Walk-Off Talk 1.9: The 2018 Bullpen

(Every now and then, we hold informal discussions on something related to the Braves. Today, Ryan Cothran and me, Tommy Poe, look at the bullpen in 2018.)

Ryan,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like the Atlanta Braves won’t make the playoffs this season. And while it’s fun to talk about prospects like Kevin Maitan and Joey Wentz, there will be a major league season in 2018 and the Braves need to build a roster for it. On that roster, there will be a bullpen. So, let’s take a look at what that pen might look like.

Before we start, I have to admit something. For two consecutive years, I was sure the bullpen would be a strength and I was wrong. But I can’t be wrong three consecutive times, can I? 2018 has to be the year it all comes together, right?

To help answer that question, I want to look at where the bullpen is now and what the makeup might look like in 2018. We’ll cover some of the guys we want the Braves to keep, some of them that need to be moved, some of the guys coming up from the farm system, and any specific guys we would like the Braves to target in the free agent market or via trade. I’ll start.

 Vizcaino | By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I think the pen is a dicey position myself. It has a bullpen FIP that has often hovered around 5.00 since the All-Star Break (down to 4.61 now) and while we can blame Jim Johnson for much of that, others also struggled. Even some of the guys that have been so successful are players I'm not so sure I want to rely on moving forward. Jose Ramirez has a 2-run difference between his ERA and FIP and his xFIP is even higher. Can we really count on hitters becoming outs 8-of-10 times they put the ball in play moving forward as has happened for Ramirez this year (.209 BABIP)? Can we really count on Sam Freeman doing the thing he never did before - get left-hand major league hitters out - in 2018? Can we really count on Dan Winkler's arm not falling off from just signing an autograph?

It’s clear that I have my worries about this bullpen in 2018. That said, there are a few names that demand excitement. A.J. Minter has arrived and as long as he's healthy, he's probably the most dominant reliever the Braves have. Akeel Morris's incredible changeup will be in the mix as well - if the Braves remember he's in the organization. Arodys Vizcaino continues to impress, though he’s given up a few too many homers. Still, I’ll take him compared to others. Later, I'll talk about the two or three guys I really like coming up from the minors as well.

Generally, I'm seeing a bullpen that could go either way. Guys like Matt Wisler and Luke Jackson could finally get it. Winkler could stay healthy. Ramirez could continue to battle - and defeat - the SABR Gods. At the same time, there is a probably a better chance none of those things happen. So...that's a downer.

Here’s how I currently fall on things:
Keeping: Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, Winkler (I do like the arm)
Trading: Ramirez and Freeman - if there’s anything decent out there.
Keeping, but on thin ice: Wisler, Jackson, Hursh - next spring is their last chance.
Gone: Johnson (trade, DFA, pretend he’s Akeel Morris and lose him, whatever it takes), Krol, Motte, Brothers

I got the four I am comfortable moving into 2018 with, the three who I will give the last chance to (plus, they have no trade value), and a couple I’ll trade if there’s a good deal out there. I’m dropping veterans like it’s hot. Regardless, this pen needs plenty of work. What do you guys think? Am I wrong to be this pessimistic? Or am I seeing it way too clearly?

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Hey, Tommy!

Super-excited to be doing another Walk-Off Talk, especially one concerning the bullpen as I have a whole heck of a lot to say on the matter. First and foremost, I’ll say that I think we as Braves fans finally see the bullpen turn the corner in 2018.  There’s fruit that is blossoming in front of our eyes, young men becoming staples in the ‘pen, old dudes getting squeezed out, and fringe guys looking bloody awful and naturally being pushed out of roles.  While that all doesn’t sound good, there’s much research and evidence that shows you have to fail before succeeding.  We’re there.

In the 1st section, I’m going to look at the guys that we’ve seen in 2017 1 by 1, try to find underlying reasons for their success or failures, and decipher whether I think they have a shot at the 2018 bullpen.  Ready? Here we go! Who’s a KEEPER? Who’s a HEAPER?

1. Jose Ramirez- KEEPER. 2.28 ERA through 59.1 innings. Like Jason Motte’s early “success” this year in which he was getting roped but the ball was hit right at fielders, ERA can be a fluke stat, especially when we’re talking relievers and 1-2 inning stints at a time. With Motte, every person watching could see it was only a matter of time before it blew up in his face. The day it blew up on him was our beloved country’s birthday and since then he’s had a 9.28 ERA. This brings us to Jose Ramirez.  Like Tommy mentioned above, there’s a lot that’s went right for Jose this year: low BABIP, high LOB%, but there’s also a decrease in hard-contact as soft and medium contact make up for about 70% of the total while hard comes in at 32.3% - a serious decrease from previous years. It’s also worth noting that his groundball rate has increased significantly which, when adding in that his soft/medium contact rate has increased, bodes well for long-term success. Lastly,  Jose’s had an increase in velocity as his average fastball is 97.3, when it was previously 95ish. It’s appropriate to taper expectations for Jose as asking him to duplicate his 2.28 ERA is wish-casting, but increased velo, softer contact, and the ability to keep more balls on the ground makes me think Jose can be a mid-3s ERA in 2018.
2. Jim Johnson- KEEPER. This is tough. I don’t want to see Jim Johnson in a Braves uniform in 2018, but the reality is that it’s not that easy. He’s owed 5MM and the Braves at least need to give him a shot to rebound before throwing in the towel. Give him April in low-leverage situations and let’s see if he can make that sinker sink again - otherwise, his career will be the thing sinking.
3. Arodys Vizcaino- KEEPER. While not as extreme, Vizzy has also benefited from a low BABIP and a high-strand rate, but unlike Jose he’s kept his BB-rate low and his K-rate above 9. He might not be able to sustain a sub-3 ERA yearly, but if I were betting on anyone to do so in 2018, he’d be there.
4. Sam Freeman- KEEPER. The surprise of the bullpen in 2017, there’s not much fluke in Sam’s stat line as everything seems pretty normal. His fastball/slider combo has been downright filthy and he’s under control for 3 more years. No reason not to bring him back.
5. Ian Krol- HEAPER. I’d like to believe that Ian Krol’s mishaps are all bad luck, but it’s just not true. The pitch that made him valuable last year (fastball) has stayed up in the zone this year and has gotten crushed. His K-rate has dropped, BB-rate increased, and there are at least 2 LHPs in front of him in the pecking order. He’d also be entering his 2nd year in arbitration and the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.
6. Luke Jackson- HEAPER. Really, there’s not much to like here. He’s got a pedestrian fastball that has velocity and that’s it.  Luke’s got a lot to figure out in AAA before he even becomes an average MLB reliever.
7. Rex Brothers- HEAPER. Was super excited to see Rex signed this offseason as I’d pined for it. However, it’s just not worked out. His advanced metrics show he’s been really unlucky and hopefully, he can turn it around this last month. For now, like Krol, there’s just more effective LH options available. Like Krol, hopefully, the Braves can trade Rex for something of semi-value.
8. Matt Wisler- HEAPER. For the 3rd year in a row, Wisler just isn’t missing bats. And really, it goes beyond that as he hasn’t missed bats since 2013, which was the last time his ERA was below 4. I don’t know what there is to figure out at AAA and maybe a change of scenery is needed.
9. Jason Hursh- HEAPER.There was this one outing where Hursh was running it up to 96 and pitches were darting every which way. Aside from that, it was a step back year for the former 1st rounder. Like Wisler, his best opportunity might come in another organization.
10. Akeel Morris- KEEPER. Must be the black sheep of the Braves 40-man roster as that is the only reason I see for him to not be in the bigs right now. Good K-rate, walks are coming down, and his 2-pitch mix looks pretty doggone good.
11. Daniel Winkler- KEEPER. In my opinion, this dude’s stuff is downright filthy.  I’ve wondered aloud whether Braves will keep him around due to injury, but if they do, I think he can be a serious 1-inning force.
12. A.J. Minter- KEEPER. We are getting a taste of what he can do now and it’s delicious. A serious powerhouse lefty that’s capable of throwing high-leverage innings to any hitter.

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Ryan,

We mentioned a few names that came up from the minors this season and, as you said, will probably be keepers in 2018. Of course, I’m speaking of Minter and Morris - if he ever apologizes for whatever great offense he did to the Braves front office. Seriously, do as I do with my wife, Akeel. Make your apology sound super sincere even when you have no idea why they are mad. And maybe break down and watch Empire with The Holy John Trinity. Perhaps that last thing only helps with my wife, but it’s worth a shot.

Who might join Minter and Morris next season as young arms arriving in the bigs? Let me preface this by saying that I would love to include Kyle Kinman in this group, but coming off Tommy John surgery, I think that’s wishful thinking. Also, nobody knows where they put Armando Rivero so until we find him (I’ll check the couch), there’s no real reason to include him in this discussion.

Clouse | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

One name that pops out immediately is Corbin Clouse. He logged 41 games between Florida and Mississippi this year, finished with the fourth most strikeouts in the system from those pitchers who didn't start a game, and hitters struggle to get the ball elevated against him due to a heavy 91-93 mph sinker and a wipeout slider. I'm sure this is going to be a common theme with these young arms, but in reference to Clouse, his control can waver from time-to-time. That said, when he's on with his delivery and follow-through, he's a nasty guy to deal with on the mound. Low-end projection, he'll be a left-hand specialist. But I think his stuff plays up to the righties as well. I think he could be a left-handed and maybe a little less effective version of the Tigers' Shane Greene.

Another arm that started in Florida only to finish the season in Mississippi was Devan Watts. Similar story to Clouse, except he's right-handed and has flashed very good control. Same sinker/slider combo, but with a bit more velocity and holy crap, does his sinker move. I've also seen a changeup out of him, though I'm not sure if it'll play in the majors. The Braves are downright scary with how they uncover these small college arms (Tusculum College alum) and develop them into relief prospects. He checks all the boxes you are looking for and should be in the mix come spring training.

Phil Pfeifer, unlike Clouse and Watts, has logged some time in Triple-A. He has a more prototypical heater, though this velocity won't blow you away. He'll mix in a changeup and a late breaking power curve. Sometimes, especially against right-handers, he'll slow the curve down to give the hitter something else to look at as it drops in a more traditional loopy fashion. Picked up from the Dodgers last year, it all boils down to control for the southpaw. He's quick through his delivery and gets a lot of movement on his pitches, though I sometimes feel like he's trying to get through his delivery way too fast and would be better off slowing things down a touch. Either way, there's a lot to like, but you can't walk 16% of hitters in the majors and be an effective reliever.

Finally, I have to mention the guy who came over with Luiz Gohara - Thomas Burrows. The Braves were super cautious with the former Alabama closer (Tide Roll! - right?), but I imagine the dude will be on the quick track next year after spending his Age-22 season in Rome. He struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, got a heavy dose of grounders, and kept the walks to the minimal. Do I think he'll jump from low-A to the majors this spring? No, but could he be in the mix by midseason? Oh, absolutely. He's tried-and-tested in the SEC and has continued his success into pro baseball. And have I mentioned that he's another sinker/slider pitcher. Seriously, with all these sinker/slider guys, we should have never let Roger McDowell go. He'd be giddy with this crop of relievers. Oh, well.

I know there are more arms I haven't mentioned here. Why don't you point them out, Ryan?

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I will do just that, Tommy! But might I say that of the guys you mentioned above, Devan Watts really tickles my fancy.  Some twitter guys had his velo up to 98 at the end of this year. Add to that a low-BB rate, high-K rate, and a 2nd pitch in a slider that varies in MPH and is more of a plus pitch than his fastball, and you’ve essentially got what the Braves wanted out of Shae Simmons without the arm injury history. I’m all-in on THAT!

But enough about you and your guys! What do you think this is, the Tommy show?  I want to talk about my dudes!  Ready?

Jacob Lindgren (LHP)- In this section, Lindgren, in my opinion, is by far the guy to be most excited about.  But keep your pants on, Braves fans.  He went under the knife last year with Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch.  Stolen from the Yankees, Benjamin Chase compares Lindgren’s fastball and slider to Jonny Venters, and from all the video I’ve watched, it’s on the money. Unfortunately, the pitch that likely aided in the injury is Lindgren’s calling card: a slider that simply disappears on hitters. Keep an eye on Lindgren this winter as the Braves could send him somewhere to get some innings in January, but more likely would be a return to action in Spring Training for an Opening Day audition.

Wes Parsons (RHP)- Wes has been in the organization since 2013 and at one point was a top-10 prospect in a very weak system. Now that the Braves have the best farm in the Majors, Parsons has been a bit of an afterthought as he’s been moved full-time to the bullpen. However, it seems to have done him a whole lot of good, revitalizing what seemed to be a dead career as a starting pitcher. Parsons has added a couple MPHs (tops out at 96) to his fastball and rebounded to a 3.15 ERA across 2 levels with healthy. For me though, I’d file him under the same headline as failed starting pitchers turned fringe MLB relievers with Matt Wisler and Jason Hursh. Parsons has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, even if it’s just a sliver of hope.

 Biddle | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle (LHP)- Before Lindgren, there was Biddle. Claimed from the Pirates prior to the 2016 season, Biddle was another guy that the Braves got for nothing due to recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Pirates tried to sneak him through waivers. In his first year of on-field action with the Braves, Biddle worked exclusively out of the bullpen and put up good numbers through 49.2 innings at AA. The BB-rate was below 3 per 9, the K-rate was above a K per inning, and the ERA sub-3. What’s bizarre is the fact that he’s on the 40-man and yet the front office didn’t bring him up for a cup of coffee. There are some undertones in this statement and maybe none of these are correct but I think Braves either don’t see him as a real piece, want to limit his innings, or dislike something in his demeanor. He seems like he could be a useful Major Leaguer and hopefully, he gets his shot next spring.

Caleb Dirks (RHP)-  Dirks was in the Braves system, traded to the Dodgers, and reacquired last year. Dirks is known for his deception as both video and scouting reports show jerky movements before delivering the ball, which has Benjamin Chase comping him to Jordan Walden. The problem is that is where the comp ends. He doesn’t have electric stuff, nor does he have electric velocity. In my opinion, there’d have to be a whole lot go right for him and wrong for others for Dirks to get a shot in the Braves bullpen. Like many fringe guys, his best path to the bigs will likely be outside this pitching-heavy system.

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Love “The Strikeout Machine.” Lindgren and Minter together are going to be hell on the opposition - especially the poor left-handed hitters they leave in their destruction.

Moving on, let’s talk about a couple of guys that might benefit from a switch. Specifically, Mike Foltynewicz and Lucas Sims. I’m glad I can address this subject again because Stephen stole my thunder awhile back with his column on Folty from the beginning of August and I want it back. He pointed out something that many Braves fans rather disagreed with, but that I have had a sinking feeling would be the inevitable conclusion on Folty. Simply put, he's miscast as a starter. That isn't to denigrate Foltynewicz, but over more than 350 innings, we have witnessed a few things about Folty that seem impossible to disagree with. One, he's got lethal stuff. Second, he's in stagnation since joining the Braves. He's improved, sure, but only incrementally. To put it another way, he's gone from a bad rookie pitcher to a mediocre third-year starter. And sure, we can sit here and condition this by saying Folty is really in his first full season as a major league pitcher after spending ten starts in the minors in 2015 and working his way back from injury last year, but that excuse only gets us so far.

It's not that Folty isn't useful in his current role - only that he's not best suited to be a starter. I was doing a Saturday Stats Pack less than a week before Stephen's article where I pointed out that since 2015, only two pitchers (the washed up version of Adam Wainwright and the journeyman Jeremy Hellickson) had higher line-drive rates against them. Line drives turn into hits nearly 70% of the time and many of them also become extra bases. Some, you can argue some of this is due to the fact that Foltynewicz has thrown his fastball nearly 65% of the time and it's a hard fastball. Fair enough, but even the most optimistic fan has to be worried about that line drive rate.

Foltynewicz simply doesn't have the offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. Once they time his fastball, they don't have to worry about being fooled by a changeup. They can then sit dead red and react to the slider and curve, which both are better since his rookie year, but both suffer from repeated viewings of the pitch. Further, as Stephen said a month ago, Folty has never been able to get out lefties. Perhaps if they didn't see him multiple times in the same game - and he was given a chance to unleash his heater at full strength with either of his breaking balls - Foltynewicz could have more luck.

I know it's unpopular, but in my book, it's time to embrace the inevitable here and turn Folty into the Braves' version of Chris Devenski. Like Folty, Devenski has amazing stuff and he's given the opportunity to unleash it without the fear that he needs to hold back for the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings. Moving Folty to the bullpen could hurt a rotation that appears wide open already, but a sign of good management is put your player in the best position to succeed. With Folty, I believe that he'll succeed the most coming out of the bullpen.

On the flip side, Lucas Sims has always had an arm scouts raved about, but the results haven’t been equally as impressive. He seemed to take a step forward this season with the lowest walk rate of his career in his second try at answering the Triple-A question, but also threw a lot of grooved fastballs that were hammered to deep Estonia. The strikeouts were there, but like we've seen with Sims, it was two steps forward, another step back. His first taste of the majors as a starter has been Matt Wisler-like. He's still avoiding the walks, which plagued him the last two years, but he's looked exceedingly meh. If that's possible.

One of the thing that stands out to me the most about Sims so far has been the inability to induce a swing-and-a-miss. The major league average is 10.3%. Sims, as a starter, had a 7.8% swinging-strike percentage. Hitters are making too much contact and those balls are screaming around the park.

The Braves have already announced that Sims will work out of the bullpen for the rest of the season and that might be for the best moving forward. We haven't seen a lot of Sims just as as a reliever, but the early returns are promising. Sims doesn't have the same kind of electric stuff as Foltynewicz does, but he does have lively movement on his pitches when he can repeat his delivery and arm slot - something that is easier said than done with him. Don't believe me? Check this out:

If he cleans that up, his fastball location should be better. Because his curveball is so good, he only needs to be able to locate his fastball and good things will come. In my opinion, that will come in shorter stints - the kind of appearances he had in the Arizona Fall League last year when he reestablished his value.

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Kudos on that, Tommy! I think we all at Walkoff Walk can agree that Folty would be better served to unleash all that holds him back 1 inning at a time. Could you imagine a bullpen that featured Folty coming in throwing triple digit heat? I need to see more at the MLB level on Sims, but I have a hard time distinguishing between what he brings and what Matt Wisler brings. At one point, I thought Wisler could be a stud bullpen piece with a couple of ticks in added velo. Now, not so sure. Hopefully, you’re right and Sims will take to a role in the bullpen.

But now that we are done with the in-house guys, it looks like we have enough candidates to make a pretty good bullpen. However, we all know that if a team starts the year with 15 candidates, they’ll be looking for more come April. So, is there anyone out there on the free agent market that could prove valuable in a 2018 Braves bullpen?  You bet there are and I want to take a look at some of those options.

With Minter, Clouse, S. Freeman, Lindgren, and Biddle, I think the Braves have the LH relievers in-house that they need, but there’s a few free agent RH that I’d like to see the Braves go after for 2018, but before that, let’s make a mental note: I think there’s a really big chance Craig Kimbrel comes home for the 2018 season, therefore the guys I’m looking at aren’t the top-tier, but right below that. Also, it’s worth noting that the guys I’m looking at carry a low-BB rate which is very much needed in a bullpen chock full of young, wild electric arms.

Anthony Swarzak- Fastball has picked up velo and has been downright dominant this year.  Having the best year of his career and a good time to do it.
Addison Reed- In a walk year, Addison Reed is pitching well for the 3rd consecutive year and inducing ground balls at a 40% rate.

The bad contract swap route?

A while back, I posted a waiver trade idea between the Braves and Orioles in which the Orioles brought home Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson. With Johnson tanking, I think that deal as it was is dead and gone.  But Markakis? That could still be something the Orioles are interested in this coming offseason. But maybe the Braves can knock off most of Jim’s contract and send him to them? Here’s the proposal:

Braves get Darren O’Day
Orioles get Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM dollars

O’Day has rebounded from his atrocious start in which his ERA approached 7 close to the midway point. Now, it’s a respectable 3.86. Still, he’s owed 18MM through 2019 and the Orioles could look at this as a peace offering to their fan base to start their rebuild. They’ll clear all of O’Day’s 2019 salary and pay JJ and Kakes 13MM for 2018.

Transaction Tuesday: September Callups with a Gohara Spotlight

With September call-ups in full swing, I decided to do something a little different today and give you guys a super-sized transaction recap that includes today's moves. Usually, I review the last week, but not include the day I publish the recap. However, with there likely being so few moves to go over for the next few weeks - and a big one in today's recap - let's dive into the last eight days.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 29 to September 5. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
(Stephen went over the Brandon Phillips trade and I also profiled Tony Sanchez, who joined the roster on September 1.)

Promoted from Gwinnett: Rex Brothers...I once made the FIP argument about Jim Johnson. I learned my lesson. Despite Brothers' decent-enough FIP of 3.84 compared to his 6.88 ERA, I'm not buying Brothers as a good option for the bullpen.

G-Braves Media

SPOTLIGHT Promoted from Gwinnett: Luiz Gohara (#8)...I loved the trade to go get Gohara, but even I'm shocked by how much he cruised through the minors. This is a guy who had made 12 appearances at low-A coming into this season. My hope was that he would spend half of the year in Florida before a promotion up the ladder to Mississippi. That would put him on a trajectory for a midseason-2018 ETA, but the Braves said "hold my beer" and pushed him to the moon. To his credit, Gohara only responded to such an aggressive push.

In seven starts with Florida, Gohara dominated the Florida State League with a sub-2.00 ERA and over a K an inning. That got Gohara a call-up to Mississippi and despite leaving his first start and spending a week on the DL, Gohara kept rolling with a 2.60 ERA and 60 K's in 52 innings before heading to Gwinnett. There, he logged 35.1 ING over seven starts with 48 K's. Now, he's in the majors. I forgot to say, "Hi, Jerry DiPoto!"

Gohara mixes easy mid-to-late 90 mph heat with a slider that is just a beautiful thing to watch. You can judge how much a slider bites on the kind of stats we get in the majors, but the best way of judging it in in the minors is to watch hitters look mystified and Gohara's slider has that effect on hitters. The reason why Gohara is now in the majors, though, is the improvement we've seen with his changeup. It's not near the other two pitches in effectiveness, but it's good enough now for Gohara to throw with confidence. Without that improvement, we don't see Gohara this year.

The biggest thing with Gohara, no pun intended, is the weight. Can he keep it a manageable level? One of the worst-kept secrets in baseball is that Gohara isn't close to the 210 pounds his bio says he is. If he can't keep his weight from becoming a problem, it could limit him long-term. That said, he's going to have access to the best trainers and dietitians money can buy now that he's reached the majors. If he keeps the weight at pudgy instead of fat, he could be a frontline arm in the major leagues.

Promoted from Gwinnett: David Freitas...If, before the season, you tried to come up with a group of Braves who would make their major league debut this season, Freitas would not be on your list. The former 2010 15th rounder out of Hawaii got his shot because of an injury and despite Sanchez's acquisition, it's Freitas who continues to receive some playing time as Kurt Suzuki's backup. Part of that is due to his familiarity with the young Braves' arms. Nevertheless, Freitas may receive the Anthony Recker-treatment and stick around all offseason hoping the Braves don't add another catcher via free agency.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Max Fried (#21)...Fried was used all kinds of wrong in his earlier promotion, but the Braves brought him back in a starter role and he did just fine against the defending World Champions, limiting the Cubs to one run on four hits over five innings. He struck out four and picked off a batter. Fried will continue to get looks in the rotation moving forward as the Braves search for answers for the 2018 staff.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Micah Johnson...What a crazy few days it's been for Johnson. He was twitter designated for assignment on Friday. What's that, you may ask? That's when you find out via twitter of a transaction involving you. The Braves later said they weren't DFAing Johnson, though it clearly was thought about. Instead, he was in the lineup for Gwinnett the next day and hit a homer. Now, on Tuesday, he received a promotion to the big leagues and looks like he'll stick around for the rest of the season.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Rio Ruiz (#25)...On one side, Ruiz had a worse 2017 than he did 2016 with Gwinnett as his AVG and OBP were quite a bit lower. On the other hand, his ISO was much improved and in the end, it left him with a .341 wOBA compared to the .342 wOBA he posted with the G-Braves the previous season. Ruiz received some playing time with the major league team earlier this year and now, he seems poised to receive the lion-share of playing time for the rest of the season. The .270 BABIP will climb and with it, his batting average. He's walking at a nice rate and has flashed some renewed power since rejoining the team last week. The Braves are looking for a reason not to spend a lot of money or prospects on a third baseman this winter. Whatever Ruiz does this month will help them in deciding which way they go.

Activated: Johan Camargo (#23)...Camargo, Take 2 begins with the cannon-armed youngster having lost his shortstop gig following Dansby Swanson's resurgence. He's not even being handed the third base job after Phillips was traded as the Braves appear committed to getting a long look at Ruiz. And that's probably for the best. Camargo was off to a great start, but the league re-wrote the scouting report during the All-Star Break and since, Camargo was hitting .247/.291/.395. True, that's a small sample size of 86 PA. As was his successful run of 111 PA. Somewhere in the middle of these two distinct splits is the actual Camargo and that's not to slight the player. He's improved quite a lot since last year and looks to be a major league player. However, do I think he's an everyday starter, even at third where I do believe his defense is much better suited? Not really, but I also wouldn't be too upset if the Braves go with Ruiz/Camargo heading into 2018 because I believe the duo can work out for Atlanta.

Activated: Adonis Garcia...He's hitting .245/.280/.348. The other day, someone tried to argue that keeping Garcia over Micah Johnson was the better move because of options. Foolishly, I failed to reply, "He's hitting .245/.280/.348. That's not an option." Granted, it's a little trolling because he was speaking of minor league options, but still. Joke. Landed.

Activated: Luke Jackson...The best thing about Jackson this season has been his sitcom-worthy bromance with Lane Adams. That's probably not something you should say about a major league pitcher. He's still only 26, but Jackson throws one of the most boring 95 mph fastballs in the league.

Activated: Ian Krol...I don't even want to talk about this anymore.

Activated and put on 60-day DL: Danny Santana...Apparently, Santana is still struggling with a quad injury and after being activated off the disabled list, the Braves thought better and placed Santana on the 60-day DL. That's just fine in my book as Santana has played too much since joining the Braves. Since being acquired, Santana has a .245 OBP and over a month of action before hitting the DL, he played in 27 games (10 starts) while slashing .161/.175/.286. That was 58 PA of essentially a pitcher who occasionally pops a homer. Sometimes, you have to Snit-proof the roster and giving Brian Snitker a player like Santana is asking for trouble.

DL'd: Tyler Flowers...The expectation after the trade and subsequent activation of Sanchez was that Flowers might miss significant time -  potentially the rest of the year - but he's expected back by this weekend. So, there's that. Flowers has significantly cooled off after his tremendous start, hitting .208/.311/.426 since July 4, but he still has the inside track on beginning 2018 as the starting catcher.

DL'd: Jason Motte...The way Brian Snitker was using his bullpen, it was Arodys Vizcaino, Jim Johnson, and Jose Ramirez from the 7th to 9th innings with the lead and before that, Snitker went to his B-Team of Jackson, Krol, and Motte. That sounds like the worst law firm ever. Despite a FIP climbing to 6, Motte kept getting crunch time games while other younger and more talented arms pitched for Gwinnett. Fortunately, that looks to have stopped as the Braves decided his oblique was strained after giving up his sixth homer of the year last week. Funny how that happens. Motte had walked a batter in eight straight contests and he's likely thrown his last pitch for the Braves.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Sal Giardina...It seems like Giardina has been around for eight years, but it's actually only been half that. He made both his Double-A and Triple-A debuts this season and hit .264/.348/.329 over 161 PA. He's an organizational guy who can play the infield corners in a pinch.

Promoted from Mississippi: Dan Reynolds...Signed out of the independent leagues last winter, Reynolds was a solid, though unspectacular pitcher for Mississippi before a late-season promotion to Gwinnett. A veteran of six minor league seasons in the Angels' system before 2016, Reynolds still walks a few too many hitters and he'd probably get a pass on that if he threw with his left arm instead of his right arm. A minor league free agent, the Braves may not have room for Reynolds in 2018.

Phillips | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Activated: Evan Phillips...Sadly, some struggles late in the season have pushed Phillips' full-season numbers back up to ugly after he worked so hard to make them respectable. Phillips started the year much like he ended it - by giving up a bunch of runs. He surrendered 14 in his first five games (5 ING) but rebounded with a 3.35 ERA and a strikeout an inning over his next 32 games and 43 innings. Mixed in there was a promotion to Gwinnett at the end of May. However, he gave up five runs over his final 3.1 innings, which also includes a trip to the DL. Overall, give him a 6.14 ERA on the year.

Recalled and Optioned: Jason Hursh...Cheer up, Jason. This was the seventh and probably the last time you will be optioned to the minors this season. Hursh was the 26th man during a recent doubleheader and will probably rejoin the Braves once he completes his mandatory 10 days in the minors following a demotion. Hursh has a 4.30 ERA in the minors this year with nearly a strikeout an inning. He's allowed six runs in 10.2 ING over nine games in the majors.

DFA and Outrighted: Enrique Burgos...There was a time this year where it looked like Burgos was on the fast track for a promotion, but things went real bad over his last eight outings. In 5.2 innings, he gave up 11 runs, walked seven, and struck out eight. The Braves may have brought him down to Atlanta for a September look before his August stumbles. Now, he's likely thrown his last pitch as a Brave.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Raymar Navarro...He never pitched for Mississippi and the Cuban-born right-hander finishes his second year much like his first - with underwhelming numbers. With Danville, Rome, and Florida, Navarro has a 4.56 ERA in 51.1 innings. We'll see if he stays around for 2018.

Florida
Promoted from Danville: Jaret Hellinger...A 20th rounder with some hype two years ago, Hellinger received a brief run in Rome before the D-Braves' season began, but did little with it. He became one of Danville's most consistent arms after that, though, and finished the year with a two-inning appearance in Florida. Hellinger was a decent "get" out of Ola High School in McDonough, GA in 2015, but it's time we see some results. I imagine he'll receive an assignment with Rome to open 2018.

Promoted from Danville: Gary Schwartz...I've only seen him referred to as "Garrison," but either way, Schwartz had a big August for Danville and was awarded a three-game tryout in Florida to end the year. He didn't do so hot there with a 1-for-9 showing with a steal, a walk, and five K's. I imagine he'll head down to Rome to open 2018 and the former Grand Canyon University standout will get a shot to get back on track.

Promoted from GCL: Hayden Deal...I wrote about him a good deal earlier today in my GCL recap. Deal was added to Florida either for roster purposes or an extra arm, but he was never used.

DL'd: Kevin Mathews...The former Texas first rounder only logged 24.1 innings after joining the organization in early July. He gave up 22 hits, struck out 22, and walked 22. Somewhere, Jayson Stark just got excited. After a great start in Rome and a decent spot start at the end of July in Gwinnett, things kind of went bad in Florida for Matthews. The lefty has long has had a high-projection arm, but has had very few positive results with it. It'll be interesting to see if he's back in 2018.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Walter Borkovich...A Walk-Off Walk favorite, The Bork's first season after being undrafted out of Michigan State went rather well. Over 27.1 ING spread across three minor league stops, Borkovich finished with a 2.30 ERA, over a strikeout an inning, and just three walks. That comes out to a 10 strikeout per walk ratio, which is amazing. Now, can he do it again in 2018? That'll be fun to watch.

Promoted from Danville: Riley Delgado...This year's Marcus Mooney (i.e. high work ethic, grit, short on projection) is Delgado, a middle infielder out of Middle Tennessee State. He was picked in the ninth round to save money and in 22 games in Danville, hit just .232/.299/.246. He's a smooth fielder, both at second and shortstop, but you're simply not going to get much out of his bat. Probably will stick around in the system for a few years as a bench player.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Bladimir Matos...This was the third time Matos was demoted to Danville. The number of times he pitched for the D-Braves? Zero. Roster manipulation FTW!

Nothing doing for the GCL and DSL rosters, whose seasons are over.

Transaction Tuesday: Minter, Dustin Peterson, Evan Phillips

Very quiet week in transactions and a couple of major league pitchers start or continue rehab assignments while a major prospect is brought to the majors. Of course, things will get more active over the next few days as any waiver trades are completed before rosters expand for September and a number of DL'd players return.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 21 to August 28. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta

Credit: Fox Sports

Promoted: A.J. Minter (#24)...I went over Minter's actual promotion when it happened, but let's look at his first two appearances. Unsurprisingly, they were spaced out with three off days in between outings. I expect the Braves to continue to bring him along slowly as they have never pushed him too hard. He averaged 96.7 mph with a high of 98.3. His slider was in the low 90's range and already looks like it's going to devastate major league hitters. I don't think we'll see too much from Minter this September as the Braves monitor his usage. That said, a good last month will put him in the driver's seat for a big role on next year's roster.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Max Fried (#20)...I was a fan of the call-up until I saw how he was utilized. He was basically another long reliever rather than a guy being given a chance to pitch meaningful innings. Because of that, I'm glad he was demoted to the minors and he made his first Triple-A start last week with a solid four-inning start where he struck out six, walked two, and allowed one hit. He'll probably get a second shot in the majors and maybe even will get a start down the stretch. His chance to contribute for real comes next year when he'll battle for a rotation spot with Lucas Sims, Sean Newcomb, and Luiz Gohara.

DFA'd: Jim Johnson...Oh, wait, this didn't happen. I should erase this.

Gwinnett
Activated: David Peterson...I mentioned Sims before and he's one of three players left from the 2012 draft. Connor Lien, who has been abysmal this year also came from that class and as did David Peterson. Picked out of the College of Charleston, Peterson skipped rookie ball and over a half-dozen seasons, the righty has been fairly durable with questionable peripherals. He still has a year before minor league free agency and provides a bit of stability with nearly 80 games at Gwinnett the last three years.

SPOTLIGHT Activated: Dustin Peterson (#21)...It has been the season from hell for Peterson, who broke a hamate bone in his hand during spring training and has just never been able to get going. It's good to see that his DL trip was short as he missed just a week, but his return was basically a microcosm of his entire season. He went 1-for-4 with a single. The injury this spring has sapped him of most of his power, which was a big reason Peterson became a prospect to watch last year.

It's not all bad for Peterson. This is just his Age-22 season and he's always played young for his level, which has muted his production. The raw potential that pushed the Padres to make him the 50th overall selection in the 2013 draft is still there and occasionally, like last year, we are able to witness what it could look like. That season, he hit .282/.343/.431 while setting career highs in a variety of categories. It was the kind of season talent evaluators has waited for since 2013, yet never saw. And more, the expectation was that Peterson was just scratching the surface of the kind of prospect he could be. Would a .295/.360/.475 season be next? Would he reach 20 homers for the first time in his career? Would he push his way onto the major league team?

Unfortunately, one errant pitch this spring and a slow recovery have made the answer to those three questions a resounding "no." He'll be ticketed for a return to Gwinnett in 2017 after being placed on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5. Peterson still could end up being a nice little prospect capable of putting up David Peralta-type numbers or he might be a good bench/platoon guy. By the way, that still pays a good amount. Either way, with a crowded outfield situation in the majors and Ronald Acuna on his way up, Peterson looks lost in the shuffle for now.

Rehab: Luke Jackson...Just a short trip to the DL this season for Jackson, who last pitched in the majors on August 18. Ten days later, he worked two/third's of an inning for Gwinnett and gave up a homer and a walk. The Braves had some high hopes for Jackson, but he's been more-or-less forgetful this season for Atlanta. In 40.2 ING, he has a 16% K%, 9% BB%, a 4.36 FIP, and a 5.20 xFIP. He's given up a lot of great contact, which in turn makes him unreliable out of the bullpen. He'll be back next year, but he'll need big-time improvement to stick around for very long with so many more intriguing arms on the way.

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DL'd: Evan Phillips...A 2015 pick, Phillips reached Triple-A this year for the first time and has struggled mightily with his control as his walk rate is 15%. I guess that's not too much worse than the 11.7% he was pulling at Mississippi, but neither rate is good. Phillips gets a good amount of grounders from his heavy fastball/slider combo and if he can show more consistency, he could be a guy who pushes his way into the bullpen mix next season. One last note if you look at his stats is an 8.14 ERA at Mississippi before the promotion up the ladder. Most of that came in his first five outings, where he surrendered 14 runs. In his last 16 innings with the M-Braves, he gave up just five runs.

Mississippi
Demoted from Gwinnett: Sal Giardina...The catcher/corner infielder did okay in a three-game run through Gwinnett. He went 4-for-7, all singles, and reached base two more times via a walk and a hit-by-pitch. He returns to Mississippi, where he was hitting .248 with a homer over 119 PA earlier this season. Giardina screams "future coach" for some reason.

Florida
Rehab: Ian Krol...I was a big fan of Krol's heading into 2017 as I saw a guy who made a huge step forward during last year. However, the wheels have come off in a big way (FIP up 2.43, xFIP up almost two whole runs). Seemingly overnight, he reverted back to the guy the Tigers traded at the end of 2015. Since coming back after a trip to the DL, Krol's tossed four scoreless innings over three outings with the GCL club and Florida, but the arbitration-eligible southpaw will need to dominate in September if he has any hope of being a Brave in 2018 - and even if he did, the Braves may still pass.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Bladimir Matos...More roster manipulation involving the same cast of characters I've written about numerous times in the past.

Demoted to Danville and Promoted Back: Troy Conyers...It was Conyers' second demotion to Danville. He's yet to pitch for them.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Walter Borkovich...Yawn. Another move for roster management purposes.

GCL
Promoted from DSL: Jose Montilla...One of the few constants for a bad DSL staff, Montilla did just enough to keep his team in most games, though he had some truly uninspiring metrics (11% strikeout rate, 5% K-BB%). Hence the 90-point divide between his FIP and his 3.07 ERA. Nevertheless, Montilla deserved at least a shot at continuing to beat the metrics and his first start in the GCL went pretty well. He tossed five scoreless innings, giving up two hits, a walk, and striking out four - a new personal high. That last part had to be surprising because Montilla went seven appearances and 22.2 ING earlier this season with four total strikeouts.

Promoted from DSL: Filyer Sanchez...It's been a long time coming for Sanchez, who made his professional debut shortly after signing at the end of May of 2015. Over three seasons in the DSL, he's always maintained pretty solid numbers (2.48 ERA over 119.2 ING, 2.4 BB/9, no homers allowed), but because he doesn't have the big strikeout numbers, the lefty has been slow to work himself into the Braves' plans beyond the DSL. Finally, after 57 appearances in the DSL, Sanchez was brought stateside and appeared in his first game for the GCL Braves. It could not have gone any better. Following Krol in a rehab assignment, Sanchez tossed three scoreless innings with a K. Only an error by Braulio Vasquez kept the outing from being perfect. Vazquez would make up for it with a RBI double to break a 3-3 tie and the GCL club would hold on from there, giving Sanchez a win. Like I said, the rate stats aren't tremendous, but three years with an FIP under 3.00 deserve at least a shot to sink-or-swim.

Promoted to Rome and Demoted Back: Hayden Deal...Undrafted out of Presbyterian College, Deal was a solid reliever in the Big South before finishing up his collegiate career as a starter during his senior year. Following the draft, Billy Best, one of the Braves scouts who keeps finding guys no one else wants, kept Deal from putting too many plans in place for a post-baseball life by signing Deal after a bullpen session. A fan of the Braves growing up. Deal's staple is control - something that has continued professionally. He was hit up pretty good in the GCL prior to a promotion to Rome last week as the SALLY squad was desperate for a fresh arm. The outing couldn't have gone better for Deal, who faced one over the minimum during a career-high four innings. He also struck out four, one off his career-best. Deal and the aforementioned Borkovich are easy to root for as undrafted free agents and to this point, both look like their professional dreams are hardly over.

DSL
Activated from the restricted list: Erick Abreu...A year after being suspended for Stanozolol, Abreu made his return just in time to get into one game for the Dominican Summer League Braves before their season came to a close. He went three scoreless innings and got the win in relief after the Braves plated 17 total runs from the third inning on. Signed in January of 2016 as an 18-year-old, Abreu pitched in 16 games in the DSL last year. He got plenty of K's (31 in 31 innings) but also walked a small village (27 total). Seems to be another in the line of players who fit the "teach him some control before he kills someone" category. Will turn 20 on New Year's Day so his spot in the organization is dicey, but it would appear that they kept him through a year-long suspension for a reason.

Baseball's Weirdest Rule 5 Situation

What better way to explain service time than with the hottest prospect to come through the Braves system since Jason Heyward? For that matter, what better way to explain arbitration than with the strangest case that we've seen over the last number of years?

In professional baseball, you earn two different kinds of "time." The one that everyone gets from a rookie-league ballplayer to R.A. Dickey relates to how long you have been a professional. This is especially important when it comes to things like the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency. For instance, after seven seasons in the minors, you can become a minor league free agent. Oddly, we call them "six-year minor league free agents" despite needing seven years. Baseball is strange.

The other kind of time a player earns - which is far more important to this article - is service time. This refers to each day spent in the major leagues. Under the new CBA, there are 187 days to fit in a 162-game schedule. However, you are still credited with a day of service time during those off days. In fact, a full season is referred to as 172 days in the major leagues - which did not change in the CBA despite the added days to the MLB calendar year. Think of this way - as long as a player didn't use an option that season (i.e. 20 days in the minors), he likely earned a year of service time if he was with the team in April.

You receive service time while on the active roster, the disabled list, the restricted (or suspended) list, and...well...any list. As long as you haven't been optioned to the minors, your service time is climbing. Hence why some teams have tried to play the system against itself. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs waited exactly 13 days to call up Kris Bryant. Under the previous CBA, there were 184 days in a calendar season. As Bryant was not on the 40-man roster to begin the season, by pushing his debut off nearly two weeks, the 2015 Rookie of the Year received 171 days of service time in 2015. That's a day short of a full season. Chicago said all the right things about Bryant needing to work on some parts of his game, but the decision was made with the 2021 season in mind. Had the Cubs opened the season with Bryant on the major league roster, he would have become a free agent after 2020 as players with six years of service time in the majors at the end of any given season can become free agents should they not be signed beyond that season. Believing it was more beneficial to them to keep him in the minors, they did just that.

Should the Braves follow suit with Ronald Acuna? There is a lot of talk about bringing him up in September and why not? Over three stops from High-A ball to Triple-A, Acuna has hit .320/.374/.539 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 20 homers, and 37 steals. His numbers have improved at each stop and despite being about eight years younger than the International League, Acuna has an OPS of 1.021 with Gwinnett over 34 games. He's not only the top prospect in the Braves' system but has a solid claim to the best prospect in baseball and he's just 19 years-old.

Bringing him up now would sacrifice a potential extra year of team control. There are other concerns, but provided Acuna stays in the majors, he would reach free agency after 2023. If the Braves waited until sometime in late April of next season to bring Acuna up, they would follow the Bryant route and gain an extra year of team control while merely sacrificing a few weeks of the 2018 season with their top prospect in Triple-A. The Braves have historically not concerned themselves with that, though. I mentioned Heyward and he opened his rookie season in the starting lineup on opening day. By that September, Freddie Freeman joined the team for a cup of coffee. Last August, Dansby Swanson was surprisingly brought to the majors, which started his clock early. In fact, the last time I remember the Braves really concerning themselves with service time came in 2009.

Tommy Hanson was absolutely dominant with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi in 2008 as a 21-year-old. He finished the season by crushing the Arizona Fall League with a 0.63 ERA over 28.2 innings and 49 strikeouts. Over 14.2 innings the following spring, Hanson had a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. But it was Jo-Jo Reyes who was named the fifth starter. Predictably, he failed and in mid-May, the Braves made a change. Hanson had a 1.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 47.2 ING over his first eight starts, but the Braves passed on bringing him up from Gwinnett. They instead called on Kris Medlen, who had been nearly as excellent but wasn't considered a top prospect. Medlen would get three starts until June 7, when the Braves finally brought up Hanson.

All of this was done for one reason - arbitration. Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson as the fifth starter, not only would he have gotten to free agency a season quicker, he would have gotten paid a lot quicker as well. Players become arbitration-eligible after three seasons on a MLB roster. The Braves passed and continued to pass even after gaining the extra year of team control. That was done to get him past the expected date for Super 2 arbitration-eligible players. Super 2 refers to players with two years of service time plus a lot more. Basically, you group all of the players with more than two years of service time, but less than three years in a given season. You take the top 22% of that list and it gives you a threshold. Anyone above that threshold reaches arbitration early. That threshold differs, but it typically lands somewhere in the 2 years and 120-to-150 days area. Remember Bryant from earlier? Despite the fact that the Cubs bought an extra year before free agency, he will still reach salary arbitration this year. And the three years after it. Hence why Super 2 guys can get really expensive. Since arbitration-eligible players rarely fail to receive a nice bump in pay, it gets pretty costly the third time around even for just good players. Add a fourth year and players often are getting plenty of bank. One such player for the Braves this offseason will be Mike Foltynewicz, who will likely have 2 years and 163 days of service time. While the Super 2 cutoff hasn't been decided for 2017, it's unlikely to be higher than 163 days.

The entire reason I bring up service time and arbitration today is related to Dan Winkler. Back in December of 2014, the Braves selected Winkler in the Rule 5 draft. They knew he would miss of the next season after having Tommy John surgery. When a Rule 5 player is injured and misses time the next season, they still have to log at least 90 days on the active roster to fulfill their Rule 5 eligibility. If they fail to reach 90 days in their first season as a Rule 5 guy, they must finish off the remaining time the next season before being eligible to be optioned to the minors. In Winkler's case, as we know, it gets complicated.

Winkler was activated off the DL in 2015 on September 10. Between that day and the end of the season, he logged 24 days on the active roster. The following season, he was on the active roster for eight days before fracturing his elbow. In two seasons, he had 32 days of service time - or nearly two months short of what he would need to satisfy the Rule 5 requirement of 90 days.

The right-hander is currently on his second rehab assignment this season, which has required approval because pitchers only receive 30 days on rehab assignments. Winkler's most recent rehab assignment began 12 days ago. If he has been granted a second rehab assignment of 30 days, the Braves would be able to keep him in the minors until September 1 without having to make a move with the current roster. The season runs through October 1, which would get Winkler to 31 days of active roster time for this season and 55 overall. That leaves an additional 35 days of active roster time he would need to reach in 2018 to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements.

But...he'll also be arbitration-eligible. Yep, even though Winkler has thrown four innings in the majors, he'd be eligible for arbitration even if he went back on the DL for the rest of the year. Earlier, I said players get credit for service time while on the DL. Even though Winkler has pitched 13 times this season in the minors, it's all came under rehab assignments, which means he's still on the major league DL. That would mean Winkler would reach 172 days of service time this season on or about September 15, which would give him three years of service time in the major leagues.

But why stop this extra-strength convoluted exercise now? Let's go over the Braves' options.

I don't remember a case even close to this so this is my best-educated guess.

The Braves could non-tender Winkler, but as far as I know it, non-tender players become official in early December. That might be longer than the Braves would like to go with Winkler taking up space on their roster if they already plan on getting rid of him.

Atlanta could outright Winkler to the minors, but there are a few hang-ups there as well. One, to get him off the 40-man roster, they would need to waive him, offer him to the rest of the league, and, provided he passed through waivers, offer him back to the Rockies. If the other 29 teams passed, the Braves could attempt to outright him to the minors, but as an arbitration-eligible player, Winkler would have the right to elect free agency. As a free agent, the Braves could still try to sign him as a minor league free agent if they so wanted. For that matter, they could simplify the process and release Winkler and then sign him. If he accepted an assignment to the minors after being outrighted or signed as a minor league free agent and either came before the Rule 5 draft, he'd actually be eligible in the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

The Braves could also elect to offer arbitration. After all, how much could Winkler ask for and what could his agent argue? That he's been a good patient? For his part, Winkler has looked much sharper since beginning another rehab stint with Gwinnett and was very impressive to open last season. As he is unlikely to receive significantly more than the major league minimum through arbitration, he still could be a good bet to receive an arbitration tender.

Fortunately, few cases are crazier than Winkler and most are much simpler. Joining Winkler and Foltynewicz among this year's arbitration-eligible players for the first time will be Sam Freeman, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson. Another player, Jose Ramirez, seems like a good bet to also reach Super 2 status. Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, Arodys Vizcaino, and Matt Adams will also be arbitration-eligible. Much of this group seems likely to receive a non-tender - including Winkler. Should that happen, the next team won't even have to worry about Rule 5 eligibility with Winkler. That should keep the complications down to a minimal.

Transaction Tuesday: Ventura, Winkler, Wright, Ramos

What a busy, busy week for the Braves. Some of the moves, we reported on as they happened, but many more occurred as the Braves brought back a guy from the Mexican League, demoted a few underperforming pitchers, and continued to aggressively push rookie league players up a level.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 1 to August 7. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
We've reported on a number of these moves already so I won't go too far into them anymore. To read about Ozzie Albies' arrival in the bigs, you can click here and here. The latter link has information also on Lucas Sims, who came up with Albies last Tuesday. We also addressed the callup of Max Fried and the trade of Sean Rodriguez this week. Surprisingly, the week after the trading deadline was much more interesting than the week before.

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Recalled: Jace Peterson...Peterson's Triple-A numbers took a nose dive over the recent few weeks, but he's probably happy to be back in the majors anyway. He's been bad this season with Atlanta - there's no doubting that. His BABIP is 30 points below where it should be and an 11% line-drive rate is criminally low. Whiffing on 11.5% of his swings aren't helping, either. It's tough being a bench guy in the majors - especially when you aren't used to it. Hard to play yourself out of a slump when you may only get five plate appearances in a week. Peterson might become Super 2 arbitration-eligible this season, which would make the Braves even less likely to bring him back in 2018 without a strong finish. He has added two pinch hits since being brought back, making him 3-for-3 in his last three pinch hit appearances counting the homer he hit before being sent down in mid-July.

Activated: Jason Motte...At some point, the Braves need to move on from Motte. I assume they are hoping he'll attract enough trade attention with a 3.81 ERA in 33 games and his veteran presence, but Motte's peripherals are not solid beyond his typical good control. While the 35-year-old (who the Rockies are paying nearly $5M to not pitch for them) takes up space on the major league roster, younger arms who could be in the mix for the 2018 roster are losing out.

Traded to Reds: Randy Ventura (#34)...When this trade was announced, many were quite upset about it. Like me in high school, they struggled to let a crush just slip away and not obsess over it. To be sure, Ventura is a prospect. He came on the scene back in 2017 when he hit .329/.421/.394 with 55 steals in 58 games. But that was in the DSL, which is notorious for making stars out of average players who crash-and-burn when brought stateside. Ventura hit .284 last year with a good OBP of .358 but stole just 15 bases. He's almost doubled that total this year with a .294 average before the trade but has also struck out a lot. And after a great start, he has tapered off considerably. Since May 15, Ventura had a .273/.317/.309 clip with 59 Ks in 267 PA (22%), which is not a good profile for a player with his tools. On the plus side, he's still very young (just turned 20) and the 29 steals along with the ability to play a decent center field have value. My thing, though, is the $1.25M the Braves received in international signing bonus space the Braves added is well worth what amounts to the seventh or eighth best outfield prospect in the system when it comes to raw potential. As Bennett Hipp tweeted, "This fan base is going to implode when actual good prospects are traded." Ventura was a nice prospect who demanded at-bats, but did he have a higher ceiling than those who he was blocking? Debateable, but I lean toward no.

Optioned: Jason Hursh (#42)...Starting with his cut from spring camp, Hursh has been optioned six times this year. His numbers aren't that great and considering the Braves' refusal to give him a longer look, Hursh is a prime candidate to be designated for assignment this winter to open up a spot on the 40-man roster. It's unfortunate because Hursh has improved notably over the 2015-16 version that looked like a wasted top pick, but Atlanta doesn't appear to have that much faith in Hursh.

Optioned: Micah Johnson...I understand why Johnson was optioned. Just not so sure I agree with it. He got three pinch-hit appearances while up with the Braves, who are making the conscious choice that Danny Santana is a better fit than Johnson. It makes sense. Santana plays more positions and is a switch-hitter. I don't have to like it even if it makes sense.

Optioned: Akeel Morris (#29)...Again, I get why Morris got the boot back to the minors - he had options and others didn't. I just disagree that sending Morris to Gwinnett is best for the Braves. I don't know if Morris will be in the long-term picture for the Braves, but I wouldn't mind finding out. The guy struck out 28% of opposing hitters in the majors. To me, that buys some time. Sure, his xFIP was really high and he allowed an insane amount of fly balls, but I'd like to see if those numbers normalize with more time. At the end of the day, this year's Braves aren't going to the playoffs. We know that. With Sims and Fried in the majors, seems like a good time to also have some of these more borderline Top 30 prospects up trying to help their cause for the 2018 roster.

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DL'd: Ian Krol...Ah, that tricky oblique strain. It landed Bartolo Colon on the DL in June and shut down Arodys Vizcaino last July. Odd that all three were struggling at the time. Krol has been just abysmal this season - a year after looking like a potential building block for the Braves. I'd like to say it was the increased cutter usage, but it's simply bad pitching. You can't go from pitching in the zone 47% of the time to 40% and not suffer as a result. Depending on how long he needs to recover from his oblique strain, Krol, who is arbitration-eligible, may have thrown his final pitch for the Braves.

Gwinnett
Signed and assigned to Gwinnett: Manny Barreda...Three days before Christmas back last winter, the Braves signed Barreda. He earned a mention in one of my offseason articles on minor league signings (the same one with Lane Adams). Another former Yankees arm, Barreda has also pitched in the Brewers organization and spent most of the last two years with Tijuana in the Mexican League on loan from first Milwaukee and now Atlanta. His debut with Gwinnett last week was his Triple-A debut and he struggled with his control, which is a recurring problem. When he's on, Barreda can be very good. Example: he threw a no-hitter last winter for Los Mochis. But he's not frequently on and that's why, in his eleventh season, he's finally made it to Triple-A. He works off a low 90's fastball with some breaking stuff that often decides just what kind of game it will be for him.

Activated: Kyle Kubitza...It's been a trying season for Kubitza, who was awful through two months of action but did hit .297/.394/.429 over the final 30 games before landing on the DL. No longer a prospect, Kubitza cycles between the corner infield and outfield positions along with some time at DH.

Rehab: Dan Winkler...Rehab 2.0. Winkler memorably (sadly) fractured his elbow last April after looking like he might be a surprise pitcher out of the pen for the Braves. He finally got back to action in mid-June, but his pitches lacked the Winkler stuff and movement that made the Braves spend a Rule 5 pick all the way back in 2014 on him. The Braves asked and were granted permission for an extended rehab stint and shut Winkler down for a month before he returned on Sunday and threw a two-strikeout inning out of the pen for Gwinnett. Winkler's one of those guys that the Braves would love to get a look at over the final handful of weeks to see if they want to keep him. He still has over a month-and-a-half left to satisfy his Rule 5 obligations. Interestingly, he's probably going to be arbitration-eligible because of all of the time spent on the major league DL accruing service time.

DL'd: Rhiner Cruz...A Rule 5 pick by the Astros back in 2012, Cruz got into 72 games with Houston over two seasons before being cut two years later so that he could make some real money in Japan. He then spent last year in the Mexican League before signing with the Braves this offseason. The righty with great velocity has been a solid arm out of the Gwinnett pen this year with 54 K's in 43 innings and pretty decent control to go with it.

DL'd: Caleb Dirks (#40)...Coming into 2017, Dirks had spent all of nine days on the DL. This is now his second trip to the DL and he missed nearly a month before. A lot of us that follow the Braves' minor league system had high hopes that Dirks might spend time in the big league pen, but his numbers haven't been nearly as dominant (4.23 FIP/3.85 xFIP) as we've grown to expect from the young righty. In four games since returning from the DL, Dirks gave up ten hits, six earned runs, walked one, struck out three, and surrendered three homers in five innings. This from a guy who gave up three homers in 61 innings all of last year. Hopefully, this trip to the DL helps.

Mississippi
Assigned: Connor Joe...I mentioned the Sean Rodriguez trade already. Just wanted to point out where Joe landed after the trade. He'll probably make his Mississippi debut today as the M-Braves play a double header.

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Promoted from Florida: Josh Graham...ERA for a reliever can be incredibly misleading. Just ask Graham. His ERA with Florida was sitting at 4.69. This was mainly a product of two awful outings back-to-back in late May and another stinker on July 16. He gave up five to the Palm Beach Cardinals before Clearwater lit him up for a quartet of runs six days later. A month-and-a-half later, he gave up five more in one outing. That's 14 ER in 3.2 ING. Take those three out and his ERA over the other 28 outings? A 2.23 ERA in 44.2 ING. That's more fitting for a guy with a 27% K-rate, 9% walk rate, and no home runs given up while he maintains a 54% groundball rate. That all comes out to a 2.32 FIP/2.97 xFIP. Now, you can't completely take those three games away - they happened after all - but they help add context to the fact that Graham deserved this promotion. The former 2015 fourth rounder struck out two in his Double-A debut last week.

Activated: Luis Valenzuela...Acquired for the since-retired Jonny Gomes, Valenzuela has spent much of his time with the organization on the DL. He was hitting the ball extremely well when he was acquired but has an OPS in the two seasons after the trade of around .670. He can play up the middle along with sliding over to third base, but unless the bat again starts to show, Valenzuela is just a guy in the system.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Mauricio Cabrera...Things just keep going from bad to worse for Cabrera. After missing some action, Cabrera was demoted to Mississippi and walked three in his first outing there. His second outing didn't go much better, but he did throw a perfect frame on Saturday. It was his first perfect inning in over a month. Out of options, Cabrera will need a strong August to avoid potentially being designated for assignment this offseason.

DL'd: Michael Mader...After not appearing since June 23, Mader finally landed on the DL this week. It's been a year since the Braves acquired Mader from the Marlins and in 34 games (six starts) since, he has 76 K's in 86.2 innings and quite a few walks as well. Rule 5-eligible after the season, the Braves will have an interesting choice to make with Mader. With his fastball/curve mix, Mader could make for a decent lefty reliever if he develops just right. But Mader hasn't really opened any eyes and his walk rate has doubled since last season along with a declining groundball rate. It makes me think Mader will be left unprotected where a team might bite on the prospect of using Mader as a LOOGY.

Florida
Promoted from GCL: Kyle Wright (#3)...How far the Braves push Wright this season remains to be seen. After three starts in the GCL, Wright arrived in Florida last week and made a pair of starts there. His debut went perfect and he allowed no baserunners over two innings. His next game out didn't go quite as well, but he still allowed just a single and walked one. Both times, he was limited to two innings or less than 30 pitches. After 103.1 high-profile innings with Vanderbilt, chances are Wright won't throw much more than a few dozen innings - if that. Regardless, every time out, he has the focus of Braves Country as fans wonder just how close Wright is to putting his hat in the ring for a spot in Atlanta.

Demoted from Mississippi: Junior Rincon...Another week, another transaction for Rincon. He's been in the organization for just a month, but he's quickly become one of the always-on-the-move pitchers who fills in wherever he's needed. Rincon, who has also pitched in the Marlins and Brewers' organizations, carries a 4.63 ERA over 11.2 innings into this week, but on the plus side, he's K'd 17.

Demoted from Mississippi: Matt Withrow (#45)...At first, this was a "rehab assignment," but the next day, there were reports Withrow had been assigned. One of those designations could be a typo or it could have something to do with a less-than-thrilling rehab appearance with the Fire Frogs. In a 2.1 inning appearance out of the pen, Withrow allowed five baserunners. He limited the damage to just one run, but retiring seven and putting five guys on won't amaze anyone. Withrow had a bipolar-like beginning to the year before hitting the DL. First five starts: 2.08 ERA. Next five starts: 7.25 ERA. He threw fewer strikes and what strikes he did throw were sent sailing to the outfield and beyond. Withrow is a talented pitcher with an inconsistent feel for the strike zone. Perhaps he'll find it in Florida.

DL'd: Joe Rogers...A fifth rounder by the Tigers all the way back in 2012, Rogers hasn't been good since '15. At 26 years-old with a 6.29 ERA between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi, it's a surprise he still has a job.

Released: Andrew Daniel...This is the progression of Daniel's OPS from 2014 to now: .917, .752, .686, .597. Now, I'm not brilliant by any means, but that seems bad. Signed to give Mississippi some depth, Daniel washed out there before a recent demotion to Florida, where he continued to struggle. An 11th rounder by the Angels back in '14, Daniel might have to try his luck in independent baseball or dive into a new trade.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Walter Borkovich...Good to see the Borkovich continuing to develop. An undrafted free agent out of Michigan State, Borkovich tossed nine quality innings for Danville - which followed four quality innings in the GCL - before getting promoted to single-A. In his first game with Rome, he nailed down a save, though he did give up four hits in two innings. Obviously, when players don't get drafted despite playing high-quality conference ball, there wasn't a lot of interest in them. Nevertheless, Borkovich seems primed to do well in the lower minors because he matches pitchability with a fearless attitude. It's the more competitive upper levels of the minors where I wonder if Borkovich will continue to be successful. Well, until then.

Promoted from Danville: Taylor Hyssong...An 8th rounder last year, Hyssong has been at Danville now for 20 total games between two seasons with nothing really standing out about his numbers. Drafted more to save money (signed for $10K, $174,400 less than the suggested slot), I wrote this about Hyssong at the time. "Nothing really stands out in his numbers." That remains the case.

Promoted from Danville: Bradley Keller...A 15th rounder back in 2015, Keller has been slow to develop. Keller was a callback to the old Braves' way of drafting toolsy players and trying to teach them how to play. He struggled through a 2015 introduction to pro ball in the Gulf Coast League and looked completely lost last year as he struck out 122 times in 318 PA between the GCL and Danville. However, this season, things have started to click. Keller hit .306/.360/.597 over 33 games with the D-Braves. That includes an 11-game run before his promotion in which Keller hit .400 with six doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He added his seventh homer of the year in his first game with Rome. Keller still strikes out a good amount, but he's starting to hit the ball with much more authority. Could still turn into an interesting enough prospect and with Ventura traded, there are more at-bats for guys like Keller.

Danville
Promoted from GCL: Jeffrey Ramos...Very few people took note of Ramos heading into this season. One of the lesser-known names coming out of last year's mega J2 class, Ramos was also one of the few to immediately get into game action. It may have been too much for the 17-year-old as he hit just .230/.283/.333 over 33 games in the DSL. This season, he joined many of the other J2 class members from last year in the GCL and outshined most of them - and a good portion of the league. Over 30 games, he hit .325/.374/.556 with 14 extra base hits, including a half-dozen homers. A left fielder by trade, Ramos will go as far as his bat takes him and early impressions are it might take him quite a long way.

Demoted from Rome: Troy Conyers...The 23rd rounder in June, Conyers dominated the Gulf Coast League before bypassing Danville to join Rome in late July. He made three long-relief outings there and kept pitching well so I assume this is more roster management than anything.

Demoted from Rome: Tucker Davidson...There are two reasons a guy with a 2.99 FIP and 3.4 K/BB gets demoted from full-season low-A ball to Rookie ball. Either the Braves needed a roster spot in Rome or Davidson is getting punished for whatever reason. Or...there is a third reason that might work here. Davidson might be hitting a bit of a wall and they are giving him a breather (or flat-out shutting him down). Davidson worked entirely out of the bullpen until June 27. His next seven games were all out of the rotation. At 76.1 ING, he's thrown a shade over 45 innings more than he tossed in 2017, which could be influencing this roster move. Either way, Davidson has pitched well this season and there was a reason to believe he'd receive a promotion rather than a demotion.

GCL
Promoted from DSL: Gabriel Noguera...The Braves scout as well as anyone out of Venezuela, but Noguera's story is a little different. His name came up in the 2013 J2 class as a Top 50 prospect, but he didn't sign until last year. Earning praise for a "low-effort delivery" and a good fastball, Noguera finally made his professional debut in his Age-21 season in the Dominican Summer League. He looked very good again there and while his 0.87 ERA in 31 innings was soft, his strikeout-an-inning stats were impressive. He made his first start stateside last week and went four quality innings while allowing a run. He's not a big prospect, but at 21, it wouldn't surprise me to see Noguera on the Rome Braves roster when 2018 opens.

Assigned: Alex Aquino...Almost fitting that in the week Ventura's name shows up in this, Aquino finally joins an active roster. Aquino and Ventura were two of the four Braves' farmhands involved in a late August car accident in the Dominican Republic. He's the only one still in the system now. A right-hand hitting infielder, Aquino hit .274/.329/.378 with the GCL squad last year and hit his first professional homerun. It was a bit of an improvement over his 2015 DSL campaign. Despite joining the team last Tuesday, though, he has yet to play in a game.

Rehab from Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Did you forget he was in the system? You're not alone. Collmenter opened the season on the active roster after pretty much earning a spot with three smoke-and-mirrors starts last September. It did not go well for Collmenter and he was sent to the minors in late May, but he hit the DL soon after and did not appear in a game for Gwinnett. Last Wednesday was his first appearance since May 24 and he gave up three hits, a run, a walk, and picked up one strikeout in three innings of relief.

DSL
Nothing outside of losing Noguera.