TOT - The OTHER Teixeira Deal

Chris J. Nelson (CC SA 3.0), via Wikipedia Commons

Transaction of Today...July 29, 2008 - The Atlanta Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Stephen Marek (minors) and Casey Kotchman.

It was the moment that the Braves resigned themselves to admit that their swing-for-the-fence effort the previous July failed. On this day nine years ago, the Braves sent the dynamic first baseman, Mark Teixeira, to the Angels for a pitifully small package of talent considering what they had themselves paid a year before. It would be one of the few and final mistakes for a general manager who tried desperately to squeeze one final contending effort from his squad. John Schuerholz, who will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame tomorrow, overestimated the need for the Atlanta Braves. Fortunately for Atlanta, he was right more times than he was wrong during his 15+ years at the helm.

Let's flash back to 2007 because we simply can't tell this story otherwise. On July 29th, the Braves beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 14-0 behind seven wonderful innings from Tim Hudson, homers by Andruw Jones and Scott Thorman, and a five-RBI day from Chipper Jones. Thorman and Chipper Jones were joined by Edgar Renteria and Kelly Johnson up the middle on the infield. Meanwhile, Andruw Jones was flanked by Jeff Francoeur and a productive platoon of Matt Diaz and Willie Harris in left. Add in Brian McCann behind the plate and the offense was pretty darn good. Well, with the exception of Thorman and Andruw, who again both hit homers that day. The centerfielder from Curacao was coming off a five-year sample where he slashed .266/.352/.524 with nearly 200 homers. This included his 2005 near-MVP season. However, things just never got going for Jones in '07 and he hit an abysmal .222/.311/.413. It would be the beginning of the end for him.

Meanwhile, Thorman was struggling after being handed first base following the trade of Adam LaRoche. He would hit just .216/.258/.394 during the season and worse, Craig Wilson had flamed out after being brought over from the Pirates to help. The Braves first tried to use Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a top prospect at catcher, to help fill in and by mid-July, they acquired the 48-years-young Julio Franco after the latter was cut by the Mets. None of these options were exciting.

Despite the holes at first base and center field, the Braves were 55-51 on the season and 4.5 games out of the division race and just a couple games behind the Dodgers for the NL Wild Card. John Schuerholz thought the Braves had one last run in them with the remaining core from those great Braves' teams that routinely ran away with the division crown. John Smoltz was 40, Chipper was 35, and Andruw was 30. This would be the final summer all three would be with the Braves.

So, Schuerholz pulled the trigger on July 31. With the young McCann in place, the Braves felt Saltalamacchia was blocked and better used as a trade piece. They then packaged Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, a pair of exciting prospects who were a few years away from contributing, with Matt Harrison, a southpaw close to the majors with a middle-of-the-rotation grade. When the Rangers waffled on Harrison's medical reports, Atlanta threw another prospect, Beau Jones, in the deal to smooth things over. Texas also added left-hander Ron Mahay in the deal to help out a Braves bullpen that had lost its best southpaw in Mike Gonzalez to injury.

The Braves also added relievers Octavio Dotel and Royce Ring that day in other trades. The focus was clear. With Teixeira added to an already impressive lineup and a shutdown bullpen that also had Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Bob Wickman, the Braves were betting on being able to outhit the other team and shut them down late. All of this effort was to mask what was the 2007 Braves' true problem - the starting rotation. In Hudson and Smoltz, the Braves had a pair of excellent pitchers who qualified for 51 quality starts between them. The rest of the team managed 30. The rest of the rotation read like a who's who of bad pitchers who have started for the Braves over the last decade - Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, Anthony Lerew, and Jeff Bennett. All of these pitchers had a FIP of 4.78 or better.

The 2007 Braves were the Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain of a new generation. But the Braves saw a way - a very narrow path, I grant you, but a way to the playoffs. However, the dream crashed quickly. During a damp night on August 2, Renteria went deep in the hole after a ball hit by Ty Wigginton and came up lame. The Braves, who had already used their two backup middle infielders in Yunel Escobar and Chris Woodward, were forced to move Chipper Jones to shortstop. Renteria had a sprained ankle. Luckily, the Braves had Escobar, who had been sharing time with Johnson at second. Still, the Braves needed everything to go right for Schuerholz's plan to work and Renteria going down wasn't going to help. Neither did losing Dotel, who pitched just nine times after the deal.

Atlanta pressed on, though. Before the arrival of their new teammates in Atlanta, the Braves blew out the Astros 12-4 on July 31 to improve to five games over .500. Atlanta actually did pretty well down the stretch, but bad luck and an offense that wasn't quite as dynamic as advertised led them to a 28-27 finish (despite the second-best run differential down the stretch in the NL). Schuerholz hung up his GM reigns and passed the responsibility of getting the Braves back to the playoffs to Frank Wren.

Wren completed a deal that first was brought up while Schuerholz was in charge, sending Renteria to Detroit for Jair Jurrjens. He added Josh Anderson, Will Ohman, Omar Infante, and Mark Kotsay as he navigated the little financial freedom he had with the needs of his team. He also approached Scott Boras and Teixeira about a new contract. Boras, notorious for pushing his players to hit the open market, helped to convince Teixeira to pass on the contract. It's not known what that deal may have been, but here's some context - Teixeira had declined a $140M, 8-year deal from the Rangers the previous spring.

Teixeira would continue to hit like Teixeira. Over 103 games to open the 2008 season, Teixeira hit .283/.390/.412 with 20 HR. But the 2008 Braves were hopeless. Francoeur fell on his face, but worse, the pitching staff was again a failure. Smoltz went down early and Hudson went down later that summer. While the rookie Jurrjens was impressive and the Braves unearthed some surprising contributions out of Jorge Campillo, the rest of the staff was just awful. With the bullpen managing to convert just 26 saves, the Braves limped to a 45-50 start at the break. Selling was a real possibility for a team that often was buying at the deadline.

After winning just four games of their first ten coming out of the All-Star Break, the Braves waved the white flag. The Angels came calling with an offer for Teixeira. They had failed to acquire the first baseman the previous summer but were now anxious to finally get their guy. They offered Casey Kotchman, but the Braves balked asking for top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart and a third player in addition to Kotchman. The Angels counted with Kotchman and a Double-A reliever, Stephen Marek, who wasn't one of their best prospects by a mile and waited for the Braves to blink. It was a buyer's market and they knew that. Ultimately, Wren couldn't get enough action from Arizona, Tampa Bay, Boston, or the big pockets of the Yankees and Dodgers, to acquire something better. He accepted the Angels' miserable offer.

Kotchman wasn't a terrible consolation prize, though. He had hit .296/.372/.467 the previous year, his first as a full-timer in the majors. He was also hitting .287/.327/.448 at the time of the trade and at 25 years-old, wasn't far removed from being a top prospect in all of baseball. His numbers with the Braves were never that good, though. He slashed .267/.346/.378 as a first baseman in the National League - which wasn't acceptable. The Braves continued their revolving door at first base by trading Kotchman the next trading deadline for Adam LaRoche, the guy whose original trade opened the door for Thorman, whose poor play prompted the trade for Teixeira in the first place.

Marek made it to Triple-A, but never appeared in the majors. His career was over after 2012.

Meanwhile, Teixeira would help the Angels get to the playoffs, where they would lose to the Red Sox in four games. He then signed for $40 million more than the Rangers had offered two years before when he joined the Yankees for an eight-year, $180M contract. The Angels made out okay, though. They offered Teixeira arbitration after the playoffs and after he signed with the Yankees, the compensation pick turned into the #25th overall pick of the 2009 draft. Which turned into Mike Trout. Which turned into the tears of Braves Country.

The second Teixeira deal is a tough one to swallow - both for the players the Braves surrendered to get him and the package they received. Nine years ago today, the Braves tried to get anything - anything at all - to soften the blow the pending loss of Teixeira would bring. Ultimately, it didn't do that. It just made it more clear how things went the wrong way from the moment Teixeira was acquired.

Time to Move Brandon Phillips

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

John Coppolella should trade Brandon Phillips.

Sure, we can talk into lengths (and have) about the limitations with trading Phillips. To sum up, the market is likely small for a second baseman who can't play anywhere else and has the ability to block trades to a dozen other teams. Such a small market makes Phillips a guy who won't bring much in a trade. Even though he's dirt cheap (less than a half-a-million for the rest of the year) and could be in line for a 2 fWAR season, without many teams in the hunt, Phillips just isn't going to attract the attention Coppolella would like. Coppy is not the type of general manager to pull the trigger on a trade just to trade someone. He's all about maximizing value and giving away Phillips for a C-grade prospect is not what he usually goes for.

But the Braves aren't acquiring a prospect for Phillips if they do trade the veteran. Sure, in the basic sense, they are getting a player or two for Phillips, but what they are truly acquiring is a roster spot and a spot in the lineup. What the Braves are trading for is time for Ozzie Albies, who many, myself included, feel is ready for a promotion to the major leagues. If it weren't for the presence of Albies, I wouldn't be promoting a trade of Phillips. While I wouldn't have minded one, considering that I don't think the market will develop for him in a significant way, I would also be okay with keeping him.

With Albies in the mix, though, I want Phillips traded. It has nothing to do with the veteran and everything to do with beginning the Albies era. Consider this: Albies is now hitting .292/.336/.451 over 80 games. He batted a measly .248/.307/.351 at Gwinnett during a 56-game run there last year so he's improved upon those numbers notably. Also, those full-season numbers don't tell you how Albies has played recently. From May 8 to July 9, Albies has slashed .318/.368/.495 with nine doubles, six triples, six home runs, and is successful in all but one of his 13 stolen base attempts. Feel free to troll, "is that good?"

Not only is he showing a lot of new power with a career-high of seven home runs, four of them have come against left-hand pitching and his overall marks against southpaws continue to improve - a product of working with a pretty good switch-hitter in his own right, Chipper Jones. Oh, and when I said he's already set a career-high in homers, it's worth remembering that he's also matched his career total entering the season. If you are looking for a word to describe Albies' season to this point, it's the same word my three-year-old's preschool teacher used to describe my Riley monster - "blossoming."

Remember that Albies is only 20 years-old. That is seven years younger than the average International League player. For the second consecutive year, he's the youngest player in the league and over the last two months, he's finding it. He's caught up - a lot quicker than everyone else.

You might contend that trading Brandon Phillips hurts the Braves' chances of possibly sneaking into a playoff spot. Of course, as of right now, there's about a 2.4% chance of the Braves making the playoffs, but you Lloyd Christmases out there only read "chance" out of that sentence, didn't you? Let me put it in a way that might rest your fears of missing out on the chance to get to the playoffs if Atlanta trades Phillips - they may not miss a beat. Again, as impressive as Phillips has been, he still ranks 16th in fWAR among 2B this year. While he's been a surprise of sorts, he's not irreplaceable.

Grant McAuley - Follow on Twitter - used with permission

Even if you ignore that Phillips hasn't established a hard-to-duplicate pace and that, at 36, a hot summer in Atlanta might get to him, there is another reason to believe trading Phillips won't hurt. Albies could be just as valuable during the second half of the season as Phillips would be. Let me start by saying Phillips is a slightly below-average defender right now. He once was elite, but over the last three years, time has caught with him. He carries a -0.1 UZR/150, -5 rPM, and -4 DRS into the break. Albies is carrying some negative defensive grades of his own according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics but routinely has been above-average at both shortstop and second base over his career. Heading into this season, he made MLB.com Pipeline's All-Defensive Team at second base. I am confident he would outproduce Phillips defensively.

Base-running wise could be a bit of a wash. Albies, being young and inexperienced, would likely have a few TOOTBLANs here-and-there, but Phillips runs into some crazy-dumb mistakes as well. As far as base stealing, Albies is easily the bigger threat there. He's swiped 21-of-23 attempts this season while Phillips is 7-for-11. While Albies may struggle as he learns to read new pitchers and deal with the best catchers in the world, he's definitely the better bet to be a weapon on the basepaths than Phillips at this point.

At the plate, Phillips may have the edge, but don't be so sure about that. While you can expect Albies to struggle as he adjusts - at the age of 20 - to major league pitchers and advanced scouting, Phillips' modest offensive numbers could still be reached considering Albies' improving offensive game. Do I think Albies could post a 94 wRC+ in the majors this season as Phillips so far has done? Absolutely.

Let's also not ignore that the Braves will have backup options should Albies prove not to be ready for a full-time gig in the majors. Johan Camargo is currently a man without a position short of stealing playing time from Dansby Swanson. He could move over to second base and help out over there. In addition, the Braves have Sean Rodriguez on his way back. They could also give Micah Johnson some time at second base, a position he has a lot of experience playing. These options are not ideal. I would prefer Ozzie Albies succeeding and sticking in the lineup. However, the Braves have other players they can go to should Albies need to head back down. In addition, you could make a compelling argument that a Camargo/Rodriguez timeshare would be just as good as Phillips.

Further, to circle back to the whole idea of hurting the current squad, allow me to present the 1997 Chicago White Sox. On July 31 of that year, they were 53-53 and three games back in the AL Central. But they saw the writing on the wall. They knew they were not a good team and rather than keep the pieces together for one little run, they traded off pending free agents Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin, and Roberto Hernandez in a deal with the Giants. Combined, Alvarez and Darwin started 28 games and Hernandez saved 27 prior to the trade. The White Sox received a package of six players in the deal, including Keith Foulke and Bob Howry - players that would help shape the team's next five years. The trade also opened the door for youngsters like Scott Eyre and Mike Sirotka to get an extended look. After the trade, the White Sox went 27-28. They were effectively the same team before and after the trade.

I started this article with a simple statement. Brandon Phillips should be traded. As I said, it has precious little to do with Phillips and everything to do with Albies. The time is now for another step in the rebuild to be crossed. It's time for the Ozzie Albies era to begin.

Walk-Off Talk 1.6: Finding A Partner (Part 3) - The Matt Adams Conundrum

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Next, we looked at one-year assets like Jason Motte and Kurt Suzuki and tried to locate interested parties. Today, we focus completely on one player and his effect on the Braves' franchise player. Events occur in real time.) 

Ryan,

So, here we go. Matt Adams. Oh, boy.

When we mapped out this series, I thought Big City would need his own Big Post because of all the potential teams that theoretically would have an interest in him. However, over the last week, we have seen something intriguing happen. Freddie Freeman - whose injury prompted the Adams deal in the first place - volunteered to move over to third base to allow the Braves to have a starting nine that includes both Adams and Freeman in it.

First, we need to address that before even talking about potential partners for Adams in a deal. On Twitter, you have indicated a willingness to see this move out in a serious, thoughtful manner. On the other hand, yours truly made a joke about how I used John Kruk at shortstop in RBI Baseball and it’s one of my most popular tweets ever. Twitter’s a weird place sometimes.

My general thoughts: Third base has been a dumpster fire for the Braves since the retirement of Chipper Jones. Since the old man last played for the Braves, Braves third basemen have been worth 5.9 fWAR. That ranks 26th of 30 teams. Only three teams have seen their third basemen hit fewer home runs. And imagine how worse things would look without Chris Johnson's God of BABIP-infused 2.5 fWAR season in 2013.

Freddie Freeman's bat certainly would look good at third base. Having both Freeman and Adams in the lineup makes the Braves all the more dangerous provided Adams continues to play out of his mind. Clearly, the Braves can't bench Adams right now to bring back Freeman. It's like a football team benching the hot hand at running back because their former starter has returned. You find a way to utilize both while they are on the same team.

On the other hand - how much defensive value will you sacrifice to get both of these bats in the lineup? Freeman is a better fielder at first base than Adams, but ignoring that, Freeman hasn't played third base in a decade. When the Tigers asked Miguel Cabrera to play third base, at least he had a recent history of playing the position. Third base is not an easy position to play. Chipper Jones was a shortstop who converted to third base and at his very best, he was merely average. Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season? I’m not even going to get into the very real possibility of an increased likelihood of injury with Freeman playing a position he’s not comfortable with.

I get the "what do we have to lose?" crowd. I do. But I don't find that argument particularly compelling. Try to convince me otherwise. 

---------------------------------------------------------------

Tommy,

I’m not going to try to convince anyone that this is a good idea. In fact, if the Braves can still get a stud prospect for Matt Adams, I’m okay with that. But if they don’t go the trade route and they want to explore the idea of moving Freddie to 3rd base, I’d also be down for the trial.

Look, by no means do I think he’s going to be a good defender at 3rd. He lacks range, that’s been well-documented in his years at first base. However, 3B isn’t as much about range as it is reaction, and he has good hands and a good arm but coming in on the ball will be difficult. I think it’s about 90% likely he’d be a below-average defender there if he stayed at 3B beyond 2017. He could be as bad as Miguel Cabrera was in 2013, in which he spent over 1200 innings at the hot corner and “collected” -18 Defensive Runs Saved.

But want to know something else? Miguel was out of his mind good at the plate that year and even his abysmal defense couldn’t hold him back from a 7.5 fWAR year. Although impressive, Miguel’s 2013 still doesn’t match the production of what Freeman was doing before the injury.

But the 10% of this idea is what really intrigues me the most. What if Freddie Freeman can be a defensively average 3rd baseman for this year...and even beyond? What if Matt Adams and his new physique can continue to crush in an Atlanta uniform and decided to stick around for a few years? Can you imagine a couple of LH power hitters at infield corners for the Braves for 4-5 years, popping 40 dingers a year? So, the move to 3B for Freddie is only part of what grabs me about this idea. That Adams is breaking out on a nightly basis, he’s in peak physical shape for his career, and that he’s entering his prime years of production are the X-factors that moves this idea from, “Are you out of your MIND?” to “Okay. This intrigues me.” 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan,

I just want to make a few more comments on this before moving onto another possibility.

The Braves won against Milwaukee on Friday night in no small part because they had a capable defender at third base. With runners on first-and-second - and that run on second was the tying run - a hard shot was hit to third base that Johan Camargo quickly ranged to his left, grabbed the ball, and tossed a strike to second to begin a double play that ended the Brewers' threat. He had no time to waste if he wanted to make the play. In the ninth, after a leadoff double, Dansby Swanson fielded a ball on a grounder up the middle. He expected - and was rewarded with - the third baseman quickly heading to the bag for a possible throw. Camargo received the throw and tagged out the runner. The next batter lifted a long flyball that would have scored the tying run had it not been for Swanson’s heady play.

Does Freeman make those plays? Maybe the second one provided he doesn't get caught napping, but I definitely think he doesn't make the first one.

"But Tommy, in the late innings, they can switch out Camargo for Adams and move Freeman to first for defense."

True, but what if that play happens in the fourth inning and instead of a double play happening, a three-run inning occurs? Try working your way back from that. I know many people think us Deputy Downers are making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to defense, but it matters, buddy. It really does. You mentioned the 2013 Tigers. Ignoring that Cabrera played third base full-time in '07 and '08 and switched back to the position in '12, the 2013 Tigers bashed their way to 93 wins. They also had the fourth largest difference between ERA and FIP in that their FIP was 0.35 below their team ERA. They actually led the league in FIP, but finished ninth (third in the AL) in ERA. They also had something the Braves don't have. Strikeout pitchers. 60% of their rotation was 200-K pitchers and they rely significantly less on their defense than guys like Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey. All I'm saying is that defense matters and ignoring it won't make the Braves much better.

But maybe everything I wrote is for not. Maybe the Braves are doing everything in their power to retain trade value for Matt Adams. Maybe they want the league to be so sure that they'll keep Adams and play Freeman at third only to ensure maximum interest in the slugging Big City. Some have suggested that and while I have a difficult time believing that the Braves - and Freeman - would do this much to convince the league of something they don't actively want to do, anything's possible. So, what say you? Are the Braves trying hard to convince of something that they don't particularly want?

------------------------------------------------------------------

Tommy,

Defense matters and while I’d like to argue with your points above, I cannot do it and look at myself naked in the mirror tomorrow morning. The risk factor ultimately breaks down to this: Does the offensive upside outweigh what is likely to be below average defense at the hot corner. I cannot answer that until I see a year of it, and honestly I don’t think we will see it play out for that long. Someone is going to offer Coppy something he cannot refuse and, if history rings true, Braves country will either be really happy or ready to burn Suntrust down.

I’m sometimes a conspiracy theorist when it comes to Braves rumors, how they start circulating, and I do believe that the Braves use Mark Bowman a whole heckuva lot when trying to boost value. However, I think this little nugget simply fell into their lap in the form of an unselfish Freddie Freeman. It sounds to me that he’s dead-set on coming back a 3-bagger and that confidence and daily work at the position has itself raised Adams’s value...and someone’s going to pony-up a prospect or 6! What do you think he brings back?

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan,

I have to agree. I don’t buy into the premise that the Braves are letting Freddie Freeman take ground balls at third because they are trying to convince everyone of something they aren’t considering. Instead, I am sure they are considering moving Freeman to third. I don’t like it, but that’s where we are.

Perhaps the option won’t be given to Freeman, though. As you eluded to, the Braves could simply trade away Adams and Freeman would slide back into his usual first baseman gig. But where? And more importantly, what kind of package can the Braves truly expect here?

I’ll look at the latter question first. Adams has absolutely crushed it since joining the Braves just over a month ago. He's bashed a dozen homers in nearly 150 PA with an isolated slugging over .300, a .401 wOBA, and a 148 wRC+. Everything he hits seems to be hard and screaming through the air. For all of the reasons many Braves fans are against trading Adams, you have to imagine that his trade value is climbing.

But how far? Here's where I want to be a little grounded. He's a first baseman who historically is platoon-limited. Is he breaking out in a big way? Potentially, but other teams may not be anxious to hand over A-grade prospects for a guy they grade as position-limited and platoon-limited. That's why he only cost Juan Yepez in the first place. Now, his value has to be higher now, but I don't think he's going to bring back a piece that immediately becomes a Top 5 organizational prospect. Maybe a Top 10 guy, though. Maybe.

And that leads us to who might be interested.

New York Yankees - This matchup is almost too perfect. The Yankees have a deep farm system after selling off their assets last year and have to be anxious to upgrade their first base situation. Chris Carter was brought in, but bombed. Greg Bird is starting to show signs of life, but any value they get back on him at this point is bonus. Tyler Austin recently replaced Carter and is a decent piece, but not a huge prospect by any means. This is a perfect matchup for the Braves.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - I swear they are fit for most of the Braves' pieces. The problem for the Angels is that after years of selling off assets like Sean Newcomb to compete in the majors, their farm system is bare. Like butt naked bare.

Seattle Mariners - Another repeat appearance for the M's as possible trading partners before the deadline. Danny Valencia has bombed so far this season and might be a better fit in his former utility role. The M's could bring back Dan Vogelbach for an extended look, but with them hovering around .500, might they look to seize the day with a big Adams pickup?

Texas Rangers - Sticking with the AL West, the Rangers platoon of Mike Napoli and Ryan Rua has been a failure. With the Rangers' lineup slacking, Adams would be a good fit for them. Add in a potential bigger deal involving Jaime Garcia and the Rangers could surrender a few good pieces to the Braves.

What are some other good fits? And what do you believe a good package for Adams might look like?

-----------------------------------------

After last year’s trade deadline which saw asinine prices for 1-year rentals, I really have no idea what players will cost on this market. But here’s the deal, Tommy. Coppy’s not going to trade Adams just to stockpile another prospect in the system. He’s going to look for serious impact at a position that needs it. If not, then his discussion prior to the season regarding trades becomes null. Sure, no one can argue that he needs to trade all of the 1-year veterans as they have no future value to the team, but if the team is going through all of this trouble to accommodate Adams, he’s going to cost a lot to get him. In my opinion, that price is going to be a top-50 prospect. That’s a pretty loose term right now so I’m keeping the door open on pre-season vs. mid-season vs. post-season. I’m sneaky like that.

From Yankees: Blake Rutherford, Miguel Andujar, or Dustin Fowler
From Angels: There’s no one in this system.
From Mariners: Kyle Lewis or Tyler O’Neill
From Rangers: Again, for me, it’s Joey Gallo or bust

Call me crazy...I’m used to it!

---------------------------------------

Ryan,

No, Matt Adams Isn't Going to Play Third Base

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Flickr

It's not that I don't understand the impulse.

The Braves have a whole at third base right now - though Rio Ruiz is doing his best to change that - and when Freddie Freeman returns, it would seem that Matt Adams is out of a starting job. Sure, you could shift him to left field, though he's blocked there by Matt Kemp.

Of course, with the way Adams has acclimated himself since the trade, it's easy to get excited about the prospect of finding an everyday spot for him. In his first three games, he's gone 5-for-13 with three extra-base knocks, including a pair of homers. Last night, Adams cranked out three of those hits - one that went sailing into the right field bleachers and another opposite-field single that scored the walk-off run.

That last hit even came against a lefty, which Adams typically struggles against. To be fair, Tony Watson has not been a good pitcher this year and lefties are hitting a robust .367 against him. Despite that, it was the first hit Adams had off a lefty all season long. Granted, he only had four plate appearances against them when he stepped up to the plate in the bottom of the ninth.

So, Braves fans, I do get it. But let's get one thing straight - Matt Adams is not going to third base.

Many of you might be saying to yourself, "well, duh, he's a first baseman!" But still, others have suggested that to keep Adams' bat in the lineup, the Braves should consider moving him to third base in the future. There is a whole host of issues at play here, but let's focus on the most pressing one.

"It's Incredibly Hard."

In the film, Moneyball, Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, visits the home of Scott Hatteberg, portrayed by Chris Pratt. Hatteberg, a former catcher who ruptured a nerve in his elbow, had just been released. The film takes some artistic liberties by suggesting Beane's call was the only one Hatteberg had received all winter. In truth, he had just been non-tendered.

As Beane, with infield coach Ron Washington, sits down with Hatteberg. As Beane informs Hatteberg of his plan to move the former catcher to first base, we are given this incredibly fun moment:



Now, that's just first base - long considered the position just about anyone can play. That's unfair because there is a great deal of footwork involved at playing first base. Regardless, first base is where players who lack range go to die (or play 20 years). Third base is often a position for former shortstops who outgrow the position, not first basemen who need a place to play.

Chipper Jones, who suggested Adams at third base during yesterday's rain delay, should know all about that. Jones came up through the minors a shortstop, but the 6'4" lanky kid bulked up and wasn't a fit at shortstop anymore. While he played an occasional shortstop in the majors - plus the outfield - Chipper found a home at third where he could use some of the skills that made him a shortstop (range, arm) to better use.

Most of the top third basemen aren't like Chipper, though. They started at the position early on. Robin Ventura, Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen, David Wright, Evan Longoria - these guys were third baseman from the second they became professionals. Some like Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripkin Jr. later shifted to the position (Ripkin actually began at third base), but the hot corner isn't something you plop a guy at and hope for the best.

Even though that should be pretty easy to understand, the Tigers did just that with Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13. In their defense, Cabrera started his career as a third baseman. He knew how to play the position, though he hadn't played it regularly in a few years. But it didn't work out as well as the Tigers would have liked. Despite having the greatest hitter in the world at the most elite point of his career, the Tigers couldn't win a World Series. Part of that came down to the fact that defense matters. The Tigers said, "screw it, let's hit homers." Their pitching staff was put in an impossible position. Their offense was their only way to win, but to score that many runs, they had to play a bad defense that totaled -66 DRS. Again, defense matters.

Back in 2012, ESPN's Tim Kurkjian looked at how difficult it is to play third base. Ripkin is quoted in the article saying, "You have to make yourself ready for your own safety. On a ball hit to third, you can't afford to take a step back. You have to be like a hockey goalie. There's some fear. And there is no comfort zone. You're on edge. It's a highly stressful, anxious position."

Sound like something you want Matt Adams to deal with?

Throughout Adams nine-year professional career, he has played just one other position than first base. Left field - another position baseball teams think anyone can play. Like Ryan Klesko. Reading Cardinals blogs about the Big City in Left Field experiment, it was like watching an elephant try to flag down a flyball. Other than 34.1 innings in left field, Adams has been a first baseman and a first baseman only. Before you ask, prior to his professional career, Adams was a catcher before shifting to first base in college.

Further, Adams isn't that much of an athlete. He worked hard in the offseason to get in better shape, but he's still a big, lumbering player. He's never flashed much of an arm at first base, either. Since 2013, Adams' first full season, he's started eleven double plays. That's 39th. It's fewer than Lyle Overbay, who hasn't played since 2014. If you are curious, Freddie Freeman has started 62 double plays in that time period - good for second place. Maybe he should be considered for third base?

Just kidding.

Again, I think we all get it. Since Chipper's retirement in 2013, third base has been a position without an owner. Sure, Chris Johnson and Adonis Garcia brought some stability by just playing regularly at the position, but Atlanta is among the ten worst teams according to fWAR at third base since #10 stopped suiting up. It'd be easy to say "give Adams a chance." But this isn't a video game. You can't just throw players all over the field and not suffer from the side effects.

TOT - Braves Give Up on Mike Kelly

Transaction of Today...January 9, 1996 - The Atlanta Braves traded Mike Kelly to the Cincinnati Reds for a player to be named later and Chad Fox. The Cincinnati Reds sent Ray King (June 11, 1996) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.

The year 1991 was the sixth straight season the Atlanta Braves had a draft pick in the top six selections. The previous five only gave the Braves one true cornerstone in Chipper Jones. Steve Avery and Kent Mercker would both have their moments, but Derek Lilliquist and Tyler Houston were busts. And with the success the franchise would experience in 1991 and beyond, they wouldn't get another Top 10 selection until 2009.

After the Yankees chose Brien Taylor with the first overall pick, the Braves were on the clock. I can't tell you who was on the Big Board for the Braves at the time, but the first dozen picks were full of college guys who maxed out as complimentary players like Joey Hamilton, Shawn Estes, and Doug Glanville. The top prep position pick was Dmitri Young, who would hit .292 in the majors. It wasn't until pick #13 (Manny Ramirez) that we started to see some guys who went on to play major roles for their teams like Cliff Floyd, Shawn Green, and Aaron Sele.

The Braves rarely took college players. Lilliquist had stopped a streak of five consecutive high school players selected with a first round pick. Just as rare was the opportunity to select someone with Mike Kelly's pedigree. Previously a 24th rounder coming out of high school, Kelly was Baseball America's Player of the Year as a sophomore and hit .373 with 15 homeruns as a junior before he was selected. He later would be named the 1991 Golden Spikes Award winner.  His coach at Arizona State, Jeff Pentland, said that Kelly was "even better than (Reggie) Jackson and (Barry) Bonds at this stage." Both Jackson and Bonds starred at Arizona State.

With David Justice and Ron Gant already on the team, Kelly seemed like a perfect addition. Signed less than two months later, he joined Durham to finish the year, bypassing rookie and low-A ball. He smacked six homers in 35 games for the Bulls. His success was short-lived, however, as he would struggle over the next two years as he climbed from Double-A to Triple-A. He hit for power and stole bases, but struggled to consistently hit the ball and get on base.

Atlanta kept promoting him, though. In 1994, he was one of three players vying for the time in the wake of Gant's motorbike accident and Chipper Jones' preseason ACL injury. However, it quickly became clear than Ryan Klesko was going to take over after hitting six homers in April. Tony Tarasco was also hitting well and with Dave Gallagher also in the mix, Kelly had to stand out to keep his job. He wasn't able to do that, though, and was hitting .185 with four doubles and no walks through his first 15 games before getting shipped to Richmond in early May.

Kelly would get two more callups before the Strike halted the season and did well enough to raise his triple slash to .273/.300/.506 with 10 doubles and 2 HR. His strong finish set him up to reclaim a roster spot heading in 1995. The Braves still had Justice and Klesko. They also added Marquis Grissom and Dwight Smith. But that still left plenty of at-bats for Kelly as Klesko's caddy. He again underwhelmed as he put up a triple-slash of .190/.258/.314 over 97 games. The Braves' disillusion with him help to convince them to acquire Luis Polonia and Mike Devereaux for the stretch run. Kelly would not play in October as the Braves rambled to their only World Title in Atlanta.

Kelly's struggles in 1995 were the final straw for the Braves. Anxious to add pitching depth, they shipped Kelly to the Reds 21 years ago today in exchange for Chad Fox and a player to be named later. Kelly only played 19 games in the majors the following year, but hit .293 with 6 HR off the bench in '97. The expansion Devil Rays became quite enamored with Kelly and traded Dmitri Young, who they had just drafted from the Reds, to get Kelly. Kelly received his largest share of playing time of his career in '98 while playing with former mentor, McGriff. However, he struggled to the tune of .240/.295/.401. After just two games with the Rockies the next year, his major league career was over.

Meanwhile, Chad Fox would eventually have a solid smoke-and-mirrors season for the Braves in '97. A failed starter, the Braves moved him to the pen and reaped the benefits. Oh, he struck out a good amount of hitters, but he also yielded his fair share of long balls (1.3 per nine) and walks (5.3 per nine). John Schuerholz maximized him, though, and traded him for Gerald Williams after the '97 season. In a way, they turned Fox into a guy who represented the low-end of what they expected out of Mike Kelly when they picked him.

The player to be named later became Ray King six months after the trade. King spent a year-and-half in the system before being moved in a low-profile deal to the Cubs. He would later be re-acquired by the Braves for the 2003 season for John Foster and Wes Helms. Remembered more for his weight than his results, King was solid as a LOOGY for the Braves that season before being attached to the Adam Wainwright/J.D. Drew trade after the season.

Drew's only year in Atlanta, 2004, would be Kelly's final year in baseball. 34 years-old, Kelly had been out of baseball for a couple of years before making a comeback in 2003. He hit well for Omaha, Kansas City's Triple-A team, and spent the next year with the Yankees' top farm team in Columbus. He was decent at the plate, but still didn't impress enough to get playing time in the majors over Bubba Crosby and a 37 year-old Kenny Lofton.

Mike Kelly's trade to the Reds twenty-one years ago is a reminder of how drafts are a lot harder than we think. Kelly was as sure as sure things come. Scouts thought he had all the tools and would be the next Arizona State outfielder to become an All-Star. But scouts can be wrong and in this case, they simply were.

Early 2018 Hall of Fame Thoughts

If you missed it yesterday, I posted my 2017 Hall of Fame ballot at Outfield Fly Rule. The guys at OFR are doing a wonderful job with their Hall of Fame coverage for this year, but what happens next year? Well, let's do some crystal balling.

First off, using Ryan Thibodaux's invaluable Hall of Fame tracker, I can make an educated guess as to who will be named to the Hall of Fame class of 2017. Jeff Bagwell seems like a lock and I believe Ivan Rodriguez gets in as well. Tim Raines would drop off the ballot regardless, but I think he'll receive the needed 3/4's percentage in his final year to avoid the travesty of snubbing Raines one last time.

Before we get too far into this, we are still early in the process. Over the last three years, Thibodaux's tracker of HOF ballots has included between 302 and 331 ballots and as much as 70.5% of the total ballots have been made public. So far, we have just 84 ballots. A lot can change to affect the three players I've mentioned and others that are on the borderline. My gut doubts that each of the players who have received at least 70% of the publicly known ballots will join the Hall of Fame class of 2017. I just want this to be clear, though - this is a theoretical exercise based in part on Thibodaux's tracker, recent history, and gut feelings.

With all that said, if I were to guess who will make up the '17 class, I would stick with the three I've already mentioned and add Trevor Hoffman. The former Padres closer was one of four returning players from last year's ballot who saw their percentage of total votes climb when the non-publicly known ballots were added to the total. To be fair, it was only a difference of about a percentage point, but since it was a rarity on last year's ballot, it stood out. Hoffman is sitting on the threshold right now. If someone is added to this class, it'll be him.

That leaves the steroid-tainted duo of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Their support has climbed into the 70% range early on and while I do believe it will drop, I think they will both be inducted very soon - likely in the same year and that could be 2018. Also in the steroid discussion is Manny Ramirez, who is not looking very strong so far with just 33% of the vote. He's a few years out from really having a case.

Edgar Martinez seems like he'll miss out in 2017, but is trending in the right direction. Of returning voters to this point, he has gained 13 votes and lost just one. He has just two more years of eligibility and might be a last-year guy much like Raines, who is the only player to have a higher net gain in returning voters than the former Mariners' star. In contrast to Martinez, Curt Schilling has lost 14 votes and gained just four. His politics and his personality are hurting him more than his numbers. My gut says he'll get voted in, but it may have to wait until his final year of eligibility.

A couple of other candidates that are trending up are Mike Mussina (+6) and Larry Walker (+7). While Walker is seeing a similar increase in gained votes, he trails Mussina by nearly 40% and received nearly 30% fewer total votes last year. Mussina's trend makes him a likely Hall of Famer over the next couple of seasons. Walker is going to need a major movement to join him.

One last candidate to go over before we look at the ballot newbies for 2018. Vladimir Guerrero has just three less votes than Hoffman to this point and one more vote than Clemens and Bonds. I don't think the voters will make him a first-ballot guy, but he seems like a good bet to make it in 2018.

Next year's rookie class includes four players with a 100 or better Hall of Fame Monitor, which gives them a likely chance to be selected for the Hall of Fame. Two of those players pass 50 in the Hall of Fame standards scale, which means they rank as an average Hall of Famer or better. First, the two that didn't grade well on both and both share one thing in common - elite defense. Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones both have fascinating arguments to join the Hall of Fame and my personal belief is that both are deserving. I think Andruw is an easy selection because once you remove the "he didn't live up to the hype" part of the argument, you can find a Hall of Fame resume. In regards to Vizquel, I make the argument that if you elect a player like Ozzie Smith, why not Vizquel?

The two players who passed both the HOFm and HOFs criteria are Jim Thome and Chipper Jones. My belief is that Thome will be passed on for stupid reasons (position, park, he DH'd some) while Chipper is a first ballot guy. John Smoltz was more of a borderline case and he received nearly 83% of the vote in 2015. People need to quit believing the media is against Atlanta. As we have seen over the last few years, they award the stars of the 90's era quickly and rather overwhelming despite deserving criticisms. While I doubt Andruw makes it in with Chipper in 2018, Andruw is a sure bet to get in eventually. More and more baseball writers are valuing defensive metrics, which will only boost Andruw's case.

So, to recap - my guess is that Bagwell, Rodriguez, and Hoffman will join Raines in this year's class. With that in mind, my early prediction for the 2018 class will be Chipper, Guerrero, Bonds, and Clemens.

Moving forward, I believe Mariano Rivera will be a first ballot guy in 2019 with Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Halladay becoming prime candidates in the years that follow provided none of the trio make it in 2019 (and I doubt they do).

2020's class only has one Hall of Famer in Derek Jeter and he's a first ballot guy. There are no Hall of Famers among the 2021 lot. This is good news for candidates currently on the ballot and those joining in 2018 and 2019 as it will help clear up some of the backlog.

Did I miss the mark on anyone? Let me know.

TOT - Braves Opt To Drop Fick

By jasonippolito (originally posted to Flickr as Fick)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Transaction of Today...November 5, 2003 - The Atlanta Braves released Robert Fick.

Before the 2003 season, the Atlanta Braves were looking to add another bat to their lineup. It would become one of the best offenses in Braves' history, but while many teams had a big bopper at first base, the Braves scratched together a trio to fill in. They brought back their quasi-platoon from the previous season, Julio Franco and Matt Franco (no relation). The duo had been great in '02 and were mostly responsible for that season's triple slash of .283/.349/.419 from first basemen.

While both of the Franco's were solid contributors in '02, only four teams hit fewer than the 18 homeruns Braves 1B hit that season. The Braves saw an opportunity to add to that total and landed on Robert Fick, a converted catcher who had been with the Tigers organization since being drafted in the fifth round of the 1996 draft. He established himself over 2001-02 with a .271/.334/.451 slash in over 1000 plate appearances with 97 extra-base hits, including 36 homeruns. With the Tigers looking to save money, they non-tendered Fick, who they had used as a right fielder in 2002. Because of the "every team gets represented" rule in the All-Star Game, Fick was Detroit's lone All-Star in '02 and scored the tying run in a game that ended in a 7-7 tie.

Fick was one of two options the Braves were considering. The other was another player who was non-tendered by an AL Central team, David Ortiz. While Ortiz was easily the better option at the plate, Atlanta felt Fick would have the better glove and ultimately went in that direction. Of course, had they been more aggressive in their pursuit for Ortiz, it's intriguing to wonder just how much baseball history since 2003 would have been altered.

The Braves didn't need a lot out of Fick, who opened the year as the #2 hitter. He quickly was moved down in the order after Marcus Giles opened the year strong and the former Tiger settled into the sixth spot. It was a great place to hit, by the way. In addition to the young and productive duo of Rafael Furcal and Giles at the top of the lineup, the heart of the order included the outfield of Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, and Andruw Jones. Fick would also hit in front of Javy Lopez, who belted 43 homers.

Fick would lose a good amount of playing time to Julio Franco, who hit .294/.372/.452 as Fick's caddy against left-handers. Fick still under-performed to what the expectations for him were, slashing .269/.335/.418 for the Braves with 11 homers. Despite being the higher sought-after free agent for his glove over Ortiz, Fick was a disappointment defensively and is tied for the most errors by a Braves first baseman in a single season during the last 25 years.

The Braves would win another division title and faced the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS. It's unlikely that Fick would have been brought back after his underwhelming season in '03, but it's safe to say what happened in Game 4 of the NLDS ensured that his time as a Brave was over. After pinch hitting in the 8th inning, Fick tried to put a bunt down. Kyle Farnsworth fielded the ball and threw to first base. In what he later called a case of "[bleeping] baseball," Fick clubbed the glove-hand of Eric Karros as he tried to jar the baseball loose. He was both out and later fined by not only the league, but by Bobby Cox and the Braves. Fick would never apologize for the action.

Thirteen years ago today, the Braves waved goodbye to Fick. The decision was not based solely on Fick's performance and actions during the playoffs. Atlanta also had Adam LaRoche coming up and he would join Julio Franco as Atlanta's first-base tandem in 2004. Fick would play four more years in the majors, but his time as a full-time was over after the Braves cut him. He made a comeback in 2009 for the Orange County Flyers of the independent Golden Baseball League, but that was short-lived.

Since retiring, Fick has tried his hand at both being an agent and a coach.