Reaction: John Coppolella Resigns in Disgrace

For three years, John Coppolella was treated as a wunderkind. The Notre Dame graduate who had cut his teeth in the Yankees organization before coming south, Coppolella represented a new era for the Atlanta Braves. He seemed ultra-capable in fleecing other teams of prospects and draft choices while also bringing together a talented group of scouts and assistants to comb the globe for new talent. Under his leadership, the Braves' scouting department flourished and with his background in statistical analysis, he seemed like the perfect blend of the traditional mindset and more modern approach. Coppolella gave Braves fans hope. Coppolella convinced fans to trust the process.

Around one in the afternoon on Monday morning, that trust was irrevocably broken as Coppolella resigned from his position in disgrace. While details are currently sketchy, we do know that under Coppolella, the Braves ran afoul of "rules regarding the international player market." Others have suggested domestic spending in the draft may also be involved. In addition, as Jeff Passan tweeted, "Coppolella's treatment of Braves employees" was also put under the microscope. Maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised.

It was a little more than a month ago that Ken Rosenthal penned a piece for The Atlantic about the level of discord in the Braves' front office. At the time, it seemed limited to problems between Coppolella and Hart on one side and the old guard of John Schuerholz and his guys on the other. However, the issues in the front office went beyond that as we found out today. With the general manager now out of the way, the narrative changed from the local stories of how capable Coppolella was to the tweets many national writers were not writing before the news broke. With Coppolella in charge, people like Rosenthal and Passan couldn't unleash their observations on the character of Coppolella because they needed him for quotes and news. With him gone, the tweets began to come out in droves of how poorly thought-of by the industry Coppolella was and how no one was sad to see him go.

Some of that could be sour grapes. After all, Coppolella did fleece many general managers. However, it seems to go deeper than that and it appears like Coppolella - for all of his good qualities - rubbed many people the wrong way. This is not unlike the man he basically replaced in Frank Wren and it's amazing that their dismissals carry much of the same narrative, though Wren's firing was far more simplistic and seems much more contained. Wren was hated by many people close to the Braves. Coppolella was hated by seemingly the industry he worked in. As Passan pointed out, the news about Coppolella brought "a lot of schadenfreude right now."

There were will be much more detailed reporting to come in regards to what the Braves did under Coppolella and retrospectives of his time with the Braves, but the striking thing to me is that a guy who was regarded as such a capable general manager might never work in a baseball front office again. Again, you can compare this to Wren. He found work. He may have burned every bridge possible in Atlanta, but he was still respected outside of the south. Coppolella seems outright loathed.

The word many used to describe Coppolella was "relentless." That aided him - and the Braves - in an organizational reset that saw Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel traded within months of Wren's removal. That was followed up by moving Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller, bold moves to bring in a higher-class of talent than the Braves had been able to acquire in the trades the previous winter. However, his relentless "make this happen" approach also led to deals for Hector Olivera and wasting Kimbrel's value just to get rid of Melvin Upton Jr. Coppolella was creative, that much is true. But he wasn't perfect - even when the Atlanta-area media (or bloggers like myself) made it sound like he was.

Moving forward, the Braves have what could be a highly-coveted position available should other general managers not shy away due to the questions regarding whatever punishments should await the Braves. The best case scenario is that the Braves pay fines and possibly have restrictions put on them in the international and/or domestic markets. The worst case? The Braves get all of those restrictions and fines plus lose prospects - maybe even Kevin Maitan, according to Passan's latest article. While details remain fuzzy, the fact Coppolella resigned leads me to brace for the worst. Similar to a college program giving player under-the-table benefits, the Braves may have done the same with Maitan which could force Major League Baseball to bring the hammer down. Passan also sheds light on some possible negotiating issues the Braves had with Drew Waters after selecting the outfielder this offseason. According to the report, some benefits were offered to Waters to make up in the difference between the signing bonus he received and the slot value he could have received. Both prospects rank among the top handful of position prospects currently in the Braves' system and there's a possibility these players are the tip of the iceberg.

The chance of dealing with sanctions from this mess awaits the next general manager, whoever that might be. Some have suggested Dayton Moore is a natural fit and he kind of always has been. Had he not left before Schuerholz's retirement, it likely would have been Moore and not Wren who got the keys to the castle. Perhaps Coppolella never rises to the top in the Braves' organization and perhaps we never live the darkest timeline. The good news is that even if the worst case scenario awaits the Braves, the system will continue to be stocked with talent - even if they lose some of their best ones.

Braves fans - and I consider myself one - found it easy to like Coppolella especially if you could trust the process. He marketed himself well, something that may have made it even easier for rival general managers to hate him. Whether it was candid interviews or through lengthy Q&A's with Braves fans, referred to as #AskCoppy, the former Braves general manager was far less reserved than most general managers who often only spoke during press conferences in a rehearsed manner. Zealous, but also patient, Coppolella built a collection of young talented envied throughout the game.

It was easy, with Coppy reassuring us, to trust the process. It'd work out.

It's almost ironic. This was finally the first year that we began to see the fruits of Coppolella's labor play out. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson up the middle. Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo at third. Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and Max Fried all starting games for the team in September. A.J. Minter coming out of the pen. And the best was yet to come as Ronald Acuna, Mike Soroka, and Kolby Allard all appear primed to appear in the majors in 2018. The process is getting closer and closer to bringing success to a city starving for their baseball team to once again be among the game's elite.

And it still should be that way. The Braves are still on the rise. The Nationals will still have to worry about the Braves in the coming years. None of that has changed. In their beautiful new ballpark, the Atlanta Braves will be contenders sooner rather than later.

It just won't be with the guy who helped make it happen anymore.

Saturday Stats Pack: Catching, Atlanta's Non-Manager, Acuna's Exploits

Johan Camargo's Shocking Season

Camargo started at shortstop Friday night and singled once in three trips to the plate. His average actually dropped a tad to .327 in the process. That's how's Camargo's surprising rookie campaign has gone to this point. Over 40 games, the switch-hitter has on-based .355 due to just a 4.5% walk rate but has shown new-found pop to keep his slugging a shade under .500. His numbers are remarkably similar to his Gwinnett metrics this season, though with a higher strikeout percentage. He's also benefitted from a .410 BABIP. Rather than address the chances his production remains stellar - that's not the purpose of this column - it's worth noting that we started to see some changes from Camargo last year (his ISO went up nearly 40 points) and at the age of 23-years-old, it's not unheard of to add muscle. To that possibility, people I've spoken to point out he that looks bigger and stronger than ever before. If the BABIP does fall - and I predict that it will - Camargo still could turn into a nice piece that belongs on a major league roster and maybe not all that glitters is gold, but in Camargo's case, some of it might just be.

The Starting Rotation Is Close to Something

Tonight, Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Braves. With a good game, he could push his fWAR over 1.0 for the season. Right now, the Braves still do not have a 1-win starter and only Jim Johnson has crossed that plateau as a pitcher for the Braves. Garcia is sitting at 0.9, slightly ahead of both Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb at 0.7. R.A. Dickey, whose recent success has been a big factor in the Braves looking better of late, has upped his season total to 0.6. To put that in another way, many people laughed at the Padres for starting Jhoulys Chacin on opening day - a guy the Braves gave away for a rookie-level lefty project last season. Chacin currently has a 1.2 fWAR. Granted, WAR is not the end-all, be-all of numbers, but it's a pretty damning reality of the state of the Braves' rotation.

Catching Strength

One surprising thing about the Braves this year has come from the production behind the plate. While Tyler Flowers impressed in limited action last year, not a lot of people felt he would repeat the effort this season considering mediocre career numbers. Hardly anyone thought Kurt Suzuki would add much with the bat, either. The results so far speak for themselves. Of 30 major league teams, only the Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, and Astros have a higher fWAR from their catchers than Atlanta's 2.3. The Braves rank third in catcher batting average, second in OBP, and ninth in slugging. The .352 wOBA ranks fourth while the 115 wRC+ is good for fifth. Atlanta has been blessed with tremendous catcher production over the years. Since 2000, they've twice reached 6 fWAR from the backstop position. While that is far too high of a goal right now, this year's unit has a shot for a 4 fWAR season - which would be the seventh such season since 2000 by Atlanta's catchers. Not too shabby for a combined $4.5 million in base salary.

The Other Freeman

I still don't know what to think of Sam Freeman. In a way, I like him more now after his ERA has been rising than I did before. And yes, this is a strange time to bring up Freeman after giving up three runs against the Nationals before the break and surrendering a home run by Paul Goldschmidt yesterday to blow a lead. Is Freeman a shutdown reliever? No. But can he be a useful arm? His 57.5% groundball rate, 3.80 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA suggests that he can. The problem is that those numbers might be soft. Throughout his career, he's carried reverse splits in parts of six major league seasons. Against righties, he's been a bit more useful with a .221/.323/.300 slash and a 20% strikeout rate. On the other hand, lefties have handled him with a .261/.377/.390 slash while striking out 24% of the time. This year, he's been effective in a LOOGY role with a .212/.281/.288 slash against lefties and a 30% strikeout rate. It's righties he can't get out (.397 opposing OBP). Is small sample size the reason for this? My gut says yeah, but relievers are a strange breed. Their numbers can fluctuate one way or the other. Until Freeman proves his career rate is more accurate and his left-hand split climbs, you have to relegate him to LOOGY time. However...it might already be doing that. Since June 1, the last 35 lefties he's faced have as many hits as they do strikeouts - ten. His righty split isn't all that good either (.275/.370/.350, 46 batters faced). I hear that A.J. Minter guy is coming along, though...

Snitker: The Non-Manager

One of the most unnerving things about Brian Snitker is how the game manages him, not the other way around. A questionable bullpen that has allowed the third most runs-per-game would likely prompt a manager to make a lot of bullpen moves. That's compounded by a rotation that often struggles to avoid big innings. However, Snitker has gone to the pen 286 times - about the league average. That's not in itself a terrible thing - you don't want to burn out your relievers, after all. But under Snitker, Atlanta really plays up bullpen roles over strategy. Get six innings out of your starter and then follow the flow chart. Are you losing? Go with your young and unproven arms for one-to-two innings a piece. Are you winning? Go to Jose Ramirez in the seventh, Arodys Vizcaino in the eighth, and Jim Johnson in the ninth? Tied and on the road? Jason Motte/Ian Krol in the seventh followed by Ramirez and Vizcaino. Wait until you have the lead for Jim Johnson. You can bet he's lost without Vizcaino and Motte right now. There's little-to-no strategy involved here and the numbers point to that. Atlanta relievers are tied for the third fewest outings with runners on base. That means they often come in with the bases empty - typically to start a frame. They've thrown the second-fewest multiple-inning outings (1.1 ING and above) and are a bit below-the-NL average in outings of fewer than three outs (i.e. specialists). They also have the second-smallest average outs-per-game. Those numbers suggest that Snitker expects his relievers to be one-inning guys in assigned roles. Good managers make decisions based on the needs of the game. Snitker manages like he's still in the minor leagues. Give your starters innings and reach a pitch count. Give your relievers an inning and go to the next. There's little thinking involved and the Braves have suffered as a result.

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Teenage Pop

Ronald Acuna posted a .895 OPS at Double-A. That's not just outstanding, but enough to convince the Atlanta Braves to promote him to Triple-A. He's only 19 years-old and that won't change until a week before Christmas. He'll have over 30 games in the International League before the end of the season - should he not get promoted before that. It's rare enough to be in your Age-19 season in the International League and that alone is an accomplishment. Last year's only teenage rookie position player was Acuna's new teammate, Ozzie Albies. But what would happen if Acuna not only stayed in the IL as a teenager but produced at a similar clip as his pre-AAA days? For starters, let's add some context using one of the game's best players - and the MLB.com twitter account's favorite player - Bryce Harper. Over a 21-game run in 2012 as a 19-year-old, the man with the hair hit just .243/.325/.365. It's difficult to find teenagers who received at least a 30-game attempt in the International League, let alone find successful ones. The last one to post an OPS over .800 as a teenager in the International League - brace yourself, friends - was Melvin Upton Jr. Back in 2004, the 19-year-old hit .311/.411/.519. By the way, when our old buddy was doing that, Acuna was seven.

Cuban Imports Raking - When Healthy

The Dominican Summer League Braves have struggled this season with one of the weaker pitching staffs and a just as weak offensive club averaging 4.31 runs per game in a league in which teams average 4.95 per. They are not being helped by the absence of Juan Carlos Negret, who hasn't played since June 30. I am not sure for the reason, but Negret was hitting a robust .306/.451/.528 over 19 games with 11 extra-base hits and eight steals before disappearing. Recent addition and fellow Cuban-born outfielder, Henry Quintero, could help fill the void. Over his first three games, Quintero went 4-for-8 with three doubles and a triple. Unfortunately, he left that third game after being hit by a pitch to lead off the first and hasn't played in the team's last three games. With the DSL offense slumping, it would be big for them to get either one of these Cuban imports back.

Danville's Pitching Staff Holding Up

With most of last year's top picks already in Rome and this year's top two drafted arms in the GCL, the Danville pitching staff could have been in line for a bad season. So far, it's held up to post the second-best ERA in the Appalachian League and its 4.05 ERA is nearly 60-points below the league-average. It hasn't been all good as the shoddy defense has led to 27 unearned runs through 22 games. Still, Danville has looked pretty decent despite the lack of star power. Kyle Muller is the currently ranked prospect with the D-Braves, placing 16th in our recent Midseason Top 50. He's K'd 26 in 23 innings while walking ten over five starts.

The Two-Minute Braves

Braves Radio Net reporter Kevin McAlpin tweeted this Friday night:

Former #Braves legend Mike Aviles leads off the 7th for the Fish and is hit by a pitch.

— Kevin McAlpin (@KevinMcAlpin) May 13, 2017

I followed with a tweet of my own:

@KevinMcAlpin Who had a better run as a Brave - Carlos Quentin or Aviles?

— Tommy Poe (@WalkOffWalk1) May 13, 2017

But I was only beginning a cascade of responses

@WalkOffWalk1 @KevinMcAlpin Ryan Howard

— Outliers (@b_outliers) May 13, 2017

@b_outliers @WalkOffWalk1 @KevinMcAlpin Bronson Arroyo.

— Statline Scout (@tpierce625) May 13, 2017

@b_outliers @WalkOffWalk1 Bronson Arroyo

— Kevin McAlpin (@KevinMcAlpin) May 13, 2017

@KevinMcAlpin @b_outliers @WalkOffWalk1 Brian Matusz

— Dayton from Nebraska (@BravesAmerica) May 13, 2017

It got me thinking - what would a team of "Two-Minute Braves" look like. The name simply refers to players who were with the organization for all of what seemed like two minutes. And because I clearly have nothing better to do, here I go down this rabbit hole.

Let's set some groundrules. To be eligible, the player must have been the property of the Braves, but never played for them. We'll make an exception for a short, un-noteworthy stint in the minors, but that's it. So with that out of the way, here are the Two-Minute Braves.

Catcher

Though his major league career includes just eight seasons, Dave Nilsson is one of the better success stories in baseball. The Brewers signed him out of Australia back in 1987 and five years later, he was in the majors. Always a good player with nice power, he developed over his final four years to bat .297/.375/.488 while becoming the first Australian to play in the All-Star Game in 1999. But his time in the majors was done. With the Summer Olympics coming to Sydney in 2000, Nilsson wanted to play for his country and no team was willing to give him time off during the summer to do so. He did attempt a comeback in 2004, signing with the Braves and playing 16 games with Richmond, but only had two extra-base hits before retiring from the American game for good. He did continue to play in Australia, though, and helped the Aussies win a Silver Medal in the '04 Olympics.

First Base
The latest addition to this team is Ryan Howard, who @Outliers above nominated. There's not much more to say about The Big Piece of Mediocrity at this point. The former MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Silver Slugger had a tremendous peak but hit .226/.292/.427 over the final five years.

Second Base

Buffa Lutheran (CC-BY-SA 2..0) via Wikipedia Commons

It looked like - and basically was - the end of the line for Wally Backman. A regular fixture of the Mets during the 80's, Backman had moved from the Twins-to-Pittsburgh-to-Philly over the previous four seasons heading into 1993 when the Braves inked him in late-January. He spent the spring with the Braves, but with Mark Lemke, Rafael Belliard, Jeff Blauser, and Bill Pecota in the mix, Backman found playing time sparse and was cut before the season. He signed with the Mariners next and played his final ten games of his career out west. As brief as his time was with the Braves and Mariners, he later had an even shorter run with the Diamondbacks - this time as their manager. Four days after being announced as their top guy after the '04 season was concluded, he was sacked for a string of legal worries, including domestic violence and drunk driving.

Shortstop
Sometimes, you just need a contract to facilitate a deal. Over the last couple of seasons, the Braves have used their financial flexibility to help deals happen and Mike Aviles is a prime example of the Braves doing so. He was picked up last August with Kade Scivicque in the Erick Aybar trade. It was all about the money as five days later, he was officially released. This weekend, he was promoted back to the bigs and in a twist of fate, his first games of 2017 came against his old buddies - the Braves.

Third Base
You take a chance on power and in Mat Gamel, the Braves were hoping for the best. Gamel was one of baseball's top prospects back in 2009. Baseball America named him the #34th best prospect in baseball. He would go on to bash eleven homers over 75 games in Triple-A while adding five more in the majors with a .242/.338/.422. But due to injuries, a hole in his swing, and more injuries, the stout left-handed hitter would not be able to establish himself in the bigs and played just 43 games in the majors over the next three seasons. The Cubs grabbed him after 2013, but he became a free agent shortly after and the Braves came calling. A few days into camp, though, the Braves released Gamel. He made a comeback bid in 2015 first with the Yankees and then with two Atlantic League stops, but failed to impress.

The Outfield

Keith Allison (CC BY SA2.0) via Flickr

I mentioned Carlos Quentin in my tweet so unsurprisingly, he makes my outfield. Quentin had a solid, though injury-shortened, six-year run between 2008 and 2013 in which he slashed .260/.356/.503. Things hit bottom in 2014 and with a season left on his contract, the Padres were anxious to cut bait. Meanwhile, the Braves were trying to get rid of their own salary issues with a closer making too much moolah on a rebuilding team (Craig Kimbrel) and an outfielder who forgot how to hit (Melvin Upton Jr.). The reason for Quentin's inclusion in the deal had everything to do with cash - in that, his contract was just as good as cash. When teams swap significant amounts of cash in deals, the baseball commissioner has to agree to the exchange. Rather than have a hold-up hours before the 2015 opener, the Braves took on Quentin's contract in lieu of sending $8M the Padres way to dump him themselves. A little more than a week later, the Braves cut Quentin. He's since spent a little time in the Mariners' minor league system and tried (and failed) to make the Twins and Red Sox rosters the last two springs.

Gary Matthews Jr. clearly had talent when the Braves picked him up off waivers following the '03 season. Sure, he was a lifetime .242/.324/.371 hitter at the time who had already bounced around five different organizations, but Matthews had flashed some potential with 14 homers in '01 and a .354 OBP and 15 steals the following year. He just needed somewhere to stick around. That was not the 2004 Braves. Atlanta opened the year with Chipper Jones in left, Andruw Jones in center, and J.D. Drew in right. Eli Marrero and DeWayne Wise helped to provide depth. By that point, Matthews had already been released. Chipper would last just two weeks before his first trip to the DL. Another trip to the trainers for Chipper, and Mark DeRosa's struggles at third, would open up left field, but since Matthews had already moved on, it was Chuck Thomas who took advantage. Meanwhile, Matthews landed in Texas and would excel over a three-year stint in Arlington. But Thomas helped the Braves get Tim Hudson so...winning.

My final outfielder for this group is Zoilo Almonte. One of the first signings of the Holy John Trinity regime, the belief was that Almonte would pair with Jonny Gomes to make a fine platoon. At least, I thought so. Instead, he looked awful in spring training and despite being gifted a major league deal, Almonte couldn't beat out non-roster invitees like Eric Young Jr. and Kelly Johnson. Rather than accept a minor league demotion, the outfielder wanted to be released and the Braves did just that. Almonte missed most of 2015 until winter ball and has settled into a big basher role in the Mexican League.

Designated Hitter
What? We might need one. Enter Russell Branyan, a Paul Bunyon-looking corner infielder from Warner Robbins, GA. Branyan was supposed to be yet another weapon the mid-to-late 90's Indians developed and he did blast 36 HR between 2000-01, but when he wasn't sending majestic moonshots into the atmosphere, he was making a lot of outs. The Indians sent him to the Reds midway through 2002 and after a year-and-a-half, the Reds non-tendered him. In early February of 2004, Atlanta signed him. At the time, the Braves had the rookie Adam LaRoche at first base with Julio Franco. They also had an opening in left field which the aforementioned Gary Matthews Jr. failed to secure. Branyan didn't make the squad and after a forgetful eleven-game run in Richmond, the Braves sent him to back to the Indians. He would play through 2014 and did hit 194 major league homeruns during his 14-year career.

Left-Handed Starter

By Ed Schipul [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

There was a time in the spring of 2015 where Wandy Rodriguez looked like he was beginning to put it back together. After a six-year run through 2013 with almost a thousand innings, over 800 strikeouts, and a decent 3.80 FIP ended with a release in 2014 following six ugly starts, Rodriguez came to Atlanta with a good chance to make the roster and hold down the fifth spot. Unfortunately, the inept Eric Stults was pitching just a bit better and the Braves kept him and cut Rodriguez. Both pitchers would play in 2015 and neither were very good - though Rodriguez's 4.33 FIP was a good run less than Stults.

Right-Handed Starter
While many of the players on this list were guys the Braves took a chance on only to watch them fail, Bronson Arroyo is a bit different. An innings-eater and nothing more, Arroyo had signed a big deal to join the Diamondbacks after eight years in Cincinnati. The typically durable righty made 14 starts before needing Tommy John surgery. By June of 2015, he was a year deep into his rehab and hopeful to pitch later that summer. That's when he found out he was headed to Atlanta. Or, at least the bulk of his remaining $15M due to him was going to Atlanta. The Braves had bought a first-round pick from the previous year's draft in the form of Touki Toussaint. All it cost them was Philip Gosselin and Arroyo's contract. Whether or not Arroyo would have ever thrown a pitch for Atlanta is debatable and also moot as a month later, he was included in the often-criticized Hector Olivera trade. He would never play for the Dodgers either. This spring, he resurfaced for the Reds and the now 40-year-old is in their starting rotation.

Left-Handed Reliever
In late May of last year, the Braves continued to find inventive ways to add draft choices. Packaging minor league arms Brandon Barker and Trevor Belicek together, the Braves acquired Brian Matusz and the #76th overall pick of last June's draft. Matusz, a former big prospect, had found his niche with the Orioles as a left-handed reliever. That was until the wheels came off early in 2016 for the southpaw. After the trade, the Braves quickly cut Matusz and he made one appearance - a start - with the Cubs last year. He gave up a half-dozen runs in three innings. He's now in the Diamondbacks system and still struggling to recapture his old glory. Belicek finished the year with the O's, but was cut at the end of spring training a few months ago. Barker's still around for them and pitching in Double-A. Finally, that draft choice was used on Brett Cumberland, who has one of the most interesting slash lines in baseball so far - .191/.433/.353.

Right-Handed Reliever
Preston Wilson, Warren Morris, and Kris Benson were a few of the top rookies in 1999 in the National League, but the winner of the Rookie of the Year award that season was a reliever. Twenty-two-year-old Scott Williamson, a righty who went to an All-Star Game just two years after being picked out of the ninth round. A starter in the minors, Williamson fulfilled a variety of roles for the '99 Reds. He shared closing duties with Danny Graves, saving 19 to Graves' 27. He was also a setup reliever and even long reliever, logging 93.1 innings over 62 games. He K'd 107 that season. He would pitch parts of four more seasons with the Reds, flashing excellence and briefly appearing as a starter. He also wore down due to injury. In 2003, Williamson was traded to the Red Sox which began an ever-increasing collection of jerseys as Williamson played for many cities - never for very long. After failing to make the Giants bullpen in '08, the Braves took a chance. Considering that year's bullpen relied on Jeff Bennett and Blaine Boyer to each throw 70 games, they needed all the help they could. Williamson, though, struggled over 15 games and was released. He would continue to pitch through 2011 with the last three years of his career in independent ball. He hung 'em up after 2011, four years after his last appearance in the bigs.

Special Hall of Fame Section
I've previously wrote about these three situations and didn't want to include them as members of this squad, but they are worth a mention.

First, for about a month in 1943, Lefty Gomez was a member of the Boston Braves. One of the most beloved Yankees of his time, Gomez was in the twilight of his career when the Braves bought him off the Bronx Bombers. The general manager at the time - Bob Quinn - had an odd connection to Gomez. His son was dating the cousin of Gomez's wife. Gomez spent a month on the bench - never getting into a game - before being replaced by one of the pitchers he had been mentoring.

Four years later, the Braves lost Hoyt Wilhelm in the minor league draft. Didn't know Wilhelm had been a Brave? That's okay - he barely was. When he was 25, his contract was purchased by the Boston Braves. They quickly lost him a month later in the minor league draft. I still don't understand how, but I'm betting it was an oversight.

Finally, let's move to 1966. With the draft split up to allow for both a summer and winter draft, the Braves selected Tom Seaver in the January section of the draft. A rising junior at USC, Seaver had been a tenth rounder the previous June, but chose not to sign with the Dodgers. The Braves took their chances and a few weeks later, they were in agreement on a $40,000 bonus to sign the righty. But there was a rule. You couldn't sign a player who played for a school that had already begun their season. USC's regular season hadn't begun, but their exhibition season had. The Braves were slapped with a fine and their contract with the righty was voided. Seaver had signed a contract, though, and was not ineligible to return to USC. So, a solution to the mess was reached. His $40K contract would be given to whatever team was willing to pay in and won a lottery. Three teams stepped up and it was the Mets whose name was picked out of a literal hat.

And that's my team. Do you think I missed a player who was a better fit? Let me know in the comments.

Thursday Throwback - Reed Johnson

Sometimes, moves just don't pan out like they ought to. That was the case of the 2012 midseason trade that sent Reed Johnson, along with Paul Maholm, to the Braves. The trade was born out of a move that didn't happen and ultimately, failed to deliver despite looking like a good deal on paper for Frank Wren. Even when Wren made the right move, it just didn't seem to work.

But long before that trade, Reed Johnson was born a few weeks before Christmas in 1976. A product of Riverside, California, Johnson was a star in both baseball and soccer in high school. His success there landed him a coveted scholarship opportunity with Cal-State Fullerton, where he was an Academic All-American and posted strong offensive numbers as a catalyst for the Titans' offense. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson played well enough during his college years to move into the 17th round of the draft, which is where the Blue Jays took him. The '99 draft wasn't very good for the Jays. They took Alex Rios with their first round pick and he did develop into a decent player, but only three other players made it to the majors, including Johnson, the second-best player taken that year by Toronto.

After a summer of adjusting to pro ball, Johnson became an overnight prospect in 2000. He spent the year at two different A-ball stops and slashed .298/.420/.479, flashing plus-plus plate discipline and enough power and speed to be a very intriguing prospect. In 2001, this time at Double-A, Johnson became a name to watch. Spending the year with the Tennessee Smokies, Johnson slashed .314/.384/.451. The walk total was a bit of a letdown, but Johnson filled out his baseball card with 29 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, and 42 steals. The Southern League All-Star looked like he was a great late-round find for the Blue Jays and a player that could help them very soon.

After missing most of 2002 with injury, Johnson worked his way into the picture for the big league club in 2003. After opening the year in the minors, Johnson would soon establish himself as a major league performer with a strong summer. In 114 games in the majors, Johnson hit .294 with 10 homers and a .353 on-base percentage. The Jays had opened the year with super sub Frank Catalanotto in right field, but an injury to Shannon Stewart opened left for Catalanotto and allowed Johnson to slide into right field. Bobby Kielty would later join the team, cutting into Johnson's playing time, but Johnson proved his worth by being the Blue Jays' most used leadoff hitter.

For the next two years, Johnson was the regular left fielder for the Jays and was unspectacular in his job before a breakout 2006 campaign saw Johnson hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 homers. He led the AL in getting hit by a pitch that season as well. However, his success was short-lived. During an injury-marred 2007 season, he hit just .236 over 79 games. Johnson struggled the next spring as well and with the Jays feeling a roster crush, Toronto surprisingly released Johnson as spring training was nearing its end. The five-year pro would not remain available for long as he landed with the Cubs. A bench bat and platoon player, Johnson was a perfect fit in Chicago. He OPS'd .778 his first season with the Cubbies before slashing .255/.330/.412 during an injury-shortened 2009 season.

Johnson took his talents out west and played for the Dodgers in 2010, which wasn't much of a trip from the city he was born (Riverside). He struggled with in Los Angeles, though, and lasted just one year before returning to the Cubs in 2011. Like he had never left, his success returned.

That brings us to the 2012 season. The Cubs were in the first year of their rebuild under Theo Epstein. The former Red Sox mastermind had just hired Jed Hoyer to be their General Manager. That season, the Cubs were breaking in young Anthony Rizzo at first base (who, interestingly enough, Hoyer had dealt to the Cubs as the Padres' GM) and Chicago was trying to add young talent to the mix to build what eventually would become a winner. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were trying to get back to the playoffs after their 2011 collapse during then-manager Fredi Gonzalez's first year at the helm. The Cubs and Braves seemed like a perfect match and a week before the trading deadline, a deal seemed imminent. However, neither Johnson, nor lefthander Paul Maholm, were part of it.

Atlanta was desperate to add a starter to their team that they could count on. With Jair Jurrjens looking like a lost cause, the Braves had turned to Ben Sheets. 25 year-old Tommy Hanson was struggling and Brandon Beachy, also 25, had made just 13 starts before going down with injury. They still had Tim Hudson while Mike Minor was improving, as a team with playoff aspirations, Atlanta did not have the kind of rotation that would be able to compete against the big boys of the National League. Atlanta thought they had found their man in Ryan Dempster. The former closer had been excellent to begin 2012 with a 2.11 ERA through his first 15 starts. While Dempster wasn't an ace, he was the kind of bulldog starter that gave his manager and general manager a bit more confidence than hoping Sheets could make it through the summer or that Hanson could turn the corner.

Wren and Hoyer found the right mix of players that would make the deal happen. Atlanta would send young Randall Delgado to the Cubs, which would finally separate the four pitchers of the future (Minor, Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino). Another prospect would head to Chicago as well and the Braves would get Dempster. One little problem, though. With over 14 years of experience, including eight full seasons with the Cubs, Dempster qualified as a 10-5 player and could nix any deal. Dempster was open to a trade, but preferred to head out west where he could join his good buddy Ted Lilly and the Dodgers. While Dempster weighed his options - and definitely held out hope for a move to the Dodgers - the Braves grew agitated. All the perimeters were agreed upon and the deal had been leaked out to the public. Wren set a deadline for Dempster, but the right-hander refused to make a decision as he held out hope Los Angeles would step up. Atlanta ultimately took themselves out of the process rather than watch Dempster play the part of the girl with a date to the Prom all lined up, but is still hoping to go with the high school quarterback rather than the dude that actually wants to be with her. Not that I know anything about that...

The Braves still wanted a pitcher, but could not find a Dempster-like arm on the trade market. Instead, they called Hoyer up and asked about Maholm. A long time Pirate, Maholm had joined the Cubs the previous offseason and he was also having a good season. Not a great one like Dempster, but would give the Braves a serviceable left-hand arm for their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves did find their front-of-the-rotation arm by moving Kris Medlen into the rotation.  Coming along for the ride with Maholm and some bags of cash was Johnson. The Braves were stacked in the outfield with rookie Jason Heyward joining Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, but the prospect of adding a right-handed bat like Johnson to pair with Eric Hinske coming off the bench was a great fit. The Braves still broke up their four previously untouchable arms by sending Arodys Vizcaino to the Cubs in the deal along with reliever Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino was on the mend after having Tommy John surgery that spring.

Johnson got into 43 games down the stretch for the Braves and hit .270. He would get fairly regular time with Prado moving all over the field and helped to give the Braves their first real backup option to Bourn during the 2012 season. Both Prado and Bourn would be gone the next winter and would be replaced by Justin and Melvin "B.J" Upton Jr. Johnson, a free agent, liked Atlanta enough to return for a second year. He missed all of August with Achilles tendinitis, but missed even more time because Johnson was not a regular in the mix for the Braves even with the failures of the elder Upton. Instead, Johnson took a back seat to Jordan Schafer, who had returned after being claimed on waivers, and rookie Evan Gattis, who occasionally played left field to get his bat into the lineup more often. Johnson received five fewer plate appearances than Gerald Laird during the 2013 season and Johnson struggled to connect the bat to the ball with any authority.

During his year-and-a-half with the Braves, Johnson hit .256/.308/.332 with one homer, a pinch-hit two-run shot off former Braves farmhand Todd Redmond - then a member of Johnson's first team, the Jays. Johnson would struggle during a 2014 season spent as a reserve in Miami and continued his tour through the NL East with a stop in Washington next. A torn tendon in his left calf limited him to just 17 games with the Nats. He returned to DC the following year, but failed to make the roster coming out of camp last spring. I do not know if he's given up the dream of playing baseball again or not, but at 40 years-old, it seems unlikely that he'll continue his career.

His time with the Braves was short and ultimately uneventful. In the end, like many of Wren's deals, it just never worked like it should have. Of course, the Braves ended up re-acquiring Arodys Vizcaino from this deal so it cost precious little for Atlanta - even if it wasn't the deal they wanted.

Previous Throwbacks...
Mike Mordecai (1994-97)
David Ross (2009-12)
Ryan Langerhans (2002-03, 2005-07)

...or view ALL of them.

Braves Need to Consider Dumping Markakis

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I despise the label "professional hitter." Aren't they all? Even Julio Teheran is a professional hitter since he gets paid to do it. And even if you roll your eyes at taking the literal meaning of the phrase, it's an entirely misapplied and pointless phrase that is often handed out as a consolation prize.

One Brave who receives the phrase is Nick Markakis. He is a career .290 hitter so I guess it's not the worst example. Nevertheless, even if Markakis is a "professional hitter" on a team that struggles to hit, the Braves ought to seek out a team that needs more "non-amateur batters." If Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo is to be believed, the Royals and Phillies might be interested. If they are, the Braves should be doing whatever they can to trade the right-fielder there.

It's not that Markakis is terrible. Granted, his fWAR has traveled south of zero this season, but he's a better hitter than he has shown so far and when he gets going on a hot streak, he'll have that WAR back over one in no time. The problem is that it won't go much higher. The other problem is the same problem that has been attached to Markakis since he signed with the Braves. Does he really even fit what this team is trying to do?

This is the right-fielder's Age-32 year. The smart money says that we have seen the best of Markakis already and can only expect a decline or stagnation if we are lucky. Markakis, for his part, has added some of the best walk rates of his career to supplement the lost power, but can the Braves expect more than they got last season (.296/.370/.376)? And let's be honest - Markakis didn't sign here with the expectation that the Braves would go belly-up and not even put together a competent ballclub. When he came to the Braves, they still had Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, Andrelton Simmons, and had just added Shelby Miller. Sure, there were holes, but Markakis was a better match for that team. He's a complimentary player after all. He can help a team not have a weakness where he plays, but he won't do much more.

Let's not forget that this is Year 2 of a 4-year contract that runs through 2018. The Braves should be better in 2017, though it's unlikely they put it all together in one year to go from league laughingstock-to-contenders. 2018 is a much more reasonable expectation, though even it requires some of these young players to "get it" pretty quickly. It took the Royals' young nucleus time to start producing up to expectations after all. Markakis will be around for *maybe* one good year for the Braves and by that time, he'll be 34. He's a nice role model for the youngsters and a hard worker who can show the ropes to the kids, but so is Kelly Johnson or any number of veterans that have been around for awhile in the majors. Those type of players typically get one-year pacts for $2-$5 million, not 4-year, $44M.

Markakis might be a fit for a team trying to win right now. I say "might" because if I'm that team, he's not a target for me. Still, Markakis might make sense for a young team under the leadership of a traditional mindset of grabbing a #2 hitter with excellent bat control. Markakis is a constant. What you get might not excite you much, but he gives a team some leeway. He won't embarrass you in right field, though his range makes him a better fit for left. His power is non-existent partly because he doesn't pull the ball anymore, but he'll likely post a good average with a strong on-base. Those qualities fit a team with a hole, not a team looking for a difference maker. They certainly don't fit a rebuilding team.

If Atlanta receives an offer for Markakis, they ought to seriously consider it. If the other team will take on all of the remaining salary with no added salary beyond this year coming back for the Braves, done deal. If the Braves have to cover some salary, a prospect exchange can be considered. Either way, Markakis is not Chris Johnson or Melvin Upton Jr., two salary dumps by the Braves over the last 14 months. Markakis is still useful for one thing. If there is a team out there entertaining the thought of adding Markakis, Atlanta better be ready to pounce. Markakis makes a terrible Braves team a tiny bit better in 2016 and could help improving Braves' ballclubs in 2017 and 2018 be a wee bit better as well. However, consider how much better the Braves could be if they re-purpose the $21M remaining on Markakis' deal after this season.

Trading Markakis makes a bad team likely worse in 2016, but does that really matter? The Braves would have to go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way to finish 81-81. While they did that, they would sacrifice at least a dozen spots in the 2017 draft and still have an aging and replacement-level right fielder. They might not be any better at all with Markakis (they haven't set the world on fire with him after all) so it might be a moot point, but they could be better in 2017 and 2018 and have added payroll flexibility.

Signing Markakis in the winter of 2014-15 didn't make a lot of sense then. Keeping him if other teams want him now? That makes zero sense. If another team sees a better fit, make it happen, John Coppolella.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Craig Kimbrel Deal

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash

The Trade
Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton to the Padres for Cameron Maybin, Matt Wisler, Carlos Quentin, Jordan Paroubeck, and a 2015 draft choice (Austin Riley). I looking at those leaving and coming at this blog and a deeper look over at About.com.

The Rationale
A month ago, as I went over the Justin Upton trade, I wrote this: "(A.J.) Preller could say he held out and didn't give the Braves the pitcher they really wanted - Matt Wisler. Of course, that would change when Preller got so desperate to put a bow on his first offseason, but we'll get to that deal later." Welcome to later. It's hard to decide what was the most surprising thing about this trade. That the Braves had moved Kimbrel, who we were told was untouchable? That the deal came hours before the season was set to begin? Or, if you were like me, was it that the Braves found a team so desperate - so foolish - to take on an additional $50 million in payroll just to get an elite closer?

Jim McIssac | Getty

A lot of people hated this trade, but not for its impact on the Braves team so much as losing yet another homegrown, popular player. Sure, losing the despised elder Upton and his contract helped matters, but Kimbrel was loved in Atlanta who had broken the franchise record for saves before he turned 27. He was the last remaining piece of the super successful O'Ventbrel with southpaws Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty. He was our chosen one who sat in a bullpen in Los Angeles while Fredi Gonzalez arbitrarily counted the amount of outs Kimbrel was "good for" even as the 2013 season went down in flames.

But even the greatest closer in franchise history only throws 60-70 innings. Closers are overvalued because of their mystique. Was Kimbrel overpaid? Not according to the market, but was he too expensive for the Braves? Absolutely. He was about to enter Year 2 of his 4 year, $41M contract with a team option that could increase it to $52M. The Braves saw a chance to clear the books and while they stuck with the company line that they loved Kimbrel and wouldn't trade him, even they saw future payrolls and wondered if Kimbrel was worth it.

Getting rid of Upton just made the exchange easier. A big red mark on Frank Wren's time in Atlanta, Upton had been offered $75M over five years to come to Atlanta despite a .255 career batting average and .298 OBP in his walk year with the Rays. The Braves basically put $75M on red during roulette. They would either come out of it looking like roses or things would go about as bad as you could imagine.

Of course, it went the latter. In two seasons, Upton slashed .198/.279/.314 with 21 HR, 32 SB, and 324 strikeouts. The Braves were desperate to find a taker for the $46.5M left on his contract. The Cubs flirted with the idea of sending Edwin Jackson to the Braves for Upton, but nothing materialized. It was a foregone conclusion that even if the Braves traded Upton, they would be taking on some, if not the majority of, the remaining salary.

But that's where the Padres stepped in. A.J. Preller had been nearly as active as the new Braves front office during the offseason. He had already traded for Justin Upton from the Braves while adding Wil Myers and Matt Kemp because defense is totally optional. With James Shields, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks also in place, Preller assumed he had built a juggernaut. He assumed very wrong, but as the season was about to open, he saw an opportunity to put a cherry on the top. Mr. Kimbrel. Sure, the Pads still had Joaquin Benoit, who was more than capable, but he was no Kimbrel. Plus, with Kimbrel, the bullpen would be much deeper. Sure, they would have to add the other Upton, but they already had a glut of outfielders, as the rest of the deal showed.

Getting rid of Maybin and Quentin cleared up things for the Padres, who also had Will Venable. With Melvin missing the first couple of months, it allowed the Padres plenty of time to work him in slowly while keeping Venable in a 4th outfielder role because their super duper outfield was, well, super duper. Of course, where Melvin fit in was confusing, but KIMBREL!

Maybin was a bust in San Diego after signing a long-term deal when he first became arbitration-eligible. He had played in 109 games over the previous two years and had a .665 OPS over four years with the Padres. They didn't have a place for him and were glad to shed his salary. Quentin's inclusion was weird because the Braves released him soon after, but the latter was part of the plan. Quentin had no-trade protection and wanted to get the freedom to try to jumpstart his career elsewhere, preferably with a team that played 95% of their games with a DH. My friend Bryce theorized the inclusion of Quentin was so that the deal would get done without the need for commissioner approval rather than the Braves packaging money to help pay for the Padres to release Quentin themselves.

Paroubeck was an interesting prospect in the long-term. Incredibly raw with athletic ability off the charts, Paroubeck was a second-rounder in 2013, who didn't make his debut until the following season. The production was there, but again, as interesting as he was, it was like adding another draft choice to the organization considering how little he had played and how young he was. Speaking of draft choices, we didn't know it at the time, but the 41st selection of the 2015 draft would quickly pay dividends.

As for the guy the Braves had wanted for Melvin's older brother earlier in the offseason, Wisler was ticketed for a return trip to El Paso before the trade. It's where he landed the previous spring and after sulking because he felt he deserved a look over the pitchers the Padres kept, Wisler was demoted back to AA to try to jumpstart his season. Overall, he had finished with a 5.01 ERA in AAA. Even with that in mind, Baseball America ranked him the #34 prospect in baseball. He was one of just two Padres prospects ranked by BA, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com in the top 100 (Hunter Renfroe was the other).

Short-Term Results
The Padres remade their team and won three fewer games in doing so. Adding Kimbrel aided the pen, which was fairly good as a result. He struggled early (for him), but Kimbrel turned it on late. Homers were a bit of a problem, but a career-high rate in HR/FB may have been a bit flukish. It turns out to be his worse full season in the majors both in saves and xFIP/SIERA. However, Kimbrel's so damn good that having 39 saves, a 2.46 xFIP, and 2.21 SIERA is considered a down year. But the Padres learned what the Braves already were aware of - having a great closer is a luxery, but only makes a bad ballclub moderately better.

Of more interest was Melvin's resurgence. Sure, he was limited to just 87 games, but he slashed .259/.327/.429 with a 110 RC+. His last three years in Tampa averaged a 109 RC+ so that was impressive. I'm not sold on it continuing as Melvin's .348 BABIP was his highest since his 2007-08 days when he walked a lot and hit for a good average. That said, a pull rate that leaped over 50% might suggest that Upton's clunky approach at the plate was adjusted and gave him a better chance at getting around on balls, which led to a career-best line drive rate.

Just to touch on a few of the short-timers...Quentin caught on with the Mariners organization, but quickly decided that enough was enough and hung up his spikes at the ripe old age of just 32. Paroubeck was traded before he played a game in the organization. Nursing an injury, he was moved, along with Caleb Dirks, to the Dodgers on July 2 for an international bonus slot that helped the Braves sign their pair of high-priced international guys.

Now, to the meat. Maybin had a wonderful first half, but fell off the map in the second half, which led to a .267/.327/.370 final slash with 10 HR, 23 steals, and defensive metrics sour on him. He did play in 141 games after 109 the previous two seasons so that was a plus. His first half numbers were exciting, too. Who doesn't want .289/.356/.418 from your center fielder who, I wager, is better in the field that the -5.3 adjusted defensive rating Fangraphs gave him.

As for Wisler, there were both good and bad parts of his game this season. he remained a durable arm and threw 109 innings in the majors along with 65 in Gwinnett. Curiously, his strikeout rate fell from the 8.6 per nine rate he had been pulling before 2015 to a bit over 6 per nine. In addition, his xFIP and SIERA were not pretty (both around 5.00). While his late season starts look good, the results are not really supported in the numbers, though the same size is VERY VERY SMALL.

Finally, there is Riley, the prep pitcher who just wanted a chance to hit. The Braves gave him that chance and he smacked a dozen homers in 60 games. He has received some aggressive rankings since then (including #11 by me) and it might be premature for a guy who K'd a quarter of his plate appearances, but you just don't see many 18 year-olds brutalize the Appalachian League.

Long-Term Outlook
The Padres are on the hook for at least two more seasons of both Kimbrel and Melvin, though they have been rumored to be at least listening to offers on Kimbrel. And there in lies the accepted conundrum with Kimbrel. As good as he is, you still feel kind of dumb paying $24M for the next two innings for 130 innings. Granted, if you have an endless payroll, screw it. But for teams like the Padres and Braves, does paying that much money for so few actual innings make financial sense?

On the flipside, if Melvin keeps hitting, regardless with what happens with Kimbrel, the Padres will at least have that to hang their hat on. Yay...

Atlanta is stocked with veteran outfielders in 2016 and Maybin could be on the market, though I tend to think the Braves like the idea of letting Mallex Smith get a spring under the veterans, a few more months in Gwinnett to buy another pre-arbitration season, and bring up their hot prospect only after things clear up in Atlanta. It allows the Braves more depth to limit Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher's at-bats to keep their vesting options from triggering (which, if they produce, could help their trade value). I'm sure Atlanta will listen to offers on Maybin, but they need an upgrade to the roster to make a deal - not just more prospects.

The bigger picture rests on the arm of Wisler and the bat of Riley. Will Wisler clean up his game to become the middle-of-the-staff force many felt him capable of? It's definitely possible and if he makes that step in 2016, all the better. Atlanta could use the depth behind the projected rotation of Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, zombie Mike Minor, and...well, that's it. Meanwhile, power is a commodity that the Braves are short on and while Riley is a number of years away from likely getting into the picture, Atlanta could use his presence.

All in all, this deal might be the best one the Holy John Trinity made in their first year. Yeah, a certain Diamondbacks deal ranks very high, but this particular trade was a franchise changer. It moved bad contracts while only adding Maybin's affordable contract post-2015. It brought two big young players to the system and it gave the Braves a chance to move beyond the awfulness of watching Melvin suck.