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Showing posts with label JonKennedy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JonKennedy. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Transaction Tuesday - Wisler, Demeritte, Mader, Custred

Lots of moves involving the top teams in the organization this week with just a few notable moves coming from the low minors. Most of them involve Rome, who continue to utilize some creative roster management to deal with tired arms. Trying something new this week with a super-sized spotlight bit on one of the players profiled.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 15 to August 21. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Anthony Hewitt/Released via Wikipedia Commons
SPOTLIGHT - Recalled: Matt Wisler...Switching Matt Wisler to the bullpen full-time has long been advocated by some of the more sabermetrically-inclined Braves fans. A big reason for this was despite all his flaws, one thing Wisler has done well since coming to the majors is throw a plus-plus slider. He doesn't get ridiculous spin rate on the pitch, ranking just 85th over the last three years among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 sliders, but he controls it well. He doesn't have enough innings to qualify, but since 2015, Wisler's wSL/C of 0.71 would rank just outside the Top 30 in baseball.

The problem has been his other pitches - specifically his changeup and curveball. Neither translated well to the majors and subsequently, both have led to a lot of extra base knocks over the last three years. In fact, of the 24 times a hitter has put one of his changeups in play, nearly half have become hits. As a result, Wisler's numbers have steadily worsened as hitters adjusted to lay off his slider. This was particularly problematic as the game went on. While the pendulum almost always favors the hitter the more times he sees the same pitcher in a ball game, Wisler's numbers flatlined the longer he stayed in. The first time through the order, hitters had a 89 tOPS+, which is adjusted for a player's own split. By the second time, it jumped to 102 and then 111. Of particular concern was the ISO that increased from .171 to .191 to .220 by the third time through the order.

About a month ago, the Braves decided it was time to change course with their righty. While his splits don't look good regardless of the time through the order, the Braves saw a pitcher who was trying to establish his other pitches early in the game to be able to go to them later. It didn't help, though. His curve and changeup had little effect. When a pitcher can't spot or induce weak contact on more than one secondary pitch, the simple solution is to move him to the bullpen, which is what the Braves did. While Wisler had been used as a reliever in other outings this year to little success, the difference now was the Braves weren't just using him out of the pen as a fresh arm before he headed back to Gwinnett to be a starter. Now, he would be a reliever full-time.

With two outings in the book, we are seeing a few changes. Number one, he hasn't thrown a changeup. Considering his lack of any success with the pitch, that's a good thing. He's also using his four-seamer and curve as show-me pitches. These changes lead to a reliance on his sinker and slider, which is exactly the type of profile that could lead to Wisler sticking around for the long term. He dominated the Reds, needing just 36 pitches to retire 9-of-11 batters he faced during the weekend. Even more impressive than that game was the latter half of two outings in two days. There's something here and hopefully, the Braves let Wisler sink-or-swim over the rest of the season and there's reason to believe he'll swim.

Recalled and Demoted to Gwinnett: Micah Johnson...I liked the idea of Johnson off the bench, but he's only been used as a pinch hitter over four games spanning two callups. The Braves just don't seem anxious to give him much of a look right now.

Activated: Matt Kemp...The Braves brought back their DH to play LF, which significantly limits the time for their 1B/DH in Matt Adams. Oh, well. Kemp got off to a big start and much was made about his conditioning efforts, but nagging injuries sapped him of much of his offensive game before a trip to the DL. His defense, which is atrocious, continues to a problem for the team and wary of losing his bat late in games, the Braves seem uncomfortable with lifting him for a better glove. Kemp is owed a lot of money over the next two seasons and at this point, it seems like the Braves are saddled with him short of a big run. Well, at least he's not Hector Olivera, right?

Activated: Dan Winkler...Winkler made his return to the majors and retired the only batter he faced Monday while stranding a runner. It won't stand out on a box score, but the road back to the majors has been tough for Winkler. He was in the midst of a second rehab stint after the first one was exhausted with Winkler still needing more time coming back from a fractured elbow. He was shut down for several weeks before returning on August 6. Over his next five appearances, Winkler allowed five singles over five innings with five strikeouts. At least he was consistent. It was also significantly improved over the seven runs over five innings before being shut down. Winkler has a violent delivery, but legit stuff and very good control. If he's able to harness it over the next six or seven weeks, the Braves might have an interesting choice to make as I discussed last week in regards to bringing him back next season.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Optioned: Rex Brothers...The Braves basically got the Rex Brothers Experience - though he was very unlucky (52% left-on-base percentage?). He struck out a bunch of batters, walked too many, and gave up too many homers. Basically, the same stuff he's done since his solid 2013 season. Now, a lot of that was sample-size driven and his 3.91 FIP/3.97 xFIP suggests his 7.63 ERA would have normalized over time, but I'm happy with this demotion as I feel the Braves are wasting too many spots on veterans with little hope of being brought back in 2018. Brothers will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, but it seems unlikely he'll be in the mix for a return. In the mean time, the Braves get some time to make a decision on Winkler. Win, win.

DL'd: Luke Jackson (right shoulder strain)...The Braves have done something the Rangers could not - get Jackson to throw strikes. However, it also seems it hurt his strikeout rate in the process with as it has plummeted to 16%. Overall, Jackson has looked much like a replacement-level arm than a hot prospect. In that, Jackson's case is similar to Chris Withrow. When the latter was acquired, he was hurt, but the scouting reports were that he had a tremendous, sometimes wild, arm and could be a high leverage reliever down the road. The Braves ultimately chose to non-tender Withrow this offseason after a forgetful season of a low strikeout rate and a 4.90 FIP. Jackson has been better - largely due to better control - but the results are still poor. Unlike Withrow, though, Jackson won't be arbitration-eligible and the nearly 26-year-old should return for 2018 if the Braves don't need his roster spot more.

DL'd: Danny Santana (left quad strain)...Santana has had a few good runs here-and-there, but overall, he's been just as bad as he was in 2015 and 2016. So, how did his 2014 slash of .319/.353/.472 happen? Part of it was that the league hadn't adjusted to him, but a much bigger part was a .405 BABIP. Santana has been worth -2.3 fWAR since his rookie season and should not be a guy taking up a roster spot when other younger and potentially more valuable guys are in the minors looking for their shot. What is disheartening about Santana's presence on the team is that Brian Snitker, the Braves manager, seems to have an affinity for the man. During a recent four-game series in Colorado, Santana started all four games. Some of that was due to the fact that Matt Adams was deemed unable to play left field in the expansive Coors Field outfield. But for three of those games, a much better option in Lane Adams was left on the bench. Much like when Emilio Bonifacio was on the roster, Snitker seems to have an undeserved love for Santana that leads to far too much playing time. As a result, it falls on John Coppolella to not enable such poor judgment by having Santana on the team.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Luis Valenzuela...Acquired back in 2015 in the Jonny Gomes trade, Valenzuela only recently returned from the DL after a month on the shelf and wasn't lighting it up at Mississippi so this promotion wasn't that expected. When he was acquired, Valenzuela was hitting the cover off the ball, but over the last two seasons - much of which has been lost to injury - Valenzuela has not done all that much with the bat. A left-hand hitting infielder, Valenzuela is a good glove man, though his limited range keeps him from playing a competent shortstop. At the plate, Valenzuela has yet to see a pitch he didn't like, though with one more walk this season, he will match his career-best total set back in 2013. He walked 14 times that season. Valenzuela has a little pop, but overall, the numbers just aren't there.

Promoted from Florida: Sal Giardina...Old Sal's demotion to Florida was mentioned last week. What remains interesting about the demotion was Giardina never caught with Florida, something that may have more to do with their current catchers than Giardina himself. Not sure where he fits in with Gwinnett, who have Kade Scivicque and David Freitas behind the plate and an already crowded infield situation. Perhaps it's just where there was an open spot?

Activated: Josh Collmenter...He made his much-anticipated Gwinnett debut last week with a pair of solid starts. Like you could ever forget, but Collmenter joined the Braves last September and made three starts in the majors. He was good enough to earn a return via arbitration and as the rotation took shape, Collmenter was ticketed for the long relief role. He held the role until being designated for assignment in late May. He'll be a minor league free agent at the end of the year provided the Braves don't bring him back up for depth purposes next month.

DL'd: Emerson Landoni...DL, Activated, DL, activated, DL, activated, DL, activated, demotion, promotion, DL. That's been this season for Landoni, who has played just 33 games and hit a combined .181/.243/.181 with Gwinnett and Mississippi. He's been floating around professional baseball since 2006 and first joined the Braves back in 2012. Since then, his best single-season OPS is .728. I'm sure he keeps the clubhouse loose, though.

DL'd: David Peterson...A righty out of the College of Charleston, David Peterson has been an organizational favorite who has continued to stick around despite some mediocre numbers along the way. A 2012 pick, Peterson, leads Gwinnett with seven saves and this is the third season he's played with the Braves' top minor league team.

DL'd: Dustin Peterson (#20)...2017 will likely go down as a lost campaign for Peterson, which is very sad considering what he did last year. Peterson is still very young and won't turn 23 for another few weeks so he'll be back for next season. The hamate bone fracture from spring training has been slow to heal completely and last week, he was hit-by-a-pitch again. I'm not sure how bad it was, but he was immediately removed and placed on the DL soon after. Peterson has hit .255/.327/.328 this season, though he's hit left-handers with much better results (in significantly fewer PA, of course).

Mississippi
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated: Travis Demeritte (#12)...On the fortunate side, Demeritte only missed ten days on the DL. His return has seen the second baseman, who has struggled nearly all season, go 6-for-21 with a double, four walks, and five Ks. That actually continues a solid start to August that preceded his DL assignment as Demeritte is hitting .279/.380/.488 over 50 PA this month. That's a huge improvement over his June and July numbers in which he hit .165/.243/.312 with 60 Ks in 190 PA. The Braves would love nothing more than to see Demeritte finish strong, which makes their decision on whether or not they should protect him in the Rule 5 draft much easier. Nobody doubts the impressive combination of power and defense, but will he hit enough? I still believe he will, but it's been a very tough season, to say the least.

Activated: Michael Mader...The belief heading into this season was that the Braves had stolen Mader off the Marlins. Unfortunately, his results haven't supported that belief and his return after nearly a month on the DL didn't show any signs of that changing. He faced six batters and retired just one. The other five scored. He walked a pair, continuing a season-long issue with free passes in which his walk rate is double what it was last season. This looks like a potentially lost season for Mader, who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft and could interest some teams out there as a lefty with projection.

Florida
Demoted from Mississippi: Andres Santiago...Santiago's first move this year was an assignment to Florida. His demotion last week was the 15th move of this season for the righty, who spent much of the spring on the Team Puerto Rico WBC team as an alternate. Santiago has been pitching professional ball since 2007 with little success mixed in. His value to the Braves is similar to Rudy's value to Notre Dame. The Braves can simply say that his "greatest value to is we don't care whether you get hurt."

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Matt Custred...Most of the following demotions/promotions are related to roster manipulation as Rome has thrown a lot of innings over the last couple of weeks. I mentioned last week when he was "demoted" that Custred has actually earned a promotion up the ladder. He continued to show why with three more scoreless innings this week and four strikeouts. That gives him a 1.04 ERA/2.47 FIP on the year with a 33% strikeout rate. Considering he's repeating Rome, it's really puzzling why he hasn't received a promotion to Florida when 27-year-old journeymen like Santiago are struggling in the FSL. With the season winding down, we might not see Custred in high-A until next year, though it also wouldn't surprise me much to see him jump to Double-A with a good spring.

Demoted to Danville and promoted back: Walter Borkovich...This wasn't the usual "demotion to give him a few days" as Rome manipulates the roster as The Bork made a triumphant return with Danville. Before that, he threw three innings on August 15th in one of Rome's marathon games last week (which also included a double header). While down with Danville, Borkovich made his first appearance for the D-Braves in nearly three weeks and worked around an error to strike out the side for his second APPY save. He returned two days later to Rome and surrendered a walk-off single with the run charged to Ryan Schlosser. Borkovich is a personal favorite in that the righty went undrafted out of Michigan State and all he's done since is post a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings with three walks and 23 strikeouts. To be fair, Borkovich is not a scout's dream. He doesn't really have a plus pitch, which is why he wasn't one of the 1200 or so players selected in June. But to this point, he hasn't let that hold him back. Perhaps a scout saw something no one else did. Whatever the case, Borkovich is clearing his first hurdle - showing he belongs.

Demoted to Danville and promoted back: Jon Kennedy...First, I believe that this Braves nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing an Australian man with a famous name in the majors. Jon Kennedy is one of my little prospect crushes. He has some talent, but maybe not enough to be a high leverage arm in the majors. That said, the youth lefty who impressed a member of Melbourne in the Australian Baseball League has been very successful over the last two seasons. 2016 was a season for him to get his feet wet. He pitched mostly with Rome with a four-game stop in Danville and even a one-game cameo in Carolina. This season, he has logged nearly 70 innings - almost exclusively out of the pen - for Rome. He won't blow you away with his strikeout numbers, but he has a Greg Maddux-like _FIVE_ walks on the year. Strangely, he has as many wild pitches as he does walks. He keeps the ball on the ground (57%) and has matched a 2.84 ERA with a 2.80 FIP/2.98 xFIP. Rome is flush with some very successful arms this year coming out of the bullpen and Kennedy might not be the most deserving of a promotion (that honor falls on Custred or Thomas Burrows), but as long as Kennedy is rolling, he's a guy that could get to the majors before the end of this decade at least in a specialist role - though that doesn't line up with his splits stats.

Danville
Promoted to Rome and demoted back: Landon Hughes...Called up for a fresh arm, Hughes made his Low-A debut last week and surrendered two runs, one earned over 1.1 innings. He was uncharacteristically wild, throwing just 22 strikes out of 39 pitches and walking three. Considering he walked just three over his previous nine appearances, ranging 12.2 ING, we'll chalk it up to first-time jitters and/or everything being new. He gave up two more runs three days later in his return to Danville as the Princeton Rays took advantage of Alan Crowley to swipe two bases in the ninth and score the tying and eventual winning runs. From my own personal experiences, I've seen both the Good Hughes and Not-So-Good Hughes. The latter nibbles and pitches himself into trouble. The former is confident and combines a good breaking ball with a lively fastball. In one game I watched, he was easily the most impressive Danville pitcher that I saw. The righty is tall and has some solid overall marks with Danville this season - 1.50 ERA over 18 innings, 5 walks, 22 Ks. A 7th rounder in June, Hughes could be a nice little relief prospect moving forward.

Demoted from Rome: Bladimir Matos...Another move made largely due to last week's crazy collection of games, including a 16-inning affair. Matos tossed four big innings that night, getting the game to the 15th inning with no runs allowed. He walked four so he wasn't super effective, but no runs scored and it allowed infielder Kurt Hoekstra the opportunity to throw two innings for the win after Rome scored six in the top of the 16th. Matos has appeared in 36 games with Rome this year and wildness have continued to plague him with a 12% walk rate. Even though he struck out just one in his four innings during his last game with Rome before this "demotion," Matos is riding the best K-rate of his career by striking out 27% of all batters. Matos is not a big prospect, but the righty is doing what he needs to do to stay in the Braves' good graces.

GCL:
Demoted from Danville: Connor Johnstone...A 21st-rounder out of Wake Forest, Johnstone made three starts in Danville to open the season. There was no move announced, but after being removed on July 6 after just two frames, Johnstone was not heard of for the next month-and-a-half until he showed back up on the transaction page last week. It suggests an injury, but hard to tell as Johnstone doesn't have much of a social media presence that I know of. Johnstone was one of the ACC's best pitchers this year and even threw a Maddux (96-pitch) against Miami. He didn't have big strikeout numbers in college, but a cutter he added to his game this year was a big reason he went from un-draftable to the 21st round. Surprisingly, he got off to a good start with strikeouts as a professional, picking up 12 of them in 10 innings with Danville. He was also hurt by the gopher ball, surrendering two which helped to lead to six runs. He's yet to pitch for the GCL club.

DSL:
Assigned: Jose Olague...The Braves made up for their signing bonus restrictions this J2 period by going the quantity route. Olague is an 18-year-old with nearly no information related to him. I can tell you that Olague comes from the Basque word "ola," which means "forge." Man, scraping the bottom of the barrel here. @FONZY541 suggested that Olague may be from Mexico after one bearing the same name was on the Naranjeros de Hermosillo roster as a 15-year-old a few years ago. Either way, Olague had a successful professional debut last week, tossing a pair of scoreless innings with two Ks against one of the Red Sox farm clubs.

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Saturday Stats Pack: Flowers, Stolen Bases, Bullpen, Sims

Unlike last season where I posted two separate entries, I'm going to try to do one Saturday Stats Pack with both major league and minor league notable stats. So, without too much stalling, here is this week's edition.

Tyler Flowers (By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0],
via Wikimedia Commons)
.344 wOBA

Over the last two seasons, only six catchers have stepped into the batter's box at least 350 times and have a better weighted on-base average than Tyler Flowers. They include the current elite of the elite (Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy), the young Willson Contreras, a career-year from Wilson Ramos, the impressive Yasmani Grandal, and a part-time backstop in Evan Gattis. This is a surprise for White Sox fans, who saw Flowers post a wOBA of almost a hundred points lower during nearly 1400 PA playing in the black-and-white. To put it in simple terms, Flowers is simply making better contact. While with the White Sox, 20% of the balls he hit were given a soft-contact classification. There is a correlation between a high Soft% and a lower BABIP. Unsurprisingly, Flowers' BABIP has surged since coming to the Braves as he's lowered his Soft% to 13.4%. Meanwhile, his Hard-Hit rate has climbed 12 points. No catcher since 2016 can match it. Sure, there do remain sample size concerns here, but Flowers is winning over doubters every week that he continues to produce.

82.4%

So far, the Braves are 14-for-17 in stolen bases - a success rate of 82.4%. This would be some kind of franchise record. Only once in franchise history have the Braves reached the 80% threshold. That came in 1941 when the Braves swiped 61-of-76, good for an 80.3% rate. The Braves' best rate since moving to Atlanta came in 2012 when the Michael Bourn-Jason Heyward-Martin Prado outfield helped the Braves steal a shade under 76% of their attempts. Last year, they only stole 69%, which is still nice, I hear.

62.2 Innings

For all of the vitriol the Braves bullpen has received - and sometimes deserves - Brian Snitker has relied on his relievers for the third-fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball. Compared to the Reds, the Braves have needed 35.1 fewer innings from their relievers. To be fair, though...part of that accomplishment is because Atlanta has played, along with a few other teams, the fewest games in baseball - though the Reds have played just two more. Atlanta's starters have thrown 123 innings, good for 23rd.

What Are We, Anyway?

After Roger McDowell was let go, I wondered if it would alter how the Braves tried to pitch. McDowell was a guy who stressed the importance of pitching low and getting grounders. So far, the Braves pitching staff doesn't seem to be doing anything at a rate that suggests any kind of philosophy. Their strikeout rate is fourth worst, their walk rate is 11th worst, and only six teams induce fewer grounders. Their HR/FB rate is in the middle of the pact. However...they do one thing that stands out. 22% of the balls that batters connect on are rated as softly hit. This may be due, in part, because only the Cubs have a worse fastball velocity than the Braves. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if anything substantial comes from a Chuck Hernandez-led pitching staff like the McDowell years.

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr
Minor League Stats of Interest...Gwinnett - 2.3 BB/9

There's nothing too exciting about the walk rate above until you bring it into context. Since 2015, Lucas Sims' walks per nine innings have ranged from 5.2 and 5.9. Before that, he kept it around 3.5 BB/9 - which isn't great, but certainly something that can be worked around as a starting prospect. Early on this season, we have seen a possible return to the pre-2015 version of Sims. In 23.2 innings, Sims has walked just six. Sims has always had the stuff and typically carries a low H/9 as a result. Now, he's keeping batters off base, though the BABIP is artificially too low and will climb. The Sims of 2017 is no longer a top prospect. Outfield Fly Rule did a composite list of his rating according to Braves' top prospect lists and he landed #21 - a bit lower than my ranking of #18. However, if he continues to pitch like the top-flight prospect he once was, it's only a matter of time until he gets a shot to show what he has.

Mississippi - 38.4%

Travis Demeritte has routinely seen his prospect status hurt by his strikeout rate. It was 33% last season and 35% the season before. The offensive skills are intriguing, but the strikeouts are an issue. And, to be frank, a strikeout rate of 38.4% is very bad. The thing is...that rate is about 20% higher than Demeritte's, who has only struck out in 18% of his plate appearances this year. Instead, the 38.4% strikeout rate belongs to Connor Lien. The defensively minded outfielder became a bit of a prospect back in 2015 when he slashed .285/.347/.415 at high-A ball with a plethora of big defensive plays, but injuries limited him to just 64 games when he played at Double-A last season. So far this season, he's put a clinic on how not to reclaim your prospect status. Lien has hit four homers and stolen five bases - trends that could end with season stats that look rather solid. But at a near 40% strikeout rate (compared to a near 5% walk rate), he'll be in line for some problematic times.

Florida - 7.20 ERA, but Trending Up

Touki Toussaint is still a raw pitcher facing hitters that are older and more experienced than he is. He's trying to solve high-A ball for the first time and is still over a month away from turning 21. You might look at his 7.20 ERA and say "he's just not ready for the Florida State League." I, on the other hand, look at his K/BB rate and start to get excited. Like Lucas Sims, Toussaint's stuff is off the charts. In fact, his stuff is as good as anyone's in minor league baseball. What talent evaluators have doubts about are his ability to harness and control that stuff. He's been hit hard so far this season, but his 3.8 K/BB rate tells me he might be "getting it" a bit more. Consider that his career rate is 1.75 strikeouts per walk. Don't be discouraged if you see that ERA. Something good might just be happening here.

Rome - Waves Upon Waves

We've heard how John Coppolella and company want to build a farm system that will send prospects to the majors in waves. After last season's Rome pitching staff that included three former first round picks led the team to a league title, the next wave has landed in Rome and the South Atlantic League has turned into their playground. In 22 games, the staff has a 2.28 ERA. Starters Ian Anderson (1.93 ERA), Joey Wentz (2.70), and Bryse Wilson (2.55) were all plucked out of the first-thru-fourth rounds last year and each has been excellent. Relievers Thomas Burrows, Jon Kennedy, and Matt Custred each have ERAs under 1.00. As a staff, Rome has a K/9 of 9.7 per nine and have surrendered just four homers. It's early, but it looks like Rome will be a favorite to repeat in the South Atlantic League.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #50-#41

The Atlanta Braves system is ridiculously stacked. Oh, sure, some have argued that most of its elite talent is at A-ball or lower. They aren't wrong, but that doesn't change how much talent the Braves have now. Considering how many prospects the team has added since the winter of 2014-15, the turnaround has been astounding. The front office, scouting department, and development team have outdone themselves.

Last week, I gave you five names I like, but who missed my Top 50 Prospects. Today, I start counting down the Top 50 with the bottom ten. Though I grade these guys at the tail end of my Top 50, I don't expect many of them to fall out of the list - if any. Rather, I expect quite a few to climb up the list by midseason and next offseason.

Added January 12, 2017. I originally set out to do a Top 50, but after this trade with the Mariners, I had to adjust my numbers. As such, I have altered the rankings to squeeze in the two new prospects. Next week, I will do a dozen prospects to get back on track with release ten prospects weekly until the Top 10.

52. Jon Kennedy, LHP, 21 years-old, Prospect Grade: C

While his name immediately brings up images of American political royalty, Kennedy is a native of Melbourne, Australia. Standing 6'5", Kennedy got his first break at the tender age of 16 while playing for the Melbourne Aces in the Australian Baseball League. For three years, he rarely pitched at Australia's highest level, but the fact that he did at all was impressive because of his age. Before the 2015 season was to kick off in Australia, interest was beginning to rise in Kennedy. Baltimore considered him before the Braves came away impressed enough to sign him.

Kennedy would still pitch one more year for Melbourne, but with the Braves' support, he became a regular starter for the Aces. After the season wrapped up, he soon made the trip to the states and pitched well to make the Rome roster out of spring training. After a couple of ugly games, he was moved back down a peg to wait for the Danville season to begin. It wouldn't be the first time he went up to Rome before spending more time with Danville. His last game was a two-inning stint with Carolina where he struck out four.

On the season, Kennedy had a 2.93 ERA over 30.2 innings with just 4 walks and 29 strikeouts. While scouting reports are scarce for Kennedy, he works off a 90 mph fastball and a breaking pitch that gets a good deal of movement from his 3/4's delivery. While new to the American scene, Kennedy understands that his path to the majors might be pretty narrow and limited to a left-hand specialist role. If he continues to show he's capable of generating K's with good control, he could follow that path all the way to the bigs.



51. Isranel Wilson, OF, 19 years-old, Grade: C

Few minor leaguers sparked more interest from me than Wilson heading into 2016. One of the first big splashes made by the Holy John Trinity after Frank Wren's firing, Wilson was aggressively pushed to the Gulf Coast League to begin 2015. After a terrible start, he raked over the last month-plus to finish the season with a .349 OBP, .257 ISO, and 149 wRC+. Did I mention he never faced a pitcher he was older than and was in his first year in a new country?

There were a lot of reasons to be excited about Wilson heading into 2016. And then...the season actually happened. He slashed .192/.276/.315 over nearly 150 PA. After hitting ten homers in the GCL, he hit just two in 2016. His walk % fell 5% while his ISO came down 134 points. If all of this wasn't confusing enough, his BABIP was actually 17 points higher in 2016.

This leaves us with a really muddled snapshot of Wilson as a player. A left-hand hitter, Wilson's swing looks like it will lead to pulling the ball a good deal and when he does connect, he hits the ball pretty solidly. Right now, Wilson could return to prospect status or continue to fall off. The natural gifts are there, but can he display them on the field? I would be shocked if Wilson doesn't start the year in extended spring training and we might not see him play until the Appalachian League season opens in June. Until then, his Jekyll and Hyde act is all we have.



50. Yoeli Lopez, OF, 19 years-old, Grade: C

There wasn't a lot to cheer about last summer for the Dominican Summer League Braves. They finished ten games under .500 and twelve games back in the San Pedro Division. One of the few bright spots, however, was Yoeli Lopez. Born in the Dominican Republic, but schooled in Miami, 2016 was the first year of Lopez's career and the results were pretty impressive.

Lopez played in nearly every game while slashing .240/.382/.357 with 3 homers and 11 steals. Consider that the DSL Braves hit just 9 homers overall. Lopez possesses a big swing and showed impressive plate discipline last year (though he struck out way too much). He also was hit 19 times, which could be an indicator of him crowding the plate. Obviously, there's not a lot of information about Lopez to this point and DSL outfielders are notorious for flaming out once they come to the states. Nevertheless, keep an eye on Lopez. There might be something here.




49. Carlos Castro, 1B, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

For three years, Castro labored in the Dominican Summer League. First signed in 2011, between 2012-14, he played in 124 games in the DSL as the Braves tried see if he could stick at catcher. Ultimately, his defensive issues led them to decide that he wasn't, but thtat didn't hold him back. After a .308/.378/.450 run in 2014, he was brought state-side.

Already 21 and now with Danville, Castro played backup to converted 3B Juan Yepez at first base as Yepez was the higher-rated prospect. Most of Castro's at-bats came as the team's DH and while he did hit .319, he showed little pop and appeared quite willing to swing at any-and-everything. In 2016, Castro was waiting around in extended spring training when injuries and poor play finally opened up a spot in Rome. He collected a pair of hits on May 23, his first game of the year, and his season was off and running. June was especially good as he hammered nine homeruns, including a pair of two-homer games. Amazingly, he hit just .221 that month and rarely hit a single. Even more curious, as the months transpired, the higher his average climbed, the lower his power numbers went. On the season, he slashed .266/.301/.508 with 17 homers. The dinger total was second to Austin Riley in the system.

But he was a bit old to get much prospect love in the South Atlantic League. His teammate, Riley, was in his Age-19 season and Dustin Peterson, who was two levels above Castro, was also a year younger. That's why Castro's power numbers, while impressive, won't push him high on my list. Nevertheless, considering he had hit just six homers in four years before 2016, it was a breakout season worth more attention. Castro has his faults - he hasn't seen a pitch he didn't think was worth swinging at, for one. Unless he hits .300 or better, his on-base percentage will be a concern. Plus, right-handed first baseman rarely make for defensive wonders. Still, over the last three years, he's averaged around a 125 wRC+. I'm sure Atlanta hopes he swings a big stick early in Florida, which will allow them to aggressively push him up to Double-A.




48. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, 19 years-old, Grade: C 

It seems like forever ago that Mejia burst on the scene with a strong 2014. Starting the year in the Dominican Summer League, the almost 17-year-old blitzed the DSL with 52 K's in 59 innings and just 11 walks. The native of Nicaragua made the rare in-season transition to the states and finished with 15 innings in the GCL. He faced just 16 hitters the entire year who were younger than him.

The expectations were sky-high for Mejia heading into 2015, but it would be a season to forget for the young lefty. After just 21.2 innings where the results were much more miserable, Mejia hit the DL  - a place he would remain for the rest of the year. He would return last season for 35.2 innings - still in the Gulf Coast League - and rebounded with a 2.96 FIP.

On the smallish side at just 5'11", Mejia has three pitches including a low-to-mid 90's fastball. He works off control (career 2.0 BB/9) and isn't likely to strikeout a ton of batters. He's kept the ball in the ballpark to this point, though that will be tested as he climbs the minor league ladder. I imagine the Braves would love to work him into the picture at Rome this season either before the Appalachian League season begins or after. He turns 20 in July so the time to get moving is now.

Below is the only video I could find of Mejia. It's in Spanish and you will have to skip to about 1:25 to see a brief clip of him.



47. Anfernee Seymour, SS, 21 years-old, Grade: C 

The 2016 Baseball Prospectus book had this to say about Seymour. "A local high school product, Anfernee Seymour was popped in the seventh round in 2014 because he's fast. He swiped the second-most bags in the New York-Penn League also because he's fast. He's fast." And that basically sums up Seymour to this point. In 215 career games, Seymour has swiped 83 bases and has been caught 21 times. But the bat...well, we're still waiting.

Acquired last season in the Hunter Cervenka trade, Seymour hit .257/.296/.303 at a pair of South Atlantic League stops last year. His walk rate was under 5% and his strikeout rate was on the wrong side of 20%. Seymour is a player who I don't see nearly as fondly as MLB Pipeline, which currently ranks him 19th (better than Patrick Weigel, A.J. Minter, and Braxton Davidson).

There is some skill here. A switch-hitter, Seymour is a good bunter, but doesn't use his speed well enough when he's swinging. With his lean frame, he ought to cut down on his swing and serve the ball where it's thrown. Instead, he too often tries the old Kevin Millwood method to hitting - Swing-Hard-In-Case-You-Hit-It. Millwood was a pitcher, though.

Seymour is also not a very gifted fielder. He has the speed to make up, to some degree, for iffy instincts and bad decisions in the field, but that still means that he's putting himself at a disadvantage. I could see the Braves moving him to second base, where his arm plays better. Atlanta could also try him again in the outfield, which he played some of in 2014. Either way, I don't foresee Seymour living up to the Top 20 MLB Pipeline billing.



46. Bryse Wilson, RHP, 19 years-old, grade: C

The 109th overall pick of the 2016 draft, the Braves had to convince Wilson to not attend UNC and instead, sign with Atlanta. By doing so, they put the cherry on the top of what was the 2016 draft. For a sign of how dominant Wilson was at Orange High School (Hillsborough, NC), you need only know this - he tossed multiple no-hitters his senior year. Multiple. As in, more than one.

Wilson spent the summer in the Gulf Coast League and in 26.2 innings, he K'd 29 and allowed just two earned runs. In six of his nine starts, he had at least a 2-to-1 GB to FB rate. Even though he didn't allow many baserunners, he induced four double plays in less than 30 innings of work. It remains to be seen if that groundball tendency will continue, though.

Standing 6'1" and weighing a stout 225 pounds, Wilson relies on a heater capable of reaching the mid-90's. To supplement his fastball, he throws a slider that has plus potential. The issue with Wilson and why I may rank him a bit lower than others is whether or not he profiles as a starter as he rises through the system. He needs an offspeed delivery and has to refine his slider to keep that option available. Nevertheless, for a 19-year-old, he's pretty dang impressive and should climb this and other prospect lists by next year.



45. Kade Scivicque, Catcher, 24 years-old, Grade: C

Originally a fourth-round pick out of LSU, Scivicque is, by default, the top catching prospect in terms of level + potential. I say default because the only real catching prospects are still A-ball and under. Still, Scivicque has some skills that might get him to the majors.

Before being acquired in August for Erick Aybar, Scivicque made quick work of the New York-Penn League and Midwest League. At the time of the deal, he was hitting .282/.324/.379 in the Florida State League. A right-handed hitter and thrower, Scivicque would split time between Carolina and Mississippi to end the regular season. He would also get an assignment in the Arizona Fall League where he posted an out-of-character 151 wRC+ over ten games.

Scivicque isn't particularly gifted behind the plate, though he is recognized as a solid game caller with good leadership skills. I've heard that he's a solid pitch framer as well. At the plate, he's fairly aggressive and his level swing mutes much in terms of power. A lot will have to go right to get Scivicque to the majors and he probably will max out as a backup. Nevertheless, that's still pretty good return for a month-and-a-half of Aybar.



44. Yunior Severino, SS, 17 years-old, Grade: C

It's easy to forget about the prospects signed last July who aren't named Kevin Maitan, but Severino was a big "get" in his own right. Ranked #8th among international prospects entering the signing period by Baseball America, Severino received a million to join the Braves. He won't make his debut until this season at the earliest, though he could skip the Dominican Summer League and immediately start his career in the GCL. A switch-hitter, Severino might still outgrow shortstop (the jury's still out), though he could stay in the middle infield and play second base. If so, he could be a big threat at second base as a potential 20-HR player.

Obviously, there isn't much information to go with here until we see Severino in game action, which won't happen until next June. With that said, last year's bounty of players has a chance to remake the franchise and Severino can play a starring role in doing so.



43. Abrahan Guiterrez, Catcher, 17 years-old, Grade: C

As far as pure potential goes, the Braves don't have a better catching prospect than Guitierrez. Signed for just $750K less than Kevin Maitan last July ($3.5M total), Guiterrez was ranked #15th in Baseball America's Top 50. Born on Halloween in 1999 in Venezuela, Guiterrez is a right-handed thrower and hitter.

Much like with Severino, right now, we are living on hype as we try to put together a scouting report. Guiterrez has a quick release behind the plate, though his footwork isn't very efficient yet. He's a little taller than you might like for a catcher (6'2"), but shows impressive athleticism behind the plate with mature (for his age) receiving skills. At the plate, he has a quick bat and the ability to serve line drives all over the field.

The Braves haven't had a catcher who was signed on the international market who later became a big contributor at the major league level since Javy Lopez. Could Guiterrez change that? Time will tell.



The Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Guiterrez

Check back next week for the next ten prospects as I continue to countdown to #1.