Reaction: John Coppolella Resigns in Disgrace

For three years, John Coppolella was treated as a wunderkind. The Notre Dame graduate who had cut his teeth in the Yankees organization before coming south, Coppolella represented a new era for the Atlanta Braves. He seemed ultra-capable in fleecing other teams of prospects and draft choices while also bringing together a talented group of scouts and assistants to comb the globe for new talent. Under his leadership, the Braves' scouting department flourished and with his background in statistical analysis, he seemed like the perfect blend of the traditional mindset and more modern approach. Coppolella gave Braves fans hope. Coppolella convinced fans to trust the process.

Around one in the afternoon on Monday morning, that trust was irrevocably broken as Coppolella resigned from his position in disgrace. While details are currently sketchy, we do know that under Coppolella, the Braves ran afoul of "rules regarding the international player market." Others have suggested domestic spending in the draft may also be involved. In addition, as Jeff Passan tweeted, "Coppolella's treatment of Braves employees" was also put under the microscope. Maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised.

It was a little more than a month ago that Ken Rosenthal penned a piece for The Atlantic about the level of discord in the Braves' front office. At the time, it seemed limited to problems between Coppolella and Hart on one side and the old guard of John Schuerholz and his guys on the other. However, the issues in the front office went beyond that as we found out today. With the general manager now out of the way, the narrative changed from the local stories of how capable Coppolella was to the tweets many national writers were not writing before the news broke. With Coppolella in charge, people like Rosenthal and Passan couldn't unleash their observations on the character of Coppolella because they needed him for quotes and news. With him gone, the tweets began to come out in droves of how poorly thought-of by the industry Coppolella was and how no one was sad to see him go.

Some of that could be sour grapes. After all, Coppolella did fleece many general managers. However, it seems to go deeper than that and it appears like Coppolella - for all of his good qualities - rubbed many people the wrong way. This is not unlike the man he basically replaced in Frank Wren and it's amazing that their dismissals carry much of the same narrative, though Wren's firing was far more simplistic and seems much more contained. Wren was hated by many people close to the Braves. Coppolella was hated by seemingly the industry he worked in. As Passan pointed out, the news about Coppolella brought "a lot of schadenfreude right now."

There were will be much more detailed reporting to come in regards to what the Braves did under Coppolella and retrospectives of his time with the Braves, but the striking thing to me is that a guy who was regarded as such a capable general manager might never work in a baseball front office again. Again, you can compare this to Wren. He found work. He may have burned every bridge possible in Atlanta, but he was still respected outside of the south. Coppolella seems outright loathed.

The word many used to describe Coppolella was "relentless." That aided him - and the Braves - in an organizational reset that saw Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel traded within months of Wren's removal. That was followed up by moving Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller, bold moves to bring in a higher-class of talent than the Braves had been able to acquire in the trades the previous winter. However, his relentless "make this happen" approach also led to deals for Hector Olivera and wasting Kimbrel's value just to get rid of Melvin Upton Jr. Coppolella was creative, that much is true. But he wasn't perfect - even when the Atlanta-area media (or bloggers like myself) made it sound like he was.

Moving forward, the Braves have what could be a highly-coveted position available should other general managers not shy away due to the questions regarding whatever punishments should await the Braves. The best case scenario is that the Braves pay fines and possibly have restrictions put on them in the international and/or domestic markets. The worst case? The Braves get all of those restrictions and fines plus lose prospects - maybe even Kevin Maitan, according to Passan's latest article. While details remain fuzzy, the fact Coppolella resigned leads me to brace for the worst. Similar to a college program giving player under-the-table benefits, the Braves may have done the same with Maitan which could force Major League Baseball to bring the hammer down. Passan also sheds light on some possible negotiating issues the Braves had with Drew Waters after selecting the outfielder this offseason. According to the report, some benefits were offered to Waters to make up in the difference between the signing bonus he received and the slot value he could have received. Both prospects rank among the top handful of position prospects currently in the Braves' system and there's a possibility these players are the tip of the iceberg.

The chance of dealing with sanctions from this mess awaits the next general manager, whoever that might be. Some have suggested Dayton Moore is a natural fit and he kind of always has been. Had he not left before Schuerholz's retirement, it likely would have been Moore and not Wren who got the keys to the castle. Perhaps Coppolella never rises to the top in the Braves' organization and perhaps we never live the darkest timeline. The good news is that even if the worst case scenario awaits the Braves, the system will continue to be stocked with talent - even if they lose some of their best ones.

Braves fans - and I consider myself one - found it easy to like Coppolella especially if you could trust the process. He marketed himself well, something that may have made it even easier for rival general managers to hate him. Whether it was candid interviews or through lengthy Q&A's with Braves fans, referred to as #AskCoppy, the former Braves general manager was far less reserved than most general managers who often only spoke during press conferences in a rehearsed manner. Zealous, but also patient, Coppolella built a collection of young talented envied throughout the game.

It was easy, with Coppy reassuring us, to trust the process. It'd work out.

It's almost ironic. This was finally the first year that we began to see the fruits of Coppolella's labor play out. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson up the middle. Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo at third. Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and Max Fried all starting games for the team in September. A.J. Minter coming out of the pen. And the best was yet to come as Ronald Acuna, Mike Soroka, and Kolby Allard all appear primed to appear in the majors in 2018. The process is getting closer and closer to bringing success to a city starving for their baseball team to once again be among the game's elite.

And it still should be that way. The Braves are still on the rise. The Nationals will still have to worry about the Braves in the coming years. None of that has changed. In their beautiful new ballpark, the Atlanta Braves will be contenders sooner rather than later.

It just won't be with the guy who helped make it happen anymore.

The Youth Movement Is Finally Here

G-Braves Media

You'd be forgiven if at times this season, you said, "where's all these prospects we traded everyone I knew for?"

The opening day lineup included five players over the age of 30. Two of the five reserves used that day were over 30. That doesn't include Emilio Bonifacio, Kurt Suzuki, Jaime Garcia, Jim Johnson, Sam Freeman, or Josh Collmenter - all regular faces over the first few months who were in the Age-30 season or older. Oh, and that definitely doesn't include R.A. Dickey or Bartolo Colon, who both hit their 30's over a decade ago. For a team that was all about the rebuild, this was an old team and a guy like Jason Motte didn't help make it any younger.

It was frustrating for casual and decidedly more-than-casual fans of the team to watch as prospects began to accumulate in Gwinnett while Adonis Garcia and Eric O'Flaherty appeared with regularity and disappointment over the first few months. You may have even lost a bit of your faith in the Braves front office and management. It's okay if you did. Like I said, you're forgiven.

On Wednesday night, we witnessed the latest example of what this youth movement might mean. Facing a playoff bound team destined to win 95 or so games, the Braves beat the Nationals with ease, leaning on a young quartet of pitchers. Sure, Matt Kemp's Grand Slam was the Sportscenter highlight, but the real story of this game was the youngins.

On the mound to begin the game was Luiz Gohara, who just turned 21 on the last day of July. Embarrassed by first-game jitters his last time out, Gohara took the mound against Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman and made the Nationals quite aware that the young lefty just might be a problem for them to deal with for the next half-decade. With control that was missing his first time out, Gohara surgically placed his 97 mph fastball wherever he wanted throughout the evening. He then followed that up with his slider, which had the Nationals swinging themselves into pretzels. He was even able to spot his much-improved changeup, using it effectively to keep the Washington hitters at bay. It was the kind of stuff that may have made Bryce Harper happy to still be on the shelf.

Anyone impressed w/Acuña's rise through the system should look @ Gohara. He did the same thing, hitting AA 7 days after & AAA 13 days after. https://t.co/WNr0uNR2cq

— Matt Chrietzberg (@MChrietzberg) September 14, 2017

He's right, ya know.

The Braves followed Gohara's outing with the 27-year-old rookie, Dan Winkler. Since he returned to the team last month, Winkler has been nearly as a lights-out as he was at the beginning of last season before he fractured his elbow. A rare bullpen piece that throws five pitches, Winkler gave his changeup the night off and worked instead off his four-seamer, cutter, and slider with a sinker tossed in there for good measure. Whatever he threw, the Nats were powerless. Howie Kendrick hit a grounder to short while Michael Taylor struck out looking. Jayson Werth saw three fastballs, including a cutter, before swinging over an 82 mph slider.

A.J. Minter got the call next and Turner singled off him. That at-bat followed back-to-back strikeouts of Matt Wieters and Raudy Reed with the latter looking just sad against Minter's slider. Randy, don't disappear. You aren't the first, nor will you be the last to look to the heavens as the slider defies physics. Minter toyed with Wilmer Difo next, throwing the infielder four sliders at 89-90 mph before throwing a 97 mph fastball that Difo could only look at.

With the lead safely in hand, the Braves called on Lucas Sims to finish it. A starter by trade, the 23-year-old Sims has been moved into a bullpen role and he drew three of the better bats in Wednesday's lineup - Rendon, Zimmerman, and Kendrick. They didn't have a chance against Sims' four-pitch mix of a 93-94 mph fastball, 87-89 mph slider, and the occasional 84 mph change and 82 mph curve. Zimmerman struck out for the second time in the game and the Braves' rookie arms struck out 12 overall.

Not to be outdone, the front two batters in the lineup, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson, reached base a combined four times, scored twice, and were credited with three runs driven in. Lane Adams, another 27-year-old rookie who keeps hitting, filled in admirably for Ender Inciarte with three hits, including his first major league triple.

On Wednesday, we didn't see Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, or Johan Camargo, but all four are 25-and-under and contributing.

This season has been trying for Braves fans - myself included. Watching Jason Motte get innings while Akeel Morris remained in Gwinnett was difficult. And watching Adonis Garcia play over Rio Ruiz was very frustrating. For a rebuilding team, the Braves of the first several months seemed awfully focused on the here-and-now while ignoring the future. That much appears to be changing. The Braves are beginning to put the kids first and it's about time.

On Thursday, the Braves started just three players over the age of 30.

It's progress. And progress, my dear friends, is a good thing.

Walk-Off Talk 1.9: The 2018 Bullpen

(Every now and then, we hold informal discussions on something related to the Braves. Today, Ryan Cothran and me, Tommy Poe, look at the bullpen in 2018.)

Ryan,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like the Atlanta Braves won’t make the playoffs this season. And while it’s fun to talk about prospects like Kevin Maitan and Joey Wentz, there will be a major league season in 2018 and the Braves need to build a roster for it. On that roster, there will be a bullpen. So, let’s take a look at what that pen might look like.

Before we start, I have to admit something. For two consecutive years, I was sure the bullpen would be a strength and I was wrong. But I can’t be wrong three consecutive times, can I? 2018 has to be the year it all comes together, right?

To help answer that question, I want to look at where the bullpen is now and what the makeup might look like in 2018. We’ll cover some of the guys we want the Braves to keep, some of them that need to be moved, some of the guys coming up from the farm system, and any specific guys we would like the Braves to target in the free agent market or via trade. I’ll start.

 Vizcaino | By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I think the pen is a dicey position myself. It has a bullpen FIP that has often hovered around 5.00 since the All-Star Break (down to 4.61 now) and while we can blame Jim Johnson for much of that, others also struggled. Even some of the guys that have been so successful are players I'm not so sure I want to rely on moving forward. Jose Ramirez has a 2-run difference between his ERA and FIP and his xFIP is even higher. Can we really count on hitters becoming outs 8-of-10 times they put the ball in play moving forward as has happened for Ramirez this year (.209 BABIP)? Can we really count on Sam Freeman doing the thing he never did before - get left-hand major league hitters out - in 2018? Can we really count on Dan Winkler's arm not falling off from just signing an autograph?

It’s clear that I have my worries about this bullpen in 2018. That said, there are a few names that demand excitement. A.J. Minter has arrived and as long as he's healthy, he's probably the most dominant reliever the Braves have. Akeel Morris's incredible changeup will be in the mix as well - if the Braves remember he's in the organization. Arodys Vizcaino continues to impress, though he’s given up a few too many homers. Still, I’ll take him compared to others. Later, I'll talk about the two or three guys I really like coming up from the minors as well.

Generally, I'm seeing a bullpen that could go either way. Guys like Matt Wisler and Luke Jackson could finally get it. Winkler could stay healthy. Ramirez could continue to battle - and defeat - the SABR Gods. At the same time, there is a probably a better chance none of those things happen. So...that's a downer.

Here’s how I currently fall on things:
Keeping: Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, Winkler (I do like the arm)
Trading: Ramirez and Freeman - if there’s anything decent out there.
Keeping, but on thin ice: Wisler, Jackson, Hursh - next spring is their last chance.
Gone: Johnson (trade, DFA, pretend he’s Akeel Morris and lose him, whatever it takes), Krol, Motte, Brothers

I got the four I am comfortable moving into 2018 with, the three who I will give the last chance to (plus, they have no trade value), and a couple I’ll trade if there’s a good deal out there. I’m dropping veterans like it’s hot. Regardless, this pen needs plenty of work. What do you guys think? Am I wrong to be this pessimistic? Or am I seeing it way too clearly?

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Hey, Tommy!

Super-excited to be doing another Walk-Off Talk, especially one concerning the bullpen as I have a whole heck of a lot to say on the matter. First and foremost, I’ll say that I think we as Braves fans finally see the bullpen turn the corner in 2018.  There’s fruit that is blossoming in front of our eyes, young men becoming staples in the ‘pen, old dudes getting squeezed out, and fringe guys looking bloody awful and naturally being pushed out of roles.  While that all doesn’t sound good, there’s much research and evidence that shows you have to fail before succeeding.  We’re there.

In the 1st section, I’m going to look at the guys that we’ve seen in 2017 1 by 1, try to find underlying reasons for their success or failures, and decipher whether I think they have a shot at the 2018 bullpen.  Ready? Here we go! Who’s a KEEPER? Who’s a HEAPER?

1. Jose Ramirez- KEEPER. 2.28 ERA through 59.1 innings. Like Jason Motte’s early “success” this year in which he was getting roped but the ball was hit right at fielders, ERA can be a fluke stat, especially when we’re talking relievers and 1-2 inning stints at a time. With Motte, every person watching could see it was only a matter of time before it blew up in his face. The day it blew up on him was our beloved country’s birthday and since then he’s had a 9.28 ERA. This brings us to Jose Ramirez.  Like Tommy mentioned above, there’s a lot that’s went right for Jose this year: low BABIP, high LOB%, but there’s also a decrease in hard-contact as soft and medium contact make up for about 70% of the total while hard comes in at 32.3% - a serious decrease from previous years. It’s also worth noting that his groundball rate has increased significantly which, when adding in that his soft/medium contact rate has increased, bodes well for long-term success. Lastly,  Jose’s had an increase in velocity as his average fastball is 97.3, when it was previously 95ish. It’s appropriate to taper expectations for Jose as asking him to duplicate his 2.28 ERA is wish-casting, but increased velo, softer contact, and the ability to keep more balls on the ground makes me think Jose can be a mid-3s ERA in 2018.
2. Jim Johnson- KEEPER. This is tough. I don’t want to see Jim Johnson in a Braves uniform in 2018, but the reality is that it’s not that easy. He’s owed 5MM and the Braves at least need to give him a shot to rebound before throwing in the towel. Give him April in low-leverage situations and let’s see if he can make that sinker sink again - otherwise, his career will be the thing sinking.
3. Arodys Vizcaino- KEEPER. While not as extreme, Vizzy has also benefited from a low BABIP and a high-strand rate, but unlike Jose he’s kept his BB-rate low and his K-rate above 9. He might not be able to sustain a sub-3 ERA yearly, but if I were betting on anyone to do so in 2018, he’d be there.
4. Sam Freeman- KEEPER. The surprise of the bullpen in 2017, there’s not much fluke in Sam’s stat line as everything seems pretty normal. His fastball/slider combo has been downright filthy and he’s under control for 3 more years. No reason not to bring him back.
5. Ian Krol- HEAPER. I’d like to believe that Ian Krol’s mishaps are all bad luck, but it’s just not true. The pitch that made him valuable last year (fastball) has stayed up in the zone this year and has gotten crushed. His K-rate has dropped, BB-rate increased, and there are at least 2 LHPs in front of him in the pecking order. He’d also be entering his 2nd year in arbitration and the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.
6. Luke Jackson- HEAPER. Really, there’s not much to like here. He’s got a pedestrian fastball that has velocity and that’s it.  Luke’s got a lot to figure out in AAA before he even becomes an average MLB reliever.
7. Rex Brothers- HEAPER. Was super excited to see Rex signed this offseason as I’d pined for it. However, it’s just not worked out. His advanced metrics show he’s been really unlucky and hopefully, he can turn it around this last month. For now, like Krol, there’s just more effective LH options available. Like Krol, hopefully, the Braves can trade Rex for something of semi-value.
8. Matt Wisler- HEAPER. For the 3rd year in a row, Wisler just isn’t missing bats. And really, it goes beyond that as he hasn’t missed bats since 2013, which was the last time his ERA was below 4. I don’t know what there is to figure out at AAA and maybe a change of scenery is needed.
9. Jason Hursh- HEAPER.There was this one outing where Hursh was running it up to 96 and pitches were darting every which way. Aside from that, it was a step back year for the former 1st rounder. Like Wisler, his best opportunity might come in another organization.
10. Akeel Morris- KEEPER. Must be the black sheep of the Braves 40-man roster as that is the only reason I see for him to not be in the bigs right now. Good K-rate, walks are coming down, and his 2-pitch mix looks pretty doggone good.
11. Daniel Winkler- KEEPER. In my opinion, this dude’s stuff is downright filthy.  I’ve wondered aloud whether Braves will keep him around due to injury, but if they do, I think he can be a serious 1-inning force.
12. A.J. Minter- KEEPER. We are getting a taste of what he can do now and it’s delicious. A serious powerhouse lefty that’s capable of throwing high-leverage innings to any hitter.

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Ryan,

We mentioned a few names that came up from the minors this season and, as you said, will probably be keepers in 2018. Of course, I’m speaking of Minter and Morris - if he ever apologizes for whatever great offense he did to the Braves front office. Seriously, do as I do with my wife, Akeel. Make your apology sound super sincere even when you have no idea why they are mad. And maybe break down and watch Empire with The Holy John Trinity. Perhaps that last thing only helps with my wife, but it’s worth a shot.

Who might join Minter and Morris next season as young arms arriving in the bigs? Let me preface this by saying that I would love to include Kyle Kinman in this group, but coming off Tommy John surgery, I think that’s wishful thinking. Also, nobody knows where they put Armando Rivero so until we find him (I’ll check the couch), there’s no real reason to include him in this discussion.

Clouse | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

One name that pops out immediately is Corbin Clouse. He logged 41 games between Florida and Mississippi this year, finished with the fourth most strikeouts in the system from those pitchers who didn't start a game, and hitters struggle to get the ball elevated against him due to a heavy 91-93 mph sinker and a wipeout slider. I'm sure this is going to be a common theme with these young arms, but in reference to Clouse, his control can waver from time-to-time. That said, when he's on with his delivery and follow-through, he's a nasty guy to deal with on the mound. Low-end projection, he'll be a left-hand specialist. But I think his stuff plays up to the righties as well. I think he could be a left-handed and maybe a little less effective version of the Tigers' Shane Greene.

Another arm that started in Florida only to finish the season in Mississippi was Devan Watts. Similar story to Clouse, except he's right-handed and has flashed very good control. Same sinker/slider combo, but with a bit more velocity and holy crap, does his sinker move. I've also seen a changeup out of him, though I'm not sure if it'll play in the majors. The Braves are downright scary with how they uncover these small college arms (Tusculum College alum) and develop them into relief prospects. He checks all the boxes you are looking for and should be in the mix come spring training.

Phil Pfeifer, unlike Clouse and Watts, has logged some time in Triple-A. He has a more prototypical heater, though this velocity won't blow you away. He'll mix in a changeup and a late breaking power curve. Sometimes, especially against right-handers, he'll slow the curve down to give the hitter something else to look at as it drops in a more traditional loopy fashion. Picked up from the Dodgers last year, it all boils down to control for the southpaw. He's quick through his delivery and gets a lot of movement on his pitches, though I sometimes feel like he's trying to get through his delivery way too fast and would be better off slowing things down a touch. Either way, there's a lot to like, but you can't walk 16% of hitters in the majors and be an effective reliever.

Finally, I have to mention the guy who came over with Luiz Gohara - Thomas Burrows. The Braves were super cautious with the former Alabama closer (Tide Roll! - right?), but I imagine the dude will be on the quick track next year after spending his Age-22 season in Rome. He struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, got a heavy dose of grounders, and kept the walks to the minimal. Do I think he'll jump from low-A to the majors this spring? No, but could he be in the mix by midseason? Oh, absolutely. He's tried-and-tested in the SEC and has continued his success into pro baseball. And have I mentioned that he's another sinker/slider pitcher. Seriously, with all these sinker/slider guys, we should have never let Roger McDowell go. He'd be giddy with this crop of relievers. Oh, well.

I know there are more arms I haven't mentioned here. Why don't you point them out, Ryan?

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I will do just that, Tommy! But might I say that of the guys you mentioned above, Devan Watts really tickles my fancy.  Some twitter guys had his velo up to 98 at the end of this year. Add to that a low-BB rate, high-K rate, and a 2nd pitch in a slider that varies in MPH and is more of a plus pitch than his fastball, and you’ve essentially got what the Braves wanted out of Shae Simmons without the arm injury history. I’m all-in on THAT!

But enough about you and your guys! What do you think this is, the Tommy show?  I want to talk about my dudes!  Ready?

Jacob Lindgren (LHP)- In this section, Lindgren, in my opinion, is by far the guy to be most excited about.  But keep your pants on, Braves fans.  He went under the knife last year with Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch.  Stolen from the Yankees, Benjamin Chase compares Lindgren’s fastball and slider to Jonny Venters, and from all the video I’ve watched, it’s on the money. Unfortunately, the pitch that likely aided in the injury is Lindgren’s calling card: a slider that simply disappears on hitters. Keep an eye on Lindgren this winter as the Braves could send him somewhere to get some innings in January, but more likely would be a return to action in Spring Training for an Opening Day audition.

Wes Parsons (RHP)- Wes has been in the organization since 2013 and at one point was a top-10 prospect in a very weak system. Now that the Braves have the best farm in the Majors, Parsons has been a bit of an afterthought as he’s been moved full-time to the bullpen. However, it seems to have done him a whole lot of good, revitalizing what seemed to be a dead career as a starting pitcher. Parsons has added a couple MPHs (tops out at 96) to his fastball and rebounded to a 3.15 ERA across 2 levels with healthy. For me though, I’d file him under the same headline as failed starting pitchers turned fringe MLB relievers with Matt Wisler and Jason Hursh. Parsons has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, even if it’s just a sliver of hope.

 Biddle | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle (LHP)- Before Lindgren, there was Biddle. Claimed from the Pirates prior to the 2016 season, Biddle was another guy that the Braves got for nothing due to recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Pirates tried to sneak him through waivers. In his first year of on-field action with the Braves, Biddle worked exclusively out of the bullpen and put up good numbers through 49.2 innings at AA. The BB-rate was below 3 per 9, the K-rate was above a K per inning, and the ERA sub-3. What’s bizarre is the fact that he’s on the 40-man and yet the front office didn’t bring him up for a cup of coffee. There are some undertones in this statement and maybe none of these are correct but I think Braves either don’t see him as a real piece, want to limit his innings, or dislike something in his demeanor. He seems like he could be a useful Major Leaguer and hopefully, he gets his shot next spring.

Caleb Dirks (RHP)-  Dirks was in the Braves system, traded to the Dodgers, and reacquired last year. Dirks is known for his deception as both video and scouting reports show jerky movements before delivering the ball, which has Benjamin Chase comping him to Jordan Walden. The problem is that is where the comp ends. He doesn’t have electric stuff, nor does he have electric velocity. In my opinion, there’d have to be a whole lot go right for him and wrong for others for Dirks to get a shot in the Braves bullpen. Like many fringe guys, his best path to the bigs will likely be outside this pitching-heavy system.

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Love “The Strikeout Machine.” Lindgren and Minter together are going to be hell on the opposition - especially the poor left-handed hitters they leave in their destruction.

Moving on, let’s talk about a couple of guys that might benefit from a switch. Specifically, Mike Foltynewicz and Lucas Sims. I’m glad I can address this subject again because Stephen stole my thunder awhile back with his column on Folty from the beginning of August and I want it back. He pointed out something that many Braves fans rather disagreed with, but that I have had a sinking feeling would be the inevitable conclusion on Folty. Simply put, he's miscast as a starter. That isn't to denigrate Foltynewicz, but over more than 350 innings, we have witnessed a few things about Folty that seem impossible to disagree with. One, he's got lethal stuff. Second, he's in stagnation since joining the Braves. He's improved, sure, but only incrementally. To put it another way, he's gone from a bad rookie pitcher to a mediocre third-year starter. And sure, we can sit here and condition this by saying Folty is really in his first full season as a major league pitcher after spending ten starts in the minors in 2015 and working his way back from injury last year, but that excuse only gets us so far.

It's not that Folty isn't useful in his current role - only that he's not best suited to be a starter. I was doing a Saturday Stats Pack less than a week before Stephen's article where I pointed out that since 2015, only two pitchers (the washed up version of Adam Wainwright and the journeyman Jeremy Hellickson) had higher line-drive rates against them. Line drives turn into hits nearly 70% of the time and many of them also become extra bases. Some, you can argue some of this is due to the fact that Foltynewicz has thrown his fastball nearly 65% of the time and it's a hard fastball. Fair enough, but even the most optimistic fan has to be worried about that line drive rate.

Foltynewicz simply doesn't have the offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. Once they time his fastball, they don't have to worry about being fooled by a changeup. They can then sit dead red and react to the slider and curve, which both are better since his rookie year, but both suffer from repeated viewings of the pitch. Further, as Stephen said a month ago, Folty has never been able to get out lefties. Perhaps if they didn't see him multiple times in the same game - and he was given a chance to unleash his heater at full strength with either of his breaking balls - Foltynewicz could have more luck.

I know it's unpopular, but in my book, it's time to embrace the inevitable here and turn Folty into the Braves' version of Chris Devenski. Like Folty, Devenski has amazing stuff and he's given the opportunity to unleash it without the fear that he needs to hold back for the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings. Moving Folty to the bullpen could hurt a rotation that appears wide open already, but a sign of good management is put your player in the best position to succeed. With Folty, I believe that he'll succeed the most coming out of the bullpen.

On the flip side, Lucas Sims has always had an arm scouts raved about, but the results haven’t been equally as impressive. He seemed to take a step forward this season with the lowest walk rate of his career in his second try at answering the Triple-A question, but also threw a lot of grooved fastballs that were hammered to deep Estonia. The strikeouts were there, but like we've seen with Sims, it was two steps forward, another step back. His first taste of the majors as a starter has been Matt Wisler-like. He's still avoiding the walks, which plagued him the last two years, but he's looked exceedingly meh. If that's possible.

One of the thing that stands out to me the most about Sims so far has been the inability to induce a swing-and-a-miss. The major league average is 10.3%. Sims, as a starter, had a 7.8% swinging-strike percentage. Hitters are making too much contact and those balls are screaming around the park.

The Braves have already announced that Sims will work out of the bullpen for the rest of the season and that might be for the best moving forward. We haven't seen a lot of Sims just as as a reliever, but the early returns are promising. Sims doesn't have the same kind of electric stuff as Foltynewicz does, but he does have lively movement on his pitches when he can repeat his delivery and arm slot - something that is easier said than done with him. Don't believe me? Check this out:

If he cleans that up, his fastball location should be better. Because his curveball is so good, he only needs to be able to locate his fastball and good things will come. In my opinion, that will come in shorter stints - the kind of appearances he had in the Arizona Fall League last year when he reestablished his value.

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Kudos on that, Tommy! I think we all at Walkoff Walk can agree that Folty would be better served to unleash all that holds him back 1 inning at a time. Could you imagine a bullpen that featured Folty coming in throwing triple digit heat? I need to see more at the MLB level on Sims, but I have a hard time distinguishing between what he brings and what Matt Wisler brings. At one point, I thought Wisler could be a stud bullpen piece with a couple of ticks in added velo. Now, not so sure. Hopefully, you’re right and Sims will take to a role in the bullpen.

But now that we are done with the in-house guys, it looks like we have enough candidates to make a pretty good bullpen. However, we all know that if a team starts the year with 15 candidates, they’ll be looking for more come April. So, is there anyone out there on the free agent market that could prove valuable in a 2018 Braves bullpen?  You bet there are and I want to take a look at some of those options.

With Minter, Clouse, S. Freeman, Lindgren, and Biddle, I think the Braves have the LH relievers in-house that they need, but there’s a few free agent RH that I’d like to see the Braves go after for 2018, but before that, let’s make a mental note: I think there’s a really big chance Craig Kimbrel comes home for the 2018 season, therefore the guys I’m looking at aren’t the top-tier, but right below that. Also, it’s worth noting that the guys I’m looking at carry a low-BB rate which is very much needed in a bullpen chock full of young, wild electric arms.

Anthony Swarzak- Fastball has picked up velo and has been downright dominant this year.  Having the best year of his career and a good time to do it.
Addison Reed- In a walk year, Addison Reed is pitching well for the 3rd consecutive year and inducing ground balls at a 40% rate.

The bad contract swap route?

A while back, I posted a waiver trade idea between the Braves and Orioles in which the Orioles brought home Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson. With Johnson tanking, I think that deal as it was is dead and gone.  But Markakis? That could still be something the Orioles are interested in this coming offseason. But maybe the Braves can knock off most of Jim’s contract and send him to them? Here’s the proposal:

Braves get Darren O’Day
Orioles get Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM dollars

O’Day has rebounded from his atrocious start in which his ERA approached 7 close to the midway point. Now, it’s a respectable 3.86. Still, he’s owed 18MM through 2019 and the Orioles could look at this as a peace offering to their fan base to start their rebuild. They’ll clear all of O’Day’s 2019 salary and pay JJ and Kakes 13MM for 2018.

Transaction Tuesday: Minter, Dustin Peterson, Evan Phillips

Very quiet week in transactions and a couple of major league pitchers start or continue rehab assignments while a major prospect is brought to the majors. Of course, things will get more active over the next few days as any waiver trades are completed before rosters expand for September and a number of DL'd players return.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 21 to August 28. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta

Credit: Fox Sports

Promoted: A.J. Minter (#24)...I went over Minter's actual promotion when it happened, but let's look at his first two appearances. Unsurprisingly, they were spaced out with three off days in between outings. I expect the Braves to continue to bring him along slowly as they have never pushed him too hard. He averaged 96.7 mph with a high of 98.3. His slider was in the low 90's range and already looks like it's going to devastate major league hitters. I don't think we'll see too much from Minter this September as the Braves monitor his usage. That said, a good last month will put him in the driver's seat for a big role on next year's roster.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Max Fried (#20)...I was a fan of the call-up until I saw how he was utilized. He was basically another long reliever rather than a guy being given a chance to pitch meaningful innings. Because of that, I'm glad he was demoted to the minors and he made his first Triple-A start last week with a solid four-inning start where he struck out six, walked two, and allowed one hit. He'll probably get a second shot in the majors and maybe even will get a start down the stretch. His chance to contribute for real comes next year when he'll battle for a rotation spot with Lucas Sims, Sean Newcomb, and Luiz Gohara.

DFA'd: Jim Johnson...Oh, wait, this didn't happen. I should erase this.

Gwinnett
Activated: David Peterson...I mentioned Sims before and he's one of three players left from the 2012 draft. Connor Lien, who has been abysmal this year also came from that class and as did David Peterson. Picked out of the College of Charleston, Peterson skipped rookie ball and over a half-dozen seasons, the righty has been fairly durable with questionable peripherals. He still has a year before minor league free agency and provides a bit of stability with nearly 80 games at Gwinnett the last three years.

SPOTLIGHT Activated: Dustin Peterson (#21)...It has been the season from hell for Peterson, who broke a hamate bone in his hand during spring training and has just never been able to get going. It's good to see that his DL trip was short as he missed just a week, but his return was basically a microcosm of his entire season. He went 1-for-4 with a single. The injury this spring has sapped him of most of his power, which was a big reason Peterson became a prospect to watch last year.

It's not all bad for Peterson. This is just his Age-22 season and he's always played young for his level, which has muted his production. The raw potential that pushed the Padres to make him the 50th overall selection in the 2013 draft is still there and occasionally, like last year, we are able to witness what it could look like. That season, he hit .282/.343/.431 while setting career highs in a variety of categories. It was the kind of season talent evaluators has waited for since 2013, yet never saw. And more, the expectation was that Peterson was just scratching the surface of the kind of prospect he could be. Would a .295/.360/.475 season be next? Would he reach 20 homers for the first time in his career? Would he push his way onto the major league team?

Unfortunately, one errant pitch this spring and a slow recovery have made the answer to those three questions a resounding "no." He'll be ticketed for a return to Gwinnett in 2017 after being placed on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5. Peterson still could end up being a nice little prospect capable of putting up David Peralta-type numbers or he might be a good bench/platoon guy. By the way, that still pays a good amount. Either way, with a crowded outfield situation in the majors and Ronald Acuna on his way up, Peterson looks lost in the shuffle for now.

Rehab: Luke Jackson...Just a short trip to the DL this season for Jackson, who last pitched in the majors on August 18. Ten days later, he worked two/third's of an inning for Gwinnett and gave up a homer and a walk. The Braves had some high hopes for Jackson, but he's been more-or-less forgetful this season for Atlanta. In 40.2 ING, he has a 16% K%, 9% BB%, a 4.36 FIP, and a 5.20 xFIP. He's given up a lot of great contact, which in turn makes him unreliable out of the bullpen. He'll be back next year, but he'll need big-time improvement to stick around for very long with so many more intriguing arms on the way.

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DL'd: Evan Phillips...A 2015 pick, Phillips reached Triple-A this year for the first time and has struggled mightily with his control as his walk rate is 15%. I guess that's not too much worse than the 11.7% he was pulling at Mississippi, but neither rate is good. Phillips gets a good amount of grounders from his heavy fastball/slider combo and if he can show more consistency, he could be a guy who pushes his way into the bullpen mix next season. One last note if you look at his stats is an 8.14 ERA at Mississippi before the promotion up the ladder. Most of that came in his first five outings, where he surrendered 14 runs. In his last 16 innings with the M-Braves, he gave up just five runs.

Mississippi
Demoted from Gwinnett: Sal Giardina...The catcher/corner infielder did okay in a three-game run through Gwinnett. He went 4-for-7, all singles, and reached base two more times via a walk and a hit-by-pitch. He returns to Mississippi, where he was hitting .248 with a homer over 119 PA earlier this season. Giardina screams "future coach" for some reason.

Florida
Rehab: Ian Krol...I was a big fan of Krol's heading into 2017 as I saw a guy who made a huge step forward during last year. However, the wheels have come off in a big way (FIP up 2.43, xFIP up almost two whole runs). Seemingly overnight, he reverted back to the guy the Tigers traded at the end of 2015. Since coming back after a trip to the DL, Krol's tossed four scoreless innings over three outings with the GCL club and Florida, but the arbitration-eligible southpaw will need to dominate in September if he has any hope of being a Brave in 2018 - and even if he did, the Braves may still pass.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Bladimir Matos...More roster manipulation involving the same cast of characters I've written about numerous times in the past.

Demoted to Danville and Promoted Back: Troy Conyers...It was Conyers' second demotion to Danville. He's yet to pitch for them.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Walter Borkovich...Yawn. Another move for roster management purposes.

GCL
Promoted from DSL: Jose Montilla...One of the few constants for a bad DSL staff, Montilla did just enough to keep his team in most games, though he had some truly uninspiring metrics (11% strikeout rate, 5% K-BB%). Hence the 90-point divide between his FIP and his 3.07 ERA. Nevertheless, Montilla deserved at least a shot at continuing to beat the metrics and his first start in the GCL went pretty well. He tossed five scoreless innings, giving up two hits, a walk, and striking out four - a new personal high. That last part had to be surprising because Montilla went seven appearances and 22.2 ING earlier this season with four total strikeouts.

Promoted from DSL: Filyer Sanchez...It's been a long time coming for Sanchez, who made his professional debut shortly after signing at the end of May of 2015. Over three seasons in the DSL, he's always maintained pretty solid numbers (2.48 ERA over 119.2 ING, 2.4 BB/9, no homers allowed), but because he doesn't have the big strikeout numbers, the lefty has been slow to work himself into the Braves' plans beyond the DSL. Finally, after 57 appearances in the DSL, Sanchez was brought stateside and appeared in his first game for the GCL Braves. It could not have gone any better. Following Krol in a rehab assignment, Sanchez tossed three scoreless innings with a K. Only an error by Braulio Vasquez kept the outing from being perfect. Vazquez would make up for it with a RBI double to break a 3-3 tie and the GCL club would hold on from there, giving Sanchez a win. Like I said, the rate stats aren't tremendous, but three years with an FIP under 3.00 deserve at least a shot to sink-or-swim.

Promoted to Rome and Demoted Back: Hayden Deal...Undrafted out of Presbyterian College, Deal was a solid reliever in the Big South before finishing up his collegiate career as a starter during his senior year. Following the draft, Billy Best, one of the Braves scouts who keeps finding guys no one else wants, kept Deal from putting too many plans in place for a post-baseball life by signing Deal after a bullpen session. A fan of the Braves growing up. Deal's staple is control - something that has continued professionally. He was hit up pretty good in the GCL prior to a promotion to Rome last week as the SALLY squad was desperate for a fresh arm. The outing couldn't have gone better for Deal, who faced one over the minimum during a career-high four innings. He also struck out four, one off his career-best. Deal and the aforementioned Borkovich are easy to root for as undrafted free agents and to this point, both look like their professional dreams are hardly over.

DSL
Activated from the restricted list: Erick Abreu...A year after being suspended for Stanozolol, Abreu made his return just in time to get into one game for the Dominican Summer League Braves before their season came to a close. He went three scoreless innings and got the win in relief after the Braves plated 17 total runs from the third inning on. Signed in January of 2016 as an 18-year-old, Abreu pitched in 16 games in the DSL last year. He got plenty of K's (31 in 31 innings) but also walked a small village (27 total). Seems to be another in the line of players who fit the "teach him some control before he kills someone" category. Will turn 20 on New Year's Day so his spot in the organization is dicey, but it would appear that they kept him through a year-long suspension for a reason.

A.J. Minter's Climb is Complete

We can thank J.B. Moss for this freak out.

Moss, a former Braves farmhand who was released earlier this season just a year after being selected in the seventh round, took to twitter last night to say this:

My best friend is headed to THE SHOW!!!!! (I'll let you guess who it is till it comes out) LETSSSSS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

— JB Moss (@J_Moss11) August 23, 2017

It did not take long for Braves fans to make a connection. Before he was drafted by the Braves, Moss was a big part - when healthy of the Texas A&M baseball program. In 2015, Moss played in 52 games for the #13th ranked Aggies. Also on that team, before he went down with injury, was A.J. Minter. He was dominant over four starts in what was supposed to be a big move to the rotation after 40 K's in 37.1 relief innings the previous two years.

U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Shawna L. Keyes

That injury I spoke of? Of course, it's the Braves so you know what follows an injury to a pitcher - Tommy John surgery. It quickly eliminated of any hope of Minter being a first round selection, but the Braves were still very interested in the lefty. Brian Bridges, the Braves scouting director, was interested in Minter with the #28 pick before the injury. Ultimately, they grabbed Mike Soroka there. When their competitive balance draft choice, the #75th overall selection came around - a pick they gained by trading outfield prospect Victor Reyes to the Diamondbacks at the start of the season that year - the Braves could wait no longer. In addition to Soroka, they had selected prep stars Kolby Allard, Austin Riley, and Lucas Herbert. Now, they were getting the cherry on the top - Alex Jordan Minter.

The Braves knew Minter's 2015 was done. But while they figured their top selections would need plenty of time to mature and develop, Minter was seen as a guy who could shoot up the system once healthy. There was some internal debate whether he projected better as a starter or reliever. Much of that depended on a changeup that was fringy at best. Perhaps it wasn't a bad pitch, but when your heater and slider are that good (and they are), any average pitch will look that much worse. Less than two weeks after his selection, Minter signed for $814,300, or the assigned slot for the #75th pick.

There was a great deal of anticipation related to Minter's debut. The 2015 draft class was shaping up as the Braves' top class in years and that was before Minter had thrown a pitch. Atlanta refused to push the kid, though, and even though he made his debut on May 5 of last year with Rome and stayed healthy throughout the year, Minter would only pitch 31 times between that first game and the end of the season. He never had less than two days between games and threw over 20 pitches just seven times. Nevertheless, Minter flashed the potential that made Bridges want to spend a high-value first rounder on him before his injury. With Rome, he toyed with the South Atlantic hitters, allowing just two hits, a walk, and striking out six over 6.2 innings. After just a handful of games, he received his first promotion. It wouldn't be his last of the year.

With Carolina, Minter continued to show that he was too advanced for A-ball. Over eight games and 9.1 innings, he gave up just three hits and walked four. In the process, he struck out ten. With 13 games in the tank and 16 innings overall, Minter had not allowed an extra-base hit, walked just five batters, and struck out 16. He retired his Mudcats jersey and took his talents to Pearl, Mississippi. Finally, Minter was given at least a challenge. He gave up a double and a run in his second outing. On August 24, he had his worst outing of the year, surrendering four runs on two singles and two walks while failing to finish at least one inning of work for the first time all year. Those two outings were the only times all season he was scored upon. In 18 games with Mississippi, he gave up those five runs and walked six, but struck out 31. He went on a strikeout binge between July 9 and July 18. He faced 15 batters. Only one of them got a hit (that double I mentioned earlier). All 12 outs were recorded via the strikeout.

It was the kind of dominance that makes everyone sit up and notice you. As season previews were penned about the Braves 2017 bullpen, Minter was often mentioned as an x-factor. If he pitched well in camp and earned a promotion, he could have a big impact on this year's bullpen. However, that hope quickly turned to fear as Minter struggled with inflammation in his left arm. He was shut down after one pitching session and reported numbness in his fingers and hand. Braves fans, who have seen many of their favorite pitchers fall under the knife multiple times, feared the worse. However, the diagnosis of radial tunnel syndrome wasn't serious and while Minter wouldn't be in the mix for an opening day assignment with the team, once the inflammation went away, he could be back on the road to a possible debut.

He amped up his rehab and was ready for his first outing shortly after the Florida Fire Frogs inaugural season began. On April 11, Minter made his season debut with two strikeouts in a perfect inning. However, two days later, he hit the DL again with a groin strain. Some start, huh? Two months later, he returned for the Fire Frogs and tossed a perfect inning while striking out the side. Four days later, he made an appearance with Rome before returning to Florida for three more games. All told, he threw six innings in A-ball and allowed just one run on a solo shot by the Yankees fine second baseman prospect, Nick Solak. It was the first homerun Minter had given up in his career. He also struck out 10.

The next step was a three game-run with Mississippi. Over a week with the M-Braves, he added three more innings, the first two walks of the year, and three strikeouts. Finally, on July 5, he made his Triple-A debut. After an okay start, Minter ran into a four-game stretch where he gave up at least a run in each game - and six total earned runs. However, after a rough outing on July 23 (four runs, one earned, only two outs recorded), Minter did something for the first time. He pitched in a back-to-back. The next night, he retired all four batters he faced with a strikeout. In fact, since July 23, Minter has worked nine games with nine innings and nine strikeouts. The six walks in that time frame...is a bit much and uncharacteristic for Minter.

His last outing came on Monday. He threw a scoreless inning and worked around a single and a walk by striking out three batters. It was the first time he had struck-out-the-side in Triple-A.

What's the scouting report on Minter? Since college, Minter has worked with the Braves to try to clean up his delivery. It's a lot smoother now and he gets through the motion with much less wasted effort. He delivers out of a high 3/4's release point and when I have seen him struggle with his mechanics, his release point has been a bit of a tell. It drops a bit too much, which leads to not just less explosive pitches, but weaker control. While his delivery is a lot cleaner than it was in college, he's still a high-effort pitcher on the mound. This limits his ability to work beyond one frame at a time.

His heater has the great velocity you look for with consistent mid-to-upper 90's heat. He'll work around the plate and is not afraid to burn a fastball by a hitter up in the zone before nailing the outside corner with a low heater. It's not just his control with the fastball that impresses, but the movement. It has a bit of natural sink and run to it which makes it difficult to barrel up. It appears he has a cut fastball, but that might be changing speeds with his fastball because the movement on the two pitches isn't that dissimilar. What will pay the bills, though, is the slider. It has the nasty sweeping action you are looking for in a slider with good depth to it. It's a swing-and-miss pitch that lefties throw their bats at while righties swing over the top of it as it bears down on their ankles.

Minter is a quick worker on the mound and seemingly unfazed by whatever is happening at the moment. He goes after hitters without fear and the fastball/slider combo has high-leverage inning quality.

The biggest question with Minter is his health. This is unfair to some degree because he's young, had wonky mechanics at A&M, and got hurt. The Braves were extra careful with him as a result and the groin injury was just one of those things that happens. He could be healthy and excellent moving forward. But until he can show that, the concerns about his health will remain.

At worst, it's hard to see Minter fail to find a role in a major league bullpen - even if it's as only a left hand specialist. Lefties have managed just eleven hits against Minter in the minors and with his profile, it's difficult to see major league lefties having much more success than that. Will he reach his full potential that has often included the tag, "closer-in-waiting?" It's quite possible. With maturity, consistent mechanics, and more experience learning the art of pitching, Minter would have all the tools to be a high-leverage arm who could anchor a pen. As long as he's able to stay on the mound, it's all there for him. It's going to be fun to watch.

As an aside, the Braves sent Max Fried down. He'll likely join Gwinnett, though he could return to Mississippi. Fried struggled badly with his control in his new role as a reliever for the Braves. They got a look at him and he'll probably return sometime in September. simply wasn't able to find his curveball consistently, which led to some bad outings. A few starts in the minors might help him adjust once more.

Should the Braves Target Kimbrel After 2018?

AtlSwag69 (CC BY SA 3.0) via Wikipedia Commons

From the moment Craig Kimbrel was traded to the Padres hours before the 2015 season was to begin, many fans have wondered if the homegrown star closer might one day return to the Braves. As Atlanta has tried to replace Kimbrel with Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, and Arodys Vizcaino, Kimbrel has remained outstanding for first San Diego and now Boston. This season, he's pitching the best baseball of his life with a 12 K/BB ratio and a 1.04 FIP. Could the Braves try to entice their former All-Star to return home to Atlanta?

First off, there's a small problem with even dreaming of Kimbrel returning next year. If the Red Sox had no problem paying Kimbrel $13 million this season, the smart money is on them picking up his option for 2018 which will pay him exactly the same. That would mean that Kimbrel's Age-30 season will be next year as the closer for the Red Sox.

There's the other problem - provided the Red Sox are not able to extend Kimbrel before the end of 2018, he'll hit free agency as the best closer on the market. A few other current closers will be available at the same time, though that's always subject to change as relievers are a fickle breed. Regardless of how many closers are on the market, none are Craig Kimbrel - though Andrew Miller is highly impressive even if he's not being used as a closer and will command a significant salary. Furthermore, when Kimbrel becomes available, he'll be aiming for a contract from a market that last winter gave Aroldis Chapman $86 million over five years and Kenley Jansen $80M. Provided Kimbrel hits the market healthy and pitching well, he'll at least command a similar average annual value. Both Chapman and Jansen were entering their Age-29 seasons while Kimbrel's first season of a new contract will be his Age-31 season. That might make it harder to get a fifth guaranteed season, but an open market might figure in big here and Kimbrel's not only a good get for performance, but for his name.

Back to the Braves. Will they be interested? You bet your sweet behind they will. The bigger question is how interested and maybe the even biggest question is - should they be?

Back to the first question, a lot can change between now-and-then. Atlanta has a vast collection of impressive young arms and one of them could turn into their unquestioned closer before the end of 2018. A.J. Minter's name has often been thrown around as a closer-in-waiting. The team's incumbent closer, Vizcaino, is team-controlled through 2019. The Braves have a plethora of other arms, many of them currently starting, that could also be in the discussion by the end of 2018 should they move to the bullpen. Regardless, John Coppolella has seemed to hint at Kimbrel being someone of interest for the Braves in previous #AskCoppy sessions so that could suggest to some degree how interested Atlanta would be.

Once again, the biggest question - should Atlanta be interested in signing Kimbrel - is much more interesting to me. Mainly because I'm going to say no. It's not because I don't love Kimbrel. I mean, what fan of the Braves doesn't love Kimbrel? The man was an absolute beast in Atlanta and I, like most of Braves Twitter, loved to see people have a conniption over Kimbrel's hat on a nightly basis. And I don't think there's much reason to believe Kimbrel won't continue to be a dominant reliever for the foreseeable future. As I said, relievers are a fickle breed, but when someone does what Kimbrel has for the last seven years, you take notice. Getting to 30 saves once or twice in the majors isn't that much of an accomplishment. From 2007 to 2016, there were 168 instances of pitchers reaching 30 saves or more - which comes out to roughly 17 pitchers a year. That's more than half of the teams in the major leagues each season. Yet, only ten pitchers reached 200 saves - or roughly six-and-a-half years of reaching 30 saves. Just 28 others saved 100 games. Being able to accumulate saves year-after-year is a much rarer thing. Craig Kimbrel has proven that he's not Juan Oviedo or Tom Wilhelmsen. He's on another level and predicting continued success is not only prudent, it's what the projection systems actually say. While Baseball Prospectus long-term forecast is very conservative, it doesn't have Kimbrel reaching a 4.00 DRA until his Age-35 season in 2023. For what it's worth, he's never had a DRA in a full season over 2.21 so I imagine Kimbrel will beat those projections by a considerable amount.

If I love him so much and believe he's going to remain very good, why do I hope the Braves pass on the prospect of bringing back Kimbrel?

It's simple economics. The Braves opened this year with a $122 million payroll. That could climb in 2018, but how much is debatable considering the good, but not great attendance this season in SunTrust Park. Apparently, just having a new park doesn't guarantee sellouts. I don't foresee the Braves cutting salary moving forward, but I also didn't believe their payroll would match some of the big boys in the league when they moved to Cobb County. There often is a bump, but payroll just doesn't skyrocket because of a new park. Unless you're the Marlins and that lasted, oh, a year.

Ignoring Atlanta's commitments for 2019 and moving forward, a closer of Kimbrel's ability would take up between $15M and $18M of payroll - possibly more. For a $130M payroll, that's somewhere in the range of 12% to 14%. That's a lot of money to spend for a player only pitching 60 times a year. Bringing back in those future commitments we just ignored, the Braves will pay, short of a trade, nearly $60M for Matt Kemp, Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, and Ender Inciarte in 2019 and adding a big closer's salary will hamstring the entire budget.

And then there's this - is Kimbrel at $15M that much better than Cody Allen, also a free agent in the winter of 2018-19? Or, for that matter, Vizcaino? There's no simple answer to that question. Kimbrel's a better pitcher than Allen and Vizcaino, but finances have to be considered. Think of it this way - would you rather have Vizcaino at $8M and a starting third baseman at a similar rate or would you rather have Kimbrel? With a limitless budget, you might go with Kimbrel and worry about the third baseman later. But the Braves are playing with the salary setting on so that has to be considered.

There's also the argument that paying relievers that much money is foolish in general considering that they are so rarely used properly. The idea is that your closer is your best reliever, but so many teams - even smart ones like the Red Sox - utilize their closers in very restrictive ways. As the Braves found out in the 2013 NLDS, what's the purpose in having a Kimbrel in the bullpen when he's waiting until it's the "right time" to bring him in? Meanwhile, a guy making the major league minimum is blowing the lead just so that you can save your closer until the ninth inning. To get the best value out of a pitcher like Kimbrel, the Braves would need to use their bullpen differently and be willing to surrender save opportunities for higher-leverage situations earlier in the game. At the same time, they would need to justify utilizing a $16M closer in the seventh inning to fans who only value relievers by how many saves they have.

The Braves making Kimbrel a target after 2018 isn't a bad thing. He's an amazing pitcher who could be in line for a handful or more 2 to 4 fWAR seasons after he concludes his current contract - which is no small feat for a reliever. But the finances and the way he'll be used (which will limit his value to the Braves) make signing Kimbrel a bad investment.