The Top 10 Braves Not in the Hall of Fame

Last Wednesday, the 2017 Hall of Fame class was announced with first timer Ivan Rodriguez joining Jeff Bagwell and long-overdue Tim Raines as the latest inductees into Cooperstown. It got me thinking - who are the best Braves not in the Hall? And why just think it when I can attempt to quantify it? Hence, today's list of the top ten Braves to be shut out of Cooperstown. To be clear - this list isn't ten players who should be in the Hall of Fame. It's not a great injustice that these ten players collectively aren't in the Hall. I feel like only one really deserves it while others have legitimate arguments, but I feel aren't Hall of Fame-worthy.

To preface this list, let me tell you how I arrived at the Top 10. This is a Braves-centric blog with a Braves-centric list. These are players who, if they are ever enshrined, would have gone into the Hall as Braves (or Beaneaters, Doves, etc.). A good example of someone who doesn't apply for this list is Gary Sheffield. A borderline choice for the Hall of Fame, Sheff is a no-go for this list because he only played two years with the franchise. Fred McGriff spent five years with the Braves, but missed this list as well. McGriff only had 11 bWAR as a Brave - way too little to make this list. To put it in another way, a player's accomplishments elsewhere are meaningless.

Well, that's not entirely true as I'm not going to split all of their stats up by franchise - especially the Hall of Fame metrics. However, I will split up WAR because that's pretty easy to do so the WAR I list is limited to the player's time with this franchise. I wanted to make my reasoning clear before you comment "Crime Dog!" or "Billy Wagner!"

I tried to use era-comparable stats like WAR (both main versions), wRC+, and FIP over traditional counting numbers. FIP isn't perfect, but I don't really have a pitcher's stat that compares well from era to era. Further, consideration was given to other stats which tried to compare the player's accomplishments and numbers to members already in the Hall of Fame (HOFm, HOFs, JAWS). For more information on HOFm and HOFs, click here. To read up on JAWS, try this.

Finally, a player actually has to be eligible for induction, which keeps out Andruw Jones and Chipper Jones.

With all that out of the way, here are the Walk-Off Walk Top 10 Braves Players not in the Hall of Fame.

10. Johnny Logan
33.0 bWAR, 31.1 fWAR, .321 wOBA, 96 RC+
28 HOFm, 19 HOFs, 31 JAWS

The everyday starter at shortstop for the Braves between 1952 and 1960, Logan was considered a spark plug for some good Milwaukee teams. Four times, he was selected as an All-Star and he received MVP support in six consecutive years from '52 to '57. A strong defender, Logan hit .275/.334/.395 during his first eight full seasons. Logan was elite for his time and ranks third in fWAR for shortstops during the 50's and has the 24th best fWAR of the 50's.

However, he declined like he fell off a cliff. In 1960, he hit .245/.309/.334 over 136 games. He would play just three more years and appear in only 170 games, in which he hit .241/.315/.286 mostly as a reserve. He does hold the distinction of being the first major league ballplayer to be on title-winning teams in both the United States and Japan as he played one year for Nankai in '64. As it will become clear for most players on this list, how they finished their career is often what keeps them out of Hall of Fame consideration. Logan just didn't have the staying power - partly because he only got to the majors as a 25-year-old.

9. Del Crandall
27.3 bWAR, 29.0 fWAR, .315 wOBA, 93 RC+
82 HOFm, 26 HOFs, 26.5 JAWS

Crandall became the everyday catcher for the Braves in 1953 and hit 151 homeruns over the next eight years - well overshadowed by his teammates Eddie Mathews and Hank Aaron. Crandall may have garnered even more support for a Hall of Fame vote had he not missed two whole seasons by serving his country in Korea.

Between 1953 and 1962, he was an All-Star eight times, a Gold Glover four times, and helped to lead the Braves to a World Title in 1957. However, while he was an elite defender and had good pop, he just doesn't stand up to other peers like Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella.

Public Domain via Wikipedia Commons

8. Tommy Holmes
34.7 bWAR, 33.8 fWAR, .375 wOBA, 122 RC+
55 HOFm, 22 HOFs, 32.6 JAWS

Like many greats during the franchise's post-1900 years in Boston, Holmes' prime seasons were wasted for some bad teams - which makes him easy to forget. His lack of longevity also hurt him as he played just 11 years, including just 7 at a starter-level. His fourth full season in the majors, 1945, was a huge campaign for the then-28-year-old. He led the league in hits, doubles, homers, slugging percentage, and OPS and finished second in batting average and RBI - which ranks him among the closest any modern-era Brave has ever been to a Triple Crown season. His most amazing stat in 1945, however, was his 70-to-9 walk-to-strikeout rate. Since 1901, only 19 times has a player received at least 600 plate appearances without striking out at least ten times. Holmes is the second most recent and it is also the only time a hitter belted 20 homers while striking out fewer than ten times.

Holmes had a Hall of Fame beginning to his career, but the power numbers cratered after '45 when the owners moved the fences back out after bringing them in the previous year. By 1950, his career was basically over as a professional ballplayer, which kept him from putting up the numbers that might warrant Hall of Fame consideration.

7. Lew Burdette
26.2 bWAR, 29.3 fWAR, 3.70 FIP, 24 SV
84 HOFm, 31 HOFs, 26.4 JAWS

For 13 years, Burdette was a Brave and for most of those years, he was their #2 starter. It's not the worst thing to be #2 when your teammate is Warren Spahn. A control pitcher who was also a joker (he once intentionally posted as a left-hand pitcher for his baseball card), Burdette was a true character. He also helped to bring the Braves its only title while in Milwaukee. In Game 2, Game 5, and Game 7 of the 1957 World Series, Burdette gave up two runs while throwing complete games in each three - all wins. The final two, pitched over a four-day period, saw Burdette not allow a single run.

If one could be in the Hall of Fame for a dominant World Series performance, Burdette would be near the front of the line. However, his overall numbers just aren't there.

Boston Public Library/Public Domain

6. Fred Tenney
39.1 bWAR, 41.1 fWAR, .357 wOBA, 111 RC+
36 HOFm, 25 HOFs, 36.1 JAWS

It is rarely rewarding to be an elite defensive first baseman. Tenney revolutionized how first basemen play defense from playing deep and off the bag to popularizing the 3-6-3 double play. A strong hitter, Tenney hit .318/.376/.376 in 1897, his first season as Boston's first baseman. He would hit .300 four more times, but even by the standards of his time, Tenney never displayed much of ability to hit for extra base hits. Tenney did steal 285 bases and walked nearly 300 more times than he struck out. It was a very successful career that included time as a manager, but his stats never really added up to Hall of Fame support.

Here's a fun story about Tenney that's not that important to his chances to head to Cooperstown. After his days with Boston were finished, he spent two years with the Giants and on September 23, 1908, New York was facing the Cubs. Tenney's back, which had been ailing for some time, was so bad that he missed his only start of 1908. His replacement that day was Fred Merkle. With the game tied 1-1 in the ninth, Al Bridwell singled with runners on the corners and two outs to score the go-ahead run. The only problem was that Merkle, believing the game was over, never reached second base and started to head back to the dugout. Future Brave Johnny Evers saw this and implored his teammate to throw him the ball. He did and Evers forced Merkle at second base. The game would be suspended because of darkness and re-played on the season's final day - a game the Cubs would win to propel them into the World Series, which they also won. So, you see, Merkle's Boner doesn't happen without Tenney's back hurting too much to play that day.

5. Wally Berger
36.6 bWAR, 42.7 fWAR, .393 wOBA, 136 RC+
60 HOFm, 29 HOFs, 38.9 JAWS

Berger's .393 wOBA is just outside the Top 100 of all time. It's better than David Ortiz, Mike Piazza, Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew, and Willie McCovey. Only three players hit more homers during the 1930's than Berger and all three are in the Hall of Fame (Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, and Mel Ott). So, why is Berger on the outside looking in?

Similar to the case of Albert Belle, Berger was an elite outfielder who stands up well against his peers, many of whom are enshrined. But also like Belle, his run was shorten by injuries and his counting stats suffer considerably as a result. With that said, for several years after Berger arrived in Boston, he was one of the best in the game.

Photograph of the Boston Beaneaters infield, 1900. Top:
Fred Tenney (1B), Right: Herman Long (SS), Bottom: Jimmy Collins (3B)
and Left: Bobby Lowe (2B). Boston PublicLibrary (Public Domain)

4. Herman Long
35.2 bWAR, 41.1 fWAR, .342 wOBA, 93 RC+
88 HOFm, 41 HOFs, 30.9 JAWS

The original "Flying Dutchman," Long is another in the long line of 1800's Boston players whose career had long been over by the time the Hall of Fame opened its doors. Otherwise, Long likely would have been enshrined as one of the game's best shortstops of the 1890's. With time working against him, his numbers paled to compare to many other star shortstops. Unfortunately for Long, when he does show up in career leaderboards, it's not for the most flattering statistics. With 1,096 career errors, he is on top of a category no one wants to be. That said, many contemporaries felt he was one of the slickest fielding shortstops of his time.

As it stands, it's difficult for Long to receive much support because comparatively, his numbers just don't add up to a Hall of Fame plaque. For more on Long, I recently wrote about how he came to the franchise and how a convoluted Hall of Fame vote gave him an unusual amount of support.

3. Jim Whitney
33.5 bWAR, 47.2 fWAR, 2.75 FIP, 2 SV
110 HOFm, 31 HOFs, 35.9 JAWS

Grasshopper Jim was one of the game's first great pitchers and the Babe Ruth of his era (.323/.382/.510 in 1882). In an era where starters WERE the team, Whitney was a workhorse who threw 2263.2 innings for the Boston Beaneaters over just five years. He completed all but 12 of his 254 starts for Boston while finishing 1st to 5th in bWAR for four consecutive years.

Whitney continued to pitch for five years beyond his Boston days, but was never as dominant. His run to begin his career could have generated some Hall of Fame support. However, he just didn't have the lasting power to keep it going.

2. Dale Murphy
46.2 bWAR, 44.3 fWAR, .357 wOBA, 119 RC+
116 HOFm, 34 HOFs, 43.6 JAWS

It has long been a criticism of the Hall of Fame by Braves fans that The Murph wasn't enshrined. For 15 years, starting in 1999, Murphy languished on the ballot with little support. His best year, 2000, saw him still not reach a quarter of all ballots. Even a last-year effort by his supporters only garnered 18.6% of the vote in 2013.

The greatest detriment to Murphy's hopes were that his elite stage from 1982 to 1987 was Hall of Fame worthy, but that was just six years of a 14-year career. He was especially not worthy during his final five full seasons in which he slashed .238/.311/.403 while still under the age of 35. It leaves a bad last impression of Murphy along with dragging his numbers to fairly pedestrian totals for a Hall of Fame outfielder. That said, Murphy was always well-respected and could still get consideration from a Veterans Committee at some point.

1. Tommy Bond
41.2 bWAR, 36.9 fWAR, 2.41 FIP
142 HOFm, 48 HOFs, 61.9 JAWS

Not only is Bond the most deserving Brave to not be in the Hall of Fame, he is one of the most deserving players ever to be shut out. Born in Ireland, Bond came to the Boston Red Stockings in 1877 and in a time of rubber-armed players, Bond was as dominant as they come. Here's a fun number: 2127.1 innings. Why is that so fun? Because it came in just five years. Really, it came in four years because he made just three starts in 1881. To put that into context, Tim Hudson threw just over 1500 innings for the Braves in nine seasons.

It was a different game, no doubt, but Bond was as dominant as they come. For a four-year run, he completed 223-of-238 starts with 29 shutouts. In those 2100 or so innings, he walked just 140 batters, which comes out to a 0.6 BB/9 rate. Greg Maddux who? Bond threw a good fastball for the time, a wonderful curveball, and was particularly gifted at throwing the spitball.

Now, we can quibble about the lack of longevity, but he was elite in the major leagues and arguably the game's first true great pitcher. He became the first pitcher to win a Triple Crown in 1877 and of pitchers with at least 2000 innings pitched before 1900, Bond's career 2.51 FIP ranks second to John Ward. In terms of bWAR, he was the career leader in that category for five years from 1879 to 1883. However, when the Veterans Committee voted in 1936, Bond received just one point. That would be the end of Bond's chances to gain enshrinement. His only hope rests on the Early Baseball electorate of the Eras Committee (formerly the Veterans Committee). They next meet in 2020, though, and won't meet again until 2030. Bond, who died in 1941, will hopefully receive a longer look in three years than he received in '36.

Early 2018 Hall of Fame Thoughts

If you missed it yesterday, I posted my 2017 Hall of Fame ballot at Outfield Fly Rule. The guys at OFR are doing a wonderful job with their Hall of Fame coverage for this year, but what happens next year? Well, let's do some crystal balling.

First off, using Ryan Thibodaux's invaluable Hall of Fame tracker, I can make an educated guess as to who will be named to the Hall of Fame class of 2017. Jeff Bagwell seems like a lock and I believe Ivan Rodriguez gets in as well. Tim Raines would drop off the ballot regardless, but I think he'll receive the needed 3/4's percentage in his final year to avoid the travesty of snubbing Raines one last time.

Before we get too far into this, we are still early in the process. Over the last three years, Thibodaux's tracker of HOF ballots has included between 302 and 331 ballots and as much as 70.5% of the total ballots have been made public. So far, we have just 84 ballots. A lot can change to affect the three players I've mentioned and others that are on the borderline. My gut doubts that each of the players who have received at least 70% of the publicly known ballots will join the Hall of Fame class of 2017. I just want this to be clear, though - this is a theoretical exercise based in part on Thibodaux's tracker, recent history, and gut feelings.

With all that said, if I were to guess who will make up the '17 class, I would stick with the three I've already mentioned and add Trevor Hoffman. The former Padres closer was one of four returning players from last year's ballot who saw their percentage of total votes climb when the non-publicly known ballots were added to the total. To be fair, it was only a difference of about a percentage point, but since it was a rarity on last year's ballot, it stood out. Hoffman is sitting on the threshold right now. If someone is added to this class, it'll be him.

That leaves the steroid-tainted duo of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Their support has climbed into the 70% range early on and while I do believe it will drop, I think they will both be inducted very soon - likely in the same year and that could be 2018. Also in the steroid discussion is Manny Ramirez, who is not looking very strong so far with just 33% of the vote. He's a few years out from really having a case.

Edgar Martinez seems like he'll miss out in 2017, but is trending in the right direction. Of returning voters to this point, he has gained 13 votes and lost just one. He has just two more years of eligibility and might be a last-year guy much like Raines, who is the only player to have a higher net gain in returning voters than the former Mariners' star. In contrast to Martinez, Curt Schilling has lost 14 votes and gained just four. His politics and his personality are hurting him more than his numbers. My gut says he'll get voted in, but it may have to wait until his final year of eligibility.

A couple of other candidates that are trending up are Mike Mussina (+6) and Larry Walker (+7). While Walker is seeing a similar increase in gained votes, he trails Mussina by nearly 40% and received nearly 30% fewer total votes last year. Mussina's trend makes him a likely Hall of Famer over the next couple of seasons. Walker is going to need a major movement to join him.

One last candidate to go over before we look at the ballot newbies for 2018. Vladimir Guerrero has just three less votes than Hoffman to this point and one more vote than Clemens and Bonds. I don't think the voters will make him a first-ballot guy, but he seems like a good bet to make it in 2018.

Next year's rookie class includes four players with a 100 or better Hall of Fame Monitor, which gives them a likely chance to be selected for the Hall of Fame. Two of those players pass 50 in the Hall of Fame standards scale, which means they rank as an average Hall of Famer or better. First, the two that didn't grade well on both and both share one thing in common - elite defense. Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones both have fascinating arguments to join the Hall of Fame and my personal belief is that both are deserving. I think Andruw is an easy selection because once you remove the "he didn't live up to the hype" part of the argument, you can find a Hall of Fame resume. In regards to Vizquel, I make the argument that if you elect a player like Ozzie Smith, why not Vizquel?

The two players who passed both the HOFm and HOFs criteria are Jim Thome and Chipper Jones. My belief is that Thome will be passed on for stupid reasons (position, park, he DH'd some) while Chipper is a first ballot guy. John Smoltz was more of a borderline case and he received nearly 83% of the vote in 2015. People need to quit believing the media is against Atlanta. As we have seen over the last few years, they award the stars of the 90's era quickly and rather overwhelming despite deserving criticisms. While I doubt Andruw makes it in with Chipper in 2018, Andruw is a sure bet to get in eventually. More and more baseball writers are valuing defensive metrics, which will only boost Andruw's case.

So, to recap - my guess is that Bagwell, Rodriguez, and Hoffman will join Raines in this year's class. With that in mind, my early prediction for the 2018 class will be Chipper, Guerrero, Bonds, and Clemens.

Moving forward, I believe Mariano Rivera will be a first ballot guy in 2019 with Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Halladay becoming prime candidates in the years that follow provided none of the trio make it in 2019 (and I doubt they do).

2020's class only has one Hall of Famer in Derek Jeter and he's a first ballot guy. There are no Hall of Famers among the 2021 lot. This is good news for candidates currently on the ballot and those joining in 2018 and 2019 as it will help clear up some of the backlog.

Did I miss the mark on anyone? Let me know.

Why Fred McGriff is a "No" for the Hall

While we were gushing over Ken Griffey Jr. voting totals (read my profile of him as The Almost Brave) or how Mike Piazza's back acne wasn't enough to keep him out of the HOF for a fourth year or how Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell look like they will get in next year...one topic was brought up on a couple of occasions by the AJC's David O'Brien. "(Fred) McGriff's total up, but still only 20.9 percent. Ridiculous." "He should get more (votes) IMO. A lot more."

Focus on Sport | Getty Images

O'Brien is certainly entitled to his opinion. The AJC bars DOB from voting, but if he did, his hypothetical ballot would have had Fred McGriff, Junior, Piazza, Bagwell, and Raines on it along with Trevor Hoffman and Larry Walker. It's not the worst ballot - hypothetical or otherwise - but considering his support for the Crime Dog, my question is - and really the focus of this post - does McGriff deserve such a push?

I tend to side with "no." The problem with McGriff is really this simple - he really never stood out. He was a good player who accomplished some very impressive things, but during the era he played (1986-2004), he ranks 20th in fWAR with 56.9 . If anything should tell you about where a player ranks, it's a stat like that because it truly should benefit McGriff. I'm taking his whole career into account, but for other players, it might just be a part of their careers (players who began their careers before '86 or played beyond '04). If position accounts for much, McGriff ranks sixth among 1B during that time period. Here's the Top 5:

Bagwell - 80.2 fWAR
Rafael Palmeiro - 70.2 fWAR
Frank Thomas - 67.7 fWAR
Mark McGwire - 66.3 fWAR
John Olerud - 57.3 fWAR

Presumably, Bagwell will be elected next year and Thomas joined two years ago. Palmeiro and McGwire were tarnished by steroids. That leaves Olerud and McGriff, teammates in 1989 and '90 with the Blue Jays. Olerud certainly didn't reach the big HR numbers that McGriff did (he pulls ahead on defense), but their careers are pretty similar. Incredibly so, actually. Here is a glimpse at some stats to show that.



Yet, Olerud received 4 Hall of Fame votes in 2011 in his only year on the ballot. Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that there aren't other things at play here (namely 493 career homeruns), nor that Olerud deserved more consideration (or even equal consideration to McGriff). My only criticism here is that O'Brien's contention that McGriff deserves a lot more votes seems unrealistic to me. Juan Gonzalez, who was a better player than either McGriff or Olerud, barely lasted one year on the ballot before falling off.

It's worth mentioning that unlike McGriff, Gonzalez has some ties to steroids due to a weird incident in the Mitchell Report and accusations by Jose Canseco. Gonzalez denies it, but it likely played a role in stifling any support for Gonzalez sticking around on the ballot. This leads us to, essentially, McGriff's rallying cry. He did it clean. Unlike so many other power hitters of the time period, there has not been the first accusation that McGriff was on any performance-enhancing drug. Others, including Piazza, are voted against on the hint of allegations, but because McGriff doesn't have that, it seems like it makes his accomplishments more impressive.

The problem for me is that this argument does little to help a player's claim as one of baseball's elite. That's the whole purpose of the Hall of Fame, no? It reminds me all too much of the arguments presented about Dale Murphy. The numbers and on-the-field accomplishments fell short, but Murphy was a "Hall of Fame person." In an era where we penalize potential Hall of Famers for their personal demons, should we prop up someone who did it the "right way" even if that "right way" wasn't good enough to lead to a Hall of Fame career? My answer is an emphatic no. I love Murphy and I especially love McGriff. In this blog, I've announced my Favorite Braves team - guys I watched and loved. He's my starting first baseman. But that's not enough for me to turn a "no" into a "yes" when it comes to the Crime Dog's candidacy for the Hall of Fame.

I hate to use this cliche, but McGriff definitely is a member of the Hall of Really Good Players. He was never a top player, either at his position or in his league, but he was very consistent and posted an wRC+ of 131 to 162 each year from '87 to '94. His decline from greatness happened the next year, but he remained productive up until 2003 and 2004, when he stuck around essentially to reach 500 homeruns. He was also great in the postseason, belting 10 homeruns as a Brave with a .917 OPS.

But Hall of Famers should be compared to the players at their position while they played as part of the criteria and McGriff falls short - especially compared to the careers of Thomas and Bagwell (one a HOFer, the other soon to be). Increasing the timeline to include the last 30 years, McGriff's career falls further into perspective. If he's a Hall of Fame player, is Lance Berkman? If McGriff is in the Hall, why isn't Olerud? Why isn't Will Clark? Or Keith Hernandez?

Here's one final thought on McGriff. In his 19-year career, he led his team in bWAR just three times - twice with the Jays, once with the Rays.

He simply never stood out.