Is Andrelton's Extension Coming Soon?

Suddenly, Atlanta is the home of contract extensions.  After committing over $200M to four players, Atlanta has avoided the year-to-year arbitration process with some of the core of their team and if you are to believe the many articles released recently, the Braves are not done.  After all, only two pitchers are signed past 2014.  The left side of the infield is currently not signed after 2014, either.  For some reason, the Braves have a panda that hasn't been extended, too.

Now, the majority of those players are team-controlled for the next couple of seasons.  In fact, only three players (Gavin Floyd, Ryan Doumit, and Gerald Laird) are entering their final year of their contract.  The Braves don't have to extend anyone else to retain them outside of those three.

That doesn't mean the Braves will not extend another member (or two) of their young team before the 2014 season kicks off.  One player in particular who seems likely to be targeted by the Braves is Andrelton Simmons.  The Platinum Award-winning shortstop is a part of the long-term future for the Braves and every pitcher in baseball would love to have him at short.  His 41 DRS last year is one of my favorite stats.  DRS stands for Defensive Runs Saved, or essentially quantifies the phrase "he's got RBI's in his glove."  Not only was it the highest DRS in baseball, the guy who finished in second place among shortstops has 12.  Perhaps I should emphasize that.  Simmons had 41 DRS and the second best shortstop had 12.  Since 2011, only Brendan Ryan has more than 41 DRS among shortstops and it took him three years.  Simmons has 60 and he played all of 2011 in Lynchburg.

That's just a way of saying that Simmons' defense is pretty awesome.

The only problem, as far as a contract extension goes, is that defense rarely pays.  Ryan, one of the better defenders at shortstop before the arrival of Simmons, made $6M in his three arbitration years.  But Ryan is a notable awful offensive player with a career .237/.299/.320 slash.

Adam Everett was a tremendous defender, but never made more than $2.8M in a single season and OPS'd .640 over an 880-game career that ended in 2011.

Former Brave Jack Wilson was renowned for his defense, though he also occasionally flashed a bat, especially during a 2004 season where he slashed .308/.335/.459.  He had another solid offensive season three years later when he OPS'd .791.  Between those two big seasons, he even inked a $20M extension that covered three years.  But outside of two seasons, he sucked with the bat.

Even late 90's sensation Rey Ordonez is a tough comparison because while he was a great defender, he never could hit.

So, coming to an agreement between the Braves and Simmons is going to be very tough.  Even though Simmons had a subpar offensive season last year, he still hit 17 homers.  He's young enough and was solid enough in the minors to believe he can perform at a much higher offensive level.

Simmons wants to be paid for one-of-a-kind defense, impressive power for a middle infielder, and the potential his bat will be even better.  The Braves want to pay for great defense, good power, and a bat that needs work.  It will be very difficult for a contract to come from that.  Simmons is likely going to be Super 2 next year so he will hit arbitration a year early.  I doubt that the Braves will get an extension for Simmons, but it could happen after the season when both sides have more results to base offers and counter-offers on.

Though...I didn't think Craig Kimbrel would get an extension so tomorrow, we might know about an extension for Simmons.

Alternate Universe: Braves Do Not Trade Yunel Escobar in 2010

(Hi.  I'm going to try this because I like the idea of how making one move ends up being quite significant.  I realize that it's impossible to take the numbers a player put up in one place and translate them to the next.  The league and park factors are ignored when you do that.  This isn't an exact study, but a simple exercise.  Hope you enjoy it and maybe I'll try this again soon.)

Figured I'd start a new series and this one was inspired by a lot of the comments directed to Yasiel Puig.  The 22 year-old, with a year of professional experience since his defection and even less time in the majors, has bothered both the Dodgers and opponents with his style of play.  Some believe he acts in a highly unprofessional manner with his playing style.  Mental lapses in judgement have occurred frequently on the field ranging from failing to hit the cut-off man to running into outs.  Let's be clear that most young studs who have a collection of skills that push them through the minors with explosive speed still have flaws in their games that haven't been hammered out.  After all, that's what the minors attempt to do and Puig didn't stay down there for very long (and with good reason).

The backlash toward him made me think of a former Brave in Yunel Escobar.  Back at the chopnation forums in their heyday, we used to refer to Escobar as Mr. Dynamic, a play on his description from one of the beat writers, probably David O'Brien.  Like Puig, Escobar was born in Cuba.  He defected through harsh conditions on a raft with over 30 others in 2004, reaching Florida and seeking asylum.  That allowed him to be included in the 2005 draft and the Braves took him in the 2nd round.

He rocketed through the minors and less than two years from the day he signed, Escobar made his debut on June 2nd of 2007.  While filling in for injuries, Escobar was used often by Bobby Cox at second, short, and third to keep his bat in the lineup.  He slashed his way to .326/.385/.451 and a sixth place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting.

It was a great turn around for Escobar, who clashed with his AA manager, former Brave Jeff Blauser, over his attitude.  He would consistently whistle at the opposing players (and his own teammates) while taking his customary spot at short.  While he wasn't quite as bad about it once he reached the majors, it was still present and was a product of his time in Cuba.  Tom Glavine was distracted by it so much one time that he called Chipper Jones over to ask who was whistling at him.  He showboated and didn't care who he aggravated, his own team included.  The Braves tried to drum that out of him by the time he reached the bigs.  Nevertheless, he had his moments.  But for the first two-and-a-half years of his career in the majors, Escobar got a bit of a free pass.  Sure, he got a talking to from time-to-time, both by his coaches and teammates.  There were the occasional benchings, some we know about.  But the Braves also enjoyed his energy and enthusiasm.  As Cox said, "You can see how much he loves to play."

2010: The Honeymoon Ends and Our Fictional Journey Begins ...In his first 371 games in the majors, Escobar slashed .301/.375/.426 while posting nearly 10 fWAR for the Braves.  However, with three-and-a-half months in the books during 2010, Escobar slumped badly with a .618 OPS.  His isolated power, which was extremely solid for a middle infielder, looked like it belonged to a pitcher.

The Braves were willing to deal with Escobar and all of the baggage when he produced.  Now that he wasn't, the Braves were done with him and traded him to the Blue Jays for a trio of players, including Escobar's replacement Alex Gonzalez.  A good defender who came with a miserable on-base percentage, Gonzalez was welcomed with open arms in Atlanta as he received a standing ovation when he arrived in the clubhouse.

However, what if Escobar hadn't struggled so much in 2010?  What if he simply was okay like he was after the trade.  He hit .275 with a .696 OPS with the Blue Jays the rest of the way.  Had he produced at that clip in the first half with the Braves, would they have traded him?  Probably not.

2011: The First Year of Arbitration and a Chance to Bounce Back...With the Blue Jays, Escobar hit .290/.369/.413 during 2011.  However, in Atlanta, Gonzalez struggled badly that year, OPSing .642 with more than 100 strikeouts than walks...which is absurd when you think about it.  The Braves would notably collapse in 2011, but one can argue that Gonzalez did everything he could to avoid that fall from grace, slashing .291/.330/.558 over his final 27 games.  Meanwhile, injuries limited Escobar and he missed the final 14 games.  On one hand, the Braves probably win more games early with Escobar and probably win the Wild Card by a couple of games.  On the other hand, losing Escobar would have made a slumping club even worse.

2012: Our Journey Ends as Escobar Slips Again...In 2012, the Braves went with Tyler Pastornicky, also acquired with Gonzalez in the Escobar deal.  In Toronto, Escobar was ready to start his second full season in Toronto and was paid $5M for it.  Here's where it gets difficult.  Would the Braves have been willing to deal Escobar in our fictional world coming off a pretty decent 2011 season?  Pastornicky is still in Toronto in this world and probably with a chance to replace Gonzalez.  Remember that the Braves wouldn't have anybody close to taking over at shortstop as Andrelton Simmons just finished the season in high-A ball.  However, Atlanta's payroll was pretty high in 2012 already.  It seems unlikely that they would have been able to fit $5M more.  You can cut $1M from that by not bringing back the awful Jack Wilson.  Chad Durbin and Livan Hernandez were signed late for a combined $1.65M.  The more likely situation is that with the presence of Escobar, the Braves don't trade for Michael Bourn during 2011.  They had a hole in center, but Escobar was a serviceable lead-off hitter.

Escobar struggles through 2012, OPSing .644, his worst single-season OPS for a full season.  The Blue Jays had signed Escobar to a contract extension after 2011.  The Braves probably don't do that because they rarely lock up arbitration-eligible guys long-term.  Simmons might even replace Escobar like he replaced Pastornicky during the season with Escobar's terrible 2012 campaign. Either way, with one more year of arbitration, Escobar gets non-tendered with or without the gay slur on his eye black that gets him suspended in September of 2012.  He doesn't get used in the mega Blue Jays/Marlins deal last offseason.  He also doesn't get traded to the Rays by the Marlins.  Now, the Rays seem like a good landing place on a make-good contract for Escobar, but maybe he signs with the Mets instead.  Or the Twins.

Either way, even if the Braves don't trade Escobar in 2010, his time in Atlanta would be short-lived. Simmons was progressing through the minors with a developing bat and a major-league ready defense.  Whether he arrives in June of 2012 or April this season, he was coming and Escobar - with all of the baggage - would have had to hit a lot better than he actually did in 2012 to stave off Simmons' arrival for another season.

Once he arrived in the majors, Escobar was an exciting enigma.  He was a solid defender with a good bat, but often found controversy wherever he went.  The Braves could deal with that when his production was high.  The occasional defensive mental error or baserunning mistake was part of the package for one of the better shortstops in the league.  When he stopped producing, though, the Braves were finished with him.  Not that Puig will follow a similar path in Los Angeles.  He is thoroughly more talented.  However, if your antics cause both your opponents and your own team grief, you can't suck.  Just ask Mr. Dynamic.

Howdy Paul Janish!

With Andrelton Simmons hurt and Jack Wilson suffering from severe sucktitude (plus his finger hurts real bad), Atlanta send Todd Redmond (he of 101 games with Gwinnett, 0 with Atlanta) to the Cincinnati Red Legs for Paul Janish.  First, a moment of remembrance for Redmond.  Acquired in spring training of 2008 for Tyler Yates, Redmond was the Southern League Pitcher of the Year that year and has spent the last 3.5 years with Gwinnett like a modern day Brad Woodall. 

Janish is 29 years-old and has been around since 2004 when he was a fifth round selection from Rice University.  He made it to AAA in his third full season, the majors the following year in 2008 for 38 games.  After a terrible .601 OPS in 90 games in the bigs during 2009, Janish showed some worth in 2010 with a .260 average to go with his .723 OPS while playing in 82 games.  However, he regressed to .214 last year and has spent this year with Louisville, the Reds' AAA team.

With Janish, you aren't expecting much in terms of offense.  When a .723 OPS is a high-performance season, your expectations must be muted and true to form, he was hitting .237 for L'ville this year.  However, what you do expect is defense and Janish has been able to provide that.  While he has appeared on occasion at second and third in the bigs, the bulk of his time has come at shortstop where he has strong metrics.  He won't outperform Simmons in the field, but he's much better than Wilson is at this point in Wilson's career.

He doesn't have much experience as a utility player and has typically stuck at short, but has 21 MLB games at third and twelve at second base.  He even got on the mound for a couple of games in 2009 during blowouts.

Janish is a fix to the situation, though I don't think it means Frank Wren has to stop looking for better players.  The injury to Wilson forced a move.  Now, the Braves don't have to overspend on a player just to make a move.  The price tag for a guy like Marco Scutaro was probably too high so Wren's hoping it will come down before the deadline.  If the price tag for a bench player remains too high, the Braves at least have something for the short term.

That said...still hoping the Braves can find a bat for the middle infield.

Making the Most

And we're back.

After a brief reprieve, baseball's second half opens tonight as the Braves start a three-game set at home against the New York Mets.  The latter is a surprisingly half-game worse than the Braves' disappointing 46-39 record, though both trail the front-running Nationals.  On Sunday, the Braves will welcome Ben Sheets to the team, though there is no move just yet to define who he will replace.  It would seem reasonable to believe that the former Brewer would take Mike Minor's place as Randall Delgado has outpitched the "Start Me or Trade Me" Minor.

That's the easy choice.  What to do about shortstop is the much tougher one.  Andrelton Simmons hustled a double against the Phillies in the final game of the season's first half, but slid head-first into second and broke his right pinky.  I could go into a whole diatribe on how much I despise the head-first slide, but regardless, losing Simmons is a massive blow for the Braves' chances of making a run toward October glory.  While Simmons will likely be back before September, possibly well before, the Braves don't have a reasonable option in-house.

Jack Wilson is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad, baseball player.  Other than that, he's a swell guy.  However, the Braves would need plus production from the rest of the team to escape the gigantic hole Wilson would provide.  While it's almost inevitable that Wilson's stats would benefit from playing five times a week from his current .174 average (.203 BABIP), the chances that his offensive numbers mounted to more than a few more singles than usual are minimal.  Even worse, Wilson's skills are far more useful in the AL than the NL.  You can't use him for bunts when the pitcher follows and in close games, you are in the destructive position of having to empty your bench both for his spot and the pitcher spot while probably using a third bench player to play short.  And for all of the talk about his formally awesome glove, Wilson's in his third consecutive year of negative UZR.

The former starter Tyler Pastornicky is not an example of a possible posthype sleeper.  Even if Pastornicky had hit better than .255 with a nearly 2-to-1 K/BB rate at Gwinnett, the simple truth is Pastornicky's ability at short is limited to a game here and there.

Of the six other options at AA and AAA, none of them can even match Pastornicky's .676 OPS at Gwinnett and probably wouldn't be a defensive lift over Wilson.

Now, the more conservative view is to sit back, hope the rest of the team can provide a lift, and deal with the production (or lack there of) at shortstop until Simmons can come back.  I do understand the idea, but if the Braves wish to make the most of this season, they should act and thankfully, according to several bloggers, that is exactly what the Braves wish to do.  As they open the second half, Pastornicky hasn't even been recalled yet as they hope to not need to make another procedural move.  And let's not act like replacing Simmons for a month should be the only goal.  Jack Wilson was already performing at a substandard pace and with the bench troubles the Braves have had, getting a middle infielder should have already been on the wish list.  Simmons's injury only upped the urgency. 

Who are the best targets?

Marco Scutaro - While his price tag might hurt the Braves' interest, Scutaro has to be at the top of the list.  While defensively comparable to Wilson at this point in their careers, Scutaro actually comes with a bat.  An 0.9 WAR player, Scutaro won't be a difference maker, but he can hold down the fort and provide sufficient support for the Atlanta Braves down the stretch.  Scutaro has evolved nicely from a backup utility player to a solid enough shortstop.  This year for the Rockies, Scutaro has hit .277, but his OBP, SLG, wOBA are all slightly down.  That likely wouldn't be improved by a move to the Ted.  Also a concern is the $3M or so that is left on his contract.  How much the Braves would be willing to take on at this point of the season for essentially a bench piece for any playoff run is of some debate.  However, of the known available options, Scutaro is probably the best.

Brendan Ryan - Often mentioned as a likely pickup for the Braves, Ryan has done what seems impossible by posting a 1.6 WAR while hitting .187.  That makes me think of Demolition Man and "Murder, Death, Kill" which sounds like an awesome nickname for Ryan.  As far as defense goes, Ryan provides it at a Gold Glove level and has been a tremendous defender at shortstop since arriving in the bigs for the Cardinals.  Plus, he had a cool mustache.  The Braves can retain him next year via arbitration, though how much would you pay for awesome defense when you already have Simmons?  Offensively, Ryan gets you some steals, but not a whole lot more.

Willie Bloomquist - A prototypical utility player, Bloomquist played every position except pitcher and catcher in 2010.  Bloomquist has had a nice little season for the Diamondbacks, hitting .294/.324/.393 while getting a lot of playing time at shortstop due to injuries.  However, his shortstop this season has been awfully close to Pastornicky's level so you are hoping to bank on Bloomquist performing at a high level offensively.  True to form, he's posted a .757 OPS at home and a .675 OPS away so there would likely be regression.  In addition, you are also committing to some degree to Bloomquist as a backup in 2013 as he inked a two-year, $3.8M contract last November.  He's a better 25th man than Wilson because you can move him around and he typically gives you a nice average and a few steals.  With the D'Backs still in contention, he might not be easy to acquire.

Obviously, the options aren't awesome by any means, but any of the three would represent an improvement over Wilson.  Scutaro gives you starter-capable offense from short, Ryan provides top-flight defense, and Bloomquist is your classic example of the last guy on an NL bench.  Of course, all three have their concerns.  Scutaro makes a lot of money to be a starter for a month and a backup for the rest of the year while Ryan has barely outhit Wilson and Bloomquist's defense is bad at shortstop.  Regardless, to make the most of this opportunity to get to October baseball, the Braves need to improve. 

The Myth of Matt

When Atlanta allowed Matt Diaz to leave following the 2010 season, I had some mixed feelings.  I had grown to be quite fond of the guy we at Chopnation had nicknamed Magellan for his often strange ways of tracking down a flyball to left.  That said, for the money that Diaz could command, the results needed to be higher than Diaz had been able to muster in 2010 when he hit just .250 with a .319 wOBA and 0.5 WAR.  Atlanta rightfully non-tendered him, jettisoning him the same way they did Kelly Johnson.  Matty had some good years with the Braves, including three seasons of 2.0 WAR or better, and rightfully built a reputation as a left-handed pitching masher, but he had been paid $2.55M in 2010 and in arbitration, chances are he would have gotten a raise despite a bad season.

Diaz went on to sign with the Pirates for 2 years and $4M.  Good for him. 

And then, Frank Wren screwed me and brought him back in a trade last August 31st for some unGodly reason.  The Pirates chipped in some cash and the Braves would send pitcher Eliecer Cardenas to the Pirates a month later.  For what it's worth, Cardenas hasn't played this year because of injuries and isn't really a prospect to get too upset about losing. 

However, with Diaz back in the fold, the Braves had their left-handed pitching masher.  Yay!  Except, one thing.  Diaz wasn't hitting lefties with authority.  I mean, he hit .295 against them last year and while that is nice, only seven of his 32 hits went for extra bases.  A .692 OPS with no speed/defense does not make for a good platoon partner.  The previous year, he had hit .273 with an .830 OPS against lefties.  When you only have one skill that sets you apart from your co-workers, you better deliver that skill and Diaz was failing to do so last year.  Still, Wren got him because I guess (hope?) that John Schuerholtz told him about how Diaz was such a find all those years ago. 

Diaz was given the opportunity to redeem himself this year and wouldn't ya know it...he's not.  He's hitting .275 with a .754 OPS against lefties.  That's all well and good and everything, but often, the only reason he finds himself in the lineup is because the guy on the mound has the nerve to throw with his left arm.  Diaz is supposed to punish that guy.  A .754 OPS ain't cutting it. 

Having built a reputation, it's sometimes hard to shed that reputation whether it's bad or good.  Fans on facebook, Yahoo, DOB's blog, Atlantabraves.com, and a few mental hospitals in the greater Atlanta area still swear that Diaz destroys lefties.  He crushes them!  He pulverizes the shit out of them!  He grinds up their bones! 

But the results...they just aren't there.  And Atlanta is suffering.  Diaz against righties is a sad, depressing tale full of disappointment so the only saving grace is that he can destroy those tough lefties.  So far this season, Diaz is 3 of 28 against righties.  The dirty little secret is that you can try to protect Diaz, but eventually, he will face a righty and he's simply not suited to take on that task.  It's like Eric Hinske against lefties.  If you could bring both of them into a lab and mold them together, you might have a crappy bench player, but at least you wouldn't be holding up two spots on the bench for guys who supposedly have the exact same skill (severe platoon splits in their favor), but aren't producing.

Atlanta's bench has been a monumental failure this season and bringing back Diaz last year is looking like a mistake on Wren's behalf.  Something needs to be done about the black hole of WilDiSke.  Of the three, only Hinske can even say he has produced in the last three seasons.  Start with Diaz and Wilson and go from there, Frank.  Your team needs your wheeling and dealin.' 

Please, Frank.  You're our only hope.