TOT - The OTHER Teixeira Deal

Chris J. Nelson (CC SA 3.0), via Wikipedia Commons

Transaction of Today...July 29, 2008 - The Atlanta Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Stephen Marek (minors) and Casey Kotchman.

It was the moment that the Braves resigned themselves to admit that their swing-for-the-fence effort the previous July failed. On this day nine years ago, the Braves sent the dynamic first baseman, Mark Teixeira, to the Angels for a pitifully small package of talent considering what they had themselves paid a year before. It would be one of the few and final mistakes for a general manager who tried desperately to squeeze one final contending effort from his squad. John Schuerholz, who will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame tomorrow, overestimated the need for the Atlanta Braves. Fortunately for Atlanta, he was right more times than he was wrong during his 15+ years at the helm.

Let's flash back to 2007 because we simply can't tell this story otherwise. On July 29th, the Braves beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 14-0 behind seven wonderful innings from Tim Hudson, homers by Andruw Jones and Scott Thorman, and a five-RBI day from Chipper Jones. Thorman and Chipper Jones were joined by Edgar Renteria and Kelly Johnson up the middle on the infield. Meanwhile, Andruw Jones was flanked by Jeff Francoeur and a productive platoon of Matt Diaz and Willie Harris in left. Add in Brian McCann behind the plate and the offense was pretty darn good. Well, with the exception of Thorman and Andruw, who again both hit homers that day. The centerfielder from Curacao was coming off a five-year sample where he slashed .266/.352/.524 with nearly 200 homers. This included his 2005 near-MVP season. However, things just never got going for Jones in '07 and he hit an abysmal .222/.311/.413. It would be the beginning of the end for him.

Meanwhile, Thorman was struggling after being handed first base following the trade of Adam LaRoche. He would hit just .216/.258/.394 during the season and worse, Craig Wilson had flamed out after being brought over from the Pirates to help. The Braves first tried to use Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a top prospect at catcher, to help fill in and by mid-July, they acquired the 48-years-young Julio Franco after the latter was cut by the Mets. None of these options were exciting.

Despite the holes at first base and center field, the Braves were 55-51 on the season and 4.5 games out of the division race and just a couple games behind the Dodgers for the NL Wild Card. John Schuerholz thought the Braves had one last run in them with the remaining core from those great Braves' teams that routinely ran away with the division crown. John Smoltz was 40, Chipper was 35, and Andruw was 30. This would be the final summer all three would be with the Braves.

So, Schuerholz pulled the trigger on July 31. With the young McCann in place, the Braves felt Saltalamacchia was blocked and better used as a trade piece. They then packaged Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, a pair of exciting prospects who were a few years away from contributing, with Matt Harrison, a southpaw close to the majors with a middle-of-the-rotation grade. When the Rangers waffled on Harrison's medical reports, Atlanta threw another prospect, Beau Jones, in the deal to smooth things over. Texas also added left-hander Ron Mahay in the deal to help out a Braves bullpen that had lost its best southpaw in Mike Gonzalez to injury.

The Braves also added relievers Octavio Dotel and Royce Ring that day in other trades. The focus was clear. With Teixeira added to an already impressive lineup and a shutdown bullpen that also had Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Bob Wickman, the Braves were betting on being able to outhit the other team and shut them down late. All of this effort was to mask what was the 2007 Braves' true problem - the starting rotation. In Hudson and Smoltz, the Braves had a pair of excellent pitchers who qualified for 51 quality starts between them. The rest of the team managed 30. The rest of the rotation read like a who's who of bad pitchers who have started for the Braves over the last decade - Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, Anthony Lerew, and Jeff Bennett. All of these pitchers had a FIP of 4.78 or better.

The 2007 Braves were the Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain of a new generation. But the Braves saw a way - a very narrow path, I grant you, but a way to the playoffs. However, the dream crashed quickly. During a damp night on August 2, Renteria went deep in the hole after a ball hit by Ty Wigginton and came up lame. The Braves, who had already used their two backup middle infielders in Yunel Escobar and Chris Woodward, were forced to move Chipper Jones to shortstop. Renteria had a sprained ankle. Luckily, the Braves had Escobar, who had been sharing time with Johnson at second. Still, the Braves needed everything to go right for Schuerholz's plan to work and Renteria going down wasn't going to help. Neither did losing Dotel, who pitched just nine times after the deal.

Atlanta pressed on, though. Before the arrival of their new teammates in Atlanta, the Braves blew out the Astros 12-4 on July 31 to improve to five games over .500. Atlanta actually did pretty well down the stretch, but bad luck and an offense that wasn't quite as dynamic as advertised led them to a 28-27 finish (despite the second-best run differential down the stretch in the NL). Schuerholz hung up his GM reigns and passed the responsibility of getting the Braves back to the playoffs to Frank Wren.

Wren completed a deal that first was brought up while Schuerholz was in charge, sending Renteria to Detroit for Jair Jurrjens. He added Josh Anderson, Will Ohman, Omar Infante, and Mark Kotsay as he navigated the little financial freedom he had with the needs of his team. He also approached Scott Boras and Teixeira about a new contract. Boras, notorious for pushing his players to hit the open market, helped to convince Teixeira to pass on the contract. It's not known what that deal may have been, but here's some context - Teixeira had declined a $140M, 8-year deal from the Rangers the previous spring.

Teixeira would continue to hit like Teixeira. Over 103 games to open the 2008 season, Teixeira hit .283/.390/.412 with 20 HR. But the 2008 Braves were hopeless. Francoeur fell on his face, but worse, the pitching staff was again a failure. Smoltz went down early and Hudson went down later that summer. While the rookie Jurrjens was impressive and the Braves unearthed some surprising contributions out of Jorge Campillo, the rest of the staff was just awful. With the bullpen managing to convert just 26 saves, the Braves limped to a 45-50 start at the break. Selling was a real possibility for a team that often was buying at the deadline.

After winning just four games of their first ten coming out of the All-Star Break, the Braves waved the white flag. The Angels came calling with an offer for Teixeira. They had failed to acquire the first baseman the previous summer but were now anxious to finally get their guy. They offered Casey Kotchman, but the Braves balked asking for top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart and a third player in addition to Kotchman. The Angels counted with Kotchman and a Double-A reliever, Stephen Marek, who wasn't one of their best prospects by a mile and waited for the Braves to blink. It was a buyer's market and they knew that. Ultimately, Wren couldn't get enough action from Arizona, Tampa Bay, Boston, or the big pockets of the Yankees and Dodgers, to acquire something better. He accepted the Angels' miserable offer.

Kotchman wasn't a terrible consolation prize, though. He had hit .296/.372/.467 the previous year, his first as a full-timer in the majors. He was also hitting .287/.327/.448 at the time of the trade and at 25 years-old, wasn't far removed from being a top prospect in all of baseball. His numbers with the Braves were never that good, though. He slashed .267/.346/.378 as a first baseman in the National League - which wasn't acceptable. The Braves continued their revolving door at first base by trading Kotchman the next trading deadline for Adam LaRoche, the guy whose original trade opened the door for Thorman, whose poor play prompted the trade for Teixeira in the first place.

Marek made it to Triple-A, but never appeared in the majors. His career was over after 2012.

Meanwhile, Teixeira would help the Angels get to the playoffs, where they would lose to the Red Sox in four games. He then signed for $40 million more than the Rangers had offered two years before when he joined the Yankees for an eight-year, $180M contract. The Angels made out okay, though. They offered Teixeira arbitration after the playoffs and after he signed with the Yankees, the compensation pick turned into the #25th overall pick of the 2009 draft. Which turned into Mike Trout. Which turned into the tears of Braves Country.

The second Teixeira deal is a tough one to swallow - both for the players the Braves surrendered to get him and the package they received. Nine years ago today, the Braves tried to get anything - anything at all - to soften the blow the pending loss of Teixeira would bring. Ultimately, it didn't do that. It just made it more clear how things went the wrong way from the moment Teixeira was acquired.

Braves Front Office Could Use Crash-Course in BABIP

(Ryan Cothran has joined the Walk-Off Walk team and I want to thank him for his contributions - both with this article and in the future. Be sure to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

It was a few days back when I dropped a tweet and, for a lack of a better term, received what seemed at the time, some scorn from someone I respect quite a bit.

First off, let’s get this out of the way.  Alan and I are former colleagues, respect each other, and message quite often about Braves news and such. He’s a big part of why I still want to write Braves material.  Furthermore, it turns out that Alan and I agree on many points regarding BABIP. His rant made quite a lot of sense and I suggest reading it over at Tomahawk Take to educate oneself on the matter.

One thing Alan and I might not agree on in regards to BABIP is that it’s a valuable statistic that the Braves have overlooked for YEARS and has caused many a headache for both fans and GMs alike.

What is BABIP? I’m glad you asked, and it’s quite simple really.  From Fangraphs:

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. A ball is “in play” when the plate appearance ends in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher's interference, sacrifice bunt, or home run.

Important Piece of BABIP: The basic MLB average of BABIP is .290-.300, but it's more complicated than that as players that use all parts of the field, top-tier speed guys, or even guys with a high hard contact rate can defy BABIP on a regular basis. On the contrary, heavy LHH pull-power hitters such as Brian McCann and Anthony Rizzo will carry BABIPs below the norm pretty regularly due to their hard contact being hit into the teeth of a shift and due to HRs not factored into BABIP. Now let's get back to the lecture at hand.

Chris Johnson, Jose Constanza, Jeff Francoeur, Emilio Bonifacio, Danny Santana, Chase d’Arnaud, and Pedro Ciriaco...some of these guys stories are quite different, some seem like clones, but all have a common denominator that’s earned them quite a chunk of change (over 30 million dollars collectively, but more importantly, roster spots over better players) from the Braves: a BABIP fluke.

To start this study off, we will take a look at Chris Johnson, who makes up most of the money in this study and his extension is one of the most notorious in Braves history. In this exercise, we will evaluate Chris Johnson and his 2012 without the Braves and his next 2 years with the Braves.

First, we all knew that CJ was a sub-optimal defender at 3rd and that any value he held was going to be held in his bat, but let's get the baseball cliches out of the way on CJ: He's a good line-drive hitter that uses all parts of the field and keeps fielders honest. He's also slow as molasses and needs this skill to stay relevant in baseball.

Now let's look at the juicy details from Fangraphs. Hard contact rate is being used extensively in baseball at this point and exit velocity is being shoved down our throats as the stat du jour. Here's CJ's results on his contact rates '12-'14.

2012: soft contact (14.4%) medium contact (54.8%) hard contact (30.7%)

2013: soft contact (14.0%) medium contact (56.0%) hard contact (30.0%)

2014: soft contact (14.5%) medium contact (59.0%) hard contact (26.5%)

Conclusion: '12 & '13 nearly identical in contact with '14 showing a drop in hard contact. Now, let's take a look at CJ's fWAR and BABIP each year:

2012: BABIP (.354) fWAR(1.0) 

2013: BABIP (.394) fWAR(2.5)

2014: BABIP (.345) fWAR(0.2)

In dissecting CJ, he was pretty doggone good at making the most out of his skill-set as his career BABIP is .353. This makes him an outlier for the BABIP stat, but his 2013 is an anomaly of an outlier. Unfortunately for the Braves, he was extended after his career year for 23.5 million and has had negative $ value since.

For Chris, the BABIP fluke was the gift that kept on giving for years and has set his family up for the long haul. For others, it’s extended their careers and unfortunately, it was mostly in a Braves uniform.

OOPS!  Your HIGH BABIPs went MISSING!

By Sgt. Anthony Hewitt [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

1. Jeff Francoeur received years of undeserved playing time from the Braves riding on the coat-tail of his hot start that was highly aided by a .452 BABIP his first month in the bigs. Braves weren’t the only ones that were fooled as he quickly donned the cover of Sports Illustrated, was deemed “The Natural,” and the question was posed, “Can anyone be this good?” The simple answer is Frenchy couldn’t.  His ‘07 year was quite good, but ‘08 through half of 2010 were absolute disasters. It took 2.5 straight years of well-below average production before Braves front office pulled the plug and traded him to the Muts for Ryan Church.

2. Jose Constanza was given starts over Jason Heyward due to his hot start that was seriously aided by a .403 BABIP his first 24 games. The Constanza love affair lasted 4 years and he collected .1 fWAR the rest of his Braves career after that hot start.

3. Pedro Ciriaco’s first 60 plate appearances were quite good as he posted a .768 OPS as a fill-in around the diamond and pinch hitter. The problem was that it was aided by a .375 BABIP and his production fell off a cliff after that, yet he still racked up plate appearances...91 of them with a putrid .535 OPS.

4. Chase d'Arnaud was given 170+ more plate appearances in 2016 due to the fluke that was 92 plate appearances of an .855 OPS seriously aided by a.426 BABIP. His last 170 PAs... .526 OPS.

5. If Emilio Bonifacio hadn't had a fluky .372 BABIP in his 3.0 fWAR career year with the Marlins (now has 3 consecutive years of -fWAR), would he still be a Major Leaguer wearing a Braves uniform? I know my answer...

6. If Danny Santana hadn’t had a fluky .405 BABIP in his 3.2 fWAR career year with the Indians (been worth -2 fWAR since), would he still be a Major Leaguer wearing a Braves uniform? I know my answer…

Current BABIP numbers for Braves players vs. career BABIP

Ender Inciarte: career: .320 current: .276

Conclusion: Ender’s career is young, but he’s fast and could benefit from his legs by some bunt hits. I’d expect an upturn in his BABIP, but wouldn’t expect the power he’s shown to continue. Therefore a mid-.700s OPS is a good bet.

Brandon Phillips: career: .296 current: .322

Conclusion: BP’s career numbers speaks more volume than his current BABIP.  I expect him to stay in the .700ish OPS range.

Freddie Freeman: career: .342 current: .347

Conclusion: I wouldn’t expect FF5 to keep up his current HR pace, but make no mistake I could see him keeping up his current BABIP numbers (or even surpass them) due to his hard contact rate.

Matt Kemp: career: .342 current: .381

Conclusion: Kemp has had one year where his BABIP sustained a .380 mark for the year and that was his MVP year. To think he can duplicate that doesn’t seem like a smart wager, but he’s carried a high BABIP for his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if the friendly confines of Suntrust Park aids his BABIP to keep it north of .350.

Nick Markakis: career: .317 current: .368 Conclusion: Nick’s power stroke hasn’t shown up yet, but he’s squaring up balls on the regular. I’d expect the BABIP to drop down into the .330s but come close to maintaining his overall slash-line.

Adonis Garcia: career:.294 current: .243

Conclusion: Adonis is getting a bit unlucky. His numbers should increase but hopefully it’s on the bench.,

Tyler Flowers: career: .329 current:.478 

Conclusion: T-Flow has been a tireless worker on his swing the past 2 years and has drunk himself full of Kevin Seitzer’s approach. His swing looks so short and structured right now that the ability to outperform a league average BABIP is a near given. With that in mind, there’s simply no way his current .478 BABIP is sustainable, however, I wouldn’t doubt that in a career year, T-Flow could push .400.  Expect his current BABIP to regress but still be well above league average.

Dansby Swanson: career: .301 current: .203

Conclusion: Dansby’s career is young and his contact hasn’t been great, but nothing is falling for him. His BABIP will improve and Braves fans will rejoice.

Kurt Suzuki: career: .273 current: .222

Conclusion: Suzuki is not a good hitter and hasn’t been for his career. However, he’s been unlucky and numbers should improve a bit.

Emilio Bonifacio: career: .328 current: .263

Conclusion: His BABIP will get better, but it’s not going to help him be a player worthy of a roster spot.

Danny Santana: career: .342 current: .211

Conclusion: Santana has speed and could be a decent bench piece were he not sitting alongside Bonifacio who is a future him. His numbers will get better but it’s not going to help the Braves bench as long as there are 2 of him.

Jace Peterson: career: .291 current: .300

Conclusion: It’s tough to watch Jace right now as I’ve long been a fan of his skillset, but his power just hasn’t developed and his hard contact is low. He could boost his BABIP by adding bunt hits, but hasn’t done that often yet. He likely sits as a mid-600s OPS guy with the ability to push it up in the .700s against RHP.

Final BABIP Cautionary Tale

There has never... in the history of baseball, been a player to collect a .400 BABIP when recording more than 1,000 plate appearances in a career. There are 4 guys in MLB that are currently in the top-20 for career BABIP (minimum 1,000 PAs). Those are:

Odubel Herrera (11th at .362)

Mike Trout (12th at .361)  

Christian Yelich (15th at .359)

Starling Marte (19th at 358). 

In my opinion, only 1 will remain from these 4 and we all know who that is...

Thanks for reading my first piece over at Walkoff Walk! And thanks to Tommy for allowing me to join him! I’ve long admired his work and consider it an honor to write alongside him.  Go Braves

#AskCoppy for February 24: Demeritte, SunTrust Park, Kemp, and more

One of the coolest things in baseball social media is #AskCoppy. If you've never heard of the hashtag, it refers to an hour or two where John Coppolella fields questions from Atlanta Braves fans. It's a fun way to get some insight into the mind of the Braves' general manager. Obviously, twitter limitations keep the responses to a minimal, but considering that Coppolella doesn't have to do this at all, we will take what we can get. Here are some of the highlights from yesterday's edition of #AskCoppy.

Jason Cleghorn asked: What do we know about how Suntrust might play?  Pitchers park, hitters, neutral? How strategic was the design? #askcoppy

Coppy's take: If you are a hitter it's a great hitter's park; if you are a pitcher it's a great pitcher's park -- jk -- will play similar to Turner Field

Kyle Hess/Beam/Atlanta Braves

Analysis: Nobody really knows how STP will play until we actually see it in action. That said, there are a few differences between STP and Turner Field that should be fun to watch. One of particular interest is right field, which I covered last year. Not only will the right field alley be 15 feet shorter than Turner Field, it'll include a 16-foot wall beginning in the alley and extending to the right field foul pole. Also, the wall will include 10 feet of padding and the rest will be exposed brick, which could be fun to watch to see how the ball caroms off the two different parts of the wall. The picture on the right is from October, but I feel it gives you kind of an overview.

Kacey Johnson asked: Is Travis Demeritte a potential long term answer at 3B? Also, thanks for being the coolest GM in MLB! #AskCoppy

Coppy's take: Thanks for the kind words!  Travis has looked awesome early in camp and we feel like he could play everyday @ number of spots

Analysis: "Number of spots" is very intriguing. While Demeritte has played shortstop and third base in the minors, 81% of the innings he has played in the field have been at second base. Typically, that means he doesn't have the range and/or arm to play elsewhere on the infield, but it's not always true. In fact, Demeritte has wonderful range. His arm is a bit more of a question mark, but could it be good enough to play third base? Quite possibly. In addition, Demeritte could see some outfield time if the Braves want to keep their options open.

Jason Reese asked: Any chance you sign Angel Pagan and/or Pedro Alvarez for bench or are you content to go with what you have? #askcoppy

Coppy's take: It wouldn't be right for me to drop names, but we are in contact with a couple of potential adds -- but would have to be NRI @ this time

Analysis: This is not too surprising. I've mentioned my fondness for Pagan before and the Braves have been linked to both Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur the past few weeks. While I would love a double signing of Pagan and KJ to fill out the bench, it seems like a pipedream as they try to wait out the market and get a better deal than the NRIs, or non-roster invitees, offers they have received to this point. Meanwhile, the Braves are ready to try to wait out the market and get the best possible deal.

Jesse Russell asked: what's the ceiling for Sean Newcomb? Can he be our "Jon Lester" in the rotation soon? #AskCoppy

Coppy's take: Sean has as much talent as any young pitcher we have, but we just want him to be @SeanNewk -- we love who he is and what he can be

Analysis: I was one of the few people this offseason who devoted a prospect list to the Braves' system and ranked Newcomb as high as I did (#2). I agree that Newcomb has as much talent as any other young pitcher in the system. In fact, from a ceiling standpoint, Newcomb has few peers. That said, he has a long way to reach that ceiling and it's fair to say that the likelihood is extraordinarily low that his career mimics that best-case scenario. Not sure I really see the Lester comp for Newcomb, though. An older, but possibly better comparison might be Sam McDowell. At his wildest, McDowell was dangerous. But once he was able to get his walks per nine inning under 5.0 in 1965, he became one of the game's finest pitchers for the next half-dozen years.

Kevin asked: the people need to know. Better band: Alice in Chains or Nirvana? #AskCoppy

Coppy's take: Blasphemy, I know -- but I LOVE AIC

Analysis: He's not wrong. I'll even go further. Pearl Jam is better than both. Oh, and Foo Fighters are better than all of them. Don't @ me.

Joe Lucia asked: how would you rate Matt Kemp's fitness this spring?

Coppy's take: Matt has been tremendous on our club, in great shape & working hard.  Great person beloved by teammates.  We are lucky to have him.

Curtis Compton/AJC

Analysis: One of the most talked about and covered subjects this spring has been Kemp's efforts to get his career - and specifically his work ethic - back on track. Soon after acquiring the former All-Star, Coppolella mentioned in an interview to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that, "He’s 31-years old. He is not in shape and that’s something we need to work on with him. He’s been told about it. We are going to talk to him more. It’s the kind of thing where, for him, you can’t really do that during the season. It’s not like you can drop 30 pounds during the season and keep playing.” It was a frank assessment of Kemp and one that had all the potential in the world to backfire. However, it appears to have worked out wonderfully as the picture on the right, courtesy of the AJC, shows. While it is too much to expect Kemp to return to his near 40-40 days of 2011, if the work he put in this offseason turns into big results at the plate and in the field, Kemp could not only be an x-factor for the 2017 season, but a marketable asset should the Braves try to move him.

Dan Horton asked: What did you like about Sanders Commings that made you want to give him a shot? #AskCoppy

Coppy's take: Terrific talent & even better person.  Totally committed to baseball & willing to work.  You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

Andy Sadler asked: what's the plan with Sanders Commings? What level might he start at and what position will he play?

Coppy's take: No plan.  Come in & see how he performs.  He could go to 2A or he could begin in extended ST.  It's about whatever is best for the player.

Analysis: If you missed the news this week, the Braves signed Sanders Commings, a former University of Georgia defensive back who was selected with the first pick of the 2013 fifth round - right ahead of Denard Robinson. Commings, who didn't play baseball in college, made it on the field for two games his rookie year, but injuries hounded him during his 2+ years with the Kansas City Chiefs before they ultimately waived him before the '15 season. Now, Commings will give a baseball career a chance. During his senior year of high school, he hit .520 with 15 homers, which prompted the Diamondbacks to select him in the 37th round. To say the least, this will be much less of a media circus than the Tim Tebow experiment.

Mdubs8 asked: do you believe you were close to acquiring an ace at any point this winter? #AskCoppy

Coppy's take: Not really.  We flirted, but nothing even resembling a hookup and certainly not marriage.

Analysis: Some good insight here. The Braves were linked to - at different times - Chris Sale, Chris Archer, and Jose Quintana this offseason. From a logical standpoint, it did not make a lot of sense. While adding an "ace" seems like a no-brainer, there were financial concerns with adding much more salary to the rotation. Further, while there is good reason to be optimistic this year, there are some questions that need to be answered to know if the window to compete has been thrown open. Of course, the Braves did their due diligence, but the price it took to trade for Sale was way over what they felt comfortable with.

Noah Goodman asked: #AskCoppy how do you feel about Jesse Biddle?

Coppy's take: Jesse has been tremendous early in camp -- kudos to Billy Ryan & Matt Grabowski & our entire front office -- look for big things in '17

Analysis: In a shrewd move, the Atlanta Braves grabbed Biddle last spring off waivers and stashed him away as he rehabbed from injury - similar to what they are doing this year with Jacob Lindgren. Now, the Braves are looking to take advantage of that move by adding Biddle to the mix. I believe he's destined for Gwinnett to at least start 2017, but Biddle was once a top prospect who could still pan out for the Braves. For more on Biddle, here is my scouting report.

Gil Elliott asked: #AskCoppy: Do you agree a lot of stolen bases are really on the pitcher but the catchers bear the brunt of the blame?

Coppy's take: Yes -- I think it's like 75-25 -- great point

Analysis: If you were wondering why the Braves did not feel pushed to improve their starting catcher situation beyond Tyler Flowers, this might help explain it. While Flowers had a terrible season throwing out runners (3-of-63), the Braves were willing to look past that because of the other things he brought to the table (pitch framing, a good year with the bat). While the Braves certainly flirted with Jason Castro, they ultimately did little but add a veteran backup to the mix in Kurt Suzuki. Many fans that look at traditional catcher defensive stats won't consider Flowers a competent catcher. The Braves realize that he's not the biggest person responsible for stolen bases.

Chris Jervis asked: How much do #Braves value pitch framing & game calling? Flowers has been very good w/ these, even if more 'traditional' areas lag.

Coppy's take: It depends who you ask in our front office -- we argue about it a lot, but it's healthy discussions that make us better

Analysis: Interesting answer to a good question. All winter, we heard that the Braves were valuing pitch framing more than previous years. In the end, they added Suzuki, who has not graded positively based on publicly available pitch-framing metrics (the Braves may have their own they use). Based on the answer, you might think that Coppy isn't thoroughly convinced that pitch framing is very important, but the pursuit of Castro says otherwise. I would love to be a fly on the wall as they debate the merits of pitch calling. By the way, remember to follow Jervis over at outfieldflyrule.com.

Easy D asked: #AskCoppy Most smart people agree that Parks & Recreation is watchable, but not really great. Agreed?

Coppy's take: Thought it was pretty funny -- not Workaholics funny, but pretty good

Analysis: I can only assume Coppy was being nice here. "Most smart people?" Parks & Rec was one of the best shows of the last 15 years. Yeah, I said it. I challenge you to watch this and not agree that Parks & Rec is truly great.

Nolan Ryan Alexander asked: What does Adam Brett Walker add to the system? Where do you see him fitting in? @braves #AskCoppy

Coppy's take: Power!  May have the best raw power in baseball and he has a chance to help us at MLB level depending on his development.

Analysis: So, I think I may have a name and face to an anonymous account that has talked up Walker both before and after the Braves acquired him. I only suggest that because of the full "Adam Brett Walker" reference. To be honest, because I allow anonymous commentators, it could have been more than one person. Either way, Adam Walker has power as Coppy suggests - a lot of it. The question is can he develop enough while already in his mid-20's to translate his big power into results at the major league level.

Some lasting thoughts...Coppy said Johan Camargo has opened some eyes early this spring. Camargo has never had much of a bat, but has flashed a good glove. He was a bit of a surprise addition to the 40-man this winter and if Coppy's love for him says anything, he's likely to stay for a little while...Coppy also mentioned that SunTrust Park and the surrounding buildings and facilities could be a selling point with free agents next winter as they try to show them around all of the fun things the area has to offer....He thinks Luke Jackson will play a factor for this year's squad. I agree....Rio Ruiz continues to work to improve his body and has been impressive so far.

Should the Braves Bring Back Kelly Johnson and/or Jeff Francoeur?

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

It seems inevitable.

Maybe it shouldn't, but it really does seem like only a matter of time.

It is so expected that should the Atlanta Braves sign either Kelly Johnson or Jeff Francoeur over the next few days, it would surprise no one. The Braves have proven that when it comes to depth, they like to go to players they are comfortable with. Both Johnson and Francoeur were brought back last year and given a chance to win a job on their bench, which both did. For Johnson, it was actually the second time he re-Braved. Eric O'Flaherty, Emilio Bonifacio, and Kris Medlen are a few other players brought back for this year's roster that could eventually play for Atlanta in 2017. With the bench wide-open, why not Johnson? Why not Francoeur? Why not both?

Let's see if either, or both, are good fits for the Braves in 2017.

As I previously went over in a spring training battles preview for the bullpen, the Braves appear convinced to give the eight-man bullpen experiment a shot. I don't like the idea for an NL team that must utilize its bench on a nightly basis. Last season, the Braves did not use their bench nine times and six came in AL parks. That leaves just three times when the Braves did not use their bench for a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive replacement when they didn't have the aid of the DH. It's a rarity that a manager won't have to go to the bench two-or-three times under traditional National League rules. Yet, the Braves want to limit the bench to four players, which includes a backup catcher that managers will be apprehensive about using in case a catcher is needed later in the game.

Where does that leave the bench? Well, right now, we have a good idea about half of it. Kurt Suzuki was given a one-year, $1.5 million contract last month to support Tyler Flowers. While Anthony Recker will be given a chance to unseat Suzuki, there is a high probability that short of an injury, Flowers will be in the starting lineup on opening day with Suzuki on the bench. The other fairly known player in the mix is Jace Peterson. After 214 starts at second base the last two years, plus 13 additional starts at third base, left field, and center field, Peterson looks destined for the utility bench role many felt he would be best suited for as a prospect. With Sean Rodriguez out for potentially the whole season, Peterson will be asked to do much of what they expected out of Rodriguez, minus the lefty-bashing bat, as the newly acquired Brandon Phillips takes over at second base.

Plenty of other names are in the mix, including the aforementioned Bonifacio, Micah Johnson, Chase D'Arnaud, and Rio Ruiz. Would adding Johnson or Francoeur be an improvement?

Let's look at what each player brings the Braves. Kelly Johnson's third go-around with the Braves was brief. He played in just 49 games with Atlanta before being traded for the second consecutive season to the Mets. All in all, it was a down year for Johnson after a bit of a surprise resurgence in 2015. That year, he hit .265/.314/.435 with most of his best work coming before his July trade to New York. Last year, his numbers fell across the board, though this time, his numbers dramatically improved after joining the Mets. Throughout his career, the left-hand hitting Johnson has shown little preference between left-handed and right-handed pitchers with a slight edge in favor of facing southpaws.

By Sgt. Anthony Hewitt [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Francoeur was included in a late season trade to the Marlins. After playing in 100 games for the first time in three years with the Phils in 2015, Francoeur joined the Braves last year - seven years after the disappointing end to his run with Atlanta that included epic highs and massive lows. Francoeur hit just .249/.290/.381 before his trade and hit better, though with no power, with the Marlins. On the season, he had a .254/.297/.378 slash. Where he did shine, somewhat, was against left-handed pitching. His OPS saw a 90-point improvement when he had the platoon advantage. That's pretty close to his career marks, though it should be said that his .253/.293/.402 lifetime slash against right-handers makes his value limited.

Beyond the differences at the plate, what truly separates these players is defensive flexibility. The only time Francoeur has ventured away from the outfield was for a two-inning stint on the mound in 2015 and a one-inning fill-in job with the Marlins on the season's final day - a game former Braves player Martin Prado managed. Meanwhile, Johnson has played six different positions, including each position on the infield and both corner outfield positions.

If the Braves were to sign one, the final position on the bench would also be directly impacted. If the Braves signed Francoeur, it would improve D'Arnaud's position as the Braves might be more apt to keep a player with a wealth of experience at shortstop. Signing Johnson may also force that, though Peterson was a shortstop until 2014 and Johnson has made cameos at shortstop with the Mets the last two years. Neither should get much time there, but their experience may be enough to prompt the Braves into rolling the dice and only bringing up a shortstop if Dansby Swanson were to miss time.

If it were me, I'd consider Johnson because he can provide more support at multiple positions. That said, having both Johnson and Peterson could be considered redundant, though Johnson's success against lefthanders helps to differentiate himself from Peterson. As for Francoeur, you might be able to argue that he would be a decent pickup if you felt he could play all three outfield spots and possibly first base. The last time he ventured into center field was 2014 for four innings in Triple-A and he's never played first base. His bat would have to be his saving grace and we are talking about a guy who has slashed .237/.279/.372 over his last 1561 PA (five years). Again, you might say "But we need a right-handed bat off the bench for late inning lefthanders." Here's where I say "don't confuse Francoeur with Matt Diaz." If you recall, Diaz was the definition of a platoon-hitting right-handed batter who bashed lefties. Remember that five year sample I referenced a couple of sentences back? Francoeur has slashed .240/.292/.363 against southpaws since 2012. That comes out to a 73 wRC+. While his career numbers, and especially last year, are more slanted to a guy who hits lefties noticeably better, he's still only an average bat career-wise against lefties (101 wRC+). Kelly Johnson carries a 103 wRC+ against lefties and is not inept against righties (101 wRC+).

With that in mind, if I'm the Braves, I'm definitely trying to bring back Johnson. And bonus, you can trade him to the Mets again. Win-win.

What say you? Johnson? Francoeur? Both? Neither?

Send Me An Angel

By Eltiempo10 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

Was that title enough of an earworm or is it too obscure? If so, I'm perhaps older than I thought.

The Atlanta Braves have more depth heading into 2017 than they did in either of the last two seasons, but the bench still needs work. The addition of Sean Rodriguez definitely helps as it likely means either Rodriguez or Jace Peterson will be on the bench on most days and both are borderline major league starters. But outside of either one of those players, what will this bench look like?

Chase D'Arnaud will be around, but do the Braves really want to depend too much on a player with a sub-.600 OPS in the majors? Kurt Suzuki will take up a spot as well, though he's hardly much of a threat with the bat. With that in mind, the Braves could use some extra offense. Depending on whether they go with an eight-man bullpen or not - and I hope the latter - the Braves still head into spring training with at least a spot open for grabs and as many as three.

A potential platoon of Rio Ruiz/Adonis Garcia could man one of those spots, though their lack of versatility could make that option a little less desirable for the Braves especially if they are going with a four-man bench. Atlanta has also apparently flirted with the idea of bringing back Jeff Francoeur and/or Kelly Johnson, but even if they did that, there are still questions about this bench that need to be addressed. Of the players I've already mentioned, only D'Arnaud has played a passable shortstop in the majors, which only helps his case and hurts the offensive potential of this bench. Furthermore, who is second on the depth chart to play center field?

Right now, probably Rodriguez. And why not? He's played nearly 60 innings in center during his career. Clearly, he can handle the position for a few days, right? And if not, there's always Peterson. He slammed into a wall last year after all. That's about all I have to say about that.

Listen, I love Ender Inciarte, but he's hit the DL in each of the last three years. That's too short of a sample size to say he's likely to do it again in 2017, but the trends certainly aren't in his favor. If such an event happens - and hopefully it's only for a couple of weeks if it does - who plays center field? Would you believe the choice might be Emilio Bonifacio or Mel Rojas Jr.? Not excited about that? Well, there's also Xavier Avery. Who? I'll give you a minute or two to read this quick introduction I wrote on Avery a few weeks ago when the Braves added him. I'll wait.

Done? Maybe Rojas or Avery satisfies you as a deep depth option. Maybe Bonifacio isn't that bad (he is). Maybe you think Inciarte will stay healthy all season. But, if you're like me, you'd like a bit more depth. The kind of depth the Braves had before they traded away Mallex Smith.

Back to the title of this post. Real Life's "Send Me An Angel" was a fun 80's hit about asking the heavens for love.  In this case, all I want is a fourth outfielder. Regardless, John Coppolella, send me an Angel............Pagan. Also, if that's not his walk-up music, someone really failed at their job.

Angel Pagan won't make the Braves winners in 2017, but he will make them a little better. Since his last big season in 2012, he's been between a 1.4 and 2.1 fWAR player in three of the last four years. To put that into context, in the last four seasons, Nick Markakis has been worth 4.9 fWAR and Matt Kemp has been worth 2.1 fWAR. Same time frame, Pagan has been a 4.5 fWAR player. By the way, he'll be paid a fraction of the cost as those other two.

To be fair, injuries have sapped Pagan of much of his speed that made him a yearly 30-steal threat. With that said, he still swiped 15 bases last year, one fewer than Inciarte and Smith, who led the Braves. Pagan's also been much healthier of late, having posted back-to-back 500+ PA campaigns after failing to do so in the two seasons prior. Pagan also has been successful throughout his career with the bat compared to his center field peers. He finished last year with a .324 wOBA (vs. .322 career) and 105 wRC+ (vs. 103 career). Though 35 years-old, nothing in his numbers would seem to make one believe that a decline was imminent.

I should also mention that as a switch-hitter, Pagan is a perfect fourth outfielder. He gives his manager flexibility to try to schedule off days for Markakis and Inciarte against tougher left-handers and give Kemp a day off against a nasty righty.

To be fair a second time, Pagan's defense in center field has deteriorated along with his speed. Outside of 2011, the defensive metrics have never loved Pagan's D to begin with and it's only gotten worse. If the Braves need him to play much longer than a few weeks in center field, they are probably asking for too much. Pagan played a lot of left field last year and the metrics agreed that it was a good move for him. That would give the Braves a late-inning defensive caddy for Kemp who won't be completely inept with the bat should he need to hit.

Pagan could be an outstanding addition for the Braves if the money is good and presumably, at this point, it seems unlikely he'll demand more than an incentive-rich one-year deal with a low base salary. So, I ask you again, John Coppolella. Send not only me, but the Braves an Angel. It's just too good of a fit.

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #2

On this 2016 Draft Eve, here is my pick for the second best draft since 2000.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

2nd Best Draft Since 2000 - The 2002 Draft

Keith Allison via Flickr (No Changes)
(Creative Commons)

It was a perfect storm for the Braves. Two years before, they had added a lot of talent to the system, but were still short on real prospects. While they would win a NL East Title in 2002, the cracks began to show as they won just 88 games. That would actually help the Braves as it gave them a higher draft choice than they were used to getting during The Streak with the #23rd overall pick. They would add a supplemental first (#34th) and an extra second round pick (#65) after Steve Karsay signed with the Yankees.

The table was set for a big haul and the Braves had their eyes firmly set on one player - Parkview High School two-sport, do-everything, superstud Jeff Francoeur. But would he be there when they selected in the first round for the first time at #23? Previously, I went over how the Braves may have muddied the waters when it came to Jason Heyward. The Braves and especially their scouting director Roy Clark had been tied to some accusations of dirty play beyond that. They were blamed for bad medical reports related to Adam Wainwright before the 2000 draft. They were also possibly responsible for a fax that suggested Francoeur wanted a $4M bonus.

Whether any of that is true, Francoeur made it clear to other teams that he had three options in the draft. Either the Atlanta Braves drafted him or he received a "significant amount of money" to sign with whoever picked him. Or, and this certainly was a possibility, he could head to Clemson University, where he had signed a letter of intent to play defensive back. Francoeur was expected to be a standout as a college safety - something not lost on Bobby Bowden or his son, Tommy Bowden. One story involved the latter being at Francoeur's home on a recruiting trip. The elder Bowden called Francoeur, which prompted Tommy to take the phone and kindly tell his dad to get off the line while he was on a recruiting visit.

Teams ahead of the Braves had Francoeur higher on their Big Boards based on talent, but he dropped due to the demands Francoeur would have to sign. He never did get that $4M, regardless if it ever was one of his demands, but after Atlanta selected the outfielder and convinced him to give up football, he received $2.2M and the Braves' 2002 draft was off.

Up next, with the #34th pick, was James Madison University southpaw, Dan Meyer. A standout college pitcher for the Dukes, he was the first college arm selected by the Braves in the first round since 1987 when the Braves tabbed Derek Lilliquist as the sixth overall selection. Thirty picks later, the Braves again chose a prep star from their own backyard, Duluth High School catcher, Brian McCann. While he lacked Francoeur's infectious smile, he was left-handed catcher with power. McCann had been playing baseball with-and-against Francoeur since the two became teenagers. Now, they would become roommates.

The next pick of the draft was Atlanta's extra second-round pick courtesy of the Yankees. It would ultimately be wasted on shortstop Tyler Greene. An athletic shortstop with power, Greene passed on the Braves, but liked the area enough to attended Georgia Tech. Right-hander Charlie Morton out of a high school in Connecticut, was selected next. Morton, like Meyer, would be used in big trades.

Sad to say, but the rest of the draft produced very little. Long-time followers of the Braves' minor league system might recognize the names of Steve Russell (4th), J.J. Jurries (6th), and Wes Timmons (12th), but the latter two failed to progress beyond Triple-A while Russell was cut after five years in the system. Shortstop Jon Schuerholz out of Auburn would be lambasted as a sign of nepotism after the Braves spent an 8th round selection on him.

The Braves would get a hit on 20th rounder Chuck James out of Chattahoochee Valley Community College. It's difficult to get much value out of the 20th round, so the 64 games and 55 starts they received from James constitutes a hit in my mind. His metrics were never that good and after a fun retelling of Chuck Norris jokes with James in the latter's place, he wore out his welcome with the Braves. Nevertheless, he was the Braves' #3 pitcher in 2006 and '07.

For all of the hype surrounding Francoeur, this draft would ultimately be known as the year the Braves finally picked a catcher in the draft who turned into a star. In the previous ten drafts, Atlanta had spent eleven picks on catchers. Some didn't sign, but those that did gave the Braves precious little. You have to go back to 1989's draft choice of Tyler Houston, which was a bust, to find a catcher the Braves drafted and developed into a major leaguer for more than a cup of coffee. Of course, the Braves had more luck internationally, but catcher was a position that year-after-year was draped in failure. McCann gave the Braves not only success from the draft, but one of the best catchers in baseball for 8.5 years.

While 2002's draft could have certainly been better, grabbing a guy who may have a borderline Hall of Fame career when it's all said and done is a big get.

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #3

Halfway home in this series as I alternate back to the "Best" side with a draft that produced just two established major leagues so far, but their impact on the Braves is significant.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

3rd Best Draft Since 2000 - The 2007 Draft

Credit: Tommy Poe / Freeman and Heyward with
Myrtle Beach in 2009

At first glance, 2007 was a win - but it could have been so much more. Questionable picks after the second round kept this draft from being more than it could have been. Fortunately, two stars were acquired early on to make this draft a major asset for the Braves.

The season of 2006 was a massively disappointing year for the organization. One year after graduating a host of youngsters known as the Baby Braves to the majors, Atlanta struggled to stay within striking distance of the New York Mets, who ran away with the NL East title. Atlanta was meandering through the season until June hit. That month, they would flat-line into a 6-21 run that the Braves could not recover from. The big problem was that the rotation - long a strength for the Braves. It didn't help that Chris Reitsma was blowing games left-and-right, not that Jorge Sosa couldn't harness whatever made him a decent pitcher for the '05 team.

The only thing positive to come from the 2006 season was that the 79-83 season gave way to the #14th overall pick of the '06 draft. That wasn't all as the defection of Danys Baez (remember him?) gave the Braves a supplemental first round choice (#33rd) and the Orioles' second rounder (#69 overall). Atlanta also had their second rounder, the 78th overall, inside the Top 100. The scene was set for a big draft haul.

The stars aligned in another way. The Atlanta Braves were desperate to draft Jason Heyward, a potential franchise keystone. However, would he be available at #14? Baseball America had ranked him the ninth best prospect heading into 2007 and remarked that no one had a bigger upside. Of course, Atlanta has never been shy about finding some less-than-honorable ways to open the doors to acquire the local talent they want. Allegedly, that is. Atlanta put up a smokescreen to avoid looking too interested in Heyward, least they tip their hand. Working in the Braves' favor was Heyward's reputation as a fearsome hitter to gameplan around. While the Braves had been scouting him since he was 11 and kept an eye on him in summer league games where he would use a wooden bat, other teams focused on his high school games. Pitchers were afraid to throw to him and Heyward, as we would later learn, was a patient hitter.

But still, the Braves needed luck. Ed Creech, the Pirates scouting director and Georgian native, passed on him. The Rockies, Nationals, and Indians also passed on him - due in no small part to not seeing him swing the bat enough. However, one team was very interested and picked two picks in front of the Braves. The then-Florida Marlins area scout, Brian Bridges, compared Heyward's swing to Willie McCovey and told anyone who would listen that Heyward was the real deal. In a private workout with the Marlins, Heyward belted homers on half of the 60 pitches he saw. But the Marlins, citing Heyward's signability, went with 3B Matt Dominguez and then paid him $100K more than Heyward got. Bridges felt the Marlins were using Dominguez's position as the deciding factor, believing it would be easier to find a right fielder than a third baseman. In their defense, 64 picks later, they took Giancarlo Stanton.

Atlanta's war room went crazy and suddenly, the road was clear for them to draft Heyward. Bridges would be hired away from the Marlins to help sign Heyward. But Atlanta was far from being done. They had 49 more draft selections. Their next two were used on a high school third baseman, Jon Gilmore, and right-hander Josh Fields out of the University of Georgia. Nine picks later, they drafted lanky Freddie Freeman out of El Modena High School in Orange, CA. Their next eleven picks were a mixture of junior college and four-year guys like Brandon Hicks, Cory Gearrin, Travis Jones, Michael Fisher, and "pitcher" Brandon Belt. The last name wouldn't sign. Neither would Fields. Fifth-round selection Dennis Dixon out of the University of Oregon did sign, but played just one summer before returning to college to start at QB for the Oregon Ducks.

Righties Caleb Brewer and Paul Demny (who didn't sign) represented the first two high schoolers taken after the rush of college players, but Atlanta would head back to college-age guys in the 16th through 21st rounds. Some interesting names from the remainder of the draft include C.J. Lee in the 20th round, Benino Pruneda in the 31st, and a pair of players in the 27th and 33rd rounds who would both be drafted again the following season (Adam Milligan and Craig Kimbrel).

The draft would be known for Heyward and Freeman. Each would climb up the ladder and become good friends with a bromance reminiscent of Jeff Francoeur and Brain McCann a few years before. Gilmore would be used by the Braves to acquire Javier Vazquez from the White Sox in the winter of 2008-09. Hicks and Gearrin would both get to the majors with Gearrin following Hicks' footsteps by becoming a semi-established player for the Giants. But the Braves weren't able to develop anymore of the players. While three (Fields, Belt, and 24th rounder Mitch Harris) would all make it to the majors, it was only after re-entering the draft and getting selected by a different team. Of course, the relationship with Kimbrel would become very fruitful.

Pruneda and Fisher both flashed big potential at times, but neither saw their careers progress to AAA with the Braves. Fisher's career is over, but Pruneda continues to try to harness some filthy stuff and recently made his Triple-A debut with the Royals' organization.

This draft really only developed two great players, but their greatness helps push this draft into my Top 5. Heyward gave the Braves five good seasons once he made it to the majors before being traded to the Cardinals. If you add Shelby Miller's deal, the Braves effectively 24.6 WAR from Heyward plus Tyrell Jenkins, Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, and Dansby Swanson. Really shines up this draft even if the Braves may have tried to be sneaky as possible to get Heyward.