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Showing posts with label MondayRoundup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MondayRoundup. Show all posts

Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Recap: Sweep, Buying/Selling, Early Freeman at 3B Metrics

Welcome to this week's quick Monday Recap. With just three games to review because of the All-Star Break, we won't have to spend too much time on them. Want to point out a few things before we look back at the week that just concluded. We posted our Midseason Top 50 Prospects last week with contributors Ryan Cothran and Stephen Tolbert pitching in. Ryan's been with WOW for awhile now, but Tolbert recently joined. He's already posted two columns - one on the prospect of trading Ozzie Albies and the other on comparing Sean Newcomb and Rich Hill's respective spin rates on their curveballs. Both are worthy of your consideration.

And with that said, it's on with the show.

July 10-13, Idle
All-Star Break

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
July 14, 4-3 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta twice gave up single-run leads, but Freddie Freeman put the Braves ahead for good with a two-run single in the 8th. Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a single before Brandon Phillips doubled to set the stage for Freeman's heroics. Freeman also broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth with a deep home run. Atlanta got their other run in the first when Inciarte doubled and came around later in the inning on a Matt Kemp two-out single. R.A. Dickey continued his solid work, throwing six innings and allowing just one on eight hits and two walks. He also struck out four. Sam Freeman allowed a home run to Paul Goldschmidt while Jose Ramirez wasn't helped by a bad thow by Tyler Flowers on a stolen base attempt. His throw went into center field and allowed a runner to reach third. A wild pitch briefly put the D'Backs on top. Jim Johnson worked a perfect ninth with a strikeout of Goldschmidt to end the game.

July 15, 8-5 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
The Braves used 14 hits and two home runs from each of their last two opening day second basemen to score eight runs and win Saturday's night affair. Phillips got the Braves on the board with a game-tying home run in the third, his eighth. He then put the Braves on top in the fifth with a RBI double. The lead was short lived as a pair of runs, charged to Mike Foltynewicz put Arizona ahead in the sixth. The Braves would fight back in the bottom half of the inning. With old friend Randall Delgado on the mound, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis led off the inning with singles. Delgado got the next two, but Dansby Swanson worked a walk. Lane Adams followed with a bases-clearing pinch-hit double. Andrew Chafin replaced Delgado and his first pitch was hit by Ender Inciarte for a RBI single to score Adams and put the Braves up 6-3. Kurt Suzuki picked up a RBI in the 7th and after the Diamondbacks scored twice in the 8th to pull closer, Jace Peterson led off the 8th with a pinch-hit home run that still hasn't landed. Johnson cruised through the ninth for another save. It was an average night for Folty, who struggled with his control over his 5.1 innings.

July 16, 7-1 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta gets to .500 with an efficient offensive attack. They would leave just four runners on base while scoring seven runs. In the third, Matt Kemp bashed a three-run bomb and Matt Adams smacked his 15th later in the frame. That was the game-changing frame for the Braves, who scored in each of the first four innings. Brandon Phillips doubled three times and drove in tow runs while Ender Inciarte singled twice. Jaime Garcia pitched well, allowing just one run in seven innings. He scattered four singles, walked three, and struck out seven. Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris worked perfect frames with Morris striking out a pair. The sweep at home was the Braves' first sweep at SunTrust since the four-game set to open the park against the Padres in mid-April.

This week's Record: 3-0
Season Record: 45-45, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9.5 GB

Minor League Week in Review
Gwinnett: 3-1...40-52, 2nd Place in the North, 9.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-5...6-17 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the Southern, 6 GB
Florida: 2-3...9-13 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the North, 4.5 GB
Rome: 1-4...8-12 (2nd Half), 6th Place in the Southern, 7.5 GB
Danville: 2-4...11-13, 3rd Place in the West, 7 GB
GCL: 3-3...9-9, 2nd Place in Northeast, 1.5 GB
DSL: 1-4...11-24, 7th Place in Northwest, 13 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves stay at home for three more games with the Cubs coming for a visit for two nights games before a matinee on Wednesday. It's the first time the Braves have faced the Cubs this season and they'll return the favor at the end of August by visiting Wrigley. After Wednesday's game, the Braves head on a cross-country trip to visit the Dodgers for four games to finish the week. The first three will be late night games for Braves fans while Sunday's will be a mid-afternoon start at 4:10 EST.

Three Last Things
1) Buying Or Selling?

It's hard not to have this debate. After sweeping Arizona, the Braves have reached .500 for the first time since early April. They are midway through a tough part of their schedule that included games with the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and a second series with Arizona in addition to the one that just completed. They've held their own so far, winning 5-of-9.

The Braves General Manager, John Coppolella, has been attached to Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Justin Verlander, and Michael Fulmer. Atlanta is also said to have an interest in Jurickson Profar. What the Braves ultimately may do may be decided by July 26. At that point, the Braves will have finished a 10-game stretch against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. If they are still at .500 or higher, the Braves might be an aggressive buyer. If they slip, they could sell.

Regardless, Braves fans universally agree about one thing - it feels good to care again.

2) Roster Issues

For the first time in a long time, the Braves might be sending down productive players because of a roster crunch. With Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez likely to return tomorrow, Lane Adams might be sent back to Gwinnett. Adams has been one of the few guys able to come off the bench and get a pinch hit here-and-there for the Braves. His six pinch-hits not only lead the team, but count for a quarter of all of Atlanta's pinch-hits this season. He's also belted a homer and added a double. But with Santana fresh off a five-hit game on a rehab assignment and super utility player Rodriguez ready to contribute, Adams seems pushed out for now. Jace Peterson, who joined Adams and Santana as the only Braves to have a pinch-hit homerun this season on Sunday, will likely head down as well.

Further roster decisions will have to be made in regards to a pitcher. Dan Winkler began his rehab assignment a month ago and is only given 30 days before the Braves have to make a decision. He's struck out nine over as many minor league innings, but also gave up eight runs. His rehab appears either halted, though. He hasn't pitched in ten days.

Something similar happened to Chaz Roe. His rehab assignment was halted after the Braves designated him for assignment. It didn't make much news, but on Thursday, he was outrighted to Gwinnett. I have seen reports that Winkler's rehab received a rare 30-day extension. Over the coming days, we'll see if that was accurate or if Winkler went through a similar fate as Roe. (Edit: According to Mark Bowman, it was accurate as the Braves have extended Winkler's rehab 30 days. H/t to Dan Keetz for this.)

3) Early Defensive Metrics Unkind to FF3B

It takes a long time for defensive metrics to really even out to the point that they tell us anything valuable. Often, we don't want to put too much importance in them without a career baseline to compare numbers to.

So...don't take this seriously.

Freddie Freeman's defensive metrics are HORRIBLE at third base! -89.3 UZR/10! Wow! He's handled ten plays and committed an error. Of the three plays in his zone, he's made two successful plays. In addition, Freeman is 9-of-10 on routine plays according to Inside Edge Fielding. He's 0-for-2 on remote plays (expected rate is between 1 and 10%) To be fair, he hasn't made a remote play at first base since 2014.

Well, what did you expect from a first baseman playing third base anyway? Of course, the Braves have also won a number of those games so they are getting exactly what they hoped for.

Monday, June 26, 2017

Monday Roundup: Big Flies Lead to Big Week

A full slate of games last week as the Braves welcomed both the Giants and Brewers to town. Let's dive in.

June 19, 9-0 WIN vs. Giants
Mr. Ryan Cothran recently pointed out how R.A. Dickey's splits-by-month improve once the temperatures warm up. Last Monday, he made Cothran look really good with seven masterful frames. He yielded just three hits and walked one while striking out a half-dozen. The game was a close one heading into the eighth, but things got nutty as the Giants' pen imploded. Danny Santana had the big knock of the frame with a three-run pinch-hit homer that may still be in orbit. Matt Adams also hit a homer, his 11th, and was one of four Braves to notch multi-hit games.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
June 20, 6-3 LOSS vs. Giants
Like the previous day, the eighth inning saw a lot of action. Unfortunately, it wasn't the kind of action the Braves needed to see. Julio Teheran had breezed through seven innings before a Dansby Swanson error on what should have been a double play was immediately followed by a three-run home run. After another hit and a sacrifice, Ian Krol entered and another two errors (charged to Krol and Adams) helped to pad the Giants' lead. Atlanta got one back in the bottom half on a Matt Kemp ground-rule double, but the Braves couldn't scratch across any more runs across. Johan Camargo finished a homer short of the cycle.

June 21, 5-3 WIN vs. Giants (11 ING)
With former Brave Cory Gearrin on the mound, Matt Kemp delivered a two-run homer in the eleventh as the Braves won in walk-off fashion. The homer provided some solace for the Braves after wasting a 3-1 lead in the late innings. It was Jim Johnson's fifth blown save of the year when he surrendered a Hunter Pence game-tying solo bomb in the ninth. Atlanta won despite only managing seven hits because three of them went screaming toward the stands. In addition to Kemp's 12th homer, Matt Adams hit his 12th as well and Tyler Flowers smacked his sixth. Sean Newcomb's third start was solid. He scattered three hits, including a RBI triple which was the only blemish on his record. He walked just one and K'd a trio.

June 22, 12-11 WIN vs. Giants
A wild one was played after a nearly 90-minute rain delay to begin the night. Jaime Garcia got lit up to the tune of a half-dozen runs over 4.1 innings. Still, a crazy fifth inning gave the Braves just enough offense to win this one. Down 6-4, Brandon Phillips smacked the first pitch he saw of the frame for a homer. After a pair of singles chased Giants starter, Matt Cain, Matt Adams brought home a run on another single to tie it. The theme continued with a go-ahead RBI single by Kurt Suzuki. Johan Camargo made the first out of the inning count with a sacrifice fly with the bases loaded before Lane Adams gave the Braves their second pinch-hit three-run homer of the week. It was Adams' first homer of his major league career. Danny Santana, who entered as a pinch-runner for Matt Kemp earlier in the inning, finished the scoring with a RBI single to plate Phillips (who had walked in his second PA of the inning). All told, the Braves scored eight runs and sent 13 batters to the plate. It was nearly not enough as the Giants fought back to score three off Ian Krol (a costly Lane Adams error led to two of those runs being unearned) and added two more runs off Jim Johnson, but the Braves closer finished the game with his 14th save. The long night was even harder on the Giants, who had a game the next day at home. The rain delay kept the game from starting until 9:01 and it ended around 12:30 AM. They left the park about 90 minutes later and hopped a cross-country plane. Jet-lagged and exhausted, the Giants would lose to the Mets the next evening, 11-4.

June 23, 5-4 WIN vs Brewers
Braves built a pair of three-run leads but had to hold on for a one-run win without their closer available in this one. Mike Foltynewicz was good, though had some big-pitch innings. He finished with 9 K's in just 5 innings and only one run allowed. He walked three and threw 104 pitches. The Brewers scored a run off Sam Freeman and added two more against Jose Ramirez before Arodys Vizcaino pitched around a leadoff double for his first save of the year. The defense played a big role in the final two frames. With runners on first-and-second and only one out in a one-run ballgame, Jesus Aguilar rocketed a ball toward third where Johan Camargo fielded it cleanly and quickly got the ball over to second. Brandon Phillips turned a flawless double play from there to end the threat. In the ninth, following the leadoff double, Dansby Swanson ranged to his right to field a grounder and didn't hesitate on a strong throw to third to cut down the leading runner. The next Brewers hitter smacked a long fly ball that would have scored the runner. Swanson also caught a dying liner to end the game. Brandon Phillips homered for the second consecutive game, a solo bomb in the first. He added a RBI double later in the game to spearhead the Braves' attack.

June 24, 3-1 WIN vs. Brewers
Stay hot, R.A. Dickey. The knuckleballer tossed seven superb innings and the bullpen had an uneventful night for a change. Brandon Phillips did it again, homering for the third consecutive night. His two-run bomb broke a 1-1 tie and was all the edge Atlanta and Dickey would need. The first inning was a weird frame. It included a questionable balk call and an ejection of Milwaukee Brewers utility man, Nick Franklin, for arguing that the Braves were given too much time to decide whether or not to challenge a play. They ultimately didn't, but it still meant Franklin had an early night even though he wasn't playing. In all of the chaos, there was the Brewers only run, which scored on a bases-loaded fielder's choice. Atlanta would tie it in the first on a two-out single by Tyler Flowers. The Braves catcher was down 0-2 against Matt Garza, but worked the count full before rocketing a single through the infield to plate Phillips.

June 25, 7-0 LOSS vs. Brewers
Julio Teheran didn't have to wait long for his day to implode like he did earlier in the week. He retired just nine batters and was charged with all seven runs. He walked two and K'd three during his short day. Luke Jackson allowed one of those runs to score after he inherited it, but that was the only bad thing anyone could have said about Jackson's outing. He went four shutout innings, scattering two hits, and striking out four. He didn't walk a batter. Ender Inciarte had two of Atlanta's five total hits - all singles.

This Week's Record: 5-2
Season Record: 36-39, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9 GB

Minor League Week in Review (Briefly)
Gwinnett: 3-3...38-36, 2nd Place in the South, 7.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-2...2-2, 2nd Place in South (2nd Half), 1 GB
Florida: 2-4...2-2, 3rd Place in North (2nd Half), 1 GB
Rome: 2-2...2-2, 2nd Place in Southern (2nd Half), 1 GB
Danville: 2-2...2-2, 3rd Place in East, 1 GB
GCL: Opens play this week
DSL: 3-3...8-10, 7th Place in Northwest, 2.5 GB

Three Last Things
1) Things Are About to Get Tough

Sunday marked the 24th game of June. Atlanta has done well with a 14-10 record. All but six of those games came at home via a quirk in the schedule. Further, only a half-dozen of those games came against teams with a .500 or better record. That will change soon.

Following an off day today, Atlanta heads out west for six in California with the Padres and A's. Then comes a buzzsaw that includes 2 vs. HOU, 4 @ DC, 3 vs. ARZ, 3 vs. CHC, 4 @ LAD, and 3 @ ARZ. The Braves will finish July with four games in Philly. As they arrive in the City of Brotherly Love, we'll know a lot more about this team. To this point, only 20 games total have come against teams with a .500 or better record (they're 9-11). In July, they are scheduled to have 19 games against those kind of teams. They'll also play 21 games on the road between now and the trading deadline and are 16-19 on the road this season. For reference, the four-game set in Washington comes right before the All-Star Break.

Some people are buying in. They believe the Braves are better than advertised and will surprise some people. If they are right, July has to be just as impressive as June despite a much tougher slate of games. If you want the Braves to be buyers, they need to continue their recent success against the Astros, Nationals, Diamondbacks and so on. They'll need more games like Friday and Saturday when they took down an impressive Brewers club, and fewer games like Sunday, when their "ace" was blasted for seven runs.

2) Jose Ramirez is Finding Out Regression is Tough

Despite being one of the most trustworthy arms in the pen this year, many were slow to buy in on Jose Ramirez as a true asset. Those that waved off the bandwagon over-and-over may have made that right call. Over his last 14 games, Ramirez has allowed eight runs in 10.1 ING, blown two saves, and walked ten compared to just seven strikeouts. He's also allowed two homeruns.

But we had to see this coming, no? His xFIP heading into June was above 4.00 despite strong WHIP numbers. The belief was that he had been very lucky to this point with a super-low BABIP helping to hide some of the warts. In June, those warts have come out in full force with a 9.02 FIP/7.84 xFIP. While short sample size concerns negate too much value being placed on those numbers, Ramirez has struggled considerably with his control and after some early-season success in inducing weak contact, he is no longer able to rely on that.

Ramirez needs to adjust quickly. He's walked a batter in each of his last seven games, which resembles the guy who was cast to the minors during the first few games of the 2016 season.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
3) Oh, Julio

I've always been a big fan of Julio Teheran. Back in 2010, when he climbed from Rome to Mississippi, I was anxious to see him dominate in the majors. I even stayed positive during his iffy 2012 campaign where he struggled as the Braves tinkered with his delivery. And I was rewarded for my patience with four seasons and a solid major league pitcher.

Sure, he wasn't an "ace," but he was still very good. His 9.9 fWAR between 2013 and 2016 ranked 35th in the game. He was a durable second starter who simply needed an ace to team with. The Braves were never able to find that, of course, as they cycled through Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Shelby Miller. Nevertheless, if you are rebuilding and putting a focus on starting pitching, the reasonable belief is that one of those flamethrowing kids would take the ace mantle and run with it. That would push Teheran back and the Braves could roll with a solid rotation.

But...this season happened.

I don't really know what is wrong with Teheran. There's nothing in his release point or movement that really stands out. His frequency of using one pitch over another is not too far removed from last year, though I've never understood why he stopped featuring his curveball as much after 2014. His velocity is about where you expect it to be and he can still reach back and hit 96 mph when he wants to. If you ignored the actual results on the field and just scoured the pitch data, you wouldn't come away thinking anything was too out of the ordinary. But nobody pays a pitcher for a consistent release point or velocity. They pay them to take those things and turn them into positive results and right now, there simply is none to speak of for Teheran.

And it's really difficult to understand why his numbers are just so awful. The strike% is right there. His first-strike percentage, the pitch we are told is so important, is at a career-high. About a quarter of his strikeouts end in the backwards K, a career-high. He's pitching ahead as frequently as ever with only 31% of his matchups ending with the batter ahead in the count (right in tune with his career).

Perhaps he's hurt. Perhaps he's in his head. Perhaps he's throwing rather than pitching. Perhaps the dismissal of Roger McDowell has had an effect. Perhaps it's mechanical. Perhaps SunTrust Park just doesn't work for him.

Whatever the case may be, the Braves aren't going very far this year with this version of Teheran. And it's just damn ugly to watch.

Monday, June 12, 2017

Monday Roundup: Long Week Begins and Ends With Disappointment

With eight games at home on the schedule against division foes, last week had a chance of being a springboard for the Braves into a big June. Instead, it ended up a losing effort that included a disheartening doubleheader loss.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter
June 5: 11-4 LOSS vs. Phillies
This one got away from Bartolo Colon early. He was charged with eight runs in his 3.2 innings. Not that it mattered, but Sam Freeman and Eric O'Flaherty each gave up homers as well. Johan Camargo had a big day at the plate with a double and a triple. Ender Inciarte and Brandon Phillips also had two hits a piece with Inciarte reaching ten doubles on the season. He's currently on pace for 26 doubles this season. His career high is 27 set in 2015. He's already tied his career-high in homers, also set in 2015.

June 6: 3-1 LOSS vs. Phillies
Atlanta got to Aaron Nola early with a double by Phillips and a RBI single by Nick Markakis in the first, but the offense managed just five hits the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Phillies were able to scratch three runs across against Jaime Garcia to pull out the win. Phillips led Braves hitters with two hits. Garcia went 7.2 innings in the loss and struck out four. Jason Motte stranded a runner while striking out the only hitter he faced. Jason Hursh, who was just called up to replace the DL'd Colon, tossed a one-hit ninth with a K. It was the fourth time he had been called up from the minors, but just the third time he had been used. He would be demoted and recalled again later in the week.

June 7: 14-1 WIN vs. Phillies
A 4-0 game entering the bottom of the seventh turned into a blow-out as the Braves set a new season-high in runs scored. Markakis doubled in Phillips for the game's first run in the fourth. An inning later, after Tyler Flowers reached on an error and Rio Ruiz worked a walk, Dansby Swanson unloaded for his sixth homer of the year. He's now tied for third on the team in homeruns. Markakis drove in five runs with three hits - all doubles. In addition to his big fly, Swanson singled twice to finish with three hits. Danny Santana had a pinch-hit two-run double and Matt Adams finished with three ribbies and a homer. Mike Foltynewicz didn't need much help, either. He finished with seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits, two walks, and picking up four K's. Jose Ramirez and Luke Jackson finished from there with Jackson yielding a run on three hits.

June 8: 3-1 WIN vs. Phillies
R.A. Dickey was masterful over seven innings, allowing just three hits and one run. More impressively, he walked nobody and struck out eight. Meanwhile, the Braves scored twice in the first to claim a lead they would not surrender. Phillips, Matt Kemp, Adams, and Flowers all had two-hit games with all but Adams adding a double. Flowers was catching Dickey for the first time this season and while he was charged with a passed ball, the results from Dickey seemed to indicate Flowers would get another chance to catch the knuckler. Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol teamed up to pitch the eighth before Jim Johnson closed the door in the ninth.

June 9: 3-2 WIN vs. Mets
Rio Ruiz followed up a Swanson hustle double with a pinch-hit single to score the shortstop and lead to a walk-off victory. With the score tied and one out in the ninth, Swanson sent a single up the middle that Curtis Granderson took his sweet time fielding. Swanson pushed the issue and beat the throw to second to set up Ruiz, who took the only pitch Josh Edgin threw to left field to score Swanson. Granderson had homered in the third to put the Mets up, but Swanson (a common theme here) doubled in two runs to briefly put Atlanta on top. Jason Motte couldn't hold it from there, allowing a homer. Julio Teheran was improved as he continues to try to turn his season around. He gave up four hits, walked three, and struck out three over six innings before giving the bullpen the game with a 2-1 lead. Other than Motte, the pen didn't allow a hit even though Braves manager Brian Snitker used five relievers to record nine outs.

June 10: Game 1...6-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Can't blame the rookie as Sean Newcomb was superb. He went 6.1 innings, allowed four hits, walked two (one intentionally), and struck out seven. His biggest mistake came in the second when he tried to do a bit too much and committed an error that would help set the stage for the Mets to pull ahead on a sacrifice fly. It was still 1-0 in the eighth when Luke Jackson allowed another sacrifice fly. He then loaded the bases in the ninth before surrendering the game-ender - a Grand Slam. The Braves offense was non-existent as they managed a half-dozen hits, including two extra-base knocks by Brandon Phillips. It was Phillips' eighth-inning homer that kept the Braves from being shutout.

Game 2...8-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Once again, the Braves offense didn't show up and picked up just five hits, including a RBI single by Johan Camargo, who had two hits. Swanson had the only extra-base hit, a double that preceded Camargo's seventh-inning single. Matt Wisler was good - until he wasn't. After four very impressive innings, he gave up a three-run homer in the fifth and another run in the sixth. Eric O'Flaherty surrendered four more runs to turn the game into a laugher.

June 11: 2-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Jaime Garcia went seven innings, allowed just two runs, and struck out nine - and it wasn't enough. Completing a weekend where they were missing in action, the Braves offense picked up six or fewer hits for the third consecutive game. They had a shot to plate what would have been the tying run in the fifth inning when they loaded the bases on two singles and a walk, but Matt Adams hit an inning-ending double play. He was originally called safe at first before a replay challenge overturned the call on the field.

Trending Up:
Dansby Swanson (9-for-24, 3 2B, HR, 2 BB, 2 K)
Johan Camargo (4-for-13, 2B, 3B)
Ender Inciarte (8-for-27, 2B, 5 BB, 2 K)
Mike Foltynewicz (7 ING, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K)
Ian Krol (3 G, 1.2 ING, 2 K)
Sean Newcomb (6.1 ING, 4 H, R, 2 BB,  K)
R.A. Dickey (7 ING, 3 H, R, ER, 8 K)
Jaime Garcia (14.2 ING, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 13 K)

Trending South:
Kurt Suzuki (0-for-12, K)
Matt Adams (6-for-29, HR, 4 BB, 7 K)
Bartolo Colon (3.2 ING, 8 R, 2 BB, 4 K)
Eric O'Flaherty (3 G, 3.2 ING, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, BB, 4 K)

This Week: 3-5
Season: 27-35, tied for 3rd in the NL East, 11 GB (lost a spot and a .5 game)

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves leave Atlanta for a quick trip to D.C. to face the division-leading Nationals. Monday and Tuesday are night games while Wednesday will be a 4:05 EDT start. After an off day, Atlanta returns home to welcome the Marlins into town. After a night game on Friday, Saturday's effort will be a 4:10 EDT start and will be Superhero Night at the ballpark. Sunday's game is another Alumni Sunday with a pair of former second basemen as Marcus Giles and Mark Lemke will be on hand. Former pinch-hitting extraordinaire Dwight Smith will also be at the game along with Jay Howell, who spent one season with the Braves back in 1993.

Three Last Things

1) Sean Newcomb Deserves to Stay for Now
I've been on the Sean Newcomb Bandwagon since about midseason last year. I was like many fans and it took me some time to warm up to the deal that sent fan favorite Andrelton Simmons packing. But once I saw Newcomb start to make some mechanical adjustments last season, I grew more and more excited about his potential. I ranked him second on my preseason Top 50 and went into this season ready to watch him force his way into the majors. I was a little shocked to see it happen so quickly.

Newcomb's going to have to throw his secondary pitches more frequently and for strikes - 70 of his 96 pitches Saturday were four-seam fastballs - but what we saw against the Mets was a kid unaffected by the major league bright lights. He threw his pitches with confidence and even control, hitting the strikezone on 53% of his pitches - over 5% over the major league average this year. His fastball ranged between 91.1 mph and 96.9 mph and he was nearly hitting 96 mph in the sixth inning. His curve was off-the-charts ridiculous and froze hitters left-and-right. The ones that did swing at it often missed.

Like I said, he's going to have to throw his slider and change more often in future outings, but as far as debuts go, Newcomb excelled. He gave us a glimpse into the pitcher he can be. What's he got in his left arm for an encore?

2) Markakis: A Platoon Option?
Before coming to the Atlanta Braves, Nick Markakis definitely hit righties with more force than he hit lefties. While his batting average showed little platoon advantage, he walked nearly 3% more and sported an ISO that was 51 points higher. That gave us a difference in wOBA of .355 vs. .329. But that's not so bad. A general rule of thumb tells us that .329 is a bit between average and above-average.

But...and I bet you can guess where this is going...things have been a bit different since coming to Atlanta. Now, to be fair, his marks are down across the board compared to his Orioles days. To be equally as fair, his Orioles days includes a time when wOBA was much higher around the league so it's difficult to say that his decline with Atlanta has been significant. All of that out of the way, Markakis's wOBA as a Brave against righthanders is .340. That's an above-average mark and nothing to sneeze at. But his mark against lefthanders? .279. That's straight up awful and a detriment to the team.

I can't blame the Braves for playing him so frequently against lefthanders. They've rarely had better options. But it's time to accept that Markakis is now just a platoon hitter and if he's a Brave in 2018, he'll need a platoon partner - perhaps Dustin Peterson or the guy I'm going to talk about next.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter
3) Acuna and Andruw
Ronald Acuna has done some pretty ridiculous things that 19-year-olds simply do not do. He played just 40 games at Low-A ball last year, but still received an extended stay with the major league club this spring and arrived in Florida for High-A ball with massive expectations. Those inflated expectations were already heightened after an absurd run in Australia during winter ball and a lot of eyes were on him as he began 2017 as one of the youngest players in High-A.

He didn't stay there long. Twenty-eight games. Sixty-eight total games at both levels of A-ball. On May 9, he was promoted to Mississippi. Less than a month later, he had already been named Southern League Player of the Month as he blitzed the league. Naturally, it's difficult NOT to compare him to another teenage outfielder who, back in 1996, jumped from High-A all the way to the majors with stops in Double-A and Triple-A along the way. Now, Acuna hasn't flashed the other-worldly power Andruw Jones did back then, but he's following a similar trajectory. Whether that gets him to the majors in 2017 remains to be seen.

But I want to concentrate on 2018 and what happened with Andruw Jones in 1997. We all remember how Andruw made a name for himself in the '96 World Series, but do you remember how the Braves treated the 20-year-old the following season? He played in all but nine ballgames, yet started just 91 games. He played a few innings in left, but cycled mostly between right field and center field. Kenny Lofton's lengthy DL stint helped open up at-bats for Andruw and Michael Tucker's need for a right-handed caddy to neutralized lefties also helped.

Why not do the same thing with Ronald Acuna? The Braves would enter 2018 with a returning outfield, though Nick Markakis has just one year left on his contract and Matt Kemp's deal runs through 2019. Both players have been pretty durable over the last several years, but each will be a year older in 2018. But the bigger advantage to bringing Acuna in for a year as the fourth outfielder is that he can fill a number of roles. As I stated in the second "Last Thing," Markakis has not shown the ability as a Brave to consistently hit left-handed pitching. Acuna could help there. He's also a capable defender in center field, something the Braves lack behind Ender Inciarte. Further, his defense could come in handy in late innings as a defensive replacement for Kemp without sacrificing too much offense. Finally, Acuna gives the Braves a solid replacement at any outfield spot during games in AL ballparks.

The belief is that Acuna won't be in the majors in 2018 if he's not starting and that won't happen without a trade. That's probably accurate, but giving Andruw a year as the fourth outfielder didn't hurt his development. Why not let Acuna follow the same course?

Monday, June 5, 2017

Monday Roundup: Krolling, Demeritte Rolling, Flowers Needs Extolling

Welcome to June and this week's Monday Roundup. We start with three out west to finish a six-game California swing and end with a trio of games in Cincinnati.

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
May 29, 6-3 WIN @ Angels
The Braves scored all of their runs in the third with help from a pair of two-run doubles off the bats of the recently acquired Matt Adams and Danny Santana. Tyler Flowers, who had a pair of singles, and Rio Ruiz drove the other runs home. Ender Inciarte added two hits in the win. Julio Teheran went 6.1 innings and gave up three solo homeruns, including one to Andrelton Simmons and another, #598, to Albert Pujols. Jose Ramirez entered with the bases juiced in the seventh and got out of it. Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson shut the door from there.

May 30, 9-3 LOSS @ Angels
The third inning from hell was the Braves' undoing here. Up 2-0 entering the frame, Bartolo Colon got a grounder to lead off the frame, but Dansby Swanson whiffed on the diving attempt. No foul there, it would have been a tough play. After an out was recorded (and a ball was nearly thrown away by Colon on a pickoff attempt), Kole Calhoun sent one up the middle. Jace Peterson bobbled and fumbled the ball, ruining a shot at two (and a sure out, at least). Pujols followed with HR #599 to put the Angels up. But the inning was just starting for the Braves. With a runner on, Simmons hit a grounder to - basically - his replacement at short, but Swanson completely whiffed (again) on what should have been out #3, maybe out #4. Up next was Ben Revere (yes, he's still in the bigs) who sent a weak grounder to first, but Matt Adams couldn't get the ball out of his glove. Another run scored. Next was Cliff Pennington, who sent another weak little nubber to the hapless Braves infield - this time to Colon. The runner was going, but nobody told Colon, who tried to throw to second and then, for reasons unknown, decided to try to go home instead. He slipped and his throw home was late. Jesus, this is a lot of writing. After a liner to center scored yet another run, another grounder went the way of Colon who attempted the third or fifth double play of the inning, but it got passed Peterson and went into center field. A bunt happened next because the Braves weren't being embarrassed enough. Peterson was late covering first and Adams' throw was late anyway. When it was all said-and-done, nine runs had scored and only two were earned. On the bright side...Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers each homered and the bullpen tossed 5.2 scoreless innings.

May 31, 2-1 LOSS @ Angels
Jaime Garcia threw seven superb innings and allowed just an unearned run, but the Braves offense could only crank out five hits off Jesse Chavez and just one over Bud Norris. One of those hits was Matt Kemp's tenth homer. The game was decided in the eighth when another former Brave, Eric Young Jr., hit a homerun.

June 1, OFF

June 2, 3-2 LOSS @ Reds (10 innings)
Mike Foltynewicz pitched a gem, but the bullpen couldn't hold a 2-0 lead. Folty struck out ten over seven innings and scattered just a pair of singles, but after Vizcaino's sketchy eighth, the ninth was when things got really bad. Jim Johnson gave up a pair of doubles and a wild pitch on a ball that Tyler Flowers didn't get in front of led to a tie game and a blown save. In the bottom of the tenth, Devin Mesoraco homered off Jose Ramirez to end it. Inciarte, Flowers, Swanson, and the returning Adonis Garcia all had two hits with Swanson hitting his fifth homer of the year. Matt Kemp added three hits.

June 3, 6-5 WIN @ Reds (12 innings)
The Braves wasted a 5-1 lead, but the bullpen stayed strong late in this one as the Braves pulled out the extra innings victory. With R.A. Dickey on the mound, the Braves erased an early 1-0 hole with a monster fifth inning. After an error, a walk, and a hard single loaded the bases, Matt Adams smacked a Grand Slam. Later in the inning, Swanson singled in Garcia. Starting for the second consecutive game, Garcia had four hits, including a double, and stole a pair of bags. However, the Braves quickly gave the runs back in the sixth. An HBP, an error, and a walk loaded them before a single brought home a runner and chased Dickey. Jason Motte then walked home a runner before giving up a two-run single. It remained 5-5 until the 12th when Adams unloaded for the second time in the game and fifth time overall in the two weeks since the Braves acquired him. Jim Johnson, who blew a game the previous night, threw two solid innings in relief. The pen as a whole tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, though Motte did allow three inherited runners to score.

June 4, 13-8 WIN @ Reds
In a wild game, the Braves outslug the Reds to take the series. Atlanta went up 1-0 in the first inning but quickly fell behind 2-1. They would score the next eight runs and though the Reds didn't go away, the Braves would never trail again. Inciarte had his second 5-hit game of the year and hit his sixth homerun, matching his career high. Danny Santana added two doubles, a homer, and a single for a big afternoon. Johan Camargo doubled and walked while Flowers was on base four times and scored each time. The only real negative was Teheran, who gave up seven runs over five ineffective innings.

This week: 3-3
Season: 24-30 tied for 2nd in NL East, 10.5 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves return home for a busy week of baseball in front of the home fans. The Phillies come to town for four evening games to begin the week. Next up is the Mets for another four games as Saturday will include a day/night doubleheader. Sunday's game is also a day game and as always, it's a Alumni Sunday game. On hand will be Denny Neagle, Alejandro Pena, Jose Alvarez, and 1995 NLCS MVP Mike Devereaux.

Three Last Things

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
1) Let's Krol
Earned Run Average is a terrible thing for a reliever. Back in 2002, John Smoltz gave up eight runs in his second game of the year. It was his first full season as a reliever. His ERA would remain over 5 for the next two months and only went under 4 to stay in August. His ERA after that second game was 2.40.

Ian Krol's ERA stands at 5.48, but like Smoltz in '02, it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. Over his last seven outings since May 18, Krol has worked 7.2 innings. He's allowed just one hit, which happens to count for the only run he's allowed (a solo homerun). He's walked four batters and struck out ten. Few outings were more important than Sunday's. With a tired bullpen, Krol entered with the game still in doubt at 11-8. He missed Zack Cozart and Joey Votto, the best hitters in the Reds lineup, but still breezed through all six batters he faced while striking out half of them. The outing dropped his FIP an entire half-run.

Krol was excellent in 2016 with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA. One of the developments that led to last season's success, beyond improved control, was the ability to induce grounders. Last year, it was 57%. Over his first 15 games this year, it was down nearly twenty points to 39%. Over his last seven, it's back up to 57%.

It's a long season and while early season struggles can wreck a reliever's ERA, Krol is trending in the right direction toward better full-season numbers.

2) His Name is Travey and He's Pretty Much a Big Deal
In his first season above A-ball, Travis Demeritte has done some interesting things. He's lowered his strikeout rate under 25% - no small feat for a player who routinely K'd a third of the time. While the batting average (.264) hasn't been where he wished it would be, his wOBA has been around .360/.370 most of the season. On Saturday, he bashed a pair of homers and added his tenth homer on Sunday.

But what makes Demeritte even more noteworthy is where he's been playing of late. On May 21, he shifted from second base to third base and has stayed there for the last thirteen games. While Ozzie Albies hasn't set the world on fire in Gwinnett, he remains the second baseman of the near future. Accepting that and seeing how Demeritte responds to third base is only natural for the Braves.

3) Just Look At the Flowers
Hitting fourth on Sunday was Adonis Garcia, a player who, despite six hits in two games since being activated off the DL, is not the type of player you expect to see in the cleanup spot. Two spots below him was Tyler Flowers. Before 2016, it would have been ridiculous to hit Flowers anywhere near the top of the lineup. Now, it seems absurd to continue to bat him in the six-hole.

Flowers reached base four times on Sunday. It increased his already stellar OBP to .475. It is the top OBP of any hitter that has stepped up to the plate at least 130 times this season. Yet, only twenty of those plate appearances have come while hitting higher in the order than sixth.

Flowers isn't going to hit .365 all season with a .475 OBP and .422 wOBA. But while he is, shouldn't the Braves be in position to take advantage of it? Flowers is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball and even in a lineup that is producing at a much higher rate than expected, the Braves are failing to maximize that the production from Flowers. While it might be convenient to keep him there to keep the lineup alternating lefties and righties as much as possible, it's still a waste. Hit Flowers third or fourth and make the lineup even more dynamic.

Monday, May 29, 2017

Monday Roundup: Trade Johnson?, Cumberland's Run, Bullpen Issues

Welcome to another week of Braves baseball as we say goodbye to May and head into June. The end of May is often a time in which teams start realizing what they have - and don't have - and start to make more frequent adjustments. With the Braves continuing to disappoint, might a player or many be in their final days with the team?

That question will certainly be answered, but in the meantime, here is a brief rundown of the week.

Ramirez | Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
May 22, 5-2 WIN vs. Pirates
-Mike Foltynewicz pitched around a lot of trouble and the Braves got homers off the bats of Brandon Phillips and Matt Adams to pull away 5-2. Adams' two-run bomb was his first since joining the team. Ender Inciarte went 5-for-5 (all singles) while Phillips, Adams, and Tyler Flowers all had multi-hit games. Folty went five innings and allowed both of Pittsburgh's runs, though one was unearned. He walked two and K'd 5. Jason Motte, Jose Ramirez, Arodys Vizcaino, and Jim Johnson each tossed a hitless frame.

May 23, 6-5 WIN vs. Pirates
In one of the weirdest games of the year that included Pirates manager Clint Hurdle being ejected and a 3-hour rain delay, it was Matt Adams who was the hero. Adams doubled and homered before the delay, but it was his walk-off base hit that won the game in the ninth that mattered the most. The Braves were losing 3-2 before the delay, but soon after play resumed, Atlanta pulled ahead with two runs in the seventh. In the ninth, Jim Johnson couldn't hold the lead, though it wasn't all his fault. With the bases loaded and two outs, Johnson was a strike away from ending it when Mercer foul-tipped a ball that Kurt Suzuki couldn't hold onto. On the next pitch, Mercer put the Pirates ahead with a base hit. Luke Jackson got out of the inning and got the win when the Braves came back in the bottom of the ninth. In addition to Adams' three-hit barrage, Suzuki and Inciarte had three hits while Brandon Phillips and Nick Markakis each had two.

May 24, 12-5 LOSS (10 ING) vs. Pirates
For the second consecutive night, the Braves were an out away from winning the game in the top of the ninth, but couldn't close the deal. This time it was Jose Ramirez, who was pitching as Johnson and Vizcaino received a night off. The normally reliable Ramirez gave up three hits, none as big as the two-run Jose Osuna single. That came after a two-out walk. In the tenth, Josh Collmenter earned a DFA by giving up back-to-back-to-back jacks on his way to surrendering seven runs. It ruined a good night for Julio Teheran, who gave up three runs - all unearned - in six innings. Four Braves - Inciarte, Phillips, Matt Kemp, and Rio Ruiz - had two-hit games.

May 25, 9-4 LOSS vs. Pirates
Bartolo Colon gave up five runs in the second and seven overall during yet another disappointing outing. Ruiz would lead the offense with three hits, but the big hole was too much for the Braves. Matt Wisler, who replaced Collmenter on the roster, threw a pair of scoreless frames in relief.

May 26, 2-0 WIN at Giants
The Braves get their first shutout and Jaime Garcia plays a starring role. On the mound, he went 6.2 innings while allowing four singles, a pair of walks, and picking up five strikeouts. More importantly for Garcia was that he got two groundouts for every flyout. At the plate, Garcia picked up the slack for a punchless offense. With Tyler Flowers and Dansby Swanson on base, Garcia rocketed a single to left. Flowers scored easily and after Belt's throw got away, as did Swanson. Garcia was only credited with one RBI, but he'll take it. After Jose Ramirez stranded a runner by retiring the only batter he faced, Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson shut the door from there.

May 27, 6-3 LOSS at Giants
Bad Foltynewicz was on display as the righty surrendered five runs over four innings. The Braves never threatened from there. Tyler Flowers, as he tends to do, had another multi-hit game and Ruiz and Kemp each doubled. Sam Freeman pitched a scoreless inning while Luke Jackson worked two scoreless. Ian Krol struggled again in the ninth, giving up a run on a hit and two walks.

May 28, 7-1 LOSS at Giants
A theme of this week was a starter that crapped the bed early. R.A. Dickey became the latest Braves starter to do just that as he gave up seven runs over the game's first three innings. He pitched well enough from there to throw six innings, but the damage had been done. He walked five. Matt Wisler worked another scoreless two-inning frame. Kemp had three singles in the loss while Nick Markakis went 2-for-3.

This week: 3-4
Season: 21-27, tied for 2nd in NL East, 8.5 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves end May with three games in Anaheim against our old friend Andrelton Simmons and the Angels. Mike Trout will likely miss the series and perhaps more time due to a thumb issue. After a day off on June 1, the Braves head to Cincinnati to end the week with a night game on Friday and then two day games during the weekend.

Three Last Things

1) Jim Johnson on the Move?
Could the Braves already be fielding calls about their closer, Jim Johnson? That might be the case, according to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. Should the Braves entertain this?

Are you kidding me? Absolutely, they should. That's not a slight on Johnson, by the way. Ignoring his woeful 23-game run with the Dodgers after that trade we don't talk about anymore, Johnson has been wonderful with the Braves to the tune of 2.5 fWAR since 2015. Again, if you ignore his time with the Dodgers, Johnson's fWAR in that time would rank him tied with Koji Uehara and Kelvin Herrera for 23rd in baseball. Compared to the market, Johnson is also pretty cheap at $4.5 million this year and next.

But the market has recently paid handsomely for closers. Last season, acquiring Mark Melancon cost the Nationals an excellent controllable reliever in Felipe Rivero and an intriguing C+/B- lefthander in Taylor Hearn. That's probably the weakest deal I'm going to mention. Aroldis Chapman cost the Cubs a consensus Top-10 prospect in baseball right now in Gleyber Torres among the four players the Cubs surrendered. To acquire Craig Kimbrel, the Red Sox has to give the Padres a tremendous four-player package including Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra (who, granted, forgot how to hit). The Cubs gave up a bat with unlimited potential in Jorge Soler for Wade Davis. Ken Giles cost the Astros, among others, Vincent Velasquez. Finally, the Yankees surrendered Andrew Miller for four players, including Clint Frazier who has been among the Top 25 or so prospects in baseball.

Now, all of these trades were different and do not imply that Jim Johnson will receive X amount of value in a trade, but for all the things I mentioned in the second paragraph (great success, cheap price), that drives up the Braves' asking price for Johnson. The fact that they have another year of control over Johnson also means the Braves can be patient. They never have to deal him. But if a team is offering a Torres or Frazier, you better believe Arodys Vizcaino will be the new closer.

Until he's traded, of course.

2) Cumberland's Climb
Cumberland | Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
At this point, it wouldn't surprise me much to hear Brett Cumberland went 4-for-4 with four homers and a pair of plate appearances where he was hit by a pitch. The former Cal-Berkeley star got off to a rough start, but has been one of baseball's hottest hitters since hitting his first homer for Rome on April 20. Since then, he's hitting .312/.505/.662.

Wait, that wasn't clear enough. A FIVE-OH-FIVE ON-BASE PERCENTAGE OVER 111 PLATE APPEARANCES!

My apologies for yelling. He's doubled six times, hit seven homers, and walked 19 times to 23 strikeouts. Plus, he's been hit 13 times by a pitch. Extrapolated over a full season, Cumberland would get hit 84 times. That's probably a record of some sorts.

To be fair, the question involving Cumberland was never "will he hit?" He had the bat, the plate discipline, and the pop to be a real asset at the plate. It's his work behind the plate that continues to lag behind. Here's the good news about that - he's got time. I recall another catcher who had the tag "he'll hit, but can he catch?" attached to him. Funny enough, he became a plus defender and a poor hitter - until he came back to Atlanta before the 2016 season and suddenly re-learned to hit. Hopefully, it won't take Cumberland so long to hit in the majors like it did Tyler Flowers, but I'll take the defense (minus the throwing issues).

3) Bullpen Usage Needs Work
I've mentioned this before, but I can't say I'm a fan of the way Brian Snitker utilizes his bullpen. Snitker enjoys the idea of pitcher roles. Johnson, you get the ninth. Vizcaino, you get the eighth. Lately, it's been Jose Vizcaino getting the seventh. Sink-or-swim, this is your inning. Only the Reds have had fewer instances this year in which a reliever enters with no runners on. That says to me that Snitker likes the idea of a "clean inning" and not messing with double-switches too often. To be fair, not sure I'd like to do many double-switches with this bench either.

Nevertheless, Snitker likes the three-out full inning out of his reliever. The Braves are near the bottom of the NL in both games where a pitcher records more than three outs and games in which a pitcher records fewer than three outs. They are also third in the fewest amount of inherited runners, which is actually shocking considering how poorly the pitching staff has performed. Because Snitker is so dependent on roles, the Braves rely on guys to pitch back-to-backs at an unhealthy rate - especially for their top arms. Johnson and O'Flaherty each have seven outings where they are pitching on zero days rests. Johnson had 17 last year so he's well on his way to "improving" upon that. That's tied for sixth-most in the NL. Ramirez has five back-to-backs and Vizcaino has four.

I realize I'm picking on Snitker, but the eye test agrees with the numbers. He's not anxious to deviate from his assigned roles for pitchers - even when it would be better for the team. As the Braves consider management options beyond this season, his work with the bullpen could be something that will take him out of contention.