If you weren't aware, I also publish posts at atlantabraves.about.com. I typically post a few times each week over there and here are my three most recent articles there.
Braves New GM Means Little Has Changed
When John Coppolella was "promoted" into his new job, it didn't mean much had actually been altered about the Braves braintrust. Over the last year+, Coppy has been basically the guy in charge of things with John Hart as his advisor. It was Coppy that did the legwork for deals that sent Craig Kimbrel to San Diego and Alex Wood to the Dodgers while bringing back players like Matt Wisler, Cameron Maybin, and Hector Olivera. Coppy was also instrumental in re-working the minor league system as the Braves gave him the freedom to do what they refused to do under his predecessor - Rebuild. Whether this relationship with the other 2/3's of the Holy John Trinity above him will succeed is definitely up for debate, but Coppy gets his first shot at being a major league general manager. We'll see how it works out.
The 11 Best Moments of the 2015 Braves Season
From a 5-0 start to a double-header sweep that also included Shelby Miller's winless streak coming to a close, 2015 had a lot of great moments even as the Braves suffered through one of their worst seasons since the 80's. There was walk-offs from Adonis Garcia and Maybin, magical comebacks like the one against the Giants, the return of Peter Moylan, and the continued magic of Andrelton Simmons at shortstop - plus many more. Even in a bad year, fans were given a lot to cheer about.
Starting Pitching Options for the Braves in Free Agency
The Braves don't often venture into the free agent market for starting pitching. Several years ago, Frank Wren tried to restock the rotation with free agents Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, but since then, the rotation has often been stocked by homegrown talent, trades, and one-year pacts with guys like Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang. The good money is that the Braves won't spend much in the starting pitching market, especially considering Mike Minor looks like a guy they might bring back in 2016, but if they do go shopping, I found a few players who might help the Braves and possibly, at a good price.
Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter and bookmark both this blog and the one at About for future updates.
Showing posts with label Harang. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harang. Show all posts
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Friday, September 18, 2015
Reviewing Hart's Trades: Heyward/Miller
The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! And I had to ignore a lot of the minor deals to come to that number. Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
The Trade
Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. I reviewed the deal first with a knee-jerk reaction and second with the reasons I both loved and hated the deal.
The Rationale
For the Braves, the deal was accepting the inevitable. Heyward was a goner in the post-2015 world so why not be proactive and make a trade to get something now. While Heyward was both a fan favorite and young enough to expect even bigger things out of him, he was also a guy who - in the midst of a plethora of extensions being handed out - accepted a short-term deal after 2013 to buy out his remaining arbitration years. He was gone and we all seemed to feel it happening even if some fans held out hope the Braves would suddenly find $20 million in their other pants.
Beyond just giving up Heyward, the Braves were also staring at a lack of pitching in both the minors and, more notably, the major league rotation. Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang were free agents and exiting with their combined 400.1 innings. Alex Wood and Julio Teheran were returning along with the questions that were present with Mike Minor. Injured Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were even bigger question marks and both would be non-tendered rather than brought back. The Braves needed a starter and got one in Miller, who had showed both the good and not-so-good about his game in two seasons in the majors.
The addition of Jenkins and Walden in this trade were less noteworthy to this trade, but for the Braves, the trade also gave them an exciting, if unknown, hurler. The Braves needed young pitching and if Walden smoothed over the concerns of the Cardinals, that was just fine because the Braves would find some relievers somewhere to help out. Right? ...sadface
I'm not a Cards expert, but we all knew the Cardinals saw Heyward as an immediate replacement to Oscar Taveras, the exciting rookie who had tragically perished in an automobile accident. Walden was also expected to shore up a bullpen that was losing Carlos Martinez to the rotation. Plus, I have to believe the Cards were not anxious to use a 40-man spot on the unknown Jenkins, but also didn't want to lose him in the Rule 5 draft for nothing.
Short-Term Results
Let's start with the Cardinals first. Heyward has largely stayed healthy and productive for the Cards this season, though the power numbers remain disappointing. He remains an elite-level player in center, though his metrics haven't been as crazy awesome as they were last year when he had 32 DRS. All in all, Heyward has been great for St. Louis and paces them in WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. He remains on track to hit free agency after the World Series - a Series the Cards are strong contenders to reach.
As for Walden, he got off to a great start, but hit the DL at the end of April with a biceps injury. Later on, rotator cuff trouble kept him on the mend and efforts to get back on the mound have proved unsuccessful. His season officially came to a close a few weeks ago. He's trying to avoid surgery because the rate of pitchers that return from that particular surgery is not high. Interestingly, a physical let the Cards know that his shoulder possibly had issues, but that didn't stop them from promising $6M through 2016 to Walden.
Very little hasn't been said about Miller at this point. Relying more on a two-seam fastball than ever, Miller has been a different pitcher for the Braves than he was with the Cardinals. Of course, we all know about the loses - a league-high 15 right now. He's gone 22 starts since his last win, a streak that ties Carl Morton for the most consecutive starts without a win for the Atlanta record and is four games off the pace for the franchise record. It should be added (I guess) that Miller's case is special since his streak is restrained to one season unlike the other two. Our old buddy Jo-Jo Reyes and Matt Keough hold the MLB record at 28 straight winless starts while Jack Nabors holds the single season record with 27.
But unlike them, Miller has been very productive. His 3.00 ERA, which is on the rise, would still set a new low. He's matched his previous two seasons' output with two shutouts in 2015 while already setting a new high in innings. He'll likely add a new strikeout high before the end of the season. On a team without a lot going right and even with Miller's crazy winless streak, he's been consistent for Atlanta in giving them a chance to win - even if they are too inept to take advantage of it.
As for Jenkins, he stayed (mostly) healthy this season for the first time in his career and logged 138.1 ING between AA and AAA. Just 23 years-old, Jenkins has a real opportunity to parlay his success into an extended look next spring.
Long-Term Outlook
Again, let's start with St. Louis. Walden is a toss-up at this point if he's going to avoid surgery and if he doesn't, it's a toss-up if he ever pitches in the majors again. That's unfortunate because he's such a fun pitcher to watch and when he's on, he's really on. Heyward's been hitting well this month and looks primed for a big pay day. If it doesn't come with the Cardinals, it'll come from someone. There is a real chance Heyward will get $200M this offseason even though people who value traditional counting stats won't understand why. Without a World Series ring, the Cardinals could be looking at one-and-done with Heyward and little from Walden as the price for Miller and Jenkins.
The Braves will take that exchange, of course. Miller seemed primed to spend the next few seasons helping to shore up the front of Atlanta's staff. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this season and has been pretty durable to this point. Atlanta might even look to lock Miller up for the foreseeable future rather than go year-to-year with him, though that's just a guess. As for Jenkins, again, he could be in the staff next spring, though I believe he'll be too low from the starting depth chart to sneak his way into the staff. Nevertheless, with some productive outings at Gwinnett, he'll be in the majors sooner rather than later.
Overall, Atlanta can make the claim that they've already won this deal, though the Cardinals could easily say they have the pitching to compete and adding Miller wouldn't have made them all that much better. Conversely, not having Heyward may have wrecked them. Either way, the Braves weren't going to keep Heyward and are glad to have a pair of arms to play on their next good team.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
The Trade
Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. I reviewed the deal first with a knee-jerk reaction and second with the reasons I both loved and hated the deal.
The Rationale
For the Braves, the deal was accepting the inevitable. Heyward was a goner in the post-2015 world so why not be proactive and make a trade to get something now. While Heyward was both a fan favorite and young enough to expect even bigger things out of him, he was also a guy who - in the midst of a plethora of extensions being handed out - accepted a short-term deal after 2013 to buy out his remaining arbitration years. He was gone and we all seemed to feel it happening even if some fans held out hope the Braves would suddenly find $20 million in their other pants.
Beyond just giving up Heyward, the Braves were also staring at a lack of pitching in both the minors and, more notably, the major league rotation. Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang were free agents and exiting with their combined 400.1 innings. Alex Wood and Julio Teheran were returning along with the questions that were present with Mike Minor. Injured Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were even bigger question marks and both would be non-tendered rather than brought back. The Braves needed a starter and got one in Miller, who had showed both the good and not-so-good about his game in two seasons in the majors.
The addition of Jenkins and Walden in this trade were less noteworthy to this trade, but for the Braves, the trade also gave them an exciting, if unknown, hurler. The Braves needed young pitching and if Walden smoothed over the concerns of the Cardinals, that was just fine because the Braves would find some relievers somewhere to help out. Right? ...sadface
I'm not a Cards expert, but we all knew the Cardinals saw Heyward as an immediate replacement to Oscar Taveras, the exciting rookie who had tragically perished in an automobile accident. Walden was also expected to shore up a bullpen that was losing Carlos Martinez to the rotation. Plus, I have to believe the Cards were not anxious to use a 40-man spot on the unknown Jenkins, but also didn't want to lose him in the Rule 5 draft for nothing.
Short-Term Results
Let's start with the Cardinals first. Heyward has largely stayed healthy and productive for the Cards this season, though the power numbers remain disappointing. He remains an elite-level player in center, though his metrics haven't been as crazy awesome as they were last year when he had 32 DRS. All in all, Heyward has been great for St. Louis and paces them in WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. He remains on track to hit free agency after the World Series - a Series the Cards are strong contenders to reach.
As for Walden, he got off to a great start, but hit the DL at the end of April with a biceps injury. Later on, rotator cuff trouble kept him on the mend and efforts to get back on the mound have proved unsuccessful. His season officially came to a close a few weeks ago. He's trying to avoid surgery because the rate of pitchers that return from that particular surgery is not high. Interestingly, a physical let the Cards know that his shoulder possibly had issues, but that didn't stop them from promising $6M through 2016 to Walden.
Very little hasn't been said about Miller at this point. Relying more on a two-seam fastball than ever, Miller has been a different pitcher for the Braves than he was with the Cardinals. Of course, we all know about the loses - a league-high 15 right now. He's gone 22 starts since his last win, a streak that ties Carl Morton for the most consecutive starts without a win for the Atlanta record and is four games off the pace for the franchise record. It should be added (I guess) that Miller's case is special since his streak is restrained to one season unlike the other two. Our old buddy Jo-Jo Reyes and Matt Keough hold the MLB record at 28 straight winless starts while Jack Nabors holds the single season record with 27.
But unlike them, Miller has been very productive. His 3.00 ERA, which is on the rise, would still set a new low. He's matched his previous two seasons' output with two shutouts in 2015 while already setting a new high in innings. He'll likely add a new strikeout high before the end of the season. On a team without a lot going right and even with Miller's crazy winless streak, he's been consistent for Atlanta in giving them a chance to win - even if they are too inept to take advantage of it.
As for Jenkins, he stayed (mostly) healthy this season for the first time in his career and logged 138.1 ING between AA and AAA. Just 23 years-old, Jenkins has a real opportunity to parlay his success into an extended look next spring.
Long-Term Outlook
Again, let's start with St. Louis. Walden is a toss-up at this point if he's going to avoid surgery and if he doesn't, it's a toss-up if he ever pitches in the majors again. That's unfortunate because he's such a fun pitcher to watch and when he's on, he's really on. Heyward's been hitting well this month and looks primed for a big pay day. If it doesn't come with the Cardinals, it'll come from someone. There is a real chance Heyward will get $200M this offseason even though people who value traditional counting stats won't understand why. Without a World Series ring, the Cardinals could be looking at one-and-done with Heyward and little from Walden as the price for Miller and Jenkins.
The Braves will take that exchange, of course. Miller seemed primed to spend the next few seasons helping to shore up the front of Atlanta's staff. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this season and has been pretty durable to this point. Atlanta might even look to lock Miller up for the foreseeable future rather than go year-to-year with him, though that's just a guess. As for Jenkins, again, he could be in the staff next spring, though I believe he'll be too low from the starting depth chart to sneak his way into the staff. Nevertheless, with some productive outings at Gwinnett, he'll be in the majors sooner rather than later.
Overall, Atlanta can make the claim that they've already won this deal, though the Cardinals could easily say they have the pitching to compete and adding Miller wouldn't have made them all that much better. Conversely, not having Heyward may have wrecked them. Either way, the Braves weren't going to keep Heyward and are glad to have a pair of arms to play on their next good team.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Once a Brave, Always a Brave - NL East
In today's look around the league at former Braves, the focus is on the NL East. Because teams to not deal with their divisional rivals often, there aren't a lot of ex-Braves in the NL East - though most of the ones that are populate major league rosters. As usual, this list cannot be considered exhaustive and there is a better than average chance I'm missing a player or two. If you know of one, please comment below.
Miami Marlins
P Mike Dunn - He only spent 25 games with the Braves back in 2010 and walked way too many batters, but Dunn has been a solid reliever for Florida/Miami since arriving in the trade we try not to talk about involving a current National. He's been a little iffy this year for the Marlins, posting a 1.43 WHIP to go with an ugly 1.0 HR/9. But sample sizes involving just 26.2 innings can be problematic. He's signed through next year and here's a fun fact...his only experience in the postseason came as a Brave. He retired four-of-six Giants he faced in 2010 during three scoreless outings.
1B Jeff Baker - There are currently two players in the majors who were born in Germany. Edwin Jackson of the Cubs and Baker of the Marlins. He appeared in 14 games with the Braves after they picked him up in 2012 and had just two singles in 19 AB. Oddly, the Braves sent the Tigers Greg Ross to complete the deal. Ross, a pitcher, was cut at the end of spring training in 2013 without appearing in a game for the Tigers organization. He then resigned with the Braves and has spent the last year-and-a-half in Mississippi.
3B Martin Prado - Go ahead, name a Brave who was more beloved than Prado over the last five years. Freddie Freeman? Maybe. Craig Kimbrel? Possibly. But Prado was impossible not to like. A non-prospect who was supposed to have a best-case future of being a utility guy, Prado pushed Kelly Johnson to the side in 2009 and was an All-Star the following year. A trade moved him to left and over two years, he remained a pretty solid option out there. However, the Braves moved him to the D'Backs for Justin Upton as Prado wanted more money than the Braves were willing to give up. He has also played for the Yankees and now Marlins since leaving Atlanta and his numbers just don't look nearly as impressive as they did as a Brave (.280/.324/.407). He's on the DL with a shoulder injury.
New York Mets
P Buddy Carlyle - Last year, when Carlyle signed a minor league deal with the Mets, I looked at what Carlyle did for the Braves. In a certain way, Carlyle mimics Prado in that it's impossible not to like him, though that didn't make Carlyle beloved by any means. Carlyle was drafted in 1996 and despite making it to the majors in 1999, he has just one year where he has thrown 100 major league innings in a single season - 2007 with the Braves. If anyone bitches about how awful the Braves pitching has been at times this year, I point them to 2007. When Carlyle started 20 games, Chuck James started 30, Kyle Davies started 17, Jo-Jo Reyes started 10, and Lance Cormier started 9. I would mention Mark Redman's five starts, but I would have flashbacks that would send me under the desk in a fetal position.
P Sean Gilmartin - I remember someone getting upset we traded this guy for Ryan Doumit. Now, Doumit was an utter failure, but Gilmartin wasn't much of a prospect. Unfortunately, he's been pretty decent this year as a Rule 5 LOOGY for the Mets. I'd like to suggest it's all smoke and mirrors, but it's not. He might not ever be a major league starter, but he's got a shot to be good in limited bullpen action.
2B Brooks Conrad (AAA) - With Conrad, you get two memorable things that show the highs and lows of being a professional athlete. There were his two pinch-hit Grand Slams in 2010, including the one that made the Braves walk-off winners on May 20 against the Reds - still one of the coolest moments since The Streak ended. But...that kind of gets overshadowed by one of the worst postseason efforts in history. Not only did he managed just a single in 12 AB, but he was a nightmare in the field. His total four errors for the series was bad...especially when three came in Game 3, including on a grounder right between his legs that led to the go-ahead run in a 3-2 loss. Oh, his second led a to a run, too (though Jason Heyward should have called him off). 2010 should have been the best season of his career. Anyway, he has hit .205 for Las Vegas this year.
Philadelphia Phillies
P Aaron Harang - Harang has seen his strikeout rate fall a tick and his homer rate go up due to the park he plays in, but he's continued to show that he's not finished. Sadly, the Phillies are and have lost 11 of his 17 starts, which saddles Harang with the Senior Circuit's most losses. He hit the DL last week with plantar fasciitis.
OF Jeff Francoeur - After a year mostly spent in the minors, the now 31 year-old Francoeur is back in the majors and receiving significant playing time for the Phillies. He's hit about how you'd expect him to. He also got a chance to pitch this year and threw two innings against the Orioles on June 16, giving up two runs, walking three, and striking out Nolan Reimold, the first batter he ever faced.
Washington Nationals
P David Carpenter - His first name is actually Darrell so we have the REAL David Carpenter now. OldCarp flamed out in the Bronx and was shown the door after just 22 games. So, again, they gave up Manny Banuelos for Chasen Shreve and 22 games of OldCarp. Thanks! The Nats sent a minor leaguer to the Yankees for OldCarp and in his first eight games, he looked kinda better. He's currently on the paternity list so congrats!
2B Dan Uggla - At this point, Uggla's value is kind of the same as Jonny Gomes. You can use him against a starting lefthander and left-handed relievers, but you have to hide him against righties. Uggla has actually struck out as a lower rate than each of the last three years so maybe he's seeing the ball a bit better.
OF Reed Johnson - Another guy limited to only platoon advantage at-bats, Johnson spent a year-and-a-half in Atlanta and was pretty decent, though he posted better numbers as a Cub. He spent last year with the Marlins and now continues his NL East journey with the Nats. Well, except that he has been on the shelf since the 13-12 comeback win over the Braves that sent many a Braves fan in a downward spiral. The "big pop" in his foot required surgery and he is not expected back before rosters expand in September.
Recently profiled in Once a Brave, Always a Brave...
AL West
AL Central
AL East
Miami Marlins
P Mike Dunn - He only spent 25 games with the Braves back in 2010 and walked way too many batters, but Dunn has been a solid reliever for Florida/Miami since arriving in the trade we try not to talk about involving a current National. He's been a little iffy this year for the Marlins, posting a 1.43 WHIP to go with an ugly 1.0 HR/9. But sample sizes involving just 26.2 innings can be problematic. He's signed through next year and here's a fun fact...his only experience in the postseason came as a Brave. He retired four-of-six Giants he faced in 2010 during three scoreless outings.
1B Jeff Baker - There are currently two players in the majors who were born in Germany. Edwin Jackson of the Cubs and Baker of the Marlins. He appeared in 14 games with the Braves after they picked him up in 2012 and had just two singles in 19 AB. Oddly, the Braves sent the Tigers Greg Ross to complete the deal. Ross, a pitcher, was cut at the end of spring training in 2013 without appearing in a game for the Tigers organization. He then resigned with the Braves and has spent the last year-and-a-half in Mississippi.
3B Martin Prado - Go ahead, name a Brave who was more beloved than Prado over the last five years. Freddie Freeman? Maybe. Craig Kimbrel? Possibly. But Prado was impossible not to like. A non-prospect who was supposed to have a best-case future of being a utility guy, Prado pushed Kelly Johnson to the side in 2009 and was an All-Star the following year. A trade moved him to left and over two years, he remained a pretty solid option out there. However, the Braves moved him to the D'Backs for Justin Upton as Prado wanted more money than the Braves were willing to give up. He has also played for the Yankees and now Marlins since leaving Atlanta and his numbers just don't look nearly as impressive as they did as a Brave (.280/.324/.407). He's on the DL with a shoulder injury.
New York Mets
P Buddy Carlyle - Last year, when Carlyle signed a minor league deal with the Mets, I looked at what Carlyle did for the Braves. In a certain way, Carlyle mimics Prado in that it's impossible not to like him, though that didn't make Carlyle beloved by any means. Carlyle was drafted in 1996 and despite making it to the majors in 1999, he has just one year where he has thrown 100 major league innings in a single season - 2007 with the Braves. If anyone bitches about how awful the Braves pitching has been at times this year, I point them to 2007. When Carlyle started 20 games, Chuck James started 30, Kyle Davies started 17, Jo-Jo Reyes started 10, and Lance Cormier started 9. I would mention Mark Redman's five starts, but I would have flashbacks that would send me under the desk in a fetal position.
P Sean Gilmartin - I remember someone getting upset we traded this guy for Ryan Doumit. Now, Doumit was an utter failure, but Gilmartin wasn't much of a prospect. Unfortunately, he's been pretty decent this year as a Rule 5 LOOGY for the Mets. I'd like to suggest it's all smoke and mirrors, but it's not. He might not ever be a major league starter, but he's got a shot to be good in limited bullpen action.
2B Brooks Conrad (AAA) - With Conrad, you get two memorable things that show the highs and lows of being a professional athlete. There were his two pinch-hit Grand Slams in 2010, including the one that made the Braves walk-off winners on May 20 against the Reds - still one of the coolest moments since The Streak ended. But...that kind of gets overshadowed by one of the worst postseason efforts in history. Not only did he managed just a single in 12 AB, but he was a nightmare in the field. His total four errors for the series was bad...especially when three came in Game 3, including on a grounder right between his legs that led to the go-ahead run in a 3-2 loss. Oh, his second led a to a run, too (though Jason Heyward should have called him off). 2010 should have been the best season of his career. Anyway, he has hit .205 for Las Vegas this year.
Philadelphia Phillies
P Aaron Harang - Harang has seen his strikeout rate fall a tick and his homer rate go up due to the park he plays in, but he's continued to show that he's not finished. Sadly, the Phillies are and have lost 11 of his 17 starts, which saddles Harang with the Senior Circuit's most losses. He hit the DL last week with plantar fasciitis.
OF Jeff Francoeur - After a year mostly spent in the minors, the now 31 year-old Francoeur is back in the majors and receiving significant playing time for the Phillies. He's hit about how you'd expect him to. He also got a chance to pitch this year and threw two innings against the Orioles on June 16, giving up two runs, walking three, and striking out Nolan Reimold, the first batter he ever faced.
Washington Nationals
P David Carpenter - His first name is actually Darrell so we have the REAL David Carpenter now. OldCarp flamed out in the Bronx and was shown the door after just 22 games. So, again, they gave up Manny Banuelos for Chasen Shreve and 22 games of OldCarp. Thanks! The Nats sent a minor leaguer to the Yankees for OldCarp and in his first eight games, he looked kinda better. He's currently on the paternity list so congrats!
2B Dan Uggla - At this point, Uggla's value is kind of the same as Jonny Gomes. You can use him against a starting lefthander and left-handed relievers, but you have to hide him against righties. Uggla has actually struck out as a lower rate than each of the last three years so maybe he's seeing the ball a bit better.
OF Reed Johnson - Another guy limited to only platoon advantage at-bats, Johnson spent a year-and-a-half in Atlanta and was pretty decent, though he posted better numbers as a Cub. He spent last year with the Marlins and now continues his NL East journey with the Nats. Well, except that he has been on the shelf since the 13-12 comeback win over the Braves that sent many a Braves fan in a downward spiral. The "big pop" in his foot required surgery and he is not expected back before rosters expand in September.
Recently profiled in Once a Brave, Always a Brave...
AL West
AL Central
AL East
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Once a Brave, Always a Brave: Opening Day Rosters
This series keeps tabs on how former Braves are doing in the league. Typically, I will focus on one division or even one team in isolated situations, but there's not a lot to report right now so I will focus more on which former Braves made opening day rosters in other cities. If I counted correctly, there are 62 former Braves (or Braves farmhands) who either were on the opening day roster or the DL. Only four teams are currently without a Brave, which is probably why they will fail in 2015.
Arizona
Nick Ahmed
Randall Delgado
Gerald Laird
Baltimore
None surprisingly enough
Boston
Anthony Varvaro
Chicago Cubs
David Ross
Tommy La Stella
Chicago White Sox
Emilio Bonifacio
Melky Cabrera
Tyler Flowers
Adam LaRoche
Cincinnati
J.J. Hoover
Jason Marquis (seriously?)
Brayan Pena
Cleveland
Michael Bourn
Colorado
David Hale (DL)
Boone Logan
Detroit
None
Houston
Evan Gattis
Brett Oberholtzer (DL, minor league Brave)
Kansas City
Omar Infante
Kris Medlen (DL)
Los Angeles Angels in the Outfield
Cory Rasmus (DL)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Brandon Beachy (DL)
Miami
Jeff Baker (do you remember that?)
Mike Dunn
Martin Prado
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Minnesota
Blaine Boyer
J.R. Graham (sob)
Ervin Santana (suspended)
Jordan Schafer
Milwaukee
None
New York Mets
Buddy Carlyle
Sean Gilmartin (why have you forsaken us, Ryan Doumit?)
New York Yankees
David Carpenter
Garrett Jones (he played in the minors for the Braves)
Brian McCann
Chasen Shreve
Mark Teixeira
Pittsburgh
Jeff Locke
Charlie Morton (DL)
Philadelphia
Jeff Francoeur
Aaron Harang
Oakland
Jesse Chavez
Eric O'Flaherty
San Diego
Craig Kimbrel
Justin Upton
Melvin Upton Jr.(DL)
San Francisco
Erik Cordier (DL)
Gregor Blanco
Tim Hudson
Seattle
Jesus Sucre
St. Louis
Matt Belisle
Jason Heyward (fresh wounds)
Adam Wainwright (old wounds)
Jordan Walden
Tampa Bay
None
Texas
Elvis Andrus
Neftali Feliz
Matt Harrison (DL...shocker)
Toronto
Todd Redmond (four days with the Braves, never played)
Washington
Yunel Escobar
Nate McLouth (DL)
Reed Johnson
Dan Uggla (excusing Reed, this list of players should make us root against the Nats all the more)
Arizona
Nick Ahmed
Randall Delgado
Gerald Laird
Baltimore
None surprisingly enough
Boston
Anthony Varvaro
Chicago Cubs
David Ross
Tommy La Stella
Chicago White Sox
Emilio Bonifacio
Melky Cabrera
Tyler Flowers
Adam LaRoche
Cincinnati
J.J. Hoover
Jason Marquis (seriously?)
Brayan Pena
Cleveland
Michael Bourn
Colorado
David Hale (DL)
Boone Logan
Detroit
None
Houston
Evan Gattis
Brett Oberholtzer (DL, minor league Brave)
Kansas City
Omar Infante
Kris Medlen (DL)
Los Angeles Angels in the Outfield
Cory Rasmus (DL)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Brandon Beachy (DL)
Miami
Jeff Baker (do you remember that?)
Mike Dunn
Martin Prado
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Minnesota
Blaine Boyer
J.R. Graham (sob)
Ervin Santana (suspended)
Jordan Schafer
Milwaukee
None
New York Mets
Buddy Carlyle
Sean Gilmartin (why have you forsaken us, Ryan Doumit?)
New York Yankees
David Carpenter
Garrett Jones (he played in the minors for the Braves)
Brian McCann
Chasen Shreve
Mark Teixeira
Pittsburgh
Jeff Locke
Charlie Morton (DL)
Philadelphia
Jeff Francoeur
Aaron Harang
Oakland
Jesse Chavez
Eric O'Flaherty
San Diego
Craig Kimbrel
Justin Upton
Melvin Upton Jr.(DL)
San Francisco
Erik Cordier (DL)
Gregor Blanco
Tim Hudson
Seattle
Jesus Sucre
St. Louis
Matt Belisle
Jason Heyward (fresh wounds)
Adam Wainwright (old wounds)
Jordan Walden
Tampa Bay
None
Texas
Elvis Andrus
Neftali Feliz
Matt Harrison (DL...shocker)
Toronto
Todd Redmond (four days with the Braves, never played)
Washington
Yunel Escobar
Nate McLouth (DL)
Reed Johnson
Dan Uggla (excusing Reed, this list of players should make us root against the Nats all the more)
Monday, February 16, 2015
Spring Training Battle: 5th Starter (About.com)
The Braves uber-busy offseason has left the fifth starter position still unresolved, but with a wide-open competition for the spot. The Braves could go with a veteran like Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Stults to simply provide stability at the bottom of the rotation while the young hurlers develop in the minors. Or maybe they should go with one of the young guys like Manny Banuelos or Michael Foltynewicz and see what they have. And don't sleep on Cody Martin, who the Braves left unprotected in the Rule 5. He's never found a level he couldn't conquer to this point. Or maybe a trade or late spring signing like Aaron Harang will provide come clarity. One thing's for sure. As pitchers begin to report, there is a big open slot for someone to claim. Who will it be?
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Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Spring Training Preview: Starting Pitching
Though the season is 83 days away and the hyper-active Braves could possibly deal and/or sign a starter, which seems likely, I have to start the spring training previews some time so here we go.
While they lacked the star power of past rotations, the Braves had a nice and productive starting staff in 2014. When compared to the rest of the league, the Braves had the fifth best ERA, the sixth lowest FIP, and were tenth in xFIP. They even provided innings that took away some of the need of the bullpen by throwing the second most in baseball. They did it with eight pitchers and endured a massively disappointing season from one starter and an injury-shortened year from a guy who looked like he was coming into his own. Oh, and two other starters saw their 2014 end before it even started.
What will 2015 possibly bring? Let's dive in.
Before we start, let's say goodbye to...Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, Aaron Harang, Kris Medlen, Ervin Santana...You read that right. The Braves lost an entire starting rotation this offseason, though they apparently still have some interest in the one who has yet to find work - Beachy, who along with Medlen, missed the season after yet another Tommy John surgery. Beachy wasn't counted on quite as much as Meds was for 2014, but both were loses for a rotation that was missing two starters even before the season started. That left Frank Wren to cobble together a competent rotation and to his credit, he did just that with Santana and Harang. The former posted a 2.8 fWAR over 196 innings with 8.2 K/9 and a solid 3.39 FIP. It took a bit of luck to get him to Atlanta. The market had to go to crap on him last offseason and the price tag on a one-year deal had to become prohibitive for other clubs, but he was ultimately a Godsend. It wasn't too much of a surprise, though, as Santana had been recently successful in the majors. Harang, on the other hand, was an ultimate find for Wren and his team. Cast off by the Indians before the season, the Braves signed him with no high expectations that he would even pitch more than a month for them. They had guys on the mend and simply needed a dependable placeholder for several weeks to open the year. What they got was 204.1 innings, a 2.5 fWAR, and one of the better under-reported stories in baseball. Recently, the Phillies signed Harang to a one-year deal, which was a bit surprising considering his success last year. Finally, Floyd was a nice bargain find for Wren and it looked like a masterstroke before Floyd's elbow sought to escape his body. He was showing glimpses of the good Floyd from his White Sox years. But...oh well.
What's left? Who's new? Is all hope lost?
At the top of the rotation is Julio Teheran and that's a damn good thing considering he's signed long term _and_ turns just 24 in two weeks. Teheran is a study on why you trust the process sometimes over the results. A lot of people grew skeptical of him after a 2012 season with Gwinnett where the K's fell, the homers sky-rocketed, and his FIP neared 6.00. But that's why prospects deserve time to tinker and try to better their overall game. It's not really known if that lost year truly helped Teheran, but after a 2.5 fWAR in 2013 and 3.2 fWAR last year, I think it's safe to say he's not any worse for wear. Teheran continues to try to improve a fourth pitch, a run-of-the-mill change-up and it appears if he does that this year to go along with his steady low-90's heat and plus breaking pitches, he'll take another step forward. Sure, people will write that the Braves lack a real ace. But we can't help that people are idiots.
Behind Teheran is Alex Wood...at least, in my book. At a certain point, we have to stop worrying and learn to love the delivery. Sure, it's quirky, but Wood did throw 171.2 ING last season and when you add his minor league seasons, 139.2 ING the previous year. The Braves can still try to limit innings when they can, but we are talking about a guy who has a 2.84 ERA in 212.1 ING as a starter over his career with 205 K's along with a 1.19 WHIP, 3.18 FIP, and 3.32 xFIP. Seriously, he's good and yes, the delivery still boggles the mind, but it doesn't mean he won't be very successful in the majors.
Shelby Miller takes up the third spot and splits the lefties in the staff. After a rather productive rookie season in 2013, Miller was the opposite of Teheran in 2014 as he simply got worse across the board. On the plus side, a late season switch toward throwing a high fastball more effectively to set up his curveball led to positive results. He walked two less per nine innings in the second half, saw a minor increase in K%, and cut his WHIP by 50 points. It still wasn't great as his 4.20 FIP suggests, but it was getting him moving in the right direction. Miller is limited in that he basically has just two pitches so keeping the batters from making a lot of contact is paramount to his success. He's not going to live on putting the ball in play considering deception's not his strong suit. Basically, he needs to change the batter's eye level to set up his plus-plus curve and get swinging strikes. He only got 7% of them last year. For him to get back to 2013 Miller, that number needs a good increase.
In the four spot is Mike Minor, who is a year removed from looking like a possible front-of-the-rotation fixture. After a 3.37 FIP and 3.5 fWAR campaign during the 2013 season, Minor struggled through injuries and just bad play, posting a 4.39 FIP. Unlike Miller, we can't look at anything in particular and say "hey, he was turning it around" except that maybe he was unlucky to a degree (3.90 xFIP wasn't that much worse than 3.64 the previous year). One thing that really stands out is hitters were making an exorbiant amount of contact on pitches outside the zone. In 2013, it was 63.6%, about three ticks below the league average. In 2014, it was about nine points higher. In addition, they connected on 91% of all swings in the strikezone, an increase of four percent. This screams to me that Minor's stuff was either mediocre, predictable, or both. If you watched him last year, he saw a return of 2011-12 Minor...the guy who nibbles and hopes for the best, not the 2013 guy who pitched with confidence. It's a make-of-break season for Minor. He can't survive in baseball getting just 7% of swinging strikes. Hitters will brutalize him.
The fifth spot...well, that's where things get more interesting than just discussing the question marks with Miller and Minor. By not re-signing Harang and with no veteran replacement in house, the Braves are left with a group that currently lacks a real leader. The way I'll preview each is in how I rank them right now, which might not match the Braves. So, take this with a massive grain of salt.
Our first contender is Manny Banuelos, who the Braves acquired on New Year's Day for a pair of relievers. Banuelos is only a couple of seasons removed from being a pretty good prospect. In 2011, he struck out over 8 K/9 while moving from AA to AAA, but his next season was cut short by Tommy John and it was a slow recovery process to get him back into the picture. He threw less than a hundred innings last year as the Yankees took a conservative approach with him and while the velocity was starting to return for the left-hander. As we can probably expect, his control, especially with his fastball, was suspect and he gave up an unusually high amount of homers, which I would guess was from elevating his fastball too often. Atlanta probably doesn't want him to open the season in the majors if they can help it, but right now, I'd label him their best option. For what it's worth, Banuelos has only one option left so sending him to the minors would use that up, but for a team that is unlikely to compete the next couple of seasons, they can certainly deal with that.
If the Braves don't go the veteran route and want to handle ManBan with kid gloves, David Hale would appear as the most likely option to handle the fifth spot. Hale spent all of 2014 in the majors, logging 87.1 ING and starting six of his 45 appearances. He posted a 3.30 ERA and 56% groundball rate. And I hate him. Actually, I don't. He's probably a great guy who is simply trying to make the most out of a limited skill set. I hate that many believe he's a capable major leaguer based on that 3.30 ERA despite a FIP that was a run higher. There is some evidence, though in a pretty short sample size, that Hale would make a better starter than a reliever (6 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.65 FIP) but I would caution not to put too much value into that. Most of those starts came in the first month of the season before batters readjusted for him. The real thing to be concerned with is that Hale lacks a plus pitch.
Though he was unprotected in the Rule 5, Cody Martin would appear to have a good shot to get into the discussion for the fifth spot. Martin appears to have the minor league vet label even though he's only been around four years. He's put up fairly impressive stats at each stop, though he's never cracked a Top 20 prospects list. He's probably a tick worse than Hale and would struggle to hold down a job in the majors. But...I guess we'll never know if he never gets a shot.
James Russell started the season's final game and was a former starter. With his reverse splits from last year and Mark Bowman reporting that he might be stretched out early in spring training, plus the signing of Josh Outman, why not Russell? If he fails, he's a proven major league reliever and can fall back in that role. If it's between Hale and Russell, I'd give the latter the chance. If he surprises for a few months, you could easily turn him into a prospect at the deadline.
It's early, but why not Tyrell Jenkins? Yes, he only pitched, with the AFL included, 98.1 innings last year and yes, he has yet to appear in AA. But if he has a tremendous spring and impresses everyone while mowing down hitters...he'll still head to the minors. Who are we kidding? This is a rebuilding process and starting Jenkins' clock early doesn't help anyone. Same goes for Jason Hursh, the 2013 first rounder who logged 148.1 ING at AA and didn't really impress anyone. Why start his clock early when you need to find out what you have? Especially when we already have Chien-Ming Wang, who signed a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. That's an option, I guess. Funny story. Last year, at AAA, Wang struck out 73 batters. He walked 57. That rate shouldn't exist in 2014, but there it was. While we're at it, why not mention Daniel Winkler? Because he'll miss most of the season and this is a spring training preview, that's why.
The 2015 rotation could easily surprise some people and could easily be a dumpster fire. Of course, I could end nearly every preview article like that. There is promise and the youth is exciting, but it's easy to think the Braves rotation will be worse next year than it was in 2014. And it could be better. But probably worse.
While they lacked the star power of past rotations, the Braves had a nice and productive starting staff in 2014. When compared to the rest of the league, the Braves had the fifth best ERA, the sixth lowest FIP, and were tenth in xFIP. They even provided innings that took away some of the need of the bullpen by throwing the second most in baseball. They did it with eight pitchers and endured a massively disappointing season from one starter and an injury-shortened year from a guy who looked like he was coming into his own. Oh, and two other starters saw their 2014 end before it even started.
What will 2015 possibly bring? Let's dive in.
Before we start, let's say goodbye to...Brandon Beachy, Gavin Floyd, Aaron Harang, Kris Medlen, Ervin Santana...You read that right. The Braves lost an entire starting rotation this offseason, though they apparently still have some interest in the one who has yet to find work - Beachy, who along with Medlen, missed the season after yet another Tommy John surgery. Beachy wasn't counted on quite as much as Meds was for 2014, but both were loses for a rotation that was missing two starters even before the season started. That left Frank Wren to cobble together a competent rotation and to his credit, he did just that with Santana and Harang. The former posted a 2.8 fWAR over 196 innings with 8.2 K/9 and a solid 3.39 FIP. It took a bit of luck to get him to Atlanta. The market had to go to crap on him last offseason and the price tag on a one-year deal had to become prohibitive for other clubs, but he was ultimately a Godsend. It wasn't too much of a surprise, though, as Santana had been recently successful in the majors. Harang, on the other hand, was an ultimate find for Wren and his team. Cast off by the Indians before the season, the Braves signed him with no high expectations that he would even pitch more than a month for them. They had guys on the mend and simply needed a dependable placeholder for several weeks to open the year. What they got was 204.1 innings, a 2.5 fWAR, and one of the better under-reported stories in baseball. Recently, the Phillies signed Harang to a one-year deal, which was a bit surprising considering his success last year. Finally, Floyd was a nice bargain find for Wren and it looked like a masterstroke before Floyd's elbow sought to escape his body. He was showing glimpses of the good Floyd from his White Sox years. But...oh well.
What's left? Who's new? Is all hope lost?
At the top of the rotation is Julio Teheran and that's a damn good thing considering he's signed long term _and_ turns just 24 in two weeks. Teheran is a study on why you trust the process sometimes over the results. A lot of people grew skeptical of him after a 2012 season with Gwinnett where the K's fell, the homers sky-rocketed, and his FIP neared 6.00. But that's why prospects deserve time to tinker and try to better their overall game. It's not really known if that lost year truly helped Teheran, but after a 2.5 fWAR in 2013 and 3.2 fWAR last year, I think it's safe to say he's not any worse for wear. Teheran continues to try to improve a fourth pitch, a run-of-the-mill change-up and it appears if he does that this year to go along with his steady low-90's heat and plus breaking pitches, he'll take another step forward. Sure, people will write that the Braves lack a real ace. But we can't help that people are idiots.
Behind Teheran is Alex Wood...at least, in my book. At a certain point, we have to stop worrying and learn to love the delivery. Sure, it's quirky, but Wood did throw 171.2 ING last season and when you add his minor league seasons, 139.2 ING the previous year. The Braves can still try to limit innings when they can, but we are talking about a guy who has a 2.84 ERA in 212.1 ING as a starter over his career with 205 K's along with a 1.19 WHIP, 3.18 FIP, and 3.32 xFIP. Seriously, he's good and yes, the delivery still boggles the mind, but it doesn't mean he won't be very successful in the majors.
Shelby Miller takes up the third spot and splits the lefties in the staff. After a rather productive rookie season in 2013, Miller was the opposite of Teheran in 2014 as he simply got worse across the board. On the plus side, a late season switch toward throwing a high fastball more effectively to set up his curveball led to positive results. He walked two less per nine innings in the second half, saw a minor increase in K%, and cut his WHIP by 50 points. It still wasn't great as his 4.20 FIP suggests, but it was getting him moving in the right direction. Miller is limited in that he basically has just two pitches so keeping the batters from making a lot of contact is paramount to his success. He's not going to live on putting the ball in play considering deception's not his strong suit. Basically, he needs to change the batter's eye level to set up his plus-plus curve and get swinging strikes. He only got 7% of them last year. For him to get back to 2013 Miller, that number needs a good increase.
In the four spot is Mike Minor, who is a year removed from looking like a possible front-of-the-rotation fixture. After a 3.37 FIP and 3.5 fWAR campaign during the 2013 season, Minor struggled through injuries and just bad play, posting a 4.39 FIP. Unlike Miller, we can't look at anything in particular and say "hey, he was turning it around" except that maybe he was unlucky to a degree (3.90 xFIP wasn't that much worse than 3.64 the previous year). One thing that really stands out is hitters were making an exorbiant amount of contact on pitches outside the zone. In 2013, it was 63.6%, about three ticks below the league average. In 2014, it was about nine points higher. In addition, they connected on 91% of all swings in the strikezone, an increase of four percent. This screams to me that Minor's stuff was either mediocre, predictable, or both. If you watched him last year, he saw a return of 2011-12 Minor...the guy who nibbles and hopes for the best, not the 2013 guy who pitched with confidence. It's a make-of-break season for Minor. He can't survive in baseball getting just 7% of swinging strikes. Hitters will brutalize him.
The fifth spot...well, that's where things get more interesting than just discussing the question marks with Miller and Minor. By not re-signing Harang and with no veteran replacement in house, the Braves are left with a group that currently lacks a real leader. The way I'll preview each is in how I rank them right now, which might not match the Braves. So, take this with a massive grain of salt.
Our first contender is Manny Banuelos, who the Braves acquired on New Year's Day for a pair of relievers. Banuelos is only a couple of seasons removed from being a pretty good prospect. In 2011, he struck out over 8 K/9 while moving from AA to AAA, but his next season was cut short by Tommy John and it was a slow recovery process to get him back into the picture. He threw less than a hundred innings last year as the Yankees took a conservative approach with him and while the velocity was starting to return for the left-hander. As we can probably expect, his control, especially with his fastball, was suspect and he gave up an unusually high amount of homers, which I would guess was from elevating his fastball too often. Atlanta probably doesn't want him to open the season in the majors if they can help it, but right now, I'd label him their best option. For what it's worth, Banuelos has only one option left so sending him to the minors would use that up, but for a team that is unlikely to compete the next couple of seasons, they can certainly deal with that.
If the Braves don't go the veteran route and want to handle ManBan with kid gloves, David Hale would appear as the most likely option to handle the fifth spot. Hale spent all of 2014 in the majors, logging 87.1 ING and starting six of his 45 appearances. He posted a 3.30 ERA and 56% groundball rate. And I hate him. Actually, I don't. He's probably a great guy who is simply trying to make the most out of a limited skill set. I hate that many believe he's a capable major leaguer based on that 3.30 ERA despite a FIP that was a run higher. There is some evidence, though in a pretty short sample size, that Hale would make a better starter than a reliever (6 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.65 FIP) but I would caution not to put too much value into that. Most of those starts came in the first month of the season before batters readjusted for him. The real thing to be concerned with is that Hale lacks a plus pitch.
Though he was unprotected in the Rule 5, Cody Martin would appear to have a good shot to get into the discussion for the fifth spot. Martin appears to have the minor league vet label even though he's only been around four years. He's put up fairly impressive stats at each stop, though he's never cracked a Top 20 prospects list. He's probably a tick worse than Hale and would struggle to hold down a job in the majors. But...I guess we'll never know if he never gets a shot.
James Russell started the season's final game and was a former starter. With his reverse splits from last year and Mark Bowman reporting that he might be stretched out early in spring training, plus the signing of Josh Outman, why not Russell? If he fails, he's a proven major league reliever and can fall back in that role. If it's between Hale and Russell, I'd give the latter the chance. If he surprises for a few months, you could easily turn him into a prospect at the deadline.
It's early, but why not Tyrell Jenkins? Yes, he only pitched, with the AFL included, 98.1 innings last year and yes, he has yet to appear in AA. But if he has a tremendous spring and impresses everyone while mowing down hitters...he'll still head to the minors. Who are we kidding? This is a rebuilding process and starting Jenkins' clock early doesn't help anyone. Same goes for Jason Hursh, the 2013 first rounder who logged 148.1 ING at AA and didn't really impress anyone. Why start his clock early when you need to find out what you have? Especially when we already have Chien-Ming Wang, who signed a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. That's an option, I guess. Funny story. Last year, at AAA, Wang struck out 73 batters. He walked 57. That rate shouldn't exist in 2014, but there it was. While we're at it, why not mention Daniel Winkler? Because he'll miss most of the season and this is a spring training preview, that's why.
The 2015 rotation could easily surprise some people and could easily be a dumpster fire. Of course, I could end nearly every preview article like that. There is promise and the youth is exciting, but it's easy to think the Braves rotation will be worse next year than it was in 2014. And it could be better. But probably worse.
Monday, January 5, 2015
See ya, Aaron!
It's difficult to write this, but the Braves should have brought back Aaron Harang.
Those words shouldn't go together and by no means do I consider Harang the missing piece to anything, but for a team rebuilding for the future, Harang would have been a great fit. Wait, what? A pitcher that will turn 37 in May is a fit for the future? I'll get to that.
In case you haven't heard, the Phillies signed Harang to a 1 year, $5M contract Monday. The Phillies need starting pitching desperately and adding a veteran who has been fairly durable was a good move for them, though I can't say the same for Harang. He should be building on his 2014 success with the Braves, not potentially minimizing it by taking his flyball pitching profile to a park that historically gives up as many homers as any in the National League. That's not to say Philly is a huge hitter's park. We like to think it is because it plays small and gives up a lot of cheapies, but it's only minimally helpful for the hitter due to the massive alleys. Still, a guy who has historically carried a HR/9 over 1? Ask Joe Blanton how that works out.
Harang would have been better off in a park that doesn't hurt flyball pitchers. Like Turner Field. The Braves would have been better off, too. Look at the rotation Atlanta currently has. It's young and full of questions. Harang wouldn't have been a world beater, but he would have held down the fifth spot without putting undue pressure on Manny Banuelos.
Plus, on a similar one-year pact, the Braves might have been able to turn Harang into a player they can keep long term. If Harang was reasonably successful in the first half, he would have upped his trade value. With an inexpensive contract with no added years, contending teams in need of rotation depth would have been calling like I call the radio station when they are giving away tickets to go see Green Day. Now, granted, Harang won't bring in a top 100 guy, but a borderline C+/B- prospect? Seems realistic.
Nothing ventured, nothing lost, I suppose. And it's not like Harang possesses a particular set of skills that the Braves can't find in a different veteran starter, which they are rumored to have interest in obtaining. Just seemed like a good fit for a reunion. On the plus side, more Harang/Bartolo Colon matchups equals ratings so at least there's that to look forward to.
Those words shouldn't go together and by no means do I consider Harang the missing piece to anything, but for a team rebuilding for the future, Harang would have been a great fit. Wait, what? A pitcher that will turn 37 in May is a fit for the future? I'll get to that.
In case you haven't heard, the Phillies signed Harang to a 1 year, $5M contract Monday. The Phillies need starting pitching desperately and adding a veteran who has been fairly durable was a good move for them, though I can't say the same for Harang. He should be building on his 2014 success with the Braves, not potentially minimizing it by taking his flyball pitching profile to a park that historically gives up as many homers as any in the National League. That's not to say Philly is a huge hitter's park. We like to think it is because it plays small and gives up a lot of cheapies, but it's only minimally helpful for the hitter due to the massive alleys. Still, a guy who has historically carried a HR/9 over 1? Ask Joe Blanton how that works out.
Harang would have been better off in a park that doesn't hurt flyball pitchers. Like Turner Field. The Braves would have been better off, too. Look at the rotation Atlanta currently has. It's young and full of questions. Harang wouldn't have been a world beater, but he would have held down the fifth spot without putting undue pressure on Manny Banuelos.
Plus, on a similar one-year pact, the Braves might have been able to turn Harang into a player they can keep long term. If Harang was reasonably successful in the first half, he would have upped his trade value. With an inexpensive contract with no added years, contending teams in need of rotation depth would have been calling like I call the radio station when they are giving away tickets to go see Green Day. Now, granted, Harang won't bring in a top 100 guy, but a borderline C+/B- prospect? Seems realistic.
Nothing ventured, nothing lost, I suppose. And it's not like Harang possesses a particular set of skills that the Braves can't find in a different veteran starter, which they are rumored to have interest in obtaining. Just seemed like a good fit for a reunion. On the plus side, more Harang/Bartolo Colon matchups equals ratings so at least there's that to look forward to.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Braves Sign Jason Grilli...Because Reasons
It's been only a few months since John Hart assumed the job as "dude in charge" for the Atlanta Braves and the moves so far have been fairly uneven. Trade Jason Heyward, sign Nick Markakis. Ship out Tommy La Stella, add Alberto Callaspo. Send Justin Upton packing, ink...Jason Grilli? What's next? Trading Mike Minor to bring back Aaron Harang?
Grilli is the latest addition to the remade Atlanta Braves, signed to a $8M contract over the next two seasons with an option for 2017...the amazing wonderful year where it will all make sense. This is probably too much snark for Christmas Eve, but Hart made me do it.
The former Pirates closer joins a bullpen that already included the dominating Craig Kimbrel, arbitration-eligible arms like David Carpenter and James Russell, newly minted Jim Johnson, reacquired Arodys Vizcaino, holdover Luis Avilan, and a list of young guys looking to establish themselves: Shae Simmons, Chasen Shreve, Ian Thomas, and Juan Jaime. Oh, and David Hale.
That would appear to signal a pending trade including at least one reliever to clear things up a little. But even with that trade, this signing is just odd. After all, if a trade took away one of the known guys (Kimbrel, Carp, Russell, Johnson), you would still have a lot of names working their way into the picture. Course, you could have it be even more complicated if you still had Anthony Varvaro, but luckily, he's a Red Sox now. Dodged that bullet (?).
And why the Braves had to sink $8M and two years into Grilli is also a conundrum. Coincidentally, the Cardinals just signed our old buddy Jordan Walden to a 2 year, $6.6M, but I'll give you that the comparison between the two is moot because Walden was still arbitration-eligible. As far as multiple year contracts go, Grilli's is the third cheapest contract given out on the free agent market so far. But that's also the rub. Guys like Grilli typically don't get, coming off an unimpressive 2014, a contract with multiple seasons guaranteed.
With that said, who is Grilli? Well, you can always buy his book and figure it out. Or if you want to save yourself the brain aneurysm, you can read the tremendous review of said book from Bucs Dugout. I can't stress this enough. Do the latter.
Oh, wait, what kind of pitcher is he? A former first round pick, Grilli has struggled to stay healthy and even when he was, he hasn't been all that effective until landing in Pittsburgh. His success culminated into a dominant 2013 where he posted a 1.97 FIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5. That is pretty damn good. That should get you excited. A two-pitch pitcher, Grilli relies on a well-spotted 92-95 mph fastball to set up his out pitch, a slider that he shelved his big breaking curveball around 2007.
Why did he go from All-Star in 2013 to traded away for pennies the next year? He wasn't controlling the count. In the two years preceding 2014, 14.4% of his strikes were swinging strikes. Obviously, that is an example of sick stuff and good counts. Only eight relievers were better, including Kimbrel. This led to the 12th best O-Swing%, or the percentage of total swings that were on balls outside the strikezone. When Joe Simpson goes to the cliche pantry and pulls out "swinging at a pitcher's pitch," that's what he's talking about (provided Simpson is lucid and not on his painkillers again). Those marks that were so good in 2012-13 saw significant drops in 2014, leading to a higher contact rate, fewer strikeouts, and the Pirates shuffling him off to Los Angeles to play in Anaheim with the Angels. That team name is still stupid.
Now, this doesn't mean Grilli stopped being a quality pitcher. The great thing about being awesome at any point is when you lose something, you're still good. So, compared to his previous seasons, Grilli was crap. Compared to a lesser pitcher, Grilli holds his own. Still gets a K an inning, still keeps his FIP relatively low (3.37 last year and much lower with the Angels), and his velocity was pretty stable.
All told, Atlanta got a quality pitcher at a reasonable sum. You're sensing a "but," aren't you?
However, it's still a rather confusing signing. The Braves, who have known weaknesses and holes to deal with added to what could be at worst classified as adequate and as best, a strength. In addition, they did it over two years while adding a guy for his age-38 and age-39 seasons. This gets us back to the point that concerned me earlier this winter. Are we rebuilding or doing the "well, we still got a some good guys so let's try to sneak into the playoffs" thing? There's probably a better way of saying that, but hopefully you get the jist because the second one annoys me. Commit to one thing. You've spent all winter badmouthing the former general manager and talking about the state of the franchise in his aftermath. Yet, you talk about how close the team really is and how you are gearing up to compete. The inconsistency would drive Joe Morgan mad. The longest rebuild comes form the franchise that refuses to commit to a philosophy.
But hey, if this is just to buy time for the youngsters because you can find a team willing to pay a premium for Kimbrel, great move, Hart!
Grilli is the latest addition to the remade Atlanta Braves, signed to a $8M contract over the next two seasons with an option for 2017...the amazing wonderful year where it will all make sense. This is probably too much snark for Christmas Eve, but Hart made me do it.
The former Pirates closer joins a bullpen that already included the dominating Craig Kimbrel, arbitration-eligible arms like David Carpenter and James Russell, newly minted Jim Johnson, reacquired Arodys Vizcaino, holdover Luis Avilan, and a list of young guys looking to establish themselves: Shae Simmons, Chasen Shreve, Ian Thomas, and Juan Jaime. Oh, and David Hale.
That would appear to signal a pending trade including at least one reliever to clear things up a little. But even with that trade, this signing is just odd. After all, if a trade took away one of the known guys (Kimbrel, Carp, Russell, Johnson), you would still have a lot of names working their way into the picture. Course, you could have it be even more complicated if you still had Anthony Varvaro, but luckily, he's a Red Sox now. Dodged that bullet (?).
And why the Braves had to sink $8M and two years into Grilli is also a conundrum. Coincidentally, the Cardinals just signed our old buddy Jordan Walden to a 2 year, $6.6M, but I'll give you that the comparison between the two is moot because Walden was still arbitration-eligible. As far as multiple year contracts go, Grilli's is the third cheapest contract given out on the free agent market so far. But that's also the rub. Guys like Grilli typically don't get, coming off an unimpressive 2014, a contract with multiple seasons guaranteed.
With that said, who is Grilli? Well, you can always buy his book and figure it out. Or if you want to save yourself the brain aneurysm, you can read the tremendous review of said book from Bucs Dugout. I can't stress this enough. Do the latter.
Oh, wait, what kind of pitcher is he? A former first round pick, Grilli has struggled to stay healthy and even when he was, he hasn't been all that effective until landing in Pittsburgh. His success culminated into a dominant 2013 where he posted a 1.97 FIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5. That is pretty damn good. That should get you excited. A two-pitch pitcher, Grilli relies on a well-spotted 92-95 mph fastball to set up his out pitch, a slider that he shelved his big breaking curveball around 2007.
Why did he go from All-Star in 2013 to traded away for pennies the next year? He wasn't controlling the count. In the two years preceding 2014, 14.4% of his strikes were swinging strikes. Obviously, that is an example of sick stuff and good counts. Only eight relievers were better, including Kimbrel. This led to the 12th best O-Swing%, or the percentage of total swings that were on balls outside the strikezone. When Joe Simpson goes to the cliche pantry and pulls out "swinging at a pitcher's pitch," that's what he's talking about (provided Simpson is lucid and not on his painkillers again). Those marks that were so good in 2012-13 saw significant drops in 2014, leading to a higher contact rate, fewer strikeouts, and the Pirates shuffling him off to Los Angeles to play in Anaheim with the Angels. That team name is still stupid.
Now, this doesn't mean Grilli stopped being a quality pitcher. The great thing about being awesome at any point is when you lose something, you're still good. So, compared to his previous seasons, Grilli was crap. Compared to a lesser pitcher, Grilli holds his own. Still gets a K an inning, still keeps his FIP relatively low (3.37 last year and much lower with the Angels), and his velocity was pretty stable.
All told, Atlanta got a quality pitcher at a reasonable sum. You're sensing a "but," aren't you?
However, it's still a rather confusing signing. The Braves, who have known weaknesses and holes to deal with added to what could be at worst classified as adequate and as best, a strength. In addition, they did it over two years while adding a guy for his age-38 and age-39 seasons. This gets us back to the point that concerned me earlier this winter. Are we rebuilding or doing the "well, we still got a some good guys so let's try to sneak into the playoffs" thing? There's probably a better way of saying that, but hopefully you get the jist because the second one annoys me. Commit to one thing. You've spent all winter badmouthing the former general manager and talking about the state of the franchise in his aftermath. Yet, you talk about how close the team really is and how you are gearing up to compete. The inconsistency would drive Joe Morgan mad. The longest rebuild comes form the franchise that refuses to commit to a philosophy.
But hey, if this is just to buy time for the youngsters because you can find a team willing to pay a premium for Kimbrel, great move, Hart!
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Fifth Starter Hunting
While a rebuild is in place, the Braves still need to add to next year's squad. During a Q&A with David O'Brien, John Hart even talked about the need to go searching for a starting pitcher. But who? At this point, the market is still heavily saturated with starters, but many are likely not exactly what the Braves should be searching for. Obviously, bargain hunting and signing James Shields do not mix. Plus, there is several approaches to consider. Do the Braves go after a veteran, either looking toe extend his career or looking to re-establish value after a down year? How about a guy who won't win any awards, but could hold down a job for a couple of seasons? Or should the Braves get back into the trade market and target a team-controlled guy who might be part of the 2017 roster we keep hearing so much about?
For my part, I would go with the first approach. My rationale is that for a team looking to rebuild, they could benefit from grabbing a veteran on a one-year pact and if he produces, sell him off for a prospect at the deadline. Sure, chances are you won't get a star in return, but the Pirates got both Andrew Lambo and James McDonald for Octavio Dotel in 2010. While Dotel wasn't a starter, the idea is that that one-year stopgap could turn into a player or two that might help at some point. Being that the team who acquires this veteran is likely looking at what he's already providing the Braves (dependable innings as a reasonable salary), a team looking to shore up their staff for the stretch run could pay well for the services of our unnamed pitcher. Also, the Braves could theoretically send cash if the interested team is in a bind, which also improve the quality of the prospect.
With that in mind, here's seven to consider. Warning: nobody on this list will excite you. You'll avoid drafting them for your fantasy league. The only positive reaction you'll have is to know that a worse pitcher wasn't signed or that the job was David Hale's.
Kevin Correia - RHP - Tough to find a pitcher who is less impressive than Correia. He wasn't doing so hot with the Twins ahead of his late season move to the Dodgers (traded for a player to be named or cash) and was roughed up then, too. He doesn't have the marks that we would expect from a guy who could potentially have an impressive season and gain a prospect in return. If you're a week away from camp and need to grab an arm, Correia is worth a look, but he's an ugly choice otherwise.
Roberto Hernandez - RHP - Not to be confused with Boom-Boom, the former Fausto Carmona had a decent ERA ahead of his trade to the Dodgers (who grabbed every "meh" starting pitcher last summer). The sabermetric numbers give him no positive marks, though. However, for a few months of decent pitching, the Phillies got a pair of prospects from the Dodgers and while both prospects are years away, they fit the idea of potential sleepers that help build a system. Carmona is homer prone, but in a park that plays down homers like Turner Field, you might fool a team into thinking the old Fausto is back. Compared to others on the market, I would have to be Correia-level desperate before taking a chance on Hernandez.
Kyle Kendrick - RHP - I wouldn't think Kendrick would get to the point this offseason where a one-year deal would be all he could find, but the still just 30-year old might think getting away from Philly's park, where has given up over half of his homers, will go a long way toward getting him a better deal next winter. In that respect, he does fit into our plans, but again, I do think a team will give him multiple years and I'm trying to stay away from committing money to non-core players. Oh, and I'm not keen on the idea of giving a guy with a career 4.42 ERA multiple years.
Paul Maholm - LHP - This guy again? Here's the deal with Maholm. I see his numbers with the Dodgers last year, too, but it's also the worst season of his career. Between 2008 and 2013, his FIP lived in the 3.78-4.24 range, an acceptable landing point for a guy we want to get roughly 20-24 starts from. His velocity remains as underwhelming as ever so the only thing I can chalk up last season's failures to was his move to the bullpen for most of the season. Returning to a park he's comfortable pitching in, Maholm could look like a solid cog at the bottom of the rotation and someone another team would target.
Kevin Slowey - RHP - The problem with Slowey for this exercise is that he has just two seasons with 150 or more innings and we are searching for innings eaters. On the flip-side, what makes him appealing is that his FIP is constantly lower than his ERA. That also makes him confusing. We should expect him to perform better than he has, but he's not only failed to that year-in and year-out, he has failed to either stay healthy or stay in the rotation. Nevertheless, if my choice is Correia, Slowey, or Hale, I'll give Slowey a long look.
Ryan Vogelsong - RHP - A feel-good story when he came back to reach the majors in 2011, Vogelsong's numbers have taken a bit of a tumble the last two seasons, though he pitched just about as well last season as he did in his 14-9, 3.37 ERA year of 2012 when you delve deeper into his FIP and xFIP. One issue he has had over the last two seasons is a declining groundball rate, which has led to a higher line-drive rate. That never works out for the pitcher. He also has thrown a lot more cutters the last two seasons rather than his two-seam fastball which can help explain why he's getting fewer groundballs. Maybe using his cutter more sparingly will help him recapture his former glory, at least until the Braves trade him.
Finally, there's Aaron Harang. Coming off his best year since the Bush administration, he should be able to get a two-year offer somewhere and I would hope that it didn't come from the Braves. He had a great year (for him, at least) last season and it wasn't only smoke-and-mirrors, but hoping for lightening to strike twice (or three times in a two-year pact) is chancing our luck. However, if he wants to go the one-year route, he's as good as any of the above to post a reasonably effective season and get some trade interest.
For my part, I would go with the first approach. My rationale is that for a team looking to rebuild, they could benefit from grabbing a veteran on a one-year pact and if he produces, sell him off for a prospect at the deadline. Sure, chances are you won't get a star in return, but the Pirates got both Andrew Lambo and James McDonald for Octavio Dotel in 2010. While Dotel wasn't a starter, the idea is that that one-year stopgap could turn into a player or two that might help at some point. Being that the team who acquires this veteran is likely looking at what he's already providing the Braves (dependable innings as a reasonable salary), a team looking to shore up their staff for the stretch run could pay well for the services of our unnamed pitcher. Also, the Braves could theoretically send cash if the interested team is in a bind, which also improve the quality of the prospect.
With that in mind, here's seven to consider. Warning: nobody on this list will excite you. You'll avoid drafting them for your fantasy league. The only positive reaction you'll have is to know that a worse pitcher wasn't signed or that the job was David Hale's.
Kevin Correia - RHP - Tough to find a pitcher who is less impressive than Correia. He wasn't doing so hot with the Twins ahead of his late season move to the Dodgers (traded for a player to be named or cash) and was roughed up then, too. He doesn't have the marks that we would expect from a guy who could potentially have an impressive season and gain a prospect in return. If you're a week away from camp and need to grab an arm, Correia is worth a look, but he's an ugly choice otherwise.
Roberto Hernandez - RHP - Not to be confused with Boom-Boom, the former Fausto Carmona had a decent ERA ahead of his trade to the Dodgers (who grabbed every "meh" starting pitcher last summer). The sabermetric numbers give him no positive marks, though. However, for a few months of decent pitching, the Phillies got a pair of prospects from the Dodgers and while both prospects are years away, they fit the idea of potential sleepers that help build a system. Carmona is homer prone, but in a park that plays down homers like Turner Field, you might fool a team into thinking the old Fausto is back. Compared to others on the market, I would have to be Correia-level desperate before taking a chance on Hernandez.
Kyle Kendrick - RHP - I wouldn't think Kendrick would get to the point this offseason where a one-year deal would be all he could find, but the still just 30-year old might think getting away from Philly's park, where has given up over half of his homers, will go a long way toward getting him a better deal next winter. In that respect, he does fit into our plans, but again, I do think a team will give him multiple years and I'm trying to stay away from committing money to non-core players. Oh, and I'm not keen on the idea of giving a guy with a career 4.42 ERA multiple years.
Paul Maholm - LHP - This guy again? Here's the deal with Maholm. I see his numbers with the Dodgers last year, too, but it's also the worst season of his career. Between 2008 and 2013, his FIP lived in the 3.78-4.24 range, an acceptable landing point for a guy we want to get roughly 20-24 starts from. His velocity remains as underwhelming as ever so the only thing I can chalk up last season's failures to was his move to the bullpen for most of the season. Returning to a park he's comfortable pitching in, Maholm could look like a solid cog at the bottom of the rotation and someone another team would target.
Kevin Slowey - RHP - The problem with Slowey for this exercise is that he has just two seasons with 150 or more innings and we are searching for innings eaters. On the flip-side, what makes him appealing is that his FIP is constantly lower than his ERA. That also makes him confusing. We should expect him to perform better than he has, but he's not only failed to that year-in and year-out, he has failed to either stay healthy or stay in the rotation. Nevertheless, if my choice is Correia, Slowey, or Hale, I'll give Slowey a long look.
Ryan Vogelsong - RHP - A feel-good story when he came back to reach the majors in 2011, Vogelsong's numbers have taken a bit of a tumble the last two seasons, though he pitched just about as well last season as he did in his 14-9, 3.37 ERA year of 2012 when you delve deeper into his FIP and xFIP. One issue he has had over the last two seasons is a declining groundball rate, which has led to a higher line-drive rate. That never works out for the pitcher. He also has thrown a lot more cutters the last two seasons rather than his two-seam fastball which can help explain why he's getting fewer groundballs. Maybe using his cutter more sparingly will help him recapture his former glory, at least until the Braves trade him.
Finally, there's Aaron Harang. Coming off his best year since the Bush administration, he should be able to get a two-year offer somewhere and I would hope that it didn't come from the Braves. He had a great year (for him, at least) last season and it wasn't only smoke-and-mirrors, but hoping for lightening to strike twice (or three times in a two-year pact) is chancing our luck. However, if he wants to go the one-year route, he's as good as any of the above to post a reasonably effective season and get some trade interest.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
John Hart: Okay, so I lied. This is a rebuild.
Since being "hired" to head up things in Atlanta, we have heard John Hart mention several times one particular point that needed to be clarified. John Schuerholz has parroted the line.
This is not a rebuild. We don't use that word. We are retooling and trying to compete in 2015 with an eye towards having an even better club when the new ballpark opens in 2017. We are totally not rebuilding and breaking down something that won the division in 2013.
It was a nice message. It was full of crap, but it was a nice message to ticket buyers. For people like me who despised the idea of half-assing a real rebuild, it was disconcerting. Change the culture all you want with a guy like Nick Markakis, but if you believe what Frank Wren built was flawed, do something about it. More to the point - make a decision to rebuild or compete.
Well, on Friday, that decision was clear. The Braves are rebuilding and trying to acquire a wealth of young talent. Having already added Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins, and Arodys Vizcaino in trades, the Braves pulled off the blockbuster we have been waiting for as they moved outfielder Justin Upton to the Padres for four prospects - none as good as the ones we had been hoping were on the table. And the idea, supported by me, that Upton should be worth more in a trade than Jason Heyward didn't hold true, though that was apparently the Braves' goal. Maybe they meant Upton would be worth more prospects, not better quality. Further, the Braves couldn't even package one of their ugly two contracts with J-Up.
What did they get, though?
The best player of the deal for the Braves is Max Fried. That's kind of depressing because he just had Tommy John surgery in August. It's not that Fried's not a top prospect. After all, we are talking about a dude who was was around 50th in many publications for the best prospects in the game over the last couple of seasons. Fried has a lot of potential and is still a month away from being 21. He possesses a great curveball and many pointed to Cole Hamels as an apt comparison of Fried before the 2012 draft where he was taken seventh overall. Hamels, a southpaw like Fried, has turned out pretty good. Plus, I don't see anything necessarily ugly in his delivery to think he can't put August's surgery in the rear-view mirror and move on. Nevertheless, that's an added factor for a guy who won't pitch for your system until 2016. Maybe he'll become our Adam Wainwright and maybe my expectations were entirely too high. Fried as the second best player of the trade is acceptable. As the centerpiece? Ugh.
Atlanta also acquired a trio of hitters. The only one ready to contribute in 2015 is Jace Peterson, a middle infielder who got to the majors for 27 games last season. The 58th overall selection of the 2011 draft possesses good speed and athleticism. He also fits into the new Braves Way in that he grinds out at-bats and won't strike out. That's a product of what Baseball America once ranked as the best bad speed in the Padres system. He fits into the mold of the guy who will serve pitches where they're "pitched" over look for a pitch he can elevate. He had a tremendous 2013 season, but he also played in the California League, one of the most hitter friendly leagues in baseball and certainly wasn't a young rising prospect either at the age of 23. So, it wasn't surprising that the Padres pushed him quickly to AAA after a short stop in AA to open 2014. He hit well with El Paso, but again, the league (PCL) makes Andy Marte and Brock Peterson look damn good. His ceiling as a major leaguer is low. Basically, he's going to have to scratch for everything he does earn. Jace is part of the battle for playing time and should provide the team some depth. He could even platoon at either second or third depending on his performance. Still, he might only be a utility guy for a good team, stretched by bad teams into too many plate appearances.
Outfielder Mallex Smith has a ton of speed (88 steals last year), but hasn't faced AA pitching yet despite spending 240 of his 265 career games above rookie ball. There are some who love him, some who aren't super impressed. I'm part of the latter group. I acknowledge he's a decent enough prospect and might be a better player than I right now feel he's capable of. I haven't read enough on his defense, but so far, I've missed any glowing reports on it. It's not enough to have speed. To be better than Juan Pierre, you have to have another tool. I'll say this about him, though. His chances of being a successful major league player are better than running into someone who shares his first name.
Finally, third baseman Dustin Peterson, who is not related to Jace, but IS related to a guy the Braves were supposedly interested for when it came to trading Upton to the Mariners. The younger of two, Dustin was considered a better pro prospect out of high school than his older brother, which is why D.J. went to college and Dustin signed as a 2nd rounder by the Padres in 2013. He played short in high school, but has been a 3B (to little success) in his short professional career. Despite a compact swing and great bat speed, Peterson struck out often last season which could be an example of bad adjustments. He did show a little pop (ISO of .128) and is expected to have value at the plate, though where he plays defensively is a question and he could get moved to the outfield.
Overall, the general consensus is that it was a decent haul for the Braves. I came away unimpressed, but I admit my grades might be lower than others, especially in regards to the last two members of the deal. For me to get excited about what the Braves got, a better prospect would have had to be the centerpiece since Fried is hurt. I do like Fried, but my hope for the other three prospects in this trade is minimal. Is it still a win to gain six years of Fried for one year of Upton + compensation pick? Probably, but it's hard not to wish for more. Obviously, if one of the Dos Petersons and/or Mallex the Conqueror break through, it would tip this deal considerably in the favor of the Braves, especially since this next season (or two) are basically lost years. My only real quibble is that the Braves were holding out for weeks for the right deal and this one just doesn't give me that feeling.
The big picture also puts into light other moves Atlanta has made this offseason. The one that sticks out is the signing of 31-year old Nick Markakis to a four-year deal. While he fits what the Braves essentially are looking for (high contact), spending that kind of money on an older player while in the midst of a rebuild calls into the question the consistency of the moves.
In addition, are the Braves done? Since the Heyward deal, it appeared that the trade of Upton was unavoidable. Even though the front office was throwing the ridiculous "this isn't a rebuild" mantra out and had spent heavily on Markakis, it was obvious that the Braves were doing away with the Frank Wren years. After this trade of Upton, that same feeling isn't there. The Braves could try to deal away Evan Gattis or find some more salary relief by trading Chris Johnson, but it would appear, barring a surprising move, that the Braves are likely taking a backseat to the ridiculously active trade market. They could look for more signings like the ones that brought Alberto Callaspo and Jim Johnson to town. Low-cost and short-term moves that are aimed at providing the team with, at worst, potential solid trade bait at the deadline. They could target Aaron Harang and/or Emilio Bonifacio for return trips, though the latter wouldn't appear to fit onto the roster now. Maybe get creative and target Jeong-ho Kang. They could also try guys who might be undervalued like Joba Chamberlain. But either way, the Braves have money to spend and an offense that went from bad to worse. Granted, the Braves might not compete in 2015 regardless, but the offense can't get much worse before our pitchers start going all seppuku.
This Upton trade isn't bad. It's not terrible. It's not even one you can look at and get angry about. Sure, you might hope for more in terms of the players coming to Atlanta and I do, but that's splitting hairs to provide fodder for longer blog posts. (did I break the fourth wall?)
And just the same, you can come away thinking the deal wasn't good. It wasn't great. It wasn't even one you can look at and get excited about. It was simply a reasonable collection of talent for Upton. There is a chance it works considerably in the favor of the Braves, especially is Mallex hits like some think he is capable of. This deal lacked an immediate return and that probably makes me think "meh" more than anything.
That said, at least we can bury this "rebuild v. retool" argument once and for all.
This is not a rebuild. We don't use that word. We are retooling and trying to compete in 2015 with an eye towards having an even better club when the new ballpark opens in 2017. We are totally not rebuilding and breaking down something that won the division in 2013.
It was a nice message. It was full of crap, but it was a nice message to ticket buyers. For people like me who despised the idea of half-assing a real rebuild, it was disconcerting. Change the culture all you want with a guy like Nick Markakis, but if you believe what Frank Wren built was flawed, do something about it. More to the point - make a decision to rebuild or compete.
Well, on Friday, that decision was clear. The Braves are rebuilding and trying to acquire a wealth of young talent. Having already added Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins, and Arodys Vizcaino in trades, the Braves pulled off the blockbuster we have been waiting for as they moved outfielder Justin Upton to the Padres for four prospects - none as good as the ones we had been hoping were on the table. And the idea, supported by me, that Upton should be worth more in a trade than Jason Heyward didn't hold true, though that was apparently the Braves' goal. Maybe they meant Upton would be worth more prospects, not better quality. Further, the Braves couldn't even package one of their ugly two contracts with J-Up.
What did they get, though?
The best player of the deal for the Braves is Max Fried. That's kind of depressing because he just had Tommy John surgery in August. It's not that Fried's not a top prospect. After all, we are talking about a dude who was was around 50th in many publications for the best prospects in the game over the last couple of seasons. Fried has a lot of potential and is still a month away from being 21. He possesses a great curveball and many pointed to Cole Hamels as an apt comparison of Fried before the 2012 draft where he was taken seventh overall. Hamels, a southpaw like Fried, has turned out pretty good. Plus, I don't see anything necessarily ugly in his delivery to think he can't put August's surgery in the rear-view mirror and move on. Nevertheless, that's an added factor for a guy who won't pitch for your system until 2016. Maybe he'll become our Adam Wainwright and maybe my expectations were entirely too high. Fried as the second best player of the trade is acceptable. As the centerpiece? Ugh.
Atlanta also acquired a trio of hitters. The only one ready to contribute in 2015 is Jace Peterson, a middle infielder who got to the majors for 27 games last season. The 58th overall selection of the 2011 draft possesses good speed and athleticism. He also fits into the new Braves Way in that he grinds out at-bats and won't strike out. That's a product of what Baseball America once ranked as the best bad speed in the Padres system. He fits into the mold of the guy who will serve pitches where they're "pitched" over look for a pitch he can elevate. He had a tremendous 2013 season, but he also played in the California League, one of the most hitter friendly leagues in baseball and certainly wasn't a young rising prospect either at the age of 23. So, it wasn't surprising that the Padres pushed him quickly to AAA after a short stop in AA to open 2014. He hit well with El Paso, but again, the league (PCL) makes Andy Marte and Brock Peterson look damn good. His ceiling as a major leaguer is low. Basically, he's going to have to scratch for everything he does earn. Jace is part of the battle for playing time and should provide the team some depth. He could even platoon at either second or third depending on his performance. Still, he might only be a utility guy for a good team, stretched by bad teams into too many plate appearances.
Outfielder Mallex Smith has a ton of speed (88 steals last year), but hasn't faced AA pitching yet despite spending 240 of his 265 career games above rookie ball. There are some who love him, some who aren't super impressed. I'm part of the latter group. I acknowledge he's a decent enough prospect and might be a better player than I right now feel he's capable of. I haven't read enough on his defense, but so far, I've missed any glowing reports on it. It's not enough to have speed. To be better than Juan Pierre, you have to have another tool. I'll say this about him, though. His chances of being a successful major league player are better than running into someone who shares his first name.
Finally, third baseman Dustin Peterson, who is not related to Jace, but IS related to a guy the Braves were supposedly interested for when it came to trading Upton to the Mariners. The younger of two, Dustin was considered a better pro prospect out of high school than his older brother, which is why D.J. went to college and Dustin signed as a 2nd rounder by the Padres in 2013. He played short in high school, but has been a 3B (to little success) in his short professional career. Despite a compact swing and great bat speed, Peterson struck out often last season which could be an example of bad adjustments. He did show a little pop (ISO of .128) and is expected to have value at the plate, though where he plays defensively is a question and he could get moved to the outfield.
Overall, the general consensus is that it was a decent haul for the Braves. I came away unimpressed, but I admit my grades might be lower than others, especially in regards to the last two members of the deal. For me to get excited about what the Braves got, a better prospect would have had to be the centerpiece since Fried is hurt. I do like Fried, but my hope for the other three prospects in this trade is minimal. Is it still a win to gain six years of Fried for one year of Upton + compensation pick? Probably, but it's hard not to wish for more. Obviously, if one of the Dos Petersons and/or Mallex the Conqueror break through, it would tip this deal considerably in the favor of the Braves, especially since this next season (or two) are basically lost years. My only real quibble is that the Braves were holding out for weeks for the right deal and this one just doesn't give me that feeling.
The big picture also puts into light other moves Atlanta has made this offseason. The one that sticks out is the signing of 31-year old Nick Markakis to a four-year deal. While he fits what the Braves essentially are looking for (high contact), spending that kind of money on an older player while in the midst of a rebuild calls into the question the consistency of the moves.
In addition, are the Braves done? Since the Heyward deal, it appeared that the trade of Upton was unavoidable. Even though the front office was throwing the ridiculous "this isn't a rebuild" mantra out and had spent heavily on Markakis, it was obvious that the Braves were doing away with the Frank Wren years. After this trade of Upton, that same feeling isn't there. The Braves could try to deal away Evan Gattis or find some more salary relief by trading Chris Johnson, but it would appear, barring a surprising move, that the Braves are likely taking a backseat to the ridiculously active trade market. They could look for more signings like the ones that brought Alberto Callaspo and Jim Johnson to town. Low-cost and short-term moves that are aimed at providing the team with, at worst, potential solid trade bait at the deadline. They could target Aaron Harang and/or Emilio Bonifacio for return trips, though the latter wouldn't appear to fit onto the roster now. Maybe get creative and target Jeong-ho Kang. They could also try guys who might be undervalued like Joba Chamberlain. But either way, the Braves have money to spend and an offense that went from bad to worse. Granted, the Braves might not compete in 2015 regardless, but the offense can't get much worse before our pitchers start going all seppuku.
This Upton trade isn't bad. It's not terrible. It's not even one you can look at and get angry about. Sure, you might hope for more in terms of the players coming to Atlanta and I do, but that's splitting hairs to provide fodder for longer blog posts. (did I break the fourth wall?)
And just the same, you can come away thinking the deal wasn't good. It wasn't great. It wasn't even one you can look at and get excited about. It was simply a reasonable collection of talent for Upton. There is a chance it works considerably in the favor of the Braves, especially is Mallex hits like some think he is capable of. This deal lacked an immediate return and that probably makes me think "meh" more than anything.
That said, at least we can bury this "rebuild v. retool" argument once and for all.
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