta finished July by tying their season best of seven consecutive wins.  That streak allowed them to close the book on July with a season-best 18-8 record.  Sadly, the Nats were only one game worse than that record so Atlanta didn't gain much on the Nationals for the month, though they were able to open a lead in the second Wild Card spot.  Not to spoil anyone's fun, but the Cardinals have been one of the most unluckiest teams up to this point so...don't be surprised to see them make another run.

Regardless, it's time to hand out some Walk-Off Walk awards for July.  Course, I'm three days late, but internet issues led to that.

Top Rookie of the Month - N/A - With the injury to Andrelton Simmons and the demotion of Randall Delgado, pickens were slim here.  

Worst Pitcher of the Month - Jair Jurrjens - It was difficult for anyone to even compete in this category because, by large, success was experienced by the majority of the staff last month.  However, one guy truly stuck out like a sore thumb.  Jurrjens has, outside of a couple of outings, been horrible this season and July was more of the same for him.  A K/9 rate of 3.38, a FIP over 5.00, and a lost rotation spot.  That is how you see your career with the Braves head south in a hurry. 

Dishonorable Mentions - Tommy Hanson, Anthony Varvaro

Worst Position Player of the Month - Dan Uggla - What can you say about Uggla's struggles except that every time he has a hit, I am reminded of a line out of Little Big League.  "Kid, don't you think there's a problem when you get that excited over a seeing-eye single?"  Right now, it's like that with Uggla.  He's still playing pretty solid defense, especially for him, and is doing everything you ask from a baseball player except hit the ball.  Last month, his slash line was pretty brutal.  .115/.281/.179.  All you can say is "cool, he's walking."  Now, recently, Uggla has started to turn things around a bit.  Hope it continues.


Dishonorable Mentions - Paul Janish, Eric Hinske

Best Pitcher of the Month - Ben Sheets - I hate giving this title to relievers and while Craig Kimbrel deserved back-to-back months as Best Pitcher, I am giving this to Sheets.  Over three starts and 18 innings, Sheets gave up just one run.  He was lucky over the month with over 94% LOB rate, but he was also extremely successful with a 3 K/BB rate.  Sheets was a big second-half pick-up for Atlanta and the Braves need him to continue for their season to be as successful as they would like.  So far, so good.

Honorable Mentions - Craig Kimbrel, Mike Minor

Best Position Player of the Month - Brian McCann - A tough choice because Chipper Jones was superb over July as well.  McCann was my choice last month for worst position player, but he turned it around and led the Braves in just about every offensive power-related category.  9 HR, four more than Jason Heyward.  21 RBI, 2 more than Freddie Freeman.  .296/.354/.704 with a .408 ISO and .434wOBA.  There are few catchers that can do that over a month and McCann has done it several times over his career.  Before July, I spoke several times of how important McCann and Freeman were to the Braves' hopes of getting to October, let alone catching the Nats.  Both had tremendous July's to go with Chipper's effort.  Last month's choice for this category was Heyward and he was solid in July, but not nearly to the level of the other three.

Honorable Mentions - Chipper Jones, Freddie Freeman

Saturday, July 7, 2012

The Myth of Matt

When Atlanta allowed Matt Diaz to leave following the 2010 season, I had some mixed feelings.  I had grown to be quite fond of the guy we at Chopnation had nicknamed Magellan for his often strange ways of tracking down a flyball to left.  That said, for the money that Diaz could command, the results needed to be higher than Diaz had been able to muster in 2010 when he hit just .250 with a .319 wOBA and 0.5 WAR.  Atlanta rightfully non-tendered him, jettisoning him the same way they did Kelly Johnson.  Matty had some good years with the Braves, including three seasons of 2.0 WAR or better, and rightfully built a reputation as a left-handed pitching masher, but he had been paid $2.55M in 2010 and in arbitration, chances are he would have gotten a raise despite a bad season.

Diaz went on to sign with the Pirates for 2 years and $4M.  Good for him. 

And then, Frank Wren screwed me and brought him back in a trade last August 31st for some unGodly reason.  The Pirates chipped in some cash and the Braves would send pitcher Eliecer Cardenas to the Pirates a month later.  For what it's worth, Cardenas hasn't played this year because of injuries and isn't really a prospect to get too upset about losing. 

However, with Diaz back in the fold, the Braves had their left-handed pitching masher.  Yay!  Except, one thing.  Diaz wasn't hitting lefties with authority.  I mean, he hit .295 against them last year and while that is nice, only seven of his 32 hits went for extra bases.  A .692 OPS with no speed/defense does not make for a good platoon partner.  The previous year, he had hit .273 with an .830 OPS against lefties.  When you only have one skill that sets you apart from your co-workers, you better deliver that skill and Diaz was failing to do so last year.  Still, Wren got him because I guess (hope?) that John Schuerholtz told him about how Diaz was such a find all those years ago. 

Diaz was given the opportunity to redeem himself this year and wouldn't ya know it...he's not.  He's hitting .275 with a .754 OPS against lefties.  That's all well and good and everything, but often, the only reason he finds himself in the lineup is because the guy on the mound has the nerve to throw with his left arm.  Diaz is supposed to punish that guy.  A .754 OPS ain't cutting it. 

Having built a reputation, it's sometimes hard to shed that reputation whether it's bad or good.  Fans on facebook, Yahoo, DOB's blog, Atlantabraves.com, and a few mental hospitals in the greater Atlanta area still swear that Diaz destroys lefties.  He crushes them!  He pulverizes the shit out of them!  He grinds up their bones! 

But the results...they just aren't there.  And Atlanta is suffering.  Diaz against righties is a sad, depressing tale full of disappointment so the only saving grace is that he can destroy those tough lefties.  So far this season, Diaz is 3 of 28 against righties.  The dirty little secret is that you can try to protect Diaz, but eventually, he will face a righty and he's simply not suited to take on that task.  It's like Eric Hinske against lefties.  If you could bring both of them into a lab and mold them together, you might have a crappy bench player, but at least you wouldn't be holding up two spots on the bench for guys who supposedly have the exact same skill (severe platoon splits in their favor), but aren't producing.

Atlanta's bench has been a monumental failure this season and bringing back Diaz last year is looking like a mistake on Wren's behalf.  Something needs to be done about the black hole of WilDiSke.  Of the three, only Hinske can even say he has produced in the last three seasons.  Start with Diaz and Wilson and go from there, Frank.  Your team needs your wheeling and dealin.' 

Please, Frank.  You're our only hope.