Player: Leudys Baez
Date of Scouting Report: 8/27/2017
Age: 21 in 2017
How acquired: International Free Agent in 2014
Salary: Minimum for his level
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Brief Bio:
Originally signed back in 2012 by the Nationals, but released less than a year later without playing, Baez made his professional debut in 2015 and hammered the Appalachian League for four homers over 33 games before earning a promotion to Rome, where he struggled to finish the year. More struggles followed in 2016 before a serious knee injury ended his season. Opened 2017 back in Danville with a big July, that included an OPS over 1.000. He was brought back to Rome and has held his own over his first month back in the South Atlantic League.
For more biographical information, click this Random Prospect Sunday profile.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
His tools make it easy to figure out why the Braves gave Baez a $400,000 bonus as an 18-year-old. Could be capable of big power numbers with tweaks to his batting stance, but currently, sports more of a line-drive, even swing that will keep his power muted to some extent. That said, previous tweaks have led to a more balanced batting stance in which he utilizes a big leg kick to push his weight back before exploding forward. Hits the ball extremely hard. Metrics don't yet exist in the low minors to register it, but likely rates highly in average exit velocity. Big pull numbers in the mid-to-high 40% range. Curiously, hits the ball the other way about twice as much as he hits it up the middle, suggesting that if you get him going the other way, it'll likely lead to an out.
Routinely has had a plus-50% groundball rate despite hitting the ball so hard - which gets back to his swing. Also pops up the ball far too often. The latter likely comes back to pitch recognition, which Baez has struggled at professionally. Walk rate over the previous three seasons - 2.2%, 7.7%, 7.7%. Compare that with these strikeout rates - 22.8%, 29.7%, 22.5%. In addition, when you watch him, you get the impression that he's simply not in the batter's box to earn walks. He wants to hit the ball and hit it as hard as possible. Not only will such a mentality lead to strikeouts and muted walk numbers, but a heavy reliance on BABIP. When it's good - as it has been unsustainably so this season - his numbers look tremendous. When it declines, so does his production.
To this point, Baez has flashed the typical splits for young switch-hitters who often hit right-handers better as a result of the frequency of seeing them. Against lefties, Baez has a three-season OPS run of .491, .444, 663. Compare that with his success against righties - .802, .612, .989. It's still a small sample size because he has yet to log a complete season at full-season ball, but I can't say I'm surprised by the data.
Baez lacks great quickness, though his top-end speed is good enough. He shows good instincts on the basepaths, though his inability to get a good jump on pitchers could keep him from having many double-digit steal seasons - if any. This season, he's only 2-of-6 in steals and it should be remembered that he missed significant time last year with a knee injury.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Hit (30), Power (30), Speed (45), Baserunning (50), Eye (25), Discipline (25)
Potential Grades...Hit (50), Power (45), Speed (45), Baserunning (55), Eye (30), Discipline (30)
Pitching Observations and Grades:
N/A
Defensive Observations and Grades:
Baez was originally signed by the Nationals as a shortstop, but has only played outfield with the Braves. While he's athletic, Baez lacks the kind of range needed to play center field. He flashes very good instincts, leading to smart routes on balls hit to the outfield, though Baez takes four-or-five steps to really get going to his top speed. Once he's going, though, he uses above-average speed and those great instincts to track balls well. He has a very strong arm and is accurate with it, which could keep him in right field moving forward.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale at LF/RF...Range (55), Arm (65), Arm Accuracy (55), Hands (60)
Future Projection:
Baez is a guy I called a light-switch prospect. At any point, the light switch could be flipped on and Baez could become a Top 20 organizational prospect. His pitch recognition limitations will likely keep him from climbing any further, but there is legit major league potential here. Could see him settling into a .275/.330/.475-type prime as a starter, but that's a best-case scenario - something that rarely turns into a reality for a 21-year-old kid at low-A ball who is right now the third-best outfield prospect on his team.
Hitting left-handed (2017)
Hitting right-handed (2015)
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Showing posts with label ScoutingReports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ScoutingReports. Show all posts
Sunday, August 27, 2017
Sunday, August 20, 2017
Scouting Report - Corbin Clouse
Player: Corbin Clouse
Date of Scouting Report: August 20, 2017
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Switch
Throws: Left
Age: 22 in 2017
How Acquired: 27th Rd, 2016
Salary: Minimum
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration (If applicable): 3
Brief Bio:
Selected from the small Davenport University in 2017 as a pitcher who only focused on the act of pitching as a senior in high school. Improved each season at DU before the selection. Was filthy over four games with Danville with 16 K's in 6.2 ING (22 batters faced) before a promotion to Rome. Retained big K numbers there, though control becomes more an issue. Opened 2017 by struggling with Florida, but strung together 20 consecutive appearances where he allowed no earned runs before a promotion to Mississippi in mid-2017.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
Was a former outfielder, but a back injury suffered in college made him uncomfortable in the batter's box. No opportunity to grade him at this point.
Pitching Observations and Grades:
At 6'0" and 230 pounds, Clouse is a sturdy presence on the mound. A typical reliever in that you only see him coming out of the stretch. Throws from a low 3/4's slot. High leg kick to the plate often sees Clouse fall off notably to the third base side of the mound as he comes through. So much movement in his delivery can be difficult at times to repeat for Clouse, who has been known to rush through the delivery or simply not finish his follow-through, which can cause his pitches to flatten and push up into the zone. He's shown a willingness to pitch inside and not nibble as he tries to put away hitters.
Threw up to five pitches in college, but utilizes both a sinker and slider since going professional. Lacks prototypical velocity for modern relievers, but makes up for a fastball that tops out around 91-92 mph with great movement when his delivery is on point. Utilizes the pitch effectively against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. The pitch has been known to tail off to both sides, making it even less predictable. Typically reaches the batter on a downward plane as the hitter begins his swing with the ball above his knees, but adjusts to a ball following to his knees or below. When he consistently keeps the ball down, it's very difficult to elevate especially with any force.
Clouse's slider is his best weapon. Running in the low-to-mid 80's, it quickly breaks away to left-handers and into righties. Not only does it have typical glove-side fade of a slider, but drops almost like a curve with plenty of depth. It's a true strikeout pitch and is his ticket to the majors should he command it consistently.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (50), Movement (60), Control (55)
Potential Grades...Velocity (50), Movement (65), Control (60)
Individual Pitch Grades...Sinker (50), Slider (60)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Sinker (60), Slider (70)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (60), Speed to the Plate (55)
Defensive Observations and Grades:
Because Clouse falls off to the third-base side on much on his delivery, he's vulnerable to bunts and other hits the other way. He's agile and a better athlete than one might think at first glance, but in order to get some of the movement that he does get, he sacrifices some other parts of his game. No grade at this time, but hard to see him as more than an average fielder.
Future Projection:
If he continues to get whiffs on his slider as he progresses up the ladder, Clouse has the potential to be a full-inning, high-leverage reliever in the major leagues. May need to develop a third pitch to keep righties a little more off-balanced - possibly a changeup, which he rarely used in college. The more conservative future role for Clouse is a left-hand specialist and while he has struggled more against them than righties this season, much of that is due to a BABIP of a shade over .400 against left-handed hitters. Regardless, Clouse has a major league arm if he stays healthy and his progression does not stagnate.
Credit: Adam Hayes
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Date of Scouting Report: August 20, 2017
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Switch
Throws: Left
Age: 22 in 2017
How Acquired: 27th Rd, 2016
Salary: Minimum
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration (If applicable): 3
Brief Bio:
Selected from the small Davenport University in 2017 as a pitcher who only focused on the act of pitching as a senior in high school. Improved each season at DU before the selection. Was filthy over four games with Danville with 16 K's in 6.2 ING (22 batters faced) before a promotion to Rome. Retained big K numbers there, though control becomes more an issue. Opened 2017 by struggling with Florida, but strung together 20 consecutive appearances where he allowed no earned runs before a promotion to Mississippi in mid-2017.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
Was a former outfielder, but a back injury suffered in college made him uncomfortable in the batter's box. No opportunity to grade him at this point.
Pitching Observations and Grades:
At 6'0" and 230 pounds, Clouse is a sturdy presence on the mound. A typical reliever in that you only see him coming out of the stretch. Throws from a low 3/4's slot. High leg kick to the plate often sees Clouse fall off notably to the third base side of the mound as he comes through. So much movement in his delivery can be difficult at times to repeat for Clouse, who has been known to rush through the delivery or simply not finish his follow-through, which can cause his pitches to flatten and push up into the zone. He's shown a willingness to pitch inside and not nibble as he tries to put away hitters.
Threw up to five pitches in college, but utilizes both a sinker and slider since going professional. Lacks prototypical velocity for modern relievers, but makes up for a fastball that tops out around 91-92 mph with great movement when his delivery is on point. Utilizes the pitch effectively against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. The pitch has been known to tail off to both sides, making it even less predictable. Typically reaches the batter on a downward plane as the hitter begins his swing with the ball above his knees, but adjusts to a ball following to his knees or below. When he consistently keeps the ball down, it's very difficult to elevate especially with any force.
Clouse's slider is his best weapon. Running in the low-to-mid 80's, it quickly breaks away to left-handers and into righties. Not only does it have typical glove-side fade of a slider, but drops almost like a curve with plenty of depth. It's a true strikeout pitch and is his ticket to the majors should he command it consistently.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (50), Movement (60), Control (55)
Potential Grades...Velocity (50), Movement (65), Control (60)
Individual Pitch Grades...Sinker (50), Slider (60)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Sinker (60), Slider (70)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (60), Speed to the Plate (55)
Defensive Observations and Grades:
Because Clouse falls off to the third-base side on much on his delivery, he's vulnerable to bunts and other hits the other way. He's agile and a better athlete than one might think at first glance, but in order to get some of the movement that he does get, he sacrifices some other parts of his game. No grade at this time, but hard to see him as more than an average fielder.
Future Projection:
If he continues to get whiffs on his slider as he progresses up the ladder, Clouse has the potential to be a full-inning, high-leverage reliever in the major leagues. May need to develop a third pitch to keep righties a little more off-balanced - possibly a changeup, which he rarely used in college. The more conservative future role for Clouse is a left-hand specialist and while he has struggled more against them than righties this season, much of that is due to a BABIP of a shade over .400 against left-handed hitters. Regardless, Clouse has a major league arm if he stays healthy and his progression does not stagnate.
Credit: Adam Hayes
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Scouting Report - Huascar Ynoa
Yesterday, the Braves traded Jaime Garcia to the Twins - along with Anthony Recker and a bag of money - and acquired Huascar Ynoa. Stephen Tolbert did a tremendous job going over the trade. Today's focus is on Ynoa, though. Here is a scouting report on the young pitcher.
Player: Huascar Ynoa
Date of Scouting Report: 7/25/17 by Tommy Poe
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 19
How Acquired: Trade, 7/24/17
Salary: Minor League Minimum
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration (If applicable): 3
Brief Bio: Ynoa was a top pitching prospect during the 2014 J2 Class. Signed for $800,000 by the Twins, Ynoa ranked 17th on the international prospects MLB.com list while ranking 14th on Baseball America's Top 30 list. A product of the Dominican Republic, Ynoa was lauded for his frontline starter potential and some sources felt he was the best pitching prospect in the class - better than Christopher Acosta (Red Sox), Anderson Espinoza (also Red Sox), Juan Meza (Blue Jays), and Franklin Perez (Astros). Interestingly, the Braves' top signing that year, Juan Yepez, missed the MLB Top 30, but now the Braves have two members from that class in Ynoa (#17) and catcher Ricardo Rodriguez (#30).
Ynoa made his debut the following summer in the Dominican Summer League. Just 17 years-old, Ynoa was solid over 14 starts with 19% strikeout rate. He did walk 12%, which lowered his FIP to 3.84, but all-in-all, it was a good debut season for the teenager still learning how to pitch. He headed to the Gulf Coast League the following season and improved his numbers a good deal with a 24% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. Like the previous season, he allowed just one homer but threw seven fewer wild pitches in 5.2 fewer innings.
This season, Ynoa came out the gate and struck out seven Danville Braves in his season debut, which resulted in a loss. He allowed four earned runs combined over four of his first five starts, but his stinkers were especially bad (5 walks, 5 ER over 2 innings on 7/10, 6 ER on 7/23). His numbers in those games especially have put a significant hurting on his season line.
Ynoa is listed at 6'3" and 175 pounds, which is interesting because he was 6'2" and 190 lbs. when he signed. I've also seen some sources list him at 220 lbs., which is a bit more believable. He has a great pitcher's frame and has yet to spend any time on the DL.
At the time of the trade, Ynoa was ranked #22 by MLB Pipeline in a Twins system that was ranked about middle-of-the-pack in terms of organizational talent. John Sickels ranked Ynoa #14th before the season and spoke highly about Ynoa's curveball. He also praised Ynoa's improving mechanics and command. Recently, Twins Daily left him out of their Midseason Top 15.
Offensive Observations and Grades: N/A
Pitching Observations and Grades: Ynoa starts with his hands at his stomach when pitching from the wind-up. He'll bring the glove up to about neck-high with a leg kick that's not too pronounced. Early on, it looked like his release point was a high 3/4's, but that looks to have dropped to a regular 3/4's release point. His motion to the plate is very fluid and he's quick to the plate - almost too quick. His mechanics can sometimes come out of whack as he tries to get through his motion - especially with runners on base. He might be better served by incorporating a pause or something to force him to push his weight back to allow his mechanics to come through better. The plus side is Ynoa won't waste much time between pitches, which will help keep his infielders on their toes.
When Ynoa signed with the Twins, one thing that stood out about him is that for a young pitcher, he had a robust repertoire of pitches - a fastball, splitter, slider, changeup, and a curve. The Twins have worked to widdle that down to a three-pitch mix - heater, change, and a slider that is more of a slurve.
His fastball has not added much velocity since signing. Instead, he's still trying to find the stamina to not lose velocity the second time through the order. His heater averages in the low 90's with a max in the 94-95 mph range, though I have seen him listed at hitting 97 mph. He's still growing into his body and should find more consistent velocity as he gets older.
Despite still being a teenager, Ynoa has always flashed both good mechanics with his changeup and an excellent feel for the pitch. The velocity drops into the low-to-mid 80's with similar arm motion and speed as his fastball. When he's on, he can spot his changeup on the corners and low in the zone, which induces a good deal of weak contact.
His breaking pitch is a slider/slurve that flashes some good sweeping movement with bite. Like any of his deliveries, consistency is a problem. One start, the pitch could be the low 80's with swing-and-miss stuff. During his next start, it could be in the mid-80's and flat. I believe much of that is due to his inability to consistently repeat his delivery to this point.
The Twins pushed Ynoa to scrap his splitter and curveball. The Braves preach curveballs so they may have a different plan. Either way, his curve does have some good movement when he can hit his release point with it. It might not be a plus-pitch, but could be a good second-time-thru-the-order pitch to showcase here-and-there.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (50), Movement (45), Control (40)
Potential Grades...Velocity (60), Movement (55), Control (55)
Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (40), Changeup (45), Slider (35), Curveball (30)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Changeup (60), Slider (55), Curveball (45)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (N/A), Speed to the Plate (60)
Defensive Observations and Grades: No grade is given right now, but Ynoa's follow-through takes his momentum toward the first base side of the mound, making him vulnerable to bunts toward third. He shows good athletism and a feel for knowing to cover first base.
Future Projection: There is a lot of raw talent here despite being in his third season. The Twins have played it very conservative with him and I doubt the Braves will change that just yet. Ynoa is a project with a high ceiling, but enough questions revolving around him to believe he may never get there. If the slider develops and there is more consistency with his delivery and velocity, Ynoa could profile as a reliever down the line. If his slider develops a lot and his changeup becomes a great pitch - along with increased control and tighter mechanics - Ynoa could be a starter in the major leagues and a potentially really good one at that.
Ynoa is similar in some regards to Ricardo Sanchez. Another young kid who was a big international signing, the Braves liked Sanchez's pitchability and maturity. Ynoa has that. What he doesn't have is the results to support the belief that he's much closer to realizing his potential than he was when he signed. Perhaps with the Braves coaching helping him, that might change. Like our Stephen Tolbert said of him, "he's a lottery ticket." Most of the time, lottery tickets don't win. Some of the time, you might get your investment back or maybe even get a $20 scratcher. It's hard to find that big winner, but Ynoa once had many scouts believing he could be that big winner. Perhaps he still can be.
Realistically, Ynoa has the most likely projection of being a low-leverage reliever in the majors. But there are reasons to be optimistic here and Ynoa's profile is worthy of some degree of optimism here.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
 |
| Jon Tarr - YouTube |
Date of Scouting Report: 7/25/17 by Tommy Poe
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 19
How Acquired: Trade, 7/24/17
Salary: Minor League Minimum
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration (If applicable): 3
Brief Bio: Ynoa was a top pitching prospect during the 2014 J2 Class. Signed for $800,000 by the Twins, Ynoa ranked 17th on the international prospects MLB.com list while ranking 14th on Baseball America's Top 30 list. A product of the Dominican Republic, Ynoa was lauded for his frontline starter potential and some sources felt he was the best pitching prospect in the class - better than Christopher Acosta (Red Sox), Anderson Espinoza (also Red Sox), Juan Meza (Blue Jays), and Franklin Perez (Astros). Interestingly, the Braves' top signing that year, Juan Yepez, missed the MLB Top 30, but now the Braves have two members from that class in Ynoa (#17) and catcher Ricardo Rodriguez (#30).
Ynoa made his debut the following summer in the Dominican Summer League. Just 17 years-old, Ynoa was solid over 14 starts with 19% strikeout rate. He did walk 12%, which lowered his FIP to 3.84, but all-in-all, it was a good debut season for the teenager still learning how to pitch. He headed to the Gulf Coast League the following season and improved his numbers a good deal with a 24% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. Like the previous season, he allowed just one homer but threw seven fewer wild pitches in 5.2 fewer innings.
This season, Ynoa came out the gate and struck out seven Danville Braves in his season debut, which resulted in a loss. He allowed four earned runs combined over four of his first five starts, but his stinkers were especially bad (5 walks, 5 ER over 2 innings on 7/10, 6 ER on 7/23). His numbers in those games especially have put a significant hurting on his season line.
Ynoa is listed at 6'3" and 175 pounds, which is interesting because he was 6'2" and 190 lbs. when he signed. I've also seen some sources list him at 220 lbs., which is a bit more believable. He has a great pitcher's frame and has yet to spend any time on the DL.
At the time of the trade, Ynoa was ranked #22 by MLB Pipeline in a Twins system that was ranked about middle-of-the-pack in terms of organizational talent. John Sickels ranked Ynoa #14th before the season and spoke highly about Ynoa's curveball. He also praised Ynoa's improving mechanics and command. Recently, Twins Daily left him out of their Midseason Top 15.
Offensive Observations and Grades: N/A
Pitching Observations and Grades: Ynoa starts with his hands at his stomach when pitching from the wind-up. He'll bring the glove up to about neck-high with a leg kick that's not too pronounced. Early on, it looked like his release point was a high 3/4's, but that looks to have dropped to a regular 3/4's release point. His motion to the plate is very fluid and he's quick to the plate - almost too quick. His mechanics can sometimes come out of whack as he tries to get through his motion - especially with runners on base. He might be better served by incorporating a pause or something to force him to push his weight back to allow his mechanics to come through better. The plus side is Ynoa won't waste much time between pitches, which will help keep his infielders on their toes.
When Ynoa signed with the Twins, one thing that stood out about him is that for a young pitcher, he had a robust repertoire of pitches - a fastball, splitter, slider, changeup, and a curve. The Twins have worked to widdle that down to a three-pitch mix - heater, change, and a slider that is more of a slurve.
His fastball has not added much velocity since signing. Instead, he's still trying to find the stamina to not lose velocity the second time through the order. His heater averages in the low 90's with a max in the 94-95 mph range, though I have seen him listed at hitting 97 mph. He's still growing into his body and should find more consistent velocity as he gets older.
Despite still being a teenager, Ynoa has always flashed both good mechanics with his changeup and an excellent feel for the pitch. The velocity drops into the low-to-mid 80's with similar arm motion and speed as his fastball. When he's on, he can spot his changeup on the corners and low in the zone, which induces a good deal of weak contact.
His breaking pitch is a slider/slurve that flashes some good sweeping movement with bite. Like any of his deliveries, consistency is a problem. One start, the pitch could be the low 80's with swing-and-miss stuff. During his next start, it could be in the mid-80's and flat. I believe much of that is due to his inability to consistently repeat his delivery to this point.
The Twins pushed Ynoa to scrap his splitter and curveball. The Braves preach curveballs so they may have a different plan. Either way, his curve does have some good movement when he can hit his release point with it. It might not be a plus-pitch, but could be a good second-time-thru-the-order pitch to showcase here-and-there.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (50), Movement (45), Control (40)
Potential Grades...Velocity (60), Movement (55), Control (55)
Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (40), Changeup (45), Slider (35), Curveball (30)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Changeup (60), Slider (55), Curveball (45)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (N/A), Speed to the Plate (60)
Defensive Observations and Grades: No grade is given right now, but Ynoa's follow-through takes his momentum toward the first base side of the mound, making him vulnerable to bunts toward third. He shows good athletism and a feel for knowing to cover first base.
Future Projection: There is a lot of raw talent here despite being in his third season. The Twins have played it very conservative with him and I doubt the Braves will change that just yet. Ynoa is a project with a high ceiling, but enough questions revolving around him to believe he may never get there. If the slider develops and there is more consistency with his delivery and velocity, Ynoa could profile as a reliever down the line. If his slider develops a lot and his changeup becomes a great pitch - along with increased control and tighter mechanics - Ynoa could be a starter in the major leagues and a potentially really good one at that.
Ynoa is similar in some regards to Ricardo Sanchez. Another young kid who was a big international signing, the Braves liked Sanchez's pitchability and maturity. Ynoa has that. What he doesn't have is the results to support the belief that he's much closer to realizing his potential than he was when he signed. Perhaps with the Braves coaching helping him, that might change. Like our Stephen Tolbert said of him, "he's a lottery ticket." Most of the time, lottery tickets don't win. Some of the time, you might get your investment back or maybe even get a $20 scratcher. It's hard to find that big winner, but Ynoa once had many scouts believing he could be that big winner. Perhaps he still can be.
Realistically, Ynoa has the most likely projection of being a low-leverage reliever in the majors. But there are reasons to be optimistic here and Ynoa's profile is worthy of some degree of optimism here.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
Scouting Report: Kevin Josephina
Date of Scouting Report: 5/14/17
Age: 20 in 2017
How acquired: International Free Agent in 2013
Salary: Minimum for his level
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Brief Bio:
It's been a slow beginning for Josephina after signing with the Braves on the same day as the fellow switch-hitting infielder from Curacao, Ozzie Albies. He played just nine games in 2014 and 22 the following year. In 2016, He upped that to 50 games, including a summer-run with the Rome Braves that included a .267/.259/.382 slash over 37 games. Currently, he's in a second season with Rome and hitting .298/.343/.330. After just 9 steals in 13 attempts heading in 81 games, Josephina has stolen 8-of-10. He is listed at 6'0" and 170 pounds.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
Flashes a strong hit tool when he connects and has batted .281 over the last three years. Strikes out a bit too frequently for his skill set, though, with 20% of his plate appearances ending in a strikeout - including 23.5% so far this year. That would be more acceptable if he had more pop, which was the hope when he signed. So far, 20 of his 106 career hits have gone for extras (.070 ISO). That did improve last year by about forty points but has regressed this season. The other thing that stands out about Josephina is how driven by BABIP his skillset is as he simply will not walk. While he's already set a new personal high with six so far in Rome, that's just three below his career output coming into this year. Only 4% of his plate appearances have turned into a walk.
To this point, Josephina has displayed a strong platoon difference in which he hits much better as a left-handed hitter against right-handed pitching than the vice versa. This is not abnormal, but if not corrected, it'll be yet another limitation on his portfolio that will hold him back.
Josephina sets up with his legs slightly bent and keeps his body upright until the pitch is delivered. At that point, he shortens the zone by crouching a bit. His swing is compact, but from what I have seen, he does have a bit of pronounced pull element to it. He pushes his weight back as he crouches down and brings it forward. His swing leads to plenty of grounders and his success comes down to what he's doing with the rest of his swings. Last year, he had nearly a 30% flyball rate. It's down to 15% this year with the difference mostly coming in line drives.
On the basepaths, Josephina does have a reputation as a speedster, but struggled to translate that speed into a weapon. Part of that was certainly due to a below-average OBP heading into this season. He's gotten on base more frequently and used his speed more frequently and efficiently. Probably not a significant base stealer, but enough to challenge for twenty steals.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Hit (35), Power (20), Speed (55), Baserunning (50), Eye (25), Discipline (25)
Potential Grades...Hit (55), Power (30), Speed (55), Baserunning (60), Eye (30), Discipline (40)
Pitching Observations and Grades:
N/A
Defensive Observations and Grades:
When signed, Josephina was expected to play shortstop or possibly outgrow the position and switch to third base. Instead, he's played over 80% of his games at second base, which does appear the best position for him. Like many second baseman, he's good going to his left and is capable of making all of the throws. Josephina isn't as comfortable going to his right, but has a good first step. When slotted across the second base bag, his limitations shine a bit more. He doesn't have the arm to make all of the throws at shortstop, nor the accuracy. He's played three games at third base and probably won't be able to play the position too often. As young defenders are prone to do, he can rush his mechanics a bit too much. If his best-case scenario is as a utility player, he could shift to the outfield for a few games here-and-there over the next couple of seasons.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale at 2B...Range (60), Arm (55), Arm Accuracy (55), Hands (55)
Future Projection:
At just 20, Josephina still can add muscle and mature. His plate discipline issues, however, may be too severe to correct. At this point, it's difficult to project much more than a utility player when you grade Josephina. Will his bat be able to develop despite considerable flaws? I would think it is unlikely, but there is enough potential here to see a possible future.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and I might alter mine and give credit to you.
Monday, January 16, 2017
Scouting Report - Aaron Blair
Player: Aaron Blair
Date of Scouting Report: 1/16/17
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 25 on 5/26/17
How Acquired: Traded from Arizona (12/15)
Salary: Unknown
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration: 3
Brief Bio:
The 36th overall selection of the 2013 draft out of Marshall, Blair became a hot prospect after a 2014 campaign that saw him log 154 innings with 171 strikeouts as he climbed from low-A ball to Double-A. He followed it up with a big 2015, though his strikeouts fell as he reached Triple-A. After the season, he was acquired with Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in the Shelby Miller trade. He would go on to split 2016 between Triple-A and Atlanta, though he wasn't impressive at either spot.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
In three seasons since beginning to pick up the bat again, Blair has just four hits at the minor league level and one in the majors. He does have a minor league homer, though the frequency for turning a minor league plate appearance into a sacrifice bunt is slightly below the average you are looking for (8%-10%). He received 23 PA in the majors last year and struck out 9 times. Two of the three times he attempted a sacrifice bunt, he was successful. He's never attempted a steal and appears to lack athleticism to be anything but a bad base runner.
Ungraded
Pitching Observations and Grades:
From the windup, Blair keeps the ball about waist-high until a high leg kick. During this, Blair keeps the ball well-hidden by cocking his body at an angle. He pitches from the first-base side of the rubber and gets good extension with a high 3/4's delivery. He cuts things down from the stretch and gets the ball to the plate with good speed throughout his delivery. He rarely was ran on by opposing teams in the minors as a result. The two best things about his delivery are the deception he creates to hide the ball and how he effortlessly he repeats his motion. To this point, he's been very durable on the mound.
The Braves either attempted to tweak his mechanics or they were coming a bit out of whack as he was pitching out of a higher release point be season's end. The silvering lining is if it was intentional, it may have helped Blair throw his best major league start on October 1 where he struck out ten compared to one walk.
Blair has a five-pitch mix beginning with both a four-seam and two-seam fastball. Each averaged out at about 91-92 mph with max-speed of about 94 mph. He gets good downward movement from the four-seamer, but struggles to throw the pitch consistently for strikes. He abandoned the two-seam fastball as the season progressed and in the final few months utilized it solely to keep lefties off balance. It helped generate some groundballs, but he also struggled to entice enough hitters to swing at it.
His breaking pitches, the curveball and slider, aren't plus-plus pitches. The curve has little break from a 12-6 drop and averages about 77-79 mph. The slider was not used in the majors until he returned in August and was almost exclusively a weapon against right-handed batters. It averages around 80-81 mph and, like his curve, has not shown much bite.
Blair's best pitch is his changeup, though like his curve, we rarely saw it over his final four starts. At 85-86 mph, there is only about a 6 mph difference from his fastball, but that appears to help it confuse batters. None of Blair's pitches have better siwng-and-miss potential than his changeup, which is why it was confusing he abandoned it.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (55), Movement (55, Control (55)
Potential Grades...Velocity (55), Movement (60), Control (65)
Individual Pitch Grades...Four-Seam Fastball (55), Sinker (50), Curveball (50), Slider (45), Changeup (60)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (60), Sinker (55) Curveball (55), Slider (50), Changeup (65)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (60), Speed to the Plate (60)
Defensive Observations and Grades:
There's not a lot of information related to Blair's defense to this point. While he has a slow follow-through, his finish only takes him to the first base side slightly, which leaves him a bit vulnerable to balls to the third-base side of the mound. That said, he appears to field his position well.
Ungraded
Future Projection:
Blair's 2016 was pretty miserable and not only because his major league numbers underwhelmed. In the minors, he was getting pretty lit up (though his strikeout numbers were fine and his 3.38 FIP indicated future corrections). Worse, his control was as bad as it had ever been with walk rates 2% higher than normal. While he was able to get a number of swinging strikes, his ability to get ahead was very poor and he pitched far too often outside of the strikezone. Only 30% of the pitches he threw in the majors were with him ahead in the count - the average is 36%. Conversely, 22% of his pitches came with Blair behind compared to a 17% average.
These developments were a little new for Blair, who progressed through the minors as a strong strike-rate guy who's sum of pitches is greater than any individual pitch. The Braves tweaked with Blair last year and he'll likely return to Gwinnett in 2016 to continue to work on his issues. He still has some projection, but it's limited to a durable middle-of-the-rotation arm similar to the player Gavin Floyd was expected to be. To get there, he's going to have to hit his spots more frequently and use his changeup better.
Videos
Pre-Draft with Marshall (Baseball America)
2014 with Mobile, Arizona's Double-A team (Fangraphs)
Major League debut (MLB.com)
Final start of 2016 (MLB.com)
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Date of Scouting Report: 1/16/17
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Age: 25 on 5/26/17
How Acquired: Traded from Arizona (12/15)
Salary: Unknown
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Years Before Arbitration: 3
 |
| By Editosaurus (Own work) , via Wikimedia Commons |
The 36th overall selection of the 2013 draft out of Marshall, Blair became a hot prospect after a 2014 campaign that saw him log 154 innings with 171 strikeouts as he climbed from low-A ball to Double-A. He followed it up with a big 2015, though his strikeouts fell as he reached Triple-A. After the season, he was acquired with Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in the Shelby Miller trade. He would go on to split 2016 between Triple-A and Atlanta, though he wasn't impressive at either spot.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
In three seasons since beginning to pick up the bat again, Blair has just four hits at the minor league level and one in the majors. He does have a minor league homer, though the frequency for turning a minor league plate appearance into a sacrifice bunt is slightly below the average you are looking for (8%-10%). He received 23 PA in the majors last year and struck out 9 times. Two of the three times he attempted a sacrifice bunt, he was successful. He's never attempted a steal and appears to lack athleticism to be anything but a bad base runner.
Ungraded
Pitching Observations and Grades:
From the windup, Blair keeps the ball about waist-high until a high leg kick. During this, Blair keeps the ball well-hidden by cocking his body at an angle. He pitches from the first-base side of the rubber and gets good extension with a high 3/4's delivery. He cuts things down from the stretch and gets the ball to the plate with good speed throughout his delivery. He rarely was ran on by opposing teams in the minors as a result. The two best things about his delivery are the deception he creates to hide the ball and how he effortlessly he repeats his motion. To this point, he's been very durable on the mound.
The Braves either attempted to tweak his mechanics or they were coming a bit out of whack as he was pitching out of a higher release point be season's end. The silvering lining is if it was intentional, it may have helped Blair throw his best major league start on October 1 where he struck out ten compared to one walk.
Blair has a five-pitch mix beginning with both a four-seam and two-seam fastball. Each averaged out at about 91-92 mph with max-speed of about 94 mph. He gets good downward movement from the four-seamer, but struggles to throw the pitch consistently for strikes. He abandoned the two-seam fastball as the season progressed and in the final few months utilized it solely to keep lefties off balance. It helped generate some groundballs, but he also struggled to entice enough hitters to swing at it.
His breaking pitches, the curveball and slider, aren't plus-plus pitches. The curve has little break from a 12-6 drop and averages about 77-79 mph. The slider was not used in the majors until he returned in August and was almost exclusively a weapon against right-handed batters. It averages around 80-81 mph and, like his curve, has not shown much bite.
Blair's best pitch is his changeup, though like his curve, we rarely saw it over his final four starts. At 85-86 mph, there is only about a 6 mph difference from his fastball, but that appears to help it confuse batters. None of Blair's pitches have better siwng-and-miss potential than his changeup, which is why it was confusing he abandoned it.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (55), Movement (55, Control (55)
Potential Grades...Velocity (55), Movement (60), Control (65)
Individual Pitch Grades...Four-Seam Fastball (55), Sinker (50), Curveball (50), Slider (45), Changeup (60)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (60), Sinker (55) Curveball (55), Slider (50), Changeup (65)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (60), Speed to the Plate (60)
Defensive Observations and Grades:
There's not a lot of information related to Blair's defense to this point. While he has a slow follow-through, his finish only takes him to the first base side slightly, which leaves him a bit vulnerable to balls to the third-base side of the mound. That said, he appears to field his position well.
Ungraded
Future Projection:
Blair's 2016 was pretty miserable and not only because his major league numbers underwhelmed. In the minors, he was getting pretty lit up (though his strikeout numbers were fine and his 3.38 FIP indicated future corrections). Worse, his control was as bad as it had ever been with walk rates 2% higher than normal. While he was able to get a number of swinging strikes, his ability to get ahead was very poor and he pitched far too often outside of the strikezone. Only 30% of the pitches he threw in the majors were with him ahead in the count - the average is 36%. Conversely, 22% of his pitches came with Blair behind compared to a 17% average.
These developments were a little new for Blair, who progressed through the minors as a strong strike-rate guy who's sum of pitches is greater than any individual pitch. The Braves tweaked with Blair last year and he'll likely return to Gwinnett in 2016 to continue to work on his issues. He still has some projection, but it's limited to a durable middle-of-the-rotation arm similar to the player Gavin Floyd was expected to be. To get there, he's going to have to hit his spots more frequently and use his changeup better.
Videos
Pre-Draft with Marshall (Baseball America)
2014 with Mobile, Arizona's Double-A team (Fangraphs)
Major League debut (MLB.com)
Final start of 2016 (MLB.com)
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Saturday, January 14, 2017
Scouting Report - Jesse Biddle
Player: Jesse Biddle
Date of Scouting Report: 1/14/17
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Age: 25 in 2017
How Acquired: Claimed off waivers (PIT, 3/19/16)
Salary: Unknown
Years Before Free Agency: 5
Years Before Arbitration: 2
Brief Bio:
A former first rounder of the Phillies, the Philadelphia-native became a top prospect in their system before struggles in 2014 at the Double-A level soured some on him. Before that year, he garnered Top 100 Prospect love from multiple publications after a breakout 2011 in the South Atlantic League with a 2.98 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate. He struggled again in 2015 before missing all of the next year with Tommy John surgery. The Phils moved him to the Pirates and shortly after, Pittsburgh waived him in hopes of sneaking him off their 40-man roster. Atlanta pounced and he spent the year on their disabled list.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
As a pitcher, opportunities are slim in the minors to do much of anything. In 48 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, he had seven hits (.167), including three doubles. He's also struck out 15 times to just two walks. With four sacrifice bunts, he's within the average of how frequently a pitcher turns a plate appearance into a sacrifice bunt (8%-10%). Unsurprisingly, he has never attempted a stolen base. Without a significantly higher sample size, I won't provide any grades.
Pitching Observations and Grades:
A left-handed pitcher, Biddle is tall at 6'6" and uses his height well to get good extension to the plate. His wind-up appears effortless and he keeps his ball well-hidden, especially against left-handed hitters. He incorporates a high leg kick out of the wind-up and with his extension, the ball appears to jump at the hitter. Biddle pushes his weight back to bring everything forward with a high 3/4's delivery. From the stretch, he holds runners well and is fairly quick to the plate.
Velocity-wise, Biddle sits in the low-90's with his fastball, which he does get good downward sink to. As a result, his groundball rate has hovered in the 46% area and climbed notably in 2015 after using more two-seam, sinking fastballs. Biddle's inconsistent command has kept his fastballs from flourishing as table setters for his other pitches. Though his delivery is effortless, he struggles to finish and consistently delivery the fastball from the same release point.
Biddle's curveball can be his path to the majors, though he can sometimes lose feel for it. It's a slow breaking pitch that the hitter can give up on too soon. Biddle has to locate it or it will get beat up badly. When trying to throw with more velocity, the curve loses break and gets smacked. Hitters locate it well, but if Biddle is on, the curve will still create a good deal of pop-ups and whiffs.
Biddle also has a slider that bites into right-handed hitters. It's not nearly as good as his curveball, but generates enough late movement to be useful in limited action. Finally, Biddle's fourth pitch is his change-up, which has plus potential. Some of the same issues with his fastball remain as he can struggle with the pitch's finish. Nevertheless, with a better feel and understanding of when to throw the change, it could be one of his best weapons.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (55), Movement (60), Control (50)
Potential Grades...Velocity (55), Movement (65), Control (60)
Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (50), Curveball (55), Slider (40), Changeup (55)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Curveball (65), Slider (45), Changeup (60)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (65), Speed to the Plate (60)
Defensive Observations and Grades:
A good athlete on the mound, Biddle's motion sends him third base-side, leaving him vulnerable to balls to the right side of the infield. It's impossible to grade his defense at this point, but it does not appear to be a negative.
Future Projection:
After a lost year to injury and rehab, it's difficult to project much from Biddle until we know how he comes back. That said, Biddle could carve out a nice career as a left-hand reliever on the low side or a bottom-of-the-rotation arm with some upside if higher-end projections are to be believed. Right now, he needs to re-establish himself as a prospect.
Videos
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Date of Scouting Report: 1/14/17
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Age: 25 in 2017
How Acquired: Claimed off waivers (PIT, 3/19/16)
Salary: Unknown
Years Before Free Agency: 5
Years Before Arbitration: 2
A former first rounder of the Phillies, the Philadelphia-native became a top prospect in their system before struggles in 2014 at the Double-A level soured some on him. Before that year, he garnered Top 100 Prospect love from multiple publications after a breakout 2011 in the South Atlantic League with a 2.98 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and 22.4% strikeout rate. He struggled again in 2015 before missing all of the next year with Tommy John surgery. The Phils moved him to the Pirates and shortly after, Pittsburgh waived him in hopes of sneaking him off their 40-man roster. Atlanta pounced and he spent the year on their disabled list.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
As a pitcher, opportunities are slim in the minors to do much of anything. In 48 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, he had seven hits (.167), including three doubles. He's also struck out 15 times to just two walks. With four sacrifice bunts, he's within the average of how frequently a pitcher turns a plate appearance into a sacrifice bunt (8%-10%). Unsurprisingly, he has never attempted a stolen base. Without a significantly higher sample size, I won't provide any grades.
Pitching Observations and Grades:
A left-handed pitcher, Biddle is tall at 6'6" and uses his height well to get good extension to the plate. His wind-up appears effortless and he keeps his ball well-hidden, especially against left-handed hitters. He incorporates a high leg kick out of the wind-up and with his extension, the ball appears to jump at the hitter. Biddle pushes his weight back to bring everything forward with a high 3/4's delivery. From the stretch, he holds runners well and is fairly quick to the plate.
Velocity-wise, Biddle sits in the low-90's with his fastball, which he does get good downward sink to. As a result, his groundball rate has hovered in the 46% area and climbed notably in 2015 after using more two-seam, sinking fastballs. Biddle's inconsistent command has kept his fastballs from flourishing as table setters for his other pitches. Though his delivery is effortless, he struggles to finish and consistently delivery the fastball from the same release point.
Biddle's curveball can be his path to the majors, though he can sometimes lose feel for it. It's a slow breaking pitch that the hitter can give up on too soon. Biddle has to locate it or it will get beat up badly. When trying to throw with more velocity, the curve loses break and gets smacked. Hitters locate it well, but if Biddle is on, the curve will still create a good deal of pop-ups and whiffs.
Biddle also has a slider that bites into right-handed hitters. It's not nearly as good as his curveball, but generates enough late movement to be useful in limited action. Finally, Biddle's fourth pitch is his change-up, which has plus potential. Some of the same issues with his fastball remain as he can struggle with the pitch's finish. Nevertheless, with a better feel and understanding of when to throw the change, it could be one of his best weapons.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (55), Movement (60), Control (50)
Potential Grades...Velocity (55), Movement (65), Control (60)
Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (50), Curveball (55), Slider (40), Changeup (55)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Curveball (65), Slider (45), Changeup (60)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (65), Speed to the Plate (60)
Defensive Observations and Grades:
A good athlete on the mound, Biddle's motion sends him third base-side, leaving him vulnerable to balls to the right side of the infield. It's impossible to grade his defense at this point, but it does not appear to be a negative.
Future Projection:
After a lost year to injury and rehab, it's difficult to project much from Biddle until we know how he comes back. That said, Biddle could carve out a nice career as a left-hand reliever on the low side or a bottom-of-the-rotation arm with some upside if higher-end projections are to be believed. Right now, he needs to re-establish himself as a prospect.
Videos
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and if it prompts me to alter mine, I'll credit you.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Scouting Report - Gordon Beckham
 |
| Jim McIssac/Getty Images |
Date of Scouting Report: 2/23/16
Age: 29
How acquired: Free Agent, 12/2/15
Salary: $1.25M
Years Left: 1
Brief Bio:
8th overall pick of the 2008 draft, Beckham has never lived up to the promise aside from his first year ,when he had a .190 ISO and 2.3 fWAR in 103 games. It still remains the only year he has posted a wRC+ above 90 and he has a triple slash of .238/.298/.358 over the last six years. So why does he still get paid? He's a competent defender, a good clubhouse guy, and does have some pop.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
Historically, Beckham shows little difference whether he has the platoon advantage or not. Handles finesse pitchers better than power pitchers (.713 OPS to .636 OPS) if you accept that the power/finesse labels can be based on number of strikeouts. His pitch value stats are terrible against fastball stats as well. Handles the bat well and carries a higher-than-average foul-ball rate. Also has below-average rates in swinging and looking strikes, giving the impression that Beckham knows the strikezone well. Still, he is very aggressive and swings at about 3% more than the league average. Part of that is likely due to pitchers having little fear in throwing to him, which means he sees more "hittable pitches." Sprays the ball around, but makes too much soft contact and too little hard contact. Does show a high rate in the productive out metric, as you might expect from a player with so many offensive flaws. Just 3 pinch hits in 22 AB so far in his career. Overall, the impression is that Beckham can occasionally swing into a homerun, but mostly will serve weak liners and grounders where the pitch is thrown while being vulnerable to high velocity offerings. Baserunning-wise, he doesn't give you much. A couple of steals and little ability to take the extra base.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Contact (50), Power (35), Speed (40), Baserunning (35), Eye (55), Discipline (45)
Pitching Observations and Grades:
N/A
Defensive Observations and Grades:
His defense is a mixed bag. You won't get spectacular plays very often, but he does play a competent second base. He's smooth at double play transfers and generally does everything rather well when it comes to defense. He's not a great defender, but he's always good. At third base, he might be better suited because range is less of a concern. In a pinch, he can revert back to shortstop for a game or a few late innings, but that's probably all you want to see out of him playing short.
Grades from a 20-80 scale...Range (40), Arm (55), Arm Accuracy (55), Hands (60)
Future Projection:
Steamer only projects 37 games for him - a number he has always exceeded by a large amount. The rates are pretty reasonable, though. 6% BB%, 17% K%, .110 ISO, .275 wOBA. They're under his career norms, but not significantly so. Marcels gives him a bit more love with a .237/.293/.369 slash. Again, PECOTA is still a couple of months from being updated, but last year's projection had his 2016 numbers similar to Marcels with a minor fall in slugging. Regardless of which projection you want to throw your weight behind, they all tell the same story. Beckham is a decent defender with gross offensive stats. Some might recall the Georgia Bulldog phenom he once was, but at 29, it would be a monster surprise to see Beckham do much more than struggle with the bat in 2016.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and I might altar mine and give credit to you.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Scouting Report - Manny Banuelos
Player: Manny Banuelos
Date of Scouting Report: 1/21/16
Age: 25 in 2016
How acquired: Trade with Yankees for David Carpenter/Chasen Shreve
Salary: TBD (likely prorated major league minimum)
Years Before Free Agency: 6
Brief Bio:
Former top prospect in the Yankees system is looking to capitalize on momentum that brought him to the majors the previous year. Injuries have always been a concern for Banuelos, who has only eclipsed the 100 inning plateau three times in his career (including last year). In 16 starts with Gwinnett in 2015, he maintained a 2.33 ERA with a 3.46 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 0.21 HR/9. His efforts earned a promotion and while he started strong, he ended the year struggling and hurt. Had surgery to deal with some bone spurs that ended his 2015 season.
For more on Banuelos, here's my profile on Banuelos from About.com.
Offensive Observations and Grades
Very little information. 20 career plate appearances with 7 in the majors. Was highly successful in sacrifice bunt opportunities (4-for-4). Swinging Strike and Strike Looking percentages were slightly higher than the league norm, but certainly not awful. Hitless in the majors, he was 2-for-12 in the minors with 8 K's. One extra base, a double, and he only had one successful sacrifice bunt there.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Ungraded
Pitching Observations and Grades
(*sample size issues inherent in the following paragraphs) Once capable of 98 mph heat before Tommy John, Banuelos now comfortably sits in the 89 mph range with a max in 2015 of 92.3 mph. There were reports he was hitting 94 mph with Gwinnett, but minor league guns are notoriously unreliable. He's basically scrapped his sinker and instead uses an 80 mph changeup a little less than a quarter of the time. Also utilizes a 83 mph slider that he can change speeds on depending on the circumstance. His fourth pitch is a 75 mph curveball that too often doesn't have much drop to it, but when it's on, it flashes out pitch potential.
Overall, he works best when he change speeds and out-thinks the hitter versus depending on stuff to get hitters out. His changeup was his best pitch to prompt a swinging strike last season, but his fastball is really the only pitch he spotted in the strikezone with any regularity. Changeup also is a double edge sword as it led to whiffs and an ungodly amount (48%) of line drives. As line drives turn into hits at a high rate, hitters teed off his change when it didn't flutter out of the zone. His mechanics are pretty smooth despite all of the injuries.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (45), Movement (50), Control (45)
Potential Grades...Velocity (50), Movement (60), Control (55)
Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (50), Changeup (55), Curveball (50), Slider (45)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Changeup (65), Curveball (60), Slider (55)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (65), Speed to the Plate (50)
Defensive Observations and Grades
Impossible to grade right now.
Future Projection:
PECOTA has not been updated and probably won't be until March. With that in mind, their long-term forecasts have trended away from actual results as they still expect him to be a strikeout pitcher. In fact, their 2016 projection included this unrealistic number - 207 strikeouts. I imagine when they re-run the model this spring, the numbers will see a significant decline toward something closer to Marcel (1.39 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9). I'd argue that's still very optimistic considering the last time Banuelos posted a 2.4 K/BB rate or better was 2010. Steamer projects similar rates, though a more reasonable 1.9 K/BB. I think that's closer to the pitcher Banuelos is. There remains upside here and if Roger McDowell and company can get him to spot his pitches with a higher degree of frequency, he could develop into a decent #4 who might not embarrass you if pressed to start a playoff game, but will likely still maintain a FIP trending over 4.00. A reasonable baseline might be Ryan Vogelsong's 2015 - 3.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, 4.53 FIP. In his prime, if healthy, Banuelos could certainly progress beyond that, but probably not very far.
Banuelos might benefit from a move to the bullpen. Like many lefthanders, he has shown a platoon advantage historically against lefthanders. Fringe lefties are often converted into LOOGYs. He doesn't fit the typical hard-throwing relief pitcher profile that's all the rage, but neither did Eric O'Flaherty. But he'll need to show more consistency with a breaking pitch (likely his curve) to do so.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and I might altar mine and give credit to you.
Date of Scouting Report: 1/21/16
Age: 25 in 2016
How acquired: Trade with Yankees for David Carpenter/Chasen Shreve
Salary: TBD (likely prorated major league minimum)
Years Before Free Agency: 6
 |
| Mike McGinnis | Getty |
Former top prospect in the Yankees system is looking to capitalize on momentum that brought him to the majors the previous year. Injuries have always been a concern for Banuelos, who has only eclipsed the 100 inning plateau three times in his career (including last year). In 16 starts with Gwinnett in 2015, he maintained a 2.33 ERA with a 3.46 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 0.21 HR/9. His efforts earned a promotion and while he started strong, he ended the year struggling and hurt. Had surgery to deal with some bone spurs that ended his 2015 season.
For more on Banuelos, here's my profile on Banuelos from About.com.
Offensive Observations and Grades
Very little information. 20 career plate appearances with 7 in the majors. Was highly successful in sacrifice bunt opportunities (4-for-4). Swinging Strike and Strike Looking percentages were slightly higher than the league norm, but certainly not awful. Hitless in the majors, he was 2-for-12 in the minors with 8 K's. One extra base, a double, and he only had one successful sacrifice bunt there.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Ungraded
Pitching Observations and Grades
(*sample size issues inherent in the following paragraphs) Once capable of 98 mph heat before Tommy John, Banuelos now comfortably sits in the 89 mph range with a max in 2015 of 92.3 mph. There were reports he was hitting 94 mph with Gwinnett, but minor league guns are notoriously unreliable. He's basically scrapped his sinker and instead uses an 80 mph changeup a little less than a quarter of the time. Also utilizes a 83 mph slider that he can change speeds on depending on the circumstance. His fourth pitch is a 75 mph curveball that too often doesn't have much drop to it, but when it's on, it flashes out pitch potential.
Overall, he works best when he change speeds and out-thinks the hitter versus depending on stuff to get hitters out. His changeup was his best pitch to prompt a swinging strike last season, but his fastball is really the only pitch he spotted in the strikezone with any regularity. Changeup also is a double edge sword as it led to whiffs and an ungodly amount (48%) of line drives. As line drives turn into hits at a high rate, hitters teed off his change when it didn't flutter out of the zone. His mechanics are pretty smooth despite all of the injuries.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (45), Movement (50), Control (45)
Potential Grades...Velocity (50), Movement (60), Control (55)
Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (50), Changeup (55), Curveball (50), Slider (45)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Changeup (65), Curveball (60), Slider (55)
Other Grades...Holding Runners (65), Speed to the Plate (50)
Defensive Observations and Grades
Impossible to grade right now.
Future Projection:
PECOTA has not been updated and probably won't be until March. With that in mind, their long-term forecasts have trended away from actual results as they still expect him to be a strikeout pitcher. In fact, their 2016 projection included this unrealistic number - 207 strikeouts. I imagine when they re-run the model this spring, the numbers will see a significant decline toward something closer to Marcel (1.39 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9). I'd argue that's still very optimistic considering the last time Banuelos posted a 2.4 K/BB rate or better was 2010. Steamer projects similar rates, though a more reasonable 1.9 K/BB. I think that's closer to the pitcher Banuelos is. There remains upside here and if Roger McDowell and company can get him to spot his pitches with a higher degree of frequency, he could develop into a decent #4 who might not embarrass you if pressed to start a playoff game, but will likely still maintain a FIP trending over 4.00. A reasonable baseline might be Ryan Vogelsong's 2015 - 3.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, 4.53 FIP. In his prime, if healthy, Banuelos could certainly progress beyond that, but probably not very far.
Banuelos might benefit from a move to the bullpen. Like many lefthanders, he has shown a platoon advantage historically against lefthanders. Fringe lefties are often converted into LOOGYs. He doesn't fit the typical hard-throwing relief pitcher profile that's all the rage, but neither did Eric O'Flaherty. But he'll need to show more consistency with a breaking pitch (likely his curve) to do so.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and I might altar mine and give credit to you.
Monday, January 11, 2016
Scouting Report - Erick Aybar
 |
| Brace Himmelgarn | Getty |
Date of Scouting Report: 1/11/16
Age: 32 in 2016
How acquired: Trade with Angels for Andrelton Simmons
Salary: $8.5M
Years Before Free Agency: 1
Brief Bio:
With seven years as a durable everyday starter in the tank, Aybar was a suitable replacement for Simmons after the latter was traded to the Angels. Unfortunately for the Braves, Aybar has shown signs of decline since a .290/.324/.416 2012 season in 2012 with a wOBA. A suitable stopgap option, Aybar's career with the Braves will likely not last beyond 2016 and there's great reason to believe he won't last the whole season.
Offensive Observations and Grades:
Avoids strikeouts well with a strikeout rate below average at 11.3% historically, but he also does not take walks and carries a higher rate of swinging at pitches outside the strikezone (36% vs. 31% three-year MLB SS sample). He does put wood on the ball well even on pitches outside the strikezone (as you might expect with so few K's). Pulls the ball slightly more than the average shortstop. Has been a below-average hitter against sliders in his history, but is better than average against fastballs. Though not a typical slap-the-ball to the fields type, he remains a superb contact hitter (88% career vs. 82% three-year MLB SS sample). Never a power hitter (10 HR single-season high), his ISO has declined for four consecutive seasons from .142 in 2011 to .069 in 2015. Grades out very well in advancing runners. 42% productive out success rate vs. 32% league-rate, 67% runner on second advancing with zero outs and Aybar at the plate vs. 56% league rate. A good baserunner, Aybar maxed out with 30 steals in 2011 and has averaged 14 the last three seasons.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Contact (65), Power (25), Speed (55), Baserunning (60), Eye (50), Discipline (25)
Pitching Observations and Grades:
N/A
Defensive Observations and Grades:
Formerly a good shortstop, Aybar has fell to average and maybe even below average after hitting his 30's. An outlier UZR/150 of 8.0 helped mask the decline, but a -7.5 in 2013 and -8 in 2015 are disturbing and as is -13 DRS over the last three years. Arm has appeared to decline from its formerly excellent arm strength as well. Accuracy has saved him from being a bad shortstop during his decline defensively, but range will continue to be an issue. Might be better suited for a move to second base soon.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Range (40), Arm (45), Arm Accuracy (60), Hands (60)
Future Projection:
It should not be surprising to see Aybar bounce back from a .270/.301/.338 slash in 2015 to closer to his career norms (.276/.315/.378), but going beyond that might be a stretch. PECOTA, which won't be updated again until March, had Aybar has a .249/.294/.339 guy in 2016. I think he beats that. Marcels gives him .269/.307/.365, which seems more likely. Steamer is more bullish with a .271/.309/.371 line. Of the three, Marcels is my bet. Add in 12-15 steals, a declining defense, and you are left with about a 1-2 WAR player for 2016. Chances are he only gets worse from here. Acceptable stopgap, but even if Aybar gets boosted with a high BABIP, avoid further commitments.
I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and I might altar mine and give credit to you.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)