Sean Rodriguez Trade A Precursor to More?

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

It's been a busy afternoon for the Atlanta Braves. Shortly after the surprising announcement that they had promoted Max Fried to the Show, the team announced that they had dealt utility man Sean Rodriguez to the Pirates in exchange for minor leaguer Connor Joe. Jace Peterson returns from Gwinnett to replace Rodriguez.

Rodriguez signed on Thanksgiving last fall to the tune of $11.5 million over two seasons. At the time, the Braves loved what Rodriguez provided for them. He could play everywhere and gave the Braves a bridge at two positions - second and third - where they were waiting on prospects to develop. He also gave them an option against left-hand pitching, which the Braves needed with Peterson penciled in at second base.

But things changed in a hurry. Before spring training, Rodriguez was involved in a horrific car wreck that sent his family to the hospital. While everyone would be okay enough to head home in a few days, Rodriguez would need shoulder surgery. In response, the Braves acquired Brandon Phillips to be their everyday second baseman. Initial fears were that Rodriguez might miss the entire season, but the tireless worker returned to play in his first rehab game on July 1. After a few weeks, he made his return to the majors on July 17. Over 15 games and 47 PA, Rodriguez had done little at the plate except hit a pair of pinch-hit home runs.

Rodriguez seemed to fit less into the July and August version of the Braves than he had with the proposed 25-man roster in November and December. The Braves had added Matt Adams and Danny Santana to the team while Johan Camargo had emerged to become a significant member of the Braves moving forward. The recent call-up of Ozzie Albies only compounded the problem of finding Rodriguez at-bats - even with Matt Kemp on the mend.

Who the Braves received in the deal isn't all that important. But...Connor Joe was the 39th overall selection in the 2014 draft. He was considered a bit of a reach at the time as a borderline Top 100 prospect. Despite being primarily a 1B/RF in college, the Pirates decided to focus Joe on catching - something he was more of a project at. He quickly was hurt and didn't play the rest of the summer. Once healthy, the Pirates scrapped that idea and sent him to first base, then third base, and then the corner outfield slots. He's only made a cameo at 3B this season as he's shifted between 1B and the corner OF positions more.

Joe wasn't drafted for his glove, though. Unfortunately, hitting professional pitching is a bit tougher than hitting West Coast Conference pitching. Over parts of three seasons, Joe has slashed .257/.352/.361 while climbing from A-ball to Double-A. He doesn't strike out much and is lauded for his professionalism, but he's not much of a prospect right now.

What the Braves received in the deal is much more important.

First, they received some financial flexibility this season and next. Similar to how the Braves traded away Jaime Garcia for a project rather than pay down salary to - in essence - buy a prospect, the Braves are making more of a salary dump. Rodriguez was owed roughly $2M this year and $5M next year. That's cleared with this deal. There is also the subject of the $1.5M signing bonus. I don't have any particulars related to that, but typically, signing bonuses are spread evenly over a contract. The Braves have probably paid half of the signing bonus already and might even pay the other half. Ignoring that, they saved $7M or so.

Second, the Braves cleared another 40-man roster spot. I mentioned how tight things could become on the 40-man roster a few days ago when addressing the Ronald Acuna situation. With this trade, Rodriguez's spot is cleared. For more on players who might need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, here's a list. Joe, by the way, will be eligible.

Third, this deal naturally leads to the possibility that more is on the way. By more, I mean both more trades of veterans through the waiver trade process and more in the sense that something bigger might happen. While adding a well-regarded established player at this point seems unlikely - Chris Archer isn't going through waivers, people - the Braves could set themselves up to add another prospect. As long as a prospect is not on the 40-man roster, they do not have to pass through waivers.

How might such a scenario play out? Say a Contending Team is trying to add a big piece to their roster. That might come from the Braves, but it doesn't have to. Say the Contending Team needs to clear salary to add the player they want. The Braves, who have shaved off $6M or $7M or so in salary, could absorb a significant contract while also getting a good prospect. In some respects, that's similar to the Touki Toussaint trade.

Either way, the Braves felt that paying Rodriguez $5M in 2018 was a bit too much. It's unfortunate because of everything Rodriguez went through - the car wreck, the quick rehab, the early struggles. Rodriguez came to Atlanta to be a difference maker for a young team on the rise. Now, he heads back to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Atlanta is primed to make another big August move or two as they look to build toward contention in 2018.

Braves Pull Off Two Deals

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Flickr

What a day to spend most of it out with the family at the annual Monacan Powwow here in central Virginia. We have two trades to digest - one far more interesting than other so let's start there as the Braves agree to a one-for-one exchange with the Cardinals in which first baseman Matt Adams heads to Atlanta for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. Unknown cash considerations will also be part of the deal to help pay for the remainder of Adams' $2.8M salary. The Braves also designated Anthony Recker for assignment.

Let's talk about Yepez first. The 19-year-old was hitting .275/.309/.387 this year and was mostly playing third base this season after being stuck at first base for the majority of his first two seasons. Overall, Yepez has hit .281/.335/.407 in parts of three years, including notably worse numbers over 59 games with Rome.

I had Yepez ranked #27th in the system before spring training and he does have some good projection left in his bat. He was Frank Wren's last big signing on the international market and if the power ever became legit, his hit tool would help Yepez climb up some prospect lists. But you can say that about any number of prospects. The bigger problem for Yepez is one, I, and I don't think I am alone, was not convinced he had the chops to stay at third base. Once you take him off third base and put him at first, his prospect status is hurt. It'll be interesting to see if Yepez continues at the hot corner after the trade, but even though I liked Yepez, his loss just doesn't do much for me. Of course, if Yepez starts to perform up to his best-case projections, this deal won't look so hot in five years.

Moving on to Adams, the Braves have acquired a stopgap first baseman who should be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Adams posted a combined 3.6 fWAR in his two seasons as an unquestioned major leaguer, but injuries and poor play have resulted in a 0.7 fWAR since the beginning of 2015. Things were so bad this season that Adams not only lost a timeshare ownership of first base - he became a backup as the Cardinals moved Matt Carpenter to first base. Early on, the Cardinals tried him out in left field, but he's ventured into the outfield just once since April 10 and it happened to be the game in which he hit his only homer of the year against the Braves. Other than that, he's been a pinch hitter who occasionally plays a little first base.

Overall, Adams has played 31 games this season and picked up 53 PA. With those trips to the plate, he's hit .292/.340/.396. He carries a negative fWAR mainly because his time in left field has looked extra-strength terrible so far.

Let's dive deeper into Adams. A left-handed hitter, Adams has a .332 career wOBA and 110 wRC+. Basically, that's Jason Kipnis territory without the added bonus of being a very good second baseman. Adams displays plus-pop (.183 ISO) and while strikeouts can be expected (23.2%), it's worth noting that since 2011, Adams ranks 94th of 395 players in strikeout percentage. Adams is not going to walk that frequently and will depend on a solid BABIP to keep his average and OBP in decent standing.

Don't expect many groundballs off Adams bat. He ranks 50th since 2011 in GB/FB ratio. Similar to former Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche, Adams gets under the ball a good deal in order to drive it. Unlike many guys who have such a pronounced uppercut to their swing, Adams isn't a hyper-pull hitter (actually, he's just about average).

The comparison to LaRoche also continues into their hit profile. These numbers are since 2011.

Name	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
LaRoche	0.90	21%	37.4%	41.5%	6.8%	13.9%	12.1%	52.5%	35.3%
Adams	0.91	21.2%	37.5%	41.4%	6.5%	12.5%	14.7%	50.0%	35.3%

Uncanny.

This is the part of the article where I talk about splits data. The Cardinals, who again rarely started Adams this season, have been able to keep the first baseman from facing lefties as a result. Just three times this season has Adams faced a lefty - he's 0-for-3, by the way. Let's roll those three plate appearances into the last three seasons of his data and we see a sad result. Since the beginning of 2014, Adams has been owned by lefties. He's managed just a .256 wOBA against them and a putrid 59 wRC+. Hence why the Cardinals realized pretty early that Adams was not meant to be a full-time starter.

Defensively, Adams ranges from adequate to above-average at first base over his career with a 15 career rPM and 12 total DRS to go with a 2.0 UZR/150. His range isn't great and he's a bit prone to lapses in judgment. Plus, he's not one of those guys who starts a bunch of double plays (like Freddie Freeman). Basically, he's not bad, but he's never going to look like a Gold Glover.

The acquisition of Adams cost the Braves a potentially good prospect. Could it also bring in a good prospect should Atlanta choose to trade him before the July trading deadline? It's doubtful. Another team will have to be as desperate as the Braves are right now because Adams is a flawed player. To use him properly, you need a right-handed option at first base which, by the way, Atlanta also lacks. But if Adams bashes a dozen or more homers during his run with the Braves, a team could be willing to give him a longer look.

Moving forward, Adams looks like the everyday starter at first base. There are a few issues related to this. #1, who goes down? It would appear that answer is Rio Ruiz just because he was only brought up because of Freeman's injury. That might be a mistake - nearly as big of a mistake as Max Scherzer's pitch that Ruiz jumped on for his first career homer yesterday. Obviously, it's premature to base much on one game, but Ruiz was scorching at Gwinnett and many of us felt he had earned an opportunity in the majors. Like Adams, he needs to be protected against lefthanders, but as the Braves search for offense to replace Freeman, having both Adams and Ruiz in the lineup against righties is a good move.

Obviously, this leads me to think Emilio Bonifacio or Danny Santana would be better players to kick off the team. Neither have options, but neither are long-term assets that the Braves need much of a look at. Atlanta could also demote a pitcher rather than carry eight for the bullpen.

That said, I do expect it to be Ruiz. Atlanta has had many opportunities to get rid of Bonifacio. Instead, he has played in 30-of-40 games. Brian Snitker loves what Bonifacio brings to the table.

For reasons.

Turning back to Adams, his time with the Braves could be short. Atlanta could decide to repackage him in a deal in July - theoretically, around the point Freeman is ready to return. The chances of that and how well the Braves might do in a trade would be dependent on Adams' performance. Either way, it's difficult to see Adams playing for the Braves beyond 2017. He's arbitration-eligible for one more year and the Braves could bring him back, but he would be due a raise beyond his $2.8M and the Braves simply aren't going to pay a backup first baseman that kind of cash - even if you can occasionally swing him into left field to answer the question of who was the better defensive left fielder, Evan Gattis or Adams?

Before I forget, in an unrelated move, the Braves acquired righty Enrique Burgos from the Diamondbacks for cash. Burgos had recently been designated for assignment by Arizona to open up a spot on their 40-man roster. He's pitched often the last two seasons for the big league club (73 total games) and struggled with control and keeping the ball in yard. Burgos can strikeout a small village, but like many young arms the Braves take a chance on, he's prone to losing the strike zone on the regular. This season, in 13 innings, he's walked eleven. His walk rate has fluctuated between 11.5% and 22.7% during his career, but it's typically in the 13%-15% range. That puts a lot of unneeded stress on a pitcher.

His control issues also present themselves in another way - because he can't control the strike zone, when a pitch does flutter into the zone (typically in hitter's counts), it leads to good contact. AZ Snake Pit put it this way when referring to his numbers in the majors the last two years, "If we look at the 214 relievers with 60+ innings in 2015-16, Burgos’s BABIP of .339 ranks ninth. And his LOB% (runners left on base) of 65.8% ranks 209th. Put another way, when batters put the ball in play against him, they were considerably more likely than usual to get on base. And when runners got on base, they were considerably more likely to come around and score, rather than be stranded. The former is partly on Burgos; his hard-hit rate was 34.3%, ranking him 21st, and those hard-hit balls are more likely to turn into hits."

Burgos has a good fastball that averages 95.7 mph in the majors. He pairs that with a slider that is roughly 8 mph slower. If he can get ahead on the fastball, the slider has swing-and-miss properties.

If you are curious, Burgos has used his final option this season.

Whether or not Burgos joins Adams in the major leagues at some point is unknown. His numbers don't warrant a call-up. Right now, he's a project for the Braves to work with. A scout probably saw something that might be fixable. Hopefully, it is. Either way, you always take a chance on power arms when you can get them for cheap.

Braves Sign James Loney

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I was in the middle of writing a (longer) article on what the Braves should do in the Freddie Freeman-less present, but Atlanta decided to keep me from polishing it up by announcing what their plans were. The Braves have signed former Dodger and Ray James Loney. The now 33-year-old also has played for the Red Sox (he did?) and most recently the Mets last season. He hit just .265/.307/.397.

Before signing with the Braves, Loney had been in the Tigers' system. In 16 games, he had a .315 wOBA before being cut less than two weeks ago.

James Loney is definitely not Freddie Freeman, but what do the Braves have? Presumably, the deal is a major league one as the Braves acted so decisively to acquire him. That would mean that the Braves will need to find a 40-man roster spot - maybe Freeman? - and drop a member of the 25-man roster once Loney is ready to be activated for the next couple of days. That likely will be Rio Ruiz, who was called up to join the Braves for tonight's game.

(7 PM edit: According to Mark Bowman and David O'Brien, the deal is actually a minor league deal. As such, my opinion of the signing is much different. I like this deal for minor league depth.)

So, did the Braves make the right decision? In my opinion...no.

It's not that I don't understand the impulse. Atlanta is looking for a stable option to drop at first base without sacrificing much in terms of money or players (if they traded for someone). Certainly, Loney has played a lot more first base than any of the other options the Braves had in-house. However, Loney has hit a wall. It's called the 30's. In his 20s, Loney was a .285/.340/.421 hitter. Those are below-average numbers for a first baseman, but overall, decent stats. You might even say he was a poor man's Nick Markakis.

The last three years, or his Age-30 to Age-32 seasons, have seen a stark decline in production to .281/.325/.378. In his defense, his numbers look a bit better when you limit him to a platoon option (.295/.342/.401). Are the Braves going to platoon him, though? Seems unlikely - mainly because they lack the option to do so short of moving Flowers to first when a southpaw is on the mound. That, by the way, is not the worst idea.

Furthermore, a narrative about Loney needs to die. That is the narrative that Loney is an excellent defender at first base. It's never been particularly accurate and even less so now. Since the beginning of 2014, Loney has a -2.5 UZR/150. Of the 16 first basemen that qualify, that ranks him 12th. Braves fans typically scoff at defensive metrics because Freddie Freeman ranks so poorly in them, but context matters. Freeman ranks 4th in UZR/150 since 2014 with a 3.3 grade.

Personally, I would have stayed in-house and tried to talk a guy like Loney into a minor league pact as backup. In the mean time, I would have gone with Jace Peterson at first base and Rio Ruiz at third. Both would need platoon partners and I would have gone with Flowers and Johan Camargo until Adonis Garcia was ready. But alas, the Braves didn't call me.

No matter what the Braves could have done, there would have been no replacing Freeman. That much is clear. Things are likely to be bleak over the next couple of months as the Braves wish for a quick recovery for Freeman. As a great man once said, we are now living the darkest timeline.

Braves Acquire Danny Santana Among Monday's Moves

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

It was an off night for the Braves, but they still were busy with a trade, a player optioned, and a player released. Let's look at each of these moves.

First, the Braves traded Kevin Chapman and some cash to the Minnesota Twins for Danny Santana. I was never enamored with Chapman after the Braves acquired him late in spring training. He was "just an arm" who the Braves took a chance on because he was left-handed. He had a bad ERA in Gwinnett, but a good FIP/xFIP. Despite that, he was heading nowhere and is unlikely to be anything more than Quad-A depth for the Twins.

So, let's look at Santana. A switch-hitter, Santana burst on the scene in 2014 with a strong .319/.353/.472 slash that included a 3.2 fWAR. Santana also added 20 steals in 24 opportunities. He split time between shortstop and center field and wasn't particularly gifted at either. Still, when you come out of the minors with just a couple dozen games above Double-A and post a .362 wOBA and 132 wRC+, people will take notice.

The problem was...he wasn't that good. That's not a slight, it's just a fact. Remember Chris Johnson's big 2013 when he became the BABIP God? He received that moniker because he had an unsustainable .394 BABIP. Santana was a similar case in that his BABIP was .405 in 2014. He swung at everything and despite average contact rates, the balls kept finding holes. Santana was never this kind of prospect in the minors with a wOBA personal-best of .338.

Predictably, Santana fell flat the following year. He would bat an abysmal .215/.241/.291 with a negative fWAR. I wish I could say he rebounded in 2016, but he continued to disappoint. He also missed significant time with a strained right hamstring, a strained left hamstring, and finally a left-shoulder sprain that ended his season. So far this season, Santana was posting a .255 wOBA in 26 PA as he struggled to find much playing time.

How does Santana fit in for the Braves, who immediately added him to the active roster for tomorrow's game? That's a fair question. Santana is not a big bat who will give the Braves much of a lift, nor become an obvious choice to DH in upcoming games in AL parks. He is essentially a younger Emilio Bonifacio at this point. He plays all of the positions on the infield except first base and can play all three outfield positions. He's not great at any of these, mind you. His shortstop numbers are especially bad.

For a team that needed a bat or two for the bench, Santana is just not that guy. He carries a 3.9% career walk rate, which is not much better in the minors, along with a 23.3% strikeout rate. His ZiPS projection for the rest of the season looks like .259/.290/.375 - which might be a bit too optimistic. Now, certainly, there is a chance he catches fire and has a nice little run, but it seems optimistic to believe that's possible.  Santana, who was designated for assignment by the Twins when the Braves traded for him, is out of options.

To make room for Santana, Lane Adams was optioned. Adams was already one of the Braves' top pinch hitters after going 2-for-8 in the role and he had already added a pair of steals. Overall, he was 3-for-9 (all singles) during his brief run in the majors. He was on fire before being called up, slashing .333/.352/.588 with Gwinnett.

Honestly, folks, I'm not getting this move. Is Santana better than Bonifacio? Sure. I'll go with this hot take - he's a better Bonifacio. That's fine for the 25th guy on the team, but now the Braves are getting multiple Bonifacios. Was Adams the answer? Probably not, but at least he had been recently successful. While the Braves didn't lose much of anything by trading Kevin Chapman, I don't believe they gained much either. Perhaps this deal is a precursor to another move or two. At least, I hope it is.

Finally, the Gwinnett Braves welcome Lane Adams back, but say goodbye to Ryan Howard. The Braves and Howard gave it a shot, but Howard looked lost against Triple-A pitching. In eleven games, the former Subway spokesman had just seven hits, all singles except for one homer. He hit .184 with two walks and eleven K's. He also played just one game in the field. All in all, it wasn't working. This could be the end of the line for Howard or he might try to make it work somewhere else. I liked this signing when it happening, but it clearly wasn't working.

The Braves Sign David Hale

Braves Acquire Brandon Phillips for Practically Nothing

By Rdikeman (Own work) [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons

The Cincinnati Reds spent the offseason trying to find a new home for Brandon Phillips. They nearly sent him to Atlanta in January, but Phillips balked at the deal. He wanted further assurances that his no-trade protection would be respected even as a trade would typically negate any 10/5 conditions - or 10 years in the majors, 5 years with the same team.

In the end, the Braves and Phillips came to an agreement with the Braves honored a limited no-trade clause that blocks trades to a dozen teams that was already part of the deal. Those dozen teams are unknown to this point, but most of the time, each year, a list is filed of teams the player would not accept a trade to. One can assume the list includes teams with the least chance to be successful in 2017, though cities Phillips is not fond of may also be included. Further, the Braves agreed to pay Phillips a bonus of $500,000 in the event that he's traded.

The money part of this deal is very fascinating. Shortly after the 2012 season began, Phillips agreed on a six-year, $72.5M contract extension with the Reds that went into effect that year. After making $12.5M in the first year of the deal, he went down to $10M the following year and with each subsequent season, his salary went up $1M. This year, the final season of that deal, is worth $14M. There are also other conditions like award bonuses ($75K for All-Star selection) and some deferred money (unsure about the specifics there). What is most interesting about this deal is that the Braves are on the hook for just $1M for the 2017 season with the Reds covering the rest of the money.

The Braves completed this deal without having to surrender a prospect. Lefty Andrew McKirahan and righty Carlos Portuondo will head to the Reds in the deal. McKirahan is the more interesting name of the two because he pitched in 27 games for the Braves two years ago. A former Cubs farmhand, McKirahan was a 2015 Rule 5 pick by the Marlins. At the time, he was coming off his Age-24 season split between High-A ball and Double-A where he had a 2.08 ERA and a 4 K/BB rate.

After failing to make the Marlins, McKirahan was waived and picked up by the Braves. His time with the Braves was interrupted after three games because of a PED suspension. Once able to return in late July, McKirahan was a regular member of Fredi Gonzalez's bullpen. His final 19 games were especially ugly, though. In 18 innings, he gave up 16 runs while striking out 14. Last spring, he was expected to compete for a bullpen spot, but a recommendation of a second Tommy John surgery ended his bid. He was not expected to compete for a bullpen spot this spring.

Portuondo, who spent eight years in Cuba's top baseball league, lasted just one year in the Braves' system after Atlanta gave the defector $900K nearly a year ago. A fastball/slider pitcher with decent movement on his low 90's heater, Portuondo spent last year with Carolina and Gwinnett. His numbers were pedestrian with some poor control, especially for a 28-year-old.

To sum up, the Braves surrendered two minor league bullpen depth arms and absorbed a million dollars for a three-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner, and one-time Silver Slugger. Of course, to be fair, Brandon Phillips is not that guy anymore. His game took a step backward after 2011. Since then, his wOBA has been between .300 and .325 with a five-year average of .313. His wRC+ has been anywhere between 88 and 101 with a 94 average. After a number of years as one of the top ten or so second baseman in the game, he's a borderline Top 20 second baseman now.

Projections for Phillips - take them with a grain of salt because they include the Reds park - obviously did not expect much of an improvement for a guy entering his Age-36 season. PECOTA projected .269/.306/.390 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 0.7 WARP. Steamer expected similar results. That said, if Phillips's bat ultimately performs closer to the last two seasons rather than the two projections I mentioned, the Braves are getting a guy who hit .293/.324/.405 over his last 1200 or so PA with a .315 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Not a great improvement, mind you, but a more valuable player than the PECOTA/Steamer version.

While we are on the subject of value, we cannot ignore that Phillips' declining value hasn't been solely a result of his bat. His UZR/150 was between 8.1 and 12.3 for five years before 2015. That season, it fell to 2.1. Last season, it was -2.3. Strong DRS and rPM numbers both cratered last year. Defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable for just one season, but it seems clear that Phillips has lost a step and his instincts aren't nearly as quick. He turns 36 in June so that shouldn't be surprising. How far his defense deteriorates, however, could be something to watch. If he's at least average, the Braves will be happy.

By SD Dirk [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Where does Phillips fit in? Well, the Braves clearly felt pressure to make a move in response to Sean Rodriguez's car accident. A lot is still unknown about just how severe Rodriguez's shoulder surgery was as I've heard between 3-6 months of recuperation time as a possible time table.On the other hand, David O'Brien tweeted that "most if not all" of the 2017 season could be lost for Rodriguez. Expected to platoon with Jace Peterson at second, Rodriguez was a solid addition for the Braves this offseason before the injury. Here's the bad news - Phillips is not a better platoon option. He has carried a reverse split the last three years of .286 wOBA/76 wRC+ against lefties and .319 wOBA/98 wRC+ against righties. Peterson showed potential platoon ability by putting up a .326 wOBA and 101 wRC+ last year against righties. Relegating Peterson to just backup duty would appear short-sighted, though the injury to Rodriguez and lack of a clear option for a fourth outfielder might prompt the Braves to do just that.

Of course, Phillips is only a stopgap. He would be that even if he weren't a free agent following the 2017 season. Ozzie Albies is on his way and while his numbers at Triple-A were underwhelming, it's important to remember that the biggest reason the Braves demoted him back to Mississippi was to get time at second with Dansby Swanson. In Albies' final 21 games at Triple-A, he hit .282/.367/.376. I wouldn't call that a guy needing a demotion to Double-A. Nevertheless, at just 20 years-old and one season above A-ball - plus an injury to end 2016 - the Braves would like to go slow with Albies. The 2017 roster looks like it could compete for a playoff slot, but avoiding arbitration for another year while letting Albies mature more could be the better play for the Braves.

When he's ready, though, Phillips could be repackaged. The Braves may hold on to him if they are in a playoff race, believing his veteran presence and decent bat off the bench could be useful. On the other hand, a good season for Phillips could mean that the Braves not only got the Reds to pay 93% of his salary, but they also potentially landed a better prospect in a trade than McKirahan or Portuondo - which isn't hard because neither are prospects. That, my friends, is why John Coppolella will be named Executive of the Year at some point.

There's really nothing to be upset about with this trade. The injury to Rodriguez created a need and while the two players aren't the same type of player, Phillips helps to fill that need while costing the Braves next to nothing in the process. In a few years, if a retrospective was done on this trade, the Braves either win this trade or at least don't lose it. That is the kind of deal you make every single time.

Braves Add Lefties Kirkman and Brothers

The Braves keep adding players to the mix as they look to add depth and this week added left-hand relievers Michael Kirkman and Rex Brothers. Will these two play a role for the 2017 Braves?

Let's start with Kirkman. Thirty years-old, Kirman was originally a fifth rounder by Texas all the way back in 2005. Five years later, Kirman made it to the majors with a reputation for mid-90's heater with sinking action and fairly good control. In the majors, the latter never really appeared.

A starter in the minors, Kirkman has been a reliever in each of the 96 games he's appeared in as a big leaguer. A 21% strikeout rate isn't great, but certainly not bad. However, you can't get by with a 11% walk rate in most cases. It's a big reason Kirkman has carried a 4.46 FIP throughout his career with a 4.53 xFIP. SIERA gives him a bit more love with a 3.94 mark.

Velocity-wise, Kirkman used to reach high-90's with his four-seamer, but in limited action over the last three years, I haven't seen him hum it in there at higher than 93 mph. He sits a tick or two below that on average. He started to use a sinker in 2014 at about 90 mph, but he'll go to his 83-84 slider more often. A typical slider, it bites into righties and away from lefties with little break. Because of this, he'll use the fastball/slider duo against lefties while mixing in his other pitches to try to keep righties off-balanced. This includes a mid-70's curveball and a mid-80's splitter. The splitter acts as almost a change-up to his fastball as it has a similar look to it, but only slower and with less break. His curveball is a tight spinner.

Kirkman spent last year mostly in the minors for Colorado Springs (MIL) and El Paso (SD). He was hit up pretty good in the PCL, though he, as usual, struck out his fair share of batters. He also appeared in one game each for the Padres and Brewers with zero success. Career-wise, he has carried reverse splits in the majors with lefties managing a .346 wOBA against him while righties check in at .316.

The #34th overall selection in 2009, Rex Brothers has had some success at the big-league level. A reliever-only option, Brothers reached the majors in 2011 for 48 games with the Rockies. Even as a rookie playing in Denver, Brothers more than held his own with a 2.88 ERA/2.88 FIP/2.65 xFIP complete with a 34% strikeout rate. He would not be nearly as dominant the next two seasons, but was still a good pitcher with a 3.32 FIP/3.46 xFIP profile. He was solid enough against righties to handle full innings, but owned lefties.

However, Brothers would struggle to find the strikezone in 2014 and continued poor efforts landed him in Triple-A the following year. The Rockies traded him to the Cubs after that, but after failing to impress there, he was released during the 2016 spring training.

So, what happened in 2014 to turn a formerly dominant reliever into Triple-A filler?

Well, velocity-wise, his average velocity fell from 96 mph in 2012 to 94.5 mph the following year. He lost another tick in 2014 and while his heater has stabilized from there, that's a drop of roughly 2.5 mph from 2012. The decreased speed has only made his fastball, which has always had movement, more difficult to control. Since Brothers works 2/3's of the time off his fastball, that's a big loss. His slider has also changed from more of a typical slider to having a bit of a hard curveball feel. Brothers also has a sinker and changeup, but rarely uses those.

Interestingly, his troubles also seemed to come from an effort to get more on-top with his pitches and throw more over-handed. Typically, that might help a pitcher find more depth with his pitches. In the case of Brothers, it seems like it has had the opposite fact while also robbing him of speed. That is just a guess, but that's what the numbers appear to be telling us. Let's take a look in video form at the differences between the Brothers of 2011 and 2014. I'm including a clip from his major league debut and a clip from his 2014 highlight, an "immaculate "inning" against the Giants. Pay special attention to the release point and delivery, especially how he drops the ball down as he begins his wind-up.




Perhaps Brothers is fixable? The Braves certainly want to give it a try. He did not receive an invitation to spring training, but we will still likely see him with the big league club especially for split-squad games. As a lottery ticket, you can do much worse.

Braves Bring Back the Meds

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

In 2013, the Atlanta Braves had finally come together. Frank Wren's team was young - Dan Uggla was its only starter over 30. Frank Wren's team was also very powerful and bashed 181 homers led the league. Sure, they struck out a lot, but they also scored runs in bunches.

But lost in all of the feast-or-famine articles about the Braves' offense was its fine pitching staff. While Brandon Beachy would miss most of the season, the Braves got breakout years from Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. Young Alex Wood also pitched in, which became important when Eric Young Jr. shattered Tim Hudson's ankle one night in Flushing.

The 2013 Braves also had a righty who had finally stayed healthy all year and earned an every-fifth-day assignment in the rotation in Kris Medlen. "Meds" had been lethal down the stretch in 2012 after finally receiving a late promotion to the rotation. The Santa Ana College alum followed it up with career highs in most categories in 2013.

But then, like Breachy, Medlen would not make it out of the 2014 spring training before needing a second Tommy John surgery. It was the first couple of dominoes to fall in what would be a franchise-altering season. Wren would be fired and a rebuild would be ordered - one that would not include Medlen, as he was non-tendered after the 2014 season.

There was some hope the Braves might bring him back, but two weeks after Atlanta cut him loose, the Kansas City Royals promised him $8.5 million to come to the midwest. His rehab took a long time, but Medlen finally returned to the majors on July 20, 2014. He had a few stinkers mixed in over a 15-game run with the Royals, but still pitched his way onto KC's postseason roster. He would pitch twice - once as a long reliever after Johnny Cueto got blasted and the other time in KC's World Series Game Three loss to the Mets.

The hope was that Medlen would stabilize a Royals' pitching staff in 2016 that would lose Cueto and was thin beyond newcomer Ian Kennedy, veteran Edinson Volquez, and young Yordano Ventura (may he rest in peace). Instead, Medlen would struggle over six starts - especially with uncharacteristic wildness. His shoulder was hurting, which put him on the shelf He made a pair of comeback attempts, but was never able to get back to the Royals. His final outing of the year included retiring just one of the five Oklahoma City Dodgers he faced before being lifted with a line of 0.1 ING, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER.

Let's try to compare the Medlen the Braves loved so dearly with the Medlen whose 2017 option was declined by the Royals. Pitch-wise, little has changed as far as usage and velocity go. He relies heavily on a low-90's sinker, throwing it 38% of the time last year. In fact, when you combine his four-seamer, about every other pitch on average is a fastball. He'll supplement that with a biting curveball that flutters to the plate at about 78 mph along with a changeup that has averaged 2-3 ticks faster since leaving Atlanta. He started to use a cutter toward the end of his Braves' stay and used it a lot more last year to mixed results.

One clear difference in Medlen since leaving Atlanta is related to release point, which the chart to the right shows courtesy of Brooks Baseball. In 2013, the ball was between roughly 5'9" and almost 6" feet off the ground when Medlen released the ball. Once he returned in 2015, he was releasing at more of a lower 3/4's rather than the high 3/4's of 2013. As a sinker-baller who depends on controlling the ball low-in-the-zone, not being able to get on top of his pitches won't help his effectiveness.

Medlen is a nice lottery ticket for the Braves to add - even as a relief option rather than a starter. If they can straighten his mechanics and get him to drop his changeup from the 84-85 mph range, it would be a big boost. Whether it was losing feel, the different arm slot, of Royals' coaching, Medlen lost his best pitch when he left Atlanta. In 2012, his changeup had a 16.6 wCH as far as pitch value goes. He didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title so he didn't make the lead leaders list, but that pitch value would have ranked second. The next year, his breakout starter campaign, his changeup had a 12.6 wCH pitch value. That ranked sixth. It was his one true dominant pitch and it's been worth -2.4 since. That has to change.

At his best, Medlen can fool hitters with his fastballs and changeups and go to his curveball for strike outs. We haven't seen that version of Medlen since 2013. If the Braves are lucky, we could see it again in 2017, though it won't be until midseason at the earliest. Until then, it's nice to hope.

Braves Add Walk-Off Walker

Last Saturday, I wrote a post here titled "Braves Go Older, Add Boyer and Suzuki." In it, I briefly went over how for a rebuilding team, the Braves are mighty old. I received three responses which may have all been from the same person as all were authored by "Anonymous" and I doubt it was the hacktivist group. Each reply went over the possible benefit of going younger with Adam Walker, an outfielder who had been recently DFA'd by the Orioles. I agreed he was worth a flyer. Turns out: I may have been talking to John Coppolella.

Probably not, but there's a chance because just a few days later, the Braves have added Walker off waivers. In a corresponding move, the Braves dumped Tuffy Gosewisch, who heads to the Mariners. There's not much to talk about with Gosewisch, who was picked up earlier this offseason off waivers from the D'Backs. He can't hit and had no chance of unseating the aforementioned Suzuki.

With that in mind, let's look at Walker, or as my Anonymous brother called him, Walk-Off Walker. By the way, I'm stealing that.

Walker is a Wisconsin native who was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft out of Jacksonville University. He quickly showed his power potential in 58 games with Elizabethton. With 14 bombs, he tied Patrick Leonard for the most homeruns in the Appalachian League that year. It was four more homers than teammate and future big prospect Max Kepler.

The 6'5" behemoth headed to the Midwest League and Cedar Rapids. He bashed 27 homers there. He knocked 25 more in the Florida State League in 2014 and then set a new personal high with 31 homeruns in the Southern League. It was 14 more homeruns than second place. Last year, Walker made it to the International League and smacked 27 more dingers, good for second in the league and 16 more than Matt Tuiasosopo, who led the Gwinnett Braves.

Despite 124 homeruns and a .235 career ISO, the Orioles decided to waive him. They weren't the first team this offseason to do that. The Brewers claimed him from the Twins in November before designating him for assignment ten days later. In a game where cheap power is hard to find, why would Walker be waived not once, but thrice in one winter?

Strikeouts. More specifically, a lot of them. His strikeout rates are the stuff of nightmares for hitting coaches. There are three seasons where he struck out at least 30% of the time with an absurd total of 38% last year - or 202 strikeouts in 531 PA. With shoddy plate discipline leading to low walk totals, Walker is an example of a True Two Outcomes hitter. Or, as Atlanta Braves fans referred to it a few years ago, all-or-nothing.

Comparables for Walker often include Rob Deer or Mark Reynolds. I'll throw a third name into the fray - Pedro Cerrano. Yes, the fictional Cuban defector from the Major League movies. This quote sums it up - "I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid." I don't know if Walker has already tried to offer Jobu some cigars and rum, but it's not the worst idea he could try. Walker simply can't put the wood on the ball enough. Watching him from the 2015, his swing looks a bit wonky at times.



It is okay to strike out a lot when you hit a lot of homers while also getting on base enough to supplement your game. This is where Walker struggles the most. He walked 9.1% of the time in 2015, a new high. Last year, it was 8.8%. In doing so, he did something that's never been done in the majors - strike out 200 times while walking less than 50. Only two players (Drew Stubbs and the aforementioned Reynolds) have ever struck out 200 times and walked less than 70 times.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Walker's defensive capability. He's decently athletic, but nothing about his defense stands out. Walker fits into the mold of "will make all the plays he can get to." He can challenge for double-digit steals, but gets caught too often to be considered much of a stolen base threat.

Kevin Seitzer and company have their work cut out for them. Their mission is to take a player with major league power and get him to make enough contact to make him a viable major league player. It's a worthwhile endeavor considering how legit Walker's power is.

Braves Add Xavier Avery, Not Nady

Keith Allison via Flickr (CC by 2.0)

True story. When I originally heard the Braves signed a new outfielder, my first thought was, "Xavier Nady is still around?"

But that was not to be as the Braves added local product Xavier Avery to a minor league pact. The left-hand hitting outfielder just turned 27 on New Year's Day and graduated from Cedar Grove High School (Ellenwood, GA) back in 2008. That was when the Orioles picked him in the second round. He quickly inked a contract with the O's to begin his career.

Not Nady's minor league career includes one year of double-digit homeruns, two years of 30+ doubles, five seasons of 30+ stolen bases, and a career-best .756 OPS in 2014 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In addition to his time with the O's, Avery has played for the Mariners and in one year, had runs with the Triple-A squads for the Tigers, Twins, and Giants. Last year, his ninth year in professional ball, was a homecoming of sorts as he returned to the Orioles' organization and hit .248/.332/.363 in the International League.

Avery's greatest asset is the ability to play a passable center field - though Clay Davenport's metrics paint the picture of someone better suited for left field. Regardless, it's not like the Braves don't need bodies for the outfield. With Connor Lien likely returning to Mississippi while Dustin Peterson climbs to Gwinnett, the rest of the Gwinnett outfield includes holdovers Ronnier Mustelier, Mel Rojas Jr., and Matt Tuiasosopo along with newcomer Lane Adams. Of course, there's also the possibility of Emilio Bonifacio. That doesn't include the chance that one of the previous names will make the final roster coming out of spring training as a 4th outfielder.

Avery is unlikely to be part of that mix, though he did have a 32-game run in the majors back in 2012. Nevertheless, you need bodies at Triple-A and Avery is that.

For all of the Braves' minor league free agent comings and goings, you can see this page.

Braves Go Older, Add Boyer and Suzuki

This tweet is pretty fair.

The Braves really confuse me, they haven't done anything that really undermines the rebuild, but damn that roster is old for a rebuilder.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 21, 2017

Yes, the roster continues to age as the Braves sign catcher Kurt Suzuki and right-handed reliever Blaine Boyer. The latter was announced a few days ago and is a minor league pact with a spring training invite. Suzuki's contract calls for a base salary of $1.5 million in 2017 with an additional $2.5 million to be earned through yet-to-be-named incentives.

Let's start with Suzuki because that's the bigger deal here - relatively speaking. After maturing in the uber-successful Cal-State Fullerton program, the native Hawaiian was a second-round pick by Oakland in 2004. Three years later, he was in the majors and had a pair of three-win seasons his first two full years with the A's. Since then, he's been in the 1-2 win area while often failing to reach 1 fWAR. In fact, since 2010, Suzuki has a triple slash of.248/.303/.360 with a .292 wOBA and 81 wRC+. Last year, his offensive numbers were pretty in line with that.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

So, we can hypothesize that Suzuki continues to receive 300+ PA because of his defense, right? Kind of. Of the 24 catchers who have caught at least 2000 innings over the last three years, Suzuki ranks 19th according to Fangraphs' Defensive Component. For reference, Tyler Flowers ranks 22nd and A.J. Pierzynski ranked 23rd. Susuzki's rSB, which seeks to rank a player by how well he controls the running game, is -14 over the last three years - the worst mark of the sample I just cited. On the plus size, he is tied for fourth in rGFP, a stat that is a good sign of athleticism behind home play (the top three are Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, and Welington Castillo). That suggests a catcher who is very capable of making the kind of play pictured to the right.

Pitch-framing wise, Suzuki's been below average in pitch framing since his rookie year according to Statcorner.com. Baseball Prospectus agrees - though has been a bit harsher than Statcorner. It should be said that Suzuki has been amazingly durable throughout his career.

So, if you are like me, you don't really understand this signing based on the information I have provided. On one side, I fully get the argument that Suzuki is likely a better choice than Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch, who were the current in-house options to play behind Flowers. That's a fair argument to make, too. Gosewisch has a career -0.8 fWAR because he can't hit while Recker's only had the briefest of success in the majors. And the Braves invested very little into Suzuki - who could turn into this year's Emilio Bonifacio. Signed to a similar deal last winter, Bonifacio was still cut with the Braves absorbing his salary at the end of spring training.

Personally, however, it does seem like an unnecessary addition. Suzuki might make the Braves better in 2017, but the difference between him and Recker is so minuscule that it's barely worth mentioning. Further, with Recker's recent success, you could argue that there is the slimmest chance he continues into 2017. The scene from Dumb and Dumber might be playing in your head - "so, you're saying there's a chance?" To be fair, it's not likely that Recker does that. Also in Suzuki's favor is that the team has another veteran capable of taking over full-time should Flowers falter into the mess that was the guy catching for the White Sox. Suzuki won't be much better than that version of Flowers, but is a stabilizing force.

That said, I would have preferred an open competition and a non-roster catcher or two with a chance to push Recker and Gosewisch.

Ken Lund (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

As for Boyer, you really ought to read Travis Sawchik's article at Fangraphs on Boyer. One of the true amazing things about Boyer is how through Statcast, we now are looking at him in a difference light. Boyer, who doesn't strikeout anyone, "allowed the lowest rate of barrels (1.0 percent), on the strength of an average 86.2 mph exit velocity that ranked 11th." What happens now is particularly interesting. How much control does a pitcher have on the quality of contact he allows and is it a skill or just luck based? Boyer might not get an opportunity to give us any sort of answer because he's not promised a spot. Again, this is a simple minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

With that in mind, Boyer is battling some pretty interesting arms for a spot on this year's roster. He'll need a strong spring training and for whatever it's worth, Boyer has had some ugly limited samples in three of the last four spring training's. You have to imagine that a veteran who relies so much on control and feel would be particularly vulnerable to his spring stats going haywire quickly. Either way, Boyer is unlikely to be a major part of the Braves' 2017 bullpen even after the trade of Shae Simmons.

Both moves are meh in nature. That is to say that neither move will push the needle very much, though the limited commitments won't hurt the Braves any either. That said, adding a 33 year-old catcher and a 35 year-old pitcher during a winter where Atlanta has already picked up a pair of plus-40 pitchers does back up Szymborski's tweet.

Braves Add Micah Johnson to the Mix

Keith Allison via Flickr CC 2.0

Last night, I read that Micah Johnson had been designated for assignment and immediately, my first thought was that he might make for a good target. Before I attempted to pen an article or send out a few tweets on the subject, I thought better of it. After all, is he that different from Jace Peterson?

Well, the Braves clearly liked him because today, they acquired the young speedster for either cash or a player to be named later. In addition, they agreed to arbitration with Arodys Vizcaino ($1.55M) and Ian Krol ($900K), which means the Braves will avoid an arbitration hearing.

So, who is Johnson? Born a week before Christmas in 1990, Johnson spent much of his life in Indiana. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson was selected in the ninth round in 2012 out of Indiana University-Bloomington and signed three days later. Quietly, he became a nifty prospect for the ChiSox with a big 2013 campaign that saw him play for three minor league squads and slash .312/.373/.451 with 24 doubles, 15 triples, 7 homers, and 84 steals. Those numbers were pretty legit as he played in the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues for the majority of the season, which hardly boost your offensive numbers.

After a short-lived run in the Arizona Fall League, Johnson was off to a great start in the Southern League in 2014 before a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte of the International League. His numbers took a bit of a dive there as his struggled to get on base once his average dipped below .280. Whatever power he has shown the previous year all but disappeared as well. Injuries also limited him to just 102 games on the year.

Whatever troubles he had in 2014, he put them behind him with a big spring to beat out Carlos Sanchez for the opening day second base job. While he would maintain a .270 batting average through the season's first 30 games, his issues at the plate continued to haunt him. He walked just five times compared to 17 strikeouts. With his OPS hovering in the .630's, Johnson was sent to the minors. Back in Charlotte, Johnson was able to right the ship with a .315/.375/.466 run with 8 homers and 28 steals. He was brought back in September, but couldn't find any holes and struck out in 13 of 31 PA.

Just a few months after believing Johnson could be the answer at second base, the White Sox included Johnson in a three-team deal with the Dodgers and Reds which sent Todd Frazier to Chicago, Jose Peraza to the Reds, and Johnson and two other prospects out west. Injuries got him to the majors for a second consecutive season, but Johnson spent nearly all of the season in Oklahoma City. The results weren't much to write home about despite the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League.

His .261/.321/.356 slash with 26 steals in 37 opportunities would eventually lead to being designated for assignment when Los Angeles needed a 40-man spot.

Johnson's minor league numbers are solid (.292/.357/.414), though his isolated slugging is all over the place. Some have suggested that his approach at the plate is inconsistent. When he's posted .137, .151, and higher isolated slugging marks, he does so in a way that might remind Braves fans of Marcus Giles. He loads his weight back, brings his front leg down, and torques his bottom half to maximize his power (first video to the right). That version of Johnson could bring some serious value to the table. At the same time, there is another Johnson who relies on bat control and a quick bat so that he can slap the ball (second video to the right). When watching video of the two swings, you might be convinced they are two different players.

Perhaps, White Sox coaches saw a fast player who should leg out grounders hit the other way and convinced him to cut down on his swing. Personally, I think that's a waste. While Johnson will never be a 20 HR/60 extra-base hit player, he has the potential to post double digit homerun seasons given the right amount of opportunities.

A left-handed hitter, Johnson does have traditional platoon splits with at least a 71-point difference in each season according to OPS in favor of facing right-handed pitchers. It's been especially pronounced the last two seasons.

Defensively, Johnson is a right-handed second baseman who has graded out average during his minor league career according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics. It's been a bit ugly in the majors, but that's likely sample-size hurting him. Regardless, despite impressive speed, it appears that Johnson is going to max out as merely average defensively. Last year, similar to their attempts to turn Peraza into an outfielder, the Dodgers utilized Johnson as an outfielder and even gave him a little time at third base. His numbers in the outfield appear decent, but there's not enough data.

Johnson just turned 26 so he won't be on my prospect list, but he's got an intriguing skill set - especially if he's loading up for power. Where does he fit on this Braves roster? Well, he's a better bench option that Emilio Bonifacio. If the Braves don't add a fourth outfielder, Johnson could be part of the hybrid bench with either Sean Rodriguez or the aforementioned Jace Peterson as guys who can play both the infield and outfield. Johnson would also fit a role I liked for Mallex Smith - speedster off the bench for late-inning replacements. On the other hand, a less-than-overwhelming spring could ticket Johnson for a return to Triple-A, which would exhaust his final option.

Either way, the Braves added a potential bench player with some upside for peanuts. We'll see how this one turns out, but the chances it hurts any is minimal.

Braves Trade Mallex, Get Stud Left-Hander

Twice this offseason, the Atlanta Braves have grouped major-league ready assets for higher-ceiling prospects. On Wednesday, they did it a third time as they acquired lefthanders Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows for right-handed reliever Shae Simmons and speedy outfielder Mallex Smith. The latter spent all of two minutes with the Mariners before being re-packaged in a deal to Tampa Bay. The two minutes might be a bit hyperbolic.

Much like the trades that saw the Braves acquire Luke and Alex Jackson (no relation), this trade is all about going for the elite prospect - in this case, Gohara. For years, the lefty made talent evaluators excited about his future, but the Brazillian southpaw struggled to find his way. While last year was his Age-19 season, it was his fourth year already in professional ball. It was also his best.

For the second consecutive season, he split time with Everett in the short-season A Northwest League and Clinton in the A-ball Midwest League - however, he flipped the script by spending the bulk of his time with Clinton after doing the opposite in 2015. The lefty set new highs in innings pitched (69.2) and strikeouts (81) while lowering his walk rate about 4%. His FIP in the 2.50's was nearly two runs lower than the previous year.

Gohara works off mid-90's heat and his secondary pitches took a step forward in 2016. His slider has strikeout potential at the major league level and his changeup could be good enough to keep hitters from being able to key into his fastball - which is not just fast, but comes with a good deal of movement. To this point, he has carried strong groundball numbers throughout the minors and in a superb pitching system, he won't get lost if he pitches up to his ability. In some ways, his acquisition reminds me of Ricardo Sanchez two years ago - except Gohara is more developed at the time of the deal.

Burrows essentially gives the Braves another 2016 draft choice. Picked #117 last year out of the University of Alabama where he is the career saves leader, Burrows spent his summer in Everett where he struck out 33.3% of opposing hitters. The walk rate will need to be cleaned up (10%), but all in all, it was a successful first year for the lefty complete with a 2.88 FIP.

A relief-only option, Burrows doesn't have big-time heat with low-to-mid 90's velocity, but gets great movement out of a 3/4's delivery which helps to create a natural sink to the pitch. The fact that he stands on the first-base side of the rubber also helps add sweeping motion. His second pitch, a low 80's slider, looked much better in his senior season, which helped to push him up the draft.

Make no mistake, though. This deal was about Gohara. It cost the Braves a pair of pieces that could have helped the 2017 team. Simmons came onto the scene in 2014 as a mid-90's pitcher with a solid breaking pitch. Immediately, he was compared to then-Braves closer Craig Kimbrel for his potential dominance on the mound. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, limited the righty to just seven games over the last two seasons. Expected to compete for a bullpen spot, Simmons still had a chance to put himself in line to be a closer one day with the Braves before this deal was completed. Nevertheless, the Braves have a large collection of potential bullpen arms, which I recently wrote about. Losing Simmons, while unfortunate, won't change that.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], 

On the other hand, losing Mallex Smith could hurt - in the short term. Depending on who you talked to or read, Smith had a chance to be a top-of-the-lineup center fielder with good on-base skills. Or, he could be a solid fourth outfielder. The Braves may have counted on the latter and that's a fair assumption. They also probably looked at a fairly undeniable aspect of roster construction - regardless of his talent, Smith was not a good fit for the Braves. While he could be a more valuable player than either Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis - especially if he moved Ender Inciarte to a corner - Smith was not right for Atlanta when you consider how little power the team would have with Inciarte and Ozzie Albies joining Smith in the everyday lineup presumably at some point. While I did like what Smith could provide in a fourth outfielder/defensive caddy/late inning substitution role, it would have muted his potential value simply because the nature of the roster was against him.

It's a bonus that the Braves acquired a player of Gohara's stature, though. Further, this trade opened up a pair of spots on the 40-man roster without losing talent for nothing. That gives Braves general manager John Coppolella increased flexibility to make a move both via trade and free agency, which has seen the market crash for several 2-to-5-win players. They might be willing to accept some bargain prices and not having to worry about the 40-man roster only makes that easier.

This trade is not too dissimilar from another trade from earlier this offseason. Like Smith, Tyrell Jenkins was a well-liked youngster who was one of the first building blocks for a rebuilding team two years ago. And then, without an inkling of a rumor, Jenkins was traded. Since then, we have seen Jenkins' believed value plummet. I don't see the same thing happening to Smith, but Jenkins' case might be a good reminder that our objectivity in regards to our favorite team's prospects is often skewed. Smith has a good chance to have a solid major league career, but was he going to be a difference maker? It's unlikely. The same can be said for Simmons. While Gohara is a lot further away than those two, the Braves continued to side with upside over depth. It's a big reason the front office has remade this farm system into a talent-rich cadre of players and Gohara - and Burrows - only enhances that.