These moves cover May 24 to May 30. Check out the previous week's recap.
Gwinnett Braves
Signed: Dale Thayer...For three years, Thayer was an above-average reliever for the Padres, but his numbers fell off the map last year. This year, he appeared in seven ugly games with Tulsa in the Double-A Texas League. Worth a shot, but Thayer is in his age-35 year and unlikely to find much more success during his professional career.
Promoted (from CAR): Stephen Gaylor...A regular in this column, Gaylor picks up a lot of singles and not much else. In 34 games over a trio of minor league stops this year, he's on-based .360 wth 9 steals. He is a fill-in option around the minor league system as needed.
Promoted (from DAN): Jose Ramirez...His demotion to the taxi squad was simply to give him some rest after a 2.2 inning, 46-pitch outing on the 20th. He's turned the corner a bit over his last nine games for Gwinnett with 11.1 inning, one run allowed, and 14 K's. However, his control has been an issue.
Promoted (from DAN): Braeden Schlehuber...Taxi squad move. Nothing more, nothing less.
Optioned: Dario Alvarez...I talked about Alvarez when he was claimed off waivers.
Optioned: Casey Kelly...In three outings this year in the bigs, Kelly has taken it on the chin as a fill-in/long relief option. He's allowed many of the 56 batters he's faced on the year to reach, but he's also done nothing to hurt his chances to stick around. His numbers with Gwinnett have been a mixed bag to this point.
Outrighted: Joel De La Cruz...Twice this season, De La Cruz has been called up to the bigs. Twice, he's been outrighted off the major league roster after never being used in the majors. The righty's numbers this year have not really earned a promotion, but it's still a bit odd to bring up a guy twice and never use him to at least get him a game in the bigs under his umbrella.
Outrighted: Reid Brignac...A long time ago, Brignac was an interesting option. His ability to play multiple positions has kept him in the bigs for nine straight years, but because he has no bat, he has done played more than 46 games in the majors since 2012. This season's 13-game cameo did little to keep Brignac in the majors.
Rehab: Jim Johnson...The Braves chose to not expedite Johnson's arrival in the bigs after trading Jason Grilli Tuesday. Friday looks like his target game. In three rehab outings (twice with Gwinnett), Johnson has thrown three scoreless innings with 3 hits allowed and 3 K's.
DL'd: David Peterson...An 8th rounder in 2012, Peterson had a solid 2015 after opening the year in Carolina and ending the season in Gwinnett. 2016 has not been nearly as positive, though. In 15 games with Gwinnett, Peterson has been hit hard and often (9.17 ERA, 1.5 HR/9) and struggled with his usually pinpoint control (7.1 BB/9 vs. 2 BB/9 last two years). Maybe injury has played a role? Regardless, Peterson is not much of a prospect.
Paternity List: Sean Kazmar...Congrats to Kazmar, who has played 300 games with Gwinnett over the last four years. The nearly 32 year-old appeared in the majors 19 times during 2008 for San Diego and has not been able to get back since.
Mississippi Braves
Rehab: Shae Simmons...The reliever landed with Mississippi seeking his fourth game back as he returns from Tommy John surgery, but some forearm tightness set him back.
Demoted from GWI: Brandon Cunniff...A big find out of the independent leagues, Cuniff pitched 39 times in the majors last year. However, after being a non-factor this spring, he has struggled greatly this year. He's never had great control, but he was always able to get enough K's to carry a 2+ K/BB rate. This year, it was even with Gwinnett (13 of each) in 20.2 innings. Maybe a demotion will be a catalyst for him. In his first game, he gave up a hit and walked one while striking out 4 in two frames.
Carolina Mudcats
Promoted from ROME: Taylor Lewis...A ninth rounder last June, Lewis had a lot of K's, but his numbers weren't overwhelming this year with Rome. Still, the 22 year-old was promoted and in his first two games, he's K'd three in 3.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two baserunners.
Demoted from MIS: Michael O'Neal...A fill-in option for Mississippi, O'Neal returns to Carolina where he has thrown 10 innings with this season. O'Neal spent two years in the Frontier League after being undrafted out of Auburn.
DL'd: Wes Parsons...For while, Parsons looked like the next Brandon Beachy. Undrafted out of a small school, Parsons had a 4.8 K/BB rate over 109.2 innings with Rome in 2013. Unfortunately, since drawing some prospect coverage, Parsons has both struggled when on the mound and struggled to even stay on the mound. He had appeared in eleven games with Carolina so far this year, including 3 starts, and had been hit around a good deal.
Rome Braves
Promoted from DAN: Adam McCreery...Acquired in the Jhoulys Chacin trade, McCreery finally made his 2016 debut with two innings out of the Rome bullpen. He struck out three and walked one. As I mentioned in my previous column about the trade, McCreery has some potential as a left-hand specialist, but with very little upside.
Released: Matt Tellor...It was only a matter of time for Tellor. A tenth rounder in 2014, Tellor had hit .224/.271/.331 as a professional over 607 PA with 170 K's. Limited to only first base, he needed to show a bat - but it never came.
Danville Braves
Demoted from CAR: Zach Quintana...Acquired for Kyle Wren last offseason, Quintana was a nice swingman with Rome last year, but has struggled with Carolina this year. He surrendered just one homer in 2015 and has given up 5 this year.
Demoted to DAN and re-promoted to GWI and re-demoted to DAN: Kanekoa Texeira...Taxi squad central.
GCL Braves
No moves.
DSL Braves
No moves.
Showing posts with label Chacin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chacin. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Monday, May 16, 2016
Braves Monday Roundup - Rome Goes 19, Soroka, Youth Movement
Welcome to the second Braves Monday Roundup. This series was supposed to be a way to recap the week in short fashion while freeing up Monday for a more focused look at a player or whathaveyou at my other blog, where I used to post weekly 5 for Monday articles. However, as I mentioned a few times this week, my other blog will be no more. About.com has restructured and the About Sports department got the ax. It's unfortunate, but alas, it's business. The advantage to that development for this blog means more content. I'm going to be saving some of the articles from About and should it completely disappear, I will be republishing the best stuff here.
Speaking of content, I will continue to do my shameless plugs, but I will put them at the bottom of this post rather as a headliner like I did last week.
5 Stories You May Have Missed
Rome Plays 2. Counts for 1
-On Sunday, the Rome Braves visited Hickory with Ricardo Sanchez on the mound. It was a matchup between the team with the best record in the South Atlantic League and Rome, who entered Sunday tied with the worst record. Hictory would strike first, cashing in a Alejandro Salazar error in for a run. In the second, Rome tied it up on a double-steal on a Leudys Baez strikeout. And that's how it would remain for about four hours. Sanchez had struck out six in five innings, A.J. Minter had tossed another scoreless outing, Trevor Belicek went four scoreless, and Grayson Jones added a trio of scoreless frames of his own, but the Rome offense couldn't find a way to break through. Finally, in the 18th, Baez would lead off things with a single. After a bunt and walk, Salazar would benefit from an error this time as a throwing error brought home a run. Bladimir Matos couldn't make it stick, though. He hit a batter and walked one. A wild pitch pushed both into scoring position and with one out, a fielder's choice scored a run. Matos got out of it, though, setting the stage for a wild 19th inning.
After a single, flyout, and the fifth error of the day by both teams, another error off the bat of Baez scored Rome's third run. The next four batters all reaches safely with the seventh error of the day advancing Ray-Patrick Didder to third. He would score on a Luke Dykstra flyout. Finally, Yepez brought home a final runner with a double. Rome had plated SEVEN runs in the 19th. In the bottom half, Rome switched Yepez to third so that Yeudi Grullon could pitch. The infielder walked one, but had a quiet 19th to finish the game. There will be few games crazier this year at any level.
Soroka Impresses
-The blog "Notes from the Sally" is a must-read for any minor league baseball fan. This week, John Calvagno profiled right-hander Mike Soroka. Drafted 28th overall last season out of Calgary, Soroka impressed Calvagno with his fastball and curve. Calvagno's greatest compliment is one that I've heard a few times when Soroka's name has come up. "Hard to believe he's just 18 years old." Soroka is a guy who should only climb up midseason prospect charts.
Braves Rotation Gets Younger
-Many people looked at the roster that broke camp and saw a plethroa of veterans from Bud Norris to Eric O'Flaherty to Jeff Francoeur and wondered, "if this is a rebuild, why all the old fogies?" Well, the thing about all of those veterans is that they make nice placeholders. The starting rotation has especially went through a youth movement already. With Norris shifted to the pen and Jhoulys Chacin traded, it left Julio Teheran as the only starter with at least 25 starts in the majors, according to the AJC's Michael Cunningham. Not only that, but the Braves had five starters who have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday when no other team has three. Last year, the Braves became the first team in history with six pitchers logging at least 15 starts who were 25-and-under. 2016 is not looking any different.
Right Field at SunTrust Will Be "Signature Item"
-One of the complaints with Turner Field is how...boring it is. From foul pole to foul pole, there are no nooks and crannies. No oddities that is special to Turner Field. Instead, Turner Field was built to be as normal and basic as you get with a bigger focus on the team on the field than ivy in the outfield, a Green Monster, a stupid hill in center field, or any number of things that make other ballparks unique. Suntrust Park, on the other hand, is designed to be different. One of the "signature items" will be brick wall right above 10 feet of padding in right field. The wall will be in play so hitters will have to hit the ball over it for homeruns. Otherwise, if it hits the brick, the outfielders will have to play how it caroms off the brick. It should be something to keep an eye on early next year.
Did the D'Backs win the Upton Trade?
-ArizonaSports.com's John Gambadoro wrote last week something that I felt had long ago been decided and was not up for debate. Except, Gambadoro came to the opposite conclusion as conventional wisdom. His position - the Diamondbacks won the Justin Upton trade. The mega deal completed in the 2012-13 offseason sent Upton and Chris Johnson to the Braves for Randall Delgado, Martin Prado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Drury. At the time, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was criticized for the move, but Gambadoro looks at the deal with a fresh perspective and comes away with the idea that the D'Backs got the better end of the deal. Now, there is something to be said that the D'Backs didn't do as badly as many felt they did with this trade, but it's short-sighted to come to the conclusion that Arizona won it. While the writer focuses solely on Upton, he misses the trade that sent Upton to the Padres for Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Jace Peterson. While Jace is back in the minors, Mallex looks like a potential starter, Dustin is raking, and Fried is back on the mound and showcasing his knee-buckling curveball. Those four players should be mentioned - especially since the writer mentions what the Diamondbacks got in the Prado exchange. Ultimately, like I said, the deal doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did when it happened, but it's still not looking good for Arizona.
Trivia Question
-Last week, I asked the question - "Since 2000, what pitcher had the most scoreless games to begin his career." The answer was not Hunter Cervenka, but Brad Ziegler, who began his career with with 29 games (and 39.1 innings) of scoreless ball out of the Oakland Athletics bullpen. It was Melvin Upton who ended the streak with a go-ahead double off Ziegler in a tie game. This week's question focuses on the fact the Braves have just four players who have a hit a homerun this year. "In the expansion era (1961-to-present), and excluding the streak-shortened 1981, what three teams have tied for the fewest players on the team to hit at least one homerun?" I'll give you a hint on one of the teams. Let's Play Two. Tweet at me if you know the answer.
Birthdays
-Billy Martin would have been 88 today. Martin, best known for being George Steinbrenner's favorite toy, played in six games with the Milwaukee Braves during the 1961 season. Also celebrating a birthday today is Sean McLaughlin, a right-hander with Carolina, who turns 22. Tomorrow, Pascual Perez would have been 59. Jordy Lara, an infielder for Mississippi, also has a May 17th birthday and turns 25. The following day, Marcus Giles turns 38. The powerful player made my Favorites Braves squad. Current righty Williams Perez will turn 25 on Saturday. On Sunday, Rio Ruiz will be just 22.
Shameless Plugs
Transaction Tuesday - Recapping a pair of trades, Adonis Garcia's demotion, and the promotion of A.J. Minter and Juan Yepez.
Braves Cash in Chacin - Atlanta traded pitcher Jhoulys Chacin last week as a means to sell high on the righty. My impression is that they may have sold too soon, but I understood the impulse.
Have any Braves Pitchers Hit Two Homers in the Same Game? - After Noah Syndergaard went yard twice last week, I fired up the Baseball-Reference Play Index and sought to answer that question.
Cherishing Cervenka - Unfortunately for Hunter Cervenka, I completely jinxed him as he surrendered his first runs later that day.
Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - In the first of a ten part series where I alternate between the Worst and Best drafts since 2000, I started last week with the fifth worst.
Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Topics included hitting fewer homers than games won, Nick Markakis not hitting any homers, Julio Teheran's durability, and how awesome Arodys Vizcaino's advanced metrics are.
Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Dustin Peterson, Dansby Swanson, and Ray-Patrick Didder among others were keyed on for this week.
Random Prospect Sunday - This week, I focused on Steve Janas, a righty who nearly threw a Perfect Game last season.
Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter.
Speaking of content, I will continue to do my shameless plugs, but I will put them at the bottom of this post rather as a headliner like I did last week.
5 Stories You May Have Missed
Rome Plays 2. Counts for 1
-On Sunday, the Rome Braves visited Hickory with Ricardo Sanchez on the mound. It was a matchup between the team with the best record in the South Atlantic League and Rome, who entered Sunday tied with the worst record. Hictory would strike first, cashing in a Alejandro Salazar error in for a run. In the second, Rome tied it up on a double-steal on a Leudys Baez strikeout. And that's how it would remain for about four hours. Sanchez had struck out six in five innings, A.J. Minter had tossed another scoreless outing, Trevor Belicek went four scoreless, and Grayson Jones added a trio of scoreless frames of his own, but the Rome offense couldn't find a way to break through. Finally, in the 18th, Baez would lead off things with a single. After a bunt and walk, Salazar would benefit from an error this time as a throwing error brought home a run. Bladimir Matos couldn't make it stick, though. He hit a batter and walked one. A wild pitch pushed both into scoring position and with one out, a fielder's choice scored a run. Matos got out of it, though, setting the stage for a wild 19th inning.
After a single, flyout, and the fifth error of the day by both teams, another error off the bat of Baez scored Rome's third run. The next four batters all reaches safely with the seventh error of the day advancing Ray-Patrick Didder to third. He would score on a Luke Dykstra flyout. Finally, Yepez brought home a final runner with a double. Rome had plated SEVEN runs in the 19th. In the bottom half, Rome switched Yepez to third so that Yeudi Grullon could pitch. The infielder walked one, but had a quiet 19th to finish the game. There will be few games crazier this year at any level.
Soroka Impresses
-The blog "Notes from the Sally" is a must-read for any minor league baseball fan. This week, John Calvagno profiled right-hander Mike Soroka. Drafted 28th overall last season out of Calgary, Soroka impressed Calvagno with his fastball and curve. Calvagno's greatest compliment is one that I've heard a few times when Soroka's name has come up. "Hard to believe he's just 18 years old." Soroka is a guy who should only climb up midseason prospect charts.
Braves Rotation Gets Younger
-Many people looked at the roster that broke camp and saw a plethroa of veterans from Bud Norris to Eric O'Flaherty to Jeff Francoeur and wondered, "if this is a rebuild, why all the old fogies?" Well, the thing about all of those veterans is that they make nice placeholders. The starting rotation has especially went through a youth movement already. With Norris shifted to the pen and Jhoulys Chacin traded, it left Julio Teheran as the only starter with at least 25 starts in the majors, according to the AJC's Michael Cunningham. Not only that, but the Braves had five starters who have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday when no other team has three. Last year, the Braves became the first team in history with six pitchers logging at least 15 starts who were 25-and-under. 2016 is not looking any different.
Right Field at SunTrust Will Be "Signature Item"
-One of the complaints with Turner Field is how...boring it is. From foul pole to foul pole, there are no nooks and crannies. No oddities that is special to Turner Field. Instead, Turner Field was built to be as normal and basic as you get with a bigger focus on the team on the field than ivy in the outfield, a Green Monster, a stupid hill in center field, or any number of things that make other ballparks unique. Suntrust Park, on the other hand, is designed to be different. One of the "signature items" will be brick wall right above 10 feet of padding in right field. The wall will be in play so hitters will have to hit the ball over it for homeruns. Otherwise, if it hits the brick, the outfielders will have to play how it caroms off the brick. It should be something to keep an eye on early next year.
Did the D'Backs win the Upton Trade?
-ArizonaSports.com's John Gambadoro wrote last week something that I felt had long ago been decided and was not up for debate. Except, Gambadoro came to the opposite conclusion as conventional wisdom. His position - the Diamondbacks won the Justin Upton trade. The mega deal completed in the 2012-13 offseason sent Upton and Chris Johnson to the Braves for Randall Delgado, Martin Prado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Drury. At the time, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was criticized for the move, but Gambadoro looks at the deal with a fresh perspective and comes away with the idea that the D'Backs got the better end of the deal. Now, there is something to be said that the D'Backs didn't do as badly as many felt they did with this trade, but it's short-sighted to come to the conclusion that Arizona won it. While the writer focuses solely on Upton, he misses the trade that sent Upton to the Padres for Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Jace Peterson. While Jace is back in the minors, Mallex looks like a potential starter, Dustin is raking, and Fried is back on the mound and showcasing his knee-buckling curveball. Those four players should be mentioned - especially since the writer mentions what the Diamondbacks got in the Prado exchange. Ultimately, like I said, the deal doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did when it happened, but it's still not looking good for Arizona.
Trivia Question
-Last week, I asked the question - "Since 2000, what pitcher had the most scoreless games to begin his career." The answer was not Hunter Cervenka, but Brad Ziegler, who began his career with with 29 games (and 39.1 innings) of scoreless ball out of the Oakland Athletics bullpen. It was Melvin Upton who ended the streak with a go-ahead double off Ziegler in a tie game. This week's question focuses on the fact the Braves have just four players who have a hit a homerun this year. "In the expansion era (1961-to-present), and excluding the streak-shortened 1981, what three teams have tied for the fewest players on the team to hit at least one homerun?" I'll give you a hint on one of the teams. Let's Play Two. Tweet at me if you know the answer.
Birthdays
-Billy Martin would have been 88 today. Martin, best known for being George Steinbrenner's favorite toy, played in six games with the Milwaukee Braves during the 1961 season. Also celebrating a birthday today is Sean McLaughlin, a right-hander with Carolina, who turns 22. Tomorrow, Pascual Perez would have been 59. Jordy Lara, an infielder for Mississippi, also has a May 17th birthday and turns 25. The following day, Marcus Giles turns 38. The powerful player made my Favorites Braves squad. Current righty Williams Perez will turn 25 on Saturday. On Sunday, Rio Ruiz will be just 22.
Shameless Plugs
Transaction Tuesday - Recapping a pair of trades, Adonis Garcia's demotion, and the promotion of A.J. Minter and Juan Yepez.
Braves Cash in Chacin - Atlanta traded pitcher Jhoulys Chacin last week as a means to sell high on the righty. My impression is that they may have sold too soon, but I understood the impulse.
Have any Braves Pitchers Hit Two Homers in the Same Game? - After Noah Syndergaard went yard twice last week, I fired up the Baseball-Reference Play Index and sought to answer that question.
Cherishing Cervenka - Unfortunately for Hunter Cervenka, I completely jinxed him as he surrendered his first runs later that day.
Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - In the first of a ten part series where I alternate between the Worst and Best drafts since 2000, I started last week with the fifth worst.
Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Topics included hitting fewer homers than games won, Nick Markakis not hitting any homers, Julio Teheran's durability, and how awesome Arodys Vizcaino's advanced metrics are.
Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Dustin Peterson, Dansby Swanson, and Ray-Patrick Didder among others were keyed on for this week.
Random Prospect Sunday - This week, I focused on Steve Janas, a righty who nearly threw a Perfect Game last season.
Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter.
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Markakis, Teheran, Vizzy
This article used to be a staple of my time at AtlantaBraves.About.com, but with my contract with the company ending - and their sports department being blown up - I'll continue the series here.
Homers < Wins
Over the history of baseball, winning more games than you homer is not a grand accomplishment. After all, before the introduction of smaller ballparks, expansion, and the realization that chicks dig the long ball, homeruns were not celebrated like they are now. Since Babe Ruth changed the face of baseball, less and less teams have been able to win more games than their team's total output of homeruns. Almost none of them also contended for a playoff birth.
When Freddie Freeman hit his sixth homerun last week, it gave the team nine homeruns compared to just eight wins. That's the thinnest of margins and considering 66.67% of the remaining team homeruns have been shipped out with the banishment of Adonis Garcia and release of Drew Stubbs, could the Braves do something that just never happens in the modern game? Could the Braves homer fewer times than they win games?
I can't answer that, but I can say that if they did, they would be the first team in over 20 years to do so. The last team to win more games than they sent dingers flying into the seats was the 1992 Milwaukee Brewers. It was really the perfect storm for the Brew Crew that year to pull this off. Two years before, they had waved goodbye to "swing hard in case you hit it" Rob Deer. Without his steady source of power, Milwaukee needed nice homerun numbers from a pre-Coors Dante Bichette while also requiring their Hall of Fame combo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor to not remember that they were hitting their upper 30's. None of those things happened and in 1992, Milwaukee hit just 82 homeruns, the second worst mark in the American League. Yet, they won 92 games and their 20 September wins had the Brewers just two games behind the Blue Jays with two to go. They would lose their final two games and the Jays would win the AL East, the AL Title, and...you know the rest.
Nick Markakis' Power Outage
In the first 832 plate appearances of a four-year, $44 million contract, Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis has nearly matched his Baltimore batting average (one point higher as a Brave) and also has maintained a statistically insignificant advantage over his OBP as an Oriole (11 points higher). In many ways, Markakis has shown no let-up when it comes to his offensive game.
Except for power, of course. No one thought Markakis would come to the Braves and hit 20 homers yearly after only doing that twice in his career (2007-08), but the expectation of more dongs was definitely higher than what the Braves have received thus far. In case you weren't aware, Markakis has homered three times as a Brave. While his gain in OBP may not be significant, his loss in slugging certainly is. As an Oriole, his ISO was .145. As a Brave, it's just .082. Now, one could argue the Braves should have seen this coming since his ISO over his final two years with the Orioles was .098, but even that would be an improvement. To bring perspective to his total of homers as a Brave, of the 51 players who have amassed 500 PA since 2000 as a Brave, only one player (Gregor Blanco) homered fewer times than Markakis. Blanco hit just one, by the way. Only one other player has three homeruns like Markakis - Tim Hudson in 250 fewer PA. None-power hitters like Melky Cabrera, Jordan Schafer, and Quilvio Veras look like Barry Bonds compared to Markakis.
He's had long homerun droughts as a Brave. His first homerun didn't come until plate appearance #396. His most recent one isn't quite as stark, but over his last 179 plate appearances dating back to when he led off September 25, 2015's game with a homerun, Markakis has just a dozen extra base hits in that time frame. All are doubles. Markakis has been productive as a Brave (105 wRC+), but it's a stretch to think he's been $44M productive.
Julio Teheran's Durability
With Bud Norris banished to the bullpen and Jhoulys Chacin traded to the Angels, Julio Teheran becomes the rotation's oldest and most experienced starter. Teheran has been amazingly durable as a professional pitcher and that has only continued as a major leaguer. Since the beginning of 2013, only six pitchers have made more starts than Teheran, who has taken the ball 104 times.
This is Teheran's Age-25 year. That's a simple way of saying what his age will be on June 30th of the season. If he picks up 22 more starts this season, he'll reach the 30 start plateau for the fourth consecutive year. Since 1990, only 16 players have done that before they turned 26. Just five reached five years of 30 GS or more by the age of 25. Only one - Felix Hernandez - had a half-dozen years of 30 GS before his 26th birthday.
Arodys Vizcaino's cFIP is Very Impressive
It's difficult for Vizcaino to find work as the Braves' closer. With so few opportunities, he has logged a lot of innings trying to keep a game tied or give the team a good inning to keep them close. He's been dominant when used - which you know if you've watched him pitch. A deep dive into his performance with Baseball Prospectus shows that he's been nearly as effective as the former Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel. So far this year, Vizzy has a cFIP, of FIP in context, of 74. That not only matches (in many less innings) Stephen Strasburg, it's not too far removed from Kimbrel's 71. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, also paints a picture of outstanding performance. When compared to their peers with 100 as league average, Vizzy has a 83 DRA-. Kimbrel's? 82. I definitely recommend further reading into both stats, but suffice it to say, each number tells us that - to this point - Vizzy has been every bit the performer the Braves traded right before the 2015 season starter. Vizzy's doing it for many millions less, by the way.
Slightly low on the number of stats for this week's stat pack, but I hope you found the ones I touched on interesting. Later this afternoon, I'll hopefully have the minor league portion of this series. (edit, here's the link.)
Homers < Wins
Over the history of baseball, winning more games than you homer is not a grand accomplishment. After all, before the introduction of smaller ballparks, expansion, and the realization that chicks dig the long ball, homeruns were not celebrated like they are now. Since Babe Ruth changed the face of baseball, less and less teams have been able to win more games than their team's total output of homeruns. Almost none of them also contended for a playoff birth.
When Freddie Freeman hit his sixth homerun last week, it gave the team nine homeruns compared to just eight wins. That's the thinnest of margins and considering 66.67% of the remaining team homeruns have been shipped out with the banishment of Adonis Garcia and release of Drew Stubbs, could the Braves do something that just never happens in the modern game? Could the Braves homer fewer times than they win games?
I can't answer that, but I can say that if they did, they would be the first team in over 20 years to do so. The last team to win more games than they sent dingers flying into the seats was the 1992 Milwaukee Brewers. It was really the perfect storm for the Brew Crew that year to pull this off. Two years before, they had waved goodbye to "swing hard in case you hit it" Rob Deer. Without his steady source of power, Milwaukee needed nice homerun numbers from a pre-Coors Dante Bichette while also requiring their Hall of Fame combo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor to not remember that they were hitting their upper 30's. None of those things happened and in 1992, Milwaukee hit just 82 homeruns, the second worst mark in the American League. Yet, they won 92 games and their 20 September wins had the Brewers just two games behind the Blue Jays with two to go. They would lose their final two games and the Jays would win the AL East, the AL Title, and...you know the rest.
 |
| By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons |
In the first 832 plate appearances of a four-year, $44 million contract, Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis has nearly matched his Baltimore batting average (one point higher as a Brave) and also has maintained a statistically insignificant advantage over his OBP as an Oriole (11 points higher). In many ways, Markakis has shown no let-up when it comes to his offensive game.
Except for power, of course. No one thought Markakis would come to the Braves and hit 20 homers yearly after only doing that twice in his career (2007-08), but the expectation of more dongs was definitely higher than what the Braves have received thus far. In case you weren't aware, Markakis has homered three times as a Brave. While his gain in OBP may not be significant, his loss in slugging certainly is. As an Oriole, his ISO was .145. As a Brave, it's just .082. Now, one could argue the Braves should have seen this coming since his ISO over his final two years with the Orioles was .098, but even that would be an improvement. To bring perspective to his total of homers as a Brave, of the 51 players who have amassed 500 PA since 2000 as a Brave, only one player (Gregor Blanco) homered fewer times than Markakis. Blanco hit just one, by the way. Only one other player has three homeruns like Markakis - Tim Hudson in 250 fewer PA. None-power hitters like Melky Cabrera, Jordan Schafer, and Quilvio Veras look like Barry Bonds compared to Markakis.
He's had long homerun droughts as a Brave. His first homerun didn't come until plate appearance #396. His most recent one isn't quite as stark, but over his last 179 plate appearances dating back to when he led off September 25, 2015's game with a homerun, Markakis has just a dozen extra base hits in that time frame. All are doubles. Markakis has been productive as a Brave (105 wRC+), but it's a stretch to think he's been $44M productive.
Julio Teheran's Durability
With Bud Norris banished to the bullpen and Jhoulys Chacin traded to the Angels, Julio Teheran becomes the rotation's oldest and most experienced starter. Teheran has been amazingly durable as a professional pitcher and that has only continued as a major leaguer. Since the beginning of 2013, only six pitchers have made more starts than Teheran, who has taken the ball 104 times.
This is Teheran's Age-25 year. That's a simple way of saying what his age will be on June 30th of the season. If he picks up 22 more starts this season, he'll reach the 30 start plateau for the fourth consecutive year. Since 1990, only 16 players have done that before they turned 26. Just five reached five years of 30 GS or more by the age of 25. Only one - Felix Hernandez - had a half-dozen years of 30 GS before his 26th birthday.
Arodys Vizcaino's cFIP is Very Impressive
It's difficult for Vizcaino to find work as the Braves' closer. With so few opportunities, he has logged a lot of innings trying to keep a game tied or give the team a good inning to keep them close. He's been dominant when used - which you know if you've watched him pitch. A deep dive into his performance with Baseball Prospectus shows that he's been nearly as effective as the former Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel. So far this year, Vizzy has a cFIP, of FIP in context, of 74. That not only matches (in many less innings) Stephen Strasburg, it's not too far removed from Kimbrel's 71. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, also paints a picture of outstanding performance. When compared to their peers with 100 as league average, Vizzy has a 83 DRA-. Kimbrel's? 82. I definitely recommend further reading into both stats, but suffice it to say, each number tells us that - to this point - Vizzy has been every bit the performer the Braves traded right before the 2015 season starter. Vizzy's doing it for many millions less, by the way.
Slightly low on the number of stats for this week's stat pack, but I hope you found the ones I touched on interesting. Later this afternoon, I'll hopefully have the minor league portion of this series. (edit, here's the link.)
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Braves Cash in Chacin
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| Keith Allison on Flickr via Wikipedia |
I immediately was a fan of the signing when the Braves inked him to a deal 11 days before Christmas last winter. If you are going to take a chance on a player, Chacin was the right type of player to take a chance on. Soon after, we were given a example of the wrong type of player to take a chance on - Kyle Kendrick. Always go for the guy who either could be a late bloomer or was superb before being sidetracked by injuries. Chacin fit the bill for the latter. In 2013, he was ranked 20th in baseball in fWAR among pitchers. That's the kind of player you hope for the best with.
He had a few hiccups this spring, but did enough to finish camp as a member of the rotation. Because of off days, he initially began the season in Triple-A and made a nice start with Gwinnett before excelling against the Nats on April 12 with six scoreless innings and 8 K's. Subsequent outings would never match the glory of his debut (same problem with Iron Man franchise) and things got away from him last time out when he gave up his first four homeruns of the year all in one game. The one outing made his ERA look worse than it probably should have as it jumped from 3.27 to 5.40. Chacin's xFIP of 3.32 and 3.55 SIERA were among his best professional totals. He was also doing enough to strikeout nearly a quarter of all batters - WAY over his career norms - with the best walk rate of his career. His cutter isn't a great pitch, but the extra usage seen this year may have helped his fastball and he's always had good breaking stuff.
But he's gone. I understand the impulse. Trade a guy with several injuries on his resume while he's healthy and productive. That said, I think there is a chance the Braves sold low here. If Chacin remains healthy and reasonably effective, the Angels paid a small price to get him. In fact, if the Angels are out of it in July, they could repackage Chacin for a better prospect than they gave up. However, I can't fault the Braves for getting what they can when they can.
And what they got was a raw 23 year-old pitcher. McCreery was well-thought of coming out of Bonita High School in 2011, but concerns with his elbow dropped him from a possible 2nd round pick to a 14th round selection by the Twins. McCreery chose not to sign and committed to Arizona State. After seeing a little action his freshman season, McCreery was used more frequently with poorer results in his sophomore campaign. He then transferred to Azusa Pacific, where he was a teammate of current Carolina Mudcats outfielder, Joseph Daris. McCreery would right the ship some with a 67 inning campaign with 72 strikeouts, but a concerning 50 walks.
The Angels spent a 22nd rounder on McCreery in June of 2014 and signed the California southpaw shortly after the draft. It was a good fit for both as the Angels got a potential strong arm with upside while McCreery could develop under the umbrella of a team that was less than an hour from his home. But the results have just not been there for McCreery. He's spent two years in the Arizona Summer League where he's too old to be playing. He improved his numbers last year compared to 2014 (walk rate down 2 BB/9, K rate up 3.7 per nine), but he still walked 14 in just 18.2 innings and now has 33 career free passes in 38 innings.
McCreery is an imposing sight. At 6'8", immediately, there were jokes that maybe he can help out the Hawks. He also pitches out of a three-quarters delivery as you can see below.
The ball likely appears to jump at lefthanders from that arm slot, but there are slight little hiccups in his delivery that need to be cleaned up. Part of the reason he fell in the 2011 draft was because he had to re-work his delivery to take out some of the violence. While it's smoother now, it's a struggle to stay consistent. A friend of mine pointed out that he might be "dead-arming" his glove hand rather than use his front side to line up his target. That alone can cause some control issues.
Provided he can clean up some of what is holding him back, it'll make his mid-90's velocity more dangerous against against hitters - especially left-handed batters. He will also need to develop his offspeed and breaking stuff. Overall, despite being 23, there is still a lot of basic work here that needs to be completed and that's why he's behind on his development. A 2014 college-age selection should be at least testing his luck in Single-A, not relegated to the old guy on a roster with a bunch of high school grads.
McCreery likely will begin his season in late June when the Appalachian League begins. Unlike Chacin, McCreery is a potential asset beyond this season. Whether that materializes and to what degree will depend on how well the lefty develops. At his age, it's time to get moving.
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I mentioned this on my Twitter, but my contract with About.com Sports will be running out. The company has reassessed several of their departments and the focus on Sports and individual teams have been decreased. I will continue to post here and I am lining up some additional opportunities.
Saturday, April 16, 2016
Minor League Saturday Stats Pack (4/16/16)
In this week's Saturday Stats Pack, I take a look at the continued improvement from a third baseman prospect who languished last year, a starter making his return from double knee surgery, and a converted shortstop on who is on fire. Remember to check out this week's major league Saturday Stats Pack where I looked at Nick Markakis's tear last week, Jhoulys Chacin's debut, and some team stats related to the early struggles this year.
Gwinnett - 7 Games, 11 Hits
Rio Ruiz's season got off to an 0-for-4 start, but since then, he's had at least a hit in each of the next eight games. Over the last four, he's had exactly two-a-game, giving him a stellar .355 average. The power has also came with a homerun Thursday night, his first at the AAA level. Few Braves prospects had a more disappointing 2015 than Ruiz, when he slashed .229/.331/.318. But he made adjustments and impressed fans and players alike this spring in his brief run with the major league team. While Adonis Garcia is holding down the third base job in the bigs, the Braves may opt to get a look at Ruiz this summer in a platoon role - especially considering Garcia's defensive limitations.
Mississippi - Whalen Goes Six, Gets First Double-A Win
As surprising as John Gant may have been this spring, he was the "other guy" acquired form the Mets last summer in the Kelly Johnson / Juan Uribe trade. Robert Whalen was the real pick-up and the righty only made three starts before missing the rest of the year and undergoing surgery on both of his knees. After making his debut last week, he ended the week on a strong note with six quality innings Friday night against Montgomery. He allowed four hits, a pair of runs, and induced 8 grounders to just two flyouts. He also struck out five to just one walk. Whalen is easy to forget about in this system, but he could be a fun trade piece or help fill out a rotation if he continues to develop.
Carolina - To the Max with 13 ING, 0 runs, and 14 K's
Another pitcher who flies a bit under the radar is Max Povse, which is surprising considering his 6'8" height. The third rounder in 2014 stalled in a five-start performance last summer with Carolina after looking great in Rome before the promotion. His struggles and the fact that injury ended his year early meant that Povse would make a return trip with the Mudcats. The rest of the Carolina League might be hoping the return trip ends with a promotion soon. After six scoreless against Salem last Sunday in which he walked just one and struck out seven, Povse's follow-up was just as excellent with seven one-hit innings, a walk, and seven K's.
Rome - RPD Rides Hot Streak to 1000+ OPS
When Ray-Patrick Didder signed out of Aruba, the Braves were high on his collection of tools and they wanted him to play shortstop where he could maximize his value, but they abandoned that hope last year. Still, his bat had some upside even though he hadn't stood out yet. So far this year, the 21 year-old is standing out in a big way. He's hitting over .350 with 4 doubles and 2 triples while playing mostly right field. He has yet to homer in 162 professional games and with his slight frame, power will never be his game, but he has a quick swing that slashes the ball to the gaps. To this point, he's been more of an adventure than a plus in the running game, but he could be an interesting super utility-type to keep an eye on.
Gwinnett - 7 Games, 11 Hits
Rio Ruiz's season got off to an 0-for-4 start, but since then, he's had at least a hit in each of the next eight games. Over the last four, he's had exactly two-a-game, giving him a stellar .355 average. The power has also came with a homerun Thursday night, his first at the AAA level. Few Braves prospects had a more disappointing 2015 than Ruiz, when he slashed .229/.331/.318. But he made adjustments and impressed fans and players alike this spring in his brief run with the major league team. While Adonis Garcia is holding down the third base job in the bigs, the Braves may opt to get a look at Ruiz this summer in a platoon role - especially considering Garcia's defensive limitations.
Mississippi - Whalen Goes Six, Gets First Double-A Win
As surprising as John Gant may have been this spring, he was the "other guy" acquired form the Mets last summer in the Kelly Johnson / Juan Uribe trade. Robert Whalen was the real pick-up and the righty only made three starts before missing the rest of the year and undergoing surgery on both of his knees. After making his debut last week, he ended the week on a strong note with six quality innings Friday night against Montgomery. He allowed four hits, a pair of runs, and induced 8 grounders to just two flyouts. He also struck out five to just one walk. Whalen is easy to forget about in this system, but he could be a fun trade piece or help fill out a rotation if he continues to develop.
Carolina - To the Max with 13 ING, 0 runs, and 14 K's
Another pitcher who flies a bit under the radar is Max Povse, which is surprising considering his 6'8" height. The third rounder in 2014 stalled in a five-start performance last summer with Carolina after looking great in Rome before the promotion. His struggles and the fact that injury ended his year early meant that Povse would make a return trip with the Mudcats. The rest of the Carolina League might be hoping the return trip ends with a promotion soon. After six scoreless against Salem last Sunday in which he walked just one and struck out seven, Povse's follow-up was just as excellent with seven one-hit innings, a walk, and seven K's.
Rome - RPD Rides Hot Streak to 1000+ OPS
When Ray-Patrick Didder signed out of Aruba, the Braves were high on his collection of tools and they wanted him to play shortstop where he could maximize his value, but they abandoned that hope last year. Still, his bat had some upside even though he hadn't stood out yet. So far this year, the 21 year-old is standing out in a big way. He's hitting over .350 with 4 doubles and 2 triples while playing mostly right field. He has yet to homer in 162 professional games and with his slight frame, power will never be his game, but he has a quick swing that slashes the ball to the gaps. To this point, he's been more of an adventure than a plus in the running game, but he could be an interesting super utility-type to keep an eye on.
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Transaction Tuesday: Gant, Lien, Sobotka
I'm going to try something new this season and that's keeping up with minor league transactions. Every Tuesday, I'll take a look at each level to go over some of the moves and provide analysis. If this is the kind of thing that interest you, let me know. For this week, I am going to ignore the moves to set the opening day roster and simply focus on releases and moves because of injuries/promotions.
Gwinnett
Signed: Emilio Bonifacio...Cut at the end of spring training, Bonifacio looked around, but ultimately returned to Atlanta to try to get back to the majors. The signing of Bonifacio was strange during the offseason as Atlanta gave the utility player $1.25M despite being cut last year because of a .390 OPS with the White Sox. With the promotion of Mallex Smith, you have to imagine Bonifacio will jump right into the lineup near the top. He's a decent 25th man option for NL teams who can utilize his speed and versatility, but if you need at-bats from him, you've already lost.
Demoted: John Gant...The crazy delivery ultimately did little to confuse major league hitters, who battered Gant for six hits, including two homers, in three innings. He was likely to head to the minors anyway so his early demotion was more of a sign of how badly the Braves bullpen needed a fresh arm. Gant has never played at Triple-A and presumably will head back to a starting role, replacing Jhoulys Chacin, who moved up to the majors to start tonight's game.
Mississippi
DL'd: Connor Lien...Things were going to be difficult enough for Lien handling Double-A pitching without a hand injury sidelining him. Lien's bat has improved in increments each year after beginning his career in the Gulf Coast League in 2012. Defensively, he's a tremendous fielder whose range is a gift to the corner outfielders. Hopefully, he is able to get back into the lineup soon.
Promoted: Sean Godfrey...It took Godfrey 62 games last year to get to Mississippi from the Carolina. This year, just one. After pretty much hitting since he was drafted in the 2014 22nd rounder, Godfrey met his match in Southern League pitching last season (.194/.232/.272 over 194 PA). At his best, he hits for a high average and sprinkles in some extra base hits with a few steals. At his worst, he's the Godfrey from last summer.
Carolina
Promoted: Stephen Gaylor...It's fitting that he was promoted to place Godfrey because it's difficult to differentiate between the pair for yours truly. Like Godfrey, Gaylor's value is that he's a high-effort guy with guile. The problem is that's not too much of a compliment, but a nice way of saying "he tries real hard."
Rome
DL'd: Chad Sobotka...after one game in which he gave up a hit, a walk, and uncorked a wild pitch, Sobotka's career is back on pause. Drafted with the knowledge that he'd miss 2014 because of injury, Sobotka was a sneaky sleeper in 2015, but struggled badly. Already 22, the hope was that he would pitch well enough to progress up to Carolina this year, though a DL trip was not in the cards.
Promoted: Bradley Keller...An outfielder out of Shelby, NC, the former Crest High School standout was promoted to fill Gaylor's spot. He slashed .245/.321/.350 last year with 9 EBH, 7 steals, and an ugly 50 K's in 162 PA.
Promoted: Oriel Caicedo...Replacing Sobotka on the roster is a player with a good amount of experience in the South Atlantic League already. Caicedo has actually been around since 2011, when he made his debut in the DSL. He flashes great control, but that's about it to this point. He's already made an appearance for Rome and has extensive time as a starter, though the Rome staff is considerably more stacked than it was in 2015 when he made 15 starts.
Danville
Nothing to report.
GCL Braves
Released: Franklin Azuaje...there was some minor hope that Azuaje would develop into a decent third base prospect when the Braves signed him out of Venezuela, but after a decent debut in the DSL during 2013, he rarely saw the field over the last two seasons. Part of that was due to a suspension that ended his 2014 season.
Released: Kevin Reiher...A 24th rounder in 2014 who missed last season, Reiher barely played during his career with the Braves.
DSL Braves
Nothing to report.
Need more Braves material to read? Check out my column from yesterday at my other blog. I looked at the first week of the season and more.
Gwinnett
Signed: Emilio Bonifacio...Cut at the end of spring training, Bonifacio looked around, but ultimately returned to Atlanta to try to get back to the majors. The signing of Bonifacio was strange during the offseason as Atlanta gave the utility player $1.25M despite being cut last year because of a .390 OPS with the White Sox. With the promotion of Mallex Smith, you have to imagine Bonifacio will jump right into the lineup near the top. He's a decent 25th man option for NL teams who can utilize his speed and versatility, but if you need at-bats from him, you've already lost.
Demoted: John Gant...The crazy delivery ultimately did little to confuse major league hitters, who battered Gant for six hits, including two homers, in three innings. He was likely to head to the minors anyway so his early demotion was more of a sign of how badly the Braves bullpen needed a fresh arm. Gant has never played at Triple-A and presumably will head back to a starting role, replacing Jhoulys Chacin, who moved up to the majors to start tonight's game.
Mississippi
DL'd: Connor Lien...Things were going to be difficult enough for Lien handling Double-A pitching without a hand injury sidelining him. Lien's bat has improved in increments each year after beginning his career in the Gulf Coast League in 2012. Defensively, he's a tremendous fielder whose range is a gift to the corner outfielders. Hopefully, he is able to get back into the lineup soon.
Promoted: Sean Godfrey...It took Godfrey 62 games last year to get to Mississippi from the Carolina. This year, just one. After pretty much hitting since he was drafted in the 2014 22nd rounder, Godfrey met his match in Southern League pitching last season (.194/.232/.272 over 194 PA). At his best, he hits for a high average and sprinkles in some extra base hits with a few steals. At his worst, he's the Godfrey from last summer.
Carolina
Promoted: Stephen Gaylor...It's fitting that he was promoted to place Godfrey because it's difficult to differentiate between the pair for yours truly. Like Godfrey, Gaylor's value is that he's a high-effort guy with guile. The problem is that's not too much of a compliment, but a nice way of saying "he tries real hard."
Rome
DL'd: Chad Sobotka...after one game in which he gave up a hit, a walk, and uncorked a wild pitch, Sobotka's career is back on pause. Drafted with the knowledge that he'd miss 2014 because of injury, Sobotka was a sneaky sleeper in 2015, but struggled badly. Already 22, the hope was that he would pitch well enough to progress up to Carolina this year, though a DL trip was not in the cards.
Promoted: Bradley Keller...An outfielder out of Shelby, NC, the former Crest High School standout was promoted to fill Gaylor's spot. He slashed .245/.321/.350 last year with 9 EBH, 7 steals, and an ugly 50 K's in 162 PA.
Promoted: Oriel Caicedo...Replacing Sobotka on the roster is a player with a good amount of experience in the South Atlantic League already. Caicedo has actually been around since 2011, when he made his debut in the DSL. He flashes great control, but that's about it to this point. He's already made an appearance for Rome and has extensive time as a starter, though the Rome staff is considerably more stacked than it was in 2015 when he made 15 starts.
Danville
Nothing to report.
GCL Braves
Released: Franklin Azuaje...there was some minor hope that Azuaje would develop into a decent third base prospect when the Braves signed him out of Venezuela, but after a decent debut in the DSL during 2013, he rarely saw the field over the last two seasons. Part of that was due to a suspension that ended his 2014 season.
Released: Kevin Reiher...A 24th rounder in 2014 who missed last season, Reiher barely played during his career with the Braves.
DSL Braves
Nothing to report.
Need more Braves material to read? Check out my column from yesterday at my other blog. I looked at the first week of the season and more.
Monday, March 14, 2016
Braves Cut Three More Relievers
I went over this a little in today's 5 for Monday post at my other site. Give it a read as it also touches on the rotation (especially Jhoulys Chacin), spring training stats, the 2016 draft, the road back for Jason Grilli and Mike Foltynewicz, and others odds and ends.
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The Braves continued their quick and decisive series of cuts on Monday morning, adding Matt Marksberry and Chris Withrow to the list of arms that were previously in the running, but now have "just died and went back down to the minors." Southpaw Hunter Cervenka joined the duo, though he was "reassigned" rather than optioned because he wasn't on the 40-man roster.
Marksberry and Withrow were both surprising cuts, especially at this point. As a favorite in the battle to join the Braves coming out of camp, Marksberry had moments of glory before a recent bad game. Marksberry has some qualities that make him an attractive member of any bullpen, but he's hurt by one thing right now - he has options. The Braves want to maintain a high level of depth and keeping a LOOGY at AAA rather than losing a player without options was an easier sell for the Braves.
Withrow was even more shocking because many, including me, had him pegged as a key member of the 2016 bullpen. Over 56 innings in the majors, Withrow has a 3.44 xFIP, 3.08 SIERA, and 93 cFIP - which all give the impression that he's a capable major league option when healthy. The Braves may have not seen the level of control they want from the righty, though to option him this quickly is still curious. Again, much like Marksberry, Withrow has options (actually just one) whereas players like Jose Ramirez don't.
Speaking of Ramirez, his chances of making this roster only improve. The same can be said for Rule 5 additions like Evan Rutckyj and Daniel Winkler, along with non-roster invitees Alex Torres, Carlos Torres, and Alexi Ogando. However, there is still much that is left to be done because we only know that Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson will be in the mix. If he suffers no setbacks, Jason Grilli will be there as well. That doesn't even take into account Ian Krol, who was expected to be a player in the bullpen, but might go the way of Withrow and head to Gwinnett to start 2016. Oh, and we should also mention the possibility of a long-relief arm such as Williams Perez or Ryan Weber being shifted to the bullpen to provide insurance for the rotation, though I'd think Winkler could be included in that mix as well.
The Braves are being proactive here, which puts the pressure on those players remaining in the picture to produce. We've seen what happens when they don't.
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| Rob Carr/Getty Images |
Marksberry and Withrow were both surprising cuts, especially at this point. As a favorite in the battle to join the Braves coming out of camp, Marksberry had moments of glory before a recent bad game. Marksberry has some qualities that make him an attractive member of any bullpen, but he's hurt by one thing right now - he has options. The Braves want to maintain a high level of depth and keeping a LOOGY at AAA rather than losing a player without options was an easier sell for the Braves.
Withrow was even more shocking because many, including me, had him pegged as a key member of the 2016 bullpen. Over 56 innings in the majors, Withrow has a 3.44 xFIP, 3.08 SIERA, and 93 cFIP - which all give the impression that he's a capable major league option when healthy. The Braves may have not seen the level of control they want from the righty, though to option him this quickly is still curious. Again, much like Marksberry, Withrow has options (actually just one) whereas players like Jose Ramirez don't.
Speaking of Ramirez, his chances of making this roster only improve. The same can be said for Rule 5 additions like Evan Rutckyj and Daniel Winkler, along with non-roster invitees Alex Torres, Carlos Torres, and Alexi Ogando. However, there is still much that is left to be done because we only know that Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson will be in the mix. If he suffers no setbacks, Jason Grilli will be there as well. That doesn't even take into account Ian Krol, who was expected to be a player in the bullpen, but might go the way of Withrow and head to Gwinnett to start 2016. Oh, and we should also mention the possibility of a long-relief arm such as Williams Perez or Ryan Weber being shifted to the bullpen to provide insurance for the rotation, though I'd think Winkler could be included in that mix as well.
The Braves are being proactive here, which puts the pressure on those players remaining in the picture to produce. We've seen what happens when they don't.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Full Analysis on the Braves Cuts Today
Saturday appears to be cut day for the Atlanta Braves. Last Saturday, the big takeaways were David Carpenter and Ryan Kelly being released from the organization. Today, a few releases and a number of players being optioned or reassigned. If you are unsure about the difference, if a player is on the 40-man roster, he must be optioned to the minors. Reassigned is the technical number for minor league free agents that are being sent to the minor league camp. Where they ultimately start the season will be decided later. All told, 14 players were cut from the major league camp and 49 players remain from the 70 that opened camp.
Released:
Kyle Kendrick - Many of us groaned when Kendrick's signing was announced last New Year's Eve. He was coming off an ugly season with the Rockies and had been average or worse during his entire career. Adding another sinker baller who gives up too many homeruns was not exactly awe-inspiring. Fortunately, Kendrick looked awful in two starts to open his camp run. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin, who was signed shortly before Kendrick, has looked pretty good. Kendrick's release doesn't make Chacin a lock to make the roster, but it certainly helped his case.
Chris Volstad - Signed shortly after the 2015 season concluded for the Braves, Volstad was a long shot even before the additions of Kendrick and Chacin (let alone the other players acquired this offseason). He looked destined for a trip to AAA, but he pitched just as poorly as Kendrick. Actually, he was worse considering Kendrick was starting the games so he was facing more major league regulars. With so many pitchers in-house, Volstad pitched his way out of the organization.
Optioned to Gwinnett:
Danny Burawa - One of the ex-Yanks acquired by the organization after adding Gordon Blakely in October of 2014, Burawa appeared in a dozen games with the Braves (and one awful one with the Yankees) last season. He had decent control at the beginning of his career, but it has regressed since injuries wiped out nearly his entire 2012 season. He has flashed strikeout potential, though his numbers fell a bit last season. Already 27, his window is rapidly closing.
Daniel Castro - Unlike the three names I've gone over so far, Castro actually looked decent this spring, but the numbers were against him. He stole some time at second base last year against lefties to shield the struggling Jace Peterson, but offseason acquisitions made him an afterthought. He'll remain in the "first person up" slot until better prospects overtake him for that, too. Castro's best chance at getting back to the majors in the short-term future is an injury/trade of Erick Aybar. He's fairly smooth in the field, but just doesn't have the bat to stick.
Tyrell Jenkins - About the time Jenkins was optioned, he tweeted, "trust the process, embrace the struggle, and keep pushing!" Jenkins was a bit of an early camp name as he impressed the coaches with some mechanical adjustments. He only helped his stock in camp, but he started below a lot of names and just didn't have the time to push his way up the depth chart. He pitched well last year and will have a shot to build on his success. If he can improve his K/BB numbers, he'll be in the majors very soon. He won't turn 24 until July.
Casey Kelly - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Kelly has logged 40.1 innings in the majors since 2012 with little success. As recently as 2013, he was a perennial Top 100 prospect, but injuries and poor play have limited him to 196 innings since the end of 2011. Braves are taking a chance on Kelly and despite making his debut in 2012, this is only his second option year. What will be interesting to see as the Gwinnett season opens is if Kelly will be used as a starter or reliever. San Diego began to convert him to the latter last year.
Optioned to Mississippi:
Mauricio Cabrera - He's been the "talk of the camp" in back-to-back springs with his triple-digit velocity, but the same old story remains. Can he throw his pitches for strikes? Five years into his minor league career, we have rarely seen him do that. This is only his Age-22 season and the Braves made the wise decision to shift him to the pen full time last year. As always, he'll be fun to watch, but until the results begin to even come close to the potential, he'll be stuck in neutral.
Reassigned:
Chase d'Arnaud - When he signed around Thanksgiving, the chances of making the Braves were much better, but free agent signings since then have killed whatever hope d'Arnaud had of making this roster. He'll now try to hang on at AAA and hope some bad luck for others gets him back to the majors, where he holds a career .225 wOBA in 175 PA with a -0.6 fWAR.
Chris Ellis - Considered a bit more polished that the higher ranked prospect he was acquired with in the Andrelton Simmons trade, Ellis looked solid in A+ ball last year, but fell apart after a midseason promotion to AA-Arkansas. While Ellis has a more polish in that he shows a decent idea on how to get the ball into the strikezone, he seems to struggle with keeping his mechanics straight on the mound along with just having a feel for the moment. If he is able do that, he could max out as a bottom-of-the-rotation arm or decent reliever.
Nate Freiman - A Rule 5 guy in 2013, Freiman showed a decent hit tool that season with little power. He followed that up by showing decent power, but no hit tool in '14. Last year, he was stuck in AAA and continued to decline across the board. Freiman flashed some good power and on-base skills back in the day, but he's an AAAA bat at this point and maybe not even that. With few players pushing for time at first base in AAA, Freiman looks like he'll get some good playing time if he hits at all.
David Holmberg - He's been in the majors each of the last three years and this is the progression of his FIP - 5.48, 7.57, 8.60. In his defense, that only comes out to 62 total innings, but that's still damn awful. He's been used as a starter primarily and could be in line for that at Gwinnett, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him in AA for depth reasons.
Sean Newcomb - Often ranked as high as #2 in the Braves system, Newcomb has all the potential in the world to be a frontline starter. He could fail to reach that and still become a dynamite reliever. His velocity comes from a low-energy delivery which could bold well for his future. But he can't depend on his heater as he advances and needs his secondary pitches to become better. How much advancement comes with those pitches will decide just how good Newcomb becomes.
Rio Ruiz - Other prospects had a better spring so far, but Ruiz showed off a confident swing and caught some eyes. That's important for a player that took a step backwards in 2015 after his wOBA fell 50 points. Ruiz definitely has a fan in the organization in the form of Kiley McDaniel, who ranked him #43rd in his Top 100 heading into 2015, and has since taken a position with the Braves. Ruiz has the skillset to stay at third base and if his bat rounds into his form, he could develop into a Kyle Seager type who trades a little of the power for better walk rates. While much of the Third Baseman of the Future hype is attached to Austin Riley - and deservedly so - Ruiz is closer and can take the position if he turns the corner.
Madison Younginer - He was brought in for depth and has been pretty decent-to-average during his minor league career. He's only throw 3.2 innings above AA so a decent run at AAA is needed for the 25 year-old first. He has very good sinking movement on his pitches and can be tough to elevate the ball against. If he can find success at AAA, he'll be in the same camp as some of the guys who got bullpen looks for the Braves last year. If he gets a look, he'll have to take advantage of it, though.
Released:
Kyle Kendrick - Many of us groaned when Kendrick's signing was announced last New Year's Eve. He was coming off an ugly season with the Rockies and had been average or worse during his entire career. Adding another sinker baller who gives up too many homeruns was not exactly awe-inspiring. Fortunately, Kendrick looked awful in two starts to open his camp run. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin, who was signed shortly before Kendrick, has looked pretty good. Kendrick's release doesn't make Chacin a lock to make the roster, but it certainly helped his case.
Chris Volstad - Signed shortly after the 2015 season concluded for the Braves, Volstad was a long shot even before the additions of Kendrick and Chacin (let alone the other players acquired this offseason). He looked destined for a trip to AAA, but he pitched just as poorly as Kendrick. Actually, he was worse considering Kendrick was starting the games so he was facing more major league regulars. With so many pitchers in-house, Volstad pitched his way out of the organization.
Optioned to Gwinnett:
Danny Burawa - One of the ex-Yanks acquired by the organization after adding Gordon Blakely in October of 2014, Burawa appeared in a dozen games with the Braves (and one awful one with the Yankees) last season. He had decent control at the beginning of his career, but it has regressed since injuries wiped out nearly his entire 2012 season. He has flashed strikeout potential, though his numbers fell a bit last season. Already 27, his window is rapidly closing.
Daniel Castro - Unlike the three names I've gone over so far, Castro actually looked decent this spring, but the numbers were against him. He stole some time at second base last year against lefties to shield the struggling Jace Peterson, but offseason acquisitions made him an afterthought. He'll remain in the "first person up" slot until better prospects overtake him for that, too. Castro's best chance at getting back to the majors in the short-term future is an injury/trade of Erick Aybar. He's fairly smooth in the field, but just doesn't have the bat to stick.
Tyrell Jenkins - About the time Jenkins was optioned, he tweeted, "trust the process, embrace the struggle, and keep pushing!" Jenkins was a bit of an early camp name as he impressed the coaches with some mechanical adjustments. He only helped his stock in camp, but he started below a lot of names and just didn't have the time to push his way up the depth chart. He pitched well last year and will have a shot to build on his success. If he can improve his K/BB numbers, he'll be in the majors very soon. He won't turn 24 until July.
Casey Kelly - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Kelly has logged 40.1 innings in the majors since 2012 with little success. As recently as 2013, he was a perennial Top 100 prospect, but injuries and poor play have limited him to 196 innings since the end of 2011. Braves are taking a chance on Kelly and despite making his debut in 2012, this is only his second option year. What will be interesting to see as the Gwinnett season opens is if Kelly will be used as a starter or reliever. San Diego began to convert him to the latter last year.
Optioned to Mississippi:
Mauricio Cabrera - He's been the "talk of the camp" in back-to-back springs with his triple-digit velocity, but the same old story remains. Can he throw his pitches for strikes? Five years into his minor league career, we have rarely seen him do that. This is only his Age-22 season and the Braves made the wise decision to shift him to the pen full time last year. As always, he'll be fun to watch, but until the results begin to even come close to the potential, he'll be stuck in neutral.
Reassigned:
Chase d'Arnaud - When he signed around Thanksgiving, the chances of making the Braves were much better, but free agent signings since then have killed whatever hope d'Arnaud had of making this roster. He'll now try to hang on at AAA and hope some bad luck for others gets him back to the majors, where he holds a career .225 wOBA in 175 PA with a -0.6 fWAR.
Chris Ellis - Considered a bit more polished that the higher ranked prospect he was acquired with in the Andrelton Simmons trade, Ellis looked solid in A+ ball last year, but fell apart after a midseason promotion to AA-Arkansas. While Ellis has a more polish in that he shows a decent idea on how to get the ball into the strikezone, he seems to struggle with keeping his mechanics straight on the mound along with just having a feel for the moment. If he is able do that, he could max out as a bottom-of-the-rotation arm or decent reliever.
Nate Freiman - A Rule 5 guy in 2013, Freiman showed a decent hit tool that season with little power. He followed that up by showing decent power, but no hit tool in '14. Last year, he was stuck in AAA and continued to decline across the board. Freiman flashed some good power and on-base skills back in the day, but he's an AAAA bat at this point and maybe not even that. With few players pushing for time at first base in AAA, Freiman looks like he'll get some good playing time if he hits at all.
David Holmberg - He's been in the majors each of the last three years and this is the progression of his FIP - 5.48, 7.57, 8.60. In his defense, that only comes out to 62 total innings, but that's still damn awful. He's been used as a starter primarily and could be in line for that at Gwinnett, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him in AA for depth reasons.
Sean Newcomb - Often ranked as high as #2 in the Braves system, Newcomb has all the potential in the world to be a frontline starter. He could fail to reach that and still become a dynamite reliever. His velocity comes from a low-energy delivery which could bold well for his future. But he can't depend on his heater as he advances and needs his secondary pitches to become better. How much advancement comes with those pitches will decide just how good Newcomb becomes.
Rio Ruiz - Other prospects had a better spring so far, but Ruiz showed off a confident swing and caught some eyes. That's important for a player that took a step backwards in 2015 after his wOBA fell 50 points. Ruiz definitely has a fan in the organization in the form of Kiley McDaniel, who ranked him #43rd in his Top 100 heading into 2015, and has since taken a position with the Braves. Ruiz has the skillset to stay at third base and if his bat rounds into his form, he could develop into a Kyle Seager type who trades a little of the power for better walk rates. While much of the Third Baseman of the Future hype is attached to Austin Riley - and deservedly so - Ruiz is closer and can take the position if he turns the corner.
Madison Younginer - He was brought in for depth and has been pretty decent-to-average during his minor league career. He's only throw 3.2 innings above AA so a decent run at AAA is needed for the 25 year-old first. He has very good sinking movement on his pitches and can be tough to elevate the ball against. If he can find success at AAA, he'll be in the same camp as some of the guys who got bullpen looks for the Braves last year. If he gets a look, he'll have to take advantage of it, though.
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Kyle Kendrick is a Brave. Well, of course he is!
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| Thearon W. Henderson - Getty Images |
One thing that might surprise you about a flyball pitcher like Kendrick is that he relies on pitches that should have a downward plane to them - a 90 mph sinker, an 87 mph slider, and an 82 mph splitter. And he does. His sinker, according to Fangraphs, grades out as possessing the 11th most vertical movement among qualified pitchers over the last three years. His cutter ranks 38th in vertical movement during the same time frame. The problem for Kendrick is less movement and more that he lacks the stuff to get whiffs. Outside of his curveball, which isn't one of his most used pitches, he can't get pitches past hitters leading to a lot of batted balls and very few of them are hit softly.
You might think that because his curveball gets the most whiffs, he should use it more often. Problem there - his curve gets drilled when hitters aren't missing it. That's why he relies on his sinkers, cutters, and splitters. He has much higher luck with them not getting smacked to other dimensions.
In the end, I look at Kendrick much like I saw Eric Stults. If Kendrick is getting a little hit-lucky, he's competent enough to handle fifth starting duties, but there is a reason when Kendrick cost nothing on the free agent market. Of the 50 starters since 2007 who have started at least 200 games, Kendrick's 5.2 fWAR is the worst in the game while his 1.24 HR/9 rate is the fourth worst among pitchers with at least 1000 innings in the same time frame. While we're piling on, since 2007, no pitcher has thrown at least a thousand innings and has a worse FIP than Kendrick.
While we are really piling on, in about half as many innings, Kyle Davies has a slightly better FIP.
Kyle Davies.
Well, at least Kendrick doesn't cost anything.
Monday, December 14, 2015
Atlanta Braves Sign Jhoulys Chacin
You'd be hard pressed to find a team in baseball that hasn't found players with more unique names than the Braves. They now have a Dansby, an Ender Inciarte, a Rutckyj, something called a Foltynewicz, an Ozhaino Albies, and still retain the services of Joey Terdoslavich.
Now, you can add Jhoulys Chacin to the list. At least the Braves will lead the league in most letters used!
Chacin was a quick and steady riser through the Rockies' system. He made his debut in 2009 and a year later, became a fixture for the Rockies when healthy. His 2010 rookie season was tremendous. He walked too many, but he struck out a batter an inning and showed an ability to induce grounders off his low 90's sinker. That's kind of a useful thing for a Coors Field pitcher. The following season, his strikeouts fell from 24% to 18%, but his sinker was utilized more and nearly all of his pitches had a downward tilt to them. This resulted in a 10% increase in groundballs to 56.3%.
With back-to-back 2 WAR seasons already in the bag, things looked up for the Venezuelan, but Chacin struggled in 2012 as health (14 starts) and poor play led him to a 5.10 xFIP and a high rate of flyballs. He bounced back in 2013 with his best season to date. His strikeouts again declined for the third consecutive season, but he threw more strikes (48% vs. 44% career rate) and reached 60% in first-pitch strikes for the first time in his career. A better groundball rate and a fluky 6% HR/FB helped Chacin with matching 3.47's ERA and FIP's, the latter of which was his best mark of his career. As was his 3.9 fWAR total. To put that into perspective, it ranked as the 20th best pitching WAR in baseball according to Fangraphs and the sixth best WAR total in Rockies history for a pitcher.
Chacin was on the cusp of greatness, but another injury-filled 2014 killed his momentum. After getting pushed out of a job in the spring of 2015, he was cut by the Rockies. He would later hook up with the Indians, but eventually opted out so that he could sign with Arizona. The latter got him back to the majors, where he showed some signs of the pitcher of old (19% K%, 47% GB%). An unsustainable LOB% rate of 81% and 1.35 HR/9 fluctuated his FIP unfairly the other way, but his SIERA was almost on point with the 4.27 from his 2013 season. Granted...he pitched 170 or so fewer innings. He did look pretty good in AAA first with Columbus and then with Reno as well.
On the mound, Chacin threw more sinkers than any other pitch in 2015, a new development. Also new was a cutter that took away a healthy amount of the fourseamers he used to throw. He also sprinkles in a curve and changeup, but relies greatly on his slider. He's lost velocity compared to his 2013 numbers (about 2 mph), though maybe he can get that back with a healthy offseason program.
Chacin is less than a month away from turning 28 and joins a battle for a rotation spot in a wide open field. This is a smart signing that could provide dividends. It would surprise me none to see Chacin break camp with the team, even in a swingman role. After all, we need more unique names added to the roster. It's our thing, dammit.
Now, you can add Jhoulys Chacin to the list. At least the Braves will lead the league in most letters used!
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| Norm Hall | Getty Images |
With back-to-back 2 WAR seasons already in the bag, things looked up for the Venezuelan, but Chacin struggled in 2012 as health (14 starts) and poor play led him to a 5.10 xFIP and a high rate of flyballs. He bounced back in 2013 with his best season to date. His strikeouts again declined for the third consecutive season, but he threw more strikes (48% vs. 44% career rate) and reached 60% in first-pitch strikes for the first time in his career. A better groundball rate and a fluky 6% HR/FB helped Chacin with matching 3.47's ERA and FIP's, the latter of which was his best mark of his career. As was his 3.9 fWAR total. To put that into perspective, it ranked as the 20th best pitching WAR in baseball according to Fangraphs and the sixth best WAR total in Rockies history for a pitcher.
Chacin was on the cusp of greatness, but another injury-filled 2014 killed his momentum. After getting pushed out of a job in the spring of 2015, he was cut by the Rockies. He would later hook up with the Indians, but eventually opted out so that he could sign with Arizona. The latter got him back to the majors, where he showed some signs of the pitcher of old (19% K%, 47% GB%). An unsustainable LOB% rate of 81% and 1.35 HR/9 fluctuated his FIP unfairly the other way, but his SIERA was almost on point with the 4.27 from his 2013 season. Granted...he pitched 170 or so fewer innings. He did look pretty good in AAA first with Columbus and then with Reno as well.
On the mound, Chacin threw more sinkers than any other pitch in 2015, a new development. Also new was a cutter that took away a healthy amount of the fourseamers he used to throw. He also sprinkles in a curve and changeup, but relies greatly on his slider. He's lost velocity compared to his 2013 numbers (about 2 mph), though maybe he can get that back with a healthy offseason program.
Chacin is less than a month away from turning 28 and joins a battle for a rotation spot in a wide open field. This is a smart signing that could provide dividends. It would surprise me none to see Chacin break camp with the team, even in a swingman role. After all, we need more unique names added to the roster. It's our thing, dammit.
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