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Showing posts with label Mehkakis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mehkakis. Show all posts

Saturday, October 7, 2017

Where the Braves Sit Right Now

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
We could sit here for some time and keep talking about the surprising dismissal of John Coppolella, in-fighting between the remaining John's (Hart and Schuerholz), the possibility of pending sanctions, and so on. And you can be sure we will address more of that when the information is available. However, like it or not, the 2017-18 Hot Stove is warming up and it's time to start looking at next year's roster.

The Braves used 49 players in 2017 - down from the 60 utilized in both of the last two seasons. Part of that was a little better luck injury-wise, but the big reason the Braves used fewer players was that they were saying the days of random players you forgot were still playing were over. With depth increasing at Triple-A, the Braves were calling on an increasingly younger collection of talent as the season progressed. Of the eleven starters they used, eight were younger than 27. The Braves were looking to the future in many regards to their player usage.

Let's take a gander at what the roster makeup for 2018 looks like right now. This is just for general information as regardless of what happens when Major League Baseball finishes their investigation, the Braves will still be active in the trade market. They'll still sign free agents. The roster will change from what it currently looks like and life will eventually get back to normal.

Speaking of free agents, the weird thing about this team is that they really only have one major league free agent. A lot of the player movement will actually come from non-tenders and trades as the Braves look to open up room on their 40-man roster.

For what it's worth, my arbitration estimates are based on similar arbitration agreements from last winter. We may take a much more robust look at arbitration-eligible players later on, but for now, I used last year's results to help guide me. For players mentioned in the coming attractions, I'm limiting it to guys I project appearing in the majors next year if healthy and productive. Each renewal is given a $545,000 contract for 2018. Some will make more while some will make less due to the nature of split contracts and earning a different salary in the minors.

Starting Pitchers
Signed: Julio Teheran ($8M)
Arbitration: Mike Foltynewicz ($2.25M -Taijuan Walker, First Year, Super 2)
Renewal: Aaron Blair, Luis Gohara, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler
Option: R.A. Dickey ($8M team option, $500K buyout)
Free Agent: None (yay!)
Coming Attractions: Kolby Allard, Tyler Pike, Mike Soroka

There is a lot of depth here, though just as many question marks. Teheran and Foltynewicz both had good stretches during the season, but each struggled for the majority of the year. Gohara and Newcomb have the stuff, but will they consistently throw it for strikes? Is Sims better suited for the bullpen? Are Blair and Wisler done for? And will the Braves bring back Dickey?

I've been struck with how confident people are that the Braves aren't looking at possibly bringing in a big arm. This rotation, as its currently constructed, could be good, but the questions are far too numerous for me to be very bullish on that prospect. As far as Dickey goes, I imagine the Braves decline his option if he's still iffy on returning on 2018 and tell him that they'll be interested in bringing him back if he changes his mind. In the meantime, they'll start to kick the tires on a big move to stabilize the rotation.

Current Projection: $13.475 million

Relief Pitchers
Signed: Jim Johnson ($4.5M)
Arbitration: Rex Brothers ($1.42M - Rex Brothers :), Third Year), Sam Freeman ($908K - Evan Scribner, First Year), Ian Krol ($1.275M - Blake Wood, 2nd Year), Arodys Vizcaino ($2.55M - Jake Diekman, Third Year, Super 2), Daniel Winkler ($850K - Bruce Rondon, First Year)
Renewal: Jacob Lindgren, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, 
Free Agent: Jason Motte
Coming Attractions: Phil Pfeifer, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts, Caleb Dirks

Don't be fooled by so many names (nearly 20) - the bullpen will need some work. For starters, there are at least two non-tenders here with Brothers and Krol - and yes, I used Brothers as an arbitration comp for himself. In addition, many of the names in the renewal department have issues either from injury (Lindgren, Biddle, Rivero) or bad-to-average 2017 numbers (Cabrera, Hursh, Jackson). That leaves Johnson, Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, and Ramirez along with safe arbitration keepers like Freeman and Winkler. While there are some reinforcements mixed in, the Braves will likely want to find a couple of established arms to help out.

Current Projection: $13.713 million

Catchers
Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Coming Attractions: Kade Scivicque and Alex Jackson

Freitas and Sanchez will likely be designated for assignment soon so don't expect them to stick around. Before the Coppy mess, reports were that picking up Flowers' option was as good as done. That is likely still the plan because the value in comparison to the price is so high here. Catcher might be the easiest position to pencil in.

Current Projection: $7.5M

Infield
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21M)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3M - Lonnie Chisenhall, Third Year), Jace Peterson ($885K - Tim Beckham, First Year)
Renewal: Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz
Coming Attractions: Travis Demeritte, Austin Riley, Luis Valenzuela

Three of the four starting spots should be locked up with a number of cheap options for third base to fill out the infield. For what it's worth, I imagine the Braves will go cheap at third base, but there certainly is a chance they could get involved in some of the higher price options. One possible connection could formulate if Dayton Moore takes the Braves job and wants to bring Mike Moustakas with him. The arbitration cases here are both interesting. I wrote the other day that if the market doesn't develop for Adams - and I think there is a good chance it doesn't - I'd rather keep him than lose him for nothing. Peterson's poor play the last two years makes him a non-tender candidate, but a strong finish (.325/.460/.475 over his last 50 PA) may have bought him another year. He'll be out of options, but the Braves may see him as worth the investment. I don't foresee any coming attractions pushing their way on the roster this spring, but all three could appear in Atlanta by late summer next year.

Current Projection: $28.91 million

Outfield
Signed: Matt Kemp ($21.5M), Nick Markakis ($10.5M), Ender Inciarte ($4M)
Arbitration: Danny Santana ($600K, Ehire Adrianza, First Year)
Renewal: Lane Adams, Micah Johnson
Coming Attractions: Ronald Acuna, Dustin Peterson

The Braves will try to trade one of the corner outfielders this winter to open a spot for Acuna, which they may find easier said than done. As for Santana, he seems a goner due to his poor play after joining the Braves. This position isn't quite as easy to forecast as catcher, but we know there is probably going to be a mix of Inciarte, Acuna, and a veteran to be named later (likely Kemp). Micah Johnson rarely got a chance to play in Atlanta after being designated for assignment on twitter several weeks ago. Lane Adams, on the other hand, played his way into the mix to begin 2018.

Current Projection: $37.09 million

Other consideration: $2.75 million from the Padres

Roster Projection: $97.938 million

Note that this roster projection is just an estimate based both on salary arbitration figures that could be wrong and renewals that may or may not happen. Chances are that the player payroll projection right now is a bit lower than I have it, but I believe my total is a nice jumping off point.

So, let's try to put that nearly $98 million into perspective. Since 2014, the Braves have had opening day payrolls of $112M, $97M, $87M, and $123M. The last total was also last season when the Braves opened SunTrust Park. That gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that the Braves have a low-end player payroll cap of $120 million with a higher-end estimate of $130M. I'll take the difference and say that next year's cap is likely around $125 million.

Recall that the nearly $98 million total I gave you doesn't include Dickey's option and does include a number of non-tenders. The Braves may elect to go away from what I am predicting. They may also choose to non-tender someone like Matt Adams. The other way they could cut salary here is via trades - especially involving a corner outfielder. The best-case scenario involves dealing Kemp. Now, just dealing the outfielder won't add $21.5 million to the potential spending money for the Braves as they would almost certainly have to include money to facilitate a deal. But say they have to include $20M in two equal installments over the next two seasons - that's still $10M less on 2018's payroll. That's a really good reliever or two pretty good relievers.

Obviously, it's difficult to look at the future offseason because of the front office turmoil and it's unlikely to be resolved very soon. That said, there's still a team to build for 2018 and by my count, the Braves are looking at between $20 million and $30 million of spending room before the Hot Stove is actually, ya know, hot. That may not seem like a lot - the Braves spent nearly $26 million on Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Sean Rodriguez for 2017 (minus whatever the Pirates paid for Rodriguez) - but if spent much more wisely, the investment could bring big-time dividends for the Braves as they look to turn the page.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Will Matt Adams be a Brave in 2018?

WSB-TV
When Freddie Freeman went down, the Braves started Jace Peterson at first and signed James Loney. And for a minute, we thought that was the best the Braves could do. John Coppolella changed that by acquiring Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. While expectations weren't great for Adams, he was clearly an upgrade over in-house options - including Loney who asked for a release. Adams, who had been stuck on the Cardinals bench after they moved Matt Carpenter to first base, would take off after arriving in Atlanta. Over 39 games while Freeman was out, he blitzed the league to the tune of .285/.333/.589 with 12 HR. So good was his performance that when Freeman was ready to return, the Braves took him up on his suggestion and moved their franchise cornerstone to third base just to keep Adams in the lineup.

That would last most of July and while Adams continued to produce, he definitely cooled down. As the calendar changed over to August, the Braves moved Freeman back to first base, leaving Adams to play left field in Matt Kemp's absence or pinch-hit. He's hit just .227 since but has bashed four homers - including two pinch-hit moonshots.

As the season rolls to an end, the Braves have a choice to make with Adams. Let's look at the options:

Trade him: Easier Said Than Done

In 2017, Adams was paid $2.8 million for his services and will be arbitration-eligible for just one more season. He's a career .270/.315/.470 hitter with 75 home runs. He falls under the spectrum of productive, but not so productive that other teams are willing to spend much in terms of assets to acquire him. The Braves traded a corner infielder who has hit just 13 home runs in 201 games and might only profile as a first baseman because his defense at third base is so suspect. First basemen without power don't tend to keep a job for very long (i.e. James Loney).

Adams does have power - a good deal of it - and can hit the ball hard. Adams currently rests just outside the Top 50 in Barrels per plate appearance, which rates the quality of contact. When he puts the bat on the ball, it has a good chance of finding a hole. Does he have .283 ISO-type power, like he has shown this year? It's probably not something he can sustain, but he qualifies as a true power hitter with a career .199 ISO. That's a big boost to his value.

However, several things are working against the Braves as they consider dealing Adams.
  • He's platoon-dependent. Over his career, Adams has a .256 wOBA against lefties. It's just as miserable this season at .244. Unfortunately, every team has access to Fangraphs so they also have this information. Acquiring Adams only works if you can match him up with a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties in the Matt Diaz mold. 
  • He's position-dependent. Adams is a fine first baseman. He's not gifted at the position by any means, but since 2014, Adams actually profiles better than Freeman as a first baseman (4.8 UZR/150, 17 rPM, 15 DRS). Nobody is paying anyone for first baseman defense, though. Adams has played just 129.1 innings in left field and we simply can't gauge much of anything of his numbers, but the eye test suggests that Adams is probably going to be a negative defensively. It's too much of a stretch to believe he can play anywhere else. He's a first baseman who might play left field for you in a pinch. That limits his value to NL clubs who know they are going to have to platoon him. The AL teams that could have interest do have the DH, which opens up more possibilities.
  • He's under team control for just 2018. The Braves paid next-to-nothing to acquire Adams and that was with a year-and-a-half of team control. The team acquiring Adams will have even less.
None of these conditions will erase any chance the Braves have of trading Adams, but they certainly limit the opportunities. One thing could work in their favor, though. Of the 21 full-time qualified first basemen this season, five are free agents. Two others, Lucas Duda and Mike Napoli, didn't qualify but have been regulars in the lineup and could also be free agents this offseason (Napoli has an option). Further, a DH like Carlos Beltran will also hit the open market. In addition, the Angels are a team that might entertain the idea of improving their first base production after a combined 0.7 fWAR from C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, and Jefry Marte. Suffice it to say, the market is theoretically available for Adams.

That said, a number of open jobs at first base/DH doesn't mean the same thing as open jobs in center field or at shortstop, positions where the market is depressed by so few capable players at the position. A number of the free agents this offseason with history at first base were also free agents last year. This is because most teams look at first base in this regard - it's great if you have a Freeman, but if you don't, you can find something that will work. You don't even need to be in a rush. The Rays signed Logan Morrison a week before spring training for nearly $2 million less than they paid him the previous year. It worked out pretty well for them and they weren't alone. The first base market rarely invites huge paydays because teams can just wait it out and go bargain shopping.

With Adams likely to earn $4M to $5M in arbitration, would any team really spend assets to acquire a guy that resembles several free agents that are already available and won't require a prospect? For that matter, they could be even cheaper than Adams. This is a problem the Braves will face in regards to dealing Adams this winter.

Non-Tender Him: But Why?

The Braves could see Adams as a luxury they can do without and simply non-tender him to open a 40-man roster spot. Such a decision would be a mistake in my view.

At $5M or so, Adams is an expensive bench piece, but the Braves will probably be able to deal with that. If they don't sign a third baseman - and Ronald Acuna takes over in right field as many expect - the Braves will open the season with half of their position starters earning the major league minimum. It would be a fair assumption that two of their rotation members will also make the minimum. Paying $5M for a bench player becomes much more bearable when you aren't spending heavily at other positions.

Beyond that, Adams does have value - value that would be wasted as a non-tendered free agent. I mentioned many of the negatives earlier because that hurts his trade value, but his offensive value is still quite apparent as he has a .335 wOBA since 2013. That ranks 74th among 238 players and it's better than Adam Jones, Beltran, Todd Frazier, and Evan Gattis. And since we know that he's a platoon player, we can reasonably assume that his wOBA would only look better if you limited it to facing right-hand pitching. And why assume when we can just look it up? Since 2013, Adams' .355 wOBA against right-hand pitching ranks 59th of 482 players (min. 370 PA against RHP).

If the Braves were in a financial crunch, I'd understand non-tendering Adams if a trade market never materialized - which is a real possibility. But I don't believe Atlanta will have to worry about that so why not keep Adams? Further, perhaps a trade market would come together as players go down or don't perform after spring camp opens up. Regardless, just cutting Adams is short-sighted and I think more of John Coppolella than that.

Keep Him: Cause Why The Hell Not?

If the Braves can't trade Adams and non-tendering him is a dumb move, that leaves the third option - keep him. And frankly, it might be the best option available even if Atlanta gets much interest in Adams this offseason.

The Braves are unlikely to trade Matt Kemp this winter. It'd be great if they can, but the sheer amount of financial responsibility the Braves would have to shoulder just to unload Kemp might be too much for the Braves to accept. Trading Nick Markakis to open up a spot for Acuna seems like the easier and more likely play. That leaves Atlanta to hope Kemp loses all the weight, keeps it off, and performs once again. Pretty much the same thing they hoped for last winter.

Whatever the case, the Braves seem stuck here. Here's the thing, though. If you are willing to play Kemp in left field with all of his atrocious defense, why wouldn't you also be willing to play Adams out there? Both players need a defensive caddy (Hi, Lane Adams!) and with Kemp seemingly always dealing with hamstring and knee issues, having Matt Adams' bat around could be useful for the Braves. Yeah, the defense sucks, but honestly, Adams could be better than Kemp defensively. Here's a fun stat for all of you Josh Browns of the world. Sprint speed is measured by feet per second. 447 players qualify currently and ranking 398th is Kemp with a sprint speed of 25.6 ft/sec. Adams is slightly quicker at 26.1 ft/sec. While speed isn't everything (Ender Inciarte ranks 173rd overall), there's at least an argument that Adams is a comparable - maybe even better - left fielder than Kemp. Probably not better, but Kemp is so bad that Adams can't be any worse. Presumably, with even more time in left field, Adams stands a shot at improving. Not a good one, but we know Kemp isn't going to get any better.

Pinch-Hit Homers by the Braves
Remember when I said that keeping Adams maybe even better than trading him? Think about what the Braves might get for trading Adams. Well, we don't really know that, but we can make the reasonable assumption that it won't be greater than what the Braves gave up to originally acquire him. That would mean Atlanta would likely receive a borderline Top 75 prospect in this organization. Probably something between what they received for Jaime Garcia (Huascar Ynoa) and Brandon Phillips (Tony Sanchez). Now, that player could be a fun project, but it's probably going to be a guy who won't ultimately play for the Braves or turn into a good tradeable asset. And by the way...the Braves' lower minor league teams are already packed with project players.

Keeping Adams gives the Braves a bat off the bench - something they lacked when the 2017 season opened - who provides depth at 1B and LF. That depth could be important when you consider that Freeman has missed about 80 games to injury over the last three years (including a healthy 2016). Conversely, Kemp bends over and misses two weeks. That's being mean, but having Adams for depth could be useful to help the Braves should either player go down. Further, Adams could fetch a better prospect from a desperate team later. That last part is wishful thinking, but it's not impossible.

In the end, short of being surprised on the trade market this offseason, the best bet is to keep Adams moving forward into the 2018 season. Do you agree? Let me know in the comment section.

Monday, August 14, 2017

Yet Another Ronald Acuna/Andruw Jones Piece - But This One is Different!

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
I am on the record with this. I love Ronald Acuna. He makes my heart flutter. When he hits a home run, to quote Bowling for Soup, "all the wind blows and the angels sing." He's the greatest thing since sliced bread. In fact, he's like pretzel bread, which as we all know, improves bread to another level. Ronald Acuna is hope and hope is good.

But the Braves have, as our own Stephen Tolbert said a few weeks back, a corner outfield problem. Worse, it is a problem that could - I repeat, could - continue into 2018. Where would Acuna fit in if the Braves are incapable of finding a trading partner willing to take on Matt Kemp's salary and/or Nick Markakis's...Markaisian averageness? Should the Braves simply take their losses and release Kemp or Markakis (likely the latter) just to open up a spot for Acuna? Should he stay in the minors until the Braves find a taker for one of their older corner outfielders - despite unreal numbers this season?

Here's the thing, Braves fans. The Braves don't have to have an either/or. They can have a team next year that includes Kemp, Markakis, and Acuna. Just so you don't freak out, Ender Inciarte also fits into this arrangement. And what's even better is that the Braves have done it before

You've probably seen a lot - and I mean A LOT - of comparisons between Andruw Jones and Acuna. Both climbed from A-ball to Triple-A in their Age-19 seasons. Both were dynamic outfielders and elite prospects in baseball. Whether these comparisons are fair or not, they are inevitable. There are just too many similar factors here. And why stop now? Why not follow what the Braves did in 1997 with the then 20-year-old Andruw Jones? Why not use Acuna as the fourth outfielder for a year?

I know what you're thinking - the Braves won't do that because Acuna is too valuable to be wasted in a fourth outfielder role. It's also difficult to see a possibility where Acuna isn't better than either Kemp nor Markakis in 2018. And for the record, I don't mean Acuna should be the fourth outfielder in a way Lane Adams is a fourth outfielder. I mean only to use Acuna like Andruw Jones was used in 1997.

Let's flashback to that year for a second. While every Braves fan remembers 1996 and Andruw homering twice in the Bronx during the World Series, the Braves didn't hand the young man a spot in the starting lineup to begin 1997. It's why Michael Tucker had an opportunity to hit the first home run in Turner Field history. The Braves opened the season with a platoon between Tucker and Andruw. When he wasn't in the starting lineup, Andruw would play often in a pinch-hitting/defensive replacement role. Of the first 25 games, he played in 24. He remained in that timeshare until mid-June, when Kenny Lofton went down with an injury. It allowed Andruw the shot to play nightly. When Lofton returned, Andruw was relegated back into his backup role, filling in against left-hand pitching, playing defense in right and left, and occasionally spelling Lofton in center field. He started 96 games - fewer than Tucker, Lofton, and Ryan Klesko - but more than one might expect for a fourth outfielder. He also played an additional 51 games in the field for a total of 147 games of experience in the outfield. Add that with six more games in a pinch-hitting capacity and Andruw Jones actually finished second on the 1997 Braves in games played.

Now, does this situation compare to a potential 2018 Braves' squad? You better believe it. Consider these two scenarios.

Scenario #1 - The Braves Can't Find a Taker for Kemp

This possibility is a likelihood at this point. Many who questioned the Hector Olivera trade last summer pointed out that Kemp's value was only going down. This season, he has been a replacement level player due to atrocious defense and bad baserunning metrics. His offense isn't bad (though a rising groundball rate is troubling), but the belief that he was a changed man after coming over from the Padres is a bit overblown. He's essentially the same player as he was in 2015, his first season in San Diego.

Kemp has been durable to an extent, but many would argue that has been to the club's detriment. Kemp plays hurt - largely because his knees are shot and though he's still just 32, it seems like he's much older. Still, he averaged 153 games in the three years before this so he knows how to stay in the lineup. Two trips to the DL this season, though, and nagging injuries throughout the season point to the possibility that his 150-game seasons might be a thing of the past. That's actually not the worst thing, by the way. Players with Kemp's issues need regular rest to make them better able to deal with a long season.

Since the Braves are unlikely to find a team with much interest in sharing the burden of the nearly $40 million the Braves are on the hook for over the next two seasons, Kemp seems likely to return in 2018. Wouldn't it be nice to have both a capable defender able to hide Kemp in late games and a capable hitter able to contribute offensively? Do you really feel it's out of the realm of possibility that Atlanta will need a contingency plan should Kemp miss a month or more of the 2018 season? Acuna provides a ready replacement.

There's also the possibility of keeping Matt Adams and giving him at-bats to keep Kemp fresh. I'm not sure that it makes a lot of sense to keep two guys who still couldn't cover left field even if MLB allowed the Braves to play both at the same time, but I understand the whole "if Kemp is bad at defense, does it matter that Adams also is?" Nevertheless, the team could still use a defensive replacement for either.

Scenario #2 - Markakis Attracts a Lukewarm Market

Nick Markakis (2015-Present)
vs. AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
RHP .290 .378 .412 .341 112
LHP .256 .308 .324 .280 71
Since coming to Atlanta, Nick Markakis has wRC+ of 71 and a .280 wOBA against left-hand pitching. That's abysmal. Hiding that with Acuna would definitely be useful in a world where Markakis might not attract a lot of attention on the open market should the Braves attempt to deal him. Further, Markakis's defense, while not as severely detrimental to the team as Kemp's, remains an issue for Atlanta.

The Braves could - and probably would - be open to paying down some of Markakis's $10.5M remaining salary, but for what? A no-name prospect? Say what you will about Markakis and I have, but the guy is consistent, durable, and consistent. Yes, I know I said that twice, but compliments work best in threes and I couldn't think of another one. With the very real possibility of Kemp going down for significant time in 2018, do the Braves really want to lose Markakis, who again is durable (and consistent)?

Now, you might say that these two scenarios don't exist in a vacuum and you would be right. The Braves could trade Markakis, for example, and sign a good enough outfielder or platoon Dustin Peterson and Lane Adams to deal with any possible injury to Kemp. For that matter, Kemp could stay relatively healthy. Furthermore, Matt Adams is the mix as well (though his numbers have fallen considerably since his big start with the Braves). You might even say, "why put off the inevitable? Ronald Acuna is the future and the future is ready to begin."

It's a tough argument to counter. Playing Ronald Acuna every day is certainly more exciting than watching either the consistently durable Markakis or the kneeless Kemp meander around the outfield. But is it best for the player? I'll use two examples here. First, let's look back at Andruw Jones. He spent a year playing nearly every game, but only starting slightly more than half. Did it stunt his growth? Not even a little. He improved across the board the following season and was an All-Star three years later. While many would argue that Andruw never reached the potential we set out for him, it didn't change the fact that he had a very productive - and possibly Hall of Fame worthy - career.

The other example is Dansby Swanson. Like Acuna, Swanson was an exciting player who rushed through the minors. He was hyped up as the future Derek Jeter and a frontrunner for the 2017 Rookie of the Year. But baseball happened. Now, the Braves are simply trying to jump-start Swanson so he can pivot into 2018 on a high note. If such a thing happened to Acuna, wouldn't it be nice to be able to have Markakis and Kemp in-house? Sure, neither are world beaters, but what are the chances that another Johan Camargo bails out the Braves here?

In the end, I would simply say this - I love Acuna as a player. I want only success for the young man. I believe in him. I also think that maybe the best way of bringing him to the big time is in a smaller role. Again, I'm not saying give him 200 plate appearances like you might a typical fourth outfielder. He'd play often as a platoon bat in right field, keeping Kemp fresh in left field, and giving Inciarte breathers in center field. He'd be part of the mix, not a traditional backup. And either through a midseason trade of Kemp or Markakis or the latter leaving after 2018, Acuna would simply slide into a starting spot.

It worked for Andruw. More than 20 years later, it's time to try it again with Acuna.

Monday, August 7, 2017

A Waiver Trade Match from Heaven

A homecoming for 2 former Orioles.

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Flickr
It was 3-4 days ago that Braves fans received word that Jim Johnson and R.A. Dickey were placed on revocable waivers. While they’re likely not the only players that were placed on revocable waivers, those were the 2 that made it to the mainstream media. My guess, there are at least 3 more guys that the Braves pushed out there but weren’t comfortable in letting the news leak to their fan-base (Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis).

For those not in the know, if a player(s) is claimed on revocable waivers, the 2 teams have 48 hours to work out a deal, and the deal could be as simple as allowing the other team take the full value of the contract(s). If a deal cannot be worked out, then the team that placed said player(s) on revocable waivers pulls the player(s) back and said player(s) have to remain with the team for the rest of the season.

 I’ve been scouring the MLB standings looking for matches in a deal for some of the Braves more expensive veterans. Make no mistake, these are tricky and, for the most part, pipedreams. However, I think I might have stumbled upon a great match. The Orioles, even with a starting pitching ERA that nears 6 and is 29th in all of baseball, remain only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. The writing’s on the proverbial wall for this team and it may be their last time to contend for the foreseeable future. But nonetheless, they are in the thick of it. While they’re likely not in a position to make big moves as their farm is very weak and they’d need to keep any MLB talent around through this season, they could look for small boosts to aid in their push to Wild Card berth. And it just so happens that the Braves could aid in giving that push.

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Both Jim Johnson and Nick Markakis have a long-running history with the Orioles. Jim played with them from 2006-2013, taking on the full-time closer role in 2012 and had 50 and 51 save seasons in ‘12 and ‘13. Nick Markakis was the beloved right-fielder for the O’s from 2006-2014, doing very much the same as he’s done for the Braves with the exception that he was younger and about 10-15% better in all facets of his game. They were both well-liked in the clubhouse and many faces from their time there are still in-house and would welcome them back. There are tricks to this as both guys are under contract for 2018. While Jim still has some perceived value in a reliever’s role, Markakis is pretty much shot and is playing at a replacement level. The positive is that the guys the O’s are running out there in LF are playing at the level of a leper. Yes...it’s been bad. But the Braves aren’t going to get the Orioles to pay the entire contracts of both players without taking a hit themselves...no sirree. To do a deal like this, the Braves will have to take something back, and that’s where we turn to Ubaldo Jimenez.

Jimenez, who once threw a no-hitter against the Braves when he was slinging for the Rockies, has been downright putrid in an Orioles uniform and has posted a 6.31 ERA this year, is owed 13.5MM for the 2017 season, but is a free agent in 2018. I feel like the Orioles would be happy to wash their hands of Ubaldo and welcome back 2 guys that they know and love.

 So, here’s the deal:
 Braves get Ubaldo Jimenez, Chance Sisco

Orioles get R.A. Dickey, Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM

Considering the Braves would be taking 4.25MM of Ubaldo’s salary and the Orioles would be taking on 7.5MM for 2017, the 3MM is there to offset the cost. In return, the Braves get a prospect that has somewhat fallen from grace that can head to AAA and try to recapture the magic that made him one of the game’s best catching prospects. I’ve not talked about Dickey going until the proposed deal, but he makes a lot of sense for them. There are guys in their rotation that are underachieving and throwing a knuckleballer right in the midst could be the boost that’s needed to make them successful.

This is only 1 of many ways that the Braves could look to in dealing veterans, but if they wait too long or til offseason, the chances of making a deal without eating a HUGE chunk of cash becomes less and less. What say you? Would you alter it? Got another idea? Let’s hear from the peanut gallery!

 Go Braves!

Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Recap: Sweep, Buying/Selling, Early Freeman at 3B Metrics

Welcome to this week's quick Monday Recap. With just three games to review because of the All-Star Break, we won't have to spend too much time on them. Want to point out a few things before we look back at the week that just concluded. We posted our Midseason Top 50 Prospects last week with contributors Ryan Cothran and Stephen Tolbert pitching in. Ryan's been with WOW for awhile now, but Tolbert recently joined. He's already posted two columns - one on the prospect of trading Ozzie Albies and the other on comparing Sean Newcomb and Rich Hill's respective spin rates on their curveballs. Both are worthy of your consideration.

And with that said, it's on with the show.

July 10-13, Idle
All-Star Break

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July 14, 4-3 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta twice gave up single-run leads, but Freddie Freeman put the Braves ahead for good with a two-run single in the 8th. Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a single before Brandon Phillips doubled to set the stage for Freeman's heroics. Freeman also broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth with a deep home run. Atlanta got their other run in the first when Inciarte doubled and came around later in the inning on a Matt Kemp two-out single. R.A. Dickey continued his solid work, throwing six innings and allowing just one on eight hits and two walks. He also struck out four. Sam Freeman allowed a home run to Paul Goldschmidt while Jose Ramirez wasn't helped by a bad thow by Tyler Flowers on a stolen base attempt. His throw went into center field and allowed a runner to reach third. A wild pitch briefly put the D'Backs on top. Jim Johnson worked a perfect ninth with a strikeout of Goldschmidt to end the game.

July 15, 8-5 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
The Braves used 14 hits and two home runs from each of their last two opening day second basemen to score eight runs and win Saturday's night affair. Phillips got the Braves on the board with a game-tying home run in the third, his eighth. He then put the Braves on top in the fifth with a RBI double. The lead was short lived as a pair of runs, charged to Mike Foltynewicz put Arizona ahead in the sixth. The Braves would fight back in the bottom half of the inning. With old friend Randall Delgado on the mound, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis led off the inning with singles. Delgado got the next two, but Dansby Swanson worked a walk. Lane Adams followed with a bases-clearing pinch-hit double. Andrew Chafin replaced Delgado and his first pitch was hit by Ender Inciarte for a RBI single to score Adams and put the Braves up 6-3. Kurt Suzuki picked up a RBI in the 7th and after the Diamondbacks scored twice in the 8th to pull closer, Jace Peterson led off the 8th with a pinch-hit home run that still hasn't landed. Johnson cruised through the ninth for another save. It was an average night for Folty, who struggled with his control over his 5.1 innings.

July 16, 7-1 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta gets to .500 with an efficient offensive attack. They would leave just four runners on base while scoring seven runs. In the third, Matt Kemp bashed a three-run bomb and Matt Adams smacked his 15th later in the frame. That was the game-changing frame for the Braves, who scored in each of the first four innings. Brandon Phillips doubled three times and drove in tow runs while Ender Inciarte singled twice. Jaime Garcia pitched well, allowing just one run in seven innings. He scattered four singles, walked three, and struck out seven. Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris worked perfect frames with Morris striking out a pair. The sweep at home was the Braves' first sweep at SunTrust since the four-game set to open the park against the Padres in mid-April.

This week's Record: 3-0
Season Record: 45-45, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9.5 GB

Minor League Week in Review
Gwinnett: 3-1...40-52, 2nd Place in the North, 9.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-5...6-17 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the Southern, 6 GB
Florida: 2-3...9-13 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the North, 4.5 GB
Rome: 1-4...8-12 (2nd Half), 6th Place in the Southern, 7.5 GB
Danville: 2-4...11-13, 3rd Place in the West, 7 GB
GCL: 3-3...9-9, 2nd Place in Northeast, 1.5 GB
DSL: 1-4...11-24, 7th Place in Northwest, 13 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves stay at home for three more games with the Cubs coming for a visit for two nights games before a matinee on Wednesday. It's the first time the Braves have faced the Cubs this season and they'll return the favor at the end of August by visiting Wrigley. After Wednesday's game, the Braves head on a cross-country trip to visit the Dodgers for four games to finish the week. The first three will be late night games for Braves fans while Sunday's will be a mid-afternoon start at 4:10 EST.

Three Last Things
1) Buying Or Selling?

It's hard not to have this debate. After sweeping Arizona, the Braves have reached .500 for the first time since early April. They are midway through a tough part of their schedule that included games with the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and a second series with Arizona in addition to the one that just completed. They've held their own so far, winning 5-of-9.

The Braves General Manager, John Coppolella, has been attached to Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Justin Verlander, and Michael Fulmer. Atlanta is also said to have an interest in Jurickson Profar. What the Braves ultimately may do may be decided by July 26. At that point, the Braves will have finished a 10-game stretch against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. If they are still at .500 or higher, the Braves might be an aggressive buyer. If they slip, they could sell.

Regardless, Braves fans universally agree about one thing - it feels good to care again.

2) Roster Issues

For the first time in a long time, the Braves might be sending down productive players because of a roster crunch. With Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez likely to return tomorrow, Lane Adams might be sent back to Gwinnett. Adams has been one of the few guys able to come off the bench and get a pinch hit here-and-there for the Braves. His six pinch-hits not only lead the team, but count for a quarter of all of Atlanta's pinch-hits this season. He's also belted a homer and added a double. But with Santana fresh off a five-hit game on a rehab assignment and super utility player Rodriguez ready to contribute, Adams seems pushed out for now. Jace Peterson, who joined Adams and Santana as the only Braves to have a pinch-hit homerun this season on Sunday, will likely head down as well.

Further roster decisions will have to be made in regards to a pitcher. Dan Winkler began his rehab assignment a month ago and is only given 30 days before the Braves have to make a decision. He's struck out nine over as many minor league innings, but also gave up eight runs. His rehab appears either halted, though. He hasn't pitched in ten days.

Something similar happened to Chaz Roe. His rehab assignment was halted after the Braves designated him for assignment. It didn't make much news, but on Thursday, he was outrighted to Gwinnett. I have seen reports that Winkler's rehab received a rare 30-day extension. Over the coming days, we'll see if that was accurate or if Winkler went through a similar fate as Roe. (Edit: According to Mark Bowman, it was accurate as the Braves have extended Winkler's rehab 30 days. H/t to Dan Keetz for this.)

3) Early Defensive Metrics Unkind to FF3B

It takes a long time for defensive metrics to really even out to the point that they tell us anything valuable. Often, we don't want to put too much importance in them without a career baseline to compare numbers to.

So...don't take this seriously.

Freddie Freeman's defensive metrics are HORRIBLE at third base! -89.3 UZR/10! Wow! He's handled ten plays and committed an error. Of the three plays in his zone, he's made two successful plays. In addition, Freeman is 9-of-10 on routine plays according to Inside Edge Fielding. He's 0-for-2 on remote plays (expected rate is between 1 and 10%) To be fair, he hasn't made a remote play at first base since 2014.

Well, what did you expect from a first baseman playing third base anyway? Of course, the Braves have also won a number of those games so they are getting exactly what they hoped for.

Monday, July 10, 2017

First Half Timeline for the Braves

By EricEnfermero [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons
The Braves enter the All-Star Break at 42-45, 9.5 games out of the Eastern Division and nine games behind the Rockies for the second Wild Card spot. Two other teams, the Cardinals and Cubs, are a half-game in front of them. Their expected win-loss record is actually worse at 39-48, a product of a bad pitching staff.

How did we get here? Here's a timeline of the first half of the season.

April 3: Opening day and the Braves fall 6-0 to the Mets. Their opening day roster included Emilio Bonifacio and Eric O'Flaherty, two guys the Braves brought back after they both struggled in 2016 for Atlanta. Not on the roster is Sean Rodriguez, who some believe will miss the season after he was involved in a car accident with a drunk driver.

April 17: After losing six of their first seven ballgames, the Braves won five consecutive games to pull to .500. This streak was capped off by a four-game sweep to open SunTrust Park, including a walk-off 5-4 win against the Padres after Dansby Swanson singled with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth to finish the series. The Braves were 6-6 on the year. They would lose their next six straight and have yet to get back to .500.

April 19: In a sign of things to come, Julio Teheran is hammered for seven runs over four innings against the Nationals in his second start at SunTrust. In nine home starts during the first half of the season, Teheran allowed four or more runs six times. He only allowed that many runs in nine road starts once. The Braves have won only two of Teheran's home starts and have lost just two of his road starts.

April 29: The Braves score double digit runs in back-to-back games for the only time this season as they beat the Brewers 10-8 and 11-3. The first victory came after Bartolo Colon and Jason Motte combined to put the Braves in an 8-4 hole entering the seventh. Freddie Freeman finished the comeback with a two-run homer in the top of the ninth.

May 10: Atlanta concludes a low point in the season as they follow up the two wins against the Brewers mentioned above by losing eight-of-nine games to drop to a season-worst nine games under .500. This included a 16-5 bloodbath at the hands of the Mets on May 3 in which Colon gave up five runs in four innings. Of his 13 starts with the Braves, Colon surrendered five or more runs eight times - including his final four starts.

May 17: The Braves have righted the ship, winning five-of-six, but the fifth win was a costly one as Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Aaron Loup nails Freddie Freeman on the wrist during his fifth-inning at-bat. Freeman is immediately removed and further tests reveal a fracture. He's originally expected to miss at least two months.

May 20: John Coppolella decisively acts to fill the hole created by Freeman's injury as he acquires Matt Adams from the Cardinals. Adams, who had lost essentially all of his playing time after the Cardinals moved Matt Carpenter to first, makes an immediate impact with the Braves. In his second game, he blasts a two-run homer in a 5-2 win over the Pirates. The next night, after Jim Johnson blows a save, Adams finishes a two-run rally with an RBI walk-off single. He had also homered in the game.

June 7: Three days after scoring 13 runs, the Braves set a season-high with 14 runsagainst the Phillies. Nick Markakis picks up five RBI with three doubles while Matt Adams and Dansby Swanson each homer. Mike Foltynewicz throws seven shutout frames - though the Braves offense didn't need such excellent pitching.

June 10: Atlanta plays their only double-header of the first half and drops both games to the Mets. They scored just two runs and waste Sean Newcomb's debut. The lefty was masterful over 6.1 innings. Only an error, charged to Newcomb, led to a run. He walked two and struck out seven, but takes the loss. With a Game Score of 68, it is tied for the eighth-best major league debut in Braves history.

June 12: The Braves make Kyle Wright the fifth overall draft choice of the 2017 Draft. Wright, the ace of the Vanderbilt staff, was lauded for his pitchability, stuff, and potential for a quartet of plus pitches. They would later add Drew Waters, a player with potential five-tool skills. The Braves showed with this draft that they were willing to play the hand that was dealt to them. A year after championing the quantity of prospects from a deep draft, they aimed at hitting on a few quality picks in this year's shallow draft.

June 17: Jaime Garcia gives up six runs, but the Braves win 8-7. It was the beginning of a bad streak of games for Garcia to finish the half. Including this game against the Marlins, Garcia surrendered five or more runs in four consecutive starts with an ERA of 9.41 during those starts. The Braves offense bails him out enough to win two of those games, though. Before the streak, Garcia looked like this year's Shelby Miller with a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 3.16.

June 21: Braves walk-off for the third time in six days and for the sixth time during the first half. After Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson blow a two-run lead - again robbing Newcomb of a win - Matt Kemp hits the third homerun of the game for the Braves, a two-run bomb to lead to a 5-3 win. The previous weekend, Brandon Phillips had smoked hits through the Marlins infield to win in walk-off fashion in consecutive days. The Braves would follow up the Giants walk-off win by winning their next three to get to 36-38.

June 30: Mike Foltynewicz comes oh, so close to history. He tosses eight no-hit innings before a homerun to open the ninth breaks the hearts of many Braves fans who had stayed up late to watch and listen to the game in Oakland. What made the result even worse was that it looked like Foltynewicz had gotten a strikeout earlier in the at-bat, but the umpire disagreed. Foltynewicz throws 119 pitches during the game and in addition to the one hit allowed, he walked four and struck out eight.

July 4: Originally expected to miss at least two months, Freddie Freeman returns after just 44 games  to face the Astros on Independence Day. To help the team, Freeman volunteers to move to third base to keep Matt Adams in the lineup. Atlanta goes 24-20 without their best player. Unfortunately, the Braves will get demolished 16-4. The next night is nearly just as demoralizing as the Braves get beat by possibly the best team in baseball, 10-4. Also on the fourth, the Braves officially released Bartolo Colon. He lasted 13 games with the team.

July 7: With Braves fans excited about their team's prospects for hunting down the Nationals, Jim Johnson falls apart in a 5-4 walkoff loss to the NL East leaders. Atlanta had a chance to once again get to one-game under .500, but Johnson, who has struggled this year when used on back-to-back days, blows a three run lead. Ian Krol finishes the sad effort by giving up a walk-off hit in the tenth.

July 9: A day after smashing the Nationals 13-0, the Braves finish with a disappointing split of their final series against of the first half after losing 10-5.

Atlanta will be back in action on Friday as they welcome the Diamondbacks to Atlanta for the beginning of a six-game homestand that will also include the Cubs.

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Speed Has a New Measurement

On Tuesday, MLB released a new metric called Sprint Speed. The metric, which is part of the Statcast collection of numbers, is defined as "feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window."

The range is typically 23 ft/sec on the poor side and 30 ft/sec on the strong side. 27 ft/sec is about average.

Let's look at where the Braves sit.

Catcher
Tyler Flowers comes in at about 25.8. Now, that sounds below average, but you have to remember that we're talking about catchers here. Only ten catchers were at 26.5 ft/sec or better. For a little more perspective, former Braves catcher Evan Gattis came in a bit faster at 26.2 ft/sec, which is why he's a former outfielder, right? (sarcasm) The last qualified catcher was Brian McCann. 23.4. Only Albert Pujols was slower. By the way, I might pay to see them in a 40-yard dash.

First Base
Freddie Freeman is an agile first baseman. He ranked 26.6 ft/sec, which is about league average and just outside the Top 10 for first basemen. Matt Adams wasn't far behind, though, coming in at 26.2 ft/sec. Will Myers led this lot with a 28.5 ft/sec metric.

Second Base
Brandon Phillips is one of the slowest second basemen in baseball. In fact, he mimicked Freeman with a 26.6 ft/sec. To be fair, let's not make more of this stat than it is. It's a measure of speed and that's it. It's not a measure of defense or base stealing. Both skills can be improved with speed or hurt by a lack of, but speed is just one of the many variables that go into playing defense or stealing a base. Only four 2B rated lower than Phillips. Jace Peterson was around the average for this position at 27.2 ft/sec. Guys with former Braves ties like Jose Peraza (28.3 ft/sec) and Brandon Drury (27.3 ft/sec) also made the leaderboard.
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Shortstop
At 28.2 ft/sec, Dansby Swanson ranked sixth among shortstops. Swanson's speed is not a huge part of his game, but when he turns it on, he can make up some ground in a hurry. Former Braves like Nick Ahmed (28.1 ft/sec), Andrelton Simmons (27.9 ft/sec), and Elvis Andrus (27.6 ft/sec) also made the list.

Third Base
One thing is for sure. Freddie Freeman is just about as fast as Rio Ruiz, who came in at 26.7 ft/sec, and Adonis Garcia (26.6 ft/sec). All three are significantly slower than Johan Camargo, who matched fellow third baseman Jose Reyes with a 27.6 ft/sec. We didn't have the stat when Reyes was at his quickest, though. It was enough for Camargo to land in the Top 10.

Left Field
Matt Kemp is not the fleetest of foot. That's a bit of an understatement. Again, this is just speed, but Matt Kemp ranks dead last among LF with a 25.7 ft/sec. To put that into perspective, Kyle Schwarber is faster at 26 ft/sec. Melky Cabrera is faster at 26.0. I mentioned Gattis and he's leaving Kemp in the dust with a 26.2 ft/sec sprint speed. Ryan Klesko is warming up to make Kemp look dumb. Speed is one of many skills that make up a player, but Kemp might want to look into Forrest Gump's magic shoes. His mom told him they'll take him anywhere! Then again, after last night's catch, maybe he already did.

Center Field
Ender Inciarte is an elite center fielder, but he doesn't have elite center field speed. In fact, he's near the bottom with a 27.5 ft/sec, ninth worst. And that speaks to the limitations of this stat. While Inciarte is not Mallex Smith fast (29.2 ft/sec), it doesn't affect his ability to play his position as well as anyone in the game. It does mean that Inciarte probably won't be stealing thirty bases any time soon, however.

Right Field
You do have to give Inciarte a lot of credit because he's flanked by two of the slowest corner outfielders in baseball. Nick Markakis ranked as the sixth slowest right fielder with a 26.4 ft/sec rating. It's about a full one sec/ft slower than Jason Heyward, the man he replaced. Markakis is better at playing right field than Kemp is at playing left field so there's that. All told, the Braves have possibly the slowest starting outfield in baseball.

What do you think about this new stat? Does it tell you anything new and were you surprised by the metric's findings?

Monday, June 12, 2017

Monday Roundup: Long Week Begins and Ends With Disappointment

With eight games at home on the schedule against division foes, last week had a chance of being a springboard for the Braves into a big June. Instead, it ended up a losing effort that included a disheartening doubleheader loss.

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June 5: 11-4 LOSS vs. Phillies
This one got away from Bartolo Colon early. He was charged with eight runs in his 3.2 innings. Not that it mattered, but Sam Freeman and Eric O'Flaherty each gave up homers as well. Johan Camargo had a big day at the plate with a double and a triple. Ender Inciarte and Brandon Phillips also had two hits a piece with Inciarte reaching ten doubles on the season. He's currently on pace for 26 doubles this season. His career high is 27 set in 2015. He's already tied his career-high in homers, also set in 2015.

June 6: 3-1 LOSS vs. Phillies
Atlanta got to Aaron Nola early with a double by Phillips and a RBI single by Nick Markakis in the first, but the offense managed just five hits the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Phillies were able to scratch three runs across against Jaime Garcia to pull out the win. Phillips led Braves hitters with two hits. Garcia went 7.2 innings in the loss and struck out four. Jason Motte stranded a runner while striking out the only hitter he faced. Jason Hursh, who was just called up to replace the DL'd Colon, tossed a one-hit ninth with a K. It was the fourth time he had been called up from the minors, but just the third time he had been used. He would be demoted and recalled again later in the week.

June 7: 14-1 WIN vs. Phillies
A 4-0 game entering the bottom of the seventh turned into a blow-out as the Braves set a new season-high in runs scored. Markakis doubled in Phillips for the game's first run in the fourth. An inning later, after Tyler Flowers reached on an error and Rio Ruiz worked a walk, Dansby Swanson unloaded for his sixth homer of the year. He's now tied for third on the team in homeruns. Markakis drove in five runs with three hits - all doubles. In addition to his big fly, Swanson singled twice to finish with three hits. Danny Santana had a pinch-hit two-run double and Matt Adams finished with three ribbies and a homer. Mike Foltynewicz didn't need much help, either. He finished with seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits, two walks, and picking up four K's. Jose Ramirez and Luke Jackson finished from there with Jackson yielding a run on three hits.

June 8: 3-1 WIN vs. Phillies
R.A. Dickey was masterful over seven innings, allowing just three hits and one run. More impressively, he walked nobody and struck out eight. Meanwhile, the Braves scored twice in the first to claim a lead they would not surrender. Phillips, Matt Kemp, Adams, and Flowers all had two-hit games with all but Adams adding a double. Flowers was catching Dickey for the first time this season and while he was charged with a passed ball, the results from Dickey seemed to indicate Flowers would get another chance to catch the knuckler. Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol teamed up to pitch the eighth before Jim Johnson closed the door in the ninth.

June 9: 3-2 WIN vs. Mets
Rio Ruiz followed up a Swanson hustle double with a pinch-hit single to score the shortstop and lead to a walk-off victory. With the score tied and one out in the ninth, Swanson sent a single up the middle that Curtis Granderson took his sweet time fielding. Swanson pushed the issue and beat the throw to second to set up Ruiz, who took the only pitch Josh Edgin threw to left field to score Swanson. Granderson had homered in the third to put the Mets up, but Swanson (a common theme here) doubled in two runs to briefly put Atlanta on top. Jason Motte couldn't hold it from there, allowing a homer. Julio Teheran was improved as he continues to try to turn his season around. He gave up four hits, walked three, and struck out three over six innings before giving the bullpen the game with a 2-1 lead. Other than Motte, the pen didn't allow a hit even though Braves manager Brian Snitker used five relievers to record nine outs.

June 10: Game 1...6-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Can't blame the rookie as Sean Newcomb was superb. He went 6.1 innings, allowed four hits, walked two (one intentionally), and struck out seven. His biggest mistake came in the second when he tried to do a bit too much and committed an error that would help set the stage for the Mets to pull ahead on a sacrifice fly. It was still 1-0 in the eighth when Luke Jackson allowed another sacrifice fly. He then loaded the bases in the ninth before surrendering the game-ender - a Grand Slam. The Braves offense was non-existent as they managed a half-dozen hits, including two extra-base knocks by Brandon Phillips. It was Phillips' eighth-inning homer that kept the Braves from being shutout.

Game 2...8-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Once again, the Braves offense didn't show up and picked up just five hits, including a RBI single by Johan Camargo, who had two hits. Swanson had the only extra-base hit, a double that preceded Camargo's seventh-inning single. Matt Wisler was good - until he wasn't. After four very impressive innings, he gave up a three-run homer in the fifth and another run in the sixth. Eric O'Flaherty surrendered four more runs to turn the game into a laugher.

June 11: 2-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Jaime Garcia went seven innings, allowed just two runs, and struck out nine - and it wasn't enough. Completing a weekend where they were missing in action, the Braves offense picked up six or fewer hits for the third consecutive game. They had a shot to plate what would have been the tying run in the fifth inning when they loaded the bases on two singles and a walk, but Matt Adams hit an inning-ending double play. He was originally called safe at first before a replay challenge overturned the call on the field.

Trending Up:
Dansby Swanson (9-for-24, 3 2B, HR, 2 BB, 2 K)
Johan Camargo (4-for-13, 2B, 3B)
Ender Inciarte (8-for-27, 2B, 5 BB, 2 K)
Mike Foltynewicz (7 ING, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K)
Ian Krol (3 G, 1.2 ING, 2 K)
Sean Newcomb (6.1 ING, 4 H, R, 2 BB,  K)
R.A. Dickey (7 ING, 3 H, R, ER, 8 K)
Jaime Garcia (14.2 ING, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 13 K)

Trending South:
Kurt Suzuki (0-for-12, K)
Matt Adams (6-for-29, HR, 4 BB, 7 K)
Bartolo Colon (3.2 ING, 8 R, 2 BB, 4 K)
Eric O'Flaherty (3 G, 3.2 ING, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, BB, 4 K)

This Week: 3-5
Season: 27-35, tied for 3rd in the NL East, 11 GB (lost a spot and a .5 game)

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves leave Atlanta for a quick trip to D.C. to face the division-leading Nationals. Monday and Tuesday are night games while Wednesday will be a 4:05 EDT start. After an off day, Atlanta returns home to welcome the Marlins into town. After a night game on Friday, Saturday's effort will be a 4:10 EDT start and will be Superhero Night at the ballpark. Sunday's game is another Alumni Sunday with a pair of former second basemen as Marcus Giles and Mark Lemke will be on hand. Former pinch-hitting extraordinaire Dwight Smith will also be at the game along with Jay Howell, who spent one season with the Braves back in 1993.

Three Last Things

1) Sean Newcomb Deserves to Stay for Now
I've been on the Sean Newcomb Bandwagon since about midseason last year. I was like many fans and it took me some time to warm up to the deal that sent fan favorite Andrelton Simmons packing. But once I saw Newcomb start to make some mechanical adjustments last season, I grew more and more excited about his potential. I ranked him second on my preseason Top 50 and went into this season ready to watch him force his way into the majors. I was a little shocked to see it happen so quickly.

Newcomb's going to have to throw his secondary pitches more frequently and for strikes - 70 of his 96 pitches Saturday were four-seam fastballs - but what we saw against the Mets was a kid unaffected by the major league bright lights. He threw his pitches with confidence and even control, hitting the strikezone on 53% of his pitches - over 5% over the major league average this year. His fastball ranged between 91.1 mph and 96.9 mph and he was nearly hitting 96 mph in the sixth inning. His curve was off-the-charts ridiculous and froze hitters left-and-right. The ones that did swing at it often missed.

Like I said, he's going to have to throw his slider and change more often in future outings, but as far as debuts go, Newcomb excelled. He gave us a glimpse into the pitcher he can be. What's he got in his left arm for an encore?

2) Markakis: A Platoon Option?
Before coming to the Atlanta Braves, Nick Markakis definitely hit righties with more force than he hit lefties. While his batting average showed little platoon advantage, he walked nearly 3% more and sported an ISO that was 51 points higher. That gave us a difference in wOBA of .355 vs. .329. But that's not so bad. A general rule of thumb tells us that .329 is a bit between average and above-average.

But...and I bet you can guess where this is going...things have been a bit different since coming to Atlanta. Now, to be fair, his marks are down across the board compared to his Orioles days. To be equally as fair, his Orioles days includes a time when wOBA was much higher around the league so it's difficult to say that his decline with Atlanta has been significant. All of that out of the way, Markakis's wOBA as a Brave against righthanders is .340. That's an above-average mark and nothing to sneeze at. But his mark against lefthanders? .279. That's straight up awful and a detriment to the team.

I can't blame the Braves for playing him so frequently against lefthanders. They've rarely had better options. But it's time to accept that Markakis is now just a platoon hitter and if he's a Brave in 2018, he'll need a platoon partner - perhaps Dustin Peterson or the guy I'm going to talk about next.

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3) Acuna and Andruw
Ronald Acuna has done some pretty ridiculous things that 19-year-olds simply do not do. He played just 40 games at Low-A ball last year, but still received an extended stay with the major league club this spring and arrived in Florida for High-A ball with massive expectations. Those inflated expectations were already heightened after an absurd run in Australia during winter ball and a lot of eyes were on him as he began 2017 as one of the youngest players in High-A.

He didn't stay there long. Twenty-eight games. Sixty-eight total games at both levels of A-ball. On May 9, he was promoted to Mississippi. Less than a month later, he had already been named Southern League Player of the Month as he blitzed the league. Naturally, it's difficult NOT to compare him to another teenage outfielder who, back in 1996, jumped from High-A all the way to the majors with stops in Double-A and Triple-A along the way. Now, Acuna hasn't flashed the other-worldly power Andruw Jones did back then, but he's following a similar trajectory. Whether that gets him to the majors in 2017 remains to be seen.

But I want to concentrate on 2018 and what happened with Andruw Jones in 1997. We all remember how Andruw made a name for himself in the '96 World Series, but do you remember how the Braves treated the 20-year-old the following season? He played in all but nine ballgames, yet started just 91 games. He played a few innings in left, but cycled mostly between right field and center field. Kenny Lofton's lengthy DL stint helped open up at-bats for Andruw and Michael Tucker's need for a right-handed caddy to neutralized lefties also helped.

Why not do the same thing with Ronald Acuna? The Braves would enter 2018 with a returning outfield, though Nick Markakis has just one year left on his contract and Matt Kemp's deal runs through 2019. Both players have been pretty durable over the last several years, but each will be a year older in 2018. But the bigger advantage to bringing Acuna in for a year as the fourth outfielder is that he can fill a number of roles. As I stated in the second "Last Thing," Markakis has not shown the ability as a Brave to consistently hit left-handed pitching. Acuna could help there. He's also a capable defender in center field, something the Braves lack behind Ender Inciarte. Further, his defense could come in handy in late innings as a defensive replacement for Kemp without sacrificing too much offense. Finally, Acuna gives the Braves a solid replacement at any outfield spot during games in AL ballparks.

The belief is that Acuna won't be in the majors in 2018 if he's not starting and that won't happen without a trade. That's probably accurate, but giving Andruw a year as the fourth outfielder didn't hurt his development. Why not let Acuna follow the same course?