Saturday Stats Pack: Flowers, Stolen Bases, Bullpen, Sims

Unlike last season where I posted two separate entries, I'm going to try to do one Saturday Stats Pack with both major league and minor league notable stats. So, without too much stalling, here is this week's edition.

Tyler Flowers (By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0],
via Wikimedia Commons)

.344 wOBA

Over the last two seasons, only six catchers have stepped into the batter's box at least 350 times and have a better weighted on-base average than Tyler Flowers. They include the current elite of the elite (Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy), the young Willson Contreras, a career-year from Wilson Ramos, the impressive Yasmani Grandal, and a part-time backstop in Evan Gattis. This is a surprise for White Sox fans, who saw Flowers post a wOBA of almost a hundred points lower during nearly 1400 PA playing in the black-and-white. To put it in simple terms, Flowers is simply making better contact. While with the White Sox, 20% of the balls he hit were given a soft-contact classification. There is a correlation between a high Soft% and a lower BABIP. Unsurprisingly, Flowers' BABIP has surged since coming to the Braves as he's lowered his Soft% to 13.4%. Meanwhile, his Hard-Hit rate has climbed 12 points. No catcher since 2016 can match it. Sure, there do remain sample size concerns here, but Flowers is winning over doubters every week that he continues to produce.

82.4%

So far, the Braves are 14-for-17 in stolen bases - a success rate of 82.4%. This would be some kind of franchise record. Only once in franchise history have the Braves reached the 80% threshold. That came in 1941 when the Braves swiped 61-of-76, good for an 80.3% rate. The Braves' best rate since moving to Atlanta came in 2012 when the Michael Bourn-Jason Heyward-Martin Prado outfield helped the Braves steal a shade under 76% of their attempts. Last year, they only stole 69%, which is still nice, I hear.

62.2 Innings

For all of the vitriol the Braves bullpen has received - and sometimes deserves - Brian Snitker has relied on his relievers for the third-fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball. Compared to the Reds, the Braves have needed 35.1 fewer innings from their relievers. To be fair, though...part of that accomplishment is because Atlanta has played, along with a few other teams, the fewest games in baseball - though the Reds have played just two more. Atlanta's starters have thrown 123 innings, good for 23rd.

What Are We, Anyway?

After Roger McDowell was let go, I wondered if it would alter how the Braves tried to pitch. McDowell was a guy who stressed the importance of pitching low and getting grounders. So far, the Braves pitching staff doesn't seem to be doing anything at a rate that suggests any kind of philosophy. Their strikeout rate is fourth worst, their walk rate is 11th worst, and only six teams induce fewer grounders. Their HR/FB rate is in the middle of the pact. However...they do one thing that stands out. 22% of the balls that batters connect on are rated as softly hit. This may be due, in part, because only the Cubs have a worse fastball velocity than the Braves. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if anything substantial comes from a Chuck Hernandez-led pitching staff like the McDowell years.

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

Minor League Stats of Interest...Gwinnett - 2.3 BB/9

There's nothing too exciting about the walk rate above until you bring it into context. Since 2015, Lucas Sims' walks per nine innings have ranged from 5.2 and 5.9. Before that, he kept it around 3.5 BB/9 - which isn't great, but certainly something that can be worked around as a starting prospect. Early on this season, we have seen a possible return to the pre-2015 version of Sims. In 23.2 innings, Sims has walked just six. Sims has always had the stuff and typically carries a low H/9 as a result. Now, he's keeping batters off base, though the BABIP is artificially too low and will climb. The Sims of 2017 is no longer a top prospect. Outfield Fly Rule did a composite list of his rating according to Braves' top prospect lists and he landed #21 - a bit lower than my ranking of #18. However, if he continues to pitch like the top-flight prospect he once was, it's only a matter of time until he gets a shot to show what he has.

Mississippi - 38.4%

Travis Demeritte has routinely seen his prospect status hurt by his strikeout rate. It was 33% last season and 35% the season before. The offensive skills are intriguing, but the strikeouts are an issue. And, to be frank, a strikeout rate of 38.4% is very bad. The thing is...that rate is about 20% higher than Demeritte's, who has only struck out in 18% of his plate appearances this year. Instead, the 38.4% strikeout rate belongs to Connor Lien. The defensively minded outfielder became a bit of a prospect back in 2015 when he slashed .285/.347/.415 at high-A ball with a plethora of big defensive plays, but injuries limited him to just 64 games when he played at Double-A last season. So far this season, he's put a clinic on how not to reclaim your prospect status. Lien has hit four homers and stolen five bases - trends that could end with season stats that look rather solid. But at a near 40% strikeout rate (compared to a near 5% walk rate), he'll be in line for some problematic times.

Florida - 7.20 ERA, but Trending Up

Touki Toussaint is still a raw pitcher facing hitters that are older and more experienced than he is. He's trying to solve high-A ball for the first time and is still over a month away from turning 21. You might look at his 7.20 ERA and say "he's just not ready for the Florida State League." I, on the other hand, look at his K/BB rate and start to get excited. Like Lucas Sims, Toussaint's stuff is off the charts. In fact, his stuff is as good as anyone's in minor league baseball. What talent evaluators have doubts about are his ability to harness and control that stuff. He's been hit hard so far this season, but his 3.8 K/BB rate tells me he might be "getting it" a bit more. Consider that his career rate is 1.75 strikeouts per walk. Don't be discouraged if you see that ERA. Something good might just be happening here.

Rome - Waves Upon Waves

We've heard how John Coppolella and company want to build a farm system that will send prospects to the majors in waves. After last season's Rome pitching staff that included three former first round picks led the team to a league title, the next wave has landed in Rome and the South Atlantic League has turned into their playground. In 22 games, the staff has a 2.28 ERA. Starters Ian Anderson (1.93 ERA), Joey Wentz (2.70), and Bryse Wilson (2.55) were all plucked out of the first-thru-fourth rounds last year and each has been excellent. Relievers Thomas Burrows, Jon Kennedy, and Matt Custred each have ERAs under 1.00. As a staff, Rome has a K/9 of 9.7 per nine and have surrendered just four homers. It's early, but it looks like Rome will be a favorite to repeat in the South Atlantic League.

Thursday Throwback - Reed Johnson

Sometimes, moves just don't pan out like they ought to. That was the case of the 2012 midseason trade that sent Reed Johnson, along with Paul Maholm, to the Braves. The trade was born out of a move that didn't happen and ultimately, failed to deliver despite looking like a good deal on paper for Frank Wren. Even when Wren made the right move, it just didn't seem to work.

But long before that trade, Reed Johnson was born a few weeks before Christmas in 1976. A product of Riverside, California, Johnson was a star in both baseball and soccer in high school. His success there landed him a coveted scholarship opportunity with Cal-State Fullerton, where he was an Academic All-American and posted strong offensive numbers as a catalyst for the Titans' offense. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson played well enough during his college years to move into the 17th round of the draft, which is where the Blue Jays took him. The '99 draft wasn't very good for the Jays. They took Alex Rios with their first round pick and he did develop into a decent player, but only three other players made it to the majors, including Johnson, the second-best player taken that year by Toronto.

After a summer of adjusting to pro ball, Johnson became an overnight prospect in 2000. He spent the year at two different A-ball stops and slashed .298/.420/.479, flashing plus-plus plate discipline and enough power and speed to be a very intriguing prospect. In 2001, this time at Double-A, Johnson became a name to watch. Spending the year with the Tennessee Smokies, Johnson slashed .314/.384/.451. The walk total was a bit of a letdown, but Johnson filled out his baseball card with 29 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, and 42 steals. The Southern League All-Star looked like he was a great late-round find for the Blue Jays and a player that could help them very soon.

After missing most of 2002 with injury, Johnson worked his way into the picture for the big league club in 2003. After opening the year in the minors, Johnson would soon establish himself as a major league performer with a strong summer. In 114 games in the majors, Johnson hit .294 with 10 homers and a .353 on-base percentage. The Jays had opened the year with super sub Frank Catalanotto in right field, but an injury to Shannon Stewart opened left for Catalanotto and allowed Johnson to slide into right field. Bobby Kielty would later join the team, cutting into Johnson's playing time, but Johnson proved his worth by being the Blue Jays' most used leadoff hitter.

For the next two years, Johnson was the regular left fielder for the Jays and was unspectacular in his job before a breakout 2006 campaign saw Johnson hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 homers. He led the AL in getting hit by a pitch that season as well. However, his success was short-lived. During an injury-marred 2007 season, he hit just .236 over 79 games. Johnson struggled the next spring as well and with the Jays feeling a roster crush, Toronto surprisingly released Johnson as spring training was nearing its end. The five-year pro would not remain available for long as he landed with the Cubs. A bench bat and platoon player, Johnson was a perfect fit in Chicago. He OPS'd .778 his first season with the Cubbies before slashing .255/.330/.412 during an injury-shortened 2009 season.

Johnson took his talents out west and played for the Dodgers in 2010, which wasn't much of a trip from the city he was born (Riverside). He struggled with in Los Angeles, though, and lasted just one year before returning to the Cubs in 2011. Like he had never left, his success returned.

That brings us to the 2012 season. The Cubs were in the first year of their rebuild under Theo Epstein. The former Red Sox mastermind had just hired Jed Hoyer to be their General Manager. That season, the Cubs were breaking in young Anthony Rizzo at first base (who, interestingly enough, Hoyer had dealt to the Cubs as the Padres' GM) and Chicago was trying to add young talent to the mix to build what eventually would become a winner. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were trying to get back to the playoffs after their 2011 collapse during then-manager Fredi Gonzalez's first year at the helm. The Cubs and Braves seemed like a perfect match and a week before the trading deadline, a deal seemed imminent. However, neither Johnson, nor lefthander Paul Maholm, were part of it.

Atlanta was desperate to add a starter to their team that they could count on. With Jair Jurrjens looking like a lost cause, the Braves had turned to Ben Sheets. 25 year-old Tommy Hanson was struggling and Brandon Beachy, also 25, had made just 13 starts before going down with injury. They still had Tim Hudson while Mike Minor was improving, as a team with playoff aspirations, Atlanta did not have the kind of rotation that would be able to compete against the big boys of the National League. Atlanta thought they had found their man in Ryan Dempster. The former closer had been excellent to begin 2012 with a 2.11 ERA through his first 15 starts. While Dempster wasn't an ace, he was the kind of bulldog starter that gave his manager and general manager a bit more confidence than hoping Sheets could make it through the summer or that Hanson could turn the corner.

Wren and Hoyer found the right mix of players that would make the deal happen. Atlanta would send young Randall Delgado to the Cubs, which would finally separate the four pitchers of the future (Minor, Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino). Another prospect would head to Chicago as well and the Braves would get Dempster. One little problem, though. With over 14 years of experience, including eight full seasons with the Cubs, Dempster qualified as a 10-5 player and could nix any deal. Dempster was open to a trade, but preferred to head out west where he could join his good buddy Ted Lilly and the Dodgers. While Dempster weighed his options - and definitely held out hope for a move to the Dodgers - the Braves grew agitated. All the perimeters were agreed upon and the deal had been leaked out to the public. Wren set a deadline for Dempster, but the right-hander refused to make a decision as he held out hope Los Angeles would step up. Atlanta ultimately took themselves out of the process rather than watch Dempster play the part of the girl with a date to the Prom all lined up, but is still hoping to go with the high school quarterback rather than the dude that actually wants to be with her. Not that I know anything about that...

The Braves still wanted a pitcher, but could not find a Dempster-like arm on the trade market. Instead, they called Hoyer up and asked about Maholm. A long time Pirate, Maholm had joined the Cubs the previous offseason and he was also having a good season. Not a great one like Dempster, but would give the Braves a serviceable left-hand arm for their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves did find their front-of-the-rotation arm by moving Kris Medlen into the rotation.  Coming along for the ride with Maholm and some bags of cash was Johnson. The Braves were stacked in the outfield with rookie Jason Heyward joining Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, but the prospect of adding a right-handed bat like Johnson to pair with Eric Hinske coming off the bench was a great fit. The Braves still broke up their four previously untouchable arms by sending Arodys Vizcaino to the Cubs in the deal along with reliever Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino was on the mend after having Tommy John surgery that spring.

Johnson got into 43 games down the stretch for the Braves and hit .270. He would get fairly regular time with Prado moving all over the field and helped to give the Braves their first real backup option to Bourn during the 2012 season. Both Prado and Bourn would be gone the next winter and would be replaced by Justin and Melvin "B.J" Upton Jr. Johnson, a free agent, liked Atlanta enough to return for a second year. He missed all of August with Achilles tendinitis, but missed even more time because Johnson was not a regular in the mix for the Braves even with the failures of the elder Upton. Instead, Johnson took a back seat to Jordan Schafer, who had returned after being claimed on waivers, and rookie Evan Gattis, who occasionally played left field to get his bat into the lineup more often. Johnson received five fewer plate appearances than Gerald Laird during the 2013 season and Johnson struggled to connect the bat to the ball with any authority.

During his year-and-a-half with the Braves, Johnson hit .256/.308/.332 with one homer, a pinch-hit two-run shot off former Braves farmhand Todd Redmond - then a member of Johnson's first team, the Jays. Johnson would struggle during a 2014 season spent as a reserve in Miami and continued his tour through the NL East with a stop in Washington next. A torn tendon in his left calf limited him to just 17 games with the Nats. He returned to DC the following year, but failed to make the roster coming out of camp last spring. I do not know if he's given up the dream of playing baseball again or not, but at 40 years-old, it seems unlikely that he'll continue his career.

His time with the Braves was short and ultimately uneventful. In the end, like many of Wren's deals, it just never worked like it should have. Of course, the Braves ended up re-acquiring Arodys Vizcaino from this deal so it cost precious little for Atlanta - even if it wasn't the deal they wanted.

Previous Throwbacks...
Mike Mordecai (1994-97)
David Ross (2009-12)
Ryan Langerhans (2002-03, 2005-07)

...or view ALL of them.

Should the Braves Bring Back Kelly Johnson and/or Jeff Francoeur?

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

It seems inevitable.

Maybe it shouldn't, but it really does seem like only a matter of time.

It is so expected that should the Atlanta Braves sign either Kelly Johnson or Jeff Francoeur over the next few days, it would surprise no one. The Braves have proven that when it comes to depth, they like to go to players they are comfortable with. Both Johnson and Francoeur were brought back last year and given a chance to win a job on their bench, which both did. For Johnson, it was actually the second time he re-Braved. Eric O'Flaherty, Emilio Bonifacio, and Kris Medlen are a few other players brought back for this year's roster that could eventually play for Atlanta in 2017. With the bench wide-open, why not Johnson? Why not Francoeur? Why not both?

Let's see if either, or both, are good fits for the Braves in 2017.

As I previously went over in a spring training battles preview for the bullpen, the Braves appear convinced to give the eight-man bullpen experiment a shot. I don't like the idea for an NL team that must utilize its bench on a nightly basis. Last season, the Braves did not use their bench nine times and six came in AL parks. That leaves just three times when the Braves did not use their bench for a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive replacement when they didn't have the aid of the DH. It's a rarity that a manager won't have to go to the bench two-or-three times under traditional National League rules. Yet, the Braves want to limit the bench to four players, which includes a backup catcher that managers will be apprehensive about using in case a catcher is needed later in the game.

Where does that leave the bench? Well, right now, we have a good idea about half of it. Kurt Suzuki was given a one-year, $1.5 million contract last month to support Tyler Flowers. While Anthony Recker will be given a chance to unseat Suzuki, there is a high probability that short of an injury, Flowers will be in the starting lineup on opening day with Suzuki on the bench. The other fairly known player in the mix is Jace Peterson. After 214 starts at second base the last two years, plus 13 additional starts at third base, left field, and center field, Peterson looks destined for the utility bench role many felt he would be best suited for as a prospect. With Sean Rodriguez out for potentially the whole season, Peterson will be asked to do much of what they expected out of Rodriguez, minus the lefty-bashing bat, as the newly acquired Brandon Phillips takes over at second base.

Plenty of other names are in the mix, including the aforementioned Bonifacio, Micah Johnson, Chase D'Arnaud, and Rio Ruiz. Would adding Johnson or Francoeur be an improvement?

Let's look at what each player brings the Braves. Kelly Johnson's third go-around with the Braves was brief. He played in just 49 games with Atlanta before being traded for the second consecutive season to the Mets. All in all, it was a down year for Johnson after a bit of a surprise resurgence in 2015. That year, he hit .265/.314/.435 with most of his best work coming before his July trade to New York. Last year, his numbers fell across the board, though this time, his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets. Throughout his career, the left-hand hitting Johnson has shown little preference between left-handed and right-handed pitchers with a slight edge in favor of facing southpaws.

By Sgt. Anthony Hewitt [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Francoeur was included in a late season trade to the Marlins. After playing in 100 games for the first time in three years with the Phils in 2015, Francoeur joined the Braves last year - seven years after the disappointing end to his run with Atlanta that included epic highs and massive lows. Francoeur hit just .249/.290/.381 before his trade and hit better, though with no power, with the Marlins. On the season, he had a .254/.297/.378 slash. Where he did shine, somewhat, was against left-handed pitching. His OPS saw a 90-point improvement when he had the platoon advantage. That's pretty close to his career marks, though it should be said that his .253/.293/.402 lifetime slash against right-handers makes his value limited.

Beyond the differences at the plate, what truly separates these players is defensive flexibility. The only time Francoeur has ventured away from the outfield was for a two-inning stint on the mound in 2015 and a one-inning fill-in job with the Marlins on the season's final day - a game former Braves player Martin Prado managed. Meanwhile, Johnson has played six different positions, including each position on the infield and both corner outfield positions.

If the Braves were to sign one, the final position on the bench would also be directly impacted. If the Braves signed Francoeur, it would improve D'Arnaud's position as the Braves might be more apt to keep a player with a wealth of experience at shortstop. Signing Johnson may also force that, though Peterson was a shortstop until 2014 and Johnson has made cameos at shortstop with the Mets the last two years. Neither should get much time there, but their experience may be enough to prompt the Braves into rolling the dice and only bringing up a shortstop if Dansby Swanson were to miss time.

If it were me, I'd consider Johnson because he can provide more support at multiple positions. That said, having both Johnson and Peterson could be considered redundant, though Johnson's success against lefthanders helps to differentiate himself from Peterson. As for Francoeur, you might be able to argue that he would be a decent pickup if you felt he could play all three outfield spots and possibly first base. The last time he ventured into center field was 2014 for four innings in Triple-A and he's never played first base. His bat would have to be his saving grace and we are talking about a guy who has slashed .237/.279/.372 over his last 1561 PA (five years). Again, you might say "But we need a right-handed bat off the bench for late inning lefthanders." Here's where I say "don't confuse Francoeur with Matt Diaz." If you recall, Diaz was the definition of a platoon-hitting right-handed batter who bashed lefties. Remember that five year sample I referenced a couple of sentences back? Francoeur has slashed .240/.292/.363 against southpaws since 2012. That comes out to a 73 wRC+. While his career numbers, and especially last year, are more slanted to a guy who hits lefties noticeably better, he's still only an average bat career-wise against lefties (101 wRC+). Kelly Johnson carries a 103 wRC+ against lefties and is not inept against righties (101 wRC+).

With that in mind, if I'm the Braves, I'm definitely trying to bring back Johnson. And bonus, you can trade him to the Mets again. Win-win.

What say you? Johnson? Francoeur? Both? Neither?

Recently DFA'd Players of Interest

With many 40-man rosters full, anytime a player is added, that typically forces a corresponding move to open up a spot. Here are a quartet of players recently DFA'd and their chances of helping the Braves.

By Keith Allison (CC 2.0) via Flickr

Ji-Man Choi, Angels, 1B/OF

Signed out of South Korea in '09 by the Mariners, Choi finally reached the majors last season for the Angels and showed surprising power. I say "surprising" because despite playing traditional power positions, Choi's game doesn't really include a lot of power. Instead, he relies on a lot of doubles and a well-rounded offensive approach at the plate, which has helped Choi sustain a career .408 OBP in the minors.

Once in the majors, however, he struggled to make solid contact and managed just a 16.5% line drive rate over 129 PA. While he took his walks at a robust 12.4% clip and belted homers at a higher rate than when he was at Triple-A during 2016, his wOBA slumped to .267 and his wRC+ was a bad 67. He'll turn 26 in May and has two option years remaining so the Braves could stash him at Gwinnett. Plus, you have to love that his name is pronounced G-Man Choy. Yet, despite all of that, it seems unlikely for the Braves to find a place for Choi.

Angel Nesbitt, Tigers, RHP

Nesbitt is a prime example of how if you stick around long enough, eventually a situation will work out perfectly to get you to the major leagues. In 2015, Nesbitt's seventh year in professional ball, the righty broke camp with the Tigers. He had been decent enough the previous year as a 23 year-old playing Advanced-A and Double-A ball. It had been by far his best season of his minor league career that included three seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League.

Thing was - the 2015 Tigers bullpen was really bad. It managed a 0.0 fWAR for the entire season. That was better than Atlanta, but that was hardly something to be proud about. Nesbitt wasn't the worse option out of that bullpen and he was actually better than Ian Krol, but Nesbitt was still pretty horrid (4.70 FIP/4.93 xFIP). Detroit banished him to the minors a week-and-half into June. and he finished up 2015 pitching even worse in Toledo than he had pitched in Detroit. Last year was another lost year as he cycled through three levels while never finding himself. While a power arm, he's not known for big strikeout numbers and relies more on groundballs. For Atlanta's purposes, he'll be lost in a sea of power arms vying for position in the Braves' bullpen.

By Minda Haas on Flickr (Original version) UCinter-
national (Crop) [CC 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Peter O'Brien, D'Backs, UTIL

With teams looking at the possibility of an eight-man bullpen, benches must be stocked full of players with exceptional flexibility. O'Brien fits the bill. A former second-rounder by the Yankees out of "The U" in 2012, O'Brien was a catcher without the skillset to stay there. After an aborted attempted to turn him into a third baseman, O'Brien settled into a 1B and corner outfielder who also caught games. The D'Backs got him at the trading deadline in 2014 for Martin Prado and he spent time in the majors in each of the last two seasons.

The results over the 79 PA were fairly miserable. He did hit six homers, but hit .176 with 5 walks and 32 strikeouts. The problem is that those results are not too out-of-character for him. He's never had strong on-base numbers and has always struck out a ton. His saving grace has been a decent batting average and plus-plus power. Over five years and 513 games in the minors, he's sent 116 baseballs past the outfield wall. His best total, which came in 2014, was when he smacked 34 homeruns and then added five more in the Arizona Fall League. From a power standpoint, you won't find much better on the open market. The problem is contact or the lack there of.

Still, if you are searching for positional flexibility, finding a 1B/OF who can also catch is rare. Is taking a chance on O'Brien a better use of a 40-man roster slot than keeping around Jason Hursh? I think that it probably is based on what a maxed out O'Brien could be versus what a maxed out Hursh might be. Further, O'Brien has only used one option to this point so he could be stashed in Gwinnett if it doesn't work out this spring.

Jason Rogers, UTIL, Pirates

It would be a bit of a homecoming for Rogers if the Braves acquired him. Born in East Point, GA in 1988, Rogers attended Banneker High (College Park, GA) before attending Columbus State University. He began his career as a Brewers farmhand and came onto the scene in 2012 while playing for a pair of A-level squads. He hit .301 with 11 homers and a .854 OPS that year. His numbers improved in 2013 with a career-high 22 homers in Double-A along with a trip to the Arizona Fall League. He continued to hit in 2014 and earned an eight-game callup to the majors. He spent even more time in the majors the following year and handled himself well, hitting .296/.367/.441 over 169 PA. He was especially hot in the second half. After the season, the Pirates traded a pair of players to acquire Rogers.

He never got going in Pittsburgh. Before spending most of September with the team, he earned a pair of callups and struggled over the brief time he was in the majors. In September, he was used as a pinch hitter almost exclusively and managed just one single in 14 PA with 3 walks. His numbers in the minors were also a letdown (.263/.338/.371). He has experience at first, third, and both corner outfield slots (though mostly left field) and could be a nice right-handed bat off the bench if a change of scenery worked for him. He also has a pair of options left.

So, what do you think? Any of these guys worth a waiver claim?

Random Prospect Sunday - Omar Obregon

Switch-hitting middle infielders with a good hit tool are always worth an extended look - even in a system that has both Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson. While Omar Obregon isn't close to reaching their prospect status, he has done enough to warrant some attention as we head into the summer of the 2016.

(For some pictures of Obregon, click here.)

Born April 18, 1994 in Nicaragua, Obregon comes from a nation that has rarely produced any decent major league bats. Only one player was both born and raised in Nicaragua and received at least 2,000 career plate appearances - Everth Cabrera. Just that is enough to work against the young infielder. Nevertheless, the Braves during the Frank Wren years loved Obregon's game enough to sign him when the 2011-12 international free agent period opened up.

After a year spent in the international complex, Obregon was added to the Dominican Summer League squad in 2012 as an 18 year-old. Walk numbers are very unreliable at that level because of the wildness from opposing pitchers, but he did walk 21 times to just 19 strikeouts. However, aside from two doubles, most of his 25 hits were of the single-base variety, giving him an ISO of just .021. Weight room much? A promotion to the states in 2013 with the Gulf Coast League Braves saw his numbers fall at the plate (this time, he had one triple and 24 singles).

The 2014 season would see Obregon  rebound to hit .297 with a .384 OBP - with the assistance of 24 BB/25 K rate. He also upped his ISO to a bit more respectable (.049). Another move that may have helped is that the Braves were able to move him off shortstop, where he really doesn't have the arm, and more him over to second base - especially with Albies joining him in Danville. While it decreases his overall value and certainly, Obregon can play shortstop, it's a bit of a stretch for him.

The following season saw Obregon jump into full-season ball with Rome. In 119 games, Obregon slashed just .274/.336/.317, but did swipe 31 bases after just 17 steals in the previous three years in short-season ball. The unfortunate thing was that Obregon was caught 19 times, which is a terrible stolen base rate. After spending the spring with Team Nicaragua in their efforts to qualify for the next World Baseball Classic, Obregon joined Carolina to begin this season and has displayed improved extra-base skills with a nearly .100 ISO so far. Yes, that's pretty terrible, but it could be a sign that Obregon is maturing a bit. His skills on the base pathes continue to need work (2-for-6 in steals so far).

I'm providing a more robust scouting report to Outfield Fly Rule so please check that out for more information, but suffice it to say, what we have seen is what we get with Obregon. Defensively, he's smooth at second and while his arm isn't plus-grade at short, it's plenty good at second base to make all the plays. He shows good instincts with the glove. The Braves have used him at both corner infield positions. I think his arm is good enough for spot duty at third, but no more than that. He's a bit on the short side to play first base, but it's good to see him get work around the infield as his pathway to the majors will be as a utility player.

His best case scenario will be to follow the Martin Prado path. Let me say that it's unlikely he will ever match Prado's pop and so Obregon will likely be limited to being only a backup. With that in mind, Obregon could succeed in that role. His best offensive tool is his hit tool as he has good bat control. With a switch-hit bat coming off the bench and a penchant for putting the ball in play, Obregon could find enough green grass to rack up some hits. He's unlikely to walk much, but with his quick-and-compact swing, he's unlikely to strikeout much either. He has good speed, but lacks the instincts and/of confidence to turn that into successful steals.

All in all, Obregon is part of a good collection of talent that is in the 45-60 range as far as a Top Braves Prospects ranking would look. Similar to Luke Dykstra, there is enough hear to see Obregon progressing into something useful - but also not enough hear to think that is very likely.

For more on Obregon, remember to check out my scouting report. In addition, here are some old videos of Obregon.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #2

With the 2016 draft tomorrow, it's time to get to the end of this series. Just three more articles remain after this one.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

2nd Worst Draft Since 2000 - The 2011 Draft 

Gilmartin | By Kaotate [GFDL or CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

On one hand, Atlanta's haul in the 2011 draft produced eight major leaguers. On the other hand, the Frank Wren/Tony DeMacio-led approach of cheap, sign-able college players effectively reduced the chance that the Braves would bring an impact player into the system. The 2011 edition would possibly be their worst draft together.

Flash back to 2010. The Atlanta Braves would win 91 games in Bobby Cox's final year and were batting on the young duo of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens to lead their rotation while the also young core of Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and the just-arrived Freddie Freeman would give the Braves a big boost at the plate. The Braves also had high hopes for the foursome of Mike Minor, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado, and Julio Teheran. You could forgive Wren and DeMacio if they felt they had a dynasty on their hands.

Of course, they didn't and the 2011 draft certainly didn't help matters. Their first pick finally came with the 28th overall selection. As they had done two years before, they went with a left-hander out of a big southern college program. But Sean Gilmartin wasn't Minor - who certainly raised his share of eyebrows when the Braves drafted him. Minor's floor was noticeably higher than Gilmartin for one. Gilmartin was a borderline Top 50 player heading into the draft. He was a perfectly fine second rounder, but the Braves played it safe as they had done so often during the Wren years. Either there was an edict that they needed to compete and needed cheap depth players to fill in the gaps rather than hope for the best with an 18 year-old out of high school or the Braves were just flatout missing. Regardless, Atlanta made the choice to knowingly give up on the high reward and play the chances that they have grabbed a high enough floor guy to play in the majors.

They were successful. They also had very bad drafts as a result. 2011 stands out because the Braves not only drafted a college player in the first round once again, they did so in 18-of-the-first-19 rounds. They went with smart kids out of UConn (Nick Ahmed) and Gonzaga (Cody Martin) along with smaller school standouts like Kyle Kubitza and Tommy La Stella. The draft could have just easily been a winner. Instead of Joe Panik or Henry Owens, it was Gilmartin in the first round. Instead of Andrew Susac in the second, it was Ahmed. Instead of Carter Capps, it was Kubitza in the third. Rather than draft Greg Bird in the fifth, they took Nick DeSantiago. Could have had Ken Giles, but took Martin in the seventh.

Is this unfair? You betcha. But 2011 showed just how warped the Braves valued talent in the draft under Wren and DeMacio. I'm not a guy who buries Wren. I think he shoulders too much of the blame. But when it came to the draft, the Braves simply were missing and missing badly.

Here is a sign that something went wrong. The 2011 draft was just five years ago. Nobody from the draft remains the system. Some, like Gilmartin and Martin, were given away. As was J.R. Graham, who the Braves lost voluntarily in the Rule 5 draft. Kubitza and La Stella were traded for arms with higher upside. John Cornely and Gus Schlosser were sent packing. As was Ahmed, though at least he was a piece that helped the Braves acquire Justin Upton.

If a year stands out as a reason to not play it safe and draft for need, it's 2011. The Braves got exactly what they sought - good bets to make it to the majors. Eight of them did that - so far. But their roles in the majors reflect the conservative draft philosophy the Braves followed. Each player that has made it to the bigs has little chance of developing into much more than they were when they were drafted.

TOT: Braves Go Double on Ex-AL 3Bs

Transaction Of Today - January 5, 2010...The Atlanta Braves signed Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske as free agents.

Sorry, couldn't find a Braves pic with both
Jay Gula | Getty Images

The 2009 Atlanta Braves finished short in their bid to return to the playoffs, but had high expectations entering 2010 to rectify that. Jason Heyward was about to arrive, they had some nice young pieces in the rotation like Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson, and had just added Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to what was supposed to be a good bullpen. But they had a hole at first base. Freddie Freeman was a year away so they sought some stopgap options and got a pair of them with Glaus and Hinske.

Make no mistake - this was supposed to be Glaus's show. The 2000 AL Homerun Champ, Glaus had been productive in 2008 before missing most of the following year. He was breaking down due to injuries, but the Braves rolled the dice that he could handle first base, a position he had played sparingly in his career, and provide some power. The previous year had seen the Braves replace an ineffective Casey Kotchman with Adam LaRoche, but Sleepypants left for bigger money. The hope was that Glaus simply could stay healthy enough in his age-33 year to give Atlanta enough production.

As for 'Ski, he gave the Braves another power bat and a little outfield insurance if Heyward struggled. The 2002 AL Roockie of the Year had reached 400 plate appearances just once in the previous five years, but was a productive platoon/bench option along with being a high-character player.

Things got off to a poor start for Glaus and he ended the first month of the season with a .194/.310/292 line. May would see him get hot, though, as he slashed .330/.408/.534 during the month with 6 HR while being named NL Player of the Month. Atlanta, who had began the year much like Glaus (9-14 in April), surged with 20 victories in May and were just a half-game out when the month ended. They would win their next four to increase a win streak to nine and took over the NL East until September when the Phillies passed them. Like the Braves, Glaus couldn't retain his torrent May pace as summer dragged on. While productive for most of June, Glaus collapsed in a 39-game stretch from June 28 to August 17 when he slashed just .172/.282/.267. His struggles would prompt the Braves to trade for Derrek Lee in August so that they could DL and rest Glaus. He would make it back in September and started a pair of games at first base with a brief cameo at third base mixed in.

Hinske got off to a wonderful start with an RBI triple on opening day (aka the game Heyward homered in his AB). He was OPSing over a thousand as late as June 1 and received increased playing time in place of the jerkish loafer Melky Cabrera. His overall numbers declined as a result, He also played a good deal at first for Glaus. By the end of the year, Hinske's slash was a solid .256/.338/.456 with 11 HR.

Both players would get their postseason moment. Not expected to play in the field, Glaus was supposed to provide a bench option for the depleted Braves, who were missing both Chipper Jones and Martin Prado as the NLDS against the Giants began. After falling 1-0 in the opener, Game 2 in San Francisco was tied at four as the tenth began. In a double switch, the Braves moved Omar Infante to second base for the hapless Brooks Conrad and put Glaus in at third with Billy Wagner coming into pitch. Wagner would hurt himself on a sacrifice bunt, which would be his last game. Kyle Farnsworth entered and promptly hit Freddy Sanchez and walked Aubrey Huff. With Buster Posey at the plate and the infield drawn-in, Posey sent a screamer to third. Glaus, who had played just two innings all year at third base, could have gone to home to get the potential game-winning runner, but instead opted to throw to second. Infante caught it and gunned down Posey at first base (video). The double play extended the game into the 11th and Rick Ankiel hit a 2-2 homer to put the Braves ahead and tie up the series.

Hinske nearly put the Braves in a position to push the Giants to the brink. With the score 1-0 in the 8th inning in Game 3, Glaus was announced as the pinch hitter to face Jonathan Sanchez with a runner on first. San Francisco countered with Sergio Romo which prompted Bobby Cox to go with 'Ski. On the sixth pitch of the at-bat with the count 2-2, Romo hung a slider and Hinske hammered it just beyond the right-field wall (video). However, Craig Kimbrel, then a rookie pressed into closer duty with the Wagner injury, blew it in the ninth and the Giants won. They would go onto win Game 4 as well.

While he stuck around for two more years, Hinske's OPS fell from .793 to .713 to .583 in 2012. He would play one more year, this time with Arizona, before retiring. He's moved into coaching since and is an assistant hitting coach for the Cubs. As for Glaus, he would get the start in Game 4, but went hitless. It was the last game he played. He kept the option of returning opening for a year, but never got an offer he couldn't say "no" to. He officially retired in December of 2011 and is eligible for the Hall of Fame this year, though he's unlikely to get 5% to stick around for another year.

Ultimately, the signings that were announced six years ago today gave us two of the best postseason moments of the last decade. All in all, a good day.

Once a Brave, Always a Brave - NL East

In today's look around the league at former Braves, the focus is on the NL East. Because teams to not deal with their divisional rivals often, there aren't a lot of ex-Braves in the NL East - though most of the ones that are populate major league rosters. As usual, this list cannot be considered exhaustive and there is a better than average chance I'm missing a player or two. If you know of one, please comment below.

Miami Marlins
P Mike Dunn - He only spent 25 games with the Braves back in 2010 and walked way too many batters, but Dunn has been a solid reliever for Florida/Miami since arriving in the trade we try not to talk about involving a current National. He's been a little iffy this year for the Marlins, posting a 1.43 WHIP to go with an ugly 1.0 HR/9. But sample sizes involving just 26.2 innings can be problematic. He's signed through next year and here's a fun fact...his only experience in the postseason came as a Brave. He retired four-of-six Giants he faced in 2010 during three scoreless outings.

1B Jeff Baker - There are currently two players in the majors who were born in Germany. Edwin Jackson of the Cubs and Baker of the Marlins. He appeared in 14 games with the Braves after they picked him up in 2012 and had just two singles in 19 AB. Oddly, the Braves sent the Tigers Greg Ross to complete the deal. Ross, a pitcher, was cut at the end of spring training in 2013 without appearing in a game for the Tigers organization. He then resigned with the Braves and has spent the last year-and-a-half in Mississippi.

3B Martin Prado - Go ahead, name a Brave who was more beloved than Prado over the last five years. Freddie Freeman? Maybe. Craig Kimbrel? Possibly. But Prado was impossible not to like. A non-prospect who was supposed to have a best-case future of being a utility guy, Prado pushed Kelly Johnson to the side in 2009 and was an All-Star the following year. A trade moved him to left and over two years, he remained a pretty solid option out there. However, the Braves moved him to the D'Backs for Justin Upton as Prado wanted more money than the Braves were willing to give up. He has also played for the Yankees and now Marlins since leaving Atlanta and his numbers just don't look nearly as impressive as they did as a Brave (.280/.324/.407). He's on the DL with a shoulder injury.

New York Mets
P Buddy Carlyle - Last year, when Carlyle signed a minor league deal with the Mets, I looked at what Carlyle did for the Braves. In a certain way, Carlyle mimics Prado in that it's impossible not to like him, though that didn't make Carlyle beloved by any means. Carlyle was drafted in 1996 and despite making it to the majors in 1999, he has just one year where he has thrown 100 major league innings in a single season - 2007 with the Braves. If anyone bitches about how awful the Braves pitching has been at times this year, I point them to 2007. When Carlyle started 20 games, Chuck James started 30, Kyle Davies started 17, Jo-Jo Reyes started 10, and Lance Cormier started 9. I would mention Mark Redman's five starts, but I would have flashbacks that would send me under the desk in a fetal position.

P Sean Gilmartin - I remember someone getting upset we traded this guy for Ryan Doumit. Now, Doumit was an utter failure, but Gilmartin wasn't much of a prospect. Unfortunately, he's been pretty decent this year as a Rule 5 LOOGY for the Mets. I'd like to suggest it's all smoke and mirrors, but it's not. He might not ever be a major league starter, but he's got a shot to be good in limited bullpen action.

2B Brooks Conrad (AAA) - With Conrad, you get two memorable things that show the highs and lows of being a professional athlete. There were his two pinch-hit Grand Slams in 2010, including the one that made the Braves walk-off winners on May 20 against the Reds - still one of the coolest moments since The Streak ended. But...that kind of gets overshadowed by one of the worst postseason efforts in history. Not only did he managed just a single in 12 AB, but he was a nightmare in the field. His total four errors for the series was bad...especially when three came in Game 3, including on a grounder right between his legs that led to the go-ahead run in a 3-2 loss. Oh, his second led a to a run, too (though Jason Heyward should have called him off). 2010 should have been the best season of his career. Anyway, he has hit .205 for Las Vegas this year.

Philadelphia Phillies
P Aaron Harang - Harang has seen his strikeout rate fall a tick and his homer rate go up due to the park he plays in, but he's continued to show that he's not finished. Sadly, the Phillies are and have lost 11 of his 17 starts, which saddles Harang with the Senior Circuit's most losses. He hit the DL last week with plantar fasciitis.

OF Jeff Francoeur - After a year mostly spent in the minors, the now 31 year-old Francoeur is back in the majors and receiving significant playing time for the Phillies. He's hit about how you'd expect him to. He also got a chance to pitch this year and threw two innings against the Orioles on June 16, giving up two runs, walking three, and striking out Nolan Reimold, the first batter he ever faced.

Washington Nationals
P David Carpenter - His first name is actually Darrell so we have the REAL David Carpenter now. OldCarp flamed out in the Bronx and was shown the door after just 22 games. So, again, they gave up Manny Banuelos for Chasen Shreve and 22 games of OldCarp. Thanks! The Nats sent a minor leaguer to the Yankees for OldCarp and in his first eight games, he looked kinda better. He's currently on the paternity list so congrats!

2B Dan Uggla - At this point, Uggla's value is kind of the same as Jonny Gomes. You can use him against a starting lefthander and left-handed relievers, but you have to hide him against righties. Uggla has actually struck out as a lower rate than each of the last three years so maybe he's seeing the ball a bit better.

OF Reed Johnson - Another guy limited to only platoon advantage at-bats, Johnson spent a year-and-a-half in Atlanta and was pretty decent, though he posted better numbers as a Cub. He spent last year with the Marlins and now continues his NL East journey with the Nats. Well, except that he has been on the shelf since the 13-12 comeback win over the Braves that sent many a Braves fan in a downward spiral. The "big pop" in his foot required surgery and he is not expected back before rosters expand in September.

Recently profiled in Once a Brave, Always a Brave...
AL West
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AL East

Random Prospect Sunday - Daniel Castro

The Lynchburg Hillcats didn't have a lot of talent last season, especially in the second half. During the first few months, though, they had a sparkling double play duo. At second base, there was uber-prospect Jose Peraza, a player with the range to play shortstop but blocked by the presence of Andrelton Simmons. But the guy manning shortstop was pretty good, too. Mexican-born Daniel Castro, who would lead all High Class A shortstops in Assists/Game, benefited from the move of Peraza to the other side of second base. At the end of the season, Peraza was named the best defensive second baseman in the Carolina League and Castro was the top defensive shortstop according to the managers of the league.

Getty Images

Born November 14, 1992 in Guaymas, Mexico, Castro was a nice find by the scouting department in 2009. He might even make you think of a former lanky infielder out of Mexico the Braves once found - Vinny Castilla. Castro spent two years in the Dominican Summer League and forgot to hit (.191/.292/.236). Atlanta let Castro return to his home land and loaned him to Saltillo of the Mexican League for a year-and-a-half. Castro was playing against guys who were 10 years older than him in 2012, but the 19 year-old more than held his own, hitting .291 with 3 HR. He didn't walk. At all. Well, he did walk three times in 126 plate appearances, but that's the kind of discrepancy that makes Simba look like a patient hitter. Castro returned the next year and his numbers even improved to a triple slash of .312/.339/.472.

The Braves brought back Castro for the final month of 2013 and he hit .284 over 26 games with 7 walks and 6 K's with the Hillcats. It was an impressive comeback considering Castro's bat was completely not there when he first played in the organization in the DSL.

2014 was an opportunity for Castro. When the Braves moved Peraza to second base, it opened up time for Castro to not only stay at shortstop, but thrive there. He struggled some during the first month, but lit up the Carolina League for a .327 average during May. He continued to produce in June, including getting his first homer. At the end of June, Castro was given the news that he was going to rejoin Peraza, who had been promoted to Mississippi a couple of weeks before. Castro reached base a little bit less in Mississippi, but did find some power with a quartet of homers. Overall, he slashed .286/.312/.398 with 5 HR, 9 steals, and 15 walks to 38 strikeouts. He ended the year with a number of accolades, some that I've already mentioned. He also played for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League and was the only Brave to be named to the AFL's Fall Stars Game.

Castro would get an invite to spring training this season and had a few hits before getting reassigned and beginning the year back with Mississippi.

So, what kind of player is Castro? Well, he didn't make my Top 30, but I have seen him toward the end of other lists. I did include Castro in my epilogue article where I expanded my list to one extra player at each position. I mentioned that his glove could get him a look. That might be a little drinking the kool-aid based on the numbers and accolades because scouts seem to believe that Castro lacks the range to ever be more than average at the position. On the other hand, he does have a powerful arm and unlike many young shortstops, he is not plagued by errors. Will he ever hit enough? I've seen a few people bring up the name Martin Prado as a high-end projection for Castro. With his arm, he could be able to shift around a bit, but hard to see him matching Prado's offensive capabilities. Prado was a near .300 hitter in the minors and then added more pop when he got to the majors. Castro doesn't seem like that kind of player, but he could surprise some people.

Overall, Castro is a borderline prospect at this point in a system full of middle infield options. He could very well surprise some people and it's easy to like him, but he's going to have a tough time getting noticed when there is Simba, Jace Peterson, Peraza, and oh, Ozhaino Albies a couple rungs lower on the ladder.