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Showing posts with label Roney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roney. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: What a Week It Was!

It was a very eventful week for the Atlanta Braves' system so no dilly-dallying. Let's dive in.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 10 to July 17. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

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Atlanta
Activated: Sean Rodriguez...From a possibility to miss the season to making his Braves debut on July 17. Say what you will about the Braves, but their players don't seem to miss as much time as other teams. Much has been made about Sean-Rod's brief and ultimately unproductive rehab stint for the Braves as he went 3-for-39 with 12 Ks. But don't get caught i[ in the stats too much when it comes to rehab stints. It's all about timing and the Braves likely felt his timing was back - plus he didn't have much time left available to rehab. Moving on, where does Rodriguez fit in? When originally signed, Rodriguez looked like a possibility to share time at second base and third base - along with filling in elsewhere as needed. The Braves now have Brandon Phillips at second base and either Freddie Freeman or Johan Camargo available to play third base. Regardless, Rodriguez should be used frequently when a left-hander is on the mound (.332 wOBA, 111 wRC+ against LHP the last three years). That could mean playing third base like he did yesterday evening or spelling Nick Markakis, who hasn't hit lefties much at all over the last two-and-a-half seasons. Rodriguez is a great player to have on your bench for what he brings to the team and fortunately, this version of the Braves can use him properly as previous year's teams would have overexposed him from playing him too often.

Activated: Danny Santana...During his three-game rehab stint, Santana enjoyed his stay with Gwinnett. In the second game, he went a spectacular 5-for-5 with a double and a steal. He added two more hits the next day before returning to the Braves. Santana has been better with the Braves than he was with the Twins, but much of that is due to Santana being awful with Minnesota to open the season. Santana is a decent enough fit for the Braves, though. He's a switch-hit bat who can play a number of positions and provides a little bit of a speed factor off the bench. Plus, for fans of the Braves, it helps that his name isn't Emilio Bonifacio.

Transferred from 10-day DL to 60-day DL: Armando Rivero (strained right shoulder)...We haven't heard from the hard-throwing righty all year. Some of this may be gamesmanship, but Rivero has been stuck on the DL since early this spring and there has been almost nothing written about it. No ramping up for a rehab stint. No updates on progress. Nothing. Don't plan on seeing Rivero this season.

DL: Jason Motte (back strain)...The Braves have been fortunate this year with a number of players who've had results that were much more favorable than their metrics. Motte is one of those players. With a 3.76 ERA over 31 games, one might say he's been serviceable. When you add in his 18% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate, 17% HR/FB rate, and 30% hard-hit ball rate...you start to get concerned when you see him get the call from Brian Snitker. And to be honest, Motte has been this guy ever since Tommy John surgery took him out of commission in 2013 while with the Cardinals. In the three years before 2017, spent with three different teams, Motte had an 18% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a 12% HR/FB rate, and a 35% hard-hit ball rate. His ERA during that time was 60 points higher. The smart money is on Motte's ERA getting that high again.

Gwinnett
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Promoted from Mississippi: Ronald Acuna (#1)...This one was a biggy. Acuna began the year in Florida and after a month of doing well (but not overwhelming awesome), he received a bit of a surprising promotion. He followed that up by destroying the Southern League to the tune of .326/.374/.520. At the ripe old age of 19, he was a Double-A All-Star and if you weren't already paying attention, he put a show on in batting practice at the Futures Game and in the field during the game. Acuna only played 40 games in Low-A last year and now, he could be an injury away from being called up to start in the Show. Not one to rest on his laurels, Acuna went 6-for-21 over his first five games at Triple-A with two doubles and a pair of home runs. It's easy to overhype prospects, but Acuna keeps reminding us that occasionally, the prospect deserves the hype.

Rehab: Arodys Vizcaino...Placed on the DL last week with an index finger strain, Vizcaino's rehab assignment is not planned to last long. He threw a perfect inning to start Monday's game and struck out one. Returning to Atlanta healthy and productive won't just help the Braves, but also revisit some early July rumors about Vizcaino being a target for contending teams. Vizcaino has closer experience, the ability to reach triple digits on the gun, and has great composure on the mound. Surely someone will be interested in him provided he's good to go. Of course, Atlanta might not be anxious to trade him depending on how the next week goes.

Activated: Caleb Dirks (#40)...Dirks hasn't been as lights-out as he was before this season. His 3.59 FIP would be a new full-season high and he's already surrendered four homers this season after giving up just seven over three seasons. That said, he's still carrying a 29% strikeout rate and a 8% walk rate and that's very impressive. His activation ends a nearly month-long stay on the DL. It was just his second trip to the DL since joining the organization following the 2014 draft. Dirks has routinely posted very solid numbers in the past and could be in line for a shot at the bigs very soon.

Recalled and Optioned: Jason Hursh (#42)...Five times. That's how many times Hursh has been optioned to the minors this season. His latest call-up of three days wasn't even the shortest one of 2017 for the righty. All the while, he's thrown 5.2 innings while allowing one run, two unintentional walks, and four Ks while a member of the Braves bullpen. He also appeared in 23 games between Gwinnett and Mississippi with five saves and is flowing with a 3.11 ERA and a similar FIP as well. Personally, I would like a much longer look for Hursh. It's difficult to know which of these borderline prospects are keepers with so little time to impress before being passed over for higher-rated prospects. They need to get their chance and show something very quickly. Hursh has done well when called upon, but can't seem to stay in the majors long enough to establish himself. The longer this continues, the more likely it is for Hursh to get lost in the shuffle.

Optioned: Micah Johnson...With Johnson healthy, but no spot for him in the majors, he was optioned to Gwinnett. Acquired in a trade in mid-January with the Dodgers, Johnson was on his way to make the roster this spring before a fractured left wrist on a dive took him out of the competition. He's appeared nine times since beginning his rehab stint and has looked fairly good (11-for-31, 2B, 3 BB, 8 K, 5 SB). A former second baseman, Johnson has only played the outfield this season. As the Braves cycle Acuna all over the outfield, Johnson will likely be the guy playing center when Acuna isn't.

Optioned: Jace Peterson...For the third time this season, the Braves option Peterson to the minors. He's been tremendous with Gwinnett so they are happy to have him back. His most recent appearance in the majors includes three games as a pinch-hitter. He made the final one a memorable one, smacking a ball into the Chop House for his first homer since last August 21. That one was pretty memorable, too, as it was a walk-off bomb off Shawn Kelley to beat the Nationals. Despite his mammoth homer on Saturday, he just hasn't done enough to justify a spot in the majors. He's a useful player when an injury opens a spot as he can play all over, but he's earned an AAAA label right now.

Outrighted and traded: Chaz Roe...It's bad enough to be waived and have no teams claim you. But Roe's frustrations grew Monday night as he was charged with three runs as the Braves wasted an excellent Lucas Sims non-start (6 ING, 3 ER, 11 Ks in relief of Vizcaino). Roe broke camp with the team this spring largely because he was out-of-options. After a trio of ugly appearances, he landed on the DL with a lat strain. He made four appearances in the minors over two rehab stints (a flare-up stopped his rehab once), but the Braves passed on bringing back to Atlanta. (Update...today saw Roe traded to Tampa for cash.)

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Neslony (#46)...A ninth rounder drafted largely because the Braves needed to cut some corners to sign higher-rated prospects, Neslony was a surprising force at the plate for the Fire Frogs. He slashed .309/.378/.442. Included was an attempt to teach the former Texas Tech star first base. That didn't go so hot (9 errors in less than 200 innings), but Neslony will continue to move up the ladder. To this point, Neslony has shown a knack for hitting righties (.310/.377/.457) and could develop into a platoon bat who can play the outfield corners and the occasional first base. He's off to a 4-for-16 start in Double-A with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts since the promotion. He's played only outfield so far.

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Promoted from Florida: Austin Riley (#13)...A lot of the high-profile promotions last week made sense, but Riley's was a bit confusing. He wasn't exactly lighting it up at Florida and, at 20-years-old, was still young for the level. Nevertheless, Atlanta promoted the strong third baseman for a trial-by-fire in the Southern League. With Florida, Riley was hitting .252/.310/.408 with a dozen homers. He's yet to show improved plate discipline, though he did shave off 5% off his strikeout rate from last season. His ISO was also down 50 points so there's that. Honestly, this is the one promotion I absolutely don't understand. Riley's first five games included four hits, including a home run last night, and two walks along with five K's.

Promoted from Florida: Jacob Webb...Needing a new challenge, Webb heads up to the Southern League. In 22 games with Florida this year, Webb K'd 48 in 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA. For Webb, he's making up for lost time. After being plucked in the 18th round all the way back in 2014, Webb was solid in 33.2 innings in the GCL. He was a rising prospect before feeling a pop in his elbow on the first day of minor league spring training in 2015. After the dreaded TJS, Webb returned in 2016 to throw 13 innings before being unleashed this season. For more on Webb, check out my Random Prospect Sunday column from early March.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Enrique Burgos...Gwinnett has a blog that regularly gives updates on the team. Last week, they profiled Burgos. Acquired the same day the Braves picked up Matt Adams, Burgos was struggling in the Arizona system. However, he's been nothing but great with Gwinnett. In 13 games, he's allowed a single run in 14 innings. For that matter, he's only allowed three hits. Add in the seven walks and 17 strikeouts and you have a reliever who is flourishing. So why the demotion? The Gwinnett bullpen is getting quite full with veterans.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Stephen Gaylor...This is the eleventh Transaction Tuesday I've done this season and Gaylor has shown up four times. Such is the life of organizational depth. Gaylor has split 30 games between Double-A and Triple-A and actually has slightly better numbers in Triple-A. His value to the Braves is in his defense, speed, and the fact the Braves trust him to just do his job no matter how much they jerk him around. These guys don't get a lot of love in prospect rankings, but they serve a purpose for the organization.

DL: Jesse Biddle (#47)...The former top Phillies prospect has been quietly solid for the M-Braves. Over 27 games, all out of the pen, Biddle has struck out a quarter of all batters while displaying the best control of his career. No word on what pushed him to the DL. He did reach 49.2 innings in fairly quick order. If he doesn't miss much time - or isn't on too restrictive of an innings limit - Biddle could be in line for a promotion if the Braves are so inclined.

DL: Bradley Roney...On-and-off the DL. That's been Roney's season. The good news is that he's striking out a ton of batters for Mississippi. And I mean a ton. 35.3%. Of course, with Roney, it always comes down to the but. In this case, it's a "but, he's also walked 17%." Now 24-years-old, Roney has logged just 18 total games this year - 15 in Double-A. He has yet to show any significant advancement. You can't strike out everyone and you certainly can't get by walking every fifth batter.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Justin Ellison...A toolsy 12th rounder back in 2015, Ellison was easy to forget about heading into 2017. Last year, his first above rookie-level, the outfielder batted .247/.304/.370 while showing decent range and good speed (18 steals). However, the triple slash and presence of guys higher on the depth chart kept him in Rome to open this season. His 45-game run in Rome was hardly noteworthy and he was in the midst of some struggles at the time of his promotion, but in his defense, he did flash some strong overall numbers against righties (.271/.321/.481) and was humming before the All-Star Break stopped his mojo. Ellison has worked to cut down on his swing, but it's still long and with a pronounced uppercut. There are some qualities here that deserve second and third looks, though. He's a project, but with plus athletism already in his toolbag.

Promoted from Rome: Brandon White...With back-to-back picks, the Braves selected a pair of Brandon White's. This particular one is the 12th-round variation. The 13th-round one was cut and last played for Southern Illinois in the Frontier League. A righty out of Lander University in South Carolina, Brandon Steven White was solid for Danville last year and so far this season, he's built on that success while serving as Rome's closer. His ten saves is five more than second place in the organization. He also struck out nearly a batter an inning and showed solid control. In his first outing with Florida, he surrendered a solo home run and struck out two over a pair of frames.

Demoted from Mississippi: Andrew Daniel...Signed near the end of June, Daniel went 2-for-21 with Mississippi, but his demotion was about the guy he effectively replaces in the Florida lineup - Austin Riley. After a good debut in the Pioneer League back in 2014, Daniel hasn't shown much offense since. He'll try to change that with Florida.

Promoted to Mississippi and Demoted Back: Junior Rincon...Speaking of recent signees, Rincon was part of this column last week. He made one appearance during a stay in the Southern League and allowed a run in one inning. His only outing with Florida, which came before the promotion, saw Rincon surrendered three runs over 1.2 ING.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Ryan Schlosser...Ryan Thomas Schlosser is the oldest-looking 21-year-old I have ever seen. A 32nd rounder a year ago, Schlosser was used as a closer with the GCL squad before a late-season promotion to Danville. He started this year with the APPY club and looked decent enough in six games before this promotion. Schlosser is a sinker baller we are still trying to get a good handle on because we haven't seen much out of the big kid from the small college. I will say this - he's a fun guy. Danville recently did a fidget spinner giveaway and he traded a bat to a kid for one of them.

Promoted from Danville: Izzy Wilson (#41)...Is there a faster outfield in the minors than Cristian Pache, Randy Ventura, and Izzy Wilson? Possibly, but these guys are flyers. Izzy came onto the scene with a big GCL campaign in 2015 where he belted ten homers in just 48 games. He also walked a bunch - along with striking out a whole lot. A lot was hoped for when the 2016 season opened for Danville, but Wilson was marred in a season-long slump that ended with a .591 OPS and just two homers. A return assignment was given to Wilson and he did not disappoint. He continued to strike out a lot but got on base at a .338 clip with a nearly .300 ISO over 17 games. The Braves took pity on the Appalachian League pitchers and brought Wilson to Rome. Four games in, he's struck out seven times. He's also doubled and swiped a pair of bases. Wilson is a fun prospect because there is a lot here to like. Can he put it together enough to be a Top-30 or Top-20 prospect for the Braves? He'll have to clean up his game (career .215 hitter so far with 129 K's in 107 games), but the power and speed combination - along with good defense - should keep Wilson in the discussion.

Danville
Promoted from GCL: Walter Borkovich...Undrafted out of Michigan State, Borkovich was a four-year performer for the Spartans. He was a control artist who didn't get many strikeouts while in school, which predictably didn't grab much draft attention. Signing with the Braves after the draft, Borkovich appeared twice in the GCL and tossed four scoreless innings. His first outing in Danville resulted in his first professional win as he went 2.2 scoreless innings with 4 Ks. He's not a big prospect by any means, but Borkovich was clocked in the mid-90's in college so he's not just throwing junk up there. He didn't do enough to get drafted, but the Braves have a knack for finding undrafted kids and turning them into something useful.

Promoted from GCL: Jasseel De La Cruz...A late addition to the 2014-15 signing class, Cruz struggled in 2015 before shaving off three-and-a-half runs off his ERA last year in a second stint in the DSL. His success warranted a promotion to the Gulf Coast League to finish 2016 and he was dominant with 15 scoreless innings, four hits allowed, a walk, and 12 Ks. It's a bit surprising he returned to GCL to open this season, but there was a method to Atlanta's madness. They wanted to change him over to a starter and over four starts, Cruz had a 1.89 ERA. Atlanta ran out of reasons to keep him in the GCL and he heads to Danville. Cruz could be a guy who climbs up the prospect ladder with some strong numbers in Danville.

Promoted from GCL: Kevin Maitan (#4)...Well, that was quick. After just nine games in the GCL, the Braves send the 17-year-old switch-hitter to Danville to continue his professional career. Did we learn anything in the GCL? Well, Maitan did strike out ten times in 37 PA. That's not great. He also reached base 13 times, which is pretty good for the first nine games of your career. Through two games in Danville, Maitan is 2-for-8 with 3 Ks. He's also mercifully moved Derian Cruz over to second base, which might be a better spot for the 2015-16 top signee. Between the two, the Braves have spent $6.25M. They'll gladly spend more if they progress to the majors - especially with Maitan, who is one of those "the sky is the limit" players.

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Promoted from GCL: Drew Waters (#22)...Maitan got nine games in the GCL - Waters received 14. Regardless, the do-everything outfielder was explosive, hitting .347/.448/.571 with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He stole a pair of bases and walked seven times. Not too shabby for the switch-hitting prospect. He added three more hits, including a double, in his two-game run with the D-Braves so far. Our own Stephen Tolbert is convinced Waters will soon be the Braves' best outfield prospect once Acuna graduates to the majors. So far, he looks right on.

GCL
Demoted from Danville: Gilbert Suarez...Roster spots were needed and Suarez returns to the GCL, where he's spent the two last two years following his 18th round selection back in 2015. Suarez was excellent for GCL a year ago with only two earned runs in 23.2 ING but was absolutely lit up in six games with Danville. As a team, the D-Braves have allowed 15 home runs. Four have come on pitches from Suarez. His ERA was 12.60 in 10 innings. So, this wasn't just a roster numbers thing in regards to Suarez. The righty came into professional baseball with a low-90's fastball, a good-looking curve, and what may have been a changeup. But in his third year, his inability to figure out the APPY League is troubling. Worse, his first game back in the GCL didn't go so hot as he was saddled with two earned runs in an inning and a third - tying the amount of ER he gave up in 23.2 innings last year.

Demoted from Danville: Ramon Taveras...Just promoted, Tavarez returns to the GCL without toeing the mound for the D-Braves. This is his fourth year of professional ball and he's yet to appear in a game for Atlanta's top rookie-league team - let alone progress into A-ball. Nothing really stands out about his numbers. He's been mostly a reliever and not a very successful one. At this rate, it would be shocking to see Taveras in 2018 for the Braves unless he starts to build some momentum quick.

DSL
All quiet on the Dominican front.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Newcomb, Medlen, Pike, Minter

Lots of moves to report this week in this recap. A top prospect is promoted to the bigs, a former prospect works his way up the ladder, and a non-prospect continues his wayward journey to never spend too much time in one city. Hope you enjoy!

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between June 6 and June 12. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta
Hursh (3rd across) | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Recalled from Mississippi, Optioned to Gwinnett, and Recalled Again: Jason Hursh...Don't look now, but Hursh has added some velocity to his heater and hit 96.18 mph last week. If he can throw that heavy fastball with that kind of velocity and location, the Braves may have themselves a prospect after all. He was dealing for both Mississippi and Gwinnett this year. At 25, it's time to see if he can stick in the majors for good now.

Recalled: Lane Adams...Most players are kind of boring to follow on twitter. They retweet generic inspirational posts, reach out to their hometown buddies, or say "let's go get 'em" each time there is a game. Lane Adams, though, is a joy to follow. Recent tweets include him taking someone to task for being a "true fan," his endorsement of the Minute Maid soft-frozen lemonade (which he says is the "bomb dot com"), and advising women to stop bedazzling their capris. His twitter feed was major league quality long before he was brought back to the majors.

Recalled and Optioned to Gwinnett: Matt Wisler...Hitters in general show improvement the more times in a game they see a pitcher so I don't want you to fall in love with these splits, but opposing OPS from the first appearance against Wisler in a game to the fourth appearance ranges from .741 to .795 to .837 to .925. He's got a good slider and likely would add a few ticks to his heater (currently in the 93 mph range) if he was in a relief role. Is it time to consider that?

Called Up: Sean Newcomb (#2)...I wrote a blurb about Newcomb yesterday so I don't want to repeat myself much. What I didn't mention yesterday is the news that dropped about Newcomb. He'll get at least a second start. Are you hyped yet?

DL'd: Bartolo Colon (left oblique/general awfulness)...Colon's greatest contribution to the Braves this year has been hitting the DL so Newcomb could be promoted. That's just a sad fact. He has a 5.09 FIP, his highest walk rate since Barrack Obama's first year, and an xFIP of 4.83 - which would be a new high (the stat goes back to 2002). But hey, we got plenty of fat jokes along the way.

DL'd: Adonis Garcia (left finger/general awfulness)...The nearly everyday third baseman (for reasons) is back on the DL for a second time this season. He has a .282 OBP this year which is just 20 points below his career average so...yay for a regression to the norm at some point...

DL'd: Eric O'Flaherty (left shoulder/general awfulness)...My daughter was given a gobstopper and immediately tried to bite it down and crunch it. I told her that she needs to suck it first because it's too hard to bite. She said she understood and wouldn't ya know it? She kept trying to bite it. I took it away from her because she wouldn't eat the candy properly. At some point, John Coppolella has to take away O'Flaherty from Brian Snitker because Snit won't use O'Flaherty properly. Over the last two seasons, lefties have a .292 wOBA against O'Flaherty with a 20% strikeout rate. Righties? They brutalize O'Flaherty to the tune of a .461 wOBA (not a typo). Yet, he's faced just one more lefty than he has a righty during that time. This season, he's faced five more righties than he has lefties! Coppy, take the gobstopper away from Snit. He's just going to use it wrong.

Released: Emilio Bonifacio...Could this be the end of the Braves/Boni relationship? One can hope. You have to give it up for Boni's consistency, though. In 2015, in 82 PA, he had a -0.7 fWAR. Last year, in 43 PA, he had -0.6 fWAR. This season, in 44 PA, he had a -0.6 fWAR. Only nine major league players were able to amass more than -1.5 fWAR over the last three years and to his credit, nobody did it more efficiently than Bonifacio (just 169 PA). It took Casey McGehee nearly 200 more PA to be that inept.

Gwinnett
Gaylor | Barry College
Promoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...This is actually Gaylor's second assignment in Gwinnett - he played there one game last year. Gaylor has some fans in the front office who keep promoting him despite some fairly un-noteworthy numbers. He was hitting just .118 in 13 games before joining Gwinnett after all and has a career .646 OPS, but the undrafted outfielder out of Berry College continues to climb the ladder.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kris Medlen...The comeback continued into its third different assignment as Medlen graduates from Florida and Mississippi on his way back to the majors. His first start in Gwinnett since 2012 wasn't great, though he did strike out six, a season high. The pinpoint control just isn't there yet and he'll need a bit more time, but the 31-year-old has looked strong in his five outings.

Activated: Aaron Blair...Following a short stint on the DL, Blair returned last week to make two starts. One was pretty ugly, but his Sunday start against Charlotte was superb with 6.1 innings, four hits, no runs, two walks, and five K's. Blair's control has been suspect all season and a pitcher with his limitations needs to be able to hit his spots much better.

Activated: Braeden Schlehuber...A fourth rounder in Frank Wren's first draft class (2008), Schlehuber is an organizational guy who I would be shocked to see not get a coaching assignment in the organization once he retires. He's been on the DL nearly as many times (three) this year as games played (four). On the plus side, on May 31, he hit his first home run since 2014.

Temporary Inactive: Caleb Dirks (#34)...I'm not real sure what this is about for Dirks. Likely, this is related to paternity leave, but in general, a temporary inactive placement is just a way to say the player in on paid leave. A placement like this requires at least three days away from the team. Dirks was placed on the list last Friday. He's struck out 40 over 34.1 innings compared to just ten unintentional walks. He has matched his career-high by surrendering three home runs and has an FIP of 3.29.

Released: Mel Rojas Jr....Rojas was a big minor league pickup last year and logged significant time this spring with the Dominican Republic squad this spring for the World Baseball Classic. That potentially was to his detriment as he missed out on an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Braves bench with Bonifacio. After a slow start with Gwinnett, Rojas was ready to try his luck elsewhere and asked for his release to sign with a team in Korea. The Braves obliged and Rojas will have a shot to make some good money in Asia.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Pike...Otherwise known as the other guy the Braves got in the Alex Jackson trade, Pike left a minor league system that does some questionable things to their arms to a system that gives more reasonable assignments and rewards performance. Lucky for all of us. Pike's improvement with his control that really began last year continued for Florida and he upped his groundball rate in the process. He carried a 2.94 FIP over nearly 70 innings with the Fire Frogs before the promotion. Pike was a former #126th overall pick so he's got some talent. If the Braves are able to develop that talent into an exciting prospect, they will show once more that sometimes, it's not the prospects who disappoint, but the scouting-and-development team that doesn't bring out the best of the prospect.

Parsons | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated with Gwinnett from extended spring, demoted from Gwinnett: Wes Parsons...For us that have watched Parsons struggle to stay on the mound, his promotion to Gwinnett was a nice moment. However, he got bashed around in his 8.1 innings and will return back to Mississippi, where he was impressive over 30.1 innings.

Activated: Bradley Roney (#38)...Roney has spent much of the season sidelined. He's only appeared in eleven games. His walk rate continues to be an issue (14% at Mississippi), which negates his very impressive strikeout numbers. Roney pitched 27 games in Gwinnett last season and has closer stuff. Will he ever hit the strike zone enough, though?

DL'd: Matt Withrow (#29)...After a tremendous beginning to the season, Withrow's numbers had really come back to Earth over his last four starts (18 ER in 17.1 ING with 10 BB and 15 K's). He now heads to the DL for the first time for the 2015 sixth rounder. The Texas Tech alum has a nice fastball with good sink, but doesn't get many grounders out of it. Withrow has a classic fastball/slider combination that might serve him well as a reliever or the Braves might keep him as a starter as he tries to develop his offspeed stuff because that makes him a better trade asset.

Florida
Activated from DL: A.J. Minter (#19)...It's been a tough season for Minter, who carried a great deal of hype into spring training. There was thought he might even jump to the majors and why not? He jumped from Rome to Mississippi in 13 games with a stop in Carolina last year. But he was slowed by injury this spring and when he finally got into a game on April 11th, he strained his groin. But on Sunday, he made his return and struck out all three batters he faced. Kids, time to get hyped again.

Promoted to Mississippi and demoted back: Andres Santiago...So, this is Santiago's season. He spent a week to open the year with Florida, was "sent" to Danville for three days, brought back to Florida for a dozen, "back" to Danville for four, and was added to Rome for nearly two weeks before returning to Florida on May 10. I'm not done. Ten days later, he "returned" to Danville for a week before coming back to Florida for about five days. He then went to Gwinnett for two days, back to Florida for four days, up to Mississippi for three days, and two days ago, he was demoted back to Florida. In two months, he's moved around more than I have in nearly 35 years on this planet. I need to do more with my life.

Rome
Promoted from extended spring: Alan Rangel...Plucked out of Mexico back in 2014 during Frank Wren's last international class, Rangel has spent his first two professional seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He struggled badly through his first run, but turned the corner a bit last year with 46.2 solid innings. Rangel works off his control, which is superb and gets some good downward movement on his pitches. He fit the mold that the Wren-era scouting team was looking for in that way. He was expected to be on the Danville roster when the season opened, but received a shot with Rome to show what he has. He scattered seven hits over 4.2 innings, but only one, a homer, led to a run. He also walked a batter and struck out four. Just 19, he might get an extended stay with the Danville pitching staff likely to be stacked from the draft.

Activated: Oriel Caicedo...An extreme control artist, Caicedo has walked just four in 43.1 innings this year for Rome. Overall, he has a mere 73 walks in 412.2 career innings. He'll never strikeout a lot and doesn't get a ridiculous amount of grounders, which is why he won't show up on your prospect lists, but he's a solid dependable arm who can start when needed.

DL'd: Ryan Lawlor...Selected in 2015 with the #240th overall pick, Lawlor skipped Rome last year on his way to Carolina. He struggled there with an ERA and FIP near 5.00 before being demoted to Rome for this season. Though his ERA has been pedestrian (4.37), his peripherals have been wonderful (31% K-rate, 8% walk rate, no homeruns, 48% groundball rate, 2.03 FIP). I have not seen any report as to why he hit the DL, but he last pitched on May 31 and went 5.2 innings that day while matching his season and career-high in strikeouts with nine.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Jaret Hellinger...A 2015 20th rounder out of McDonough, GA, Hellinger has some good sinking stuff, but the southpaw struggled to put it together with Danville last year (4.42 FIP). He opened this season in extended spring training before getting a call-up in mid-May. His first outing was solid, but he struggled from there with a four-run four-inning start mixed in during his six-appearance run with Rome. Short of an injury, Hellinger might be stuck in Danville until their season begins.

DSL
Severino | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Assigned: Yenci Pena...Another one of the seven-figure prospects the Braves added last July, Pena us expected to add power as he ages (he's still just 16). A capable defender at shortstop, there is concern whether he'll stay there long-term, but for now, the Braves will roll with him at the position. He's gotten off to a 4-for-18 start with a pair of doubles, five strikeouts, and a steal.

Assigned: Yunior Severino (#44)...Signed for $1.9 million last July, Severino is one of the crown jewels of a massive class that also included Kevin Maitan, Abrahan Guiterrez, and the aforementioned Pena. He was ranked as the eighth-best prospect of last year's class and is a switch-hitting power hitter who may - and I stress may - be able to stay on the middle of the infield. Atlanta has decided for now to shift him over to second base, though opinions were split about whether he'd be able to stay at shortstop should the Braves had tried that. Severino is off to a 2-for-15 start with a double, three walks, and five strikeouts.

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Wisler, Blair, Medlen, and Wentz

In this weekly review of the Braves' transactions, we focus a good deal on the pitchers. Some are attempting to stay in the majors for good while others are trying to work their way back. Elsewhere, one of Atlanta's best young guns is back on the mound just a week after a liner had Braves fans holding their breaths after it struck him.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between May 23 and May 29. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta
Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons
Recalled: Matt Wisler...Wisler the Reliever, Part 2. Earlier in the year, Wisler came up and had two good outings and two rough ones - one in which he basically had to "wear it" as the Braves were pummelled 16-5. In two outings since returning, he's thrown four perfect frames with two strikeouts. That, at least, is something to build upon. Wisler's Triple-A ERA was high (5.20), but his FIP and xFIP were much more reasonable at 3.75 and 3.92 respectably. At the very least, I'd much rather see him in long relief than the next guy.

Designated for assignment and outrighted to Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Well, that didn't take long. After 19 innings over three starts last September for the Braves, Collmenter can't even duplicate the innings output in 2017. The problem was fairly fundamental. The Braves bought into his brief success without looking at the obvious flaws. His FIP was a good two runs higher than his ERA over those three starts and that's ignoring two very troublesome seasons from 2015-16 as a whole. The Braves rolled the dice and quickly regretted it. Collmenter gave up one run for each of the 17 innings he pitched and often, those runs came on flyballs that haven't landed yet (7 HR!). According to the Braves transaction page, he accepted a demotion to Gwinnett.

Gwinnett
Activated: Enrique Burgos...The often wild, but electric Burgos worked a quiet first frame as a member of the Gwinnett Braves after he was acquired last week. Despite prolific strikeout numbers, the last time Burgos had a better than 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate was back in 2014. He's a project and at 26, probably not a project the Braves will have a wealth of patience to wait on.

Outrighted: Anthony Recker...Rarely used in Atlanta, Recker was DFA'd last week after the flurry of trades and roster moves. He passed through waivers and elected to stick with the team.

Promoted from Mississippi: Wes Parsons...For the second time, Parsons is now a Triple-A ballplayer. The first time came on April 28 when he made an one appearance run with Gwinnett. It's been a long - often arduous - road for Parsons to get to this point. After a combined 142.1 innings over the last three years, Parsons had already reached 30.1 innings this year before the promotion. He's probably a bit miscast as a reliever, but he still flashes plus-plus control. He worked a tough inning in his return, allowing three singles and a run while striking out two.

Rehab: Adonis Garcia...So, Garcia had a four-hit game yesterday. He's definitely coming back and it's going to be pretty darn interesting what happens when he does. I have to believe that John Coppolella will wave off any lobbying by Brian Snitker and sent Emilio Bonifacio packing. When Garcia returns, he will likely settle into a platoon option, though knowing Snitker, we may get more of a timeshare than a platoon which ignores the best parts of Rio Ruiz and Garcia's game.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
Rehab: Eric O'Flaherty...Last week, O'Flaherty hit the DL after aggravating his back giving up a homerun to Jose Bautista playing on the Toronto turf. He'll likely join the Braves soon after already making his first rehab appearance with a perfect frame. But should the Braves really roll out the carpet to welcome back him? We were told that after having his elbow cleaned out last year, he was feeling better than he had in a few years. There were reports he was getting sink on his pitches once again. And then the data came rolling in and said otherwise. According to PITCHf/x, at his best, O'Flaherty was getting between 5.71 and 6.74 of vertical movement on his sinker. It's down to 4.45 this season, which is actually very similar to last year's 4.56. His fourseamer had between 8.11 and 9.27 inches of vertical movement. It's been between 6.23 and 6.47 the last two seasons. He's using his slider a lot more now and getting half of the depth as his best Braves years. In his favor is that he's still handling lefties so far. That might be enough to get him back on the roster. But he's not "back" in the deeper sense. Not even a bit.

DL'd: Aaron Blair...Two years ago, Blair flashed plus-plus control with some newfound ability to induce his fair share of grounders. It made the Braves anxious to acquire him. Since coming to Atlanta, his control has never been worse (12.6 BB% this season), his strikeouts have never been worse, and his groundball rate has fallen ten points. Did the Braves rush him to the bigs last year? I don't think so. Blair's not making adjustments and that's not the fault of the Braves. He quickly fell into the habit of nibbling last year after he got to the majors. It reminds me of how Mike Minor pitched once he got to the majors from 2010-2012. His fear led him to give up baserunners in bunches until he finally started to trust his stuff. When that happened, Minor posted a 3.5 fWAR during 2013. Will Blair follow a similar path or will he continue to regress? Hopefully, it will be the former. I'm not sure why Blair hit the DL, by the way.

DL'd: Joel De La Cruz...He's spent more of the season on the DL than on the active roster. When he has been healthy, the results have been pretty miserable. Remember that this was a guy who threw 62.2 innings for last year's pitching staff.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Kris Medlen...After turning some heads with a six shutout innings in his 2017 debut, Medlen was roughed up by Clearwater last week for five runs in 5.1 ING. Nevertheless, he received a promotion up the ladder as he tries to work his way back into the picture. The control has been suspect, which you might expect from a guy working off the rust. The Braves could use all the help they can get and if Medlen does make it all the way back, he'll certainly force Atlanta to make a potentially tough decision.

Activated: Stephen Gaylor...The left-hand hitting outfielder has played in just a dozen games this season and is off to a 3-for-30 start with two walks. An undrafted free agent back in 2014, Gaylor showed a decent enough hit tool until arriving in Carolina last year. It's gotten much worse at Double-A.

Activated: Danny Reynolds...Picked up after becoming a minor league free agent this offseason, Reynolds' fourth season at Double-A has been a mixed bag. His groundball rate has shot up and his control is a bit improved compared to the previous two seasons, but his strikeouts have declined. His 5.48 ERA is a bit misleading - his LOB% is 56% - but his FIP and xFIP tell two different stories (3.33/4.56).

Demoted to Extended Spring: Connor Lien (#36)...It's hard to be too disappointed with Lien this year. With a deeper system than two years ago, he was no longer a borderline Top 20 prospect. Of course, his injury-riddled 2016 was also a factor. Though, even if he wasn't a major prospect anymore, this season has been tough to watch Lien go through. He was hitting .187/.268/.343 at the time of his demotion with 59 K's in 149 PA. That comes out to a nearly 40% strikeout rate - about 15% higher than his 2015 campaign. He has looked lost and unable to turn it around. Perhaps sometime at extended spring where he can clear his head will help.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him
on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
DL'd: Bradley Roney (#38)....It's been a tough campaign for Roney, whose talented by wild arm had him pitching meaningful games in the International League playoffs last year. After opening the year on the DL, he headed to Florida in late April before a promotion to Mississippi. He was actually doing okay there and unintentionally walked just four of the first 36 he faced while striking out a dozen, but he's now back on the DL.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Matt Gonzalez...Picked in the sixth round last year out of Georgia Tech, Gonzalez missed the first month of action while in extended spring training until a call-up after the first week of May. He then spent just 16 games in Rome, hitting .300/.355/.329. He picked up starts at third and in left and made a cameo at second base. It's second base that might help Gonzalez find some playing time in Florida as Alay Lago has underwhelmed to this point.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Andres Santiago...Often one of the names that fluctuates on-and-off the roster, Santiago has appeared nine times this year, including seven games with Florida. The results haven't been there for the eleven-year veteran, though the strikeouts look great (21 in 14.2 ING).

Released: J.B. Moss...To make room for Gonzalez, the Braves cut Moss, a seventh-round selection last year. Moss had blitzed the Appalachian League after being drafted, but the former Texas A&M star struggled with Carolina and then this season in his brief twelve games with Florida. Moss's value with the Braves was tied into how much money he saved them by signing under-slot last June. It's the tough thing about being signed less for your potential and more about allowing the team to sign the guys they actually want.

Rome
Activated: Joey Wentz (#14)...Good to see the southpaw Wentz back out there on Memorial less than two weeks after taking a liner off his leg. He tossed four innings of one-run ball in his return with a walk and three strikeouts. On the year, Wentz has a 3.18 ERA and over a strikeout an inning.

Promoted from Extended Spring: Ramon Osuna...With Rome getting little-to-no production from Anthony Concepcion and Kurt Hoekstra at first base, Osuna will get a chance to see if he can help out. A 14th round pick out of Walters State Community College in Morristown, TN last year, Osuna hit .276/.342/.423 with four homers in Danville. He struck out a ton (29%) and the former corner outfielder in college struggled with his new role at first base. Hopefully, an offseason of fine-tuning his skills will help him look more comfortable at first base.

Demoted from Mississippi: Joe Rogers...The late-spring cut by the Tigers has shown up a number of times in this series as he cycled on-and-off the Mississippi roster while only pitching three games.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Raymar Navarro...The Cuban righty has been limited to just five games with Rome this year. They have been successful for the most part, but the 26-year-old is not progressing up the depth chart despite pitching 67 innings last year at High-A.

DL'd: Oriel Caicedo...There have been two Oriel Caicedos in professional baseball. Both were signed out of Panama by the Braves. One is 26 and hasn't played since 2011 while the other recently hit the DL. Caicedo is no spring chicken at 23 years-old and made his debut in 2011...where he played with the other Oriel Caicedo. Seriously, this is something for me to obsess about. New Caicedo has impeccable control (just 71 unintentional passes in 411.2 innings), but also won't pick up many K's. He's been a swingman throughout his career and this marks his third year with Rome. Not sure what sent Caicedo to the DL.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Howard, Dirks, Sobotka, Roney

Articles in back-to-back days here as Walk-Off Walk as we work into the final week of April. If you're new to the blog, Transaction Tuesday is a recap of the moves in the Braves organization from Atlanta all the way down to rookie ball. It's a simple way to keep track of player movement.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between April 18 and April 24. Taxi Squad refers to a Braves minor league team "sending" a player to Danville just to get him off the active roster. In most cases, the player will stay with the team that just demoted him until he is brought back onto the active roster. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta Braves
Rehab and Activated: Matt Kemp...All told, Kemp spent the minimum ten days on the disabled list dealing with a right hamstring injury. He appeared in one game for Gwinnett, his first taste of minor league action since 2013. He went 1-for-3 with a single and a strikeout. In four games since being activated, Kemp is 3-for-17 with a homer and two strikeouts.

Promoted and Optioned to Gwinnett: Aaron Blair...With the bullpen tired, the Braves called up Blair last week for a few days before sending him back to Gwinnett. Atlanta didn't want to get Blair off his regular pitching schedule too much so a demotion was appropriate even though Blair never appeared during his brief return to the bigs. In three starts with Gwinnett his year, Blair has racked up 16 K's, but still lacks the consistency that made watching him so frustrating for both Braves fans and team management.

Promoted: Matt Wisler...Replacing Blair on the roster was Wisler, who has also made three average starts. The control is superb as usual, but Wisler continues to struggle to set down batters and shorten innings.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Johan Camargo...The switch-hitting shortstop from Panama got into five games during his first stint in the bigs and went 1-for-4 with 3 K's. His pinch-hit single made Camargo the second Atlanta Brave this year, along with Tyler Flowers, to have a hit in a pinch-hit appearance. Camargo has been a surprise with the bat since spring training began and already has two homers with Gwinnett.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Luke Jackson (#24)...After making a start in his season debut with Gwinnett, Jackson joined the Braves roster after Chaz Roe went on the DL. He worked a trio of games during his time in the majors flashing his swing-and-miss potential. The Braves are working with Jackson to throw more strikes to take advantage of his talented right arm and so far, so good. He'll continue his quest to get back to the bigs - this time to stay - as he continues his journey with Gwinnett.

Traded to the Angels: David Hernandez...Signed just before the season began after he failed to make the Giants roster, Hernandez had a good beginning to his season in Gwinnett. In seven games, Hernandez picked up four saves and allowed just one earned run in eight innings. He also K'd nine and walked two. Many Braves fans wanted to see him get a shot with the big league team, but he'll now head west. I have to believe the Braves weren't enamored and saw a chance to acquire anything (in this case, a player to be named later or cash) rather than watch Hernandez opt out of his contract on May 1.

Gwinnett Braves
By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Promoted from Extended Spring Training: Ryan Howard...The former Phillies slugger had been working out with some of the youngest Braves prospects after signing with the team and has now finally been activated. In his first game on Saturday, he went 2-for-2 with a pair of singles, a HBP, and an intentional pass. Of course, with the Braves' bench full of issues, Howard's success in Gwinnett could push the first baseman to the majors in a hurry.

Promoted from Rome: Enderson Franco...Needing a fresh arm, the Braves brought up Franco for a reinforcement. Franco had begun the year in Rome, a step-down from his 2016 campaign in Carolina. He appeared twice out of the pen in the South Atlantic League, but was immediately put into a starting role last Saturday and worked four good innings in Gwinnett's 5-2 win against the Pawtucket Red Sox. It was his first outing above A-ball in his eight-year career.

Demoted to Mississippi: Adam Walker...Almost nobody in the Braves' minor league system can match Walker's power, but the flaws that have plagued his career were an issue to open the 2017 campaign. He struck out 16 times in 44 PA (36%) and reached base safely via a hit or walk just 9 times. He did have three doubles a homer in ten games. In three games with Mississippi, he's already smacked a pair of homers and struck out five times.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Caleb Dirks (#34)...No Gwinnett reliever had worked more innings than Dirks when he was pushed off the active roster. In five games, Dirks has allowed four runs in 9.2 innings with eight strikeouts. His control, normally excellent, has been missing with a handful of walks. Hopefully, the mini-break will help him moving forward.

Mississippi Braves
Activated: Joe Rogers...A late signing after the Tigers cut him on March 19, Rogers is a former 2012 fifth rounder out of Central Florida. Injuries have limited him throughout his career to the point that last year's 36.1 innings stands as his personal high. A lefty, Rogers has just 20 games above A-ball with some miserable results. Well, his numbers at A-ball aren't that good, either. Rogers is just an arm at this point who, I assume, a scout liked enough to convince his boss that he was worthy of a longer look.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Chad Sobotka (#40)...To make room for Rogers, Sobotka was moved off the active roster. After a fractured back suffered in college kept the 2014 fourth rounder out until the following year, Sobotka has slowly worked his way up. Other ailments limited him to just 15 games in 2015 and 30 games the following year. Sobotka, who is an intimating presence on the mound at 6'7", has good stuff, but can he shake the injuries to push his way into the big league picture? If so, he'll give the Braves an intriguing option possibly as soon as the second half of this year.

Florida Fire Frogs
Rehab from Gwinnett: Bradley Roney (#38)...One of the top strikeout arms in the minors, Roney struck out two in two different appearances for Florida this week as he rehabs back from an injury that forced him to miss the beginning of the season. He also walked three, hit a batter, and uncorked a wild pitch. That continues a career-long problem with control for the 24 year-old. From a stuff standpoint, Roney holds his own with any reliever in the Braves organization - including the majors. He simply hasn't been able to control it. Last September, with a chance to go up two games to none in the Governor's Cup, Roney hit a batter and walked two before being removed. Maikel Cleto replaced him in body, but not in spirit as he walked in first the tying run and then the winning run. The Braves lost 2-1 despite allowing just one hit. They would get shut out the next two games to lose the series. A week before that, the dominant Roney was on display as he went 3.1 innings with 8 strikeouts as the Braves won 5-4 in the opener of their first-round series against Columbus. I point that out because to this point, sometimes you get the wildly ineffective Roney and other times you get the shutdown Roney. If he can ever show us more of the latter and less of the former, he's going to be a high-leverage pitcher in the majors.

Demoted to Rome: Raymar Navarro...Signed out of Cuba in the summer of 2015, Navarro made his debut last year with 28 forgetful games in Carolina. He was ticketed for another stay in high-A ball, but a numbers game and a DL stint to begin the year have sent him north to Rome. In his first outing, he K'd a trio of SALLY League hitters in two frames. Navarro is way too old at 26 to be in the South Atlantic League for long, but it's tough to find many innings for project pitchers in this system.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Josh Graham...A fourth rounder in 2015, Graham transitioned to the bullpen full-time last year and the former Oregon Duck was one of Rome's best relievers. He K'd 50 over 42.1 innings while walking just 12. That's a top-notch rate of 4.2 strikeouts per walks. Not a huge prospect, but a good enough one to keep an eye on, Graham opened the season in Florida and the results have been ugly. He's yet to avoid a run-scoring outing and his control has been MIA. This stint "with Danville" is likely a chance to give him some time to clear his head. If everything is right physically and mentally, I expect Graham to rejoin the roster sometime this week.

Rome Braves
Brought back from Taxi Squad: Matt Custred...Like the aforementioned Graham, Custred was a pick in the 2015 draft, though Custred was picked over 20 rounds later in the 31st round. The Texan and former Texas Tech Red Raider has been excellent during his career. Last year, he picked up 64 K's in Rome over 56.2 innings, though he was a bit wild. With the Florida roster packed, Custred was a surprise return to Rome to open the year and has four outings sandwiched around a brief stint "in Danville." He's been great again for Rome with 12 K's in 8.2 innings, though five walks are still too many. At 23 years-old, he is waiting for a promotion to Florida to challenge himself there.

Placed on Taxi Squad and brought back: Bladimir Matos...The time is running out on Matos. Signed shortly before his 21st birthday, Matos was already old to begin his career considering he was an international signing. To this point, the results just haven't been there. Nobody doubts he has the stuff to be a professional pitcher with over a K an inning during his career, but the wildness has limited him. That continues with Rome. In nine innings, he's struck out 13, but walked six and hit a batter. Now 23, Matos has got to show something if he wants to stick around.

Friday, January 20, 2017

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #42-#31

Last week, I began my Top 50 prospects and almost immediately, the Atlanta Braves swung a deal for more prospects. So...thanks for that, John Coppolella.

I kid, but the trade forced me to change my Top 50 to a Top 52 as both players acquired jumped right into the list with one appearing in today's portion. To get me back on track, today's part of the list will be supersized to a dozen. Short of another trade, I'll release ten more next week and ten more the following week before splitting the Top 10 into two parts. I also must apologize for this post being so late. I've been sick the last few days and had trouble wrapping my head around this list. 

When I originally did my Top 50 prospect list, I had Kyle Kinman ranked #38. However, I realized he was actually 26 and I like to keep my prospect lists limited to 25-and-under and players designated as a rookie. With that said, I thought his placement was worth a mention. Lastly, please check out Gondeee's Top 30 Braves prospects that he published this week. As usual, it's a valuable read. 

42. Jonathan Morales, Catcher, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

It wasn't the season many had hoped for with Morales. After blitzing the Gulf Coast Lague (.304/.377/.511) the previous year, Morales jumped to Rome in 2016 and saw a 220 point drop in his OPS. Included was a long stretch of 41 games where he hit .151/.241/.212. That month-plus really impacted his numbers, though even if you take those games out, it was still a far cry from his 2015 run after he was a 25th round pick.

Morales has decent pop and won't strike out much. The flipside of that is he's so aggressive that he's unlikely to take many walks. Offensively, the right-handed hitter needs his hit tool to stand out and it simply did not in 2016. Defensively, though scouting reports aren't high on him, he's had solid metrics and has impressively gunned down half of the 106 baserunners that attempted to steal on him. He also played a little third and had a three-inning cameo in right field, though that was likely more for emergencies.

With the depth behind Morales, he'll be pushed up to Florida in the spring and will need a bounceback season. Obviously, by the fact I ranked him so high, I think he's capable of it. While I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as other catchers in the system, he is part of a much-improved catching depth that was non-existent two years ago.



41. Steve Janas, RHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C 

Holy groundballs! Janas has maintained a groundball rate in the minors of over 55% during his young career. In nearly 300 innings, he's given up just 14 homers. However, what holds back Janas is that he lacks a true pair of plus pitches or the velocity to push him higher on prospect lists. Nevertheless, this is a results-driven business and the results aren't too shabby for Janas.

Though he won't blow you away with heat, he can hit mid-90's. The downside of doing so is that it makes his fastball straight and easy to both see and pound. As a result, he'll sit in the low-90's with his sinker and cutter. He also has a plus changeup and an inconsistent breaking curveball. Janas was a starter until last season when he got pushed to the bullpen. 

His control and ability to generate groundballs will get him looks and his fearlessness on the mound makes him a wild card. However, the lack the stuff and strikeout ability may limit him to Quad-A filler/organizational depth similar to one of his most common comparable pitchers according to Clay Davenport's projection system - Zeke Spruill. Strangely, both righties went to high school in Marietta. Janas will get a look this spring, but with Josh Collmenter already on the team, Janas is likely going to provide long relief/swingman depth behind a talented Gwinnett rotation.



40. Chad Sobotka, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C 

Similar to A.J. Minter, the Braves drafted Sobotka in 2014 knowing that he wouldn't pitch until the next season. As opposed to Tommy John surgery like Minter had, Sobotka was coming back from a stress fracture in his back, which put an ugly end to his collegiate career with the University of South Carolina-Upstate.

His 2015 season was limited to just 37 innings and they were rarely good, but the 6'7" righty bounced back in 2016. His numbers with Rome look poor (4.26 ERA, more hits than innings pitched), but the Braves still liked what they were seeing and promoted him to Carolina. In 13 games there, Sobotka finally started to perform with a 2.04 ERA/1.51 FIP over 17.2 innings. He struck out 24 and walked just three - a far cry from the dozen he walked in just 19 innings with Rome to begin the year. By season's end, he had joined Minter in Mississippi for two appearances.

Sobotka's velocity is good, though not great. However, he gets great movement and his two-seamer can get a good number of grounders. His slider has plus-potential and while he has a changeup, he will mostly work off his fastball/slider. Sobotka could be in the majors sometime in 2017, though with just 75.2 innings as a professional, Atlanta might go slow with him. Either way, Sobotka looks like he has a shot to be a solid righty with high-leverage potential.



39. William Contreras, Catcher, 19 years-old, Grade: C+

Over two seasons, Contreras has shown that he could be capable of being a big sleeper in a system with rapidly improving catcher depth. Just 19 years-old, Contreras signed out of Venezuela and made his debut with the 2015 Dominican Summer League team. His triple slash of .314/.370/.413 was solid enough before you consider his age (17) and position.

Contreras moved up to the Gulf Coast League this year, where he shared time with Ricardo Rodriguez (acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade) and 26th rounder Alan Crowley. His numbers took a bit of a dive to .264/.346/.375. He displays a quick bat and there is some power projection.

Scouts rave about Contreras's defensive ability behind the plate and how he handles pitchers. I like his offensive potential as well. He's the type of player who could easily have a breakout campaign and jump up this list quickly. While he'll be ticketed for a stop in Danville for 2017, I do hope he plays his way up to Rome, which would further cement his prospect potential.

38. Bradley Roney, RHP, 24 years-old, Grade: C+

For three years, Roney has both excited Braves fans with big K numbers and frustrated Braves management because he often doesn't know where his pitches are going. In 67.2 innings last year in the high levels of the minor leagues, Roney struck out 88 - the most strikeouts by a Braves reliever and tied for 15th in the entire system. That strikeout rate was actually down a tad from 2015. Unfortunately, his walk rate continues to be his Achilles' heel.

In 2016, Roney issued 54 unintentional walks - a rate of about seven every nine innings. His strike percentage was about 6% below the league average. You can't survive for long doing that no matter how good his curve is - and it's really good. It's a major league quality pitch, but without pitching ahead in the count more frequently, hitters can let the curve dart below the strikezone.

Last year at this time, we looked at Mauricio Cabrera in much the same way as Roney. Sure, Cabrera had 100 mph heat and some good secondary stuff, but will he throw strikes? Cabrera was a higher rated talent, but Roney can have a similar impact on the major league roster if he can only throw strikes. No better time than 2017 to start.



37. Thomas Burrows, LHP, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

Acquired last week in the Mallex Smith trade, Burrows was the #117 pick of the 2016 draft. Before that, he became the all-time saves leader at the University of Alabama. It's easy to look over Burrows when the Braves also acquired Luiz Gohara in this deal, but Burrows has a good chance to get to the majors - and soon.

Burrows pitched in the short-season Northwest League after he was drafted and blitzed the circuit with 37 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. That comes out to a third of all batters he faced. He gave up a lot of hits, though a .367 BABIP will do that to you. The walk rate wasn't good, but competent enough to help Burrows earn a 2.88 FIP.

Burrows gets good sinking movement from his low-to-mid 90's heater and his slider improved dramatically in 2016. Lefties have a very difficult time even picking up the ball and that will likely continue to be an asset for the southpaw. Whether he can be a full-inning reliever and high-leverage asset will be something to watch as he moves up the ladder.

36. Connor Lien, OF, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

It was not the season many had hoped for Lien in 2016 - least of all the outfielder himself. In 2015, Lien burst onto the scene with a .285/.347/.415 clip in the pitching-friendly Carolina League with 36 extra-base hits and 34 steals. The season was awarded with a trip to the Arizona Fall League, which is where the video below came from

However, an early season hand injury put Lien on the shelf for over two months in 2016. The 22-year-old also struggled when he was in the field, slashing just .233/.320/.408 with a 33% strikeout rate. On the bright side, he continued to display tremendous defense in center field.

Lien possesses good pop and his defense includes an elite arm and great instincts and range. However, his bat still needs a bit more refining. The plus side is that even with his negatives last year, the .175 ISO and 9% walk rate help to put an optimistic spin on the season. He'll likely repeat Mississippi to begin 2017 and try to trend positive once again.



35. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C+

After a lost year to Tommy John surgery, Biddle will be given the chance to return and flourish in 2017. A former top prospect for the Phillies who the Braves acquired from the Pirates after the latter tried to sneak him through waivers. 

I recently wrote a scouting report about Biddle so I would rather not spend too much time rehashing it here so here are the highlights. Biddle is a former Top 100 Prospect who struggles with his release point. If he can find more consistency with it, he can get over his fastball and let the pitch work for him. His curveball has exceptional bite and is his best pitch. 

Biddle will have a shot to compete for a spot in the bigs this spring, but I imagine the Braves see 2017 as a year for Biddle to work on things rather than pressure himself with a big league assignment. A decent spring and a bill of health will allow him to begin the year in Gwinnett. If not, he could start a level lower. Regardless, Biddle could be a sneaky-good move by the Braves front office if he's able to rebound.



34. Caleb Dirks, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

After a year in the Dodgers' system, Dirks returned last year to the organization that spent a 15th round pick on him back in 2014. Not that it has mattered much to Dirks - he continues to dominate opposing hitters every step of the way.

In 143.1 innings, Dirks has a beautiful 1.32 ERA and an FIP under 3.00. He won't put up ridiculous strikeout numbers - especially for this system, but he's been close to a 30% K-rate regardless. What makes Dirk especially good is his control. He had about a 20% difference between his strikeouts and walks - an elite number worth celebrating.

Dirks doesn't have the best stuff and his velocity won't wow anyone, but he knows how to throw his pitches and hits his spots. Last year, that was especially true because about 43% of his pitches came with Dirks ahead in the count. The average is roughly 6-7% lower. Dirks may lack the ceiling of some relieving prospects the Braves have, but as long as he continues to pitch like he has, he'll have his opportunity to impress.

33. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Year 2 of Ricardo's time with the Braves was much healthier than his 10-start 2015 campaign, but the results remained underwhelming for the teenager who won't turn 20 until April 11. The last fact gives the Braves hope that 2017 will be the year Sanchez begins to scratch the surface of his talent.

Talent and stuff-wise, Sanchez can excite you on a good day with low 90's heat and a very good curveball. His delivery is smooth and he adds a developing changeup that often can make or break him on any given day depending on his feel for the pitch.

Sanchez is trying to put it all together. He's prone to a big inning and can sometimes lose focus. Undersized, Sanchez can resemble a bulldog when in trouble as he tries to get out of jams. He's a competitor and a strong worker - he just needs to be more consistent. It's hard to get noticed in this system if you weren't a #1 pick, but Sanchez has the stuff to be a sleeper in 2017.




32. Lucas Herbert, Catcher, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Kolby Allard's catcher in high school, Herbert was picked in the second round of the 2015 draft. Many assumed the Braves were hedging their bets in order to keep Allard from going to college rather than signing. However, I thought the Braves really liked what Herbert brought to the table and felt he was worth the pick. To this point, we haven't seen the results to support that contention.

It's early, yes, and Herbert was aggressively moved to Low-A Rome probably before he was ready. As a result, only 12 of the 367 PA he logged last year came against pitchers younger than him. Herbert struggled last year to find the right stance, the right setup with his hands, the right amount of batting gloves. He seems to me like a batter that really needs to rework much of what he does at the plate. If he can find consistency at the plate, his plus power will be a weapon and could be the difference between a starting and backup role in the majors should he get there.

Defensively, Herbert is a tremendous force behind the plate. He's incredibly athletic and shows great footwork along with great instincts at reading the ball. These skills will give him a chance to stick around even if his bat is still lagging behind, but I do hope the Braves show a bit more patience with him. He clearly did not appear ready for Rome and could use a return assignment. However, with so many catchers now in the system, finding at-bats for all of them is becoming a bit more difficult. Still, Herbert's power and defense are worth an extended look.


31. Ray-Patrick Didder, Outfield, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

The converted infielder had spent three years at rookie ball showing a good idea of the strikezone, but not much else. That changed in 2016 when the now center fielder settled into the position with Rome. In nearly 600 plate appearances, Didder posted a .361 wOBA with the aid of a .387 OBP. He added a .107 ISO to go with 37 steals.

One thing that stands out quickly about Didder is that he trusts his hands enough to crowd the plate. Last year, he was hit 39 times, the most in minor league baseball. While he has great speed, he's still developing an eye for when to steal. Defensively, he's a surprisingly rather good there despite being a middle infielder only a few years ago. He has the range to play center with a strong and accurate arm.

Up until this point, Didder has been about league average in age each year. That might change this year as a strong start with the Fire Frogs could get the 22-year-old promoted to Mississippi by summer. Such a move would cement his place as a strong outfield prospect. Either way, if Didder keeps developing like he did last year, the Braves will be very pleased with the Arubian native.


2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43


The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.