This week's return to Once a Brave focuses on a division with a lot of ex-Braves. The Braves have completed two deals with the D'Backs since March, two with the Dodgers since May, one with the Rockies, and a pair of pretty big deals with the Padres. Therefore, we have a lot of NL West guys to check in on. As usual, this list is not exhaustive and if you catch a player I missed, feel free to let me know.
Arizona Diamondbacks
P Randall Delgado - No longer even a consideration to start, Delgado just recently went to the DL with a sprained ankle. Before that, he had a 2.76 ERA, though other metrics aren't as impressed (3.71 SIERA).
C Gerald Laird - He played in one game this before hitting the DL because of his back. Five months later, he's still there.
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia - This is Salty's second stop this year after the Marlins showed him the door. He has an on-again, off-again relationship with the Mendoza Line since coming to Arizona which, amazingly, is an improvement. He's just 30 years old.
2B Philip Gosselin - He remains on the shelf, though I imagine a rehab stint is coming soonish.
SS Nick Ahmed - It's astounding that the Diamondbacks, who have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot, are sticking with Ahmed at short. But hey, he did go 4-for-4 yesterday to increase his OBP from .280 to .289. In Arizona's defense, Ahmed is a pretty stout defender at shortstop.
3B Brandon Drury (AAA) - Of all the guys the Braves traded to the Diamondbacks two years ago, Drury was the guy I immediately wished could have stayed with Atlanta. Yes, I was more okay with getting rid of Martin Prado than Drury. On the year, Drury is hitting around .300 with just four homeruns while moving from AA to AAA more than a month ago. He's coming off a .299 season with 23 HR.
Colorado Rockies
P Yohan Flande - The Dominican lefty pitched for three years in the Braves system and logged 95 games with the organization - all but one with Gwinnett - and during the 2012 spring training, Flande looked like he might be first in line to fill the void created by Jonny Venters' injuries. However, the Braves sent him back to Gwinnett. That's about as close as he ever came to pitching for the Braves. He's appeared in 25 games over the last two seasons, including a dozen starts, for the Rockies and hasn't been all that bad (3.90 FIP).
P David Hale - I never liked Hale much as a Brave, but I still wouldn't wish a groin strain on him, but that's why he hit the DL after his last outing. That outing was a win in relief. Against the Braves. Yeah, whatever. Hale recently stunk in a rehab start and has a 5.69 ERA this season for the Rox.
P Jair Jurrjens (AAA) - Yep, he's still around and he has been putrid this season for Albuquerque (6.68 ERA in 14 games, 13 starts). He turns 30 next January, but the the 2011 All-Star has only thrown 65 innings in the majors since the end of 2011. He's got a 7.20 ERA when he has been used.
P Gus Schlosser (AA) - Schlosser has had such an interesting career. He was so good in 2013 and parleyed that into a good run the following spring to earn a spot in the pen. The results weren't all that pretty...in fact, they were pretty bad, but Schlosser did accomplish something kinda cool. He got a hit in his only plate appearance. He was non-tendered after the year for "reasons," but the Braves snatched him back up before trading him with Hale to the Rockies. Love ya, Gus!
Los Angeles Dodgers
P Bronson Arroyo - Is there some kind of record for number of teams whose DL's a player has been on in one year?
P Luis Avilan - He's still waiting to make his first appearance. His last outing with the Braves was against the Orioles when he surrendered an extra-innings walk-off homer.
P Brandon Beachy (AAA) - It was a cool story that Beachy made it back, but after two starts, he was DFA'd as a result of the moves the Dodgers made. He decided to stick around the Dodgers' system.
P Trevor Cahill (AAA) - Did the Dodgers sign every ex-Brave? Cahill stunk and is still getting a decent amount from the Braves to be awful in AAA. Aces!
P Caleb Dirks (AA) - Don't look now, but the Juan Uribe trade may ultimately hurt a little. Dirks, who was picked up in the 15th round last year, started this year in Rome and has added time with Carolina, Rancho Cucamonga, and most recently - Tulsa. His ERA is under 1.00 for the year with well over a K an inning.
P Juan Jaime (AA) - Not news: Jaime can't stop walking people.
P Jim Johnson - In his first game, Johnson did exactly what he did in his final game with the Braves. He gave up a run. A home run to be exact which led to the Angels tying the game up in the 8th. Starting the game for the Angels was Cory Rasmus. Former Braves everywhere!
P Eric Stults (AA) - On the bright side, Stults, who joined the Dodgers as a AA pitcher, had made it back to AAA. I don't think I used "bright side" correctly. Unfortunately, because Beachy came back to AAA, Stults got pushed back to AA. Whole world is unfair.
P Ian Thomas (AAA) - The former independent league pitcher got his first major league start with the Dodgers earlier this year. He's been up a couple of times for the Dodgers, but mostly has been pretty bad in Oklahoma City.
P Alex Wood - On the night Jimmy Rollins returns to Philly, there won't be much of a spotlight on Wood, but he'll make his Dodgers debut against the Phils tonight. Former Brave Jeff Francoeur has had some luck against Wood in his career.
2B Jose Peraza - The former Braves top prospect has already added a homerun during his Dodgers organization run, his fourth overall of the year. He had five coming into this year. It's going to be interesting to see if Peraza sticks with the Dodgers long-term. With Howie Kendrick and Rollins free agents, the Dodgers could consider a Peraza/Corey Seager combo up the middle.
3B Alberto Callaspo - How does this guy stick around? He's OPS'd .609 since the trade.
San Francisco Giants
P Tommy Hanson (AAA) - Yep, he's around. In fact, there might be a game this year where Jurrjens and Hanson face one another. It's like the "What If" Bowl. Or maybe the "remember when these guys were our future?" Of course, that's under the belief Hanson doesn't get cut beforehand because he has been lit up in his first five starts with Sacramento.
P Tim Hudson - His back or his shoulder or his toe hurts so he's on the DL because it's fun to blatantly use the disabled list as a place to stick veterans when you don't have room for them. He wasn't that good before the "injury" and will retire at the end of the year.
IF Brandon Hicks (AAA) - A former 3rd rounder by the Braves out of Texas A&M, Hicks made it to the majors in 2010-11 with the Braves, but was extra-strength bad in a small amount of at-bats. After a stint in Oakland, he had a small run last year before reality set in. He's missed most of this year, but recently made it back to the active roster.
OF Gregor Blanco - He just keeps plugging along and has kept his OPS close to .800 this year. Pretty good year for a guy who was one traded for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth.
San Diego Padres
P Craig Kimbrel - His strikeout numbers are a little down (3.5% from last year) and a .289 BABIP has made him a little more hittable than usual. Still, while this could easily go down as his worst season, he's posted a 2.22 SIERA and 2.49 xFIP. I'd say that's still pretty good.
P Aaron Northcraft (AAA) - Also known as half of what the Padres got for Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Max Fried. Northcraft once threw a seven-inning no-hitter for the Lynchburg Hillcats in 2012, but never seemed to be a guy the Braves consider a real player in their system. He started this year in El Paso and stunk. A trip back to AA was successful, but he's been hit hard in his return to El Paso. He won't give up a lot of homers even in the Pacific Coast League due to his downward movement, but that won't stop hitters from reaching.
IF Ramiro Pena (AAA) - He's been an everyday player in El Paso where he has hit .312 this season while logging time at three infield positions. Because San Diego is who they are, Pena can't find a spot on the roster that has graciously given 264 PA to Alexi Amarista and his magical .576 OPS.
OF Justin Upton - He got off to a good start, but his overall numbers are pretty sad - even though he has been great at swiping bases. Upton turns 28 this month and has a good chance to enter free agency with his second sub-.800 OPS in the last four years. His free agency case will be interesting to watch in case someone overspends for potential over results. Amazingly, he's been great at Petco (.911 OPS) and awful on the road.
OF Melvin Upton Jr. - He's hitting better with the Padres than he ever did with the Braves. He's hitting .218. That said, getting his walk rate back to his days with the Rays has upped his OBP over .300 for the first time since 2011. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR this year. His fWAR with the Braves - 0.3. Slacker.
Showing posts with label Ramiro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ramiro. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Spring Training Preview: C/IF
(Been a little preoccupied so my blogs have suffered. Hopefully, I'll get back on schedule starting today.)
Previous previews: Starting Rotation / Bullpen
For the rebuilding Atlanta Braves, this offseason has been one of great change and even greater discontent from the fan base. I don't know about you, but I'm sick to death of hearing the old adage, "well, they weren't winning with those guys." But I get it...there were issues and rather than hope against hope that things would work themselves out, the Braves choose to be proactive and try to turn their best trade pieces into talent. It's not impossible to get behind this.
So, with that in mind, we'll continue the spring training preview series with a group that saw its starting catcher and presumptive starting second baseman get moved to new organizations. I'm grouping catcher into the infield preview for, what I think, are pretty obvious reasons.
With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Evan Gattis, Gerald Laird, Tommy La Stella, Ramiro Pena, and Emilio Bonifacio. While his power was thrilling and his story was legendary, Gattis had his flaws. He hated to take pitches and defensively, he was a mess catching. Worse, he was an even bigger mess at first base. Or in left field. His backup and Fredi Gonzalez doppelganger Laird also has moved on, finding word with Arizona. La Stella was involved in a surprise move back in November, but for how excited we were about him coming to the majors, most of that was due to him not being Dan Uggla and not because La Stella was a big prospect. We had similar hopes for Kyle Davies under the same precedent (well, he has to be better than Lance Cormier, right?). Pena and Bonifacio had their pluses as bench guys, but the latter got way too much money and the former struggled in his follow-up season to a surprising 2013.
Let's start at catcher and work our way around the horn. Christian Bethancourt is probably the starter at catcher for 2015. All moves have indicated as such after all and the rhetoric from the mouth pieces (DOB and Bowman) match that assumption. But what does that mean? Well, for an already bad offense, having C-Beth in the lineup 120 times is not exactly a plus. On the negative side, C-Beth has zero discipline and has never walked twenty times in a season. Even Andrelton Simmons thinks that is too aggressive. Bethancourt does have some pop. He's reached double digits in homers in two-of-the-last-four-years and was well on his way to a third before getting called up to the majors last year. Even so, that is one of his bright spots offensively. His prospect status has always been tied into his athletic abilities behind the plate and cannon of an arm. Will that be enough to turn Bethancourt into more than Henry Blanco? I have read some that believe his hit tool will eventually come around, but there is enough reason to be concerned.
And you can be all the more concerned because it's not like there's much behind him. A.J. Pierzynski had a good 2012, ballooned by an uncharacteristic 27 homers, but outside of that, his decline has been the kind you expect from an aging catcher. Not really known for his joyful demeanor, Pierzynski is an odd choice in my opinion to back up Bethancourt, but he should be good for at least one bench-clearing incident. Also around will be minor league free agents Jesus Flores and John Buck, though neither look like much of a threat. The most interesting option might be Yenier Bello, a Cuban who will turn 30 in a few days and whose visa issues limited him to just 15 games in the minors last season. He's probably battling to join Gwinnett coming out of spring training, but if he impresses, he could battle for a job in the majors.
The starting infield looks like Freddie Freeman at first, Alberto Callaspo at second, Simmons manning shortstop, and Chris Johnson returning at the hot corner. However, the stranglehold over playing time is certainly challenged at second and third base. Freeman returns for the second year of his mega deal he inked last season. He experienced a good follow-up campaign to his 2013 season that placed him in the Top 5 for the MVP, but it was still a step back. It's hard to ride the guy during a year where just about every other hitter didn't perform, but the problem with signing a $135M contract extension as people start thinking you should put up better numbers than .288/.386/.461 while losing 50 points on your OPS.
Skipping to shortstop, Simmons also has a long extension, but his drop offensively is a bit more hidden because he was signed for his defense. Still, a .273 wOBA is woeful. Only four players were worse last year and no, B.J. Upton wasn't one of those. The Braves don't need Simmons to do a lot offensively as he's a 2-to-3 WAR guy regardless, but they certainly don't want to play .244/.286/.331 nightly. In fact, the Braves probably will rely on Simmons more due to the trades this offseason. If Simmons could post a .270/.320/.400 season, he'd be a 5-6 WAR guy. If he doesn't...well, at least we can make one of these after every year.
Second base would appear to be Callaspo's...maybe. Jose Peraza is expected to take over in the near future, which might be this year. I wrote about some reasonable expectations for Peraza, but suffice it to say, our expectations should be very low for when he does get to the majors because even for the best prospects, it can take a little while to uncover the player they ultimately become. The stopgap, Callaspo, probably won't impress anyone. His offense is miserable and his defense has gotten worse. But, he doesn't strike out so that's something.
Callaspo's main competition also could be the main competition for Johnson at third. Jace Peterson was picked up in the Justin Upton trade and the rookie has experience at second, short, and third. He's a solid athlete which is what we tend to say about limited offensive players. He hasn't hit for much power and his stolen bases have been falling. Some seem to think he maxes out as a utility player and I tend to agree. His left-hand bat could make him platoon-worthy.
Phil Gosselin had his moments last year. He decimated International League pitching for a slash of .344/.379/.487, those his major league numbers were not nearly as notable. He often replaced La Stella late in games, though the Braves probably should have replaced Johnson for defense. Elmer Reyes has quietly posted a pair of solid minor league seasons and could be a bit of a late bloomer. Playing in the shadow of Peraza, Reyes posted a .728 OPS with Lynchburg in 2013 and a .751 OPS last year, showing little preference for Southern League or International League pitching. Still, his ceiling is very low.
The Braves also have a few guys on minor league deals who could make some noise. Corban Joseph looked like he would be in the mix early on this offseason, but he was not given an invite to spring training. That might have been due to the pickup of Kelly Johnson, a better player with a lot of experience in the big leagues. KJ also has outfield flexibility and could be in the mix there as well.
Overall, once you get beyond the starters at 1B and SS, there is only question marks. Bethancourt seems like the guy behind the plate and Johnson is probably going to be at third. Or maybe not. Typically, spring training isn't this wide open.
But typically, the Braves aren't rebuilding either.
Previous previews: Starting Rotation / Bullpen
For the rebuilding Atlanta Braves, this offseason has been one of great change and even greater discontent from the fan base. I don't know about you, but I'm sick to death of hearing the old adage, "well, they weren't winning with those guys." But I get it...there were issues and rather than hope against hope that things would work themselves out, the Braves choose to be proactive and try to turn their best trade pieces into talent. It's not impossible to get behind this.
So, with that in mind, we'll continue the spring training preview series with a group that saw its starting catcher and presumptive starting second baseman get moved to new organizations. I'm grouping catcher into the infield preview for, what I think, are pretty obvious reasons.
With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Evan Gattis, Gerald Laird, Tommy La Stella, Ramiro Pena, and Emilio Bonifacio. While his power was thrilling and his story was legendary, Gattis had his flaws. He hated to take pitches and defensively, he was a mess catching. Worse, he was an even bigger mess at first base. Or in left field. His backup and Fredi Gonzalez doppelganger Laird also has moved on, finding word with Arizona. La Stella was involved in a surprise move back in November, but for how excited we were about him coming to the majors, most of that was due to him not being Dan Uggla and not because La Stella was a big prospect. We had similar hopes for Kyle Davies under the same precedent (well, he has to be better than Lance Cormier, right?). Pena and Bonifacio had their pluses as bench guys, but the latter got way too much money and the former struggled in his follow-up season to a surprising 2013.
Let's start at catcher and work our way around the horn. Christian Bethancourt is probably the starter at catcher for 2015. All moves have indicated as such after all and the rhetoric from the mouth pieces (DOB and Bowman) match that assumption. But what does that mean? Well, for an already bad offense, having C-Beth in the lineup 120 times is not exactly a plus. On the negative side, C-Beth has zero discipline and has never walked twenty times in a season. Even Andrelton Simmons thinks that is too aggressive. Bethancourt does have some pop. He's reached double digits in homers in two-of-the-last-four-years and was well on his way to a third before getting called up to the majors last year. Even so, that is one of his bright spots offensively. His prospect status has always been tied into his athletic abilities behind the plate and cannon of an arm. Will that be enough to turn Bethancourt into more than Henry Blanco? I have read some that believe his hit tool will eventually come around, but there is enough reason to be concerned.
And you can be all the more concerned because it's not like there's much behind him. A.J. Pierzynski had a good 2012, ballooned by an uncharacteristic 27 homers, but outside of that, his decline has been the kind you expect from an aging catcher. Not really known for his joyful demeanor, Pierzynski is an odd choice in my opinion to back up Bethancourt, but he should be good for at least one bench-clearing incident. Also around will be minor league free agents Jesus Flores and John Buck, though neither look like much of a threat. The most interesting option might be Yenier Bello, a Cuban who will turn 30 in a few days and whose visa issues limited him to just 15 games in the minors last season. He's probably battling to join Gwinnett coming out of spring training, but if he impresses, he could battle for a job in the majors.
The starting infield looks like Freddie Freeman at first, Alberto Callaspo at second, Simmons manning shortstop, and Chris Johnson returning at the hot corner. However, the stranglehold over playing time is certainly challenged at second and third base. Freeman returns for the second year of his mega deal he inked last season. He experienced a good follow-up campaign to his 2013 season that placed him in the Top 5 for the MVP, but it was still a step back. It's hard to ride the guy during a year where just about every other hitter didn't perform, but the problem with signing a $135M contract extension as people start thinking you should put up better numbers than .288/.386/.461 while losing 50 points on your OPS.
Skipping to shortstop, Simmons also has a long extension, but his drop offensively is a bit more hidden because he was signed for his defense. Still, a .273 wOBA is woeful. Only four players were worse last year and no, B.J. Upton wasn't one of those. The Braves don't need Simmons to do a lot offensively as he's a 2-to-3 WAR guy regardless, but they certainly don't want to play .244/.286/.331 nightly. In fact, the Braves probably will rely on Simmons more due to the trades this offseason. If Simmons could post a .270/.320/.400 season, he'd be a 5-6 WAR guy. If he doesn't...well, at least we can make one of these after every year.
Second base would appear to be Callaspo's...maybe. Jose Peraza is expected to take over in the near future, which might be this year. I wrote about some reasonable expectations for Peraza, but suffice it to say, our expectations should be very low for when he does get to the majors because even for the best prospects, it can take a little while to uncover the player they ultimately become. The stopgap, Callaspo, probably won't impress anyone. His offense is miserable and his defense has gotten worse. But, he doesn't strike out so that's something.
Callaspo's main competition also could be the main competition for Johnson at third. Jace Peterson was picked up in the Justin Upton trade and the rookie has experience at second, short, and third. He's a solid athlete which is what we tend to say about limited offensive players. He hasn't hit for much power and his stolen bases have been falling. Some seem to think he maxes out as a utility player and I tend to agree. His left-hand bat could make him platoon-worthy.
Phil Gosselin had his moments last year. He decimated International League pitching for a slash of .344/.379/.487, those his major league numbers were not nearly as notable. He often replaced La Stella late in games, though the Braves probably should have replaced Johnson for defense. Elmer Reyes has quietly posted a pair of solid minor league seasons and could be a bit of a late bloomer. Playing in the shadow of Peraza, Reyes posted a .728 OPS with Lynchburg in 2013 and a .751 OPS last year, showing little preference for Southern League or International League pitching. Still, his ceiling is very low.
The Braves also have a few guys on minor league deals who could make some noise. Corban Joseph looked like he would be in the mix early on this offseason, but he was not given an invite to spring training. That might have been due to the pickup of Kelly Johnson, a better player with a lot of experience in the big leagues. KJ also has outfield flexibility and could be in the mix there as well.
Overall, once you get beyond the starters at 1B and SS, there is only question marks. Bethancourt seems like the guy behind the plate and Johnson is probably going to be at third. Or maybe not. Typically, spring training isn't this wide open.
But typically, the Braves aren't rebuilding either.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
A Look At the New 40-Man Roster Guys
Yesterday, I talked about the decision Wednesday to designate Jonny Venters and Ramiro Pena for assignment. That decision was made, at least in part, so that the Braves could free up room on their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. For a quick primer on the upcoming Rule 5, check out Fangraphs' explanation. Protecting young talent from the opportunistic general managers of other organizations is hugely important, though many who are protected one winter don't last all that long on the 40-man roster. Last year, the Braves protected Elmer Reyes, Carlos Perez, and Luis Vasquez. Perez was outrighted last September and is eligible for this year's draft while Vasquez was cut at the end of July. Reyes remains and with Pena moving on, his opportunity to make the 2015 roster improves.
It is currently unknown how many of those players added to the 40 man roster this year will play a role either in 2015 or the years after. A couple of them are true major prospects while a few others are interesting projects.
RHP Mauricio Cabrera - Though the 21 year-old righty has never pitched above A-ball, the Braves are well aware of his potential and moved to protect him. He has a little bit of violence in his delivery, but can touch 99 mph with his heater, though it sits more comfortably in the 95 mph range. A forearm strain took away months of his first season at A+ last year and I'm not sure if the Braves are willing to go with him in AA to open 2015. Also not sure if they see him as a starter or reliever. Similar to Arodys Vizcaino when the latter was moving north in the system. He'll get here faster as a reliever, but would have more value as a starter. His plus slider and improving change-up give the Braves reason to move him back to the rotation in 2015, but we'll know more on how they see him in the spring. Even though he appears to be a few years away, the Braves were smart to act now because a team with no hope of competing would have taken a chance on Cabrera to be a reliever in 2015.
RHP Brandon Cunniff - Probably the most intriguing choice of the group that joined the 40-man on Wednesday. Cunniff was a 27th round selection by the Marlins in 2010 out of Cal State-San Bernardino. The righty was solid in his only year in the Marlins' organization, but like many late round selections that don't wow, Cunniff was cut because his velocity was down over when the Marlins drafted him, plus they probably were committed to higher drafted or hyped players. He became a member of the Frontier League, an independent organization operating in the mid-west. Pitching for River City and Southern Illinois, Cunniff kept his dream alive until the Braves called during the 2013 season. He finished the year with 20 games in Lynchburg before a return trip to open 2014. The stay in the 'Burg didn't last long as he dominated Carolina League hitters, prompting a quick promotion to Mississippi where he posted a 2.98 FIP and 8.54 K/9. Although he probably won't be another fireballer with ridiculous K numbers, he's a smart and determined pitcher with velocity in the early 90's who is also close to competing in the majors. His age of 26 limits some of the hype, but all that matters is performance. In an Atlanta Braves' bullpen that is far from certain, Cunniff could have a shot to make the jump this spring.
LHP Yean Carlos Gil - While Cunniff is probably the most intriguing, Gil is probably the most confusing choice. Gil was a pretty notable international prospect when the Braves inked the southpaw, but had seemed to fallen out of prospect circles following his 2012 TJ Surgery. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was able to post a full season last year for Rome and does have tremendous control (1.9 BB/9) and was only burned for three homers in 126.1 ING. On a bad Rome Braves team last year, Gil was one of the few highlights. He limited left-handed hitters last season to a .220/.251/.286 clip, which might lead one to think he could have a future as a specialist out of the pen. That said, he's pretty far away and other pitchers were closer.
RHP Tyrell Jenkins - Not much else remains to be said about Jenkins after last week's trade from the Cardinals. Clearly, the Braves were going to protect him because he is one of their top prospects immediately following the trade.
3B Kyle Kubitza - I'm most definitely on the Kubitza bandwagon and have been for over a year now. The bandwagon's gotten a good deal more crowded after Kubitza's 2014 season (.295/.405/.470) and with the struggles of Chris Johnson in the majors. And with reports that the Braves are seeking out a potential platoon partner for Johnson, one question remains. Why not Kubitza? Probably because the Braves see him as needing more time to develop, but Kubitza could push Johnson to the bench by 2016 with his combination of athleticism (21 steals), medium grade power, and on-base skills. Reports on his defense are mixed and often with fringy guys, that's what we come to expect, but chances are good that he won't be any worse than Johnson. That's not to say that there aren't question marks and those question marks are why Kubitza is a good organizational prospect, but won't land on anybody's Top 100 prospects. His contact rate is sub-standard, which leads to a lot of strikeouts in the 25% range. Kubitza doesn't hit for much power (.170ish ISO) and his BABIP of .401 last season isn't sustainable meaning his batting average is sure to drop. Also, he's already 24. The prevailing wisdom is that if Kubitza was going to be much of a prospect, he would already be one. As is, he's still the Braves best option at third from their minor league system and considering what they already have at third, that's meaningful.
2B Jose Peraza - Adding him to the 40-man was a mere formality at this point. The bigger question is will the Braves seek out a quality stopgap to hold up Peraza or will they settle on an option that Peraza could easily surpass by midseason, if not sooner. I'm looking at you, Mark Ellis. At this point, we don't know, but if Peraza's skillset plays up in the majors, as many of us believe, he will quickly settle into the first "traditional leadoff" guy the Braves have had stick around for a few years since Rafael Furcal. Like most players, Peraza does lack a few skills. He doesn't walk and has no pop in his bat. His value comes in hitting .300, stealing a lot of bases, and playing tremendous defense. He has done that in the minors and there is enough reason to believe he will do just that in the majors. Peraza is defensively sound enough to play shortstop for almost every team in the league, but the Braves have the best guy in the game already doing that. As is, Peraza could provide the Braves with a Gold Glove counterpart and the best 4-6 combination on defense in the game.
RHP Williams Perez - This, like Gil's selection, is probably most interesting to me because of who it meant the Braves didn't keep. Unlike Gil, Perez wasn't a big international pick-up, but he's continued to progress in his short time in the system, reaching AA for 133 innings in his second season above rookie ball. This certain burst followed three years state-side in rookie ball, but a change to throwing his sinker as his primary pitch put Perez on the right track. He'll never amaze you with his pitching, but will impress you with his pitchability. Still, his ceiling is projected as a fifth starter or Kevin Gryboski type who comes in to try to get a inning-ending groundball (or at least, that's what Bobby Cox thought Gryboski was doing).
Like I said, Gil and Perez were kept over other notable players. Cody Martin stands out, but the Braves probably thought both of the keepers had more potential than just being a fifth starter as Martin has. Gil and Perez could easily be seen as potential relievers. Some have pondered why a guy who had trade rumors attached to him around the deadline would be kept unprotected, but I didn't buy that the interest in Martin was very high. J.R. Graham is also a noteworthy omission. It seems like the Braves have soured on Graham as the latter has lost velocity and stagnated in AA.
Edward Salcedo might also be an interesting un-protected player. Obviously, Salcedo has yet to even come close to becoming the guy that was supposed to be the next great Braves international prospect. He's OPS'd just .684 in 586 minor league games and has lost positional importance, going from short-to-third-to-right field last season. He's still an intriguing player because anyone who was that hyped must have had a reason. Of course, production matters and that's where Salcedo has failed to this point. At his age and level, there is little reason to think he'll suddenly get it and start to produce, but stranger things have happened. I guess.
It is currently unknown how many of those players added to the 40 man roster this year will play a role either in 2015 or the years after. A couple of them are true major prospects while a few others are interesting projects.
RHP Mauricio Cabrera - Though the 21 year-old righty has never pitched above A-ball, the Braves are well aware of his potential and moved to protect him. He has a little bit of violence in his delivery, but can touch 99 mph with his heater, though it sits more comfortably in the 95 mph range. A forearm strain took away months of his first season at A+ last year and I'm not sure if the Braves are willing to go with him in AA to open 2015. Also not sure if they see him as a starter or reliever. Similar to Arodys Vizcaino when the latter was moving north in the system. He'll get here faster as a reliever, but would have more value as a starter. His plus slider and improving change-up give the Braves reason to move him back to the rotation in 2015, but we'll know more on how they see him in the spring. Even though he appears to be a few years away, the Braves were smart to act now because a team with no hope of competing would have taken a chance on Cabrera to be a reliever in 2015.
RHP Brandon Cunniff - Probably the most intriguing choice of the group that joined the 40-man on Wednesday. Cunniff was a 27th round selection by the Marlins in 2010 out of Cal State-San Bernardino. The righty was solid in his only year in the Marlins' organization, but like many late round selections that don't wow, Cunniff was cut because his velocity was down over when the Marlins drafted him, plus they probably were committed to higher drafted or hyped players. He became a member of the Frontier League, an independent organization operating in the mid-west. Pitching for River City and Southern Illinois, Cunniff kept his dream alive until the Braves called during the 2013 season. He finished the year with 20 games in Lynchburg before a return trip to open 2014. The stay in the 'Burg didn't last long as he dominated Carolina League hitters, prompting a quick promotion to Mississippi where he posted a 2.98 FIP and 8.54 K/9. Although he probably won't be another fireballer with ridiculous K numbers, he's a smart and determined pitcher with velocity in the early 90's who is also close to competing in the majors. His age of 26 limits some of the hype, but all that matters is performance. In an Atlanta Braves' bullpen that is far from certain, Cunniff could have a shot to make the jump this spring.
LHP Yean Carlos Gil - While Cunniff is probably the most intriguing, Gil is probably the most confusing choice. Gil was a pretty notable international prospect when the Braves inked the southpaw, but had seemed to fallen out of prospect circles following his 2012 TJ Surgery. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was able to post a full season last year for Rome and does have tremendous control (1.9 BB/9) and was only burned for three homers in 126.1 ING. On a bad Rome Braves team last year, Gil was one of the few highlights. He limited left-handed hitters last season to a .220/.251/.286 clip, which might lead one to think he could have a future as a specialist out of the pen. That said, he's pretty far away and other pitchers were closer.
RHP Tyrell Jenkins - Not much else remains to be said about Jenkins after last week's trade from the Cardinals. Clearly, the Braves were going to protect him because he is one of their top prospects immediately following the trade.
3B Kyle Kubitza - I'm most definitely on the Kubitza bandwagon and have been for over a year now. The bandwagon's gotten a good deal more crowded after Kubitza's 2014 season (.295/.405/.470) and with the struggles of Chris Johnson in the majors. And with reports that the Braves are seeking out a potential platoon partner for Johnson, one question remains. Why not Kubitza? Probably because the Braves see him as needing more time to develop, but Kubitza could push Johnson to the bench by 2016 with his combination of athleticism (21 steals), medium grade power, and on-base skills. Reports on his defense are mixed and often with fringy guys, that's what we come to expect, but chances are good that he won't be any worse than Johnson. That's not to say that there aren't question marks and those question marks are why Kubitza is a good organizational prospect, but won't land on anybody's Top 100 prospects. His contact rate is sub-standard, which leads to a lot of strikeouts in the 25% range. Kubitza doesn't hit for much power (.170ish ISO) and his BABIP of .401 last season isn't sustainable meaning his batting average is sure to drop. Also, he's already 24. The prevailing wisdom is that if Kubitza was going to be much of a prospect, he would already be one. As is, he's still the Braves best option at third from their minor league system and considering what they already have at third, that's meaningful.
2B Jose Peraza - Adding him to the 40-man was a mere formality at this point. The bigger question is will the Braves seek out a quality stopgap to hold up Peraza or will they settle on an option that Peraza could easily surpass by midseason, if not sooner. I'm looking at you, Mark Ellis. At this point, we don't know, but if Peraza's skillset plays up in the majors, as many of us believe, he will quickly settle into the first "traditional leadoff" guy the Braves have had stick around for a few years since Rafael Furcal. Like most players, Peraza does lack a few skills. He doesn't walk and has no pop in his bat. His value comes in hitting .300, stealing a lot of bases, and playing tremendous defense. He has done that in the minors and there is enough reason to believe he will do just that in the majors. Peraza is defensively sound enough to play shortstop for almost every team in the league, but the Braves have the best guy in the game already doing that. As is, Peraza could provide the Braves with a Gold Glove counterpart and the best 4-6 combination on defense in the game.
RHP Williams Perez - This, like Gil's selection, is probably most interesting to me because of who it meant the Braves didn't keep. Unlike Gil, Perez wasn't a big international pick-up, but he's continued to progress in his short time in the system, reaching AA for 133 innings in his second season above rookie ball. This certain burst followed three years state-side in rookie ball, but a change to throwing his sinker as his primary pitch put Perez on the right track. He'll never amaze you with his pitching, but will impress you with his pitchability. Still, his ceiling is projected as a fifth starter or Kevin Gryboski type who comes in to try to get a inning-ending groundball (or at least, that's what Bobby Cox thought Gryboski was doing).
Like I said, Gil and Perez were kept over other notable players. Cody Martin stands out, but the Braves probably thought both of the keepers had more potential than just being a fifth starter as Martin has. Gil and Perez could easily be seen as potential relievers. Some have pondered why a guy who had trade rumors attached to him around the deadline would be kept unprotected, but I didn't buy that the interest in Martin was very high. J.R. Graham is also a noteworthy omission. It seems like the Braves have soured on Graham as the latter has lost velocity and stagnated in AA.
Edward Salcedo might also be an interesting un-protected player. Obviously, Salcedo has yet to even come close to becoming the guy that was supposed to be the next great Braves international prospect. He's OPS'd just .684 in 586 minor league games and has lost positional importance, going from short-to-third-to-right field last season. He's still an intriguing player because anyone who was that hyped must have had a reason. Of course, production matters and that's where Salcedo has failed to this point. At his age and level, there is little reason to think he'll suddenly get it and start to produce, but stranger things have happened. I guess.
Friday, November 21, 2014
See ya, Jonny and Ramiro!
It wasn't much of a surprise when the Braves announced that both Jonny Venters and Ramiro Pena had been designated for assignment late Wednesday evening. The Braves needed room on their 40 man roster for a slew of additions and I hope to look more into the names added this weekend. Before we get to that, though, let's look at the now ex-Braves.
Ramiro Pena
(UPDATE: Pena was actually outright to Gwinnett instead of being released so he's still in the organization.) It was a bit of a head scratcher when the Braves gave Pena a major league contract two winters ago. He had posted a .553 OPS in 338 PA with the Yankees over parts of four seasons. Players like Pena typically travel from organization-to-organization on minor league contracts, seeking out the right situation that gets them back to the majors. So why former general manager Frank Wren surrendered major league money to Pena was unknown. Perhaps there was a bit of a market for Pena.
Pena made Wren look really good in 2013, though. Unfortunately, his play led to Joe Simpson and his ilk attempting to call Pena a "National League type of player." On the other hand, fortunately, he was very productive for Atlanta, slashing his way to .278/.330/.443 off the bench. He endeared himself to Braves fans on April 12th when he took Clint Stammen of the Nationals deep for a two-run, extra innings homer in Washington. It was the first game of a three game sweep the Braves would have of the hated Nationals and the ninth win of a 13-2 start. Jeff Shultz would make it his job to remind us how poorly the Braves would be in 2013 if you took out 15 games of the season.
Pena's first season in Atlanta ended later that June when he was diagnosed with a tear in his right shoulder. Apparently, Pena walked on the mound at some point and was inflicted with the curse that kills Braves pitchers. However, his 2013 was good enough to warrant a return trip and the Braves settled before arbitration on the same day they brought back Venters for 2014.
Back healthy, NotPrado's 2014 season lacked the solid play of his 2013 campaign. Pena's wOBA fell from .338 to .285, though he did finish strong while stealing playing time at second and spelling Andrelton Simmons at short. Over the final two months, Pena slashed .333/.380/.400 and people like me thought that was enough to be brought back for a third season. Besides, he would have only made around a million. However, the Braves thought that was roughly $500K too much as a rookie on a minimum contract might be just as valuable. Pena should get some immediate interest from other organizations, though he will probably have to play his way onto a major league roster after accepting an invite to spring training.
Jonny Venters
Flashback to spring training of 2011. There were some who felt there that the young Craig Kimbrel was going to have to at least share the closing duties with the left-handed Venters. Those includes Fredi Gonzalez, who suggested that "Maybe we'll go the whole way" with dual-closers. Interestingly, Venters didn't buy that and he was right. He settled into the middle of the O'Ventbrel trio with fellow lefty Eric O'Flaherty and 2011 Rookie of the Year Kimbrel to form a bullpen to be envied by the rest of the league. Unfortunately, it wouldn't last long.
Venters had already been around for awhile when he got to the majors in 2010. Drafted in the 30th round in 2003 out of high school in Altamonte Springs, Florida, Venters chose to take advantage of a now banned rule known as draft-and-follow. The Braves could select a player deep into the draft and that player could put in a year of college under his belt before coming back to the table to negotiate a contract. The Braves liked what they saw out of Venters' only year with Indian River Community College and signed him ahead of the 2004 draft. Two years later, he experienced his first serious pitching injury and would be put under the knife for Tommy John surgery. There would be more.
An average starter as he climbed the ladder, Venters was a non-prospect ahead of the 2010 season and failed to make the major league roster coming out of spring training. That would not keep Venters down in the minors for long. On April 17th, it was Venters getting the call from Gwinnett. I can't find the transaction, but I got to believe he was replacing Jo-Jo Reyes and that alone should have made Braves Country love him.
Used largely as the long guy at first, Venters gained Bobby Cox's trust to the point that he became Billy Wagner's primary set-up guy once the calendar switched to June. On July 17th, Venters became involved in a memorable moment when he hit Prince Fielder for whatever dumb reason. The incident also led to a suspension and one of Cox's 158 ejections. But Venters' rookie season was known more for his terrific pitching. His 1.95 ERA was backed up by a 2.69 FIP along with a shade over 10 K/9.
After falling back into the primary set-up role once Kimbrel replaced Wagner the following season, Venters was again tremendous. His heavy sinker, which stayed in the 95 mph range, led to prodigious amounts of groundballs, including 72.5% in 2011. He went to his only All-Star Game, joining Kimbrel, Jair Jurrjens, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann as the Braves' contingent. However, 85 games and 88 innings pitched that year led to struggles down the stretch.
Fresh off two amazing campaigns in the majors, Venters looked like he would have another big year in 2012, but health was an issue and as was a rising sinker that led to six homers after three the previous year. He also spent some time on the DL and even made a rehab stint. He made his final appearance of the season on October 5th against the Cardinals in what we now know as the Outfield Fly Rule game. Venters came in with the Braves down 5-2, a runner on second, and two outs. He would give up a single to Matt Carpenter that made it 6-2 before inducing an inning-ending double play to get the game to the seventh inning stretch.
Hard to believe that was the last time Venters has pitched a meaningful game. An elbow sprain in a spring training game in March of 2013 eventually led to his second Tommy John surgery. In 2014, he kept rehabbing and trying to get back to the Braves, but never even took the mound in a minor league game. After being shutdown a few times, his season finally came to a close with a third Tommy John in September. He will likely miss all of 2015 and if he pitches again, chances are it will not come with the Braves.
The list of pitchers who have come back from three Tommy John's isn't very long. Jose Rijo briefly resurrected his career 2001-02. After that, Jason Isringhausen was a shell of his former self in 2011-12, but did get into 100 games to finish his career. Chad Fox and Scott Williamson also had numerous operations, but their success was non-existent. Venters does have youth in his favor and everyone loves lefties.
I think Braves fans are like me when they hope Venters does make it back to the majors, even if its facing the Braves. Watching him shutdown the opposition, even though it was brief, was a true joy. O'Ventbrel gave the Braves an edge. Shame it couldn't last. Good luck, Jonny!
Pena's first season in Atlanta ended later that June when he was diagnosed with a tear in his right shoulder. Apparently, Pena walked on the mound at some point and was inflicted with the curse that kills Braves pitchers. However, his 2013 was good enough to warrant a return trip and the Braves settled before arbitration on the same day they brought back Venters for 2014.
Back healthy, NotPrado's 2014 season lacked the solid play of his 2013 campaign. Pena's wOBA fell from .338 to .285, though he did finish strong while stealing playing time at second and spelling Andrelton Simmons at short. Over the final two months, Pena slashed .333/.380/.400 and people like me thought that was enough to be brought back for a third season. Besides, he would have only made around a million. However, the Braves thought that was roughly $500K too much as a rookie on a minimum contract might be just as valuable. Pena should get some immediate interest from other organizations, though he will probably have to play his way onto a major league roster after accepting an invite to spring training.
Jonny Venters
Flashback to spring training of 2011. There were some who felt there that the young Craig Kimbrel was going to have to at least share the closing duties with the left-handed Venters. Those includes Fredi Gonzalez, who suggested that "Maybe we'll go the whole way" with dual-closers. Interestingly, Venters didn't buy that and he was right. He settled into the middle of the O'Ventbrel trio with fellow lefty Eric O'Flaherty and 2011 Rookie of the Year Kimbrel to form a bullpen to be envied by the rest of the league. Unfortunately, it wouldn't last long.
Venters had already been around for awhile when he got to the majors in 2010. Drafted in the 30th round in 2003 out of high school in Altamonte Springs, Florida, Venters chose to take advantage of a now banned rule known as draft-and-follow. The Braves could select a player deep into the draft and that player could put in a year of college under his belt before coming back to the table to negotiate a contract. The Braves liked what they saw out of Venters' only year with Indian River Community College and signed him ahead of the 2004 draft. Two years later, he experienced his first serious pitching injury and would be put under the knife for Tommy John surgery. There would be more.
An average starter as he climbed the ladder, Venters was a non-prospect ahead of the 2010 season and failed to make the major league roster coming out of spring training. That would not keep Venters down in the minors for long. On April 17th, it was Venters getting the call from Gwinnett. I can't find the transaction, but I got to believe he was replacing Jo-Jo Reyes and that alone should have made Braves Country love him.
Used largely as the long guy at first, Venters gained Bobby Cox's trust to the point that he became Billy Wagner's primary set-up guy once the calendar switched to June. On July 17th, Venters became involved in a memorable moment when he hit Prince Fielder for whatever dumb reason. The incident also led to a suspension and one of Cox's 158 ejections. But Venters' rookie season was known more for his terrific pitching. His 1.95 ERA was backed up by a 2.69 FIP along with a shade over 10 K/9.
After falling back into the primary set-up role once Kimbrel replaced Wagner the following season, Venters was again tremendous. His heavy sinker, which stayed in the 95 mph range, led to prodigious amounts of groundballs, including 72.5% in 2011. He went to his only All-Star Game, joining Kimbrel, Jair Jurrjens, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann as the Braves' contingent. However, 85 games and 88 innings pitched that year led to struggles down the stretch.
Fresh off two amazing campaigns in the majors, Venters looked like he would have another big year in 2012, but health was an issue and as was a rising sinker that led to six homers after three the previous year. He also spent some time on the DL and even made a rehab stint. He made his final appearance of the season on October 5th against the Cardinals in what we now know as the Outfield Fly Rule game. Venters came in with the Braves down 5-2, a runner on second, and two outs. He would give up a single to Matt Carpenter that made it 6-2 before inducing an inning-ending double play to get the game to the seventh inning stretch.
Hard to believe that was the last time Venters has pitched a meaningful game. An elbow sprain in a spring training game in March of 2013 eventually led to his second Tommy John surgery. In 2014, he kept rehabbing and trying to get back to the Braves, but never even took the mound in a minor league game. After being shutdown a few times, his season finally came to a close with a third Tommy John in September. He will likely miss all of 2015 and if he pitches again, chances are it will not come with the Braves.
The list of pitchers who have come back from three Tommy John's isn't very long. Jose Rijo briefly resurrected his career 2001-02. After that, Jason Isringhausen was a shell of his former self in 2011-12, but did get into 100 games to finish his career. Chad Fox and Scott Williamson also had numerous operations, but their success was non-existent. Venters does have youth in his favor and everyone loves lefties.
I think Braves fans are like me when they hope Venters does make it back to the majors, even if its facing the Braves. Watching him shutdown the opposition, even though it was brief, was a true joy. O'Ventbrel gave the Braves an edge. Shame it couldn't last. Good luck, Jonny!
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: Left Side of the Infield
I'm going to tighten these last two posts up in case things get serous on the player movement front. Don't want to be doing a overviews when the roster is in flux.
Shortstop
Who we got?... Andrelton Simmons (you need someone else? Fine...), Philip Gosselin
Who's getting Arby?... Ramiro Pena
Who might be going?... Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Jose Peraza, Elmer Reyes
Listen, it's clear that Simba is one of the most exciting players in the game. You know how difficult it is to post a 71 RC+ and STILL post a 2.3 fWAR? But therein lies why we love and hate Simmons. Hate might be too strong of a word. I guess "endure" is far more deserving. We endure Simmons at the plate because he makes these amazing plays in the field that often take our breath away. His range, his arm, his soft hands, his unusual tendency to back up left field - it's all out-of-this-world and if Ozzie Smith is a Hall of Famer based solely on his defense, Simmons has that shot base don his.
But that bat...yuk. Simmons had a poor 2013 where he was badly miscast as a leadoff hitter, but he was quite better that season than he was in 2014. A slash of .244/.286/.331 won't earn most mortals much playing time. Amazingly, his infield pop-up rate tumbled from 17% to 10.8%, which got him off Fangraphs' leaderboard for the stat. Still, only four people last year did what Simmons did which was have a groundball rate over 50% and still have an infield pop-up rate over 10%. These things shouldn't usually work together. Now, a .261 BABIP, tenth worst among qualified players, certainly didn't help, but that was actually an improvement over the .247 BABIP he had in 2013.
Simply put, his power, which allowed him to smack 17 homers in 2013, left him (and most of the team). Paired with a moderate loss in BB% and simultaneous gain in K% and just about all that could have gone wrong with his season did. He's a special player, but he has to hit a little better and part of that comes down to, I believe, his swing. The only Brave who was gifted with as many fastballs as a percentage of pitches seen was B.J. Upton. Why these two? Because pitchers felt if they are going to make outs, let them. Simmons need to re-work his swing and approach and hopefully Kevin Seitzer can help with that. We know he can put wood on the ball, but simply popping up and grounding out does little to help the team.
Behind him are some backups we've already discussed. Pena and Gosselin are both capable enough at shortstop, though anytime anyone other than Simmons plays the position, the drop-off is notable. Chances are Peraza, when he arrives, will shift over if Simmons ever misses much time.
Depth Chart
1. Simmons
2. Pena
3. Gosselin
Third Base
Who we got?... Chris Johnson, Pena, Gosselin
Who's getting Arby?... Pena
Who might be going?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be coming?... Kyle Kubitza
Sit back and I will tell the tale of a man named Chris Johnson who never saw a pitch that he didn't think was worthy of his mighty swing. Since joining the Braves, only six players have swung at a higher percentage of pitches they've seen than CJ (55.2%). Only four players have swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strikezone than CJ (42%). But despite swinging like a light-hitting middle infielder, CJ doesn't make that kind of contact. Of those that swing at least 50% of the time (28 qualify over the last two years), only Josh Hamilton joins CJ as not making contact on at least 55% of swings on pitches outside the strikezone. 67 players over the last two years made better contact on swings inside the strikezone. That's out of 122 players. CJ's contact rate on all swings is 73.8%. That ranks 106. In his defense, Justin Upton ranks lower and B.J. Upton ranks second-to-last.
All these percentages were hidden as a .394 BABIP allowed him to post a 2.7 fWAR in 2013. A 50 point drop-off this season led to proportional drops in average and OBP. Unfortunately, like in the case of Simmons (and too much of the team), CJ's already average power disappeared. It would be fair to point out that Johnson finished strong, but he failed to even do that. He literally gave me nothing to talk up.
And Unfortunately for us all, former general manager Frank Wren guaranteed Johnson $23.5M over the next three seasons. While his contract doesn't make him completely untradeable, it definitely doesn't help. Back when he signed, I virtually penned a blogpost about how his contract probably wouldn't be too much of a mistake, but it was a needless one to make. But that was under the impression Johnson didn't completely crash. A 0.5 fWAR season is pretty ugly for a guy starting 149 games for you.
The Braves don't have many options in-house. Like with second base, Gosselin and Pena are best suited in a back-up role. Kyle Kubitza gives the Braves some hope. He's a better fielder and athlete than Johnson (he swiped 21 bases last year) and if he hits anywhere close to his minor league baseline (.271/.381/.437), he'll be a decent option that won't concern you as a starter. If he adds more pop, he's an All-Star. Now, I think that average will probably come down, but there is enough power to go with his great on-base skills to think he's a 3 win guy. Short of a trade that moves Johnson, Kubitza is going to be ticketed for a trip to Gwinnett regardless of what he does next spring.
For now, we're stuck with CJ. Ugh.
Depth Chart
1. Johnson
2. Gosselin
3. Pena
Shortstop
Who we got?... Andrelton Simmons (you need someone else? Fine...), Philip Gosselin
Who's getting Arby?... Ramiro Pena
Who might be going?... Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Jose Peraza, Elmer Reyes
Listen, it's clear that Simba is one of the most exciting players in the game. You know how difficult it is to post a 71 RC+ and STILL post a 2.3 fWAR? But therein lies why we love and hate Simmons. Hate might be too strong of a word. I guess "endure" is far more deserving. We endure Simmons at the plate because he makes these amazing plays in the field that often take our breath away. His range, his arm, his soft hands, his unusual tendency to back up left field - it's all out-of-this-world and if Ozzie Smith is a Hall of Famer based solely on his defense, Simmons has that shot base don his.
But that bat...yuk. Simmons had a poor 2013 where he was badly miscast as a leadoff hitter, but he was quite better that season than he was in 2014. A slash of .244/.286/.331 won't earn most mortals much playing time. Amazingly, his infield pop-up rate tumbled from 17% to 10.8%, which got him off Fangraphs' leaderboard for the stat. Still, only four people last year did what Simmons did which was have a groundball rate over 50% and still have an infield pop-up rate over 10%. These things shouldn't usually work together. Now, a .261 BABIP, tenth worst among qualified players, certainly didn't help, but that was actually an improvement over the .247 BABIP he had in 2013.
Simply put, his power, which allowed him to smack 17 homers in 2013, left him (and most of the team). Paired with a moderate loss in BB% and simultaneous gain in K% and just about all that could have gone wrong with his season did. He's a special player, but he has to hit a little better and part of that comes down to, I believe, his swing. The only Brave who was gifted with as many fastballs as a percentage of pitches seen was B.J. Upton. Why these two? Because pitchers felt if they are going to make outs, let them. Simmons need to re-work his swing and approach and hopefully Kevin Seitzer can help with that. We know he can put wood on the ball, but simply popping up and grounding out does little to help the team.
Behind him are some backups we've already discussed. Pena and Gosselin are both capable enough at shortstop, though anytime anyone other than Simmons plays the position, the drop-off is notable. Chances are Peraza, when he arrives, will shift over if Simmons ever misses much time.
Depth Chart
1. Simmons
2. Pena
3. Gosselin
Third Base
Who we got?... Chris Johnson, Pena, Gosselin
Who's getting Arby?... Pena
Who might be going?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be coming?... Kyle Kubitza
Sit back and I will tell the tale of a man named Chris Johnson who never saw a pitch that he didn't think was worthy of his mighty swing. Since joining the Braves, only six players have swung at a higher percentage of pitches they've seen than CJ (55.2%). Only four players have swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strikezone than CJ (42%). But despite swinging like a light-hitting middle infielder, CJ doesn't make that kind of contact. Of those that swing at least 50% of the time (28 qualify over the last two years), only Josh Hamilton joins CJ as not making contact on at least 55% of swings on pitches outside the strikezone. 67 players over the last two years made better contact on swings inside the strikezone. That's out of 122 players. CJ's contact rate on all swings is 73.8%. That ranks 106. In his defense, Justin Upton ranks lower and B.J. Upton ranks second-to-last.
All these percentages were hidden as a .394 BABIP allowed him to post a 2.7 fWAR in 2013. A 50 point drop-off this season led to proportional drops in average and OBP. Unfortunately, like in the case of Simmons (and too much of the team), CJ's already average power disappeared. It would be fair to point out that Johnson finished strong, but he failed to even do that. He literally gave me nothing to talk up.
And Unfortunately for us all, former general manager Frank Wren guaranteed Johnson $23.5M over the next three seasons. While his contract doesn't make him completely untradeable, it definitely doesn't help. Back when he signed, I virtually penned a blogpost about how his contract probably wouldn't be too much of a mistake, but it was a needless one to make. But that was under the impression Johnson didn't completely crash. A 0.5 fWAR season is pretty ugly for a guy starting 149 games for you.
The Braves don't have many options in-house. Like with second base, Gosselin and Pena are best suited in a back-up role. Kyle Kubitza gives the Braves some hope. He's a better fielder and athlete than Johnson (he swiped 21 bases last year) and if he hits anywhere close to his minor league baseline (.271/.381/.437), he'll be a decent option that won't concern you as a starter. If he adds more pop, he's an All-Star. Now, I think that average will probably come down, but there is enough power to go with his great on-base skills to think he's a 3 win guy. Short of a trade that moves Johnson, Kubitza is going to be ticketed for a trip to Gwinnett regardless of what he does next spring.
For now, we're stuck with CJ. Ugh.
Depth Chart
1. Johnson
2. Gosselin
3. Pena
Monday, November 10, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: Right Side of the Infield
Time for another look at where the Braves stand before free agency really opens up and players start shifting squads. On the right side of the infield, first base is pretty clear while second base is wide open.
First Base
Who we got?... Freddie Freeman, Joey Terdoslavich, Chris Johnson
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be coming?...Nobody (aww)
So, here's the plus of having a guy signed long-term. You kinda can ignore the position. Freeman signed a massive contract before last season which will pay him handsomely until the end of 2021. So, here's the negative of having a guy signed long term. You kinda get screwed if he doesn't play up to the contract you gave him. Freeman posted a .897 OPS in 2013 while getting top five recognition in the MVP voting. Last season wasn't nearly as successful. His OPS fell .50 points, though let's not get too bogged down with that. Yes, his isolated power showed a decrease, but the bigger story here is how it has fell from .196 in 2012 to .181 in 2013 and to .173 in 2014. That does give us some reason for concern. Now, he did hit 43 doubles and theoretically, more of those could turn into homers, but Freeman will begin earning at least $20.5M a year from 2017-21. Shouldn't we expect more?
Let's be completely honest, though. The Braves have much bigger concerns than Freeman. Even if he struggles, he's still one of their best hitters. I mean, he slashed .288/.386/.461 last year and I'm still dogging him. If his partner across the diamond had performed as well as Freeman "struggled," the Braves would have been in the playoffs. I have to say this, though. Let's not over-do this asinine hype about his defense. I know Chip and Joe will talk about him "saving errors" and his splits are impressive, but he has no range. His UZR since 2011 has fluctuated between -8.7 and -23.6 so we can be pretty safe in the knowledge that his defense won't win any Gold Gloves. Nevertheless, he's still a plus player for the Braves, even if his production doesn't help him stand out compared to the rest of his position.
But...what happens if he goes down? Well, the Braves had Ernesto Mejia, but he was sold to a team in Japan. Mejia was stuck behind Freeman and deserved a chance to perform and he did pretty well in Seibu. With him gone, if Freeman is out, who gets the playing time. Joey Terdoslavich was a bit of a prospect in 2011, than he fell apart in 2012. He got his prospect status back in 2013, but struggled the following year. He's a pretty decent line drive hitter who has fairly good plate patience, though he's a statue at first. Johnson could move over to first if needed, though that option reeks of desperation as well. Of course, the Braves will likely bring in an AAAA type like they did with Mark Hamilton last year, but Freeman better stay healthy if the Braves have any hope of unseating the Nats.
Depth Chart
1. Freeman
2. Johnson
3. Terdo
Second Base
Who we got?... Tommy La Stella, Philip Gosselin, Tyler Pastornicky, Dan Uggla (in spirit only)
Who's getting Arby?... Ramiro Pena
Who might be going?... Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Jose Peraza, Elmer Reyes
While first base looks pretty certain, second base is ridiculously wide open. First, there was Uggla. That sucked. Then, it was La Stella, who had some good moments, but you still have to outslug your OBP, especially when you have little speed and aren't a plus defender. Briefly, Gosselin was our hope. That's pretty sad. Finally, it was Bonifacio, who decided to suck ass once he came to Atlanta. Did you know Pastornicky is still around?
Where does that leave the Braves? Definitely searching for a long-term option and really, that is nothing new. Since Mark Lemke's run from 1991-97, the Braves have been searching for the guy at second. Marcus Giles held it down for four long years and Kelly Johnson followed with three. Keith Lockhart, Quilvio Veras, and Bret Boone have all had their shots. Last year was supposed to be Uggla: Chapter IV, but it turned into twitter calls for "TLS!" and so on.
TLS is La Stella and he did get the majority of time at second. The hiring of Kevin Seitzer would appear to help as La Stella is the type of guy who should fit into the offense Seitzer wants. La Stella doesn't K much and has good bat control. He showed more pop in the minors than he did in the majors, though it was rarely impressive. He's also had freak injuries that have limited him. Nevertheless, La Stella's skill set could be useful for the Braves provided he hits better than .251, which his brief minor league career suggests he's capable of. He has the profile of a .270/.340/.370 guy and while that won't knock anyone's socks off, it's not a terrible stopgap.
Beyond TLS is the Goose, who could platoon with TLS. Goose rode a .401 BABIP at Gwinnett to amazing numbers, but crashed a little once he got back to the bigs. Unlike La Stella, he doesn't walk and is not suited for a top-of-the-lineup assignment. Also unlike La Stella, Gosselin can play defense, which includes solid marks at second and decent enough skills on the left side of the infield. Plus, he can shift to the outfield in a pinch. While a platoon option, Goose is better suited to be the 25th guy. This makes Pastornicky worthless for the Braves. The Braves used the Ref's final option last year and it was strange why he was even around in the first place. In three years in the majors with most of the time coming in 2012, Pastornicky has a -1.4 fWAR. His minor league numbers haven't been impressive enough to think he's a post-hype sleeper and besides, you need hype first.
Pena is in arbitration and if the price isn't too bad, probably should be brought back for depth. While he didn't hit as well as he did during 2013, Pena is a plus defender who doesn't completely embarrass himself. Besides, is he really going to make much more than the $700K he got last year? Bonifacio struggled with the Braves after they acquired him, slashing just .212/.273/.280 in 41 games with the Braves while playing five different positions, the majority of which coming in center. He's badly mismatched there, but he's not a terrible second baseman. That said, he's a crappy option to be a starter. While he's good for 25+ SB, he doesn't do enough to be more than a super utility guy, which does give him value. The Braves could be an attractive place for the free agent with its wide open second base job, though the Braves would have to non-tender Pena to make it a sensible move for them.
Of course, there is a future long-term option. Peraza was limited by a late summer injury, but climbed from Lynchburg to Mississippi and didn't miss a beat. The 20 year-old slashed .339/.364/.551 in 110 games and swiped 60 bases. He showed a bit more pop, which makes him all the more attractive as an option. He was a deserving 2014 Minor League Player of the Year for the Braves and will be at the top of all prospect lists devoted to Atlanta's system this offseason. But he might need more time. Elmer Reyes has 55 games at AAA and did slash .295/.329/.422 between Mississippi and Gwinnett last year. While not the prospect Peraza is, Reyes does provide depth.
2B Depth Chart
1. La Stella
2. Gosselin
3. Pena
The Braves could go after a free agent option, though the market isn't that exciting. They could also make a trade, but they probably will not go for any option that is signed beyond 2015. Howie Kendrick has been mentioned as a possibility as the Angels are shopping him. Still, my bet is that they don't do anything and see if TLS/Goose can hold down the fort before Peraza is ready. If TLS does perform, the Braves could try to trade him while his value is high and benefit there as well. While TLS wasn't all that impressive in 2015, his skill set could still provide use. Regardless, you have to imagine that the Braves are both fearful that second base could be an issue next year and comforted by the quantity of options. This is why Bonifacio could be brought back. One more option won't kill them.
First Base
Who we got?... Freddie Freeman, Joey Terdoslavich, Chris Johnson
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be coming?...Nobody (aww)
So, here's the plus of having a guy signed long-term. You kinda can ignore the position. Freeman signed a massive contract before last season which will pay him handsomely until the end of 2021. So, here's the negative of having a guy signed long term. You kinda get screwed if he doesn't play up to the contract you gave him. Freeman posted a .897 OPS in 2013 while getting top five recognition in the MVP voting. Last season wasn't nearly as successful. His OPS fell .50 points, though let's not get too bogged down with that. Yes, his isolated power showed a decrease, but the bigger story here is how it has fell from .196 in 2012 to .181 in 2013 and to .173 in 2014. That does give us some reason for concern. Now, he did hit 43 doubles and theoretically, more of those could turn into homers, but Freeman will begin earning at least $20.5M a year from 2017-21. Shouldn't we expect more?
Let's be completely honest, though. The Braves have much bigger concerns than Freeman. Even if he struggles, he's still one of their best hitters. I mean, he slashed .288/.386/.461 last year and I'm still dogging him. If his partner across the diamond had performed as well as Freeman "struggled," the Braves would have been in the playoffs. I have to say this, though. Let's not over-do this asinine hype about his defense. I know Chip and Joe will talk about him "saving errors" and his splits are impressive, but he has no range. His UZR since 2011 has fluctuated between -8.7 and -23.6 so we can be pretty safe in the knowledge that his defense won't win any Gold Gloves. Nevertheless, he's still a plus player for the Braves, even if his production doesn't help him stand out compared to the rest of his position.
But...what happens if he goes down? Well, the Braves had Ernesto Mejia, but he was sold to a team in Japan. Mejia was stuck behind Freeman and deserved a chance to perform and he did pretty well in Seibu. With him gone, if Freeman is out, who gets the playing time. Joey Terdoslavich was a bit of a prospect in 2011, than he fell apart in 2012. He got his prospect status back in 2013, but struggled the following year. He's a pretty decent line drive hitter who has fairly good plate patience, though he's a statue at first. Johnson could move over to first if needed, though that option reeks of desperation as well. Of course, the Braves will likely bring in an AAAA type like they did with Mark Hamilton last year, but Freeman better stay healthy if the Braves have any hope of unseating the Nats.
Depth Chart
1. Freeman
2. Johnson
3. Terdo
Second Base
Who we got?... Tommy La Stella, Philip Gosselin, Tyler Pastornicky, Dan Uggla (in spirit only)
Who's getting Arby?... Ramiro Pena
Who might be going?... Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Jose Peraza, Elmer Reyes
While first base looks pretty certain, second base is ridiculously wide open. First, there was Uggla. That sucked. Then, it was La Stella, who had some good moments, but you still have to outslug your OBP, especially when you have little speed and aren't a plus defender. Briefly, Gosselin was our hope. That's pretty sad. Finally, it was Bonifacio, who decided to suck ass once he came to Atlanta. Did you know Pastornicky is still around?
Where does that leave the Braves? Definitely searching for a long-term option and really, that is nothing new. Since Mark Lemke's run from 1991-97, the Braves have been searching for the guy at second. Marcus Giles held it down for four long years and Kelly Johnson followed with three. Keith Lockhart, Quilvio Veras, and Bret Boone have all had their shots. Last year was supposed to be Uggla: Chapter IV, but it turned into twitter calls for "TLS!" and so on.
TLS is La Stella and he did get the majority of time at second. The hiring of Kevin Seitzer would appear to help as La Stella is the type of guy who should fit into the offense Seitzer wants. La Stella doesn't K much and has good bat control. He showed more pop in the minors than he did in the majors, though it was rarely impressive. He's also had freak injuries that have limited him. Nevertheless, La Stella's skill set could be useful for the Braves provided he hits better than .251, which his brief minor league career suggests he's capable of. He has the profile of a .270/.340/.370 guy and while that won't knock anyone's socks off, it's not a terrible stopgap.
Beyond TLS is the Goose, who could platoon with TLS. Goose rode a .401 BABIP at Gwinnett to amazing numbers, but crashed a little once he got back to the bigs. Unlike La Stella, he doesn't walk and is not suited for a top-of-the-lineup assignment. Also unlike La Stella, Gosselin can play defense, which includes solid marks at second and decent enough skills on the left side of the infield. Plus, he can shift to the outfield in a pinch. While a platoon option, Goose is better suited to be the 25th guy. This makes Pastornicky worthless for the Braves. The Braves used the Ref's final option last year and it was strange why he was even around in the first place. In three years in the majors with most of the time coming in 2012, Pastornicky has a -1.4 fWAR. His minor league numbers haven't been impressive enough to think he's a post-hype sleeper and besides, you need hype first.
Pena is in arbitration and if the price isn't too bad, probably should be brought back for depth. While he didn't hit as well as he did during 2013, Pena is a plus defender who doesn't completely embarrass himself. Besides, is he really going to make much more than the $700K he got last year? Bonifacio struggled with the Braves after they acquired him, slashing just .212/.273/.280 in 41 games with the Braves while playing five different positions, the majority of which coming in center. He's badly mismatched there, but he's not a terrible second baseman. That said, he's a crappy option to be a starter. While he's good for 25+ SB, he doesn't do enough to be more than a super utility guy, which does give him value. The Braves could be an attractive place for the free agent with its wide open second base job, though the Braves would have to non-tender Pena to make it a sensible move for them.
Of course, there is a future long-term option. Peraza was limited by a late summer injury, but climbed from Lynchburg to Mississippi and didn't miss a beat. The 20 year-old slashed .339/.364/.551 in 110 games and swiped 60 bases. He showed a bit more pop, which makes him all the more attractive as an option. He was a deserving 2014 Minor League Player of the Year for the Braves and will be at the top of all prospect lists devoted to Atlanta's system this offseason. But he might need more time. Elmer Reyes has 55 games at AAA and did slash .295/.329/.422 between Mississippi and Gwinnett last year. While not the prospect Peraza is, Reyes does provide depth.
2B Depth Chart
1. La Stella
2. Gosselin
3. Pena
The Braves could go after a free agent option, though the market isn't that exciting. They could also make a trade, but they probably will not go for any option that is signed beyond 2015. Howie Kendrick has been mentioned as a possibility as the Angels are shopping him. Still, my bet is that they don't do anything and see if TLS/Goose can hold down the fort before Peraza is ready. If TLS does perform, the Braves could try to trade him while his value is high and benefit there as well. While TLS wasn't all that impressive in 2015, his skill set could still provide use. Regardless, you have to imagine that the Braves are both fearful that second base could be an issue next year and comforted by the quantity of options. This is why Bonifacio could be brought back. One more option won't kill them.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Review of John Sickels' Preliminary List of Prospects (Part 2)
Yesterday, I began my look at the preliminary list minor league blogger John Sickels provided for Braves prospects for 2015. The Braves system is pitching heavy and sadly, most of the prospects aren't that good. Whether it was Frank Wren's fault or the heavy graduation rate lately that has built a young major league team, blue chip prospects are hard to find in the Braves system. Today, we look at the fielders who made Sickels list. Originally, there were 41 names, but further updates brought three more. Of those 44, only 16 don't pitch. Yikes. Fortunately, the best prospect the Braves have doesn't pitch. That's something.
Catcher
Christian Bethancourt - I think Sickels could have gotten away with leaving C-Beth off. I discussed him in yesterday's catcher preview so I won't repeat myself much. Suffice it to say...can he hit? That will decide everything.
Tanner Murphy - Typically, there is a wealth of information about fourth round selections, but the Braves' 2013 pick, Murphy, was a relative unknown. Also a pitcher in high school with 90's heat, Murphy is considered a good catcher and showed great patience last year. The Braves have had great success with catchers in recent years and with Victor Caratini traded, Murphy looks like the next in the line once C-Beth is established in the bigs.
1B
Braxton Davidson - Sickels mentions him as a 1B and there are enough who think that's where his future will be. For now, he has played left field and the 32nd overall pick in the 2014 draft has serious raw power that he didn't show during his first year in the organization. Nevertheless, he has 30 HR type potential and with power in such demand, that could garner some attention provided we see it.
2B
Philip Gosselin - The Goose was loose last year for the Braves and briefly had people believing he should start regularly. But that was more on those starting at second-and-third. Goose is a late bloomer and put up offensive numbers in the minors that stood out last season, especially compared to the four years that preceded it. Could be a decent utility infielder, but that's probably it.
SS
Ozhaino Albies - Talk about a great first season in pro baseball. The switch-hitter continues a great run of scouting out of Curacao. He played at both rookie league squads last year and won't be 18 until January. Nevertheless, he hit .364/.446/.444 with 22 steals and played 2/3's of the time in the APPY League. It wouldn't be surprising to see him in Rome next season. Defensively, reports are minimal, but he apparently has a strong arm. Of all of the Braves' prospects heading into 2015, Albies could be the most exciting.
Johan Camargo - It's a good thing Camargo played well enough to get moved up because Albies is already at his heels. Camargo is considered more of a hitter, though his numbers weren't impressive last season when he spent most of the year at Rome. Another switch-hitter, he might max out as a Martin Prado type, but is probably minor league filler.
Daniel Castro - He's been around for awhile and made it to Mississippi last year to close the season. Saw him impress defensively at shortstop with the Hillcats before his promotion. Your fairly typicaly high-contact, low-K middle infielder.
Jose Peraza - Ladies and gentlemen, your #1 prospect. While Sickels had Peraza listed as a shortstop, he spent most of the year at second base. There is a reason for that: it's his path to the majors with the Braves. Peraza stole 60 bases for the second consecutive year despite an injury limiting him throughout last summer. There is a chance Peraza breaks camp this spring with the second base job. If so, there is a high likelihood that he will pair with Andrelton Simmons to be one of the smoothest double-play combos on the game.
Elmer Reyes - After showing an improving bat the last two seasons that got him to Gwinnett for 55 games to finish the year. He has spent most of his career at second and short, but his future value is limited to being an utility guy. Could push Ramiro Pena this spring if the Braves don't bring in a better option.
3B
Kyle Kubitza - In four years since he was drafted out of Texas State, Kubitza has steadily climbed the latter, including a 2014 campaign where he hit .295/.405/.470 with 21 steals. He's pretty smooth at third if we are to believe reports over defensive numbers, which for minor leaguers, I mostly do. The left-hand hitter does have question marks. He K's a good deal (127 to 133 over the last three years). Does he have the power to stay at the corner infield spot (29 HR in 3 years)? Nevertheless, for us that weep at the idea of Chris Johnson starting at third for the next three years, Kubitza gives us hope.
OF
Todd Cunningham - Can we really call him a prospect anymore? He did add some power to his game last season, but I think his future is pretty limited to a fourth outfielder who will frustrate you as a starter.
Connor Lien - When you draft great high school athletes, sometime you just take a gamble that they put it together. Often, they don't. That's why the draft is so hard and guys who do a better-than-average job at evaluating talent are in such demand (and get paid so well). Lien made his full-season debut, though it wasn't until late May that he got into a game. His numbers did show improvement, but he's still very raw. Could be a breakout sleeper.
Joey Meneses - Hit for the cycle back in May and was a surprise, though an injury limited him to just 62 games. He can play the corner outfield slots or move to first and if he's able to add power to his 6'3" frame, Meneses would become a prospect to keep an eye on.
Victor Reyes - A lot has been said about the potential of Reyes, but his first season above rookie ball was very unimpressive. He's got the athletic body and has some speed, but the power hasn't been there yet and I'm typically not high on guys who prefer to get at-bats over quickly (he rarely walks or K's).
Edward Salcedo - Very few guys the Braves have been high on have been as frustrating as Salcedo. Once a major international free agent, Salcedo has never taken the hype and do much with it. The Braves last year moved him from third-to-right field and this is after he was once a shortstop. He has some pop, but his strikezone recognition is atrocious. Still, he's only 23. There's still some hope.
Kyle Wren - Well, this is awkward. Frank's son has hit .304/.362/.398 since the Braves drafted him in the 8th round back in 2013. He's also swiped 81-of-102 bases. Basically, he's a younger Cunningham that only bats left-handed. Still, he has a shot, especially considering he responded to a promotion to Mississippi by hitting just as well. Should be in Gwinnett next year.
Catcher
Christian Bethancourt - I think Sickels could have gotten away with leaving C-Beth off. I discussed him in yesterday's catcher preview so I won't repeat myself much. Suffice it to say...can he hit? That will decide everything.
Tanner Murphy - Typically, there is a wealth of information about fourth round selections, but the Braves' 2013 pick, Murphy, was a relative unknown. Also a pitcher in high school with 90's heat, Murphy is considered a good catcher and showed great patience last year. The Braves have had great success with catchers in recent years and with Victor Caratini traded, Murphy looks like the next in the line once C-Beth is established in the bigs.
1B
Braxton Davidson - Sickels mentions him as a 1B and there are enough who think that's where his future will be. For now, he has played left field and the 32nd overall pick in the 2014 draft has serious raw power that he didn't show during his first year in the organization. Nevertheless, he has 30 HR type potential and with power in such demand, that could garner some attention provided we see it.
2B
Philip Gosselin - The Goose was loose last year for the Braves and briefly had people believing he should start regularly. But that was more on those starting at second-and-third. Goose is a late bloomer and put up offensive numbers in the minors that stood out last season, especially compared to the four years that preceded it. Could be a decent utility infielder, but that's probably it.
SS
Ozhaino Albies - Talk about a great first season in pro baseball. The switch-hitter continues a great run of scouting out of Curacao. He played at both rookie league squads last year and won't be 18 until January. Nevertheless, he hit .364/.446/.444 with 22 steals and played 2/3's of the time in the APPY League. It wouldn't be surprising to see him in Rome next season. Defensively, reports are minimal, but he apparently has a strong arm. Of all of the Braves' prospects heading into 2015, Albies could be the most exciting.
Johan Camargo - It's a good thing Camargo played well enough to get moved up because Albies is already at his heels. Camargo is considered more of a hitter, though his numbers weren't impressive last season when he spent most of the year at Rome. Another switch-hitter, he might max out as a Martin Prado type, but is probably minor league filler.
Daniel Castro - He's been around for awhile and made it to Mississippi last year to close the season. Saw him impress defensively at shortstop with the Hillcats before his promotion. Your fairly typicaly high-contact, low-K middle infielder.
Jose Peraza - Ladies and gentlemen, your #1 prospect. While Sickels had Peraza listed as a shortstop, he spent most of the year at second base. There is a reason for that: it's his path to the majors with the Braves. Peraza stole 60 bases for the second consecutive year despite an injury limiting him throughout last summer. There is a chance Peraza breaks camp this spring with the second base job. If so, there is a high likelihood that he will pair with Andrelton Simmons to be one of the smoothest double-play combos on the game.
Elmer Reyes - After showing an improving bat the last two seasons that got him to Gwinnett for 55 games to finish the year. He has spent most of his career at second and short, but his future value is limited to being an utility guy. Could push Ramiro Pena this spring if the Braves don't bring in a better option.
3B
Kyle Kubitza - In four years since he was drafted out of Texas State, Kubitza has steadily climbed the latter, including a 2014 campaign where he hit .295/.405/.470 with 21 steals. He's pretty smooth at third if we are to believe reports over defensive numbers, which for minor leaguers, I mostly do. The left-hand hitter does have question marks. He K's a good deal (127 to 133 over the last three years). Does he have the power to stay at the corner infield spot (29 HR in 3 years)? Nevertheless, for us that weep at the idea of Chris Johnson starting at third for the next three years, Kubitza gives us hope.
OF
Todd Cunningham - Can we really call him a prospect anymore? He did add some power to his game last season, but I think his future is pretty limited to a fourth outfielder who will frustrate you as a starter.
Connor Lien - When you draft great high school athletes, sometime you just take a gamble that they put it together. Often, they don't. That's why the draft is so hard and guys who do a better-than-average job at evaluating talent are in such demand (and get paid so well). Lien made his full-season debut, though it wasn't until late May that he got into a game. His numbers did show improvement, but he's still very raw. Could be a breakout sleeper.
Joey Meneses - Hit for the cycle back in May and was a surprise, though an injury limited him to just 62 games. He can play the corner outfield slots or move to first and if he's able to add power to his 6'3" frame, Meneses would become a prospect to keep an eye on.
Victor Reyes - A lot has been said about the potential of Reyes, but his first season above rookie ball was very unimpressive. He's got the athletic body and has some speed, but the power hasn't been there yet and I'm typically not high on guys who prefer to get at-bats over quickly (he rarely walks or K's).
Edward Salcedo - Very few guys the Braves have been high on have been as frustrating as Salcedo. Once a major international free agent, Salcedo has never taken the hype and do much with it. The Braves last year moved him from third-to-right field and this is after he was once a shortstop. He has some pop, but his strikezone recognition is atrocious. Still, he's only 23. There's still some hope.
Kyle Wren - Well, this is awkward. Frank's son has hit .304/.362/.398 since the Braves drafted him in the 8th round back in 2013. He's also swiped 81-of-102 bases. Basically, he's a younger Cunningham that only bats left-handed. Still, he has a shot, especially considering he responded to a promotion to Mississippi by hitting just as well. Should be in Gwinnett next year.
Saturday, July 12, 2014
Trade Winds: The Filthy Philadelphia Phillies
Whoa, two articles in one day. Time to revisit the Trade Winds columns. Again, I'm focusing on losing ballclubs first and the Phillies are definitely a losing ballclub. Entering Saturday, Philly is 42-51 and their continued efforts to resist a rebuild has left the cupboard pretty barren. Their woeful general manager will sadly likely get the ax after the season (or before) and the Phillies are left with a long climb north.
Would the Phils provide a good target for improvement despite their status as an inter-divisional rival? It wouldn't be the first time the Braves have made an in-season move to improve their club with a Phillies veteran. Notably, the Braves acquired Andy Ashby from the Phillies in 2000.
Left-hander Antonio Bastardo would appear to be a very intriguing option for the Braves, who need the bullpen depth. While Bastardo's recent history suggested that he would be best suited for specialist action, his 2014 season is similar to his career numbers in that there is very little difference between facing right-handed or left-handed batters. He K's nearly 30% of the opposing batters he faces and while his control has been a little off this season (about a 14% walk rate vs. career-rate of 11.6%). Bastardo's amazing skill is that despite his GB% being well south of 40%, he typically does a good job keeping the ball in the park.
He's not a tremendous reliever, but he is a very good one with a career FIP of 3.37. A bonus - he's team-controlled through 2015. There is some concern in that Bastardo already has a PED violation to another one could bring a huge penalty. Still, with the Braves having a significant need in the bullpen, Bastardo has to be considered.
Outfielder John Mayberry Jr. is essentially Matt Diaz without the fanfare. The right-handed hitter carries massive split contrasts when facing left-handed pitchers vs. right-handed. As far as his career goes, it's about a 200 point difference with Mayberry hitting lefties at a .271/.323/.850 clip. Despite about 340 fewer PA against lefties in his career, he has five more homers. This season is no different with Mayberry enjoying a .877 OPS against southpaws vs. a .576 OPS against righties. He's team-controlled through 2016.
Would Mayberry be a good target? Probably not beyond this year if at all. He's already making $1.5875M this season. That's a lot of money for a one-trick pony whose trick isn't as much of a weapon as Diaz's when the latter was at his best.
A.J. Burnett could provide depth to the starting rotation and maybe playing for a contender will energize him like it did for the Pirates last season, when he was a front-of-the-rotation option. Burnett's walks have received a lot of talk, but as a rate, it's really no higher than his career rate. He's just thrown a lot of innings this season. Burnett has a, ahem, creative deal. Ultimately, it's $22.5M over two seasons, but that includes a $7.5M signing bonus that gets spread over three installments starting in December. He also has a $15M mutal option for 2015, or a $7.5M player option that can be worth as much as $12.75M if he makes 32 starts this season (he's made 20 so far).
Seriously, what crackhead thought this contract up? Oh, Ruben Amaro Jr.. Got it.
Could the Braves be interested? I doubt it. I like Burnett, but I hate this random contract and Burnett does have some no-trade protection that as far as I've seen has not been explicitly defined.
There's another option...how about Cliff Lee? Holy crap, I saw your eyes roll through the internet. Not nice. All I'm saying is that getting Lee is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Lee is expected to be activated soon off the DL and his trip to the DL makes him even more enticing as it assures that his 2016 club option will not become guaranteed. Now, the Braves will have to work around some major money issues and I will get to that, but Lee definitely would attract the Braves' interest. He gets his fair share of groundballs, hasn't carried a FIP higher than 3.313 since 2007, and until this season, he has dependably durable. He walks batters as frequently as Keanu Reeves is involved in a good movie and his K rate remains very good. So why the hell not Lee?
Oh, yeah, money. Lee is due about half of $25M this season and $25M next season to go with a 2016 club option for $27.5M that carries a ridiculous $12.5M buyout. So, if we cut his salary in half this season, Lee is due AT LEAST $50M. The big problem with that option year is that it becomes guaranteed if Lee throws 200 innings in 2015. Clearly, the Braves would need considerable help to make this deal happen, but to what degree is unknown considering they basically added $14M in salary after we were convinced they were done this spring. The Braves committed $112M to this year's payroll and have about $80M already committed to next year. With the extensions the Braves signed last season, the Braves cut into some of the big club of arbitration-eligible players, but the Braves still have starters Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Brandon Beachy eligible for arbitration next year along with relievers Jordan Walden and Jonny Venters, plus role players like Ramiro Pena, Jordan Schafer, and David Carpenter. How do you fit all of those guys and Lee into next year's roster?
Well, you don't. Some cuts will have to be made. If the Phillies added $8M to 2015 and $12.5M to Lee's buyout/option in 2016, the Braves would have about $10-$15M to spend on arbitration, plus auto-renewals if we believe that the payroll remains about the same in 2015. A guy like Medlen or Beachy would have to be shopped around. Signing Minor to a creative extension that lowers his 2015 salary would be useful as well. If the Braves wanted to make it happen, they definitely could.
It wouldn't be easy. But if you added Lee to the front-of-the-rotation with Julio Teheran, the Braves would take a very good rotation and turn it into an awesome one. In 2015, the Braves would still have Lee, Teheran, and Minor to go with Alex Wood and either Medlen or Beachy with David Hale in reserve.
I'm not saying DO IT!!!!! But...it's possible.
Would the Phils provide a good target for improvement despite their status as an inter-divisional rival? It wouldn't be the first time the Braves have made an in-season move to improve their club with a Phillies veteran. Notably, the Braves acquired Andy Ashby from the Phillies in 2000.
Left-hander Antonio Bastardo would appear to be a very intriguing option for the Braves, who need the bullpen depth. While Bastardo's recent history suggested that he would be best suited for specialist action, his 2014 season is similar to his career numbers in that there is very little difference between facing right-handed or left-handed batters. He K's nearly 30% of the opposing batters he faces and while his control has been a little off this season (about a 14% walk rate vs. career-rate of 11.6%). Bastardo's amazing skill is that despite his GB% being well south of 40%, he typically does a good job keeping the ball in the park.
He's not a tremendous reliever, but he is a very good one with a career FIP of 3.37. A bonus - he's team-controlled through 2015. There is some concern in that Bastardo already has a PED violation to another one could bring a huge penalty. Still, with the Braves having a significant need in the bullpen, Bastardo has to be considered.
Outfielder John Mayberry Jr. is essentially Matt Diaz without the fanfare. The right-handed hitter carries massive split contrasts when facing left-handed pitchers vs. right-handed. As far as his career goes, it's about a 200 point difference with Mayberry hitting lefties at a .271/.323/.850 clip. Despite about 340 fewer PA against lefties in his career, he has five more homers. This season is no different with Mayberry enjoying a .877 OPS against southpaws vs. a .576 OPS against righties. He's team-controlled through 2016.
Would Mayberry be a good target? Probably not beyond this year if at all. He's already making $1.5875M this season. That's a lot of money for a one-trick pony whose trick isn't as much of a weapon as Diaz's when the latter was at his best.
A.J. Burnett could provide depth to the starting rotation and maybe playing for a contender will energize him like it did for the Pirates last season, when he was a front-of-the-rotation option. Burnett's walks have received a lot of talk, but as a rate, it's really no higher than his career rate. He's just thrown a lot of innings this season. Burnett has a, ahem, creative deal. Ultimately, it's $22.5M over two seasons, but that includes a $7.5M signing bonus that gets spread over three installments starting in December. He also has a $15M mutal option for 2015, or a $7.5M player option that can be worth as much as $12.75M if he makes 32 starts this season (he's made 20 so far).
Seriously, what crackhead thought this contract up? Oh, Ruben Amaro Jr.. Got it.
Could the Braves be interested? I doubt it. I like Burnett, but I hate this random contract and Burnett does have some no-trade protection that as far as I've seen has not been explicitly defined.
There's another option...how about Cliff Lee? Holy crap, I saw your eyes roll through the internet. Not nice. All I'm saying is that getting Lee is not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Lee is expected to be activated soon off the DL and his trip to the DL makes him even more enticing as it assures that his 2016 club option will not become guaranteed. Now, the Braves will have to work around some major money issues and I will get to that, but Lee definitely would attract the Braves' interest. He gets his fair share of groundballs, hasn't carried a FIP higher than 3.313 since 2007, and until this season, he has dependably durable. He walks batters as frequently as Keanu Reeves is involved in a good movie and his K rate remains very good. So why the hell not Lee?
Oh, yeah, money. Lee is due about half of $25M this season and $25M next season to go with a 2016 club option for $27.5M that carries a ridiculous $12.5M buyout. So, if we cut his salary in half this season, Lee is due AT LEAST $50M. The big problem with that option year is that it becomes guaranteed if Lee throws 200 innings in 2015. Clearly, the Braves would need considerable help to make this deal happen, but to what degree is unknown considering they basically added $14M in salary after we were convinced they were done this spring. The Braves committed $112M to this year's payroll and have about $80M already committed to next year. With the extensions the Braves signed last season, the Braves cut into some of the big club of arbitration-eligible players, but the Braves still have starters Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, and Brandon Beachy eligible for arbitration next year along with relievers Jordan Walden and Jonny Venters, plus role players like Ramiro Pena, Jordan Schafer, and David Carpenter. How do you fit all of those guys and Lee into next year's roster?
Well, you don't. Some cuts will have to be made. If the Phillies added $8M to 2015 and $12.5M to Lee's buyout/option in 2016, the Braves would have about $10-$15M to spend on arbitration, plus auto-renewals if we believe that the payroll remains about the same in 2015. A guy like Medlen or Beachy would have to be shopped around. Signing Minor to a creative extension that lowers his 2015 salary would be useful as well. If the Braves wanted to make it happen, they definitely could.
It wouldn't be easy. But if you added Lee to the front-of-the-rotation with Julio Teheran, the Braves would take a very good rotation and turn it into an awesome one. In 2015, the Braves would still have Lee, Teheran, and Minor to go with Alex Wood and either Medlen or Beachy with David Hale in reserve.
I'm not saying DO IT!!!!! But...it's possible.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)