Does Jon Lester Make Sense for the Braves?

The news was a little surprising, especially given the timing of what else transpired this week. Jon Lester, the long-time Red Sox and brief Oakland Athletic, will meet, or depending on when you read this, have met with the Atlanta Braves this week about a possible contract.

Wait, but aren't we rebuilding?

Yeah, I thought so, too, but the Braves have been pretty open that the future is hardly set in stone. They could just as easily reload for 2015 or build for 2017. Signing a pitcher like Lester would appear to satisfy both of those needs, though it's questionable how realistic that is. The Braves have already invested $71.4M into eight players for 2015 with seven players still to deal with in arbitration, though at least three of them are likely to be non-tendered. Using arbitration estimates from MLBTR for the four I could see the Braves bringing back, plus minimum salaries for 10 more players, the Braves are looking at roughly $86-$88M invested out of the possible $110-$114M payroll. Is Lester even financially feasible? We'll get back to that.

Lester does make sense for the Braves and really any team who is seeking improvement, because the lefty is coming off his best season, isn't really that old (2015 will be his age-31 season), and has been remarkably durable (hasn't made fewer than 31 starts in any of his full seasons). Despite this, he won't even cost a team a first-round selection since he was traded in the final year of his contract and wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer. That would appear to be one reason the Braves would have more interest in Lester over the other big two starters on the market, Max Scherzer and James Shields. After all, it would be counter-productive for the new front office team to scream about the lack of minor league depth and lose another first rounder via a free agent signing.

Will the Braves be buying high on a talent that has largely been good, but rarely great? Between 2011-13, Lester ranked 16th in fWAR, but just 60th in FIP. This paints the picture of a durable workhorse not unlike last year's high priced addition, Ervin Santana. But last year, Lester upped his K% to a quarter of all batters, something he hasn't accomplished since 2010. His BB% fell under 7% for the first time in his career to 5.4%. This led to personal lows in WHIP, FIP, and barely missing his lowest xFIP of his career. Can something explain this fluctuation of numbers or did Lester just get it as a 30 year-old? Well, he did basically scrap his change-up, a pitch he used over 10% of the time in 2012-13, and relied much more on his cutter and curveball, which were both strikeout pitches in 2014. It would appear likely that change could be replicated. Lester wasn't lucky last year and so his future success remains rather attainable even if his numbers in his contract year vs. the previous three seasons do give you a momentary pause.

Lester also makes sense because it would immediately turn the Braves pitching staff into one that could compete for a division. The Braves were able to compete until the end last season with Aaron Harang doing his best Houdini impression. Imagine what it could do with Lester and Julio Teheran headlining a staff with the young and electric Alex Wood, new acquisition Shelby Miller, and x-factor Mike Minor.

Having said that, this is where I start looking at why I'm not keen on targeting Lester. Pitching wasn't the problem last season and signing Lester won't lead to a better on-base percentage, more homers, and more runs. Having Jason Heyward would have helped, but something happened there. This is not to say that the Braves shouldn't seek out the services of another pitcher (Justin Masterson has been rumored) because clearly, starting pitching depth is an issue.

So, that gets us back to the financial side. Does signing Lester make sense? Let's look at the contract Lester is expected to seek this winter. While all of this is guesswork, I think it's reasonable to assume Lester is in line to break the bank in the coming weeks. Obviously, Lester won't be touching Clayton Kershaw money (7 years, $215M). Looking at more comparable offers, last winter, Masahiro Tanaka got $175M over seven years and last spring, Scherzer rejected a six year, $144M deal. Between those offers is Zach Greinke's $147M over six years. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of six years and $160M is reasonable for the market. Obviously, if Scherzer gets closer to $190M, Lester gets closer to Tanaka's deal. $160M over six years is an average of $26.7M. Sticker shock yet?

But wait, there's more. Since that kind of money would basically take up all of the Braves financial wiggle room for 2015, the Braves would have no room for error and they are still seeking out bench help, a possible stop-gap at second, and would marry themselves to the idea of Evan Gattis in left. On the flipside, Atlanta might look to move a couple of players to save some more cash, but doing so would mean the Braves would have to replace that player so are you really saving much? And what of 2016 when Justin Upton is a free agent and Gattis, Miller, and Wood are hitting arbitration? Granted, Dan Uggla will also be off the books. And when the Braves open the new park in 2017, at least $60M would be devoted to three players. Let's not even get into the mess of backloading a contract of this size.

And then there is Lester's age. If the going rate on free agent pitchers at the top tier of their profession is at least five years and Lester will pitch all of 2015 as a 31 year-old, just how long are you committing money to him and what kind of pitcher will he be at the end of the trade? I realize that you take risks with any long-term deal, but that is a lot of years and money to take a chance on a guy who might be a #3 or #4 by the time the deal is entering its final year.

Like many things, there are both positives and negatives. Who wouldn't want a pitcher of Lester's caliber pairing with Teheran for the rest of the decade? But does it make sense? I'm just not sold on that idea. Beyond the fact that the Heyward deal essentially says we aren't ready to compete and ignoring that the offense has only gotten worse since the end of the regular season, are we really going to invest roughly a quarter of next year's budget to one player? A player who has rarely been great?

Fortunately, this seems like the kind of the thing the Braves simply don't do. Sure, they flirt with the idea, but they ultimately shy away and try to make smaller and smarter signings.

Making Greinke Work

lol...I post this, turn on MLB Network, and they are reporting breaking news that Zack Greinke had been traded to the Angels.  So...this is mostly a waste.

So, from the majority of people I have in contact with, I've WAY too dramatic/pessimistic about Zack Greinke's impact on the team from what I said on my blog and at chopnation yesterday.  So, with that mind, let's rosterbate this out and fit Greinke.

July 28th, 2012: Atlanta sends Randall Delgado, Joey Terdoslavich, and Todd Cunningham to the Milwaukee Brewers for Zack Greinke.  I'm not sure it's enough, but we can quibble about that later.  I will concede that maybe Julio Teheran can be taken off the table from the Braves' side.  Milwaukee might want to deal Greinke before his scheduled start Sunday.

...a week later, Atlanta agrees to a 5 year, $102.5M contract with Greinke with a $5M signing bonus, half paid in 2012 and half paid opening day of 2013.  Now, that contract might be low.  I could be off on the total for up to $10M.  Anyway, the deal looks like this.  2013: 15.5M with $2.5M of the bonus, 2014: $21.75M, 2015: $21.75M, 2016: $21.75, 2017: $21.75.  I backloaded the deal a little so that the team would have more flexibility in 2013.

Moving on to the offseason, Atlanta has two players under contract once the season ends.  Zack Greinke and Dan Uggla = $28.7M (I'm ignoring the signing bonus for now). 

Options! Obviously, Chipper Jones' $7M club option won't be exercised since he's retiring.  Brian McCann's $12M option and Tim Hudson's $9M option, which are both of the club variety, will be exercised.  However, as my friend Bryce said, maybe the Braves can cut down on Huddy's option by extending him through 2014 with a two year deal for $12-$15M.  Jones did something similar a few years ago.  But for our purposes, the options will be exercised for McCann and Hudson for $21M, total, and puts the current payroll at $49.7M

Thinking Arby?  Atlanta has a lot of arbitration-eligible guys.  Martin Prado will probably double his $4.75M salary in the final year of arbitration with the season he's having.  Atlanta might be better off extending him to the tune of 3 years, $27M.  However, for now, let's settle at $8.75M as Atlanta plays hardball.  Eric O'Flaherty has not been as dominant, but will get a raise over his $2.75M salary to $3.5M.  Paul Janish...is it better to spend a million on him or another veteran infielder?  I don't want to bring in a lot of new guys so we will keep him around for a million, plus incentives.  The first-time arbitration guys are serious players, too.  Typically, teams try to lock up their young stud outfielders before arbitration.  Justin Upton, Grady Sizemore, Nick Markakis, and others were locked up either before their last pre-arbitration year or after the last pre-arbitration year (but before settling on a salary for that arbitration year).  Even if Atlanta does lock up Heyward, the first year of the deal will likely mimic his first arbitration year.  Adam Jones got $3.25M so I think Heyward should be in the same neighborhood.  $3.5M for Heyward.  Tommy Hanson is a tough one, but in his first year of arbitration, I'd say he would get near Heyward.  Let's put him at $3.25M.  Jonny Venters will get more than O'Flaherty did, but his struggles this year will be used to land at $2M.  Kris Medlen doesn't have a lot of reasonable comparisons, but we will put him at $1.5M, especially if he does move to the starting staff.  Old Lipsy Martinez might be arbitration eligible, but we will put him at $800K.  Am I missing anyone?  OHHH...Jair Jurrjens.  Yeah, non-tender, goodbye.  That gives us 12 players.  Total payroll at $74M.

Keeping Free Agents.  Love Michael Bourn, but the market is likely to overvalue him.  Not Carl Crawford overvalued, but overvalued.  We just can't devote roughly half of the left-over payroll to him.  See ya, Mike.  Matt Diaz?  Maybe a minor-league invite if this thumb issue keeps him out for the rest of the season.  But we will say goodbye for now.  Eric Hinske?  Not working, guy.  Jack Wilson and Chad Durbin?  Adios, guys.  That leaves the two significant free agents.  David Ross and Ben Sheets.  Provided Sheets continues to perform without any injury problems, I see him as an $8M guy in free agency.  He might love Atlanta and be thankful for the opportunity we gave him, but at this point, Atlanta is bargain shopping and Sheets just doesn't fit.  As for Rossy, it all depends on how much of a raise Ross wants from his $1.625M salary.  Two years ago today, he signed his extension.  Ross seems to love Atlanta and would provide us a veteran possibility for 2014 if McCann leaves.  He inks an incentive-laden deal that will pay him $2M a year for 2013 and 2014.  Total payroll at $76M.

Renewing Some Guys.  Atlanta may want to consider keeping costs low and try to buy out arbitration years for Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel.  Between those two, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor, I would say the Braves are committing around $2.15M just to keep them happy with over $500K rather than simply renewing their contracts.  We are at 17 players, though one is disabled.  Let's go ahead and average out $480K to get us to 30 players.  I realize that the major league roster is 25 players, but due to injuries, split contracts, and so forth, guys will ultimately get close to what I'm guessing even if the Braves add some players.  With that $6.24M added to the $2.15M from early, total payroll is at $84.39M.

Pre-Free Agency Roster
Starting Rotation - Greinke, Hudson, Hanson, Minor, Teheran/Medlen
Bullpen - Kimbrel, Venters, O'Flaherty, Martinez, Vizcaino, Avilan, Varvaro/Medlen
Catcher - McCann, Ross
Infield - Freeman, Uggla, Simmons, Prado, Janish, Pastornicky, Francisco
Outfield - Heyward, Durango, Constanza, Gartrell

Don't feel bad if you don't know the guys in the outfield.  With Prado moving to third to replace Jones and Bourn moving on to riches, the outfield becomes super thin.  I have seen zero from Francisco to believe he can be a legitimate option next year and he's a placeholder more than anything.

With about $10M left, Atlanta has serious questions in the outfield and needs at least two players, if not a better fourth outfielder.  Let's check the market and see what we can come up with.

Center field:  The free agency market for center fielders is dead after Bourn. B.J. Upton will likely be overpaid and Shane Victorino is a switch-hitter in name-only.  As much as I hate adding a left-hand bat to the equation...Atlanta sends Zeke Spruill (and maybe another piece) to the Twins for Denard Span.  A superb defender to replace Bourn, Span is a solid 3-4 WAR guy who, despite hitting left-handed, has an almost even split against left-handers as he does against right-handers.  The Twins have supposedly had Span on the market for awhile and might reallocate the money due to him ($4.75M in 2013, $6.5M in 2014, $9M club option in 2015 with a $500K buyout). 

Left field: Using Spruill to answer the problems in center gives the Braves one less trading piece for left field.  I'm keeping Gilmartin as my reserve starter in Gwinnett next year so he's off the market.  I'm thinking a platoon option might be my best bet.  To replace Matt Diaz, Jonny Gomes is signed for $1.25M.  He can't hit lefties so keep him away from them.  However, against righties, you can plop him into the middle of the order and let him rock the kasbah.  Meanwhile, I am thinking Angel Pagan does not have many suitors.  He's always been the opposite of Victorino in that even though he's a switch hitter, he historically is much better against right-handed pitchers.  $4M base salary for 2013, $6.5M team option for 2014.

Total payroll now sits at $94.39M.  I hate the bench, I'm nervous about the rotation, the bench is not improved, and I'm iffy on my pickups, but I did think that this is the kind of thing that could happen.  The bench could be improved by late spring pickups/surprises.  Still, God help this team if Hudson goes down.

Lineup - (against RH) - Span, Prado, Heyward, McCann, Uggla, Freeman, Simmons, Pagan
Lineup (against LH) - Span, Prado, Heyward, Gomes, McCann, Uggla, Freeman, Simmons

I guess it could work, though I still don't like it.  I'm not even going to get into the long-term picture just yet.

Is Zack Greinke Worth It? Please.

As the saga of Ryan Dempster has became an afterthought, Frank Wren reiterated yesterday that Atlanta has moved on and is "looking for impact pitching."  While names like Josh Johnson, James Shields, and Jon Lester have been brought up, the guy who seems to get the bulls-eye is Zack Greinke.  The package could be substantial.  Unlike Dempster, Atlanta has to potentially deal with a lot of teams after the Brewers right-hander.  The Rangers, Orioles, and White Sox all look to be heavy on Greinke with a team like the Nationals as a possible last-minute addition to trade talks.

Would a package of Julio Teheran, Zeke Spruill, and Joey Terdoslavich be enough to get Greinke?  I would think that it probably would be or would be close to the price, but should the Braves do it? 

No.  The chance that Greinke would provide a significant impact on this season is minimal.  I know that the difference between Jair Jurrjens and Greinke is tremendous, but one of baseball's secrets is that deadline, impact players rarely turn a season around, nor deliver a championship.  The Giants gave up Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran, who was superb and posted an OPS over .900 down the stretch (though I believe he had a few injuries).  But it did not fix San Francisco's offense, which finished dead last in R/G.  The Giants finished four games out and due to his contract's details, the Giants couldn't offer arbitration.  He left for the Cardinals.  Meanwhile, Wheeler may land in New York for the Mets sometime next year and cracked the Baseball America Top 40 before the season. 

In fact, World Series winners typically tinker with their club, not go after the best available player.  The Cardinals gave up on Colby Rasmus and added a hodgepodge of players last July, including Octavio Dotel, Rafael Furcal, Edwin Jackson, and Mike Rzhoweverthefuckhisnameisspelled.  The 2010 Giants added Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez to help their bullpen.  The 2009 Yanks added Jerry Hairston Jr.  The 2008 Phillies did acquire Joe Blanton, which some might have deemed a big move.  The '07 BoSox got Eric Gagne (who sucked).  In 2006, the Cardinals acquired Ronnie Belliard and Jorge Sosa (from the Braves).  The 2005 ChiSox went after Geoff Blum.  Now, in 2004, the Red Sox made a huge trade with a lot of moving pieces to bring Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mie-whatever in, but the guy they dealt (Nomar Garciaparra) was arguably the more notable guy. 

(Note: I realize some, if not all, of these teams made deals before July and even in August.  I'm focusing more on deadline trades.)

And as most people know, due to the new CBA, teams can't pick up compensation picks for rentals.  That's not to say that the Braves should stay pat.  They should seek out pitching, both for the rotation and bullpen.  They should seek out an outfielder to replace Matt Diaz.  They should fire Fredi Gonzalez.

But I don't believe Zack Greinke will make the Braves a contender, nor be worth the package of players the Braves will have to surrender.  But, wait, what about a window to sign an extension?  That changes everything, doesn't it?

No.  Matt Cain's $112.5 M extension over five years and Cole Hamels's freshly signed $144M extension over six years has upped the price tag quite a lot for Greinke to be a long-term option.  Even if he says "I love Atlanta, I want to be here" and signs a potentially below-market extension around $95M over five years, that's just not a price tag I believe Atlanta can deal with.  If the payroll limit is in the $95M range, paying Greinke $19M a year means that you are devoting 20% of your payroll to a pitcher who gets the ball 33 times a year, if healthy.  Adding Dan Uggla and the likely exercised options of Tim Hudson and Brian McCann and for four players, Atlanta would be devoting $53M, or 56%, of the payroll.  Martin Prado and Eric O'Flaherty have a year of arbitration left and the list of those beginning arbitration is noteworthy (Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, and Jonny Venters).  Michael Bourn and David Ross are free agents. 

Conservatively, if you add the arbitration-eligible guys I mentioned, I would say the Braves would have $25M to fill the rest of their team (15 players).  That's the entire bench and a hole in CF without any legitimate in-house options.  McCann/Hudson are free agents after 2013 and Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel are added to the arbitration crowd in 2013. 

Atlanta would be better off tinkering with the team, dropping some deadweight, and hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.  Trading for Greinke is exciting, but unless Liberty Media wants to give Frank Wren another $10-$15M of payroll space to work with, extending Greinke could potentially railroad the Braves.