Walk-Off Talk 1.5: Finding A Partner (Part 2)

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Today, we look at four more pending free agent assets who don't have markets that aren't nearly as robust. Events occur in real time.)

Ryan,

@JMotte30

Last year, John Coppolella turned Hunter Cervenka into Michael Mader and Anfernee Seymour so we know the guy can find quality players for a reliever, but Jason Motte isn't Cervenka. He's not left-handed, he's not 26, and he doesn't carry a half-decade of team control. Is it even worth talking about Motte as a tradeable asset?

To be fair, Motte has been a nice find. He's kept his ERA around 2.00, picked up three holds, and stranded 11 of 15 runners he's inherited. But there are some issues here and that's not only related to the fact he turns 35 today. One, he's been about as lucky as a pitcher can be. The guy has an ERA nearly four runs under what his FIP is at. He's found a way to carry a negative WAR with a 2.14 ERA, which should be impossible. He has a 100% LOB%. His BABIP is a hyper-low .179.

Motte's going to crash and he's going to crash quick. And none of the numbers I cited are secret. While some teams are more stats-savvy than others, it's hard for me to accept that anyone thinks Motte has pitched as well as his ERA states. While we could certainly talk about some teams who are need of relief help, I see Motte more likely to be an added piece in deals involving Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips (or others we'll talk about later). Similar to how Jim Johnson was basically attached to the Hector Olivera (CHANGE TO He Who Must Not Be Named) deal. Am I wrong? Do you think there are teams that are going to actually target Motte?

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Tommy,

No. Next?  Just kidding. I think you’re spot on when it comes to Motte as he’ll be a guy that gets attached to another player, if at all! He’s someone that the Braves fans should appreciate this year as he’s been brought in the midst of madness with runners galore and has stranded 11 of 15. Forget that some balls are hit so hard that they nearly take off the infielders’ gloves right before they double up the guy running back to 2nd, that’s a pretty remarkable feat. Velcro him to someone and let’s get another young flamethrower up here.

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Ryan,

I think we will also have similar reactions to the next two players - R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. Let's address the knuckleballer first. He is coming off possibly his best start as a Brave where he tossed seven quality innings against the Giants. I say it was possibly his best start because eleven days before that, he had a Game Score v. 2.0 of 82 against the Phillies, which slightly edges the 81 he put up against San Francisco. Unfortunately, those starts were sandwiched around an eight-run, three-homer affair against the Nats. Since the beginning of 2013, Dickey has a FIP of 4.68 and it's only getting higher.

The righty does carry a - relatively speaking - affordable $8M club option for 2018, but will anyone bite on Dickey (ouch)? It seems hard for me to find a match. Maybe a team like the Red Sox who like the versatility of having a knuckleballer who can serve as a swingman? They lost Steven Wright after all and kept Tim Wakefield around despite some gross numbers toward the end of his career. That's about all I can come up with at this point. A few more games like last weekend, though, and things could change in a hurry.

As for Colon, I know you are going to suggest the Mets and honestly, it's the only option I see as well. Though, I kind of look at it like Julio Franco in reverse. The ageless one left the Braves for the Mets and really struggled in '07. They released him in mid-July and three days later, the Braves added him for the remainder of the season. I see the Mets maybe pouncing on Colon (ouch?) should the Braves cut him, but hard for me to see them giving the Braves anything - even a non-prospect.

And by the way, I think I'm being optimistic here in including two teams that might have any interest whatsoever at this point in either Dickey or Colon.

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Tommy,

Let’s talk about R.A. Dickey and the history of his knuckleball: it gets better with the age of a season. For his career, his ERA during months of March/April is over 5. In May, 4.41. From there?

• June- 3.50
• July- 4.14
• August- 3.89
• September/Oct- 3.45

If there’s a team that knows this about Dickey, he could most definitely be looked at as an innings eater that could keep them in the game. However, that doesn’t negate the current numbers and that his ERA is 4.91. I like your idea about the Red Sox and there could be a match there, but aside from some salary relief, I don’t think there’s reason to discuss return at this point as it likely will be a player of little to no impact.

As for Bartolo, I think it’s Mets or bust, and if the Mets have an underperforming player they’d like to give the Braves in return for Bartolo, that’d be fine with me. On Twitter a few weeks back, I suggested a Bartolo for Josh Smoker deal. Smoker would have to be inserted on the 40-man, but he’s a LH flamethrower that’s finding success in the minors, but hasn’t translated to the bigs yet. Send Mets Bartolo, pay all but 1MM of his salary, and get a lottery ticket in return.

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Ryan,

Smoker? I hardly knew her.

Sorry. I mean, I’ll take any assets as I can for Colon as long as it doesn’t add to the financial bottom line, though I have to admit that I don’t have a lot of faith there is much chance of a deal.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Moving on to the Braves’ final one-year contract, let’s look at Kurt Suzuki. Back when the Braves signed Suzuki, I was a little disappointed. I didn't see the point in handing over the backup catcher gig to Suzuki over going with an open competition between Anthony Recker and a cast of thousands. So far, though, Suzuki has been pretty darn impressive. I'll take a wRC+ of 91 out of a backup catcher especially when he's ninth in the league in outside-of-the-zone strike percentage according to Statcorner.com.

It wouldn't be the worst thing to bring him back for 2018 depending on how he finishes this season, but if another team is looking for stability behind the plate and is willing to serve up a prospect or two, I'm definitely going to consider things.

• Arizona - The Diamondbacks have the worst fWAR among their catchers in the majors. Chris Iannetta and Jeff Mathis are both underperforming veterans, though Iannetta has mashed eight homers. Finally, there is Chris Hermann, who hit well last year, but has returned to the third catcher status that followed his career in Minnesota. Both Iannetta and Mathis score well in pitch framing, though Hermann does not. I imagine the Diamondbacks would be more interested in a better solution than Suzuki, but the market is thin and Suzuki might be one of their best options should they seek an improvement.
    
• Toronto - Russell Martin has underperformed, but Suzuki would not steal his playing time. Rather, this is about depth. Toronto started the season with our old friend Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate as the backup, but after he managed just a single in 26 PA (with 16 strikeouts!), the Jays moved on to Luke Maile, a 26 year-old in his third year who has hit .185/.211/.292 over 245 PA. The Jays could definitely use some help here.
    
• Cleveland - Roberto Perez was a bit of a postseason name, but he's hit just .159/.235/.216 this season. Yan Gomez isn't exactly lighting it up, either. Both do provide good defense and Perez is a particularly gifted framer. They don't seem like a good match on paper, but they might be interested in adding some depth.
   
• Washington - Matt Wieters' great start is a distant memory. He's reached 0.0 fWAR and nobody is talking anymore about how the Braves should have got him. Jose Lobaton, his backup, is a great receiver, but with Wieters cooling, might the Nats be interested in a better bat behind him? 

On one hand, the market isn't huge for Suzuki, though you could make an argument that half (if not more) of the league could use a better backup catcher and Suzuki is one of the better ones in baseball this season at providing just that. Do you think there might be abother player here I haven't listed?

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Thanks for asking, Tommy.

While I’ve had a few others that on the surface look like matches for Suzuki (Angels, Red Sox, Rockies), I think you’ve covered the main players. However….

I think the team that really could use Suzuki is a team you’ve discussed, and that is the Diamondbacks. They’re having a pretty good year and could use a fresh veteran presence behind the plate. There’s a LHP out of Vandy in their system that isn’t putting up great numbers at AA despite having great strikeout numbers: Jared Miller. He’s the perfect kind of upside for the Braves to take a risk on and he’s performing poorly enough to where the Diamondbacks would trade him.

But let it be known, I want to see the Braves extend Suzuki. I was of the same opinion as you when he was first signed, but his value as a backup to Tyler has been...well...valuable. I like 2 veteran guys catching our young guys going forward and I’d like to see these 2 back behind the dish in 2018. Obviously, the Braves could do both, trade him then re-sign him in the offseason, and that would be the best of both worlds as long as Suzuki is cool with it.

Prepping for the Trade Deadline: Part 2

(Written by Ryan Cothran, a contributor at Walk-Off Walk for the last few weeks. Previous columns by Cothran include one on BABIP, the bullpen, and reviewing the Braves' buy-low philosophy on Tommy John survivors. The first part of this series detailed possible fixes for the team should there be trades over the next couple of months. Remember to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

Last year, while writing for Tomahawk Take, I wrote a piece regarding organizational surplus and I found it a very enlightening exercise to help target surplus pieces in the farm to trade.

The term “Pipeline” rings true here: Where there’s a bulge in the pipe ready to burst, that’s where there’s surplus. Last year, the biggest bulge in the pipe was in back-end RHP starters...12 of them to be exact. I discussed that Coppy could trade 2-3 of the surplus and not think twice about it. He traded 5! And 2 more are no longer in the organization.

So, I completed the exercise of identifying the surplus talent inside the 2017 organization to navigate and find a few areas that the Atlanta Braves could use for trades without sacrificing the future of the farm system.

The problem with this exercise is that prospects are just that – the prospects of a forecasted future – and are therefore unpredictable. The player one chooses to keep might become a career Minor Leaguer while the player traded becomes a perennial All-Star. Dealing prospects is always a risk.

So, let’s look at the organizational depth chart, shall we? I listed most players who, at current projections, could be useful major league ballplayers at some capacity. Albeit, this is an incomplete list and even being the author, I understand that.

Most of the international prospects from last year are not listed here so just bear with the process.  It is not often that they are included in trades at their ages anyway.

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Frontline (#1-2 ceiling) RH Starting Pitchers

• Julio Teheran
• Mike Foltynewicz
• Lucas Sims
• Patrick Weigel
• Ian Anderson
• Mike Soroka
• Touki Toussaint

Frontline (#1-2 ceiling) LH Starting Pitchers

• Sean Newcomb
• Max Fried
• Kolby Allard 
• Luiz Gohara
• Joey Wentz
• Kyle Muller

Mid-Back Rotation (3-5 ceiling) RH Starting Pitchers

• R.A. Dickey
• Bartolo Colon
• Matt Wisler
• Aaron Blair 
• Luke Jackson
• Matt Withrow
• Bryse Wilson
• Josh Graham
• Wes Parsons
• Luis Gamez

Sanchez | By Jeff Morris. Follow @AtlBravesJeff

Mid-Back Rotation (3-5 ceiling) LH Starting Pitchers

• Jaime Garcia
• Michael Mader 
• Tyler Pike
• Ricardo Sanchez  
• Drew Harrington
• Dilmer Mejia
• Jaret Hellinger
• Oriel Caicedo

Catchers

• Tyler Flowers 
• Kurt Suzuki
• Joseph Odom
• Kade Scivicque 
• Alex Jackson
• Lucas Herbert
• Brett Cumberland
• Jonathan Morales
• Tanner Murphy
• Ricardo Rodriguez
• Matt Foley
• Abraham Gutierrez

First Base

• Freddie Freeman 
• Matt Adams
• Joey Meneses
• Carlos Castro
• Anthony Concepcio

By Jeff Morris. Follow @AtlBravesJeff

Second Base

• Brandon Phillips
• Jace Peterson
• Ozzie Albies
• Travis Demeritte
• Kevin Josephina
• Omar Obregon

Third Base

• Adonis Garcia
• Rio Ruiz
• Carlos Franco
• Dylan Moore
• Austin Riley

Shortstop

• Dansby Swanson
• Johan Camargo
• Derian Cruz
• Alejandro Salazar
• Luis Valenzuela
• Kevin Maitan

Outfield

• Matt Kemp
• Ender Inciarte
• Nick Markakis 
• Micah Johnson
• Dustin Peterson
• Connor Lien
• Braxton Davidson
• Anfernee Seymour 
• Jared James
• Keith Curcio
• Ronald Acuna
• Ray-Patrick Didder
• Leudys Baez
• Justin Ellison
• Isranel Wilson
• Randy Ventura
• Cristian Pache 

Now...after digesting that list, you’ll see that some depth charts are longer than others, but remember that pitching depth and outfield depth will naturally be larger as both require more players than, for example, first base.

But it’s not just the quantity, rather it’s the developmental level as well. If many are on the same developmental level, then VOILA!  Surplus.

Evaluating the Pitching
There’s never enough pitching depth is a theory the Braves have been challenging these past few years as the Braves could have 30 prospects that are just pitchers in the organization and it’d be a better list than ⅔ of other organizations. There are a few places I see a bulge that the Braves could deal a prospect or 2 and still be deep at said position.

Front-line RH Starting Pitching- Merely looking at age, Lucas Sims, Patrick Weigel, and Mike Soroka seem like they’re very different in regards to their projected MLB debut, but there’s probably only a calendar year’s difference as Soroka, being the baby of the 3, has far more polish than the other two. Dealing one of these would hurt as we’ve all grown fond of “our guys”, but it could be done without sacrificing too much.

Front-line LH Starting Pitching- Like Sims, Weigel, and Soroka, the foursome of Newcomb, Fried, Allard, and Gohara could be a calendar year apart in debuts as the younger guys are more polished than Newk and Fried. Trading one of these 4 would also hurt, but could be done without jeopardizing too much.

Back-end RH Starting Pitching- Would anyone really care if Bartolo, Dickey, Wisler, Blair, or even Luke Jackson were traded, especially if it landed a real prospect or a front-line starter under control for years? BIG BULGE! These 5 are surplus and I’d expect a few to be gone before this season has elapsed.

Back-end LH Starting Pitching-  Jaime Garcia seems replaceable in the Braves rotation by Newcomb, which likely won’t be an upgrade this year but could prove beneficial to Newcomb’s experience.  Mader, Harrington, Pike, and Sanchez seem repetitive as guys likely destined for the bullpen and around the same developmental level (albeit, Pike is throwing out some pretty righteous stats at High-A). Trading one of these guys doesn’t hurt the Braves from a depth perspective.

Evaluating the Position Players
Catchers- Should Alex Jackson emerge as a force as a catcher, the Braves could look at trading a few of their guys that could become positionless in the future. Until then, I don’t see a catching surplus.

1st Basemen- Matt Adams is the only surplus and he’s currently not even that with Freeman out. If he continues to hit, he’ll be a good bench spot, but a better trade chip.

2nd Basemen- Phillips, Albies, Demeritte, and Jace are surplus in a sense. However, if we’re projecting Albies as the starting 2nd baseman in 2018, Demeritte and Jace still make up good utility players. The real surplus here is Brandon Phillips, but he’s playing well and it’d be very hard for the Braves to trade him if they’re playing .500 baseball. At this point, I don’t see a surplus here.

3rd Basemen- Braves actually need more 3rd basemen in the system as the options at the MLB level are platoons at best and then it’s thin until Austin Riley. No surplus here.

Shortstops- Braves aren’t short on shortstops, but don’t really have any bumping into each other on the depth charts either. No surplus here.

Outfielders- While there aren’t guys that are knocking down the door for an MLB promotion, this is one to keep an eye on as both Dustin Peterson and Ronald Acuna could be begging to be in the bigs by the end of the season, with DP getting an October cup of coffee. If either of these guys solidify their place in the bigs, there’s surplus that opens in the form of Markakis at the MLB level and several guys in the minors that could project as starting OFers.  For now...no surplus.

To wrap it up, I’m not pushing for any of the guys in our organization to be traded, but it’s going to happen. It’s happened every year. The biggest bulges seem to be in RH MLB-ready back-end starting pitching with at least 1 surplus in each of the other pitching categories. Trades are going to hurt...but hopefully they help more.

Go Braves!

Transaction Tuesday: Weigel, Acuna, Gohara, Seymour

As I try to do every week, here is your recap of organizational transactions for the Atlanta Braves. While the major league squad was quiet this week, others were quite active with a number of big prospects getting promotions.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between May 9 and May 15. Taxi Squad refers to a Braves minor league team "sending" a player to Danville just to get him off the active roster. In most cases, the player will stay with the team that just demoted him until he is brought back onto the active roster. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta Braves
Surprisingly, none.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Patrick Weigel (#17)...It's been a meteoric rise for Weigel and it continues this week. After seven starts (and three last year) at Mississippi, Weigel had shown that Double-A simply did not have an answer for him. He's now in Triple-A and worked seven innings in his debut with 5 K's, a walk, and three runs allowed. Right now, the Gwinnett Braves rotation is stocked with current and former big-time prospects. Now, will their production match the hype? In Weigel's case, I'm betting it does.

Activated from DL: Joel De La Cruz...The best way to describe De La Cruz is he's just an arm. A year after making his major league debut at 27 and pitching 62.2 innings for the Braves, De La Cruz is back in the minors and looked bad before being placed on the DL. In his first game back, he threw two innings and despite allowing a pair of runners, he faced the minimum.

Placed on DL: Blake Lalli...Things haven't gone so well for Lalli, who's hit .182/.245/.295 over his first 49 PA.

Demoted to Mississippi: Jason Hursh...Hursh has played in Mississippi in every season aside from his first year. The guy may as well get a house there. He wasn't bad in Gwinnett. In fact, with 20 K's in 17.1 ING, he was flashing - by far - the best strikeout rate of his career. But in a numbers game, Hursh lost and De La Cruz continues on.

Mississippi

Promoted from Florida: Ronald Acuna (#9)...You know the fear that some Braves fans had that Acuna's solid, though injury-shortened 2016, and the huge run in the Aussie Winter League was hyping him up a bit too much? Well...so far...it looks like Acuna is proving that he might be one of the Top 20 prospects in baseball if not higher. After a .287/.336/.478 run in Florida, which included 11 extra base hits and 14 stolen bases, Acuna came up to Mississippi and had as impressive of a first week in the Southern League as one can have. He went 16-for-29 (.552) with five extra-base hits and five steals. It's times like this that we need to remember this is Acuna's Age-19 year. Contrary to what the Braves seem to think (other teenagers with Mississippi include Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka), it's just not normal to see this many teenagers in Double-A - especially this early in the season. But Acuna, Allard, and Soroka share one common feature - they are all uber-talented and among the elite prospects in baseball.

Promoted from Florida: Luiz Gohara (#7)...Alex Jackson and Gohara were two of Seattle's best prospects, which they basically gave to the Braves. Both were at Florida and both were performing at a high rate. Gohara's already earned a promotion after striking out 39 in 36.1 innings with a 1.98 ERA. Unfortunately, Gohara left his first start with Mississippi after just eight batters with a triceps injury. Hopefully, it won't be too worrisome for him moving forward.

Placed on Taxi Squad and Activated off Taxi Squad: Kade Scivicque (#45)...He received just a brief time away from the club - maybe it was a personal matter - and is already back on the team. Scivicque has continued to impress with a .344/.381/.433 start after nearly OPSing .900 in the Arizona Fall League. While I don't expect him to develop into a starting catcher in the majors, he could carve out some major league time as a decent-hitting backup catcher.

Promoted from Danville and Demoted to Danville: Carlos Martinez...Not much to say here. He was a backup catcher who was around for the day Scivicque wasn't with the team. He's hit .238/.303/.283 over a four-year career spent entirely at the rookie level.

Released: Adam Walker...I wonder what happened to the Adam Walker fan who frequented my blog a few months back - excited about the possibilities of Walker and disappointed with my lack of praise for the outfielder. Walker lasted 24 games in the Braves before being released. I'd say he wasn't hitting his weight, but at 225 pounds, it would be more fitting to say Walker was just barely hitting half of his weight. He hit five homers, though. He also struck out 39 times in 99 PA. I'm not great at math, but that seems excessive. He's since signed with the Orioles.

Florida
Promoted from Taxi Squad: J.B. Moss...A Texas A&M alum who the Braves grabbed in the seventh round last year, Moss had an up-and-down 2016. He owned the Appalachian League for 24 games before struggling badly in the Carolina League (while skipping the South Atlantic). Since his promotion, his High-A struggles have continued to the tune of a 2-for-17 run with no walks, extra bases hits, or really anything else to add to this sentence.

Promoted from Rome: Andres Santiago...It's becoming more and more difficult to see what the Braves are so enamored about when it comes to Santiago. He's a 27-year-old righty in his 11th year of baseball.

Promoted from Rome: Anfernee Seymour (#47)...I wasn't as big on Seymour as others heading into this year, but the results have been tremendous. After slashing .287/.345/.352 during a return trip to the South Atlantic League, Seymour earned a promotion and has gone 10-for-25 since. No longer a middle infielder, Seymour's path to the bigs is reliant on a solid hit tool and plus-plus speed.

Placed on DL: Carlos Castro (#49)...One day, he's hitting three homers in a game. The next, he gets blasted in the face and is headed to the DL. That was Castro's week. The three-homer barrage occurred last Wednesday and was part of a 5-for-5 day. He came out of nowhere to hit 17 homers last year in just 84 games and Wednesday's effort gave him six on the young season. Now, he's out for an undetermined amount of time as he suffered a facial fracture when Lakeland's Endrys Briceno came high-and-tight against him.

Rome 
Promoted from Danville: Justin Ellison...This is the first of five new additions from Danville/Extended Spring Training to fill spots that were opened up mostly from the string of promotions that occurred last week. Ellison was a regular for Rome last year and played in 121 games. He was horrid early, but over the season's final four months, he improved. Still, that only meant he slashed .265/.322/.388 over his final 89 games with 20 doubles, seven triples, and two homers. Ellison has a quick, though long swing, and plus speed both on the basepaths and in the field. If he can add a bit more muscle without sacrificing his speed, there's potential pop in his bat. He's 1-for-8 so far after the callup with a triple.

Promoted from Danville: Matt Gonzalez...A sixth rounder last June out of Georgia Tech, Gonzalez was a late bloomer who flashed an intriguing bat in his senior season. He continued that with an impressing switch to wood bats (.302/.327/.397). The Braves have effectively moved him from 2B/3B to LF so far since his callup and he's struggled with the bat early, but it's just six games so both of these findings are premature. Gonzalez was a guy who signed well under slot ($281.K less than his draft slot) so his value to the team was more about helping them sign better prospects. Anything they get now will be bonus.

Promoted from Danville: Yeudi Grullon...This is already Year 5 of Grullon's professional journey. That includes 57 games with Rome last year in which he hit .219/.287/.244 - and pitched twice in blowout efforts. He's a utility guy who will move runners and has a fairly decent understanding of the strikezone.

Promoted from Danville: Jaret Hellinger...In the 2015 draft, the Braves took Hellinger and gave him a sixth-round-like $300K despite picking him in the 20th round. He's spent the last two years with fairly average numbers, but the Braves definitely saw something in him. 20 years-old now, the former Ola High School (McDonough, GA) southpaw will try use low-90's heat and developing secondary pitches to try to keep batters at bay. Don't expect big K numbers, but if he's flashing some of the potential Atlanta saw in him, expect some positive numbers.

Promoted from Danville: Luis Mora...Mora's got to get moving. He'll turn 22 a month from now and finally got into his first two games above rookie ball. Now, he's just in his fourth year after spending two in the Dominican Summer League, but the Braves need to see something quick because in June, they plan to add some more pitchers in the draft and Mora has yet to stand out. He's got a good fastball, but control is an issue. That's not just a walks problem, but also his inability to spot his pitches, which allows hitters to tee off on the ones that do slip into the strikezone.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Thomas Burrows (#37)...Looks like a bit of a break for Burrows, who already has appeared ten times for Rome this season. The K's (23%) are looking good and I have to believe some of those hits will quick falling as frequently.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Tucker Davidson...A 19th rounder out of Amarillo, Texas, Davidson skipped Danville on his way to Rome to open the year. Over 10 games, the lefty K'd 25 in 20.1 innings, though he continues to be a bit hit-prone. I expect him back in Rome before too long.

Transaction Tuesday: Cabrera, Wisler, Carlos Salazar

So, today has seen a bunch of action as far as transactions go. Patrick Weigel, Ronald Acuna, and Anfernee Seymour have all been promoted up the ladder while Adam Walker received his walking papers. These moves will be covered next week with a look at what the first week for the recently promoted prospects looked like.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between May 2 and May 8. Taxi Squad refers to a Braves minor league team "sending" a player to Danville just to get him off the active roster. In most cases, the player will stay with the team that just demoted him until he is brought back onto the active roster. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta Braves
*Last night, I went over the trade of Danny Santana/Kevin Chapman, the release of Ryan Howard, and Lane Adams being optioned.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Sam Freeman...The arrival of Freeman was a bit of a surprise. Yes, he only allowed one earned run in 10.1 innings with Gwinnett, but his numbers beyond his ERA were pretty pedestrian (20% K rate, 15% walk rate, unsustainable .160 BABIP and 94% LOB%). Still, the Braves brought the lefty up. I have my doubts about his ability to stick for very long, but considering the issues Eric O'Flaherty and Ian Krol have had, a dependable lefty could be of assistance - though, as OFR's Andy Harris pointed out, Freeman is not a left-hand specialist.

Activated off DL and Optioned to Gwinnett: Mauricio Cabrera...Elbow issues limited Cabrera this spring and kept him from pitching in a game until late April as he began a rehab stint. Control problems plagued him as they had been known to do throughout his career. As such, the Braves wanted to see more from the fireballer before bringing him back to the bigs. Once he starts to throw strikes consistently, he'll be back.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Matt Wisler...Year Three of Wisler in the majors didn't look so hot. He rolled in his first two outings out of the pen, facing one over the minimum over three innings. His next two innings, spaced over two outings, saw ten batters reach base, seven score run, two receive free passes to first, and just one strikeout. Obviously, it's still too early to say much of anything about Wisler and certainly, five innings is too small of a sample to grade anything on. All that said, Wisler was last really impressive in 2013, spent mostly at Double-A. His control remains very good, but it too often waivers in the majors as Wisler can't entice many weak swings on his offerings early in the count like he can in the minors. The Braves have little reason to close the door on Wisler, but he's also given Atlanta little reason to want to see him more.

Transferred to 60-day DL: Micah Johnson...Nothing surprising here as Johnson was still ways off from earning a spot on the roster and the Braves needed a spot for Santana. He fractured his wrist nearly two months ago and there's little news on what a timetable might look like.

Transferred to 60-day DL: Daniel Winkler...Like with Johnson, this was a procedure move to get Freeman on the roster. Winkler had been hoping to be in rehab games by this point, but 13 months since fracturing his elbow, he's still not in a position to throw a competitive pitch. A trip to the 60-day DL simply means he wouldn't be back before June - which was a given.

Gwinnett Braves
Activated off DL: Emerson Landoni...Landoni first joined the organization back in 2012 and has been a fixture ever since. A utility infielder, Landoni has some fans in the organization who keep him around. He's 1-for-12 on the year and it's not a good bet to expect much better from Landoni's bat.

Mississippi Braves
Activated off DL: Sal Giardina...A 2014 draft choice and rare switch-hitting catcher, Giardina hit .246/.302/.342 with Carolina last year. You won't get many walks from him and he strikes out a bit too much, but for the Braves to make room for him (while dropping one of their top defensive catchers), you have to believe the Braves like Giardina for their young pitchers.

Activated off DL: Levi Hyams...After beginning the year on the DL, this will mark the third consecutive year Hyams has played in Mississippi. He had a nice run with Rome back in 2013 and produced in Pearl two years ago, but his career has been mostly pedestrian. Interestingly, his walk rate, which had been above 10% for three years before 2016 cratered last year. Meanwhile, his K% has never been higher. He has a little pop in his bat and if the walk rate returns, he'll be a decent enough option off the bench for Mississippi.

Demoted to Taxi Squad with Gwinnett and Promoted to Mississippi: Wes Parsons...Parsons briefly appeared with Gwinnett - the first time the former undrafted prospect has made it that far. Parsons came onto the scene with a big 2013 where he kept the Southern League at bay over 109.2 innings. He would struggle the following year and injuries would limit the righty to just 86.1 innings over the last two seasons. Used as a long reliever with Mississippi, Parsons has been a bit unlucky with Mississippi (.333 BABIP) but has done a superb job getting grounders and being efficient (2.8 K/BB).

Placed on DL: Reed Harper...On the day Hyams was activated, Harper headed to the DL. Plucked out of the 25th round back in 2013 out of Austin Peay State, Harper has been a utility infielder for much of his career. He's never had much of a bat, but mans his position(s) well.

Placed on DL: Joe Rogers...A late release this spring by the Tigers, Rogers has struggled to stay off the DL in his career. That has continued with the Braves. He missed most of the first month before a recent activation. He worked two games before heading back to the DL. In two innings this year, Rogers has allowed two runs, walked two, and struck out one. A former fifth-rounder out of UCF, Rogers is a lefty with pedestrian numbers when he's healthy enough to pitch.

Traded to Baltimore for cash: Armando Araiza...A strong defender, Araiza was pushed out when Giardina was activated for Mississippi. He had been hitting .143 with a homer over eleven games. He's - at times - flashed a decent enough hit tool, but his glove is his best weapon. He was immediately assigned a spot in Triple-A after the trade.

Florida Fire Frogs
Rehab: Chaz Roe...After a strong 21-game finish to 2016, the Braves had high hopes for Roe this year, but the righty struggled in spring training and looked very bad in three outings before landing on the DL in mid-April. Diagnosed with a right lat strain, Roe finally took the field again last week and gave up a run while facing five hitters. He struck out one and was charged with two hits.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Enderson Franco...An organizational guy early this season, Franco opened the season in the Rome bullpen before being recruited for emergency starting duty in Gwinnett. After two starts there, he headed to Florida and already has a start there. In his eighth minor league season and fourth organization, Franco hadn't pitched above A-ball until his brief (and successful) run in Gwinnett.

Released: Carlos Salazar...And just like that, Salazar ran out of chances. Frank Wren's team was criticized for - and rightfully so - going safe with many of their top picks in the amateur draft, but Salazar was not one of those safe picks. Picked with the #102nd overall selection back in 2013, Salazar had a big arm even as a young teenager. He was clocked in the mid-90's with upper-90's max velocity. But a wild and inconsistent delivery was his undoing. The Braves continued to tinker with him, but he was never able to show the ability to get hitters out above rookie ball. The last three years, he had strikeout and walk rates both over 20%. I imagine this isn't the end of the road for Salazar, but he might have to go to independent ball and hope he can find the strikezone more often there before another organization will give him a look.

Rome Braves
None.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #50-#41

The Atlanta Braves system is ridiculously stacked. Oh, sure, some have argued that most of its elite talent is at A-ball or lower. They aren't wrong, but that doesn't change how much talent the Braves have now. Considering how many prospects the team has added since the winter of 2014-15, the turnaround has been astounding. The front office, scouting department, and development team have outdone themselves.

Last week, I gave you five names I like, but who missed my Top 50 Prospects. Today, I start counting down the Top 50 with the bottom ten. Though I grade these guys at the tail end of my Top 50, I don't expect many of them to fall out of the list - if any. Rather, I expect quite a few to climb up the list by midseason and next offseason.

Added January 12, 2017. I originally set out to do a Top 50, but after this trade with the Mariners, I had to adjust my numbers. As such, I have altered the rankings to squeeze in the two new prospects. Next week, I will do a dozen prospects to get back on track with release ten prospects weekly until the Top 10.

52. Jon Kennedy, LHP, 21 years-old, Prospect Grade: C

While his name immediately brings up images of American political royalty, Kennedy is a native of Melbourne, Australia. Standing 6'5", Kennedy got his first break at the tender age of 16 while playing for the Melbourne Aces in the Australian Baseball League. For three years, he rarely pitched at Australia's highest level, but the fact that he did at all was impressive because of his age. Before the 2015 season was to kick off in Australia, interest was beginning to rise in Kennedy. Baltimore considered him before the Braves came away impressed enough to sign him.

Kennedy would still pitch one more year for Melbourne, but with the Braves' support, he became a regular starter for the Aces. After the season wrapped up, he soon made the trip to the states and pitched well to make the Rome roster out of spring training. After a couple of ugly games, he was moved back down a peg to wait for the Danville season to begin. It wouldn't be the first time he went up to Rome before spending more time with Danville. His last game was a two-inning stint with Carolina where he struck out four.

On the season, Kennedy had a 2.93 ERA over 30.2 innings with just 4 walks and 29 strikeouts. While scouting reports are scarce for Kennedy, he works off a 90 mph fastball and a breaking pitch that gets a good deal of movement from his 3/4's delivery. While new to the American scene, Kennedy understands that his path to the majors might be pretty narrow and limited to a left-hand specialist role. If he continues to show he's capable of generating K's with good control, he could follow that path all the way to the bigs.



51. Isranel Wilson, OF, 19 years-old, Grade: C

Few minor leaguers sparked more interest from me than Wilson heading into 2016. One of the first big splashes made by the Holy John Trinity after Frank Wren's firing, Wilson was aggressively pushed to the Gulf Coast League to begin 2015. After a terrible start, he raked over the last month-plus to finish the season with a .349 OBP, .257 ISO, and 149 wRC+. Did I mention he never faced a pitcher he was older than and was in his first year in a new country?

There were a lot of reasons to be excited about Wilson heading into 2016. And then...the season actually happened. He slashed .192/.276/.315 over nearly 150 PA. After hitting ten homers in the GCL, he hit just two in 2016. His walk % fell 5% while his ISO came down 134 points. If all of this wasn't confusing enough, his BABIP was actually 17 points higher in 2016.

This leaves us with a really muddled snapshot of Wilson as a player. A left-hand hitter, Wilson's swing looks like it will lead to pulling the ball a good deal and when he does connect, he hits the ball pretty solidly. Right now, Wilson could return to prospect status or continue to fall off. The natural gifts are there, but can he display them on the field? I would be shocked if Wilson doesn't start the year in extended spring training and we might not see him play until the Appalachian League season opens in June. Until then, his Jekyll and Hyde act is all we have.



50. Yoeli Lopez, OF, 19 years-old, Grade: C

There wasn't a lot to cheer about last summer for the Dominican Summer League Braves. They finished ten games under .500 and twelve games back in the San Pedro Division. One of the few bright spots, however, was Yoeli Lopez. Born in the Dominican Republic, but schooled in Miami, 2016 was the first year of Lopez's career and the results were pretty impressive.

Lopez played in nearly every game while slashing .240/.382/.357 with 3 homers and 11 steals. Consider that the DSL Braves hit just 9 homers overall. Lopez possesses a big swing and showed impressive plate discipline last year (though he struck out way too much). He also was hit 19 times, which could be an indicator of him crowding the plate. Obviously, there's not a lot of information about Lopez to this point and DSL outfielders are notorious for flaming out once they come to the states. Nevertheless, keep an eye on Lopez. There might be something here.




49. Carlos Castro, 1B, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

For three years, Castro labored in the Dominican Summer League. First signed in 2011, between 2012-14, he played in 124 games in the DSL as the Braves tried see if he could stick at catcher. Ultimately, his defensive issues led them to decide that he wasn't, but thtat didn't hold him back. After a .308/.378/.450 run in 2014, he was brought state-side.

Already 21 and now with Danville, Castro played backup to converted 3B Juan Yepez at first base as Yepez was the higher-rated prospect. Most of Castro's at-bats came as the team's DH and while he did hit .319, he showed little pop and appeared quite willing to swing at any-and-everything. In 2016, Castro was waiting around in extended spring training when injuries and poor play finally opened up a spot in Rome. He collected a pair of hits on May 23, his first game of the year, and his season was off and running. June was especially good as he hammered nine homeruns, including a pair of two-homer games. Amazingly, he hit just .221 that month and rarely hit a single. Even more curious, as the months transpired, the higher his average climbed, the lower his power numbers went. On the season, he slashed .266/.301/.508 with 17 homers. The dinger total was second to Austin Riley in the system.

But he was a bit old to get much prospect love in the South Atlantic League. His teammate, Riley, was in his Age-19 season and Dustin Peterson, who was two levels above Castro, was also a year younger. That's why Castro's power numbers, while impressive, won't push him high on my list. Nevertheless, considering he had hit just six homers in four years before 2016, it was a breakout season worth more attention. Castro has his faults - he hasn't seen a pitch he didn't think was worth swinging at, for one. Unless he hits .300 or better, his on-base percentage will be a concern. Plus, right-handed first baseman rarely make for defensive wonders. Still, over the last three years, he's averaged around a 125 wRC+. I'm sure Atlanta hopes he swings a big stick early in Florida, which will allow them to aggressively push him up to Double-A.




48. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, 19 years-old, Grade: C 

It seems like forever ago that Mejia burst on the scene with a strong 2014. Starting the year in the Dominican Summer League, the almost 17-year-old blitzed the DSL with 52 K's in 59 innings and just 11 walks. The native of Nicaragua made the rare in-season transition to the states and finished with 15 innings in the GCL. He faced just 16 hitters the entire year who were younger than him.

The expectations were sky-high for Mejia heading into 2015, but it would be a season to forget for the young lefty. After just 21.2 innings where the results were much more miserable, Mejia hit the DL  - a place he would remain for the rest of the year. He would return last season for 35.2 innings - still in the Gulf Coast League - and rebounded with a 2.96 FIP.

On the smallish side at just 5'11", Mejia has three pitches including a low-to-mid 90's fastball. He works off control (career 2.0 BB/9) and isn't likely to strikeout a ton of batters. He's kept the ball in the ballpark to this point, though that will be tested as he climbs the minor league ladder. I imagine the Braves would love to work him into the picture at Rome this season either before the Appalachian League season begins or after. He turns 20 in July so the time to get moving is now.

Below is the only video I could find of Mejia. It's in Spanish and you will have to skip to about 1:25 to see a brief clip of him.



47. Anfernee Seymour, SS, 21 years-old, Grade: C 

The 2016 Baseball Prospectus book had this to say about Seymour. "A local high school product, Anfernee Seymour was popped in the seventh round in 2014 because he's fast. He swiped the second-most bags in the New York-Penn League also because he's fast. He's fast." And that basically sums up Seymour to this point. In 215 career games, Seymour has swiped 83 bases and has been caught 21 times. But the bat...well, we're still waiting.

Acquired last season in the Hunter Cervenka trade, Seymour hit .257/.296/.303 at a pair of South Atlantic League stops last year. His walk rate was under 5% and his strikeout rate was on the wrong side of 20%. Seymour is a player who I don't see nearly as fondly as MLB Pipeline, which currently ranks him 19th (better than Patrick Weigel, A.J. Minter, and Braxton Davidson).

There is some skill here. A switch-hitter, Seymour is a good bunter, but doesn't use his speed well enough when he's swinging. With his lean frame, he ought to cut down on his swing and serve the ball where it's thrown. Instead, he too often tries the old Kevin Millwood method to hitting - Swing-Hard-In-Case-You-Hit-It. Millwood was a pitcher, though.

Seymour is also not a very gifted fielder. He has the speed to make up, to some degree, for iffy instincts and bad decisions in the field, but that still means that he's putting himself at a disadvantage. I could see the Braves moving him to second base, where his arm plays better. Atlanta could also try him again in the outfield, which he played some of in 2014. Either way, I don't foresee Seymour living up to the Top 20 MLB Pipeline billing.



46. Bryse Wilson, RHP, 19 years-old, grade: C

The 109th overall pick of the 2016 draft, the Braves had to convince Wilson to not attend UNC and instead, sign with Atlanta. By doing so, they put the cherry on the top of what was the 2016 draft. For a sign of how dominant Wilson was at Orange High School (Hillsborough, NC), you need only know this - he tossed multiple no-hitters his senior year. Multiple. As in, more than one.

Wilson spent the summer in the Gulf Coast League and in 26.2 innings, he K'd 29 and allowed just two earned runs. In six of his nine starts, he had at least a 2-to-1 GB to FB rate. Even though he didn't allow many baserunners, he induced four double plays in less than 30 innings of work. It remains to be seen if that groundball tendency will continue, though.

Standing 6'1" and weighing a stout 225 pounds, Wilson relies on a heater capable of reaching the mid-90's. To supplement his fastball, he throws a slider that has plus potential. The issue with Wilson and why I may rank him a bit lower than others is whether or not he profiles as a starter as he rises through the system. He needs an offspeed delivery and has to refine his slider to keep that option available. Nevertheless, for a 19-year-old, he's pretty dang impressive and should climb this and other prospect lists by next year.



45. Kade Scivicque, Catcher, 24 years-old, Grade: C

Originally a fourth-round pick out of LSU, Scivicque is, by default, the top catching prospect in terms of level + potential. I say default because the only real catching prospects are still A-ball and under. Still, Scivicque has some skills that might get him to the majors.

Before being acquired in August for Erick Aybar, Scivicque made quick work of the New York-Penn League and Midwest League. At the time of the deal, he was hitting .282/.324/.379 in the Florida State League. A right-handed hitter and thrower, Scivicque would split time between Carolina and Mississippi to end the regular season. He would also get an assignment in the Arizona Fall League where he posted an out-of-character 151 wRC+ over ten games.

Scivicque isn't particularly gifted behind the plate, though he is recognized as a solid game caller with good leadership skills. I've heard that he's a solid pitch framer as well. At the plate, he's fairly aggressive and his level swing mutes much in terms of power. A lot will have to go right to get Scivicque to the majors and he probably will max out as a backup. Nevertheless, that's still pretty good return for a month-and-a-half of Aybar.



44. Yunior Severino, SS, 17 years-old, Grade: C

It's easy to forget about the prospects signed last July who aren't named Kevin Maitan, but Severino was a big "get" in his own right. Ranked #8th among international prospects entering the signing period by Baseball America, Severino received a million to join the Braves. He won't make his debut until this season at the earliest, though he could skip the Dominican Summer League and immediately start his career in the GCL. A switch-hitter, Severino might still outgrow shortstop (the jury's still out), though he could stay in the middle infield and play second base. If so, he could be a big threat at second base as a potential 20-HR player.

Obviously, there isn't much information to go with here until we see Severino in game action, which won't happen until next June. With that said, last year's bounty of players has a chance to remake the franchise and Severino can play a starring role in doing so.



43. Abrahan Guiterrez, Catcher, 17 years-old, Grade: C

As far as pure potential goes, the Braves don't have a better catching prospect than Guitierrez. Signed for just $750K less than Kevin Maitan last July ($3.5M total), Guiterrez was ranked #15th in Baseball America's Top 50. Born on Halloween in 1999 in Venezuela, Guiterrez is a right-handed thrower and hitter.

Much like with Severino, right now, we are living on hype as we try to put together a scouting report. Guiterrez has a quick release behind the plate, though his footwork isn't very efficient yet. He's a little taller than you might like for a catcher (6'2"), but shows impressive athleticism behind the plate with mature (for his age) receiving skills. At the plate, he has a quick bat and the ability to serve line drives all over the field.

The Braves haven't had a catcher who was signed on the international market who later became a big contributor at the major league level since Javy Lopez. Could Guiterrez change that? Time will tell.



The Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Guiterrez

Check back next week for the next ten prospects as I continue to countdown to #1.