Reviewing My 2015 Top 30 Prospects (Part 1 of 3)

Recently, I released the first ten players who made this year's Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects. Of course, the Braves followed by adding two more prospects to the mix, but I forgive them. As I originally said about my prospect list, releasing these lists is a mix of talent, results, and hope. The hope comes in big when you look back at a list in a few years. Projection is one thing, but can they take the next step?

With that in mind, I thought it might be fun to look back at a prospect list. In 2015, I released a Top 30 in a similar ten prospects at a time method that I am doing this year. Let's take a look at the 2015's #21-30 prospects as graded and ranked by yours truly. Hope I did well.

30. Victor Reyes, OF, Grade: C....One of the last big international splurges for the Frank Wren era, Reyes is a switch-hitter who would be traded less than a month after I released the list to the Diamondbacks. In exchange, the Braves took on most of Trevor Cahill's salary. They also received the #75th overall pick of the 2015 draft, which was used to draft talented lefty A.J. Minter. Reyes has been productive since the trade, hitting a comebined .307 over the last two years. However, the power projections have yet to happen for the 22 year-old, who had a .113 ISO in the hitter-friendly California League last year. Still, not a bad start to the list.

29. Wes Parsons, P, Grade: C....At the time, others ranked Parsons higher than me. He was coming off a 23-start campaign with Lynchburg in which he struggled with a 5.02 ERA. None of us, however, could foresee the troubles Parsons would have the next two years due to injuries, which have limited him to 86.1 innings. Parsons still made my 2016 Top 50, but didn't make this year's list as he tries to jumpstart his career this spring.

28. Max Povse, P, Grade: C....In March of 2015, I called Povse "a sleeper in this system" and said "I like his chances a lot." Well, he turned into that sleeper with back-to-back productive seasons where he displayed great control, a tendency to induce many groundballs, and the ability to be a workhorse. In November, he was dealt to the Mariners in the Alex Jackson deal.

27. Shae Simmons, P, Grade: C....When I ranked him in March of 2015, he had just been given the news that he was destined for Tommy John surgery. It took him well over a year to get back to the Braves. Recently, he was sent packing to the Mariners to join Povse.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

26. Williams Perez, P, Grade: C....The Braves liked Perez probably more than they should have. Surprisingly kept over a bigger prospect like J.R. Graham, Perez was a groundball artist who relied on location. In Atlanta, the location was often not as spot-on as it had to be. A month ago, he was released on the final day of the winter meetings so the Braves could open up a 40-man roster spot and draft Armando Rivero in the Rule 5 draft. He's been on the market ever since.

25. Tanner Murphy, C, Grade: C....At the time, Murphy was receiving some high marks for his defense and on-base skills. I was quickly a fan, but his bat has become an even bigger liability and his defense has received some poor reports since 2014. Like Parsons, Murphy made my Top 50 last year, but fell off this year.

24. Dilmer Mejia, P, Grade: C....Before the Braves began to acquire every left-handed pitching prospect on the planet, Mejia was a hyped teenager in rookie ball who looked like he might be a force to reckon with. Injuries have sapped some of the hype, but he still made my list this year at #48 and I believe he can once again surprise some people.

23. Cody Martin, P, Grade: C....A 7th rounder out of Gonzaga in 2011, Martin was a veterab of over 200 innings at the Triple-A level heading into 2015. The numbers were there, but the projections weren't. He would pitch in 21 games out of the Braves' bullpen in 2015, but was prone to gopher balls. In July, the Braves sent him to the A's for some international slots so that they could sign their prospects. Since then, he has spent most of his time in the Pacific Coast League with 34.2 innings in the bigs, spent mostly with the Mariners after Oakland waives him.

22. Andrew Thurman, P, Grade: C....Acquired in the Evan Gattis trade, Thurman got off to a wonderful start with Carolina in 2015. However, his season and his team's season would be marred by a bus crash. Thurman never seemed the same after that. Thurman's woeful pitching in 2016 removed any prospect luster from him and he was released last August. He has since signed with the Dodgers and will try to revive his career out west.

21. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C+....A plus defender, Camargo has made prospect lists based solely on his skill in the field. The switch-hitter continues to struggle to hit, though. With a career ISO under .100 and a .304 OBP at Mississippi last year, Camargo is a longshot to become a fixture in the majors. However, the Braves do like him and added him to the 40-man roster this winter.

Of the first ten prospects released for the 2015 Top 30, six are no longer in the organization. Of those remaining four, only one made my Top 50 this season. That's both a testament to the system's depth and the struggles prospects have had since the original ranking.

Braves Wheel and Deal on Final Day of Winter Meetings

The final day of the Winter Meetings saw plenty of players leaving and even some coming to Atlanta. Let's recap the moves.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Atlanta Braves release Williams Perez

The day got started with the news that the Braves were cutting Perez to open up a spot on their 40-man roster that would soon be used for a Rule 5 selection. Perez, a right-handed groundball machine, had came on the scene with a breakout 2015 in which he maintained a 2.91 ERA and 3.29 FIP at Double-A Mississippi. He never was a strikeout pitcher, but showed great command of the strikezone and a penchant for getting batters to smack the ball into the ground for easy outs.

Over the last two seasons, he has appeared 34 times in the majors with all but three as a starter. What we find out was about what we thought we knew when he was coming up. While capable of getting grounders, Williams lacked stuff and in the major leagues, it's almost impossible to get by as a right-handed soft tosser without having a weapon resembling a plus pitch to choose from. Just to add on, of all total pitches that Williams threw, a criminally low 5.9% became swinging strikes. The average is about 10%. Hitters bashed him and he wore his 4.85 FIP/4.75 xFIP deservingly. He's not bad Quad-A depth, but his ceiling was just too low for the Braves to keep him when they could re-purpose that roster spot on a higher ceiling option.

The Atlanta Braves select RHP Armando Rivero from the Chicago Cubs

Last week, I reviewed eight players I liked coming into the Rule 5 Draft. Only two were selected and the Braves' option wasn't on my radar. That said, I'm blogging in my boxers and they have a wealth of scouting reports so I'm confident they made a better selection than me. Rivero was a big signing by the Chicago Cubs in 2013 out of Cuba. Expected to be a quick riser through the minor leagues, Rivero has been on the cusp of the majors in each of the last two seasons. Overall, his minor league numbers are pretty studly with 303 K's in 220 ING (12.4 K/9). He can battle control issues and gives up a few too many homers. Unlike many Rule 5 picks, Rivero is up there in age and will turn 29 on the first day of February.

Rivero has mixed reports on his fastball velocity ranging from low 90's to the mid-90's. His best pitch when he was a star reliever in Cuba was his cutter. He also has a breaking ball that, had he been able to develop it into a plus pitch, might have pushed the Cubs to try him as a starter. That said, I've read that the pitch (which some call a curve while others say is a slider) can be a strikeout pitch, but lacks consistency. The bullpen is shaping up to have a lot of competition, but Rivero's Rule 5 status might help him claim a spot if not outshined by other options.

For more on Rivero - especially his defection from Cuba - read this article from last July from The Des Moines Register. New Braves minor leaguer David Freitas also has a quote in the article and I highly recommend it.

Minor League Portion of Rule 5 Draft Review

And then, there was the minor league portion of the Rule 5. While the Braves didn't lose a player in the major league portion while adding Rivero, they lost three guys in the minor league section along with gaining one. These players do not have to be offered back to their previous team if not kept in Triple-A.

The Braves selected Cesilio Pimentel from the Pirates in the First Round as they continue to absolutely crush the name competition. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, the lefty made his professional debut in 2011 and has slowly climbed the ladder since then. Last year, at 23, he pitched for West Virginia in the Sally League mostly in long relief. He's continued to show good control and adequate strikeout numbers, but really needs to be challenged at some point as he was just too old for the South Atlantic League. While he'll go to the Triple-A roster, my bet is that he'll start next season in Double-A.

The Second Round saw the Braves lose two players before a third went in the next and last round. First, left-hander Brian Moran went to the Orioles. He's been around for awhile now since the Mariners selected him out of UNC-Chapel Hill in 2009. He's also a veteran of the Rule 5 pick as he was picked in 2013 by the Angels, but missed the season with Tommy John surgery and was ultimately returned to the Mariners. He would pitch one more season with the M's before being selected last year as a minor league Rule 5 pick by the Indians. He was released at the end of spring training and played some in independent ball before the Braves added him last August for the stretch run with Gwinnett. He has good career numbers, but they don't really stand out, either.

Three picks later, the Rangers picked Zachary Bird. The righty had been acquired along with *gulp* Hector Olivera in 2015 from the Dodgers. He was praised for his athleticism and reports were thathe had a big arm that and some high-celing potential. However, last year, he looked completely lost in the Carolina League. Despite that, there was some rumblings that Bird might be selected in the major league portion if the Braves didn't protect him. That was probably due to the fact that his Dodgers pre-trade hype is still attached to him according to MLB Pipeline as very few - if any - experts had Bird as a Top 30 prospect for the Braves outside MLB's official prospect guys. Bird has a shot to be something for the Rangers, but not shocked the Braves didn't try to protect him.

The final selection of the day came with Texas again raided the Braves' system for righty Fernando Miranda. In 2015, he made a cameo in my Random Prospect Sunday series. He spent last season on loan to the Mexican League where he had decent K numbers, but not a lot else. Miranda had only pitched 78 innings over three seasons before 2016 in the Braves' system. This sentence might sum on the choice of Miranda - you didn't know the Braves had him and there was good reason for that.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Braves Trade Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl, Take Chance on Luke Jackson

This is one of those trades where all you can say is "Uh, alright."

It wasn't hard to like Jenkins. He had an engaging personality on social media, was one of the first real young pieces the Braves acquired after axing Frank Wren, and had posted some pretty decent numbers over two years. The problem with Jenkins was pretty simple. While the Braves were able to squeeze the two healthiest seasons of his career, his metrics never climbed out of the "Meh" range. His K/9 fell under 6 an inning, his control never wavered far from 4 walks per nine, and while he always induced a lot of grounders, his stats never seemed to match the hype.

Like Zach Bird, Jenkins is an athletic righty who needed refinement. So much so that last year, the Braves pushed Jenkins to the pen. But whereas Bird headed south this season, Jenkins did enough to earn a callup to the majors. He walked more batters than he struck out and like a player the Braves cut earlier that day, Williams Perez, Jenkins couldn't get hitters to swing-and-miss. Since Jenkins has never displayed excellent control, that led to major league hitters elevating his pitches and sending them to the bleachers for souvenirs way too often.

That's not to say that Jenkins is a lost cause. Only that he had plateaued and was not improving. With better prospects reaching Triple-A or knocking on the door, Jenkins was expendable.

Feigl was a fun story during the 2015 spring training as a non-drafted free agent who Gene Karns, who had found Brandon Beachy, signed. Feigl pitched well in 2014 and with no lefties stepping forward in the spring of 2015, Feigl was beginning to look like a possibility to break camp in the majors before being a late cut. Soon after, he complained of soreness and later would need Tommy John. He missed almost all of the last two seasons before a late return to three rehab games in the Gulf Coast League last summer. I had big hopes for Feigl before his injury and for more on his strange path to nearly making the Braves in 2015, read this article.

As for the guy the Braves got, Luke Jackson heads to Atlanta. Selected five picks before Jenkins in the 2010 draft, Jackson has shown some strikeout ability in the minors that only got better after his 2015 move to the bullpen. It's the rest of his game that the Braves coaches will look to refine. His delivery occasionally comes out of whack, his breaking pitches aren't always thrown for strikes, and he can be a bit homer prone despite a real weapon in his fastball.

Much like how Jenkins had plateaued as a Braves prospect, it appears that Jackson has reached a level where he's just not getting any better pitching for the Rangers' organization. The Braves will work with him on getting his breaking pitch(es?) thrown for strikes and more consistency on the mound, which should make him better able to handle the strikezone. Jackson is armed with a 95-97 mph fastball that will buy him long looks with the Braves.

This deal can be summed up in one word: Ceiling. As we saw with the Alex Jackson trade (and many others before that), the Braves have no problem with dealing quantity for the highest ceiling in the trade. With 94-95 mph heat, electric stuff, and developing secondary options, Jackson represented the best bet to be more than just a bit player in the majors of the three players involved in this trade. Now, he has to prove it. Luckily for him, the Braves are building a who's who of pitching instructors and coaches.

I understand why some fans hated this trade. Part of that was overvaluing Jenkins, part of it was the underwhelming return. This trade needs time to allow the pieces to develop and mature before judging. That said, I like this aggressive front office that values ceiling over floor. This trade only reinforces that.

2016 Player Reviews: Williams Perez, Jace Peterson, A.J. Pierzynski

The World Series is over and free agency is just about to hit in earnest and I'm still trying to finish off these reviews. Hey, progress is progress, right?

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Williams Perez, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the second consecutive year, Perez was in the mix, but injuries limited him to just 84 innings overall. In some ways, that was 84 too many. While he threw a little less than half of the major league innings he threw in 2015, Perez was essentially the same pitcher as far as FIP goes. He was a bit unlucky (58% LOB%) which contributed to an ERA over 6. We also saw Perez change up his pitch selection this season and utilize a four-seamer to keep batters from keying in on his sinker too much.

2017 Projection: The problem for Perez is not new. It has followed him throughout his young career. We know he can throw strikes and induce his fair share of groundballs, but does he have the ability to get the ball past hitters? In the majors, the answer seems to be no. Roughly 10% of all pitches thrown toward hitters become swinging strikes. For Perez, that mark is about 6%. To put that in perspective - over the last two seasons, only six pitchers have 150 innings in the majors and a worse swinging strike percentage. That's not enough to keep a pitcher from being successful, but it certainly doesn't make things any easier. Pitching to contact is not a terrible strategy, especially for a sinker baller, but major league hitters are much better at pounding mistakes than minor league hitters. Perez is a decent depth guy, but short of developing a plus pitch that he can get whiffs on, his value should be limited to emergency starts when he makes the short trip over from Gwinnett.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jace Peterson, 2B, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Year 2 of #JaceOnBase saw Peterson reach base at a much higher rate (.350 to .314) with the help of an improved walk rate (+3.4% compared to 2015). While that pushed Jace's numbers up a bit, he still lagged well behind the major league average for second basemen. It's worth mentioning that his full-season stats include an awful start that prompted the Braves to demote him to Gwinnett after 21 games in which Peterson slashed .182/.260/.205. After returning, Peterson slashed .265/.362/.389 over the remaining 94 games. That's definitely something to build upon. Expected to have a future role as a plus utility player, Peterson picked up a start at third and one in center field - along with nearly a dozen in left field. After solid, though unspectacular, defensive metrics in 2015, Peterson's numbers at second looked pretty ugly. I tend to believe that is more statistical variation than actual performance and I'm comfortable saying that Jace is an average defender at second. Nothing special, but likely not a defensive issue to concern yourself with.

2017 Projection: Peterson is a fine stopgap at second base, especially if the Braves bring in someone to protect Peterson from seeing too many southpaws. Against lefties, Peterson has hit a miserable .214/.269/.268 with just one of his career 13 homeruns. Paired with a better option than Gordon Beckham or Chase d'Arnaud, Peterson could keep second base warm until Ozzie Albies arrives in the majors. The Braves could certainly do better than Peterson, but with Albies hopefully on his way to Atlanta sometime next summer, is it worth the effort to try to improve second base? Probably not, though, like I said, a better platoon partner would be helpful.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, 40-years old

2016 Review: That fountain of youth he found in 2015 dried up in 2016 and the fall from grace was epic. A year after slashing .300/.339/.430, Pierzynski struggled to the tune of .219/.243/.304. He went from a 111 wRC+ to a 41. His wOBA fell nearly 80 points. Eventually, the Braves moved onto Tyler Flowers full-time before sending Pierzynski to the DL. He returned briefly in September, but again hit the DL to end the season.

2017 Projection: Is there much to project? Will he officially retire? He'll have a tough time finding a team at the age of 40 that's interested in a catcher who couldn't even on-base his weight last year. The Braves certainly won't be too keen on a reunion so it would seem to be time for Pierzysnki and the $64 million and change he has earned over his career to head home.

Braves Throw Away the Grill(i)

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Tuesday's trade of Jason Grilli is reminiscent of the trade of Jhoulys Chacin. The Braves appear to get little out of the trade outside of opening a spot on the 25-man roster from a veteran. The promising results from Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez made the Chacin trade a plus for Atlanta. Grilli's immediate replacement is Ryan Weber. That's not quite as exciting.

Signing Grilli was a bit of a surprise in the offseason of 2014-15. After an All-Star campaign in 2013, Grilli had lost his closer job the following year with the Pirates before being pushed to the Angels to end the season. Like Jim Johnson, Grilli was a former closer who could bring the bullpen depth. Unlike the one-year "show me" offer Johnson accepted, Grilli was more desired by the Braves and received at least $8M in guaranteed salary out of the deal with an addition $2.75 million to be earned in 2017 if his option was exercised. Right before his first season with the Braves, Grilli was named closer in the wake of Craig Kimbrel's trade to the Padres.

He was superb from there with a 4.5 K/BB rate over 33.2 innings and 24 saves. It was All-Star-quality first half right up until he hurt his Achilles running toward first base to field a throw on a grounder. It ended his 2015 season and really ended Grilli's run as a top closer. A late start this spring didn't keep him from joining the major league roster, but he blew a save on opening day and would be dinged up for runs on five of his nine April outings. From there, he lost his big innings appointment and rarely worked with a close lead. The fact that the Braves were going with Bud Norris over Grilli is all you need to know.

The trade saved very little in terms of salary as the Blue Jays will merely cover a pro-rated portion of a major league minimum. The Braves received right-hand pitcher Sean Ratcliffe out of the deal. A native to Canada, Ratcliffe was an 18th rounder in 2013 who was known more as a prep catcher than a pitcher. The move to full-time pitcher was difficult on Ratcliffe as he showed little control in two stints in the Gulf Coast League (21 BB to 15 K over 22.1 ING). Hard work led to some clear improvements in 2015. Over 40 innings, he walked just 16 and struck out 30. Over his last eight games, he walked just two in 17.1 innings.

The reason the Jays were in love with his arm was that he can throw hard (mid-90's) with a slider that could be a plus pitch someday. It's a long road to getting a productive arm, but some scout probably liked his potential. A pitcher with his profile has a chance for big strikeout numbers, but that comes with the ability to throw strikes early-and-often in counts. Ratcliffe is not there, yet.

If this trade seems "meh," it's because it is. The Braves received little out of this trade except a live arm with three years of professional experience and no games at full-season A-ball. With that in mind, the Braves probably felt that any offer for Grilli was "good enough." Ratcliffe, like Adam McCreery, gives the Braves another arm with a chance. That's about it.

Saturday Stats Pack: #WilliansWatch, Riley, Swanson, Ruiz

Going to do something different this week, though it's actually going back to what I used to do with this series. Rather than splitting up observations by minor league affiliate, I'll just make note of interesting stats of the particular players. Should be easier and more fun that way. In addition, feel free to check out the major league companion to this series at my other site. Topics discussed include Aaron Blair's opening three games, historic marks in SLG and HR, and how badly the Braves are doing in WAR. It's a real joy to read.

1 Strikeout

It's over. The great 2016 #WilliansWatch has reached its end. It actually came to a close the Friday before last, but I missed last week's edition for my daughter's birthday. Willians Astudillo struck out swinging to open the bottom of the second inning against Jacksonville's Jarlin Garcia (Miami). It ended a streak of 54 AB to begin the year without a strikeout. #WilliansWatch might continue in a different facet, however. He's already up to 23 AB without a second strikeout.

36 Strikeouts

From a ridiculous frequency to put the bat on the ball to the opposite end. Austin Riley leads Braves minor leaguers with 36 K's in his first 101 AB. Riley remains a very intriguing prospect, but we are seeing what we didn't last year - adversity. The 19 year-old has a .282 OBP and while he has shown the power (12 EBH), the inability to get on base and the all-too-common quick trip to the dugout should make his biggest supporters pause and remember that he's still very young and not even close to contributing for the Braves.

19 Walks/14 K

One last focus on this strikeout theme comes from the impressive bat of Dansby Swanson. Among minor league hitters, his .455 OBP is tops. A big reason for that is his 19 walks in 121 PA (16%). The 19 walks also leads minor league hitters. Conversely, he has struck out just 14 times, which shows just how advanced Swanson is at this point. He remains the minor-league leader in doubles with 15 and only one other player, Midland's Ryon Healy, has more extra base hits (20-to-17).

Respect the Ruiz - 3 IBB

Intentional walks are a rarity in minor league ball. It's part of the reason you might see a major league pitcher oddly struggle with throwing intentional passes once he gets to the majors. They simply aren't asked to do it very often. No minor leaguer hitter has gotten the intentional free pass more often so far this season than Rio Ruiz, who is hitting .324/.405/.471 through 28 games. Granted, it's just three walks, but it shows how respected Ruiz is right now in a lineup full of minor league veterans.

5 Balks

So far this season, Braves minor league pitchers have committed a handful of balks. One each for Enderson Franco, Max Fried, and Mike Soroka while Carlos Salazar has two. I mention this because two pitches, Durham's Matt Andriese and Tampa's Jose Campos, each have five all to themselves. At least Braves minor leaguers aren't struggling with that.

Keeping the Ball in the Yard

Sean Newcomb and Soroka are running neck-and-neck for most innings among Braves farmhands without surrendering a homerun to start the season. Newcomb has 31.1 innings while Soroka is at 31 innings. The current minor league leader is Alex Mills, a Double-A tosser for Northwest Arkansas of the Royals organization, who has gone 36 innings so far this year without surrendering a homerun.

Durable and a Workhorse

Williams Perez may lack the stuff to be a big-time major league pitcher, but one thing he can do is give the bullpen a break. Six days after getting a rain-shortened complete game victory (he only threw 5.1 innings), Perez handled the Charlotte Knights with ease on Friday night. He gave up just one hit and walked one batter while striking out nine during the shutout. He threw 112 pitches in the win, including 76 strikes, and induced 12 groundballs and 3 pop-ups. His game score - 91. I'd call that a stellar performance.

Transaction Tuesday: Sims, Marksberry, Kinman

I'm going to try something new this season and that's keeping up with minor league transactions. Every Tuesday, I'll take a look at each level to go over some of the moves and provide analysis. If this is the kind of thing that interest you, let me know. Apologies that this was released so late today. Planning for a 5 year-old birthday's party takes a lot out of you. I will not include any of today's transactions and instead push them off to next week's version.

Review last week's transactions.

Gwinnett
Activated: Jose Ramirez...He was placed on the DL after he was outrighted, but didn't stay on it for long. The righty has been active with three games already and has flashed the strikeout potential that led to him making the roster out of spring training (7 K's in 4 ING). He's also surrendered a solo homerun.

Promoted: Lucas Sims...I was a bit surprised to see him get a callup so quickly, but you have to remember that Sims had a dozen starts at Double-A and five starts last fall in Arizona. His first go-around with Gwinnett continued his season-long control issues, but also continued his strong strikeout numbers. It'll be interesting to see how Sims reacts over the next month or so. Hitters in Triple-A are often guys who have seen major league-quality pitches and will make a young pitcher work if he doesn't throw strikes.

Optioned: Casey Kelly...Talk about doing little to hurt your case to return. Kelly worked three innings in his Braves debut and kept a game from becoming a blowout after Bud Norris struggled. It was a good follow-up for Kelly, who worked seven scoreless in his second start with Gwinnett. It wouldn't surprise me any to see Kelly still turn into a capable major league option. After all, there was a time where he ranked in the Baseball America Top 100 in four consecutive seasons.

Optioned: Matt Marksberry...It's a bit surprising that the Braves choose to keep Eric O'Flaherty over the younger lefty. Say what you will about Marksberry's limitations, but he has been studly against lefties in the majors (.164/.270/.255). He handled Mississippi hitters with ease before his short promotion to Atlanta. He'll be the next lefty called up when the Braves want one.

Optioned: Williams Perez...The biggest problem for Perez in the majors is that he really doesn't have the stuff to be a big league starter. He can stick around and even might have a nice run where he holds down the fort for a few starts, but he relies on deception and control in the minors - things that don't get him far enough with major league hitters. He struggled in his return to Triple-A, giving up three runs on three walks over five innings. He also struck out five.

Demoted and Promoted: Braeden Schlehuber...It's been a slow start to the season for Schlehuber, who began things on the DL. After being activated the week before last, he was "demoted" to Danville to get the roster numbers under control before being "brought" back. The career .218 hitter is 1-for-6 in two games this year.

Outrighted, Demoted, and Promoted: Joel De La Cruz...What a quick major league experience for De La Cruz. He didn't appear in a game when he was called up with Hunter Cervenka before being not just demoted, but outrighted off the 40-man. He's been pretty decent in the early going for Gwinnett and will look to continue that.

Mississippi
Activated: Kyle Kinman...Good to see Kinman's stay on the DL was short-lived. A lefty with a lot of believers, Kinman struggled a bit out of the gate after making a late run in camp with the big league club. In his first appearance since being activated, he threw a quiet inning with a walk, but induced a double play to face the minimum.

Demoted: Danny Burawa...The former Yankees product opened camp with a chance to make the major league roster. He's not back down in Double-A, marking the fourth consecutive season he's spent time at the level. Part of his demotion was related to the numbers game, but he did little to earn more opportunities with the G-Braves. Of particular concern was the 11 walks in 7 innings.

Demoted: Madison Younginer...Signed this offseason on a minor league deal out of the BoSox organization, Younginer has not had the kind of start a player likes to have with a new team. He maintained a nearly 2 WHIP with Gwinnett before being demoted and got roughed up for three runs with Mississippi in his debut there.

Carolina
Activated: Bryton Trepagnier...A 41st rounder by the Pirates in 2010, Trepagnier signed with the Braves last year and appeared in 42 forgetful games for Mississippi last year in which he walked 44 and struck out 30. He must have a believer or two because statistically, the results simply have never really been there.

DL'd: Raymar Navarro...Signed this offseason after defecting from Cuba, Navarro's early-season numbers haven't been much to write home about (6.2 ING, 6 K, 3 BB, 4 ER).

Demoted and Promoted: Sean McLaughlin...A 19th rounder out of Georgia last June, McLaughlin briefly was taken off the roster last week. The undersized righty has had a pretty good start to his professional career with 52 K's in 49 innings to go with his 2.39 ERA. That includes stops last year with Danville and Rome and this season with the Mudcats.

Rome
Promoted: Oriel Caicedo...Caicedo has been up-and-down a few times between Rome and "Danville" since the season began. He's struck out 8 in 8.1 innings for Rome when he's been around to pick up game action. Included in his four appearances was his first professional save.

Danville
Promoted and Demoted: Michael O'Neal...Signed out of the independent leagues after he was undrafted coming out of Auburn, O'Neal briefly was on the Carolina roster last week. He appeared in two games and gave up a homerun over three innings. He walked two and struck out a pair. O'Neal throws in the low-90's with a two-seam fastball according to this article.

Demoted: Victor Mateo...A repeat name on this list, Mateo was just activated and had appeared in four games before being moved down to Danville as a procedural move. He probably is still with the Mississippi Braves, but is simply not "active."

Demoted: Joe Kennedy...I mentioned him last week as well. Kennedy spent three seasons in Australia getting very little work before an eight start run with Melbourne last year. The lefty appeared in four games with Rome with pretty poor results.

Demoted: Rob Wooten...Yep, Danville's pretty much a place the Braves stash arms until they need them. Wooten is a veteran of 71 major league games before this season and had appeared in five games with Gwinnett before being "demoted."

GCL Braves
No moves.

DSL Braves
No moves.

Welcome to the Show, Aaron Blair!

If you haven't heard by now, where have you been? It's Aaron Blair Day at Turner Field as the young righty becomes the first Top 5 Braves prospect to make his debut in 2016. It seemed likely after his last outing where he tossed seven no-hit innings with a walk, but we learned last night it would be Blair and not Mike Foltynewicz who would replace Williams Perez in the rotation.

Was it the right call? Should we worry about service time considerations in a lost year? Regardless, Atlanta is moving on and for a day, things got really interesting in Atlanta for it.

Please read my short profile/scouting report on Blair. 

Braves Cut Three More Relievers

I went over this a little in today's 5 for Monday post at my other site. Give it a read as it also touches on the rotation (especially Jhoulys Chacin), spring training stats, the 2016 draft, the road back for Jason Grilli and Mike Foltynewicz, and others odds and ends.

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Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Braves continued their quick and decisive series of cuts on Monday morning, adding Matt Marksberry and Chris Withrow to the list of arms that were previously in the running, but now have "just died and went back down to the minors." Southpaw Hunter Cervenka joined the duo, though he was "reassigned" rather than optioned because he wasn't on the 40-man roster.

Marksberry and Withrow were both surprising cuts, especially at this point. As a favorite in the battle to join the Braves coming out of camp, Marksberry had moments of glory before a recent bad game. Marksberry has some qualities that make him an attractive member of any bullpen, but he's hurt by one thing right now - he has options. The Braves want to maintain a high level of depth and keeping a LOOGY at AAA rather than losing a player without options was an easier sell for the Braves.

Withrow was even more shocking because many, including me, had him pegged as a key member of the 2016 bullpen. Over 56 innings in the majors, Withrow has a 3.44 xFIP, 3.08 SIERA, and 93 cFIP - which all give the impression that he's a capable major league option when healthy. The Braves may have not seen the level of control they want  from the righty, though to option him this quickly is still curious. Again, much like Marksberry, Withrow has options (actually just one) whereas players like Jose Ramirez don't.

Speaking of Ramirez, his chances of making this roster only improve. The same can be said for Rule 5 additions like Evan Rutckyj and Daniel Winkler, along with non-roster invitees Alex Torres, Carlos Torres, and Alexi Ogando. However, there is still much that is left to be done because we only know that Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson will be in the mix. If he suffers no setbacks, Jason Grilli will be there as well. That doesn't even take into account Ian Krol, who was expected to be a player in the bullpen, but might go the way of Withrow and head to Gwinnett to start 2016. Oh, and we should also mention the possibility of a long-relief arm such as Williams Perez or Ryan Weber being shifted to the bullpen to provide insurance for the rotation, though I'd think Winkler could be included in that mix as well.

The Braves are being proactive here, which puts the pressure on those players remaining in the picture to produce. We've seen what happens when they don't.

Random Former Prospect Sunday - J.R. Graham

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.

Bruce Hemmelgarn/Getty

There was a time where Braves fans penciled J.R. Graham's name into future rotations. A right-hander with three quality pitches including a mid-90's fastball, Graham reached Mississippi just a year after the Braves grabbed him in the 4th round of the 2011 draft. He was a big asset in a system with a dwindling amount of pitching prospects once the Big Four of Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino either made it to the bigs or were traded. But...that's how far the story goes. Well, with the Braves at least.

Originally selected in the 46th round of the '08 draft by the A's, the California-born Graham decided to attend Santa Clara University instead. The Broncos have produced a lot of draftees (160 total), but only three have gone on to have a 10 WAR or better career according to Baseball-Reference with Randy Winn their most notable player. The last time the Braves selected a player from Santa Clara was back in 1990 when they selected generic infielder Ed Giovanola. But in 2011, Graham was still available for the Braves in the 4th round. The #146th overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the 120th best prospect heading into the draft so that was good value for Frank Wren's team.

After signing, Graham blitzed the APPY League over nearly 60 innings. He carried an impressive 4 K/BB ratio and gave up no homers in that time frame. His maturity and quick success prompted the Braves to push Graham past Rome so that he could start 2012 with the Lynchburg Hillcats. It worked rather well. In 17 starts, he duplicated his 4 K/BB rate in a bigger sample size (102.1 ING). His K's fell, but so did his walks. He pitched well beyond his years and it almost seemed like he had yet to be challenged. Atlanta sought to solve that by promoting him to Mississippi to finish the year. The Braves under Wren often attached accelerated timetables to the college pitchers they selected and Graham was no different. With about 205 innings under his belt, he was just a step away from the majors.

At that time, Graham had an impressive collection of pitches with a mid-90's fastball that had heavy sink on it. He kept hitters off balanced with a nice change-of-pace plus a swing-and-miss slider. If he could only stay healthy, he was going to remain a big part of the picture for the Braves.

Ah, but there's the rub. 2013 was an eight-start shortened season where he dealt with shoulder issues, which caused his velocity to tail off. Going through adversity is not uncommon for Graham. He was born three months prematurely at just 2 pounds. He even stopped breathing in his father's hands before being revived. Graham fights for every little thing he achieves and plays with a chip on his shoulders. An aggressive hurler, he earns the reputation as a bulldog. Now that he had control of his stuff, he wasn't going to let an injury keep him down for long.

Unfortunately, his body disagreed. While theoretically healthy during much of 2014, shoulder problems are a very difficult thing for a pitcher to shake. The Braves tried to baby him, giving him a strict pitch limit to keep his innings down. He didn't reached 70 pitches until his tenth start and after a good start to his season, his numbers began to decline. Graham would miss nearly a month of baseball before a late July return. After four brief starts, he moved to the bullpen and didn't have much success there either. All told, he had a 5.58 ERA in 71 innings with a 1.9 K/BB rate.

After the season, the Braves and their new front office had some Rule 5 decisions to make. They chose to protect Yean Carlos Gil and Williams Perez over Graham and Cody Martin, another successful ex-college pitcher. While Gil would later be designated for assignment, keeping Perez turned out to be the right move as he would start 20 games for the Braves in 2015. Martin would pass through the Rule 5 draft and briefly looked good in the majors before being shipped out in a trade. Graham didn't last nearly as long. The Twins selected him in the Rule 5.

A full-time move to the pen and a good offseason returned a lot of the velocity Graham had been missing. He was back in the mid-90's with max speeds of 98 mph. A lot of people were upset with the Braves for letting him go for nothing. His early success with the Twins gave their disappointment more validity. After 1.1 innings with a K against the Reds on July 1, Graham had a 2.92 ERA over his first 22 games and 37 innings. The walks (11) were a bit high and homers (6) stood out, but he was showing some good things. He even made a spot start against the Brewers on June 6, going 4 innings and allowing a run on a homerun. However, things got ugly after July 1. Over his final 17 games, he gave up 23 runs in 26.2 ING. Relegated to only low-leverage innings, he pitched sparingly over the final weeks especially with the Twins trying to stay alive in the Wild Card race. He also missed a little time toward the end of August with shoulder troubles.

Much was made about the Braves' decision to not protect Graham. Most of this is attached to fans overvaluing their team's prospects. The Braves had a pitcher who, while clearly talented, was being sidetracked by shoulder issues. In today's modern medicine world, it's just a reality that it's easier to fix ligament damage than shoulder trouble. The Braves made that point clear by picking Daniel Winkler in the same Rule 5 draft where Graham went to the Twins. Winkler, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, was viewed as an asset to bet on versus Graham.

The Twins now don't have to feel the need to keep Graham in the majors to satisfy the Rule 5 rules so we might see Graham back in the minors when 2016 opens. Always the fighter, it's easy to root for Graham. But the chances that the Braves will regret losing him are pretty slim.

Previous Random Former Prospects...
Elvis Andrus
Bobby Smith
Bubba Nelson
Neftali Feliz
Gorkys Hernandez
Matt Belisle
Matt McClendon