View From the Rock: Scouting Ayala, Kimbrel, Wood

Bryce is back with some scouting reports on a few Braves pitchers.  A car accident can't keep him down!  I've seen pictures of the car and I'm happy Bryce and his mother weren't more hurt than they were considering how bad the car looked.  Bryce is a former pitcher and has a real eye for scouting them.    

Less than 24 hours removed from a significant car accident, I am back. I bet you’re excited, because if I ain't dead I’m going to share my thoughts with the Braves with you. Bet you’re now wishing I did die, huh? Well, too bad! You’re stuck with me! Buahaha!

All jokes aside, I am miraculously fine despite my car being totaled and besides a nagging pain in my ribs (bone bruises) and a twisted ankle, I am Ibuprofen’d up and here to share some thoughts on some recent observations I've made about a few Braves pitchers.

Luis Ayala

I don’t have much to say about Luis Ayala other than he reminds me of former-Braves sinkerball artist Chad Paronto minus some 75 lbs. He is Paronto-lite—literally and figuratively. Like Paronto, Ayala’s sinker is heavy, but he doesn't feature much else. In low-leverage situations he’s actually a pretty solid pitcher. However, if the Braves are using him come playoffs time, I will be extremely disappointed in Fredi Gonzalez…or extremely depressed that injuries have forced Fredi G to use Paronto-lite in important spots.

Craig Kimbrel

He was dominant throughout the weekend, yes. He’s been dominant for much of the season as well. There’s not much to tell you about Kimbrel that you haven’t already figured out from watching him close games for the Braves for the last 2+ years. However, I do want to express some concern over Fredi’s usage of The BlitzCraig. Sunday’s game was Kimbrel’s third straight appearance and second straight weekend in which he appeared in 3 straight games. He was obscenely dominant, but so was John Smoltz when Bobby Cox started to run him out there everyday during his run at a single-season saves record. What I noticed on Sunday was Kimbrel’s fastball lacked the “extra gear” John Kruk was claiming guys like Kimbrel have. While there was no visible decrease in velocity, Craig’s fastball lacked the giddy up to get by hitters’ bats and his slider did not have the ridiculous bite we've become accustomed to as Braves fans. That can only mean Kimbrel’s a little bit tired and in need of some rest down the stretch. Luckily for the Braves, they have the human balk.machine-delivery of Jordan Walden ready to step in at a moment’s notice to shut down the opposition.

Alex Wood

I will skip the whole spew about how his unorthodox and quirky mechanics are reminiscent of Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale and go straight to my own personal assessment of Wood’s latest start against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.

Despite having to suffer through the non-sense of Kruk and Orel Hershiser on commentary, I was extremely impressed with the natural movement on Wood’s changeup. That single pitch in his arsenal is so dominant that I felt it was inappropriate to call it a “plus” or “nasty” offering. I was so impressed that I went as far as to coin a new term to describe the pitch’s dominance. So let me just come out and say it. Wood’s changeup is bastardizing. It takes quality major league hitters and makes them appear illegitimate. It is bastardizing.

I can’t say the same about his other two offerings, though. While Wood’s changeup is a superb pitch, I feel both the fastball and knuckle-curve he has adopted need some refinement.

First, the fastball Wood features has some great sinking/tailing action due to his mechanics, but Alex needs to improve his command of the pitch—even if it’s ever so slightly. During the Phillies game (and I will admit it is a small sample size), Wood seemed to struggle when trying to get his fastball in on the hands of a right-hander. Aside from Delmon Young, who doesn't look comfortable against any pitcher, most right-handed hitters seemed to be diving out over the plate knowing Wood’s bread and butter is that changeup. If he is able to develop more touch on his heater and keep righties honest in off the inside corner, he’ll begin to take the next step towards being a front-line starter.

Then there’s the k-curve. I saw two sides of this pitch during his start and it was literally feast or famine. There were moments when Wood hammered the curve down into the lower part of the strike zone and forced hitters to chase it in the dirt or even had them buckling their front knees in the case of lefties. However, there were instances where he’d spin one off and it was a completely non-contested pitch—hanging and fluttering way outside of the strikezone or spiking it well short. Wood needs to work on his consistency with this grip, as I understand from Thomas that Wood picked up the grip in spring while playing catch with Jonny Venters and Kimbrel, but the excellent news is that time is absolutely on his side.

If, and it’s a big if, Wood can refine his control with the fastball and gain confidence in throwing it in on right-handers he will do just fine in the rotation in his current capacity as a back of the rotation starter. If, and its’ also a big if, Alex can gain comfort with the new-found k-curve grip heading into 2014, we could be looking at a very special pitcher who might even match lofty comparisons to said ace, Chris Sale.

Post-Hudson Deadline Plans: Guest

My friend Bryce is back with a column on what the Braves could do after the injury to Tim Hudson.  He contends that Atlanta should go all-in.  However, I worry because the last time he talked about trading a Brave, that guy got hurt.

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The Braves will likely claim they are comfortable with their current starting pitching options. They will have Brandon Beachy returning to take Hudson’s slot in the rotation and will likely hope to have Paul Maholm return after a stint on the DL for a sprained wrist. While they still boast impressive starting pitching depth, it leaves me worried about who will fill out the postseason rotation.

My buddy, Thomas, covered how Kris Medlen had pitched his way into a position to lose his starting role upon Beachy’s return prior to the Hudson injury. Despite the sudden strangle hold Kris has gained to his starting role since yesterday, it doesn’t change the fact that he has been an average pitcher in 2013—which in my eyes should not change his status of being in jeopardy of losing his starting role. Combine that with the general distrust Maholm gives me as a not bad, but definitely not good pitcher, the uncertainty surrounding Beachy’s health and production ceiling coming back from Tommy John, and Alex Wood’s obvious lack of experience and it’s easy to understand why I feel the Atlanta Braves will be playing with fire if/when they say they are comfortable with their current starters.

That said, what should the Braves do about it? Pay up for an injury-prone Jake Peavy? Go after an unimpressive Bud Norris? Roll the dice on a flat out awful Josh Johnson? Ugh. I just threw up in my mouth a little bit thinking about those options. Luckily for you, I have a better idea. One that I’m fairly certain would be unpopular on face value, but I feel would increase the chances of a championship and create interesting possibilities for the winter. Are you ready? Wait for it. Very good. I commend your patience.

James Shields. Seriously. 

The Royals have made Ervin Santana available recently and are practically guaranteeing themselves a sub-.500 finish to the season. I don’t see why they would not move Shields for the right offer considering that Dayton Moore might lose his job this winter after the flop the Royals were this season. Moore could look to save his job by picking up some buy-low opportunities and prospects from liquidating Shields now while he has a season and a half worth of retention.

So that brings us to the price tag. In prospects, I doubt the Braves would have enough to tempt the Royals. However, that is not what I feel the Royals should be looking at. Moore, in order to gain some job security, needs to get some players who can impact his major league roster immediately or within the next year and luckily for the Braves that is where the majority of their young talent is.

Start things off with Medlen to replace James Shields in the Royals' rotation. While he is certainly no ace, Medlen will give them a cheap and retainable young starting pitcher who will help them stabilize the rotation in 2014. Next, include Jason Heyward. He can slot into right field for the Royals and see if he can gain consistency in another city where he may not be expected to be the face of the organization like he was tabbed to be in Atlanta. Finally, top off the package with the exciting Alex Wood. While some may be tempted to keep Wood with all the comparisons to Chris Sale that he’s garnered with his unorthodox mechanics, his future may very well be in the bullpen. What better time to capitalize on his trade value than now when he has yet to prove if he can stick in the rotation?

With the inclusion of so much talent, we can likely kill two birds with one stone (as Thomas pointed out that Wren likes to do) and get Moore to throw in Luke Hochevar.

The Braves can still prioritize adding a left-handed reliever with Joey Terdoslavich as the main piece of bait in those negotiations and they could go as far as to search for a left-handed bench bat that can handle the infield. For funsies, let’s say we grab Oliver Perez for Terdoslavich and Luis Valbuena from the Cubs for Todd Cunningham.

Rotation - James Shields, Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Paul Maholm

Bullpen - LR David Carpenter, Anthony Varvaro, Oliver Perez, Luke Hochevar, Luis Avilan, Jordan Walden, Craig Kimbrel

Starters - CA Brian McCann, 1B Freddie Freeman, 2B Dan Uggla, 3B Chris Johnson, SS Andrelton Simmons, LF Evan Gattis, CF BJ Upton, RF Justin Upon

Bench - CA Gerald Laird, OF Reed Johnson, OF Jordan Schafer, IF Luis Valbuena, UT Paul Janish/Tyler Pastornicky

I smell a World Series contender. You’re welcome.

Trade Paul Maholm: Guest Column

Welcome to Walk-Off Walk's first guest column.  My friend Bryce has offered his thoughts on a certain pitcher and if you don't know who, please kindly read the title.  Anyway, please read and I have some comments below.  Maybe if you're nice to Bryce, he will continue to add to the blog.

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The Atlanta Braves have what can only be conceived as an enviable situation on their hands as the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline approaches. Their rotation has remained remarkably healthy through the All-Star break and no starter has posted an ERA above 4 aside from rotation’s elder statesman, Tim Hudson (4.02). With the continuing rehab of Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood lurking nearby in the minor leagues, the Braves find themselves with an excellent conundrum on their hands—an excess of starting pitchers.

Obviously, this brings up a very real question that must be answered. Who gets the boot, if anyone, when Brandon Beachy completes his rehab assignment?

I’ve heard suggestions from many different sources over the last month ranging from sending Kris Medlen or Julio Teheran to the bullpen to cap their innings loads, to sending Maholm to the bullpen for his ability to handcuff lefties, to simply sending Beachy to the bullpen for the remainder of the season.

Assuming Beachy does not suffer any setbacks in his second set of rehab starts, none of the proposed moves are incorrect. However, I’d like to shine the spotlight on a possibility that I feel should be talked about, which isn’t currently being discussed at all: Trading Paul Maholm.

I can hear the rebuttals coming, so I will address a couple of the popular retorts that will arise from this suggestion.

Are you nuts? Trade a healthy workhorse and rely on a guy coming off surgery?

While it is unorthodox (and potentially ill-advised) to do such a thing, Maholm has been the team’s least productive starting pitcher according to WAR (0.7 in 19 starts) and the least entrenched in the rotation and the hearts of Braves fans.

Beyond that, the “guy coming off surgery” is Beachy. The same guy who posted 1.3 WAR in 13 starts in 2012 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. While it is silly to expect that kind of output, the potential is something the Braves need to get back into their rotation down the stretch.

If the Braves were to need a 6^th starting pitcher between August 1^st and the end of the season, there’s also the presence of Wood. If the Braves were to need more than that, you could probably argue that they are in bigger trouble than Maholm’s presence could have solved in the first place.

Paul Maholm is average and a rental. What do you really expect to get?

The first two statements are true. Maholm is, in fact, average and a free agent-to-be. To the average observer, those two things should limit his overall value in a trade. However, those are not the only factors in play here.

The biggest factor, as always, is the supply and demand of the trade market and as always the market is hot for starting pitching.

Obviously, in a vacuum no contending team is going to opt for Maholm over Matt Garza, but luckily for the Braves that is not how things work. Only one team will be able to satisfy the Cubs in a trade for the market’s top pitching prize and once the Matt Garza domino falls, things will begin to fall into place for the Atlanta Braves.

After Garza, the market drops off steeply into an abyss of bad contracts and/or questionable health/performance issues. Could I interest any contenders in Phil Hughes? No? How about Tim Lincecum at $8M for the remainder of the season at the cost of a top prospect or two? How about Yovani Gallardo and his declining velocity/strikeout rate and contractual obligation through 2015?

While I’m not here to run down every option teams can look into, you can see why Maholm could quickly float to upper echelon of the pile of available starting pitchers when factoring in effectiveness, salary and future obligation. Maholm, if made available, would surely draw enough interest to get the Braves something useful.

So what should the Braves look for?

Luckily, we have somewhat of a precedent to look at: Scott Feldman.

Through 15 starts, Feldman posted a 7-6 record with a 3.86 ERA and 1.15 WHIP for the Chicago Cubs before being sent to Baltimore along with backup catcher Steve Clevenger in exchange for Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop. Not bad for a rental, I must say.

While I caution not to expect that much (as Maholm’s peripherals don’t match up well to Feldman’s this season) the Braves could reasonably expect to get someone useful out of a trade involving Maholm. If not a major league bench piece, the Braves could definitely get a useful young arm that could be worthwhile in the future. Maybe a prospect like Eury De La Rosa out of the Diamondbacks system; or a Brock Holt of the Boston Red Sox to come off our bench.  

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I agree with Bryce on trading Maholm if the package is there and it really should be, right?  A few days ago, as part of the Stock Report series, I wrote, "Depending on how Beachy looks, Maholm seems like a possible trade possibility."  That's AWFUL English and I should be smacked for writing a line like that, but the point remains and Bryce further investigates the point that depending on the health of Beachy, there is no better time than now to consider dealing Maholm.  The package needed is up for debate.  An exchange of rentals from one contender to another seems far-fetched, but possibly acquiring prospects, as Bryce points to, would allow the Braves to include a third team in a deal.

For instance, a contender needs to fortify their rotation.  Consider the case of Cleveland, a team whose starting rotation allows 4.52 R/G.  They could use Maholm and might surrender a package similar to the ones the Orioles gave up for Feldman.  The Braves could use those prospects in a trade to acquire Jesse Crain from the Chicago White Sox.  

That's just rosterbating, but potentially, Maholm's greatest value to the Braves could come in a trade rather than with him on the mound.  Thank you Bryce for your post and comment with your thoughts.