-->
Showing posts with label 2016HotStove. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016HotStove. Show all posts

Monday, February 20, 2017

Should the Braves Bring Back Kelly Johnson and/or Jeff Francoeur?


By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
It seems inevitable.

Maybe it shouldn't, but it really does seem like only a matter of time.

It is so expected that should the Atlanta Braves sign either Kelly Johnson or Jeff Francoeur over the next few days, it would surprise no one. The Braves have proven that when it comes to depth, they like to go to players they are comfortable with. Both Johnson and Francoeur were brought back last year and given a chance to win a job on their bench, which both did. For Johnson, it was actually the second time he re-Braved. Eric O'Flaherty, Emilio Bonifacio, and Kris Medlen are a few other players brought back for this year's roster that could eventually play for Atlanta in 2017. With the bench wide-open, why not Johnson? Why not Francoeur? Why not both?

Let's see if either, or both, are good fits for the Braves in 2017.

As I previously went over in a spring training battles preview for the bullpen, the Braves appear convinced to give the eight-man bullpen experiment a shot. I don't like the idea for an NL team that must utilize its bench on a nightly basis. Last season, the Braves did not use their bench nine times and six came in AL parks. That leaves just three times when the Braves did not use their bench for a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive replacement when they didn't have the aid of the DH. It's a rarity that a manager won't have to go to the bench two-or-three times under traditional National League rules. Yet, the Braves want to limit the bench to four players, which includes a backup catcher that managers will be apprehensive about using in case a catcher is needed later in the game.

Where does that leave the bench? Well, right now, we have a good idea about half of it. Kurt Suzuki was given a one-year, $1.5 million contract last month to support Tyler Flowers. While Anthony Recker will be given a chance to unseat Suzuki, there is a high probability that short of an injury, Flowers will be in the starting lineup on opening day with Suzuki on the bench. The other fairly known player in the mix is Jace Peterson. After 214 starts at second base the last two years, plus 13 additional starts at third base, left field, and center field, Peterson looks destined for the utility bench role many felt he would be best suited for as a prospect. With Sean Rodriguez out for potentially the whole season, Peterson will be asked to do much of what they expected out of Rodriguez, minus the lefty-bashing bat, as the newly acquired Brandon Phillips takes over at second base.

Plenty of other names are in the mix, including the aforementioned Bonifacio, Micah Johnson, Chase D'Arnaud, and Rio Ruiz. Would adding Johnson or Francoeur be an improvement?

Let's look at what each player brings the Braves. Kelly Johnson's third go-around with the Braves was brief. He played in just 49 games with Atlanta before being traded for the second consecutive season to the Mets. All in all, it was a down year for Johnson after a bit of a surprise resurgence in 2015. That year, he hit .265/.314/.435 with most of his best work coming before his July trade to New York. Last year, his numbers fell across the board, though this time, his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets. Throughout his career, the left-hand hitting Johnson has shown little preference between left-handed and right-handed pitchers with a slight edge in favor of facing southpaws.

By Sgt. Anthony Hewitt [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Francoeur was included in a late season trade to the Marlins. After playing in 100 games for the first time in three years with the Phils in 2015, Francoeur joined the Braves last year - seven years after the disappointing end to his run with Atlanta that included epic highs and massive lows. Francoeur hit just .249/.290/.381 before his trade and hit better, though with no power, with the Marlins. On the season, he had a .254/.297/.378 slash. Where he did shine, somewhat, was against left-handed pitching. His OPS saw a 90-point improvement when he had the platoon advantage. That's pretty close to his career marks, though it should be said that his .253/.293/.402 lifetime slash against right-handers makes his value limited.

Beyond the differences at the plate, what truly separates these players is defensive flexibility. The only time Francoeur has ventured away from the outfield was for a two-inning stint on the mound in 2015 and a one-inning fill-in job with the Marlins on the season's final day - a game former Braves player Martin Prado managed. Meanwhile, Johnson has played six different positions, including each position on the infield and both corner outfield positions.

If the Braves were to sign one, the final position on the bench would also be directly impacted. If the Braves signed Francoeur, it would improve D'Arnaud's position as the Braves might be more apt to keep a player with a wealth of experience at shortstop. Signing Johnson may also force that, though Peterson was a shortstop until 2014 and Johnson has made cameos at shortstop with the Mets the last two years. Neither should get much time there, but their experience may be enough to prompt the Braves into rolling the dice and only bringing up a shortstop if Dansby Swanson were to miss time.

If it were me, I'd consider Johnson because he can provide more support at multiple positions. That said, having both Johnson and Peterson could be considered redundant, though Johnson's success against lefthanders helps to differentiate himself from Peterson. As for Francoeur, you might be able to argue that he would be a decent pickup if you felt he could play all three outfield spots and possibly first base. The last time he ventured into center field was 2014 for four innings in Triple-A and he's never played first base. His bat would have to be his saving grace and we are talking about a guy who has slashed .237/.279/.372 over his last 1561 PA (five years). Again, you might say "But we need a right-handed bat off the bench for late inning lefthanders." Here's where I say "don't confuse Francoeur with Matt Diaz." If you recall, Diaz was the definition of a platoon-hitting right-handed batter who bashed lefties. Remember that five year sample I referenced a couple of sentences back? Francoeur has slashed .240/.292/.363 against southpaws since 2012. That comes out to a 73 wRC+. While his career numbers, and especially last year, are more slanted to a guy who hits lefties noticeably better, he's still only an average bat career-wise against lefties (101 wRC+). Kelly Johnson carries a 103 wRC+ against lefties and is not inept against righties (101 wRC+).

With that in mind, if I'm the Braves, I'm definitely trying to bring back Johnson. And bonus, you can trade him to the Mets again. Win-win.

What say you? Johnson? Francoeur? Both? Neither?

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Braves Acquire Brandon Phillips for Practically Nothing

By Rdikeman (Own work) [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons
The Cincinnati Reds spent the offseason trying to find a new home for Brandon Phillips. They nearly sent him to Atlanta in January, but Phillips balked at the deal. He wanted further assurances that his no-trade protection would be respected even as a trade would typically negate any 10/5 conditions - or 10 years in the majors, 5 years with the same team.

In the end, the Braves and Phillips came to an agreement with the Braves honored a limited no-trade clause that blocks trades to a dozen teams that was already part of the deal. Those dozen teams are unknown to this point, but most of the time, each year, a list is filed of teams the player would not accept a trade to. One can assume the list includes teams with the least chance to be successful in 2017, though cities Phillips is not fond of may also be included. Further, the Braves agreed to pay Phillips a bonus of $500,000 in the event that he's traded.

The money part of this deal is very fascinating. Shortly after the 2012 season began, Phillips agreed on a six-year, $72.5M contract extension with the Reds that went into effect that year. After making $12.5M in the first year of the deal, he went down to $10M the following year and with each subsequent season, his salary went up $1M. This year, the final season of that deal, is worth $14M. There are also other conditions like award bonuses ($75K for All-Star selection) and some deferred money (unsure about the specifics there). What is most interesting about this deal is that the Braves are on the hook for just $1M for the 2017 season with the Reds covering the rest of the money.

The Braves completed this deal without having to surrender a prospect. Lefty Andrew McKirahan and righty Carlos Portuondo will head to the Reds in the deal. McKirahan is the more interesting name of the two because he pitched in 27 games for the Braves two years ago. A former Cubs farmhand, McKirahan was a 2015 Rule 5 pick by the Marlins. At the time, he was coming off his Age-24 season split between High-A ball and Double-A where he had a 2.08 ERA and a 4 K/BB rate.

After failing to make the Marlins, McKirahan was waived and picked up by the Braves. His time with the Braves was interrupted after three games because of a PED suspension. Once able to return in late July, McKirahan was a regular member of Fredi Gonzalez's bullpen. His final 19 games were especially ugly, though. In 18 innings, he gave up 16 runs while striking out 14. Last spring, he was expected to compete for a bullpen spot, but a recommendation of a second Tommy John surgery ended his bid. He was not expected to compete for a bullpen spot this spring.

Portuondo, who spent eight years in Cuba's top baseball league, lasted just one year in the Braves' system after Atlanta gave the defector $900K nearly a year ago. A fastball/slider pitcher with decent movement on his low 90's heater, Portuondo spent last year with Carolina and Gwinnett. His numbers were pedestrian with some poor control, especially for a 28-year-old.

To sum up, the Braves surrendered two minor league bullpen depth arms and absorbed a million dollars for a three-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner, and one-time Silver Slugger. Of course, to be fair, Brandon Phillips is not that guy anymore. His game took a step backward after 2011. Since then, his wOBA has been between .300 and .325 with a five-year average of .313. His wRC+ has been anywhere between 88 and 101 with a 94 average. After a number of years as one of the top ten or so second baseman in the game, he's a borderline Top 20 second baseman now.

Projections for Phillips - take them with a grain of salt because they include the Reds park - obviously did not expect much of an improvement for a guy entering his Age-36 season. PECOTA projected .269/.306/.390 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 0.7 WARP. Steamer expected similar results. That said, if Phillips's bat ultimately performs closer to the last two seasons rather than the two projections I mentioned, the Braves are getting a guy who hit .293/.324/.405 over his last 1200 or so PA with a .315 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Not a great improvement, mind you, but a more valuable player than the PECOTA/Steamer version.

While we are on the subject of value, we cannot ignore that Phillips' declining value hasn't been solely a result of his bat. His UZR/150 was between 8.1 and 12.3 for five years before 2015. That season, it fell to 2.1. Last season, it was -2.3. Strong DRS and rPM numbers both cratered last year. Defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable for just one season, but it seems clear that Phillips has lost a step and his instincts aren't nearly as quick. He turns 36 in June so that shouldn't be surprising. How far his defense deteriorates, however, could be something to watch. If he's at least average, the Braves will be happy.

By SD Dirk [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Where does Phillips fit in? Well, the Braves clearly felt pressure to make a move in response to Sean Rodriguez's car accident. A lot is still unknown about just how severe Rodriguez's shoulder surgery was as I've heard between 3-6 months of recuperation time as a possible time table.On the other hand, David O'Brien tweeted that "most if not all" of the 2017 season could be lost for Rodriguez. Expected to platoon with Jace Peterson at second, Rodriguez was a solid addition for the Braves this offseason before the injury. Here's the bad news - Phillips is not a better platoon option. He has carried a reverse split the last three years of .286 wOBA/76 wRC+ against lefties and .319 wOBA/98 wRC+ against righties. Peterson showed potential platoon ability by putting up a .326 wOBA and 101 wRC+ last year against righties. Relegating Peterson to just backup duty would appear short-sighted, though the injury to Rodriguez and lack of a clear option for a fourth outfielder might prompt the Braves to do just that.

Of course, Phillips is only a stopgap. He would be that even if he weren't a free agent following the 2017 season. Ozzie Albies is on his way and while his numbers at Triple-A were underwhelming, it's important to remember that the biggest reason the Braves demoted him back to Mississippi was to get time at second with Dansby Swanson. In Albies' final 21 games at Triple-A, he hit .282/.367/.376. I wouldn't call that a guy needing a demotion to Double-A. Nevertheless, at just 20 years-old and one season above A-ball - plus an injury to end 2016 - the Braves would like to go slow with Albies. The 2017 roster looks like it could compete for a playoff slot, but avoiding arbitration for another year while letting Albies mature more could be the better play for the Braves.

When he's ready, though, Phillips could be repackaged. The Braves may hold on to him if they are in a playoff race, believing his veteran presence and decent bat off the bench could be useful. On the other hand, a good season for Phillips could mean that the Braves not only got the Reds to pay 93% of his salary, but they also potentially landed a better prospect in a trade than McKirahan or Portuondo - which isn't hard because neither are prospects. That, my friends, is why John Coppolella will be named Executive of the Year at some point.

There's really nothing to be upset about with this trade. The injury to Rodriguez created a need and while the two players aren't the same type of player, Phillips helps to fill that need while costing the Braves next to nothing in the process. In a few years, if a retrospective was done on this trade, the Braves either win this trade or at least don't lose it. That is the kind of deal you make every single time.

Monday, February 6, 2017

Send Me An Angel

By Eltiempo10 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons
Was that title enough of an earworm or is it too obscure? If so, I'm perhaps older than I thought.

The Atlanta Braves have more depth heading into 2017 than they did in either of the last two seasons, but the bench still needs work. The addition of Sean Rodriguez definitely helps as it likely means either Rodriguez or Jace Peterson will be on the bench on most days and both are borderline major league starters. But outside of either one of those players, what will this bench look like?

Chase D'Arnaud will be around, but do the Braves really want to depend too much on a player with a sub-.600 OPS in the majors? Kurt Suzuki will take up a spot as well, though he's hardly much of a threat with the bat. With that in mind, the Braves could use some extra offense. Depending on whether they go with an eight-man bullpen or not - and I hope the latter - the Braves still head into spring training with at least a spot open for grabs and as many as three.

A potential platoon of Rio Ruiz/Adonis Garcia could man one of those spots, though their lack of versatility could make that option a little less desirable for the Braves especially if they are going with a four-man bench. Atlanta has also apparently flirted with the idea of bringing back Jeff Francoeur and/or Kelly Johnson, but even if they did that, there are still questions about this bench that need to be addressed. Of the players I've already mentioned, only D'Arnaud has played a passable shortstop in the majors, which only helps his case and hurts the offensive potential of this bench. Furthermore, who is second on the depth chart to play center field?

Right now, probably Rodriguez. And why not? He's played nearly 60 innings in center during his career. Clearly, he can handle the position for a few days, right? And if not, there's always Peterson. He slammed into a wall last year after all. That's about all I have to say about that.

Listen, I love Ender Inciarte, but he's hit the DL in each of the last three years. That's too short of a sample size to say he's likely to do it again in 2017, but the trends certainly aren't in his favor. If such an event happens - and hopefully it's only for a couple of weeks if it does - who plays center field? Would you believe the choice might be Emilio Bonifacio or Mel Rojas Jr.? Not excited about that? Well, there's also Xavier Avery. Who? I'll give you a minute or two to read this quick introduction I wrote on Avery a few weeks ago when the Braves added him. I'll wait.

Done? Maybe Rojas or Avery satisfies you as a deep depth option. Maybe Bonifacio isn't that bad (he is). Maybe you think Inciarte will stay healthy all season. But, if you're like me, you'd like a bit more depth. The kind of depth the Braves had before they traded away Mallex Smith.

Back to the title of this post. Real Life's "Send Me An Angel" was a fun 80's hit about asking the heavens for love.  In this case, all I want is a fourth outfielder. Regardless, John Coppolella, send me an Angel............Pagan. Also, if that's not his walk-up music, someone really failed at their job.

Angel Pagan won't make the Braves winners in 2017, but he will make them a little better. Since his last big season in 2012, he's been between a 1.4 and 2.1 fWAR player in three of the last four years. To put that into context, in the last four seasons, Nick Markakis has been worth 4.9 fWAR and Matt Kemp has been worth 2.1 fWAR. Same time frame, Pagan has been a 4.5 fWAR player. By the way, he'll be paid a fraction of the cost as those other two.

To be fair, injuries have sapped Pagan of much of his speed that made him a yearly 30-steal threat. With that said, he still swiped 15 bases last year, one fewer than Inciarte and Smith, who led the Braves. Pagan's also been much healthier of late, having posted back-to-back 500+ PA campaigns after failing to do so in the two seasons prior. Pagan also has been successful throughout his career with the bat compared to his center field peers. He finished last year with a .324 wOBA (vs. .322 career) and 105 wRC+ (vs. 103 career). Though 35 years-old, nothing in his numbers would seem to make one believe that a decline was imminent.

I should also mention that as a switch-hitter, Pagan is a perfect fourth outfielder. He gives his manager flexibility to try to schedule off days for Markakis and Inciarte against tougher left-handers and give Kemp a day off against a nasty righty.

To be fair a second time, Pagan's defense in center field has deteriorated along with his speed. Outside of 2011, the defensive metrics have never loved Pagan's D to begin with and it's only gotten worse. If the Braves need him to play much longer than a few weeks in center field, they are probably asking for too much. Pagan played a lot of left field last year and the metrics agreed that it was a good move for him. That would give the Braves a late-inning defensive caddy for Kemp who won't be completely inept with the bat should he need to hit.

Pagan could be an outstanding addition for the Braves if the money is good and presumably, at this point, it seems unlikely he'll demand more than an incentive-rich one-year deal with a low base salary. So, I ask you again, John Coppolella. Send not only me, but the Braves an Angel. It's just too good of a fit.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Braves Add Lefties Kirkman and Brothers

The Braves keep adding players to the mix as they look to add depth and this week added left-hand relievers Michael Kirkman and Rex Brothers. Will these two play a role for the 2017 Braves?

Let's start with Kirkman. Thirty years-old, Kirman was originally a fifth rounder by Texas all the way back in 2005. Five years later, Kirman made it to the majors with a reputation for mid-90's heater with sinking action and fairly good control. In the majors, the latter never really appeared.

A starter in the minors, Kirkman has been a reliever in each of the 96 games he's appeared in as a big leaguer. A 21% strikeout rate isn't great, but certainly not bad. However, you can't get by with a 11% walk rate in most cases. It's a big reason Kirkman has carried a 4.46 FIP throughout his career with a 4.53 xFIP. SIERA gives him a bit more love with a 3.94 mark.

Velocity-wise, Kirkman used to reach high-90's with his four-seamer, but in limited action over the last three years, I haven't seen him hum it in there at higher than 93 mph. He sits a tick or two below that on average. He started to use a sinker in 2014 at about 90 mph, but he'll go to his 83-84 slider more often. A typical slider, it bites into righties and away from lefties with little break. Because of this, he'll use the fastball/slider duo against lefties while mixing in his other pitches to try to keep righties off-balanced. This includes a mid-70's curveball and a mid-80's splitter. The splitter acts as almost a change-up to his fastball as it has a similar look to it, but only slower and with less break. His curveball is a tight spinner.

Kirkman spent last year mostly in the minors for Colorado Springs (MIL) and El Paso (SD). He was hit up pretty good in the PCL, though he, as usual, struck out his fair share of batters. He also appeared in one game each for the Padres and Brewers with zero success. Career-wise, he has carried reverse splits in the majors with lefties managing a .346 wOBA against him while righties check in at .316.

The #34th overall selection in 2009, Rex Brothers has had some success at the big-league level. A reliever-only option, Brothers reached the majors in 2011 for 48 games with the Rockies. Even as a rookie playing in Denver, Brothers more than held his own with a 2.88 ERA/2.88 FIP/2.65 xFIP complete with a 34% strikeout rate. He would not be nearly as dominant the next two seasons, but was still a good pitcher with a 3.32 FIP/3.46 xFIP profile. He was solid enough against righties to handle full innings, but owned lefties.

However, Brothers would struggle to find the strikezone in 2014 and continued poor efforts landed him in Triple-A the following year. The Rockies traded him to the Cubs after that, but after failing to impress there, he was released during the 2016 spring training.

So, what happened in 2014 to turn a formerly dominant reliever into Triple-A filler?

Well, velocity-wise, his average velocity fell from 96 mph in 2012 to 94.5 mph the following year. He lost another tick in 2014 and while his heater has stabilized from there, that's a drop of roughly 2.5 mph from 2012. The decreased speed has only made his fastball, which has always had movement, more difficult to control. Since Brothers works 2/3's of the time off his fastball, that's a big loss. His slider has also changed from more of a typical slider to having a bit of a hard curveball feel. Brothers also has a sinker and changeup, but rarely uses those.

Interestingly, his troubles also seemed to come from an effort to get more on-top with his pitches and throw more over-handed. Typically, that might help a pitcher find more depth with his pitches. In the case of Brothers, it seems like it has had the opposite fact while also robbing him of speed. That is just a guess, but that's what the numbers appear to be telling us. Let's take a look in video form at the differences between the Brothers of 2011 and 2014. I'm including a clip from his major league debut and a clip from his 2014 highlight, an "immaculate "inning" against the Giants. Pay special attention to the release point and delivery, especially how he drops the ball down as he begins his wind-up.




Perhaps Brothers is fixable? The Braves certainly want to give it a try. He did not receive an invitation to spring training, but we will still likely see him with the big league club especially for split-squad games. As a lottery ticket, you can do much worse.

Friday, January 13, 2017

Braves Add Micah Johnson to the Mix

Keith Allison via Flickr CC 2.0
Last night, I read that Micah Johnson had been designated for assignment and immediately, my first thought was that he might make for a good target. Before I attempted to pen an article or send out a few tweets on the subject, I thought better of it. After all, is he that different from Jace Peterson?

Well, the Braves clearly liked him because today, they acquired the young speedster for either cash or a player to be named later. In addition, they agreed to arbitration with Arodys Vizcaino ($1.55M) and Ian Krol ($900K), which means the Braves will avoid an arbitration hearing.

So, who is Johnson? Born a week before Christmas in 1990, Johnson spent much of his life in Indiana. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson was selected in the ninth round in 2012 out of Indiana University-Bloomington and signed three days later. Quietly, he became a nifty prospect for the ChiSox with a big 2013 campaign that saw him play for three minor league squads and slash .312/.373/.451 with 24 doubles, 15 triples, 7 homers, and 84 steals. Those numbers were pretty legit as he played in the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues for the majority of the season, which hardly boost your offensive numbers.

After a short-lived run in the Arizona Fall League, Johnson was off to a great start in the Southern League in 2014 before a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte of the International League. His numbers took a bit of a dive there as his struggled to get on base once his average dipped below .280. Whatever power he has shown the previous year all but disappeared as well. Injuries also limited him to just 102 games on the year.

Whatever troubles he had in 2014, he put them behind him with a big spring to beat out Carlos Sanchez for the opening day second base job. While he would maintain a .270 batting average through the season's first 30 games, his issues at the plate continued to haunt him. He walked just five times compared to 17 strikeouts. With his OPS hovering in the .630's, Johnson was sent to the minors. Back in Charlotte, Johnson was able to right the ship with a .315/.375/.466 run with 8 homers and 28 steals. He was brought back in September, but couldn't find any holes and struck out in 13 of 31 PA.

Just a few months after believing Johnson could be the answer at second base, the White Sox included Johnson in a three-team deal with the Dodgers and Reds which sent Todd Frazier to Chicago, Jose Peraza to the Reds, and Johnson and two other prospects out west. Injuries got him to the majors for a second consecutive season, but Johnson spent nearly all of the season in Oklahoma City. The results weren't much to write home about despite the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League.

His .261/.321/.356 slash with 26 steals in 37 opportunities would eventually lead to being designated for assignment when Los Angeles needed a 40-man spot.

Johnson's minor league numbers are solid (.292/.357/.414), though his isolated slugging is all over the place. Some have suggested that his approach at the plate is inconsistent. When he's posted .137, .151, and higher isolated slugging marks, he does so in a way that might remind Braves fans of Marcus Giles. He loads his weight back, brings his front leg down, and torques his bottom half to maximize his power (first video to the right). That version of Johnson could bring some serious value to the table. At the same time, there is another Johnson who relies on bat control and a quick bat so that he can slap the ball (second video to the right). When watching video of the two swings, you might be convinced they are two different players.

Perhaps, White Sox coaches saw a fast player who should leg out grounders hit the other way and convinced him to cut down on his swing. Personally, I think that's a waste. While Johnson will never be a 20 HR/60 extra-base hit player, he has the potential to post double digit homerun seasons given the right amount of opportunities.

A left-handed hitter, Johnson does have traditional platoon splits with at least a 71-point difference in each season according to OPS in favor of facing right-handed pitchers. It's been especially pronounced the last two seasons.

Defensively, Johnson is a right-handed second baseman who has graded out average during his minor league career according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics. It's been a bit ugly in the majors, but that's likely sample-size hurting him. Regardless, despite impressive speed, it appears that Johnson is going to max out as merely average defensively. Last year, similar to their attempts to turn Peraza into an outfielder, the Dodgers utilized Johnson as an outfielder and even gave him a little time at third base. His numbers in the outfield appear decent, but there's not enough data.

Johnson just turned 26 so he won't be on my prospect list, but he's got an intriguing skill set - especially if he's loading up for power. Where does he fit on this Braves roster? Well, he's a better bench option that Emilio Bonifacio. If the Braves don't add a fourth outfielder, Johnson could be part of the hybrid bench with either Sean Rodriguez or the aforementioned Jace Peterson as guys who can play both the infield and outfield. Johnson would also fit a role I liked for Mallex Smith - speedster off the bench for late-inning replacements. On the other hand, a less-than-overwhelming spring could ticket Johnson for a return to Triple-A, which would exhaust his final option.

Either way, the Braves added a potential bench player with some upside for peanuts. We'll see how this one turns out, but the chances it hurts any is minimal.

Friday, January 6, 2017

5-pack of Minor League Signings

With things simmering down as far as player acquisitions go, it is probably a good time to finish off the remaining reviews for minor league free agents that have been added to the Braves this offseason. This is the fourth edition of these reviews and each of those links can be found at the bottom of this article.

As always, you can see an updated list of comings-and-goings for minor league free agents.

Alay Lago, IF, 25 years-old

Born in Cuba, Lago didn't play much from 2010-2014 as a member of four teams in Cuba's premier league. A middle infielder, he defected from the island after 2014, but didn't warrant a lot of attention from major league organizations after performing in player showcases for scouts. Last February, he signed with Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz out of the Mexican League as he sought to build more interest.

A regular at third base, Lago struggled to reach base (.282) and was charged with 8 errors at third base before his season ended in May with a suspension for stanozolol and metabolites. There's not a lot of available information about Lago and what exists for the right-handed hitter hasn't been impressive to this point. If he breaks camp with a team, I have to imagine he'll be in Florida with the new Fire Frogs. That said, this was a curious signing. As is the case with two more free agent signings in this recap, sometimes the results won't be all that important if the right scout or person is vouches for you. I have to assume that's what happened with Lago.

Navery Moore, RHP, 26 years-old

This was one of the most interesting low-key signings of the entire offseason for me if only because the Braves brought back a former intriguing arm. Moore had a mid-90's fastball in high school, but his arm went kaput and the Vanderbilt commit would go under the knife. His arm was still so good that the Red Sox used a 26th rounder on him in 2008, but he went to Vandy and eventually became their closer. Three years later, the Braves picked him in the 14th round. A late signee, Moore would not pitch until that year's Arizona Fall League.

In 2012, Moore made his full-season debut and over the next two years, the righty worked as a starter as the Braves tried to get him to develop his secondary pitches. After being shutdown for most of the summer in 2013, Moore got one more shot to impress and for the third consecutive year, couldn't climb out of A-ball. The Braves released him after the year and over the next two seasons, he pitched in independent baseball for Joliet and Southern Maryland. Now 26, Moore will get a second chance to impress the Braves, who must have seen something they liked to try again with the flamethrower.

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, 32 years-old

It seems like ages ago that O'Flaherty was part of the Holy Trinity of Braves relievers. Between 2009-13, O'Flaherty had a 3.16 FIP and 1.99 ERA over 295 games. Since then, though, he pitched for two other squads, failed to make the Pirates team coming out of spring training last year, and came back to Atlanta where he significantly underwhelmed. In addition to his struggles on the field, he spent time on the DL with a knee injury and a balky left elbow. When the latter happened, we found out he had been trying to pitch through some known issues.

Here's the good news, if there is any. If the southpaw is over those issues, we'll know pretty quick by watching his fastball. Last year, his sinker failed to drop at least nine inches in horizontal movement for the first time since '09. His four-seamer saw an even more drastic fall - in that it didn't fall much, but straighten. A groundball pitcher, O'Flaherty lives off getting hitters to swing over his pitch and smash it into the ground. At his beast, he was getting 2.5 to nearly 4 groundballs to every flyball. Last year, that was down to 1.9 and that doesn't tell the whole story, either. When O'Flaherty was right, hitters were so fooled at the plate or tried to elevate the ball so much that they popped the ball up a bunch. Between 2010-13, O'Flaherty had an infield pop-up rate of 11.5%, comparable at the time to teammate Craig Kimbrel. During the same time period, among relievers with 170 innings thrown, only Mariano Rivera had a higher rate of softly hit batted balls.

But this is 2017, you say. You're right. I'm putting on my Holy Optimism, Batman! hat here and looking at the positives. Maybe O'Flaherty is a 4.18 SIERA guy now rather than a sub-3.00 SIERA guy he was at times during his first run with the Braves. However, the Braves are better able to deal with that if it unfortunately is the truth. Last year, the Braves needed O'Flaherty because their options were pretty slim. Now, with Paco Rodriguez potentially joining Ian Krol, the Braves are in a better position to just move on if O'Flaherty once again struggles. Here's hoping his performance makes the Braves have to make a pretty hard decision.

David Richardson, RHP, 26 years-old

Drafted out of Hillsborough Community College in Tampa, Florida all the way back in 2010, last season was a year of firsts for Richardson. It was the first year he ever threw more than 61.1 innings in a single season and it was also the first time he reached Double-A. And that's pretty much all there is to say about last season for Richardson.

Once a highly thought-of outfielder, Richardson has done nothing but pitch for the Orioles. Information on him is pretty minimal, which is kind of expected from a guy who has never been much of a prospect and mostly logged time in the lower minor leagues as a reliever. His strikeout rate has been decent, though unspectacular, while his FIP has been in the 3.50-3.75 range most years. Richardson is the type of pitcher who likely caught a scout's eye, though without a strong spring, he might be cut before appearing in his first official game with the system.

By KamenG [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Jordan Walden, RHP, 29 years-old

Old Hoppy is back in the fold and it's time to remember just how dominant Walden was before injuries derailed him. Over 243 career games, Walden has a 10.8 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 along with a 2.76 FIP/3.27 xFIP/2.92 SIERA. Basically, he has been really good when he's been able to stay on the mound - something he was not able to do with the Cardinals. He missed most of 2015 with shoulder issues and never threw a meaningful pitch in 2016 due to recurring shoulder problems and a grade 2 lat strain. Will he be healthy? Well, there is a reason why he came dirt cheap. Until we see him pitch regularly, we can't know if he is healthy and/or can stay that way.

Walden was a perfect, sound pick-up by the Braves. Obviously, they invested precious little to find out if Walden is close to being back. If the answer is yes, they have a cheap high-leverage arm who posted a 2.80 FIP as a Brave. Such a finding could make the Braves better able to compete for a playoff spot or repackage Walden for a future asset at the deadline. Smart teams make smart signings and there is no doubt that throwing some peanuts at Walden is a really smart signing.

That finishes off the minor league signings recap. If the Braves add more free agents on minor league deals, I'll likely recap them individually.

For more minor league free agent recaps, click below.
November 27, December 4, December 19, December 31, or check here for the complete rundown.

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Will January Bring a Big Piece for the Braves?

K. Johnson, Spring 2016 By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
January is typically a time where baseball teams are thinking depth. Last January, Atlanta signed Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, Alexi Ogando, and Kelly Johnson in January. The year before, they traded for Manny Banuelos, Ricardo Sanchez, and signed Kelly Johnson. I'm just saying there is a theme and it includes signing Kelly Johnson. Who is currently a free agent. Again, I'm just saying.

Moving along, January of 2015 also had a big move - the Mike Foltynewicz/Rio Ruiz for Evan Gattis trade. Such a big deal relatively late in the process made me wonder - how rare is it to have a potentially franchise-altering move in January?

Well, two years before the Gattis move, the Braves put the finishing touches on the seven-player mega deal that brought Justin Upton to the Braves in January of 2013. In 2009, the Braves signed both Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami to large free agent failures contracts in the first month of the new year. And in 2007, Atlanta traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez. Finally, January of 2002 was a big one and not just because the Braves traded for Kevin Gryboski. Three days before that, they acquired Gary Sheffield.

Most of the time, however, January is a month for finishing touches to the roster. It's a month where you sign George Sherrill to shore up your bullpen or add a stopgap first baseman like Robert Fick or Troy Glaus. When the aforementioned franchise-altering move does happen, it generally is a result of a long negotiation that finally ended in January.

Will this be a quiet January or a surprising one with a big free agent signing or trade acquisition? I must lean toward the former. While a formal budget is not public, Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates that the Braves have committed $110M toward this year's roster. After you add in non-arbitration players, you are looking at around $120 million in payroll. That would be a significant climb over last year's opening day roster ($87M according to Cot's) and around $8 million more than their previous opening day high set in 2014.

Of course, the new ballpark plays a big role here. In 2010, the aptly named newballpark.org found that a new stadium gives a team, on average, the ability to increase payroll by 14% hike. The Braves will blow past that finding if they open the year with a $120 million opening day roster. That would come out to about a 38% increase in payroll from 2016 (according to Cot's). Of course, many have made the convincing argument that the opening day roster in 2016 was intentionally low to spend more richly on amateurs via the draft ($15M or so) and international market (another $15M or so).

Also likely to keep the Braves from spending richly this January is the fact that it's tough to find room for added talent. In mid-December, after the winter meetings concluded, I previewed the 25-man roster. What became very clear was how packed this roster is with options at nearly every position. Aside from catcher, where there is a clear battle between two players to become next year's backup, it's tough to find a potential roster battle where they isn't already five or more players competing for a spot. To add more talent to the mix would only make it even more difficult for the team to award a player with a spot on the roster following a big spring.

Further, considering the hefty prices teams have paid this offseason in trades and for free agents, should the Braves be targeting a big addition anyway?

Nevertheless, here I am - looking at Matt Wieters again. It's been a long offseason for the former Orioles backstop. Baltimore not only passed on giving Wieters a qualifying offer for a second consecutive year, they decided to move on. The Minnesota Twins opted for Jason Castro for $24.5 million rather than show interest in Wieters. Wilson Ramos received a make-good $12.5 million contract. The Nationals traded for Derek Norris.

Other teams seem like potential fits for the catcher, including the Rockies and Diamondbacks, but the one team that has seemed like the logical spot for Wieters during the whole process has been Atlanta. As an up-and-coming team with a less-than-ideal catching situation, the Braves seem like the perfect squad to buy a Wieters lottery ticket.

Of course, much of that is due to Wieters being a southeast guy. He was born in South Carolina and became a star at Georgia Tech. So, theoretically, that makes him destined to play for the Braves at some point. Could that some point be in 2017? It's certainly possible, but realistically, a lot will have to happen to get to that point.

The Braves will essentially need a major bargain with a short-term commitment, possibly just one year. Put yourself in Wieters' shoes for a second. Ignoring everything about how you think Atlanta might finish in 2017, there is a one major problem that might make you shy away from playing in Atlanta. This season will be the first year of SunTrust Park. While there are many theories about how the park will play for hitters, do we really know? Even with the geographic advantages of playing closer to his childhood home and his old college stomping grounds, the thought of an unknown variable like how SunTrust will play has to weigh on Wieters' mind.

In addition, the Braves will have to look at the cons that come with Wieters. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Wieters has slashed .253/.309/.414 with a .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. This is particularly troublesome when you consider his defense - once a calling card - has eroded considerably.

Wieters was once one of the top figures in rSB, or Stolen Base Runs Above Average. That's a long-winded way of saying that rSB looks at how successful the catcher was, compared to the average, at preventing stolen bases. Tyler Flowers was a -7 last year. Wieters was a 0 - or straight up average. That's exactly where he was in 2015 when he came back from injury. To be fair, his numbers started to fall in 2013 and cratered in 2014 before he went under the knife. In terms of DRS, we see a similar fall from grace. Between 2010-12, Weiters had 40 DRS. Since? -8.

And then, there is pitch framing. Since 2012, Wieters has finished below average in each year. Last year, among catchers who received at least 3000 pitches, Wieters finished 38th - right behind A.J. Pierzynski. Teams have gotten the memo over the last few years and now believe that catching defense and pitch framing metrics have a lot of value. Castro didn't get $25 million because of his bat after all.

Despite all of his cons, could the Braves and Wieters match up and could Atlanta go for the rare big January deal? Certainly, but Wieters (and his super agent Scott Boras) will have to accept that the team will be getting what they want more so than the player. He's going to have to take a considerable pay cut to come to Atlanta. When I say considerable, I do mean considerable. Wieters played for nearly $16 million last year. He'll likely have to accept about half of that. Meanwhile, Wieters will have to know that the Braves already have a catcher they like in Flowers and were only signing Wieters because he fell into their lap at the last second. That means the Braves will likely give Flowers a good deal of playing time and with the latter's defensive metrics, the time share may resemble a platoon.

So why sign Wieters at all, you might ask? Because there is a chance in the right situation that his bat plays up once again. While Wieters never reached the hype he had when he reached the majors, he still slashed .265/.319/.420 his first 657 games in the majors - a good slash for any catcher. That includes a .322 wOBA and 97 wRC+. In 514 career games, Flowers has a .232/.302/.384 triple slash with a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Of course, since 2013, Flowers has been better than Wieters at the plate, but the latter still has some promise.

In the end, a love connection between the Braves and Wieters doesn't seem likely. One has to think that the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or another squad I haven't mentioned will send Wieters a better one-year offer than the Braves would be comfortable with. But as the Braves move through the first month, if they are going to strike it big, the smart money is on gambling on Wieters right now.

Saturday, December 31, 2016

Another Six-Pack of Minor League Signings

Here's another six pack of minor league free agent signings from this winter. So far this winter, I have done three of these and each focused on pre-December signings. Today's group were all added in the final month of 2016.

By Minda Haas Kuhlmann (CC by 2.0) via Flickr
Lane Adams, OF, 27 years-old

Drafted in the 13th round of the 2009 draft out of Red Oaks, Oklahoma, Adams began his career in the Royals system. A right-hand hitter who grew into his 6'3" frame, Adams developed a bit of pop with double digit homerun years beginning in 2012 and continuing through last season. Along the way, he has shown a decent enough bat with a .269 career batting average and .344 on-base percentage. He's also become much more adept at swiping bases. After a career-high 19 steals in 2012, he set a new record the following year with 38 steals and tied his own record again in 2014. After 31 steals in 2015, he stole a new high 44 bases last year. He also briefly appeared for the Royals in 2014 for six games (0-for-3 at the plate). Last year, he headed to the Yankees on waivers. He was cut last July but hooked on with the Cubs' Double-A squad for a good month of August.

Adams does possess some interesting qualities like a career .141 ISO, 208 steals, and he's capable of playing center field. However, despite all of his success, Adams has never been able to hit Triple-A pitching. Curiously, he's rarely received an opportunity. During his career, he has played 300 more games at Double-A than Triple-A and originally reached Double-A in 2013. Nevertheless, it's a small black mark on his minor league career. Adams seems like a potential fourth outfielder ala Darren Bragg, but he's going to have to hit above Double-A first.

Andrew Albers, LHP, 31 years-old

There's always a job for a left-hander. Albers began his career as a tenth rounder in the Padres' system in '08 but would miss a pair of seasons after needing Tommy John. The Padres cut him and after re-establishing himself as a prospect in the independent Canadian-American Association, the Twins signed Albers for the 2011 season. They tried to use him as a starter because he fit their mold for starters at the time (control artist, gets grounders, low strikeout numbers). It got Albers to the majors in 2013 for ten starts with iffy results (4.05 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.42 xFIP). He would be cut after the season so that Albers could try his luck in Korea. In the hyper-offensive KBO, his numbers took a turn toward ugly and he returned as a minor league free agent for the Blue Jays. He spent most of 2015 struggling in Triple-A, though he did log 2.2 innings in the majors. Last year included a one-start reign with Lancaster in the Atlantic League before the Twins swooped in and grabbed him. While he again spent most of the year in the International League (though with better results), he also pitched 17 innings for the Twins with a 6.15 FIP.

For some reason, teams still consider Albers a starter even though he can't get righties out. If we just look at his major league split, the differences are stark. While Albers will never record big strikeout numbers, he also won't walk lefties. That allows him to limit lefties to a .268 OBP despite a .250 batting average against the lefty. He's given up just two homers and walked just two lefties in the majors. That could help him compete for a spot on the Braves this spring, but Albers is going to have to prove he has something a little extra. He does have a four-pitch mix, though he works primarily off his mid-80's sinker and high-70's slider. He'll also toss a slow high-60's curve along with a rare 77 mph change-of-pace. He's definitely in the mix, but he's got the deck stacked against him.

Manny Barreda, RHP, 28 years-old

Over the last few years, the Braves have added a number of former Yankee farmhands. Barreda, a 12th rounder in 2007 by the Yanks, is just another that fits the bill. It took Barreda five years to establish himself in a full season minor league as he appeared in 45 games for Charleston in 2011. It would be the first time Barreda excited you with his strikeout numbers (10 per nine innings) and frustrated you with his walk totals (6 per nine innings). In 2013, he finally reached Double-A, but the Yankees were beginning to grow tired of waiting for Barreda to put it together. He'd be cut in July of 2014 and immediately joined the Brewers' system. After a nice finish to 2014, he opened 2015 in Mexico before rejoining the Brewers to finish the season. He would spend all of 2016 in Mexico.

Barreda has yet to play in Triple-A (not counting the Mexican League) and while he has over a strikeout-an-inning during his career, it does not completely overcome a 4.8 BB/9 rate and an unimpressive 0.7 HR/9. Shortly before he signed with the Braves, Barreda did something fairly noteworthy. While pitching for the Caneros de los Mochis, he tossed a no-hitter. He would need 138 pitches to do so, though walked just one and struck out nine. A flyball pitcher, scouting reports are pretty scarce for Barreda. His fastball during the no-hitter was in the 91-93 mph range while his breaking stuff (which may have been two different pitches) looked to be about 82-85 mph.

Emilio Bonifacio, UTIL, 31 years-old

What more needs to be said about Bonifacio? For a decade, he's been hanging around the majors and playing nearly every position on the field while doing so. He's a career .258/.315/.335 hitter in the majors with 166 steals and not much else that stands out. Last year, after the Braves surprisingly gave him a major league deal despite a .198 OBP with the White Sox in 2015, Atlanta ultimately cut Bonifacio right before the season and later brought him back on a minor league deal. He was a solid member of a better-than-advertised Gwinnett ballclub, slashing .298/.356/.369 with 37 steals over 107 games. He was rarely utilized as an infielder (just two games at second base). Bonifacio also received a pair of callups to the majors and especially during the first call-up, he was used entirely too frequently (streak of 15 consecutive games played).

Bonifacio is who he is at this point. He won't get on base that well and even when he does, his speed isn't the weapon it once was. While his defensive flexibility is an asset, he's only carried a positive grade at second base and in right field (though the latter has sample size issues). He's sometimes more of a detriment to a team than anything as managers fall in love with his intangibles and lose perspective on what Bonifacio really brings to the team. As Triple-A depth, you can do worse and with any luck, Triple-A will be exactly where he spends 2017.

By Sports Crazy on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Rhiner Cruz, RHP, 30 years-old

Like Barreda, Cruz is coming back to affiliated ball after a season spent in the Mexican League. Unlike Barreda, the previous two years for Cruz mostly saw the right-hander play for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. The last time Cruz pitched full-time in the states was 2013 - also the last time he was in the majors. Originally a non-July international signing by the Tigers in 2003, Cruz was rarely healthy for the Tigers before being cut. He signed on with the Mets and played five seasons in their system before being the surprising first choice of the Rule 5 draft by the Astros ahead of the 2012 season. In a sign of how bad the Astros were in 2012, they used Cruz 52 times despite a 5.00 FIP and 1.71 WHIP. The next year, he pitched 20 times in the majors and though his ERA was 3.38, his FIP and xFIP were actually worse. In 2014, after 14 games in the minors, the Astros released him so he could head to Japan.

His results weren't terrible in the far east, though it didn't make teams anxious to bring him back either. He briefly played in Mexico last year as well and has logged 13 games in the Dominican Winter Leagues with, again, average results. In regards to Cruz's scouting report, he has a funky delivery which helps him keep batters off-balanced. He also pairs a mid-90's heater with a fringy slurve. Though he has over 70 games of major league experience, Cruz is not much of a threat to break camp with the Braves.

By Jeff Dahl (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL],
via Wikimedia Commons
John Danks, LHP, 31 years-old

Maybe the most intriguing minor league signing to this point is Danks, a lefty who has earned nearly $73 million playing baseball for the Chicago White Sox. Once the ninth overall pick of the 2003 draft, the White Sox acquired Danks (along with future Brave Nick Masset) in December of 2006 for Brandon McCarthy and a minor leaguer. A top prospect at the time, Danks would start 26 games for the White Sox in 2007. He was bad, but many rookie pitchers are. He was much better the next three years as he started 97 games with a 3.61 ERA over 608.1 innings. He was never an All-Star, as his 3.91 FIP might indicate, but he was a durable middle-of-the-rotation arm. While his ERA would climb the next year and he missed a half-dozen starts, the White Sox still extended Danks for $65 million over five years. It was comparable to other pitchers like Jered Weaver and Chad Billingsley at the time.

However, Danks never lived up to the contract. Over the first four seasons of the deal, his ERA approached 5 and his FIP did as well. Never a strikeout pitcher, he still underperformed his K numbers from before the extension. A 15.5 fWAR pitcher from 2007-to-2011, Danks' value would sink to 2.6 fWAR over the life of the deal from the nine-start 2012 to the four-start 2016 before the White Sox took him out back and shot him (not literally - they just released him). Danks velocity has lost a couple of ticks over the years while his pitch usage surprisingly changed as he entered the extension. Before 2012, he relied on his four-seamer, cutter, and change. Since then, he has added a sinker, upped his changeup and curve usage, while bringing down his four-seamer and cutter deliveries.

That change could be altered with the Braves. Atlanta might also opt to drop Danks out of the rotation discussion and try to bring him along as a reliever. Danks lacks traditional splits, though he does trend more positively against lefthanders as you might expect and the contrast over the last three years plus (2013-16) are a bit starker (.332 wOBA vs. .353) with about a 5% difference in groundball rate. Also of note is a 4% difference in softly-hit balls.

It's nearly impossible to predict greatness from this signing, but there might be something of use here. Also, consider that the Braves turned Bud Norris, Jhoulys Chacin, and Lucas Harrell into future assets last year. Danks has had a much more established career than that trio.

For more minor league free agent recaps, click below.
November 27, December 4, December 19, or check here for the complete rundown.

Saturday, December 24, 2016

Recently DFA'd Players of Interest

With many 40-man rosters full, anytime a player is added, that typically forces a corresponding move to open up a spot. Here are a quartet of players recently DFA'd and their chances of helping the Braves.

By Keith Allison (CC 2.0) via Flickr
Ji-Man Choi, Angels, 1B/OF

Signed out of South Korea in '09 by the Mariners, Choi finally reached the majors last season for the Angels and showed surprising power. I say "surprising" because despite playing traditional power positions, Choi's game doesn't really include a lot of power. Instead, he relies on a lot of doubles and a well-rounded offensive approach at the plate, which has helped Choi sustain a career .408 OBP in the minors.

Once in the majors, however, he struggled to make solid contact and managed just a 16.5% line drive rate over 129 PA. While he took his walks at a robust 12.4% clip and belted homers at a higher rate than when he was at Triple-A during 2016, his wOBA slumped to .267 and his wRC+ was a bad 67. He'll turn 26 in May and has two option years remaining so the Braves could stash him at Gwinnett. Plus, you have to love that his name is pronounced G-Man Choy. Yet, despite all of that, it seems unlikely for the Braves to find a place for Choi.

Angel Nesbitt, Tigers, RHP

Nesbitt is a prime example of how if you stick around long enough, eventually a situation will work out perfectly to get you to the major leagues. In 2015, Nesbitt's seventh year in professional ball, the righty broke camp with the Tigers. He had been decent enough the previous year as a 23 year-old playing Advanced-A and Double-A ball. It had been by far his best season of his minor league career that included three seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League.

Thing was - the 2015 Tigers bullpen was really bad. It managed a 0.0 fWAR for the entire season. That was better than Atlanta, but that was hardly something to be proud about. Nesbitt wasn't the worse option out of that bullpen and he was actually better than Ian Krol, but Nesbitt was still pretty horrid (4.70 FIP/4.93 xFIP). Detroit banished him to the minors a week-and-half into June. and he finished up 2015 pitching even worse in Toledo than he had pitched in Detroit. Last year was another lost year as he cycled through three levels while never finding himself. While a power arm, he's not known for big strikeout numbers and relies more on groundballs. For Atlanta's purposes, he'll be lost in a sea of power arms vying for position in the Braves' bullpen.

By Minda Haas on Flickr (Original version) UCinter-
national (Crop) [CC 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Peter O'Brien, D'Backs, UTIL

With teams looking at the possibility of an eight-man bullpen, benches must be stocked full of players with exceptional flexibility. O'Brien fits the bill. A former second-rounder by the Yankees out of "The U" in 2012, O'Brien was a catcher without the skillset to stay there. After an aborted attempted to turn him into a third baseman, O'Brien settled into a 1B and corner outfielder who also caught games. The D'Backs got him at the trading deadline in 2014 for Martin Prado and he spent time in the majors in each of the last two seasons.

The results over the 79 PA were fairly miserable. He did hit six homers, but hit .176 with 5 walks and 32 strikeouts. The problem is that those results are not too out-of-character for him. He's never had strong on-base numbers and has always struck out a ton. His saving grace has been a decent batting average and plus-plus power. Over five years and 513 games in the minors, he's sent 116 baseballs past the outfield wall. His best total, which came in 2014, was when he smacked 34 homeruns and then added five more in the Arizona Fall League. From a power standpoint, you won't find much better on the open market. The problem is contact or the lack there of.

Still, if you are searching for positional flexibility, finding a 1B/OF who can also catch is rare. Is taking a chance on O'Brien a better use of a 40-man roster slot than keeping around Jason Hursh? I think that it probably is based on what a maxed out O'Brien could be versus what a maxed out Hursh might be. Further, O'Brien has only used one option to this point so he could be stashed in Gwinnett if it doesn't work out this spring.

Jason Rogers, UTIL, Pirates

It would be a bit of a homecoming for Rogers if the Braves acquired him. Born in East Point, GA in 1988, Rogers attended Banneker High (College Park, GA) before attending Columbus State University. He began his career as a Brewers farmhand and came onto the scene in 2012 while playing for a pair of A-level squads. He hit .301 with 11 homers and a .854 OPS that year. His numbers improved in 2013 with a career-high 22 homers in Double-A along with a trip to the Arizona Fall League. He continued to hit in 2014 and earned an eight-game callup to the majors. He spent even more time in the majors the following year and handled himself well, hitting .296/.367/.441 over 169 PA. He was especially hot in the second half. After the season, the Pirates traded a pair of players to acquire Rogers.

He never got going in Pittsburgh. Before spending most of September with the team, he earned a pair of callups and struggled over the brief time he was in the majors. In September, he was used as a pinch hitter almost exclusively and managed just one single in 14 PA with 3 walks. His numbers in the minors were also a letdown (.263/.338/.371). He has experience at first, third, and both corner outfield slots (though mostly left field) and could be a nice right-handed bat off the bench if a change of scenery worked for him. He also has a pair of options left.

So, what do you think? Any of these guys worth a waiver claim?