The Freeman-To-Third 120 Inning Checkup

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

I hated the idea of moving an elite first baseman to third base. It's difficult enough to play third base, but to chance your franchise cornerstone at a position he seemed unlikely to play at a decent rate? Why in the world would you do something like that? Just because he suggested it? Who's running the team?

And yes, I put a few of these arguments on this blog. I compared the hypothetical third-base-playing Freeman to Johan Camargo, which was unfair because Camargo is a very good third baseman (better than he is a shortstop, I'd wager). I compared the idea of Freeman playing third to Miguel Cabrera playing the position for the Tigers and how poorly Cabrera played it. My overall point was, "Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season?"

Boy, that looks like a typical blogger's overreaction. To this point, Freeman looks quite capable of playing the hot corner and maybe even staying there. Let me give you some numbers. Of major league third baseman with 120 innings at the position this year...

Freeman ranks tied for 12th in DRS with some pretty good defensive players in Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado. He ranks 13th in rPM. He ranks 10th in RZR.

But short sample size...

Freeman is now 24th in UZR/150 and climbing. He could be in the top 20 by mid-August and even higher by season's end.

But Tommy, it's just 120 innings...

And did you see some of the plays he's been making? The double play he started the other day? Catching this liner? The guy's a natural.



But...

Okay, I do hear you. It's an exceedingly short sample size. There are 54 players who have played 120+ innings at third base this year and defensive metrics, in general, aren't valuable until we have a couple of years in the tank to compare-and-contrast with. It's not that I don't get that and his numbers could regress to the point that Freeman isn't a better-than-average third baseman. Or maybe not even an average third baseman. Regardless, we might know a few things.

He's not an embarrassment at the position - something many of us (myself included) feared he'd be. He might not even lose overall value at the position. In fact, because third base is a more difficult position to play, he might see his value increased. That's a pretty difficult thing to do when you're an elite superstar at another position, but league-average defense at a tougher-to-play position is a more valuable asset. Finally, the Braves could head into next year with Freeman penciled in at third base and not feel like it is a huge problem.

None of that should be construed as believing Freeman shouldn't be moved back to first base. I do feel the Braves would be better off with that because, in a perfect world, the Braves have Dansby Swanson back and hitting at shortstop with Camargo slotting over to third base for the time being. But while Freeman isn't Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, or Jedd Gyorko at the position, to this point, he's also not Maikel Franco or Jake Lamb. For that matter, he's also not Chris Johnson or Adonis Garcia. He won't win a Gold Glove, but he seems capable enough of not hurting the team. Isn't that all the Braves were hoping for in the first place?

Walk-Off Talk 1.6: Finding A Partner (Part 3) - The Matt Adams Conundrum

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Next, we looked at one-year assets like Jason Motte and Kurt Suzuki and tried to locate interested parties. Today, we focus completely on one player and his effect on the Braves' franchise player. Events occur in real time.) 

Ryan,

So, here we go. Matt Adams. Oh, boy.

When we mapped out this series, I thought Big City would need his own Big Post because of all the potential teams that theoretically would have an interest in him. However, over the last week, we have seen something intriguing happen. Freddie Freeman - whose injury prompted the Adams deal in the first place - volunteered to move over to third base to allow the Braves to have a starting nine that includes both Adams and Freeman in it.

First, we need to address that before even talking about potential partners for Adams in a deal. On Twitter, you have indicated a willingness to see this move out in a serious, thoughtful manner. On the other hand, yours truly made a joke about how I used John Kruk at shortstop in RBI Baseball and it’s one of my most popular tweets ever. Twitter’s a weird place sometimes.

My general thoughts: Third base has been a dumpster fire for the Braves since the retirement of Chipper Jones. Since the old man last played for the Braves, Braves third basemen have been worth 5.9 fWAR. That ranks 26th of 30 teams. Only three teams have seen their third basemen hit fewer home runs. And imagine how worse things would look without Chris Johnson's God of BABIP-infused 2.5 fWAR season in 2013.

Freddie Freeman's bat certainly would look good at third base. Having both Freeman and Adams in the lineup makes the Braves all the more dangerous provided Adams continues to play out of his mind. Clearly, the Braves can't bench Adams right now to bring back Freeman. It's like a football team benching the hot hand at running back because their former starter has returned. You find a way to utilize both while they are on the same team.

On the other hand - how much defensive value will you sacrifice to get both of these bats in the lineup? Freeman is a better fielder at first base than Adams, but ignoring that, Freeman hasn't played third base in a decade. When the Tigers asked Miguel Cabrera to play third base, at least he had a recent history of playing the position. Third base is not an easy position to play. Chipper Jones was a shortstop who converted to third base and at his very best, he was merely average. Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season? I’m not even going to get into the very real possibility of an increased likelihood of injury with Freeman playing a position he’s not comfortable with.

I get the "what do we have to lose?" crowd. I do. But I don't find that argument particularly compelling. Try to convince me otherwise. 

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Tommy,

I’m not going to try to convince anyone that this is a good idea. In fact, if the Braves can still get a stud prospect for Matt Adams, I’m okay with that. But if they don’t go the trade route and they want to explore the idea of moving Freddie to 3rd base, I’d also be down for the trial.

Look, by no means do I think he’s going to be a good defender at 3rd. He lacks range, that’s been well-documented in his years at first base. However, 3B isn’t as much about range as it is reaction, and he has good hands and a good arm but coming in on the ball will be difficult. I think it’s about 90% likely he’d be a below-average defender there if he stayed at 3B beyond 2017. He could be as bad as Miguel Cabrera was in 2013, in which he spent over 1200 innings at the hot corner and “collected” -18 Defensive Runs Saved.

But want to know something else? Miguel was out of his mind good at the plate that year and even his abysmal defense couldn’t hold him back from a 7.5 fWAR year. Although impressive, Miguel’s 2013 still doesn’t match the production of what Freeman was doing before the injury.

But the 10% of this idea is what really intrigues me the most. What if Freddie Freeman can be a defensively average 3rd baseman for this year...and even beyond? What if Matt Adams and his new physique can continue to crush in an Atlanta uniform and decided to stick around for a few years? Can you imagine a couple of LH power hitters at infield corners for the Braves for 4-5 years, popping 40 dingers a year? So, the move to 3B for Freddie is only part of what grabs me about this idea. That Adams is breaking out on a nightly basis, he’s in peak physical shape for his career, and that he’s entering his prime years of production are the X-factors that moves this idea from, “Are you out of your MIND?” to “Okay. This intrigues me.” 

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Ryan,

I just want to make a few more comments on this before moving onto another possibility.

The Braves won against Milwaukee on Friday night in no small part because they had a capable defender at third base. With runners on first-and-second - and that run on second was the tying run - a hard shot was hit to third base that Johan Camargo quickly ranged to his left, grabbed the ball, and tossed a strike to second to begin a double play that ended the Brewers' threat. He had no time to waste if he wanted to make the play. In the ninth, after a leadoff double, Dansby Swanson fielded a ball on a grounder up the middle. He expected - and was rewarded with - the third baseman quickly heading to the bag for a possible throw. Camargo received the throw and tagged out the runner. The next batter lifted a long flyball that would have scored the tying run had it not been for Swanson’s heady play.

Does Freeman make those plays? Maybe the second one provided he doesn't get caught napping, but I definitely think he doesn't make the first one.

"But Tommy, in the late innings, they can switch out Camargo for Adams and move Freeman to first for defense."

True, but what if that play happens in the fourth inning and instead of a double play happening, a three-run inning occurs? Try working your way back from that. I know many people think us Deputy Downers are making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to defense, but it matters, buddy. It really does. You mentioned the 2013 Tigers. Ignoring that Cabrera played third base full-time in '07 and '08 and switched back to the position in '12, the 2013 Tigers bashed their way to 93 wins. They also had the fourth largest difference between ERA and FIP in that their FIP was 0.35 below their team ERA. They actually led the league in FIP, but finished ninth (third in the AL) in ERA. They also had something the Braves don't have. Strikeout pitchers. 60% of their rotation was 200-K pitchers and they rely significantly less on their defense than guys like Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey. All I'm saying is that defense matters and ignoring it won't make the Braves much better.

But maybe everything I wrote is for not. Maybe the Braves are doing everything in their power to retain trade value for Matt Adams. Maybe they want the league to be so sure that they'll keep Adams and play Freeman at third only to ensure maximum interest in the slugging Big City. Some have suggested that and while I have a difficult time believing that the Braves - and Freeman - would do this much to convince the league of something they don't actively want to do, anything's possible. So, what say you? Are the Braves trying hard to convince of something that they don't particularly want?

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Tommy,

Defense matters and while I’d like to argue with your points above, I cannot do it and look at myself naked in the mirror tomorrow morning. The risk factor ultimately breaks down to this: Does the offensive upside outweigh what is likely to be below average defense at the hot corner. I cannot answer that until I see a year of it, and honestly I don’t think we will see it play out for that long. Someone is going to offer Coppy something he cannot refuse and, if history rings true, Braves country will either be really happy or ready to burn Suntrust down.

I’m sometimes a conspiracy theorist when it comes to Braves rumors, how they start circulating, and I do believe that the Braves use Mark Bowman a whole heckuva lot when trying to boost value. However, I think this little nugget simply fell into their lap in the form of an unselfish Freddie Freeman. It sounds to me that he’s dead-set on coming back a 3-bagger and that confidence and daily work at the position has itself raised Adams’s value...and someone’s going to pony-up a prospect or 6! What do you think he brings back?

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Ryan,

I have to agree. I don’t buy into the premise that the Braves are letting Freddie Freeman take ground balls at third because they are trying to convince everyone of something they aren’t considering. Instead, I am sure they are considering moving Freeman to third. I don’t like it, but that’s where we are.

Perhaps the option won’t be given to Freeman, though. As you eluded to, the Braves could simply trade away Adams and Freeman would slide back into his usual first baseman gig. But where? And more importantly, what kind of package can the Braves truly expect here?

I’ll look at the latter question first. Adams has absolutely crushed it since joining the Braves just over a month ago. He's bashed a dozen homers in nearly 150 PA with an isolated slugging over .300, a .401 wOBA, and a 148 wRC+. Everything he hits seems to be hard and screaming through the air. For all of the reasons many Braves fans are against trading Adams, you have to imagine that his trade value is climbing.

But how far? Here's where I want to be a little grounded. He's a first baseman who historically is platoon-limited. Is he breaking out in a big way? Potentially, but other teams may not be anxious to hand over A-grade prospects for a guy they grade as position-limited and platoon-limited. That's why he only cost Juan Yepez in the first place. Now, his value has to be higher now, but I don't think he's going to bring back a piece that immediately becomes a Top 5 organizational prospect. Maybe a Top 10 guy, though. Maybe.

And that leads us to who might be interested.

New York Yankees - This matchup is almost too perfect. The Yankees have a deep farm system after selling off their assets last year and have to be anxious to upgrade their first base situation. Chris Carter was brought in, but bombed. Greg Bird is starting to show signs of life, but any value they get back on him at this point is bonus. Tyler Austin recently replaced Carter and is a decent piece, but not a huge prospect by any means. This is a perfect matchup for the Braves.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - I swear they are fit for most of the Braves' pieces. The problem for the Angels is that after years of selling off assets like Sean Newcomb to compete in the majors, their farm system is bare. Like butt naked bare.

Seattle Mariners - Another repeat appearance for the M's as possible trading partners before the deadline. Danny Valencia has bombed so far this season and might be a better fit in his former utility role. The M's could bring back Dan Vogelbach for an extended look, but with them hovering around .500, might they look to seize the day with a big Adams pickup?

Texas Rangers - Sticking with the AL West, the Rangers platoon of Mike Napoli and Ryan Rua has been a failure. With the Rangers' lineup slacking, Adams would be a good fit for them. Add in a potential bigger deal involving Jaime Garcia and the Rangers could surrender a few good pieces to the Braves.

What are some other good fits? And what do you believe a good package for Adams might look like?

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After last year’s trade deadline which saw asinine prices for 1-year rentals, I really have no idea what players will cost on this market. But here’s the deal, Tommy. Coppy’s not going to trade Adams just to stockpile another prospect in the system. He’s going to look for serious impact at a position that needs it. If not, then his discussion prior to the season regarding trades becomes null. Sure, no one can argue that he needs to trade all of the 1-year veterans as they have no future value to the team, but if the team is going through all of this trouble to accommodate Adams, he’s going to cost a lot to get him. In my opinion, that price is going to be a top-50 prospect. That’s a pretty loose term right now so I’m keeping the door open on pre-season vs. mid-season vs. post-season. I’m sneaky like that.

From Yankees: Blake Rutherford, Miguel Andujar, or Dustin Fowler
From Angels: There’s no one in this system.
From Mariners: Kyle Lewis or Tyler O’Neill
From Rangers: Again, for me, it’s Joey Gallo or bust

Call me crazy...I’m used to it!

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Ryan,

Walk-Off Talk 1.4: Finding a Partner (Part 1)

Ryan,

We’re back again for the fourth iteration of this well-received series. By well-received, I mean my kids. They can’t read, but they think Daddy is doing a bang-up job.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

This week, I want to look at finding trading partners for the Braves involving individual teams. I know John Coppolella doesn’t need our help, but just in case he’s procrastinating, here is some legwork for the Braves’ GM ahead of next month’s trading deadline. Last month, you wrote a pair of articles on this subject (here and here) but I want to focus a bit more this week on where we might trade players.

Let’s start with Jaime Garcia. The lefty has been a mixed bag of late. He's K'd a sweet sixteen batters over his last two starts after just striking out 17 over five April starts. On the other hand, runs have been scoring a bit more against him of late with six runs scored by the Marlins last start. Might be time to push the effort to find a trading partner for Garcia into hyperdrive before he regresses much more. Of course, he might throw a no-hitter next time out. Baseball's weird like that.

Garcia has been the closest thing to a stable starter for the Braves this year and losing him could hurt - especially if you want the Braves to hold out hope for a Wild Card slot. But losing him for nothing at the end of the season seems short-sighted and extending his contract also appears short-sighted considering his career to this point. So, who would be a good trading partner for the Braves with Garcia?

• Baltimore - Dylan Bundy has been their most consistent starter and his FIP is 4.63. Only the Reds have a worse starting rotation ERA or FIP than the Orioles, but unlike the Reds, the O's are still very much in the race. Further, the three teams ahead of them (Rays, Red Sox, Yankees) have a combined 22-31 record against left-handed starters.
   
• New York Mets - They can't get healthy in the rotation, but I'm iffy on them getting involved here. While their record is similar to the Braves, people think the Mets are going to be buyers. They might be, but I imagine their front office is going to need to see some improvement between now and the deadline. But even if they get hot, the chances they'll pony up a prospect or two in the division is hard to believe - especially when they aren't even acquiring Kelly Johnson.
   
• Seattle - The Mariners are slumping of late and are expecting both Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma back, but even with them in the picture, they could use some help. James Paxton is their one starter with a sub-4.50 FIP (that included Hernandez and Iwakuma). Atlanta pulled off two trades with Jerry Dipoto last winter. Could a third be in the works?
   
• Texas - Similar to the Mariners, the Rangers' pitching staff has issues. It doesn't help that 3/5's of their planned rotation is on the mend, but with them struggling of late, I could see the Rangers trying to grab some rotation help.

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Tommy,

I’d say I’ve been a bit anxious for the Braves to get on with trading Jaime. His health’s always been iffy and his ERA was low-3s prior to the last outing. Still, it’s mid-3s and there are teams that need that. Add that he’s a lefty and we might actually get a decent piece in exchange for him.

The question I always ask myself when discussing a trade is this: Who will the traded piece be replacing? There are some teams where the answer is quite easy, but others it gets murky and those are the type of hypotheticals I stay away from. Now, let it be known that while it seems like a smart thing to do on the surface, some GMs are desperate and will make moves that give the team surplus then deal with the surplus at a later time. With that being said, here’s what I see.

Not Matches:

• Mets- I don’t think they’ll be calling for Jaime as I don’t think they’re going to make a run this year, but I wouldn’t doubt if they would take Bartolo should Braves pay a chunk of change, meaning nearly all of it. The need to get some positivity back in the clubhouse seems to outweigh the need to win ballgames, and Bartolo outweighs everybody.
   
• Mariners- Tough call on the M’s, but like you stated, with King Felix and Iwakuma coming back soon, and  likely getting Drew Smyly back in late July, I think the M’s roll with what they have for now.

Matches:

• Orioles- As you stated, their pitching is a huge dumpster fire and it doesn’t seem helps coming.
   
• Cubs- While you didn’t talk about the Cubs, they are a  team that I think might be interested in adding Jaime. The reigning World Series champions and their starting pitching, including their big 3, has been pedestrian at best. With the magic of Eddie Butler wearing off, and the Cubs sitting at .500, quality starts are needed NOW!
   
• Rangers- It’s hard to look for rotation help when the top end is Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels. With Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Martin Perez, A.J. Griffin and a few others that can fill out the 3-5 spots, I'd imagine they would be looking for a higher-end talent rather than a middle-of-the-rotation component. That said, there might be a deal here.
   
• Twins- A team that is surprising everyone with a pretty good offense, good defense, decent relief, and absolutely horrid starting pitching. Tasting a bit of success, they might want to find a veteran that can step in and provide some quality innings.

The return? If I’m Coppy, I’m looking for a very specific return. The club’s window for success is vast, but 2018 needs to be a statement. With that in mind, I’m looking for a catcher, 3rd baseman, or even an outfielder to plug in for next year, or in 2019.

Braves Targets from Orioles for Jaime Garcia:

• Austin Hays- 21 year old RHH outfielder putting up great numbers at High-A and should be getting promoted to AA any day now. Has played all 3 OF positions but mostly CF in 2017.
• Cedric Mullins- 22 year old outfielder putting up great numbers at AA. Has also played all OF positions but focusing on CF in 2017. Will likely see AAA soon.
• D.J. Stewart- A former 1st round pick OFer playing at AA. Numbers aren’t as good as Mullins and Hays but has pedigree and could be a buy-low opportunity ala Alex Jackson
• Chance Sisco- A bat first catcher that’s not hitting entirely great at AAA, but has pedigree and dons BA’s, BP’s, and MLB’s top-100 list. 

Braves Targets from Cubs for Jaime Garcia:

• Mark Zagunis- RHH corner outfielder putting up good numbers at AAA, albeit in the PCL. Has power, takes a ton of walks, and plays average defense.
• Jeimer Candelario- Switch hitting third baseman at AAA putting up good numbers with elite defense (also in the PCL). He’s been donned by many MLB scouts and analysts as the guy most in need of a trade.
• Victor Caratini- Switch-hitting catcher putting up gaudy numbers at AAA, but like Zagunis and Candelario, it comes with the PCL warning. Good defensive catcher that can also moonlight as a 1B.

Braves Targets from Twins for Jaime Garcia:

• Nick Gordon or bust. They’re not going to trade him and personally, there’s nothing else out of that system that I’d really care to grab as most of their top guys are pitchers and Braves are bursting with them. Sorry, no way Jaime.

Braves Targets from Rangers for Jaime Garcia:

• Joey Gallo or bust. The Rangers system has thinned out considerably, partly due to dealing with the Braves. Jaime wouldn’t nab Gallo on his own, but Braves could add a piece. With Napoli coming on the last month he’s seemingly blocked at 1B, 3B, and DH through 2018 at least. And since he’s only played 4 innings in outfield, it might be hard to find regular playing time for him. It’s doubtful…but it could happen.

Not counting the Twins or the Rangers because I think those deals are longshots at best, if I had my choice, I’d take Jeimer Candelario first (but it might take an extra piece to acquire him...Sims?).  From there, I’d go Austin Hays then Cedric Mullins.

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Ryan,

Way to rain on my parade. I want another Dipoto/Coppy trade where we send them depth and they give us a top prospect. It’s the new “call Dave Stewart.”

Gallo could be a study in how much the Rangers value the third baseman moving forward and what they might need to deal him. Garcia won't be enough like you said, but it could be the beginning framework of what could turn into a deal.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Moving on, let’s talk about Brandon Phillips. Dat Dude has been dat good with the Braves since finally agreeing on a trade last winter. This week included back-to-back walkoffs and he's been pretty darn hot to boot. His defense has also looked better after declining from 10.4 UZR/150 in 2014 to -2.3 last year. It's sitting at about 3.0 this season. The rest of his stats either show him posting similar stats as 2016 or showing improvement.

The problem is...it's unlikely to continue all season. That's not to say he's trash and I have to condition that because too many Braves fans think reasonable criticism means you're slamming the guy. He's got a good shot at a 2 fWAR season especially if the defense maintains. That's a very good season for Phillips, especially at his age. But in short - he's definitely had his fair share of luck. His BABIP is .338, about forty points over his career average and roughly points higher than his recent two seasons. His batted ball metrics are pretty close to normal so a reasonable expectation is that his numbers fall. Not off the cliff - this isn't a Chris Johnson situation - but similar to Jaime Garcia above, his numbers are a bit unsustainable at his current production.

Phillips lost his 10-5 rights when he was traded to the Braves, but still retains a limited no-trade clause in which he can block a trade to twelve teams. We don't know who those teams might be, but let's hope they aren't contenders this season.

Because Phillips is position-limited, I looked at what teams are getting weak production at second and are in the mix for a playoff spot. The market is really small for Phillips unless a team that may not have a heavy need for him is enamored by the idea of a veteran-savvy bat. Still, I'm going to focus on the teams with a genuine need at second base.

• Angels - No team is getting worse production out of their second basemen. Heading into Monday night's games, Angels' 2B were hitting .180/.255/.286. Mike Scioscia is even more appalled by the fact that they haven't successfully put a bunt down either. Danny Espinosa, who is an enigma has been Bad Danny this season while Cliff Pennington, his primary backup, isn't exactly known for his bat either. There is a desperate need here and the Angels almost make too much sense as a trading partner.
   
• Rays - Tampa Bay is doing their best to compete with the Angels for worst second-base situation. Brad Miller and Daniel Robertson have shared most of the at-bats with next to no production between them. Tampa Bay is quietly good once again with a cast of nobodies. I'm not sure if Phillips would want to play down there in that empty abyss they call a ballpark, but like the Angels, the Rays are exactly what the Braves will be looking for in a possible new home for Dat Dude. And not for nothing, but with the Reds picking up much of the tab for Phillips, the always budget-conscious Rays can easily fit him into their picture.
   
• Rangers - I mentioned them for Garcia and you poopoo'd all over the idea until you got interested in Gallo. You mentioned a possible bigger trade with more pieces. How about Phillips? The Angels are the only team in baseball with a worse OBP from their second basemen than the Rangers. Texas might be hesitant to pull the trigger here with Rougned Odor very much entrenched as the everyday second basemen, but with the team-wide issues the Rangers have at the plate, Phillips could make an appealing target.

What do you think? Is there a good trade here or will the Braves be better off keeping Phillips in the mix?

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Like you stated, this trade could be very difficult factoring in his limited no-trade clause, being limited to 1 position, and that there aren’t many contending teams that have a need for 2b. Also, factor in the part where Brandon would be a full-time problem if he was asked to be a part-time player, and it gets really limited. But he’s practically owed nothing and he’s been great for this club so I’m sure there’s someone out there that could benefit from him, but that creates difficulty as well: the Braves are not going to give him away.  An acquiring team will have to overpay for him.

I agree that the Rangers, Angels, and Rays are getting poor production from their 2nd basemen, but I don’t think the Rangers are in this conversation. Just like when Elvis Andrus struggled a few years back, they just made a big investment in Odor and they’re going to have to give him ABs, and they’re already having a hard time finding ABs for their DH types. Scratch them off the list.

So you’ve covered Angels and Rays, but here are a few others I think could be looking for a 2B upgrade:

• Blue Jays- Horrible production from their 2-baggers and need desperately to start winning ballgames as their window is closing quickly with a cast of aging veterans.
   
• Cubs?- I put a ? behind them because Maddon is so creative finding playing time for guys. Yes, Brandon is limited to 2B, but Ian Happ, Javier Baez, and Ben Zobrist have flexibility all over the field. It’s a long shot, but if Cubs were to go after Jaime Garcia, Brandon Phillips could be the extra piece to net a very nice prospect in return.

Pre-cursor: Because BP is only under control for this year and the fact that his market isn’t all that large, he’s not going to bring back an elite prospect so I think a B/B- prospect will be the ceiling return.

Braves Targets from Rays for Brandon Phillips:

• Ryne Stanek- A flamethrower relief pitcher that tops out at triple digits but has had control issues. 
• Garrett Whitley- OF, 1st round pick in 2015 that hasn’t lived up to expectations. Has serious speed and hidden pop. 

Braves Targets from Angels for Brandon Phillips

• Taylor Ward- C that’s not very exciting but comes with some pedigree. Trying to find a real prospect in the Angels farm system is like trying to find a good Cardinals fan.
• Andrew Heaney- Not a prospect but could be a buy-low guy since he’s recovering from Tommy John. I’ve really liked him in the past and he still has 4 years of control.

Braves Targets from Blue Jays for Brandon Phillips

• Max Pentecost- C/1B/DH that I’ve been a fan of for quite a while, but man oh man this kid’s been hit with bad luck. Shoulder problems have really limited his time behind the plate and it’s not clear if he’ll ever be a full-time catcher again. Still, he’s a buy-low guy that could pay huge dividends or nothing at all.
• Anthony Alford- OFer that had an awful MLB debut after being called straight up from AA.  Very toolsy and was in the middle of a breakout season in the minors.

Braves Targets from Cubs for Brandon Phillips

• *Jeimer Candelario- He was discussed above, and I’d be willing to bet if BP were to go to the Cubs, it’d be in a package deal with Jaime Garcia and maybe even a reliever. In a trade to the Cubs, look for BP to be the cherry on top that lands a good prospect.

What do you think? Who might be a good trading partner for the Braves if they deal Garcia or Phillips? Or are you just tired of trades? Let us know in the comment section.

Braves Front Office Could Use Crash-Course in BABIP

(Ryan Cothran has joined the Walk-Off Walk team and I want to thank him for his contributions - both with this article and in the future. Be sure to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

It was a few days back when I dropped a tweet and, for a lack of a better term, received what seemed at the time, some scorn from someone I respect quite a bit.

First off, let’s get this out of the way.  Alan and I are former colleagues, respect each other, and message quite often about Braves news and such. He’s a big part of why I still want to write Braves material.  Furthermore, it turns out that Alan and I agree on many points regarding BABIP. His rant made quite a lot of sense and I suggest reading it over at Tomahawk Take to educate oneself on the matter.

One thing Alan and I might not agree on in regards to BABIP is that it’s a valuable statistic that the Braves have overlooked for YEARS and has caused many a headache for both fans and GMs alike.

What is BABIP? I’m glad you asked, and it’s quite simple really.  From Fangraphs:

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball is “in play” when the plate appearance ends in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher's interference, sacrifice bunt, or home run.

Important Piece of BABIP: The basic MLB average of BABIP is .290-.300, but it's more complicated than that as players that use all parts of the field, top-tier speed guys, or even guys with a high hard contact rate can defy BABIP on a regular basis. On the contrary, heavy LHH pull-power hitters such as Brian McCann and Anthony Rizzo will carry BABIPs below the norm pretty regularly due to their hard contact being hit into the teeth of a shift and due to HRs not factored into BABIP. Now let's get back to the lecture at hand.

Chris Johnson, Jose Constanza, Jeff Francoeur, Emilio Bonifacio, Danny Santana, Chase d’Arnaud, and Pedro Ciriaco...some of these guys stories are quite different, some seem like clones, but all have a common denominator that’s earned them quite a chunk of change (over 30 million dollars collectively, but more importantly, roster spots over better players) from the Braves: a BABIP fluke.

To start this study off, we will take a look at Chris Johnson, who makes up most of the money in this study and his extension is one of the most notorious in Braves history. In this exercise, we will evaluate Chris Johnson and his 2012 without the Braves and his next 2 years with the Braves.

First, we all knew that CJ was a sub-optimal defender at 3rd and that any value he held was going to be held in his bat, but let's get the baseball cliches out of the way on CJ: He's a good line-drive hitter that uses all parts of the field and keeps fielders honest. He's also slow as molasses and needs this skill to stay relevant in baseball.

Now let's look at the juicy details from Fangraphs. Hard contact rate is being used extensively in baseball at this point and exit velocity is being shoved down our throats as the stat du jour. Here's CJ's results on his contact rates '12-'14.

2012: soft contact (14.4%) medium contact (54.8%) hard contact (30.7%)

2013: soft contact (14.0%) medium contact (56.0%) hard contact (30.0%)

2014: soft contact (14.5%) medium contact (59.0%) hard contact (26.5%)

Conclusion: '12 & '13 nearly identical in contact with '14 showing a drop in hard contact. Now, let's take a look at CJ's fWAR and BABIP each year:

2012: BABIP (.354) fWAR(1.0) 

2013: BABIP (.394) fWAR(2.5)

2014: BABIP (.345) fWAR(0.2)

In dissecting CJ, he was pretty doggone good at making the most out of his skill-set as his career BABIP is .353. This makes him an outlier for the BABIP stat, but his 2013 is an anomaly of an outlier. Unfortunately for the Braves, he was extended after his career year for 23.5 million and has had negative $ value since.

For Chris, the BABIP fluke was the gift that kept on giving for years and has set his family up for the long haul. For others, it’s extended their careers and unfortunately, it was mostly in a Braves uniform.

OOPS!  Your HIGH BABIPs went MISSING!

By Sgt. Anthony Hewitt [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

1. Jeff Francoeur received years of undeserved playing time from the Braves riding on the coat-tail of his hot start that was highly aided by a .452 BABIP his first month in the bigs. Braves weren’t the only ones that were fooled as he quickly donned the cover of Sports Illustrated, was deemed “The Natural,” and the question was posed, “Can anyone be this good?” The simple answer is Frenchy couldn’t.  His ‘07 year was quite good, but ‘08 through half of 2010 were absolute disasters. It took 2.5 straight years of well-below average production before Braves front office pulled the plug and traded him to the Muts for Ryan Church.

2. Jose Constanza was given starts over Jason Heyward due to his hot start that was seriously aided by a .403 BABIP his first 24 games. The Constanza love affair lasted 4 years and he collected .1 fWAR the rest of his Braves career after that hot start.

3. Pedro Ciriaco’s first 60 plate appearances were quite good as he posted a .768 OPS as a fill-in around the diamond and pinch hitter. The problem was that it was aided by a .375 BABIP and his production fell off a cliff after that, yet he still racked up plate appearances...91 of them with a putrid .535 OPS.

4. Chase d'Arnaud was given 170+ more plate appearances in 2016 due to the fluke that was 92 plate appearances of an .855 OPS seriously aided by a.426 BABIP. His last 170 PAs... .526 OPS.

5. If Emilio Bonifacio hadn't had a fluky .372 BABIP in his 3.0 fWAR career year with the Marlins (now has 3 consecutive years of -fWAR), would he still be a Major Leaguer wearing a Braves uniform? I know my answer...

6. If Danny Santana hadn’t had a fluky .405 BABIP in his 3.2 fWAR career year with the Indians (been worth -2 fWAR since), would he still be a Major Leaguer wearing a Braves uniform? I know my answer…

Current BABIP numbers for Braves players vs. career BABIP

Ender Inciarte: career: .320 current: .276

Conclusion: Ender’s career is young, but he’s fast and could benefit from his legs by some bunt hits. I’d expect an upturn in his BABIP, but wouldn’t expect the power he’s shown to continue. Therefore a mid-.700s OPS is a good bet.

Brandon Phillips: career: .296 current: .322

Conclusion: BP’s career numbers speaks more volume than his current BABIP.  I expect him to stay in the .700ish OPS range.

Freddie Freeman: career: .342 current: .347

Conclusion: I wouldn’t expect FF5 to keep up his current HR pace, but make no mistake I could see him keeping up his current BABIP numbers (or even surpass them) due to his hard contact rate.

Matt Kemp: career: .342 current: .381

Conclusion: Kemp has had one year where his BABIP sustained a .380 mark for the year and that was his MVP year. To think he can duplicate that doesn’t seem like a smart wager, but he’s carried a high BABIP for his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if the friendly confines of Suntrust Park aids his BABIP to keep it north of .350.

Nick Markakis: career: .317 current: .368 Conclusion: Nick’s power stroke hasn’t shown up yet, but he’s squaring up balls on the regular. I’d expect the BABIP to drop down into the .330s but come close to maintaining his overall slash-line.

Adonis Garcia: career:.294 current: .243

Conclusion: Adonis is getting a bit unlucky. His numbers should increase but hopefully it’s on the bench.,

Tyler Flowers: career: .329 current:.478 

Conclusion: T-Flow has been a tireless worker on his swing the past 2 years and has drunk himself full of Kevin Seitzer’s approach. His swing looks so short and structured right now that the ability to outperform a league average BABIP is a near given. With that in mind, there’s simply no way his current .478 BABIP is sustainable, however, I wouldn’t doubt that in a career year, T-Flow could push .400.  Expect his current BABIP to regress but still be well above league average.

Dansby Swanson: career: .301 current: .203

Conclusion: Dansby’s career is young and his contact hasn’t been great, but nothing is falling for him. His BABIP will improve and Braves fans will rejoice.

Kurt Suzuki: career: .273 current: .222

Conclusion: Suzuki is not a good hitter and hasn’t been for his career. However, he’s been unlucky and numbers should improve a bit.

Emilio Bonifacio: career: .328 current: .263

Conclusion: His BABIP will get better, but it’s not going to help him be a player worthy of a roster spot.

Danny Santana: career: .342 current: .211

Conclusion: Santana has speed and could be a decent bench piece were he not sitting alongside Bonifacio who is a future him. His numbers will get better but it’s not going to help the Braves bench as long as there are 2 of him.

Jace Peterson: career: .291 current: .300

Conclusion: It’s tough to watch Jace right now as I’ve long been a fan of his skillset, but his power just hasn’t developed and his hard contact is low. He could boost his BABIP by adding bunt hits, but hasn’t done that often yet. He likely sits as a mid-600s OPS guy with the ability to push it up in the .700s against RHP.

Final BABIP Cautionary Tale

There has never... in the history of baseball, been a player to collect a .400 BABIP when recording more than 1,000 plate appearances in a career. There are 4 guys in MLB that are currently in the top-20 for career BABIP (minimum 1,000 PAs). Those are:

Odubel Herrera (11th at .362)

Mike Trout (12th at .361)  

Christian Yelich (15th at .359)

Starling Marte (19th at 358). 

In my opinion, only 1 will remain from these 4 and we all know who that is...

Thanks for reading my first piece over at Walkoff Walk! And thanks to Tommy for allowing me to join him! I’ve long admired his work and consider it an honor to write alongside him.  Go Braves

Braves Acquire Danny Santana Among Monday's Moves

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

It was an off night for the Braves, but they still were busy with a trade, a player optioned, and a player released. Let's look at each of these moves.

First, the Braves traded Kevin Chapman and some cash to the Minnesota Twins for Danny Santana. I was never enamored with Chapman after the Braves acquired him late in spring training. He was "just an arm" who the Braves took a chance on because he was left-handed. He had a bad ERA in Gwinnett, but a good FIP/xFIP. Despite that, he was heading nowhere and is unlikely to be anything more than Quad-A depth for the Twins.

So, let's look at Santana. A switch-hitter, Santana burst on the scene in 2014 with a strong .319/.353/.472 slash that included a 3.2 fWAR. Santana also added 20 steals in 24 opportunities. He split time between shortstop and center field and wasn't particularly gifted at either. Still, when you come out of the minors with just a couple dozen games above Double-A and post a .362 wOBA and 132 wRC+, people will take notice.

The problem was...he wasn't that good. That's not a slight, it's just a fact. Remember Chris Johnson's big 2013 when he became the BABIP God? He received that moniker because he had an unsustainable .394 BABIP. Santana was a similar case in that his BABIP was .405 in 2014. He swung at everything and despite average contact rates, the balls kept finding holes. Santana was never this kind of prospect in the minors with a wOBA personal-best of .338.

Predictably, Santana fell flat the following year. He would bat an abysmal .215/.241/.291 with a negative fWAR. I wish I could say he rebounded in 2016, but he continued to disappoint. He also missed significant time with a strained right hamstring, a strained left hamstring, and finally a left-shoulder sprain that ended his season. So far this season, Santana was posting a .255 wOBA in 26 PA as he struggled to find much playing time.

How does Santana fit in for the Braves, who immediately added him to the active roster for tomorrow's game? That's a fair question. Santana is not a big bat who will give the Braves much of a lift, nor become an obvious choice to DH in upcoming games in AL parks. He is essentially a younger Emilio Bonifacio at this point. He plays all of the positions on the infield except first base and can play all three outfield positions. He's not great at any of these, mind you. His shortstop numbers are especially bad.

For a team that needed a bat or two for the bench, Santana is just not that guy. He carries a 3.9% career walk rate, which is not much better in the minors, along with a 23.3% strikeout rate. His ZiPS projection for the rest of the season looks like .259/.290/.375 - which might be a bit too optimistic. Now, certainly, there is a chance he catches fire and has a nice little run, but it seems optimistic to believe that's possible.  Santana, who was designated for assignment by the Twins when the Braves traded for him, is out of options.

To make room for Santana, Lane Adams was optioned. Adams was already one of the Braves' top pinch hitters after going 2-for-8 in the role and he had already added a pair of steals. Overall, he was 3-for-9 (all singles) during his brief run in the majors. He was on fire before being called up, slashing .333/.352/.588 with Gwinnett.

Honestly, folks, I'm not getting this move. Is Santana better than Bonifacio? Sure. I'll go with this hot take - he's a better Bonifacio. That's fine for the 25th guy on the team, but now the Braves are getting multiple Bonifacios. Was Adams the answer? Probably not, but at least he had been recently successful. While the Braves didn't lose much of anything by trading Kevin Chapman, I don't believe they gained much either. Perhaps this deal is a precursor to another move or two. At least, I hope it is.

Finally, the Gwinnett Braves welcome Lane Adams back, but say goodbye to Ryan Howard. The Braves and Howard gave it a shot, but Howard looked lost against Triple-A pitching. In eleven games, the former Subway spokesman had just seven hits, all singles except for one homer. He hit .184 with two walks and eleven K's. He also played just one game in the field. All in all, it wasn't working. This could be the end of the line for Howard or he might try to make it work somewhere else. I liked this signing when it happening, but it clearly wasn't working.

Ender Inciarte Makes Atlanta his Long-Term Home

Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop) (CC 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Two days before Christmas, Ender Inciarte received a nice Christmas present. Or, maybe it was the other way around? Maybe Mom was right when she told me that giving a gift was a present in its own right.

The Braves and their new center fielder agreed upon a five-year contract worth at least $30.525 million. A sixth season option would increase the overall value of the deal to $38.5 million. Inciarte was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and as a Super 2 player, he would have been arbitration-eligible for three more years. In essence, the Braves bought out at least one of his free agent years and if they exercise his option, they will have the defensive wonder through his Age-31 season.

While this contract cannot possibly be reasonably argued against, there are questions about Inciarte that remain valid despite a solid first year in Atlanta. Notably, he lacks any real defining skill offensively. While this is completely true, Inciarte makes the most of his skillset and has shown improvement as he's matured into a more seasoned veteran. Last year, he increased his walk rate 3% upon the previous year. He improved his contact rate while doing it, which meant he simply swung the bat less - a sign of a better eye. He lowered his groundball rate and increased his line drive percentage. That leads to more hits.

However, no matter what Inciarte does at the plate, in a good year, he'll merely rise to above average with the bat when league and park factors are weighed. What earned him a contract was his superb base running and defense. First, let's go over the base running because his defense is already well renowned.

Base running is one of those things that can be difficult to quantify and even harder to know how to quantify. Our old method was limited to stolen base numbers. If Player A was successful in, say, 80% of his stolen base attempts, he was a good base runner. However, now, we can better judge base running through metrics like BsR and some of the other numbers we can find at Baseball-Reference.

For instance, B-R keeps track of how many times a runner took the extra base. In his two years with the Diamondbacks, Inciarte advanced an extra base 29% and 40% of the time. The latter is roughly the major league average. In his first season with the Braves, 52% of the time, he took an extra base by going to first-to-third on a single or first-to-home on a double. While not in the same company as some of the elite speedsters and base runners in the game, it was a solid improvement for Inciarte. He was also successful in 70% of his stolen base attempts, which is close to league average.

Fangraphs paints an even rosier picture of Inciarte's base running prowess. With a 4.3 grade, Inciarte finished 2016 as the 21st best base runner in baseball. When you take into account the last two seasons, Inciarte moves up a bit to 16th best with a 7.6 overall grade. To put that into perspective for Braves fans, one guy we loved to watch on the base paths was Jason Heyward. Over the last two years, Heyward has a grade of 9.0 - ninth in baseball.

When it comes to defense, Inciarte is one of the five-best center fielders in baseball and you might be able to lower that number to three or four-best. Unfortunately, because he played a lot of left and right with the D'Backs, he doesn't rank very highly when you judge multiple seasons in regards to center fielder numbers. However, in the context of 2016, there is Kevin Pillar, Billy Hamilton, Inciarte, and a little bit of space before Jackie Bradley Jr. While he did play some left field and missed time with an injury, Inciarte still finished third in UZR/150, tied for second in rPM (Plus Minus Runs Saved), fourth in rARM (Outfield Arm Runs Saved), and third in DRS. Inside Edge ranks him a bit below Pillar and Hamilton as far as range goes and he doesn't make many remote or unlikely players, but Inciarte is as good as it gets when it comes to borderline, likely, and almost certain plays.

Here is a couple of things to keep in mind. What does Inciarte's contract extension mean for Mallex Smith? Probably not good things. To play both Inciarte and Smith, the Braves would be committing to two positions with very little pop. Remember that Ozzie Albies, the presumptive long-term option at second base, also lacks very much power. That would mean that on any given day, nearly half of the lineup (once you add the pitcher) would be full of guys who may never reach double figure homerun totals. On the flipside, with a fairly team-friendly contract, Inciarte becomes an even better trade asset. Teams will already be able to know how much Inciarte will be paid through what we can assume is the prime of his career. One could also suggest that the Braves do not grade Smith as highly as many fans do and think of him more as a fourth outfielder/platoon option than a full-time guy.

No matter how this plays out, this contract means two things to me. One, the John Hart-led contract extension frenzy of 2013-14 might be back on. During that offseason, the Braves signed Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, Chris Johnson, and Craig Kimbrel to long-term extensions. The latter two would be later dismissed, but Teheran and Freeman have blossomed into cornerstones. While Inciarte was the obvious choice for a contract extension this offseason, could we be that far away from considering Dansby Swanson a candidate for a contract extension? If Mike Foltynewicz or Matt Wisler take a monster step forward in 2017, could they be in line for an extension? Hart kept the young nucleus of the Indians together this way once before.

Second, this contract makes the Shelby Miller deal last winter look even better. While I have my concerns about Aaron Blair, the Braves have team control of Inciarte and Swanson through the 2022 season. If Blair figures it out, even better. Miller, along with Tyrell Jenkins, were once the early foundation of a future Braves winner. They were since turned into an even better foundation for a future Braves winner that has already developed into a pair of new franchise cornerstones to go with Teheran and Freeman.

All in all, I didn't expect a contract extension this winter, but I'm glad to see it. Inciarte is a great player to have around at a premium position. You just don't find 3+ fWAR guys on five year deals worth a shade more than $30 million anymore.

Braves Need to Consider Dumping Markakis

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I despise the label "professional hitter." Aren't they all? Even Julio Teheran is a professional hitter since he gets paid to do it. And even if you roll your eyes at taking the literal meaning of the phrase, it's an entirely misapplied and pointless phrase that is often handed out as a consolation prize.

One Brave who receives the phrase is Nick Markakis. He is a career .290 hitter so I guess it's not the worst example. Nevertheless, even if Markakis is a "professional hitter" on a team that struggles to hit, the Braves ought to seek out a team that needs more "non-amateur batters." If Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo is to be believed, the Royals and Phillies might be interested. If they are, the Braves should be doing whatever they can to trade the right-fielder there.

It's not that Markakis is terrible. Granted, his fWAR has traveled south of zero this season, but he's a better hitter than he has shown so far and when he gets going on a hot streak, he'll have that WAR back over one in no time. The problem is that it won't go much higher. The other problem is the same problem that has been attached to Markakis since he signed with the Braves. Does he really even fit what this team is trying to do?

This is the right-fielder's Age-32 year. The smart money says that we have seen the best of Markakis already and can only expect a decline or stagnation if we are lucky. Markakis, for his part, has added some of the best walk rates of his career to supplement the lost power, but can the Braves expect more than they got last season (.296/.370/.376)? And let's be honest - Markakis didn't sign here with the expectation that the Braves would go belly-up and not even put together a competent ballclub. When he came to the Braves, they still had Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Andrelton Simmons, and had just added Shelby Miller. Sure, there were holes, but Markakis was a better match for that team. He's a complimentary player after all. He can help a team not have a weakness where he plays, but he won't do much more.

Let's not forget that this is Year 2 of a 4-year contract that runs through 2018. The Braves should be better in 2017, though it's unlikely they put it all together in one year to go from league laughingstock-to-contenders. 2018 is a much more reasonable expectation, though even it requires some of these young players to "get it" pretty quickly. It took the Royals' young nucleus time to start producing up to expectations after all. Markakis will be around for *maybe* one good year for the Braves and by that time, he'll be 34. He's a nice role model for the youngsters and a hard worker who can show the ropes to the kids, but so is Kelly Johnson or any number of veterans that have been around for awhile in the majors. Those type of players typically get one-year pacts for $2-$5 million, not 4-year, $44M.

Markakis might be a fit for a team trying to win right now. I say "might" because if I'm that team, he's not a target for me. Still, Markakis might make sense for a young team under the leadership of a traditional mindset of grabbing a #2 hitter with excellent bat control. Markakis is a constant. What you get might not excite you much, but he gives a team some leeway. He won't embarrass you in right field, though his range makes him a better fit for left. His power is non-existent partly because he doesn't pull the ball anymore, but he'll likely post a good average with a strong on-base. Those qualities fit a team with a hole, not a team looking for a difference maker. They certainly don't fit a rebuilding team.

If Atlanta receives an offer for Markakis, they ought to seriously consider it. If the other team will take on all of the remaining salary with no added salary beyond this year coming back for the Braves, done deal. If the Braves have to cover some salary, a prospect exchange can be considered. Either way, Markakis is not Chris Johnson or Melvin Upton Jr., two salary dumps by the Braves over the last 14 months. Markakis is still useful for one thing. If there is a team out there entertaining the thought of adding Markakis, Atlanta better be ready to pounce. Markakis makes a terrible Braves team a tiny bit better in 2016 and could help improving Braves' ballclubs in 2017 and 2018 be a wee bit better as well. However, consider how much better the Braves could be if they re-purpose the $21M remaining on Markakis' deal after this season.

Trading Markakis makes a bad team likely worse in 2016, but does that really matter? The Braves would have to go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way to finish 81-81. While they did that, they would sacrifice at least a dozen spots in the 2017 draft and still have an aging and replacement-level right fielder. They might not be any better at all with Markakis (they haven't set the world on fire with him after all) so it might be a moot point, but they could be better in 2017 and 2018 and have added payroll flexibility.

Signing Markakis in the winter of 2014-15 didn't make a lot of sense then. Keeping him if other teams want him now? That makes zero sense. If another team sees a better fit, make it happen, John Coppolella.