Should Atlanta Trade Ozzie Albies?

Grant McAuley - Follow on Twitter - used with permission

As hopefully all of you know, the Braves are rebuilding. In the details, all rebuilds look different. Some focus on bats, some focus on arms, the players moved are different, the players acquired are different, timelines change, etc.

But zoomed out, all rebuilds follow the same path. Trade present assets for future assets, become very bad, build your system back up, get decent, trade future assets for present assets, get good. All of these parts hold varying amounts of importance but since it really isn't that hard to get bad, and once you get bad, the system is designed to help you build up your system, I've always believed the most critical part of any rebuild is that second to last one.

Trading away your own prospects, the ones you've gone through years of turmoil to acquire, for major league talent is when the fate of rebuilds gets decided. Who to trade? Who to trade for? Is it time? Is our window opening or are we still another year away? Bottom line, you get these questions wrong, you can wreck a lot of the good you've done. Get them right, you can propel your team to another level.

All of this is relevant because this is where Atlanta now sits. Jose Quintana was traded on Thursday and there were several reports by very reputable people saying the Braves were very much in the mix, even going as far as to say the Braves and their offer finished second to the Cubs, who eventually landed the valuable left-hander.

That was all very interesting in its own right but then Jeff Passan of Yahoo tweeted this:

Sources: The Braves made a strong and serious run at Jose Quintana, with an offer that included 20-year-old SS Ozzie Albies.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 15, 2017

For full context he did follow it up with this tweet:

Let me re-characterize this: Albies was definitely part of potential offer for Quintana, but source cautioned it never got to serious stage. https://t.co/K4ohRYjKBL

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 15, 2017

So, this is interesting. There are a few ways we can take this but we're just going to focus on Albies for now. Should Atlanta be willing to trade Ozzie Albies?

The answer is, as it almost always is with these types of questions, it depends.

It sounds like a cop out answer but it really isn't. Trades are all about value. You're giving up value to get value. Forget the names of players or your personal feelings for a second and just ask yourself a simple question; is there a player or are there players out there that match or exceed the value of Ozzie Albies?

The answer is of course. If Yoan Moncada or Eloy Jimenez or Gleyber Torres can be traded then obviously Albies can. Whatever you think of his talents or his ceiling, there absolutely is a player or players out there that equal his value. It depends on the return.

But when you say it depends on the return, people usually just think of the talent. But it's not just talent. There's another, equally important, variable in the return - timing.

The way the economics of baseball work is players are under team control for around 6 years after they're called up. It's not exactly that simple but that's a decent summary. The Braves are a relatively small market team when it comes to payroll. They don't swim in the deepest waters of free agency and therefore have to manage service time and contracts of their young players wisely.

What this means for their rebuild is they have to match up the assets they control and when they control them with their contention window. Take a guy like Quintana - he's under team control for 3 more years after this year. If you're going to trade multiple future assets for him, you have to believe you have a legitimate chance of contending for division titles and World Series titles somewhere in those 3 years and, preferably, all of them.

Even if you get equal talent back, trading away a significant part of your future for a piece that helps you win 82 games is a fool's errand and watching them walk out the door just as you're starting to contend makes it even worse.

And therein, as they say, lies the rub. This is why those questions I asked at the beginning are so crucial. They have to be answered objectively, honestly, and with supreme accuracy. Are you ready to contend now? Is it time to pull that trigger?

In my personal opinion, it's not that time for Atlanta. Unless they are acquiring assets who are under team control for 4 or 5 years or more, I would not pull that trigger. I think the team is playing well right now but a bit above its head and the favorable schedule has clouded some judgment. Even if they did make a run at a wild card spot, you're still only guaranteed one game and that simply isn't enough to start mortgaging the future.

That's just my opinion, though, and as of today, Coppy has yet to ask for it before making a decision so the real question is where does he, and the front office, think this team is on their timeline? The answer to that question will dictate the steps we see from here.

Would I trade Ozzie Albies? Absolutely, I would. Everyone on the team, except maybe Freddie, has a price. But for me, the value you get back has to match or exceed in talent AND timing. It has to be both.

Would I trade him for a 28-year-old starting pitcher with 3 1/2 years of control?

No.

Braves "Steal" A Draft Choice

Credit: Keith Allison via Flickr
Creative Commons

"A steal."

That's what ESPN's Keith Law called the deal in which the Braves acquired lefthander Brian Matusz and the 76th overall pick of the 2016 draft for pitchers Brandon Barker and Trevor Belicek. I don't always agree with Law, but on this one, he nails it right on the head. This was such a no brainer for the Braves you have to wonder what exactly the Orioles were thinking.

Both of the pitchers the Orioles acquired are worth a look, but neither will thoroughly impress you. Each were the last two 16th round selections by the Braves (which makes the 76th overall they received all the more amazing). A righty out of Mercer, Barker finished his first full season in AAA-Gwinnett after climbing the ladder in quick order. Barker gives up his fair share of line drives, but not many homers. He relies on controlling the strikezone and not exacerbating matters with walks. I'd like his chances for future success more if he could induce more groundballs. I'd also like him a lot more if he could miss more bats. All in all, Barker is a C-grade prospect who could become a bottom-of-the-rotation figure, but has a higher chance of bouncing around the league collecting his fair share of AAA uniforms.

Belicek has some absurd stats - highlighted by a 32K-to-1BB rate over 28.1 innings spent mostly at Rome. He spent last year as a starter after the Braves plucked him from Texas A&M-CC. A lefty with good size, Belicek could have nice value as a left-hand reliever. I'd like to see him pushed aggressively considering this is his Age-23 year and he's in low-A ball. The O's are apparently moving him up to the Carolina League for another challenge. As is the case with Caleb Dirks, a reliever with great metrics the Braves sent packing in a small deal, the Braves might have given up a potential solid major league piece in Belicek. That said, despite how difficult the Braves make it seem, finding quality arms for a major league bullpen isn't the most difficult thing.

The Braves received the lefthander Matusz, who was only the marquee name of the deal, and then immediately designated him for assignment. He had struggled tremendously to begin the year, though I would have preferred seeing if he could right the ship this year and repackage him in a trade. That said, Matusz is a woefully unremarkable reliever. The Orioles were dumb enough to give him $3.9M in arbitration before the season and it didn't take them long to have buyer's remorse.

But the players in this deal and even the salaries are inconsequential for the Braves. The salary relief may have aided the Orioles and getting a pair of minor league pitchers with good stats probably helped, but the Braves saw one thing: $839,900 in bonus slot money. That's how much money the Braves gained in available slot money for their draftees in this year's draft, giving them a total of $13,224,100. The Braves can go under-slot with their new pick, giving them extra money to allocate to other drafted players who are seeking overslot to sign. On the flipside, Atlanta can add another Top 100 player in this draft. Atlanta now selects #3, #40, #44, #76, #80.

The added selection gives Atlanta increased flexibility to utilize a bigger pool of cash. That's why this trade was a no-brainer. Atlanta essentially cashed in a pair of 16th rounders who didn't rank among their Top 30 prospects into a guy that could be a Top 30 prospect within a year. And you don't have to go too far back to find a #76th overall selection that blossomed into a superstar. Ten years ago, it's where Giancarlo Stanton was selected.