Transaction Tuesday: Ventura, Winkler, Wright, Ramos

What a busy, busy week for the Braves. Some of the moves, we reported on as they happened, but many more occurred as the Braves brought back a guy from the Mexican League, demoted a few underperforming pitchers, and continued to aggressively push rookie league players up a level.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 1 to August 7. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
We've reported on a number of these moves already so I won't go too far into them anymore. To read about Ozzie Albies' arrival in the bigs, you can click here and here. The latter link has information also on Lucas Sims, who came up with Albies last Tuesday. We also addressed the callup of Max Fried and the trade of Sean Rodriguez this week. Surprisingly, the week after the trading deadline was much more interesting than the week before.

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Recalled: Jace Peterson...Peterson's Triple-A numbers took a nose dive over the recent few weeks, but he's probably happy to be back in the majors anyway. He's been bad this season with Atlanta - there's no doubting that. His BABIP is 30 points below where it should be and an 11% line-drive rate is criminally low. Whiffing on 11.5% of his swings aren't helping, either. It's tough being a bench guy in the majors - especially when you aren't used to it. Hard to play yourself out of a slump when you may only get five plate appearances in a week. Peterson might become Super 2 arbitration-eligible this season, which would make the Braves even less likely to bring him back in 2018 without a strong finish. He has added two pinch hits since being brought back, making him 3-for-3 in his last three pinch hit appearances counting the homer he hit before being sent down in mid-July.

Activated: Jason Motte...At some point, the Braves need to move on from Motte. I assume they are hoping he'll attract enough trade attention with a 3.81 ERA in 33 games and his veteran presence, but Motte's peripherals are not solid beyond his typical good control. While the 35-year-old (who the Rockies are paying nearly $5M to not pitch for them) takes up space on the major league roster, younger arms who could be in the mix for the 2018 roster are losing out.

Traded to Reds: Randy Ventura (#34)...When this trade was announced, many were quite upset about it. Like me in high school, they struggled to let a crush just slip away and not obsess over it. To be sure, Ventura is a prospect. He came on the scene back in 2017 when he hit .329/.421/.394 with 55 steals in 58 games. But that was in the DSL, which is notorious for making stars out of average players who crash-and-burn when brought stateside. Ventura hit .284 last year with a good OBP of .358 but stole just 15 bases. He's almost doubled that total this year with a .294 average before the trade but has also struck out a lot. And after a great start, he has tapered off considerably. Since May 15, Ventura had a .273/.317/.309 clip with 59 Ks in 267 PA (22%), which is not a good profile for a player with his tools. On the plus side, he's still very young (just turned 20) and the 29 steals along with the ability to play a decent center field have value. My thing, though, is the $1.25M the Braves received in international signing bonus space the Braves added is well worth what amounts to the seventh or eighth best outfield prospect in the system when it comes to raw potential. As Bennett Hipp tweeted, "This fan base is going to implode when actual good prospects are traded." Ventura was a nice prospect who demanded at-bats, but did he have a higher ceiling than those who he was blocking? Debateable, but I lean toward no.

Optioned: Jason Hursh (#42)...Starting with his cut from spring camp, Hursh has been optioned six times this year. His numbers aren't that great and considering the Braves' refusal to give him a longer look, Hursh is a prime candidate to be designated for assignment this winter to open up a spot on the 40-man roster. It's unfortunate because Hursh has improved notably over the 2015-16 version that looked like a wasted top pick, but Atlanta doesn't appear to have that much faith in Hursh.

Optioned: Micah Johnson...I understand why Johnson was optioned. Just not so sure I agree with it. He got three pinch-hit appearances while up with the Braves, who are making the conscious choice that Danny Santana is a better fit than Johnson. It makes sense. Santana plays more positions and is a switch-hitter. I don't have to like it even if it makes sense.

Optioned: Akeel Morris (#29)...Again, I get why Morris got the boot back to the minors - he had options and others didn't. I just disagree that sending Morris to Gwinnett is best for the Braves. I don't know if Morris will be in the long-term picture for the Braves, but I wouldn't mind finding out. The guy struck out 28% of opposing hitters in the majors. To me, that buys some time. Sure, his xFIP was really high and he allowed an insane amount of fly balls, but I'd like to see if those numbers normalize with more time. At the end of the day, this year's Braves aren't going to the playoffs. We know that. With Sims and Fried in the majors, seems like a good time to also have some of these more borderline Top 30 prospects up trying to help their cause for the 2018 roster.

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DL'd: Ian Krol...Ah, that tricky oblique strain. It landed Bartolo Colon on the DL in June and shut down Arodys Vizcaino last July. Odd that all three were struggling at the time. Krol has been just abysmal this season - a year after looking like a potential building block for the Braves. I'd like to say it was the increased cutter usage, but it's simply bad pitching. You can't go from pitching in the zone 47% of the time to 40% and not suffer as a result. Depending on how long he needs to recover from his oblique strain, Krol, who is arbitration-eligible, may have thrown his final pitch for the Braves.

Gwinnett
Signed and assigned to Gwinnett: Manny Barreda...Three days before Christmas back last winter, the Braves signed Barreda. He earned a mention in one of my offseason articles on minor league signings (the same one with Lane Adams). Another former Yankees arm, Barreda has also pitched in the Brewers organization and spent most of the last two years with Tijuana in the Mexican League on loan from first Milwaukee and now Atlanta. His debut with Gwinnett last week was his Triple-A debut and he struggled with his control, which is a recurring problem. When he's on, Barreda can be very good. Example: he threw a no-hitter last winter for Los Mochis. But he's not frequently on and that's why, in his eleventh season, he's finally made it to Triple-A. He works off a low 90's fastball with some breaking stuff that often decides just what kind of game it will be for him.

Activated: Kyle Kubitza...It's been a trying season for Kubitza, who was awful through two months of action but did hit .297/.394/.429 over the final 30 games before landing on the DL. No longer a prospect, Kubitza cycles between the corner infield and outfield positions along with some time at DH.

Rehab: Dan Winkler...Rehab 2.0. Winkler memorably (sadly) fractured his elbow last April after looking like he might be a surprise pitcher out of the pen for the Braves. He finally got back to action in mid-June, but his pitches lacked the Winkler stuff and movement that made the Braves spend a Rule 5 pick all the way back in 2014 on him. The Braves asked and were granted permission for an extended rehab stint and shut Winkler down for a month before he returned on Sunday and threw a two-strikeout inning out of the pen for Gwinnett. Winkler's one of those guys that the Braves would love to get a look at over the final handful of weeks to see if they want to keep him. He still has over a month-and-a-half left to satisfy his Rule 5 obligations. Interestingly, he's probably going to be arbitration-eligible because of all of the time spent on the major league DL accruing service time.

DL'd: Rhiner Cruz...A Rule 5 pick by the Astros back in 2012, Cruz got into 72 games with Houston over two seasons before being cut two years later so that he could make some real money in Japan. He then spent last year in the Mexican League before signing with the Braves this offseason. The righty with great velocity has been a solid arm out of the Gwinnett pen this year with 54 K's in 43 innings and pretty decent control to go with it.

DL'd: Caleb Dirks (#40)...Coming into 2017, Dirks had spent all of nine days on the DL. This is now his second trip to the DL and he missed nearly a month before. A lot of us that follow the Braves' minor league system had high hopes that Dirks might spend time in the big league pen, but his numbers haven't been nearly as dominant (4.23 FIP/3.85 xFIP) as we've grown to expect from the young righty. In four games since returning from the DL, Dirks gave up ten hits, six earned runs, walked one, struck out three, and surrendered three homers in five innings. This from a guy who gave up three homers in 61 innings all of last year. Hopefully, this trip to the DL helps.

Mississippi
Assigned: Connor Joe...I mentioned the Sean Rodriguez trade already. Just wanted to point out where Joe landed after the trade. He'll probably make his Mississippi debut today as the M-Braves play a double header.

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Promoted from Florida: Josh Graham...ERA for a reliever can be incredibly misleading. Just ask Graham. His ERA with Florida was sitting at 4.69. This was mainly a product of two awful outings back-to-back in late May and another stinker on July 16. He gave up five to the Palm Beach Cardinals before Clearwater lit him up for a quartet of runs six days later. A month-and-a-half later, he gave up five more in one outing. That's 14 ER in 3.2 ING. Take those three out and his ERA over the other 28 outings? A 2.23 ERA in 44.2 ING. That's more fitting for a guy with a 27% K-rate, 9% walk rate, and no home runs given up while he maintains a 54% groundball rate. That all comes out to a 2.32 FIP/2.97 xFIP. Now, you can't completely take those three games away - they happened after all - but they help add context to the fact that Graham deserved this promotion. The former 2015 fourth rounder struck out two in his Double-A debut last week.

Activated: Luis Valenzuela...Acquired for the since-retired Jonny Gomes, Valenzuela has spent much of his time with the organization on the DL. He was hitting the ball extremely well when he was acquired but has an OPS in the two seasons after the trade of around .670. He can play up the middle along with sliding over to third base, but unless the bat again starts to show, Valenzuela is just a guy in the system.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Mauricio Cabrera...Things just keep going from bad to worse for Cabrera. After missing some action, Cabrera was demoted to Mississippi and walked three in his first outing there. His second outing didn't go much better, but he did throw a perfect frame on Saturday. It was his first perfect inning in over a month. Out of options, Cabrera will need a strong August to avoid potentially being designated for assignment this offseason.

DL'd: Michael Mader...After not appearing since June 23, Mader finally landed on the DL this week. It's been a year since the Braves acquired Mader from the Marlins and in 34 games (six starts) since, he has 76 K's in 86.2 innings and quite a few walks as well. Rule 5-eligible after the season, the Braves will have an interesting choice to make with Mader. With his fastball/curve mix, Mader could make for a decent lefty reliever if he develops just right. But Mader hasn't really opened any eyes and his walk rate has doubled since last season along with a declining groundball rate. It makes me think Mader will be left unprotected where a team might bite on the prospect of using Mader as a LOOGY.

Florida
Promoted from GCL: Kyle Wright (#3)...How far the Braves push Wright this season remains to be seen. After three starts in the GCL, Wright arrived in Florida last week and made a pair of starts there. His debut went perfect and he allowed no baserunners over two innings. His next game out didn't go quite as well, but he still allowed just a single and walked one. Both times, he was limited to two innings or less than 30 pitches. After 103.1 high-profile innings with Vanderbilt, chances are Wright won't throw much more than a few dozen innings - if that. Regardless, every time out, he has the focus of Braves Country as fans wonder just how close Wright is to putting his hat in the ring for a spot in Atlanta.

Demoted from Mississippi: Junior Rincon...Another week, another transaction for Rincon. He's been in the organization for just a month, but he's quickly become one of the always-on-the-move pitchers who fills in wherever he's needed. Rincon, who has also pitched in the Marlins and Brewers' organizations, carries a 4.63 ERA over 11.2 innings into this week, but on the plus side, he's K'd 17.

Demoted from Mississippi: Matt Withrow (#45)...At first, this was a "rehab assignment," but the next day, there were reports Withrow had been assigned. One of those designations could be a typo or it could have something to do with a less-than-thrilling rehab appearance with the Fire Frogs. In a 2.1 inning appearance out of the pen, Withrow allowed five baserunners. He limited the damage to just one run, but retiring seven and putting five guys on won't amaze anyone. Withrow had a bipolar-like beginning to the year before hitting the DL. First five starts: 2.08 ERA. Next five starts: 7.25 ERA. He threw fewer strikes and what strikes he did throw were sent sailing to the outfield and beyond. Withrow is a talented pitcher with an inconsistent feel for the strike zone. Perhaps he'll find it in Florida.

DL'd: Joe Rogers...A fifth rounder by the Tigers all the way back in 2012, Rogers hasn't been good since '15. At 26 years-old with a 6.29 ERA between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi, it's a surprise he still has a job.

Released: Andrew Daniel...This is the progression of Daniel's OPS from 2014 to now: .917, .752, .686, .597. Now, I'm not brilliant by any means, but that seems bad. Signed to give Mississippi some depth, Daniel washed out there before a recent demotion to Florida, where he continued to struggle. An 11th rounder by the Angels back in '14, Daniel might have to try his luck in independent baseball or dive into a new trade.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Walter Borkovich...Good to see the Borkovich continuing to develop. An undrafted free agent out of Michigan State, Borkovich tossed nine quality innings for Danville - which followed four quality innings in the GCL - before getting promoted to single-A. In his first game with Rome, he nailed down a save, though he did give up four hits in two innings. Obviously, when players don't get drafted despite playing high-quality conference ball, there wasn't a lot of interest in them. Nevertheless, Borkovich seems primed to do well in the lower minors because he matches pitchability with a fearless attitude. It's the more competitive upper levels of the minors where I wonder if Borkovich will continue to be successful. Well, until then.

Promoted from Danville: Taylor Hyssong...An 8th rounder last year, Hyssong has been at Danville now for 20 total games between two seasons with nothing really standing out about his numbers. Drafted more to save money (signed for $10K, $174,400 less than the suggested slot), I wrote this about Hyssong at the time. "Nothing really stands out in his numbers." That remains the case.

Promoted from Danville: Bradley Keller...A 15th rounder back in 2015, Keller has been slow to develop. Keller was a callback to the old Braves' way of drafting toolsy players and trying to teach them how to play. He struggled through a 2015 introduction to pro ball in the Gulf Coast League and looked completely lost last year as he struck out 122 times in 318 PA between the GCL and Danville. However, this season, things have started to click. Keller hit .306/.360/.597 over 33 games with the D-Braves. That includes an 11-game run before his promotion in which Keller hit .400 with six doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He added his seventh homer of the year in his first game with Rome. Keller still strikes out a good amount, but he's starting to hit the ball with much more authority. Could still turn into an interesting enough prospect and with Ventura traded, there are more at-bats for guys like Keller.

Danville
Promoted from GCL: Jeffrey Ramos...Very few people took note of Ramos heading into this season. One of the lesser-known names coming out of last year's mega J2 class, Ramos was also one of the few to immediately get into game action. It may have been too much for the 17-year-old as he hit just .230/.283/.333 over 33 games in the DSL. This season, he joined many of the other J2 class members from last year in the GCL and outshined most of them - and a good portion of the league. Over 30 games, he hit .325/.374/.556 with 14 extra base hits, including a half-dozen homers. A left fielder by trade, Ramos will go as far as his bat takes him and early impressions are it might take him quite a long way.

Demoted from Rome: Troy Conyers...The 23rd rounder in June, Conyers dominated the Gulf Coast League before bypassing Danville to join Rome in late July. He made three long-relief outings there and kept pitching well so I assume this is more roster management than anything.

Demoted from Rome: Tucker Davidson...There are two reasons a guy with a 2.99 FIP and 3.4 K/BB gets demoted from full-season low-A ball to Rookie ball. Either the Braves needed a roster spot in Rome or Davidson is getting punished for whatever reason. Or...there is a third reason that might work here. Davidson might be hitting a bit of a wall and they are giving him a breather (or flat-out shutting him down). Davidson worked entirely out of the bullpen until June 27. His next seven games were all out of the rotation. At 76.1 ING, he's thrown a shade over 45 innings more than he tossed in 2017, which could be influencing this roster move. Either way, Davidson has pitched well this season and there was a reason to believe he'd receive a promotion rather than a demotion.

GCL
Promoted from DSL: Gabriel Noguera...The Braves scout as well as anyone out of Venezuela, but Noguera's story is a little different. His name came up in the 2013 J2 class as a Top 50 prospect, but he didn't sign until last year. Earning praise for a "low-effort delivery" and a good fastball, Noguera finally made his professional debut in his Age-21 season in the Dominican Summer League. He looked very good again there and while his 0.87 ERA in 31 innings was soft, his strikeout-an-inning stats were impressive. He made his first start stateside last week and went four quality innings while allowing a run. He's not a big prospect, but at 21, it wouldn't surprise me to see Noguera on the Rome Braves roster when 2018 opens.

Assigned: Alex Aquino...Almost fitting that in the week Ventura's name shows up in this, Aquino finally joins an active roster. Aquino and Ventura were two of the four Braves' farmhands involved in a late August car accident in the Dominican Republic. He's the only one still in the system now. A right-hand hitting infielder, Aquino hit .274/.329/.378 with the GCL squad last year and hit his first professional homerun. It was a bit of an improvement over his 2015 DSL campaign. Despite joining the team last Tuesday, though, he has yet to play in a game.

Rehab from Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Did you forget he was in the system? You're not alone. Collmenter opened the season on the active roster after pretty much earning a spot with three smoke-and-mirrors starts last September. It did not go well for Collmenter and he was sent to the minors in late May, but he hit the DL soon after and did not appear in a game for Gwinnett. Last Wednesday was his first appearance since May 24 and he gave up three hits, a run, a walk, and picked up one strikeout in three innings of relief.

DSL
Nothing outside of losing Noguera.

Walk-Off Talk 1.7: Talking About the Midseason Top 50 Prospects

To add context to this year's Midseason Top 50 Prospects, the Walk-Off Walk contributors sat down for an informal discussion about their picks, some of the surprises, and a few of the guys who could rocket up the charts by the end-of-the-year countdown. Tommy Poe, new contributor Stephen Tolbert, and Ryan Cothran are all part of today's Walk-Off Talk.

It might help to have this year's Top 50 open in another window to provide context. If you think we ranked one guy higher than the next, feel free to chime in with a comment.

One last note. All but one of the pictures in this article come via Jeff Morris. Remember to follow him on Twitter for continued superb pictures to attach faces to many of the prospects.

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Kyle Wright

Tommy Poe: Let’s get right into this and start with #1. Officially, Ronald Acuña took home the top spot in our rankings as he was the only player to rank first or second on all three lists. However, he only made #1 on Stephen’s. Ryan had Ozzie Albies as his top guy while I went with Kyle Wright. This trio of players easily pulled away from the field with an average ranking between 1.67 and 2.33. Fourth place averaged 5.00.

My first question is how did you arrive at your choice? And being the nice guy I am, I’ll answer first.

Let me start by saying that each of these incredibly talented players is majorly deserving of such an honor. The sky's the limit for Acuña and that might be selling the guy short. Ozzie Albies is a trade away from taking over second base, a position he may hold for the next decade. Having three legitimate players for an organization’s best prospect is a testament to both how deep this organization is and how off-the-charts talented this trio is. To hype these guys up just a little bit more - all have a legitimate shot to be in the majors by the end of 2018.

But, and forgive me for saying so, I’m the only one who made the Wright choice. (/ducks)

I won’t disagree with you guys that either Acuña or Albies has a higher ceiling than Wright. What I will say is that Wright has the highest floor of any draft choice the Braves have selected since Bob Horner. Now, the Braves have absolutely no reason to rush him to the majors like they once did with Horner, but in my mind, we don’t just reward projection, but the floor a prospect has and especially when that floor is quite elevated. Acuña and Albies should be - and I think will be - excellent players in the major leagues, but they cannot match the likelihood of reaching their potential like Wright.

The man comes into professional baseball with three plus pitches and a strong possibility of taking his weakest pitch, a pretty decent changeup, and transferring it into a plus pitch as well. His simple-and-easy mechanics are repeatable and don’t put undue stress on him. Mark my words, gentlemen - the Braves will look back at the 2017 draft and thank their lucky stars four other teams passed on Wright.

Both of you ranked him third on your lists. Why did your guy - either Albies or Acuña - get your pick as the number one prospect in the system?

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Ronald Acuna

Stephen Tolbert: Hey guys! Glad to be a part of the team.

Let’s start with this; I love Kyle Wright. Getting him at 5 in the draft was thievery. For my money, he’s the best pitching prospect in the system. And in this system, that’s quite an accomplishment. But Wright has two things working against him being at the top.

One, he hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro ball yet and until I at least see some work against other pro’s, I can’t crown him #1. Two, he isn’t Ronald Acuña.

When I think about the number one overall prospect, I think “who can be the best player in the game?” “Who has that type of potential?”  And among the 3 obvious choices, Acuña was the only one who fit that profile. A 19-year-old, legitimate 5-tool player already destroying Double-A is as rare as it is impressive and when you have that guy in your system, he’s #1. Now, he's headed to Triple-A to unseat Albies as the youngest player in the International League.

And if you watched the Futures Game, you saw it all on display. The show he put on in BP had national writers tweeting about it, and then, once the game started, you saw the incredible defensive talent he’s going to be. Coming up as a CF with plus speed, he clearly has the skills to play all 3 OF positions and he showed off his 70-grade arm a few times during the game.

Maybe the most impressive part of the night, though, was the multiple 10+ pitch AB’s he put up against some of the nastiest pitchers in MILB. Taking 98-mph fastballs just off the plate. Spitting on hard-breaking off-speed pitches in 2-strike counts. Basically, he was doing things a 19-year-old shouldn’t do against pitchers that advanced.

Acuña is dynamic, powerful, advanced, and the most gifted overall player to come through this system since Andruw. Truly a rare talent. In my opinion, he’s clearly the #1 prospect in the Braves’ system and eventually, in all of baseball.

But I’m open minded--so Ryan, let’s hear why Ozzie Albies is really the top man in this incredible system.

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Ozzie Albies | Grant McAuley - Follow on Twitter - used with permission

Ryan Cothran: Hey you 2 scoundrels! I'm on Whidbey Island off the coast of Washington and maybe it’s just the island vibes soaking in, but man I love the heck out of Ozzie Albies. He's been my guy for quite a while (not in a Robert Baker sense) and I'm going to show him some love, but first off, it's slanderous for us to talk number 1 Braves prospect and not discuss Kevin Maitan. He’s already wreaking havoc in the GCL and maybe we look at this discussion in a year and think how big of buffoons we were for not including him, and that brings me to my next point and Stephen has already made it: Whether it's the Wright or Wrong call, I cannot give the number 1 title to a guy that hasn't thrown a professional pitch, or in Maitan’s case, limited exposure.  Sorry Kyle, your poise, promise, 3-plus pitches and potential power arm will have to settle for 3 on my rankings.

From there, it was a wash between Acuña and Albies, but what has been occurring in the past month for 20-year old Albies pushed my ranking: he's destroying the ball. Doubles, triples, home runs, he's hitting them and he's doing it from both sides of the plate thanks to Chipper! From the looks of him, I'd guess he's added 20 pounds of muscle in the last year, has put more emphasis on successful steals rather than just running because he's fast, and from what I've read and saw, he's developed some more arm strength. He's sharpened his game all around at the minors highest level and he still can't buy a beer in Georgia. I'm overly excited about what the Braves lineup could feature in 2018 with Albies in it and am very anxious for Brandon Phillips to move on so we can see Ozzie in the show I think he's a seasonal 4 WAR player that could be an all-star 4-5 times in his career.

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Tommy Poe: All valid arguments. I think we all agree that all three guys are going to help shape the future of the Atlanta Braves over the near future. The Top 5 was completed by the aforementioned Maitan at #4 and Kolby Allard at the fifth spot. Allard actually matched his fellow 2015 Draft Class member Mike Soroka for the fifth-best average, but gets the fifth spot due to a tiebreaker which I stole from Outfield Fly Rule’s Andy Harris. In the event of a tie, the player with the highest individual ranking gets the spot.

#7 was an interesting pick. Both Ryan and Stephen had Sean Newcomb around that spot in their rankings, but I went against the grain and stuck with my preseason belief that Sean Newcomb was underrated and put him in the fourth spot.

On Newcomb, since it was my pick, this is probably building on where I had him ranked preseason. At number two. As in, the top non-Dansby Swanson prospect in this system. Nobody agreed with that ranking at the time, but I felt the improvement he made over the second half of 2016 could not only be sustained, but built upon. I was little disappointed with some walk totals with Gwinnett as I felt he was improving in that regard, but I still hold firm in my belief that Newcomb's combination of power, stuff, and pitchability was being underranked by other sources. As such, I rank him as the second-best pitcher in my rankings - a distinction that only changed because of Wright.

His time in the majors has been mostly solid, though he ran into the buzzsaw known as the Astros and was charged with four runs against the Nationals over his last two starts. Nevertheless, he's reached the seven-strikeout plateau in half of his six starts and walked two or less in four of those games. That's something that the Braves can possibly build upon moving forward.

I do understand the criticisms, but control is the thing I'll give a break to when it comes to pitchers. Give me a guy who has issues sometimes finding the plate, but has the weapons to be a #2 starter (possibly #1) if he can find the plate more consistently and I'll be a fan. But the great thing about this organization is whether you want to go with Newcomb, Allard, or Soroka as your second-best pitching prospect in the system - as the three of us did - I believe you can make justifiable arguments about all three.

On the subject of pitchers, Stephen, you had Joey Wentz #17 in your rankings. Ryan and I both had him near the tail end of our Top 10. You were the only one to rank both Touki Toussaint and Kyle Muller ahead of him. Any particular reasoning or just liked him less?

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Stephen Tolbert: Before I jump back in, I do want to make the point that this system is almost unfathomably deep. Guys like Joey Wentz being in the 10-20 range shows how difficult it can to rank all these guys and that often, a guy is where he is because I like a different guy more, not because I like that player less.

Drew Waters

This is what happened with Wentz on my list where he came in at #17. There were a couple players I felt had higher ceilings that I had to put in front of him. A couple of those guys being Drew Waters and Cristian Pache - both tooled out OF who are having early success at their respective levels.

In general, I prefer position players to pitchers because of the severe volatility pitching prospects experience. That means when I get to a group of prospects I feel all around the same level, I lean towards the bats.

Joey is a terrific 3-pitch guy who probably has a bit more pitchability than some of the other guys in the system. But ultimately I see more of a mid to back-end SP as his career path and there were some other guys I project higher.

But being in the top 20 of this system means you're a serious player and very likely have a major league career ahead of you. So Joey at 17 on my list means I still think very highly of him. What surprised me was Ryan's ranking of Touki at #22. That down on him, Ryan, or just high on others?

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Ryan Cothran: I agree that it's pretty easy to rank a top-10 in this organization and have a near consensus 10 guys, whether they're up or down a few spots. After that, it's tricky. One ranking that I had that will likely draw criticisms by many is Touki at 22. Honestly, I just don't get it. He has a curve that’s known as the best pitch in the Braves system, a mid-90s fastball, a working change, and his ERA is pushing 6. Sure, his K-rate is up, his BB-rate down, but he's now in his 4th year in professional ball and the ERA is still going the wrong way. How is this happening? Sure..blame the defense, blame the umps, or just state the obvious and say he's developing, but regardless of the reason, I just cannot look at him and continue to think Starting Pitcher. With that in mind, Geez Louise, he could be a dominant bullpen stud but that just doesn't warrant a near top-10 ranking in the best system in the bigs. For whatever the reasons that Touki and Ricardo Sanchez have to not put it all together, there's guys like Bryse Wilson and Patrick Weigel who clicked and are big jumpers in the org. Hopefully, we will see the same click happen for the aforementioned two.

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Tommy Poe: I definitely do hope we see them start to put it together more as well, Ryan. For now, I want to spend a little time going over our individual rankings and what stands out compared to the rest. At #16, I had Alex Jackson, his lowest ranking. I don't doubt the offense is for real because I was on board with the trade when it happened considering he showed improvement last season. I thought the Mariners were short-sighted in the move. I do wonder if he'll stay behind the plate, though. From people I've talked to (non-scouts, I grant you), they aren't so sure and that's what prompted me to rank him a bit lower. If he's forced back to the outfield, he's still a good prospect - just not as hot. Still, to rank #16th in this system is a pretty nice accomplishment - especially when left for dead by the M's.

I also had Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson a bit lower than you guys. Similar to why Stephen went with others over Wentz, I felt Muller and Wilson's ceilings are not as high as guys I put ahead of them. Either that rationale or, as was the case with Patrick Weigel and Lucas Sims, I valued their closeness to the majors over Muller and Wilson. I still love both pitchers, though, and look forward to being wrong.

Derian Cruz

I had the lowest rank of Derian Cruz, who I plugged in at #31. I think he's going to hit and flash very good speed, but I am really worried about his defense. From watching him a few times with Danville, he doesn't have soft hands and is frequently forced to rush a throw as a result. My placement is similar to Jackson's in that if he doesn't stay at his current position, his value declines. Right now, I'm looking for reasons to believe he'll stay at shortstop and I have too much concern he'll get shifted to the outfield.

Speaking of speedy guys - this time who already play in the outfield - Randy Ventura had one of the most diverse rankings in the whole thing. I had him #43, Stephen ranked him #34, and Ryan squeezed him into the Top 30 with a #27 placement. And here I was concerned I was ranking him too highly because he has slowed down somewhat as the season has progressed.

I didn't include recent draftees like Freddy Tarnok and Drew Lugbauer on my list. Both were guys who would have showed up if we went beyond Top 50's and because both landed on your lists, each gets a place in the WOW Midseason Top 50. I do like both, but I haven't seen enough of Tarnok to give him a Top 50 spot and Lugbauer might struggle to have a position moving forward. That said, in most systems in the majors, they would be consensus Top 50 prospects - if not Top 30.

I'm glad Jason Hursh made all of our lists, by the way. He's a guy who has shown a lot of improvement over the last year. I'm still not sure he'll be a high-leverage reliever, but there's something here now that I felt was gone when I left him off my preseason Top 50. Really want to see how his career develops moving forward.

Stephen, what are some of your observations about your Top 50 compared to Ryan's and my versions?

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Stephen Tolbert: First, just to respond to one thing you mentioned, I put  A. Jackson as high as I did because I love the bat and the arm. I haven't heard anyone reputable express any optimism that he can stay at catcher but his profile still fits a corner OF spot and man can he hit.

Ok on to mine. Looking at all 3 lists, the first thing that jumps out is Drew Waters. You and Ryan both had Drew 25 while I had him 15. If I'm being 100 percent honest, I almost had him in my top 10. Switch-hitting OF with speed, projectable power and, early on, what seems like a good feel for hitting. Yeah, I'm all aboard. My hot take/bold prediction for next year is once Acuña and Albies graduate, Maitan and Waters will be the 2 best hitting prospects in the system.

Another notable difference I see is you and Ryan both had Ray-Patrick Didder in the mid 30s while he didn't make my top 50. Yeah, I just don't see it with Didder. It's 20 power with a 27% strikeout rate in A ball. He gets by on some fluky HBP numbers that won't hold when he faces pitchers with better control at upper levels. Outside of that, I see an org OF who can run but really not do much else. In a lesser system, he may crack the top 50 for me, but certainly not the best system in baseball.

Alright, Ryan, who were the players you saw differently than Tommy and me?

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Ryan Cothran: Admittedly, I've seen very little of Waters, but have liked what I've seen. For me, it's the unknown that's near impossible to rank but I appreciate the boldness and sure hope your ranking turns to be the more accurate.

As far as my guys, I just cannot get enough of Bryse Wilson. Dude’s fastball stayed 93-96 throughout a complete game shutout and his positive demeanor has been discussed in numerous outlets both inside Braves fam and out. His arsenal is developing, he's striking out a lot of people while walking guys seldom, and he's only 19 years old. While he might have a bit more to learn in comparison to Allard and Soroka, he's right on their heels and I'd expect a promotion before year's end.

Another guy that I likely have an unhealthy fondness of is Randy Ventura. While he's cooled off recently, he can flat out hit. Combine that with above average speed, superior baseball instincts, and a good glove and he's likely a good 4th outfielder. However, that's not how I see him. I think there's some power there and room for growth in that body. I'd keep an eye on him these next few here's to see if 16-20 of those singles become doubles and  6-7 of those doubles and triples become homeruns. If that happens, there could be some serious under the radar hype here.

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Tommy Poe: Finally, I want to go over the five guys you feel might be climbing up the rankings by the end of this season. These can be guys who made your Top 50 or weren't on the list at all. You can also say how you feel they will rise up the WOW list as others come around on your way of thinking.

Bryse Wilson, #17 - I do believe I ranked him lower than you guys because he was ranked really low in my preseason Top 50. He jumped about 20 spots but probably didn't jump enough spots. He'll be an easy Top 20 guy for me by the end of the season and might be in the Top 15.

Drew Waters, #22 - Stephen's aggressive #15th rank might prove to be matched by my own by the end of the year. That's not only a product of my stealing from Stephen :), but the guy's talent is ridiculously high. I'm seeing some people put him as the third-best position prospect in the system behind Acuna and Albies. I'm not there - yet - but he's definitely climbing.

Abraham Gutierrez

Abraham Gutierrez, #34 - I had him ranked the lowest at #39th, but I do believe he'll be in the Top 30 by the end of the season. He seems like the catching prospect with the best chance to not only be a plus at the plate but also behind it.

Drew Lugbauer, #45 - Though I do have concerns about him finding a position, I'm also massively intrigued by the idea of a power-hitting righty-mashing utility player who can cycle from catcher-to-first-to-third. If he can also get some time in left here-and-there, I'm jumping on the hype train big time.

Jean Carlos Encarnacion, UR - First off, Encarnacion is why the Braves need another minor league team or two. I don't know if they truly believe he can't play shortstop anymore or can't find any playing time there for him while playing on a team with Livan Soto and Kevin Maitan. Either way, the current 1B/3B is off to an excellent start in the GCL with six extra-base knocks over his first 51 PA. He was a late signing in the 2015-16 international signing class and I think the Braves found yet another solid bat out of the DR who could rise in a hurry. He's got a big frame to grow in and one that might lead to a good deal of power.

What are some of the guys you think will climb the charts moving forward, Stephen?

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Stephen Tolbert: I like the Juan Carlos Encarnacion pick, Tommy. Here are my top 5 potential climbers:

OF Drew Waters, #22 - (see bold prediction above) Drew was #15 on my personal list but could easily be my top OF prospect in the system once Acuña graduates.

SP Max Fried, #21 - I think Fried has a much pure talent as any arm in the org but his results haven't shown it. If his second half this year matches his second half last year, he could be up in the top 10.

OF Dustin Peterson, #20 - Dustin would've easily made my top 15 coming into the year but the wrist injury in Spring Training has zapped him of his power which is a key part of his development. If he gets that back, he's probably closer to #10 than he is to #20.

C Lucas Herbert, #36 - Lucas has really progressed this year in all aspects of his game. The only reason I didn't have him higher is I just want to see more of it. If he continues at his current pace, he's a top 20 prospect.

OF Braxton Davidson, #38 - I still believe in Braxton. He hits the ball hard, he hits it in the air, and he knows how to take a walk. I love those three things in a prospect. He just needs to put it all together. If he does, the raw talent is there to be big time prospect.

What say you Ryan?

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Ryan Cothran: Man, I hope you're right on Max and D-Pete as they're two guys that are easy to like.

Izzy Wilson, #42 - Seriously talented youngster that could be the next big thing. Has had disciplinary issues in the past but if he can put his focus on baseball, Braves will have something.

Bryse Wilson, #17 - On the heels of all our other young pitchers but maybe not for long. Shelby Miller in the making?

Max Fried, #21 - Bad first half but has tools and talent to be a very good starting pitcher. Think we will see a rise in stock for the 2nd time.

Drew Waters, #22 - Could he be the Braves steal of the draft? Too early to tell, but if he keeps going at current pace, he'll be a serious mover.

Justin Smith, UR - Tommy and I both liked this pick in the draft and Matt Powers of Talking Chop did as well. A JUCO guy with the ability to do everything well. Look for him to adjust then explode.

Walk-Off Talk 1.2: Checking In With the Top 50 - Part 1

In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at rising and falling prospects using the Walk-Off Walk Top 50 preseason list as a guide (link takes you to posts about the Top 50). At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section. 

Wilson (left) with Kyle Mueller | Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

RyRy,

It’s hard not to be smug when talking about the farm system the Atlanta Braves have put together. From trades to acquire even more talent to the smart utilization of the draft to maximize both quality and quantity to a recommitment to the international market - and even holdovers from the Frank Wren era like Lucas Sims and Ozzie Albies - the Braves organization is full of not just depth at a number of positions, but talent that has impact potential. Today, I wanted to go over some of the guys that have increased their stock over the first two months of the season. At the same, we can’t ignore the players who are falling down the prospect rankings. To be fair, some of that is due to the first category - the guys pushing their stock up. But there are a few - yes a few -, that have struggled to this point.

I’m going to use my Top 50 as an outline here. Hey, since you’re a full-fledged member of Walk-Off Walk, I guess you are going to have help me with the midseason rankings. Just know that while I value your opinion, if it doesn’t agree with mine, it’s wrong.

Just kidding. Maybe.

Let’s get on with it. #46 Bryse Wilson is kind of the forgotten arm from last year’s class and not only because I keep forgetting to spell his name with an “s” rather than a “c”. A fourth-round pick, Wilson dominated in the Gulf Coast League, but remained firmly in the shadow of Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. Yet, it was Wilson, not Muller, that jumped from the GCL to the South Atlantic League to open 2017. He hasn’t been as good as Wentz and Anderson according to FIP, but he’s still been damn good. A lot of pre-draft analysis strongly hinted Wilson could be a bullpen guy, but the Braves wouldn't have picked a high school arm that high (#109) to be a bullpen arm. They thought they saw something in him that maybe others didn't. So far, they might be right.

He’s one of the guys I expect to climb up the midseason list considerably. While I have only done a little prep work for it so far, do you expect a Top 30 placement for Wilson?

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Tommy “Edgar Allan” Poe,

When looking at a list that has some of the best pitching prospects in the game, it’s easy to see Bryse Wilson and simply pass him over.  However, he’s making a believer out of me with a fastball that sits 93-95 MPH, can climb as high as 97, and has staying power throughout his starts. Did I mention he’s still two years away from being able to buy a beer legally in the states? Like many young ones, he’s self-admittedly needing to develop his offspeed stuff. He features both a slider and a changeup, but neither are a plus pitch yet. With so many starting pitchers seemingly in front of him on the depth chart, one could see Bryse being converted to an elite relief pitcher where he can feature his fastball that I’d bet could run up to triple-digits in due time. With 58.2 innings of really good baseball under his belt at Rome, accompanied by both a low-BB rate and a high-K rate, I’d say he’s most definitely a big mover up the list on a loaded system, and could be a quick mover after the 2017 season.

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Cothman,

I agree about Wilson completely. I feel almost ashamed that I under ranked him, but that gives him the opportunity to slide up these rankings considerably by midseason.

On the other hand, #36 Connor Lien is likely completely out of the Top 50. He, like Randy Ventura, was a guy I grew to love in 2015. Unlike Ventura, though, he’s only gotten worse. Back in ‘15, he slashed .285/.347/.415 with incredible defense. While it would have been difficult to predict stardom based on his numbers, there was enough value here to predict a 2-3 fWAR season once Lien was established in the majors.

But that hope is a pipe dream now. He wasn’t terrible during an injury-shortened 2016, but has fallen off the map this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 40%. Even Rob Deer and Mark Reynolds are telling him to make some contact. Things were so bad that he spent a week at extended spring training to try to clear his head. Unfortunately, it appears like Lien’s prospect status has completely eroded or am I wrong?

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Tommy,

I cannot argue here, but I can also brag on myself a bit: I never bit on Lien and I have Chris Johnson to thank for that.  The year of Lien’s breakout was 2 full years after the infamous .394 BABIP. Lien’s was .379 in 2015, and even with that, he didn’t break an .800 OPS. However, guys around Tomahawk Take were blowing up his defensive abilities and that combined with his speed made him a nice under the radar prospect. When Braves chose to leave him unprotected for the Rule-5 draft and he went unclaimed, it told me that no matter how great of a defensive Gandalf he could be, he’s just not going to be a big league commodity. As one can see this year, when his BABIP gets in the “league average” range, the offensive results are poor. You’re right in removing him from the list. Hopefully, for Lien he can turn it around...baseball is hard.

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Mr. Obvious,

Indeed, baseball is very hard. Sometimes, I admit I let my personal feelings overrule the logic side of me. I loved watching Lien in 2015. Still holding out hope he sells his soul for another BABIP-inflated season. It was kind of fun to watch the first time.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

Onto a happier subject, Cristian Pache turns 19 next November, yet he's handling the South Atlantic League like a guy a few years older and with more experience than 57 games at rookie level. When Pache and Derian Cruz signed back in 2015, it was Cruz that garnered more accolades, but early in their careers, it's Pache who looks like a real prospect.

He's still learning to utilize his speed, but he's got the wheels to do some big things. So far, he's stolen 15 bases and has been caught just four times. But what really intrigues me is the potential pop in his bat. He has a big leg kick before driving forward in the box with a bat that explodes through the zone. It hasn't produced much in terms of real homerun power to this point, but the smart money is that he'll start popping a few in the near future. I had him ranked #26th coming into the season and he might not break into the Top 20 just yet - which is not a slight against him, but a representation of the talent throughout the system. Regardless, I have been impressed with a guy who only has five plate appearances during his brief career against a pitcher younger than him. Oh, and hey, he has elite center fielder potential in the field. Not that the Braves don't already have one of those, but it's great to keep cranking them out.

Despite the big leg kick, he's only striking out about 19% of the time against older and more experienced pitchers. The improvement in his walk rate (5.5% to 8.3%) is also exciting is as I look for progression in rate stats as a tell-tale sign of a rising prospect. So, my question is this, Ryan...how much power do you project Pache developing? I think he can be, at worst, a .150 ISO guy if he progresses like we hope he can. Is that too much to expect?

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TomCat,

The body, the frame to grow into, the speed...it’s all there. But really, the numbers aren’t. In 465 plate appearances, not a single dinger.  What gives? I’ve got a theory, but let’s hold off a bit.

The positives, there’s much to like here as his speed, defensive efficiency, and ability to get on base is what’s driven his prospect rankings and like you stated, these skills are standing up* against competition older than him (it seems like we say this about every Braves prospect these days).

*Albeit, his .707 OPS leaves me wanting more and his .364 BABIP likely isn’t long-term sustainable

But the power? Many would think just by looking at his numbers that he must be a wiry kid, but that’s not the case. He’s 6’2, muscular, 185 pounds, and growing...so again, where’s the power? In the samples that I’ve seen (you can see it on YouTube, but I also subscribe to MILBTV so I’ve seen a15-20 more ABs than the norm) Pache seems to have a problem with weight distribution. So many times (to the point it seems intentional), he gets caught out on his front foot which all but crushes his ability to drive the ball. At this point, I feel it’s a habit he has to break that he probably developed early in his career to utilize his speed and get out of the box quick turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. If he can stay back on the ball and generate the needed power from his legs, look out! Adding power to his game is the last thing that’s holding this kid back from being a 5-tool athlete on the heels of Ronald Acuna, but it’ll take a lot of time in the cages to work out an old habit that’ll likely take a while to die hard.

Random Prospect Sunday - Randy Ventura

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

There's speed and then there's Randy Ventura speed. The hyper-quick 19-year-old has some attractive skills - some of which made Jose Peraza and Mallex Smith intriguing to Braves' fans over the last few seasons. Will Ventura follow their path to the majors? Hard to bet against him at this point.

Born July 11, 1997, Ventura has the rare honor of being born on the same day as a Tom Glavine stinker. Glavine surrendered eight runs on that day to the Mets, getting beat up by the likes of Manny Alexander, Rey Ordonez, and Bernard Gilkey. That wasn't Ventura's fault, of course. A Dominican Republic native, Ventura was born in Pimentel, a city that hasn't been quite as active in producing major league talent as others like San Cristobal and Santo Domingo.

Ventura was not a highly regarded youngster as the 2014-15 international signing market opened up. Rather than signing in July like many prospects, the switch-hitter waited and waited until February 13, when the Braves finally signed him. Atlanta was under new management and had recently grabbed international guru Gordon Blakely from the Yankees. Perhaps Ventura was one of his guys. Either way, the soon-to-be 18-year-old quickly endeared himself to the organization. Typically, prospects spend a year at the international complex sharpening their skills, but Ventura was assigned to the Dominican Summer League just four months after signing. He was given the starting center fielder assignment and opened the season in the leadoff spot. Hell of a few months for him.

The scrawny kid predictably showed little in terms of power, but he didn't need to hit doubles. His legs turned singles into doubles via the stolen base. In 58 games, Ventura hit .329 and swiped 55 bases in just 64 attempts. It took fellow speedster Mallex Smith 67 more games - and a steal in the season's final game - to overtake Ventura for the organizational lead. To be fair, stolen base totals are inflated in the DSL by raw pitchers who don't hold runners well and equally raw catchers. Nevertheless, that many steals in that short amount of time is still an accomplishment. Over the last ten years, only two other players have reached the 50-steal plateau in the DSL and just one has surpassed Ventura's 55 steals.

Ventura also showed tremendous plate discipline with 35 walks to 27 strikeouts. Again, we should preface this by saying DSL pitchers aren't exactly renowned for control. Nevertheless, when a player on-bases .421, it's enough to open up some eyes. It definitely opened mine as I ranked Ventura #25th
in my preseason Top 50 prospects. But I had nearly added Elias Arias to my Top 30 rankings the previous year after a good year in the DSL. Arias has since been cut.

Clearly, that didn't happen with Ventura, but he started 2016 with a few extra eyes on him and not all of that was related to his production in the DSL. The previous year, for all of its great accomplishments, ended with a car crash right before the season ended. He suffered a left shoulder blade injury in the crash. Months later, he was assigned to join the Gulf Coast club to open 2016. He would no longer be the everyday center fielder - Cristian Pache was more highly regarded handled the position until he was promoted. Venture also...just wasn't as effective. He continued to walk at a nice rate (11%) but the ball stopped finding as many holes. His wOBA fell from .404 to .340.

On the plus side, Ventura was young for the level and 166 of his 227 PA came against pitchers older than him. He also finished with a .380 OBP over his final 80 PA. However, the weapon that had garnered him so much attention in the first place - his speed - wasn't showing up. He swiped just 15 bases - 40 fewer than the previous year - and was caught six times. Even accepting that GCL catchers are better at cutting down runners than DSL ones, it was still a considerable disappointment. His speed did appear on August 6 when, with two outs and the bases loaded, Ventura finished a five-run rally that began with a Griffin Benson homer with a homer of his own - a Grand Slam. Not only that but an inside-the-park Grand Slam homerun. Ventura finished the game with five ribbies.

Expected to receive a promotion to Danville, Ventura was a mild surprise in that he skipped past the Virginia stop to begin 2017 in Rome. So far this season, we have seen the very good and the suspect from Ventura. On the suspect side, his walk rate has been cut in half from the roughly 12% he carried over his first two seasons. In addition, his strikeout rate is up about 6%. His ISO has also declined nearly by half. These are not promising trends. On the bright side, he's hitting a cool .333, good for third in the league, and has swiped 18 bases, one off the pace for the league lead. He hasn't homered and has just five extra-base hits, including one triple. One last negative is that his .410 BABIP is unlikely to continue.

With three seasons of data, we can make a few observations on Ventura. Sticking to the theme, he's fast. Freaky fast. He possesses good bat control and even though the strikeouts are climbing, I think he'll be a high contact guy. The plate discipline decline this season is worrisome but could disappear by the season's end. He has good instincts in the outfield and only the presence of Pache is limiting him to right field rather than center, where he has the skills to play but Pache is simply better. Ventura's arm isn't bad, but I haven't seen much to suggest it's much of a weapon.

The big question for Ventura moving forward is if he'll ever develop an ounce of pop in his bat. A career .057 ISO typically will ruin any hope a player has of progressing no matter how fast he is. You have to flash some pop here-and-there at least. Bill Ballew of Baseball America (subscription required) thinks there is undiscovered pop in his bat. If he can smack the occasional homer and increase his extra-base ability, he'll have enough intriguing skills to climb the prospect ladder.

Ventura is a fun prospect to watch because he already possesses a top-grade tool and a couple of other B-grade tools. What he needs now is to increase his lowest grade tools to a more respectable level. As he attempts to do just that, enjoy watching the player that he is now because every time the bat is in his hands or he's on base, something eye-popping could occur.

More Random Prospects...
Evan Phillips (5/28/17)
Kevin Josephina (5/14/17)
Jacob Webb (3/5/17)

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: Next 5 Looking In

This week begins the long countdown to the #1 prospect on the Walkoffwalk list of the Top Atlanta Braves Prospects as we head into the 2017 season. While next week and the weeks that follow will focus on the rankings, this week focuses on five interesting prospects who were guys who just missed my Top 50. I want to give them their own article because it would not surprise me if all five are in the Top 50 by midseason.

I should note that these were not necessarily my #51-#55 guys in my rankings, but the five I believe have the most "wow" factor to make a leap.

*All ages are as of opening day, 2017.

Corbin Clouse, LHP, 21 years-old, @corbin018

It's not often that a 27th rounder starts pushing his way into the Top 50 prospects of a well-respected system a half-year after being drafted, but Clouse nearly did that for me. Drafted out of small Davenport College last June, Clouse put up one of my favorite numbers of 2016 during a four-game swing in the Appalachian League where the difficulty level was on easy. In 6.2 innings, he had a -0.24 FIP. That's right - FIP can go negative. Of the 22 batters he faced, he struck out 16 and only allowed two to reach base (both via a walk). He then finished the season with Rome and while his dominance wasn't superhuman, it was still dang good (39% strikeout rate, 2.60 FIP, and one home run allowed in 23.2 innings). While lefties dreamed of getting a hit off him (he only allowed three to them), righties slashed a miserable .137/.250/.192 off him. Yes, he's just a reliever, but those numbers are absurd.

But Jaime Richmond once had absurd numbers, too. Richmond, who later was traded for Mark Kotsay, is my control for not getting too excited about rookie-league pitchers. Back in 2006, he had a 2.16 FIP over 67 innings. He never made it to Double-A. That's not an indictment on Clouse, who I do like a lot. Clouse rarely pitched until his senior year of high school and then pitched for the largely unknown NAIA program at Davenport. That alone makes him easy to root for. Clouse works off a low-to-mid 90's two-seam fastball and a slider that was impossible for lefties to touch last year and buckled a lot of right-handed batters' knees. He also has a four-seamer and a changeup, but both pitches need more developing to be a weapon.

The Braves have shown a willingness to be aggressive with college-age arms - especially relievers. Matt Marksberry made it to the show in his second full season while A.J. Minter climbed from low-A ball to Double-A last year. If Clouse continues to perform, he could be on a similar trajectory.



Josh Graham, RHP, 23 years-old

As a member of the Oregon Ducks, Graham was a catching prospect looking for at-bats. Instead, he became a reliever in his junior year and flourished in the role. Oregon liked him so much that they moved him to the starting rotation for a half-dozen starts and over 65 innings, Graham K'd 64 despite never throwing in a college game until that season. The success convinced Brett Evert, a former top draft pick by the Braves turned scout, to lobby hard for the Braves to select the 6'1" righty high in the 2015 draft. Atlanta did just that, selecting Graham with the 120th overall selection (4th round) and signing him for an over-slot $500K.

Graham would be used as a reliever in his first outing, but started his final five games of 2015 for Danville. Overall, he K'd 21 in 17.1 innings with just three walks. With mid 90's heat and an improving collection of secondary offerings, Graham entered 2016 as a name to watch. He would miss the first month of action before appearing in 35 games from May until the end of the season. His final 16 games were especially good as he K'd 20 in 16.2 innings while allowing just five earned runs.

The Braves are still not sure what they have with Graham considering his rawness. When you combine his Oregon days, he has pitched just 124.2 innings since high school. He hasn't induced a lot of grounders to this point and the four homers he allowed last year could be considered slightly troubling. With that said, Graham has a great shot to rocket up the ladder if he can get more lefties out and keep the ball in the yard at a better clip.

Here is a look at his pitching mechanics from his Ducks days.



Dylan Moore, Infielder, 24 years-old, @d_moore22

Picked up in the overly complicated three-team trade that sent Jeff Fancoeur to the Marlins, Moore is a fringy right-handed hitter without a position. That said, he can play enough positions to be a pretty interesting player moving forward. Drafted by the Rangers in the 7th round of the 2015 draft out of Central Florida, Moore hit .271/.376/.454 after joining the Rangers. The following year, he spent most of the year in the South Atlantic League before a short stay in the California League. After the trade, he moved to Carolina and OPS'd .872. Overall, his 2016 line was .269/.379/.441 with 14 homers and 42 steals. Not included in that slash was his postseason experience with Double-A Mississippi after Ozzie Albies got hurt. At the end of the year, he headed to the Arizona Fall League and hit .317 with 2 homers in 45 PA.

Along the way, Moore played every position on the field except for catcher. Yeah, he even logged one inning on the mound where he gave up seven runs (all unearned). The Braves limited him to 1B/SS/3B after the trade, though it'll be interesting to see if he plays any position in particular or keeps being used as a journeyman.

While picked in the first ten rounds, Moore's selection likely had a lot to do with his willingness to sign for cheap (his slot value was near $220K, he signed for $10K). That said, all that matters is that so far, Moore has hit and shown enough defensive flexibility to be a rather intriguing player. Moore is what I call a "maximizer." Individually, none of his tools stand out, but he makes the most of what he has. He has good discipline at the plate and his short-and-compact swing allows him to avoid big strikeout numbers. He'll swipe a few bases - largely due to intelligence on the base paths. Like I said, Moore makes the most out of his tools and while he'll never rocket to the top of a prospect list, he's got enough going in his favor to deserve more recognition.



Carlos Salazar, RHP, 22 years-old

Sometimes, the ceiling is just too high for players to reach. Salazar was one of Frank Wren's final high-projection picks before he was axed. Picked at the end of the third round in 2013, Salazar was considered a Top 100 draft prospect before the Braves took him at 102nd overall. Capable of reaching near three digits, the question was whether or not he'd be able to hit the strike zone.

Three-and-a-half years later, that question remains. His walk rate has been above 25% since arriving in high-A ball in the summer of 2015. While he has struck out 86 in 63.1 innings, that doesn't make up for the 79 walks. Worse, rather than his control getting any better, it has worsened the more he's advanced up the minor league ladder. His breaking ball has never been able to land consistently for strikes and Salazar may have benefitted from going to Fresno State rather than signing, though he likely would have sacrificed draft spots and money in doing so.

That said, pitchers sometimes click with the right pitching coach and maybe the Braves have that person. He's been compared to Jordan Walden largely because of a small hop at the end of his delivery. If the Braves can ever get him to locate his breaking stuff to go with his fastball, Salazar could be salvaged and he would be a deserving candidate for a Top 50 slot as a prospect. That's a lot to hope for right now, but the ceiling is still there - however hard it is to see.



Randy Ventura, OF, 19 years-old

Old loves die hard. The center fielder became a bit of a summer star for the Braves in 2015 as he made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League and stole 55 bases in just 58 games. He complimented his big debut with a .421 OBP on the heels of a .329 batting average and a 35/27 K/BB combo. And then...a car accident ended his season after his left scapula (shoulder blade) was fractured. Nevertheless, it was a promising start for the switch-hitter.

2016 wasn't so...overwhelming. It wasn't a bad season for Ventura, who spent the year in the Gulf Coast League. He hit .284 after all. However, his slight frame only let him hit seven extra base hits and he only stole 15 bases. His on-base percentage was solid at .358, but the qualities that made him exciting were gone.

I fell in love with Ventura in 2015 which is why I forgot to logically look at things. There were over 3600 stolen bases in the short-season DSL during 2015. The GCL in 2016 (in fewer games) didn't reach 1000. There are better catchers the more you climb the charts. To be honest, Ventura isn't more deserving than J.B. Moss, Wes Parsons, and Evan Phillips - who all missed my Top 50. But ranking prospects is largely an exercise in faith. We can use numbers and compare what players did versus the level they did it at. We can also include tools and projectability. At the end of the day, it's a lot of hope, though. For one more year, I'll hope Ventura returns to being an interesting prospect. Maybe I'll be rewarded - chances are, I won't. But I still have some hope.



Thanks for my reading the five bubble guys - well, really four - that just missed my Top 50. My current plan is to release Prospect #50 to #41 next Tuesday and continue each week to release ten more until I get to the Top 10. At that point, I'll split it up into two final parts. If I do this right, the Top 5 will be released the morning that the Braves pitchers and catchers report. Again, thanks for reading!