Transaction Tuesday: Newcomb, Medlen, Pike, Minter

Lots of moves to report this week in this recap. A top prospect is promoted to the bigs, a former prospect works his way up the ladder, and a non-prospect continues his wayward journey to never spend too much time in one city. Hope you enjoy!

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between June 6 and June 12. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta

Hursh (3rd across) | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Recalled from Mississippi, Optioned to Gwinnett, and Recalled Again: Jason Hursh...Don't look now, but Hursh has added some velocity to his heater and hit 96.18 mph last week. If he can throw that heavy fastball with that kind of velocity and location, the Braves may have themselves a prospect after all. He was dealing for both Mississippi and Gwinnett this year. At 25, it's time to see if he can stick in the majors for good now.

Recalled: Lane Adams...Most players are kind of boring to follow on twitter. They retweet generic inspirational posts, reach out to their hometown buddies, or say "let's go get 'em" each time there is a game. Lane Adams, though, is a joy to follow. Recent tweets include him taking someone to task for being a "true fan," his endorsement of the Minute Maid soft-frozen lemonade (which he says is the "bomb dot com"), and advising women to stop bedazzling their capris. His twitter feed was major league quality long before he was brought back to the majors.

Recalled and Optioned to Gwinnett: Matt Wisler...Hitters in general show improvement the more times in a game they see a pitcher so I don't want you to fall in love with these splits, but opposing OPS from the first appearance against Wisler in a game to the fourth appearance ranges from .741 to .795 to .837 to .925. He's got a good slider and likely would add a few ticks to his heater (currently in the 93 mph range) if he was in a relief role. Is it time to consider that?

Called Up: Sean Newcomb (#2)...I wrote a blurb about Newcomb yesterday so I don't want to repeat myself much. What I didn't mention yesterday is the news that dropped about Newcomb. He'll get at least a second start. Are you hyped yet?

DL'd: Bartolo Colon (left oblique/general awfulness)...Colon's greatest contribution to the Braves this year has been hitting the DL so Newcomb could be promoted. That's just a sad fact. He has a 5.09 FIP, his highest walk rate since Barrack Obama's first year, and an xFIP of 4.83 - which would be a new high (the stat goes back to 2002). But hey, we got plenty of fat jokes along the way.

DL'd: Adonis Garcia (left finger/general awfulness)...The nearly everyday third baseman (for reasons) is back on the DL for a second time this season. He has a .282 OBP this year which is just 20 points below his career average so...yay for a regression to the norm at some point...

DL'd: Eric O'Flaherty (left shoulder/general awfulness)...My daughter was given a gobstopper and immediately tried to bite it down and crunch it. I told her that she needs to suck it first because it's too hard to bite. She said she understood and wouldn't ya know it? She kept trying to bite it. I took it away from her because she wouldn't eat the candy properly. At some point, John Coppolella has to take away O'Flaherty from Brian Snitker because Snit won't use O'Flaherty properly. Over the last two seasons, lefties have a .292 wOBA against O'Flaherty with a 20% strikeout rate. Righties? They brutalize O'Flaherty to the tune of a .461 wOBA (not a typo). Yet, he's faced just one more lefty than he has a righty during that time. This season, he's faced five more righties than he has lefties! Coppy, take the gobstopper away from Snit. He's just going to use it wrong.

Released: Emilio Bonifacio...Could this be the end of the Braves/Boni relationship? One can hope. You have to give it up for Boni's consistency, though. In 2015, in 82 PA, he had a -0.7 fWAR. Last year, in 43 PA, he had -0.6 fWAR. This season, in 44 PA, he had a -0.6 fWAR. Only nine major league players were able to amass more than -1.5 fWAR over the last three years and to his credit, nobody did it more efficiently than Bonifacio (just 169 PA). It took Casey McGehee nearly 200 more PA to be that inept.

Gwinnett

Gaylor | Barry College

Promoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...This is actually Gaylor's second assignment in Gwinnett - he played there one game last year. Gaylor has some fans in the front office who keep promoting him despite some fairly un-noteworthy numbers. He was hitting just .118 in 13 games before joining Gwinnett after all and has a career .646 OPS, but the undrafted outfielder out of Berry College continues to climb the ladder.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kris Medlen...The comeback continued into its third different assignment as Medlen graduates from Florida and Mississippi on his way back to the majors. His first start in Gwinnett since 2012 wasn't great, though he did strike out six, a season high. The pinpoint control just isn't there yet and he'll need a bit more time, but the 31-year-old has looked strong in his five outings.

Activated: Aaron Blair...Following a short stint on the DL, Blair returned last week to make two starts. One was pretty ugly, but his Sunday start against Charlotte was superb with 6.1 innings, four hits, no runs, two walks, and five K's. Blair's control has been suspect all season and a pitcher with his limitations needs to be able to hit his spots much better.

Activated: Braeden Schlehuber...A fourth rounder in Frank Wren's first draft class (2008), Schlehuber is an organizational guy who I would be shocked to see not get a coaching assignment in the organization once he retires. He's been on the DL nearly as many times (three) this year as games played (four). On the plus side, on May 31, he hit his first home run since 2014.

Temporary Inactive: Caleb Dirks (#34)...I'm not real sure what this is about for Dirks. Likely, this is related to paternity leave, but in general, a temporary inactive placement is just a way to say the player in on paid leave. A placement like this requires at least three days away from the team. Dirks was placed on the list last Friday. He's struck out 40 over 34.1 innings compared to just ten unintentional walks. He has matched his career-high by surrendering three home runs and has an FIP of 3.29.

Released: Mel Rojas Jr....Rojas was a big minor league pickup last year and logged significant time this spring with the Dominican Republic squad this spring for the World Baseball Classic. That potentially was to his detriment as he missed out on an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Braves bench with Bonifacio. After a slow start with Gwinnett, Rojas was ready to try his luck elsewhere and asked for his release to sign with a team in Korea. The Braves obliged and Rojas will have a shot to make some good money in Asia.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Pike...Otherwise known as the other guy the Braves got in the Alex Jackson trade, Pike left a minor league system that does some questionable things to their arms to a system that gives more reasonable assignments and rewards performance. Lucky for all of us. Pike's improvement with his control that really began last year continued for Florida and he upped his groundball rate in the process. He carried a 2.94 FIP over nearly 70 innings with the Fire Frogs before the promotion. Pike was a former #126th overall pick so he's got some talent. If the Braves are able to develop that talent into an exciting prospect, they will show once more that sometimes, it's not the prospects who disappoint, but the scouting-and-development team that doesn't bring out the best of the prospect.

Parsons | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Activated with Gwinnett from extended spring, demoted from Gwinnett: Wes Parsons...For us that have watched Parsons struggle to stay on the mound, his promotion to Gwinnett was a nice moment. However, he got bashed around in his 8.1 innings and will return back to Mississippi, where he was impressive over 30.1 innings.

Activated: Bradley Roney (#38)...Roney has spent much of the season sidelined. He's only appeared in eleven games. His walk rate continues to be an issue (14% at Mississippi), which negates his very impressive strikeout numbers. Roney pitched 27 games in Gwinnett last season and has closer stuff. Will he ever hit the strike zone enough, though?

DL'd: Matt Withrow (#29)...After a tremendous beginning to the season, Withrow's numbers had really come back to Earth over his last four starts (18 ER in 17.1 ING with 10 BB and 15 K's). He now heads to the DL for the first time for the 2015 sixth rounder. The Texas Tech alum has a nice fastball with good sink, but doesn't get many grounders out of it. Withrow has a classic fastball/slider combination that might serve him well as a reliever or the Braves might keep him as a starter as he tries to develop his offspeed stuff because that makes him a better trade asset.

Florida
Activated from DL: A.J. Minter (#19)...It's been a tough season for Minter, who carried a great deal of hype into spring training. There was thought he might even jump to the majors and why not? He jumped from Rome to Mississippi in 13 games with a stop in Carolina last year. But he was slowed by injury this spring and when he finally got into a game on April 11th, he strained his groin. But on Sunday, he made his return and struck out all three batters he faced. Kids, time to get hyped again.

Promoted to Mississippi and demoted back: Andres Santiago...So, this is Santiago's season. He spent a week to open the year with Florida, was "sent" to Danville for three days, brought back to Florida for a dozen, "back" to Danville for four, and was added to Rome for nearly two weeks before returning to Florida on May 10. I'm not done. Ten days later, he "returned" to Danville for a week before coming back to Florida for about five days. He then went to Gwinnett for two days, back to Florida for four days, up to Mississippi for three days, and two days ago, he was demoted back to Florida. In two months, he's moved around more than I have in nearly 35 years on this planet. I need to do more with my life.

Rome
Promoted from extended spring: Alan Rangel...Plucked out of Mexico back in 2014 during Frank Wren's last international class, Rangel has spent his first two professional seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He struggled badly through his first run, but turned the corner a bit last year with 46.2 solid innings. Rangel works off his control, which is superb and gets some good downward movement on his pitches. He fit the mold that the Wren-era scouting team was looking for in that way. He was expected to be on the Danville roster when the season opened, but received a shot with Rome to show what he has. He scattered seven hits over 4.2 innings, but only one, a homer, led to a run. He also walked a batter and struck out four. Just 19, he might get an extended stay with the Danville pitching staff likely to be stacked from the draft.

Activated: Oriel Caicedo...An extreme control artist, Caicedo has walked just four in 43.1 innings this year for Rome. Overall, he has a mere 73 walks in 412.2 career innings. He'll never strikeout a lot and doesn't get a ridiculous amount of grounders, which is why he won't show up on your prospect lists, but he's a solid dependable arm who can start when needed.

DL'd: Ryan Lawlor...Selected in 2015 with the #240th overall pick, Lawlor skipped Rome last year on his way to Carolina. He struggled there with an ERA and FIP near 5.00 before being demoted to Rome for this season. Though his ERA has been pedestrian (4.37), his peripherals have been wonderful (31% K-rate, 8% walk rate, no homeruns, 48% groundball rate, 2.03 FIP). I have not seen any report as to why he hit the DL, but he last pitched on May 31 and went 5.2 innings that day while matching his season and career-high in strikeouts with nine.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Jaret Hellinger...A 2015 20th rounder out of McDonough, GA, Hellinger has some good sinking stuff, but the southpaw struggled to put it together with Danville last year (4.42 FIP). He opened this season in extended spring training before getting a call-up in mid-May. His first outing was solid, but he struggled from there with a four-run four-inning start mixed in during his six-appearance run with Rome. Short of an injury, Hellinger might be stuck in Danville until their season begins.

DSL

Severino | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Assigned: Yenci Pena...Another one of the seven-figure prospects the Braves added last July, Pena us expected to add power as he ages (he's still just 16). A capable defender at shortstop, there is concern whether he'll stay there long-term, but for now, the Braves will roll with him at the position. He's gotten off to a 4-for-18 start with a pair of doubles, five strikeouts, and a steal.

Assigned: Yunior Severino (#44)...Signed for $1.9 million last July, Severino is one of the crown jewels of a massive class that also included Kevin Maitan, Abrahan Guiterrez, and the aforementioned Pena. He was ranked as the eighth-best prospect of last year's class and is a switch-hitting power hitter who may - and I stress may - be able to stay on the middle of the infield. Atlanta has decided for now to shift him over to second base, though opinions were split about whether he'd be able to stay at shortstop should the Braves had tried that. Severino is off to a 2-for-15 start with a double, three walks, and five strikeouts.

Transaction Tuesday: Wisler, Blair, Medlen, and Wentz

In this weekly review of the Braves' transactions, we focus a good deal on the pitchers. Some are attempting to stay in the majors for good while others are trying to work their way back. Elsewhere, one of Atlanta's best young guns is back on the mound just a week after a liner had Braves fans holding their breaths after it struck him.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between May 23 and May 29. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

Recalled: Matt Wisler...Wisler the Reliever, Part 2. Earlier in the year, Wisler came up and had two good outings and two rough ones - one in which he basically had to "wear it" as the Braves were pummelled 16-5. In two outings since returning, he's thrown four perfect frames with two strikeouts. That, at least, is something to build upon. Wisler's Triple-A ERA was high (5.20), but his FIP and xFIP were much more reasonable at 3.75 and 3.92 respectably. At the very least, I'd much rather see him in long relief than the next guy.

Designated for assignment and outrighted to Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Well, that didn't take long. After 19 innings over three starts last September for the Braves, Collmenter can't even duplicate the innings output in 2017. The problem was fairly fundamental. The Braves bought into his brief success without looking at the obvious flaws. His FIP was a good two runs higher than his ERA over those three starts and that's ignoring two very troublesome seasons from 2015-16 as a whole. The Braves rolled the dice and quickly regretted it. Collmenter gave up one run for each of the 17 innings he pitched and often, those runs came on flyballs that haven't landed yet (7 HR!). According to the Braves transaction page, he accepted a demotion to Gwinnett.

Gwinnett
Activated: Enrique Burgos...The often wild, but electric Burgos worked a quiet first frame as a member of the Gwinnett Braves after he was acquired last week. Despite prolific strikeout numbers, the last time Burgos had a better than 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate was back in 2014. He's a project and at 26, probably not a project the Braves will have a wealth of patience to wait on.

Outrighted: Anthony Recker...Rarely used in Atlanta, Recker was DFA'd last week after the flurry of trades and roster moves. He passed through waivers and elected to stick with the team.

Promoted from Mississippi: Wes Parsons...For the second time, Parsons is now a Triple-A ballplayer. The first time came on April 28 when he made an one appearance run with Gwinnett. It's been a long - often arduous - road for Parsons to get to this point. After a combined 142.1 innings over the last three years, Parsons had already reached 30.1 innings this year before the promotion. He's probably a bit miscast as a reliever, but he still flashes plus-plus control. He worked a tough inning in his return, allowing three singles and a run while striking out two.

Rehab: Adonis Garcia...So, Garcia had a four-hit game yesterday. He's definitely coming back and it's going to be pretty darn interesting what happens when he does. I have to believe that John Coppolella will wave off any lobbying by Brian Snitker and sent Emilio Bonifacio packing. When Garcia returns, he will likely settle into a platoon option, though knowing Snitker, we may get more of a timeshare than a platoon which ignores the best parts of Rio Ruiz and Garcia's game.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Rehab: Eric O'Flaherty...Last week, O'Flaherty hit the DL after aggravating his back giving up a homerun to Jose Bautista playing on the Toronto turf. He'll likely join the Braves soon after already making his first rehab appearance with a perfect frame. But should the Braves really roll out the carpet to welcome back him? We were told that after having his elbow cleaned out last year, he was feeling better than he had in a few years. There were reports he was getting sink on his pitches once again. And then the data came rolling in and said otherwise. According to PITCHf/x, at his best, O'Flaherty was getting between 5.71 and 6.74 of vertical movement on his sinker. It's down to 4.45 this season, which is actually very similar to last year's 4.56. His fourseamer had between 8.11 and 9.27 inches of vertical movement. It's been between 6.23 and 6.47 the last two seasons. He's using his slider a lot more now and getting half of the depth as his best Braves years. In his favor is that he's still handling lefties so far. That might be enough to get him back on the roster. But he's not "back" in the deeper sense. Not even a bit.

DL'd: Aaron Blair...Two years ago, Blair flashed plus-plus control with some newfound ability to induce his fair share of grounders. It made the Braves anxious to acquire him. Since coming to Atlanta, his control has never been worse (12.6 BB% this season), his strikeouts have never been worse, and his groundball rate has fallen ten points. Did the Braves rush him to the bigs last year? I don't think so. Blair's not making adjustments and that's not the fault of the Braves. He quickly fell into the habit of nibbling last year after he got to the majors. It reminds me of how Mike Minor pitched once he got to the majors from 2010-2012. His fear led him to give up baserunners in bunches until he finally started to trust his stuff. When that happened, Minor posted a 3.5 fWAR during 2013. Will Blair follow a similar path or will he continue to regress? Hopefully, it will be the former. I'm not sure why Blair hit the DL, by the way.

DL'd: Joel De La Cruz...He's spent more of the season on the DL than on the active roster. When he has been healthy, the results have been pretty miserable. Remember that this was a guy who threw 62.2 innings for last year's pitching staff.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Kris Medlen...After turning some heads with a six shutout innings in his 2017 debut, Medlen was roughed up by Clearwater last week for five runs in 5.1 ING. Nevertheless, he received a promotion up the ladder as he tries to work his way back into the picture. The control has been suspect, which you might expect from a guy working off the rust. The Braves could use all the help they can get and if Medlen does make it all the way back, he'll certainly force Atlanta to make a potentially tough decision.

Activated: Stephen Gaylor...The left-hand hitting outfielder has played in just a dozen games this season and is off to a 3-for-30 start with two walks. An undrafted free agent back in 2014, Gaylor showed a decent enough hit tool until arriving in Carolina last year. It's gotten much worse at Double-A.

Activated: Danny Reynolds...Picked up after becoming a minor league free agent this offseason, Reynolds' fourth season at Double-A has been a mixed bag. His groundball rate has shot up and his control is a bit improved compared to the previous two seasons, but his strikeouts have declined. His 5.48 ERA is a bit misleading - his LOB% is 56% - but his FIP and xFIP tell two different stories (3.33/4.56).

Demoted to Extended Spring: Connor Lien (#36)...It's hard to be too disappointed with Lien this year. With a deeper system than two years ago, he was no longer a borderline Top 20 prospect. Of course, his injury-riddled 2016 was also a factor. Though, even if he wasn't a major prospect anymore, this season has been tough to watch Lien go through. He was hitting .187/.268/.343 at the time of his demotion with 59 K's in 149 PA. That comes out to a nearly 40% strikeout rate - about 15% higher than his 2015 campaign. He has looked lost and unable to turn it around. Perhaps sometime at extended spring where he can clear his head will help.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him
on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

DL'd: Bradley Roney (#38)....It's been a tough campaign for Roney, whose talented by wild arm had him pitching meaningful games in the International League playoffs last year. After opening the year on the DL, he headed to Florida in late April before a promotion to Mississippi. He was actually doing okay there and unintentionally walked just four of the first 36 he faced while striking out a dozen, but he's now back on the DL.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Matt Gonzalez...Picked in the sixth round last year out of Georgia Tech, Gonzalez missed the first month of action while in extended spring training until a call-up after the first week of May. He then spent just 16 games in Rome, hitting .300/.355/.329. He picked up starts at third and in left and made a cameo at second base. It's second base that might help Gonzalez find some playing time in Florida as Alay Lago has underwhelmed to this point.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Andres Santiago...Often one of the names that fluctuates on-and-off the roster, Santiago has appeared nine times this year, including seven games with Florida. The results haven't been there for the eleven-year veteran, though the strikeouts look great (21 in 14.2 ING).

Released: J.B. Moss...To make room for Gonzalez, the Braves cut Moss, a seventh-round selection last year. Moss had blitzed the Appalachian League after being drafted, but the former Texas A&M star struggled with Carolina and then this season in his brief twelve games with Florida. Moss's value with the Braves was tied into how much money he saved them by signing under-slot last June. It's the tough thing about being signed less for your potential and more about allowing the team to sign the guys they actually want.

Rome
Activated: Joey Wentz (#14)...Good to see the southpaw Wentz back out there on Memorial less than two weeks after taking a liner off his leg. He tossed four innings of one-run ball in his return with a walk and three strikeouts. On the year, Wentz has a 3.18 ERA and over a strikeout an inning.

Promoted from Extended Spring: Ramon Osuna...With Rome getting little-to-no production from Anthony Concepcion and Kurt Hoekstra at first base, Osuna will get a chance to see if he can help out. A 14th round pick out of Walters State Community College in Morristown, TN last year, Osuna hit .276/.342/.423 with four homers in Danville. He struck out a ton (29%) and the former corner outfielder in college struggled with his new role at first base. Hopefully, an offseason of fine-tuning his skills will help him look more comfortable at first base.

Demoted from Mississippi: Joe Rogers...The late-spring cut by the Tigers has shown up a number of times in this series as he cycled on-and-off the Mississippi roster while only pitching three games.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Raymar Navarro...The Cuban righty has been limited to just five games with Rome this year. They have been successful for the most part, but the 26-year-old is not progressing up the depth chart despite pitching 67 innings last year at High-A.

DL'd: Oriel Caicedo...There have been two Oriel Caicedos in professional baseball. Both were signed out of Panama by the Braves. One is 26 and hasn't played since 2011 while the other recently hit the DL. Caicedo is no spring chicken at 23 years-old and made his debut in 2011...where he played with the other Oriel Caicedo. Seriously, this is something for me to obsess about. New Caicedo has impeccable control (just 71 unintentional passes in 411.2 innings), but also won't pick up many K's. He's been a swingman throughout his career and this marks his third year with Rome. Not sure what sent Caicedo to the DL.

Prepping for the Trade Deadline: Part 1

(Written by Ryan Cothran, a contributor at Walk-Off Walk for the last few weeks. Previous columns by Cothran include one on BABIP, the bullpen, and reviewing the Braves' buy-low philosophy on Tommy John survivors. Remember to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Yes, the trade deadline is a little way off, but let it be known that Braves General Manager John Coppolella is always anxious to make a deal and a single date doesn’t hold weight on this trading stallion. Therefore, we need to be prepared, and this article will help us get there.

If 2017 is a mirror of the past 2 years of Braves baseball, it’s going to be an active trade deadline for Coppy and the crew. Whether it be buying, selling, or a little bit of both, you can bet your sweet pippy the Braves will be dealing.

Here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2015. Note that at this time, Coppy was not yet named the GM, but most agree that these were Coppy's deals and John Hart was merely there to provide guidance and a helping hand:

• Traded Alberto Callaspo, Juan Jaime, Eric Stults and Ian Thomas to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Juan Uribe and Chris Withrow.
• Traded Philip Gosselin to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Touki Toussaint (minors) and Bronson Arroyo.
• Traded Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the New York Mets. Received John Gant and Robert Whalen.
• Ugh...traded Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza and Alex Wood to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Zachary Bird (minors), Hector Olivera and Paco Rodriguez from the Los Angeles Dodgers and 2016 competitive balance round A pick (used on Austin Riley) from the Miami Marlins
• Traded Chris Johnson to the Cleveland Indians. Received Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and cash
• Traded Jonny Gomes and cash to the Kansas City Royals. Received Luis Valenzuela

And here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2016:

• Traded Jhoulys Chacin to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Adam McCreery 
• Traded Brandon Barker (minors) and Trevor Belicek (minors) to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Brian Matusz and 2016 competitive balance round B pick (used on Brett Cumberland)
• Traded Jason Grilli and cash to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Sean Ratcliffe (minors).
• Traded Kelly Johnson and cash to the New York Mets. Received Akeel Morris.
• Traded a player to be named later, Dian Toscano (minors), Bud Norris and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Caleb Dirks (minors) and Phil Pfeifer (minors). The Atlanta Braves sent Alec Grosser (minors) (July 8, 2016) to the Los Angeles Dodgers to complete the trade.
• Traded Dario Alvarez and Lucas Harrell to the Texas Rangers. Received Travis Demeritte
• YAY! Traded Hector Olivera to the San Diego Padres. Received Matt Kemp and cash.
• Traded Hunter Cervenka to the Miami Marlins. Received Michael Mader (minors) and Anfernee Seymour
• Traded Erick Aybar to the Detroit Tigers. Received Kade Scivicque (minors) and Mike Aviles.
• As part of a 3-team trade, traded international bonus slot to the Texas Rangers and Jeff Francoeur to the Miami Marlins. Received Dylan Moore (minors) from the Texas Rangers and Matt Foley (minors) from the Miami Marlins. In addition, the Miami Marlins sent two international bonus slots to the Texas Rangers.

What will 2017’s trade deadline look like for our beloved Braves?

2015 was all about selling off the veterans, dead money, or debt consolidation for wild card prospects. The team was dead in the water and had no chance to compete. We knew it. Braves knew it.

2016 was much the same, rather the prospects were better, the deals were riskier (acquiring Matt Kemp), but most worked out in the Braves favor.

2017...if only we had a crystal ball. What will the Braves record be like approaching the deadline? If the last few weeks are any indication, I’d say that this team will be hovering around .500 come late June and that is lightyears better than what we’ve had these last 2 abysmal years. In dissecting Coppy’s track record, we can see who’s most likely to be on another team come July: 1-year veterans.  Here’s a list of players that have 1 year of control on their contract:

Brandon Phillips
Bartolo Colon
Jaime Garcia
Jason Motte
Kurt Suzuki
Emilio Bonifacio
Eric O’Flaherty
*I’m not including R.A. Dickey or Tyler Flowers on this list even though they are both on 1-year deals, but have reasonable options.


Of the players above, Phillips, Garcia, Motte, and Suzuki are the 4 that have established some value this year.  Colon could be bought based on reputation alone, but I don’t think there’s any team that would even take O’Flaherty or Bonifacio for free at this point.

However, if the Braves are looking competitive AND their best hitter in Freddie Freeman is set to return, one has to weigh the +/- of trading any of the vets that have value. The biggest question to answer would be “Are there suitable replacements?”  That, my friends, is a hard question to answer.

Replacing Traded Pieces

Replacement for Brandon Phillips? Ozzie Albies has taken to adjusting at AAA Gwinnett. In his last 20 games, he has a .296/.367/.432/.799 slash-line with 3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 6 SB and 0 CS. He’s younger and at this stage of Brandon’s career, will provide better defense. But Brandon’s on pace for a 2.5 fWAR year, is putting up solid numbers across the board, and has been a really nice addition to a Braves lineup that’s lacked good production from 2nd base. If Braves are competing, I think it’s hard to pull the trigger.

Weigel | Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Replacement for Bartolo Colon? Lucas Sims and Sean Newcomb have both taken their lumps of late, but Bartolo has taken his the entire year up until last start. There’s no doubt that having Bartolo on the team has a positive effect on our players, especially Latin Americans, but from a player’s perspective, his production seems replaceable on the surface given either of the two above could get the call - along with guys like Kris Medlen, Luke Jackson, or even Patrick Weigel.

Replacement for Jaime Garcia? It sounds weird to “sell-high” on a starting pitcher that’s sporting a 4.07 ERA, but that’s what the Braves could do with Jaime Garcia.  Left-handed pitchers are coveted in the MLB and Jaime’s peripherals tell a different story than his actual production. I’m afraid that if the Braves don’t move him soon, his numbers could balloon or his injuries pop up again. Insert same guys for Jaime’s replacement with more emphasis on Newcomb for handedness.

Replacement for Jason Motte? There are plenty of candidates for a Motte replacement, but all seem to come with the dreaded taint of being walk-heavy.  Motte’s great start has been a bit smoky and mirrory as his LOB is a crazy 94.8%, but make no mistake he has been effective. Luke Jackson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Akeel Morris seem like logical fits should any of the three find their control.

Replacement for Kurt Suzuki? At this point, I think the Braves would rather extend Suzuki for another year rather than trade him. There aren’t real replacements at Gwinnett (David Freitas, maybe?) and Kade Scivicque is at Mississippi, but that’d be rushing his development, especially as a hitter. Trading Suzuki doesn’t seem wise unless the Braves can acquire their future catcher at the deadline.

Replacement for Emilio Bonifacio, Eric O’Flaherty? While this likely isn’t trade deadline stuff as I don’t think these three will be around by then, replacing these guys seem rather easy:
Lane Adams for Emilio
Rex Brothers for O’Flaherty

What to expect in return for these trades?

If the Braves are trading any of their 1-year veterans, the less the acquiring team has to pay, the better the return. With that in mind, a team in desperate need of 2B production could send a B/B+ prospect to the Braves. Prospects the Braves have acquired in the past 2 years that fit that description are John Gant, Robert Whalen, Touki Toussaint, Akeel Morris, and Travis Demeritte

For the rest, it depends on what Coppy has up his sleeve. There’s a lot he could do with excess cash at the trade deadline and filling holes with high-end cost-heavy talent wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

Thanks for reading! Look for part 2 of this piece which will address Organizational Surplus.

Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:

• Stay Healthy  
• Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).

Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers

• Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
• *Arodys Vizcaino
• Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
• Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
• Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
• Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
• Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.

Current Minor Leaguers

• *Manny Banuelos
• *Josh Outman
• Brandon Beachy - 8 innings in MLB since with 7.88 ERA
• Kris Medlen - 82 innings in MLB since with 5.99 ERA, but had a dominant outing with the Florida Fire Frogs a few days back.
• Jonny Venters - 3 TJ surgeries (maybe 4?) no MLB innings since 1st surgery
• *Andrew McKirahan
• *Jesse Biddle
• *Max Fried
• *AJ Minter
• Brady Feigl- traded, pitching well in High-A for Texas
• *Jacob Lindgren
• Chris Withrow - released mysteriously, but hasn’t made it back to field. 37.2 innings of decent relief.
• Shae Simmons - briefly pitched in Atlanta last year, traded.
• *Daniel Winkler
• David Peterson - Had TJ surgery in 2013, has had relative success in the Braves minor league system.

Retired Major Leaguers

• Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
• Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.

Not currently affiliated with any team

• Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
• *Paco Rodriguez
• Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues

Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Braves Bullpen Sittin'em Down!

(Here is Ryan Cothran's second piece for Walk-Off Walk. His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The Braves have won 7 of their last 10, many without our beloved Freddie Freeman, and are looking like a team that could truly hover the .500 mark until his return. Granted, over the course of this season, they’ve looked like that team several times as they’ve put up several long winning streaks, followed by several longer losing streaks. While the starting pitching has shown signs of coming around in a small sample, the real story that has broken through in a mighty way has been the bullpen. Check these season numbers out:

• Jim Johnson: 19 innings, 2.84 ERA, 9K/9, 1.42BB/9, 0.5 bWAR
• Jose Ramirez: 20.2 innings, 1.31 ERA, 7.4K/9, 2.18BB/9, 0.8 bWAR
• Arodys Vizcaino: 18.1 innings, 2.45 ERA, 10.8K/9, 2.5BB/9, 0.5 bWAR
• Jason Motte: 11.1 innings, 1.59 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 3.2BB/9, 0.4 bWAR (and hit 99 MPH last night...what?)
• Sam Freeman: 8 innings, 9K/9, 0.00 ERA,  5.6BB/9, 0.2 bWAR

That is some impressive numbers from the core 5 of the Braves bullpen. Both Motte and Freeman have something in their low (or non-existent) ERAs that make statisticians leery that their success is real, but I could see at least 4 of these 5 guys having very successful seasons should they stay healthy.

Now for the rest of the guys? The 2 others LHPs Ian Krol and Eric O’Flaherty are sporting ERAs north of 6 and are getting hit frickin’ hard. Josh Collmenter, the long man hasn’t been able to stay in long and has caused more headache than help with an ERA sitting in the mid-5s. On the contrary to the prediction above where I could see 4 of 5 of the being successful, there’s nothing good about what’s going on with these 3: high BB rates, low K rates, and getting hit hard.

*Of note, Luke Jackson is still having a hard time harnessing control as shown by his larger sample of innings at AAA, but I wouldn’t put him in the same category has the aforementioned 3. Hopefully he can find the strike zone this year and turn into a dominant reliever.

Solutions on the Farm?

So what can the Braves do?  As of now, it looks like they’re going to have to be patient. Help is on the way, but not quite ready yet in terms of health. Here are a few guys to keep an eye on:

1. Rex Brothers- a LHP that has a mid-90s fastball that found success is just now getting healthy again after Tommy John surgery...hip surgery...and shoulder surgery. He could most definitely help if he can just stay on the field. He’s only pitched 2 innings in the MiLB this year, but struck out 5 of 6!
2. A.J. Minter- still on the mend at extending Spring Training, but I have no doubt he’ll be on the fast track once he gets back to health.
3. Mauricio Cabrera- Not sure what to think about Mo-Cab. Until last year, I would’ve predicted a Juan Jaime clone. In case you cannot remember, Juan Jaime could also throw it through a barn...if he could hit it.
4. Akeel Morris- Still walking a ton, but striking out a ton as well. If he can harness his control, he’ll be up as he’s already on the 40-man.
5. Lucas Sims- Had a rough last outing, but he’s turned the curve in his control. Could be a smart replacement for Collmenter, and a good way to test his worth at the MLB level.
6. Kris Medlen- A new delivery in-tow, if Meds can stay on the field, it’s only a matter of time before he’s back in the bigs in some capacity.

There are others, but I think the pecking order starts here, with a mix of veterans on the mend, some top-notch talent, and guys currently on the 40-man.  Could be a fun season after all!

Go Braves!