Finishing strong with the perceived divisional favorite. While I imagine their chances to fail are about as high, it's no doubting that on paper, few teams compare with the Nationals.
Washington Nationals
Additions: Trea Turner (eventually), Dan Uggla, Yunel Escobar, Max Scherzer, Reed Johnson, Matt den Dekker
Subtractions: Adam LaRoche, Rafael Soriano, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ross Detwiler, Steven Souza, Tyler Clippard, Jerry Blevins
Rock-Solid Win Prediction: 98-64
A good deal of turnover won't change that the core largely remains the same. Obviously, the addition of Scherzer stands out as the rest are expected to max out as complimentary players (aside from Turner, of course). Scherzer's contract was a ridiculous mess and might hint at a Nationals front office that foresees the inevitable change. With only Scherzer and Ryan Zimmerman locked up beyond 2017, the time to start churning out titles is now. They have four significant free agents hitting the market next year and their payroll as already jumped about $20M in back-to-back-to-back years. How much higher can it go?
In the mean time, it's difficult to spot a weakness on this team. Defensively, you can ask reasonable questions, but that seems like more nit-picking at this point. I do wonder how much the Nats need Bryce Harper to finally ascend to the numbers that back up the hype to really become a player in October. Picking up Scherzer is less about this upcoming year and more about 2016 when Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister both hit free agency. Losing both Clippard and Blevins from last year's team might hurt them, though they have reinforcements. Like I said, the Nats look like they are head-and-shoulders above the NL East. Barring a surprising under-performance, which shouldn't be too difficult to imagine (these are the Nats after all), the Nats should clinch the East a week or two into September.
Sadly, the Nats are still churning out some solid prospects as well. When Turner is eventually added to the system, he will slot in nicely to their Top 5, adding more high-end talent to their system. Lucas Giolito looks like a gamble that will pay off well and Michael Taylor is expected to land in the majors this year. The Nationals aren't going anywhere and when the Braves finally round back into form, it will be the Nats they must topple.
Showing posts with label Nats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nats. Show all posts
Sunday, April 5, 2015
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Breaking News: Atlanta Braves Spring Roster Balloons to 231 Players
You can't say that John Hart has been passive this winter.
In addition to all of the big moves and the recent additions of Kelly Johnson and Jonny Gomes, the Braves claimed Eury Perez off waivers from the New York Yankees Friday night. So, add him to the collection of players who will come to spring training and battle for playing time while the casual Braves fans try to figure out who the hell are all these people playing for the Braves this season.
Perez, a 24 year-old outfielder, is a veteran of eight professional seasons including the last six state-side. He's also appeared in the majors for three ultra-short cups of coffee. A former Washington National prospect, Perez twice took home the organizational Fastest Baserunner honor that Baseball America dishes out along with once being named the Best Defensive OF in the system. He was also twice a Top 10 prospect for the Nats.
Over the last couple of seasons, Perez stagnated in AAA while also failing to stay healthy. He hit .310/.371/.409 last season in the minors, which outside of some rehab work in the lower levels, was spent with Syracuse in the International League. He played a good deal of right field, which typically raises an eyebrow when center fielders get moved to the corner. Usually, that means defensive issues. But I just said he was honored as the Best Defensive OF in the Nats system once. Brian Goodwin, who might have a chance to replace Denard Span in CF, had moved to AAA so that helps explain that. The better prospect always gets the time.
After Washington picked up Pedro Florimon off waivers in September, they waived Perez to open a spot. The Yankees followed by claiming Perez and sending Josh Outman away, who is now one of Perez's teammates. So, what kind of player is Perez? And could he replace B.J. Upton as some have wondered because, yeah, that's going to totally happen. The following breakdown covers both minor league numbers and the brief time spent in the majors.
There does appear to be some platoon possibilities with Perez, who was good against righties last year, average in 2012, and pretty bad in 2013 & 2011. But his numbers against southpaws have traditionally been very good. Unfortunately for him, Gomes just signed.
Since the Braves appear to not believe that Todd Cunningham is a legitimate option in center, Perez rockets up the charts to B.J.'s backup and the out-of-options outfielder will have every opportunity to win a spot this spring on a wide-open roster. On a team that might have to steal a lot of bases to press the issue, Perez could have some value both off the bench and, if BJ struggles, he could steal some time from the high-priced outfielder. Perez probably won't be much more than a fourth outfielder, who at best, could do a Juan Pierre impression. On a good team, he'd be in AAA. On a bad team...well, he starts to looks a lot better than he really is. So, I fully expect him to make the roster.
In addition to all of the big moves and the recent additions of Kelly Johnson and Jonny Gomes, the Braves claimed Eury Perez off waivers from the New York Yankees Friday night. So, add him to the collection of players who will come to spring training and battle for playing time while the casual Braves fans try to figure out who the hell are all these people playing for the Braves this season.
Perez, a 24 year-old outfielder, is a veteran of eight professional seasons including the last six state-side. He's also appeared in the majors for three ultra-short cups of coffee. A former Washington National prospect, Perez twice took home the organizational Fastest Baserunner honor that Baseball America dishes out along with once being named the Best Defensive OF in the system. He was also twice a Top 10 prospect for the Nats.
Over the last couple of seasons, Perez stagnated in AAA while also failing to stay healthy. He hit .310/.371/.409 last season in the minors, which outside of some rehab work in the lower levels, was spent with Syracuse in the International League. He played a good deal of right field, which typically raises an eyebrow when center fielders get moved to the corner. Usually, that means defensive issues. But I just said he was honored as the Best Defensive OF in the Nats system once. Brian Goodwin, who might have a chance to replace Denard Span in CF, had moved to AAA so that helps explain that. The better prospect always gets the time.
After Washington picked up Pedro Florimon off waivers in September, they waived Perez to open a spot. The Yankees followed by claiming Perez and sending Josh Outman away, who is now one of Perez's teammates. So, what kind of player is Perez? And could he replace B.J. Upton as some have wondered because, yeah, that's going to totally happen. The following breakdown covers both minor league numbers and the brief time spent in the majors.
| Year | vsRHP | vsLHP |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | .289/.363/.370 | .342/.369/.468 |
| 2013 | .273/.317/.372 | .353/.369/.521 |
| 2012 | .307/.340/.339 | .327/.350/.410 |
| 2011 | .261/.303/.317 | .321/.354/.328 |
Since the Braves appear to not believe that Todd Cunningham is a legitimate option in center, Perez rockets up the charts to B.J.'s backup and the out-of-options outfielder will have every opportunity to win a spot this spring on a wide-open roster. On a team that might have to steal a lot of bases to press the issue, Perez could have some value both off the bench and, if BJ struggles, he could steal some time from the high-priced outfielder. Perez probably won't be much more than a fourth outfielder, who at best, could do a Juan Pierre impression. On a good team, he'd be in AAA. On a bad team...well, he starts to looks a lot better than he really is. So, I fully expect him to make the roster.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
See ya, Anthony...
First, there is a lot we don't know as of this writing. Atlanta could be finalizing a trade that will make this move look much more reasonable so we shouldn't immediately jump to the conclusion that the Braves are being extra strength stupid.
With that said, the Braves twitterverse was in full uproar Monday evening when, as news broke that the Alberto Callaspo signing had been completed, in a related transaction, Atlanta designated reliever Anthony Varvaro for assignment. The Braves, who were at the full 40-man roster limit before signing Callaspo, needed to create room - that much is true. What is perplexing is why Varvaro? Again, a trade might be announced over the next few days that will clear up this matter. On the surface, it makes zero sense and I guess we must have faith in John Hart to make this work. Or just cry. I vote cry.
Varvaro was once a 12th rounder out of St. John's by the Mariners back in 2005. He started briefly, but after sucking badly, the Mariners moved him to the bullpen by 2009. His problem in the minors was walks, including a walk rate of 7.3 per nine innings in that first year as a reliever. As he began to rectify that problem and the walks fell, he started to move up the ladder in the M's system rather quickly, reaching the majors by the end of 2010.
His time with the Mariners was limited to just four games as they DFA'd him following the signing of Miguel Olivo, who would go on to have one of the most offensively inept seasons in modern history. A .253 OBP in 507 plate appearances? I can only imagine the anger of watching that saunter up to the plate 500 times. And we thought Jeff Francoeur was an out machine? Incidentally, "Out Machine" was The Miracles' unsuccessful follow-up to their final big hit.
Also...that's what happens to the guy you DFA Varvaro for? Callaspo doesn't have a chance.
With the Braves, Varvaro would spend a couple of seasons shuffling between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He was hit by the homer bug, though the sample size was low enough that I would struggle to say he pitched that poorly.
He finally came into his own during the 2013 season. Effectively replacing Cristhian Martinez in the bullpen after Lispy went down with arm troubles, Varvaro would appear in 62 games with the Braves and toss 73.1 ING, which led Braves relievers. He got more groundballs which kept the ball in the yard and even set a new personal best in fewest walks per nine innings. It wasn't all roses because he did uncork seven wild pitches and his strikeouts tumbled, the latter of which explaining the huge discrepancy in FIP (3.47) and xFIP (4.19). Still, as a long reliever who keeps the game from getting out of hand or throws quality extra innings, Varvaro was solid in his role. He even came to the plate once on August 17th of 2013 against the Nats. He had entered because Mike Minor had one of his few WTF outings of the season. Varvaro would bat following some fireworks after Stephen Strasburg, who hit Justin Upton and threw behind Andrelton Simmons, was ejected. The long reliever struck out looking against Tanner Roark. Currently, its his only plate appearance.
Varvaro returned in 2014 and took on a bigger role in the wake of injuries and poor early season play by David Carpenter. His strikeouts saw a considerable rise and he even walked fewer batters, leading to his best professional season. No longer a long guy, Varvaro was asked to get situational outs, despite reverse splits for the year and his career, another decision make by Fredi Gonzalez based on the "book" over facts. Like I said, he was still productive, but was better suited for longer outings, not as the guy coming in to face a righty.
Not arbitration-eligible, it looked like Varvaro would return to play a significant role for the Braves in 2015 until he was DFA'd. An aforementioned trade might be in the future or, as Gondeee suggests, maybe a late season drop in velocity concerned them. Or maybe the Braves want to rid themselves of everything Frank Wren ever touched (you're next, Tyler Pastornicky). Whatever the case, it was certainly an odd move as this point to dump a guy who has been productive with so many fairly worthless players already on the 40-man roster (like Pastornicky or Jose Constanza). If a trade doesn't happen, this move makes you really question just what in the hell is going on in Atlanta's front office. Even if a trade does happen, if Varvaro is simply tossed to the side for a guy in A-ball with good velocity and nothing else, you feel cheated. Four years of team-control has essentially been tossed down the drain. Let's make it worth something.
Either way, if the Curse of Varvaro is real, Callaspo is so screwed.
With that said, the Braves twitterverse was in full uproar Monday evening when, as news broke that the Alberto Callaspo signing had been completed, in a related transaction, Atlanta designated reliever Anthony Varvaro for assignment. The Braves, who were at the full 40-man roster limit before signing Callaspo, needed to create room - that much is true. What is perplexing is why Varvaro? Again, a trade might be announced over the next few days that will clear up this matter. On the surface, it makes zero sense and I guess we must have faith in John Hart to make this work. Or just cry. I vote cry.
Varvaro was once a 12th rounder out of St. John's by the Mariners back in 2005. He started briefly, but after sucking badly, the Mariners moved him to the bullpen by 2009. His problem in the minors was walks, including a walk rate of 7.3 per nine innings in that first year as a reliever. As he began to rectify that problem and the walks fell, he started to move up the ladder in the M's system rather quickly, reaching the majors by the end of 2010.
His time with the Mariners was limited to just four games as they DFA'd him following the signing of Miguel Olivo, who would go on to have one of the most offensively inept seasons in modern history. A .253 OBP in 507 plate appearances? I can only imagine the anger of watching that saunter up to the plate 500 times. And we thought Jeff Francoeur was an out machine? Incidentally, "Out Machine" was The Miracles' unsuccessful follow-up to their final big hit.
Also...that's what happens to the guy you DFA Varvaro for? Callaspo doesn't have a chance.
With the Braves, Varvaro would spend a couple of seasons shuffling between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He was hit by the homer bug, though the sample size was low enough that I would struggle to say he pitched that poorly.
He finally came into his own during the 2013 season. Effectively replacing Cristhian Martinez in the bullpen after Lispy went down with arm troubles, Varvaro would appear in 62 games with the Braves and toss 73.1 ING, which led Braves relievers. He got more groundballs which kept the ball in the yard and even set a new personal best in fewest walks per nine innings. It wasn't all roses because he did uncork seven wild pitches and his strikeouts tumbled, the latter of which explaining the huge discrepancy in FIP (3.47) and xFIP (4.19). Still, as a long reliever who keeps the game from getting out of hand or throws quality extra innings, Varvaro was solid in his role. He even came to the plate once on August 17th of 2013 against the Nats. He had entered because Mike Minor had one of his few WTF outings of the season. Varvaro would bat following some fireworks after Stephen Strasburg, who hit Justin Upton and threw behind Andrelton Simmons, was ejected. The long reliever struck out looking against Tanner Roark. Currently, its his only plate appearance.
Varvaro returned in 2014 and took on a bigger role in the wake of injuries and poor early season play by David Carpenter. His strikeouts saw a considerable rise and he even walked fewer batters, leading to his best professional season. No longer a long guy, Varvaro was asked to get situational outs, despite reverse splits for the year and his career, another decision make by Fredi Gonzalez based on the "book" over facts. Like I said, he was still productive, but was better suited for longer outings, not as the guy coming in to face a righty.
Not arbitration-eligible, it looked like Varvaro would return to play a significant role for the Braves in 2015 until he was DFA'd. An aforementioned trade might be in the future or, as Gondeee suggests, maybe a late season drop in velocity concerned them. Or maybe the Braves want to rid themselves of everything Frank Wren ever touched (you're next, Tyler Pastornicky). Whatever the case, it was certainly an odd move as this point to dump a guy who has been productive with so many fairly worthless players already on the 40-man roster (like Pastornicky or Jose Constanza). If a trade doesn't happen, this move makes you really question just what in the hell is going on in Atlanta's front office. Even if a trade does happen, if Varvaro is simply tossed to the side for a guy in A-ball with good velocity and nothing else, you feel cheated. Four years of team-control has essentially been tossed down the drain. Let's make it worth something.
Either way, if the Curse of Varvaro is real, Callaspo is so screwed.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Embrace the Rebuild and Consider a Kimbrel Trade
It's tempting when you have the best player at his position to want to keep him as long as possible. In football, if you have the best quarterback, you'll pay him whatever he wants and hope his success will compensate for a lack of depth on defense. In baseball, if you have the best pitcher, you give him whatever he desires. After all, you cannot replace Clayton Kershaw.
So, it is understandable that Craig Kimbrel was labelled untouchable and safe from being moved, according to WSB's Zach Klein in mid-November. Since becoming the Braves' closer four years ago, Kimbrel has saved 185 games, nearly 50 more than the next best total. Among relievers, he's K'd 436, or 25 more than the next pitcher on the list. His 1.51 ERA tops the list, slightly ahead of our old pal Eric O'Flaherty and only one pitcher tops Kimbrel's 0.88 WHIP. All the while, he has been incredibly durable, throwing the 8th most innings out of the pen in the 11th most games.
Last winter, Kimbrel was one of the players handed long-term extensions during Frank Wren's final offseason with the Braves. He earned $7M last year as part of the deal and is owed $9M in 2015, $11M in 2016, and $13M in 2017. In 2018, there exists a club option that would pay Kimbrel an additional $13M with a $1M buyout in case the option wasn't exercised. So, on the light end, Kimbrel is owed $34M over the next three seasons.
That's $34M the Braves would paying a guy to close games for a team that might not be competitive.
Pretty clear where I'm headed, right? Strike now and deal away Kimbrel if someone is willing. Don't give him away, but if there is a deal out there with a good return, take it.
Uh, you just said he's the best at this position. Shouldn't we want the best?
Most of the time, absolutely. You want the best center fielder (gotta work on that). You want the best starter (or second best since Kershaw is kinda locked up). You even want the best closer, but only if your team can optimize his talent. Closing the game is an often overrated "skill," but it pays handsomely and teams often are thoroughly concerned about what will happen if they are competitors that lack a shutdown guy. For a team rebuilding, though, a closer is not a necessity, but a luxury. The Phillies, for instance, are paying a considerable sum for Jonathan Papelbon. While an ass, he has been pretty good at his job. However, since joining Philly, his teams have won 81 games and 73 twice. Yet, in that time, he has been paid $37,000,058 and will get another $13M next year for a team largely considered to be, at best, a threat to finish .500.
Seems like a waste to me. That's $13M that Ruben Amaro Jr. could have sunk into someone who's older than 34.
Let me be clear. Kimbrel's not overpaid and the Braves won't be able to replace his talent. I think I pointed out how good those talents are. Let me add that I don't even know a team that it would make sense to deal Kimbrel to right now. The Yankees could use him, but would the Braves get the haul they must get in prospects from them? I doubt that. I don't want this to sound like a plea to trade Kimbrel asap. I'd rather keep him if there's no high-end package of talent coming Atlanta's way.
Also, it's worth noting that trading closers doesn't often bring back all that much. Last season, all the White Sox received for Addison Reed was Matt Davidson. Now, Davidson was a top-100 prospect before falling on his face last year, but Reed had four years of team control and was coming off a 40 save season. One B+ prospect for a pretty good closer who was 14th in fWAR among relievers that season? Back in the 2007-08 offseason, the Astros got a trio of players, led by Michael Bourn, for one year of control for Brad Lidge, but that example is a bit outdated and Bourn was the only piece that eventually became productive out of the trade.
If not now, maybe things could open up during the season. The Rangers picked up a pair of former high draft choices in pitchers Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel last July. Thompson is a starter with intriguing strikeout rates while Knebel is a reliever with incredible ratios, but neither jumped off the page as significant prospects. At the deadline in 2010, the Nationals picked up pitcher Joe Testa and a catcher for Matt Capps. Testa washed out, but the catcher, Wilson Ramos, would develop into a talented, if not often-injured, starter behind the plate. He was also a solid B to B+ prospect at the time of the trade.
A three-team deal with a flurry of moving parts might bring more Atlanta's way, though Atlanta would probably be moving more than just Kimbrel. Of course, the Braves could choose to go beyond a swap of Kimbrel and prospects and package another piece or two with Kimbrel. That's always a possibility especially if it helps the Braves acquire marquee talent.
Clearly, if Atlanta trades Kimbrel, there must be a high price tag that someone has met because other trades involving closers didn't bring in a return I think many fans, including myself, feel a player of Kimbrel's abilities deserve. You would think that once David Robertson, the best closer on the market, signs with a team this winter, teams would be desperate with only one other "closer" available in the form of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was good for the Brewers last year, but I don't think anyone's knocking each other over to attain his services. Sergio Romo and Rafael Soriano both were relieved of their closing duties last season so that's like tainted meat. Still, the sad fact that the market is so shallow also means so few teams are looking.
Maybe a team of the rise could be interested. Both Houston and the Cubs have a large cache of prospect talent, but neither seems like they are ready to make the jump and land a final piece to the puzzle like Kimbrel.
So, don't trade Kimbrel? Is that what you are saying?
No, not exactly. If there is an unlikely deal with a couple of big time prospects out there, take it. It's probably not there and Atlanta can't give away a commodity like Kimbrel. Maybe a team overreacts to an injury or ineffective play of their closer this season and is willing to pony up to the Braves' demands. If it's there, make it happen. Closers are a luxury and they definitely make things all tidy and defined in the pen, but are they needed? Well, the Giants won the World Series without their closer picking up the all important save in any game of the series...so, there's that.
I started this post with the idea that I would be convinced that trading Kimbrel was the sensible and smart thing to do. My mindset is simple. Closers are overrated and overpaid. That's my personal feeling and the market, nor the game of baseball, agrees with me. In Out of the Park, my theory checks out. I traded Kimbrel to save money and replaced him with a three-headed monster - a closer-by-committee - and it worked out the way I wanted. Three pitchers got around 15 or so saves and three others picked up about 3-5 of them. Kimbrel had a great year with Houston, the team I sent him to, and the prospects I acquired gave my system a shot in the arm. It worked out perfectly there.
But in real life, trading a closer is much more difficult and getting the return you desire is tricky. Kimbrel is a special case, just like he was in the build up to an arbitration hearing that ultimately did not happen. Trading him - while the move I would do in my head - is probably not the smart play unless a team gets desperate. Really desperate. Like day before the Prom desperate. And unfortunately, the right guy to make that trade is not only in Philly, but has little to offer.
So, it is understandable that Craig Kimbrel was labelled untouchable and safe from being moved, according to WSB's Zach Klein in mid-November. Since becoming the Braves' closer four years ago, Kimbrel has saved 185 games, nearly 50 more than the next best total. Among relievers, he's K'd 436, or 25 more than the next pitcher on the list. His 1.51 ERA tops the list, slightly ahead of our old pal Eric O'Flaherty and only one pitcher tops Kimbrel's 0.88 WHIP. All the while, he has been incredibly durable, throwing the 8th most innings out of the pen in the 11th most games.
Last winter, Kimbrel was one of the players handed long-term extensions during Frank Wren's final offseason with the Braves. He earned $7M last year as part of the deal and is owed $9M in 2015, $11M in 2016, and $13M in 2017. In 2018, there exists a club option that would pay Kimbrel an additional $13M with a $1M buyout in case the option wasn't exercised. So, on the light end, Kimbrel is owed $34M over the next three seasons.
That's $34M the Braves would paying a guy to close games for a team that might not be competitive.
Pretty clear where I'm headed, right? Strike now and deal away Kimbrel if someone is willing. Don't give him away, but if there is a deal out there with a good return, take it.
Uh, you just said he's the best at this position. Shouldn't we want the best?
Most of the time, absolutely. You want the best center fielder (gotta work on that). You want the best starter (or second best since Kershaw is kinda locked up). You even want the best closer, but only if your team can optimize his talent. Closing the game is an often overrated "skill," but it pays handsomely and teams often are thoroughly concerned about what will happen if they are competitors that lack a shutdown guy. For a team rebuilding, though, a closer is not a necessity, but a luxury. The Phillies, for instance, are paying a considerable sum for Jonathan Papelbon. While an ass, he has been pretty good at his job. However, since joining Philly, his teams have won 81 games and 73 twice. Yet, in that time, he has been paid $37,000,058 and will get another $13M next year for a team largely considered to be, at best, a threat to finish .500.
Seems like a waste to me. That's $13M that Ruben Amaro Jr. could have sunk into someone who's older than 34.
Let me be clear. Kimbrel's not overpaid and the Braves won't be able to replace his talent. I think I pointed out how good those talents are. Let me add that I don't even know a team that it would make sense to deal Kimbrel to right now. The Yankees could use him, but would the Braves get the haul they must get in prospects from them? I doubt that. I don't want this to sound like a plea to trade Kimbrel asap. I'd rather keep him if there's no high-end package of talent coming Atlanta's way.
Also, it's worth noting that trading closers doesn't often bring back all that much. Last season, all the White Sox received for Addison Reed was Matt Davidson. Now, Davidson was a top-100 prospect before falling on his face last year, but Reed had four years of team control and was coming off a 40 save season. One B+ prospect for a pretty good closer who was 14th in fWAR among relievers that season? Back in the 2007-08 offseason, the Astros got a trio of players, led by Michael Bourn, for one year of control for Brad Lidge, but that example is a bit outdated and Bourn was the only piece that eventually became productive out of the trade.
If not now, maybe things could open up during the season. The Rangers picked up a pair of former high draft choices in pitchers Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel last July. Thompson is a starter with intriguing strikeout rates while Knebel is a reliever with incredible ratios, but neither jumped off the page as significant prospects. At the deadline in 2010, the Nationals picked up pitcher Joe Testa and a catcher for Matt Capps. Testa washed out, but the catcher, Wilson Ramos, would develop into a talented, if not often-injured, starter behind the plate. He was also a solid B to B+ prospect at the time of the trade.
A three-team deal with a flurry of moving parts might bring more Atlanta's way, though Atlanta would probably be moving more than just Kimbrel. Of course, the Braves could choose to go beyond a swap of Kimbrel and prospects and package another piece or two with Kimbrel. That's always a possibility especially if it helps the Braves acquire marquee talent.
Clearly, if Atlanta trades Kimbrel, there must be a high price tag that someone has met because other trades involving closers didn't bring in a return I think many fans, including myself, feel a player of Kimbrel's abilities deserve. You would think that once David Robertson, the best closer on the market, signs with a team this winter, teams would be desperate with only one other "closer" available in the form of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was good for the Brewers last year, but I don't think anyone's knocking each other over to attain his services. Sergio Romo and Rafael Soriano both were relieved of their closing duties last season so that's like tainted meat. Still, the sad fact that the market is so shallow also means so few teams are looking.
Maybe a team of the rise could be interested. Both Houston and the Cubs have a large cache of prospect talent, but neither seems like they are ready to make the jump and land a final piece to the puzzle like Kimbrel.
So, don't trade Kimbrel? Is that what you are saying?
No, not exactly. If there is an unlikely deal with a couple of big time prospects out there, take it. It's probably not there and Atlanta can't give away a commodity like Kimbrel. Maybe a team overreacts to an injury or ineffective play of their closer this season and is willing to pony up to the Braves' demands. If it's there, make it happen. Closers are a luxury and they definitely make things all tidy and defined in the pen, but are they needed? Well, the Giants won the World Series without their closer picking up the all important save in any game of the series...so, there's that.
I started this post with the idea that I would be convinced that trading Kimbrel was the sensible and smart thing to do. My mindset is simple. Closers are overrated and overpaid. That's my personal feeling and the market, nor the game of baseball, agrees with me. In Out of the Park, my theory checks out. I traded Kimbrel to save money and replaced him with a three-headed monster - a closer-by-committee - and it worked out the way I wanted. Three pitchers got around 15 or so saves and three others picked up about 3-5 of them. Kimbrel had a great year with Houston, the team I sent him to, and the prospects I acquired gave my system a shot in the arm. It worked out perfectly there.
But in real life, trading a closer is much more difficult and getting the return you desire is tricky. Kimbrel is a special case, just like he was in the build up to an arbitration hearing that ultimately did not happen. Trading him - while the move I would do in my head - is probably not the smart play unless a team gets desperate. Really desperate. Like day before the Prom desperate. And unfortunately, the right guy to make that trade is not only in Philly, but has little to offer.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Interesting Rule 5 Guys
The Rule 5 draft rarely hurts the team losing the player and rarely does much for the team gaining the player. The Atlanta Braves last drafted a player in the Rule 5 in 2011, picking up lefty Robert Fish from the Angels. While Fish was kept as the Angels weren't that interested in getting him back for the second straight year (he was a Rule 5 choice the year before), the former sixth rounder never played above A-ball for the Braves and was released. You have to go all the way back to 1997 to find a player the Braves picked in the Rule 5 and who broke camp with the team. Brian Edmondson appeared in ten games for Atlanta that season before being waived in early June. A few followed the Chris Spurling road. Get drafted, spend most if not all of the spring with the Braves, get traded.
While Atlanta has rarely selected players, it has been more frequently raided by other teams. Most recently, the Twins picked up left-hander Scott Diamond in 2011 and he started 58 games for them between 2011 and 2013. A Canadian fan favorite and outfielder, Adam Stern was picked in 2004. Like Diamond after him, fans bemoaned the loss as another player on the 40-man roster was kept over him. He also shares the fact that his career was short and unremarkable with Diamond.
Not that there aren't Rule 5 success stories. Johan Santana stands out and as does our former friend Dan Uggla. It's just rare that the player even sticks around to play for the team he was drafted by and rare that the Braves even try.
But this year could be the kind of season to give it a try. We've heard all winter how Frank Wren destroyed the minor league depth for the organization. Whether that's fair or not, looking at who the Braves worked to keep a few weeks ago, it's fairly obvious that there truly is a problem. If Atlanta wants to add depth, the answer might come in December 11th's Rule 5 draft. The only problem is that to get a draft choice, you need to have room on the 40-man roster. Currently, Atlanta is carrying 40 players. That could change and I truly hope it does. Here are some of the guys who could be useful for the Braves in 2015 and beyond.
An Option for the Starting Rotation
Jed Bradley - Milwaukee
As rare as picking a pitcher that sticks is, it's almost never seen that a starter jumps into his new team's rotation like Diamond did as Rule 5 choice. However, as it stands, the Braves do have an empty spot at the bottom of the rotation. Sure, there are the flirtations with Jon Lester and Justin Masterson, the intriguing cases of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, and the exceedingly mediocre David Hale, but as of right this second, the fifth spot is wide open. Could Bradley be an option? Obviously, he would have to make an impression in spring training and pitching coach Roger McDowell would have to do his magic, but Bradley is only three years removed from being the 15th overall selection out of Georgia Tech. The left-hand starter could get a shot at bullpen work, but let's look at him as a starter first. He certainly hasn't been overly impressive stat-wise just yet, but something to consider was that he moved toward getting more groundballs last year. Things clicked and led to a promotion to AA, where he started strong and was roughed up late. Making the jump to the majors after 17 starts in AA is hard for huge prospects, let alone fringe ones. He has a nice mid-90's fastball and a good feel for his change-up. Would he stick with the Braves? Probably not. However, if pitching depth is a problem, why not take a chance? An alternate route is if McDowell likes him and wants to keep working with him, the Braves could work out a deal with the Brewers to keep Bradley, but send him to the minors.
Greg Peavey - New York Mets
A member of the Little League World Series in 2000, Peavey's velocity stays in the low 90's. With a good, hard slider, he might be better off in the bullpen, but is coming off a solid year with AA Binghamton in the Eastern League where he posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. A six-start run in the Pacific Coast League with Las Vegas didn't go so well and his AAA numbers are abysmal, but the former sixth rounder from Oregon State has superb control and is a bit of a surprise that he's even available.
Bullpen Depth
Greg Infante - Toronto
Unlike many that could interest the Braves, Infante has some major league experience as he appeared in five games with the White Sox in 2010. He hasn't got back to the majors since, but the now 27 year-old did have a 1.94 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 2.4 K/BB in 41 games last season. Bullpen guys have a better chance of sticking than starters out of the Rule 5 draft and Infante could possibly help the Braves next season.
Andrew McKirahan - Chicago Cubs
You want strikeouts? He has plenty. You want control? Impeccable. You want a lefty? Bingo. McKirahan has only pitched 21 games above A-ball, but seems to stand a great chance of being drafted in a few weeks (or traded beforehand). Another member of the Tommy John Saved Our Career Club, McKirahan could surprise some people in 2015.
Keith Butler - St. Louis
Recently outrighted by the Cards, Butler has appeared in 18 games in the majors over the last two seasons and has great ratios in the minors. However, he missed most of last season with Tommy John and could miss significant time in 2015 working his way back. After an exhaustive rehab stint, the Braves will be forced to make a decision. The good news is that Butler could be a really good reliever. The bad news is that it might not come until 2016.
Sean Gilmartin - Minnesota
Amazingly, people were sweating losing Gilmartin in last year's Ryan Doumit trade. While Doumit and his demon eyes crashed and burned, Gilmartin stagnated. But he pitches with his left arm and that makes him a bit more valuable than he probably should be. As a long reliever/emergency starter/sometimes LOOGY, Gilmartin could be an option.
John Stilson - Toronto
Unlike many available prospects in the draft, Stilson has extensive time at AAA. He also is coming off shoulder surgery that will likely keep him from competing for a spot in camp. However, his mid-90's fastball and good change-up could interest Atlanta into taking a shot on the former Texas A&M pitcher.
Bench Options
Mark Canha - Florida
With right-handed pop at a premium, Canha could intrigue teams like the Braves. While his natural defensive position is blocked by Freddie Freeman, Canha does have limited experience at third base and in the corner outfield positions and the good news there is that experience is recent. He's coming off a season with AAA-New Orleans where Canha slashed .303/.384/.505, which were mild improvements over his career numbers.
Delino DeShields - Houston
It's remarkable that he is available for this draft, though that also might be a sign that there is something that doesn't add up with this kid. The son of a former MLB player, DeShields possesses world-class speed included 101 steals in 2012. He gets his fair share of swings-and-misses, but still does a solid job getting on base, making his speed a real weapon. He also has enough pop to surpass ten homers in two-of-the-last three seasons. Defensively, he's probably nothing special in center, which he was moved to last season, though he also plays seconds. So, the problem? Attitude, it appears. He has been pulled more than a few times for not running out balls. Talent-wise, he's probably the best offensive player in this draft. But will he accept coaching and play hard? Well, the Astros, of all teams, did leave him unprotected for a reason.
Jared Mitchell - Chicago White Sox
Always a strikeout-prone left-hand hitter, this 2009 first-round talent has been a bust for his entire career. Until last season, that is. The former LSU Tiger still struck out a ton, but he posted his best season with an .806 OPS and 19 HR. He has some speed, though his basestealing isn't much of a skill. He also walks at a solid rate. Could be a late bloomer with platoon capability in left.
Matt Skole - Washington
With the Braves reportedly interested in a platoon option to pair with Chris Johnson, Skole could attract some attention. A fifth rounder in 2011, Skole came onto the scene the following season with a .291/.426/.559 slash that included 27 homers. A significant wrist injury sidelined him in 2013 and the his numbers were down in 2014, but he did hit 5 of his 14 homers in his final 19 games. However, he moved across the diamond for most of the season so he might not be able to play a competent enough 3B at this point.
Zach Borenstein - Arizona
A left-hand hitting corner outfielder, Borenstein was picked up by the D'Backs in the trade that send Joe Thatcher to Anaheim. In four seasons since being drafted in the 23rd round, all he has done is hit to the tune of .286/.359/.509 while climbing to AAA for 20 games last year. Does he have much upside? Probably not. Will he be a AAA regular for the next five years before moving to Asia? Possibly. But he's worth a look for a team that could use options in the outfield.
Chances are that none of these players become productive major leaguers. Teams have essentially said that they are not good enough to be protected and they are probably right in most cases. This is where the scouts earn their money. Atlanta probably won't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, but for a team that has plenty of holes, I believe it's worth a shot on these players I've profiled and others I didn't mention.
While Atlanta has rarely selected players, it has been more frequently raided by other teams. Most recently, the Twins picked up left-hander Scott Diamond in 2011 and he started 58 games for them between 2011 and 2013. A Canadian fan favorite and outfielder, Adam Stern was picked in 2004. Like Diamond after him, fans bemoaned the loss as another player on the 40-man roster was kept over him. He also shares the fact that his career was short and unremarkable with Diamond.
Not that there aren't Rule 5 success stories. Johan Santana stands out and as does our former friend Dan Uggla. It's just rare that the player even sticks around to play for the team he was drafted by and rare that the Braves even try.
But this year could be the kind of season to give it a try. We've heard all winter how Frank Wren destroyed the minor league depth for the organization. Whether that's fair or not, looking at who the Braves worked to keep a few weeks ago, it's fairly obvious that there truly is a problem. If Atlanta wants to add depth, the answer might come in December 11th's Rule 5 draft. The only problem is that to get a draft choice, you need to have room on the 40-man roster. Currently, Atlanta is carrying 40 players. That could change and I truly hope it does. Here are some of the guys who could be useful for the Braves in 2015 and beyond.
An Option for the Starting Rotation
Jed Bradley - Milwaukee
As rare as picking a pitcher that sticks is, it's almost never seen that a starter jumps into his new team's rotation like Diamond did as Rule 5 choice. However, as it stands, the Braves do have an empty spot at the bottom of the rotation. Sure, there are the flirtations with Jon Lester and Justin Masterson, the intriguing cases of Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, and the exceedingly mediocre David Hale, but as of right this second, the fifth spot is wide open. Could Bradley be an option? Obviously, he would have to make an impression in spring training and pitching coach Roger McDowell would have to do his magic, but Bradley is only three years removed from being the 15th overall selection out of Georgia Tech. The left-hand starter could get a shot at bullpen work, but let's look at him as a starter first. He certainly hasn't been overly impressive stat-wise just yet, but something to consider was that he moved toward getting more groundballs last year. Things clicked and led to a promotion to AA, where he started strong and was roughed up late. Making the jump to the majors after 17 starts in AA is hard for huge prospects, let alone fringe ones. He has a nice mid-90's fastball and a good feel for his change-up. Would he stick with the Braves? Probably not. However, if pitching depth is a problem, why not take a chance? An alternate route is if McDowell likes him and wants to keep working with him, the Braves could work out a deal with the Brewers to keep Bradley, but send him to the minors.
Greg Peavey - New York Mets
A member of the Little League World Series in 2000, Peavey's velocity stays in the low 90's. With a good, hard slider, he might be better off in the bullpen, but is coming off a solid year with AA Binghamton in the Eastern League where he posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. A six-start run in the Pacific Coast League with Las Vegas didn't go so well and his AAA numbers are abysmal, but the former sixth rounder from Oregon State has superb control and is a bit of a surprise that he's even available.
Bullpen Depth
Greg Infante - Toronto
Unlike many that could interest the Braves, Infante has some major league experience as he appeared in five games with the White Sox in 2010. He hasn't got back to the majors since, but the now 27 year-old did have a 1.94 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 2.4 K/BB in 41 games last season. Bullpen guys have a better chance of sticking than starters out of the Rule 5 draft and Infante could possibly help the Braves next season.
Andrew McKirahan - Chicago Cubs
You want strikeouts? He has plenty. You want control? Impeccable. You want a lefty? Bingo. McKirahan has only pitched 21 games above A-ball, but seems to stand a great chance of being drafted in a few weeks (or traded beforehand). Another member of the Tommy John Saved Our Career Club, McKirahan could surprise some people in 2015.
Keith Butler - St. Louis
Recently outrighted by the Cards, Butler has appeared in 18 games in the majors over the last two seasons and has great ratios in the minors. However, he missed most of last season with Tommy John and could miss significant time in 2015 working his way back. After an exhaustive rehab stint, the Braves will be forced to make a decision. The good news is that Butler could be a really good reliever. The bad news is that it might not come until 2016.
Sean Gilmartin - Minnesota
Amazingly, people were sweating losing Gilmartin in last year's Ryan Doumit trade. While Doumit and his demon eyes crashed and burned, Gilmartin stagnated. But he pitches with his left arm and that makes him a bit more valuable than he probably should be. As a long reliever/emergency starter/sometimes LOOGY, Gilmartin could be an option.
John Stilson - Toronto
Unlike many available prospects in the draft, Stilson has extensive time at AAA. He also is coming off shoulder surgery that will likely keep him from competing for a spot in camp. However, his mid-90's fastball and good change-up could interest Atlanta into taking a shot on the former Texas A&M pitcher.
Bench Options
Mark Canha - Florida
With right-handed pop at a premium, Canha could intrigue teams like the Braves. While his natural defensive position is blocked by Freddie Freeman, Canha does have limited experience at third base and in the corner outfield positions and the good news there is that experience is recent. He's coming off a season with AAA-New Orleans where Canha slashed .303/.384/.505, which were mild improvements over his career numbers.
Delino DeShields - Houston
It's remarkable that he is available for this draft, though that also might be a sign that there is something that doesn't add up with this kid. The son of a former MLB player, DeShields possesses world-class speed included 101 steals in 2012. He gets his fair share of swings-and-misses, but still does a solid job getting on base, making his speed a real weapon. He also has enough pop to surpass ten homers in two-of-the-last three seasons. Defensively, he's probably nothing special in center, which he was moved to last season, though he also plays seconds. So, the problem? Attitude, it appears. He has been pulled more than a few times for not running out balls. Talent-wise, he's probably the best offensive player in this draft. But will he accept coaching and play hard? Well, the Astros, of all teams, did leave him unprotected for a reason.
Jared Mitchell - Chicago White Sox
Always a strikeout-prone left-hand hitter, this 2009 first-round talent has been a bust for his entire career. Until last season, that is. The former LSU Tiger still struck out a ton, but he posted his best season with an .806 OPS and 19 HR. He has some speed, though his basestealing isn't much of a skill. He also walks at a solid rate. Could be a late bloomer with platoon capability in left.
Matt Skole - Washington
With the Braves reportedly interested in a platoon option to pair with Chris Johnson, Skole could attract some attention. A fifth rounder in 2011, Skole came onto the scene the following season with a .291/.426/.559 slash that included 27 homers. A significant wrist injury sidelined him in 2013 and the his numbers were down in 2014, but he did hit 5 of his 14 homers in his final 19 games. However, he moved across the diamond for most of the season so he might not be able to play a competent enough 3B at this point.
Zach Borenstein - Arizona
A left-hand hitting corner outfielder, Borenstein was picked up by the D'Backs in the trade that send Joe Thatcher to Anaheim. In four seasons since being drafted in the 23rd round, all he has done is hit to the tune of .286/.359/.509 while climbing to AAA for 20 games last year. Does he have much upside? Probably not. Will he be a AAA regular for the next five years before moving to Asia? Possibly. But he's worth a look for a team that could use options in the outfield.
Chances are that none of these players become productive major leaguers. Teams have essentially said that they are not good enough to be protected and they are probably right in most cases. This is where the scouts earn their money. Atlanta probably won't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, but for a team that has plenty of holes, I believe it's worth a shot on these players I've profiled and others I didn't mention.
Friday, June 13, 2014
The Lineup: Does Placement Matter?
After a couple of disappointing games in Denver, the Braves find themselves reeling as they return home to meet the Angels for a three-game weekend series. For a change, Atlanta trails in the NL East and their fan-base is panicking. Can the Braves stop the bleeding or is this flawed team just not capable of beating the media's favorite, the Washington Nationals? Oh, you've heard of them, I'm sure. For a year-and-a-half now, the media was sure the Nationals were not just NL East favorites, but a contender for a ring. While the media has seemed quick to point out the many flaws of the Braves (strikeouts, lack of a "true ace," etc.), they have remained incapable of pointing out the flaws of the Nationals. Clearly, they reasoned, things weren't working, but they had no idea why. It was easy to see observe why last year was full of struggles just like it's easy to see what their issues are this season. But that's a different article. Nevertheless, the Nats lead the Braves by a game so the media is now patting themselves on the back for calling this in 2013.
The Braves lineup has often been criticized by both media blowhards and fans alike. Either because of a lack of a "true leadoff hitter," the strikeouts, the focus on power, or something else entirely, the Braves lineup has issues. But the simple answer is rarely the right one and in this case, that holds true. Last season, the Braves were 4th in the NL in runs scored, largely a product of the sixth best OBP, 2nd best SLG, and 3 best OPS. This season, all of those numbers are below the league average. The team lost Brian McCann, but that can't explain the offensive issues.
Instead, a couple of starters are having down years while the bench, a strength for a good portion of 2013, has been a weakness this year. Nobody on the current bench has an OPS above .630. This puts an increased responsibility on the starting lineup to produce while also making it even more important for the players in the lineup to be placed in the right spots to maximize production. Lineup optimization is a tricky subject. On one hand, its impact is often overstated. On the other hand, the goal of the manager is to put his players in the best position to succeed and therefore, optimizing the lineup is a responsibility of that manager. Last season, it took over half of the season for Fredi Gonzalez to agree that a sub-.300 OBP was miscast in the leadoff spot. We have to hope this season is not similar.
So, out of the goodness of my heart, here is my optimal lineup. Maybe it might help Fredi.
1. Jason Heyward, RF - I get it, I do. He's inconsistent and many will argue his power is wasted in a leadoff spot. I don't necessarily disagree with either observation, but the Braves don't have many options to succeed. For what it's worth, since the first two weeks of the season, Heyward has hit .289/.353/.416 over his last 48 games. Overall, he's third on the team in OBP and his nine steals rank second. Utilizing his skill set would be best served in the leadoff spot on this team.
2. Tommy La Stella, 2B - I'll admit it. I've come around on this guy if only because our previous production at second base was so abysmal. La Stella finally got his first extra base hit yesterday and while I don't expect many, his OBP skills are wasted lower in the order. He has great bat control and with Heyward on in front of him, could get a lot of rallies going by serving the ball into right field with the help of a hole opened up by holding Heyward. In addition, when he leads off an inning, he has the on-base skills to get an inning going as well.
3. Justin Upton, LF - Again, playing the averages here. J-Up is a better on-base/power combo than the next hitter. He also can swipe a base at a high-rate. While you could flip-flop Upton with the next hitter, I'm merely attempting to avoid three straight lefties, plus I do believe Upton is a better all-around hitter at this point than the current #3 and will take more pitches, leading to earlier trips to the shower for the opposing pitcher. In fact, one of the things I love about the first three in the lineup is their penchant for taking pitches. Our goal should be to score a run or see 16 pitches every inning.
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B - Not as much a demotion as a promotion to more run-producing opportunities. Right now, Freeman comes to the plate after a trio of hitters that include Heyward, who is the only really decent one of the group at getting on (and yes, the pitcher is included). That mutes Freeman's production. A spot behind this three could lead to more opportunities. His capable bat will also sustain rallies.
5. Evan Gattis, C - Another guy I've come around on. Gattis hacks more than I'd like, but his power would be a huge advantage behind a bunch of guys getting on base. You'll take the OBP hit here, though Gattis has hit well enough so far to sustain a decent OBP. More, you give Gattis the opportunity to turn a couple of hits in an inning into a crooked number in the run column.
6. B.J. Upton, CF - I know we've heard that he feels more comfortable in the two spot, but this isn't about how comfortable Upton feels. This is about optimizing the run producing situations for the team. His .662 OPS batting behind Heyward may be better than any other place in the lineup, but that's not good enough. The Braves need more and Upton will have to enjoy the opportunity of hitting behind the five best offensive players in the lineup.
7. Chris Johnson, 3B - The BABIP Lord was back in action in Coors Field, though all of his hits were singles. If he can continue to produce, I wouldn't be against flip-flopping him with Upton, but I'll have to see more production first. 2013 Johnson would definitely make this lineup more dynamic. As it is, CJ just doesn't give the Braves enough to work with.
8. Pitcher - I already see the sighs and eyes rolling. Why bat a pitcher 8th, many might ask. The rationale is pretty simple and it's the same rationale for batting a better hitter 9th in a lineup with the DH while batting your weakest hitter 8th. In addition to getting the guys who make the fewest outs the most at-bats, you should want to give those same hitters the most opportunities with runners on base. While there is a chance of more opportunities where the pitcher spot comes up in "RBI" situations with him batting 8th as opposed to 9th, I sincerely believe, especially in this lineup, the positives are better than the negatives.
9. Andrelton Simmons, SS - While Simmons is hardly an on-base guy, he is a better option to get on base in front of Heyward and Company than the pitcher. This leads to more opportunities to score runs and more runs often leads to more wins. More wins often gives way to a twittersphere not losing their collective shit. If CJ finds his BABIP idol and continues to hit, I would actually put Johnson sixth, Simmons seventh, and bat B.J. Upton ninth.
What do you think of my lineup? Feel free to crucify me in the comment section.
The Braves lineup has often been criticized by both media blowhards and fans alike. Either because of a lack of a "true leadoff hitter," the strikeouts, the focus on power, or something else entirely, the Braves lineup has issues. But the simple answer is rarely the right one and in this case, that holds true. Last season, the Braves were 4th in the NL in runs scored, largely a product of the sixth best OBP, 2nd best SLG, and 3 best OPS. This season, all of those numbers are below the league average. The team lost Brian McCann, but that can't explain the offensive issues.
Instead, a couple of starters are having down years while the bench, a strength for a good portion of 2013, has been a weakness this year. Nobody on the current bench has an OPS above .630. This puts an increased responsibility on the starting lineup to produce while also making it even more important for the players in the lineup to be placed in the right spots to maximize production. Lineup optimization is a tricky subject. On one hand, its impact is often overstated. On the other hand, the goal of the manager is to put his players in the best position to succeed and therefore, optimizing the lineup is a responsibility of that manager. Last season, it took over half of the season for Fredi Gonzalez to agree that a sub-.300 OBP was miscast in the leadoff spot. We have to hope this season is not similar.
So, out of the goodness of my heart, here is my optimal lineup. Maybe it might help Fredi.
1. Jason Heyward, RF - I get it, I do. He's inconsistent and many will argue his power is wasted in a leadoff spot. I don't necessarily disagree with either observation, but the Braves don't have many options to succeed. For what it's worth, since the first two weeks of the season, Heyward has hit .289/.353/.416 over his last 48 games. Overall, he's third on the team in OBP and his nine steals rank second. Utilizing his skill set would be best served in the leadoff spot on this team.
2. Tommy La Stella, 2B - I'll admit it. I've come around on this guy if only because our previous production at second base was so abysmal. La Stella finally got his first extra base hit yesterday and while I don't expect many, his OBP skills are wasted lower in the order. He has great bat control and with Heyward on in front of him, could get a lot of rallies going by serving the ball into right field with the help of a hole opened up by holding Heyward. In addition, when he leads off an inning, he has the on-base skills to get an inning going as well.
3. Justin Upton, LF - Again, playing the averages here. J-Up is a better on-base/power combo than the next hitter. He also can swipe a base at a high-rate. While you could flip-flop Upton with the next hitter, I'm merely attempting to avoid three straight lefties, plus I do believe Upton is a better all-around hitter at this point than the current #3 and will take more pitches, leading to earlier trips to the shower for the opposing pitcher. In fact, one of the things I love about the first three in the lineup is their penchant for taking pitches. Our goal should be to score a run or see 16 pitches every inning.
4. Freddie Freeman, 1B - Not as much a demotion as a promotion to more run-producing opportunities. Right now, Freeman comes to the plate after a trio of hitters that include Heyward, who is the only really decent one of the group at getting on (and yes, the pitcher is included). That mutes Freeman's production. A spot behind this three could lead to more opportunities. His capable bat will also sustain rallies.
5. Evan Gattis, C - Another guy I've come around on. Gattis hacks more than I'd like, but his power would be a huge advantage behind a bunch of guys getting on base. You'll take the OBP hit here, though Gattis has hit well enough so far to sustain a decent OBP. More, you give Gattis the opportunity to turn a couple of hits in an inning into a crooked number in the run column.
6. B.J. Upton, CF - I know we've heard that he feels more comfortable in the two spot, but this isn't about how comfortable Upton feels. This is about optimizing the run producing situations for the team. His .662 OPS batting behind Heyward may be better than any other place in the lineup, but that's not good enough. The Braves need more and Upton will have to enjoy the opportunity of hitting behind the five best offensive players in the lineup.
7. Chris Johnson, 3B - The BABIP Lord was back in action in Coors Field, though all of his hits were singles. If he can continue to produce, I wouldn't be against flip-flopping him with Upton, but I'll have to see more production first. 2013 Johnson would definitely make this lineup more dynamic. As it is, CJ just doesn't give the Braves enough to work with.
8. Pitcher - I already see the sighs and eyes rolling. Why bat a pitcher 8th, many might ask. The rationale is pretty simple and it's the same rationale for batting a better hitter 9th in a lineup with the DH while batting your weakest hitter 8th. In addition to getting the guys who make the fewest outs the most at-bats, you should want to give those same hitters the most opportunities with runners on base. While there is a chance of more opportunities where the pitcher spot comes up in "RBI" situations with him batting 8th as opposed to 9th, I sincerely believe, especially in this lineup, the positives are better than the negatives.
9. Andrelton Simmons, SS - While Simmons is hardly an on-base guy, he is a better option to get on base in front of Heyward and Company than the pitcher. This leads to more opportunities to score runs and more runs often leads to more wins. More wins often gives way to a twittersphere not losing their collective shit. If CJ finds his BABIP idol and continues to hit, I would actually put Johnson sixth, Simmons seventh, and bat B.J. Upton ninth.
What do you think of my lineup? Feel free to crucify me in the comment section.
Monday, February 17, 2014
A Look Back: 2008 Draft
Before my second daughter's birth, I began a series that analyzed the impact, or lack thereof, of the recent amateur draft classes for the Atlanta Braves organization. Beginning with the 2012 draft, I followed the outcomes of four different years. If you would like to look back at those articles, you can do so by clicking one of the following links: 2012, 2011, 2010, and 2009.
Today, let's continue it with the fifth addition to the club, the 2008 draft. While the first two picks petered out as busts, the draft did give the Braves a few major league talents, including the best closer in baseball. The Braves did not have a first round pick that season, losing it as compensation for signing Tom Glavine from the Mets. Um, a waste. The Mets took current first baseman Ike Davis with the pick. Unknown who the Braves would have targetted with the 18th overall selection, but Andrew Cashner was picked next. That would have been a nice addition.
The Braves did get a supplemental pick after the Royals signed left-hander Ron Mahay. So, the first pick could technically be added to the Mark Teixeira deal. Unfortunately, it does not help that terrible deal's outcome. The Braves also got an additional second round pick after failing to sign Josh Fields the previous year. Like previous editions, I'll go over the top ten rounds and add any interesting picks.
Keep this in mind. Of the 51 players selected in 2008, only two remain with the Braves organization.
1. Brett DeVall, LHP, Niceville High School (Niceville, FL)
It was supposed to be a good fit. Crafty left-hander with surprising velocity from the southeast goes to the Braves. This is how successful pairings begin. However, DeVall would only appear in 33 games with the organization before being cut before the beginning of the 2011 season. What went wrong?
Injuries definitely played a role. He made just 10 starts with Rome in 2009 before his season ended in June. The following year, his final with the organization, he got a late start to the year and made only 19 starts with pretty forgetful numbers. But it was more than just injuries from what I read. He showed up overweight and apparently refused to undergo Tommy John surgery even after being advised by Dr. James Andrews that he needed it. And according to his twitter account, he's a douchenozzle. Last October 26th, he tweeted, "not many more things in baseball i enjoy more then asian relievers shitting the bed." Wow, really? Suffice it to say, since the Braves cut him, his phone hasn't been ringing off the hook.
2. Tyler Stovall, LHP, Hokes Bluff High School (Gadsden, AL)
Back-to-back high school lefties to open the draft, back-to-back busts. Stovall could run it up to the low 90's with a good curveball and again, it looked like a good fit. Stovall was a two-sport star signed on to play baseball at Auburn when he signed with the Braves. However, his production was minimal and he was switched to the bullpen, which is hardly a good sign for a second rounder out of high school. The Braves cut Stovall after the 2011 season and after a stop (but no appearances) with the Royals and a year in independent ball, where he didn't fair too well, Stovall was out of baseball. But the story doesn't end there. Like 2011 8th rounder Kurt Fleming, Stovall has found second life in the SEC as a football player as a walk-on backup punter and holder for the Auburn Tigers. Bonus...as part of his original contract with the Braves, Atlanta is on the hook for 8 semesters. Shrewd.
2. Zeke Spruill, RHP, Kell High School (Marietta, GA)
While the first two picks of 2008 washed out, Spruill has persevered, even as the Braves cut bait with the former Georgia product. Spruill continues the string of crafty guys former scouting director Roy Clark loved to grab early and often. Only thing about craftiness is that it's not very exciting and rarely do the players ever contribute in a meaningful way in the majors. Spruill climbed the ladder steadily, though he was never a big prospect. Last offseason, he was added to the Justin Upton trade and appeared in six games with the Diamondbacks last year, including two starts. He also faced the Braves last June 28th out of the pen and gave up an RBI single to Reed Johnson.
3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Wallace State Community College
Oh, you've heard of him? The best reliever in the game has always been a reliever. Atlanta originally took him in the 33rd round in 2008, but could not sign the Lee High School alum. Fortunately, they got a second chance and got the young reliever and it did not take long for Kimbrel to rocket up the charts. In 151 minor league innings, he struck out 242. He had one potential problem to a successful career in the majors and that was his control. He walked nearly 6 per nine innings during his minor league career, but it all clicked for him in 2011 as he took home the Rookie of the Year award and sported a 3.7 BB/9 rate.
4. Braeden Schlehuber, C, College of Southern Nevada
Breaden was the first Random Prospect of the Day back in June of 2012. Unfortunately, he received zero boost from the Walk-Off Walk bump and has been classified as an organizational catcher since signing. He's currently in camp as a non-roster invitee, but even if Gerald Laird wasn't with the Braves, Schlehuber was headed back to the minors regardless of what he does this spring. Since signing, he has hit .224 with a .622 OPS and has rarely been a team's primary catcher. Over the last three seasons, he has played with both Lynchburg and Mississippi. Chances are he'll be back in Mississippi.
5. Jacob Thompson, RHP, University of Virginia
What was with Roy Clark's obsession with soft-tossing guys? Add Thompson to the crowd and also add him to the list of former Braves. Thompson was never that good, but he steadily climbed the ladder to appear with the Gwinnett Braves in 2011. The results were not that good and Thompson surprisingly retired at age-24, a day after giving up seven runs in 2.1 ING to Toledo on May 14th. I saw Thompson pitch for Myrtle Beach against the then-Pirates-affiliated Lynchburg Hillcats and he looked every bit of a low-ceiling guy.
6. Adam Milligan, OF, Walters State Community College
Milligan was drafted three times by the Braves before the native of Tennessee finally signed. The Braves hoped that left-handed hitting imposing figure would add some more raw power. However, Milligan could never stay healthy despite some relatively solid numbers along the way. He struggled in 2012 with Mississippi and was banished to Lynchburg, where he never could turn it on and before last season, the Braves parted ways with Milligan. A shame he was never able to stay healthy.
7. Paul Clemens, RHP, Louisburg College
One of the most ridiculous numbers last season came from Clemens, who split time with Oklahoma City and Houston. With the Astros, he gave up 16 HR in 73.1 ING. To put that into different terms, for every nine innings Clemens could throw, he would give up 2 homers. That ratio tied him with Joe Blanton and tying Blanton with anything is a bad sign. Clemens has been with the Astros since the trading deadline in 2011 when the Braves acquired Michael Bourn. That was also his first year as a full-time starter after splitting time between starting and relieving before that. He's never been better than decent.
8. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP, Seminole Community College
Also going to the Astros in the Bourn trade was Oberholtzer, a stocky left-hander who is, as the theme goes, crafty. Oberholtzer was a fast-riser and was already in AA-Mississippi and holding his own at the time of the trade. He made it to the majors last season and looked like he belonged. He picked up a pair of complete games, including a four-hitter against the Mariners last September 1st. Oberholtzer could be a late bloomer, but I doubt he's much more than a bottom-of-the-rotation cog.
9. Kyle Farrell, RHP, Western Nevada College
139 innings. That's all the Braves needed to see from Farrell to grow disinterested with keeping the 6'4" righty in the system past 2010. He never made it out of rookie ball and hasn't played organized ball since.
10. J.J. Hoover, RHP, Calhoun Community College
Blessed with a heavy fastball, Hoover displayed great strikeout numbers as he climbed the minor league ladder, rarely staying in one place for very long. Hoover was eventually transitioned to the bullpen in 2011 and looked like he could be a sleeper for the 2012 roster, but instead of making the roster, he was dealt to the Reds for Juan Francisco. It didn't take him long to get to the majors from there and he has been a steady reliever in the pen for the Reds.
Other interesting picks...
-Former Georgia Tech pitcher and 17th rounder pitcher Mark Pope didn't sign with the Braves and was eventually drafted again by the Padres, where he played for two seasons before getting cut. The Braves tried their luck with Pope and he opened 2013 with the Hillcats, but was released a month later.
-A pair of picks were used on guys who didn't sign and eventually were drafted by the Nationals. 16th rounder OF Billy Burns and 27th rounder infielder Anthony Rendon.
Today, let's continue it with the fifth addition to the club, the 2008 draft. While the first two picks petered out as busts, the draft did give the Braves a few major league talents, including the best closer in baseball. The Braves did not have a first round pick that season, losing it as compensation for signing Tom Glavine from the Mets. Um, a waste. The Mets took current first baseman Ike Davis with the pick. Unknown who the Braves would have targetted with the 18th overall selection, but Andrew Cashner was picked next. That would have been a nice addition.
The Braves did get a supplemental pick after the Royals signed left-hander Ron Mahay. So, the first pick could technically be added to the Mark Teixeira deal. Unfortunately, it does not help that terrible deal's outcome. The Braves also got an additional second round pick after failing to sign Josh Fields the previous year. Like previous editions, I'll go over the top ten rounds and add any interesting picks.
Keep this in mind. Of the 51 players selected in 2008, only two remain with the Braves organization.
1. Brett DeVall, LHP, Niceville High School (Niceville, FL)
It was supposed to be a good fit. Crafty left-hander with surprising velocity from the southeast goes to the Braves. This is how successful pairings begin. However, DeVall would only appear in 33 games with the organization before being cut before the beginning of the 2011 season. What went wrong?
Injuries definitely played a role. He made just 10 starts with Rome in 2009 before his season ended in June. The following year, his final with the organization, he got a late start to the year and made only 19 starts with pretty forgetful numbers. But it was more than just injuries from what I read. He showed up overweight and apparently refused to undergo Tommy John surgery even after being advised by Dr. James Andrews that he needed it. And according to his twitter account, he's a douchenozzle. Last October 26th, he tweeted, "not many more things in baseball i enjoy more then asian relievers shitting the bed." Wow, really? Suffice it to say, since the Braves cut him, his phone hasn't been ringing off the hook.
2. Tyler Stovall, LHP, Hokes Bluff High School (Gadsden, AL)
Back-to-back high school lefties to open the draft, back-to-back busts. Stovall could run it up to the low 90's with a good curveball and again, it looked like a good fit. Stovall was a two-sport star signed on to play baseball at Auburn when he signed with the Braves. However, his production was minimal and he was switched to the bullpen, which is hardly a good sign for a second rounder out of high school. The Braves cut Stovall after the 2011 season and after a stop (but no appearances) with the Royals and a year in independent ball, where he didn't fair too well, Stovall was out of baseball. But the story doesn't end there. Like 2011 8th rounder Kurt Fleming, Stovall has found second life in the SEC as a football player as a walk-on backup punter and holder for the Auburn Tigers. Bonus...as part of his original contract with the Braves, Atlanta is on the hook for 8 semesters. Shrewd.
2. Zeke Spruill, RHP, Kell High School (Marietta, GA)
While the first two picks of 2008 washed out, Spruill has persevered, even as the Braves cut bait with the former Georgia product. Spruill continues the string of crafty guys former scouting director Roy Clark loved to grab early and often. Only thing about craftiness is that it's not very exciting and rarely do the players ever contribute in a meaningful way in the majors. Spruill climbed the ladder steadily, though he was never a big prospect. Last offseason, he was added to the Justin Upton trade and appeared in six games with the Diamondbacks last year, including two starts. He also faced the Braves last June 28th out of the pen and gave up an RBI single to Reed Johnson.
3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Wallace State Community College
Oh, you've heard of him? The best reliever in the game has always been a reliever. Atlanta originally took him in the 33rd round in 2008, but could not sign the Lee High School alum. Fortunately, they got a second chance and got the young reliever and it did not take long for Kimbrel to rocket up the charts. In 151 minor league innings, he struck out 242. He had one potential problem to a successful career in the majors and that was his control. He walked nearly 6 per nine innings during his minor league career, but it all clicked for him in 2011 as he took home the Rookie of the Year award and sported a 3.7 BB/9 rate.
4. Braeden Schlehuber, C, College of Southern Nevada
Breaden was the first Random Prospect of the Day back in June of 2012. Unfortunately, he received zero boost from the Walk-Off Walk bump and has been classified as an organizational catcher since signing. He's currently in camp as a non-roster invitee, but even if Gerald Laird wasn't with the Braves, Schlehuber was headed back to the minors regardless of what he does this spring. Since signing, he has hit .224 with a .622 OPS and has rarely been a team's primary catcher. Over the last three seasons, he has played with both Lynchburg and Mississippi. Chances are he'll be back in Mississippi.
5. Jacob Thompson, RHP, University of Virginia
What was with Roy Clark's obsession with soft-tossing guys? Add Thompson to the crowd and also add him to the list of former Braves. Thompson was never that good, but he steadily climbed the ladder to appear with the Gwinnett Braves in 2011. The results were not that good and Thompson surprisingly retired at age-24, a day after giving up seven runs in 2.1 ING to Toledo on May 14th. I saw Thompson pitch for Myrtle Beach against the then-Pirates-affiliated Lynchburg Hillcats and he looked every bit of a low-ceiling guy.
6. Adam Milligan, OF, Walters State Community College
Milligan was drafted three times by the Braves before the native of Tennessee finally signed. The Braves hoped that left-handed hitting imposing figure would add some more raw power. However, Milligan could never stay healthy despite some relatively solid numbers along the way. He struggled in 2012 with Mississippi and was banished to Lynchburg, where he never could turn it on and before last season, the Braves parted ways with Milligan. A shame he was never able to stay healthy.
7. Paul Clemens, RHP, Louisburg College
One of the most ridiculous numbers last season came from Clemens, who split time with Oklahoma City and Houston. With the Astros, he gave up 16 HR in 73.1 ING. To put that into different terms, for every nine innings Clemens could throw, he would give up 2 homers. That ratio tied him with Joe Blanton and tying Blanton with anything is a bad sign. Clemens has been with the Astros since the trading deadline in 2011 when the Braves acquired Michael Bourn. That was also his first year as a full-time starter after splitting time between starting and relieving before that. He's never been better than decent.
8. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP, Seminole Community College
Also going to the Astros in the Bourn trade was Oberholtzer, a stocky left-hander who is, as the theme goes, crafty. Oberholtzer was a fast-riser and was already in AA-Mississippi and holding his own at the time of the trade. He made it to the majors last season and looked like he belonged. He picked up a pair of complete games, including a four-hitter against the Mariners last September 1st. Oberholtzer could be a late bloomer, but I doubt he's much more than a bottom-of-the-rotation cog.
9. Kyle Farrell, RHP, Western Nevada College
139 innings. That's all the Braves needed to see from Farrell to grow disinterested with keeping the 6'4" righty in the system past 2010. He never made it out of rookie ball and hasn't played organized ball since.
10. J.J. Hoover, RHP, Calhoun Community College
Blessed with a heavy fastball, Hoover displayed great strikeout numbers as he climbed the minor league ladder, rarely staying in one place for very long. Hoover was eventually transitioned to the bullpen in 2011 and looked like he could be a sleeper for the 2012 roster, but instead of making the roster, he was dealt to the Reds for Juan Francisco. It didn't take him long to get to the majors from there and he has been a steady reliever in the pen for the Reds.
Other interesting picks...
-Former Georgia Tech pitcher and 17th rounder pitcher Mark Pope didn't sign with the Braves and was eventually drafted again by the Padres, where he played for two seasons before getting cut. The Braves tried their luck with Pope and he opened 2013 with the Hillcats, but was released a month later.
-A pair of picks were used on guys who didn't sign and eventually were drafted by the Nationals. 16th rounder OF Billy Burns and 27th rounder infielder Anthony Rendon.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Contract Extensions Galore!
I took a few weeks off to welcome our daughter Riley into the world and the Braves suddenly become the Rays. How strange. John Hart joined the Braves front office this offseason so that may have something to do with it. Hart's Cleveland Indians famously gave out a number of extensions to their young stars during the mid-90's.
Jason Heyward - 2 years, $13.3 million
There was talk awhile back that Heyward had refused an offer north of $100M from the Braves. Whether that has much truth to it or not, inking Heyward for the next two years and buying out the rest of his arbitration was a good step between the player and organization that were not far off during their arbitration negotiations over a one-year contract. Frank Wren's philosophy is that the Braves will continue to negotiate after the file-and-trail deadline, but only multiple year offers will be considered. Hence, Heyward's two year pact.
As far as value goes, the Braves get plenty of that. Over his first four seasons, Heyward has averaged over 4 fWAR per season. Now, of course, there have been some great years (2012's 6.4 fWAR) and some not-so-great years (2011's 2.0 fWAR) season, but Heyward has clearly shown himself to be a valuable performer who combines speed and defense with a bat that is plenty capable. However, his bat does need work if he's going to be rightfully considered a top ten player at his position (outfield, not just right field). His career .349 wOBA ranks only 30th since the beginning of 2010 among MLB outfielders while his fWAR is tenth so his bat isn't all the way there yet.
The 24 year-old is still young enough to believe he could explode offensively. Doing so may take him out of the Braves future plans. Regardless, if he can avoid the freak injury and perform like he did after moving to leadoff last season, Heyward could be on the verge of a special season. Buying out his last arbitration season could make that production bargain-level prices.
Freddie Freeman - 8 years, $135 million
There are two schools of thoughts that I have witnessed with this deal. The first questions if Freeman was worth the investment. The second, and it appears to be the most noticeable one, is that "OMG, the Braves paid big money! Horray! I'm so happy that my team locked up a guy for nine figures!" When you subscribe to this thought process, you lose context in what the deal actually means as far as the player goes and focus more on what this means about the Braves. I can understand that. For an organization that has saw Brian McCann and Tim Hudson leave this offseason after not being willing to pay for Martin Prado's extension last offseason, the idea that the Braves are not only willing, but actually extending their young players is exciting.
But let's get back to the player. Freeman broke through last season with a 4.8 fWAR, .387 wOBA, and a .319/.396/.501 slash. While all of those numbers are very impressive, they don't touch the National League 1B royalty of Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt. Atlanta is banking on Freeman not just repeating his 2013 production, but expanding on it. Otherwise, the last four years of this deal (which includes 64%, or $86M) look like a monster overpay. I'm not saying Braves fans should be concerned, but this deal carries considerable risk before you even discuss the injury factor (see Ryan Howard).
All of that said, I do expect Freeman to improve. A month younger than Heyward, Freeman is still a few years from entering what we should expect to be his prime. The Braves looked at Freeman's ebay page and bought now rather than wait to see how things looked later. They paid richly for Freeman's youth, work ethic, and breakthrough season. It's up to Freeman to make that decision look good.
Julio Teheran - 6 years, $32.4M with a 7th year option for $12M
If the Braves were banking on Freeman's youth, they were absolutely going all-in for Teheran's. Normally, I would look at a contract that goes beyond four years with a pitcher as needless and a mistake. However, considering the Braves simply bought out his arbitration years with one free agent year (plus the possibility of a second), I think the effort here was pretty reasonable.
Again, there is plenty of risk. At least with waiting until arbitration, you can make sure you want to offer the player a deal the next season. What if the Braves had given Tommy Hanson or Jair Jurrjens an extension based on the first year? However, remember that Teheran was a monster prospect. Just 23 years-old, Teheran was tremendous for the Braves and he didn't even have a feel for what people consider his best pitch, his changeup. Add a devestating changeup to the argument and suddenly, Teheran goes from a pretty good pitcher to one of the game's best.
Teheran will likely only get better from here. He showed impeccable control last season (2.18 BB/9, 3.78 K/BB), an ability to miss bats, and a fearless presence on the mound (ain't that right, Bryce?). Early comparisons linked Teheran with Pedro Martinez. As Braves fans, we can only hope the comparison is justified. It feels good to know that for the next six years, possibly seven, Teheran will be terrorizing the NL East as a Brave.
Jason Heyward - 2 years, $13.3 million
There was talk awhile back that Heyward had refused an offer north of $100M from the Braves. Whether that has much truth to it or not, inking Heyward for the next two years and buying out the rest of his arbitration was a good step between the player and organization that were not far off during their arbitration negotiations over a one-year contract. Frank Wren's philosophy is that the Braves will continue to negotiate after the file-and-trail deadline, but only multiple year offers will be considered. Hence, Heyward's two year pact.
As far as value goes, the Braves get plenty of that. Over his first four seasons, Heyward has averaged over 4 fWAR per season. Now, of course, there have been some great years (2012's 6.4 fWAR) and some not-so-great years (2011's 2.0 fWAR) season, but Heyward has clearly shown himself to be a valuable performer who combines speed and defense with a bat that is plenty capable. However, his bat does need work if he's going to be rightfully considered a top ten player at his position (outfield, not just right field). His career .349 wOBA ranks only 30th since the beginning of 2010 among MLB outfielders while his fWAR is tenth so his bat isn't all the way there yet.
The 24 year-old is still young enough to believe he could explode offensively. Doing so may take him out of the Braves future plans. Regardless, if he can avoid the freak injury and perform like he did after moving to leadoff last season, Heyward could be on the verge of a special season. Buying out his last arbitration season could make that production bargain-level prices.
Freddie Freeman - 8 years, $135 million
There are two schools of thoughts that I have witnessed with this deal. The first questions if Freeman was worth the investment. The second, and it appears to be the most noticeable one, is that "OMG, the Braves paid big money! Horray! I'm so happy that my team locked up a guy for nine figures!" When you subscribe to this thought process, you lose context in what the deal actually means as far as the player goes and focus more on what this means about the Braves. I can understand that. For an organization that has saw Brian McCann and Tim Hudson leave this offseason after not being willing to pay for Martin Prado's extension last offseason, the idea that the Braves are not only willing, but actually extending their young players is exciting.
But let's get back to the player. Freeman broke through last season with a 4.8 fWAR, .387 wOBA, and a .319/.396/.501 slash. While all of those numbers are very impressive, they don't touch the National League 1B royalty of Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt. Atlanta is banking on Freeman not just repeating his 2013 production, but expanding on it. Otherwise, the last four years of this deal (which includes 64%, or $86M) look like a monster overpay. I'm not saying Braves fans should be concerned, but this deal carries considerable risk before you even discuss the injury factor (see Ryan Howard).
All of that said, I do expect Freeman to improve. A month younger than Heyward, Freeman is still a few years from entering what we should expect to be his prime. The Braves looked at Freeman's ebay page and bought now rather than wait to see how things looked later. They paid richly for Freeman's youth, work ethic, and breakthrough season. It's up to Freeman to make that decision look good.
Julio Teheran - 6 years, $32.4M with a 7th year option for $12M
If the Braves were banking on Freeman's youth, they were absolutely going all-in for Teheran's. Normally, I would look at a contract that goes beyond four years with a pitcher as needless and a mistake. However, considering the Braves simply bought out his arbitration years with one free agent year (plus the possibility of a second), I think the effort here was pretty reasonable.
Again, there is plenty of risk. At least with waiting until arbitration, you can make sure you want to offer the player a deal the next season. What if the Braves had given Tommy Hanson or Jair Jurrjens an extension based on the first year? However, remember that Teheran was a monster prospect. Just 23 years-old, Teheran was tremendous for the Braves and he didn't even have a feel for what people consider his best pitch, his changeup. Add a devestating changeup to the argument and suddenly, Teheran goes from a pretty good pitcher to one of the game's best.
Teheran will likely only get better from here. He showed impeccable control last season (2.18 BB/9, 3.78 K/BB), an ability to miss bats, and a fearless presence on the mound (ain't that right, Bryce?). Early comparisons linked Teheran with Pedro Martinez. As Braves fans, we can only hope the comparison is justified. It feels good to know that for the next six years, possibly seven, Teheran will be terrorizing the NL East as a Brave.
Friday, January 24, 2014
The Golden Phils
How old are the Phillies?
Their young star Domonic Brown turned 26 last September. He's about a week and a half younger than Braves veteran Justin Upton. Other younger veterans on the Braves include Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Minor.
The prized new addition of the Phillies is Bobby Abreu. He made it to the bigs the year after Chipper Jones's first full season in the majors. Alex Wood was five years old. Abreu's first major league hit came against the New York Mets' Bobby Jones. Abreu had pinch hit for Todd Jones. There was no relation between the two Jones, nor with Chipper Jones. Derek Bell, who famously originated Operation Shutdown, had a double against Bobby Jones, one of just four hits Jones gave up in a 119-pitch shutout.
Wil Nieves, who the Phillies had to hunt down in order to find a backup catcher older than their starter, was a rookie when he caught Bobby Jones. I link to baseball-reference and I'm fairly sure Bobby Jones has been mentioned more in this blog than he has been mentioned in the last five years. In 2002, Nieves also caught Trevor Hoffman, former Braves Steve Reed and Alan Embree, and a completely different Bobby Jones. Nieves even played on a team that Ron Gant played 102 games for.
It is very difficult to lose 37 year-old Michael Young and get older. But the Phillies, who are estimated to spend close to $160M this season, are likely to accomplish this. In addition to Abreu, the Phillies signed 36 year-old Marlon Byrd to a two-year contract and brought 33 year-old Roberto Hernandez aboard for the ride.
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't played since 1998. That was Abreu's first season with the Phillies. Abreu is the only player from that team still playing.
In his first full season, Jimmy Rollins was a young star on a team that included youngins' such as Johnny Estrada and Pat Burrell.
Jayson Werth is younger than 2/3's of the outfield that he left before 2011. Werth, who will turn 35 in May, would also be younger than three other expected starters from the eight that will make up the starting squad and is only a half-year older than Ryan Howard, who is due at least $85M over the next three seasons.
Their young gun, Cole Hamels, is already 30. Gavin Floyd is the only starter the Braves have who has already celebrated his 30th birthday or will during this season. In fact, the Braves's current 30 year-olds include a second baseman who might not even start this season, a catcher/outfielder who is being counted on to provide a bat off the bench, a backup catcher, and the aforementioned Floyd. Oh, and Jose Constanza, but we don't count him.
In the bullpen, the Phillies have, you guessed it, a good deal of experience. Amazingly, it's very young for this team despite employing 33 year-old Jonathan Papelbon and 35 year-old Mike Adams. New Phillie Chad Gaudin got a minor league deal and might be the fifth starter, but if not, the 31 year-old likely has a job by just being old in the Phillies pen. Johnny Venters is the old guy for the Braves bullpen. Old Faithful turns 29 on March 20th. Anthony Varvaro is already 29, but since Fredi Gonzalez likes to forget about him, I figured I might as well ignore that tidbit.
The Phillies are on the hook for $112M in 2014 already, including three players making at least $22.5M. They were also in on Masahiro Tanaka before the pitcher signed with the Yankees. According to Amaro, they weren't willing to give him anything beyond five years despite giving Carlos Ruiz a new three-year contract with a fourth-year option. Tanaka will be 25 all next season and would be younger than almost every expected member of the Phillies next season. But, he was too much of a chance to go beyond five years with.
The Phillies will spend $60M more than the Braves next season. With that money, the Braves could have brought back Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, and Eric O'Flaherty and got into the Robinson Cano bidding. That is pretty crazy when you consider how much money the Phillies will be spending and for how little. Last year, former Phillie Werth said the biggest challenger to the Nationals repeating in 2013 was the Phillies. A year later, you start to think that the Phillies might not even be the Nationals' biggest challenger to second place. Ruben Amaro Jr. was basically handed the job in Philly. Maybe they might want to consider an actual general manager next.
Their young star Domonic Brown turned 26 last September. He's about a week and a half younger than Braves veteran Justin Upton. Other younger veterans on the Braves include Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Minor.
The prized new addition of the Phillies is Bobby Abreu. He made it to the bigs the year after Chipper Jones's first full season in the majors. Alex Wood was five years old. Abreu's first major league hit came against the New York Mets' Bobby Jones. Abreu had pinch hit for Todd Jones. There was no relation between the two Jones, nor with Chipper Jones. Derek Bell, who famously originated Operation Shutdown, had a double against Bobby Jones, one of just four hits Jones gave up in a 119-pitch shutout.
Wil Nieves, who the Phillies had to hunt down in order to find a backup catcher older than their starter, was a rookie when he caught Bobby Jones. I link to baseball-reference and I'm fairly sure Bobby Jones has been mentioned more in this blog than he has been mentioned in the last five years. In 2002, Nieves also caught Trevor Hoffman, former Braves Steve Reed and Alan Embree, and a completely different Bobby Jones. Nieves even played on a team that Ron Gant played 102 games for.
It is very difficult to lose 37 year-old Michael Young and get older. But the Phillies, who are estimated to spend close to $160M this season, are likely to accomplish this. In addition to Abreu, the Phillies signed 36 year-old Marlon Byrd to a two-year contract and brought 33 year-old Roberto Hernandez aboard for the ride.
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't played since 1998. That was Abreu's first season with the Phillies. Abreu is the only player from that team still playing.
In his first full season, Jimmy Rollins was a young star on a team that included youngins' such as Johnny Estrada and Pat Burrell.
Jayson Werth is younger than 2/3's of the outfield that he left before 2011. Werth, who will turn 35 in May, would also be younger than three other expected starters from the eight that will make up the starting squad and is only a half-year older than Ryan Howard, who is due at least $85M over the next three seasons.
Their young gun, Cole Hamels, is already 30. Gavin Floyd is the only starter the Braves have who has already celebrated his 30th birthday or will during this season. In fact, the Braves's current 30 year-olds include a second baseman who might not even start this season, a catcher/outfielder who is being counted on to provide a bat off the bench, a backup catcher, and the aforementioned Floyd. Oh, and Jose Constanza, but we don't count him.
In the bullpen, the Phillies have, you guessed it, a good deal of experience. Amazingly, it's very young for this team despite employing 33 year-old Jonathan Papelbon and 35 year-old Mike Adams. New Phillie Chad Gaudin got a minor league deal and might be the fifth starter, but if not, the 31 year-old likely has a job by just being old in the Phillies pen. Johnny Venters is the old guy for the Braves bullpen. Old Faithful turns 29 on March 20th. Anthony Varvaro is already 29, but since Fredi Gonzalez likes to forget about him, I figured I might as well ignore that tidbit.
The Phillies are on the hook for $112M in 2014 already, including three players making at least $22.5M. They were also in on Masahiro Tanaka before the pitcher signed with the Yankees. According to Amaro, they weren't willing to give him anything beyond five years despite giving Carlos Ruiz a new three-year contract with a fourth-year option. Tanaka will be 25 all next season and would be younger than almost every expected member of the Phillies next season. But, he was too much of a chance to go beyond five years with.
The Phillies will spend $60M more than the Braves next season. With that money, the Braves could have brought back Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, and Eric O'Flaherty and got into the Robinson Cano bidding. That is pretty crazy when you consider how much money the Phillies will be spending and for how little. Last year, former Phillie Werth said the biggest challenger to the Nationals repeating in 2013 was the Phillies. A year later, you start to think that the Phillies might not even be the Nationals' biggest challenger to second place. Ruben Amaro Jr. was basically handed the job in Philly. Maybe they might want to consider an actual general manager next.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
The Braves Are Top Five In a Lot of Categories
It's been a decent season for the Atlanta Braves.
They have the best ERA in baseball at 3.18, the lowest mark since 2002 when they had a 3.13 ERA. Atlanta leads the National League in homers and it's a ten-homer edge over the Cubs. With 161 homers, they already have twelve more than last season. Now, sure, for the third consecutive season, they will probably set the franchise mark in strikeouts in a single season. Regardless, they are fourth in the National League in R/G with 4.34.
But those are commonly discussed on TV, the radio, and other blogs - especially the strikeout part. One more category surprised me today.
The Braves are fifth in the majors in positive difference in attendance per game compared to 2012. Last season, the Braves averaged 29,071 per game through September 6th. The league average was 30,984. While the league average has fell to 30,558 this season, the Braves are averaging 31,399. Now, that mark is only 16th in the game so it can't be celebrated all that much. But the difference in +2,328 is the fifth most in the majors on a per-game basis. Historically, Atlanta's attendance wains when school starts back up so attendance could suffer for the next few weeks, but while a majority of major league teams are attracting less people than they did last season, the Braves are in select company. Only the Blue Jays, Orioles, Dodgers, and Nationals have a better difference.
Now, that probably doesn't mean that the payroll will see any bump based on attendance figures and trends. It's still good news if it's anything, though. Atlanta hasn't averaged 31,000 people since 2008 and was under 30,000 in three of the last four years. Now, being in first place helps, but Atlanta was competitive regardless over the past few years.
Atlanta is an exciting team. There is a lot of exciting youth on this team with Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, and Alex Wood. After a worrisome lost year at Gwinnett, Julio Teheran has became the force prospect "experts" believed he would be. Brian McCann would like you to know that he would take Mike Minor against any other pitcher in the game. And of course there's that whole bear guy. Evan Gattis is such a fan favorite because he helps prove the whole adage. You can do anything if you set your mind to it.
Hopefully, the attendance stays above 31,000 for the rest of the season and maybe next year, following a World Title run, we'll see a nice attendance boom to go with it.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
So...Braves fans...about Friday night...
In my last post, I bashed the Nationals for their refusal to shut up. It was the right thing to do because even after watching the Braves open over a dozen-game lead and even after failing to get to .500 and stay there, Nationals players and their manager continued to spout off.
In the first game of an anticlimactic three-game series, the Braves won 3-2 in ten innings. Once again, Justin Upton was the guy the Braves were hoping for when they acquired him this offseason. When the count got to 1-2, I IM’d my friend and said “Upton's going to walk-off here.” I really should do that more often.
But the result of the game will probably be glossed over by sports media outlets. Instead, two plate appearances involving Bryce Harper become the story of the game. You might remember a week or so ago when Harper homered off Julio Teheran and there was a lot of discussion over slow homerun trots. Why would a ridiculous subject become a debatable point? Because, according to the theory of a great many bloggers and analysts, Teheran hit Harper later in the game for “admiring” his homerun too much.
Whether it was intentional or not is fully up for debate. Teheran, who often has wonderful control, seemed to have issues hitting his spots during the game. In addition, Teheran throws inside. He attempts to own the inside corner and is not shy about it. He’s hit 12 batters on the year, the most in the National League, and three different times, he’s hit two batters in a single game. That’s not to say that there is no possibility that he was trying to send a message to Harper. For the record, Teheran denies it and I am inclined to believe him.
Regardless, Nationals fans and possibly the worst announcers in baseball (Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santangelo) were convinced that Teheran was aiming for Harper. True or not, don’t really care. Short of Teheran coming out and saying “yeah, I was going after him,” no one who seems so sure of Teheran’s intentions actually knows.
Move forward to this evening. Harper doubled, but was stranded early as Alex Wood pitched into and out of a little trouble. In his next at-bat, a breaking pitch never broke and softly struck Harper. The Braves fans cheered. Loudly. Ridiculously loudly. Now, it’s not like Harper was injured or anything. It was just a knuckle-curve that got away from Wood. And truly, I can forgive the fans cheering this one because it was so softly thrown and even Harper could laugh about it.
In the eighth, with Wood gone, Ryan Zimmerman doubled off Luis Avilan. For so long, Avilan has been a shut down guy coming out of the bullpen, but he was struggling with his location and crossed up his defense, which was playing Zimmerman to go opposite field. There was two outs and the Braves were trying to get a 2-1 lead to Craig Kimbrel. Harper stepped in. It was the matchup the Braves wanted. Avilan handles lefties so well (.148/.216/.173). You don’t want to face Jayson Werth with a chance to tie or put the Nationals ahead.
Instead, Avilan’s pitch comes in and hits Harper in the shoulder/upper back area. Avilan looked very disappointed by the pitch. You cannot convince me that Avilan intentionally hit Harper. As the second-year player said after the game, “Anybody who thinks I was throwing at (Harper) on purpose doesn’t know the game of baseball.” There’s just no way Avilan intentionally tried to put the go-ahead runner on, a runner capable of scoring with any gapper. His job is to strand runners, not put them on base.
But that wasn’t the bad thing. Atlanta fans, as Harper grimaced outside the box, cheered loudly. The reception grew in volume as Fredi Gonzalez changed pitchers, bringing in Luis Ayala. A sort-of standing ovation was given to Avilan as he left the field. It was an abysmal showing from the often mute fans. Don’t get me wrong, I take pleasure in Harper’s failures. When he swings-and-misses on a Kimbrel fastball or gets bastardized on a changeup from Wood, I smile and pump my fist. I yell “sit down, bro” at my TV. Fuck Bryce Harper.
To cheer after he gets hit, though? Classless. It’s not a proportional response. He talks shit and you want him to fail to live up to that. You heckle him and throw his words back him. Hey, is this shit over yet, Bryce? Are you still fighting to the every last man? However, you don’t want him to get hit. Especially the second time, which put the go-ahead runner on base and left Gonzalez with the choice between what appeared to be an ineffective Avilan vs. Werth or the low leverage Ayala against Werth. The latter resulted in a game-tying base hit.
Much like the trash that was thrown on the field, it was a bad moment for Braves fans. Even more, fans took to twitter to defend the actions of those at Turner Field. Seriously, we can call our own fans on something and in this case, it was an awful show of sportsmanship…a classless display of fandom…and a dark and indefensible moment for Braves fans.
Still…that Upton homer was pretty sweet.
In the first game of an anticlimactic three-game series, the Braves won 3-2 in ten innings. Once again, Justin Upton was the guy the Braves were hoping for when they acquired him this offseason. When the count got to 1-2, I IM’d my friend and said “Upton's going to walk-off here.” I really should do that more often.
But the result of the game will probably be glossed over by sports media outlets. Instead, two plate appearances involving Bryce Harper become the story of the game. You might remember a week or so ago when Harper homered off Julio Teheran and there was a lot of discussion over slow homerun trots. Why would a ridiculous subject become a debatable point? Because, according to the theory of a great many bloggers and analysts, Teheran hit Harper later in the game for “admiring” his homerun too much.
Whether it was intentional or not is fully up for debate. Teheran, who often has wonderful control, seemed to have issues hitting his spots during the game. In addition, Teheran throws inside. He attempts to own the inside corner and is not shy about it. He’s hit 12 batters on the year, the most in the National League, and three different times, he’s hit two batters in a single game. That’s not to say that there is no possibility that he was trying to send a message to Harper. For the record, Teheran denies it and I am inclined to believe him.
Regardless, Nationals fans and possibly the worst announcers in baseball (Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santangelo) were convinced that Teheran was aiming for Harper. True or not, don’t really care. Short of Teheran coming out and saying “yeah, I was going after him,” no one who seems so sure of Teheran’s intentions actually knows.
Move forward to this evening. Harper doubled, but was stranded early as Alex Wood pitched into and out of a little trouble. In his next at-bat, a breaking pitch never broke and softly struck Harper. The Braves fans cheered. Loudly. Ridiculously loudly. Now, it’s not like Harper was injured or anything. It was just a knuckle-curve that got away from Wood. And truly, I can forgive the fans cheering this one because it was so softly thrown and even Harper could laugh about it.
In the eighth, with Wood gone, Ryan Zimmerman doubled off Luis Avilan. For so long, Avilan has been a shut down guy coming out of the bullpen, but he was struggling with his location and crossed up his defense, which was playing Zimmerman to go opposite field. There was two outs and the Braves were trying to get a 2-1 lead to Craig Kimbrel. Harper stepped in. It was the matchup the Braves wanted. Avilan handles lefties so well (.148/.216/.173). You don’t want to face Jayson Werth with a chance to tie or put the Nationals ahead.
Instead, Avilan’s pitch comes in and hits Harper in the shoulder/upper back area. Avilan looked very disappointed by the pitch. You cannot convince me that Avilan intentionally hit Harper. As the second-year player said after the game, “Anybody who thinks I was throwing at (Harper) on purpose doesn’t know the game of baseball.” There’s just no way Avilan intentionally tried to put the go-ahead runner on, a runner capable of scoring with any gapper. His job is to strand runners, not put them on base.
But that wasn’t the bad thing. Atlanta fans, as Harper grimaced outside the box, cheered loudly. The reception grew in volume as Fredi Gonzalez changed pitchers, bringing in Luis Ayala. A sort-of standing ovation was given to Avilan as he left the field. It was an abysmal showing from the often mute fans. Don’t get me wrong, I take pleasure in Harper’s failures. When he swings-and-misses on a Kimbrel fastball or gets bastardized on a changeup from Wood, I smile and pump my fist. I yell “sit down, bro” at my TV. Fuck Bryce Harper.
To cheer after he gets hit, though? Classless. It’s not a proportional response. He talks shit and you want him to fail to live up to that. You heckle him and throw his words back him. Hey, is this shit over yet, Bryce? Are you still fighting to the every last man? However, you don’t want him to get hit. Especially the second time, which put the go-ahead runner on base and left Gonzalez with the choice between what appeared to be an ineffective Avilan vs. Werth or the low leverage Ayala against Werth. The latter resulted in a game-tying base hit.
Much like the trash that was thrown on the field, it was a bad moment for Braves fans. Even more, fans took to twitter to defend the actions of those at Turner Field. Seriously, we can call our own fans on something and in this case, it was an awful show of sportsmanship…a classless display of fandom…and a dark and indefensible moment for Braves fans.
Still…that Upton homer was pretty sweet.
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