Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:

• Stay Healthy  
• Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).

Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers

• Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
• *Arodys Vizcaino
• Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
• Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
• Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
• Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
• Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.

Current Minor Leaguers

• *Manny Banuelos
• *Josh Outman
• Brandon Beachy - 8 innings in MLB since with 7.88 ERA
• Kris Medlen - 82 innings in MLB since with 5.99 ERA, but had a dominant outing with the Florida Fire Frogs a few days back.
• Jonny Venters - 3 TJ surgeries (maybe 4?) no MLB innings since 1st surgery
• *Andrew McKirahan
• *Jesse Biddle
• *Max Fried
• *AJ Minter
• Brady Feigl- traded, pitching well in High-A for Texas
• *Jacob Lindgren
• Chris Withrow - released mysteriously, but hasn’t made it back to field. 37.2 innings of decent relief.
• Shae Simmons - briefly pitched in Atlanta last year, traded.
• *Daniel Winkler
• David Peterson - Had TJ surgery in 2013, has had relative success in the Braves minor league system.

Retired Major Leaguers

• Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
• Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.

Not currently affiliated with any team

• Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
• *Paco Rodriguez
• Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues

Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

2016 Player Reviews: Vizcaino, Whalen, Winkler, Wisler, Withrow

I started this series on October 3 and it has finally reached its conclusion. Welcome to the final edition of 2016 Player Reviews, brought to you by stubbornness and procrastination. I was going to do two more posts, but remembered that the Braves did me a solid by dropping Ryan Weber so I only had five players left to review and decided to supersize things so I can move on to other pressing concerns. Thanks to everyone for reading and sharing on social media along the way.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tell of two seasons for Vizzy. After taking over as the full-time closer following a brief time-share with Jason Grilli, Vizcaino was absolutely lights-out through 34 games. In 32.2 innings, he struck out 45 compared to 15 walks. While the Braves rarely needed a prototypical closer in the first half, Vizzy nailed down ten saves along the way. But, over his next five games, he surrendered eight runs (five earned) and walked five compared to just two strikeouts. He hit the DL with an oblique strain after being used in a blowout against the Rockies in which his heater averaged a season-low 91.7 mph. A month later, he returned, but was ineffective over four games before being placed back on the DL with shoulder inflammation. The Braves had hoped he would return in September, but he never made it back.

2017 Projection: The expectation is that Vizcaino will be good-to-go by spring training after taking the winter off. If Vizzy comes back ready to fly, it'll be interesting to see what version of Vizzy we receive. Obviously, the injuries were an issue, but his groundball rate shot up 19% last year from where it was in 2015. Was it better control that made his fastball induce a higher frequency of grounders? Was it the Roger McDowell-effect? It'll be something to watch in 2017 provided Vizcaino returns to form and, if he does, the Braves will have yet another weapon in a pen that is shaping up to be a strength for the Atlanta Braves.

Robert Whalen, RHP, 23 years-old

2016 Review: It was a bit surprising to see Whalen ascend to the big leagues in 2016. It's not that he wasn't a prospect, but he carried just a fringy prospect grade in a system filled with higher-end prospects and when 2016 began, Whalen had yet to throw a pitch above A-ball. The Braves were able to uncover some strikeout potential that he hadn't shown since rookie ball in 2013 and Whalen K'd 22.2% of Southern League batters that he faced over 18 starts. He also carried a 3.19 FIP while doing it. He received a promotion to Gwinnett, where he looked brilliant over a trio of starts. In August, he joined the big league club. He had a pair of quality starts mixed in, but also looked a good deal like a rookie pitcher. His season came to a close on August 25 with shoulder fatigue. He had thrown a total of 144.2 innings - nearly 50 innings more than the previous season when he tossed a career-best 96.2 innings. It should also be noted that Whalen had offseason surgery on both of his knees last winter, which allowed him to pitch without pain for the first time in a few years.

2017 Projection: Whalen won't stand out compared to some of the other prospects the Braves throw at you. He has below-average velocity and works off his four-seamer while utilizing his slider against lefties and his sinker versus righties. He also has a change-up and curveball. Whalen definitely punched his ticket for an extended look this spring and might have some value as a long reliever who can be tough on righties with a sinker that is both difficult to connect on and elevate when you do. However, I see him heading back to a very deep Gwinnett pitching staff where he can try to show the Braves (and potential suitors) that his success in 2016 was a sign of bigger and better things to come for the former Mets farmhand.

Daniel Winkler, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: In a first half of low points for the Braves, few were more depressing than what happened on an April afternoon when Winkler, on a 1-2 count, fractured his elbow on a pitch to the Cardinals' Randal Grichuk. Winkler, who had missed most of 2015 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, had been an early season bright spot for the Braves. He had allowed just one of the eight batters he had faced to reach and that came on a walk. He also had four K's and was throwing his 92 mph fastball, 88 mph cutter, and 81 mph slider with confidence. For a brief moment, it looked like he might be a hidden gem in 2016.

2017 Projection: If there was any measure of good news related to Winkler's injury, he (and Braves fans) took solace in the fact that there was no ligament damage. He's unlikely to pitch this winter, but should be on schedule to try again this spring to get his major league career going. He is still a Rule 5 player who will have to be kept to begin the year or waived and offered back to the Rockies. At this point, we know he has an electric arm, but there have been questions about his pitching motion to begin with. He'll be a good story this spring if he's able to recapture his previous form.

From the Fort Bragg luncheon. By Sgt. anthony hewitt
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Matt Wisler, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: There was a lot of hope attached to Wisler after he finished 2015 with a 2.21 ERA and 26 strikeouts over his final 36.2 innings. He had a few rough starts early on, but finished this May with a 3.16 ERA and 48 K's over his first 68.1 innings. However, the wheels came off after that. Over his next ten starts, he had a 7.71 ERA before a demotion to Gwinnett took Wisler out of the picture. After four starts in the minors, Wisler was back in the majors to finish the season and we saw Good Wisler (career-high 10 K's against the Padres) and Bad Wisler (six runs given up in his next start).

2017 Projection: So far, Wisler has not shown the ability to command the strikezone and fool hitters. While he won't walk many batters, he's getting 1.5% less swinging strikes than the average. He's also a shade below-average in first-pitch strikes. This is despite inducing more swings than average and even a bit more contact than average. He still has a lot of potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm, but the reason the Braves signed Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey while bringing back Josh Collmenter is because Wisler and others have yet to prove that they belong in the majors. He'll get another shot in 2017 to shine, but things won't be any easier. Not only is there is a tougher road to securing a spot, but the competition is getting even more fierce with Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims joining the fray.

Chris Withrow, RHP, 28 years-old

2016 Review: After missing most of the last two seasons on the shelf, Chris Withrow was glad just to be back on the mound. The plus side was that, when combined with his dozen games in the minors, Withrow pitched 58 times and logged 48.2 innings of action. However, his arm wasn't nearly as electric as it was with the Dodgers when he first got to the bigs in 2013. His four-seamer was down 2 mph from when he was a top prospect and the results were a bit lacking (4.90 FIP/4.99 xFIP versus 3.57 FIP/3.03 xFIP in 2013).

2017 Projection: Unlike many of the lively arms the Braves have, Withrow doesn't have age on his side. On April Fool's Day, 2017, he'll turn 28 years-old. To put that into perspective, remember that Julio Teheran won't turn 26 until the end of January. There's a lot to like with Withrow, but a K% that was just  17.7% (down from over 30%) is not one of them. As I've said many times during this rundown of returning Braves, Withrow is in the mix. He used his final option this year, though, so how attached the Braves are to him will be tested if he struggles next spring.

Thanks for coming along for this ride.

Braves Monday Roundup - Fort Bragg, Sims, Trades

Welcome to the return of the Monday Roundup. Haven't been able to do this in a couple of weeks, but glad to be getting back into my regular posting schedule. For returnee fans, I plan to post the rest of my Best/Worst Draft series over the next few days leading up to the MLB Draft on Thursday. I hope you guys are enjoying the series - I know I enjoy writing about it. Once it's completed, I will look for another series of posts to focus on. I'm thinking of looking at who the Braves could trade and what kind of package they might seek. After all, the Braves will likely be busy on that front.

In the meantime, here are 5 stories you may have missed...

By Fish Cop. (Blashfield Sign Company) [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons

Fort Bragg's "Pop-Up Stadium" Nearly Completion
-One of the most interesting things related to the Braves during this lost season will come next month when they play host to the Miami Marlins at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Crews are putting the final touches on the stadium, including installing bleachers, fencing, a broadcast booth for ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, and more. The "pop-up stadium" appears to be an experiment of sorts for baseball as they try to host a game five months after announcing the venture. You have to believe if the event is a success - and it has every reason to be - MLB will continue to attempt similar events. While much of the stadium will be removed after the game, the field will be donated to Fort Bragg, who hope to expand the location into a "larger athletic complex."

Sims Gets Crushed
-After Shae Simmons threw a scoreless inning to open Sunday's tilt with Durham, Gwinnett went with regular starter Lucas Sims. The results were awful. Sims went just 2.2 innings in the loss as he struggled greatly with his control, walking six batters and throwing a wild pitch. He also yielded a pair of homeruns when he did find the strikezone. Sims has given up six or more runs in four of his last seven games for Gwinnett. Suffice it to say, it's a learning experience for Sims, who turned just 22 last month and opened the year with three starts in Double-A. While no one should get too disappointed with Sims so far, it's a sign that one of Atlanta's star prospects is not close to being ready for prime time.

Mock Draft Brings in Number of Bats
-Tomahawk Take's Benjamin Chase was tasked with the role of playing the Braves General Manager at minorleagueball.com's mock draft. Of the six players drafted, Chase took four bats - which would be a stark change from last year's pitching shopping spree. It will be interesting to see if something like that happens. Clearly, the Braves need more offense in the system, but I'm of the belief that they won't make an effort to go bat or arm at any point in the draft. Instead, they will focus on best player available. That might be a bat like Kyle Lewis at #3 as it was for Chase. Or it might be an arm like Jason Groome or Riley Pint. Regardless of which way they go with that pick or any pick after it, I am convinced Atlanta will only go with the player that is on top of their Big Board at that time.

Jon Heyman: "Everyone can be had"
-In his recent Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman mentioned a variety of Braves' notes, many with a a common theme - trades. According to Heyman, "a few teams have checked in on Nick Markakis," which I wrote about recently with the hope that - if true - Atlanta jumps on a possible trade. Heyman also mentioned Kelly Johnson and Alexi Ogando as possible trade targets, though neither have played well this year and have shown little sign of turning the corner. 2016 was supposed to be bad for the Braves, but the under-performance of so many veterans who appeared likely to attract trade interest hasn't helped.

Teheran Might be a Fit for the Red Sox
-The Braves have little reason to trade Julio Teheran. He's in just year 3 of a 6-year, $32.4M contract extension that also has a very manageable $12M club option for 2020. He's an effective pitcher who could be on his way to a 3 WAR season regardless of what his win-loss record may say. It's for all of those reasons that Teheran makes for such an attractive option for many teams in need of a dependable cog to add to their rotation. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe thinks the Red Sox could be one of those teams, especially with their collection of major-league ready (or nearly ready) talent. Cafardo mentions Blake Swihart, though that took a hit when Swihart hurt his left ankle playing left field (because reasons). Over 383 PA in the majors, Swihart has hit .271/.328/.386 with the Sox and was a Top 20 prospect heading into 2015. A switch-hitting option, Swihart definitely could help the Braves in terms of giving them a catcher-of-the-future option in the majors. Another name might be a better fit, though, and that's Andrew Benintendi. The 7th overall pick of the 2015 draft, Benintendi is already in Double-A, though his numbers have taken a bit of a fall through a couple dozen games there. In 458 PA since joining the Sox organization, Benintendi has a .206 ISO. A lefty masher who still might have room to grow, the Braves would be hard pressed to refuse an offer centering around Benintendi.

Bonus Link - Leudys Baez Reviewed
-A few weeks ago, I pointed you to a review on Mike Soroka by notesfromthesally.com. Over the weekend, John Calvagno posted another review on a current Rome Brave in Leudys Baez. The article quickly stands out as Calvagno says, "He (Baez) has some of the loudest tools in the league and no one is talking about him." Give the link a read.

Trivia Question
-The last time I did this, I asked, "In the expansion era (1961-to-present), and excluding the streak-shortened 1981, what three teams have tied for the fewest players on the team to hit at least one homerun?" No one ventured a guess even though I gave a hint. 10 players is the answer and it has been accomplished three times by the Cubs in 1967, the Royals in 1972, and the New York Mets in 1980. With Brandon Snyder's homer Sunday, the Braves reached ten. Here's today's trivia question. Freddie Freeman now has six intentional walks. What is the franchise record for walks in a single season? If you know the answer, send me a tweet.

Birthdays
Happy birthday today to Tony Graffanio, who began his 13-year major league career with the Braves in 1996 and turns 44 today. Wednesday is Pete Orr's 37th birthday. The Canadian utility guy last played in the majors in 2013 and is currently a free agent. On Thursday, Joel De La Cruz, who has been promoted to the majors twice and never used, turns 27. Not-a-Brave Zoilo Almonte turns 27 on June 10 (Friday). Atlanta had hoped Almonte would earn a platoon job last spring, but he ultimately was cut and didn't play organized ball again until last winter. He's currently doing well in the Mexican League. Also celebrating their birthday Friday will be Jeff Bennett (36 years-old), who I profiled awhile back. Rick Camp would have been 63 on Friday as well. Odalis Perez turns 38 on Saturday while Ryan Klesko celebrates his 45th birthday on Sunday.

Shameless Plugs 
Worst 5 Drafts Since 2000 - #4 ...The fourth worst draft might be one of the worst drafts in just talent for the Braves since the draft's inception. It was that ugly.

Transaction Tuesday: Thayer, Shae, Parsons, McCreery ...Weekly recap of the minor league moves. Analysis includes the recent addition of Dale Thayer, Shae Simmons' setback, Wes Parsons inability to stay healthy, and Adam McCreery getting his first taste of minor league ball as a Brave.

Braves Throw Away the Grill(i) ...Atlanta deals away Jason Grilli as they continue to add potential pieces for the future.

By EricEnfermero (Own work)
[CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Braves Shift Tyrell to the Pen ...Last week, the Braves made the choice to move right-hander Tyrell Jenkins out of the rotation and into the bullpen. In my article, I looked at how the move could mimic a similar move to the pen in 2010 for Jonny Venters.

Freddie Freeman's Power Numbers are Fine ...Where does Freeman rank among power hitters in the game and at his position? Certainly not with the elite, but his numbers are better than many give him credit for.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack ...Some of the topics discussed include Mallex Smith's odd stolen base success rate, Tyler Flowers' hard-hit rate, and Arodys Vizcaino's heat.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack ...Sean Newcomb might be turning the corner and so might Braxton Davidson. See the column for more.

Best 5 Drafts Since 2000 - #4 ...As aggressive as the Braves were in last year's draft, my ranking of the draft in context with every draft since 2000 might be more aggressive.

Worst 5 Drafts Since 2000 - #3 ...Three years ago, the Braves struck out on nearly every pick. Let's hope for better luck Thursday as you review how it all went wrong in 2013.

Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter.

Braves Throw Away the Grill(i)

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Tuesday's trade of Jason Grilli is reminiscent of the trade of Jhoulys Chacin. The Braves appear to get little out of the trade outside of opening a spot on the 25-man roster from a veteran. The promising results from Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez made the Chacin trade a plus for Atlanta. Grilli's immediate replacement is Ryan Weber. That's not quite as exciting.

Signing Grilli was a bit of a surprise in the offseason of 2014-15. After an All-Star campaign in 2013, Grilli had lost his closer job the following year with the Pirates before being pushed to the Angels to end the season. Like Jim Johnson, Grilli was a former closer who could bring the bullpen depth. Unlike the one-year "show me" offer Johnson accepted, Grilli was more desired by the Braves and received at least $8M in guaranteed salary out of the deal with an addition $2.75 million to be earned in 2017 if his option was exercised. Right before his first season with the Braves, Grilli was named closer in the wake of Craig Kimbrel's trade to the Padres.

He was superb from there with a 4.5 K/BB rate over 33.2 innings and 24 saves. It was All-Star-quality first half right up until he hurt his Achilles running toward first base to field a throw on a grounder. It ended his 2015 season and really ended Grilli's run as a top closer. A late start this spring didn't keep him from joining the major league roster, but he blew a save on opening day and would be dinged up for runs on five of his nine April outings. From there, he lost his big innings appointment and rarely worked with a close lead. The fact that the Braves were going with Bud Norris over Grilli is all you need to know.

The trade saved very little in terms of salary as the Blue Jays will merely cover a pro-rated portion of a major league minimum. The Braves received right-hand pitcher Sean Ratcliffe out of the deal. A native to Canada, Ratcliffe was an 18th rounder in 2013 who was known more as a prep catcher than a pitcher. The move to full-time pitcher was difficult on Ratcliffe as he showed little control in two stints in the Gulf Coast League (21 BB to 15 K over 22.1 ING). Hard work led to some clear improvements in 2015. Over 40 innings, he walked just 16 and struck out 30. Over his last eight games, he walked just two in 17.1 innings.

The reason the Jays were in love with his arm was that he can throw hard (mid-90's) with a slider that could be a plus pitch someday. It's a long road to getting a productive arm, but some scout probably liked his potential. A pitcher with his profile has a chance for big strikeout numbers, but that comes with the ability to throw strikes early-and-often in counts. Ratcliffe is not there, yet.

If this trade seems "meh," it's because it is. The Braves received little out of this trade except a live arm with three years of professional experience and no games at full-season A-ball. With that in mind, the Braves probably felt that any offer for Grilli was "good enough." Ratcliffe, like Adam McCreery, gives the Braves another arm with a chance. That's about it.

Transaction Tuesday: Thayer, Shae, Parsons, McCreery

These moves cover May 24 to May 30. Check out the previous week's recap.

Gwinnett Braves
Signed: Dale Thayer...For three years, Thayer was an above-average reliever for the Padres, but his numbers fell off the map last year. This year, he appeared in seven ugly games with Tulsa in the Double-A Texas League. Worth a shot, but Thayer is in his age-35 year and unlikely to find much more success during his professional career.

Promoted (from CAR): Stephen Gaylor...A regular in this column, Gaylor picks up a lot of singles and not much else. In 34 games over a trio of minor league stops this year, he's on-based .360 wth 9 steals. He is a fill-in option around the minor league system as needed.

Promoted (from DAN): Jose Ramirez...His demotion to the taxi squad was simply to give him some rest after a 2.2 inning, 46-pitch outing on the 20th. He's turned the corner a bit over his last nine games for Gwinnett with 11.1 inning, one run allowed, and 14 K's. However, his control has been an issue.

Promoted (from DAN): Braeden Schlehuber...Taxi squad move. Nothing more, nothing less.

Optioned: Dario Alvarez...I talked about Alvarez when he was claimed off waivers.

Optioned: Casey Kelly...In three outings this year in the bigs, Kelly has taken it on the chin as a fill-in/long relief option. He's allowed many of the 56 batters he's faced on the year to reach, but he's also done nothing to hurt his chances to stick around. His numbers with Gwinnett have been a mixed bag to this point.

Outrighted: Joel De La Cruz...Twice this season, De La Cruz has been called up to the bigs. Twice, he's been outrighted off the major league roster after never being used in the majors. The righty's numbers this year have not really earned a promotion, but it's still a bit odd to bring up a guy twice and never use him to at least get him a game in the bigs under his umbrella.

Outrighted: Reid Brignac...A long time ago, Brignac was an interesting option. His ability to play multiple positions has kept him in the bigs for nine straight years, but because he has no bat, he has done played more than 46 games in the majors since 2012. This season's 13-game cameo did little to keep Brignac in the majors.

Rehab: Jim Johnson...The Braves chose to not expedite Johnson's arrival in the bigs after trading Jason Grilli Tuesday. Friday looks like his target game. In three rehab outings (twice with Gwinnett), Johnson has thrown three scoreless innings with 3 hits allowed and 3 K's.

DL'd: David Peterson...An 8th rounder in 2012, Peterson had a solid 2015 after opening the year in Carolina and ending the season in Gwinnett. 2016 has not been nearly as positive, though. In 15 games with Gwinnett, Peterson has been hit hard and often (9.17 ERA, 1.5 HR/9) and struggled with his usually pinpoint control (7.1 BB/9 vs. 2 BB/9 last two years). Maybe injury has played a role? Regardless, Peterson is not much of a prospect.

Paternity List: Sean Kazmar...Congrats to Kazmar, who has played 300 games with Gwinnett over the last four years. The nearly 32 year-old appeared in the majors 19 times during 2008 for San Diego and has not been able to get back since.

Mississippi Braves
Rehab: Shae Simmons...The reliever landed with Mississippi seeking his fourth game back as he returns from Tommy John surgery, but some forearm tightness set him back.

Demoted from GWI: Brandon Cunniff...A big find out of the independent leagues, Cuniff pitched 39 times in the majors last year. However, after being a non-factor this spring, he has struggled greatly this year. He's never had great control, but he was always able to get enough K's to carry a 2+ K/BB rate. This year, it was even with Gwinnett (13 of each) in 20.2 innings. Maybe a demotion will be a catalyst for him. In his first game, he gave up a hit and walked one while striking out 4 in two frames.

Carolina Mudcats
Promoted from ROME: Taylor Lewis...A ninth rounder last June, Lewis had a lot of K's, but his numbers weren't overwhelming this year with Rome. Still, the 22 year-old was promoted and in his first two games, he's K'd three in 3.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two baserunners.

Demoted from MIS: Michael O'Neal...A fill-in option for Mississippi, O'Neal returns to Carolina where he has thrown 10 innings with this season. O'Neal spent two years in the Frontier League after being undrafted out of Auburn.

DL'd: Wes Parsons...For while, Parsons looked like the next Brandon Beachy. Undrafted out of a small school, Parsons had a 4.8 K/BB rate over 109.2 innings with Rome in 2013. Unfortunately, since drawing some prospect coverage, Parsons has both struggled when on the mound and struggled to even stay on the mound. He had appeared in eleven games with Carolina so far this year, including 3 starts, and had been hit around a good deal.

Rome Braves
Promoted from DAN: Adam McCreery...Acquired in the Jhoulys Chacin trade, McCreery finally made his 2016 debut with two innings out of the Rome bullpen. He struck out three and walked one. As I mentioned in my previous column about the trade, McCreery has some potential as a left-hand specialist, but with very little upside.

Released: Matt Tellor...It was only a matter of time for Tellor. A tenth rounder in 2014, Tellor had hit .224/.271/.331 as a professional over 607 PA with 170 K's. Limited to only first base, he needed to show a bat - but it never came.

Danville Braves
Demoted from CAR: Zach Quintana...Acquired for Kyle Wren last offseason, Quintana was a nice swingman with Rome last year, but has struggled with Carolina this year. He surrendered just one homer in 2015 and has given up 5 this year.

Demoted to DAN and re-promoted to GWI and re-demoted to DAN: Kanekoa Texeira...Taxi squad central.

GCL Braves
No moves.

DSL Braves
No moves.

Braves Cut Three More Relievers

I went over this a little in today's 5 for Monday post at my other site. Give it a read as it also touches on the rotation (especially Jhoulys Chacin), spring training stats, the 2016 draft, the road back for Jason Grilli and Mike Foltynewicz, and others odds and ends.

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Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Braves continued their quick and decisive series of cuts on Monday morning, adding Matt Marksberry and Chris Withrow to the list of arms that were previously in the running, but now have "just died and went back down to the minors." Southpaw Hunter Cervenka joined the duo, though he was "reassigned" rather than optioned because he wasn't on the 40-man roster.

Marksberry and Withrow were both surprising cuts, especially at this point. As a favorite in the battle to join the Braves coming out of camp, Marksberry had moments of glory before a recent bad game. Marksberry has some qualities that make him an attractive member of any bullpen, but he's hurt by one thing right now - he has options. The Braves want to maintain a high level of depth and keeping a LOOGY at AAA rather than losing a player without options was an easier sell for the Braves.

Withrow was even more shocking because many, including me, had him pegged as a key member of the 2016 bullpen. Over 56 innings in the majors, Withrow has a 3.44 xFIP, 3.08 SIERA, and 93 cFIP - which all give the impression that he's a capable major league option when healthy. The Braves may have not seen the level of control they want  from the righty, though to option him this quickly is still curious. Again, much like Marksberry, Withrow has options (actually just one) whereas players like Jose Ramirez don't.

Speaking of Ramirez, his chances of making this roster only improve. The same can be said for Rule 5 additions like Evan Rutckyj and Daniel Winkler, along with non-roster invitees Alex Torres, Carlos Torres, and Alexi Ogando. However, there is still much that is left to be done because we only know that Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson will be in the mix. If he suffers no setbacks, Jason Grilli will be there as well. That doesn't even take into account Ian Krol, who was expected to be a player in the bullpen, but might go the way of Withrow and head to Gwinnett to start 2016. Oh, and we should also mention the possibility of a long-relief arm such as Williams Perez or Ryan Weber being shifted to the bullpen to provide insurance for the rotation, though I'd think Winkler could be included in that mix as well.

The Braves are being proactive here, which puts the pressure on those players remaining in the picture to produce. We've seen what happens when they don't.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith

The Braves were active in John Hart's season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe
Gosselin for Touki
KJ/Uribe for Whalen/Gant

The Trade
As part of a three-team trade, Braves trade Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza, Alex Wood, and cash to the Dodgers for Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez, Zachary Bird, and a 2016 draft choice (35th overall, but subject to change) from the Marlins, who also sent Mat Latos and Mike Morse to the Dodgers for Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham, and Kevin Guzman. Yep, profiled that trade.

The Rationale

Scott Cunningham | Getty Images

Crushes die hard. Last winter, as Olivera worked out for a number of ballclubs, the Braves were a surprise team that was looking to invest big on the Cuban import. A .323/.407/.505 hitter in Cuba, Olivera was considered one of the best hitters left on the island before his defection. He had a silver medal in the Olympics and was part of the disappointing Cuban World Baseball Classic squad in 2009 that finished sixth.

The Braves pursued Olivera hard, but their offer wasn't close to the Dodgers' $62.5M offer over six years ($28M was a signing bonus). Olivera had some medical issues (blood disorder before his defection and a minor UCL tear), but was still considered a stout offensive player.

Like I said...old crushes die hard. The Braves wanted Olivera and considered him a future cog in their lineup. They appeared willing to make it happen and paid a steep price. Jose Peraza was the Braves' top prospect heading into 2015. His game had actually regressed since his 2013 season with Lynchburg. His walks percentage was cut in half and with no power to speak of, he was completely dependent on his bat control to get on base so that he could use his best weapon - his speed. But even his stolen base numbers had declined from 64 and 60 the previous two years to 36 in 2015. Injuries were a factor. The Braves saw a guy who had not advanced and with Jace Peterson a stopgap at second and Andrelton Simmons a fixture at short (right?), Peraza was considered a guy who while useful, was maybe not the impact prospect many had felt he was.

Alex Wood had been very good since arriving in the majors in 2013, but there were some concerns. His fastball velocity had declined (though he never brought much heat). His herky-jerky motion had always been a worry and his strikeouts had fell from nearly a quarter of all batters in 2014 to 18% at the time of the trade. His WHIP had reached 1.41. With a plethora of pitching prospects on the way, the Braves saw Wood as expendable.

The Dodgers also saw Olivera as expendable...at least when it came to winning a title with their bloated roster in 2015. With Justin Turner exceeding all expectations at third base and Corey Seager on the way (not to mention adding Peraza in this deal), the well-sought after Olivera felt more like an extra piece than one that would be a six-year starter. They may have also grew quickly tired of Olivera's hamstring and other concerns that kept him from making his debut with the Dodgers. Furthermore, they needed pitchers. While they had two of the top starters in baseball and a surprisingly durable Brett Anderson, the rest of the staff was unknown in the wake of Brandon McCarthy's early-season injury and Brandon Beachy's quick flameout shortly before the deadline. Adding both Wood and Latos solidified the staff while getting Johnson and Avilan was supposed to make the bullpen deeper. Johnson had been a great add for the Braves and had even filled in as closer due to Jason Grilli's injury, but his return to closer was short-lived. Avilan had went from surprising in 2012 to "how's he succeeding?" in 2013 to "ugh, he actually sucks" in 2014. He was closer to the better Avilan in 2015, but was prone to blow it and blow it big.

Back to Atlanta - they added a pair of pitchers in this deal with Bird and Paco. The latter would eventually need to go under the knife and we will have to wait until 2017 to see him pitch for the Braves. Good thing, too, because that 2017 team is going to be awesome (or so I hear). Bird is an athletic righty who is still raw. He's struggled with control, but has flashed strikeout potential.

Oh, yeah, the Marlins were in this deal. They shed some salary, got a few prospects, and gave the Braves a draft choice. Yay.

I almost forgot about Arroyo. I recently talked about how he came to the Braves. He's just a guy getting paid.

Short-Term Results
Olivera didn't impress in the minors, but when rosters expanded, he finally got a callup and...well, didn't impress that much in the majors either. Still rusty with the bat, Olivera looked damn near puzzled in the field. The Braves had hoped for a springboard September and got more questions than answers. Overall, he slashed .253/.310/.405 in 24 games and lost at-bats to Adonis Garcia.

On the farm, Bird was pushed to AA as the Braves are super aggressive with their prospects. He only started three games and struggled to throw strikes in each one. He was shut down after a 5-run, 5-walk two-inning outing against Mobile on August 13. He should be on schedule to resume his AA career when 2016 opens up.

The Dodgers acquired seven players in this deal and none of them were all that good. Dodgers did quickly pushed Wood to scrap his four-seamer and use his two-seamer along with more spiked curves. He got more grounders as a result, but didn't pitch any better. He appeared in one game in the NLDS and got lit up for four runs, including a three-run homer by Yoenis Cespedes which recently landed in Iowa. Avilan was used to get out lefties, which he does a good job against. He also appeared in the playoffs and retired all four batters he faced. Johnson went to hell in LA. He gave up three homers in 18.2 ING along with a ridiculous 32 hits. Now, he was unlucky to the most extreme degree, but that provided the Dodgers little solace. Peraza appeared in seven games, but hamstring troubles sidelined him ahead of the playoffs. He was the second youngest player in the NL last season.

I don't really care about the other players in this deal because they don't relate to the Braves much at all.

Long-Term Outlook
I know I call this series John Hart's trades, but this was John Coppolella's big money gamble. Even if the Braves were going to move Wood and/or Peraza regardless, doing so for Olivera took a lot of faith. While every scouting report has said that Olivera has the bat to be a productive major leaguer, scouting reports can and have been wrong.

The deal took a hit by the news that Olivera was moving to the outfield next season. Solidifying third base added value to this trade as finding plus-production at third base is not an easy task. Only a half-dozen qualified third baseman had a 120 or better RC+ in each of the last three seasons. The number isn't that different for left field, but it's considered an easier position to formulate a productive platoon than third base. Olivera's move to the outfield caused many, including myself, to re-question this deal and ask this question - just how wrong were the Braves about Olivera? If they were wrong that he could play a competent third base, are they wrong on his hitting?

Bird is a good lottery ticket. His fastball/slider suggests an eventual move to the bullpen, but if he can get either his change or curve to be a true #3 pitch, he could remain in the picture at starter as a bottom-of-the-rotation guy with the chance to progress a bit more. As for Paco, if healthy in 2017, he's a nice weapon. When he was at his best in 2013, he had an 82 cFIP. On a scale of 100, an 82 is 18% better than the league average and the exact mark that Noah Syndergaard had this year. However, he's only appeared in 37 games in the majors since. If healthy and back to his 10 K/9, 50% groundball form, he'll be a weapon through 2019, the final year of team control.

As an aside, it's difficult to preview the #35th overall pick and for that matter, I've seen others call it the #34th. Teams that sign players who were offered a qualified offer could lose their first round pick, which would make this selection even higher. For funsies, here's a list of selected players selected from #30-#35 over the last five years: Braxton Davidson, Jason Hursh, Aaron Judge, Brian Johnson, and Kevin Plawecki.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will enter 2016 with Avilan, Peraza, and Wood and room for all three on their roster. The results immediately after the trade didn't benefit them, but while Avilan might be serviceable enough (the Dodgers could non-tender him), Peraza and Wood each could play a big role on the next Dodgers team. Or they could be trade bait.

This epic trade ultimately looks less important as we move toward the Hot Stove season just a few months later. The Dodgers made the playoffs, but lost to the Mets. The Braves were already a sinking ship and losing Wood only prompted them to give a guy like Ryan Weber a look. Peraza could have been useful as an alternative to Peterson, but with Peraza failing to advance as a player, maybe the best thing was to cut bait while his value was high. Olivera was going to be the third baseman, but he's not a third baseman. Paco's hurt even before he pitches.

Some call this deal stupid. I wouldn't go that far, but I remain unconvinced that it was the right deal for the Braves. However, if Olivera hits .285/.340/.480 next season, I'll be a bit more on board with the gamble.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com!

Been falling behind on my schedule, but here's four articles I posted this week at my other blog. I've also posted two recent posts here at this blog.

Previewing Some Braves' Targets for Free Agent Relievers

The Braves have said they want to go shopping for relief help to supplement Arodys Vizcaino, Jason Grilli, and others. Who should they target? My thinking is that they don't get too much into the big priced free agents and focus more on some more affordable options and buy-low guys. Maybe less Tyler Clippard and more Antonio Bastardo and Shawn Kelley.

7 Braves Better for Leaving Baseball

Not all draft picks work out, but many do find employment elsewhere where they reach new successes. These seven focused on football with one of them becoming a Hall of Famer and another becoming one of the most well-known coaches in college football.

Top 5 Relievers in Braves History

Since the 80's, the Braves have seen a quartet of pitchers reach the 100-save plateau. Who was better - Craig Kimbrel or John Smoltz? Did Mark Wohlers do enough to rank in the Top 5 before his control disappeared? See how they rank.

The Braves Should Avoid Daniel Murphy

While his World Series run so far has not been nearly as successful as his seven-homer barrage against the Cardinals and Cubs, Daniel Murphy has still increased his value and exposure as he prepared to hit the free agent market. Even though the Braves could use help at second base, they should stay away from Murphy. The years, production, and money are just not good fits for the Braves.

Thanks for reading!