Some Waves are Bigger than Others

There are some in Braves country that are getting annoyed with the rebuild, and I get it (but don't agree with the mindset). The Braves traded some of their biggest names in Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, and Andrelton Simmons, and thus far have not seen the fruits of that labor at the Major League level. Since the rebuild commenced, the MLB team has looked pretty lackluster, and even the pitching talent that has surfaced has likely not been what is expected...or at least advertised. 

However, if you look outside the Braves front office fluffing of a few of the early pitching prospects, you get an unbiased look at what was expected of some of these guys, and while the "ceiling" has not been met, the expectation was MUCH, MUCH less than what our fans or front office claimed.

But fret not Braves fans. On a daily basis, I get to set my eyes upon the wonders of the Gulf of Mexico and I can assure you that some waves are bigger than others. If you're familiar with the color-coded flags that frequent the panhandle of Florida that determine wave conditions, you'll be familiar with the green, yellow, red, and double red flags. Here are their descriptions:

• GREEN FLAG- Calm Condition
• YELLOW FLAG- Moderate Surf/Currents
• RED FLAG- High Hazard
• DOUBLE RED FLAG- Beach Closed to the Public

These flags represent the Braves rebuild, especially that of the pitching variety. We are in the midst of this thing, but it's about to get really rocky for other MLB teams.

LET'S GO GREEN!!!!

Two years ago the first wave of the rebuild showed up and, no doubt, it was of the green flag variety. It wasn't a threat to the other MLB clubs. But the problem was in how it was presented to the masses. Let's break down a few guys: 

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

1. Matt Wisler- Every outlet that projected this guy saw him as a guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, but prior to his promotion he was being pushed as a guy to build on by the Braves brass. This was wish-casting and fast-forward to 2017, Wisler's being converted to relief at AAA after failing to keep his ERA below 4 since 2013.

2. Mike Foltynewicz- Immediately, when Mike was traded for, Braves started discussing front-line rotation stuff.  Unlike Wisler, this wasn't much of a stretch, but many prospect gurus agreed that the floor of "back-end relief" was more likely. Fast forward 3 years, and there are flashes but it mostly looks like he'll be a mid-rotation guy for his career...and that's a win for the Braves.

3. Aaron Blair- "Mid-rotation workhorse" ceiling that turned into a big dumpster fire at the MLB level. And this tidbit: He miraculously lost 3 MPH on his fastball when he donned a Braves uni. He's now sporting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and a mid-4s ERA at AAA.

4. Tyrell Jenkins- "Back-end rotation" ceiling now out of a job after being released by the Padres in July. Many, including myself, got caught up in his dynamic personality and decent ERA despite having poor peripherals that showed their true colors against the best baseball hitters in the game.

So, the GREEN FLAG wave has passed and as of now, only 1 of the 4 have come close to prospect projections. Is this more a lesson in prospect projections? Patience? Expectations? Really, it's all of the above. It is pretty rare for baseball players to live up to the hype of their prospect status, but the expectations that were thrown on this first wave to bear fruit were unfair to the players and the fans, not to mention the pressure the front office put on them with unreachable ceilings. But baseball is hard, and the guys above still have plenty of time to grow into their projections.

They call me MELLOW YELLOW

The Braves are in the midst of their YELLOW FLAG wave. These are guys with higher ceilings but have not put it all together in the MLB or MilB.

1.Sean Newcomb- The poster child for the YELLOW FLAG as Sean has a ceiling that is likely as high as anyone in the entire system, but is still plagued by control issues that were still present at Gwinnett. It's not a bad strategy for him to try to work through control issues in the midst of a punt year, but it'll be interesting to see what happens next year when the Braves are supposedly going to try to compete for the division and likely won't have the patience to run a pitcher out every 5th day plagued with the same issues that have cursed his baseball career. 

Rick Briggs via Flickr (CC by SA 2.0)

2. Lucas Sims- Once considered the Braves best-pitching prospect, Sims is now overshadowed by 2 handfuls of pitchers throughout the system.  Like Newcomb, Sims has been plagued by the ol' 4-baller, but that's taken care of itself over the last 2 years, but at what cost?  What made Sims valuable at a younger age was a fastball that had lots of movement and could hit 96.  Now his fastball sits in the low-90s. At Gwinnett this year, it didn't effect his strikeout rate as he was punching out over 10 per 9. However, in the MLB it's down to 4.7, albeit in a very small sample. The thing about Sims is if you look at projecting the Braves over the next 4-5 years, he doesn't seem to have the sticking power to stay in the rotation. His ceiling is much lower now than what it was after his age 19-season, and current projections have him as a back end guy/high-leverage reliever. It's my opinion that Sims received his 2017 chance due to his 40-man roster placement, not his performance, which was good but not really call-up worthy. As part of the yellow wave, I think Sims' best chance to stay in a rotation would be in a rotation that doesn't have a tomahawk across the chest. 

3. Max Fried- Fried is a poster child for small samples, both good and bad. His overall body of work has looked very pedestrian, but he flashes brilliance on a regular basis. Like Sims, Fried is likely on the MLB roster due to his position on the 40-man roster, but also the Braves are likely trying to keep his innings down as they've been extra cautious with guys coming off of Tommy John surgery. All of Fried's pitches are still present and his hook looks as filthy as ever, but something has held him back from tapping consistently into greatness. My guess is simply location as there's nothing else that can be pinpointed to mediocrity. He's one to keep an eye on as his ceiling is that of a 3-4 starter, but health could take him down as low as middle relief.

Red Flag?  SKIP THAT! DOUBLE RED FLAG IN FULL-EFFECT in 2018!!!

2018, the bulk of high-end pitching prospects will be at full-bloom at some point in time during the year, and it could be a wonder to behold!  Our next group all have front-line potential (number 1-2 starters) and this isn't organizational fluff but real prospect gurus with real projections.

1. Luiz Gohara- 20 years of age and flying through the minors after being mercifully removed from the Mariners' organization, Gohara might have the highest ceiling of all the pitching prospects with a serious left-handed power arm that's capable of striking out the fiercest of opponents. His issues stem from problems outside the diamond of which I'm not willing to delve into, but if he can keep those at bay, look out MLB.

2. Mike Soroka- Comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is setting them up for failure, so I'm not going to do that, but Soroka's pinpoint control is reminiscent of Maddux's reputation. Also only 20, Soroka is on pace to see time in the MLB as early as April of 2018, and I cannot possibly imagine a scenario where he's not in the bigs by 2018's end. Works low in the zone and uses every scrap of the plate, and if Tyler Flowers has anything to do with it, he'll use bits right outside the plate as well. With 3 plus pitches in his arsenal, this dude's the real deal. While he might not have the front-line arsenal of Gohara, his control could put him in the conversation.

3. Kolby Allard- At 19, the Braves might be pumping the brakes on this young stud as he's run into his first professional stretch where he hasn't dominated. Like Soroka, Allard has 3 plus-pitches and can run a FB up to 97, but normally ranges from 91-94. The fastball has lots of movement and his curve has different levels of break depending on the velocity. He's in AA and I think he stays there the rest of this year and maybe part of 2018. From there, it's anyone's guess, but I think his MLB debut happens sometime in 2019.

4. Touki Toussaint- If you were like me (don't be like me) you rated Touki lower on the prospect chart due to an inflated ERA that's been present his entire MiLB career. Like I said, don't be me and listen to others when they say Touki was, and still is, raw, but he is really coming around these last 4-5 starts. Like Gohara, if everything goes right, oh boy! Hold on to your seat because he's going to rocket. For now, his 95 MPH fastball and ridiculous curveball will make its home in Pearl, MS where he'll make foes look like fools. My bet is he'd be on the Allard track.

5. Kyle Wright- Could the Braves push Wright to MLB next year? You bet your butt they could...but I wouldn't expect it. Like Dansby, Wright is a polished pitcher that's got the frame and arsenal to be great. If the Braves need a push from a pitcher late in 2018, Wright could be that guy. However, 2019 seems more realistic and that's only 1.5 years in the Minors, a little more than Dansby.

Calm after the Storm? HECK NO!!! RED FLAG COMING IN!!!!

This group could very well become a named storm, let's call it Hurricane Arm Overload, and that would put them into DOUBLE RED FLAG status if they continue to develop, but for now, let's just appreciate them for kicking butt in the system. Most of these guys are early in their development and while most players they're facing off against are older, they're still in Low-A or below (or injured) and I've learned valuable lessons about projecting guys as "stars" when they're still in the lower minors (or injured). Watch closely to this group's development when they get to Double-A and beyond. I most definitely have high hopes.

1. Ian Anderson- Only 19 years old, Braves 1st round pick from 2016 is sitting 'em down at Low-A and has a body to grow into. Can already run it up to 97, and has the projections to be a #2-3 guy.

2. Joey Wentz- Also only 19, and has been a personal favorite of mine since the draft (and I have articles to prove it!), I think he's going to be really special. Putting up best numbers in the system at Low-A with a mid-90s peak fastball, and a change up and curve that's reportedly getting better every outing. The athleticism is the game-changer here and Wentz was a serious 2-way star coming out of high school and that should really pay dividends on the mound. Early projections show his ceiling as a mid-rotation pitcher.

3. Bryse Wilson- The surprise of the system thus far, and forgive me if I repeat things, but Bryse is also 19 years of age. Only surpassed by Wentz, Bryse is sporting a 2.36 ERA with a great K-rate, low-BB rate, and a knack for controlling the zone. The knock on him when drafted was that scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen, but man oh man he's proving he can play up. Working off of his fastball that sits the mid-90s, Bryse has a curve/slurve that's very effective and a change-up that is developing with every outing. Early projections show him as a mid-to-back end rotation pitcher.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

4. Kyle Muller- Pitching at Danville, Muller seems to be a bit behind in development from the 3 above, but it'd only take 2-3 dominant performances for him to be right in the mix. Muller most definitely has one of the more suitable frames for longevity as he's coming in at 6'6 225. Fastball sits at 92-93 but many reports I saw right after the draft had it pushing 95. I think we will see added velo to his fastball before it's said and done and he's likely toned it down to work on command which is very common for pitchers in the Braves system. Like Wentz, Muller is known for his athleticism and that should help his cause on the mound. A 3 pitch arsenal that's being fine tuned and has a 4th pitch that he's playing around with for now, Muller has the makeup to become an overnight surprise. Was in extended ST for a while nursing an ailment so I wouldn't doubt if he's up in Low-A by the end of the season when mass promotions will once again pour over the southeast like a summer thunderstorm.

5. Patrick Weigel- There's no doubt that Weigel would be in the Double Red Flag group above had it not been for his season-ending Tommy-John surgery at June's end. Like Muller, Weigel has a frame for eating innings if his arm can agree with his body post-surgery. Weigel works off of his fastball which sits 95ish and moves up to 100 on occasions. Weigel was promoted to AAA after 7 dominant starts in AA and ran into some hiccups. However, it was reported that his velo took a nosedive in the last 2-3 starts before being pulled on June 18th after only 3.1 innings.  Due to the Braves extreme caution on Tommy John victims, Weigel likely won't see action again until 2019 or at earliest Winter Ball in 2018 which, in turns, begs the question, "Does Weigel remain a starter?" The short answer for me is yes, but I don't think that'll be his role in MLB. If he can stay healthy, I think Weigel becomes a back-end bullpen threat where he's asked to come in and let it fly. Focusing on 2 dominant pitches in his fastball and curveball and keeping the 3rd (changeup) in his back pocket to keep hitters honest, Weigel could be a serious force for years.

WELL, that's all folks!  Don't fret when looking at the current fruits of the Braves pitching prospects that have peaked into the bigs this year. Dominance is coming and we are going to have wave after wave after wave for years to come.

Go BRAVES!!!

The Walk-Off Walk Midseason Top 50

Welcome to the Walk-Off Walk Midseason Top 50. For the first time in this blog's history, the rankings won't just be my thoughts on the matter, but the product of three different voices chiming in. In addition to me, Ryan Cothran has submitted his version and the new addition to the blog, Stephen Tolbert, has gotten in on the act as well.

Below is the list. Shortly before I posted this, I also posted a Walk-Off Talk with all three of us throwing out our thoughts on a variety of things such as the top pick, certain surprises in the rankings, and a few players who should climb up the rankings very soon. When you're done digesting our overall list, scroll down or click here to check it out.

There are a couple of criteria that must be met to be on this list. One, the prospect has to be 25-and-under. Second, the prospect still must retain rookie eligibility. Dansby Swanson exhausted his eligibility this season - meaning, he cannot be a rookie again. Speaking of Swanson, he's one of 13 players to not make this list after being part of my Top 50 during the preseason. Swanson, who was #1, was joined by Luke Jackson (#24) as players who graduated off the list. Juan Yepez(#27) was traded while Steve Janas (#41) was released. The remaining nine players simply fell off, led by Michael Mader at #28.

Finally, when there was a tie among prospects average ranking, I lifted Andy Harris's tie-breaking rule and went with the top individual ranking from any three contributors. This happened four times during the Top 50.

With that in mind, here is the list. Included is the player's previous rank and each of his three placements in the WOW contributors' lists. Again, remember to read our accompanying piece.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
1.	Ronald Acuna	9	2	2	1
2.	Ozzie Albies	3	3	1	2
3.	Kyle Wright	UR	1	3	3
4.	Kevin Maitan	5	7	4	4
5.	Kolby Allard	5	4	7	5
6.	Mike Soroka	6	6	5	6
7.	Sean Newcomb	2	4	8	7
8.	Luiz Gohara	7	8	6	10
9.	Ian Anderson	10	10	9	8
10.	Joey Wentz	14	9	10	17

A lot of agreement overall in regards to the top ten prospects in the system as only Wentz's ranking by Tolbert had him outside the Top 10. Allard and Soroka, drafted with consecutive Braves' choice in 2015 and headlining the Mississippi rotation as 19 year-olds, both had an average rank of 5.67. All three writers were in agreement over the Top 3 prospects, but each had a slightly different take.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
11.	Alex Jackson	21	16	12	9
12.	Travis Demeritte	13	13	14	12
13.	Austin Riley	12	12	15	13
14.	Touki Toussaint	8	11	22	11
15.	Patrick Weigel	17	14	11	23
16.	Kyle Muller	16	20	16	15
17.	Bryse Wilson	46	22	13	18
18.	Lucas Sims	18	17	18	20
19.	Cristian Pache	26	18	24	14
20.	Dustin Peterson	15	15	19	24

After a lot of the same players showed up in each contributor's Top 10, half of the next ten included players a member of WOW ranked outside the Top 20. Poe learned from his previous mistake and pushed Bryse Wilson up the rankings 24 spots, but still ranked him lower than anybody else and five spots below his WOW rank. Cristian Pache had a much smaller climb but jumped seven spots to #19th. Dustin Peterson became the second member of the rankings to win a tie-breaker after tying with an average of 19.33 but winning based on Poe's 14th placement.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
21.	Max Fried	11	19	17	22
22.	Drew Waters	UR	25	25	16
23.	Johan Camargo	UR	27	21	21
24.	A.J. Minter	19	24	20	26
25.	Rio Ruiz	20	23	29	19
26.	Brett Cumberland	25	21	23	28
27.	Derian Cruz	23	31	26	25
28.	Anfernee Seymour	47	29	30	35
29.	Akeel Morris	30	33	32	31
30.	Tyler Pike	UR	26	28	43

As the rankings increase, we start to see much more diversity in thought. Tyler Pike, one of three previously unranked players among this group of ten, makes the Top 30 despite being ranked #43 in Tolbert's ranking. In addition, a pair of players in Anfernee Seymour and Akeel Morris rank higher in the composite rankings than any of their rankings in each of the contributor's three lists. Both Seymour and Pike are among the four biggest climbers with the aforementioned Bryse Wilson joining them. However, nobody jumped higher than Johan Camargo, who goes from unranked to #23.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
31.	Ricardo Sanchez	33	30	38	30
32.	Yunior Severino	44	36	33	33
33.	Abraham Gutierrez	43	39	37	27
34.	Randy Ventura	UR	43	27	34
35.	Drew Harrington	UR	28	49	32
36.	Lucas Herbert	32	42	31	36
37.	Freddy Tarnok	UR	UR	35	29
38.	Braxton Davidson	22	32	39	47
39.	Ray-Patrick Didder	31	35	34	UR
40.	Caleb Dirks	34	34	36	UR

For the first time, we begin to see guys appear who wasn't even on all three lists as Freddy Tarnok reaches #37 despite not being on Poe's list. Ricardo Sanchez is the last player whose combined rankings equal less than 100. Drew Harrington and Lucas Herbert tied with an average of 36.33, but Harrington's top individual ranking of #28 secures the #35th spot for him. Braxton Davidson dropped 16 spots, one of biggest declines in the rankings compared to preseason. Randy Ventura makes this list after being included in the preseason 5 Looking In accompanying article to the Top 50. He's the only one of that group to do so.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
41.	Isranel Wilson	51	47	40	37
42.	Jason Hursh	UR	37	46	42
43.	Kade Scivicque	45	44	42	39
44.	Drew Lugbauer	UR	UR	41	40
45.	Matt Withrow	29	38	UR	44
46.	Tyler Neslony	UR	45	43	48
47.	Jesse Biddle	35	40	48	49
48.	Devan Watts	UR	41	47	UR
49.	Juan Contreras	UR	50	UR	38
50.	William Contreras	39	46	44	UR

The final ten prospects had a great deal of variety. Five are new to the rankings after not making the preseason one. Jason Hursh returns to the Top 50 rankings after getting removed in the preseason. Drew Lugbauer becomes the fourth member of the 2017 draft class to join the Top 50. In addition, Hursh and Kade Scivicque came down to a tiebreaker. As did Devan Watts and Juan Contreras. One last note - Izzy Wilson was originally going to rank as the #49th top prospect in the preseason list, but a trade after the list began, which added Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara to the organization, prompted me to push the preseason list to a Top 52. No such need this year.

Players also receiving votes included Yefri Del Rosario, Leudys Baez, Luis Valenzuela, Wes Parsons, Burrows, Ryan Lawlor, Troy Bacon, and Yenci Pena.

Keep scrolling to read the authors' reasoning for how they arrived at their choices.

Walk-Off Talk 1.7: Talking About the Midseason Top 50 Prospects

To add context to this year's Midseason Top 50 Prospects, the Walk-Off Walk contributors sat down for an informal discussion about their picks, some of the surprises, and a few of the guys who could rocket up the charts by the end-of-the-year countdown. Tommy Poe, new contributor Stephen Tolbert, and Ryan Cothran are all part of today's Walk-Off Talk.

It might help to have this year's Top 50 open in another window to provide context. If you think we ranked one guy higher than the next, feel free to chime in with a comment.

One last note. All but one of the pictures in this article come via Jeff Morris. Remember to follow him on Twitter for continued superb pictures to attach faces to many of the prospects.

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Kyle Wright

Tommy Poe: Let’s get right into this and start with #1. Officially, Ronald Acuña took home the top spot in our rankings as he was the only player to rank first or second on all three lists. However, he only made #1 on Stephen’s. Ryan had Ozzie Albies as his top guy while I went with Kyle Wright. This trio of players easily pulled away from the field with an average ranking between 1.67 and 2.33. Fourth place averaged 5.00.

My first question is how did you arrive at your choice? And being the nice guy I am, I’ll answer first.

Let me start by saying that each of these incredibly talented players is majorly deserving of such an honor. The sky's the limit for Acuña and that might be selling the guy short. Ozzie Albies is a trade away from taking over second base, a position he may hold for the next decade. Having three legitimate players for an organization’s best prospect is a testament to both how deep this organization is and how off-the-charts talented this trio is. To hype these guys up just a little bit more - all have a legitimate shot to be in the majors by the end of 2018.

But, and forgive me for saying so, I’m the only one who made the Wright choice. (/ducks)

I won’t disagree with you guys that either Acuña or Albies has a higher ceiling than Wright. What I will say is that Wright has the highest floor of any draft choice the Braves have selected since Bob Horner. Now, the Braves have absolutely no reason to rush him to the majors like they once did with Horner, but in my mind, we don’t just reward projection, but the floor a prospect has and especially when that floor is quite elevated. Acuña and Albies should be - and I think will be - excellent players in the major leagues, but they cannot match the likelihood of reaching their potential like Wright.

The man comes into professional baseball with three plus pitches and a strong possibility of taking his weakest pitch, a pretty decent changeup, and transferring it into a plus pitch as well. His simple-and-easy mechanics are repeatable and don’t put undue stress on him. Mark my words, gentlemen - the Braves will look back at the 2017 draft and thank their lucky stars four other teams passed on Wright.

Both of you ranked him third on your lists. Why did your guy - either Albies or Acuña - get your pick as the number one prospect in the system?

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Ronald Acuna

Stephen Tolbert: Hey guys! Glad to be a part of the team.

Let’s start with this; I love Kyle Wright. Getting him at 5 in the draft was thievery. For my money, he’s the best pitching prospect in the system. And in this system, that’s quite an accomplishment. But Wright has two things working against him being at the top.

One, he hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro ball yet and until I at least see some work against other pro’s, I can’t crown him #1. Two, he isn’t Ronald Acuña.

When I think about the number one overall prospect, I think “who can be the best player in the game?” “Who has that type of potential?”  And among the 3 obvious choices, Acuña was the only one who fit that profile. A 19-year-old, legitimate 5-tool player already destroying Double-A is as rare as it is impressive and when you have that guy in your system, he’s #1. Now, he's headed to Triple-A to unseat Albies as the youngest player in the International League.

And if you watched the Futures Game, you saw it all on display. The show he put on in BP had national writers tweeting about it, and then, once the game started, you saw the incredible defensive talent he’s going to be. Coming up as a CF with plus speed, he clearly has the skills to play all 3 OF positions and he showed off his 70-grade arm a few times during the game.

Maybe the most impressive part of the night, though, was the multiple 10+ pitch AB’s he put up against some of the nastiest pitchers in MILB. Taking 98-mph fastballs just off the plate. Spitting on hard-breaking off-speed pitches in 2-strike counts. Basically, he was doing things a 19-year-old shouldn’t do against pitchers that advanced.

Acuña is dynamic, powerful, advanced, and the most gifted overall player to come through this system since Andruw. Truly a rare talent. In my opinion, he’s clearly the #1 prospect in the Braves’ system and eventually, in all of baseball.

But I’m open minded--so Ryan, let’s hear why Ozzie Albies is really the top man in this incredible system.

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Ozzie Albies | Grant McAuley - Follow on Twitter - used with permission

Ryan Cothran: Hey you 2 scoundrels! I'm on Whidbey Island off the coast of Washington and maybe it’s just the island vibes soaking in, but man I love the heck out of Ozzie Albies. He's been my guy for quite a while (not in a Robert Baker sense) and I'm going to show him some love, but first off, it's slanderous for us to talk number 1 Braves prospect and not discuss Kevin Maitan. He’s already wreaking havoc in the GCL and maybe we look at this discussion in a year and think how big of buffoons we were for not including him, and that brings me to my next point and Stephen has already made it: Whether it's the Wright or Wrong call, I cannot give the number 1 title to a guy that hasn't thrown a professional pitch, or in Maitan’s case, limited exposure.  Sorry Kyle, your poise, promise, 3-plus pitches and potential power arm will have to settle for 3 on my rankings.

From there, it was a wash between Acuña and Albies, but what has been occurring in the past month for 20-year old Albies pushed my ranking: he's destroying the ball. Doubles, triples, home runs, he's hitting them and he's doing it from both sides of the plate thanks to Chipper! From the looks of him, I'd guess he's added 20 pounds of muscle in the last year, has put more emphasis on successful steals rather than just running because he's fast, and from what I've read and saw, he's developed some more arm strength. He's sharpened his game all around at the minors highest level and he still can't buy a beer in Georgia. I'm overly excited about what the Braves lineup could feature in 2018 with Albies in it and am very anxious for Brandon Phillips to move on so we can see Ozzie in the show I think he's a seasonal 4 WAR player that could be an all-star 4-5 times in his career.

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Tommy Poe: All valid arguments. I think we all agree that all three guys are going to help shape the future of the Atlanta Braves over the near future. The Top 5 was completed by the aforementioned Maitan at #4 and Kolby Allard at the fifth spot. Allard actually matched his fellow 2015 Draft Class member Mike Soroka for the fifth-best average, but gets the fifth spot due to a tiebreaker which I stole from Outfield Fly Rule’s Andy Harris. In the event of a tie, the player with the highest individual ranking gets the spot.

#7 was an interesting pick. Both Ryan and Stephen had Sean Newcomb around that spot in their rankings, but I went against the grain and stuck with my preseason belief that Sean Newcomb was underrated and put him in the fourth spot.

On Newcomb, since it was my pick, this is probably building on where I had him ranked preseason. At number two. As in, the top non-Dansby Swanson prospect in this system. Nobody agreed with that ranking at the time, but I felt the improvement he made over the second half of 2016 could not only be sustained, but built upon. I was little disappointed with some walk totals with Gwinnett as I felt he was improving in that regard, but I still hold firm in my belief that Newcomb's combination of power, stuff, and pitchability was being underranked by other sources. As such, I rank him as the second-best pitcher in my rankings - a distinction that only changed because of Wright.

His time in the majors has been mostly solid, though he ran into the buzzsaw known as the Astros and was charged with four runs against the Nationals over his last two starts. Nevertheless, he's reached the seven-strikeout plateau in half of his six starts and walked two or less in four of those games. That's something that the Braves can possibly build upon moving forward.

I do understand the criticisms, but control is the thing I'll give a break to when it comes to pitchers. Give me a guy who has issues sometimes finding the plate, but has the weapons to be a #2 starter (possibly #1) if he can find the plate more consistently and I'll be a fan. But the great thing about this organization is whether you want to go with Newcomb, Allard, or Soroka as your second-best pitching prospect in the system - as the three of us did - I believe you can make justifiable arguments about all three.

On the subject of pitchers, Stephen, you had Joey Wentz #17 in your rankings. Ryan and I both had him near the tail end of our Top 10. You were the only one to rank both Touki Toussaint and Kyle Muller ahead of him. Any particular reasoning or just liked him less?

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Stephen Tolbert: Before I jump back in, I do want to make the point that this system is almost unfathomably deep. Guys like Joey Wentz being in the 10-20 range shows how difficult it can to rank all these guys and that often, a guy is where he is because I like a different guy more, not because I like that player less.

Drew Waters

This is what happened with Wentz on my list where he came in at #17. There were a couple players I felt had higher ceilings that I had to put in front of him. A couple of those guys being Drew Waters and Cristian Pache - both tooled out OF who are having early success at their respective levels.

In general, I prefer position players to pitchers because of the severe volatility pitching prospects experience. That means when I get to a group of prospects I feel all around the same level, I lean towards the bats.

Joey is a terrific 3-pitch guy who probably has a bit more pitchability than some of the other guys in the system. But ultimately I see more of a mid to back-end SP as his career path and there were some other guys I project higher.

But being in the top 20 of this system means you're a serious player and very likely have a major league career ahead of you. So Joey at 17 on my list means I still think very highly of him. What surprised me was Ryan's ranking of Touki at #22. That down on him, Ryan, or just high on others?

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Ryan Cothran: I agree that it's pretty easy to rank a top-10 in this organization and have a near consensus 10 guys, whether they're up or down a few spots. After that, it's tricky. One ranking that I had that will likely draw criticisms by many is Touki at 22. Honestly, I just don't get it. He has a curve that’s known as the best pitch in the Braves system, a mid-90s fastball, a working change, and his ERA is pushing 6. Sure, his K-rate is up, his BB-rate down, but he's now in his 4th year in professional ball and the ERA is still going the wrong way. How is this happening? Sure..blame the defense, blame the umps, or just state the obvious and say he's developing, but regardless of the reason, I just cannot look at him and continue to think Starting Pitcher. With that in mind, Geez Louise, he could be a dominant bullpen stud but that just doesn't warrant a near top-10 ranking in the best system in the bigs. For whatever the reasons that Touki and Ricardo Sanchez have to not put it all together, there's guys like Bryse Wilson and Patrick Weigel who clicked and are big jumpers in the org. Hopefully, we will see the same click happen for the aforementioned two.

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Tommy Poe: I definitely do hope we see them start to put it together more as well, Ryan. For now, I want to spend a little time going over our individual rankings and what stands out compared to the rest. At #16, I had Alex Jackson, his lowest ranking. I don't doubt the offense is for real because I was on board with the trade when it happened considering he showed improvement last season. I thought the Mariners were short-sighted in the move. I do wonder if he'll stay behind the plate, though. From people I've talked to (non-scouts, I grant you), they aren't so sure and that's what prompted me to rank him a bit lower. If he's forced back to the outfield, he's still a good prospect - just not as hot. Still, to rank #16th in this system is a pretty nice accomplishment - especially when left for dead by the M's.

I also had Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson a bit lower than you guys. Similar to why Stephen went with others over Wentz, I felt Muller and Wilson's ceilings are not as high as guys I put ahead of them. Either that rationale or, as was the case with Patrick Weigel and Lucas Sims, I valued their closeness to the majors over Muller and Wilson. I still love both pitchers, though, and look forward to being wrong.

Derian Cruz

I had the lowest rank of Derian Cruz, who I plugged in at #31. I think he's going to hit and flash very good speed, but I am really worried about his defense. From watching him a few times with Danville, he doesn't have soft hands and is frequently forced to rush a throw as a result. My placement is similar to Jackson's in that if he doesn't stay at his current position, his value declines. Right now, I'm looking for reasons to believe he'll stay at shortstop and I have too much concern he'll get shifted to the outfield.

Speaking of speedy guys - this time who already play in the outfield - Randy Ventura had one of the most diverse rankings in the whole thing. I had him #43, Stephen ranked him #34, and Ryan squeezed him into the Top 30 with a #27 placement. And here I was concerned I was ranking him too highly because he has slowed down somewhat as the season has progressed.

I didn't include recent draftees like Freddy Tarnok and Drew Lugbauer on my list. Both were guys who would have showed up if we went beyond Top 50's and because both landed on your lists, each gets a place in the WOW Midseason Top 50. I do like both, but I haven't seen enough of Tarnok to give him a Top 50 spot and Lugbauer might struggle to have a position moving forward. That said, in most systems in the majors, they would be consensus Top 50 prospects - if not Top 30.

I'm glad Jason Hursh made all of our lists, by the way. He's a guy who has shown a lot of improvement over the last year. I'm still not sure he'll be a high-leverage reliever, but there's something here now that I felt was gone when I left him off my preseason Top 50. Really want to see how his career develops moving forward.

Stephen, what are some of your observations about your Top 50 compared to Ryan's and my versions?

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Stephen Tolbert: First, just to respond to one thing you mentioned, I put  A. Jackson as high as I did because I love the bat and the arm. I haven't heard anyone reputable express any optimism that he can stay at catcher but his profile still fits a corner OF spot and man can he hit.

Ok on to mine. Looking at all 3 lists, the first thing that jumps out is Drew Waters. You and Ryan both had Drew 25 while I had him 15. If I'm being 100 percent honest, I almost had him in my top 10. Switch-hitting OF with speed, projectable power and, early on, what seems like a good feel for hitting. Yeah, I'm all aboard. My hot take/bold prediction for next year is once Acuña and Albies graduate, Maitan and Waters will be the 2 best hitting prospects in the system.

Another notable difference I see is you and Ryan both had Ray-Patrick Didder in the mid 30s while he didn't make my top 50. Yeah, I just don't see it with Didder. It's 20 power with a 27% strikeout rate in A ball. He gets by on some fluky HBP numbers that won't hold when he faces pitchers with better control at upper levels. Outside of that, I see an org OF who can run but really not do much else. In a lesser system, he may crack the top 50 for me, but certainly not the best system in baseball.

Alright, Ryan, who were the players you saw differently than Tommy and me?

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Ryan Cothran: Admittedly, I've seen very little of Waters, but have liked what I've seen. For me, it's the unknown that's near impossible to rank but I appreciate the boldness and sure hope your ranking turns to be the more accurate.

As far as my guys, I just cannot get enough of Bryse Wilson. Dude’s fastball stayed 93-96 throughout a complete game shutout and his positive demeanor has been discussed in numerous outlets both inside Braves fam and out. His arsenal is developing, he's striking out a lot of people while walking guys seldom, and he's only 19 years old. While he might have a bit more to learn in comparison to Allard and Soroka, he's right on their heels and I'd expect a promotion before year's end.

Another guy that I likely have an unhealthy fondness of is Randy Ventura. While he's cooled off recently, he can flat out hit. Combine that with above average speed, superior baseball instincts, and a good glove and he's likely a good 4th outfielder. However, that's not how I see him. I think there's some power there and room for growth in that body. I'd keep an eye on him these next few here's to see if 16-20 of those singles become doubles and  6-7 of those doubles and triples become homeruns. If that happens, there could be some serious under the radar hype here.

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Tommy Poe: Finally, I want to go over the five guys you feel might be climbing up the rankings by the end of this season. These can be guys who made your Top 50 or weren't on the list at all. You can also say how you feel they will rise up the WOW list as others come around on your way of thinking.

Bryse Wilson, #17 - I do believe I ranked him lower than you guys because he was ranked really low in my preseason Top 50. He jumped about 20 spots but probably didn't jump enough spots. He'll be an easy Top 20 guy for me by the end of the season and might be in the Top 15.

Drew Waters, #22 - Stephen's aggressive #15th rank might prove to be matched by my own by the end of the year. That's not only a product of my stealing from Stephen :), but the guy's talent is ridiculously high. I'm seeing some people put him as the third-best position prospect in the system behind Acuna and Albies. I'm not there - yet - but he's definitely climbing.

Abraham Gutierrez

Abraham Gutierrez, #34 - I had him ranked the lowest at #39th, but I do believe he'll be in the Top 30 by the end of the season. He seems like the catching prospect with the best chance to not only be a plus at the plate but also behind it.

Drew Lugbauer, #45 - Though I do have concerns about him finding a position, I'm also massively intrigued by the idea of a power-hitting righty-mashing utility player who can cycle from catcher-to-first-to-third. If he can also get some time in left here-and-there, I'm jumping on the hype train big time.

Jean Carlos Encarnacion, UR - First off, Encarnacion is why the Braves need another minor league team or two. I don't know if they truly believe he can't play shortstop anymore or can't find any playing time there for him while playing on a team with Livan Soto and Kevin Maitan. Either way, the current 1B/3B is off to an excellent start in the GCL with six extra-base knocks over his first 51 PA. He was a late signing in the 2015-16 international signing class and I think the Braves found yet another solid bat out of the DR who could rise in a hurry. He's got a big frame to grow in and one that might lead to a good deal of power.

What are some of the guys you think will climb the charts moving forward, Stephen?

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Stephen Tolbert: I like the Juan Carlos Encarnacion pick, Tommy. Here are my top 5 potential climbers:

OF Drew Waters, #22 - (see bold prediction above) Drew was #15 on my personal list but could easily be my top OF prospect in the system once Acuña graduates.

SP Max Fried, #21 - I think Fried has a much pure talent as any arm in the org but his results haven't shown it. If his second half this year matches his second half last year, he could be up in the top 10.

OF Dustin Peterson, #20 - Dustin would've easily made my top 15 coming into the year but the wrist injury in Spring Training has zapped him of his power which is a key part of his development. If he gets that back, he's probably closer to #10 than he is to #20.

C Lucas Herbert, #36 - Lucas has really progressed this year in all aspects of his game. The only reason I didn't have him higher is I just want to see more of it. If he continues at his current pace, he's a top 20 prospect.

OF Braxton Davidson, #38 - I still believe in Braxton. He hits the ball hard, he hits it in the air, and he knows how to take a walk. I love those three things in a prospect. He just needs to put it all together. If he does, the raw talent is there to be big time prospect.

What say you Ryan?

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Ryan Cothran: Man, I hope you're right on Max and D-Pete as they're two guys that are easy to like.

Izzy Wilson, #42 - Seriously talented youngster that could be the next big thing. Has had disciplinary issues in the past but if he can put his focus on baseball, Braves will have something.

Bryse Wilson, #17 - On the heels of all our other young pitchers but maybe not for long. Shelby Miller in the making?

Max Fried, #21 - Bad first half but has tools and talent to be a very good starting pitcher. Think we will see a rise in stock for the 2nd time.

Drew Waters, #22 - Could he be the Braves steal of the draft? Too early to tell, but if he keeps going at current pace, he'll be a serious mover.

Justin Smith, UR - Tommy and I both liked this pick in the draft and Matt Powers of Talking Chop did as well. A JUCO guy with the ability to do everything well. Look for him to adjust then explode.

Walk-Off Talk 1.2: Checking In With the Top 50 - Part 1

In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at rising and falling prospects using the Walk-Off Walk Top 50 preseason list as a guide (link takes you to posts about the Top 50). At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section. 

Wilson (left) with Kyle Mueller | Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

RyRy,

It’s hard not to be smug when talking about the farm system the Atlanta Braves have put together. From trades to acquire even more talent to the smart utilization of the draft to maximize both quality and quantity to a recommitment to the international market - and even holdovers from the Frank Wren era like Lucas Sims and Ozzie Albies - the Braves organization is full of not just depth at a number of positions, but talent that has impact potential. Today, I wanted to go over some of the guys that have increased their stock over the first two months of the season. At the same, we can’t ignore the players who are falling down the prospect rankings. To be fair, some of that is due to the first category - the guys pushing their stock up. But there are a few - yes a few -, that have struggled to this point.

I’m going to use my Top 50 as an outline here. Hey, since you’re a full-fledged member of Walk-Off Walk, I guess you are going to have help me with the midseason rankings. Just know that while I value your opinion, if it doesn’t agree with mine, it’s wrong.

Just kidding. Maybe.

Let’s get on with it. #46 Bryse Wilson is kind of the forgotten arm from last year’s class and not only because I keep forgetting to spell his name with an “s” rather than a “c”. A fourth-round pick, Wilson dominated in the Gulf Coast League, but remained firmly in the shadow of Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. Yet, it was Wilson, not Muller, that jumped from the GCL to the South Atlantic League to open 2017. He hasn’t been as good as Wentz and Anderson according to FIP, but he’s still been damn good. A lot of pre-draft analysis strongly hinted Wilson could be a bullpen guy, but the Braves wouldn't have picked a high school arm that high (#109) to be a bullpen arm. They thought they saw something in him that maybe others didn't. So far, they might be right.

He’s one of the guys I expect to climb up the midseason list considerably. While I have only done a little prep work for it so far, do you expect a Top 30 placement for Wilson?

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Tommy “Edgar Allan” Poe,

When looking at a list that has some of the best pitching prospects in the game, it’s easy to see Bryse Wilson and simply pass him over.  However, he’s making a believer out of me with a fastball that sits 93-95 MPH, can climb as high as 97, and has staying power throughout his starts. Did I mention he’s still two years away from being able to buy a beer legally in the states? Like many young ones, he’s self-admittedly needing to develop his offspeed stuff. He features both a slider and a changeup, but neither are a plus pitch yet. With so many starting pitchers seemingly in front of him on the depth chart, one could see Bryse being converted to an elite relief pitcher where he can feature his fastball that I’d bet could run up to triple-digits in due time. With 58.2 innings of really good baseball under his belt at Rome, accompanied by both a low-BB rate and a high-K rate, I’d say he’s most definitely a big mover up the list on a loaded system, and could be a quick mover after the 2017 season.

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Cothman,

I agree about Wilson completely. I feel almost ashamed that I under ranked him, but that gives him the opportunity to slide up these rankings considerably by midseason.

On the other hand, #36 Connor Lien is likely completely out of the Top 50. He, like Randy Ventura, was a guy I grew to love in 2015. Unlike Ventura, though, he’s only gotten worse. Back in ‘15, he slashed .285/.347/.415 with incredible defense. While it would have been difficult to predict stardom based on his numbers, there was enough value here to predict a 2-3 fWAR season once Lien was established in the majors.

But that hope is a pipe dream now. He wasn’t terrible during an injury-shortened 2016, but has fallen off the map this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 40%. Even Rob Deer and Mark Reynolds are telling him to make some contact. Things were so bad that he spent a week at extended spring training to try to clear his head. Unfortunately, it appears like Lien’s prospect status has completely eroded or am I wrong?

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Tommy,

I cannot argue here, but I can also brag on myself a bit: I never bit on Lien and I have Chris Johnson to thank for that.  The year of Lien’s breakout was 2 full years after the infamous .394 BABIP. Lien’s was .379 in 2015, and even with that, he didn’t break an .800 OPS. However, guys around Tomahawk Take were blowing up his defensive abilities and that combined with his speed made him a nice under the radar prospect. When Braves chose to leave him unprotected for the Rule-5 draft and he went unclaimed, it told me that no matter how great of a defensive Gandalf he could be, he’s just not going to be a big league commodity. As one can see this year, when his BABIP gets in the “league average” range, the offensive results are poor. You’re right in removing him from the list. Hopefully, for Lien he can turn it around...baseball is hard.

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Mr. Obvious,

Indeed, baseball is very hard. Sometimes, I admit I let my personal feelings overrule the logic side of me. I loved watching Lien in 2015. Still holding out hope he sells his soul for another BABIP-inflated season. It was kind of fun to watch the first time.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

Onto a happier subject, Cristian Pache turns 19 next November, yet he's handling the South Atlantic League like a guy a few years older and with more experience than 57 games at rookie level. When Pache and Derian Cruz signed back in 2015, it was Cruz that garnered more accolades, but early in their careers, it's Pache who looks like a real prospect.

He's still learning to utilize his speed, but he's got the wheels to do some big things. So far, he's stolen 15 bases and has been caught just four times. But what really intrigues me is the potential pop in his bat. He has a big leg kick before driving forward in the box with a bat that explodes through the zone. It hasn't produced much in terms of real homerun power to this point, but the smart money is that he'll start popping a few in the near future. I had him ranked #26th coming into the season and he might not break into the Top 20 just yet - which is not a slight against him, but a representation of the talent throughout the system. Regardless, I have been impressed with a guy who only has five plate appearances during his brief career against a pitcher younger than him. Oh, and hey, he has elite center fielder potential in the field. Not that the Braves don't already have one of those, but it's great to keep cranking them out.

Despite the big leg kick, he's only striking out about 19% of the time against older and more experienced pitchers. The improvement in his walk rate (5.5% to 8.3%) is also exciting is as I look for progression in rate stats as a tell-tale sign of a rising prospect. So, my question is this, Ryan...how much power do you project Pache developing? I think he can be, at worst, a .150 ISO guy if he progresses like we hope he can. Is that too much to expect?

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TomCat,

The body, the frame to grow into, the speed...it’s all there. But really, the numbers aren’t. In 465 plate appearances, not a single dinger.  What gives? I’ve got a theory, but let’s hold off a bit.

The positives, there’s much to like here as his speed, defensive efficiency, and ability to get on base is what’s driven his prospect rankings and like you stated, these skills are standing up* against competition older than him (it seems like we say this about every Braves prospect these days).

*Albeit, his .707 OPS leaves me wanting more and his .364 BABIP likely isn’t long-term sustainable

But the power? Many would think just by looking at his numbers that he must be a wiry kid, but that’s not the case. He’s 6’2, muscular, 185 pounds, and growing...so again, where’s the power? In the samples that I’ve seen (you can see it on YouTube, but I also subscribe to MILBTV so I’ve seen a15-20 more ABs than the norm) Pache seems to have a problem with weight distribution. So many times (to the point it seems intentional), he gets caught out on his front foot which all but crushes his ability to drive the ball. At this point, I feel it’s a habit he has to break that he probably developed early in his career to utilize his speed and get out of the box quick turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. If he can stay back on the ball and generate the needed power from his legs, look out! Adding power to his game is the last thing that’s holding this kid back from being a 5-tool athlete on the heels of Ronald Acuna, but it’ll take a lot of time in the cages to work out an old habit that’ll likely take a while to die hard.