Braves Throw Away the Grill(i)

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Tuesday's trade of Jason Grilli is reminiscent of the trade of Jhoulys Chacin. The Braves appear to get little out of the trade outside of opening a spot on the 25-man roster from a veteran. The promising results from Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez made the Chacin trade a plus for Atlanta. Grilli's immediate replacement is Ryan Weber. That's not quite as exciting.

Signing Grilli was a bit of a surprise in the offseason of 2014-15. After an All-Star campaign in 2013, Grilli had lost his closer job the following year with the Pirates before being pushed to the Angels to end the season. Like Jim Johnson, Grilli was a former closer who could bring the bullpen depth. Unlike the one-year "show me" offer Johnson accepted, Grilli was more desired by the Braves and received at least $8M in guaranteed salary out of the deal with an addition $2.75 million to be earned in 2017 if his option was exercised. Right before his first season with the Braves, Grilli was named closer in the wake of Craig Kimbrel's trade to the Padres.

He was superb from there with a 4.5 K/BB rate over 33.2 innings and 24 saves. It was All-Star-quality first half right up until he hurt his Achilles running toward first base to field a throw on a grounder. It ended his 2015 season and really ended Grilli's run as a top closer. A late start this spring didn't keep him from joining the major league roster, but he blew a save on opening day and would be dinged up for runs on five of his nine April outings. From there, he lost his big innings appointment and rarely worked with a close lead. The fact that the Braves were going with Bud Norris over Grilli is all you need to know.

The trade saved very little in terms of salary as the Blue Jays will merely cover a pro-rated portion of a major league minimum. The Braves received right-hand pitcher Sean Ratcliffe out of the deal. A native to Canada, Ratcliffe was an 18th rounder in 2013 who was known more as a prep catcher than a pitcher. The move to full-time pitcher was difficult on Ratcliffe as he showed little control in two stints in the Gulf Coast League (21 BB to 15 K over 22.1 ING). Hard work led to some clear improvements in 2015. Over 40 innings, he walked just 16 and struck out 30. Over his last eight games, he walked just two in 17.1 innings.

The reason the Jays were in love with his arm was that he can throw hard (mid-90's) with a slider that could be a plus pitch someday. It's a long road to getting a productive arm, but some scout probably liked his potential. A pitcher with his profile has a chance for big strikeout numbers, but that comes with the ability to throw strikes early-and-often in counts. Ratcliffe is not there, yet.

If this trade seems "meh," it's because it is. The Braves received little out of this trade except a live arm with three years of professional experience and no games at full-season A-ball. With that in mind, the Braves probably felt that any offer for Grilli was "good enough." Ratcliffe, like Adam McCreery, gives the Braves another arm with a chance. That's about it.

Braves Monday Roundup - Rome Goes 19, Soroka, Youth Movement

Welcome to the second Braves Monday Roundup. This series was supposed to be a way to recap the week in short fashion while freeing up Monday for a more focused look at a player or whathaveyou at my other blog, where I used to post weekly 5 for Monday articles. However, as I mentioned a few times this week, my other blog will be no more. About.com has restructured and the About Sports department got the ax. It's unfortunate, but alas, it's business. The advantage to that development for this blog means more content. I'm going to be saving some of the articles from About and should it completely disappear, I will be republishing the best stuff here.

Speaking of content, I will continue to do my shameless plugs, but I will put them at the bottom of this post rather as a headliner like I did last week.

5 Stories You May Have Missed

Rome Plays 2. Counts for 1
-On Sunday, the Rome Braves visited Hickory with Ricardo Sanchez on the mound. It was a matchup between the team with the best record in the South Atlantic League and Rome, who entered Sunday tied with the worst record. Hictory would strike first, cashing in a Alejandro Salazar error in for a run. In the second, Rome tied it up on a double-steal on a Leudys Baez strikeout. And that's how it would remain for about four hours. Sanchez had struck out six in five innings, A.J. Minter had tossed another scoreless outing, Trevor Belicek went four scoreless, and Grayson Jones added a trio of scoreless frames of his own, but the Rome offense couldn't find a way to break through. Finally, in the 18th, Baez would lead off things with a single. After a bunt and walk, Salazar would benefit from an error this time as a throwing error brought home a run. Bladimir Matos couldn't make it stick, though. He hit a batter and walked one. A wild pitch pushed both into scoring position and with one out, a fielder's choice scored a run. Matos got out of it, though, setting the stage for a wild 19th inning.

After a single, flyout, and the fifth error of the day by both teams, another error off the bat of Baez scored Rome's third run. The next four batters all reaches safely with the seventh error of the day advancing Ray-Patrick Didder to third. He would score on a Luke Dykstra flyout. Finally, Yepez brought home a final runner with a double. Rome had plated SEVEN runs in the 19th. In the bottom half, Rome switched Yepez to third so that Yeudi Grullon could pitch. The infielder walked one, but had a quiet 19th to finish the game. There will be few games crazier this year at any level.

Soroka Impresses
-The blog "Notes from the Sally" is a must-read for any minor league baseball fan. This week, John Calvagno profiled right-hander Mike Soroka. Drafted 28th overall last season out of Calgary, Soroka impressed Calvagno with his fastball and curve. Calvagno's greatest compliment is one that I've heard a few times when Soroka's name has come up. "Hard to believe he's just 18 years old." Soroka is a guy who should only climb up midseason prospect charts.

Braves Rotation Gets Younger
-Many people looked at the roster that broke camp and saw a plethroa of veterans from Bud Norris to Eric O'Flaherty to Jeff Francoeur and wondered, "if this is a rebuild, why all the old fogies?" Well, the thing about all of those veterans is that they make nice placeholders. The starting rotation has especially went through a youth movement already. With Norris shifted to the pen and Jhoulys Chacin traded, it left Julio Teheran as the only starter with at least 25 starts in the majors, according to the AJC's Michael Cunningham. Not only that, but the Braves had five starters who have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday when no other team has three. Last year, the Braves became the first team in history with six pitchers logging at least 15 starts who were 25-and-under. 2016 is not looking any different.

Right Field at SunTrust Will Be "Signature Item"
-One of the complaints with Turner Field is how...boring it is. From foul pole to foul pole, there are no nooks and crannies. No oddities that is special to Turner Field. Instead, Turner Field was built to be as normal and basic as you get with a bigger focus on the team on the field than ivy in the outfield, a Green Monster, a stupid hill in center field, or any number of things that make other ballparks unique. Suntrust Park, on the other hand, is designed to be different. One of the "signature items" will be brick wall right above 10 feet of padding in right field. The wall will be in play so hitters will have to hit the ball over it for homeruns. Otherwise, if it hits the brick, the outfielders will have to play how it caroms off the brick. It should be something to keep an eye on early next year.

Did the D'Backs win the Upton Trade?
-ArizonaSports.com's John Gambadoro wrote last week something that I felt had long ago been decided and was not up for debate. Except, Gambadoro came to the opposite conclusion as conventional wisdom. His position - the Diamondbacks won the Justin Upton trade. The mega deal completed in the 2012-13 offseason sent Upton and Chris Johnson to the Braves for Randall Delgado, Martin Prado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Drury. At the time, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was criticized for the move, but Gambadoro looks at the deal with a fresh perspective and comes away with the idea that the D'Backs got the better end of the deal. Now, there is something to be said that the D'Backs didn't do as badly as many felt they did with this trade, but it's short-sighted to come to the conclusion that Arizona won it. While the writer focuses solely on Upton, he misses the trade that sent Upton to the Padres for Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Jace Peterson. While Jace is back in the minors, Mallex looks like a potential starter, Dustin is raking, and Fried is back on the mound and showcasing his knee-buckling curveball. Those four players should be mentioned - especially since the writer mentions what the Diamondbacks got in the Prado exchange. Ultimately, like I said, the deal doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did when it happened, but it's still not looking good for Arizona.

Trivia Question
-Last week, I asked the question - "Since 2000, what pitcher had the most scoreless games to begin his career." The answer was not Hunter Cervenka, but Brad Ziegler, who began his career with with 29 games (and 39.1 innings) of scoreless ball out of the Oakland Athletics bullpen. It was Melvin Upton who ended the streak with a go-ahead double off Ziegler in a tie game. This week's question focuses on the fact the Braves have just four players who have a hit a homerun this year. "In the expansion era (1961-to-present), and excluding the streak-shortened 1981, what three teams have tied for the fewest players on the team to hit at least one homerun?" I'll give you a hint on one of the teams. Let's Play Two. Tweet at me if you know the answer.

Birthdays
-Billy Martin would have been 88 today. Martin, best known for being George Steinbrenner's favorite toy, played in six games with the Milwaukee Braves during the 1961 season. Also celebrating a birthday today is Sean McLaughlin, a right-hander with Carolina, who turns 22. Tomorrow, Pascual Perez would have been 59. Jordy Lara, an infielder for Mississippi, also has a May 17th birthday and turns 25. The following day, Marcus Giles turns 38. The powerful player made my Favorites Braves squad. Current righty Williams Perez will turn 25 on Saturday. On Sunday, Rio Ruiz will be just 22.

Shameless Plugs
Transaction Tuesday - Recapping a pair of trades, Adonis Garcia's demotion, and the promotion of A.J. Minter and Juan Yepez.

Braves Cash in Chacin - Atlanta traded pitcher Jhoulys Chacin last week as a means to sell high on the righty. My impression is that they may have sold too soon, but I understood the impulse.

Have any Braves Pitchers Hit Two Homers in the Same Game? - After Noah Syndergaard went yard twice last week, I fired up the Baseball-Reference Play Index and sought to answer that question.

Cherishing Cervenka - Unfortunately for Hunter Cervenka, I completely jinxed him as he surrendered his first runs later that day.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - In the first of a ten part series where I alternate between the Worst and Best drafts since 2000, I started last week with the fifth worst.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Topics included hitting fewer homers than games won, Nick Markakis not hitting any homers, Julio Teheran's durability, and how awesome Arodys Vizcaino's advanced metrics are.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Dustin Peterson, Dansby Swanson, and Ray-Patrick Didder among others were keyed on for this week.

Random Prospect Sunday - This week, I focused on Steve Janas, a righty who nearly threw a Perfect Game last season.

Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Markakis, Teheran, Vizzy

This article used to be a staple of my time at AtlantaBraves.About.com, but with my contract with the company ending - and their sports department being blown up - I'll continue the series here.

Homers < Wins

Over the history of baseball, winning more games than you homer is not a grand accomplishment. After all, before the introduction of smaller ballparks, expansion, and the realization that chicks dig the long ball, homeruns were not celebrated like they are now. Since Babe Ruth changed the face of baseball, less and less teams have been able to win more games than their team's total output of homeruns. Almost none of them also contended for a playoff birth.

When Freddie Freeman hit his sixth homerun last week, it gave the team nine homeruns compared to just eight wins. That's the thinnest of margins and considering 66.67% of the remaining team homeruns have been shipped out with the banishment of Adonis Garcia and release of Drew Stubbs, could the Braves do something that just never happens in the modern game? Could the Braves homer fewer times than they win games?

I can't answer that, but I can say that if they did, they would be the first team in over 20 years to do so. The last team to win more games than they sent dingers flying into the seats was the 1992 Milwaukee Brewers. It was really the perfect storm for the Brew Crew that year to pull this off. Two years before, they had waved goodbye to "swing hard in case you hit it" Rob Deer. Without his steady source of power, Milwaukee needed nice homerun numbers from a pre-Coors Dante Bichette while also requiring their Hall of Fame combo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor to not remember that they were hitting their upper 30's. None of those things happened and in 1992, Milwaukee hit just 82 homeruns, the second worst mark in the American League. Yet, they won 92 games and their 20 September wins had the Brewers just two games behind the Blue Jays with two to go. They would lose their final two games and the Jays would win the AL East, the AL Title, and...you know the rest.

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Nick Markakis' Power Outage

In the first 832 plate appearances of a four-year, $44 million contract, Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis has nearly matched his Baltimore batting average (one point higher as a Brave) and also has maintained a statistically insignificant advantage over his OBP as an Oriole (11 points higher). In many ways, Markakis has shown no let-up when it comes to his offensive game.

Except for power, of course. No one thought Markakis would come to the Braves and hit 20 homers yearly after only doing that twice in his career (2007-08), but the expectation of more dongs was definitely higher than what the Braves have received thus far. In case you weren't aware, Markakis has homered three times as a Brave. While his gain in OBP may not be significant, his loss in slugging certainly is. As an Oriole, his ISO was .145. As a Brave, it's just .082. Now, one could argue the Braves should have seen this coming since his ISO over his final two years with the Orioles was .098, but even that would be an improvement. To bring perspective to his total of homers as a Brave, of the 51 players who have amassed 500 PA since 2000 as a Brave, only one player (Gregor Blanco) homered fewer times than Markakis. Blanco hit just one, by the way. Only one other player has three homeruns like Markakis - Tim Hudson in 250 fewer PA. None-power hitters like Melky Cabrera, Jordan Schafer, and Quilvio Veras look like Barry Bonds compared to Markakis.

He's had long homerun droughts as a Brave. His first homerun didn't come until plate appearance #396. His most recent one isn't quite as stark, but over his last 179 plate appearances dating back to when he led off September 25, 2015's game with a homerun, Markakis has just a dozen extra base hits in that time frame. All are doubles. Markakis has been productive as a Brave (105 wRC+), but it's a stretch to think he's been $44M productive.

Julio Teheran's Durability

With Bud Norris banished to the bullpen and Jhoulys Chacin traded to the Angels, Julio Teheran becomes the rotation's oldest and most experienced starter. Teheran has been amazingly durable as a professional pitcher and that has only continued as a major leaguer. Since the beginning of 2013, only six pitchers have made more starts than Teheran, who has taken the ball 104 times.

This is Teheran's Age-25 year. That's a simple way of saying what his age will be on June 30th of the season. If he picks up 22 more starts this season, he'll reach the 30 start plateau for the fourth consecutive year. Since 1990, only 16 players have done that before they turned 26. Just five reached five years of 30 GS or more by the age of 25. Only one - Felix Hernandez - had a half-dozen years of 30 GS before his 26th birthday.

Arodys Vizcaino's cFIP is Very Impressive

It's difficult for Vizcaino to find work as the Braves' closer. With so few opportunities, he has logged a lot of innings trying to keep a game tied or give the team a good inning to keep them close. He's been dominant when used - which you know if you've watched him pitch. A deep dive into his performance with Baseball Prospectus shows that he's been nearly as effective as the former Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel. So far this year, Vizzy has a cFIP, of FIP in context, of 74. That not only matches (in many less innings) Stephen Strasburg, it's not too far removed from Kimbrel's 71. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, also paints a picture of outstanding performance. When compared to their peers with 100 as league average, Vizzy has a 83 DRA-. Kimbrel's? 82. I definitely recommend further reading into both stats, but suffice it to say, each number tells us that - to this point - Vizzy has been every bit the performer the Braves traded right before the 2015 season starter. Vizzy's doing it for many millions less, by the way.

Slightly low on the number of stats for this week's stat pack, but I hope you found the ones I touched on interesting. Later this afternoon, I'll hopefully have the minor league portion of this series. (edit, here's the link.)

Cherishing Cervenka

There is some degree of luck that goes into how dominant Hunter Cervenka has been as a Brave. You don't throw 10.1 scoreless innings - spaced out over 15 games - from the moment you arrive in the majors without a little luck. You don't give up just one hit in that time frame without being on the right side of the baseball Gods. It takes great fortune to have a 5.6% line drive percentage at any point in the season. But even as we must be reserved in our expectations, Cervenka's start deserves a great deal of praise. Yet, we also much know that when things finally begin to normalize, what do the Braves actually have?

Since coming up from Mississippi in the wake of Daniel Winkler's gruesome conclusion to the 2016 season, Cervenka has been a tough puzzle for hitters to solve. For instance, 14% of the time hitters swing at one of his pitches, they miss. That's 4% over the league average, but it's par for the course since Cervenka signed with the Braves last summer. 17% of all swings were missed by hitters Cervenka faced as a Gwinnett Brave in 2015. That rate slightly increased to 19% this year with Mississippi and the league average is roughly half that. The league average describes Cervenka as a member of the Cubs organization.

As a Brave, things have changed. While it's a very small sample size, Cervenka has relied so much on his slider that he's one of the nine major league pitchers who have both thrown ten innings this year while throwing at least 45% of their pitches for sliders. Cervenka's slider is very hard on lefthanders and it's also thrown very hard. The average velocity on a slider is about 84 mph. While varied sources have Cervenka's slider charted differently, Brooks Baseball (my most trusted source) suggests that Cervenka throws about an 88 mph slider with a high-end of 90.5 mph. That's the definition of a hard slider. Unsurprisingly, the pitch currently has a 2.4 wSL/C - or it's 2.4 wins above the league average per 100 sliders.

Lately, Cervenka has been mixing in his third pitch - a curveball. This is less a concerted effort and more because he has faced an increased amount of right-handed batters. It doesn't have the dominating quality of his slider, but the off-speed delivery helps to keep players from keying in on his fastball. As Cervenka continues to perform well, he will get more opportunities to refine his curveball because of increased opportunities.

It's natural to be concerned about regression to the mean and we are promised an element of that. His expected fielding independent pitching, or xFIP, is currently 3.68 (sample size alert) while his FIP is a bit more exciting with a 2.32 mark. Again, both are warped by the sample size so we have to keep things in perspective. That said, a pair of the best tools used for predicting future success are giving us a range that - at worst - paints the picture of an effective reliever while at the top end, shines the spotlight on the possibility of Cervenka being an outstanding reliever. The truth will reveal itself as Cervenka logs more innings.

A couple of Baseball Prospectus' stats are also very kind to Cervenka. FIP in Context, or cFIP, currently is graded as an 88 for Cervenka. The stat, which uses 95-105 as the average and anything over it as below average to Bud Norris territory, means that Cervenka's 88 cFIP has been above average so far and on the cusp of greatness. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, is another good predictor of a pitcher's real performance and future ERA. For Cervenka, the mark is 3.38.

When you pool together all of the numbers, it's hard not to get too excited about Cervenka. It's as if you force yourself to remember it's just 15 games and 10.1 innings over and over. On the other hand, let's not get too bogged down with the expected regression to the mean. Cervenka will certainly allow a run at some point, but that won't change the fact that he has been an absolute find by the Atlanta Braves scouting department and coached up to unlock potential his former employers like the Red Sox and Cubs ultimately failed to see. That deserves major kudos from all involved.

Of course, since I praised him so richly, he's destined to struggle tonight. Then again, by mentioning that I expect it, the Baseball Gods will flip the script once more. I'll cross my fingers.

Transaction Tuesday: Sims, Marksberry, Kinman

I'm going to try something new this season and that's keeping up with minor league transactions. Every Tuesday, I'll take a look at each level to go over some of the moves and provide analysis. If this is the kind of thing that interest you, let me know. Apologies that this was released so late today. Planning for a 5 year-old birthday's party takes a lot out of you. I will not include any of today's transactions and instead push them off to next week's version.

Review last week's transactions.

Gwinnett
Activated: Jose Ramirez...He was placed on the DL after he was outrighted, but didn't stay on it for long. The righty has been active with three games already and has flashed the strikeout potential that led to him making the roster out of spring training (7 K's in 4 ING). He's also surrendered a solo homerun.

Promoted: Lucas Sims...I was a bit surprised to see him get a callup so quickly, but you have to remember that Sims had a dozen starts at Double-A and five starts last fall in Arizona. His first go-around with Gwinnett continued his season-long control issues, but also continued his strong strikeout numbers. It'll be interesting to see how Sims reacts over the next month or so. Hitters in Triple-A are often guys who have seen major league-quality pitches and will make a young pitcher work if he doesn't throw strikes.

Optioned: Casey Kelly...Talk about doing little to hurt your case to return. Kelly worked three innings in his Braves debut and kept a game from becoming a blowout after Bud Norris struggled. It was a good follow-up for Kelly, who worked seven scoreless in his second start with Gwinnett. It wouldn't surprise me any to see Kelly still turn into a capable major league option. After all, there was a time where he ranked in the Baseball America Top 100 in four consecutive seasons.

Optioned: Matt Marksberry...It's a bit surprising that the Braves choose to keep Eric O'Flaherty over the younger lefty. Say what you will about Marksberry's limitations, but he has been studly against lefties in the majors (.164/.270/.255). He handled Mississippi hitters with ease before his short promotion to Atlanta. He'll be the next lefty called up when the Braves want one.

Optioned: Williams Perez...The biggest problem for Perez in the majors is that he really doesn't have the stuff to be a big league starter. He can stick around and even might have a nice run where he holds down the fort for a few starts, but he relies on deception and control in the minors - things that don't get him far enough with major league hitters. He struggled in his return to Triple-A, giving up three runs on three walks over five innings. He also struck out five.

Demoted and Promoted: Braeden Schlehuber...It's been a slow start to the season for Schlehuber, who began things on the DL. After being activated the week before last, he was "demoted" to Danville to get the roster numbers under control before being "brought" back. The career .218 hitter is 1-for-6 in two games this year.

Outrighted, Demoted, and Promoted: Joel De La Cruz...What a quick major league experience for De La Cruz. He didn't appear in a game when he was called up with Hunter Cervenka before being not just demoted, but outrighted off the 40-man. He's been pretty decent in the early going for Gwinnett and will look to continue that.

Mississippi
Activated: Kyle Kinman...Good to see Kinman's stay on the DL was short-lived. A lefty with a lot of believers, Kinman struggled a bit out of the gate after making a late run in camp with the big league club. In his first appearance since being activated, he threw a quiet inning with a walk, but induced a double play to face the minimum.

Demoted: Danny Burawa...The former Yankees product opened camp with a chance to make the major league roster. He's not back down in Double-A, marking the fourth consecutive season he's spent time at the level. Part of his demotion was related to the numbers game, but he did little to earn more opportunities with the G-Braves. Of particular concern was the 11 walks in 7 innings.

Demoted: Madison Younginer...Signed this offseason on a minor league deal out of the BoSox organization, Younginer has not had the kind of start a player likes to have with a new team. He maintained a nearly 2 WHIP with Gwinnett before being demoted and got roughed up for three runs with Mississippi in his debut there.

Carolina
Activated: Bryton Trepagnier...A 41st rounder by the Pirates in 2010, Trepagnier signed with the Braves last year and appeared in 42 forgetful games for Mississippi last year in which he walked 44 and struck out 30. He must have a believer or two because statistically, the results simply have never really been there.

DL'd: Raymar Navarro...Signed this offseason after defecting from Cuba, Navarro's early-season numbers haven't been much to write home about (6.2 ING, 6 K, 3 BB, 4 ER).

Demoted and Promoted: Sean McLaughlin...A 19th rounder out of Georgia last June, McLaughlin briefly was taken off the roster last week. The undersized righty has had a pretty good start to his professional career with 52 K's in 49 innings to go with his 2.39 ERA. That includes stops last year with Danville and Rome and this season with the Mudcats.

Rome
Promoted: Oriel Caicedo...Caicedo has been up-and-down a few times between Rome and "Danville" since the season began. He's struck out 8 in 8.1 innings for Rome when he's been around to pick up game action. Included in his four appearances was his first professional save.

Danville
Promoted and Demoted: Michael O'Neal...Signed out of the independent leagues after he was undrafted coming out of Auburn, O'Neal briefly was on the Carolina roster last week. He appeared in two games and gave up a homerun over three innings. He walked two and struck out a pair. O'Neal throws in the low-90's with a two-seam fastball according to this article.

Demoted: Victor Mateo...A repeat name on this list, Mateo was just activated and had appeared in four games before being moved down to Danville as a procedural move. He probably is still with the Mississippi Braves, but is simply not "active."

Demoted: Joe Kennedy...I mentioned him last week as well. Kennedy spent three seasons in Australia getting very little work before an eight start run with Melbourne last year. The lefty appeared in four games with Rome with pretty poor results.

Demoted: Rob Wooten...Yep, Danville's pretty much a place the Braves stash arms until they need them. Wooten is a veteran of 71 major league games before this season and had appeared in five games with Gwinnett before being "demoted."

GCL Braves
No moves.

DSL Braves
No moves.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com

I've posted a lot of articles at my AtlantaBraves.About.com link as things start to get more active with spring training beginning. Here's a comprehensive list of the articles over the last week or so. All article links open to a new tab/window.

Braves Plan to Spend Big, but Not On Veteran Players
...Instead of pooling their funds together for a big free agent splash, the Atlanta Braves might be in the act of simply waiting to go big this July. Kevin Maitan, the prize of the international signing class, has been a target of Atlanta's for a long time now, but he's probably just the tip of the iceberg in what will be a huge international showing by the Braves. Read more.

Are the Atlanta Braves Tanking? That All Depends
...Is it fair to label a rebuilding project "tanking?" And what really is tanking? Is it the systematic effort to be awful for future gains in draft picks and payroll because, if not, can we really say that's what the Braves are doing? My deeper look into the subject pushes me to come to this resolution - the Braves are just being smart. Read more.

Who Are the Atlanta Braves' Top 5 Prospects?
...I ranked prospects from #50 to #6 here, but with the Top 5, I jumped to the other blog with deeper analysis on all five. Process of elimination means that the Top 5 is some mix of Ozhaino Albies, Kolby Allard, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, and Dansby Swanson - but where do they rank? Read more.

3 Things About Gordon Beckham
...In more cross promotional connections between here and AtlantaBraves.About.com, the 3 Things series is a more biographical component to the Scouting Report series here. A few days ago, I posted Beckham's Scouting Report here on the same day as I posted 3 Things. Relive his college days where Beckham looked like a world beater, his short minor league career, and a major league career in which his first major league experience was also his best. Read more.

Jeff Francoeur Serves as Cautionary Tale
...One of the more talked-about signings of the offseason for the Braves may have been their final one. This week, the Braves brought "Frenchy" back on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. His return gives us a moment to take stock in how prospects will break your heart and even when they don't, it takes time. Read more.

Atlanta Braves Looking for Answers in the Rotation
...After reading this article, you can name three different starting staffs the Braves could technically go with in 2016 and never repeat a name. Julio Teheran is at the front and Bud Norris and Matt Wisler seem like they will be joining him, but the rest of the rotation is completely up in the air. Manny Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz, Ryan Weber, and Williams Perez lead returning starters while Blair, Newcomb, and Tyrell Jenkins lead youngsters looking for a shot. And then, there is the minor league free agents like Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick. The list is seemingly never ending. Read more.

Babe Ruth Comes Back to Boston as a Brave
...Typically, I do Transactions of Today here (and did one today about Jack Quinn), but when it comes to the Great Bambino, things are always a wee bit different. 81 years ago, Ruth joined the Braves after a bitter end with the Yankees. While Boston had hoped Ruth would be a big boost at the ticket counter, he was just a shell of his former self at this point and aside from magical May day, people were no longer seeing the Sultan of Swat. Read more.

That's it. Hoping this week will continue to be free enough for me to write another group of articles.

Thursday Throwback - Like Dexter Fowler, Rafael Furcal Looked Like a Done Deal

Typically, the Thursday Throwback is related to a random player and his time with the Braves. However, in light of Dexter Fowler's stunning decision to pass on the Baltimore Orioles and sign with the Chicago Cubs, I felt it was a perfect time to remember when a similar event kind of happened to the Braves. And bonus - it was far more ugly than just disagreeing about contract particulars.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

I've referenced Frank Wren's terrible 2008-09 offseason a few times here regarding the signings of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami along with the desperate settling for Garret Anderson. At my other site, I also went deep into the time Ken Griffey Jr. nearly joined the Braves. Now, we focus on the biggest point of contention related to that offseason - the pursuit of Rafael Furcal.

You might recall that Furcal came to the majors as a not-19 year-old kid back in 2000. I say "not" because he was actually 21 years-old, but hey, who doesn't lie about their age so that they can sign with a major league franchise two years before they are legally able to? Furcal's 2000 was hyper-impressive even after you accept that he wasn't 19 years-old during the season. He stole 40 bases, walked nearly as often as he struck out, posted a .394 OBP, and played a pretty stout shortstop.

Fookie would spend five more years in Atlanta and though he only eclipsed the 40-steal mark once more, he was often a great leadoff hitter who some complained was vulnerable to the Omar Epps-played Willie Mays Hayes syndrome (not an official name). Furcal liked to display his power and overswing despite having the bat control and speed to turn grounders the other way into hits. He stopped bunting doubles (yes, he did that) and hit leadoff homers instead. Still, when your leadoff hitter posts a triple slash of .285/.348/.429 over his final three years with the team, you're kinda okay with the negatives.

A free agent in 2005, Furcal became the latest in a string of high-profile defections from a team no longer maintaining a bloated payroll. The Braves astutely replaced Furcal with Edgar Renteria in 2006 and didn't miss a beat. Renty didn't have the arm Furcal did, but he was a better all-around bat. After 2007, the Braves moved Yunel Escobar into the starting shortstop gig and continued their string of solid shortstop play.

Which was what made Atlanta's interest in bringing back Furcal so curious. Furcal had done quite well with the Dodgers after leaving Atlanta, but missed most of 2008 with back surgery. However, Atlanta wasn't interested in Furcal playing short - they wanted him at second base. That was also kind of curious because Kelly Johnson had posted a triple slash of .282/.362/.451 with 28 HR the previous two years as the starting second baseman (and part-time leadoff hitter). Presumably, Atlanta would have shifted Johnson back to left field (where he played briefly in '05), which would have saved us from the Griffey Jr and Anderson pursuits later that offseason. Though his agent later said it was an issue, Furcal commented on the prospect of shifting to second: "For me, it's no problem."

The Dodgers wanted Furcal back and as the calendar reached mid-December, the two clubs were the final two teams in the running for Furcal. Ned Colletti, the Dodgers GM, had been assured that they would get a final shot to re-sign Furcal, and both teams jockeyed for supremacy in bringing back the speedy middle infielder.

Los Angeles had initially promised just two seasons as they were concerned with Furcal's back. The Braves saw the opening and went for it, negotiating an offer of $30M over three years with a 2012 option that would vest based on plate appearances. Frank Wren felt even more confident that the offer was good enough to bring back Furcal after the shortstop's agent, Paul Kinzer, asked Wren to fax a signed term sheet. Wren was convinced that their efforts had been successful because, according to the Braves, agents don't ask for a term sheet unless an agreement is pending. News leaked that the Braves were a physical away from announcing the deal and even Kinzer said that Furcal "was close" to accepting the offer. He told his client to sleep on it.

Kinzer then began to "backpedal" and said the Dodgers were promised a last chance to sign Furcal. The Dodgers "suddenly" stepped up, matching the Braves' offer of $30M over three seasons with a vesting option. With Kinzer saying Furcal's preference was to stay in LA the whole time, along with staying at shortstop, the Dodgers and Furcal agreed to the contract pending a physical.

In Atlanta, both John Schuerholz and Wren were incensed. Schuerholz boldly stated that the Braves would never again work with Wasserman Media Group, who Kinzer was employed by. That was possibly a CBA violation, but the message was clear. Atlanta felt betrayed and Wren clarified their position by saying that faxing a signed term sheet was the equivalent of a handshake agreement and that Kinzer and his agency had acted unethically in bowing out at the last moment. Wren also accused Kinzer of taking the term sheet to the Dodgers and effectively giving the Dodgers the ammo to know exactly what they needed to do to retain Furcal.

Schuerholz went further. "Having been in this business for 40-some years, I've never seen anybody treated like that....It was disgusting and unprofessional. We're a proud organization, and we won't allow ourselves to be treated that way."

For their part, Kinzer said that there didn't even exist a verbal agreement between the two sides. "We had, 'Things look very good and Raffy's going to sleep on it.'" Colletti chose not to weigh in too much, but did say that faxing a signed term sheet was not the equivalent of an agreement between the two sides in his experience.

If it means anything, this wouldn't be the last time Kinzer's integrity would be called into question. He was dismissed from Wasserman in 2012 for "unresolved issues involving the players, including fees." The biggest issue came in the form of Francisco Rodriguez, who settled for an unknown amount after seeking more than $5.5M in damages. Rodriguez had been traded to the Brewers in July of 2011 despite including Milwaukee on his list of teams that he couldn't be traded to. For some reason, the list was never filed.

Was the Furcal mess unethical? Possibly. It was definitely shady to say the least. The Braves ultimately went back on their "boycott of Wasserman" and later signed Ryan Lavarnway, Cristhian Martinez, Bud Norris, and others. Kinzer started Rep 1 Baseball after leaving Wasserman and Kelly Kinzer, Paul's son, represents Adonis Garcia.

In the end, Furcal went to the Dodgers and the Braves terrible offseason would continue. They wanted Jake Peavy and Furcal. They got Lowe, Kawakami, and Anderson. Their double play combo of Johnson and Escobar wouldn't last long either. But in their favor was that Furcal was only healthy for the 2009 season and hurt after that so they dodged the bullet of paying an injured Furcal. So, there are some silver linings to this.

Other Thursday Throwbacks...
Marquis Grissom (1995-96)
Terrell Wade (1995-97)
Tommy Gregg (1989-1992, 1997)
...or view ALL of them.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com

Here's a list of articles I wrote this week at my other blog, AtlantaBraves.About.Com. All article links open to a new tab/window.

Braves Could Be Post-Christmas Shoppers
-With money in the tank, the Braves are primed to look for good opportunities for 2016. Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, and Ian Kennedy could all be decent targets, though they comes with their fair share of concerns as I look at in the article.

Who are the Top 10 Atlanta Braves to Never Win a Title as a Brave?
-Greg Maddux got one. So did Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. Even Warren Spahn has one. But with only three championships in the World Series era, that leaves big gaps where great players finished their Braves career empty-handed. Andruw Jones? Yep. Dale Murphy? Yep. And they aren't even the top dog.

If I Had a Hall of Fame Vote...
-Moving on from talking about specific Atlanta Braves concerns, I submit my ballot for this year's Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, it has even less value than my vote for President in 2016. Nine players made my ballot this year, including one player in his first year (Ken Griffey Jr.) and another in his last (Alan Trammell). Who else made it and who didn't? Feel free to blast my selections.

Checking in on the Braves Roster as 2016 Nears
-An overview of where the Braves are as we enter 2016. Who joins Julio Teheran and Bud Norris in the rotation? What is the bullpen looking like beyond Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson? We know that Hector Olivera will be in the mix, but where? Is Mallex Smith on the outside looking in?

Who Are The Top 10 Teams in Atlanta Braves Franchise History (updated)
-With #10 and #9 already profiled, yesterday I looked at #8 - the 1891 Boston Beaneaters. As Dayton from Nebraska pointed out, the franchise seems to have some good luck in years ended in 91. Shame we are over 70 years away from the next one. The 1891 Boston Beaneaters were the class of the National League with the complete combination of hitting, pitching, fielding, and the most controversy.