Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith

The Braves were active in John Hart's season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe
Gosselin for Touki
KJ/Uribe for Whalen/Gant

The Trade
As part of a three-team trade, Braves trade Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza, Alex Wood, and cash to the Dodgers for Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez, Zachary Bird, and a 2016 draft choice (35th overall, but subject to change) from the Marlins, who also sent Mat Latos and Mike Morse to the Dodgers for Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham, and Kevin Guzman. Yep, profiled that trade.

The Rationale

Scott Cunningham | Getty Images

Crushes die hard. Last winter, as Olivera worked out for a number of ballclubs, the Braves were a surprise team that was looking to invest big on the Cuban import. A .323/.407/.505 hitter in Cuba, Olivera was considered one of the best hitters left on the island before his defection. He had a silver medal in the Olympics and was part of the disappointing Cuban World Baseball Classic squad in 2009 that finished sixth.

The Braves pursued Olivera hard, but their offer wasn't close to the Dodgers' $62.5M offer over six years ($28M was a signing bonus). Olivera had some medical issues (blood disorder before his defection and a minor UCL tear), but was still considered a stout offensive player.

Like I said...old crushes die hard. The Braves wanted Olivera and considered him a future cog in their lineup. They appeared willing to make it happen and paid a steep price. Jose Peraza was the Braves' top prospect heading into 2015. His game had actually regressed since his 2013 season with Lynchburg. His walks percentage was cut in half and with no power to speak of, he was completely dependent on his bat control to get on base so that he could use his best weapon - his speed. But even his stolen base numbers had declined from 64 and 60 the previous two years to 36 in 2015. Injuries were a factor. The Braves saw a guy who had not advanced and with Jace Peterson a stopgap at second and Andrelton Simmons a fixture at short (right?), Peraza was considered a guy who while useful, was maybe not the impact prospect many had felt he was.

Alex Wood had been very good since arriving in the majors in 2013, but there were some concerns. His fastball velocity had declined (though he never brought much heat). His herky-jerky motion had always been a worry and his strikeouts had fell from nearly a quarter of all batters in 2014 to 18% at the time of the trade. His WHIP had reached 1.41. With a plethora of pitching prospects on the way, the Braves saw Wood as expendable.

The Dodgers also saw Olivera as expendable...at least when it came to winning a title with their bloated roster in 2015. With Justin Turner exceeding all expectations at third base and Corey Seager on the way (not to mention adding Peraza in this deal), the well-sought after Olivera felt more like an extra piece than one that would be a six-year starter. They may have also grew quickly tired of Olivera's hamstring and other concerns that kept him from making his debut with the Dodgers. Furthermore, they needed pitchers. While they had two of the top starters in baseball and a surprisingly durable Brett Anderson, the rest of the staff was unknown in the wake of Brandon McCarthy's early-season injury and Brandon Beachy's quick flameout shortly before the deadline. Adding both Wood and Latos solidified the staff while getting Johnson and Avilan was supposed to make the bullpen deeper. Johnson had been a great add for the Braves and had even filled in as closer due to Jason Grilli's injury, but his return to closer was short-lived. Avilan had went from surprising in 2012 to "how's he succeeding?" in 2013 to "ugh, he actually sucks" in 2014. He was closer to the better Avilan in 2015, but was prone to blow it and blow it big.

Back to Atlanta - they added a pair of pitchers in this deal with Bird and Paco. The latter would eventually need to go under the knife and we will have to wait until 2017 to see him pitch for the Braves. Good thing, too, because that 2017 team is going to be awesome (or so I hear). Bird is an athletic righty who is still raw. He's struggled with control, but has flashed strikeout potential.

Oh, yeah, the Marlins were in this deal. They shed some salary, got a few prospects, and gave the Braves a draft choice. Yay.

I almost forgot about Arroyo. I recently talked about how he came to the Braves. He's just a guy getting paid.

Short-Term Results
Olivera didn't impress in the minors, but when rosters expanded, he finally got a callup and...well, didn't impress that much in the majors either. Still rusty with the bat, Olivera looked damn near puzzled in the field. The Braves had hoped for a springboard September and got more questions than answers. Overall, he slashed .253/.310/.405 in 24 games and lost at-bats to Adonis Garcia.

On the farm, Bird was pushed to AA as the Braves are super aggressive with their prospects. He only started three games and struggled to throw strikes in each one. He was shut down after a 5-run, 5-walk two-inning outing against Mobile on August 13. He should be on schedule to resume his AA career when 2016 opens up.

The Dodgers acquired seven players in this deal and none of them were all that good. Dodgers did quickly pushed Wood to scrap his four-seamer and use his two-seamer along with more spiked curves. He got more grounders as a result, but didn't pitch any better. He appeared in one game in the NLDS and got lit up for four runs, including a three-run homer by Yoenis Cespedes which recently landed in Iowa. Avilan was used to get out lefties, which he does a good job against. He also appeared in the playoffs and retired all four batters he faced. Johnson went to hell in LA. He gave up three homers in 18.2 ING along with a ridiculous 32 hits. Now, he was unlucky to the most extreme degree, but that provided the Dodgers little solace. Peraza appeared in seven games, but hamstring troubles sidelined him ahead of the playoffs. He was the second youngest player in the NL last season.

I don't really care about the other players in this deal because they don't relate to the Braves much at all.

Long-Term Outlook
I know I call this series John Hart's trades, but this was John Coppolella's big money gamble. Even if the Braves were going to move Wood and/or Peraza regardless, doing so for Olivera took a lot of faith. While every scouting report has said that Olivera has the bat to be a productive major leaguer, scouting reports can and have been wrong.

The deal took a hit by the news that Olivera was moving to the outfield next season. Solidifying third base added value to this trade as finding plus-production at third base is not an easy task. Only a half-dozen qualified third baseman had a 120 or better RC+ in each of the last three seasons. The number isn't that different for left field, but it's considered an easier position to formulate a productive platoon than third base. Olivera's move to the outfield caused many, including myself, to re-question this deal and ask this question - just how wrong were the Braves about Olivera? If they were wrong that he could play a competent third base, are they wrong on his hitting?

Bird is a good lottery ticket. His fastball/slider suggests an eventual move to the bullpen, but if he can get either his change or curve to be a true #3 pitch, he could remain in the picture at starter as a bottom-of-the-rotation guy with the chance to progress a bit more. As for Paco, if healthy in 2017, he's a nice weapon. When he was at his best in 2013, he had an 82 cFIP. On a scale of 100, an 82 is 18% better than the league average and the exact mark that Noah Syndergaard had this year. However, he's only appeared in 37 games in the majors since. If healthy and back to his 10 K/9, 50% groundball form, he'll be a weapon through 2019, the final year of team control.

As an aside, it's difficult to preview the #35th overall pick and for that matter, I've seen others call it the #34th. Teams that sign players who were offered a qualified offer could lose their first round pick, which would make this selection even higher. For funsies, here's a list of selected players selected from #30-#35 over the last five years: Braxton Davidson, Jason Hursh, Aaron Judge, Brian Johnson, and Kevin Plawecki.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will enter 2016 with Avilan, Peraza, and Wood and room for all three on their roster. The results immediately after the trade didn't benefit them, but while Avilan might be serviceable enough (the Dodgers could non-tender him), Peraza and Wood each could play a big role on the next Dodgers team. Or they could be trade bait.

This epic trade ultimately looks less important as we move toward the Hot Stove season just a few months later. The Dodgers made the playoffs, but lost to the Mets. The Braves were already a sinking ship and losing Wood only prompted them to give a guy like Ryan Weber a look. Peraza could have been useful as an alternative to Peterson, but with Peraza failing to advance as a player, maybe the best thing was to cut bait while his value was high. Olivera was going to be the third baseman, but he's not a third baseman. Paco's hurt even before he pitches.

Some call this deal stupid. I wouldn't go that far, but I remain unconvinced that it was the right deal for the Braves. However, if Olivera hits .285/.340/.480 next season, I'll be a bit more on board with the gamble.

Once a Brave, Always a Brave - NL West

This week's return to Once a Brave focuses on a division with a lot of ex-Braves. The Braves have completed two deals with the D'Backs since March, two with the Dodgers since May, one with the Rockies, and a pair of pretty big deals with the Padres. Therefore, we have a lot of NL West guys to check in on. As usual, this list is not exhaustive and if you catch a player I missed, feel free to let me know.

Arizona Diamondbacks
P Randall Delgado - No longer even a consideration to start, Delgado just recently went to the DL with a sprained ankle. Before that, he had a 2.76 ERA, though other metrics aren't as impressed (3.71 SIERA).

C Gerald Laird - He played in one game this before hitting the DL because of his back. Five months later, he's still there.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia - This is Salty's second stop this year after the Marlins showed him the door. He has an on-again, off-again relationship with the Mendoza Line since coming to Arizona which, amazingly, is an improvement. He's just 30 years old.

2B Philip Gosselin - He remains on the shelf, though I imagine a rehab stint is coming soonish.

SS Nick Ahmed - It's astounding that the Diamondbacks, who have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot, are sticking with Ahmed at short. But hey, he did go 4-for-4 yesterday to increase his OBP from .280 to .289. In Arizona's defense, Ahmed is a pretty stout defender at shortstop.

3B Brandon Drury (AAA) - Of all the guys the Braves traded to the Diamondbacks two years ago, Drury was the guy I immediately wished could have stayed with Atlanta. Yes, I was more okay with getting rid of Martin Prado than Drury. On the year, Drury is hitting around .300 with just four homeruns while moving from AA to AAA more than a month ago. He's coming off a .299 season with 23 HR.

Colorado Rockies
P Yohan Flande - The Dominican lefty pitched for three years in the Braves system and logged 95 games with the organization - all but one with Gwinnett - and during the 2012 spring training, Flande looked like he might be first in line to fill the void created by Jonny Venters' injuries. However, the Braves sent him back to Gwinnett. That's about as close as he ever came to pitching for the Braves. He's appeared in 25 games over the last two seasons, including a dozen starts, for the Rockies and hasn't been all that bad (3.90 FIP).

P David Hale - I never liked Hale much as a Brave, but I still wouldn't wish a groin strain on him, but that's why he hit the DL after his last outing. That outing was a win in relief. Against the Braves. Yeah, whatever. Hale recently stunk in a rehab start and has a 5.69 ERA this season for the Rox.

P Jair Jurrjens (AAA) - Yep, he's still around and he has been putrid this season for Albuquerque (6.68 ERA in 14 games, 13 starts). He turns 30 next January, but the the 2011 All-Star has only thrown 65 innings in the majors since the end of 2011. He's got a 7.20 ERA when he has been used.

P Gus Schlosser (AA) - Schlosser has had such an interesting career. He was so good in 2013 and parleyed that into a good run the following spring to earn a spot in the pen. The results weren't all that pretty...in fact, they were pretty bad, but Schlosser did accomplish something kinda cool. He got a hit in his only plate appearance. He was non-tendered after the year for "reasons," but the Braves snatched him back up before trading him with Hale to the Rockies. Love ya, Gus!

Los Angeles Dodgers
P Bronson Arroyo - Is there some kind of record for number of teams whose DL's a player has been on in one year?

P Luis Avilan  - He's still waiting to make his first appearance. His last outing with the Braves was against the Orioles when he surrendered an extra-innings walk-off homer.

P Brandon Beachy (AAA) - It was a cool story that Beachy made it back, but after two starts, he was DFA'd as a result of the moves the Dodgers made. He decided to stick around the Dodgers' system.

P Trevor Cahill (AAA) - Did the Dodgers sign every ex-Brave? Cahill stunk and is still getting a decent amount from the Braves to be awful in AAA. Aces!

P Caleb Dirks (AA) - Don't look now, but the Juan Uribe trade may ultimately hurt a little. Dirks, who was picked up in the 15th round last year, started this year in Rome and has added time with Carolina, Rancho Cucamonga, and most recently - Tulsa. His ERA is under 1.00 for the year with well over a K an inning.

P Juan Jaime (AA) - Not news: Jaime can't stop walking people.

P Jim Johnson - In his first game, Johnson did exactly what he did in his final game with the Braves. He gave up a run. A home run to be exact which led to the Angels tying the game up in the 8th. Starting the game for the Angels was Cory Rasmus. Former Braves everywhere!

P Eric Stults (AA) - On the bright side, Stults, who joined the Dodgers as a AA pitcher, had made it back to AAA. I don't think I used "bright side" correctly. Unfortunately, because Beachy came back to AAA, Stults got pushed back to AA. Whole world is unfair.

P Ian Thomas (AAA) - The former independent league pitcher got his first major league start with the Dodgers earlier this year. He's been up a couple of times for the Dodgers, but mostly has been pretty bad in Oklahoma City.

P Alex Wood - On the night Jimmy Rollins returns to Philly, there won't be much of a spotlight on Wood, but he'll make his Dodgers debut against the Phils tonight. Former Brave Jeff Francoeur has had some luck against Wood in his career.

2B Jose Peraza - The former Braves top prospect has already added a homerun during his Dodgers organization run, his fourth overall of the year. He had five coming into this year. It's going to be interesting to see if Peraza sticks with the Dodgers long-term. With Howie Kendrick and Rollins free agents, the Dodgers could consider a Peraza/Corey Seager combo up the middle.

3B Alberto Callaspo - How does this guy stick around? He's OPS'd .609 since the trade.

San Francisco Giants
P Tommy Hanson (AAA) - Yep, he's around. In fact, there might be a game this year where Jurrjens and Hanson face one another. It's like the "What If" Bowl. Or maybe the "remember when these guys were our future?" Of course, that's under the belief Hanson doesn't get cut beforehand because he has been lit up in his first five starts with Sacramento.

P Tim Hudson - His back or his shoulder or his toe hurts so he's on the DL because it's fun to blatantly use the disabled list as a place to stick veterans when you don't have room for them. He wasn't that good before the "injury" and will retire at the end of the year.

IF Brandon Hicks (AAA) - A former 3rd rounder by the Braves out of Texas A&M, Hicks made it to the majors in 2010-11 with the Braves, but was extra-strength bad in a small amount of at-bats. After a stint in Oakland, he had a small run last year before reality set in. He's missed most of this year, but recently made it back to the active roster.

OF Gregor Blanco - He just keeps plugging along and has kept his OPS close to .800 this year. Pretty good year for a guy who was one traded for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth.

San Diego Padres
P Craig Kimbrel - His strikeout numbers are a little down (3.5% from last year) and a .289 BABIP has made him a little more hittable than usual. Still, while this could easily go down as his worst season, he's posted a 2.22 SIERA and 2.49 xFIP. I'd say that's still pretty good.

P Aaron Northcraft (AAA) - Also known as half of what the Padres got for Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Max Fried. Northcraft once threw a seven-inning no-hitter for the Lynchburg Hillcats in 2012, but never seemed to be a guy the Braves consider a real player in their system. He started this year in El Paso and stunk. A trip back to AA was successful, but he's been hit hard in his return to El Paso. He won't give up a lot of homers even in the Pacific Coast League due to his downward movement, but that won't stop hitters from reaching.

IF Ramiro Pena (AAA) - He's been an everyday player in El Paso where he has hit .312 this season while logging time at three infield positions. Because San Diego is who they are, Pena can't find a spot on the roster that has graciously given 264 PA to Alexi Amarista and his magical .576 OPS.

OF Justin Upton - He got off to a good start, but his overall numbers are pretty sad - even though he has been great at swiping bases. Upton turns 28 this month and has a good chance to enter free agency with his second sub-.800 OPS in the last four years. His free agency case will be interesting to watch in case someone overspends for potential over results. Amazingly, he's been great at Petco (.911 OPS) and awful on the road.

OF Melvin Upton Jr. - He's hitting better with the Padres than he ever did with the Braves. He's hitting .218. That said, getting his walk rate back to his days with the Rays has upped his OBP over .300 for the first time since 2011. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR this year. His fWAR with the Braves - 0.3. Slacker.

Braves Pick Up Minor League Southpaw

I'm a NASCAR fan. Not a fanatic, but a fan. So I was at my computer checking Twitter instead of sleeping while the rain-delayed race continued well into the night. As tweets about the race occupied a lot of my feed, a story about another Braves acquisition showed up. News broke last night that the Braves had pulled off a trade with the Astros. No, they weren't acquiring Jacob Nottingham, though he made my recent article posted today at About. Instead, they had picked up Mitchell Lambson. They will send the Astros cash considerations. That term has always amused me.

So, who is this Lambson guy? Born in Oregon in July of 1990, Lambson went undrafted out of high school and attended Arizona State. It was there that he was drafted in the 19th round of 2011. Nobody from that round and year has made it to the majors just yet. Also, if you just can't help be fascinated by weird things like me, you might ponder just who was the Braves pick that year in the 19th round? Troy Snitker. If that last name sounds familiar, it's because Troy is Brian Snitker's son. The elder Snitker was then the third base coach and is the current manager at Gwinnett. Ah, nepotism. To tie this up, the younger Snitker has returned to his alma mater of North Georgia University as a graduate assistant coach.

Lambson skipped rookie ball and headed to short-season A Tri-City after signing. He appeared in 22 games out of the pen and gave up a few too many homers, but struck out over a batter an inning. With his great control, the lefty posted a 4.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. As we found out later, that wouldn't be abnormal.

Over his career, Lambson has steadily climbed the ladder toward the majors. On May 23rd, he made his AAA debut and has held his own in a much more difficult league to pitch in than the International League. In 150 games - all in relief - Lambson has ratios such as 9.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.6 HR/9. A deeper dive into his numbers highlights a few interesting things, courtesy of minorleaguecentral.com.

At first, and you know this if you follow me on twitter (and you should), Lambson appears like a pitcher without any platoon preference. It could even be argued he has reverse splits. This is what happens when you cycle through each year's splits while focusing on things like opposing OPS for a simple reference. A bigger look unlocks some better information. Lambson does show a platoon preference (though not a huge one) and it's how you would expect a lefthander's numbers to go. Here is a few career numbers of interest.

Split	FIP	SIERA	GB%	BABIP	K%	BB%	WHIP
vs. L	2.21	2.49	39.6%	.352	27.3%	3.4%	1.19
vs. R	2.91	2.96	33.6%	.275	27.2%	7.5%	1.10

Simply put, the more you know, the better you are to make an observation. My quick observation from last night was lacking. What stands out to me (along with this person you should also follow) is that BABIP against lefties is ridiculously high. But sample size probably has a lot to do with it. It's weird that he's ran a high BABIP every season against lefties, but several instances of something does not in itself make a trend. It does make us wonder, of course. I'm inclined to believe a higher LD% rate is the bigger culprit and a 5% difference between splits there can lead to a lot of balls falling to the ground rather than harmlessly into someone's glove. Still, the deeper numbers push us toward believing he is more dominant against lefties.

Speaking of dominance, that's all that can be discerned regardless of the split. There's a lot to like in these numbers so did the Braves get someone ultra cheap? Let's look at the scouting report.

While his numbers scream dominance, his stuff doesn't. He stays in the high 80s and has to bring it to crack 90 mph. That's odd in today's world of triple digit velocity. To make up for that, Lambson uses his changeup often to both get ahead and get out hitters and it's a damn good one. For someone of his limitations to get by with a changeup like that, you have to believe he's both repeating his delivery and showing no sign of a changeup leaving his fingers which in itself is an accomplishment for young pitchers. As you might notice with the pic I used and a look at this one, the southpaw hides the ball well, which only adds to the batter's difficulty. Lambson depends on intelligence and deception, which should not be taken to mean he doesn't have the stuff and control to get out batters. But because he lacks that awe-inspiring velocity or excellent breaking ball, Lambson won't make many prospect lists. He probably should - especially organizational reliever lists. He has been superb throughout his career and at this point, you can't argue that it's just pure luck.

Atlanta certainly could use a lefty for their pen. They currently are relying on Luis Avilan who, for what it's worth, is a lot better against lefties than fans want to believe. But that's all Avilan is - a decent, but not great, option against left-hand batters who is substandard against righties. Andrew McKirahan, the Rule 5 pick that he is, showed good numbers in the minors regardless of split and is due back from suspension shortly after the All-Star Break. The Braves have every reason to see what they have with McKirahan and whether he can build on a decent enough three-game start earlier this year to potentially be a part of the 2016 picture. With Lambson, they have another option. They could even go to three lefties when McKirahan returns (or when they decide to bring up Lambson). Either way, getting Lambson was a smart low-cost, high-reward deal for the Braves front office and I think this may be one with John Coppolella's fingerprints all over it. If so, I feel good about what happens when John Hart cedes control to Coppy.

Random Prospect Sunday: Rundown

Once again this season, each Sunday (probably), I will look at a random prospect from the Braves system. A few will be stars, some will be journeymen, others will be organizational filler. The basics of the series is simple. Using Baseball-Reference's list of minor league players and Random.org's number generator, I alternate position players and pitchers to find a player to write about. Sometimes, especially if there's little available information, I'll skip the player, but mostly, I go with what I'm given. It's a fun series that gives a little attention to guys who probably are rarely written about outside of game recaps. Let's see who I've written about before and if I know, where are they now?

2012

Catcher Braeden Schlehuber - Profile
...an organizational guy, Schlehuber can't seem to leave Mississippi. He's spent the greater part of the last three years there and he might be headed back for all I know (though recent transactions may get him to Gwinnett finally). Appeared in eleven games with the big league club this spring.

Pitcher Luis Avilan - Profile
...no one received a bigger Walk Off Walk bump than Avilan, who made his debut in the majors less than a month after I profiled him as the second player in the Random Prospect series. Avilan has spent most of the last two-and-a-half years in the majors, but struggled last year. He was good enough this spring (and the others sucked enough) so Avilan is back in the majors. He's still never thanked me.

Catcher Matt Kennelly - Profile
...a fairly common addition to this series is organizational catchers. Kennelly, like Schlehuber, has seen a lot of Mississippi, but unlike Schlehuber, the Aussie has played in Gwinnett and even spent some time in the Reds organization. He returned in 2014 and saw some action this spring with the Braves.

Pitcher Matt Talley - Profile
...Talley was a 28th rounder out of The Citadel in 2011, but his time with the Braves ended about a week after I profiled him. I guess he got the complete opposite of the bump I gave Avilan. After finishing 2012 with the White Sox, his career was over. He's not a "transmission engineer."

Third Baseman Joe Leonard - Profile
...I've never seen such a big guy show so little power. Leonard was a bust out of Pitt who was all-glove and could never really hit. In five years, the 6'5", 220 pound imposing monster hit 23 homers. He was cut in January.

Pitcher Ian Marshall - Profile
...the success rate of a guy drafted out of the 40th round is pretty low and Marshall hasn't been able to help it go higher. In three years, including one robbed by injury, Marshall struggled with homers and missing enough bats. After the Braves cut him, he's spent the last two years with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, though he's not on their roster right now.

2013

Second Baseman Ross Heffley - Profile
...there was a time where Heffley was getting some Marcus Giles-like love. An 18th rounder out of Western Carolina, Heffley made a successful jump from college to Rome in 2012, but as if someone flipped a switch, he forgot how to hit. He was cut after 2013 and hasn't played since.

Pitcher Ryan Buchter - Profile
...my second major league lefty who got to the majors after I profiled him, Buchter's success in the majors has been pretty short so far. He appeared in one game on June 20th, pitching a quiet 12th inning against the Nats. After Atlanta scored twice, Buchter got the win and soon was returned to the minors. Atlanta outrighted him after the season and he has since signed with the Dodgers, but didn't make their opening day roster.

Shortstop Jose Peraza - Profile
...yes, it is possible for this series to profile real prospects and Peraza was really the first one I had. Of course, we all know the story at this point. He was optioned to Gwinnett a couple of weeks ago after an underwhelming camp, but he will be back and maybe even this summer.

Pitcher J.R. Graham - Profile
...it was a little surprising who was kept on the 40-man roster this offseason over protecting Graham, who naturally was picked by the Twins. He's a former Top 100 prospect, but at the same time, he has hit a wall in both terms of a dropping velocity and staying healthy. He has made the Twins roster, though he was hardly impressive this spring.

First Baseman William Beckwith - Profile
...here's a lesson for you. Don't get into legal trouble if you are a non-prospect. That's what happened with Beckwith, who was solid with Rome in 2012, but was arrested for a DUI with Lynchburg the following year. A suspension followed and the organization released Beckwith soon after. He caught on with Washington, but not the Nationals. The Washington Wild Things, whose pitching coach last year was Kevin Gryboski. I only know that because Grysboski was a member of my other random series. Beckwith's not on their roster next year.

Pitcher Alex Wilson - Profile
...quick question: who led Braves minor leaguers in saves last season? Juan Jaime. Who was second? My boy, Wilson. A 15th rounder in 2012, Wilson has steadily moved up the ladder with impeccable control and enough K's to get consideration as a borderline prospect. He's a guy to keep an eye on with Mississippi.

First Baseman Casey Kalenkosky - Profile
...Ory had some promise, but his lack of power was killing his chances to stick at first. Atlanta saw that and tried Ory at catcher during 2013, but apparently was not impressed enough to bring him back last year. He has also worked at the Bowie Baseball Academy with former Brave, Micah Bowie.

Pitcher Carlos Perez - Profile
...I really wanted Perez to develop into the pitcher he seemed capable of becoming, but injuries are difficult enough to deal with when you can locate your pitches, which Perez too often could not. He was recently cut by the Braves.

Shortstop Elmer Reyes - Profile
...it kind of amazes me that a middle infielder without any power can have a BB/K output like 12/93 as Reyes had last year. A thoroughly unexciting prospect, I wonder if Reyes will be desiginated for assignment today as the Braves look for room on their 40-man. He's got a decent stick, but no power and no discipline combined with little speed makes for a guy who needs a perfect set of circumstances to get to the bigs.

Pitcher Omar Poveda - Profile
...for a day, I really wanted to see Poveda in the majors. But it didn't happen and he moved on to the Nationals organization (via a trade with the White Sox), where he would struggle. Not sure where he landed this offseason.

2014

Utility Player Philip Gosselin - Profile
...Goose became my first player to have already played in the majors to make this series. He also would soon get back to the majors after I profiled him and received a decent amount of playing time for the Braves. He followed that up by making the roster this spring. You're welcome, Phil.

Pitcher Andry Ubiera - Profile
...a late international signing in 2010, Ubiera struggled in his efforts with Rome last year and received a demotion to Danville to finish the year. Still a raw pitcher, Ubiera's time is now if he's going to make any kind of difference.

Outfielder Kyle Wren - Profile
...a speedy 4th outfielder type, Wren was doomed by the firing of his father. He didn't receive much of a look with the Brewers this spring, but could get to the majors at some point even if it's just a cup of coffee.

Pitcher Jarrett Miller - Profile
...with almost 300 innings in the book in the Carolina League, Miller has shown that there is little that sets him apart from being durable. The Braves concurred and recently released Miller.

Outfielder David Nick - Profile
...picked up for depth last season, Nick gave Lynchburg a boost with his .294 average, but as the Diamondbacks had done before, Nick was released last December among a bunch of cuts.

Pitcher Nate Hyatt - Profile
...I rather liked Hyatt's potential, especially with tempting K/9's above 10, but that tends to also attract attention. He was part of the January trade to acquire Ricardo Sanchez, but most focused on Kyle Kubitza.

First Baseman/Outfielder Joey Terdoslavich - Profile
...armed with a tremendous nickname, we have seen both the good and bat out of Terdo. He came onto the scene with a wonderful 2012 in the Carolina League, fell to pieces with an ill-advised attempted move to third in 2013, and started poorly before a strong finish in 2014. He looked like he was a shoe-in for the opening day roster this year, but a wrist injury torpedo'd his chances.

Pitcher Andy Otero - Profile
...our final Random Prospect is an iffy reliever who was a bit too hittable last year with Rome. Still, he is on Carolina's roster right now so it looks like the Braves still have some hope in him. And since the majority of the 2014 Random Prospect class has moved on, I'll take solace in at least Otero remaining to help the 2015 class get acclimated. Yeah, I don't know what that meant, either.

See ya, James!

The release of James Russell on Sunday was a bit shocking. Sure, Braves beat writers will point out that he gave up nine earned runs in 7.2 ING to go with a 3/3 BB/K. But it was still surprising to see a guy who was expected to be safe as one of the relievers in the remodeled bullpen get cut in spring training. No trade - just flat-out released. The Braves did save nearly $2M by releasing Russell before opening day.

That might not be his updated picture...

Russell had an odd 2014. Despite holding lefties to a .280 OBP throughout his career, including last season, he couldn't get them out at all in 2014. They slashed their way to .284/.351/.455, though he was a bit better against them once traded to the Brave (still a .333 OBP, but no power). Conversely, he was very good against righties, limiting them to a .421 OPS. All told, it wasn't the year he wanted, but here's the thing. When you put everything together, it was a pretty good year. He had a 3.44 FIP, a new personal low, and set personal bests in xFIP, HR/9, WHIP, and GB%.

Yet, he wasn't the pitcher he was before. After 33 shutdowns over the two years before 2014, he had just nine last year and for the first time since his rookie year, he had more meltdowns than shutdowns. And of course, when you are paid to get lefties out, getting the righty out after letting the lefty reach won't win over much confidence.

But he still appeared safe. After all, Josh Outman has also struggled this spring and doesn't have the past success to really lean on. Instead, it's Outman who appears to have a bit more job security. Luis Avilan, who struggled badly in 2014 and is hardly a favorite of those who use statistical analysis, might also have improved his stock enough to be safe. But there may still be a move to be made that would bring in another reliever. The Braves are also high on Brady Feigl, who I profiled earlier this month.

Russell had his moments. He was actually a starting candidate, but maybe it's just me, but players that were sought and rated highly by the previous front office just don't seem to have as much love with the new front office. Russell was a guy Frank Wren wanted. The Braves gave up a decent hitting prospect in Victor Caratini to get Russell, along with Emilio Bonifacio. Now, the the Braves have nothing to show for it. Seemed like an overreaction because you have to believe someone would have traded a borderline C prospect for Russell. But I guess the Braves felt he just wasn't worth keeping him around. I hope they're right.

Roster Prediction: Where the 25 Stand (March 29 Final Edition)

Time to make one last 25-man roster prediction for the season. By this time next week, we will know what the roster is finally. It's been as wide-open as any spring in recent memory and I am willing to bet at least two of the guys I have on the 25-man won't be there when the season opens. But...hey, gotta try to guess. Although, the Braves threw me a curveball when a guy I thought was pretty safe, James Russell, was released.

For the first three versions of this series, click here or here or even here.

Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Eric Stults

My Take? No change here unless we see a trade open up things. Michael Foltynewicz had a bat outing and Manny Banuelos was optioned. Cody Martin is still around, but at this point, I think the Braves are going with these five until Mike Minor returns.

Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Michael Kohn
RH - Brandon Cunniff (added)
LH Josh Outman

My Take? My best when we saw Mark Bowman talk this week about what it would take to release Outman or Russell that something was going to happen. I figured it would be Outman getting the heave-ho, but instead, it was Russell, who has forced me to edit this from the original draft from last night. I still think that a trade will add a buy-low, high-reward guy to this mix and Cunniff won't be there when the season opens, but with Russell gone, Cunniff has made a good case to be the best internal option. Martin still could drop into this role for a long guy. Of course, the Braves could also cut Outman.

Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C

My Take? With the season so close, I want to talk a little bit more about the lineup. It's hard to ever get a feel for how Fredi Gonzalez, or really any manager, wants to use the lineup in spring training because you rarely see all of the regular starters together. I've seen C-Beth clean up and we've seen a lot of Jace batting second. We've also seen Markakis hit second and third with Freeman pushed to cleanup. Above represents my best guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Jace leadoff rather than hit second. I don't think Fredi wants to go with a trio of lefties following Young.

Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
IF - Kelly Johnson
IF - Alberto Callaspo
IF/OF - Philip Gosselin (added)
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
Dropping: OF Eury Perez

My Take? The bench got a little cleared up with the demotion of Eury this week. For the time being, I've added The Goose to the bench and I think it's a pretty reasonable addition. Obviously, Pedro Ciriaco has been hitting the lights out of the ball and I could easily put him there, but I still think the sheer amount of the spots that would have to be cleared on the 40-man roster for non-roster guys might play a role before the beginning of the year. From this roster, I am looking at finding room for two starting pitchers, a reliever, a starting player, and a bench guy. That's five spots total. Not that the 40-man roster is packed with irreplaceable talent, but do the Braves want to move on from so many guys? Something might get cleared up by a trade and there are reports the Braves are in the market for an outfielder. Of course, Russell getting cut helped out a little.

Braves Roster Beat: March 26 (About.com)

If you missed it, the Braves played today. They even won. Chris Johnson capped off a five-run first inning with a two-run homer, though sadly Bad Wandy Rodriguez showed up and switched uniforms with his better alter ego. He was still in line to get the dubya, but Josh Outman failed to live up to his name. Fortunately, the Braves have Jonny Gomes and he homered to put the Braves back on top. For more analysis, check the About.com page where I go a bit more into Johnson and Outman, plus go over a semi-surprising retirement.

Roster Prediction: Where the 25 Stand (March 22 Edition)

Another week in and some new changes to the roster for the third edition of "Where the 25 Stand." For previous editions, you can click here or here.

Starting Rotation

1. Julio Teheran

2. Alex Wood

3. Shelby Miller

4. Wandy Rodriguez (up from #5 starter)

5. Eric Stults (downgraded to #5)

My Take? No one has outpitched Wandy so far in camp so it's not difficult to understand why he's already just about claimed the fourth spot. Stults hasn't been great and he won't strike out anyone, but really, the challengers aren't there to take this spot from him. Michael Foltynewicz and Manny Banuelos needed to have ridiculous camps to really claim a spot and veterans James Russell and Chien-Ming Wang haven't exactly been intriguing. Then...there's Cody Martin. If the Braves are able to cash in Wandy or Stults for a decent enough prospect, Martin could leapfrog into the fifth spot to start the year.

Bullpen

Closer - Craig Kimbrel

RH - Jason Grilli

RH - Jim Johnson

LH - James Russell

LH - Josh Outman

---

LH - Luis Avilan

RH - Michael Kohn

My Take? I still haven't made a change since my first edition and I feel comfortable with this seven. That said, I'm not married to the idea. Arodys Vizcaino has shown some life of late and some pitchers in other organizations will get pushed out due to being out out of options. Juan Jaime has to be considered because he is actually out of options, but retiring just 13 of the first 24 he faced this spring won't help considering he's been so poor. I'd put Martin as a possibility, but I think they'll want him at Gwinnett if he's not in the majors stretched out. That said, if Stults falters, could Martin push Stults to the pen? Doubtful, but I guess it's possible.

Lineup

1. Eric Young Jr., CF

2. Nick Markakis, RF

3. Freddie Freeman, 1B

4. Chris Johnson, 3B

5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF

6. Andrelton Simmons, SS

7. Jace Peterson, 2B

8. Christian Bethancourt, C

Bench

C - A.J. Pierzynski

IF - Kelly Johnson (added to bench)

IF - Alberto Callaspo

OF Eury Perez 

OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)

Dropping: 1B/OF Joey Terdoslavich (dropping)

My Take? Last week, I had Eury replacing KJ, but KJ's shown signs of life over the last week and Terdo has began to struggle. I'm starting to think Zoilo's job, which I've assumed was set in stone, might be up for grabs. He hasn't looked that good this spring, but he is out of options and the Braves can afford to take an extended look at him. If this bench holds, it would be shame for both Terdo and Todd Cunningham, who would be ticketed for a third trip to Gwinnett even though both have had good camps. I've kept Pedro Ciriaco off the list because I don't think he's a major league talent, but Fredi might be fooled. 

Finally, there is a developing issue. With two starters, a reliever, and two other position players - the Braves would have to find five spots on the 40-man roster for non-roster invitees. I have them at 39 currently so that would be room for one of the spots. Putting Daniel Winkler on the 60-day DL will open up a second spot. But three other players would have to be designated. Not that the room can't be found, but it makes me think Hart's not done dealing. 

Roster Prediction: Where the 25 Stand (March 15 Edition)

Last Sunday, I had my first 25-man prediction. Obviously, we are still a couple of weeks before having a better idea of where the Braves stand, but it's still fun to guess. Let's see how things have changed. Spoiler: Not too much yet.

Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Eric Stults (up from #5 starter)
5. Wandy Rodriguez (added to rotation)
Dropping: #4 Mike Minor

My Take? With the news this week that confirmed that Minor will miss the start of the year, it opened a spot for someone to step in and after a weak first start, Wandy has looked much better. This may come down to the Braves wanting to see if Stults or Wandy can have some early success and possibly turn that into a trade. Cody Martin has looked impressive at times, but he has options. Chien-Ming Wang had been a bit of a sleeper until stinking it up on Saturday.

Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
LH - James Russell
LH - Josh Outman
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Michael Kohn

My Take? The first five are set in stone (though roles aren't set), but that still leaves two open spots for competition. After a week of action, I haven't wavered from my original two picks. You can look at Brady Feigl, who profiled here, but I imagine injuries will have to pile up for Feigl to jump to the bigs. Justin Jackson and Sugar Ray Marimon have also looked good, though I think they are playing for a look later in case a spot opens in May or June. If Martin makes a surprising jump to the rotation, could we see Wandy or Stults go to the pen? Possibly.

Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C

Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B/OF - Joey Terdoslavich
IF - Alberto Callaspo
OF Eury Perez (added to bench)
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
Dropping: UT Kelly Johnson

My Take? Not yet ready to make a lineup adjustment, though I am leaning toward dropping Almonte from the LF platoon in favor of Terdo, who has raked this spring. His minor league numbers don't scream platoon like Almonte's do, but if he's going to hit, who cares? If Almonte drops from a time share at one of the outfield slots, could he lose his job on the team? Absolutely and in that case, I imagine Phil Gosselin will get a longer look. As for KJ...he hasn't hit...at all. That said, if Markakis misses the start of the year, it could open a spot for KJ to sneak onto the team. Also, in that case, I imagine Jace will bat second. He might hit there anyway and maybe Markakis will be in the five spot regardless.

Truthfully, I could spend all days with just those eight guys and come up with a billion different examples.